Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

Potentially turbulent week ahead. Start of broad tariffs, the April 5 protests and what ever else is poised to come our way.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
- “Hands Off 2025” on Saturday April 5th.

***
Trump supporter at a Tesla dealership mowed down by anti-Musk demonstrator Allan Talbot (Idaho). It’s only a matter of time until an anti-Tesla lunatic kills someone for owning a Tesla or for supporting Tesla.

In AZ, two elderly women were cut off an assaulted because they drove a Tesla.

It’s only going to get worse-remember all the leftists and the media that have encouraged this!

Vandalism of individual’s Teslas continue across the country, but along with it are increasing felony arrests of the perps.

Of particular note, signage and chants at these Tesla protests contained a considerable amount of encouragement to commit more vandalism of dealerships and individuals and even some increased calls for physical violence against owners.

***
Increasing numbers of Tesla supporters are beginning to show up to counter the protestors. This will increase the potential for violence between the groups - as especially noted in the above vehicular assault on a Tesla supporter.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Mar 18, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
- Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month.

***
The entrance to the Republican Party of New Mexico’s headquarters in Albuquerque was destroyed in a deliberate act of arson Sunday morning, according to reports.

The message “ICE = KKK” was spray painted on the building.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

The Dow is reportedly suffering the jitters as the start date of Trump’s tariffs are fast approaching. Could be a rough week as the market tries to plot out the impacts to the economy.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

OSINT observers have the current buildup at Diego Garcia airbase in the Indian Ocean:

7 B-2 ‘Spirit’ stealth bombers
8 B-52H ‘Stratofortress’ bombers
7 Boeing C-17 ‘Globemaster’ lll
10 Boeing KC-135 ‘Stratotankers’
1 P-8A ‘Poseidon’

These are the numbers that are confirmed, and they are conservative estimates.

OBSERVATION - This is the first time I’ve seen B52s declared present at Diego Garcia. All the recent talk has been about the B2s. If this is correct, and I suspect it is, Iran is walking into an inferno. The old workhorse B52 can carry a lot of bombs, but potentially more significant in this current scenario - a whole lot of cruise missiles. If one could wrap the whole potential attack package together - B2, B52, naval and USAF strike assets, Israeli assets - and executed with surprise and mass, Iran will be hit like no other nation has in recent times.

***
Unconfirmed. Observers are noting a potential major airlift by the U.S. Air Force’s Air Mobility Command (AMC) that appears to be ongoing between Osan Air Base in South Korea and Isa Air Base in Bahrain; with several C-17s over the last few days observed flying between the bases. The thought is that they are likely transporting MIM-104 “Patriot” surface-to-air missile batteries as well as other air-defense systems and munitions to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM).

This would be an expected response by the US in anticipation of Iranian retaliatory fire from a US lead strike. Of concern is that out Patriot and even THAAD units are stretched.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Probably the most significant election since Nov 2024 is the upcoming Wisconsin vote this week. At stake is the control of the state supreme court and the democrats desire to gain control in order to gerry mander new districts and potentially swing new congressional democrats that could swing control of congress to the democrats.

Elon Musk’s held a massive event in Wisconsin to rally support for the republican candidate.

TRUMP Watch –

Media attacks on the Trump administration due to the Atlantic‘s leak of Signal messages do “not seem tied to evaluations of Mr. Trump overall,” according to a CBS News poll that found the president’s approval rating to be 50 percent.
The poll, released Sunday morning, surveyed more than 2,600 Americans from across the country on March 27 and 28.

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2025/03/30/cbs-poll-signal-gate-fails-as-trump-maintains-50-percent-approval-rating/

OBSERVATION - Left leaning CBS polling shows essentially no loss of support over the Signalgate ‘scandal’ and that support for Trumps policies remain strong.

Media heads must be exploding

Cyber attacks/warfare –HIGH ALERT as of Mar 31, 2025

Threat status elevated due to potential US / Israeli strike on Iran and Iran using cyber attacks in response.

Illegal Immigration –

A growing number of illegal migrants are smuggling themselves out of the United States to avoid the legal penalties of government deportations, according to multiple witnesses.

Alfredo Corchado, an American journalist in Texas and Mexico and an executive editor at the Puente News Collaborative, told an audience at the Council on Foreign Relations:

“[Coyotes] are now offering packages where [migrant] people can go back home …. [If] you want to go home, or you want to go back to Honduras, or maybe you don’t want to go back to Honduras because it’s too dangerous. [Or] you don’t want to go to Guatemala, but maybe you want to go to Costa Rica, and so they’re offering these [smuggling] packages where you can just go back home. Not all of them are taking it, I mean, many [are].”

https://www.breitbart.com/immigration/2025/03/29/coyotes-are-smuggling-migrants-out-united-states/

***
Federal data shows that Immigration and Customs Enforcement has nearly 50,000 detainees as President Trump’s policy of mass deportation of criminal illegals continues.

It is ten thousand more than Joe Biden’s high of nearly 40,000 detentions.

Federal data shows that detentions had reached to 47,892 detainees as of March 23. The number exceeds the 39,703 reached during the Biden years. It isn’t yet as high as the 60,000 reached during the first Trump term, but it seems clear that record will be broken.

https://www.breitbart.com/immigration/2025/03/29/ice-has-nearly-50000-illegal-migrants-in-detention/

Russia -

*****

(ISW). A Russian diplomat provided additional details following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent thinly veiled demand for regime change in Ukraine by having external parties establish a “temporary international administration” in Ukraine under the auspices of the United Nations (UN). More

- Logvinov and TASS are supporting Putin’s recent effort to inject a new demand into discussions about the resolution to the war that is consistent with the Kremlin’s long-standing effort to ensure the installation of a government friendly to Russia in Ukraine.

- The Kremlin is also attempting to dictate the sequencing and processes surrounding the demand while holding the ceasefire negotiation hostage to extract additional concessions from the West.

- UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres rejected Putin’s proposal to establish a temporary administration in Ukraine and stated that Ukraine has a legitimate government that must be respected on March 28.

Economic Impact –

President Donald Trump said Sunday he’s “very angry” and “pissed off” at Vladimir Putin over the Russian president’s remarks late last week suggesting the removal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the implementation of a “transitional administration” in Ukraine.

In a Sunday morning interview with NBC News, Trump threatened a 25% tariff on Russian oil if a ceasefire deal can’t be reached.

“If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” Trump told NBC News.

OBSERVATION - With growing evidence that putin is not negotiating in good faith but going beyond that is getting under Trump’s skin, as well it should. Trump knows that Russia oil is the lifeline of today’s Russia and its income has become critical to supporting its war efforts. Note the tariffs are not on Russia alone, but every country that purchases Russia oil, casting a pretty broad net. This will impact China significantly who’s economy is also struggling.

At this stage, putin seems to think he has Trump in his back pocket and is immune to non-military actions. Trump may well be playing “rope a dope” with putin.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Rainy conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 50s range.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reports on a Russian missile and drone attack overnight. Out of 131 drones launched, 57 were shot down and another 45 were supressed by EW or were lost in location.
A significant amount of drones got through

5 Shahed drone strikes hit Kyivskyi district in Kharkiv, injuring three men and damaging five industrial buildings and 11 apartment blocks.

Overnight, Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked Shaykovka airfield in Russia’s Kaluga region. Damage assessment is ongoing.

Russian losses per 31/03/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff.

+1230 men
+4 tanks
+3 AFVs
+30 artillery
+1 AD

Summary —

Ukraine still struggling with Shahed attacks. More info on just how Russia has improved the attacks is coming out. Apparently, they are abandoning some of the low flying attacks of the past. Ukraine has been very successful by using good ol machine guns to take the relatively slow flying drones out. The Russian shift in tactics have groups of drones loiter at high altitudes, out of range of machine guns, then all at once dive bomb towards their targets. This limits the firing window of current ADA weapons and in mass, overwhelms local defenses. Staging the attacks at high altitudes forces Ukraine to decide whether or not to use limited and expensive missiles to engage them. These systems are normally reserved for more advanced Russian cruise and ballistic missiles. Ukraine’s answer to the new tactic is not known, but may involve use of more fighter air craft and helicopters to hit the groups before they make their plunge to targets. Even at that, Russia will still see successes in hitting targets.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Continued air strikes across Gaza as ground forces continue to maneuver.

- Larger evacuation ordered covering much of S Gaza.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office announced that the Israeli Prime Minister has decided to appoint former Israeli Navy Commander (Reserve) Major General Eli Sharvit as head of the Shin Bet, succeeding Ronen Bar, whose dismissal has been met with opposition and protests.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Israeli army distributes leaflets in Rafah: Calling for evacuation to Khan Yunis

Operations in light of the growing Rafah evacuation -

1. Most of the southern city in the Gaza Strip is empty, and for about a week now, fighters from Brigade 14, Givati, and Battalion 9 have been sweeping the Shaboura and Tel Sultan areas for weapons caches, launchers, and tunnels that were not discovered in previous raids.

2. This raid is now expanding into additional neighborhoods in the city, spreading wider and further north.

3. There is almost no friction or combat, as the militants fled to displaced persons camps in al-Mawasi and Khan Younis.

4. This is not yet the major ground operation the IDF is planning to retake the Strip—a plan that hasn’t even been approved yet at the top security-political levels. Rather, these are gradual moves aimed at pressuring Hamas toward a broader hostage deal.

https://x.com/osint613/status/1906613611520270725?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

The Shin Bet and Israeli police captured six Palestinians from Nablus, part of a Hamxs-directed cell operating out of Turkey and planning attacks in Israel. Authorities seized an IED near Jit, an M-16 rifle, and $60,000 in cash.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

US military attacks against Houthi targets continued overnight in Sana’a province.

***
Israel’s defense echelon estimates that the Houthi rebel group only has a few dozen ballistic missiles, Channel 12 News reported.

Though the missiles weigh hundreds of kilograms and are between five and ten meters long each, only a few are manufactured each month. In addition, many of the launchers were damaged in the US - and Israeli - strikes.

The report also said that the area from which the Houthis launch their missiles is believed to be very limited, and that most of the missiles they launch are intercepted and fall in other countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

However, it is also estimated that so long as the fighting in Gaza continues, the Houthis will continue launching towards Israel, regardless of their limited supply.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/406169

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza operations are progressing quickly and without much resistance as Israel retakes territory it captured and later pulled out from early on. Israeli movements southward from northern and central Gaza is herding the remnants of Hamas et al into a smaller and smaller area. This apparently will continue until conditions are ripe for Israel to commit two divisions that are standing on the ready to close with and destroy Hamas.

Lebanon is relatively quiet, with Israel poised to strike Hezbollah positions at will and with no resistance.

I take the assessment that the Houthis have few ballistic missiles available at arms length. A lot depends on just how successful the ongoing air campaign has been at locating and destroying stockpiles. Clearly they are not receiving any new rockets from Iran and their capability to construct new ones likely has been seriously reduced by airstrikes.
That said, the Houthi display a definitely impaired ability to shoot more than one or two missiles per day.

Iran - see discussions below.

Iran –

Iran summons Swiss envoy as head of US interest section, relays protest notice over Trump threats

Iran’s Leader (in reaction to the threats by Trump):

“They are threatening us. If they (the US and Israeli regime) commit any malicious action - which is not much likely -, they will undoubtedly receive a strong and reciprocal blow”

“They accuse the brave nations of this region of being proxies. There’s only one proxy force in this region, and that’s the Zionist regime which commits genocide and perpetrates crimes in acting as a proxy for the colonialists.”

Trump on Iran: “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing - and it will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.” Via NBC

***
Iranian missiles are loaded onto launchers in all underground missile cities and are ready for launch,” the state-run Tehran Times English newspaper reported on Sunday, citing information it received.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Iran is in a tight spot, so they resort to standard threats as well as publicizing their (remaining) missile strength.

Long range missiles capable of hitting Israel are definitely limited. Shorter ranged missiles capable of covering the Persian Gulf region are likely fairly abundant.

An options on the short term would be to launch a preemptive strike against Israel to try to throw off timeline planning on the US / Israel strike against them. The resulting backlash is that the US has pretty substantial capabilities in the region and may show the patience to finish compiling the assault forces and hit Iran with an incredibly massive strike.

Their only other option would seem to try to weather the US / Israeli hit and respond with missiles to Israel and US based in the Persian Gulf. This is Iran’s hope that enough missile units survive the attack to mount such an assault.

In either case, the aggressive campaign against the Houthis should serve notice that the US isn’t going to fiddle faddle around with it come to them.

With this, two key developments, the identification of a significant number of B52s at Diego and the likely deployment of Patriot systems to Gulf bases make it even more evident, Trump is serious and he’ll back up his words with actions. Potential D-day 5-6 weeks out.

ONE LAST ITEM - I include potential terrorist attacks here in the US by Iranian cells that have infiltrated into the country during biden’s open borders.

Turkey –

Turkish President Erdogan:
In a speech on the occasion of the Muslim holiday Eid al-Fitr:
“We see what is happening in Palestine, may Allah destroy Israel.”

OBSERVATION - Turkey, once a friend of Israel, is continuing to take a more malicious tac in threatening Israel. These growing threats are likely the reason for Israels recent strikes on bases Turkey appears to have its eyes on in repayment for helping HTS overthrow Assad.

I wish I could have a pithy April Fools post, but things are just too serious now on the global and national fronts.

In all seriousness, all Wisconsin freepers, bring a friend and get out and vote.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The globalist, deep staters have been very aggressive lately trying to shut down populist candidates in numerous countries over the past year. Most recent target is Le Pen of France, framed for a crime. Others include:
Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Imran Khan in Pakistan, Matteo Salvini in Italy, Donald Trump in America, Călin Georgescu in Romania, and Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel. The deep state around the world is in panic mode and is using its judicial arm to manipulate and persecute the leaders that the people want.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
- “Hands Off 2025” on Saturday April 5th.

***
Representative Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) said Monday on MSNBC’s “The Rachel Maddow Show” that she was training Americans to help take down a potential “dictatorship” of President Donald Trump.

Jayapal said, “Yeah I mean, what we decided is that we really need to help Americans understand what happens when democracies fall when dictators take over. We’ve been pretty complacent in America. We haven’t had to really deal with this in any real way. And now I think people need to understand what are the lessons from other countries and working with experts who have studied democratic backsliding in countries around the world and the resistance movements that emerged to take on that democratic backsliding.”

She added, “We’ve developed a curriculum where we help people understand, how do you go after the pillars of support? Not necessarily the person at the top but the pillars of support that allow that person to continue to have power? And how do you shift allies from being sort of passive opponents to being active supporters of taking down a dictatorship?”

https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2025/03/31/jayapal-were-training-americans-to-take-down-potential-trump-dictatorship/

OBSERVATION - Apparently the corruption of schools and universities hasn’t worked well enough for them. Setting up foundation for them to ‘justify’ violence against the Trump administration.

***
The DOGE team fought for days to gain access to the United States Institute of Peace. Eventually, with help from the FBI and Metro Police DOGE was able to access the agency and discovered massive fraud, waste and abuse-including payments to Taliban and Iraq.

They deleted a terabyte of financial data to cover their crimes, but they don’t understand technology, so we recovered it

OBSERVATION - This was one of the strongest resistance of any agency of the US govt to duly authorized DOGE inspectors. Already seeing that millions (billions) were shipped off to terrorist groups.

***
RUMINT. Drug cartel operatives are surveilling and compiling lists of key military and civilian personnel to be targeted for assassination if and when Trump goes to war with Iran

OBSERVATION - The were reports that Iranian infiltrators had established a good working relationship with cartels during the biden open border.

Folks, following global developments as I have for many, many years now, I fully expect something to happen stateside when the bombs fall on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Too many elements see Trump and the US as a greater threat and are seeking asymmetrical ways to damage the country.

***
AG Pam Bondi announces charges against Cooper Frederick for allegedly firebombing a Tesla dealership in Loveland, Colorado.
He faces up to 20 years in prison.

OBSERVATION - This is the second arrest of a Tesla dealership terrorist that I’m aware of. Vandalism of individual Teslas continues, but its security systems and good citizens are resulting in quick arrests of the vandals - many facing felony charges.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Unconfirmed. The US is sending the B-1 Lancer strategic bombers to the Middle East.

OBSERVATION - If this is valid, and still checking, this is one of the most significant buildups of US strategic bombers in a region in more than a decade at least.

***
Military transport activity is continuing to with more arrivals today in the Middle East, this includes a C-5M “Super Galaxy” currently crossing Turkey. Over two dozens flights originating from Osan have arrived at Isa Air Base in Bahrain, as well as other U.S. and allied air bases in the region over the last week.

OBSERVATION - Again, suspected deployment of Patriot systems.

***
Reportedly, Navy is sending the Nimitz CSG to replace the Vinson CSG in the western Pacific. It will not apparently be available in part due to Chinese ‘exercise’ around Taiwan.

***
Even as the U.S. Air Force works to retire its fleet of A-10 Thunderbolt IIs, Warthogs are still proving useful in the ongoing fight against ISIS. And now, the U.S. military is sending additional Warthogs to the Middle East. It’s part of the latest build up of U.S. military power, as fighting ramps up against Houthi forces in Yemen.

The 124th Fighter Wing announced it was deploying more than 300 airmen and “multiple” A-10s to the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The troops and aircraft, flown by members of the 190th Fighter Squadron, left Idaho on Saturday, March 29. The exact number of A-10s was not disclosed, beyond “several” being deployed. The Idaho State Journal reports that the troops are on a 180-day deployment.

https://taskandpurpose.com/news/a10-warthogs-middle-east-houthis/

OBSERVATION - Not only Houthi action, but potential action against Iran. Houthis are just a good cover story.

POLITICAL FRONT –

More mixed bags of judicial decisions for/against Trump’s agenda.

One note in particular - all the democrats refused to support a resolution condemning the terroristic violence against Tesla dealerships and owners.

Cyber attacks/warfare –HIGH ALERT as of Mar 31, 2025
- Threat status elevated due to potential US / Israeli strike on Iran and Iran using cyber attacks in response.

Illegal Immigration –

According to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) head, the number of illegal immigrants with social security numbers surged more than sevenfold from 270,000 in 2021 to a whopping 2.1 million in 2024. In total, more than 5 million illegal aliens collect benefits funded by hardworking American taxpayers, with some finding their way into the voter register.

“This is a mind-blowing chart,” Musk explained with data. “This wasn’t an accident. This was a massive, large-scale program under the Biden administration to import as many illegals as possible—ultimately to change the voting map of the United States, disenfranchise the American people, and lock in a permanent deep-blue, one-party state from which there’d be no escape.”

https://thepopulisttimes.com/exposed-illegal-immigrants-infiltrated-voter-rolls-exploit-medicaid-after-obtaining-ssns-without-ids/

OBSERVATION - As this develops, we see another key area why the left has been screaming so loud about DOGE. This is corruption on a massive scale.

China –

Spokesperson for the East China Sea Branch of the Chinese Coast Guard has announced the CCG is conducting “law enforcement patrols” surrounding Taiwan including “pre-inspection, arrest, interception and seizure, and other subject exercises.”

Taiwan detects 19 Chinese warships, Shandong aircraft carrier group around island - AFP

OBSERVATION - This is serious stuff, probably the most serious to date. To intercept ships headed to Taiwan can develop quickly into a blockade. China may be trying to seize an advantage with the Vinson CSG moving to the middle east and the Nimitz CSG still many days from station, while the Reagan sits in port in Japan. Chinese propaganda has been directing ridicule towards Trump as part of this “exercise”.

***
China has held up the $23 billion sale of dozens of ports worldwide — including two key ports in the Panama Canal — to a group led by US investing giant BlackRock after President Trump expressed concern about Beijing’s sway over the strategic shipping lanes.
On March 4, CK Hutchison, a Hong Kong-based conglomerate controlled by 96-year-old billionaire Li Ka-shing, announced plans to sell 43 port facilities globally — including critical ports at both ends of the Panama Canal and near the Suez Canal — for approximately $22.8 billion.
But China’s State Administration for Market Regulation unexpectedly initiated an investigation on Friday into potential violations of Chinese anti-monopoly laws, effectively stalling the deal.

https://nypost.com/2025/03/31/business/china-blocks-23b-sale-of-panama-canal-ports-to-blackrock/

Russia -

*****

At a meeting with Wang Yi, Lavrov stated that the leaders of Russia and China are committed to consistently strengthening the “Russian-Chinese connection.”

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree ordering the conscription of 160,000 men into the Russian army, a move that has raised eyebrows globally as it coincides with ongoing peace negotiations related to the Ukraine conflict.
According to reports from The Telegraph, this spring draft, set to be completed by July 15, marks an increase from previous years—up from 150,000 in 2024, 147,000 in 2023, and 134,500 in 2022.

OBSERVATION - This is the annual conscription. An increase of 10K is not incurably large, but does reflect evidence that the war continues to be a drag. For reference, Russia has been suffering at least 30K casualties (dead and severely wounded) every month. So the increase of 10K doesn’t even cover a months worth of losses.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Rainy conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 50s range.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles. Both were shot down near Zaporizhzia.

No reports of Shahed attacks overnight.

Russian losses per 01/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

+1540 men
+9 tanks
+37 AFVs
+15 artillery
+46 UAVs

In the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced northwest of Terny on the other western side of the Zherebets river towards Nove and Katerynivka. Heavy fighting is ongoing. It is also noticed that Russians started using mechanized attacks again.

Summary —

Quiet night for Shaheds?

Ground fighting ebbs and flows with intensity. The use of mechanized forces at Terny, versus the hodge podge of transports at other places of the front, suggests a stronger attempt at breaking thru the defenses at this locations. Overall levels of fighting do not infer that Russia is trying to preserve forces for a potential offensive later this spring. Watching to see if these are more economy of force attacks to try to keep Ukrainian forces pinned in place.

Russians continued to break their promise of not attacking power facilities, hitting numerous ones with glide bombs over the past several days.

Ceasefire talks are basically dead in the water, as Russia refuses to make any concessions and essentially demands Ukraine surrender before any actions are taken.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Netanyahu withdrawas from his intention to appoint Eli Sharvit as head of the Shin Bet.

- IAF takes out Hezbollah official Hassan Badir

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israeli National Security Headquarters warns: Hamas is expected to increase its attempts to carry out attacks against Jews and Israelis abroad - following the renewal of fighting in Gaza and the difficult situation in the Strip. Hamas terror infrastructures that planned to hit Israeli targets have already been exposed in Denmark, Germany, Bulgaria and Sweden.

***
Netanyahu withdrawas from his intention to appoint Eli Sharvit as head of the Shin Bet.
Reportedly due to the uncovering of anti-Trump statements

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Following the rocket fire from the northern Gaza Strip on Sderot this morning, the Israeli army issues an evacuation warning for Palestinians in the Beit Hanoun area. In a post on X, the Israeli army’s Arabic-language spokesman, Colonel Avichay Adraee, publishes a map of the area

The rocket was taken out by Iron Dome.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

A senior Hezbollah official told Al-Manar that the organization decided not to respond with an attack from Lebanese territory following the Israeli attack on Beirut.
According to him, Naim Qassem chose an operation from Iraqi territory, which is expected to take place in the coming days.

***
The Israeli Air Force has just carried out an unusual precision-airstrike on a high-rise apartment building in the Dahieh suburb of southern Beirut, without an evacuation warning, resulting in the total collapse of the building. According to a joint statement moments ago from the Israel Defense Force and Shin Bet, Senior Hezbollah official Hassan Badir and his son Ali were eliminated last night in an Israeli targeted strike in Dahiyeh, Beirut. He belonged to Hezbollah’s Unit 3900 and the Iranian Quds Force.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

US Air Campaign Against the Houthi: US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted at least 62 airstrikes targeting Houthi infrastructure and leadership in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen

Houthis claim to have shot down yet another American MQ-9 Reaper UAV. This would be the 16th Reaper downed by the Houthis.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza, battlefield preparations for the introduction of IDF divisions continues. Units already in Gaza continue to herd Hamas into smaller areas that haven’t been hit in the past (due to biden restrictions). Hamas brutality has silenced protests.

Israel continues to strike key terror leadership, with the hit in the Dahieh suburb of southern Beirut. Expect to hear a lot of complaints since there reportedly was no ‘warning’ given. This is a Hezbollah sector of Beirut.

Houthi continued to be bombed, and with the exception of the potential loss of a US recon drone, they are becoming quieter and quieter.

Iran’s threats of retaliation for any US / Israeli strike have been made towards Israel. More below.

Iran –

Collapse from Within: A Disintegrating Economy, Citizens in Crisis

The Iranian rial, the local currency, is plummeting uncontrollably. As of now, it trades at around 1,039,000 rials to the dollar—a drop of more than 30% in just the past three months. The implication is stark: to purchase basic goods, Iranian citizens must carry bags full of cash. This is a failing economy by every measure.

Official inflation is reported at 30–40%, though unofficial estimates suggest it is even higher. Under such conditions, an economy cannot function—it simply collapses.

Infrastructure Collapse and the Threat of Nationwide Multi-Front Chaos
Iran is grappling with:
- A severe water crisis: Approximately 35 million residents face water shortages due to mismanagement and severe drought.
- Power shortages: Planned blackouts and crumbling infrastructure persist, despite Iran sitting atop vast gas reserves.
- A weakened regular army: The proxy project has drained Iran’s economic resources, leaving little to invest in its air force, logistics, or manpower.

OBSERVATION - This is bearing strongly on the mullah’s, as the chance of an uprising rises as these areas continue to buckle. Any significant damage from the expected US / Israeli air strikes may be the final straw.

***
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is claiming to have attacked and seized two oil tankers today in the Persian Gulf, which they claim were part of a “fuel smuggling network” in the Gulf. The two tankers, identified as STAR l and VINTAGE, were captured during a naval operation by the IRGC earlier today, with 25 crew members being arrested while the tankers are transferred to an oil port in the city of Bushehr, where their fuel will be offloaded and seized by Iran. One of the tankers is believed to be owned and operated by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while the other is currently unknown.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1906756078592794922?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

IRGC Deputy Commander Ali Fadavi warns: Iran will strike back hard if provoked. “We control the Strait of Hormuz—40% of global oil passes through it. The U.S. is highly vulnerable at sea.”

OBSERVATION - Iran is tipping their hand in an effort to generate efforts of gulf states to call on the US to call off potential military strikes. A Straits of Hormuz response to any attacks on Iranian nuclear program is a very likely scenario. I doubt Iran would limit it - and would likely target ships of Gulf nations supporting the US.

The seizures arent about smuggling. This is about Iran flexing its power and threatening global shipping to push its agenda.

***
Ali Larijani, advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, warned: Any U.S. misstep on our nuclear program could push us—under public pressure—to build a nuclear weapon.

***
According to a senior Iranian official who spoke recently with The Telegraph, top military commanders in Iran’s Armed Forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are being urged to prepare a “preemptive strike” using long-range ballistic missiles against the U.S-U.K. joint base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, in an attempt to deter U.S. President Donald J. Trump from ordering major strikes against Iran.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1906852183246504172?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

OBSERVATION - One statement was that even if they don’t reach the island they will have sent a threatening message to Trump. Reality is they would have signed their death sentence.

Reality is that the only way the could directly hit Diego Garcia is if their “battle ship” sails out into the Indian Ocean and tries to get within range.

***
Add another stack to the US force preparations. Monitoring for confirmation of B1 deployments to the region. These additional bombers, along with the substantial force currently at Diego Garcia, could place Iran under nearly constant heavy bombing / cruise missile attacks. Now add the increase in A10s and wee doggies things have the potential to become really spicy.

Iran is voicing threats of responses to any attack.

1 Missile attack on Israel

2 Missile attacks on US forces in the region

3 Closure of the Straits of Hormuz

4 Unspecified heavy other strikes against the US - potential terror and cyber.

5 Preemptive strike against Diego Garcia

Iran has the capability for items 1 - 4 above. 5 is out of their reach except to waste missiles to hit in the Indian Ocean. When the bombs drop, I expect Iran to do all four or a combination there of. This would become an existential fight by the ruling Mullahs.

Response 1 will likely play out as the second Iranian attack in October did. Some missiles will get through but will have little effect overall. Israel has had these month to sharpen their defenses and have been reinforced by US THAAD systems.

Response 2 has potential to cause US casualties as there are approximately 50,000 (?) servicemen in Gulf region bases and the supply of Patriot batteries is limited. Barring a preemptive strike, I would expect US assets to be in the air or at sea when the bombs fall. And non-essential personnel out of harms way.

Response 3 is the standard go-to for Iran. It can make navigation thru the straits virtually impossible for a time. This is where we need a good amphibious force - possibly supplied by the Iwo Jima task force. Iranian naval assets will have a very short life span, so the bulk of the blockade will be from shore based positions (missiles, artillery, etc).

Response 4 is more difficult to play out, as it is asymmetric and can hit almost anywhere in the US or foreign interests. Potentially very lethal towards soft targets - like the hospital scenario I’ve noted several times now.

Response 5 is an exercise in futility IMHO, but let them waste missiles hitting the Indian ocean.

I’ve said Iran is a target rich environment. Besides the nuclear facilities, Iran’s oil production and shipping are wide open. Kharg Island handles nearly all oil shipments and is very poorly defended. Would likely be hit if Iran targets oil facilities of opposing gulf nations.

When the order is given to hit Iran, the region will erupt into very serious combat actions. The threat on the Straits of Hormuz alone warrant the third aircraft carrier CSG. Chinese exercises look to hold up the Nimitz CSG, so the additional carrier requirements will fall on the Bush or Ford CSGs, currently off the east coast (officially) executing war games.

Iraq -

The Iraqi Prime Minister affirms to the Syrian President Baghdad’s rejection of the Israeli incursion into Syria and its support for its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Venezuela -

The Chavista regime of Nicolás Maduro is playing with fire and knows it! US Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a stern warning yesterday from Guyana: any aggression against this country or ExxonMobil’s operations in the Essequibo will have “serious consequences” for Caracas.

In a press conference alongside Guyanese President Irfaan Ali, Rubio didn’t mince words: “It would be a very bad day for the Venezuelan regime, a very bad week, and it wouldn’t end well.”

Maduro, the tyrant who has plunged Venezuela into misery, has been escalating tensions with Guyana over the Essequibo for weeks, a resource-rich region he claims with arguments as flimsy as his economy.

Earlier this month, a Venezuelan military vessel dangerously approached an ExxonMobil platform in Guyanese waters, an act Washington called “unacceptable” and a “clear violation” of internationally recognized territory.
Rubio, backed by the might of the US Navy, reminded everyone that “we can reach any part of the world” if Chavismo crosses the line.

https://gatewayhispanic.com/2025/03/rubio-warns-maduro-any-aggression-against-guyana-or-exxonmobil/

OBSERVATION - OK, who had bombing Venezuela on their bingo card for April? Its been better than a year since we last heard any rumble about Venezuela seizing oil rich portions of Guyana.

The levels of chaos, wars and rumors of wars, seem to be increasing almost exponentially.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Imagine walking down the street, minding your own business, when a camera on a lamppost scans your face. Within seconds, an algorithm checks your identity against a database. Maybe you’re flagged as a match for someone the police are looking for, or maybe your image is stored for future reference without you even knowing. Sound like something out of a dystopian sci-fi movie? Think again. This is happening right now, and it’s only going to become more widespread.

Facial recognition cameras are popping up everywhere—at airports, train stations, shopping centers, and even outside your local grocery store. Governments and businesses claim these cameras help fight crime and keep people safe, but at what cost? The real question we should all be asking is: Who controls this technology, and what happens if it falls into the wrong hands?

https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=8070

OBSERVATION - The key for the globalists is control of the masses. They will try it using digital currency and even new forms of identification - the biggest being facial recognition. We see the test beds for this technology for years, from Facebook photos offering to ID photos on the basis of facial recognition and its Messenger App. Ever play the games on a video call with the funny faces? Facial recognition tool development as the app recognizes facial features to overlay the funny face.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
- “Hands Off 2025” on Saturday April 5th.

***
(FO) Organizers at Indivisible, probably the largest protest group in the country, are organizing a one-day “Hands Off!” protest in Washington, D.C., where they hope to draw a million protestors on Saturday, 05 April. Indivisible and other protest groups also have over 1,000 protest events throughout the country that day.

A recent Indivisible email tells readers that President Trump and senior advisor Elon Musk are planning a crackdown on protestors, and that this protest needs to be large “to show that the opposition to this regime is massive, and that it’s growing.”

OBSERVATION - Note the embedded propaganda saying the govt is going to crack down on the protest. This can well set the stage for violence and vandalism. Turnout for this will help gauge the level of resistance of these leftist sheep. A lot of leftist money if being poured into trying to get these protests up and going.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

The U.S. housing market is standing on a precarious edge, and almost no one is paying attention. Right now, over 1 million defaulted FHA mortgages are being artificially kept from foreclosure by government policies that should have ended with the pandemic. This is not just a housing problem—it’s a potential economic disaster waiting to happen.

If these policies continue, we risk inflating a new subprime housing bubble—one eerily reminiscent of 2008. If they suddenly end, we could see a massive surge in foreclosures that floods the market with inventory, leading to plummeting home prices and financial turmoil. Either way, the government’s intervention in the housing market is setting up a crisis that could shake not only homeowners but also the broader economy.

https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=8071

OBSERVATION - Housing market continues to be a critical indicator of economic health, and it is still on shaky legs.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Unconfirmed reports that US is sending the B-1 Lancer strategic bombers to the Middle East. Also still unconfirmed B52s at Diego Garcia. Again, if true, Iran is about to experience a serious awakening. But these are NOT confirmed!

***
NBC News is reporting that the Pentagon has ordered the relocation of at least 2 U.S. Army MIM-104 “Patriot” surface-to-air missile batteries and a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile defense system from Asia to the Middle East in the past few days, as tensions between Iran and the United States continue to grow and future military action against Iran seems more and more likely.

Reports of these relocations appear in line with a massive number of tracked military cargo flights to the Middle East over the last week by the U.S. Air Force’s Air Mobility Command (AMC), with dozens of C-17s and several C-5s arriving at Isa Air Base in Bahrain as well as other bases near the Persian Gulf, almost all of which originated from Osan Air Base in South Korea; with planes continuing to arrive today at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and Djibouti International Airport near Yemen.

The relocation of critical air-defenses such as THAAD and the repositioning of the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) and her Carrier Strike Group to the Middle East, as well as the deployment of at least 6 B-2 “Spirit” Long-Range Strategic Stealth Bombers recently to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, suggest that the United States may be preparing for a major conflict soon with Iran.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1907279644488798457?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

POLITICAL FRONT –

(FO) Fifth Circuit Judge James Ho said federal appeals courts should be prepared to step in when district courts “refuse to stay in their lane,” and there is a unique danger that some district courts may get “off track” and undermine faith in the courts. Ho said legal elites are imposing a double standard on judicial independence, which could be fatal to the rule of law.

***
per CNN, Democrats in Congress now have a whopping 21% approval rating.

This is a decrease of 1 point since the last poll.

***
In Wisconsin, a rabid leftist judge won election to the state supreme court, almost guaranteeing gerrymandering of new election districts in an effort to swing more democrats into congress.

On a positive note, voters there overwhelmingly approved a constitutional amendment requiring voter ID, and there were many school board elections that went favorable as well.

In Florida, in spite of large democrat spending, open congressional seats went republican.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

(FO) President Donald Trump said reciprocal tariffs on “all countries” will be unveiled tomorrow, and the tariffs will account for non-tariff trade barriers.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the tariffs will focus on the “dirty 15” foreign countries that have substantial tariffs and trade barriers, and account for significant U.S. trade volumes. According to Bloomberg data, the top 15 U.S. trade partners account for 75% of U.S. imports, and nine are in Asia.

OBSERVATION - The full impact of tariffs is yet to be seen. Yesterday, countries started to drop their tariffs on US products, notably Vietnam and Israel among others, to avoid the imposition of US tariffs.

Illegal Immigration –

New numbers for March border crossings are in:

2024: 137,000
2025: 7,000

94% decrease.

China –

76 PLA aircraft, 15 PLAN vessels and 4 official ships operating around Taiwan were detected up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 37 sorties crossed the median line and entered Taiwan’s northern, central, southwestern, and eastern ADIZ. We have monitored the situation and responded.

https://x.com/mondefense/status/1907236538947424489?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

During a joint exercise conducted by the PLA Eastern Theater Command around Taiwan Island, the PLA issued a radio message to a warship from Taiwan: “All our compatriots in Taiwan are members of the Chinese nation, and we should be proud of our Chinese identity.”

The Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army has release footage of today’s military exercise directed towards the Taiwan Strait, which has been named “Strait Thunder-2025A” by the PLA. The footage shows a live-fire drill by several PHL-16 self-propelled multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) firing rockets at targets which are clearly intended to signify Taiwan.

OBSERVATION - This is the most critical and dangerous exercise by China against Taiwan to date. It can easily transition into a full blockade in a moment. Currently, US has no carriers at sea in the region, as it waits for the Nimitz CSG to cross the Pacific. The Reagan CSG remains docked in Japan. With the US extending key forces into the middle east against Iran, China may seize upon the opportunity to go for the blockade option earlier than planned, thinking the US is too over extended to respond in a timely and forceful manner.

Russia -

*****
Fox News, citing an informed source: Trump is upset with Putin and believes Russia is stalling on ceasefire talks with Ukraine.

***
(Reuters) - Russia cannot accept U.S. proposals to end the war in Ukraine in their current form because they do not address problems Moscow regards as having caused the conflict, a senior Russian diplomat said, suggesting U.S.-Russia talks on the subject had stalled.

The comments by Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov suggest Moscow and Washington have so far been unable to bridge differences which President Vladimir Putin raised more than two weeks ago when he said U.S. proposals needed reworking.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-threatens-secondary-sanctions-russia-kremlin-says-it-is-continuing-talk-us-2025-04-01/

OBSERVATION - This should not be a surprise to anyone. putin thinks he can win and is winning via war and is only playing the ‘talks’ game to further spread discord among the west.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Rainy conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 50s range.

Russian forces are reportedly continuing to shell Ukrainian energy infrastructure amid ongoing negotiations over details of the ceasefire agreement on energy infrastructure strikes, indicating that Russia may be exploiting the ceasefire’s vague or unfinalized terms to strike Ukrainian energy infrastructure with shorter-range artillery, but not longer-range cruise missiles or one-way strike drones.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 74 Shahed drones of which 41 were shot down and another 20 were either lost in location or suppressed by electronic warfare and didn’t reach their intended target.

Overnight Kharkiv was attacked with at least 12 drones. Several fires started, about 7 people wounded. Drones also targeted the Odesa region.

U.S. Ambassador: Russia launched a record number of drones against Ukraine in March 2025. Over 4,000 drones were used—the highest monthly total since February 24, 2022.

Russian losses per 02/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1410 men
+10 tanks
+24 AFVs
+24 artillery

Summary —

Persistent rumors of an impending new Russian offensive. One report says that Russia has three divisions in training and set to soon launch the attacks against one Ukraine brigade’s sector.

To amass that level of force, Russia must have quietly pumped a lot more troops into the region and/or stripped other sectors down in order to build this reserve. I’ve noted increased artillery attacks in the Sumy sector, could mean that Russia is attempting to prepare the battle field for a rumored assault into that region.

Heavy fighting along the front, which at the current daily losses of 1200 - 1500 per day Russia is looking at current losses in the 40K / month range. Hard to build an effective offensive force when facing losses of that magnitude.

Shahed attacks resumed and the swarm tactic continues to get a significant number thru ADA.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- The 38th division has entered Gaza and is proceeding to move deep into Rafah.

- Turkey moving aggressively into the T-4 airbase near Homs.

- Potential of Clan vs Hamas civil war increasing.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel has dropped tariffs against US goods.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

After extensive overnight strikes in the southern Gaza Strip, the Israeli army deployed the 38th division to the area as Defense Minister Israel Katz says the military is expanding its offensive against Hamas. Palestinian media reported a large wave of strikes in Rafah and Khan Younis overnight, and this morning that troops were advancing in Rafah.

***
Unconfirmed. Anti-Hamas Gazan clans have taken up arms to defend themselves against Hamas

Hamxs supporters in a Gaza:
“The entire Abu Samra Clan must be wiped out”

OBSERVATION - Clan wars on the verge of throwing Gaza into a civil war. In part due to Hamas killing anti-hames protest leaders. There has been tension between the clans and Hamas for some time, not the pressures of the war are splitting things up again.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

The new Syrian government is working to open backchannels with Israel, aiming to pave the way for possible normalization—efforts backed by Saudi Arabia.
(I24 news)

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The US reportedly shot down a missile fired from Yemen over Saudi Arabia, which may have been on its way to Israel

Houthis claim massive rocket attacks on Israel and the US fleet in the Red Sea region. All false and for propaganda.

US aircraft continue to strike Houthi facilities.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Following yesterdays noted battlefield preparations, Israel has expanded operations in Gaza - southern Gaza in particular. Rafah and Khan Younis coming under pressure. These towns were central to the recent hostage release ‘shows’ of the last few months, so there is believed to be a significant concentration of Hamas, its leaders and potentially Israeli hostages. These same areas were declared no-go zones by biden, who threatened all arms cut off and even standing on the sidelines if the UN Scty Council passed any hostile resolutions.

Turkey’s rapid advance into the Homs region and T-4 in particular has clearly hostile potential for Israeli operations against Iran and may cause military conflict to a degree. Israel may probe the Turkish ADA and if targeted, use that as an excuse to take them out. Turkey has already threatened Israel in the past with invasion.

Iran –
- May 5th - end of negotiation window

28 days since Trump sent his letter to Khamenei, this makes the end of the two month window May 5th

U.S. is sanctioning 6 entities and 2 individuals based in Iran, UAE, and China responsible for the procurement of UAV components on behalf of Iran-based Qods Aviation Industries —a leading manufacturer for Iran’s UAV program

The WH reports that Trump is taking a serious look at indirect negotiations offered by Iran

OBSERVATION - Iran is facing an ever shortening time line. In line with common Iranian delay tactics, it tosses an ‘indirect’ negotiations offer. This as I said, is designed to delay any US attack and give Iran more time to prepare for its response. This is not unlike the tactic Hamas has been using, negotiate and obfuscate, to delay. We will see just how sincere Iran is, but their public statements indicate a pretty hard line on keeping their nuclear weapons development program as is.

Syria -

Report from Turkey: The Turkish army has begun moves to take control of the T4 base in the Tezmor area in Syria. According to the report, the move is intended to intensify the fight against ISIS and deter Israeli strikes in Syria. According to senior Turkish defense officials, S-400 and Hisar-O+ surface-to-air missile batteries will be deployed to the bases alongside long-range strike drones

OBSERVATION - Such a move, with air defense assets and radar, will eventually interfere with any Israeli action against Iran. This means that the window for an Israeli strike is closing, unless Israel takes the risk and hits the radars first. Such would increase tensions with Turkey to the point of potential conflict.
See Israel above as well.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
- “Hands Off 2025” on Saturday April 5th.

***

Still tracking “Hands Off 2025” preparations and potential numbers turnout. As usual, maintain situational awareness this weekend for this and other protests. Current estimations are that the potential for violence is low for this nation wide event. However, rhetoric for this as well as recent protests are encouraging increasing levels of violence.

National democrat leaders continue to refuse to condemn terroristic attacks on Tesla dealerships and individual owners, essentially condoning and encouraging further violent actions

***
(FO) Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT) told an audience last week that mass mobilization protests will likely be needed to combat the Trump administration.

“I will admit that this is a conversation happening inside the Democratic Party right now, as to whether you engage in sort of normal tactics or whether you have to engage in exceptional ways. So I think the threat to our democracy is real. It is acute. I think it is very likely you are going to need hundreds of thousands of people engaged in mass-scale mobilization… I’m going to argue that we should… engage in exceptional tactics because to me that is the only way that you ultimately create that connective tissue between the leaders of the party and the grassroots – when that moment comes that we need everybody out on the street,” Murphy explained.

OBSERVATION - Note - “engage in exceptional ways”, and “engage in exceptional tactics” - a covert call for political violence. Murphy is helping to set the foundational acceptance of violence as being justified.

***
Buried in the headlines are also numerous other protests on a wide spectrum of issues ranging from DOGE impacts to foreign policy to deportation of illegals. Still low potential for violence but isolated incidents can occur, keep alert.

***
Domestic terrorism directed at Tesla owners continues, but at a seemingly slower pace. This could be due in part to the aggressive search and arrests of the perps as well as the threat of felony charges. In one case an owner has filed a one million dollar lawsuit against the perp that keyed his Tesla. Others have been caught by owners and publicly shamed before police arrived and arrested them.

One potential reason for the apparent decline is that these vandals/domestic terrorists are actually being ARRESTED and aggressively charged with felonies. Remember, these leftists have cheered and endorsed revolving door law enforcement and the fact that currently they are actually facing consequences for their actions is delivering a slap in the face for other potential vandals/terrorists.

Leftists on line have been publishing locations of the many camera on Teslas, in an effort to thwart the massive photographic coverages of vandals, but forget a simple fact that they still get exposed by several cameras before covering them all.

So far attacks on Tesla dealerships appear to have stopped for now. Public perceptions of the violence are largely negative across the general population, though there is a core democrat contingent that claims such attacks are justified.

Meanwhile, the Democrats who have inspired all of this have said almost nothing about it. AOC has been asked about it twice and has replied that Republicans say all sorts of things about her.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

Trump officially signs reciprocal tariffs on pretty much everyone

US to impose tariffs on EU at a rate of 20%
China -34%
India - 26%
South Korea - 25%
Japan - 24%
Taiwan - 32%
United Kingdom - 10%
Vietnam - 46%.
Switzerland - 31%
Cambodia - 49%
South Africa - 30%
Indonesia - 32%
Brazil - 10%
Singapore - 10%
Israel - 17%.

CNBC: The new 34% tariff on China comes on top of the existing 20%, raising the total to 54%.

OBSERVATION - Markets not too happy, can’t project effects yet because the duration of these tariffs can change rapidly, depending on how quickly the targeted countries respond. Many expecting a downward Dow for the rest of the week. Losses are also enhanced by the over pricing of stocks.

A rule of thumb on most of these is that they appear to be about 50% of what the tariffs on US goods are for that particular country. Many countries are already responding by dropping their tariffs.

Some note no Russian tariffs, but currently there are tariffs on Russian oil sales being placed on nations purchasing Russia oil - so it is an indirect effect.

Effects on goods received in the US and cost increases are uncertain and unlikely to hit in at least the near term. As noted above, many countries are in negotiation mode to eliminate their tariffs in exchange for the dropping of US ones. Expect this activity to be very brisk over the next week or so.

***
(FO) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the U.S. is on track to hit the debt ceiling X date by May or June, and Republicans need to pass a debt ceiling increase through the reconciliation process before then. Bessent said Republicans cannot count on Democrats to help pass a bipartisan debt ceiling increase, and will have to rely on the reconciliation bill.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Sec Defense creating more shockwaves by instituting a single fitness test for men and women in combat arms. He has also ordered all senior NCO with 15+ years in and NO combat tours to give a power point presentation on how they AVOIDED combat service. Finally, he is looking to restore stricter grooming standards.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

A new peer-reviewed study links the mRNA covid-19 vaccines to long-term changes in genetic structures that can provoke an inflammatory response and lead to the onset of cancer and autoimmune disorders.

The study by 19 German scientists was published last week in Molecular Systems Biology. The researchers said their findings may account for “post-vaccination inflammatory diseases which occur in a small number of vaccinated individuals.”

Journalist Alex Berenson said the study shows that mRNA vaccines can alter human chromosomes in ways linked to leukaemia and brain tumours. This occurs when the mRNA vaccines “train” immune cells to sustain a pro-inflammatory immune response.

According to epidemiologist Nicolas Hulscher, “This study adds to the large body of evidence describing potent immune dysregulating effects of mRNA injections.”

https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/mrna-vaccines-linked-genetic-changes-cancer-autoimmune-disorders/

OBSERVATION - Just another among a growing number of studies coming out documenting the lethal side effects of the mRNA jab. Many of these were relegated to ‘conspiracy theory’ during the height of the plandemic and now are seeing the light of day. Worse yet, the so called ‘experts’ knew of these side effects (not only the ones listed in this report, but many others as well), but worked to censor reports like this that brought the dangers of the jab out in the open.

Really aggravating part is I seriously doubt anyone will see prison over this.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The DNC, Chuck Schumer, and Hakeem Jeffries are suing Trump over his EO to block non-citizens from voting.

OBSERVATION - This tells us just about everything we need to know about the democrats and how anti-american they are.

Cyber attacks/warfare –HIGH ALERT as of Mar 31, 2025
- Threat status elevated due to potential US / Israeli strike on Iran and Iran using cyber attacks in response.

***
Concerns that Chinese made components of solar panel farms contains firm ware that will attempt to subvert the power grid on command.

Illegal Immigration –

(FO) The Aurora, CO Police Department said it arrested a “highly sophisticated” burglary gang from Colombia in an operation with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Aurora PD said the Colombian nationals were placing trackers on victim’s vehicles and cameras around homes, to surveil targets.

China –

59 PLA aircraft, 23 PLAN vessels and 8 official ships operating around Taiwan were detected up until 6 a.m. (UTC+8) today. 31 sorties crossed the median line and entered Taiwan’s northern, central, southwestern, and eastern ADIZ.

OBSERVATION - China’s “Strait Thunder 2025A” continues, surrounding Taiwan with Taiwan maintaining an enhanced defensive response.

Russia -

*****

A Russian Tu-22M3 long-range supersonic bomber has crashed in the Irkutsk region.

All four crew members ejected; one pilot has been confirmed dead. Search operations for the remaining crew are ongoing.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Rainy conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 50s range.

RUMINT –

Russia is preparing reserves for a breakthrough at the front in May, – Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation (CPD). According to the CPD, the occupiers may focus their offensive on the northeast: Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions. Expected troop strength – up to 60,000.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

A relatively calm night. Russia launched 39 Shahed drones of which 28 were shot down and another 7 were suppressed by electronic warfare or were lost in location and didn’t reach their intended target.

However, that was insufficient to prevent at least 8 drone strikes reported in Kharkiv, with substantial fires in the city.

Russian losses per 03/04/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff.

+1390 men
+6 tanks
+22 AFVs
+49 artillery systems
+1 MLRS

Russians started using large mechanized columns again, now near Andriivka in the Kurakhove direction.

It seems the Russians have shifted focus to this sector. Yet, after three years, they still come up with the same tactics, with the same outcome. Russian lost 7 units this morning.

Summary —

The Ukraine staff understates it successes against Russia drones. 35/39 reportedly shot down/suppressed while at least 5 got thru. Math is failing to add up.

The rumors over a Russian offensive continue to grow. Part of this could be efforts to generate additional support from Europe and the US. The stagnation of the front lines could be due to the consolidation, reorganization and re-arming the reserve and other units cycled off the front lines. Russia recently had about that number shifted to Kursk to deal with that incursion.

The sudden apparent increase in the use of armor seem to be an indicator of a potential offensive. Russia could be testing Ukrainian tactics in response as well as these being reconnaissance in force attacks. Bad news for Russia is that they haven’t changed their tactics - trundling down a road with no covering fire or even smoke - getting hit and then the inexperienced drivers failing to take any aggressive responses to the interdiction besides trying to turn around and run. This just creates a turkey shoot for Ukraine FPV drones and artillery.

Europe / NATO General –

Spanish Prime Minister: Europe faces a US commercial attack from the West and a Russian military attack from the East.

***
Hungary announces its withdrawal from the International Criminal Court after the decision by Orbán’s government. The move comes shortly after Israeli PM Netanyahu’s visit, whose arrest warrant was issued by the ICC.

OBSERVATION -There appears to be a growing rift between some former Soviet Union countries like Hungary and the behemoth govt of the EU and its many heads, like the ICC.

***
NATO may play a key role in deploying European troops to Ukraine, with France and the UK leading talks. Plans include using NATO command structures, intelligence, and surveillance to support a “coalition of the willing.” Indirectly involving the US.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- IAF hit numerous bases in Syria that Turkish forces are expected to try and take over.

- IDF conducted ground raids in S Syria

- IDF pushes deeper into Gaza

- Lebanon pressured to disarm Hezbollah

——— GENERAL ——————————-

United States CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Kurilla, who arrived in Israel on earlier this week, held an assessment with Israeli army Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, the Israeli military says. The Israeli army says the meeting focused on “strategic security issues across the region.”

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

In a video statement earlier tonight, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirms that ground forces have reentered the Southern Gaza Strip, stating that their goal is to seize the “Morag Axis” which will run between Rafah and Khan Yunis, further separating Southern Gaza from its border with Egypt.

Ground operations: IDF demands residents of Gaza City evacuate - including from Shajaiyah

IDF forces have pushed into eastern Rafah

***
More reports of clan vs Hamas fighting in Gaza.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Lebanese media: The Lebanese government has received a demand from diplomatic sources to set a specific timetable for disarming Hezbollah.

This involves the reforms being carried out in Lebanon (in order to obtain international loans for the reconstruction of Lebanon), the elections for local authorities in Lebanon, and a dialogue to be conducted with the Shiite population in Lebanon.

It can be assumed that the US is behind the pressure on Lebanon on this issue.

The American envoy Morgan Ortagus is expected to arrive in Lebanon today, and demand a timetable for the full disarming of Hezbullah.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israel Defense Minister:
“I warn Julani (Syria): If you allow forces hostile to Israel to enter Syria and endanger Israeli security interests - you will pay a very heavy price.

***
The Israeli military says it killed several armed militants during an overnight raid in the Tasil region of southern Syria

The Israel Defense Force has confirmed that it targeted “remaining military capabilities” tonight at both the T-4 Air Base and Hama Air Base in Central Syria, which included runways, fuel depots and radars, along with additional military infrastructure sites near the capital of Damascus.

Fires continue to burn at Hama Air Base in Central Syria, following over a dozen airstrikes earlier by the Israeli Air Force, resulting in significant damage to the base as well as a number of casualties among military personnel of the Syrian Army.

Syrian reports that 3 Turkish engineers were killed in airstrikes on Hama airport.

Israeli Defense Minister Yisrael Katz: The raids on Hama and Damascus are a warning for the future. We will remain within the buffer zones in Syria.

***
A great deal of confusion during the night concerning Israeli operations in S Syria.

IDF Spokesperson:

“During the night, Brigade 474 forces operated in the Tasil region of southern Syria, confiscating weapons and destroying terrorist infrastructure.
During the operation, several gunmen fired at our forces in the area.
The forces responded with fire and killed several armed terrorists from the ground and air.

The forces completed their mission in the area, there were no casualties among our forces.”

Syrian sources say Israeli troops entered Daraa, southwest Syria with support of Apache helicopters.

Mosques in parts of Daraa, Syria were now chanting calls for residents to take up arms against Israel.

https://x.com/osint613/status/1907553777525387363?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

The Islamic Resistance in Syria (one of Khamenei arms) claims to have ambushed an “Israeli” military patrol in Daraa, southern Syria, reportedly causing Israeli casualties.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

US fighter/bombers continued the attack on Houthi terrorist targets in the Yemeni capital, Sanaa, and in the north of the country.

Two US airstrikes hit a communications site on Mount Namah in Yemen’s Ibb governorate—first strikes reported in the area. Houthi media says one killed.

Houthis claim to have shot down another US surveillance drone.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Iranian Foreign Ministry:
“We strongly condemn the air and ground military aggression launched by the Zionist entity against Syria and the destruction of civilian and scientific research facilities, as well as a series of the country’s defense infrastructure in the governorates of Damascus, Hama, Homs, and Daraa.”

Egypt’s Foreign Minister urges international pressure on Israel to implement an immediate ceasefire and accelerate humanitarian aid into Gaza.

Hama’s mouthpieces in the UN screaming about the ‘famine’ befalling Gaza.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

IDF continues to push into Rafah and Khan Yunis, S Gaza with little resistance noted. Israel also continues very aggressive strikes on Hamas et al leadership and identified command targets. Israel still has at least one division yet to commit, IIRC.

Lebanon relatively quiet, though external attention is coming to bear on their failure to disarm and displace Hezbollah north of the Litani River.

Syria been a very hot spot. Israel is very sensitive to Turkish forces establishing bases close to Israel given Erodogen’s threats to attack Israel over its fight with Hamas. The overnight attacks on former Syrian bases that Turkey is looking to move into highlight this. It could take months or even years for Turkey to repair and restore these bases to functional use. I expect to see even more airstrikes over the short term to maximize the rubbing of these facilities. These strikes have the danger of triggering open conflict with Turkey.

IDF more aggressive in the south with combat patrols hitting suspected ammo dumps, etc.

The visit of CENTCOM chief Gen. Michael Kurilla, indicates the “i”s being doted and the “t”s being crossed as the attack window on Iran gets closer. His visit also strongly suggests it will be a joint attack between the US and Israel, as many have indicated.

Misc of Note –

Besides political violence, Freepers need to maintain situational awareness as tornado season rips thru the south. Flooding is also expected from these storms.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The globalist World Economic Forum (WEF) founder Klaus Schwab has begun to “start the process” of stepping down as chair of its board of trustees, the Geneva-based institution confirmed Thursday.

The Financial Times first reported Schwab’s departure, citing a letter to trustee board members and confirmation by two people with knowledge of the situation. The missive reportedly said in part:

“I am deeply convinced that in today’s special context the forum is more important and relevant than ever before.”

“It is also financially very well equipped thanks to successful financial management since its beginning. What is essential now after the turmoil of the last months, is to recover our sense of mission.”

Schwab gave no timeline for his departure from the organization, of which he was executive chair for more than half a century. But the WEF said in a statement to the Financial Times the process should be completed by January 2027.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2025/04/04/founder-klaus-schwab-departing-as-world-economic-forum-chair/

OBSERVATIONS - Don’t get your hopes up too quickly - note the last paragraph - out by Jan 2027!!!! He is still a threat for another year and a half plus

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
- “Hands Off 2025” on Saturday April 5th.

Hype continues for tomorrow’s Hands Off protests and marches.

(FO) Over 200 political action and protest groups are sponsoring Saturday’s Hands Off! and Tesla Takedown protests, which will take place in Washington D.C. and at 880-1,200+ locations across the country.
Protestors will also gather outside ICE headquarters in Washington D.C., alongside a protest outside the White House.

OBSERVATION - Forward Observer analysts make the following analysis -

“ Indivisible organizers have stressed the political nature of their protest movement and called for nonviolence since the Justice Department got involved in the Tesla firebombings. But by publishing “Musk or Us” protest images which have shown a Tesla Cybertruck on fire, the messaging was previously undeniable. Indivisible has since removed these incendiary images from its website.”

“A majority of these protests will almost certainly be small – somewhere between single digits to several dozen – and organizers are hoping to put a million protesters in the capital. I tend to doubt they’ll surpass 500,000, based on previous underwhelming turnout. But even getting close to a million will prove that mobilization capacity on the Left is growing.”

“I haven’t seen traditional warning indicators that Far Left groups (i.e., Antifa) will show up to these protests. Political violence is generally unlikely, but remains possible, especially if counterdemonstrators are present”

FINAL OBSERVATION - Maintain situational awareness. Though the likelihood of significant violence is low, localized incidents is still a potential.

***
Antifa members in black uniforms marched on the uc davis campus to violently rob and assault a TPUSA livestream event featuring TheOfficerTatum. Their coordinated group actions show this was a conspiracy. UCDavisPolice watched and did nothing.

OBSERVATION - UC Davis is second only to UC Berkeley as an Antifa stronghold. Cowardliness of the UC police is par for the course.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

Oil prices down big time about $10/ barrel to $62 overnight

***
Dow slid 1,600 points, S&P 500 lost $2 trillion, Nasdaq posts biggest single-day losses since 2020 COVID-19 crash — CNBC

OBSERVATIONS - Lets remember there is a lot more behind this drop than just a response to tariffs. during the biden regime, the Fed printed TONS of money to artificially push economic activity. Much of this money ended up in the stockmarket ,making stocks VERY overpriced. One would be VERY hard pressed to equate the growth in the stockmarket over that period with ANY economic growth or activity . On the contrary, the economy staggered on the brink of recession. What is being seen is more along the lines of correction of the market.

***
Key foundational item regarding US tariffs - they are approximately 50% of what the targeted countries levy against US products.

Tariff responses are already coming in -

- On Wednesday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that Mexico will not impose retaliatory tariffs if U.S. President Donald Trump proceeds with his planned tariffs set to take effect on April 2.

- China has officially announced that it will impose tariffs of 34% on all imports from the US - similar to the tariff rate that Trump imposed on imports from China this week. China has in response raised it tariffs.

- General Motors is increasing production in Indiana after Trump’s tariffs - Reuters

- Ford is slashing prices and increasing US production.

- Stellantis, the parent company of Chrysler, Jeep, and Dodge, is reopening the Belvidere Assembly Plant in Illinois as part of its $5BILLION investment in U.S. manufacturing. This move will bring back 1,500 union jobs—a direct boost to American workers.
At the same time, Stellantis is temporarily furloughing 900 workers across five U.S. plants as a short-term adjustment to shifting economic conditions.

- Argentina in final negotiations with the US to become the first zero-tariff country.

- Israel is moving to rid it of its tariffs against US products.

***
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed 228,000 new jobs were created in March, more than the 140,000 expected by economists, the 117,000 seen in February, and the 158,000 average monthly gain seen over the last year.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from the 4.1% seen in the prior month.

Jobs were created, but unemployment rose slightly. What this possibly means is that lots of people who were DOGE’d may be out of work, or simply that more people are now in the labor market looking for jobs than last month.

https://notthebee.com/article/march-jobs-report-nearly-doubles-expectations

OBSERVATIONS - Relatively good news, at least there is stability.

***
(FO) Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi warned there’s a 15% chance of a “dark scenario” where a global tariff war leads to immediate “serious recessions” lasting until next year. “If the 25% tariff is fully implemented quickly and largely maintained, and U.S. trading partners retaliate approximately tit-for-tat, the U.S. and global economies will not suffer a depression, but they will suffer serious recessions. The recession will hit imminently and extend until next year. Real GDP will fall close to 2% peak to trough, and unemployment will increase from its current 4% to 7.5% at its peak next year. I attach a 15% probability to this dark scenario,” Zandi writes.

OBSERVATION - These guys are in some ways paid to be pessimistic. We’ve monitored continued warnings of recession over the years. The ‘fully implemented and largely maintained’ aspect is the weakest argument. As noted above, countries are already moving to eliminate their tariffs against US products and industries moving quickly to return production state side as well.

POLITICAL FRONT –

General Timothy D. Haugh, the Commander of U.S. Cyber Command (CYBERCOM), Director of the National Security Agency (NSA), and Chief of the Central Security Service (CSS) has been removed tonight from all of his military and civilian positions effective immediately, alongside his Deputy Director at the NSA Wendy Noble, who has been reassigned to the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence. The reason for both of their removals is currently unknown, with General Haugh hosting Trump Advisor Elon Musk last month at the NSA’s Headquarters in Fort Meade, Maryland.

POTENTIALLY RELATED - -

Six members of U.S. President Trump’s White House National Security Council (NSC) were fired earlier today, including Brian Walsh, the senior director for intelligence; Maggie Dougherty, the senior director for international organizations; and Thomas Boodry, the senior director for legislative affairs, following a meeting yesterday in the Oval Office between President Trump and far-right conspiracy theorist and well-known liar Laura Loomer, who laid out a list of people she believed were disloyal to the President and didn’t share his “America First” Vision. National Security Advisor Mike Walz later joined in the meeting and briefly defended some of his staff, though it was clear he had little if any power to protect their jobs from the ear of Trump and ramblings of Loomer. However, the main target of Loomer’s visit and someone who she as well as other far-right personalities have continuously lambasted on social media for weeks, Deputy National Security Advisor Alex Wong was not removed, at least as of yet.

OBSERVATIONS - Deeper house cleaning. Still probably have more rats in the corners of the house. Haugh was appointed by biden.

TRUMP Watch –

Reuters: Trump says he spoke with Netanyahu who may visit the White House next week

OBSERVATION - Multiple issues likely to be discussed from Gaza/Iran to tariffs.

China –

See tariff response above.

China continues its exercise around Taiwan, though there are indicators that it may be winding down.

North/South Korea –

South Korea’s Constitutional Court upheld the legislature’s impeachment of former President Yoon Suk Yeol, South Korea must now hold snap presidential elections within 60 days of the ruling.

OBSERVATION - This is one of many leftist / communist attacks on conservative / right leaderships.

Russia -

*****
SECSTATE Rubio says Russia has “weeks” to show it’s serious about peace negotiations with Ukraine.

OBSERVATION - Though no tariffs were specifically placed on Russia (and Belarus for that matter), it is due largely to the lack of trade between US and them. Economic sanctions of other kinds are already in place and increasing focus on hitting their life blood - oil exports - is growing.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 30-40 degree range with rain / showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia attacked Ukraine with 78 Shahed-type drones. A total of 42 of them were shot down and 22 were lost in location or either downed with the help of electronic warfare. Russian drone attacks appeared to focus on Dnipro and Kharkiv. Over 30 injured in Kharkiv, 2 killed, with more possibly trapped under the rubble.

Ukraine’s General Staff reports Russia losses -

+1380 men
+7 tanks
+30 AFVs
+38 artillery
+1 MLRS

Overnight, Ukraine drones struck Russia’s Lipetsk and Moscow regions. In Lipetsk, around 20 explosions were reported, possibly targeting a steel plant or military airfield. In Moscow, drone debris shattered windows, while airports were shut down under “Carpet” mode. Additional strikes and explosions were also reported in Serpukhov.

Russian Ministry of Defense reports 107 drones were shot down overnight

Summary —

Moderately heavy fighting among the front overnight.

Videos / images of recent action indicate that spring rains are making the terrain muddy again and may be one of the reasons Russians are using more tracked armored vehicles (Tanks and APCs) in their assaults as wheeled vehicles have increasingly difficulty traversing the terrain - even dirt roads that have been torn up by war traffic.

The success of Russia’s swarming tactic for drone attacks appear to be resulting in fewer drones needed in their attacks. A relatively small number last night 78, resulted in at least 14 of them penetrating Ukraine defenses and hitting their targets.

Europe / NATO General –

NATO’s Supreme Commander in Europe, Christopher Cavoli, states it’s hard to imagine a major Ukrainian counteroffensive reclaiming every inch of land, but equally hard to imagine Ukraine losing the conflict. Ukraine’s defeat is not inevitable.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Operations continue to expand in Gaza

- Hamas ready to release all remaining hostages?

- Iran has ordered military personnel to leave Yemen

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Hamas is ready to release all remaining 59 hostages in Gaza in exchange for a permanent cease-fire with Israel, Palestinian officials said.

As Israel ramps up its military campaign in Gaza, the terror group told negotiators it was prepared to free all its hostages so long as it gets assurance that Jerusalem will withdraw all its forces, a senior Palestinian official told the Times of Israel.

It remains to be seen if the proposal will be accepted, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long rejected any deal that does not include Hamas’ complete defeat, including demilitarization and its permanent exit from Gaza.

https://nypost.com/2025/04/03/world-news/hamas-says-it-will-release-all-israeli-hostages-at-once-to-end-the-war-report/

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Early this morning, the Israeli army says it has expanded its ground operations in the northern Gaza Strip, with troops pushing into Gaza City’s eastern Shejaiya neighborhood. According to the military, the operations are aimed at expanding Israel’s buffer zone along the Gaza border

***
The IDF and Shin Bet say a strike on a Hamxs command center in Jabalia, northern Gaza, killed at least four operatives, including one involved in the October 7 attack.

Among the dead: Shadi Falouji, who infiltrated Israel on October 7; Mohammed Sharif, tied to Hamxs’s general security and a hostage release event; Mohammed Daour, head of a rocket unit; and Mohammed Askari, part of a rocket squad and security team.

https://x.com/osint613/status/1907874562533888499?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

A senior Hamas commander was killed in an Israeli airstrike in the coastal Lebanese city of Sidon overnight, the military announces. Hassan Farhat had headed Hamas’s forces in the western sector of Lebanon, according to the Israeli army. The Israeli airstrike had hit his apartment

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

An Israeli raid targeted the 75th Brigade in Al-Maqliba, in the Al-Kiswah area. A second Israeli raid targeted the 75th Brigade in the town of Al-Muqaylibah in the Damascus countryside, Syria.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The UK Telegraph reported on Thursday that Iran has ordered military personnel to leave Yemen, abandoning its Houthi allies as the US escalates an air strike campaign against the rebel group.

A senior Iranian official said the move aimed to avoid direct confrontation with the US if an Iranian soldier was killed.

The official said Iran was also scaling back its strategy of supporting a network of regional proxies to focus on the direct threats from the US instead.
Tehran’s primary concern, the source said, was “Trump and how to deal with him”.

https://www.breitbart.com/middle-east/2025/04/03/report-iran-retreating-from-trump-after-he-pounds-houthis-in-yemen/

Ynet reports: Iran returns military personnel from Yemen, “believes the end of the Houthis is near”

***
Continued US military strikes against Houthi targets in the Saada province in Yemen

***
According to Jen Griffin with Fox News, U.S. defense officials have confirmed that 3 MQ-9 “Reaper” surveillance and attack drones with the U.S. Air Force have been downed over the last month by the Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist group in Yemen, with the most recent shoot downs occurring both Monday and Thursday. An official further added that the U.S. has lost at least 17 MQ-9s over Yemen since the ongoing war between Hamas and Israel began in October 2023, which is close to the number of drone interceptions claims by the Houthis.

***
The US military killed Brigadier General Muhammad Shweki, a senior member of the Houthi security forces, in Hodeidah, along with his brother and bodyguards.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza - Seems the increased operations is generating a potential split in Hamas as I judge the ‘offer’ of total release of hostages (no time frame) as a sign of increasing weakness. I say split because at the same time, apparent hardliners in Hamas will only go as far at the offer to release 5 in exchange for hundreds of prisoners and a couple of months of ceasefire.

IDF units are taking new ground a piece at a time and show no signs of being held back as was common during biden’s regime. IAF continues to hit identified high value targets regardless of where they are, apartments, schools or medical/hospitals.

Lebanon is static and pending news as to if the US’ kick to their rear ends is going to motivate them to uphold their end of the ceasefire agreement in a serious way and deal with Hezbollah.

Syria continues to be a potential flash point between Israel and Turkey. This impacts Israel’s planning on hitting Iran and current airstrikes on bases Turkey is looking to take over is necessary to delay occupation and potential interference with an Iranian strike. Longer term, having Turkish F16s and long range drones on their back yard is not very calming to Israel either.

Houthis are feeling the pain. I noted shortly after they started attacking shipping in the Red Sea region, the only way to get their attention would be through heavy and sustained air attacks. Apart from their claims of sinking the Truman numerous times over, shipping attacks have stopped and they’ve only been able to get 1 to 2 missiles toward Israel a day - all of which never reach Israeli airspace. Now reports that Iranian support troops are bugging out show how far these current air campaign have hurt the Houthis. We are not done yet, because they are like cockroaches, but soon they will lack a lot of ability to attack shipping.

Iran –
- May 5th - end of negotiation window

The Wall Street Journal: Trump administration presses for direct talks with Iran

American officials: We will not agree to talks between different teams that will take days, weeks or years.

Iran insists: Indirect talks with the US administration.

OBSERVATION - They have it correct. Any negotiations are only for the purpose of Iran delaying the inevitable - disarm or be disarmed forcefully.

***
Senior Israeli official: “The readiness for a combined Israeli-US strike on Iran is a matter of minutes from a final decision.”

***

The Russian Foreign Ministry warned on Thursday that US threats of attack against Iran are “unacceptable” and could result in a “catastrophe”.

“The use of military force by Iran’s opponents in the context of the settlement is illegal and unacceptable. Threats from outside to bomb Iran’s nuclear infrastructure facilities will inevitably lead to an irreversible global catastrophe. These threats are simply unacceptable,” Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov also told Life magazine that the “consequences of this, especially if there are strikes on the nuclear infrastructure, could be catastrophic for the entire region.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-warns-against-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites-catastrophic-illegal

ASSESSMENT - Iran is going to avoid direct negotiations like the plague. They want the delaying nature of indirect talks and the ability to play word games over claims of what the US ‘said’ versus what the US actually said. Though Trump didn’t totally rule out such discussions, it seems clear to me that he sees the trap and is moving forward with his strike plans. He has to, any backtracking on his two month window threat only encourages Iran.

Of course Russia is going to speak up - they are invested up to their ears in receiving support for the Ukraine war from them as well as likely supplying technology for potential nuclear weapon development.

Iraq -

Iraqi Foreign Ministry: Yesterday’s Israeli raids on areas in Syria confirm the government’s aggressive expansionist approach and represent a flagrant violation of international law.

***
Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq says it has deployed forces along the Syrian border

Syria -

The Turkish Foreign Ministry said in a statement: Israel must withdraw from Syria and stop harming stability efforts there. Israel’s raids on Syrian sites on Wednesday cannot be understood apart from its approach, which thrives on conflict. Israel is destabilizing the region and fostering chaos.

Turkish FM says Turkey doesn’t seek confrontation with Israel in Syria, urges diplomacy amid U.S.-Iran tensions and opposes any attack on Iran. Adds that if Syria wants understandings with Israel, it’s “their business,” but warns Israeli strikes risk regional instability and undermine Syria’s fight against ISIS. - Reuters

SEE ISRAEL ABOVE

Globalism / Great Reset –

“So that signals to me that I should probably pay attention the next time the World Economic Forum makes a prediction and calls it inevitable (cmt - like they did with wuhan) . And low and behold, they are predicting that a cyber-pandemic is going to happen, and that it is once again ‘inevitable.’

If you look into the exercise that they’ll run this year - I believe they’ll run it in July - essentially their idea is that they’re going to have to ‘sanitize’ the internet, because a bug - think of it as a ‘coronavirus’ for your computer - is going to sweep globally, and they only way they’re going to be able to stop this bug from infecting everything is to effectively shut down the internet. And they were talking about bringing down the power grid in order to do this.”

https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=8079

OBSERVATION - WEF and associated globalists have been ‘warning’ of a massive incident affecting the internet and attached systems, such as the power grid and banking. There are enough potential cyberbombs planted throughout the inter webs that this scheme could easily be pulled off - invent the ‘virus’ and present the cure. Standard communist / marxist ploy folks. We need to stay alert for this ‘exercise’ this summer.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
- “Hands Off 2025” on Saturday April 5th.

Today is ‘D-day’ for the hands off movement. Turnout will be a significant indicator of potential gaining of traction by leftists to mobilize the sheep. Again, anticipation is that these will be peaceful gatherings, however, there is always the possibility of violence and vandalism by buried elements.

***
Obama Warns: “Sacrifice May Be Necessary” to Resist Trump Former President Barack Obama admitted during a speech at Hamilton College in Clinton, New York, that some sacrifice might be necessary in order to resist President Donald Trump’s policies.
During the event, Obama accused the Trump administration of trying to destroy the post-World War II international order.
He then called Trump’s behavior “contrary to the basic compact we have as Americans” and urged students to do more to resist Trump’s policies.
“It has been easy during most of our lifetimes to say you are a progressive, or say you are for social justice, or say you are for free speech, and not have to pay a price for it,” Obama said.
“And now we’re in one of those moments when… it’s not enough just to say you’re for something. You may actually have to do something and possibly sacrifice a little bit.”

https://www.dailyfetched.com/obama-warns-sacrifice-may-be-necessary-to-resist-trump/

OBSERVATION - Calling for violence without calling for violence. Speeches like this set the foundations for later overt calls of violence - he calls it ‘sacrifice’.

***
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has announced the launch of a rogue “shadow government” dubbed the People’s Cabinet — a brazen attempt to sabotage President Donald Trump’s America First agenda.

The announcement comes on the heels of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz’s shocking call for a “shadow government” during a recent town hall in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, where he openly advocated for what he called “alternate press conferences” to spin the public with Democrat-approved talking points.
Now, DNC Chair Ken Martin is taking that vision a step further, turning it into an official operation.

The so-called People’s Cabinet is being marketed as a group of “experts, leaders, and everyday Americans,” but in reality, it’s a coalition of washed-up leftist bureaucrats, failed politicians, and radical activists who are hellbent on blocking President Trump’s common-sense efforts to restore sanity to the country.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/04/dnc-chair-announces-democrats-are-launching-shadow-government/

OBSERVATION - There have been other semi-announcements of a shadow cabinet by democrat congress critters following Trump’s election. By moving to an ‘official’ operation, the democrats are fomenting insurrection.

***
Palm Sunday is tomorrow and Easter the following weekend - the whole week faces potential islamic acts of terror around the “Christian” world.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

President Trump calls on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates as the 10 Year Treasury has fallen below 4%.

OBSERVATION - It is unlikely Powell will do this.

***
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 2,231.07 points, or 5.5%, to 38,314.86 on Friday, the biggest decline since June 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. This follows a 1,679-point decline on Thursday and marks the first time ever that it has shed more than 1,500 points on back-to-back days.

OBSERVATIONS - Some are saying that the Dow has entered bear territory. I still say that the Dow had been sitting on an overvalued bubble just waiting to be popped. Next week as details and international responses to the tariffs become clearer the Dow will settle down.

Gold and Silver also took hit - especially silver. Seems when major drops in the Dow hit, the metals get hit as investors seem to pull cash out of metals to cover for stock losses. Gold is still above $3000, while Silver is waaaaaaay down, under $30/oz.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

CNN, citing US military officials, reports that several fighter squadrons and air defense systems will soon be deployed to the Middle East.

OBSERVATION - Some observers indicate that two Patriot and one THAAD systems have already been deployed. Same for fighter assets.

***
An Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyer, believed to be the USS Wayne E. Meyer (DDG-108), observed on satellite imagery cruising near Diego Garcia. The Meyer is a Flight IIA Destroyer, is equipped with Baseline 9.2.1 (BMD 5.1) of the Navy’s Aegis Combat System, which allows the Meyer to simultaneously conduct air warfare alongside ballistic missile defense

OBSERVATION - IIRC, pretty standard watch protecting DG from multiple sources of attack.

Iran can only strike DG if they deploy their lumbering (whole wapping 16 knots max) converted cargo ships - one a missile ‘battle ship’ and the other a drone ‘aircraft carrier’. They will be at the bottom of the sea faster than the Iranian intel ship a few months ago.

POLITICAL FRONT –

A North Carolina appeals court has ruled that more than 60,000 voters who voted in the state’s Supreme Court election in November 2024 must verify that they are eligible to vote.

The ruling from the appeals court ordering “more than 65,000 voters” to prove their eligibility comes after Judge Jefferson Griffin, who ran against North Carolina Supreme Court Justice Allison Riggs in November, challenged the results of the election, according to NBC News.

Per the outlet, voters “now have 15 business days to provide state elections officials with the necessary proof of identity that would verify their votes,” and voters who do not respond “will not have their votes counted in the race.”

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/04/04/north-carolina-appeals-court-rules-over-60k-voters-must-verify-eligibility/

OBSERVATION - The democrat won by only 700 some votes. This successful challenge could pave the way for other challenges to these very narrow democrat victories where potential ballot stuffing has believed to have been taking place.

Illegal Immigration –

One of the rogue judges demands an illegal gang member be brought back from El Salvador. White House response is that the individual is no longer under US jurisdiction and the judge needs to contact the president of El Salvador.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend down to the 30-40 degree range with rain / showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 92 Shahed drones of which 51 were shot down and another 31 were lost in location or suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 05/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

+1390 men
+13 tanks
+20 AFVs
+67 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system

Overnight, Ukrainian attack drones successfully penetrated over 750km into Russian airspace and struck Russia’s only domestic fiber optic producer, an immensely key link for Russian drone production, in Saransk.
The facility is heavily damaged and burning. It reportedly produces 20–30% of the country’s supply, per a 2024 report from Kommersant.

Another strike targeted the Promsintez explosives factory in Samara Oblast.

Summary —

Moderately heavy fighting along the front, no significant changes in territory control.

The fiber optics plant hit by Ukraine in Saransk is going to hurt Russia in the near and potentially long term. FPV drones have become the go to for defensive and offensive operations - becoming more efficient in some cases than artillery. The EW realm has become incredibly saturated with jamming, so Ukraine first developed fiber optics systems for its drones. They just recently announced the new extended range of 20km. Russia has been struggling to keep up with the technological advances. Russia got hurt because sanctions limit them from getting material and equipment to replace factories.

Russia still getting effective penetrations of Ukraine ADA even with fewer drones.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Gazan operations continue to expand

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Muhammad Hassan Awad, intelligence chief of the Al-Mujahideen Brigades—responsible for the abduction and murder of Shiri Bibas and her children—has been eliminated!

Hamas Propaganda figure involved in hostage videos, Mohammed Al-Bardawil, was successfully eliminated by the IDF in Gaza.

***
Hamas spokesman Abu Ubeida declares: We decided not to evacuate the hostages from combat zones that the IDF said they should evacuate this week

NOTE - Hamas is deliberately keeping hostages in dangerous, life threatening conditions.

***
Gazan clans clashes with Hamxs in Gaza appear to be escalating.

***
The Hamas-controlled Gaza Health Ministry has updated its death toll lists in the past 24 hours, removing some 3,400 names, including 1,080 children who were said to have been killed. They were inflating numbers all along

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

This category has been largely silent as it seems Israel operations in Judea and Samaria have stopped and terror encampments cleaned out for now.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Defense officials appear to confirm that the US is now using JASSM stealth air-launched cruise missiles and B-2 stealth bombers to strike Houthi targets in Yemen.

Saudi Al Hadath: 70 Houthis killed in US strike south of Hodeidah, including Iranian Revolutionary Guards experts

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Situation relatively stable for the moment.

Gaza operations continue to squeeze Hamas and affiliated groups into a smaller and smaller area.

Lebanon relatively quiet

Syria - no significant IAF strikes on former Assad military bases that Turkey wants to move into.

US of B2s against the Houthis is no surprise and may well serve at training for the big event against Iran.

The big event - strike on Iranian nuclear families - is still on the front burner with the clock ticking.

Iran –
- May 5th - end of negotiation window

Various news agencies are reporting that Iran may be considering a preemptive strike against US base(s) in the Persian Gulf region to deter or disrupt US / Israeli planning and preparation for a strike. Such rumors initially looked at Iran’s threat to strike Diego Garcia, with systems that do not have the range. More at link below

https://endtimeheadlines.org/2025/04/iranian-military-commanders-considering-preemptive-strike-on-joint-u-s-u-k-base/

OBSERVATION - That would be a dangerous move by Iran. The US appears to have enough forces in place to launch initial counter strikes. The Vinson is estimated to be a week away from being on station. The US can scramble B52, B1 and remaining B2 from US bases. They would be throwing gasoline onto a fire, making the US response even greater than what may be currently planned.

***
The U.K. Office of Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) states that vessels are reporting interference today with their Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and other electronic navigation systems in the Strait of Hormuz, likely as a result of jamming by Iran.

Misc of Note –

Over there past years, we’ve successfully avoided several potential convergences of threats that could have caused immense chaos to the country. It may be early to call, but I’m getting concerned that we may be facing our next one this summer.

- Attack on Iran triggering regional war and terror attacks in the US

- Leftists finally getting some traction to instigate Floyd level violence over deportations, DOGE and Trump in general

- Efforts to kick any remaining economic supports out and deliberately drop us into a recession.

- More aggressive globalist / deep state actions against the US and Trump.

Some of these are still a ways out from coming to fruition. Others could happen at any moment. Trying to objectively maintain observational balance and keep excessive paranoia at bay.

It is very clear, the left is intent on laying out the conditions for violence to force their agenda on the public. Any kind of violence. And there are plenty of mind-numbed leftist sheeple who are eating the calls for violence up for breakfast.

Stay sharp in the coming months and check your preps agains.

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