Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

This week should be wild as financial transactions are revealed and more anti-US swamp rats are exposed and sent down the road.

Globalism / Great Reset –

NGOs that enact WEF plans are going to be taking a hit as USAID and Treasury department books are reviewed.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

(FO) All 50 State Capitols
Far left activists and illegal immigrants plan “A Day Without Immigrants March”
Today, Feb 3d

Anti-ICE protesters SHUT DOWN both sides of the 101 Freeway in downtown LA.

“Whose streets? Our streets!” chants as anti-ICE and pro-immigrant demonstrators march in downtown Dallas, Texas

Seattle — Mexican nationalists and leftist open border militants shut down the streets at Alki Beach as part of the nationwide direct action against U.S. border security.

OVERALL OBSERVATION - Leftist are quickly generating traction for these protests. Violence still at a limited stage, but may become more of a problem as these protests 1) are unlikely to gain the support of the population and 2) arrests and decorations accelerate.

***
The O’Keefe Media Group is set to release undercover video of a DHS official revealing plans by DHS employees to defy newly-appointed DHS Chief Kristi Noem’s orders.
“We have a top DHS official ON TAPE revealing plans by DHS employees to defy Trump-appointed Kristi Noem’s orders,” James O’Keefe said this week.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/02/stay-tuned-omg-james-okeefe-drop-undercover-video/

OBSERVATION - Besides residing in the political, this breaches the serious CW2 realm with the pending release of open rebellion by the swamp towards duly elected and appointed leadership. Needless to say it will not end well for the insurrectionists

RELATED OBSERVATION - Like the saying goes - Follow the Money, Honey.
DOGE has gotten access to the Treasury and USAID programs and accounting - and have uncovered trillions (with a t) of dollars going to organizations that have at their heart overthrowing not only nations, but this nation in particular. Former ‘conservative’ Bill Krystol tweeted he preferred the Swamp to Trump, now has been revealed he’s been on the dole from USAID payments in the millions. NGOs getting trillions total for human trafficking illegals here in the US.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025

See “ Illegal Immigration” on Mexican cartels targeting CBP and they may expand into terror related actions in the US.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

The US dollar is surging, depressing the value of the Euro and China’s Yuan and pushing the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso to multi-year lows. Both Canada and Mexico are now at risk of recession, with nearly 80% of Mexico’s GDP and 70% of Canada’s depending on North American trade.
See also “INTERNATIONAL GENERAL” below.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The White House announced today, that additional U.S. Marines have arrived at the Guantanamo Bay Naval Base in Eastern Cuba, in order to support President Trump’s recent request to expand the Guantanamo Migrant Operations Center (GMOC) to “Full Capacity”.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The largest and most bloated bureaucracy in the history of the world has been thrown into a state of complete and utter chaos. I have no idea how all of this is going to end, but it sure is entertaining to watch. President Trump is firing people left and right, and Elon Musk is storming around Washington D.C. like a bull in a china shop. I think that the words “shock and awe” don’t even begin to describe what we are witnessing.

https://endoftheamericandream.com/the-purge-it-is-mass-carnage-as-trump-and-musk-ruthlessly-gut-corrupt-government-agency-after-corrupt-government-agency/#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - The link is to an insightful article that goes into good detail the mega-shocks that have hit the swamp over the past week!
Trump is going for the jugular hard and fast.

****
Staffers of the U.S. Agency for International Development were instructed to stay out of the agency’s Washington headquarters on Monday, according to a notice distributed to them, after billionaire Elon Musk announced President Donald Trump had agreed with him to shut the agency.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/usaid-doge-elon-musk/2025/02/03/id/1197556/

Samantha Power—one of the key members of the Deep State, ran the agency under Biden. She also doxxed many Trump associates.

***
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -FBI employees were ordered on Sunday to answer a questionnaire about any work they may have done on criminal cases related to the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, stoking fear about a fresh round of firings at the law enforcement agency.

The list of questions in the memo, seen by Reuters, direct employees to give their job title, any role they played in the investigations into the Jan. 6 riot by supporters of President Donald Trump and whether they helped supervise such investigations.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fbi-staff-ordered-reveal-role-233254240.html

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Axios reports that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio presented the President of Panama, José Raúl Mulino with an Ultimatum while meeting yesterday, that if Panama does not take “Immediate Action” to remove Chinese Influence from the Panama Canal, “then the United States will take measures necessary to protect its rights under the Torrijos–Carter Treaties.”

Secretary Marco Rubio secured an agreement from President Mulino and Foreign Minister Champma not to renew their Belt & Road Initiative agreement with China in two years when it expires.

***
Mexican Peso and Canadian Dollar Plummet After Trump’s New Tariffs. : Canadian dollar plummets to the lowest level against U.S. dollar since 2003

Illegal Immigration –

The Trump administration has officially DEPUTIZED the Texas National Guard, giving them immigration enforcement and arrest power.

***
Cartels operating at the U.S.-Mexico border are reportedly increasing their violent threats against U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and other law enforcement officers.

Recent memos sent to CBP personnel warn of social media posts encouraging violence and authorize the use of weaponized drones armed with explosives against U.S. personnel, NewsNation reports.

The memos detail intelligence reports indicating that Mexican drug cartels have authorized attacks using armed drones, raising concerns about increased violence at the border.

https://www.lifezette.com/2025/02/border-battle-escalates-cartels-target-border-patrol-with-explosive-drones-watch/

OBSERVATION - These reports have been circulating for several weeks now. In this instance, the cartels could be reaching a FAFO moment as Trump is just itching to release Special Forces and massive lethality on the cartels.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range cooling to the teens later in the week with scattered snow.

***
As of September 30, 2024, the U.S. Ukraine response funding totals nearly $183 billion, with $130.1 billion obligated and $86.7 billion disbursed.

However, Zelensky says, “We received just over 75 [billion dollars].”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/02/watch-i-dont-know-where-all-this-money/

OBSERVATION - Judgement day is coming and Ukraine stands to lose big. Zelensky stands on the edge of confirming a lot of conspiracy theories regarding the corruption of the Ukraine govt as well as kickbacks to the democrats via money laundering schemes with US tax dollars.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched Shahed drones into Ukraine. Out of 71 launched, 38 were shot down and another 25 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 03/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1300 men
+12 tanks
+18 AFVs
+51 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+3 AD systems
+89 service vehicles

General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine confirmed drone strikes at Volgograd Lukoil refinery and Astrakhan Gazprom gas processing plant

Ukrainian attack drones successfully hit Russia’s Volgograd Oil Refinery exploding and igniting major fires. NASA’s FIRMS orbital fire monitoring system shows multiple large fires across the complex.

In January 2025, Ukraine’s air defense downed over 2300 Russian aerial threats, including 31 cruise missiles (X-101, Kalibr, Iskander-K), 2 ballistic missiles (Iskander-M), 1595 Shahed drones, and 215 air targets destroyed by aviation, including command posts & tech.

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1886085443411747094?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

Summary —

War grinding on as before.
Biggest issue is the sudden discovery that Ukraine is missing a lot of $$$$.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Netanyahu in US preparing to meet with Trump on Tuesday

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump are expected to meet twice on Tuesday. A working meeting is scheduled for noon and later that evening the world leaders will have a casual dinner along with their spouses White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed at a press conference on Friday.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IDF forces continue to destroy Hezbollah terror infrastructure and weapons depots in southern Lebanon

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syrian sources: Israeli forces withdraw from military points they took control of following the fall of the Assad regime in the vicinity of the village of Al-Qahtaniyah in the Quneitra countryside

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Official IDF Announcement: As part of the counterterrorism operation in northern Samaria, the IDF and ISA scanned hundreds of structures in the area of Jenin. During the scans, explosives laboratories, weapons, observation posts, and additional terrorist infrastructure were located.
This morning (Sunday), the security forces dismantled 23 structures in which terrorist infrastructure was located.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The situation in the ME is transitioning thru debris of the biden regime and the bow wave of Trump. Tension is growing with both Hamas and Hezbollah and it is becoming increasingly unlikely that the current ceasefires will not be holding much past the deadlines.

A huge factor will be Netanyahu’s talks with Trump.

Iran –

Iran is continuing its recent wave of propaganda, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) today unveiling what they claim to be a new underground missile base on the coast of the Persian Gulf, containing anti-ship cruise missiles aimed at the Gulf nations.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1885902326600208559?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - This design was for the ‘last war’, noting that Israel would have trouble getting the bunker buster bombs to hit these targets. Things have changed - in large part a far more hostile Trump administration who for now seems more than willing to use B2’s with massive penetrating ordinance bombs that would make short order of these bunkers.

As noted before, Iran is trying to build its self up as a tough guy in the eyes of the other arab nations after suffering humiliating action against Israel and the loss of Syrian operations.

Syria -

The U.S.-led Global Coalition forces captured on Sunday an Islamic State (ISIS) leader during a nighttime air raid in the countryside of Deir ez-Zor, eastern Syria

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

Dozens of demonstrators were marching the streets of Los Angeles on the same day as a nationwide movement protesting President Donald Trump’s plans for mass deportations. Similar numbers seen at other cities across the US. No violent actions noted.

There were also business closures in support of the anti-deportation left.

OBSERVATION - Relatively low turnout, but some potential clout and traction gaining noted. I have a classmate who is a teacher, she reported that over half of her class didn’t show up yesterday - suspected out in support of the national day without immigrants.

***
FR’s Matt Bracken sending out this warning on X
“Hot kinetic Civil War dead ahead. Expand and study. Musk RT’d this, agreeing.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1886501169154957587
The deep state communist subversives formerly employed at the FBI, AID etc are not just going to meekly go away. No, they are enraged, and they will do all the damage they possibly can. Including the triggering of their kinetic wind-up toys. This time the activated wind-up toys won’t be given fake See-Four, so the feds can claim an action of terror was prevented. Now, the wind-up toys will be given live demo and ammo. Count on it. Follow
@Reddit_lies , because this war will be won or lost in the ethersphere.”

RELATED - It’s the same playbook every time. Some journalist from an activist rag publishes a hit piece, conveniently packed with personal details of their target, and within minutes, the digital mob is unleashed. The latest victims? The DOGE developers, who were doxxed and are now facing a coordinated harassment campaign from the usual corners of the internet.

The goal of these “investigations” is never just to inform—it’s to incite. The moment the names went public, leftist keyboard warriors from Reddit, Bluesky, and beyond sprang into action. Calls for violence, doxxing of family members, and outright threats flooded social media.

https://floppingaces.net/2025/02/03/they-want-blood-how-leftist-activists-are-targeting-the-doge-developers/

Leftists on @bluesky and other social media sites are mobilizing threats of violence against the @DOGE team staff and their families as revenge against @elonmusk and the Trump administration.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1886453186250125702?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

FAFO -

Acting US Attorney for DC, Ed Martin announced his office would be charging and arresting individuals who threatened Elon Musk’s DOGE team.
Ed Martin did not name any names as he announced that arrests and charges were coming. It is unclear which laws were violated.
“Our initial review of the evidence presented to us indicates that certain individuals and/or groups have committed acts that appear to violate the law in targeting DOGE employees,” Ed Martin said.
“We are in contact with the FBI and other law-enforcement partners to proceed rapidly. We also have our prosecutors preparing,” Ed Martin added.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/02/breaking-acting-dc-us-attorney-ed-martin-announces/

OBSERVATION - If you go to @Reddit_ lies, you will see your standard assortment of misfits and soy boys. What is critical is that you look deeper and see that there are some hard core elements that will take up arms and attempt to take the lives of DOGE and other Trump affiliated elements / members. Probably deeper still are Antifa and other communist elements working the crowd into a frenzy to generate foot soldiers for desired riots that they can hide within and carry out potentially lethal assaults.

Also, there have been calls in the months leading up to the election of Trump to arm up by these mentally unstable leftists.

There are plenty of loose nuts out there - not a matter of IF, it is a matter of WHEN.

Key difference at this stage - DoJ and FBI reportedly is going to be aggressive in arrest and prosecuting. The willingness of the FBI to do its job is somewhat questionable as to remaining elements of the DoJ.

Remember, when leftists / democrats don’t get their way, they get violent.

***
The DHS official caught on undercover video admitting the department will defy newly-appointed DHS Chief Kristi Noem is now under investigation and his firing is imminent.

Brandon Wright, Platform Services Manager for the Department of Homeland Security told and OMG journalist that underlings in the DHS will defy Secretary Noem.

“Kristi Noem? I f* hate her!” Brandon Wright says to the OMG journalist.
“The secretaries can set the priorities for the department, but they can’t actually tell us what to do.” We don’t agree with those priorities,” Brandon Wright said. “There’s a lot of room for interpretation in terms of how we interpret what those policies are.”

The DHS released a statement to O’Keefe Media Group and said Brandon Wright is already under investigation and his termination is imminent.
“Secretary Noem has not seen the video in its entirety. This type of behavior will not be tolerated. This person has been placed on leave and is under investigation.” The senior official also said, “The termination of the official is imminent.”

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/02/that-was-quick-dhs-official-caught-undercover-video/

OBSERVATION - DHS holdouts are not the only ones making threats. FBI agents are also threatening to ‘dig in’ and actively resist the house cleaning by Trump.

This becomes increasingly of concern, these are trigger pullers for the past regime and pose a high risk of doing something violent. They are also showing evidenced of trying to organize into something bigger.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025

See CW2 above

POLITICAL FRONT –

Honestly, folks, Trump is acting so fast, I don’t have time to keep up. Judging from democrat / leftist wailings on X and others, they are in disarray.

TRUMP Watch –

They said tariffs were a bad idea, but in just two days, Trump got Canada and Mexico to do their part protecting our common borders!

In both cases, Trump has paused the threatened tariffs as they promised additional forces to the borders to stem illegal flow into the US as well as stopping illegal drugs.

In the case of Mexico, the US is now being allowed airborne intelligence collection (RJ-135) over sovereign Mexican territory.
Probably targeting cartel activity.

Illegal Immigration –

The Trump administration is ending a deportation shield for hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans in the U.S., opening the door to them being deported — just as President Donald Trump has secured an agreement with the socialist country to take back its nationals.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) confirmed to Fox News Digital that more than 300,000 nationals protected by Temporary Protected Status (TPS) in 2023 are having their statuses revoked. The New York Times, which first reported details of the move, reported that they will lose temporary status 60 days after the government first publishes the notice.

On Saturday, Trump said that an agreement had been made with Venezuela to take back its illegal immigrants. Venezuela had started taking back illegal immigrants in 2023 but stopped in early 2024.
“…Venezuela has agreed to receive, back into their Country, all Venezuela illegal aliens who were encamped in the U.S., including gang members of Tren de Aragua,” Trump said on Truth Social.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-admin-ends-deportation-protection-massive-number-venezuelans-amid-illegal-immigration-crackdown

OBSERVATION - One after another of the Central and South American nations that initially resisted the deportations are accepting them now.

China –

China has hurriedly asked for trade negotiations following the application of a 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

OBSERVATION - I as well as others over the past couple years, have been noting that the Chinese economy is on very weak legs. They haven’t gotten their manufacturing back up to speed and the other scandals have pushed the economy to the brink of a recession. China really doesn’t want to get into a trade war against a resurgent America at this time.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range cooling to the teens later in the week with scattered snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched a total of 65 Shahed drones into Ukraine. In total, 37 were shot down and another 28 were suppressed by electronic warfare. A 100% score.

Russia launched a ballistic strike on Izyum: many injured, casualties reported. According to Kharkiv Governor Oleh Synehubov, four people were killed, and 17 were injured, five of whom were hospitalized.

Russian losses per 04/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1270 men
+18 tanks
+24 AFVs
+66 (!) artillery pieces
+1 MLRS
+123 Service vehicles

Summary —

Russian advances have slowed while casualties remain high. ISW assesses that Russian forces continued to suffer high losses in January 2025 despite a slower rate of advance as compared with previous months in late 2024.

Russia gains since December 2023 have been dismal, considering the over 500,000 casualties suffered (approaching 900K since the start of the war.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Gi3-U8AWQAAbcDx?format=png&name=900x900

The graphic displays pretty much the general failure of the Russian offensive. The question is when will the Russian generals get the backbone to tell putin they need to stop and regroup.

Action in Kursk is at a stalemate as well. Though Russia was able to initially reclaim some of the territory, Ukraine maintains a strong presence and offensive capability. Russian losses have b been so high that it appears the 9000-12000 man NK unit has been pulled - due to causalities.

Ukraine OTOH does not appear to have the additional capability to launch any other offensive actions in the near future. Their higher military structure is reportedly undergoing a restructure. Currently, Ukraine forces operate generally as separate brigades. Now Ukraine is setting up a higher level staff to better coordinate and support these separate brigades. On paper, this could enhance the capabilities significantly.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Netanyahu meeting with Trump on today

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu scheduled to meet twice with Trump today. Trump has promised to view the 45 minute documentary on the Oct 7 attack before the meetings.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Hamas claims that Israel is deliberately delaying and obstructing the entry of the most important equipments to Gaza, especially tents, prefabricated houses, fuel, and heavy equipment to remove rubble

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli army carried out bombings in the towns of Blida and Yaroun, in southern Lebanon

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

The Israel Defense Force has deployed several “Eitan” armored fighting vehicles (AFVs) to the West Bank for the first time, as they expand their counter-terror operation, dubbed “Operation Iron Wall” and taking place in a number of northern cities and towns.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Reports of Egyptian tanks and other armor in areas of the Sinai Peninsula in violation of the peace agreement with Israel.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Today’s meetings could well be pivotal in plotting out Israel’s actions in the coming weeks and months. In the cases of the ceasefires with both Hamas and Hezbollah, the likelihood of any long term peace is very unlikely. Iran continues to try to reconstruct its international image as a regional power as one means of trying to bluff Israel from further actions, while trying to keep its nuclear weapons program as far off the radar as possible.

The meetings today could be as crucial as the initial response to Oct 7.

Iran –

Over the weekend:
-Iran revealed its new ‘Etemad’ ballistic missile, which it claims has a range of 1,700 km
-The IRGC unveiled a new underground missile facility on Iran’s south coast
-Iran test-fired the Ghadr-380, an anti-ship cruise missile with a range of 1,000+ km

https://x.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1886462976506650774?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

OBSERVATION - Iran trying to rebuild its tough guy image. Though showing off new rockets/missiles, Iran is still hampered due the the lack of solid fuel molding equipment necessary for its engines, after Israel destroyed what Iran had last year.

***
“New intelligence about Iran’s nuclear program has convinced American officials that a secret team of the country’s scientists is exploring a faster, if cruder, approach to developing an atomic weapon if Tehran’s leadership decides to race for a bomb.” NYT

OBSERVATION - Many will note that the push for the development of the bomb by Iran has been imminent for a number of years now, so just another headline. I caution waving it off that easily. Conditions have changed significantly. Iran has suffered severe losses last year - Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria and harsh, undependable attacks by Israel in response to largely ineffective missile attacks by Iran. There is a new level of urgency in the Iranian regime and though the Ayatollah may still forbid the bomb, conditions could get worse and sway his fatwa in favor of it. The underlings are attempting to get to a point of rapid final actions when that word comes.

Syria -

Syria’s transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan are expected to discuss a joint defense pact in Ankara on Tuesday, including establishing Turkish airbases in central Syria and training for Syria’s new army, four sources familiar with the matter said

He also said that there is a dialogue between us and the SDF to resolve some differences, and a preparatory committee will be formed to select representatives of the Syrian people in the National Dialogue Conference

OBSERVATION - al-Sharaa owes Turkey big and is willing to cede territory for Turkey’s military. He also seems accept for now Turkey’s destabilizing the northern and eastern regions of the country where SDF kurds are keeping ISIS at bay. He has to walk a fine line in getting Turkey to back off ongoing attacks as well as convince the SDF/Kurds that he isn’t their enemy either.

Black Swans -

A series of more than 130 earthquakes, reaching up to M3.0, has been detected near the Santorini summit since January 28, 2025, prompting an emergency government meeting by the Permanent Scientific Monitoring Committee to assess potential volcanic risks.
Scientists are analyzing the data to determine whether the activity is related to magma movement or regional tectonics.

According to the Permanent Scientific Monitoring Committee of the Greek Volcanic Arc, the earthquakes are concentrated approximately 25 km (15.5 miles) northeast of Santorini, with depths ranging from 25 km to 5 km (15.5 miles to 3.1 miles).

The swarm’s location suggests the potential involvement of the Kolumbos submarine volcano, located just 6.5 km (4 miles) northeast of Santorini. Kolumbos is part of the larger Santorini volcanic complex and is known for its major eruption in 1650, which caused significant damage and fatalities due to pyroclastic flows, tsunamis, and gas emissions.

OBSERVATION - Although the volcanic complex is considered to be formed by overlapping shield volcanos (indicative of Hawaiian style eruptions) historic eruptions have been note to be exceptionally explosive. The most powerful recorded eruption, estimated at VEI 7, occurred around 1610 BCE. A major explosive eruption could trigger tsunamis and abundant ash blanketing a large area, disrupting a lot of lives and damaging property.

FYI - no post tomorrow. I’ll be having a root canal early in the morning and if I try to post, my meanderings will be ever so more muddled.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

Protests last night in front of the White House against the presence of PM Netanyahu. They were waving Hamas flags while chanting, “INTIFADA REVOLUTION! TRUMP WILL LEARN!”

***
FRs Matt Bracken is making more clear points in “X”, noting commentary regarding the current turmoil in the govt and the left’s scrambling attempts to reply as “We are well past crossing the Rubicon” in regards to a lead up to CW2 scenarios.
In this regard, Trumps lightning fast series of EOs and other actions by DOGE have hit the soft underbelly of the swamp and now on a different level, may well be developing into potential early stages of actual war. The fight has been engaged for the heart and soul of the nation and neither side is looking to surrender.

https://x.com/Matt_Bracken48/status/1886877663588933729

The potential composition of these suddenly out of power CIA, FBI, etc elements could metastasize into a coup attempt - judging from the raised voices of leftists and democrat govt ‘leaders’.

***
On the Reddit revolutionaries front, a couple of things to note. First is they have adopted as their ‘symbol’ Luigi of Mario Bros fame.
Second, they are attempting to organize protests at all 50 state capitols TODAY. We will have to see how that pans out.

RELATED - Jared May, an assistant media technician at Boston University, posted a ‘Wanted Dead or Alive’ image, openly calling for DOGE employees to be killed. Boston University has just scrubbed him from their website.

***
The LAPD has released many of the anti-deportation protestors that shut down LA freeways. No charges, no jail time.

OBSERVATION - A policy statement by the mayor against the Trump orders.

***
FCC launches probe into Soros-backed radio station that revealed live locations of undercover ICE agents

OBSERVATION - Soros’ agitators may have chosen the wrong time to attempt this effort at subversion of the deportation plan. They may have assumed ‘business as usual’ for their yellow journalism, and not faction FAFO.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
EVENT WARNING - Super Bowl Feb 9th

Concerns are growing IMHO that a hybrid act of terror that incorporates components of anti-deportation and anti-DOGE/Trump elements. Such an attack could occur in association with the Super bowl this weekend. It would bring visibility to the ‘cause’ of these leftists.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

In December 2024, the USArmy had its best recruiting number in 12 years.
In January 2025, the Army hit its best recruiting number in 15 YEARS.

OBSERVATION - What a change in leadership brings.

***
The Pentagon is drafting plans to withdraw all American troops from Syria after recent Trump comments: NBC

https://x.com/petehegseth/status/1886877495607066798?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

POLITICAL FRONT –

Pam Bondi has officially been confirmed by the Senate, making her the new U.S. attorney general. On Tuesday, the Senate confirmed Bondi in a 54-46 vote.
One Democrat, Senator John Fetterman (D-Pa.), the only Democrat official who has openly expressed that the legal cases against Trump were politically motivated, joined all Republicans in voting to confirm Bondi.

OBSERVATION - The flood gates are about to open even wider against the marxist/leftist in govt as well as out.

RELATED? Trump just called for investigations to find out who’s getting kickbacks from all the ludicrous money spent at USAID. A considerable number of democrat congress critters attempted access to the USAID building and were denied - are they concerned their grift is going to be expose?

***
Newly seated Interior Secretary Doug Burgum issued six Department of the Interior (DOI) orders on Feb. 3, his first official day in office.

Burgum’s Secretary’s Order 3417, “Addressing the National Energy Emergency,” enacts the president’s declaration of a national energy emergency through two actions.

“[The DOI] will immediately identify all emergency and legal authorities available to facilitate the identification, permitting, leasing, development, production, transportation, refining, distribution, exporting, and generation of domestic energy resources and critical minerals” the order reads.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/new-interior-chief-issues-6-orders-on-1st-day-in-office-5804139?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=TheLibertyDaily

***
The entire CIA workforce was offered a buyout as the Trump administration seeks to cut the size of the federal government, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.
A freeze in new hiring is also in place.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/cia-buyout-workforce/2025/02/04/id/1197840/

***
“5,000 FBI agents to investigate misdemeanor trespass. This is a total disgrace. It’s hard to see why the FBI should continue to exist at all.”

https://x.com/Cernovich/status/1886867245948870980

There are more than 13,000 agents and 38,000 total FBI employees.

***
DOGE is already shifting its eyes towards the Dept of Education as the next agency on its hit parade. Democrats are desperately trying to interfere and block that effort.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Trump signed an Executive Order withdrawing us from:

- UN Human Rights Council
- UNRWA
- UNESCO

OBSERVATION - These are just about one step away from totally defunding the UN and even exiting it.

***
The president of El Salvador on Monday offered to house convicted US citizens in his country’s “mega-prison” and take in deported criminal illegal migrants of any nationality after a meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Rubio, 53, said the deal struck with Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele represents “the most unprecedented, extraordinary, extraordinary migratory agreement anywhere in the world,” in remarks from the capital city of San Salvador.

“We can send them and he will put them in his jails,” the secretary of state said of migrants set to be deported from the US. “And, he’s also offered to do the same for dangerous criminals currently in custody and serving their sentences in the United States even though they’re US citizens or legal residents.”

OBSERVATION - Associated with “Illegal Immigrant” as well. Illegals - Si! American citizens - that will face severe court/constitutional challenges.

TRUMP Watch –

President Donald Trump said that he has left instructions on how the U.S. would respond if he were to be assassinated by the Iranian regime.

Trump made the comments while speaking Tuesday at a White House media briefing when a reporter asked him about the possibility of Iran assassinating him or members of his team.

“Well, they haven’t done that, and that would be a terrible thing for them to do, not because of me. If they did that, they would be obliterated,” he responded.

Illegal Immigration –

The first flight carrying detained migrants from the U.S. to Guantanamo Bay was set to head to the American naval base in Cuba, as the Trump administration undertakes the initial phases of expanding a small migrant-detention center there.

A flight Tuesday from Fort Bliss in Texas to Guantanamo, scheduled to leave in the afternoon, has roughly a dozen migrants on board, people familiar with the matter said.

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/02/guantanamo-open-for-business.php

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range cooling to the teens later in the week with scattered snow.

RUMINT –
North Korean troops are still fighting in Kursk. Ukraine’s intel chief Budanov denies NYT claims of their withdrawal due to heavy losses, The War Zone writes. 8,000 DPRK soldiers remain on the front line, though their activity has decreased.

https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1886799619998269816

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 104 Shahed drones into Ukraine of which 57 were shot down and 42 suppressed by electronic warfare. Russia also launched 4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Consequences of this strike is not yet known. Kyiv region appeared to be the main target area.

Russian losses per 05/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1140 men
+9 tanks
+12 AFVs
+52 artillery systems
+157 service vehicles

In Krasnodar Krai, Ukrainian drones struck the Albashnafta oil depot overnight. The facility has a processing capacity of up to 320,000 tons of hydrocarbons per year.

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1887052268630856147?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

In January alone, two-thirds of approximately 30 large refineries suffered from drone attacks. Assaults on Russian oil depots have been ongoing for about a year and four months.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Baranivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Kharkiv Front -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novomlynsk town in Kharkiv region of Ukraine

Summary —

Lower Russian losses equate to dailies from earlier last summer. This infers much lower numbers of attacks. Russian announcement of captured villages belies the fact that in just about every case, it has taken them the better part of a year to succeed. Note the link in yesterday’s post showing roughly how much Ukraine terrain has been captured since Dec 2023.

Ukraine’s campaign against Russian oil facelifts continues with a fair degree of success.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Netanyahu meets with Trump.

- Trump - Gaza to become a territory under US control

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Trump: The US will take over the Gaza Strip we’ll own it

OBSERVATION - I’m trying to see what’s up with this. In regards to Panama and Greenland, there is a strong “America First” incentive. Here, not so sure. But it sure has upset the apple cart of a lot of nations views towards Gaza and a “Palestinian” state.

***
Trump: There are other countries in addition to Egypt and Jordan that will accept the residents of Gaza.
Palestinians in Gaza can go to countries other than Jordan and Egypt

OBSERVATION - Both nations are on record stating that they will not accept these ‘Palestinians’ but there is strong inference that Trump may have something up his sleeve, like in the case of Egypt something like $1.5 Billion or so in aid each year.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Senior Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk has announced the group’s readiness to engage in talks with President Trump’s administration, emphasizing openness to dialogue with all international parties. This statement comes as President Trump proposes a U.S. takeover of the Gaza Strip following the resettlement of Palestinians elsewhere.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

The US will likely announce its position regarding Israeli annexation of the West Bank in the course of the coming four weeks, US President Donald Trump said during a press conference with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington on Tuesday.

“We’re discussing that with many of your representatives. You’re represented very well,” Trump said when asked whether he supported “Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria.”

“People do like the idea, but we haven’t taken a position on it yet. We’ll be making an announcement probably on that very specific topic over the next four weeks,” he noted.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-840735

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Turkiye Foreign Minister Fidan on Trump’s Gaza plan: The issue of deportation is a situation that neither the region nor we can accept. Even thinking about it is a waste of time. It is wrong to even open it up for discussion.

***
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has reiterated Britain’s support for a two-state solution, and stressed the importance of sustaining the current ceasefire in Gaza.

Asked about Trump’s plans for a US takeover of Gaza during Prime Minister’s Questions, Starmer said he was struck by recent pictures of thousands of Palestinians walking home through the Gaza rubble.

“They must be allowed home, they must be allowed to rebuild, and we should be with them in that rebuild on the way to a two-state solution,” he told the House of Commons.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Wee doggie! Has Trump sparked a lot of discussion regarding the ME. I suspect a lot of trial balloons as well as shooting ideas to see what will stick to the fridge. He has the strong hand still and is moving forward like an irresistible force. His Gaza proposal removes Hamas from the equation and puts arab nations on notice that they are going to have to step up with refugee housing - especially if they want a piece of the redevelopment action. Trump also knows he has billions of dollars in aid as leverage.

Trump also seems intent on trying to proceed to Phase 2 in the Hamas/Israel hostage and ceasefire efforts. He is a little soft on believing that it will succeed but wants to make the effort anyway.

Netanyahu OTOH seems to have stayed relatively quiet on some of these points. However, there is evidence that he is happy with the results of the talks, especially the hint that Trump will support annexation of Judea and Samaria.

There is a lot of dust that has to settle before I can see much further.

Iran –

Trump signed a “very tough” memorandum to reinstate “maximum pressure” on Iran, asserting the U.S. right to block Iran’s oil sales. He also warned that any retaliation or attempt on his life would lead to Iran being “obliterated.”

OBSERVATION - Trump has the hammer poised to do serious economic damage to Iran, who’s economy already is teetering.

Saudi Arabia –

Saudi Foreign Ministry: Crown Prince confirms that the Kingdom will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without the establishment of an independent Palestinian state

Unfortunately, things haven’t remained calm while I was on good drugs following my root canal (I really am a wuss when it comes to dental work). But the procedure went quite well.

Now to try to gather the important stuff from the last 48 hours.

Globalism / Great Reset –

USAID give $68+ million to the World Economic Forum

***
US President Donald Trump is set to issue an executive order Thursday for sanctions against the International Criminal Court (ICC), Reuters reported.
The sanctions will target individuals who assist in investigations against citizens of the US or its allies, as well as their family members.

The International Criminal Court says Trump’s executive order seeks to harm its “impartial judicial work”.

OBSERVATION - Rogue court who’s sole purpose is to advance the globalist cause.

***
In another blow to the Globalists, yesterday, Manuel Adorni, the spokesperson for the Presidency of Argentina, held a press conference where he announced that Argentina would withdraw from the World Health Organization (“WHO”). “Argentines won’t allow for an international organization to intervene in our sovereignty, much less in our health,”

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

NOTE - This weekend there is a plethora of announced protests in cities across the nation. The seem to be split between pro-Hamas and anti-deportation themes with some anti-DOGE/Trump thrown in for good measure. One can expect varying degrees of disruption - highway blockage, some violence and vandalism. Between the two, the anti-deportation protests have the highest potential for growing violent. As always, be situationally aware and avoid areas of protests.

***
Congressional leaders continue to incite violence -
Senator Ed Markey called for ‘millions of people’ to come to DC and ‘fight’.

***
Now, they are putting the flags away as the movement takes its next natural step. The Washington Free Beacon reports that a left-wing militant group, Unión del Barrio (UdB), has been offering what it calls “self-defense” training to help illegals respond to ICE raids. Using the Black Panthers as a model, UdB is trying to recruit patrols to identify ICE vehicles and personnel and drive the agents out of Latino neighborhoods.

The Free Beacon had a quote from the group’s website (which incidentally featured a photo of Cuban soldiers armed with AK-47s):

The Community Patrols are a means of building community-based power that will challenge police and migra (sic) attacks. These agencies are trained to profile, harass, detain, arrest, and brutalize our people. We are determined to build … barrio [neighborhood]-centered self-defense and prevent the detention and family separation that has taken place over the last several decades.

The objective is to organize our people in every barrio, block by block, to defend our communities from colonial violence and threats to our human and democratic rights. We intend to expose the anti-Raza [race] nature of the colonizer state that has now openly declared itself a tool to terrorize, repress, and exploit the lives and labor power of the Mexicano-Raza working class.

https://pjmedia.com/lincolnbrown/2025/02/06/militant-group-teaching-self-defense-against-ice-raids-n4936751

OBSERVATION - This is the next step up the escalation curve in the current growing war against illegal immigration. You can bet your bottom dollar marxists are working this to the max as a means to destabilize the country. The
‘self defense’ can easily be scaled up to actively attacking ICE and Fed Govt agents - even military. Also allows the mexican cartels to squeeze in because they have such a financial stake in human trafficking and drugs - these illegals and their sympathizers form their base here in the US.

RELATED -
Forward Observer reports - A self-proclaimed member of Brown Berets, a Latino immigrants rights militant and activist organization, was recently quoted in Dallas, Texas news while at an anti-ICE protest. The activist was wearing a red handkerchief covering her face, according to a news report.

- Why It Matters: The Brown Berets were initially a Latino paramilitary group established in the late 1960s during the Chicano Movement, and engaged in political activism with a notable focus on “self-defense forces” and “housing protection.” The original organization was disbanded in the 1970s, but several Brown Beret groups reemerged during 2017-2020 unrest. - Forward Observer.

***
Reddit continues to be monitored -

In the past several weeks following the Republicans’ election win, social media site Reddit has seen an unprecedented surge in violent political content and rhetoric. While calls for violence and doxxing are not in any way new to Reddit, the scale and intensity of its current discourse marks a troubling escalation, especially regarding political extremism.

Reddit’s political impact should not be underestimated. Last week, a Reddit user was arrested at the Capitol with Molotov cocktails. The user reportedly used the site to cement his plans to attack Trump’s appointees, shifting between Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and House Speaker Mike Johnson before ultimately choosing to target Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
This isn’t the first time this has happened either. Another user, Nicholas Roske, was arrested outside of Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s home with a handgun, after using Reddit to plan his attack.

Despite the original intentions of r/50501, the subreddit has become infested with agitators. It’s still unknown if these posts will have any real-world consequences, but it is clear that countless individuals are attempting to fan the flames of revolution by exploiting a series of hastily organized protests.

https://thefederalist.com/2025/02/05/in-trumps-second-term-reddit-takes-a-turn-toward-violent-extremism/

OBSERVATION - The 50501 (50 States, 50 Capitols, 1 Day) were not significantly overwhelming and in many instances poorly turned out. What is concerning as noted in the article are the growing attempts to exploit these events and try to turn the violence dial higher. The anti-ICE mood of the ‘grassroots’ is still growing and has not hit critical mass yet. But it has to be monitored. Should enough leftists manage to get the fires started, mob rule can quickly take over as these events.

Meanwhile, the rhetoric continues to push towards desiring and planning more violent actions on Redditt.

RELATED TO THE 50501 PROTESTS
Pro-illegal immigration protesters, waving progressive and Mexican flags, blocked traffic while marching through the streets of Denver.

Antifa joined with leftists and liberals in Olympia, Wash. for the Reddit-organized anti-government “50 protests” at capitals across the country. Antifa view this as an opportunity to recruit and agitate for future violence.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1887249982425559374?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Far-left extremists faced off against law enforcement outside the Georgia state capitol in Atlanta at the anti-government “50 protests” direct action. Leftists, encouraged by Democrats, are trying to show force to intimidate officials

NOTE - Here in the Redoubt state of Montana, only about a dozen or so protestors showed up at the capitol. Video of one of the protestors was so word salad that the local, left leaning local TV station has to put out a big disclaimer fact checking the nut job that was interviewed.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
EVENT WARNING - Super Bowl Feb 9th

“Do I expect violence to escalate? Absolutely, because the cartels are making record amounts of money,” Border Czar Tom Homan said in an interview last night. Homan further promised that if the cartels harm American servicemen, President Trump would “wipe them off the face of the Earth.”

OBSERVATION - I’m evaluating just how and where to put potential cartel related violence. So far, it would fall into a form of terrorism, but can also feed into CW2 anti-ICE scenario.

POLITICAL FRONT –

DOGE Employees arrived at the FBI headquarters yesterday.

***
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) would not undergo a review by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) or the Trump administration’s deferred resignation program until after tax filing season.

***
The American as well as the global political landscape is still rocking from aftershocks from the initial findings of what the USAID spent money on and in many way WHO they spent money on. Now a new major aftershock is hitting - President Trump just signed an executive order requiring an audit of all NGOs (Non-Governmental Organizations) getting federal funding.
This comes after Biden gave NGOs truckloads of taxpayer money to facilitate illegal immigration into this country. It will now come to an end!

OBSERVATION - These NGOs had absolutely no oversight once they received their ‘grants’ from USAID as well as other US agencies. Those moneys went all over the leftist sphere. This is an expansion of the case where the biden regime / deep state paid others to do their dirty work (ie illegal for the US govt to directly do) for them.

RELATED - Trump Administration plans to cut USAID’s 14,000 global workforce down to just 294 people, according to government officials. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said USAID will continue to deliver health and humanitarian aid, in spite of cuts, but complained of “rank insubordination” at the agency.

***
In a postscript to the 2024 campaign, failed presidential candidate Kamala Harris’ interview with “60 Minutes,” which aired on Oct. 7, was a disaster replete with word salads.

At the time, keen observers deduced, on the basis of major differences between Harris’ responses shown in a preview of the interview and the one presented in the final, that CBS News had engaged in deceptive edits with the apparent intention of portraying the Democrat as passably coherent ahead of the election, something the network vehemently denied.

The footage reveals that CBS News indeed went to great lengths to make Harris appear intelligible and concise — possibly with the intention of misleading viewers.

https://www.theblaze.com/news/trump-says-raw-footage-of-kamala-harris-60-minutes-interview-proves-election-interference

TRUMP Watch –

After a couple days, more clarity on Trump’s scheme regarding taking over Gaza and its clear that he is using it as a lever to get the arab nations off their rear ends and more productively engaged.

First, no troops. Trump was clear that once the “fighting was over” - indicating that Israel is likely to resume the fight and likely without being hamstrung by the US.

Second - Threat of US ownership of the projected garden spot on the Med. Yes, before 2005 and the Israeli turn over of the strip to arab control, it was a garden spot, beautiful beaches / hotel, world class hydroponics / greenhouses, etc. Trump would cut arab nations out of any of the deals and profits therein.

Third - He is exposing the hypocrisy of the arab world. They say the Israelis have created a ‘prision’ by forbidding gazan movement. They further refuse to allow any gazans to be deported to their country. Note very carefully Trump is saying ‘voluntary’ displacement of gazans until things can be rebuilt. Puts a completely different spin on stuff.

He is maneuvering the arab world into a different option rather than forcing the gazans to stay an force a second nation solution - one that has failed time and again and that even Hamas et al refuse.

One last point - these arab nations receive a lot of US aid - and with recent events, they could find themselves in serious hurt if they don’t bend on their stances. Kinda a carrot and stick principle by Trump as well.

Illegal Immigration –

Homan reveals he has FOUND OUT how ICE operation in Colorado got leaked, vows to put them in cuffs..

“We’ve already identified how this operation got leaked, I’ll deal with that today!”

OBSERVATION - As Mr T would say “I pity the fool”

Japan –

(FO) Russian Foreign Ministry officials said they see no possibility of peace talks with Japan due to Japan’s “provocative military activities with the United States and other NATO member states near our Far Eastern shores,” and support to Ukraine.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
Now nearing the end of the third year of war, support among Russians remains high. According to VTsIOM, a Russian Public Opinion Research Center, 67% back the invasion, while 65% see it as successful. Optimism peaked in March 2022 (70%) but declined as the war dragged on.

https://wciom.ru/analytical-reviews/analiticheskii-obzor/specialnaja-voennaja-operacija-na-ukraine-monitoring

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range cooling to the teens later in the week with scattered snow.

RUMINT –
Forbes: Russia may have launched a second Oreshnik ballistic missile at Ukraine today — but this one reportedly exploded over Russia

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched a huge amount of Shahed drones into Ukraine. Out of 112 launched, 81 were shot down and another 31 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 07/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1340 men
+10 tanks
+18 AFVs
+32 artillery systems
+1 AD systems
+96 service vehicles

Kursk Front -

Ukrainian forces launched a new series of battalion-sized mechanized assaults in Kursk Oblast and advanced up to five kilometers behind Russian lines southeast of Sudzha, Kursk Oblast on February 6.

Geolocated footage published on February 6 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced southeast of Sudzha along the 38K-028 Sudzha-Oboyan highway and seized Kolmakov (north of Cherkasskaya Konopelka) and Fanaseyevka (just southeast of Cherkasskaya Konopelka).

Ukrainian forces launched an attack towards Ulanok and Cherkasskaya Konopelka villages of Kursk region, reportedly penetrating over 5 KM. The attack reportedly took place during poor weather conditions that kept Russian drones grounded. Russian Ministry of Defense claims all Ukrainian attacks at were repelled

***
Russian President Vladimir Putin praised elite Russian VDV and naval infantry formations defending Kursk Oblast on February 5, highlighting the fact that the Ukrainian incursion has pinned about a combined arms army’s worth of Russian troops in Kursk Oblast since August 6, 2024.

ISW recently noted that the Russian military command has gathered around 78,000 troops, including 11,000 North Koreans and elements of most of Russia’s elite VDV and naval infantry formations, to expel Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast.

Summary —

Russia continues to throw a lot of Shahed drones at Ukraine, with very, very few reaching their targets. Russia also throws a few ballistic missiles into the mix, but no where near the pace of earlier last year. Have expected to see more N Korean and Iranian missiles in the mix by this time.

Ukraine is also successfully keeping Russia on their toes in Kursk. The latest throwing Russian forces into confusion quickly. The axis of the attack is very close to the Ukraine border, so it is possible that Ukraine could launch a supporting attack into Russian and secure even more territory.

Much of the Russian action has stagnated along the front. With Ukraine becoming more active in Kursk, support for the main efforts around Pokrovsk could become stretched.

Even with the heavy losses, some are reporting that Russian is some how managing to increase recruitment - mostly from eastern regions of Russia - to maintain the flow of bodies to the front. As the third year of fighting winds up, Russia is approaching 900,000 casualties (dead and severely wounded).

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Region still rumbling after Trump’s declaration that the US will take over Gaza once the fighting has ended.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel calling Ireland, Spain, Slovenia, Sweden, Norway and others: Can you please inform the Israeli foreign ministry in Jerusalem, which day you are sending ships to dock at the Gaza port and bring Gazans, who wish to leave to your respective countries please

***
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar announced on Wednesday that Israel would no longer participate in the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) after the US announced it would be leaving the council as well.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Syrian Military Department targets the positions of the “Hezbollah militia” in the Hermel district in Lebanon. “Military operations” control the hills surrounding the strategic village of Akkoum on the border with Lebanon

The Syrian army has captured 18 members of Hezbollah militias in battles in the border areas due to the movements of drug and arms smugglers affiliated with Hezbollah militias, including members of the Al-Zaiter family.

***
The IAF early Friday morning, with the direction of the Intelligence Directorate, conducted a precise strike in Lebanese territory on two military sites that contained Hezbollah weapons, which were in violation of the ceasefire agreement, said the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit.

It added, “The IDF continues to operate to remove any threat to the State of Israel and will prevent any attempt by the Hezbollah terrorist organization to rebuild its forces, in accordance with the ceasefire understandings.”

The IDF confirmation followed reports in Lebanese media that the IDF conducted strikes in areas in the south and east of the country, including Baalbek.

An Israeli official confirmed that Israel struck targets deep inside Lebanon in response to attempts to transfer weapons from Syria and to establish new outposts for Hezbollah.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/403546

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

See Syrian attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon above.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Intense Israeli security forces actions in the northern areas

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Jordan is prepared to declare war on Israel if Israel attempts to send Palestinians to Jordan, reports Middle East Eye.

Jordan will close its border if Palestinians begin to enter the country, and if Israel tries to reopen it, Jordan will declare war, according to the report.

https://x.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1887188797902803383?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***

Scholz: Germany strongly opposes deportation of Palestinians from Gaza

US Secretary of State: Gaza is currently ‘uninhabitable’

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Trump’s Gaza proposal has really stirred things up. But it brings to the forefront what to do with these essentially hamas indoctrinated ‘gazans’ and how to effectively clean out any remnants of Hamas influence in Gaza. It really puts the spot light on the arab nations’ staunch opposition to receiving ANY gazans. They continue to try to leverage their presence in Gaza to force a ‘two state’ solution. Trump said that the expiration date for that solution has passed and time to think out of the box.

Trump’s stance has given Israel more leverage in future ceasefire/hostage talks with Gaza. Chances are fair that fighting will resume within the next few weeks absent a substantial capitulation by Hamas.

Lebanon is on hold as well as Israel strikes ceasefire violations by Hezbollah under the noses of the Lebanese army. Keeping their steel sharp. Short a massive turn around in the attitude of the lebanese army towards Hezbollah, Israel continues to get more and more justification to hold their positions. The Lebanese army has been deeply corrupted and infiltrated by Hezbollah, so don’t count on that.

Noting Iran below and the push for nukes. Don’t write it off just because the reports are for years now that they are just weeks away. The whole geopolitical situation has turned them upside down. We are no longer pre-Oct 7.

Iran –

Two conflicting reports on Iran’s nuclear weapons program were disclosed this week. Both reports offer important insight into just how Tehran is speeding up work on nuclear weapons…The US Intelligence briefing says that Iran is trying to develop a nuclear weapon “faster” although the resulting weapon will be “cruder.” US intelligence attaches a caveat to its new information, declaring that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has not made a decision to develop a nuclear weapon.

Two conflicting reports on Iran’s nuclear weapons program were disclosed this week. Both reports offer important insight into just how Tehran is speeding up work on nuclear weapons.

The first report is from the New York Times which says US Intelligence has new findings on Iran’s weapons program. It goes on to say that the new information was briefed to President Trump’s national security team.

The second report comes from the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). The NCRI is an anti-regime organization that operates inside Iran.

The US Intelligence briefing says that Iran is trying to develop a nuclear weapon “faster” although the resulting weapon will be “cruder.” US intelligence attaches a caveat to its new information, declaring that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has not made a decision to develop a nuclear weapon.

The New York Times does not explain how Iran could have embarked on a “cruder” weapon even though no decision has been made on going ahead by Iran’s Supreme Leader.

The NCRI paints a different picture. It says that Iran has two important nuclear facilities, one located at Sharad, which doubles as a space launch site, and the other at Semnan, that also has space launch capabilities. Both towns are east of Tehran.

Both US Intelligence and the NCRI reports converge on one important aspect of weapons design and development.

The US Intelligence Report suggests that Iran has not progressed rapidly enough to develop a weapon that can be launched on an intermediate range ballistic missile. Reading between the lines, that means Iran’s effort at miniaturizing a small enough warhead has not yet borne fruit.

A small size nuclear warhead would be fueled by plutonium (which Iranian nuclear reactors can manufacture). Plutonium bombs require a high level of engineering and special electronics to create the implosion around the plutonium core required for a successful bomb.

https://asiatimes.com/2025/02/iran-speeding-up-work-on-its-nukes-two-new-reports-say/

OBSERVATION - Additional good details and observations at link. As I’ve pointed out numerous times it is one thing to get a functional nuclear weapon - “crude” - and would be similar to the Hiroshima bomb - very heavy (9,700 lbs.), questionable reliability and difficult to deliver to a target. (Note — a crude bomb will likely be some what smaller given modern materials) This is where the concerns of a bomb being smuggled in a shipping container (or even a ship) come from for instance. Iran has nothing that can ferry such a payload otherwise.

The higher technological hurdle is to be able to shrink the warhead to a size its current ballistic missiles can carry. This could be accelerated via support being received from Russia, N Korea and even potentially Pakistan.

With Iran sitting wounded by Israel and its losses in Syria, Lebanon and even Gaza is dangerous. Status quo is no more and the only thing holding it back is the mullah’s decree of no nukes. Intelligence is pointing to the efforts of the IRGC to be ready to light the fuse once that fatwah is removed.

***
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Friday that if the United States violated the Islamic Republic’s security, it, in turn, would do the same to the US.

“If they threaten us, we will threaten them. If they actuate that threat, we will actuate ours. If they violate our nation’s security, we will violate their security without a doubt,” Khamenei said.

The Iranian dictator also said that experience has proven that talks with the United States are “not smart, wise or honorable.”

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-841105

OBSERVATION - The Ayatollah is believing his own propaganda.

***
Iran on Thursday unveiled and inaugurated its first ever drone-carrier warship, which features a 180-meter long runway for UAVS, and which is capable of carry several helicopters.

Manned by the elite paramilitary Revolutionary Guard’s navy (IRGC), the vessel is dubbed Shahid Bagheri, and is further capable of launching cruise missiles.

Iran’s military and media is touting that the ship is able to travel “independently” across the globe’s oceans for up to one year, and it can go up to 22,000 nautical miles without needing to refuel in ports.

The vessel began its life as a commercial ship, and was overhauled and completely re-outfitted for as a drone carrier.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-inaugurates-first-ever-drone-carrier-warship-persian-gulf

OBSERVATION - Neat little toy, but won’t last long in a real fight. Virtually no on board defense and no ‘carrier escorts’. On the high sea it would suffer even worse - acting ‘independently’ means it would become reef fish habitat very quickly.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

Alert again - mostly anti-DOGE, anti-ICE and anti-Israel protests in about 30 cities across the country this weekend. Local conditions likely dictate the extent of violence. Previous protests have caused traffic chaos, and some fighting with police. Leftist agitators seeking an event that they can use to further inflame the passions of the masses.

***
Inflammatory comments and actions by many democrat house and senate members trying to stir up anger in their constituents and promote violence at the level of the Floyd riots. While it does inflame the mind-numbed democrat sheeple, I’m not sure how much traction it is gaining with the rest of the country given the transparency and absolute flood of fraud, waste and abuse already uncovered by DOGE.

***
Muddled meanderings over the past three weeks of trump 47. By all evidence and reactions, I don’t think the left had any clue as to the extent and speed with which Trump has executed his plans to drain the swamp. I suspect many in the swamp anticipated some degree of assault, but figured that they could ride it out and that things would revert to the way they were as 45. Now they see they were very wrong and in open panic mode.

This is evidenced by calls from congressional representatives for open fighting in the streets in some means. Crazy shrieking reps trying to protect their grift and associated political clout.

At this stage, one could even begin to characterize the situation as transitioning from a ‘cold’ to a ‘warm’ CW2 scenario. The stakes are unbelievably high as Trump pushes quickly and effectively to rip the funding from the left and regain control of the Executive Branch. It is absolutely scary to this old goat what may be uncovered in other branches as this purge moves forward.

The left hasn’t popped smoke and run away - yet - nor do I expect them. Too much is at stake for them. The calls for violence and murder of Trump and members of his administration point to a more sinister component. As I noted in a previous post, there are a lot of trigger pullers in the FBI/DoJ and other weaponized agencies that may take up the leftist/marxist call for essentially a coup against Trump. In reality, some of these FBI agents already ousted are threatening ‘resistance’ right now.

Now, many - too many - of these alphabet agencies have really been weaponized. One recent example is the SWAT team like group within the EPA! Post Office, IRS and others as well. Is this a plan B or C in the event the swamp loses control?

Right now, the left is losing control. Their option of a astroturfed Floyd riots is hurt because money is being cut off, so they may have to false flag something. Get the riots going while the hired guns who’ve been fired work behind the scenes for a coup strike.

My God, I hope I’m wrong, but given all that has taken place over the past decade and what has been uncovered by DOGE so far, this scenario is not too far out of reach.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
EVENT WARNING - Super Bowl Feb 9th

Trump is to attend the Super Bowl in person - expect increased security as well as a potential attempt on his life.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

Democrats are threatening to sabotage any and all future funding legislation even if it throws the country into a recession.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

About 500 additional 10th Mountain Division soldiers will be deploying to the U.S. southern border to support a mission to secure the area and “protect the territorial integrity” of the border with Mexico as called for by President Donald J. Trump, the post announced Wednesday.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

Evidence that USAID set up payments and funded gain of function research on Covid in 2014. Remember, Fauci has been put under a blanket pardon for actions 2014 to present. Hmmmm

POLITICAL FRONT –

The CBO just revealed that Congress spent $516 billion in 2024 on programs with expired authorizations, some dating back over 40 years.

Despite rules against funding unauthorized programs, lawmakers ignored them—letting billions flow without updated approvals or oversight.

Even worse, 251 more authorizations are set to expire this year, including $892 billion in defense spending, yet Congress keeps writing blank checks.

OBSERVATION - The Congressional Budget Office is suppose to be the system to prevent this kind of waste - and if it had been doing its job DOGE would not be necessary. Total lack of accountability and control.

***
Congress critters from the left have been going bat-guano crazy over the past few days over the auditing of govt agencies by DOGE. Many of these nut jobs are coming close to incitement of violence which can get them arrested. When in the Capitol, they can make these calls with immunity under the debate clause. However, outside the House and Senate they no longer have that protection.

***
It has been announced that DOGE will be cueing up on there Dept of Defense - an organization that has failed 7 consecutive audits. Lots of $10K toilet seats, etc out there and the waste could be unbelievable.

Contracting will be another biggie. My experience in the military has seen systems going thru the standard procurement system becoming outrageously expensive and delayed. Whereas Special Forces were allowed to by pass the standard procurement system and have similar systems already deployed, doing a better job / capability at a fraction of the price.

****
Several preliminary injunctions against budget freezes and termination of federal employees, but these have yet to be tried in full court.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump has removed the security clearance of biden, referring to both the DoJ investigation of biden’s mishandling of classified documents - being mentally incapable of securing the secrets he would be hearing as well as pay back for pulling trump’s clearance in 2021.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024

Apple has secretly been asked by the UK government to provide a back door to the encrypted information on all iPhones including those belonging to Americans.

Security officials in the United Kingdom have demanded that Apple create a back door allowing them to retrieve all the content any Apple user worldwide has uploaded to the cloud, people familiar with the matter told The Washington Post.

The British government’s undisclosed order, issued last month, requires blanket capability to view fully encrypted material, not merely assistance in cracking a specific account, and has no known precedent in major democracies…

The office of the Home Secretary has served Apple with a document called a technical capability notice, ordering it to provide access under the sweeping U.K. Investigatory Powers Act of 2016, which authorizes law enforcement to compel assistance from companies when needed to collect evidence, the people said.

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2025/02/07/the-uk-secretly-asked-apple-for-access-to-all-encrypted-accounts-n3799620

OBSERVATION - Could also consider this under WEF/Globalism as well. Overreach of govt intrusion - especially over US citizens.

Illegal Immigration –

More high threat illegals are arriving at Gitmo even as facilities are being prepared to handle as many as 30K. In the US, detention facilities are beyond capacity and federal prisons being utilized now for holding facilities.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

Russian Personnel Issues –-

Roscosmos head Yuri Borisov was reportedly fired by Vladimir Putin because of the failures of the Oreshnik ballistic missile and other space projects. Russia’s space industry is suspected to have been crippled by corruption; Borisov may face charges.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range cooling to the teens later in the week with scattered snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reports on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 139 launched, 67 were shot down and 71 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Ukrainian UAVs attacked two oil pumping stations near Chertkovo in the Rostov region, reportedly damaging administrative buildings. Drones also struck an oil refinery in the Volgograd region.

Russian sources claim a total of 36 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight of which 18 in the Rostov region.

Russian losses per 08/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1210 men
+6 tanks
+22 AFVs
+35 artillery systems
+2 MLRS
+95 service vehicles

The HQ of Russia’s 35th Motorized Brigade in Selydove, Donetsk region was hit by Ukrainian forces. Russian sources report the entire command staff was killed.

Kursk Front -

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have launched a new offensive in the Kursk region,- According to the President of Ukraine, Ukrainian troops are having success in the Kursk region and have advanced 2.5 kms

As noted yesterday - some analysts put the penetration in the range of 5 Km.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Unconfirmed reports that the intensity of Russian assaults has dropped significantly, although numerically high. Inference from the sources point to heavy losses and lack of reinforcement.

This may be collaborated by reports over the past few days of Ukraine retaking some town in the area. For example, Ukraine’s 425th Separate Assault Regiment “SKALA” cleared the village of Kotlyne of Russian forces near Pokrovsk yesterday.

Summary —

Noticeable drop in reported Russian casualties for much of the past week suggests that the tempo of Russian attacks is diminishing. The up tempo of Shahed attacks continues to press to new highs. However, Ukraine air defenses have honed themselves pretty sharp against this threat, with only the occasional drone getting past.

Behind the scenes political maneuvering increasing towards some kind of ceasefire agreement. Word of a Trump plan being ‘leaked’ indicating a target date of Easter, but a lot of politics and diplomacy stand between now and then.

Kursk action continues but it looks like Ukraine for the moment has accomplished its immediate goals - hitting Russian forces quickly and pushing to new terrain. Ukraine doesn’t have the forces necessary to fully exploit the breakthroughs, but its main purpose is to drain Russian resources away from the rest of the front - and diminish those resources. So far it has been successful and the fact that it can launch battalion level assaults like this indicates Ukraine forces are still in pretty good shape.

Europe / NATO General –

This morning, the Baltic Nations of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia fully disconnected themselves from the Russian Energy Grid for the first time since the 1940’s, when the countries were still part of the Soviet Union. The three countries stopped purchasing Russian energy in 2022, after the invasion of Ukraine, with this morning’s move being mainly symbolic, as the Baltic Nations have now completely transitioned to the European Union’s Energy Grid.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hostages Or Levy, Eli Sharabi, and Ohad Ben Ami were released on Saturday after spending 491 days in captivity.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Released hostages Or Levy, Eli Sharabi, and Ohad Ben Ami crossed the border into Israeli territory on Saturday and arrived at the initial reception point after they were transferred to Israeli forces by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC).

An initial medical examination reported to Tel Aviv Sourasky Medical Center and Sheba Medical Center revealed that the former hostages were in serious condition. They appeared starved and may have lost some 30% of their overall weight.

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-841177

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IDF continues demolition of Hezbollah infrastructure in S Lebanon.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syrian attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon (See Below).

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Silence from the Houthi’s for quite some time now. IIRC, nothing since Trump took office. . . . .

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Egypt and Jordan now scrambling to address Trump’s plan to take over Gaza and invest in it.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Another hostage / prisoner exchange. Gross evidence of Red Cross impotence is seeing to the well being of these hostages.

As I noted before, these hostage show exchanges provide Israel / Mossad with a plethora of intelligence that when (not if) the current ceasefire breaks down, fire will rain on Hamas in these currently ‘safe’ zones.

Iran –

Growing concern in Iran over Trump’s new sanction plans could cause the already weak economy to collapse altogether.

Lebanon -

Fighting continues between Sunni Islamists from Syria and Shiite Islamists from Hezbollah in Lebanon. The villages on both sides of the border are becoming abandoned.

The Syrians are sending large reinforcements including columns of tanks to secure mountainous area south of Haweek, seized yesterday.

This area included many Hezbollah infrastructure, including the largest known tunnel (length: 3,500 m) dug for this purpose of transporting weapons from Syria to Lebanon. It’s located 3.7 km S. of Haweek. Its entrance was destroyed by Israel during the war.

OBSERVATION - Separating out from under the Israel category - becoming its own beast. A lot of old scores to settle.

Syria -

See Lebanon fighting above

Mexico -

U.S. Air Force RC-135V “Rivet Joint” Signal Intelligence aircraft are doing rounds along the U.S-Mexico Border, between Nee Mexico and Texas. 3 other intelligence platforms are currently patrolling the border, watching the cartels.

OBSERVATION - We will soon see if these cartels can quickly tighten their SIGSEC and COMSEC against these platforms. We will also see if our platforms can quickly alter ops to deal with a low intensity conflict scenario - including the rest of the intel chain.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Floating out there in the background is continued fallout from the exposure of how USAID has been funding WEF and globalist efforts.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

Cross between Political and CW -

Manhattan-based District Judge has just removed Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent from his authority over the Treasury Department; blocked any political appointee from accessing records within the Treasury Department; blocked any “special appointee” of President Trump from records within Treasury; and demanded that all information previously extracted be destroyed.

The emergency injunction was signed by District Judge Paul Engelmayer in Manhattan, determined without any input from the Trump administration and applies until Friday, February 14, 2025, when U.S. District Judge Jeannette A. Vargas will hear the full arguments of the lawsuit.

Engelmayer’s order is legally indefensible. He cites no statutory basis because none exists. He offers no constitutional rationale because the Constitution directly contradicts him. Instead, he fabricates a fiction: that the duly appointed Treasury Secretary is nothing more than a ceremonial figurehead, akin to a powerless monarch, while unelected bureaucrats—who answer to no voters—control the nation’s finances. This is judicial tyranny masquerading as jurisprudence.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/02/08/leftist-lawfare-manhattan-judge-issues-emergency-order-removing-secretary-of-treasury-all-political-appointees-and-doge-personnel-from-federal-govt-only-bureaucrats-allowed-in-dc/

The implications are staggering. By stripping the executive branch of access to its own financial data, this ruling effectively transfers control of the federal purse to the permanent bureaucracy—the so-called “deep state.” That is a direct assault on the Constitution’s separation of powers, which vests executive authority in the elected President and his appointees, not in career government employees.

This is lawfare at its most brazen: a raw, partisan power grab dressed up in legalese. If allowed to stand, this decision sets the precedent that any left-wing judge can unilaterally strip the President of his authority and hand it to the administrative state. That is not democracy. It is not law. It is judicial dictatorship.

https://x.com/amuse/status/1888310498036416643

OBSERVATION - This ruling has created a constitutional crisis. Engelmayer’s order is legally indefensible and is unconstitutional. It has for the moment thrown up a speed bump in the auditing process being undertaken by DOGE and the Treasury Sec. The administration’s options are to ignore the ruling - which could set into play a whole lot of other lawsuits, or make an emergency appeal to over rule it (a better choice). It is currently set to expire in one week, but you can bet your bars that the left will do everything it can to extend it.

As a CW2 issue, this exposes the politically corrupt judges willing to make illegal rulings in order that the swamp can maintain power and control. This is part of the developing ‘warm’ conditions of the ongoing CW.

***
NOTE - Continuing pro-hamas, anti-DOGE and anti-ICE protests in cities across the nation this weekend. A high visibility target would be the Super bowl - especially if they plug up ways to get to the SuperDome.

Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
EVENT WARNING - Super Bowl Feb 9th

Super Bowl and associated activities situation awareness.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

January’s employment report, reflecting the mix of two administrations, produced mixed results, as Joe Biden left the Oval Office 20 days into the month and Donald Trump moved in with 11 days remaining.

The seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate edged down to 4.0% in January, compared to December’s 4.1% mark, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Friday. But, just 143,000 jobs were added, below analysts’ expectations of at least 170,000.

However, December’s increase was revised up by 51,000. Without it, job growth reported for January would’ve been 194,000, much closer to the 200,000 benchmark for monthly growth.

Both the labor force participation rate (62.6%) and the employment-population ratio (60.1%) were unchanged from December, after accounting for the annual adjustments to the population controls.

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/unemployment-rate-dips-january-job-growth-disappoints

OBSERVATION - Though saying the report is a ‘mix’ between the two administrations, it carries with it the full momentum of bidenomics.
Also, remember ever since the clinton regime, economic numbers of all kinds have been twisted to fit what ever makes the administration look good / or not good, dependent upon the party in power.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group will carry out the week-long French-hosted exercise Pacific Steller with the French CSG and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer carrier JS Kaga (DDH-184) in the Philippine Sea from Monday until Feb. 18, according to U.S. 7th Fleet and JMSDF releases on Thursday.
Exercise Pacific Steller 2025 is a multi-large-deck event (MLDE) designed to advance coordination and cooperation among French, Japanese and U.S. maritime forces, according to 7th Fleet’s release.

OBSERVATION - Exercise to show strength in the face of Chinese aggressive actions in the region.

***
Aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) pulled into Souda Bay, Greece on Thursday for a port call following 50 days in the Red Sea, USNI News has learned.

The carrier transited the Suez Canal on Monday, a Navy official confirmed to USNI News.

Destroyer USS Jason Dunham (DDG-109) accompanied the carrier to Souda Bay, according to a social media post from U.S. Fleet Forces. Carrier Air Wing 1 is embarked on the Truman Carrier Strike Group.

Destroyer USS The Sullivans (DDG-68) is in the Mediterranean Sea but did not make a port call, a Navy official told USNI News. Destroyer USS Stout (DDG-55) and cruiser USS Gettysburg (CG-64) remain in the Red Sea.

This marks the third time in more than 15 months that the U.S. has left the Red Sea without an aircraft carrier. The last time was in November when the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group left the Middle East. Four destroyers maintained the U.S. presence in the Red Sea until the Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group arrived.

OBSERVATION - This may be due in part to the ceasefire with Hezbollah and Iran struggling to get back on their feet after Israel’s drubbing of its air defense network and the loss of Syria as an operating base.

POLITICAL FRONT –

There will be a lot of democrats screeching about DOGE and the like today. Very limited market due to the Super Bowl, thank goodness.

The amount of fraud, waste and abuse uncovered so far has been staggering, and the biggest players are still coming up to bat.

TRUMP Watch –

Donald Trump has stripped security clearances from several leading Democrats, including former Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg and New York Attorney General Letitia James. Jake Sullivan, Biden’s Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco, and attorneys Andrew Weissmann, Mark Zaid and Norm Eisen are also among those to have their clearance revoked, the New York Post reports.

OBSERVATION - along with this, most if not all are banned from entering federal facilities.

Illegal Immigration –

Administration is pushing for more arrests and deportations, not being satisfied about the current progress.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the teens - 20 range. Mostly fair

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reports on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 151 launched, 70 were shot down and another 74 (including simulators) were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 09/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1460 men
+11 tanks
+20 AFVs
+24 artillery systems
+127 service vehicles

Kursk Front -

Numerous Russian attacks along the northwestern margin of the salient, with no discernible gains.

Ukraine appears to have stopped their attacks and are consolidating their new positions.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Analysts are indicating that Russia lost more troops near Pokrovsk in a month than in the entire Second Chechen War, spokesman for the Khortytsia Regional State Administration Tregubov said.

Russia had 7,000+ irreversible losses in January alone, exceeding the 6,000 officially declared in Chechnya. And that’s without storming the city.

Summary —

Moderately heavy fighting as related to casualties. Along the front, the battle lines seem to be in a more ebb and flow situation. Ukraine has taken back portions of the territory, while Russia makes minor gains elsewhere.

While still the priority by Russia, Pokrovsk seems to be stalling out. Attacks are focused on trying to bypass the city on the east and west, but Russian columns face open terrain where Ukraine’s advantage in drones and other anti-armor fire inflicts heavy casualties as they approach. Heavy January losses, in addition to heavy losses in the previous months, are hampering the assault efforts.

Also of note, Russia continues to throw massive numbers of Shahed drones at Ukraine on a daily basis, with very little to show for it. When they first appeared they revolutionized the fight. As wars go, such innovations only last for a short time as Ukraine has developed a fairly effective defense against them. Missing from these attacks are the use of more advanced systems such as cruise and ballistic missiles, though cruise missiles are suffering a similar fate as the drones.

I’ve not seen any analysis of the absence of Russian ballistic missiles, which is unusual as they should have stockpiles of N Korean and Iranian missiles along with their limited production amounts.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

Voters began casting ballots in Kosovo elections Sunday in a contest that pits combative incumbent Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s quest to stamp out Serbian influence against a fractured opposition’s vow to boost the economy. Condemned by the EU and the US over his government’s dismantling of remaining Serbian institutions in the country and ban of the Serbian Dinar, Kurti nonetheless enjoys strong popularity among Kosovars.

OBSERVATION - This region has had the potential to explode into renewed fighting in recent years, especially in provinces with high Serb populations. Russia has been in a situation over the past year where the war effort in Ukraine has prevented them from interjection of force in many regions - Syria, Armenia and here, forcing Serbia to face a fight essentially alone. Europe, in spite of the diversion of war materials to Ukraine, has held together to keep Serbia at bay as well. For its part, the Kosovo govt has walked a fine line between cracking down on Serb nationalism and giving them breathing room to vent.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- IDF pulled out of the Netzarim corridor separating S Gaza from the north.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu: We will do everything to return the hostages from Gaza safely

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Israeli Army Radio: The army has completely withdrawn from the Netzarim axis

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

An Israeli air raid targeted the 15th Brigade on the outskirts of the city of Inkhil in the northern countryside of Daraa, while drones continue to fly in the area.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

The Israeli army announces the expansion of the scope of the military operation in the northern West Bank to include Nour Shams

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The physical condition of the hostages released by Hamas is appalling, having lost about 30% of their body weight, as well as sporting other injuries. International condemnation is completely lacking. It is further estimated that more than half of the remaining hostages to be released in Phase 1 are dead.

Hamas may be crowing over the ceasefire, but Netanyahu and Mossad are taking copious notes. It is unlikely at this stage that Phase 2 will be agreed to - especially in light of the treatment of the hostages. Trump also remotely inferred that there will be more fighting before the US takes over Gaza.

Syrian attacks against Hezbollah and Lebanese army elements have created a whole new dynamic in the situation in Lebanon. Hezbollah finds itself fighting a two front war and Lebanese army support for the Israeli ceasefire in S Lebanon will be diminished. At the moment it appears the Syrian and Hezbollah forces are roughly equal and the fighting may settle down to continuous fights across the border. Syria has the edge in that it may have better supply lines from abandoned weapons/munitions (those Israel didn’t destroy) as well as from Turkey. How many Hezbollah fighters will be syphoned off from the south remains to be seen, but it does appear that over the past week Hezbollah provocations in the south have tapered off. They really cannot afford to go hot against Israel and deal with Syrian at the same time. Especially, since Iran is pretty much out of the circuit and can’t provide signifiant military support.

AFA Israel and Iran goes, things continue to simmer below the surface. Nothing really clear released from Netanyahu’s meeting with Trump. However, part of me suspects that the Trump gambit over Gaza is a big diversion to hide other aspects of the region.

Houthi’s continue to be very quiet. RUMINT is that the US is planning to really wack them some time in the near future in a way they haven’t been wacked before.

Iran –

Trump to New York Post: “I want to sign a non-nuclear agreement with Iran. If we sign an agreement, Israel will not bomb it”

Iran states that they will refuse to negotiate with Trump as long as the restored sanctions are in place.

OBSERVATION - Iran is in the toughest spot its been in decades. If they hold out on negotiations until Trump lifts sanctions, Israel will be given the green light. If Iran folds on the sanctions and offers to negotiate while they are still in place they lose face again and may see a lot of economic damage in the meantime.

Lebanon -

Clashes continue at the forests of Akum and Jarmash on the border between Syria and Lebanon between Syrian army and Hezbollah.

Lebanese army: Based on the directives of President of the Republic General Joseph Aoun, the Army Command issued orders to the military units deployed on the northern and eastern borders to respond to the sources of fire launched from Syrian territory targeting Lebanese territory. These units began responding with appropriate weapons, against the backdrop of the recent clashes during which several Lebanese regions were subjected to shelling and gunfire.

OBSERVATION - As noted under Israel, fighting may devolve into a prolonged positional battle across the border. It also strains Hezbollah and Lebanese army responses to Israel. Shia and Sunni fun and games.

Syria -

See Lebanon fighting above

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