Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

Boy the new year started to get all balled up already.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 1, 2025

Related in many ways to the New Orleans terror attack - Just hours after the events in New Orleans, hundreds of pro-Hamas protesters marched in Manhattan today, chanting “globalize the intifada!”

OBSERVATION - The pro-Hamas movement continues and may try to expand its influence as things change in Hamas / Israel fight. The call to intifada clearly condones acts like the terror attack in New Orleans.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 2, 2025
Due to yesterday’s terror attacks.

The events of yesterday are just starting to come into place following a lot of speculation and confusion. Here’s what I’ve been able to summarize.

First - The New Orleans terror attack.

Perp - The perpetrator of the New Orleans truck attack, Shamsud Din Jabbar, was born and raised in Texas and was in the U.S. Army Reserve from 2015 to 2020. Additionally, according to Karol Markowicz of the NY Post and Fox News, he had a stolen Glock and a .308 rifle with him. Democrat donor

Motivation - Jihadic attack. ISIS black flag mounted on rear bumper, made statements prior to attack. Officials say Jabbar made a series of recordings before the attack which are being reviewed by investigators. If following typical ISIS and jihadi practice, these recordings would be his testimony for the attacks.

Accomplices - Local police and FBI are stating that Jabbar did not act alone and had assistance in the planning and execution of the attack.

The Houston mosque, potentially linked to the New Orleans terrorist, has urged members to avoid cooperating with the FBI without first consulting CAIR, an organization known for its controversial connections.
“It’s crucial that we stay united at this time.”

The New Orleans FBI field office said multiple search warrants are being executed in Louisiana and other states, including a location in Houston, TX connected to Jabbar.

The Weapons - Truck was rented on Turo. Pipe bombs and weapons were found in the vehicle used in the attack. The bombs were hidden in coolers and were set to be activated remotely using a matching remote control also found in the vehicle. Stolen Glock and .308(?)

Results - ABC reporting the death toll has increased to 15.

Related - Partially confirmed. At 6 am in New Orleans officers found an explosive device near the Cathedral in the French Quarter. They discovered two devices and safety detonated both.

Dozens were evacuated after a fire erupted at New Orleans Airbnb rented by Jabbar. Louisiana Attorney General Liz Murrill said the IEDs were manufactured at the Airbnb which she said was rented out for the purpose of building the devices.
NOTE - It has not been uncommon for terrorists to booby-trap their homes or places resided in to hopefully kill more and destroy any evidence.

FBI Houston has released a statement, asking residents to avoid the area near Hugh Road and Crescent Peak Drive in Northern Houston, while Federal Agents and Deputies with the Harris County Sheriff’s Office search a site possibly linked to the ISIS-affiliated terrorist attack earlier today in New Orleans.
A man apparently taken into custody in in Houston, Texas in connection to the terrorist attack.

SECOND - Las Vegas Attack

A Tesla Cybertruck blew up at Trump Tower in Las Vegas. Police confirm the driver has been killed, seven were injured. The truck exploded in front of the main doors to the Tower. The strength and construction of the Cybertruck directed the force of the explosion upward, potentially saving lives and limiting damage. The Cybertruck was packed with “fireworks-style mortars”, propane tanks and camping fuel.

Law enforcement sources have told CBS News, the BBC’s US news partner, that the Tesla Cybertruck was rented to Matthew Alan Livelsberger, an active duty US Army service member.

Livelsberger had been serving in Germany but was on leave in Colorado at the time of the incident, CBS reported. The profile indicates Livelsberger was still actively employed by the U.S. Army as a Remote and Autonomous Systems Manager, a role he reportedly held for three months leading up to the attack.

Two relatives of Livelsberger confirmed to CBS he had rented the Cybertruck but were unaware of him having any involvement in the incident. He used the same Turo app for the rental as the New Orleans terrorist

One relative said Livelsberger’s wife had not heard from him in several days.

Livelsberger is a U.S. Army veteran. Livelsberger’s LinkedIn is no longer online but there are ghost remnants of his background:

• Special forces intelligence sergeant
• Defense analysis and strategic studies degree from Norwich University

Matthew Livelsberger’s wife is a Democrat supporter. He is reportedly a Ukraine supporter and a Trump hater.

OBSERVATIONS - Taking a deep breath . . . . .

Jabbar clearly appears to be a home grown radicalized jihadist and likely is part of an ISIS affiliated cell/group in the Houston area. The construction of IEDs and probably communications that the FBI may have gotten their hands on point to accomplices. This is reinforced by is his mosque telling its members to go to ground and contact the terrorism linked CAIR if approached. Big red flags that this is mosque is lead by radical jihadi’s.

The mode of attack - driving vehicle into crowds - has become a very common attack mechanism. News sources are reporting that the city did not engage its vehicle barrier system around the site due to ‘maintenance’, leaving the venue wide open for this kind of attack.

Now, the Vegas bomber. More questions - why would an active duty SF conduct such an attack? For starters, it is apparently premeditated but put together quickly. He had just returned for Germany on leave, so had little time to construct a better explosive device.

His motive seems more political than jihadic. The symbolism of a Cybertruck being blown up in front of a Trump Tower is unmistakeable (Musk and Trump). Still don’t know the deeper motivation, what drove him over the edge. His wife is a documented democrat supporter, therefore it is likely he has the very same leanings. It is also known that the radical liberal influences have penetrated into the military, but generally SF forces are more ideologically based conservatives and not liberals willing to self destruct.

MORE OBSERVATIONS -

Eyebrows being raised on two coincidences. The first being that both terrorists used the Turo app to rent their vehicles. This is a new method of rental I’m not familiar with and could be just that - coincidence.

The second is that reportedly both served on the same base (Ft Bragg - in the before years IIRC). There is no current evidence they made contact with each other - the base houses 60,000 so chance meeting is questionable. Nor is there evidence yet that they are there at the same time. However, there may be some element in the shadows on the base that they could have been drawn to.

My current assessment - pending any new information - is that these are two separate, independent attacks. The New Orleans attack is far more concerning at the moment given that it is appearing it was intended to be part of a bigger attack (bombs at the Catholic Church) and a hive of jihadi’s uncovered at a radicalized mosque.

The Las Vegas likely a lone wolf, leftist attack. More info still out there that can change this initial assessment.

Increased chances of copycat attacks or even the start of a chain of islamic radical attacks (organized). Attack opportunities in the near term include crowds gathered for football bowl games. Important to note - their MO is mass casualty events or targeted attacks on high profile figures/locations.

Leftist lone wolves may copycat as the Trump election certification and inauguration approach.

***
Security increased on many major cities over night.

Washington DC Metropolitan Police:
“While there is no known threat to the District of Columbia, out of an abundance of caution, MPD has heightened its security posture across the city in light of recent events. While we do not discuss specifics regarding operations, tactics, or staffing, the community will notice an increased police presence throughout the city”

NYC Mayor Adams - increased police presence around the city and at Trump Tower.

The Sugar Bowl was scheduled to be played tonight in New Orleans. However, after last night’s suspected terror attack on Bourbon Street officials are postponing the game between Georgia and Notre Dame until Thursday

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
Level maintained due to potential debt ceiling impacts later this month

(FO) The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and U.S. Maritime Alliance will resume contract negotiations for East and Gulf Coast ports on Tuesday, 7 January according to a person familiar with the negotiations. The current deal to suspend the ILA strike is set to expire on 15 January, only five days before President-elect Trump’s inauguration. The key disagreement between the ILA and U.S. Maritime Alliance is over port terminal automation, and the ILA will likely strike if a deal is not made to block automation.

OBSERVATION - The new game of chicken is on. The union is radically anti republican / anti Trump in its leadership. A strike will deal a major blow to the supply chain, even if short term. Trump could try to influence, but cannot directly act until in office.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Striking while the iron is hot - U.S. Senators are now urging the expedited confirmation of Trump’s national security team following the attacks in New Orleans.

Phillipines –

(FO) Philippine Fishermen found a foreign submersible drone in the center of the Philippine archipelago. The local police director says the drone is marked for a Chinese underwater navigation and communication system, has an antenna

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20 -30s warming into the 40s towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reports a drone attack overnight. Out of 72 Shahed drones launched, 47 were shot down and another 24 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 02/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1370 men
+4 tanks
+13 APVs
+20 artillery systems

Unconfirmed reports that Kapustin Yar, known for the launch site of Russia’s Oreshnik ballistic missile, is under Ukrainian drone attacks.

Summary —
Growing evidence that the Russian offensive in many parts of the front is stalling out as personnel and equipment losses continue to mount. Russia still throwing its usual 60-80 Shahed drones against Ukraine, with little to no success.

Current trends indicate that there will be not much change in the day to day fighting. Russian losses are still elevated yet failing to gain significant terrain.

Moldova/Transnistria -

As of today (yesterday), Russia’s colony of Transnistria no longer has gas.
“The centralized heating system in populated areas was turned off due to the cessation of gas supplies from Russia, the company “Tirasteploenergo” reports.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas complains that Israel is changing its demands on hostage release.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Former Israeli defense minister Yoav Galant announced his resignation from the Knesset. This will allow him to run in the next elections in an any political party he wants.

Israel threatened Hamas that is will commit a third division back into Gaza if they continue to hold onto hostages and not negotiate in good faith.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Israeli army says it killed Hussam Shahwan, the head of Hamas’ internal security service in southern Gaza.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

The Palestinian Authority has decided to temporarily freeze Al-Jazeera broadcasts and the activities of journalists working for the network in the West Bank and Gaza Strip
NOTE - Al Jazeera is noted to be a radical mouthpiece for the opponents of the PA and this shut down is due to the ongoing fight between the PA and these groups like Hamas remnants and PIJ, etc.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Focus is on hostages held by Hamas. Some analysts think they are calling Trump’s bluff and deliberately holding onto them to force a US response. This would result in a two-fisted assault by both the US and Israel. But then the jihadi mindset is to go out in a blaze of glory. Sadly, I suspect that they’ve already killed most if not all hostages by now.

Other Israeli fronts are stable. Hezbollah / S Lebanon see relative calm, no more actions in Syria, Houthi’s quiet for a day or two as well.

Eventual elections will soon take over the scene. The resignation of Galant gives him the opportunity to run for any position he wants to. Currently, Netanyahu is experiencing very high favorability ratings, suggesting that should elections occur - and nothing catastrophic take place - his party and affiliated could gain a much stronger control over parliament.

Syria -

International coalition warplanes targeted several airstrikes on sites where ISIS is active in the southern desert of Raqqa

Misc of Note –

I’m probably echoing the thoughts of many, but New Orleans in particular is sticking in my craw. The incompetent ‘agent’ who blabbed about it not being a terrorist attack - inspire of a prominent ISIS flag - takes it all.
Over the past four year, the govt via the DoJ and FBI have wasted billions going after mothers complaining at school board meetings, grandmothers and other peaceful individuals praying in front of abortion clinics, smearing good, honest America loving citizens - claiming they are the greatest terrorist threat - and then let REAL terrorists operation openly.

The depth of the overall rot in out govt is huge and has metastasized into a threat to the Nation. I don’t think 4 years of Trump will be enough to cauterize it and the potential level of fighting could breakout into the kinetic realm.

Family related stuff will keep me from posting probably until Monday at the earliest. I may get a post in before but don’t count on it. Don’t worry, nothing serious, just heading to the daughter and SIL’s to watch the grandkids while they celebrate their 10th anniversary.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 2, 2025

Some unusual twists and turns in the Las Vegas car bombing attack on NYD. Authorities are now stating that Matthew Livelsberger shot himself in the head PRIOR to detonating the explosives in the Cybertruck.

It has been reported that two weapons were found in the truck - A Desert Eagle and a SLR B-30 AR pattern rifle. The Eagle was found at his feet and is assumed to be the weapon he shot himself with.

For those unfamiliar with the Eagle, it is designed to fire some serious ammo. Normal chambering is for .357 Magnum rounds, though it can be found with chambering all the way up to .50 cal. I’ve not seen any official reports of the caliber of the found Eagle.

I’ve had personal exposure to the .357 model - it is a beast. Flame projects down range over 6 feet and the sound of the firing shook the whole indoor range.

There is no evidence of such a pronounced weapons fire signature prior to the vehicle exploding.

If he shot himself BEFORE setting off the explosives - just HOW did he manage that?

This has set up a lot of speculation that he was actually murdered and the truck autopilot to the Trump Tower entrance - a scenario completely valid given the technology. This auto piloting is also suggested because if Livelsberger had intended a mass casualty event he would have driven through the glass facade and into the lobby before detonating. This could not be done under current understanding of autopilot.

There is a question now if Livelsberger was the one who actually rented the truck. “We do know who rented the truck, we are looking at that individual, but I am not prepared to release the name of any of the individuals that we are looking at,” Clark County Sheriff Kevin McMahill said on Wednesday.

Another twist is coming from his family: “He used to have all patriotic stuff on Facebook, he was 100 percent loving the country.”

“He loved Trump, and he was always a very, very patriotic soldier, a patriotic American.

As I noted yesterday, his ‘attack’ on the Trump Tower is contrary to the standard profile of a Special Forces type.

Finally, these vehicles are loaded with cameras, gps and other sensors. Reportedly Musk has a team working to recover that data. The track of the truck to Las Vegas driven by Livelsberger thru quick charging stations and cameras has been established. The recovery of the cab video may provide the last bits of data regarding his final minutes.

The method, involving amateur fireworks, seems inconsistent with the sophistication one might expect from someone with a Special Ops background. This scenario raises questions about the true motives behind the incident and whether it was a bizarre staged attack

BTW - a lot of poor speculation on the fact that his IDs survived the fire that disfigured him. Common sense here folks. IDs are commonly kept in a wallet - often made of leather - and kept in one’s back pocket. Sitting in a car seat, said wallet would be insulated from the worst of the fire by both the body and the seat. A nothing burger.

***
Nationally, major cities are evaluating and increasing security for events that could be targeted for mass casualty attacks.

Illegal Immigration –

President of Honduras, Xiomara Castro, has a message for President-elect Trump.

“”I want to say that we hope that the new US administration of President Donald J. Trump will be open to dialogue, constructive, friendly, and that it will not take unnecessary reprisals against our migrants, who make a great contribution to the US economy.

Faced with a hostile attitude towards our brothers, we would have to consider a change in our policies of cooperation with the United States, especially in the military field, where without paying a cent for decades, they maintain military bases in our territory, and in this case they would lose all reason for existing in Honduras.””

https://hotair.com/tree-hugging-sister/2025/01/02/honduras-rattling-that-no-deportar-or-we-boot-your-bases-cage-n3798442

OBSERVATION - The Honduran president is playing a weak hand. As the article notes, the US supplies millions of dollars worth of aid annually to the country. A Im pretty sure Trump is willing to cut that aid off if needed.

North/South Korea –

The police give up their attempt to arrest South Korean President Yoon after a 7 hour standoff at the presidential residence with the military unit protecting him.

OBSERVATION - SK entering a zone of serious constitutional crisis. Yoon apparently still has considerable support among the military.

Phillipines –

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has removed his vice president Sara Duterte from the National Security Council.

OBSERVATION - Duterte has threatened Marcos over any actions taken against her.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20 -30s warming into the 40s towards the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched a Shahed drone attack on Ukraine. From the 93 launched in total, 60 were shot down by regular air defense and another 26 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 03/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1080 men
+1 tank
+14 AFVs
+3 artillery systems
+1 MLRS

Yesterday, Ukrainian forces conducted a highly successful HIMARS strike on a large gathering of Russian soldiers from the 810th Naval Infantry Brigade in Ivanovskoe, Kursk Oblast. Russian channels report heavy casualties, complaining of systematic Ukrainian targeting.

Russians - after regrouping - once again became active in the Pokrovsk direction. On the western flank, Russian forces captured Novovasylivka and are pressing towards Vovkove-Zirove. Near Shevchenko, Russians are pushing along the railway tracks to Novoukrainka.

Summary —

Fighting ebbs and flows along the front. Russian command still considers high casualties and equipment losses as acceptable.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Unconfirmed reports that Russian state energy operator Gazprom is likely attempting to exploit the cessation of gas transits through Ukraine to create an artificial energy crisis to destabilize Moldova.

OBSERVATION - The cut off of natural gas is going to hurt Transnistria more than Moldova proper as Moldova can look to Romania for some assistance, while Transnistria is completely cut off.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Massive air strikes near Aleppo, Syria targeting missile production and stockpiles.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli army: The Lebanese army did not respond to our request to neutralize Hezbollah missile platforms, so we targeted them. Israeli Air Force attacked Hezbollah rocket launchers in the a-Tufah region

***

Some key dates - On January 20, Donald Trump will enter the Oval Office.
- On January 26, the 60-day ceasefire agreement in Lebanon will expire.

Active fighting may kick off again soon and Israel is more than willing to take the gloves off again. National Lebanese elections on Jan 9 may impact support for Hezbollah.

***
Following reports earlier today that Iran was preparing to transport millions in cash to Hezbollah via “Mahan Air” Flights between Beirut and Tehran; Lebanese authorities have told Iran that all flights arriving from Tehran will be searched, and that if cash is found it will be confiscated.

This policy was challenged by ambassadorial staff caught carrying large amounts of cash into the airport. After a standoff, they were let in as the cash was ‘wages’ for embassy staff.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi’s continue to fire ballistic missiles into Israel, at a rate of 1 - 2 per day. Overnight, after the launch of a missile from Yemen at Central Israel and the subsequent interception of that missile, videos emerged that suggest that a large piece of the missile and/or the interceptor impacted the ground in a populated area.

The Israel Defense Force has now confirmed the impact of an interceptor fragment in the Modi’in area of Central Israel.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Houthi keep poking the bear and they are going to FO soon. Israel reportedly planning new ways of targeting them and may well go after civilian stashed supplies as well as leadership. I expect next round of Israeli air strikes within the next few days.

Hostage talks are going no where.

Clock ticking down on the Jan 26th end of the ceasefire. Lebanon has shown very little willingness to confront Hezbollah on enforcement issues.

Iran –

Biden reportedly has discussed plans to strike Iran nuclear sites if Tehran speeds toward bomb before January 20th

Lebanon -

On January 9, Lebanon will elect a president. Implications from the recent Israeli/Hezbollah fight may see some swing against Hezbollah.

Syria -

Syrian news sources reported that a massive explosion at the Khalkhalela military airport in the Sweida province has shaken Syria. Claims that the explosion was big enough to register a 2.5 magnitude earthquake were reported.

Israeli fighter jets had previously bombed this military airport on December 8 and 14

More detailed reports state Israel targeted the Syrian Scientific Research Center (formerly affiliated with the Syrian army) east of Aleppo city.
Sources also reported to Saudi Al-Hadath that a rocket depot was among the targets of the Israeli struck in Aleppo province.

Misc of Note –

Millions across the central and eastern U.S. are bracing for a major winter storm expected to dump heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain, with dangerous travel conditions and power outages anticipated through the first weekend of 2025.

- The storm will affect regions from the northern Plains to the mid-Atlantic, bringing snow, ice, and freezing rain from Friday, January 3 to Monday, January 6.

- Heavy snow exceeding 10 cm (4 inches), ice accumulations over one-tenth of an inch, and strong winds up to 55 km/h (35 mph) may lead to blizzard-like conditions and hazardous travel.

A major winter storm is expected to bring severe winter weather across the central and eastern United States through the first weekend of 2025, with snow, freezing rain, and thunderstorms anticipated in many areas.

According to the National Weather Service (NWS), confidence continues to grow regarding a significant winter storm expected from Saturday afternoon through Sunday night, January 4 – 5, bringing a mix of freezing drizzle, freezing rain, sleet, and snow.

https://watchers.news/2025/01/02/major-winter-storm-to-impact-u-s-through-the-first-weekend-of-2025/

OBSERVATION - Be prepared out there. High associated potential for power outages due to downed lines and even grid overloads.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.