Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

Globalism / Great Reset –

Pope’s condition is stable but critical, facing kidney failure.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025

Protesters at Washington Square Park, NYC, chant “Intifada! Intifada!” during a vigil for Hassan Nasrallah, the eliminated Hezbollah secretary-general.
“Intifada” means the uprising against Jews using methods of suicide bombings and the alike.

OBSERVATION - Tip of iceberg for potential islamic based terror in the US. I expect to see these also at other protests, primarily pro-hamas ones.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.

The nation’s deficit hit a non-COVID record high in Pres. Joe Biden’s last fiscal year (FY) and rose in his last full quarter, U.S. Congressional Budget Office (CBO) data show.

In FY24 (Oct. 2023-Sept. 2024), the federal budget deficit increased $138 billion to $1.833 trillion (up 8%) from FY23, hitting the highest level for any non-COVID year in the nation’s history and the third-highest mark ever.

In the first quarter of FY25, the deficit rose another $200 billion, compared to the same period a year earlier. That change in the deficit was influenced by the timing of outlays and revenues, which decreased the deficit during the first three months of fiscal year 2024 but increased it during the same period this fiscal year. Otherwise, the deficit would have been $125 billion higher than the shortfall in the first quarter of FY24.

The FY24 deficit rose even though total federal government revenues rose 11% from FY23 – to a fiscal year record high $4.919 trillion. While total federal government receipts increased by $479 billion in FY24, net outlays spiked $617 billion.

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/us-deficit-hit-record-high-bidens-last-fiscal-year-rose-last-quarter

OBSERVATION - As many have said, it isn’t a revenue problem - its a spending problem.

***
Debate now growing over how the bird flu epidemic is being handled (mass culling of flocks) combined with VERY questionable vaccines - including mRNA varieties. With egg prices as an indicator, this is a remnant of the biden/globalist effort to attack our food supply. Eggs and chicken meat are used across a substantial portion of the food supply chain. Making eggs more expensive makes bread more expensive, for instance. Once the only affordable meat protein, chicken is now priced outside most ability to buy.

Trump’s FDA and USDA have to jump in on this effort sooner rather than later.

https://expose-news.com/2025/02/23/culling-poultry-in-response-to-bird-flu-is-a-failed-strategy/

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth terminates Senior Military Advisor, Air Force Lt. Gen. Jennifer M. Short - NBC

POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.

Dan Bongino has been nominated deputy director of the FBI.

OBSERVATION - With the filling out of the majority of the cabinet, I expect Trump to start pivoting within each of the alphabet agencies and letting their appointees start diving deeper to cut out waste, fraud and criminal actions. With this, DOGE may start taking a lower profile, being successful at breaching the Swamp to allow the follow on investigations by the Cabinet appointees to move forward. Kinda like a military operation. If this pans out as I see, this will double or triple the assaults on the swamp and continue to push the democrats into more radical, shrieking positions against reform.

It will take a little time for these new cabinet leaders to finish consolidating their control over the various agencies before striking out in force. Patience time.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump poised for cabinet completion in record time.

Illegal Immigration –

(Daily Signal)—Human migration through the Darien Gap connecting Panama and Colombia has fallen by more than 90% when compared with the same time last year, according to Todd Bensman, senior national security fellow at the Center for Immigration Studies.

“The numbers are fractional compared to where they were,” he said, adding that he asked a senior Panamanian official why there has been such a decrease in migration through the Darien Gap and received a one-word reply, “Trump.”

The Darien Gap is a 60-mile dense rain forest that connects Panama and Colombia. No roads run through the gap, meaning that migrants traveling north from South America have to cross the treacherous terrain on foot. Migrants who enter the gap and attempt to cross often do so without proper supplies or enough food and water.

https://thelibertydaily.com/darien-gap-border-invasion-slows-torrent-trickle-under/

OBSERVATION - The Darien Gap also devolved into a hive of NGOs (sucking off US funds) assisting illegals in reaching the border, sneaking into the US and getting coverage by some other NGO once in country. USAID was in play here.

China –

Commercial airliners flying over the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand were forced to reroute their flights on Friday morning Australian time because of a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) action group warning that it would conduct live-fire drills.

Australia had earlier announced on Feb. 13 that it was monitoring the PLAN task group, comprised of cruiser CNS Zunyi (107), frigate CNS Hengyang (568) and fleet oiler CNS Weishanhu (887) while the PLAN ships were operating north of Australia. The task group has since sailed into the Tasman Sea, which lies between Australia and New Zealand.

On Friday, Australian media channel ABC News reported Emirates flight UAE3HJ from Sydney to Christchurch was directly warned at 11 a.m Sydney time by the PLAN task group to avoid airspace this morning.

Australia’s ABC News also reported commercial pilots have been warned to avoid airspace between Australia and New Zealand because of the drills and that warnings remain in place. Airlines flying over the area are diverting flights.

https://news.usni.org/2025/02/21/commercial-flights-rerouted-after-chinese-navy-announces-last-minute-live-fire-drills-near-australia

OBSERVATION - I’ve noted numerous time in the past, the first rounds fired between China and another nation in the Pacific will not be in the Taiwan Strait, but in other areas that China is claiming is “theirs”.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - Third anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russia is ready to negotiate with both Ukraine and Europe, but military actions will only cease if the outcome is acceptable to Russia, said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying from single digits to the low 30s range, partly to mostly cloudy.

***
World leaders are arriving in Kyiv for the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President António Costa, and leaders from Spain, Canada, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have arrived. 13 leaders are in Kyiv, with 24 more joining online to discuss peace and security guarantees.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 185 Shahed drones. A total of 113 were shot down and another 71 suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 24/02/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff.

+1050 men
+9 tanks
+6 AFVs
+44 artillery systems
+3 MLRS
+110 service vehicles

Ukraine’s General Staff has confirmed the attack on the Ryazan oil refinery overnight. Reports indicate that at least five explosions occurred near the target, resulting in a fire at the ELOU AT-6 crude oil processing unit. Additionally, Ukrainian forces carried out a strike on an oil depot in Tula, Russia, where a fire was confirmed near the “8 Marta” plant.

Summary —

Drone wars continue, with Ukraine getting some good hit in.

Russian losses reflect much lower action along the front. Things are becoming static and Russia is losing much of the initiative.

The whole US-Russia negotiations has me at a bit of unease. I don’t agree with the ‘its Ukraine’s fault’ coming from the WH. It only reinforces Lavrov’s pronouncements and Russia’s bargaining position.

OTOH, if it is Trump’s goal to kick Europe in the rear to get their act together on defense, it seems to be working as major nations (France, Germany, Britain) are scrambling to make up for the loss of direct US support.

On this third anniversary of the Russia invasion, I’m sure there are a lot of hidden cards to be played and I don’t think Russia is going to get off scott free.

Europe / NATO General –

The conservative Christian Democrat Union (SDU) political party won the national elections with 29.0 percent of the vote.
The Populist-Pro-Germany AfD roared into second place with 19.5 percent of the vote.
It is likely that the CDU will join with the failed Social Democrats (SPD) to form a government. The SPD is currently in power and is destroying the country.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/02/breaking-germanys-cdu-wins-elections-populist-conservative-afd/

***
Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting didn’t wait for the final results of his country’s election on Sunday to herald a new era in Europe.
Declaring the US indifferent to this continent’s fate, Friedrich Merz questioned the future of Nato and demanded Europe boost its own defences. Quickly.
This tone from the close US ally - and from Friedrich Merz who is known to be a passionate Atlanticist - would have been unimaginable even a couple of months ago.
It’s a seismic shift. That may read like hyperbole, but what we are now experiencing in terms of transatlantic relations is unprecedented in the 80 years since the end of World War Two.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpv4n0dg3v3o

OBSERVATIONS - How much will these results move the needle to the right is yet to be seen.

***
According to Russian media, the EU has disconnected 13 Russian banks from SWIFT in the latest sanctions package and banned 8 Russian media outlets from broadcasting in Europe. New restrictions have also been imposed on supplying Russia with software, equipment, and technology for oil & gas extraction.

OBSERVATIONS - Some suspect that this freezes out 30% of the banking - a huge impact to Russia and its economy.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas complaining over Israel’s refusal to turn over terrorist prisoners.

- Phase 2 negotiations are at an impasse

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The White House on Sunday expressed support for Israel’s decision to delay the release of more than 600 terrorist prisoners.

“Given Hamas’ barbaric treatment of the hostages, including the hideous parade of the Bibas children’s coffins through the streets of Gaza, Israel’s decision to delay the release of prisoners is an appropriate response,” White House National Security Council spokesman Brian Hughes said in a statement.

Hughes added that President Trump is “prepared to support Israel in whatever course of action it chooses regarding Hamas.”

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/404397

***
Hamas has announced that they will not continue negotiations with Israel for Phase 2 of the ceasefire, until the 600+ Palestinian prisoners meant to be released on Saturday are released from Israeli prisons.

Hamas spokesman says the terrorist organization is prepared to accept everything related to ceremony of hostages

The Israeli PM stopped the release of the 600 Palestinian terrorists prisoners because the ceremonies Hamas does when they are released. Hamas says they will stop these ceremonies.

***
Israel’s security officials suggest restricting access to the Temple Mount during Ramadan. Ramadan runs March 1-31 (ends Eid Al-Fitr)

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The IDF Home Front Command has removed all restrictions on Israel’s northern border communities, set during Hezbollah clashes, with approval from Defense Minister Israel Katz after a review with IDF Chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi. Northern activity shifts from “partial” to “full,” with displaced residents returning home March 2

IAF buzzed Nazeralla’s funeral service yesterday.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz: “The Israeli army established two posts on Mount Hermon and seven others in the buffer zone with Syria. The Israeli army will remain indefinitely on Mount Hermon and in the buffer zone.”

***
“We demand full demilitarization of southern Syria from the forces of the new regime. Also, we will not tolerate any threat to the Druze community in southern Syria,” Netanyahu said during a speech at the graduation ceremony for new IDF combat officers.

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-64/

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli security forces continued a series of raids throughout Samaria and Judea.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Turkish Foreign Minister: We are concerned about Netanyahu’s attempt to return to war in Gaza and we call on him to stop his operations in the West Bank

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Efforts to extend Phase 1 releases and move onto Phase 2 are becoming quite rocky. Israel’s withholding terrorists from being released until Hamas stops the denigrating release ceremonies is one of the push backs. Israel is demanding the complete removal of Hamas from Gaza, while Hamas is demanding the same of Israel. Hamas’ more conciliatory responses to the hostage exchange may indicate they realize the peril of poking the bear, but have poked it one to many times and it is poised to strike.

In this case, Trump and his cabinet seem willing to let Israel go at them with a free hand, unlike the biden regime. Time is ticking on when things reach a final stalemate in negotiations and Israel begins negotiation at the end of a 2000 lb bunker buster.

Things appear to be stable enough in S Lebanon for Israel to allow residents to return to border area communities. This is good news, but involves a degree of risk as well. There is no evidence that Hezbollah has been pushed north of the Litani River, though much of its developed border crossing assault infrastructure (an Oct 7 attack on steroids) has been removed. Israel also continues to strike potential rocket/missile sites as they are identified, reducing that threat.

On thing from Nazerralah’s funeral - I wish the IAF would have done low level SUPERSONIC fly bye - letting the sonic booms rattle the attendees.

In S Syria, Israel appears to be drawing a line to protect the Druze community from the islamists in the new Syrian govt. This area was brutally demolished by Assad during the civil war, and is now religiously under threat by the Syrian militias. The Druze leaders in these communities had appealed to Israel to incorporate their areas into Israel territory.

I don’t see this as an immediate problem, but once the Syrian govt has things tied down, they could refocus on Israel. Israel has a good reputation with the Druze in the Golan areas as well as in Lebanon. That is reflected in these Syrian based communities favor.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

Progressive groups are astroturfing ‘republican’ protests against DOGE at Republican town hall events, putting forth a false narrative of opposition, where as in reality, support is extremely high (see Trump Watch below). This effort has cowed some representatives into softening their public support for actions like DOGE.

POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) called for House Democrats to have “maximum attendance” in the House this week to disrupt Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) vote on the House budget reconciliation bill this week. The effort is to try to disrupt and delay the bill - pushing the US towards a shutdown after March 15th.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

President Donald Trump said 25% tariffs against Canadian and Mexican imports scheduled to take effect on 4 March are “going forward on time, on schedule.” A U.S. official speaking anonymously said the 4 March tariffs against Canada and Mexico are still to be determined, but reciprocal tariffs against all U.S. trade partners will move forward in April.

TRUMP Watch –

One month in, a majority of those polled have a positive view of the Trump administration.
A Harvard University/Harris poll had President Donald Trump’s approval rating at 52%, with voters most satisfied with his job on immigration, reducing the cost of the government, and returning America to its values.
A majority of those polled support Trump’s policies on the border, focus on government expenditures, gender, DEI, and offshore drilling but have concerns on his foreign policy involving tariffs, the
Israel-Hamas war, and the war in Ukraine.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/donaldtrump-poll-jdvance/2025/02/24/id/1200245/

OBSERVATION - Another left leaning poll and democrat heads must be exploding. Yet democrats are double and tripling down on actions/policies towards the opposite that have been shown to be one of the reasons Trump won with such a margin in November.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024

(FO) Former Cyber Command and NSA Director Gen. Paul Nakasone said the U.S. is falling increasingly behind foreign adversaries in cyberspace because the U.S. is unable to secure its networks, and unable to leverage cybersecurity software available today.

Nakasone said future cyber threats will become more dangerous, and the U.S. is seeing “the beginnings of the bleed from the non-kinetic to the kinetic for cyber operations.”

OBSERVATION - Forward Observer notes that the shift from “non-kinetic to the kinetic” indicates cyberattacks “could occur above the threshold for armed conflict, and the difficulty of attribution increases the risk that a kinetic cyberattack could be misattributed. “

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

(ISW) Russia dedicated staggering amounts of manpower and equipment to several major offensive efforts in Ukraine in 2024, intending to degrade Ukrainian defenses and seize the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.

Russia has achieved relatively faster gains in 2024 than throughout most of the war after the initial invasion and developed a blueprint for conducting slow, tactical envelopments to achieve these advances.

Still, Russian forces have failed to restore the operational maneuver necessary to achieve operationally significant gains rapidly.

Russia has thus paid an exorbitant price in manpower and equipment losses that Russia cannot sustain in the medium term for very limited gains.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1894052412962336840?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***
Kremlin officials formally rejected the possibility of a ceasefire on any terms other than the complete capitulation of Ukraine and the West on February 24, further underscoring Russia’s unwillingness to make compromises during future peace negotiations.

Russian officials also continue to frame Russia’s demand for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from territory that Ukrainian forces currently control in eastern and southern Ukraine as a “compromise.”

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying from single digits to the low 30s range, partly to mostly cloudy.

Without U.S. military aid, Ukraine has enough weapons to fight at its current pace until summer — WSJ writes. European partners aim to fill the gap, while Ukraine currently supplies itself with about 55% of its needed weaponry.

The US will continue supplying weapons to Ukraine until 2026 thanks to a decision by Biden, per The Wall Street Journal.

Before leaving the White House, Biden signed contracts with defense industry for ammunition purchases for Ukraine. Major supplies ordered by his administration will last until the end of next year.

NOTE - Mixed notes from WSJ - suggesting Ukraine does/does not have supplies thru the end of the year.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force intercepted 6 out of 7 Kh-101 cruise missiles & 133 out of 213 Russian UAVs. 79 drones were lost without causing damage (probable EW diversion/actions) . The attack targeted several regions including Kyiv & Zhytomyr. The response involved aviation, air defense, and electronic warfare units.
Russian Tu-95MS bombers launched the Kh-101s

Russian losses per 25/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

+1300 men
+5 tanks
+11 AFVs
+26 artillery pieces
+2 AD systems
+138 service vehicles

Summary —

Cease fire talks continue to evolve. Russian is clearly maintaining a very hard line stance while Ukraine tries to shore up support from Europe.

Ground action continues at lower levels, but still Russia is facing losses back to 30K per month. Since the start of the war Russia is nearing the 900K level.

Still massive Shahed attacks, but are mostly ineffective.

Europe / NATO General –

Meeting between Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron. Emmanuel Macron on the war in Ukraine: “Within the framework of security guarantees, we have our role to play.”

Donald Trump does not oppose sending European troops for peacekeeping missions in Ukraine

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- CENTCOM Chief visits Netanyahu.

- Hostage release negotiation to extend Phase 1 and permit Phase 2 talks.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The Commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), General Michael E. Kurilla has arrived in Israel on an “unannounced visit” after traveling to Jordan and Qatar; with tomorrow‘s court appearance by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu having been canceled, reportedly due to reasons surrounding Iran

***
In an attempt to extend the first phase of the hostage and ceasefire deal before beginning negotiations on the second phase, Israel wishes to extend the current deal by an additional 42 days, without discussing the end of the war, Kan News reported on Tuesday.

An Israeli source stated that during the extension period, negotiations will be held on the second phase and the end of the war.

He noted that Israel wants the release of hostages to continue in waves during the extension. However, sources with knowledge of the matter cast doubt on the chances that this would happen without substantial compensation for Hamas.

At the same time, the mediators are in discussions with Israel and Hamas in an attempt to solve the current crisis as Israel is delaying the release of over 600 terrorists from its prisons. Israel insists that it will not release them until Hamas promises not to hold “ceremonies” when releasing the deceased hostages who are scheduled to be returned on Thursday.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/404467

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Hamas and Islamic Jihad anticipate that the ongoing hostage deal will soon collapse due to Israel’s stance and the support of the Trump administration. In response, they are coordinating with Iran to prepare for renewed fighting.

According to intelligence assessments in Israel, Hamas is actively using the current ceasefire to restore its military capabilities and replenish its ranks with new recruits in preparation for a return to combat in the Gaza Strip.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah has halted compensation payments to many supporters due to a severe financial shortfall. War damages are estimated at $3.4 billion.

Hezbollah has issued internal directives for its operatives who do not live south of the Litani River to vacate the area to allow the Lebanese Armed Forces to assume control over the border region as demanded by the ceasefire with Israel, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing a source close to Hezbollah.

Some Hezbollah units have been totally dismantled after the Israeli campaign in Lebanon, says the source, but others were reconstituted by bringing fighters back from Syria following the fall of deposed president Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

The report cites another source who indicates that the Iran-backed terrorist group has lost some 5,000 operatives fighting against Israel since October 7, 2023.

Israeli troops completed their withdrawal from southern Lebanese villages on February 18, but remained deployed in five strategic positions.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/report-hezbollah-tells-operatives-to-allow-lebanese-army-to-take-control-of-border-area/

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli Foreign Minister: New Government in Syria is a Jihadist Terrorist Group from Idlib That Took Over Damascus by Force

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Security forces continue raids across the region to seize terrorists and arms caches

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Negotiations continue on additional releases under Phase 1 and Phase 2 talks. Following the grotesque displays at recent hostage surrenders, they have lost a lot of PR support and the hostage leverage against Israel significantly diminished.

Rumors from above that Hamas and Hezbollah are ceding defeat but are phrasing it in a way that covers up the realities of their losses.

Israel, OTOH is ready to come crashing into Gaza and into areas that were forbidden by biden.

The CENTCOM visit is reinforcing Iranian worries of an impending strike on their nuclear facilities and other sensitive sites. This overarching concern is probably driving its threats to launch another missile attack as well as touting its military (IRGC) strength in the region in an effort to deter Israel. With full US support, it is a matter of timing for Israel to finish getting all the pieces together and map out a multi-strike, multi-day campaign against the nuclear sites.

Iran –

On Monday, the United States State Department issued a number of sanctions on Iran’s oil trade and “entities that have traded in Iran’s petroleum.”

State department spokesperson Tammy Bruce issued the following statement:
The U.S. Department of State is today designating 16 entities and vessels for their involvement in Iran’s petroleum and petrochemical industry.
The Department of State and the Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) are concurrently sanctioning a combined total of 22 persons and identifying 13 vessels as blocked property, across multiple jurisdictions, for their involvement in Iran’s oil industry.
This network of illicit shipping facilitators obfuscates and deceives its role in loading and transporting Iranian oil for sale to buyers in Asia. It has shipped tens of millions of barrels of crude oil worth hundreds of millions of dollars. Today’s action represents an initial step to realize President Trump’s campaign of maximum pressure on the Iranian regime. It disrupts efforts by Iran to amass oil revenues to fund terrorists’ activities.
We will continue to disrupt such illicit funding streams for Iran’s malign activities. As long as Iran devotes its energy revenues to financing attacks on our allies, supporting terrorism around the world, or pursuing other destabilizing actions, we will use all the tools at our disposal to hold the regime accountable.

https://pjmedia.com/sarah-anderson/2025/02/24/state-department-reimposes-maximum-pressure-sanctions-on-iran-n4937293

OBSERVATION - Maximum Pressure is on.

***
Telegraph: Iran fears an imminent attack on its nuclear sites, boosting defenses and placing forces on high alert. Officials expect strikes nightly, even on secret facilities. Tehran warns a U.S.-Israel attack could threaten the regime’s survival.

Globalism / Great Reset –

CARDIFF/LONDON (Worthy News) – Wales is the first part of Britain to roll out a facial recognition system that critics claim will turn Brits into “walking barcodes” and “a nation of suspects.”

The technology, powered by artificial intelligence (AI), captures the faces of every person passing through an area covered in real time. It then compares them to a database of those described in reports as “wanted criminals.”

Additionally, police use an application, or ‘app’ in short, on their smartphones to confirm someone’s identity.

Officials say the app, Operator Initiated Facial Recognition (OIFR), has already been tested by 70 officers across South Wales and will be used by South Wales Police and Gwent Police.

Police claim photos taken using the app will “not be retained.”

https://www.worthynews.com/102537-wales-introduces-britains-ai-powered-orwellian-facial-recognition-system-worthy-news-focus

OBSERVATION - Facial recognition software has been around for a long time and has improved substantially. There have been many systems in use to enhance the algorithms. Ever play with the Messenger App video calls and the applications of backgrounds and masks - requiring facial recognitions? For a future tyrant, systems like this will permit a very extensive surveillance state. Already tried in England was the license plate scanners - the ones that the locals have repeatedly torn down. The British sheeple have been so mislead, they are embracing the technology that will enslave them - and eventually the world.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

CNN is reporting an insider threat at CIA

. . . . . staff risk creating a group of disgruntled former employees who might be motivated to take what they know to a foreign intelligence service.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/24/politics/cia-security-risks-trump/index.html

RELATED - FBI whistleblower @GOBactual confirmed to me that a source inside FBI said FBI employees were destroying evidence on servers,

OBSERVATION - This is a CW2 risk in that these actions could / would support hostile actions against the US from external AND internal elements. Govt employees revolting against the duly elected President and govt.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The U.S. Air Force B-52H bombers which took off yesterday from Barksdale Air Force Base in Louisiana, and have arrived in Europe enroute to the Middle East.

POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.

2025 budget was approved in the United States House of Representatives.
House lawmakers voted 217-215 for a budget resolution addressing spending in key areas such as national security and border security in addition to calling for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and raising the debt limit by $4 trillion. It also sets the goal of reducing mandatory federal spending by $2 trillion over time.
Every Democrat in the house just voted against No tax on tips and No tax on overtime.

Highlights:
⁃No tax on tips
⁃No tax on overtime
⁃Tax relief for seniors
⁃America first tax break for products manufactured in the USA
⁃Balance budget resolution meaning at a minimum its a deficit neutral

Moves to the Senate.

***
The FBI under the direction of Director Kash Patel is investigating an off-the-books operation launched by former FBI Director James Comey to deploy female undercover “honeypot” agents to infiltrate Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign.

A bureau whistleblower in October disclosed to the House Judiciary Committee that Comey “personally directed” the honeypot operation, designated as part of a “criminal investigation,” against the Trump campaign in 2015, The Washington Times reported.

A honeypot usually refers to an undercover operative — usually a woman — who feigns sexual or romantic interest to extract information from a target.

OBSERVATION - Karma’s coming quick.

***
Reports that the ICE leakers have been identified and will be dealt with as soon as today.

Also, at least 100 individuals with outrageously high levels of clearances in NSA, CIA and DIA have been identified as participants on the sexual fetish chat room identified by whistle blower. They are scheduled to be fired and their clearances revoked.

***
“Malicious compliance” is the term I think I’ve seen. It reflects from the biden regime’s ignoring of clear court orders by sorta kinda complying by redefining terms and actions, and continuing on with the adjudicated illegal actions. Some of that is brewing in the Trump camp.
Similar actions by the buried elements of the swamp - ‘complying’ while at the same time throwing monkey wrenches into directives.

China –

The Taiwanese coast guard boarded the Chinese-owned vessel ”Hong Tai” after it was caught destroying an undersea telecommunications cable between Taiwan & its Kinmen island near China.
The crew, which is all Chinese, is being detained and taken to Taiwan.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Lavrov: there will be no ceasefire at the current combat lines, as Russian Federation has constitution

Russia is not considering any options allowing European peacekeepers to be deployed in Ukraine, - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying from single digits to the low 30s range, partly to mostly cloudy.

***

The governments of Ukraine and the United States have prepared the text of the agreement on economic cooperation - Prime Minister of Ukraine Shmyhal. The tenth point of the agreement between Ukraine and the United States will concern security guarantees

Ukrainian officials say Kyiv is now ready to sign the agreement on jointly developing its mineral resources, including oil and gas, after the US dropped demands for a right to $500bn in potential revenue from exploiting the resources

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Russian Shahed continue to be large. Overnight, Russia launched 177 Shahed drones of which 110 were shot down and another 66 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 26/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1170 men
+19 tanks
+15 AFVs
+34 artillery systems
+2 AD systems
+120 service vehicles

Russian sources confirm: Ukainian UAVs struck the Tuapse refinery overnight, damaging the ELOU-AVT-12 unit and a crude oil pipeline, causing a spill.
Reports mentioned 40 explosions—home to a seaport and an oil refinery previously hit in summer. Blasts were also heard in Sevastopol. Russia claims to have shot down 128 drones, but the full impact of the raid remains unknown.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Remaining the most active portion of the front, with fighting recently along the portion of the front east southeast of the city.

Summary —

Another big Shahed raid blunted, ground fighting remains at moderate levels.

Analyzing the US-Ukraine minerals deal. There has to be buried in the agreement somewhere that could pull the US into additional support to protect those resources from Russian capture or damage of extraction facilities. Scratching head . . . .

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel in mourning as the remains of Shiri Bibas and her sons Ariel and Kfir are laid to rest.

- Hamas is reported be releasing an additional 4 bodies of hostages murdered by the terrorists.

- Israel taking stronger stance against Syrian military buildup in S Syrian Druze regions.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Phase 1 of the Gaza ceasefire ends Saturday.

***
Hamas is not happy they can’t parade the Israeli hostage bodies. They finally folded.
Egyptian source: The release of all Palestinian prisoners will coincide with the handover of the bodies of 4 Israeli detainees under Egyptian supervision

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Israeli army: A rocket was fired from Gaza and fell inside the Strip

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli army: We targeted Hezbollah elements in a raid at a weapons storage site in the Bekaa

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

The Israeli army said that it struck command centers and multiple sites containing weapons in southern Syria. “The presence of military forces and assets in the southern part of Syria pose a threat to the citizens of Israel,” the Israeli army said

Defense Minister Katz :”The Air Force is now in southern Syria as part of the new policy we have defined of demilitarized southern Syria - and the message is clear: we will not allow southern Syria to become southern Lebanon

The Israeli army, supported by heavy military vehicles and equipment, penetrates the areas of Al-Amal Farms and Tal Al-Ahmar towards the Al-Makaser area, north of Quneitra.

Israeli PM Netanyahu laid out his vision for southern Syria:

1) IDF will remain indefinitely across on the Hermon Mt.
2) Syrian forces won’t be allowed south of Damascus.
3) IDF will ensure safety for the Druze in Syria.

Establishing a de facto autonomous Druze zone - map depicting such at link below

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GkkdnQ1XcAAGXaR?format=png&name=900x900

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan lashed out at Netanyahu, claiming his remarks on Syria expose Israel’s rejection of peace. He demanded Israel halt what he called “regional expansionism,” dismissing its security concerns as a pretext.

FYI Turkey has occupies 8,835 square kilometers of Syria.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The capitulation of Hamas to release additional bodies of Israelis they killed is notable in that it is a potential sign of weakness. Further, the more direct involvement of Egypt to prevent the disgusting shows Hamas has created in previous releases show they’ve lost a lot of global and arab support.

The big question is how much traction will the Phase 2 talks get or will they simply implode after this weekend. Israel is ready to resume fighting - with increased motivation. Hamas is reported to have been trying to reconstitute elements and bunkers/tunnels. However, the ceasefire has given Israeli intelligence time to refine their target set and identify command bunkers, etc.

Israel is making a big statement towards Syria to leave the Druze alone. Israel gained great respect from Druze living in the Golan for keeping their promise to avenge the children a Hezbollah rocket killed on a soccer field. Now making that protective support for others.
Israel has also been providing some support to the Kurds in N Syria, another group that is favorable toward the Jews.

Syria isn’t military ready to square up to Israel at this moment. Even Turkey is not ready, though they have been talking big lately.

A major development is the view that Iran has fissionable material to make two bombs with. That is the BIG red line and Iran’s recent scramble to try to deter Israel from hitting their nuclear sites may well reflect that they know that Israel knows what the status of the development is. And you can be sure the US knows this as well. This makes the possibility of a joint US/Israel strike a greater possibility. There are two B52 already in England and two more have arrived at a base in the Middle East. IIRC, that’s a bunch of cruise missiles each, plus the deployment capability of B2s to hit more hardened targets with the massive ordnance penetrator bombs.

At this stage, the question of does Iran have the material is still fuzzy, but indicators are that it is technologically feasible and possible. Clock is ticking.

Iran –

The Israeli Foreign Minister : “Iran has enriched enough uranium to make two bombs and is looking for ways to convert enriched nuclear materials into weapons. We do not have time. If the Iranian nuclear program is not stopped, it will be a disaster for Israel’s security. I believe that there must be a credible military option on the table to stop the Iranian nuclear program before it turns into a weapon. Failure to do so could lead to a nuclear arms race in the Middle East that includes Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.”

***
(ISW). The British ambassador to Israel stated on February 25 that the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) has given Iran until the end of June 2025 to conclude a new nuclear deal and prevent the imposition of snapback sanctions.

It is very unlikely that Iran will conclude a deal with the E3 and the United States by June 2025, given that such a deal would require Iran to completely change its current policy on negotiations.

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1894585117462433965?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Globalism / Great Reset –

The Climate Change Committee, the UK’s official Net Zero advisory body, has told the Government that to hit Net Zero it must impose radical lifestyle changes on the UK population. The Mail has more.

The Climate Change Committee was created by the Climate Change Act 2008 to give the Government independent advice on how to achieve its climate goals. The Government is obliged under the act to create legally binding carbon budgets for each five year period up to 2050 to ensure it is on track. The Government doesn’t have to accept the committee’s advice – though to date it invariably has – but it does have to set a binding carbon budget (this will be the seventh, for 2038-2042) that keeps the country on target.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/02/27/climate-change-committee-demands-government-impose-radical-lifestyle-changes-on-uk/

OBSERVATION - Demands found at the link are quite revealing concerning the globalists out there. In this case as quasi-govt has been established to force national policy towards net zero - no matter what level of damage it inflicts on the nation and its citizens. And the citizens are too brow beaten and dumbed down to stand up against it - except in some instances.

This is what the left was maneuvering the US towards prior to Trump’s reelection.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

More than 50 pro-Palestinian students at Columbia University stormed an administrative building at Barnard College, the university’s women’s college, late Wednesday night, staging a sit-in blocking the office of Dean Laura Rosenbury for several hours.

The students, wearing keffiyehs and masks, carried drums, flags and signs reading “Free Palestine,” demanding the reinstatement of two students suspended for distributing anti-Zionist flyers during classes, as well as the cancellation of disciplinary actions against students for pro-Palestinian activities. They also called for Barnard to divest funds and publicly condemn Israel’s military actions in Gaza.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hjmkk96qje#autoplay

OBSERVATION - Looks like the spring may well see another uprising of pro-hamas protests/riots on the nations’ campuses. This time may be different in that the Trump administration will take a dim view to foreign student’s participation and may aggressively arrest and deport.

***
Violence and threats continue in the Reddit world as leftists try to muster the courage for action -

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gkrqf5oWQAEro_g?format=jpg&name=medium

***
Weekend is approaching and numerous and varied protests are being planned across the country. At this stage, none appear to threaten significant violence, though some is to always be expected.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The new Pentagon policy states that individuals with gender dysphoria are “incompatible with the high mental and physical standards necessary for military service.” Under this directive:

- Service members diagnosed with gender dysphoria will be disqualified from military service unless they receive an exemption.
- Individuals who have taken cross-sex hormones or undergone sex-change surgery are also disqualified from serving.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

White House Coronavirus Response Coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx has come out to say that “the science” has “done wrong in public health.” Vaccine hesitancy rates have been rising since it was exposed that the mRNA vaccine did more harm than good. Birx has admitted that the COVID vaccine was never meant to be a preventative measure.

“The science” should not have forced the general population to take an experimental vaccination, Dr. Birx admits. The vaccine was initially designed, allegedly, to protect people “at risk for severe disease” and/or those over 65 with comorbidities. Even then, the vaccine did not protect any segment of the population from transmission and infection. So the most vulnerable in the population were not only still exposed to COVID-19, but they were then at risk for developing potentially fatal side effects brought on by the vaccine itself.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/02/white-house-covid-coordinator-vaccine-was-never-meant-to-prevent-infection/

OBSERVATION - This is kind of repetitive, but we can never be allowed to forget the dastardly actions of those ‘experts’ that inflicted the wuhan damage upon our nation. Nor can we allow them to reinstate a similar disaster upon us in the future.

The perpetrators like Brix need jail time.

POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.

(FO) Appropriations Committee Chair Tom Cole (R-OK) said Democrats are holding up negotiations over must-pass spending bills ahead of the 14 March deadline. Cole said Democrats are asking the GOP to include unreasonable and potentially unconstitutional limits on the Trump administration, including minimum staffing levels at federal agencies.

***
The top judge in the United States has given temporary backing to the Trump administration’s freeze on foreign aid payments.
Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts’ intervention came as the administration faced a midnight deadline (05:00 GMT on Thursday) to pay contractors.

US District Judge Amir Ali had ordered the US State Department and USAID to pay about $2bn-worth of bills (£1.6bn) to contractors by midnight on Wednesday.
It is one of many interventions by judges trying to stop or pause a wave of Trump administration orders.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgwwp2gd3jo

OBSERVATION - Word on Ali is corruption to the max and the USSC’s intervention this early in the lawfare game is giving some thoughts that they are not going to let the judicial interference with clear Executive branch actions continue much longer.

***
Epstein list is expected to be released starting today.

***
(FO) The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) directed federal agencies to submit plans by 13 March for large-scale reductions in force, and the starting point for plans should be federal workers who are deemed non-essential during government shutdowns. The OMB said certain agencies and job categories including national security and law enforcement are exempt from cuts.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump released an AI movie of his vision for Gaza without Hamas. It is pretty wild to say the least and is designed to inflame the left.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024

DNI Gabbard is probing the implications of the UK’s alleged demand that Apple share users’ iCloud data by creating “a ‘backdoor’ that would allow access to Americans’ personal encrypted data.”

Gabbard: “This would be a clear and egregious violation of Americans’ privacy and civil liberties, and open up a serious vulnerability for cyber exploitation by adversarial actors.”

OBSERVATION - EU entities and British ones in particular, have been threatening to arrest US citizens for ‘violations’ of their censorship laws. Noted previously, if Apple has deliberately or in error granted them a full back door access to all apple user data, then this becomes explosive for security as well as international relations.

China –

China conducted another short-notice live fire exercise this morning off southern Taiwan. This follows Chinese snap life-fire exercises off the coast of Australia.

***
The U.S. Department of State and the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) have announced sanctions on six entities, based in China and Hong Kong, that have directly and indirectly aided in the procurement of drone components for two key Iranian suppliers.

North/South Korea –

North Korea has sent more soldiers to Russia. Some reports of as many as 3000 more.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russian Personnel Issues –-

North Korea has sent more soldiers to Russia and re-deployed several to the frontline in Kursk, Seoul’s spy agency told AFP

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying from single digits to the low 30s range, partly to mostly cloudy.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense repelled a Russian drone attack. Out of 166 Shahed drones launched, 90 were shot down and another 72 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 27/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1150 men
+8 tanks
+13 AFVs
+69 artillery systems
+1 AD system
+149 service vehicles

Kursk Front -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Nikolskoye village of Kursk region

Summary —

Political talks over a cease fire continue to swirl, nothing seems set.

Ground war is largely at a stalemate, both sides have made minor gains over the past few days. No evidence that Russia has what it takes for any significant tactical/strategic breakout on the ground. Russian losses suggest moderate levels of fighting.

Europe / NATO General –

Romania arrested Călin Georgescu Wednesday on charges of “incitement to actions against the constitutional order” and “initiating or constituting a fascist, racist or xenophobic organization with an anti-Semitic character.” President Trump previously sent a team of diplomats to Romania to warn them not to block Călin Georgescu’s campaign.

Georgescu is a very popular candidate and could win in a fair election. The phrase “color election” is coming to the forefront.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas handed over the remains of 4 Israeli hostages overnight with none of the spectacle of the past returns.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The Abu Kabir Forensic Institute in Tel-Aviv has now identified the Bodies of the Four Hostages who were released last night by Hamas, as Tsachi Idan, a 49-Year-Old who was living in Kibbutz Nahal Oz during the October 7th Attack, and who watched his 18-Year-Old Daughter by murdered before being taken from his Family; Ohad Yahalomi, a 49-Year-Old French-Israeli who was wounded and kidnapped while defending his Family in Kibbutz Nir Ozz; Itzik Elgarat, a 69-Year-Old who was shot and kidnapped during the Attack on Kibbutz Nir Oz; and finally Shlomo Mansour, an Iraqi-born 86-Year-Old who was kidnapped from Kibbutz Kissufim and declared dead earlier in February.

Palestinian prisoners will not be released until the bodies of Israeli hostages are positively identified.

As Phase one is nearing completion, 59 hostages remain in Gaza, of whom 35 are believed to be dead based on forensic evidence and gathered intelligence. Netanyahu’s current focus is on rescuing as many living hostages from Gaza as quickly as possible.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Senior Israeli Officials have now stated that the Israel Defense Force no longer plans to withdraw from the “Philadelphi Corridor” between Egypt and the Southern Gaza Strip, despite previously agreeing to begin withdrawing from the Corridor on the 42nd Day of Phase 1 of the Ceasefire, which is coming this Sunday. They state that the decision is due to concerns that Hamas will use the “Philadelphi Corridor” to smuggled Weapons into Gaza from Egypt, with an Official saying, “We will not leave the Philadelphi Corridor. We will not allow the Hamas murderers to again roam our borders with pickup trucks and guns, and we will not allow them to rearm through smuggling.”

***
Hamas fired a rocket that didn’t leave Gaza yesterday and IAF struck the launch site as well as at least one other site.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

An Israeli airstrike this morning on a vehicle in the town of Qasr, on the northern border between Lebanon and Syria, eliminated Nasser al-Din, a senior operative with Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, which is responsible for the smuggling of Iranian weapons into Lebanon.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas must have had its ears pinned back over the grotesque spectacles it
created over the recent living/dead hostage releases. Over night, Hamas released four bodies under the cover of darkness with no big production. One thought is that Hamas and its supporters must have realized they poked the bear too hard and reprisals will be harsh. Other is that Hamas doesn’t want to screw up Phase 2 deliberations (designed to allow them to rebuild and consolidate power).

Phase 1 officially ends this weekend and talks continue from the Israeli side to extend it in order to get as many hostages released as possible before slamming the door shut on Hamas face and resuming combat. Trump has been very outspoken that he fully supports the resumption of the fight against Hamas and wonders why Israel is waiting. He has acknowledged the complexity of the situation for Netanyahu though.

Plans for a strike on Iran are likely very close to completion. Iran for its part has been scrapping together remnants of its ADA network to piece together defenses over key nuclear facilities. These ADA assets proved to be impotent against Israeli aircraft in the last strike and won’t last long in the next engagement.

What is the key element is the penetrating Iran’s centrifuge sites. They are believed to be at least 80 meters deep in solid rock. This requires BIG bombs. IAF can carry some of these munitions but would require quite an extensive air campaign to destroy these facilities. This gap could be bridged by active participation by the US that can carry the really big penetrators.

An alternative that may be more feasible is the striking of the entrances to these facilities, collapsing tens of meters of rock into the access tunnels and hitting power/air/water facilities on the surface. This would isolate the facilities and potential shut them down with damaged centrifuges from power surges/shut offs. It would take considerable resources for Iran to reopen the accesses to get to the facilities, and get them running again, during which further airstrikes could continue the damages.

I have no doubt Iran would launch another missile attack on Israel and perhaps US bases in the region. The latter would almost guarantee an escalation in US activity in the Persian gulf, likely rendering the Iranian navy and other forces in the region into rubble. Like when Trump dropped the MOAB on the Taliban base, they should be well aware he is not afraid to wield the sword.

Mexico -

The Secretariat of National Defense (SEDENA) has confirmed that American surveillance assets have been flying over Mexico, at the request and in order to support the Mexican Government; with several high-level arrests of senior “Chapitos” leaders in the Mexican State of Sinaloa, claimed to have resulted from these surveillance flights.

OBSERVATION - So far, passive support to Mexico’s efforts against cartels. And Mexico so far has been able to press the attacks in a more or less successful manner. One thing in Mexico’s favor is that the cartels are spending more time fighting each other than the govt.

Venezuela -

biden era oil deal has been pulled by Trump. This will result in a significant economic blow to Venezuela.

Misc of Note –

Quick observations on the progress of Trump’s war against the deep state.

So far using DOGE, Trump has struck the financial chain of the NGOs and leftists - picking the low hanging fruit. Trump has also gotten his cabinet thru the approval process in spite of democrat efforts to the contrary.
We’ve seen the left - particularly leftist activist judges - try to force judicial will over a strictly executive operation. Many of these judges are corrupted in that they have financial interests in keeping the money flowing. This effort may be reaching a high water mark with the interjection (strong) by Roberts and the USSC review.

We are now seeing the transition of the revolution shifting more to the newly appointed cabinet officials who are working to remove the cancer from within. Examples include firing the Chair of the Joint Chief (as well as other DEI generals), expulsion of transgender operations, etc. On the Intel side, a least 100 NSA employee are out and minus their security clearances for their use of a govt chat line that they turned into a morass of all kinds of sexual perversion. FBI getting cleaned, DHS being cleaned, etc. Now mass firings are on the horizon.

The tempo of the moves of the Trump administration still has democrats on their heels. The next big counter attack is expected to be over the budget that the house passed over to the senate. Democrats are very open about sabotaging it in order to shut the govt down in an extreme effort to blame it on Trump. Key is whether or not the senate republicans will hold together as they did thru the confirmations.

Outside of that are efforts by congressional democrats to hire the fired attorneys from the DOJ in an effort to enhance further lawfare against the administration on anything and everything possible. May play for the hard core, but as the people saw over the past four years of Trump persecutions, there is a hollowness to it and these lawyers will be fighting actions popular with the electorate.

As these actions proceed, one wild card is when will the left finally get their storm troopers of ANTIFA, pro-hamas and others fired up and into the streets. These elements, particularly Antifa, have been organizing political and military structures over the past 10 years for such a moment. These elements are still struggling to find an issue that the masses will mobilize for - the main hinderance so far. Redditors have been making a big talk, but little action seen. But this talk could result in a growing likelihood of a lone wolf attack - and more assassination attempts on Trump and key members of his administration - Musk in particular.

The even darker specter of terror groups imbedded in the mass of illegals activating on the command of their foreign leaders. Iran and China come immediately to mind.

Things may seem ‘calm’ but there are strong undercurrents in the political and society remain.

Globalism / Great Reset –

WHO is scrambling for funding now that the US has pulled out along with all the $$$ it has been providing.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

Weekend is approaching and numerous and varied protests are being planned across the country. A large number of these protests are being directed against Musk / DOGE / Tesla. At this stage, none appear to threaten significant violence, though some is to always be expected.

***
Here’s the scoop on the “total economic blackout”:
The Feb. 28 economic blackout calls on consumers to avoid all unnecessary purchases, either in-person or online, from midnight Thursday through midnight Friday.
‘No Amazon, No Walmart, No Best Buy,’ The People’s Union USA website reads. ‘Nowhere!’
It further urges participants not to spend money on fast food, major retailers or gas, and to avoid using credit or debit cards to make nonessential purchases.
The blackout makes an exception for buying ‘essentials of absolutely necessary’ — like medicine, food or emergency supplies — but urges consumers to make those purchases at small, local businesses.
Zoom in: The People’s Union USA has other targeted economic actions planned for after the blackout.
These include weeklong blackouts against specific retailers, including Amazon, Nestlé and Walmart.

https://notthebee.com/article/you-literally-spend-zero-dollars-liberals-are-staging-a-total-economic-blackout-boycott-this-friday-to-protest-donald-trump

OBSERVATION - I really don’t think these leftists have the economic clout to make any real dent in business.
Other similar boycott protests are being scheduled for the next few months.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025

Indiana Antifa militant arrested for making threats to “gut” Elon Musk and murder him in various ways

David Allen June Cherry, 28, of Clarksville, Ind., was arrested on Feb. 18 following an investigation into at least five violent extremist threats he posted to @ElonMusk on social media.

The threats include statements such as “We will gut you and parade your corpse through the streets,” “This man needs to be shot,” “We’re gunning you down, Muskrat,” and “I’ve got enough bullets for his b—ch a—.”

The state police search of Cherry’s home revealed he had a cache of weapons and ammunition.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1895261083486822496?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - We are seeing the continued rise in lone wolf style attacks.

***
BETHEL PARK, Penn. — It’s been almost nine months since a seemingly mild-mannered 20-year-old attempted to assassinate then-Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump at a rally in Butler.
And we still have no good reason why.

Sources told The Post the FBI has obstructed efforts to solve the mystery of why Thomas Matthew Crooks, who left no manifesto, did what he did. It’s left local law enforcement as well as Crooks’ former friends, classmates and teachers frustrated.

https://nypost.com/2025/02/27/us-news/would-be-trump-assassin-thomas-matthew-crooks-may-have-had-accomplice-data-shows/

OBSERVATION - More of the FBI withholding information. The silence is loud in respect to an accomplice(s).

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. Agriculture Department predicts record egg prices could soar more than 40% in 2025, as the Trump administration offered the first new details Wednesday about its plan to battle bird flu and ease costs.

With an emphasis on farms tightening their measures to prevent bird flu’s spread, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the USDA will invest another $1 billion on top of the roughly $2 billion it has already spent since the outbreak began in 2022.

The main reason egg prices have climbed — hitting an all-time average high of $4.95 per dozen this month — is that more than 166 million birds have been slaughtered to limit the virus’ spread when cases are found. Most were egg-laying chickens. Just since the start of the year, more than 30 million egg layers have been killed.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/egg-prices-could-jump-another-183637526.html?guccounter=1

OBSERVATION - The bird flu in some ways is being treated in the same manner as wuhan was just a few years ago. No effort to have a natural build up of immunity - just massive culls of the animals. This policy was set in motion during biden’s last months. Secondly, this has become a new cause for the mRNA crowd to apply that demonstrably failed technology on all remaining poultry, with complete disregard to any effects humans may have from the mRNA contaminated eggs and meat. Globally, world’s poultry is not suffering like it is here in the US.

The govt is also considering temporarily importing eggs that meet US safety standards. However, the quantity of imported eggs are believed to be insufficient given the demands of the US market.

***
U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly fell in January, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge ticked down to 2.5% on an annualized basis, in line with economists’ forecasts.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/inflation-consumer-spending/2025/02/28/id/1200834/

OBSERVATION - Skeptical over the numbers given these are still biden numbers and reporting is still skewed to make bidenomics appear to be working. Article notes a large drop in consumer spending that reportedly help keep inflationary demands down. This is not a very good sign, and suggest consumers are reaching the tapped out limits of their budgets and credit availability.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

President Trump has rolled back constraints on American commanders to authorize airstrikes and special operation raids outside conventional battlefields, broadening the range of people who can be targeted.

This reverses Biden-era policies and marks a return to Trump’s aggressive counterterrorism strategy.

Potential targets include Al-Shabaab in Somalia and the Houthis in Yemen.

***
USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) completed a series of emergency repairs after a collision with a merchant ship and is now back underway in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Navy announced Monday.

Truman entered the emergent repair availability in Souda Bay, Greece, on Feb. 16, four days after the aircraft carrier collided with a merchant vessel near Port Said, Egypt, damaging a sponson to the rear of Truman’s aft starboard aircraft elevator and also piercing the hull above the waterline farther down the ship. Capt. Christopher “Chowdah” Hill, who previously commanded USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69), is now leading Truman‘s crew after the Navy relieved the former commanding officer following the collision.

“Our ship remains operationally ready to complete deployment with mission and purpose on full display by the entire crew,” Hill said in the Navy news release. “We are out here launching and recovering aircraft, ready to ‘Give ‘em Hell’ with combat credible power.”

The emergent repair availability took five days, according to the release, and involved the Forward Deployed Regional Maintenance Center, Naval Norfolk Shipyard and Theodoropoulos Group, a local industry partner.

While Truman is operating in U.S. 6th Fleet, it’s unclear if the ship will soon head back to the Middle East. Truman was near the entrance to the Suez Canal, which would lead to the Red Sea, when the two ships collided.

https://news.usni.org/2025/02/24/uss-harry-s-truman-back-underway-after-repairs-following-collision

POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.

The rollout the Epstine documents was far below underwhelming - it over sold and underproduced. Information released was already present from previous releases. It generated a strong letter to Patel to get all the documentation from the SDNY FBI office that is currently holding it.

It turns out that this episode has revealed that the SDNY is one of the ‘resistance’ strong holds. FBI agent in charge of the district is James, the guy who emailed his whole staff to “dig in” after Trump took office.”

Another element is that James Comey’s daughter is an assistant U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, and she worked on the Epstein and Maxwell cases. She’s kind of knee-deep in this.

This is evidence of ‘malicious compliance’ on the part of the swamp. Supply some of the demanded material, but not all.

Bondi may have gone a little ballistic with the letter - hopefully she spoke with Patel first. Could also have been deliberate on Bondi’s and Patel’s part to fully flush out the traitorous scum in the SDNY office.
Bondi is not hiding anything, she is not covering up Epstein. She wants the info released. She knows her reputation is on the line.

She and Patel need to drop the hammer on FBi agents who are resisting. Perp walk fully justified.

There are growing concerns that rogue FBI and other agency agents are working hard to destroy evidence like the Epstine files as well as others. This includes material on servers as well as hard copies.

Reality is - firing the individuals is not enough. There needs to be jail time as well.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Trump has been squeezing Mexico to control the border and clamp down on drug trafficking. He has threatened significant tariffs which would crush the Mexican economy if imposed. Mexico is hoping to avoid the tariffs and Reaper strikes within their borders and is handing over 29 cartel bigwigs as a gesture to show they mean business and are willing to work with the US.

Rafael Caro Quintero, a Mexican Drug Lord suspected to have been involved in the murder of DEA Agent, Enrique “Kiki” Camarena Salazar in 1985, is one of 29 senior cartel members that were extradited today to the United States by the Mexican Government. Those extradited include leaders of the Los Chimales, Gulf Cartel, Los Zetas, Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG, as well as many other high-ranking criminals.

OBSERVATION - Some view this action as an effort to delay the implementation of tariffs on Mexico. This also reflects increased intelligence provided by the US via airborne platforms to Mexico.

***
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday is set to meet with President Donald Trump for the first time since he re-entered the White House to sign what could be a key minerals deal to help end Russia’s war.
Though some details of the agreement have emerged since the meeting was announced this week, the exact terms remain unclear, and European leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, are waiting to see what could come out of this agreement, particularly when it comes to security demands.
Trump on Wednesday told reporters that Zelenskyy could “forget about” any ambitions to join NATO, but the Ukrainian president also said that day that he needs security guarantees, otherwise “we won’t have a ceasefire, nothing will work, nothing.”

https://www.foxnews.com/world/trump-zelenskyy-meet-key-deal-nato-allies-russia-wait-watch

North/South Korea –

North Korea says it has test-launched a strategic cruise missile to demonstrate the reliability of its nuclear deterrence, Yonhap news reported on Friday.

I’ve noted many times I am not certain that NK has miniaturized their warheads to make them capable of being mounted on the cruise and ballistic missiles they have created. Like the case with Iran, the big Hiroshima bomb is now relatively easy to make. Down sizing that weapon from something that needed a heavy bomber to carry to that of a missile is a big step.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Economic Impact –

Trump decided to extend sanctions against Russia for another year. This is stated in an unpublished executive order. It will be published February 28

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying from single digits to the low 30s range, partly to mostly cloudy.

***
Zelensky has arrived in the U.S., landing at Andrews Air Base. Today, he is scheduled to meet with senators at 16:30 and with Trump at 18:00. Following these meetings, a bilateral agreement will be signed, including provisions on minerals.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia again launched a large Shahed drone attack. Out of 208 launched, 107 were shot down and 97 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 28/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1060 men
+13 tanks
+17 AFVs
+54 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+126 service vehicles

Last night, a thermobaric ammunition depot of the Russian Armed Forces was destroyed near Selydove, as reported by the General Staff. Three significant targets were struck, including the Ilsk Oil Refinery.

Russia is admitting that Ukraine EW efforts to thwart the glide bombs Russia has effectively used in previous months is taking its toll and accuracy of the devices has fallen way down.

Summary —

Ground war is shifting to that of a stalemate. It appear that Russia is reaching a limit on personnel and equipment to maintain the tempo of fighting it has over the past few months.

Russia maintaining the massive blitz of Shahed drones, but 4 unstopped drones in a couple hundred launched is pretty poor results.

As a former SIGINT/EW officer, the shear volume of EW in the war is staggering. In my days, the Soviet Union touted massive amounts of jammers and direction finding equipment. Those forces took a hit after the cold war and as new technologies came out that defeated their capabilities. One thing I’m interested in is if either side has devoted much to direction finding.

Politics of a ceasefire continue. Results of todays’ talks will be very important.

Europe / NATO General –

Romania has passes a law authorizing the shoot down of Russian drones that encroach Romanian airspace.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Talks underway on extending Phase 1 or implementation of Phase 2

- Plans for an Oct 7 style attack coming out of Judea and Samaria have been captured.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Reuters: Israeli delegation in Cairo trying to reach agreement to extend first phase of Gaza deal for 42 more days

Hamas rejects extension of first phase of agreement, calls for immediate entry into negotiations for second phase

***
At least 13 pedestrians were wounded after a terrorist rammed into pedestrians on Highway 65 near the Pardes Hanna-Karkur intersection, Israel Police confirmed on Thursday afternoon.
Following the ramming, police officers immediately identified the suspect’s vehicle traveling toward Gan Shmuel and blocked its path.
The terrorist accelerated, rammed a police vehicle, and then exited while charging at officers with a sharp object, later identified as a screwdriver. At this point, the terrorist was shot.

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-64/

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The IAF bombed Deir Qanoun al-Nahr in southern Lebanon targeted a place near the shrine of the former Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hashem Safi al-Din.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syrian media: Israeli forces penetrate into the town of Al-Rafid in the Quneitra countryside in the south of the country

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Defense Minister Israel Katz revealed on Thursday that security forces recently discovered Hamas files proving the terrorist group had plans to carry out a large-scale assault on communities in Judea and Samaria and along the Seam Line security barrier.

“Hamas files have been seized that had a purpose of attacking towns in Judea and Samaria and along the Seam Line,” Katz said in remarks to heads of regional councils, Israel Hayom reported.

“The communities in Judea and Samaria are the protective wall of most of the State of Israel,” the defense minister declared. “When Judea and Samaria are protected, the large cities are protected. We must be on the offensive in Judea and defeat the enemy.”

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi’s and Iranian backed militias in Iraq maintain silence and inaction against Israel.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

It is not certain if Phase 1 will be extended after this weekend. Israel is pushing for an extension because it sees a crack in Hamas resolve - especially with the last hostage exchange. Hamas may also be seeing the threat a rejuvenated Israeli effort into Gaza will be to their survival. More and more, international efforts are pushing for the removal of all Hamas from Gaza and Hamas is trying to see a way forward in this.

The next couple weeks will tell if war restarts or Hamas capitulates further with an extension of Phase 1 exchanges.

Interesting note that Trump encouraged Israel to take advantage of Nazerallah’s funeral ceremony to take out a bunch of terrorists. Israel declined based on it focus on Gaza and potential action there.

Israel remains aggressive in S Syria, warning the new govt to keep hands off Druze territories. Israel is even thinking of allowing Syrian Druze members access to Israel for work purposes - replacing palestine workers. This would be a financial boon to those Syrians, and further the Israeli cause to have a reliable ally as a buffer to Syria, mutually supporting.

Turkey –

Erdogan’s party: Kurdish militants in Türkiye, Iraq and Syria must lay down their weapons

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.