Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2025
For historical reference TM2024 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?q=1&;page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah
I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.
So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power
Globalism / Great Reset –
A powerful but little-known UN agency is quietly plotting to impose global taxes on international maritime shipping under the guise of fighting CO2 emissions and “climate change.” Americans are expected to pay the bulk of the financial costs. But all of humanity will bear the brunt of an empowered UN.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) scheme to tax shipping, originally backed by the Biden administration, would give the UN unprecedented power to raise money on its own. It will also lead to soaring costs for U.S. consumers while transforming the nature of the UN forever.
There are several more rounds of negotiations to be finalized. But if all goes according to plan, the UN could be vacuuming up billions of dollars each week by 2027.
The taxation plot comes as the UN’s “World Court,” known officially as the International Court of Justice (ICJ), is preparing to rule on the supposed “legal obligations” of governments with respect to “climate change.” UN officials are calling the case the most important in history.
OBSERVATION - The article notes, the UN’s inability to tax has been a major check on its power to control the world, and efforts have been ongoing over the past decade for them to weasel something in, to put the nose of the camel under the tent, so to speak.
***
The British government plans to approve experiments that seek ways to dim sunlight and deflect it away from the Earth in an effort to tackle so-called “runaway climate change.”
The new plan comes with a host of possible climate control options pending government approval, The Telegraph reported.
These options include injecting aerosols into the atmosphere and brightening clouds to reflect sunlight back into space.
ARIA, the government’s Advanced Research and Invention Agency, has £50 million set aside for projects, which will be announced in the coming weeks.
OBSERVATION - The level of stupid is incredible in this approach. What is absent is the FACT that plants - ie food - will be very negatively impacted. Or perhaps the loss of food production is a desired byproduct of the experiment as well, given the globalists dream of reducing the global population by billions.
Taking a hint from history, the year 1816 is known as the Year Without a Summer because of severe climate abnormalities that caused average global temperatures to decrease by 0.4–0.7 °C. Summer temperatures in Europe were the coldest of any on record between 1766 and 2000, resulting in crop failures and major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere. Evidence suggests that the anomaly was predominantly a volcanic winter event caused by the massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in April in modern-day Indonesia.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated Jan 19, 2025
May Day - May 1st
With the weekend approaching, there continue to be minor protests covering a wide range of grievances across the country. As in the past, there is no evidence of significant violence or vandalism, though localized incidents can occur. Be situationally aware.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
(FO) DOJ INDICTS FIRST TDA LEADER ON TERRORISM CHARGES: The Department of Justice (DOJ) unsealed charges against a high-ranking Tren de Aragua (TdA) member, including conspiracy to provide material support to a designated foreign terrorist organization.
An Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) official said the FBI assessed that Venezuelan government officials will likely leverage TdA contacts in the U.S. to threaten, abduct, or kill Venezuelan nationals critical of the Venezuelan government in the next six to 18 months.
Illegal Immigration –
On Monday, DOJ officials unsealed indictments against 27 current or former members of the Tren de Aragua (TdA) gang. Officials report that 21 of the 27 indicted gang members are currently in federal custody.
‘As alleged, Tren de Aragua is not just a street gang - it is a highly structured terrorist organization that has destroyed American families with brutal violence, engaged in human trafficking, and spread deadly drugs through our communities,’ U.S. Attorney General Pamela Bondi said in a written statement. ‘Today’s indictments and arrests span three states and will devastate TdA’s infrastructure as we work to completely dismantle and purge this organization from our country.’
The RICO charge allows the feds to treat the gang as a high-level racketeering organization. Instead of merely pursuing individuals (often low-level lackeys), it can target and dismantle the gang itself by freezing leaders’ assets and charging anyone connected to the gang’s activities.
https://notthebee.com/article/the-doj-is-pursuing-rico-charges-against-venezuelan-tda-members
OBSERVATION - Pending the flood of hand wringing leftist lawyers in 3……2……1…..
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Russia’s Shoigu claims EU peacekeepers in Ukraine could trigger World War III—and calls Ukraine “our historical territory.”
Russia wants full control over Ukraine, no interference from Europe, and a clear path to rearm and try again.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
The Kremlin appears to be increasingly concerned with the Russian military’s ability to retain forces in the event of demobilization following a ceasefire or a negotiated peace.
Russian milbloggers expressed doubts that the Russian MoD will be able to retain the current size of the Russian military if the Russian MoD does not promise — and honor — increased financial benefits.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 80s with cooling trend towards the end of the period..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched a massive combined air attack on Ukraine using drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles. Kyiv faced one of the largest attacks to date: 10 killed, over 100 injured, homes and cars on fire. A North Korean KN-23 ballistic missile reportedly struck a residential building in Sviatoshynskyi district. Kharkiv, Zhytomyr, and Pavlohrad were also hit.
Shot down:
7/11 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
31/37 Kh-101 cruise missiles
0/6 Iskander-K cruise missiles
6/12 Kalibr cruise missiles
4/4 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles
132/145 Shahed drones (64 shot down, 68 lost in location)
Kyiv was hit hard by the combination of missiles and drones.
Kharkiv was hit with 14 drone strikes and 10 missiles, according to Mayor Terekhov. Industrial sites were damaged, along with apartment buildings, a clinic, a school, and a hotel complex.
Kh-101/Kh-55 cruise missile launches were detected from Russian Tu-95MS “Bear” long-range strategic bombers over the Saratov Oblast of Southwestern Russia, while 3M54-1 “Kalibr” cruise missile launches were detected from Russian naval ships in the Black Sea
Russian losses per 24/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1080 men
+3 tanks
+5 AFVs
+49 artillery
+1 MLRS
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Bohdanivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Summary —
Overnight was one of the largest missile / drone attacks on Ukraine since the start of the war. Important to note that Russia risked deploying missile vessels into the Black Sea in substantial force in well over a year, challenging Ukraine’s control and neutering of the Black Sea fleet. Uncertain if this level of attack was in retribution to Ukraines destruction of the 51st GRAU arsenal, but is certainly fits into the recent attacks designed to bring terror to civilians and attempt to demoralize the nation in the face of US reluctance to continue support to Ukraine’s war efforts and bolster Russia’s effort to rekindle offensive actions at the front.
Speaking of the front, Russian losses suggest action continued to be generally moderate. Ukraine though continued to report moderately high numbers of ground attacks - though these attacks are not broken out by size of the attack and in many cases reflect small, company size or smaller assaults.
Russia continues to masterfully pull the strings of Europe and the US in causing dissension and confusion in support of Ukraine. Not since the beginning of the war has Russia been able to maintain such a large initiative to control the information battlefield.
Ukraine’s refusal to accept any ceding of Crimea to Russia may move them closer to attempting to destroy the Kerch Bridge. Such an action may well generate another massive attack by Russia, but more so, seriously hurt it economically and militarily as they would struggle to supply the basic needs of citizens in Crimea as well as get war supplies to the southern front. Recent Ukraine reported Ukraine strikes may be targeting Russian air defense radars and systems again, making the bridge vulnerable. Last nights attack may also give Ukraine more leverage to get their hands on the German heavy cruise missiles that have the punch to take the bridge out.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025
PM Narendra Modi has said India will punish “every terrorist and their backers” following an attack that killed 26 people in Indian-administered Kashmir The country has closed its main border crossing with Pakistan, expelled its military diplomats and suspended a landmark water-sharing treaty - Pakistan has denied involvement in the attack
There’s been no official confirmation yet on who carried out the atrocity but some media reports say an offshoot of Pakistan-based militant group Lashkar-e-Taiba may have claimed responsibility
Kashmir, which is claimed by both India and Pakistan in its entirety, has been a flashpoint for decades. Indian-administered Kashmir has seen a decades-long insurgency which has claimed thousands of lives - but attacks on tourists have been rare
***
Measures India announced against Pakistan.
- Suspension of the landmark Indus Waters Treaty which allowed for the sharing of river waters between the neighbours
- Shutting of a key border crossing with Pakistan that allowed for the movement of people and goods
- Suspension of all visa services for Pakistani nationals
- Declaring military advisers in the Pakistani high commission in Delhi as ‘persona non grata’, ordering them to leave within a week
- Reducing the number of Pakistani diplomats in India to 30 from 55 from 1 May.
In response, Pakistan has hit back with an almost identical set of reciprocal measures against Delhi:
- Rejection of India’s suspension of the water treaty, saying any attempt to stop or divert the water “will be considered as an Act of War”
- Suspension of all visas issued to Indian nationals under an exemption scheme with immediate effect
- Suspension of all bilateral agreements with India
- Reduction in the number of diplomats in the Indian high commission in Islamabad to 30
- Closure of Wagah border with immediate effect
- Closure of Pakistani air space to all Indian-owned or Indian-operated airlines
- Suspension of all trade with India
***
India suspended Indus Waters Treaty (signed in 1960)
Reportedly 80% of Pakistan’s cultivated land—about 16 million hectares—relies on water from the Indus system.
Pakistan threatening to destroy Indian dams to resume the flow of water - even if it takes nuclear warheads.
***
Movement of surveillance aircraft of Pakistan Airforce, is just seen in the airspace of Pakistan.
According to sources, there is also fear of LoC violation by India, tonight.
***
Pakistan announces live-fire naval drills in the Arabian Sea near the maritime border with India
OVERALL OBSERVATION -
There may be cross border action by India targeting terrorist bases. It is assumed that these terrorists are receiving covert aid by the Pakistani govt. Recent statements by high ranking Pakistani military leaders also show an inclination towards jihad against India.
Of critical concern is the escalation of any fighting to the level of using nuclear weapons. Both nations gained nuclear weapons in 1999, and since then there have been five cross-border clashes, four of which were skirmishes in disputed territory. Pakistan is the only state with a first use policy but limits it to imminent nuclear attack and a failure to repel an invasion.
In this current crisis, Pakistan has threatened the use of nukes over water cutoffs by India.
Military comparisons show India to be significantly more powerful than Pakistan, both in size of military as well as equipment. India has a big advantage on the land, sea and air. India has been deep into a modernization program to counter Chinese threats along the border and has grown in size over the past decade. Pakistan’s military equipment may well have degraded over time with older equipment being retained and newer equipment in short supply. The influx of Taliban supporting tribes along the border with Afghanistan have shifted a lot of the military thought of Pakistan as well as sucked away a lot of funding for military maintenance and improvement.
Action indicators are fuzzy at the moment as there are no good, confirmed reports of significant military movement towards the disputed area. At current, some of the reported actions could be considered at the chest beating level. Of near term concern is the inclination of Pakistani military leaders to go to war, and the civilian govt needing the military support to stay in power may go along with them.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Holocaust Remembrance Day
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Today is Holocaust Remembrance Day. At 10am, sirens sound across Israel, prompting everyone to stand in silence for one minute, in memory of the six million Jews murdered in Holocaust.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
On the streets of Gaza, more and more Palestinians are expressing open defiance against the armed group that’s ruled the strip for almost 20 years.
***
Mahmoud Abbas unloads on Hamas:
“Sons of dogs—hand over the hostages!”
In a rare public rebuke, Abbas demands Hamas release captives, disarm, and cede control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority.
He also slammed Hamas for giving Israel the excuse to “destroy Gaza” and warned of a “new Nakba.”
Source: Jerusalem Post
***
IAF continued to make targeted, drone strikes across the territory
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US airstrikes continue
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel is judging just how much more pressure to place on Hamas to extract the largest number of hostages before Hamas completely rejects any offer. There is some thought that Israel’s planning is based on the knowledge that Hamas afterwards will become increasingly resistant to further releases unless its outrageous demands are met. At which time, with a many of the hostages released as possible, Israel will bring the final hammer down.
The weakness of Hamas is being reflected by the ‘courage’ of Abbas to speak out. He talks tough only when things are going his way and not when his position is on the line. Increased protests against Hamas is another indicator. I’ve noted protests in the past - but they have ebbed and flowed based on Hamas repression and murder of leaders. Those efforts apparently have not suppressed hostile Gazan reaction - especially with the ongoing Israeli squeeze play.
Hezbollah leadership and activities are still being targeted in Lebanon with drone strikes. Otherwise things are relatively stable.
Iran - clock continues to tick.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.
***
Iran has agreed to allow an IAEA technical team into the country in the coming days to discuss reinstalling surveillance cameras at its nuclear sites, UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi confirmed.
***
Iran is reinforcing two underground tunnel complexes tied to its main nuclear site, possibly preparing them for use as nuclear facilities, according to satellite images reviewed by the Institute for Science and International Security.
***
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says Iran can have a civil nuclear program to produce energy if they import enriched material.
“We do not want to see war. This is not a president that campaigned on starting wars. And as he said very clearly, Iran is not going to have a nuclear weapon and he reserves every right to prevent that from happening, but he would prefer it not happen. He would prefer that there not be a need to resort to military force, either by us or anybody else. He would prefer that it’d be something that we can negotiate.”
He added: “The Iranians have shown a willingness to talk. We’re going to talk to them. If Iran wants a civil nuclear program, they can have one just like many other countries in the world have one. That is, they import enriched material.”
The U.S. has proposal was rejected according to senior Iranian official Ali Shamkhani.
OBSERVATION - The negotiations ‘dance’ continues but as Iran continues to reject US offers, they come dangerously closer to reaching the unstated red line on not willing to negotiate in an honest manner. Rubio’s statement above indicates that to some degree. Rubio is a war hawk towards Iran.
Iranian attempts to reinforce significant underground facilities has worked to help US warplanes to identify critical targets. Those entrance works are soft when compared to the big bunker busters the US has. Destroy the relatively shallow access tunnels and the collateral damage to deeper areas also occurs.
Currently, some view the identified sites as potential enriched uranium storage and centrifuge storage sites.
JORDAN -
Jordan bans the Muslim Brotherhood from operating in the country’s territory
Jordan announced a move to dissolve the Muslim Brotherhood movement in the country following the exposure of the terrorist cell operating in the kingdom. Police took over the movement’s offices.
The King of Jordan walks a fine line. Over the years, the popularity of islamic groups like Muslim Brotherhood has grown and threaten his kingdom, limiting his ability to take them out without stirring up public opposition.
Misc of Note –
I’m changing of my threat level notes on some categories to a similar scale used for like weather incidents Rough definitions I’m using as follows -
Threat Level - ADVISORY - Judging from sources that this category could develop into a serious incident
Threat Level - WATCH - Conditions are very ripe to develop into a situation that impacts the US. Could include small incidents occurring that could escalate into a major incident. Could changer to WARNING on short notice.
Threat Level - WARNING - Incident is either currently happening or expected to happen in the very near term.
I will continue to post the date I’ve reviewed the warning, just to keep me on track.
Thank you for your diligence and hard work on keeping us abreast of all the important issues in our world.
Cause we certainly won’t be hearing it from the MSM.
It’s nice to have a consolidated summary of it all.
Thanks Godzilla
Unconfirmed reports of An exchange of gunfire between Pakistani and Indian forces in the Leepa valley, Kashmir region
Thanks Godzilla
They will scrap.
Globalism / Great Reset –
António Guterres, the secretary-general of the United Nations, announced on Tuesday that he had named Ian Martin of the United Kingdom to head a strategic review of the impact and future of the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees.
The U.N. head said Martin would review the agency’s “implementation of its mandate under present political, financial, security and other constraints” and accompanying “consequences and risks” for Palestinians considered refugees by the United Nations.
The review is due to be completed in mid-June.
It remains unclear how many U.N. agencies will undergo strategic assessments under the UN80 initiative.
https://www.israeltoday.co.il/read/un-to-conduct-strategic-assessment-of-unrwa/#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - Normally this would be posted under Israel. Given the nature of this review, globalist linkage is more appropriate. UNRWA is one of many elements of the UN that covertly works to sabotage govts and pushes the globalist agendas.
RELATED - In a reversal of a previous opinion, the US Department of Justice says that the contentious US agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA, is not entitled to immunity from lawsuits in the US, according to a court document circulated online by lawyers, and subsequently, pro-Israel activists.
The Justice Department’s opinion was submitted as part of an ongoing lawsuit in which the families of more than 100 victims of the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led terror assault are claiming $1 billion in damages from UNRWA, asserting that the UN agency aided and abetted the terror group’s attack.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-77/
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated Jan 19, 2025
May Day - May 1st
With the weekend approaching, there continue to be minor protests covering a wide range of grievances across the country. As in the past, there is no evidence of significant violence or vandalism, though localized incidents can occur. Be situationally aware.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
And now, it looks as if Mohamed Adan Mohamed, a young resident of the left’s brave, new, multicultural Mankato, Minn., was stopped just in the nick of time. A special agent with the state Bureau of Criminal Apprehension (BCA) said that “there were strong indicators that Mohamed was preparing to conduct some sort of attack (Mass Casualty Event) in the next twenty-four hours.” Mohamed Adan Mohamed was stopped, but what is being done to prevent others in the future from plotting jihad massacres of the kind that he wanted to perpetrate? Nothing whatsoever, of course.
Minnesota’s Alpha News reported Wednesday that “the Blue Earth County Attorney’s Office has filed felony charges against Mohamed Adan Mohamed after he allegedly stole $2,150 worth of firearm magazines and made a threatening, anti-American post on social media.” The social media posts were the first indication that this was much more than just a shoplifting case.
Mohamed, who is 24, behaved suspiciously from the beginning. He “entered a Mankato store last week wearing a COVID mask, gloves, a green stocking cap, and a heavy winter coat.” It’s getting warmer these days, even in Mankato, and so Mohamed’s attire gave the impression that he had something to hide or was himself intending to hide items he shoplifted. And indeed, he “reportedly began selecting high-priced items such as body armor, bear spray, and 9mm firearm magazines without checking prices. As such, the business became suspicious.” With good reason.
Then he left with “approximately $2,150 worth of products,” for which he had not paid. Store security officers tried to stop him, but Mohamed Adan Mohamed got into a car and sped away, “nearly [running] over a person” in the process.
OBSERVATION - Not your brightest jihadi, but one none the less. Minnesota has been flooded by tens of thousands Somalis and other moslems and no doubt there are dedicated terrorist embedded within.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
B of A financial gurus indicating that they do not see any chance of a recession for 2025
POLITICAL FRONT –
More DNC infighting with Hogg facing calls and efforts to oust him from his DNC position.
Other democrat pundits are leaning to Schumer being primaries out.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
Many tariff agreements have been ironed out with many more in negotiation phases.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump tells Time magazine: Netanyahu won’t drag me into a war with Iran. If we don’t make a deal, I’ll be leading the pack
Illegal Immigration –
An FBI investigation finds there is evidence the Venezuelan Maduro government facilitates the migration of gang members into the US to destabilize it. The tactic mirrors Belarus helping migrants swarm the EU by using Belarus as a transit point.
***
Former Doña Ana County Magistrate Judge Joel Cano and his wife, Nancy Cano, were taken into custody Thursday after federal agents raided their Las Cruces home. The two face charges of evidence tampering amid allegations they harbored Cristhian Ortega-Lopez, an alleged illegal alien who is also believed to be a member of Venezuela’s notorious Tren de Aragua gang.
OBSERVATION - FAFO
***
Other reports that DHS circumvented a judge’s stay of deporting illegals by having the military do the deed. The justification is that the court order only dealt with DHS and not the military.
China -
Bloomberg reports China is considering suspending the 125% tariff on some US imports.
Some see this as China beginning to blink.
***
The China Coast Guard (CCG) landed on Sandy Cay, a disputed reef in the South China Sea earlier this month to assert sovereignty over the island that the Philippines also claims, Chinese media reported on Thursday.
Chinese State media reports CCG officers ‘exercising maritime control’ on Sandy Cay, one of the reefs in the Spratly Islands also claimed by the Philippines.
According to the state-run Global Times, photographs show CCG officers unfurling a Chinese flag on an uninhabited sand bank, identified as Sandy Cay, also known as Tiexian Jiao in China and Pagasa Cay 2 in the Philippines.
“In mid-April this year, the China Coast Guard exercised sovereign jurisdiction by exercising maritime control at Sandy Cay in the South China Sea,” it reported, without specifying the date of the landing.
The officers carried out inspections on the reef “to collect video evidence of relevant illegal activities by the Philippines”, and cleared rubbish like plastic bottles, wood sticks and other debris, the report said.
Part of the contested Spratly Islands, the Sandy Cay is the closest reef to the Subi Reef, China’s second largest artificial island and military base in the South China Sea. It is also only several kilometers from Thitu Island, the largest base the Philippines currently holds.
***
Shandong (17) once again deployed again to the Philippine Sea, marking the second time this month.
Shandong is operating closer to the Philippines this deployment, with a Japan Joint Staff Office (JSO) map showing the carrier around 200 nautical miles east of the northeast tip of the Philippine main island of Luzon.
Around 11 a.m. Wednesday, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force JMSDF confirmed that Shandong and cruiser CNS Yan’an (106), were sailing in the waters about 490 miles south of Miyako Island, according to a JSO release.
The Shandong Carrier Strike Group sailed within the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone, although under international law, an EEZ does not prevent transit or military activities.
https://news.usni.org/2025/04/23/chinese-carrier-shandong-deploys-nears-the-philippines
Phillipines –
See China above
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
NOTE - there has been a lot of rhetoric thrown back and forth by the US, Russia and Ukraine regarding cease fire / peace talks. Right now it appears that putin is playing games and pressing forward with his military solution.
Logistics –
Recently released satellite imagery of Russia’s 51st GRAU Arsenal shows complete devastation. Roughly half of the arsenal’s munition storage areas have been destroyed or damaged, representing a possible loss of more than 100,000 tons of Russian ammunition.
To put into context, the previous massive hit on a Russian ammo dump - the 2024 strike at the 107th Arsenal, at Toropets, destroyed an estimated 30,000+ tons of ammunition. That would be enough for two to three months of fighting. The losses from the 51st GRAU could represent six to nine months of supplies.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Report in Russia: Major General Yaroslav Moskalyk, Deputy Commander of the Russian Army’s Operations Directorate, was killed in an IED explosion in Moscow
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 80s with cooling trend towards the end of the period..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight Russia attacked with Shahed drones. Out of 103 launched, 41 were shot down and 40 more didn’t reach their target and were lost in location. 3 people killed, 6 wounded as result of drone strikes in Pavlohrad of Dnipropetrovsk region
Overnight, Ukraine UAVs targeted airfields in Novofedorivka and Kacha in occupied Crimea.
Russian losses per 25/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.
+1170 men
+9 tanks
+3 AFVs
+72 artillery
+3 MLRS
+3 AD systems
Summary —
Shaheds continue to make life miserable for Ukranians. Another factor being noted for their success is that they are targeting civilian sites - apartments, etc and not the more heavily defended military ones.
The impact to Russian operations to the loss of munitions at the 51st GRAU Arsenal will take time to show itself. Already some sources indicate Russia is increasingly relying on NK for its artillery ammo, but even that, to make up 100,000 TONS of ammo will be a big hill to climb. It will force planners to reconsider logistics for any spring/summer offensive long term supply availability
Europe / NATO General –
“I don’t know if Putin wants peace,” NATO chief Rutte tells reporters at the White House after meeting with senior Trump officials
Former NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, in a meeting with President Trump and Norwegian Prime Minister Støre on Thursday, said “we need to continue to support Ukraine” financially while still pushing forward to find a solution to the conflict
Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025
Military movements and actions -
AFP: Pakistan and India confirm overnight exchanges of fire with India at multiple locations along the Jammu and Kashmir border. Reportedly heavy in the Leepa valley, Kashmir region. Leepa Valley is home to at least 50000 with some estimates close to 80000 people.
Unconfirmed reports from Indian and Pakistani media that both countries are relocating their ballistic missile launchers.
INS Vikrant has entered the Arabian Sea and is currently heading in the direction of Pakistan.
Residents in Rawalpindi, Punjab, report heavy Pakistani military equipment moving toward the Indian border. Videos on social media show (scraggly) tanks on trailers in movement in the border area.
Pakistan says it is willing to give out a measured response to any India movement.
Political actions -
Pakistan Deputy PM calls Pahalgam terrorists ‘freedom fighters’
Even as Pakistan has condemned the recent attack in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam and denied claims of harbouring terror outfits, its Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar on Thursday hailed the perpetrators as “freedom fighters”.
Speaking to reporters in Islamabad, Dar, who is also the Deputy Prime Minister of Pakistan, said, “Those who carried out attacks in Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam district on April 22 might be freedom fighters”.
***
The Indian Ministry of External Affairs advises all Indian citizens in Pakistan to leave the country immediately.
Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif-”If our civilians are not safe then I am making it clear then Indian civilians will not be safe either.”
All visas issued to Indian citizens are void. Indian citizens must leave Pakistani territory within 48 hours.
The Russian Embassy in Pakistan has advised its citizens to avoid visiting the country amid rising regional tensions.
***
Indian forces blew up the home of terrorist Adil Thokar in Bijbehara, Kashmir. He is accuse of participating in the terror attack. Other reports are that he had booby trapped the house in anticipation of a raid, but the traps were detected by Indian forces and detonated safely.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Deployment of combat units to the border region is serious business. Shooting in some locations could escalate to much larger engagements very quickly.
India’s claims to have shut off water to Pakistan has already resulted in a declaration of war by Pakistan. There will be some level of conflict in the near future.
Regarding the water cut off - Indian dams do not have the capacity or diversion capabilities to prohibit all flow down stream. They could potentially restrict flow during the dry season, but have limited capacity - most being run of river hydroplants.
The ‘chest beating’ phase is close to an end and both sides will have to face a fight or find some way to deescalate the situation. Use of nuclear weapons by either side is still regarded as very low, but triggering thresholds for both countries have come down in recent years, increasing the possibility of use. If used, there is a possibility that China may become involved in some manner, most likely against India, but this is still a far off scenario. Certainly uses of nukes would ignite a global crisis.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Meetings with General Michael E. Kurilla.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
In anticipation of the deadline, a massive military buildup has occurred across the Middle East, ordered by the Commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), General Michael E. Kurilla who is claimed to be supportive of military action by Israel against Iran. Included in the buildup is 2 Carrier Strike Groups led by the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) and USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75), 6 B-2 “Spirit” Long-Range Strategic Stealth Bombers deployed to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, at least 8 MIM-104 “Patriot” Surface-to-Air Missile Batteries, a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) Battery, dozens of additional fighter, strike, surveillance and refueling aircraft, as well as several thousand troops in place across the CENTCOM Area-of-Responsibility.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1915590118666125811?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
The Mujahideen Brigades announced that Imad al-Baba (Abu Ashraf), a senior member of the organization’s military intelligence, was eliminated in an IDF attack.
According to the report, he was killed with his family in an airstrike in the central Gaza Strip.
The organization is responsible for the kidnapping and murder of the Bibs family.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syria’s president said he is willing to join the Abraham accords “in the right terms”.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Israeli security forces conduce raids on terrorist in Samaria
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Roughly, 10 - 20 Houthi targets are hit daily by US fighter/bombers.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Rhetoric from Israel indicates that the clock is ticking against Hamas and that increased ground ops are in the offing. Hamas continues to be resistant to any deals, even while Egypt tries to resurrect previously rejected offers.
Situation with Lebanon and Syria are relatively static.
Iran is still ticking down.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.
Russian Energy Minister: We plan to supply Iran with up to 1 billion barrels of oil.
***
Iran’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Dutch ambassador after the Netherlands accused Iran of plotting attacks. Iran’s Foreign Ministry strongly denied the allegations as “baseless, unacceptable and laughable lies” based on security service “guesses” and influenced by Israel
***
Axios, citing two sources, reported that Araghchi told Witkoff that the technical details of any nuclear agreement would make it very difficult to complete negotiations within 60 days.
***
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reportedly told U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff during last Saturday’s nuclear talks in Rome, that it may not be possible reach a nuclear deal by the end of President Trump’s 60-day deadline set back in March, suggesting that the two sides work towards an interim agreement instead, according to Axios. This comes amidst reports that President Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu during a call on Tuesday, that the 60-day deadline he set in last month’s letter to Iranian Supreme-Leader Ali Khamenei remains in place, with the exact deadline not publicly known but it likely ending around May 5th.
OBSERVATION - The standard Iranian delaying tactic is at play here. They know that our military cannot stay on the ready for multiple months with out reducing readiness. The May 5th, now potentially May 16th deadline still looms and it seems that Iran is betting that Trump will essentially back down given that they are ‘negotiating’. Trump is also reluctant to endorse any independent Israeli strike while negotiations are on going. Israel knows well that the window of opportunity is going to close very soon, and I think Netanyahu has conveyed that to Trump.
This makes the period May 5 - 16 critical. Iran has to make some serious concessions to its nuclear ambitions else Trump may use that to justify a strike (as if he really needs any other justification).
Iraq -
Iraqi News Agency: The Iraqi delegation’s discussions in Damascus will include affirming Iraq’s support for and commitment to the unity and sovereignty of Syrian territory and the importance of Syria’s stability.
Syria -
A Defense Ministry source told SANA: Lebanese Hezbollah militias fired several artillery shells from Lebanese territory toward Syrian Arab Army positions in the Qusayr area, west of Homs.
OBSERVATION - Hezbollah attention remains more focused on Syria than Israel at the moment.
Misc of Note –
I’m changing some of my threat level notes on categories to a similar scale used for like weather incidents Rough definitions I’m using as follows -
Threat Level - ADVISORY - Judging from sources that this category could develop into a serious incident
Threat Level - WATCH - Conditions are very ripe to develop into a situation that impacts the US. Could include small incidents occurring that could escalate into a major incident. Could changer to WARNING on short notice.
Threat Level - WARNING - Incident is either currently happening or expected to happen in the very near term.
I will continue to post the date I’ve reviewed the warning, just to keep me on track.
Black Swans -
A new study forecasts that Solar Cycle 25, which began on August 11, 2019, will experience 2 ±1 extremely strong flares (ES-flares) with intensities greater than X14.3, starting around or after spring 2027.
The first ES-flare is expected approximately 7.48 ±0.80 years into the cycle, which corresponds to a window from May 2026 to December 2027. The forecasts are based on statistical analysis of solar activity data collected since 1975, covering four complete solar cycles—introducing a degree of uncertainty.
Historical data from Solar Cycles 21 to 24 (1975–2024) form the basis for these predictions, with a total of 37 S-flares and 23 ES-flares recorded.
https://watchers.news/2025/04/24/solar-cycle-25-extreme-solar-flares-forecast/
OBSERVATION - These are not necessarily earth directed flares, but totals. However, the chances are that earth will not be excepted either. An earth directed flare of these magnitudes could cause disruptions to power grids and satellites. Govt agencies continue to assure us that the grid is better prepared since the geomagnetic storm that struck Earth on March 13, 1989. This geomagnetic storm caused a nine-hour outage of Hydro-Québec’s electricity transmission system. The CME ejected was associated with a X15-class solar flare.
Something to monitor. However remember, the EMP produced by a solar CME impact is NOT the same as created by a nuclear weapon. Different levels of protection are recommended.
Yours is always an extremely excellent synopsis ! Thank You.
Thanks Godzilla
Globalism / Great Reset –
With the burial of the Pope, speculation now focuses on his replacement. Observers note that Francis installed something like 80% of the cardinals who will be soon gathering to choose his successor. Strongly indicates that the trend he started towards wokeness may not be broken.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated Jan 19, 2025
May Day - May 1st
Weekend here, there continue to be minor protests covering a wide range of grievances across the country. As in the past, there is no evidence of significant violence or vandalism, though localized incidents can occur. Be situationally aware.
***
There are reports from those monitoring the leftist organizers of recent ‘protests’ that they are struggling to gain traction with organized actions and are getting desperate to have an even that can gain traction. The recent “No King” spinoff to the “Hands Off” protest struggled to produce 50% of the turnout of the previous. Some attempts to have more rallies in a build up to May Day are not being received well.
Another observation from last Saturday’s protests, the primary turnout were those over 50, white and women.
Key note, there is no major incident, like the death of Floyd in 2020, to anchor the protests and launch them to any meaningful levels. Even the current deportation efforts and controversies have failed to energize the leftists to turn out.
***
(FO) : Citing current and former Pentagon officials, independent journalist Ken Klippenstein said uniformed defense officials are attempting to undermine Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and potentially force Hegseth out of office through leaks to the media.
OBSERVATION - Reminder, there has been abundant rumors / smoke that the deep staters in the DoD were plotting ways to impede the Trump agenda even before he took office. The recent smears against Hegseth are nothing more than the exposed tentacles of the beast. They are at war against the American people.
RELATED - Nicolas Turza, a Branch Chief at the Department of Defense was exposed during an undercover date with an OMG journalist. Turza, whose role places him in a position of influence within the Pentagon, openly expressed opposition to the Commander-in-Chief.
Turza stated, “The same guy who tried to overthrow an election is just, like, truly setting us down a path of dictatorship. He’s illegitimate. He’s terribly immoral, breaking every norm. We’re going to resist him. Everything he does.”
Nicolas Turza, has RESIGNED from his position at the Pentagon following publication of the video
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
President Donald Trump issued an executive order directing the Commerce Department to speed up permits for offshore deep-sea critical mineral mining and exploration. The order also directs the Interior Department to speed up permitting for coastal water mining.
***
Southwest Airlines CEO Bob Jordan said the U.S. airline industry is already in a recession, and Southwest expects a 6% drop in second-quarter revenue after a 3% drop since the beginning of 2025.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ended the service of all committee members on DOD advisory committees.
This would include the seat held by Susan Rice.
Hegseth thanked the members for their work but said changes are needed to align with the department’s new goals and to use resources more effectively.
Pete Hegseth’s move to reset DOD advisory committees is long overdue. The Pentagon’s bloated advisory panels have ballooned to 41 groups—many duplicative or focused on political pet projects rather than warfighting readiness. Since 2021, these committees cost taxpayers over $220M annually while producing bureaucratic inertia. The Defense Advisory Committee on Women in the Services alone burned $8.7M last fiscal year debating gender initiatives instead of lethality.
https://x.com/dogeai_gov/status/1915804608024220093
OBSERVATION - Bloated cesspools of DEI and Deep State fecal matter. Removal is long overdue.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
Medical community raising fears of a measles epidemic as cases are detected in more states. Fear mongering at its worst. MMR shots have become less effective over the years and some in the medical community note that herd immunity was better than vaccination prior to the shots coming out. Also, measles are more easily treated than in the early 60’s.
POLITICAL FRONT –
President Trump directed the Department of Justice to investigate “straw” or “dummy” donations to Democrat-aligned platform ActBlue to cover up foreign donations to U.S. political campaigns.
OBSERVATION - If ever an organization was full of corruption, ActBlue is at the top of the list. Expect deep state elements in the DoJ to fight hard against this investigation.
TRUMP Watch –
Attended the funeral of Pope Francis.
Met with Ukrainian President Zelensky for about 15 minutes.
Illegal Immigration –
FBI under Kash Patel has arrested Milwaukee Judge Hannah Dugan for obstructing an immigration arrest.
Patel: “We believe Judge Dugan intentionally misdirected federal agents away from the subject to be arrested in her courthouse, Eduardo Flores Ruiz, allowing the subject — an illegal alien — to evade arrest.”
OBSERVATION - Include the judge and his wife from New Mexico who were harboring Venezuelan terrorists in their home and you have the nexus for the latests episode of leftist exploding heads. These individuals were low hanging fruit, the next round may bite further up the food chain, such as mayors or even governors of sanctuary states who impede the lawful actions of ICE and violate federal laws to protect illegals.
***
DHS Secretary Noem announced that their agents have arrested more than 150,000 criminal illegal aliens.
OBSERVATION - Add to those numbers the potentially tens (hundreds) of thousands that are self deporting - all in the last 4 months.
China -
Rumors and skuttlebutt as to how much China has folded to US tariffs and economic demands.
Russia -
Witkoff met briefly with putin and Kremlin officials before flying to Oman.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Fair, temps 50 - 80s with cooling trend towards the end of the period..
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, out of 114 drones, Ukrainian air defenses shot down 66 Russian with 31 decoy drones also neutralized (lost location, no damage). Russia launched 1 Oniks missile, and 2 Kh-31P missiles. Strikes hit Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Dnipro regions
Russian losses per 26/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1110 men
+8 tanks
+5 AFVs
+70 artillery
+1 AD system
Kursk -
In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 30 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports
Russia is claiming that all Ukraine forces have been pushed out of the Kursk region.
Summary —
Russia has been attacking furiously in Kursk over the past few days in an effort to drive the remaining Ukraine forces out of the country. Ukraine only holds a fraction of the territory it did after the surprise raid last year. This forced Russia to divert forces from its primary assault on Pokrovsk, resulting in the operation running out of steam and in some instances losing ground. I’m sure Russia wants to make a quick end to the occupation so that resources can be directed towards other goals within their spring/summer offensive plans.
Ukraine/Russia/US negotiations continue to chase each others tails and getting no where very fast. With Europe flopping around trying to organize support absent US lead, putin may smell some degree of blood in the water. A suddenly successful Shahed effort to further demoralize Ukrainians and sustained pressure on the front are more satisfying to him than a negotiate peace.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025
Military movements and actions -
NOTE - These reports may not be totally accurate given fog of war considerations, but are concerning
Large Pakistani army reserves are reportedly being moved north toward Kashmir. Heavy armor is already on the move to the Indo-Pak International Border and Line-of-Control (LoC) including tanks, self propelled artillery, and heavy weaponry.
Pakistan looking at a possible preemptive strike on India fearing Indian attack on Pakistan after the ISI backed LeT terror attack on tourists in Pahalgam Kashmir !
Pakistan Army is relocating grain stocks to Punjab from Balochistan & Waziristan. The Pakistan Air Force has deployed F16s at Lahore & Rawalpindi
***
“There are a variety of military options, short of a full-blown war, on the table,” the Times of India (TOI) reported, citing a senior military official. “It’s for the political leadership to take the final call. If there is a go-ahead, then the retaliatory strikes will be at a time and place of our choosing.”
Pakistan’s Defense Minister says country is ready for full-scale war with India -
Pakistan is prepared to respond to any potential aggression from India, said the country’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, amid the escalating tensions between the two nuclear powers following the shooting of tourists in the disputed Kashmir region.
“We will weigh our response to whatever India initiates. It will be a measured response. If a full-scale attack or something of that nature happens, then obviously there will be a full-scale war,” the minister said in an interview with Sky News.
Political actions -
(FO) Pakistan withdrew from the Simla Agreement which provided the line of control in the disputed Kashmir territory and a ceasefire.
The cessation of the Simla Agreement strongly points toward both sides attempting to solidify their claims over Jammu and Kashmir using a full-scale war. However, India shutting down the Indus River threatens Pakistan’s agriculture sector and may exacerbate both the India-Pakistan conflict as well as Pakistan’s separatist movements in Balochistan. This has the potential to significantly change the strategic picture of Asia by cutting off one of China’s overland lifelines, creating refugee and famine crises, and driving nuclear proliferation.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Both sides are holding back from military actions at this stage. Indicators are that each are mobilizing for a major conflict and are readying their plans. Both are trying to avoid early conflict that can devolve into combat situations neither are ready for.
Pakistan is at the disadvantage in the current situation having roughly half the power of India, though equal in numbers of nukes. The threat of a preemptive strike is high as a way to offset the numerical shortfall and gain the initiative to force India to deploy forces in a manner favorable to Pakistan. This could be some sort of Attack - Defense tactic understanding that a smaller force can defend against a much larger force - recent example being Ukraine. Otherwise, a straight force on force matchup would see Pakistan losing and as a result possibly popping nukes to stop Indian actions.
Near term - Strong likelihood of some action being taken by India within the next week as there are no real actions / negotiations taking place to defuse the situation.
Lower intensity action such as air / artillery strikes on terrorist centers and headquarters may well be a selected option. This would pull things back from a full scale confrontation and limit actions in Pakistan. Another possible action would be limited ground operations towards same terror centers. Broadest effort would be to avoid direct conflict with the Pakistani army.
Worst case scenario is that the limited options described above escalates into a full scale war. Then the principle of “He who gets there with the ‘mostest’ “ rule is in play and could drive which side intimates major combat. If I were India, I wouldn’t initiate the lower intensity options unless by forces were positioned and ready to conduct full scale operations into Pakistan. Similar for Pakistan
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- More hostage talks
- Witkoff meets in Oman over Iranian nuclearization.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
A Hamas delegation will arrive in Cairo on Saturday for negotiations on a future hostage-Gaza ceasefire deal, AFP reported.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Reuters report: The Syrian government returned a letter to the Trump administration regarding its demands regarding the lifting of sanctions, and said, among other things, that it would act not to pose a threat to the countries of the region, including Israel. The statement said that President Ahmed al-Sharaa had established a special committee to monitor Palestinian terrorist organizations in Syrian territory
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Yemeni ballistic missile and drone were intercepted by Israeli air defenses overnight.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas actions against the IDF have resulted in more neighborhoods being ordered to be evacuated and eventually rubbled by Israeli attacks on Hamas positions, and Israel gaining/controlling more ground.
Lebanon and Syria are stable. However, regarding the Syrian govt.’s statement not to pose a threat to Israel. Remember, they are a scorpion and will always be on (Scorpion and Frog tail)
Iran - tic tock
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.
A very large explosion at Shahid Rajaii port (port in southern Iran next to Persian Gulf), the reason is still not clear. Observers and images posted to social media show the fireball and smoke cloud with a distinctive orange coloration. That orange smoke suggests nitrogen tetroxide, possibly/probably used for missile fuel.
OBSERVATION - Very easily a failure to handle safely. Could well be a well placed covert attack by Israel.
***
Top Iranian and U.S. negotiators will meet again on Saturday to hammer out a new deal curbing Tehran’s advancing nuclear program, while U.S. President Donald Trump signalled confidence in clinching a new pact that would block Iran’s path to a nuclear bomb.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi will negotiate indirectly with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff in Muscat through Omani mediators, a week after a second round in Rome that both sides described as constructive. Talks are set to start at an expert level, which will begin drawing up a framework for a potential nuclear deal, ahead of an indirect meeting between the lead negotiators.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bjaxactyll
***
In a speech delivered yesterday, Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei said that in the 7th century, Imam Hassan, Hussein’s brother, chose a tactical move at the time and signed a peace treaty with Muawiyah - his great enemy - knowing the will of God.
He is essentially hinting through the story: Even if he himself now chooses to negotiate with the Americans – perhaps even sign an agreement – this is only a temporary move. The ultimate goal, he says, has not changed: overthrowing the West, destroying Israel, and leading a global revolution – which will soon be realized.
In accordance with Shiite tradition, he argued that if one wants the global revolution and the establishment of a world government of Shiite Islam to be realized, then one must be silent and not talk about the actions being taken to achieve this goal – including the development of nuclear weapons. In the time of Jafar Sadiq, he said, people talked too much – and therefore God’s will was not fulfilled.
In doing so, he implicitly criticized recent public talk by Iranian officials about nuclear weapons, and made it clear that a low profile was needed. “The real things are done quietly,” he said, reinforcing the idea that this was a deeply held Shiite belief – quiet, slow, determined action – that would bring about “Islamic redemption.”
https://t.me/beholdisraelchannel/53555
OBSERVATION - Speech by Khamenei combined with the implications of the technique with these ‘talks’ should tell Trump all he needs to know about the intentions of the Iranians. It is a move to obfuscate Iranian efforts to get nukes to use to destroy not only Israel, but the US as well. Any ‘treaty’ will be willingly tossed aside by Iran when the opportunity arises to launch that attack.
Time will tell if Trump is unknowingly being suckered by Iran, or knows fully well their delay tactics and are letting them hoist themselves on their petards. The US has amassed a significant military force in the middle east and he’ll have to decide to fish or cut bait. I think the period of 5 - 16 May could be the make or break for Iran.
Between this and Pakistan/India and Russia/Ukraine and China Weird - I'm thankful we're getting our financial house in order here in the US and that Trump's stopped the invasion at the border.
Nonsense. Slaughtering civilians in a time of peace is an act of war.
Learn from hamas, although muslims seem singularly of learning from past mistakes or history.
Nonsense. Slaughtering civilians in a time of peace is an act of war.
Learn from hamas, although muslims seem singularly of learning from past mistakes or history.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated Jan 19, 2025
May Day - May 1st
Weekend here, there continue to be minor protests covering a wide range of grievances across the country. As in the past, there is no evidence of significant violence or vandalism, though localized incidents can occur. Be situationally aware.
***
Democratic political strategist James Carville unleashed another tirade on his podcast Politics War Room, asking whether Americans should wait for President Donald Trump to fully become “Hitler” before taking action. During the episode “Is Trump Really Like Hitler?” Carville responded to recent remarks made by CNN host Michael Smerconish. Smerconish said that while many people dislike Trump, he should not be treated as if he were Hitler. However, Carville didn’t agree. “Do we wait until he’s Hitler? At what point do you say, ‘This guy is a threat?’”
https://wokespy.com/james-carvilles-podcast-eruption-do-we-wait-until-trump-is-hitler/
OBSERVATION - Often this would end up in the “Political” category, but in this instance Carville is calling for violence against Trump, the administration as well as supporters. He is speaking the desires and plans of the marxist left buried in the democrat party. Dehumanizing the opponent is key to getting their sheeple willing to become violent for it their target is not human, their actions are justified and moral.
This is part of the escalating rhetoric by the left across many mediums. At this stage we need to take them at their word
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Army recently surpassed its fiscal year 2025 reenlistment goal by retaining 15,600 Soldiers, 800 more than the 14,800 target, well before the fiscal year ends on September 30, 2025. Soldiers whose service contracts expire between October 1, 2024, and September 30, 2025, were eligible for reenlistment starting in March 2024.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Democrats (leftists in particular) are attempting to rally behind the judges arrested this past week for violation of immigration laws. Their grievances are founded on completely false narratives concerning the reason for their arrests. I suspect that this will gain very, very little traction since the truth behind the action of those judges are pretty well established and impossible to refute. Support centered in the mind-numbed elements. Furor likely to subside like the Garcia ‘uproar’ as polling shows them to loose even more support from the public. BTW, public support of deportations appears to be steady to increasing.
Illegal Immigration –
Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers administration instructs all state employees to help illegal immigrants avoid ICE.
OBSERVATION - Essentially Evers is telling state employees to break the law, pure and simple. This follows the arrest of a Wisconsin judge for aiding and abetting an illegal to escape pending ICE arrest. Wisconsin may become the spear point of arrests of state officials - even the governor himself - for violations of federal immigration laws, at felony levels.
As an open act of defiance of the fed govt, his action can also be seen within the sphere of CW2 alignments and actions.
***
Federal law enforcement officers have been authorized to detain and arrest suspected members of Venezuelan terrorist organization Tren de Aragua without a warrant.
An internal memo, obtained by USA Today, states that law-enforcement officers do not require a warrant to arrest members of Tren de Aragua, whose members have been scheduled for expedited deportation by the President under the 1798 Alien Enemies Act.
The memo advises officers that they should, nevertheless, “consider consulting federal prosecutors in the relevant district to obtain criminal search warrants and/or criminal arrest warrants” for immigration violations.
“While the ultimate goal is immediate identification and removal of Alien Enemies, coordination with federal prosecutors—who are required to support these operations at every step—may enhance officers’ ability to conduct apprehensions safely and efficiently, and may assist in the collection of evidence identifying additional Tren de Aragua members in the vicinity of the Alien Enemy to be apprehended,” the memo states.
OBSERVATION - A very aggressive move forward as the 1798 Alien Enemies Act is under severe attack by activist judges. It may indicate that the end game will be the USSC having to follow the law and support the use of the act.
***
A Chinese-owned and operated factory complex in Ohio illegally imported workers from China, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Ohio.
Last week, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Ohio released a statement saying that federal officials had seized $126 million in assets related to an investigation into illegal staffing and money laundering.
“It is alleged that many of the workers were illegally smuggled into the United States, primarily through Mexico, and encouraged to travel to the Dayton area to be employed by one of the target entities and serve as a workforce at the various factories,” the office stated.
One of the companies raided included Fuyao Glass America, the company that appeared in the Obama’s prize-winning 2019 documentary, American Factory.
OBSERVATION - Essentially could be considered human trafficking for slave labor. The article doesn’t mention if the employed illegals managed to skim the money pot of govt handouts to supplement their pay.
China -
Not yet hitting but could. China could face sanctions for shipping rocket fuel to Iran in violations of sanctions against it.
Russia -
Trump: Russia’s recent bombing of Ukrainian civilian areas makes me think Putin should be dealt with differently, such as through sanctions.
Trump: Putin may not want to stop the war in Ukraine
At a meeting with Witkoff, Putin says Russia is ready to negotiate with Ukraine without any preconditions, - Kremlin’s spokesperson said
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with scattered rain and showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 149 drones at Ukraine overnight. 57 drones were shot down, and 67 decoy drones were neutralized without reaching their targets. Damage reported in Zhytomyr, Dnipro, Odesa, Donetsk, Sumy, and Cherkasy regions.
Russian losses per 27/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1030 men
+8 tanks
+5 AFVs
+42 artillery
+1 MLRS
Kursk -
Russia continues to claim it has cleared Ukraine forces from Kursk.
Russia attacks are less than 1/2 what they have been for the past week.
Summary —
putin continues to play the US and Witkoff.
Fighting has been moderately heavy with minor terrain captures by both sides. Ukraine’s excursion into Kursk is close to an end with Ukraine essentially buying more time for its traditional nasty meat grinder defenses to be established in Ukraine before final withdrawal.
Ukraine is also being forced to be more honest with its Shahed reporting. This could be in part to build upon propaganda that the strikes are hitting civilian targets and not military ones.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025
At this stage, a lot of the information is not confirmed and in some cases fully RUMINT
***
Military movements and actions -
According to multiple reports, clashes between Pakistani and Indian forces have now spread to the Samahni and Neelum areas along the LoC (Line of Control).
Samahni is a key valley sector in the south, while Neelum is a mountainous region in the north.
The fighting now covers multiple sectors, indicating a broader escalation compared to previous nights.
Unconfirmed reports that an Indian checkpoint on the Line of Control has reportedly been destroyed by a Pakistani ATGM
Political actions -
Pakistan puts all doctors, nurses, paramedics and ambulance drivers on standby as declaration of war imminent
***
Flooding starts in Pakistan after India unexpectedly releases water in the Jhelum River without prior notification.
Locals worry that the situations could get much worse if the water keeps flowing from India.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1916101372941828259
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
If a full blow war is to break out, it is likely in the next week after both sides get their forces in place. Expansion on border skirmishes is concerning, but so far they have been limited to mostly small arms with some artillery.
The Pakistani flooding is something I suspected would happen but didn’t speak on. I’ve noted that the Indian dams are mostly hydropower run of river flow and without substantial storage capability . So they shut the dams down, filling them up to their limited capacity, then break open the spill gates and release a flood. Such surges in flood level flows are not useful for Pakistani farmers who rely upon steady flow rates. Flooding also damages towns and infrastructure, forcing Pakistan resources away from a potential war. Once the water levels have lowered in the lakes sufficiently, then the gates will close and the rivers dry out again, until the next flood surge.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel putting together a plan to supply aid to Gazan ‘civilians’ and deny Hamas access
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan said this evening:
“We have decided not to consider any proposals that do not include a complete end to the fighting.”
***
The IDF is establishing a new humanitarian zone in Rafah between the Morag and Philadelphi corridors.
Palestinians, after security checks, will be allowed to enter. A tent city will be built, with humanitarian aid delivered by civilian companies, likely American.
The plan aims to separate civilians from terrorists and prevent aid from reaching Hamxs.
***
Various airstrikes across Gaza overnight.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Sources in Yemen report that senior commander Abu Mohsen a-Rassas, head of security in Marab, was eliminated in a U.S. Navy strike along with other pro-Iranian Houthi terrorists.
***
Houthi ballistic missile was intercepted prior to crossing into Israeli territory overnight.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Saudi news reports that Egypt, a mediator in the hostage - ceasefire negotiations - is demanding a “full file” from Hamas detailing the condition of the hostages in Gaza
Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister: We cannot accept the starvation of the brotherly Palestinian people or the use of starvation as a weapon.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel maintains the initiative in Gaza, calling the shots and tightening the loop around Hama’s neck. The latest humanitarian aid program moves Gazans into cleared area - no tunnels or weapons stockpiles. They will do the security screening to make sure nothing gets smuggled in and identify Hamas trying to hide there. With noncombatants out of the way and getting fed, Israel can focus further remaining elements of Hamas.
Lebanon and Syria, nothing significant to report
Iran’s clock continues to wind down.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.
***
More on the massive explosion and fires that have ravaged the Rajaee Port in Iran.
Large parts of the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas have been entirely destroyed by yesterday morning’s explosion on the shores of the Persian Gulf. Footage of the port shows a number of warehouses as well as other buildings having suffered significant damage, while firefighting and search-and-rescue operations continue.
Yesterday’s explosion and fires are believed to have been caused by mishandling of explosive materials, starting an out-of-control fire that came in contact with a single and/or several chemicals being improperly stored by Iranian Port Authorities. The chemicals which the fire came in contact with are believed to have either been a high-explosive fertilizer like ammonium nitrate and/or a compound used in the production of solid rocket fuel such as sodium perchlorate, both of which are known to come through the port of Bandar Abbas via China.
The presence of such explosive material is being confirmed to be from a shipment of solid rocket fuel material, according to AP, citing security firm Ambrey. Earlier reports said two Iranian ships left China carrying 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate for the IRGC.
The death toll from yesterday’s explosion at Iran’s Rajaei Port has risen to 25, with more than 1,139 injured.
Emergency crews have been fighting the blazes for over the past 24 hours with secondary explosions now being reported hitting containers and reigniting the fires this afternoon.
Aerial views/photography suggest that the most intense explosions and fire were from three large warehouses that were close together. Iranian journalist Mohamad Ahwaze writes: “Aerial footage shows explosions at three separate locations in the port of Bandar Abbas, refuting claims of a single blast.”
The area was surrounded with stacked containers and smaller warehouses that appear to have been destroyed by the fire.
Shahid Rajaee Port is Iran’s largest port, handling 85% of all loading and unloading of containers in the country. It is also the 2nd largest container port in the entire Middle East region.
Spokesman for Iran’s National Security Committee: According to preliminary reports, the Rajaee Port incident has nothing to do with our defense sector’s activities.
Israeli officials state that Israel was not behind this morning’s explosion at the port of Bandar Abbas in Southern Iran, according to Channel 12.
OBSERVATION -
Rocket fuel mix is not part of “our defense sector’s activities” has gotta be the most stupid statement of the morning. This disaster has seriously impacted warehouse and container storage areas. There is no evidence that the actual port facilities to offload ships has been impacted. However, these support areas will be out of commission for a while.
Key item coming out of this is the fact that China is supplying Iran with rocket fuel. This is key because Israel took out the solid fuel production facilities and their mixers. Iran now is fully exposed (along with China) importing these fuels they can no longer produce internally.
***
Report in the Wall Street Journal: Major disagreements were recorded today in talks between Iran and the US, although the parties ultimately claimed that the talks were useful and positive. The disagreements centered mainly on the question of whether Iran could continue to enrich uranium on its own, and also on the US’s desire to include Iran’s missile project in the agreement.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Tehran state TV, “Some of our differences are very serious.”
OBSERVATION - Official statement tried to put a smiley face on the disagreements. Allowing Iran to enrich their own uranium is tantamount to them retaining their nuclear weapons program.
Are these disagreements enough to push Trump across the red line and deal more harshly with Iran? I believed yesterday’s ‘talks’ will be a key date as to whether or not Trump sees enough progress to delay military action. These ‘differences’ are very close to that red line.
Misc of Note –
May is around the corner and already wildfires are becoming a problem in some parts of the country. For you Freepers living in woodland interface areas or flat out in the middle of the woods, take the time NOW to reduce fuels from around your homes/properties, update your evacuation plans and pack up your bags in the event of a short to no notice evacuation order. Double check on your possible evacuation route - and actually drive them. Don’t rely on Google maps for route conditions. And as always, as fire season progresses, increase your situational awareness accordingly.
Hey Carville - Trump wasn't 'Hitler' his first four years and he left the White House on the same day as every other past President AND he was NOT a dictator Day One - he works with Congress like every other President. So maybe you need to rethink a position that makes democrats look like nut cases to most Americans.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Interesting article concerning the turmoil at the WEF regarding Schwab’s resignation and possible internal civil war. Too much to post here.
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/04/coup-at-the-world-economic-forum/
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated Jan 19, 2025
May Day - May 1st
Some minor violence over the weekend but otherwise pretty tame. Watching to see how the next organized protests develop.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
China make biggest cancellation of US pork orders (12,000 tons) since 2020 as US pork imports face 172% tariff.
Which means bacon in the US about to go limit down
OBSERVATION - Watch the stores and get stocked up when prices drop.
***
Existing home sales fell 5.9% in March ahead of the busy spring selling season as the median price topped $400,000 – the highest median home price for any March, according to the National Association of Realtors
OBSERVATION - As I’ve noted before, economists look at the housing market as an indicator of the health of the economy, and these numbers indicate that there are lots of problems continuing to spill over from the disastrous biden regimen. No sign that the economy is going to make a substantial rebound for quite a while yet.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The pilot of the military Black Hawk helicopter that collided with a passenger airplane over Washington, D.C., in January ignored instructions to change course seconds before the crash, according to a new report.
The report, published by the New York Times on Sunday, detailed the Black Hawk’s exchanges with air traffic controllers in the lead-up to the disaster, which left 67 people dead.
According to the report, the Black Hawk pilot, Capt. Rebecca Lobach, was conducting her annual flight evaluation and her co-pilot, Chief Warrant Officer 2 Andrew Loyd Eaves, was serving as her flight instructor.
OBSERVATION - More details at the above link and other news outlets.
BLUF - this captain has all the traits of a DEI position. The news has pretty much ignored the fact that prior to her transfer to the position/unit resulting in her flying into the passenger plane, she was assigned to a brown nosing, rear end kissing assignment at the White House. Pretty strong word - but yes these assignments corrupt the mentality of officers who snag these “career enhancing” slots. They become political masters, not tactical military masters. Personal experience from my time in the Army it that these officers come back with a level of entitlement that is detrimental to the unit. So it doesn’t surprise me that this captain would ignore her flight instructors commands to do her own thing.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Schumer openly calls for another impeachment of Trump should the democrats regain control of the House after the 2026 midterms.
***
A federal judge’s decision to temporarily block President Donald Trump’s executive order aimed at withholding federal funds from sanctuary cities has drawn sharp criticism from legal experts, with George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley calling it one of the most “problematic” challenges to the president’s authority.
On Thursday, U.S. District Judge William H. Orrick, appointed by former President Barack Obama, issued a temporary injunction in Northern California halting Trump’s order to defund cities and counties that refuse to cooperate with federal immigration enforcement.
The executive order directed Trump’s cabinet to evaluate whether sanctuary policies interfere with federal law enforcement and, if so, to withhold funds.
“I think the judge pulled the trigger too fast. You know, this is a judge who said, ‘No, you cannot withhold money from Sanctuary Cities.’”
“But the executive order told his cabinet, Trump’s cabinet, ‘I need you to look at this, evaluate it, and tell me if they’re interfering with federal enforcement, and then to withhold funds’. There’s a lot of runway between here and there in determining what they’re going to do. This judge just went ahead and said, ‘I’m stopping everything,’” Turley said.
OBSERVATION - Turley is by no means a conservative lawyer, but he is one of those rare ones that deals with the laws and judgements from a considerably neutral position. He nails the rush by these activist judges to interject in an almost illegal manner into powers and privileges of the Executive branch.
TRUMP Watch –
FAKE NEWS ALERT -
President Trump has officially warned Barack Obama to stay out of America’s foreign affairs or else face charges for violating the Hatch Act.
This is after Obama made plans to visit El Salvador on his way to the NATO Summit in Costa Rica, which Trump was NOT invited to. Nor would he go.
“He has no authority to speak on behalf of the United States.”
If Obama is brave enough to go, he’ll face US marshals on his return.
OBSERVATION - The claim that Trump warned Obama against visiting El Salvador is completely false. First of all, Costa Rica is not a member of NATO. Hence, a NATO summit would not be organized in the country. The next NATO summit will be held in June 2025 in The Hague, the Netherlands.
Secondly, there is no evidence that Obama is planning a visit to Costa Rica or El Salvador anytime soon, and the Trump administration has issued any sort of warning to the 44th US President.
Information / misinformation is running rampant on the inter webs of late. If it seems too good to be true (which this viral post is), it isn’t.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 24, 2025
- Threat status remains elevated due to potential US / Israeli strike on Iran and Iran using cyber attacks in response.
***
Reports of suspected cyber attack on European power grid - see below
Illegal Immigration –
U.S. Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer warned states of losing federal funding if they fail to comply with President Donald Trump’s directives on rewarding illegal immigrants with tax dollars, according to an April 25 statement issued by the Department of Labor.
“Our nation’s unemployment benefits exist solely for workers who are eligible to receive them,” Chavez-DeRemer wrote in a letter addressed to state governors.
“To qualify for unemployment, one must be able and available to work, actively seeking work, and be legally authorized to accept employment in the United States. Unemployment benefits are not a handout for those in our country illegally.”
The secretary reminded all states that failing to fulfill existing legal obligations will result in the loss of federal funding through the Title III UI administrative grant.
OBSERVATION - One of the biggest incentives here for illegals are the financial ‘benefits’ lavishly spent on them. The second biggest incentive are states and local govts sucking funds from the fed govt to keep illegals here as these funds feed their progressively liberal agendas. Cutting off funding is one key aspect of stopping illegal immigration and turning the hordes back.
***
DEA Rocky Mountain Field Division Special Agent in Charge John Pullen commenting on a recent raid on an illegal alien gang underground nightclub in Colorado Springs, Colorado, reports that out of over 200 hundred people at the club, over 100 illegal aliens were arrested and are being held by ICE.
Far more disturbing is the fact that over a dozen active duty service members were reportedly detained at the club. Pullen said that some of the military working security were involved in criminal activity at the club.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/04/stunner-dea-raid-busted-several-active-duty-military/
OBSERVATION - Several years ago, reports emerged that members of gangs were enlisting in the army in order to gain combat training and make contact within the military for future exploitation. The combat training was in preparation for gangs to be capable of executing low intensity (almost guerrilla like) operations in the US. What was captured here is likely the tip of the iceberg and that under the new leadership of the Military, there will be a more detailed sweep of these lowlifes and the chain of command that failed to see to their discharge.
North/South Korea –
Kremlin: Russia can provide military assistance to North Korea if necessary under the partnership treaty.
***
North Korea has confirmed for the first time the deployment of military equipment and troops to Russia in their war against Ukraine, announcing their participation in the “liberation” Kursk under Article 4 of the North Korean–Russian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership signed in June of 2024. Article 4 of the treaty states that should either nation be “put in a state of war by an armed invasion”, the other will “provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay” in accordance “with Article 51 of the UN Charter and the laws of the DPRK and the Russian Federation.”
Phillipines –
Philippine Marines, National Police officers and Coast Guard members landed on three contested South China Sea features today to assert Manila’s maritime jurisdiction following a similar China Coast Guard action earlier this month.
In mid-April, a China Coast Guard team landed at Sandy Cay—known to China as Tiexian Reef—and displayed a Chinese flag in an assertion of Beijing’s “maritime control” and “sovereign jurisdiction” over the sandbar. Manila’s largest South China Sea possession, Thitu Island, also known by the Philippines as Pagasa, lies only a few nautical miles east of Sandy Cay.
The inter-agency maritime operation deployed from Thitu on Sunday morning. Split among four teams on multiple rubber boats, two teams deployed to Sandy Cay 1, while the other two deployed to Sandy Cay 2 and 3, respectively. China Coast Guard cutter 5102 and seven maritime militia vessels were near the sandbars during the operation.
A National Task Force on the West Philippine Sea statement claimed that the mission reinforced “Philippine authorities’ routine and lawful exercise of maritime domain awareness and jurisdiction over the West Philippine Sea.”
https://news.usni.org/2025/04/27/philippine-forces-land-on-contested-south-china-sea-feature
OBSERVATION - This small sandbar is located to a key Philippine base. The next war with China may well start when shooting begins between Philippines and Chinese vessels.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Putin announced new ceasefire starting 8th May at midnight until midnight of 11th May Putin says the ceasefire is to mark the 80th anniversary of Victory Day.
OBSERVATION - Russia used previous short pauses to regroup, replenish stocks at frontline positions, evacuate casualties, amass personnel, clear ways for further offensive operations
***
North Korea Officially Confirms Troop Deployment in Russia: “We Will Be Faithful to the Implementation of the North Korea-Russia Treaty”
***
Next week could be make-or-break for peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, says U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio
***
Russia has officially declared its conditions for ending the war, according to MFA Lavrov. Among them: Crimea, Sevastopol, “DPR,” “LPR,” Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions must be officially recognized as Russian. Ukraine must lift the ban on negotiations with Russia, renounce NATO membership, and secure a neutral, non-aligned status. Ukraine must undergo “demilitarization and denazification,” all sanctions against Russia must be lifted, and frozen assets returned. Ukraine must also cancel laws limiting the use of Russian language, culture, and churches.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with scattered rain and showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No drone report as I type this up.
Russian losses per 28/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1160 men
+4 tanks
+13 AFVs
+31 artillery
Summary —
Russia’s self declared cease fire is more likely an effort to take pressure off its forces so that they can regroup, rearm and redeploy to sectors of the front that Russia wants to try to exploit for its Spring/Summer offensive plans. Much like the tactical “pauses” over the past year.
In related, Russia continues to demand essentially complete surrender of Ukraine before any long term cease fire / peace negotiations can move forward.
On the ground, moderately heavy fighting continues with some minor gains by Russia.
Europe / NATO General –
Both Spain and Portugal, as well as their capitals of Madrid and Lisbon, are currently suffering from a massive power outage, effecting airports, hospitals, power plants, subways, traffic lights, and other critical infrastructure across Western Europe. The cause of the outage is still unknown, though some are suspecting a major cyberattack by a hostile power like Russia.
Parts of the Netherlands and Belgium are also affected. Believed to be linked to the main European power network
OBSERVATION - If a cyberattack, and fully linked to Russia, this could open a whole new realm of pushback by Europe. It would essentially confirm Russia’s hostile intents towards Europe beyond Ukraine.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025
At this stage, a lot of the information is not confirmed and in some cases fully RUMINT
***
Military movements and actions -
Pakistani forces have reportedly deployed troops and tanks along the Narowal border with India in Punjab.
Pakistani media claims that its forces have successfully shot down an Indian drone along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir.
Political actions -
The UK, US, Canada, Russia, Australia, NATO, and China have reportedly issued new travel alerts for Pakistan due to escalating security threats following the deadly Pahalgam terror attack, with heightened risks at the India-Pakistan border.
Unconfirmed reports that Russia and China have warned India not to launch a large scale attack on Pakistan.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Tight hold on information on the Indian side. Reports of Pakistani deployments are likely mirrored to some extent by India. It is hard to gauge at this stage just how close either side is to initiate combat on a large scale.
Russian and Chinese involvement is a growing concern. I don’t see them actually committing military forces to Pakistan, but providing supplies and intelligence. They may also be more concerned about the use of nukes.
Other alignments have Israel in contact with India and Iran in contact with Pakistan. This is developing into a more complex international involvement.
I still see potential large scale combat initiating by the end of the week barring any significant actions to negotiate a settlement to calm things down.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu lays out conditions for any Iranian nuke plan
- IAF hits significant underground storage of Hezbollah precision munitions in Beirut
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Netanyahu sets two conditions for a deal with Iran:
- All nuclear infrastructure in Iran should be dismantled,
- Iran’s ICBM development should be limited.
“That is the deal we could liberate. Anything short of that could bring in the opposite result,” Israeli Prime minister said at the Jewish News Syndicate summit.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
A major forensic investigation by Henry Jackson Society reveals how Hamas has manipulated Gaza fatality data—inflating civilian deaths while concealing its own to distort the narrative.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/26/hamas-70pc-women-children-dead-claim-false/
***
Lebanese media: Hamxs is willing to accept Egyptian, Arab, or even international forces in Gaza as part of a deal to end the war.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A fire and heavy smoke erupted following an Israeli airstrike on a building in the Hadath area in the southern suburbs of Beirut.
Israeli statement: We attacked an infrastructure in Beirut where Hezbollah precision missiles were located underground in a known Shura Council meeting place .
Lebanese President Aoun condemned the Israeli strike on Beirut and urged the US and France, as ceasefire sponsors, to pressure Israel to stop violating the agreement.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Sailors on a Turkish vessel at anchor off Houthi controlled Yemen captured a massive air strike, likely from a B2, on port facilities.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Eyes continue to be focused on the US / Iran negotiations over its nuclear program. See below
Hamas continues to show a bipolar attitude towards a hostage agreement and associated peace agreement. Now they are willing for anyone to take control after previously refusing any concept.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.
***
The massive fire at Iran’s Bandar port rages into its third day. The death toll has climbed to 48, with over 1,200 injured and rising. Explosions and fires continue to rock Bandar Abbas as more containers detonate.
Video released on social media shows the most clear initial few seconds of the source fire that triggered the massive explosion and fires at Bandar Abbas. Video shows a container bursting into flame with distinctive orange smoke and flame. The orange color is an indicator of the combustion of ammonium nitrate.
Iranian Interior Ministry: “The explosion at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port was caused by negligence, and those responsible have already been identified”
***
Iranian Foreign Ministry: Iran is open to the role of Russia, China, and Europe in reaching an agreement with Washington.
OVERALL OBSERVATION -
First, the Bandar Abbas port disaster. The video released showing a container bursting into flame can point to a couple of things. Israeli tampering or just gross mishandling of the shipment. Iran is more softy coming out with the mishandling aspect. Bottom line, shipping into / out of the port are going to be seriously hampered for a long time.
Second, nuke negotiations are showing that Iran is unwilling to rid itself of its program and in some ways seem to be redefining terms to make it sound like they want to comply with US demands. Does Trump think Iran is progressing enough? have to see.
Saudi Arabia –
According to Reuters, U.S. President Trump plans to offer Saudi Arabia an arms package worth well over $100 Billion during his visit to the Middle East in May. The package will reportedly include advance weapons not previously offered to the Saudis, such as aircraft, air defenses, drones and radars, in an attempt to convince them to halt the further purchase of weapons from China.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1916674123725447194?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
-----------------------------------
I wondered about that raid - seemed odd. Great stuff today - what's the concern about China and Russia working together with Pakistan? They seem to be working together a lot these days. Thanks to that Sniffer, Biden
Thanks Godzilla
Thank You for your efforts in compiling these assessments. My belief is your assessments are completely on target.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Across the UK, mass bee die-offs are being reported just as the government officially acknowledges a sinister new operation: spraying chemicals into the atmosphere to block out the sun. Coincidence? Hardly.
The UK government has now admitted it is funding large-scale solar geoengineering experiments, committing £50 million through the Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA) to tamper with the sun’s rays. Techniques like stratospheric aerosol injection and marine cloud brightening — once dismissed as conspiracy theories — are now being actively developed.
Beekeepers from Kent to the Highlands are finding fields littered with dead bees, describing “swarms dropping from the sky” and hives going eerily silent overnight. Bees depend on sunlight to navigate, feed, and survive. Disrupting the sun’s intensity and the natural atmospheric balance spells a death sentence — not just for bees, but for the entire food chain.
Officials, meanwhile, continue to gaslight the public, pretending these deaths are “mysterious” and assuring citizens the geoengineering program is “harmless research.”
OBSERVATION -
The credibility of the ‘peoples voice’ is not well established in my book, but the scenario is plausible.
One repeating theme of the globalists is to depopulate the planet to ‘sustainable’ levels. In this case, information is lacking on the current extent for the climatic change experiments and locations in relationship to where the bee die offs are occurring.
This is a dangerous development if true - bees are essential the the food chain of the world. Dimming the sun’s light will also cause crop failures, and reduced plant growth with decreased CO2 absorption.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated Jan 19, 2025
May Day - May 1st
(FO). Far Left groups are joining Democrat politicians and progressive activists in calls for direct action demonstrations against the Trump administration. Far Left groups are joining Democrat politicians and progressive activists in calls for direct action demonstrations against the Trump administration. Pritzker called for mass protests and disruption - “Republicans cannot know a moment of peace,” he says, swaying their portraits will one day be put in museums “reserved for tyrants and traitors” Over the weekend, Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) warned supporters that, “There’s not going to be an election in 2028 if we don’t win this fight now.” So far, organizers have scheduled 900+ May Day protests and demonstrations, to take place between Thursday, 01 May and Sunday, 04 May.
And revolutionary anarchists in Seattle, Tacoma, Olympia, Portland, and other cities have scheduled direct action demonstrations that could turn into black bloc riots. Revolutionary anarchists in Olympia, WA are promoting a “roving economic blockade” on May Day in which they appear to be intending to block highway traffic during rush hour.
Two other revolutionary anarchist events – one in Seattle, WA and the other in Portland, OR – scheduled for the evening of May Day, which could result in direct action demonstrations (graffiti, property damage, arson, etc.) later that night. In Tacoma, Washington, a number of Far Left groups are reportedly planning a march to the Northwest Detention Center on May Day evening, which could also turn into a direct action demonstration.
This is shaping up to be the most disruptive weekend and probably year since 2020.
OBSERVATION - Forward Observer folks are noting what appears to be an effort by the extremists to leave more open social media sites and converse on strictly private sites and / or in person are unquieting indicators of a ramping of of planning for acts of violence. Their assessment marks a key change in the potential trend of violence.
May Day is a traditional day of protests and violence by leftists across the world. The marxist left here in America has grown increasingly frustrated at the inability of democrats to effectively stop the Trump juggernaut, and that frustration is shifting more and more towards violence. On an increasing trend come the calls from major democrat leaders like Schumer, Murphy and Pritzker for out and out violence directed towards trump supporters. This may develop into a make or break moment for the violent left. They still haven’t gotten their ‘anchor’ issue to rally the sheeple around. DOGE PR has been pretty successful in educating the masses on the waste and abuse in govt spending. Deportation of illegals hasn’t gathered a lot of support out side of already radicalized individuals. IMHO this is due to the very open arrests and deportation of the gangster level illegals. Cries are trying to shift to the arrests of the two judges - again lacking traction because of the very overt criminal actions of those judges.
It is critical to note the increasing calls for violence by democrat political leaders - listen to what they say because they mean what they say. They are no longer playing word games about it.
In a parallel universe, the sad leftists on sites like Redditt and Instagram are posting calls for more and more violence as well. They may talk big, but not all will put their money where their mouths are. Unfortunately there are those who are nut jobs enough to try something or join the antifa related riots.
FO is not predicting Floyd level riots, except for Antifa hot beds. The big question is whether or not their organizing is enough to give the democrats confidence in being able to release the brown shirts later this summer.
***
Hamas supporters begin fighting with police officers after they tried to break through the police line to reach the Brooklyn synagogue overnight.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
(FO) In a recent article, legendary former hedge fund manager Ray Dalio said the global monetary and political orders are on the brink of breaking down due to unsustainable, bad fundamentals that can be easily seen and measured.
Dalio says that foreign investors are realizing the U.S. fiscal situation is unsustainable, and “assuming that one can sell and lend to the U.S. and get paid back with hard (i.e. not devalued) dollars on their U.S. debt holdings is naive thinking, so other plans have to be made.”
OBSERVATION - Dalio has been touted as being pretty smart and worth listening to.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Michigan Rep. Shri Thanedar announces impeachment proceedings against Trump for deporting Salvadoran gangster to El Salvador
OBSERVATION - Not going anywhere. Worth noting he is facing a primary challenger and this may be a stunt to build up is progressive creds.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
Canada has gone fully over to the dark side with the landslide victory by the left. The conservative snatched defeat out of the jaws of victory. Just when you thought they were over Trudeau now they get Trudeau 2.0
TRUMP Watch –
Trump has hit his 100 day mile marker as president. Almost predictably, the leftist media has concocted “polls” showing Trump to have the worst favorables of all time - going back to the Mesozoic.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Wall Street Journal reports Russia is quietly building massive military forces near Europe’s borders, preparing for a future conflict with NATO. New army bases, new troops, new railroads. Russia could be ready for a major war within 5 years.
According to WSJ, Russia is expanding military bases near Finland, Estonia, and Latvia, aiming to station tens of thousands of troops along NATO’s borders.
They’re building new rail lines, upgrading arsenals, and recruiting 30,000–40,000 soldiers per month with large signing bonuses.
Western officials warn Russia could be ready for a major war within 5 years or sooner if Ukraine reaches a ceasefire.
Meanwhile, new Russian tanks and artillery are being stockpiled inside Russia, not sent to Ukraine.
Russia’s military is now larger than when the Ukraine war began.
OBSERVATION - I’m viewing this report with a great deal of skepticism. Recruitment of 30-40K per month is nearly enough to back fill losses per month in Ukraine, so in reality Russia has to be recruiting in the 80K range to fulfill its current war commitment as well as this alleged buildup. There is no real evidence of Russia being successful at this level of conscription.
Russia may be stockpiling new equipment, satisfied with using old, cold war era stocks given the high losses in Ukraine. Still, sanctions and other issues have greatly slowed production of Russia’s war machine.
I just don’t see Russia having the capabilities of doing both under current conditions.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with scattered rain and showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Last night, Russia launched 100 drones and decoys at Ukraine. Mobile fire groups shot down 37 Shaheds and neutralized 47 decoy drones without serious damage. The attack targeted Kharkiv, Donetsk, Dnipro, and Kyiv regions.
Explosion was reported in Odesa from a ballistic missile strike
Russian losses per 29/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1060 men
+5 tanks
+14 AFVs
+42 artillery
+1 AD system
Kharkiv Front -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Doroshivka village of Kharkiv region of Ukraine
Russian Territory –
Oil depot caught fire near Novorossiysk, missile attack alert was declared shortly before
Summary —
Nothing really spectacular along the front, moderate fighting with some Russian territorial gains. Drones continue to hit Ukraine civilian targets.
Russia continues its hardline on its demands for as ceasefire and peace accord. Europe mouths support, but Russia still has them scared of retribution
Europe / NATO General –
After effects from yesterday’s power outage in Spain and Portugal are still rippling across the region, and officials claim they don’t have any idea as to the cause. Preliminary reports suggest a failure in the interconnected European power grid, possibly exacerbated by high electricity demand and challenges in balancing renewable energy sources.
In a follow-up statement issued late on April 28, REN suggested that a “rare atmospheric phenomenon” was responsible for triggering the Iberian Peninsula blackout and provided additional technical clarification regarding its potential effects on the grid.
According to REN, rapid and localized temperature fluctuations in Spain’s interior regions generated mechanical instabilities in several critical 400 kV lines, causing a rare form of conductor vibration. These vibrations, identified as a variant of aeolian vibration exacerbated by thermal gradients, led to transient shifts in electrical impedance along multiple transmission corridors.
However, a more likely reason is the development in Spain on April 16th when it declared that its full power grid was to be powered entirely by renewable resources - wind, solar and hydro. Spain suddenly lost a lot of power and it didn’t have conventional power supplies (now mostly natural gas) spun up to buffer any losses. The loss of power generated brown out conditions that triggered the shut down of sections of the power grid. The difficulty in reestablishment of power likely resulted in the lack of conventional power capabilities to take up the missing renewables, which slowly came back on line.
Hence the “rare atmospheric phenomenon” is cover for the failure of the renewable grid Spain has so heavily invested in.
BTW - this grid failure is not unlike one that hit Kalifornia a number of years back, when a sudden cessation of the coastal breezes caused the sudden loss of wind power, and Kalifornian utilities didn’t have back up conventional power spun up in time to stabilize the grid and lacked sufficient capacity for several days, resulting in millions of dollars worth of lost produce and other items.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025
At this stage, a lot of the information is not confirmed and in some cases fully RUMINT
***
Military movements and actions -
More sporadic gunfire along the border overnight
Pakistan’s Minister of Defense is claiming that a military incursion by India is imminent, with bases and positions being reinforced along the Line of Control (LoC).
Pakistan states that the country’s military has been placed on “high alert” in anticipation of aggression from India, adding that they will only use their arsenal of nuclear weapons if “there is a direct threat to our existence.”
Political actions -
Unconfirmed - China has granted the access of its spy satellites to Pakistan for monitoring Indian military movement
Indian State-level BJP ministers are supporting the Balochistan liberation movement saying that Pakistan is likely to be split in two again and that the Balochistan movement “stands as a symbol of an indigenous people’s enduring aspiration for dignity, rights, and control over their own destiny.”
If Balochistan is successful, this could actually be a threat to Pakistan’s existence and prompt a nuclear response.
Turkish President Erdogan:
“We reaffirm our strong support for the Pakistani people.”
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
No real change from yesterday. The pressure needle is continuing to rise into the red zone, with the likelihood of real fighting by the end of the week, absent any mediations efforts.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Action picking up in Gaza and is expected to rise even further.
- Potential for Israeli involvement in Syria in support of the Druze.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Defense official: Israel is preparing to expand its military operation in Gaza, call-up significant number of reservists - Ynet.
***
Israel is preparing to significantly escalate its military operations in Gaza following the collapse of hostage deal negotiations, a senior defense official said Monday. The move will include a major call-up of reservists and intensified fighting across the Strip.
***
Israeli artillery launches raids in central Gaza, and buildings continue to be bombed along the Morag axis.
***
The Israeli army says it foiled an attempt to smuggle ten assault rifles into Israel from Egypt last night, using a drone. The drone had been identified crossing the border from Egypt into Israel, before it was downed by troops of the Border Defense Corps’ Caracal Battalion
NOTE - This is why Israel is set on controlling the Philadelphia corridor along the border with Egypt.
***
Israeli airstrikes in Gaza killed three senior terrorists, the IDF says, including Saʿid Abu Hasnan, who led the Kissufim attack on October 7.
Also killed were Mustafa al-Mutawwak, Hamas operations chief in Jabalia, and Ali Sarfiti, a PFLP operative who funded Judea and Samaria terror plots.
***
Channel 12 in Israel reports that the IDF has begun an operation to clear the area in the northern Gaza Strip. In short, hundreds to thousands of acres are set on fire and the tunnel shafts and terrorists who emerge from them are exposed.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Clashes between Jolani forces and the Druze have begun in Jaramana southeast of Damascus, Syria. HTS convoys were also reportedly advancing toward Suwayda in southern Syria, threatening the Druze community over alleged insults to the “Prophet Muhammad.” Syrian media reports that Jolani forces have sent reinforcements to the Druze city of Jaramana, Syria. Jolani backed forces have pledged to wage Jihad against the Israel backed Druze.
Reports of Israeli aircraft (manned or droned) over the area of fighting.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Houthi-appointed governor of Saada province, Sheikh Mohammed Jaber Awad, has been eliminated in a U.S. Navy strike.
The USS Truman lost an F14 fighter overboard yesterday. The initial report coming out was that the Truman was forced to take evasive action due to incoming fire from the Houthis. If anyone has seen videos of these carriers executing an emergency turn, they really tilt the ships hard over. Unconfirmed report are that the Houthis used a complex strike package combining ballistic and cruise missiles and drones to force the evasive action. If this is true, then there is a significant hole in the defenses around the carrier.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel is increasing the pressure in Gaza following Hamas rejection recent hostage/peace offers.
Monitoring Houthi after action on the Truman incident. Closest threat to the flattop since operations began. And this follows massive airstrikes.
Most critical item is the current action in S Syria. Fighting is by Jolani supporting militias, and not the ‘formal’ Syrian military. These are the same groups who rampaged across Syrian areas that were home to Assad’s clan. Israel has pledged to defend the Druze in the region as needed because their territory provides a buffer against Jolani’s syria and Israel. At current, it looks like the Syrian military have blocked off access to the region, preventing more of the jihadi oriented militias to join the fighting. If the situation escalates, Israel may begin airstrikes against Jolani affiliated forces.
See Syria below for more
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.
***
After more than 50 hours - Iranian authorities announced the extinguishing of the fire at the port of Bandar Abbas in Iran
***
Deadly explosion hit a gunpowder warehouse in Meymeh, Isfahan, with casualties reported. The site operates under Iran’s National Security Council. Cause unknown.
***
Iranian Foreign Ministry: Iran is open to the role of Russia, China, and Europe in reaching an agreement with Washington.
Iran has proposed meeting the European parties to a 2015 nuclear deal, possibly in Rome this Friday if talks resume with the United States, four diplomats said on Monday, cautioning that there has yet to be a response from the Europeans to the idea.
Iran’s reach out to Britain, France and Germany, known as the E3, suggests Tehran is keeping its options open, but also wants to assess where the Europeans stand on the possible re-imposition of U.N. sanctions before October, when a resolution ratifying the 2015 accord expires.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hygeur6kgl
OBSERVATION - Iran’s move toward’s European involvement is an obvious attempt to create a gap between the US and Europe. It would further delay any substantial talks / accords, meeting Iran’s objectives to delay and obfuscate these negotiations. At this stage, IMHO Trump is not seriously coupled with Europe over his non nuclear stance with Iran and has not issued any calls for support. However, if Iran is able to get favorable positions from European nations, it will bolster its arguments that they are negotiating in faith, defusing any US narrative to the contrary.
Syria -
A Syrian security source: The General Security was not involved in the clashes that took place in the Jaramana area in the Damascus countryside, and attempted to break up the clashes between “irregular groups” in the Jaramana area, which resulted in at least two dead from its forces.
Syrian security sources told Al Jazeera: Six militants were killed and 12 wounded during clashes in Jaramana, in the Damascus countryside.
Roads to Jaramana are currently closed by the Security forces, in order to prevent further escalation after last night clashes
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.