CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated Jan 19, 2025
May Day - May 1st
Weekend here, there continue to be minor protests covering a wide range of grievances across the country. As in the past, there is no evidence of significant violence or vandalism, though localized incidents can occur. Be situationally aware.
***
Democratic political strategist James Carville unleashed another tirade on his podcast Politics War Room, asking whether Americans should wait for President Donald Trump to fully become “Hitler” before taking action. During the episode “Is Trump Really Like Hitler?” Carville responded to recent remarks made by CNN host Michael Smerconish. Smerconish said that while many people dislike Trump, he should not be treated as if he were Hitler. However, Carville didn’t agree. “Do we wait until he’s Hitler? At what point do you say, ‘This guy is a threat?’”
https://wokespy.com/james-carvilles-podcast-eruption-do-we-wait-until-trump-is-hitler/
OBSERVATION - Often this would end up in the “Political” category, but in this instance Carville is calling for violence against Trump, the administration as well as supporters. He is speaking the desires and plans of the marxist left buried in the democrat party. Dehumanizing the opponent is key to getting their sheeple willing to become violent for it their target is not human, their actions are justified and moral.
This is part of the escalating rhetoric by the left across many mediums. At this stage we need to take them at their word
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Army recently surpassed its fiscal year 2025 reenlistment goal by retaining 15,600 Soldiers, 800 more than the 14,800 target, well before the fiscal year ends on September 30, 2025. Soldiers whose service contracts expire between October 1, 2024, and September 30, 2025, were eligible for reenlistment starting in March 2024.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Democrats (leftists in particular) are attempting to rally behind the judges arrested this past week for violation of immigration laws. Their grievances are founded on completely false narratives concerning the reason for their arrests. I suspect that this will gain very, very little traction since the truth behind the action of those judges are pretty well established and impossible to refute. Support centered in the mind-numbed elements. Furor likely to subside like the Garcia ‘uproar’ as polling shows them to loose even more support from the public. BTW, public support of deportations appears to be steady to increasing.
Illegal Immigration –
Wisconsin Governor Tony Evers administration instructs all state employees to help illegal immigrants avoid ICE.
OBSERVATION - Essentially Evers is telling state employees to break the law, pure and simple. This follows the arrest of a Wisconsin judge for aiding and abetting an illegal to escape pending ICE arrest. Wisconsin may become the spear point of arrests of state officials - even the governor himself - for violations of federal immigration laws, at felony levels.
As an open act of defiance of the fed govt, his action can also be seen within the sphere of CW2 alignments and actions.
***
Federal law enforcement officers have been authorized to detain and arrest suspected members of Venezuelan terrorist organization Tren de Aragua without a warrant.
An internal memo, obtained by USA Today, states that law-enforcement officers do not require a warrant to arrest members of Tren de Aragua, whose members have been scheduled for expedited deportation by the President under the 1798 Alien Enemies Act.
The memo advises officers that they should, nevertheless, “consider consulting federal prosecutors in the relevant district to obtain criminal search warrants and/or criminal arrest warrants” for immigration violations.
“While the ultimate goal is immediate identification and removal of Alien Enemies, coordination with federal prosecutors—who are required to support these operations at every step—may enhance officers’ ability to conduct apprehensions safely and efficiently, and may assist in the collection of evidence identifying additional Tren de Aragua members in the vicinity of the Alien Enemy to be apprehended,” the memo states.
OBSERVATION - A very aggressive move forward as the 1798 Alien Enemies Act is under severe attack by activist judges. It may indicate that the end game will be the USSC having to follow the law and support the use of the act.
***
A Chinese-owned and operated factory complex in Ohio illegally imported workers from China, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Ohio.
Last week, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of Ohio released a statement saying that federal officials had seized $126 million in assets related to an investigation into illegal staffing and money laundering.
“It is alleged that many of the workers were illegally smuggled into the United States, primarily through Mexico, and encouraged to travel to the Dayton area to be employed by one of the target entities and serve as a workforce at the various factories,” the office stated.
One of the companies raided included Fuyao Glass America, the company that appeared in the Obama’s prize-winning 2019 documentary, American Factory.
OBSERVATION - Essentially could be considered human trafficking for slave labor. The article doesn’t mention if the employed illegals managed to skim the money pot of govt handouts to supplement their pay.
China -
Not yet hitting but could. China could face sanctions for shipping rocket fuel to Iran in violations of sanctions against it.
Russia -
Trump: Russia’s recent bombing of Ukrainian civilian areas makes me think Putin should be dealt with differently, such as through sanctions.
Trump: Putin may not want to stop the war in Ukraine
At a meeting with Witkoff, Putin says Russia is ready to negotiate with Ukraine without any preconditions, - Kremlin’s spokesperson said
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with scattered rain and showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 149 drones at Ukraine overnight. 57 drones were shot down, and 67 decoy drones were neutralized without reaching their targets. Damage reported in Zhytomyr, Dnipro, Odesa, Donetsk, Sumy, and Cherkasy regions.
Russian losses per 27/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1030 men
+8 tanks
+5 AFVs
+42 artillery
+1 MLRS
Kursk -
Russia continues to claim it has cleared Ukraine forces from Kursk.
Russia attacks are less than 1/2 what they have been for the past week.
Summary —
putin continues to play the US and Witkoff.
Fighting has been moderately heavy with minor terrain captures by both sides. Ukraine’s excursion into Kursk is close to an end with Ukraine essentially buying more time for its traditional nasty meat grinder defenses to be established in Ukraine before final withdrawal.
Ukraine is also being forced to be more honest with its Shahed reporting. This could be in part to build upon propaganda that the strikes are hitting civilian targets and not military ones.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025
At this stage, a lot of the information is not confirmed and in some cases fully RUMINT
***
Military movements and actions -
According to multiple reports, clashes between Pakistani and Indian forces have now spread to the Samahni and Neelum areas along the LoC (Line of Control).
Samahni is a key valley sector in the south, while Neelum is a mountainous region in the north.
The fighting now covers multiple sectors, indicating a broader escalation compared to previous nights.
Unconfirmed reports that an Indian checkpoint on the Line of Control has reportedly been destroyed by a Pakistani ATGM
Political actions -
Pakistan puts all doctors, nurses, paramedics and ambulance drivers on standby as declaration of war imminent
***
Flooding starts in Pakistan after India unexpectedly releases water in the Jhelum River without prior notification.
Locals worry that the situations could get much worse if the water keeps flowing from India.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1916101372941828259
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
If a full blow war is to break out, it is likely in the next week after both sides get their forces in place. Expansion on border skirmishes is concerning, but so far they have been limited to mostly small arms with some artillery.
The Pakistani flooding is something I suspected would happen but didn’t speak on. I’ve noted that the Indian dams are mostly hydropower run of river flow and without substantial storage capability . So they shut the dams down, filling them up to their limited capacity, then break open the spill gates and release a flood. Such surges in flood level flows are not useful for Pakistani farmers who rely upon steady flow rates. Flooding also damages towns and infrastructure, forcing Pakistan resources away from a potential war. Once the water levels have lowered in the lakes sufficiently, then the gates will close and the rivers dry out again, until the next flood surge.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel putting together a plan to supply aid to Gazan ‘civilians’ and deny Hamas access
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan said this evening:
“We have decided not to consider any proposals that do not include a complete end to the fighting.”
***
The IDF is establishing a new humanitarian zone in Rafah between the Morag and Philadelphi corridors.
Palestinians, after security checks, will be allowed to enter. A tent city will be built, with humanitarian aid delivered by civilian companies, likely American.
The plan aims to separate civilians from terrorists and prevent aid from reaching Hamxs.
***
Various airstrikes across Gaza overnight.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Sources in Yemen report that senior commander Abu Mohsen a-Rassas, head of security in Marab, was eliminated in a U.S. Navy strike along with other pro-Iranian Houthi terrorists.
***
Houthi ballistic missile was intercepted prior to crossing into Israeli territory overnight.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Saudi news reports that Egypt, a mediator in the hostage - ceasefire negotiations - is demanding a “full file” from Hamas detailing the condition of the hostages in Gaza
Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister: We cannot accept the starvation of the brotherly Palestinian people or the use of starvation as a weapon.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel maintains the initiative in Gaza, calling the shots and tightening the loop around Hama’s neck. The latest humanitarian aid program moves Gazans into cleared area - no tunnels or weapons stockpiles. They will do the security screening to make sure nothing gets smuggled in and identify Hamas trying to hide there. With noncombatants out of the way and getting fed, Israel can focus further remaining elements of Hamas.
Lebanon and Syria, nothing significant to report
Iran’s clock continues to wind down.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.
***
More on the massive explosion and fires that have ravaged the Rajaee Port in Iran.
Large parts of the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas have been entirely destroyed by yesterday morning’s explosion on the shores of the Persian Gulf. Footage of the port shows a number of warehouses as well as other buildings having suffered significant damage, while firefighting and search-and-rescue operations continue.
Yesterday’s explosion and fires are believed to have been caused by mishandling of explosive materials, starting an out-of-control fire that came in contact with a single and/or several chemicals being improperly stored by Iranian Port Authorities. The chemicals which the fire came in contact with are believed to have either been a high-explosive fertilizer like ammonium nitrate and/or a compound used in the production of solid rocket fuel such as sodium perchlorate, both of which are known to come through the port of Bandar Abbas via China.
The presence of such explosive material is being confirmed to be from a shipment of solid rocket fuel material, according to AP, citing security firm Ambrey. Earlier reports said two Iranian ships left China carrying 1,000 tons of sodium perchlorate for the IRGC.
The death toll from yesterday’s explosion at Iran’s Rajaei Port has risen to 25, with more than 1,139 injured.
Emergency crews have been fighting the blazes for over the past 24 hours with secondary explosions now being reported hitting containers and reigniting the fires this afternoon.
Aerial views/photography suggest that the most intense explosions and fire were from three large warehouses that were close together. Iranian journalist Mohamad Ahwaze writes: “Aerial footage shows explosions at three separate locations in the port of Bandar Abbas, refuting claims of a single blast.”
The area was surrounded with stacked containers and smaller warehouses that appear to have been destroyed by the fire.
Shahid Rajaee Port is Iran’s largest port, handling 85% of all loading and unloading of containers in the country. It is also the 2nd largest container port in the entire Middle East region.
Spokesman for Iran’s National Security Committee: According to preliminary reports, the Rajaee Port incident has nothing to do with our defense sector’s activities.
Israeli officials state that Israel was not behind this morning’s explosion at the port of Bandar Abbas in Southern Iran, according to Channel 12.
OBSERVATION -
Rocket fuel mix is not part of “our defense sector’s activities” has gotta be the most stupid statement of the morning. This disaster has seriously impacted warehouse and container storage areas. There is no evidence that the actual port facilities to offload ships has been impacted. However, these support areas will be out of commission for a while.
Key item coming out of this is the fact that China is supplying Iran with rocket fuel. This is key because Israel took out the solid fuel production facilities and their mixers. Iran now is fully exposed (along with China) importing these fuels they can no longer produce internally.
***
Report in the Wall Street Journal: Major disagreements were recorded today in talks between Iran and the US, although the parties ultimately claimed that the talks were useful and positive. The disagreements centered mainly on the question of whether Iran could continue to enrich uranium on its own, and also on the US’s desire to include Iran’s missile project in the agreement.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Tehran state TV, “Some of our differences are very serious.”
OBSERVATION - Official statement tried to put a smiley face on the disagreements. Allowing Iran to enrich their own uranium is tantamount to them retaining their nuclear weapons program.
Are these disagreements enough to push Trump across the red line and deal more harshly with Iran? I believed yesterday’s ‘talks’ will be a key date as to whether or not Trump sees enough progress to delay military action. These ‘differences’ are very close to that red line.
Misc of Note –
May is around the corner and already wildfires are becoming a problem in some parts of the country. For you Freepers living in woodland interface areas or flat out in the middle of the woods, take the time NOW to reduce fuels from around your homes/properties, update your evacuation plans and pack up your bags in the event of a short to no notice evacuation order. Double check on your possible evacuation route - and actually drive them. Don’t rely on Google maps for route conditions. And as always, as fire season progresses, increase your situational awareness accordingly.
Hey Carville - Trump wasn't 'Hitler' his first four years and he left the White House on the same day as every other past President AND he was NOT a dictator Day One - he works with Congress like every other President. So maybe you need to rethink a position that makes democrats look like nut cases to most Americans.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Interesting article concerning the turmoil at the WEF regarding Schwab’s resignation and possible internal civil war. Too much to post here.
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/04/coup-at-the-world-economic-forum/
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated Jan 19, 2025
May Day - May 1st
Some minor violence over the weekend but otherwise pretty tame. Watching to see how the next organized protests develop.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
China make biggest cancellation of US pork orders (12,000 tons) since 2020 as US pork imports face 172% tariff.
Which means bacon in the US about to go limit down
OBSERVATION - Watch the stores and get stocked up when prices drop.
***
Existing home sales fell 5.9% in March ahead of the busy spring selling season as the median price topped $400,000 – the highest median home price for any March, according to the National Association of Realtors
OBSERVATION - As I’ve noted before, economists look at the housing market as an indicator of the health of the economy, and these numbers indicate that there are lots of problems continuing to spill over from the disastrous biden regimen. No sign that the economy is going to make a substantial rebound for quite a while yet.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The pilot of the military Black Hawk helicopter that collided with a passenger airplane over Washington, D.C., in January ignored instructions to change course seconds before the crash, according to a new report.
The report, published by the New York Times on Sunday, detailed the Black Hawk’s exchanges with air traffic controllers in the lead-up to the disaster, which left 67 people dead.
According to the report, the Black Hawk pilot, Capt. Rebecca Lobach, was conducting her annual flight evaluation and her co-pilot, Chief Warrant Officer 2 Andrew Loyd Eaves, was serving as her flight instructor.
OBSERVATION - More details at the above link and other news outlets.
BLUF - this captain has all the traits of a DEI position. The news has pretty much ignored the fact that prior to her transfer to the position/unit resulting in her flying into the passenger plane, she was assigned to a brown nosing, rear end kissing assignment at the White House. Pretty strong word - but yes these assignments corrupt the mentality of officers who snag these “career enhancing” slots. They become political masters, not tactical military masters. Personal experience from my time in the Army it that these officers come back with a level of entitlement that is detrimental to the unit. So it doesn’t surprise me that this captain would ignore her flight instructors commands to do her own thing.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Schumer openly calls for another impeachment of Trump should the democrats regain control of the House after the 2026 midterms.
***
A federal judge’s decision to temporarily block President Donald Trump’s executive order aimed at withholding federal funds from sanctuary cities has drawn sharp criticism from legal experts, with George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley calling it one of the most “problematic” challenges to the president’s authority.
On Thursday, U.S. District Judge William H. Orrick, appointed by former President Barack Obama, issued a temporary injunction in Northern California halting Trump’s order to defund cities and counties that refuse to cooperate with federal immigration enforcement.
The executive order directed Trump’s cabinet to evaluate whether sanctuary policies interfere with federal law enforcement and, if so, to withhold funds.
“I think the judge pulled the trigger too fast. You know, this is a judge who said, ‘No, you cannot withhold money from Sanctuary Cities.’”
“But the executive order told his cabinet, Trump’s cabinet, ‘I need you to look at this, evaluate it, and tell me if they’re interfering with federal enforcement, and then to withhold funds’. There’s a lot of runway between here and there in determining what they’re going to do. This judge just went ahead and said, ‘I’m stopping everything,’” Turley said.
OBSERVATION - Turley is by no means a conservative lawyer, but he is one of those rare ones that deals with the laws and judgements from a considerably neutral position. He nails the rush by these activist judges to interject in an almost illegal manner into powers and privileges of the Executive branch.
TRUMP Watch –
FAKE NEWS ALERT -
President Trump has officially warned Barack Obama to stay out of America’s foreign affairs or else face charges for violating the Hatch Act.
This is after Obama made plans to visit El Salvador on his way to the NATO Summit in Costa Rica, which Trump was NOT invited to. Nor would he go.
“He has no authority to speak on behalf of the United States.”
If Obama is brave enough to go, he’ll face US marshals on his return.
OBSERVATION - The claim that Trump warned Obama against visiting El Salvador is completely false. First of all, Costa Rica is not a member of NATO. Hence, a NATO summit would not be organized in the country. The next NATO summit will be held in June 2025 in The Hague, the Netherlands.
Secondly, there is no evidence that Obama is planning a visit to Costa Rica or El Salvador anytime soon, and the Trump administration has issued any sort of warning to the 44th US President.
Information / misinformation is running rampant on the inter webs of late. If it seems too good to be true (which this viral post is), it isn’t.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 24, 2025
- Threat status remains elevated due to potential US / Israeli strike on Iran and Iran using cyber attacks in response.
***
Reports of suspected cyber attack on European power grid - see below
Illegal Immigration –
U.S. Secretary of Labor Lori Chavez-DeRemer warned states of losing federal funding if they fail to comply with President Donald Trump’s directives on rewarding illegal immigrants with tax dollars, according to an April 25 statement issued by the Department of Labor.
“Our nation’s unemployment benefits exist solely for workers who are eligible to receive them,” Chavez-DeRemer wrote in a letter addressed to state governors.
“To qualify for unemployment, one must be able and available to work, actively seeking work, and be legally authorized to accept employment in the United States. Unemployment benefits are not a handout for those in our country illegally.”
The secretary reminded all states that failing to fulfill existing legal obligations will result in the loss of federal funding through the Title III UI administrative grant.
OBSERVATION - One of the biggest incentives here for illegals are the financial ‘benefits’ lavishly spent on them. The second biggest incentive are states and local govts sucking funds from the fed govt to keep illegals here as these funds feed their progressively liberal agendas. Cutting off funding is one key aspect of stopping illegal immigration and turning the hordes back.
***
DEA Rocky Mountain Field Division Special Agent in Charge John Pullen commenting on a recent raid on an illegal alien gang underground nightclub in Colorado Springs, Colorado, reports that out of over 200 hundred people at the club, over 100 illegal aliens were arrested and are being held by ICE.
Far more disturbing is the fact that over a dozen active duty service members were reportedly detained at the club. Pullen said that some of the military working security were involved in criminal activity at the club.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/04/stunner-dea-raid-busted-several-active-duty-military/
OBSERVATION - Several years ago, reports emerged that members of gangs were enlisting in the army in order to gain combat training and make contact within the military for future exploitation. The combat training was in preparation for gangs to be capable of executing low intensity (almost guerrilla like) operations in the US. What was captured here is likely the tip of the iceberg and that under the new leadership of the Military, there will be a more detailed sweep of these lowlifes and the chain of command that failed to see to their discharge.
North/South Korea –
Kremlin: Russia can provide military assistance to North Korea if necessary under the partnership treaty.
***
North Korea has confirmed for the first time the deployment of military equipment and troops to Russia in their war against Ukraine, announcing their participation in the “liberation” Kursk under Article 4 of the North Korean–Russian Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership signed in June of 2024. Article 4 of the treaty states that should either nation be “put in a state of war by an armed invasion”, the other will “provide military and other assistance with all means in its possession without delay” in accordance “with Article 51 of the UN Charter and the laws of the DPRK and the Russian Federation.”
Phillipines –
Philippine Marines, National Police officers and Coast Guard members landed on three contested South China Sea features today to assert Manila’s maritime jurisdiction following a similar China Coast Guard action earlier this month.
In mid-April, a China Coast Guard team landed at Sandy Cay—known to China as Tiexian Reef—and displayed a Chinese flag in an assertion of Beijing’s “maritime control” and “sovereign jurisdiction” over the sandbar. Manila’s largest South China Sea possession, Thitu Island, also known by the Philippines as Pagasa, lies only a few nautical miles east of Sandy Cay.
The inter-agency maritime operation deployed from Thitu on Sunday morning. Split among four teams on multiple rubber boats, two teams deployed to Sandy Cay 1, while the other two deployed to Sandy Cay 2 and 3, respectively. China Coast Guard cutter 5102 and seven maritime militia vessels were near the sandbars during the operation.
A National Task Force on the West Philippine Sea statement claimed that the mission reinforced “Philippine authorities’ routine and lawful exercise of maritime domain awareness and jurisdiction over the West Philippine Sea.”
https://news.usni.org/2025/04/27/philippine-forces-land-on-contested-south-china-sea-feature
OBSERVATION - This small sandbar is located to a key Philippine base. The next war with China may well start when shooting begins between Philippines and Chinese vessels.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Putin announced new ceasefire starting 8th May at midnight until midnight of 11th May Putin says the ceasefire is to mark the 80th anniversary of Victory Day.
OBSERVATION - Russia used previous short pauses to regroup, replenish stocks at frontline positions, evacuate casualties, amass personnel, clear ways for further offensive operations
***
North Korea Officially Confirms Troop Deployment in Russia: “We Will Be Faithful to the Implementation of the North Korea-Russia Treaty”
***
Next week could be make-or-break for peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, says U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio
***
Russia has officially declared its conditions for ending the war, according to MFA Lavrov. Among them: Crimea, Sevastopol, “DPR,” “LPR,” Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions must be officially recognized as Russian. Ukraine must lift the ban on negotiations with Russia, renounce NATO membership, and secure a neutral, non-aligned status. Ukraine must undergo “demilitarization and denazification,” all sanctions against Russia must be lifted, and frozen assets returned. Ukraine must also cancel laws limiting the use of Russian language, culture, and churches.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with scattered rain and showers.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No drone report as I type this up.
Russian losses per 28/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1160 men
+4 tanks
+13 AFVs
+31 artillery
Summary —
Russia’s self declared cease fire is more likely an effort to take pressure off its forces so that they can regroup, rearm and redeploy to sectors of the front that Russia wants to try to exploit for its Spring/Summer offensive plans. Much like the tactical “pauses” over the past year.
In related, Russia continues to demand essentially complete surrender of Ukraine before any long term cease fire / peace negotiations can move forward.
On the ground, moderately heavy fighting continues with some minor gains by Russia.
Europe / NATO General –
Both Spain and Portugal, as well as their capitals of Madrid and Lisbon, are currently suffering from a massive power outage, effecting airports, hospitals, power plants, subways, traffic lights, and other critical infrastructure across Western Europe. The cause of the outage is still unknown, though some are suspecting a major cyberattack by a hostile power like Russia.
Parts of the Netherlands and Belgium are also affected. Believed to be linked to the main European power network
OBSERVATION - If a cyberattack, and fully linked to Russia, this could open a whole new realm of pushback by Europe. It would essentially confirm Russia’s hostile intents towards Europe beyond Ukraine.
Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025
At this stage, a lot of the information is not confirmed and in some cases fully RUMINT
***
Military movements and actions -
Pakistani forces have reportedly deployed troops and tanks along the Narowal border with India in Punjab.
Pakistani media claims that its forces have successfully shot down an Indian drone along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir.
Political actions -
The UK, US, Canada, Russia, Australia, NATO, and China have reportedly issued new travel alerts for Pakistan due to escalating security threats following the deadly Pahalgam terror attack, with heightened risks at the India-Pakistan border.
Unconfirmed reports that Russia and China have warned India not to launch a large scale attack on Pakistan.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Tight hold on information on the Indian side. Reports of Pakistani deployments are likely mirrored to some extent by India. It is hard to gauge at this stage just how close either side is to initiate combat on a large scale.
Russian and Chinese involvement is a growing concern. I don’t see them actually committing military forces to Pakistan, but providing supplies and intelligence. They may also be more concerned about the use of nukes.
Other alignments have Israel in contact with India and Iran in contact with Pakistan. This is developing into a more complex international involvement.
I still see potential large scale combat initiating by the end of the week barring any significant actions to negotiate a settlement to calm things down.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu lays out conditions for any Iranian nuke plan
- IAF hits significant underground storage of Hezbollah precision munitions in Beirut
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Netanyahu sets two conditions for a deal with Iran:
- All nuclear infrastructure in Iran should be dismantled,
- Iran’s ICBM development should be limited.
“That is the deal we could liberate. Anything short of that could bring in the opposite result,” Israeli Prime minister said at the Jewish News Syndicate summit.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
A major forensic investigation by Henry Jackson Society reveals how Hamas has manipulated Gaza fatality data—inflating civilian deaths while concealing its own to distort the narrative.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/26/hamas-70pc-women-children-dead-claim-false/
***
Lebanese media: Hamxs is willing to accept Egyptian, Arab, or even international forces in Gaza as part of a deal to end the war.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A fire and heavy smoke erupted following an Israeli airstrike on a building in the Hadath area in the southern suburbs of Beirut.
Israeli statement: We attacked an infrastructure in Beirut where Hezbollah precision missiles were located underground in a known Shura Council meeting place .
Lebanese President Aoun condemned the Israeli strike on Beirut and urged the US and France, as ceasefire sponsors, to pressure Israel to stop violating the agreement.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Sailors on a Turkish vessel at anchor off Houthi controlled Yemen captured a massive air strike, likely from a B2, on port facilities.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Eyes continue to be focused on the US / Iran negotiations over its nuclear program. See below
Hamas continues to show a bipolar attitude towards a hostage agreement and associated peace agreement. Now they are willing for anyone to take control after previously refusing any concept.
Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.
***
The massive fire at Iran’s Bandar port rages into its third day. The death toll has climbed to 48, with over 1,200 injured and rising. Explosions and fires continue to rock Bandar Abbas as more containers detonate.
Video released on social media shows the most clear initial few seconds of the source fire that triggered the massive explosion and fires at Bandar Abbas. Video shows a container bursting into flame with distinctive orange smoke and flame. The orange color is an indicator of the combustion of ammonium nitrate.
Iranian Interior Ministry: “The explosion at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port was caused by negligence, and those responsible have already been identified”
***
Iranian Foreign Ministry: Iran is open to the role of Russia, China, and Europe in reaching an agreement with Washington.
OVERALL OBSERVATION -
First, the Bandar Abbas port disaster. The video released showing a container bursting into flame can point to a couple of things. Israeli tampering or just gross mishandling of the shipment. Iran is more softy coming out with the mishandling aspect. Bottom line, shipping into / out of the port are going to be seriously hampered for a long time.
Second, nuke negotiations are showing that Iran is unwilling to rid itself of its program and in some ways seem to be redefining terms to make it sound like they want to comply with US demands. Does Trump think Iran is progressing enough? have to see.
Saudi Arabia –
According to Reuters, U.S. President Trump plans to offer Saudi Arabia an arms package worth well over $100 Billion during his visit to the Middle East in May. The package will reportedly include advance weapons not previously offered to the Saudis, such as aircraft, air defenses, drones and radars, in an attempt to convince them to halt the further purchase of weapons from China.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1916674123725447194?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA