Potentially turbulent week ahead. Start of broad tariffs, the April 5 protests and what ever else is poised to come our way.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
- “Hands Off 2025” on Saturday April 5th.
***
Trump supporter at a Tesla dealership mowed down by anti-Musk demonstrator Allan Talbot (Idaho). It’s only a matter of time until an anti-Tesla lunatic kills someone for owning a Tesla or for supporting Tesla.
In AZ, two elderly women were cut off an assaulted because they drove a Tesla.
It’s only going to get worse-remember all the leftists and the media that have encouraged this!
Vandalism of individual’s Teslas continue across the country, but along with it are increasing felony arrests of the perps.
Of particular note, signage and chants at these Tesla protests contained a considerable amount of encouragement to commit more vandalism of dealerships and individuals and even some increased calls for physical violence against owners.
***
Increasing numbers of Tesla supporters are beginning to show up to counter the protestors. This will increase the potential for violence between the groups - as especially noted in the above vehicular assault on a Tesla supporter.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Mar 18, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
- Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month.
***
The entrance to the Republican Party of New Mexico’s headquarters in Albuquerque was destroyed in a deliberate act of arson Sunday morning, according to reports.
The message “ICE = KKK” was spray painted on the building.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
The Dow is reportedly suffering the jitters as the start date of Trump’s tariffs are fast approaching. Could be a rough week as the market tries to plot out the impacts to the economy.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
OSINT observers have the current buildup at Diego Garcia airbase in the Indian Ocean:
7 B-2 ‘Spirit’ stealth bombers
8 B-52H ‘Stratofortress’ bombers
7 Boeing C-17 ‘Globemaster’ lll
10 Boeing KC-135 ‘Stratotankers’
1 P-8A ‘Poseidon’
These are the numbers that are confirmed, and they are conservative estimates.
OBSERVATION - This is the first time I’ve seen B52s declared present at Diego Garcia. All the recent talk has been about the B2s. If this is correct, and I suspect it is, Iran is walking into an inferno. The old workhorse B52 can carry a lot of bombs, but potentially more significant in this current scenario - a whole lot of cruise missiles. If one could wrap the whole potential attack package together - B2, B52, naval and USAF strike assets, Israeli assets - and executed with surprise and mass, Iran will be hit like no other nation has in recent times.
***
Unconfirmed. Observers are noting a potential major airlift by the U.S. Air Force’s Air Mobility Command (AMC) that appears to be ongoing between Osan Air Base in South Korea and Isa Air Base in Bahrain; with several C-17s over the last few days observed flying between the bases. The thought is that they are likely transporting MIM-104 “Patriot” surface-to-air missile batteries as well as other air-defense systems and munitions to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM).
This would be an expected response by the US in anticipation of Iranian retaliatory fire from a US lead strike. Of concern is that out Patriot and even THAAD units are stretched.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Probably the most significant election since Nov 2024 is the upcoming Wisconsin vote this week. At stake is the control of the state supreme court and the democrats desire to gain control in order to gerry mander new districts and potentially swing new congressional democrats that could swing control of congress to the democrats.
Elon Musk’s held a massive event in Wisconsin to rally support for the republican candidate.
TRUMP Watch –
Media attacks on the Trump administration due to the Atlantic‘s leak of Signal messages do “not seem tied to evaluations of Mr. Trump overall,” according to a CBS News poll that found the president’s approval rating to be 50 percent.
The poll, released Sunday morning, surveyed more than 2,600 Americans from across the country on March 27 and 28.
OBSERVATION - Left leaning CBS polling shows essentially no loss of support over the Signalgate ‘scandal’ and that support for Trumps policies remain strong.
Media heads must be exploding
Cyber attacks/warfare –HIGH ALERT as of Mar 31, 2025
Threat status elevated due to potential US / Israeli strike on Iran and Iran using cyber attacks in response.
Illegal Immigration –
A growing number of illegal migrants are smuggling themselves out of the United States to avoid the legal penalties of government deportations, according to multiple witnesses.
Alfredo Corchado, an American journalist in Texas and Mexico and an executive editor at the Puente News Collaborative, told an audience at the Council on Foreign Relations:
“[Coyotes] are now offering packages where [migrant] people can go back home …. [If] you want to go home, or you want to go back to Honduras, or maybe you don’t want to go back to Honduras because it’s too dangerous. [Or] you don’t want to go to Guatemala, but maybe you want to go to Costa Rica, and so they’re offering these [smuggling] packages where you can just go back home. Not all of them are taking it, I mean, many [are].”
https://www.breitbart.com/immigration/2025/03/29/coyotes-are-smuggling-migrants-out-united-states/
***
Federal data shows that Immigration and Customs Enforcement has nearly 50,000 detainees as President Trump’s policy of mass deportation of criminal illegals continues.
It is ten thousand more than Joe Biden’s high of nearly 40,000 detentions.
Federal data shows that detentions had reached to 47,892 detainees as of March 23. The number exceeds the 39,703 reached during the Biden years. It isn’t yet as high as the 60,000 reached during the first Trump term, but it seems clear that record will be broken.
https://www.breitbart.com/immigration/2025/03/29/ice-has-nearly-50000-illegal-migrants-in-detention/
Russia -
*****
(ISW). A Russian diplomat provided additional details following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent thinly veiled demand for regime change in Ukraine by having external parties establish a “temporary international administration” in Ukraine under the auspices of the United Nations (UN). More
- Logvinov and TASS are supporting Putin’s recent effort to inject a new demand into discussions about the resolution to the war that is consistent with the Kremlin’s long-standing effort to ensure the installation of a government friendly to Russia in Ukraine.
- The Kremlin is also attempting to dictate the sequencing and processes surrounding the demand while holding the ceasefire negotiation hostage to extract additional concessions from the West.
- UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres rejected Putin’s proposal to establish a temporary administration in Ukraine and stated that Ukraine has a legitimate government that must be respected on March 28.
Economic Impact –
President Donald Trump said Sunday he’s “very angry” and “pissed off” at Vladimir Putin over the Russian president’s remarks late last week suggesting the removal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the implementation of a “transitional administration” in Ukraine.
In a Sunday morning interview with NBC News, Trump threatened a 25% tariff on Russian oil if a ceasefire deal can’t be reached.
“If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia,” Trump told NBC News.
OBSERVATION - With growing evidence that putin is not negotiating in good faith but going beyond that is getting under Trump’s skin, as well it should. Trump knows that Russia oil is the lifeline of today’s Russia and its income has become critical to supporting its war efforts. Note the tariffs are not on Russia alone, but every country that purchases Russia oil, casting a pretty broad net. This will impact China significantly who’s economy is also struggling.
At this stage, putin seems to think he has Trump in his back pocket and is immune to non-military actions. Trump may well be playing “rope a dope” with putin.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Rainy conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 50s range.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force reports on a Russian missile and drone attack overnight. Out of 131 drones launched, 57 were shot down and another 45 were supressed by EW or were lost in location.
A significant amount of drones got through
5 Shahed drone strikes hit Kyivskyi district in Kharkiv, injuring three men and damaging five industrial buildings and 11 apartment blocks.
Overnight, Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked Shaykovka airfield in Russia’s Kaluga region. Damage assessment is ongoing.
Russian losses per 31/03/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff.
+1230 men
+4 tanks
+3 AFVs
+30 artillery
+1 AD
Summary —
Ukraine still struggling with Shahed attacks. More info on just how Russia has improved the attacks is coming out. Apparently, they are abandoning some of the low flying attacks of the past. Ukraine has been very successful by using good ol machine guns to take the relatively slow flying drones out. The Russian shift in tactics have groups of drones loiter at high altitudes, out of range of machine guns, then all at once dive bomb towards their targets. This limits the firing window of current ADA weapons and in mass, overwhelms local defenses. Staging the attacks at high altitudes forces Ukraine to decide whether or not to use limited and expensive missiles to engage them. These systems are normally reserved for more advanced Russian cruise and ballistic missiles. Ukraine’s answer to the new tactic is not known, but may involve use of more fighter air craft and helicopters to hit the groups before they make their plunge to targets. Even at that, Russia will still see successes in hitting targets.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Continued air strikes across Gaza as ground forces continue to maneuver.
- Larger evacuation ordered covering much of S Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office announced that the Israeli Prime Minister has decided to appoint former Israeli Navy Commander (Reserve) Major General Eli Sharvit as head of the Shin Bet, succeeding Ronen Bar, whose dismissal has been met with opposition and protests.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Israeli army distributes leaflets in Rafah: Calling for evacuation to Khan Yunis
Operations in light of the growing Rafah evacuation -
1. Most of the southern city in the Gaza Strip is empty, and for about a week now, fighters from Brigade 14, Givati, and Battalion 9 have been sweeping the Shaboura and Tel Sultan areas for weapons caches, launchers, and tunnels that were not discovered in previous raids.
2. This raid is now expanding into additional neighborhoods in the city, spreading wider and further north.
3. There is almost no friction or combat, as the militants fled to displaced persons camps in al-Mawasi and Khan Younis.
4. This is not yet the major ground operation the IDF is planning to retake the Strip—a plan that hasn’t even been approved yet at the top security-political levels. Rather, these are gradual moves aimed at pressuring Hamas toward a broader hostage deal.
https://x.com/osint613/status/1906613611520270725?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
The Shin Bet and Israeli police captured six Palestinians from Nablus, part of a Hamxs-directed cell operating out of Turkey and planning attacks in Israel. Authorities seized an IED near Jit, an M-16 rifle, and $60,000 in cash.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US military attacks against Houthi targets continued overnight in Sana’a province.
***
Israel’s defense echelon estimates that the Houthi rebel group only has a few dozen ballistic missiles, Channel 12 News reported.
Though the missiles weigh hundreds of kilograms and are between five and ten meters long each, only a few are manufactured each month. In addition, many of the launchers were damaged in the US - and Israeli - strikes.
The report also said that the area from which the Houthis launch their missiles is believed to be very limited, and that most of the missiles they launch are intercepted and fall in other countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
However, it is also estimated that so long as the fighting in Gaza continues, the Houthis will continue launching towards Israel, regardless of their limited supply.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/406169
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Gaza operations are progressing quickly and without much resistance as Israel retakes territory it captured and later pulled out from early on. Israeli movements southward from northern and central Gaza is herding the remnants of Hamas et al into a smaller and smaller area. This apparently will continue until conditions are ripe for Israel to commit two divisions that are standing on the ready to close with and destroy Hamas.
Lebanon is relatively quiet, with Israel poised to strike Hezbollah positions at will and with no resistance.
I take the assessment that the Houthis have few ballistic missiles available at arms length. A lot depends on just how successful the ongoing air campaign has been at locating and destroying stockpiles. Clearly they are not receiving any new rockets from Iran and their capability to construct new ones likely has been seriously reduced by airstrikes.
That said, the Houthi display a definitely impaired ability to shoot more than one or two missiles per day.
Iran - see discussions below.
Iran –
Iran summons Swiss envoy as head of US interest section, relays protest notice over Trump threats
Iran’s Leader (in reaction to the threats by Trump):
“They are threatening us. If they (the US and Israeli regime) commit any malicious action - which is not much likely -, they will undoubtedly receive a strong and reciprocal blow”
“They accuse the brave nations of this region of being proxies. There’s only one proxy force in this region, and that’s the Zionist regime which commits genocide and perpetrates crimes in acting as a proxy for the colonialists.”
Trump on Iran: “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing - and it will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before.” Via NBC
***
Iranian missiles are loaded onto launchers in all underground missile cities and are ready for launch,” the state-run Tehran Times English newspaper reported on Sunday, citing information it received.
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Iran is in a tight spot, so they resort to standard threats as well as publicizing their (remaining) missile strength.
Long range missiles capable of hitting Israel are definitely limited. Shorter ranged missiles capable of covering the Persian Gulf region are likely fairly abundant.
An options on the short term would be to launch a preemptive strike against Israel to try to throw off timeline planning on the US / Israel strike against them. The resulting backlash is that the US has pretty substantial capabilities in the region and may show the patience to finish compiling the assault forces and hit Iran with an incredibly massive strike.
Their only other option would seem to try to weather the US / Israeli hit and respond with missiles to Israel and US based in the Persian Gulf. This is Iran’s hope that enough missile units survive the attack to mount such an assault.
In either case, the aggressive campaign against the Houthis should serve notice that the US isn’t going to fiddle faddle around with it come to them.
With this, two key developments, the identification of a significant number of B52s at Diego and the likely deployment of Patriot systems to Gulf bases make it even more evident, Trump is serious and he’ll back up his words with actions. Potential D-day 5-6 weeks out.
ONE LAST ITEM - I include potential terrorist attacks here in the US by Iranian cells that have infiltrated into the country during biden’s open borders.
Turkey –
Turkish President Erdogan:
In a speech on the occasion of the Muslim holiday Eid al-Fitr:
“We see what is happening in Palestine, may Allah destroy Israel.”
OBSERVATION - Turkey, once a friend of Israel, is continuing to take a more malicious tac in threatening Israel. These growing threats are likely the reason for Israels recent strikes on bases Turkey appears to have its eyes on in repayment for helping HTS overthrow Assad.
Nail them to the wall. Attempted murder charges should be able to be filed and made a good case for.
And the right needs to start carrying whenever possible and not hesitate to use it in self defense. It's only us fighting back decisively that the left will understand. Trying to be nice WILL. NOT. WORK. They just perceive it as weakness.
Have you seen any polls on Tesla owners (many liberal elites in this group) and their feelings on democrat violence toward them and their cars?
I'll bet pollsters - being mostly democrat - are intentionally NOT looking into this issue. Just a hunch. Any thoughts on this?
Thanks
I wish I could have a pithy April Fools post, but things are just too serious now on the global and national fronts.
In all seriousness, all Wisconsin freepers, bring a friend and get out and vote.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The globalist, deep staters have been very aggressive lately trying to shut down populist candidates in numerous countries over the past year. Most recent target is Le Pen of France, framed for a crime. Others include:
Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, Imran Khan in Pakistan, Matteo Salvini in Italy, Donald Trump in America, Călin Georgescu in Romania, and Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel. The deep state around the world is in panic mode and is using its judicial arm to manipulate and persecute the leaders that the people want.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
- “Hands Off 2025” on Saturday April 5th.
***
Representative Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) said Monday on MSNBC’s “The Rachel Maddow Show” that she was training Americans to help take down a potential “dictatorship” of President Donald Trump.
Jayapal said, “Yeah I mean, what we decided is that we really need to help Americans understand what happens when democracies fall when dictators take over. We’ve been pretty complacent in America. We haven’t had to really deal with this in any real way. And now I think people need to understand what are the lessons from other countries and working with experts who have studied democratic backsliding in countries around the world and the resistance movements that emerged to take on that democratic backsliding.”
She added, “We’ve developed a curriculum where we help people understand, how do you go after the pillars of support? Not necessarily the person at the top but the pillars of support that allow that person to continue to have power? And how do you shift allies from being sort of passive opponents to being active supporters of taking down a dictatorship?”
OBSERVATION - Apparently the corruption of schools and universities hasn’t worked well enough for them. Setting up foundation for them to ‘justify’ violence against the Trump administration.
***
The DOGE team fought for days to gain access to the United States Institute of Peace. Eventually, with help from the FBI and Metro Police DOGE was able to access the agency and discovered massive fraud, waste and abuse-including payments to Taliban and Iraq.
They deleted a terabyte of financial data to cover their crimes, but they don’t understand technology, so we recovered it
OBSERVATION - This was one of the strongest resistance of any agency of the US govt to duly authorized DOGE inspectors. Already seeing that millions (billions) were shipped off to terrorist groups.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Mar 18, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.
- Concern for a potential Islamic terror strike on US hospital(s) by the end of the month.
***
RUMINT. Drug cartel operatives are surveilling and compiling lists of key military and civilian personnel to be targeted for assassination if and when Trump goes to war with Iran
OBSERVATION - The were reports that Iranian infiltrators had established a good working relationship with cartels during the biden open border.
Folks, following global developments as I have for many, many years now, I fully expect something to happen stateside when the bombs fall on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Too many elements see Trump and the US as a greater threat and are seeking asymmetrical ways to damage the country.
***
AG Pam Bondi announces charges against Cooper Frederick for allegedly firebombing a Tesla dealership in Loveland, Colorado.
He faces up to 20 years in prison.
OBSERVATION - This is the second arrest of a Tesla dealership terrorist that I’m aware of. Vandalism of individual Teslas continues, but its security systems and good citizens are resulting in quick arrests of the vandals - many facing felony charges.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Unconfirmed. The US is sending the B-1 Lancer strategic bombers to the Middle East.
OBSERVATION - If this is valid, and still checking, this is one of the most significant buildups of US strategic bombers in a region in more than a decade at least.
***
Military transport activity is continuing to with more arrivals today in the Middle East, this includes a C-5M “Super Galaxy” currently crossing Turkey. Over two dozens flights originating from Osan have arrived at Isa Air Base in Bahrain, as well as other U.S. and allied air bases in the region over the last week.
OBSERVATION - Again, suspected deployment of Patriot systems.
***
Reportedly, Navy is sending the Nimitz CSG to replace the Vinson CSG in the western Pacific. It will not apparently be available in part due to Chinese ‘exercise’ around Taiwan.
***
Even as the U.S. Air Force works to retire its fleet of A-10 Thunderbolt IIs, Warthogs are still proving useful in the ongoing fight against ISIS. And now, the U.S. military is sending additional Warthogs to the Middle East. It’s part of the latest build up of U.S. military power, as fighting ramps up against Houthi forces in Yemen.
The 124th Fighter Wing announced it was deploying more than 300 airmen and “multiple” A-10s to the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The troops and aircraft, flown by members of the 190th Fighter Squadron, left Idaho on Saturday, March 29. The exact number of A-10s was not disclosed, beyond “several” being deployed. The Idaho State Journal reports that the troops are on a 180-day deployment.
https://taskandpurpose.com/news/a10-warthogs-middle-east-houthis/
OBSERVATION - Not only Houthi action, but potential action against Iran. Houthis are just a good cover story.
POLITICAL FRONT –
More mixed bags of judicial decisions for/against Trump’s agenda.
One note in particular - all the democrats refused to support a resolution condemning the terroristic violence against Tesla dealerships and owners.
Cyber attacks/warfare –HIGH ALERT as of Mar 31, 2025
- Threat status elevated due to potential US / Israeli strike on Iran and Iran using cyber attacks in response.
Illegal Immigration –
According to the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) head, the number of illegal immigrants with social security numbers surged more than sevenfold from 270,000 in 2021 to a whopping 2.1 million in 2024. In total, more than 5 million illegal aliens collect benefits funded by hardworking American taxpayers, with some finding their way into the voter register.
“This is a mind-blowing chart,” Musk explained with data. “This wasn’t an accident. This was a massive, large-scale program under the Biden administration to import as many illegals as possible—ultimately to change the voting map of the United States, disenfranchise the American people, and lock in a permanent deep-blue, one-party state from which there’d be no escape.”
OBSERVATION - As this develops, we see another key area why the left has been screaming so loud about DOGE. This is corruption on a massive scale.
China –
Spokesperson for the East China Sea Branch of the Chinese Coast Guard has announced the CCG is conducting “law enforcement patrols” surrounding Taiwan including “pre-inspection, arrest, interception and seizure, and other subject exercises.”
Taiwan detects 19 Chinese warships, Shandong aircraft carrier group around island - AFP
OBSERVATION - This is serious stuff, probably the most serious to date. To intercept ships headed to Taiwan can develop quickly into a blockade. China may be trying to seize an advantage with the Vinson CSG moving to the middle east and the Nimitz CSG still many days from station, while the Reagan sits in port in Japan. Chinese propaganda has been directing ridicule towards Trump as part of this “exercise”.
***
China has held up the $23 billion sale of dozens of ports worldwide — including two key ports in the Panama Canal — to a group led by US investing giant BlackRock after President Trump expressed concern about Beijing’s sway over the strategic shipping lanes.
On March 4, CK Hutchison, a Hong Kong-based conglomerate controlled by 96-year-old billionaire Li Ka-shing, announced plans to sell 43 port facilities globally — including critical ports at both ends of the Panama Canal and near the Suez Canal — for approximately $22.8 billion.
But China’s State Administration for Market Regulation unexpectedly initiated an investigation on Friday into potential violations of Chinese anti-monopoly laws, effectively stalling the deal.
https://nypost.com/2025/03/31/business/china-blocks-23b-sale-of-panama-canal-ports-to-blackrock/
Russia -
*****
At a meeting with Wang Yi, Lavrov stated that the leaders of Russia and China are committed to consistently strengthening the “Russian-Chinese connection.”
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree ordering the conscription of 160,000 men into the Russian army, a move that has raised eyebrows globally as it coincides with ongoing peace negotiations related to the Ukraine conflict.
According to reports from The Telegraph, this spring draft, set to be completed by July 15, marks an increase from previous years—up from 150,000 in 2024, 147,000 in 2023, and 134,500 in 2022.
OBSERVATION - This is the annual conscription. An increase of 10K is not incurably large, but does reflect evidence that the war continues to be a drag. For reference, Russia has been suffering at least 30K casualties (dead and severely wounded) every month. So the increase of 10K doesn’t even cover a months worth of losses.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Rainy conditions with temperatures in the 30s - 50s range.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched two Kh-59/69 cruise missiles. Both were shot down near Zaporizhzia.
No reports of Shahed attacks overnight.
Russian losses per 01/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1540 men
+9 tanks
+37 AFVs
+15 artillery
+46 UAVs
In the Lyman direction, Russian forces advanced northwest of Terny on the other western side of the Zherebets river towards Nove and Katerynivka. Heavy fighting is ongoing. It is also noticed that Russians started using mechanized attacks again.
Summary —
Quiet night for Shaheds?
Ground fighting ebbs and flows with intensity. The use of mechanized forces at Terny, versus the hodge podge of transports at other places of the front, suggests a stronger attempt at breaking thru the defenses at this locations. Overall levels of fighting do not infer that Russia is trying to preserve forces for a potential offensive later this spring. Watching to see if these are more economy of force attacks to try to keep Ukrainian forces pinned in place.
Russians continued to break their promise of not attacking power facilities, hitting numerous ones with glide bombs over the past several days.
Ceasefire talks are basically dead in the water, as Russia refuses to make any concessions and essentially demands Ukraine surrender before any actions are taken.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu withdrawas from his intention to appoint Eli Sharvit as head of the Shin Bet.
- IAF takes out Hezbollah official Hassan Badir
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli National Security Headquarters warns: Hamas is expected to increase its attempts to carry out attacks against Jews and Israelis abroad - following the renewal of fighting in Gaza and the difficult situation in the Strip. Hamas terror infrastructures that planned to hit Israeli targets have already been exposed in Denmark, Germany, Bulgaria and Sweden.
***
Netanyahu withdrawas from his intention to appoint Eli Sharvit as head of the Shin Bet.
Reportedly due to the uncovering of anti-Trump statements
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Following the rocket fire from the northern Gaza Strip on Sderot this morning, the Israeli army issues an evacuation warning for Palestinians in the Beit Hanoun area. In a post on X, the Israeli army’s Arabic-language spokesman, Colonel Avichay Adraee, publishes a map of the area
The rocket was taken out by Iron Dome.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A senior Hezbollah official told Al-Manar that the organization decided not to respond with an attack from Lebanese territory following the Israeli attack on Beirut.
According to him, Naim Qassem chose an operation from Iraqi territory, which is expected to take place in the coming days.
***
The Israeli Air Force has just carried out an unusual precision-airstrike on a high-rise apartment building in the Dahieh suburb of southern Beirut, without an evacuation warning, resulting in the total collapse of the building. According to a joint statement moments ago from the Israel Defense Force and Shin Bet, Senior Hezbollah official Hassan Badir and his son Ali were eliminated last night in an Israeli targeted strike in Dahiyeh, Beirut. He belonged to Hezbollah’s Unit 3900 and the Iranian Quds Force.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
US Air Campaign Against the Houthi: US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted at least 62 airstrikes targeting Houthi infrastructure and leadership in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen
Houthis claim to have shot down yet another American MQ-9 Reaper UAV. This would be the 16th Reaper downed by the Houthis.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Gaza, battlefield preparations for the introduction of IDF divisions continues. Units already in Gaza continue to herd Hamas into smaller areas that haven’t been hit in the past (due to biden restrictions). Hamas brutality has silenced protests.
Israel continues to strike key terror leadership, with the hit in the Dahieh suburb of southern Beirut. Expect to hear a lot of complaints since there reportedly was no ‘warning’ given. This is a Hezbollah sector of Beirut.
Houthi continued to be bombed, and with the exception of the potential loss of a US recon drone, they are becoming quieter and quieter.
Iran’s threats of retaliation for any US / Israeli strike have been made towards Israel. More below.
Iran –
Collapse from Within: A Disintegrating Economy, Citizens in Crisis
The Iranian rial, the local currency, is plummeting uncontrollably. As of now, it trades at around 1,039,000 rials to the dollar—a drop of more than 30% in just the past three months. The implication is stark: to purchase basic goods, Iranian citizens must carry bags full of cash. This is a failing economy by every measure.
Official inflation is reported at 30–40%, though unofficial estimates suggest it is even higher. Under such conditions, an economy cannot function—it simply collapses.
Infrastructure Collapse and the Threat of Nationwide Multi-Front Chaos
Iran is grappling with:
- A severe water crisis: Approximately 35 million residents face water shortages due to mismanagement and severe drought.
- Power shortages: Planned blackouts and crumbling infrastructure persist, despite Iran sitting atop vast gas reserves.
- A weakened regular army: The proxy project has drained Iran’s economic resources, leaving little to invest in its air force, logistics, or manpower.
OBSERVATION - This is bearing strongly on the mullah’s, as the chance of an uprising rises as these areas continue to buckle. Any significant damage from the expected US / Israeli air strikes may be the final straw.
***
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is claiming to have attacked and seized two oil tankers today in the Persian Gulf, which they claim were part of a “fuel smuggling network” in the Gulf. The two tankers, identified as STAR l and VINTAGE, were captured during a naval operation by the IRGC earlier today, with 25 crew members being arrested while the tankers are transferred to an oil port in the city of Bushehr, where their fuel will be offloaded and seized by Iran. One of the tankers is believed to be owned and operated by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), while the other is currently unknown.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1906756078592794922?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
IRGC Deputy Commander Ali Fadavi warns: Iran will strike back hard if provoked. “We control the Strait of Hormuz—40% of global oil passes through it. The U.S. is highly vulnerable at sea.”
OBSERVATION - Iran is tipping their hand in an effort to generate efforts of gulf states to call on the US to call off potential military strikes. A Straits of Hormuz response to any attacks on Iranian nuclear program is a very likely scenario. I doubt Iran would limit it - and would likely target ships of Gulf nations supporting the US.
The seizures arent about smuggling. This is about Iran flexing its power and threatening global shipping to push its agenda.
***
Ali Larijani, advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader, warned: Any U.S. misstep on our nuclear program could push us—under public pressure—to build a nuclear weapon.
***
According to a senior Iranian official who spoke recently with The Telegraph, top military commanders in Iran’s Armed Forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are being urged to prepare a “preemptive strike” using long-range ballistic missiles against the U.S-U.K. joint base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, in an attempt to deter U.S. President Donald J. Trump from ordering major strikes against Iran.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1906852183246504172?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg
OBSERVATION - One statement was that even if they don’t reach the island they will have sent a threatening message to Trump. Reality is they would have signed their death sentence.
Reality is that the only way the could directly hit Diego Garcia is if their “battle ship” sails out into the Indian Ocean and tries to get within range.
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Add another stack to the US force preparations. Monitoring for confirmation of B1 deployments to the region. These additional bombers, along with the substantial force currently at Diego Garcia, could place Iran under nearly constant heavy bombing / cruise missile attacks. Now add the increase in A10s and wee doggies things have the potential to become really spicy.
Iran is voicing threats of responses to any attack.
1 Missile attack on Israel
2 Missile attacks on US forces in the region
3 Closure of the Straits of Hormuz
4 Unspecified heavy other strikes against the US - potential terror and cyber.
5 Preemptive strike against Diego Garcia
Iran has the capability for items 1 - 4 above. 5 is out of their reach except to waste missiles to hit in the Indian Ocean. When the bombs drop, I expect Iran to do all four or a combination there of. This would become an existential fight by the ruling Mullahs.
Response 1 will likely play out as the second Iranian attack in October did. Some missiles will get through but will have little effect overall. Israel has had these month to sharpen their defenses and have been reinforced by US THAAD systems.
Response 2 has potential to cause US casualties as there are approximately 50,000 (?) servicemen in Gulf region bases and the supply of Patriot batteries is limited. Barring a preemptive strike, I would expect US assets to be in the air or at sea when the bombs fall. And non-essential personnel out of harms way.
Response 3 is the standard go-to for Iran. It can make navigation thru the straits virtually impossible for a time. This is where we need a good amphibious force - possibly supplied by the Iwo Jima task force. Iranian naval assets will have a very short life span, so the bulk of the blockade will be from shore based positions (missiles, artillery, etc).
Response 4 is more difficult to play out, as it is asymmetric and can hit almost anywhere in the US or foreign interests. Potentially very lethal towards soft targets - like the hospital scenario I’ve noted several times now.
Response 5 is an exercise in futility IMHO, but let them waste missiles hitting the Indian ocean.
I’ve said Iran is a target rich environment. Besides the nuclear facilities, Iran’s oil production and shipping are wide open. Kharg Island handles nearly all oil shipments and is very poorly defended. Would likely be hit if Iran targets oil facilities of opposing gulf nations.
When the order is given to hit Iran, the region will erupt into very serious combat actions. The threat on the Straits of Hormuz alone warrant the third aircraft carrier CSG. Chinese exercises look to hold up the Nimitz CSG, so the additional carrier requirements will fall on the Bush or Ford CSGs, currently off the east coast (officially) executing war games.
Iraq -
The Iraqi Prime Minister affirms to the Syrian President Baghdad’s rejection of the Israeli incursion into Syria and its support for its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Venezuela -
The Chavista regime of Nicolás Maduro is playing with fire and knows it! US Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a stern warning yesterday from Guyana: any aggression against this country or ExxonMobil’s operations in the Essequibo will have “serious consequences” for Caracas.
In a press conference alongside Guyanese President Irfaan Ali, Rubio didn’t mince words: “It would be a very bad day for the Venezuelan regime, a very bad week, and it wouldn’t end well.”
Maduro, the tyrant who has plunged Venezuela into misery, has been escalating tensions with Guyana over the Essequibo for weeks, a resource-rich region he claims with arguments as flimsy as his economy.
Earlier this month, a Venezuelan military vessel dangerously approached an ExxonMobil platform in Guyanese waters, an act Washington called “unacceptable” and a “clear violation” of internationally recognized territory.
Rubio, backed by the might of the US Navy, reminded everyone that “we can reach any part of the world” if Chavismo crosses the line.
https://gatewayhispanic.com/2025/03/rubio-warns-maduro-any-aggression-against-guyana-or-exxonmobil/
OBSERVATION - OK, who had bombing Venezuela on their bingo card for April? Its been better than a year since we last heard any rumble about Venezuela seizing oil rich portions of Guyana.