Globalism / Great Reset –
WHO is scrambling for funding now that the US has pulled out along with all the $$$ it has been providing.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Weekend is approaching and numerous and varied protests are being planned across the country. A large number of these protests are being directed against Musk / DOGE / Tesla. At this stage, none appear to threaten significant violence, though some is to always be expected.
***
Here’s the scoop on the “total economic blackout”:
The Feb. 28 economic blackout calls on consumers to avoid all unnecessary purchases, either in-person or online, from midnight Thursday through midnight Friday.
‘No Amazon, No Walmart, No Best Buy,’ The People’s Union USA website reads. ‘Nowhere!’
It further urges participants not to spend money on fast food, major retailers or gas, and to avoid using credit or debit cards to make nonessential purchases.
The blackout makes an exception for buying ‘essentials of absolutely necessary’ — like medicine, food or emergency supplies — but urges consumers to make those purchases at small, local businesses.
Zoom in: The People’s Union USA has other targeted economic actions planned for after the blackout.
These include weeklong blackouts against specific retailers, including Amazon, Nestlé and Walmart.
OBSERVATION - I really don’t think these leftists have the economic clout to make any real dent in business.
Other similar boycott protests are being scheduled for the next few months.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
Indiana Antifa militant arrested for making threats to “gut” Elon Musk and murder him in various ways
David Allen June Cherry, 28, of Clarksville, Ind., was arrested on Feb. 18 following an investigation into at least five violent extremist threats he posted to @ElonMusk on social media.
The threats include statements such as “We will gut you and parade your corpse through the streets,” “This man needs to be shot,” “We’re gunning you down, Muskrat,” and “I’ve got enough bullets for his b—ch a—.”
The state police search of Cherry’s home revealed he had a cache of weapons and ammunition.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1895261083486822496?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - We are seeing the continued rise in lone wolf style attacks.
***
BETHEL PARK, Penn. — It’s been almost nine months since a seemingly mild-mannered 20-year-old attempted to assassinate then-Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump at a rally in Butler.
And we still have no good reason why.
Sources told The Post the FBI has obstructed efforts to solve the mystery of why Thomas Matthew Crooks, who left no manifesto, did what he did. It’s left local law enforcement as well as Crooks’ former friends, classmates and teachers frustrated.
OBSERVATION - More of the FBI withholding information. The silence is loud in respect to an accomplice(s).
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. Agriculture Department predicts record egg prices could soar more than 40% in 2025, as the Trump administration offered the first new details Wednesday about its plan to battle bird flu and ease costs.
With an emphasis on farms tightening their measures to prevent bird flu’s spread, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the USDA will invest another $1 billion on top of the roughly $2 billion it has already spent since the outbreak began in 2022.
The main reason egg prices have climbed — hitting an all-time average high of $4.95 per dozen this month — is that more than 166 million birds have been slaughtered to limit the virus’ spread when cases are found. Most were egg-laying chickens. Just since the start of the year, more than 30 million egg layers have been killed.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/egg-prices-could-jump-another-183637526.html?guccounter=1
OBSERVATION - The bird flu in some ways is being treated in the same manner as wuhan was just a few years ago. No effort to have a natural build up of immunity - just massive culls of the animals. This policy was set in motion during biden’s last months. Secondly, this has become a new cause for the mRNA crowd to apply that demonstrably failed technology on all remaining poultry, with complete disregard to any effects humans may have from the mRNA contaminated eggs and meat. Globally, world’s poultry is not suffering like it is here in the US.
The govt is also considering temporarily importing eggs that meet US safety standards. However, the quantity of imported eggs are believed to be insufficient given the demands of the US market.
***
U.S. consumer spending unexpectedly fell in January, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge ticked down to 2.5% on an annualized basis, in line with economists’ forecasts.
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/inflation-consumer-spending/2025/02/28/id/1200834/
OBSERVATION - Skeptical over the numbers given these are still biden numbers and reporting is still skewed to make bidenomics appear to be working. Article notes a large drop in consumer spending that reportedly help keep inflationary demands down. This is not a very good sign, and suggest consumers are reaching the tapped out limits of their budgets and credit availability.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
President Trump has rolled back constraints on American commanders to authorize airstrikes and special operation raids outside conventional battlefields, broadening the range of people who can be targeted.
This reverses Biden-era policies and marks a return to Trump’s aggressive counterterrorism strategy.
Potential targets include Al-Shabaab in Somalia and the Houthis in Yemen.
***
USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) completed a series of emergency repairs after a collision with a merchant ship and is now back underway in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Navy announced Monday.
Truman entered the emergent repair availability in Souda Bay, Greece, on Feb. 16, four days after the aircraft carrier collided with a merchant vessel near Port Said, Egypt, damaging a sponson to the rear of Truman’s aft starboard aircraft elevator and also piercing the hull above the waterline farther down the ship. Capt. Christopher “Chowdah” Hill, who previously commanded USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69), is now leading Truman‘s crew after the Navy relieved the former commanding officer following the collision.
“Our ship remains operationally ready to complete deployment with mission and purpose on full display by the entire crew,” Hill said in the Navy news release. “We are out here launching and recovering aircraft, ready to ‘Give ‘em Hell’ with combat credible power.”
The emergent repair availability took five days, according to the release, and involved the Forward Deployed Regional Maintenance Center, Naval Norfolk Shipyard and Theodoropoulos Group, a local industry partner.
While Truman is operating in U.S. 6th Fleet, it’s unclear if the ship will soon head back to the Middle East. Truman was near the entrance to the Suez Canal, which would lead to the Red Sea, when the two ships collided.
https://news.usni.org/2025/02/24/uss-harry-s-truman-back-underway-after-repairs-following-collision
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
The rollout the Epstine documents was far below underwhelming - it over sold and underproduced. Information released was already present from previous releases. It generated a strong letter to Patel to get all the documentation from the SDNY FBI office that is currently holding it.
It turns out that this episode has revealed that the SDNY is one of the ‘resistance’ strong holds. FBI agent in charge of the district is James, the guy who emailed his whole staff to “dig in” after Trump took office.”
Another element is that James Comey’s daughter is an assistant U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, and she worked on the Epstein and Maxwell cases. She’s kind of knee-deep in this.
This is evidence of ‘malicious compliance’ on the part of the swamp. Supply some of the demanded material, but not all.
Bondi may have gone a little ballistic with the letter - hopefully she spoke with Patel first. Could also have been deliberate on Bondi’s and Patel’s part to fully flush out the traitorous scum in the SDNY office.
Bondi is not hiding anything, she is not covering up Epstein. She wants the info released. She knows her reputation is on the line.
She and Patel need to drop the hammer on FBi agents who are resisting. Perp walk fully justified.
There are growing concerns that rogue FBI and other agency agents are working hard to destroy evidence like the Epstine files as well as others. This includes material on servers as well as hard copies.
Reality is - firing the individuals is not enough. There needs to be jail time as well.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
Trump has been squeezing Mexico to control the border and clamp down on drug trafficking. He has threatened significant tariffs which would crush the Mexican economy if imposed. Mexico is hoping to avoid the tariffs and Reaper strikes within their borders and is handing over 29 cartel bigwigs as a gesture to show they mean business and are willing to work with the US.
Rafael Caro Quintero, a Mexican Drug Lord suspected to have been involved in the murder of DEA Agent, Enrique “Kiki” Camarena Salazar in 1985, is one of 29 senior cartel members that were extradited today to the United States by the Mexican Government. Those extradited include leaders of the Los Chimales, Gulf Cartel, Los Zetas, Sinaloa Cartel and CJNG, as well as many other high-ranking criminals.
OBSERVATION - Some view this action as an effort to delay the implementation of tariffs on Mexico. This also reflects increased intelligence provided by the US via airborne platforms to Mexico.
***
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday is set to meet with President Donald Trump for the first time since he re-entered the White House to sign what could be a key minerals deal to help end Russia’s war.
Though some details of the agreement have emerged since the meeting was announced this week, the exact terms remain unclear, and European leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, are waiting to see what could come out of this agreement, particularly when it comes to security demands.
Trump on Wednesday told reporters that Zelenskyy could “forget about” any ambitions to join NATO, but the Ukrainian president also said that day that he needs security guarantees, otherwise “we won’t have a ceasefire, nothing will work, nothing.”
https://www.foxnews.com/world/trump-zelenskyy-meet-key-deal-nato-allies-russia-wait-watch
North/South Korea –
North Korea says it has test-launched a strategic cruise missile to demonstrate the reliability of its nuclear deterrence, Yonhap news reported on Friday.
I’ve noted many times I am not certain that NK has miniaturized their warheads to make them capable of being mounted on the cruise and ballistic missiles they have created. Like the case with Iran, the big Hiroshima bomb is now relatively easy to make. Down sizing that weapon from something that needed a heavy bomber to carry to that of a missile is a big step.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Economic Impact –
Trump decided to extend sanctions against Russia for another year. This is stated in an unpublished executive order. It will be published February 28
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying from single digits to the low 30s range, partly to mostly cloudy.
***
Zelensky has arrived in the U.S., landing at Andrews Air Base. Today, he is scheduled to meet with senators at 16:30 and with Trump at 18:00. Following these meetings, a bilateral agreement will be signed, including provisions on minerals.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia again launched a large Shahed drone attack. Out of 208 launched, 107 were shot down and 97 were suppressed by electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 28/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1060 men
+13 tanks
+17 AFVs
+54 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+126 service vehicles
Last night, a thermobaric ammunition depot of the Russian Armed Forces was destroyed near Selydove, as reported by the General Staff. Three significant targets were struck, including the Ilsk Oil Refinery.
Russia is admitting that Ukraine EW efforts to thwart the glide bombs Russia has effectively used in previous months is taking its toll and accuracy of the devices has fallen way down.
Summary —
Ground war is shifting to that of a stalemate. It appear that Russia is reaching a limit on personnel and equipment to maintain the tempo of fighting it has over the past few months.
Russia maintaining the massive blitz of Shahed drones, but 4 unstopped drones in a couple hundred launched is pretty poor results.
As a former SIGINT/EW officer, the shear volume of EW in the war is staggering. In my days, the Soviet Union touted massive amounts of jammers and direction finding equipment. Those forces took a hit after the cold war and as new technologies came out that defeated their capabilities. One thing I’m interested in is if either side has devoted much to direction finding.
Politics of a ceasefire continue. Results of todays’ talks will be very important.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania has passes a law authorizing the shoot down of Russian drones that encroach Romanian airspace.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Talks underway on extending Phase 1 or implementation of Phase 2
- Plans for an Oct 7 style attack coming out of Judea and Samaria have been captured.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Reuters: Israeli delegation in Cairo trying to reach agreement to extend first phase of Gaza deal for 42 more days
Hamas rejects extension of first phase of agreement, calls for immediate entry into negotiations for second phase
***
At least 13 pedestrians were wounded after a terrorist rammed into pedestrians on Highway 65 near the Pardes Hanna-Karkur intersection, Israel Police confirmed on Thursday afternoon.
Following the ramming, police officers immediately identified the suspect’s vehicle traveling toward Gan Shmuel and blocked its path.
The terrorist accelerated, rammed a police vehicle, and then exited while charging at officers with a sharp object, later identified as a screwdriver. At this point, the terrorist was shot.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-64/
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The IAF bombed Deir Qanoun al-Nahr in southern Lebanon targeted a place near the shrine of the former Secretary-General of Hezbollah, Hashem Safi al-Din.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian media: Israeli forces penetrate into the town of Al-Rafid in the Quneitra countryside in the south of the country
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Defense Minister Israel Katz revealed on Thursday that security forces recently discovered Hamas files proving the terrorist group had plans to carry out a large-scale assault on communities in Judea and Samaria and along the Seam Line security barrier.
“Hamas files have been seized that had a purpose of attacking towns in Judea and Samaria and along the Seam Line,” Katz said in remarks to heads of regional councils, Israel Hayom reported.
“The communities in Judea and Samaria are the protective wall of most of the State of Israel,” the defense minister declared. “When Judea and Samaria are protected, the large cities are protected. We must be on the offensive in Judea and defeat the enemy.”
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi’s and Iranian backed militias in Iraq maintain silence and inaction against Israel.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
It is not certain if Phase 1 will be extended after this weekend. Israel is pushing for an extension because it sees a crack in Hamas resolve - especially with the last hostage exchange. Hamas may also be seeing the threat a rejuvenated Israeli effort into Gaza will be to their survival. More and more, international efforts are pushing for the removal of all Hamas from Gaza and Hamas is trying to see a way forward in this.
The next couple weeks will tell if war restarts or Hamas capitulates further with an extension of Phase 1 exchanges.
Interesting note that Trump encouraged Israel to take advantage of Nazerallah’s funeral ceremony to take out a bunch of terrorists. Israel declined based on it focus on Gaza and potential action there.
Israel remains aggressive in S Syria, warning the new govt to keep hands off Druze territories. Israel is even thinking of allowing Syrian Druze members access to Israel for work purposes - replacing palestine workers. This would be a financial boon to those Syrians, and further the Israeli cause to have a reliable ally as a buffer to Syria, mutually supporting.
Turkey –
Erdogan’s party: Kurdish militants in Türkiye, Iraq and Syria must lay down their weapons
The FBI needs to get their computer people to start looking for 'lone wolves' among the liberal haters. If they don't people will start to wonder if rogue agents were in on the assassination attempts on Trump...
Zelenskyy is risking Ukraine being nuked by Russia... World War III? If Zelensky doesn't want to work with us we're NOT going to die for him.... he can die for himself.
Tomorrow may be a shorter post - have early morning requirements
There will be no post Monday as I will be getting a routine medical procedure that occurs every 5 years first thing in the morning.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Globalist European nations convulsing over Trump’s stand in the press conference yesterday.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
The apparent break with Ukraine may set off some pro-Ukraine protests this weekend. However, the potential for violence is low. Some leftist elements may attempt to hijack elements to forge more anti-Trump sentiments that can be used for other, more violent, actions.
Again, weekly protests on a variety of issues expected in cities across the US. Threat of violence continues to be low but some localized incidents may happen. Situational awareness is critical.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
***
California’s cage-free chicken regulation in the midst of a bird flu pandemic has driven the cost of a dozen eggs above $10 in the state - far above the cost in other areas of the U.S. - the USDA reports.
A USDA press release published Wednesday on efforts to combat high prices nationwide describes the inflationary impact of California’s “recent regulatory burdens” on the cost of eggs in the state:
“USDA will educate consumers and Congress on the need to fix the problem of geographical price differences for eggs, such as in California, where recent regulatory burdens, in addition to avian flu, have resulted in the price of eggs being 60% higher than other regions of the country.”
California’s Proposition 12, which went into effect in 2022, requires that all eggs sold in the state come from cage-free hens, including eggs imported from other states.
Egg prices in the state spiked dramatically over the next year, and cost consumers $23 million annually, Food Dive reported in February of 2023, noting Californians lost access to eggs from about two-thirds of the nation’s egg-laying flocks:
“After California’s law, known as Proposition 12, took effect, egg prices in that state increased dramatically. Californians paid $5.62 for a dozen eggs in early February, compared to $3.05 for non-cage free eggs in the Midwest, according to The Wall Street Journal.
“Research published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics projected the law will result in an annual loss of $23 million for consumers in the state.
“Currently cage-free eggs make up 34.6% of the total egg-laying flocks in the U.S., according to WATT Poultry.”
https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/californias-cage-free-egg-reg-causes-prices-crack-10-dozen
OBSERVATION - This stresses other states as well, even though they don’t have the free range requirements. Competition for replacement egg laying hens will remain high, keeping prices high for the near term. Until the govt finds some way of addressing bird flu other than the mass destruction of flocks the chicken/egg market will remain stressed and costly.
POLITICAL FRONT –
MARCH 15, 2025 - CR runs out on funding the govt.
Watching weekend maneuvering on key political items, such as the Epstine documents, illegal immigration, and the budget bill. I expect a lot of bloviation regarding Ukraine on the talking heads Sunday shows.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
The State Department is ending its support for Ukraine’s power grid restoration
***
Senior U.S. official says clash between Zelenskiy and Trump will likely accelerate efforts to investigate waste, fraud, and abuse in U.S. aid to Ukraine
***
Adversarial governments to the United States, including in Russia and China, are attempting to hire former federal employees who have been fired from the Trump administration after thousands of employees have been let go since President Donald Trump took office, according to CNN.
The outlet reported that four sources familiar with US intelligence being gathered on the issue said that Russia and China have been making a concerted effort to recruit those who feel they have been targeted by the administration because of getting fired or those that fear they will be fired.
“It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to see that these cast aside federal workers with a wealth of institutional knowledge represent staggeringly attractive targets to the intelligence services of our competitors and adversaries,” one source told the outlet.
Another source told reporters at CNN that China and Russia think that the staffers “are at their most vulnerable right now,” that they are “out of a job [and] bitter about being fired.”
TRUMP Watch –
February went out with a massive explosion. Ukraine’s Zelensky came to the WH with one simple task - sign a minerals agreement that would be a component to ending the war with Russia. Then he stepped on himself -
A press briefing in the Oval Office with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy turned into an all-out brawl of words, with President Donald Trump warning the European leader that he is “gambling with World War III.”
The escalation began after Zelenskyy repeatedly interrupted the President, delivered back-handed remarks, and backed out of agreeing to a ceasefire in front of reporters.
Vice President JD Vance admonished the Ukrainian President for showing clear disrespect to the United States and its leadership.
“Do you think that it’s respectful to come to the Oval Office of the United States of America and attack the administration that is trying to prevent the destruction of your country?” Vance cautioned after being questioned by Zelenskyy in the public briefing.
Zelenskyy fired back with a warning to the United States, insisting that while America has “a nice ocean” separating them from the war with Russia as opposed to Europe, “you will feel it in the future.”
“Don’t tell us what we’re going to feel,” Trump responded strongly. “We’re trying to solve a problem… Remember this: you’re in no position to dictate what we’re going to feel… You’re right now, not in a very good position. You don’t have the cards right now with us.”
“I’m not playing cards right now,” Zelenskyy rebuked, later scolding the American leaders for “speak[ing] very loudly.”
“You are playing cards,” Trump asserted. “You’re gambling with the lives of millions of people. You’re gambling with World War III, and what you’re doing is very disrespectful to the country, this country…”
Zelenskyy was also heard calling Vance a “b!tch” in Ukrainian.
Trump then commenced to show Zelenskyy door and had them ushered straight out of the WH.
Trump says Zelensky can “come back when he is ready.” “We had a very meaningful meeting in the White House today. Much was learned that could never be understood without conversation under such fire and pressure. It’s amazing what comes out through emotion, and I have determined that President Zelenskyy is not ready for Peace if America is involved, because he feels our involvement gives him a big advantage in negotiations. I don’t want advantage, I want PEACE. He disrespected the United States of America in its cherished Oval Office. He can come back when he is ready for Peace.”
***
Zelensky in an interview with Fox News.
He says he doesn’t think he did anything wrong during the exchange with Trump and therefore doesn’t feel the need to apologize to him.
The ultimate question, as Baier rightly asked, is how does this all end? Zelenskyy’s response was nothing short of stunning: “I think Europe is ready to help us with financing a big army... now we want just to find a place for our biggest strategic partner. We don’t have enough weapon to push them out and we don’t see now very big volume of new support from the United States, with all due respect, again. With security guarantee, we will be ready.”
This shows a breathtaking lack of self-awareness. Trump has long made it clear he has no interest in being Ukraine’s bank to fund an endless war that Ukraine can’t win. As Trump said in the meeting, without the aid and military equipment from the United States, the war would have ended in two weeks—and not to Ukraine’s benefit.
One thing is for sure: This is not 2022, and Americans are no longer interested in spending billions of dollars to fund Ukraine’s war effort, and yet he still wants more money.
***
“Trump had largely acquiesced to a very Ukraine-friendly deal over the last few days (including lowering the repayment amount to just $90 billion). The negotiations were over. All the Ukrainian president had to do was show up, shake hands, smile for the cameras, and sign the deal. Zelensky attempt to lecture Trump and Vance for the cameras was an ego move that he didn’t have the leverage to pull off.
By trying to embarrass and undermine the U.S. president in public, he destroyed an already frayed relationship. In doing so, he might have cost his country its war. “
OBSERVATION - Unbelievable and hard to even figure out where to begin.
Zelensky decided it’d be a great idea to try to publicly embarrass Trump and Vice President JD Vance in front of the press. He was way out of his league.
The minerals deal was a block in the efforts to end the war, giving the US a level of skin in the game that could be leveraged against putin / Russia. Zelensky wanted more blank checks for the war.
Now the ball is squarely in Europe’s court, Trump has told them time and again they have to step up for their defense needs and now it is go time for them. I don’t think Trump had this outcome planned or desired, but that is one of his goals.
Domestically, expect shrieking and gnashing of teeth by the globalists / neocons over how we’ve surrendered to Russia or something similar.
ONE LAST THING - Ukraine collaborated with the biden crime family in a significant manner over the past nearly 20 years, even resulting in an impeachment of Trump over investigation the biden involvement in criminal businesses. I think that Trump has attempted to be an honest broker going beyond this, but that attempt was broken by Zelensky.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures varying from single digits to the low 30s range, partly to mostly cloudy.
***
The Trump administration is considering ending all ongoing shipments of military aid to Ukraine in response to Zelensky’s remarks in the Oval Office on Friday and his perceived intransigence in the peace process, per senior administration official, - Washington Post
***
President Zelensky just got off the phone with French President Macron and now is talking to NATO secretary general Rutte.
Zelensky arrived in London this morning for high-level talks with European governments.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Beside Zelensky’s blow up at the WH -
Russia launched 154 drones. A total of 103 were shot down and another 51 were suppressed by electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 01/03/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1050 men
+11 tanks
+15 AFVs
+81 artillery pieces
+1 MLRS
+1 AD systems
+107 service vehicles
Russian drones did hit Odesa and 12 Russian suicide drones on the power plant of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
This brings into question the effectiveness of Russian drone reports.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Skudne and Burlatske of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Summary —
I stated yesterday -
“Politics of a ceasefire continue. Results of todays’ talks will be very important.”
We’ve seen the ‘results’ of yesterday’s talks. Zelensky totally screwed the pooch. The bigger issue to Ukraine is what will happen domestically from his diplomatic disaster? What impacts on the military and its morale in holding the line? Will Zelensky face impeachment/removal or a snap election?
On the front so far things have essentially stagnated, Russia has lost the initiative and momentum for the most part. Still throwing massive numbers of Shaheds.
However, monitoring to see if the lowered activity is reflective of Russia redeploying forces to focus on the Kostyantynivka sector and drawing down from the Pokrovsk sector. Russia has lost a lot of assets over the past few months and gained limited terrain in the effort, it may take a bit of time to reconstitute forces for a new offensive target.
Europe / NATO General –
With the exception of Hungary, there was a united howl of support for Ukraine by European countries and EU leadership, following Zelensky’s melt down at the WH yesterday. One of the key take aways from the event is that US is not going to continue to bankroll a war for Europeans.
Zelensky is scheduled to meet with European leaders this weekend and lick his wounds.
Key items I’m watching is to what extent European nations, primarily France, Germany and Great Britain, are willing to do at this stage. Dump even more weapons and money into the war or will they start deploying forces in country?
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hostage talks breaking down.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
State Dept just approved a $2.04 billion arms sale to Israel, including over 35,000 bombs and 4,000 bunker busters, bypassing congressional review by declaring an “emergency.” Deliveries start in 2026
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Hamas spokesman Hazem Qassem: The horizon is still available for mediators to pressure Israel to stop evading the implementation of the agreement
Hamas said on Saturday that it rejected Israel’s “formulation” of extending the first phase of the ceasefire in Gaza, on the day the first stage of the deal was set to expire.
The group’s spokesperson Hazem Qassem also told Al-Araby TV there were no current talks for a second ceasefire phase in Gaza with the group.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanon’s Beirut airport authorities seized $2.5 million in cash meant for Hezbollah from a man arriving from Turkey, reports Reuters.
Israel recently accused Turkey of cooperating with Iran to smuggle funds to Hezbollah.
***
Israel has notified Lebanon that if Hezbollah continues violating the agreement, including smuggling weapons in the Harmel area, it will launch attacks on Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, including Dahya in Beirut.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to aggressively move on terror targets in Samaria and Judea.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi leader threatens: “If the war in Gaza resumes, all of Israel – and especially Tel Aviv – will be under fire.”
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Guterres: Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, must be treated as one entity governed by a Palestinian government
Guterres: Gaza must remain an integral part of an independent, democratic and sovereign Palestinian state
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
As the dust settles with blow up with Ukraine, Israel is moving forward with its preparations for additional fighting. Hamas has totally rejected the extension of the Phase 1 conditions, and Israel will not go into Phase 2 without more hostages being released. I expect scrambling by Qatar and Egypt to get Hamas back on track, but I don’t think they’ll be successful. Probably just a few weeks before high intensity war breaks out again in Gaza.
Israel is still enraged over the treatment of hostages by Hamas and the next round of fighting will be intense and Hamas will face massive losses as they lose their ‘safe areas’ from biden’s era.
Israel is taking a more aggressive posture towards Hezbollah, giving Lebanon notice that they are not upholding their end of the deal to demilitarize Hezbollah. Targeting the Dahya district is Beirut is a very significant warning - this is the core district of Hezbollah power in the capitol, set up initially thinking that Israel would not strike it - which they were wrong. Escalation to such strikes will see attempts by Hezbollah to strike back, further granting Israel the license to hit other targets.
Syria -
Reuters: Israel is lobbying the U.S. to keep Syria weak and decentralized, including by letting Russia keep its military bases there to counter Turkey’s growing influence in the country, four sources said.