FYI - no post tomorrow. I’ll be having a root canal early in the morning and if I try to post, my meanderings will be ever so more muddled.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
Protests last night in front of the White House against the presence of PM Netanyahu. They were waving Hamas flags while chanting, “INTIFADA REVOLUTION! TRUMP WILL LEARN!”
***
FRs Matt Bracken is making more clear points in “X”, noting commentary regarding the current turmoil in the govt and the left’s scrambling attempts to reply as “We are well past crossing the Rubicon” in regards to a lead up to CW2 scenarios.
In this regard, Trumps lightning fast series of EOs and other actions by DOGE have hit the soft underbelly of the swamp and now on a different level, may well be developing into potential early stages of actual war. The fight has been engaged for the heart and soul of the nation and neither side is looking to surrender.
https://x.com/Matt_Bracken48/status/1886877663588933729
The potential composition of these suddenly out of power CIA, FBI, etc elements could metastasize into a coup attempt - judging from the raised voices of leftists and democrat govt ‘leaders’.
***
On the Reddit revolutionaries front, a couple of things to note. First is they have adopted as their ‘symbol’ Luigi of Mario Bros fame.
Second, they are attempting to organize protests at all 50 state capitols TODAY. We will have to see how that pans out.
RELATED - Jared May, an assistant media technician at Boston University, posted a ‘Wanted Dead or Alive’ image, openly calling for DOGE employees to be killed. Boston University has just scrubbed him from their website.
***
The LAPD has released many of the anti-deportation protestors that shut down LA freeways. No charges, no jail time.
OBSERVATION - A policy statement by the mayor against the Trump orders.
***
FCC launches probe into Soros-backed radio station that revealed live locations of undercover ICE agents
OBSERVATION - Soros’ agitators may have chosen the wrong time to attempt this effort at subversion of the deportation plan. They may have assumed ‘business as usual’ for their yellow journalism, and not faction FAFO.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
EVENT WARNING - Super Bowl Feb 9th
Concerns are growing IMHO that a hybrid act of terror that incorporates components of anti-deportation and anti-DOGE/Trump elements. Such an attack could occur in association with the Super bowl this weekend. It would bring visibility to the ‘cause’ of these leftists.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
In December 2024, the USArmy had its best recruiting number in 12 years.
In January 2025, the Army hit its best recruiting number in 15 YEARS.
OBSERVATION - What a change in leadership brings.
***
The Pentagon is drafting plans to withdraw all American troops from Syria after recent Trump comments: NBC
https://x.com/petehegseth/status/1886877495607066798?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
POLITICAL FRONT –
Pam Bondi has officially been confirmed by the Senate, making her the new U.S. attorney general. On Tuesday, the Senate confirmed Bondi in a 54-46 vote.
One Democrat, Senator John Fetterman (D-Pa.), the only Democrat official who has openly expressed that the legal cases against Trump were politically motivated, joined all Republicans in voting to confirm Bondi.
OBSERVATION - The flood gates are about to open even wider against the marxist/leftist in govt as well as out.
RELATED? Trump just called for investigations to find out who’s getting kickbacks from all the ludicrous money spent at USAID. A considerable number of democrat congress critters attempted access to the USAID building and were denied - are they concerned their grift is going to be expose?
***
Newly seated Interior Secretary Doug Burgum issued six Department of the Interior (DOI) orders on Feb. 3, his first official day in office.
Burgum’s Secretary’s Order 3417, “Addressing the National Energy Emergency,” enacts the president’s declaration of a national energy emergency through two actions.
“[The DOI] will immediately identify all emergency and legal authorities available to facilitate the identification, permitting, leasing, development, production, transportation, refining, distribution, exporting, and generation of domestic energy resources and critical minerals” the order reads.
***
The entire CIA workforce was offered a buyout as the Trump administration seeks to cut the size of the federal government, The Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday.
A freeze in new hiring is also in place.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/cia-buyout-workforce/2025/02/04/id/1197840/
***
“5,000 FBI agents to investigate misdemeanor trespass. This is a total disgrace. It’s hard to see why the FBI should continue to exist at all.”
https://x.com/Cernovich/status/1886867245948870980
There are more than 13,000 agents and 38,000 total FBI employees.
***
DOGE is already shifting its eyes towards the Dept of Education as the next agency on its hit parade. Democrats are desperately trying to interfere and block that effort.
INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –
Trump signed an Executive Order withdrawing us from:
- UN Human Rights Council
- UNRWA
- UNESCO
OBSERVATION - These are just about one step away from totally defunding the UN and even exiting it.
***
The president of El Salvador on Monday offered to house convicted US citizens in his country’s “mega-prison” and take in deported criminal illegal migrants of any nationality after a meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Rubio, 53, said the deal struck with Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele represents “the most unprecedented, extraordinary, extraordinary migratory agreement anywhere in the world,” in remarks from the capital city of San Salvador.
“We can send them and he will put them in his jails,” the secretary of state said of migrants set to be deported from the US. “And, he’s also offered to do the same for dangerous criminals currently in custody and serving their sentences in the United States even though they’re US citizens or legal residents.”
OBSERVATION - Associated with “Illegal Immigrant” as well. Illegals - Si! American citizens - that will face severe court/constitutional challenges.
TRUMP Watch –
President Donald Trump said that he has left instructions on how the U.S. would respond if he were to be assassinated by the Iranian regime.
Trump made the comments while speaking Tuesday at a White House media briefing when a reporter asked him about the possibility of Iran assassinating him or members of his team.
“Well, they haven’t done that, and that would be a terrible thing for them to do, not because of me. If they did that, they would be obliterated,” he responded.
Illegal Immigration –
The first flight carrying detained migrants from the U.S. to Guantanamo Bay was set to head to the American naval base in Cuba, as the Trump administration undertakes the initial phases of expanding a small migrant-detention center there.
A flight Tuesday from Fort Bliss in Texas to Guantanamo, scheduled to leave in the afternoon, has roughly a dozen migrants on board, people familiar with the matter said.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/02/guantanamo-open-for-business.php
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range cooling to the teens later in the week with scattered snow.
RUMINT –
North Korean troops are still fighting in Kursk. Ukraine’s intel chief Budanov denies NYT claims of their withdrawal due to heavy losses, The War Zone writes. 8,000 DPRK soldiers remain on the front line, though their activity has decreased.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1886799619998269816
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 104 Shahed drones into Ukraine of which 57 were shot down and 42 suppressed by electronic warfare. Russia also launched 4 Iskander-M ballistic missiles. Consequences of this strike is not yet known. Kyiv region appeared to be the main target area.
Russian losses per 05/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1140 men
+9 tanks
+12 AFVs
+52 artillery systems
+157 service vehicles
In Krasnodar Krai, Ukrainian drones struck the Albashnafta oil depot overnight. The facility has a processing capacity of up to 320,000 tons of hydrocarbons per year.
https://x.com/noelreports/status/1887052268630856147?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
In January alone, two-thirds of approximately 30 large refineries suffered from drone attacks. Assaults on Russian oil depots have been ongoing for about a year and four months.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Baranivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Kharkiv Front -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novomlynsk town in Kharkiv region of Ukraine
Summary —
Lower Russian losses equate to dailies from earlier last summer. This infers much lower numbers of attacks. Russian announcement of captured villages belies the fact that in just about every case, it has taken them the better part of a year to succeed. Note the link in yesterday’s post showing roughly how much Ukraine terrain has been captured since Dec 2023.
Ukraine’s campaign against Russian oil facelifts continues with a fair degree of success.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu meets with Trump.
- Trump - Gaza to become a territory under US control
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Trump: The US will take over the Gaza Strip we’ll own it
OBSERVATION - I’m trying to see what’s up with this. In regards to Panama and Greenland, there is a strong “America First” incentive. Here, not so sure. But it sure has upset the apple cart of a lot of nations views towards Gaza and a “Palestinian” state.
***
Trump: There are other countries in addition to Egypt and Jordan that will accept the residents of Gaza.
Palestinians in Gaza can go to countries other than Jordan and Egypt
OBSERVATION - Both nations are on record stating that they will not accept these ‘Palestinians’ but there is strong inference that Trump may have something up his sleeve, like in the case of Egypt something like $1.5 Billion or so in aid each year.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Senior Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk has announced the group’s readiness to engage in talks with President Trump’s administration, emphasizing openness to dialogue with all international parties. This statement comes as President Trump proposes a U.S. takeover of the Gaza Strip following the resettlement of Palestinians elsewhere.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
The US will likely announce its position regarding Israeli annexation of the West Bank in the course of the coming four weeks, US President Donald Trump said during a press conference with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington on Tuesday.
“We’re discussing that with many of your representatives. You’re represented very well,” Trump said when asked whether he supported “Israeli sovereignty in Judea and Samaria.”
“People do like the idea, but we haven’t taken a position on it yet. We’ll be making an announcement probably on that very specific topic over the next four weeks,” he noted.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-840735
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Turkiye Foreign Minister Fidan on Trump’s Gaza plan: The issue of deportation is a situation that neither the region nor we can accept. Even thinking about it is a waste of time. It is wrong to even open it up for discussion.
***
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has reiterated Britain’s support for a two-state solution, and stressed the importance of sustaining the current ceasefire in Gaza.
Asked about Trump’s plans for a US takeover of Gaza during Prime Minister’s Questions, Starmer said he was struck by recent pictures of thousands of Palestinians walking home through the Gaza rubble.
“They must be allowed home, they must be allowed to rebuild, and we should be with them in that rebuild on the way to a two-state solution,” he told the House of Commons.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Wee doggie! Has Trump sparked a lot of discussion regarding the ME. I suspect a lot of trial balloons as well as shooting ideas to see what will stick to the fridge. He has the strong hand still and is moving forward like an irresistible force. His Gaza proposal removes Hamas from the equation and puts arab nations on notice that they are going to have to step up with refugee housing - especially if they want a piece of the redevelopment action. Trump also knows he has billions of dollars in aid as leverage.
Trump also seems intent on trying to proceed to Phase 2 in the Hamas/Israel hostage and ceasefire efforts. He is a little soft on believing that it will succeed but wants to make the effort anyway.
Netanyahu OTOH seems to have stayed relatively quiet on some of these points. However, there is evidence that he is happy with the results of the talks, especially the hint that Trump will support annexation of Judea and Samaria.
There is a lot of dust that has to settle before I can see much further.
Iran –
Trump signed a “very tough” memorandum to reinstate “maximum pressure” on Iran, asserting the U.S. right to block Iran’s oil sales. He also warned that any retaliation or attempt on his life would lead to Iran being “obliterated.”
OBSERVATION - Trump has the hammer poised to do serious economic damage to Iran, who’s economy already is teetering.
Saudi Arabia –
Saudi Foreign Ministry: Crown Prince confirms that the Kingdom will not establish diplomatic relations with Israel without the establishment of an independent Palestinian state
Unfortunately, things haven’t remained calm while I was on good drugs following my root canal (I really am a wuss when it comes to dental work). But the procedure went quite well.
Now to try to gather the important stuff from the last 48 hours.
Globalism / Great Reset –
USAID give $68+ million to the World Economic Forum
***
US President Donald Trump is set to issue an executive order Thursday for sanctions against the International Criminal Court (ICC), Reuters reported.
The sanctions will target individuals who assist in investigations against citizens of the US or its allies, as well as their family members.
The International Criminal Court says Trump’s executive order seeks to harm its “impartial judicial work”.
OBSERVATION - Rogue court who’s sole purpose is to advance the globalist cause.
***
In another blow to the Globalists, yesterday, Manuel Adorni, the spokesperson for the Presidency of Argentina, held a press conference where he announced that Argentina would withdraw from the World Health Organization (“WHO”). “Argentines won’t allow for an international organization to intervene in our sovereignty, much less in our health,”
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025
NOTE - This weekend there is a plethora of announced protests in cities across the nation. The seem to be split between pro-Hamas and anti-deportation themes with some anti-DOGE/Trump thrown in for good measure. One can expect varying degrees of disruption - highway blockage, some violence and vandalism. Between the two, the anti-deportation protests have the highest potential for growing violent. As always, be situationally aware and avoid areas of protests.
***
Congressional leaders continue to incite violence -
Senator Ed Markey called for ‘millions of people’ to come to DC and ‘fight’.
***
Now, they are putting the flags away as the movement takes its next natural step. The Washington Free Beacon reports that a left-wing militant group, Unión del Barrio (UdB), has been offering what it calls “self-defense” training to help illegals respond to ICE raids. Using the Black Panthers as a model, UdB is trying to recruit patrols to identify ICE vehicles and personnel and drive the agents out of Latino neighborhoods.
The Free Beacon had a quote from the group’s website (which incidentally featured a photo of Cuban soldiers armed with AK-47s):
The Community Patrols are a means of building community-based power that will challenge police and migra (sic) attacks. These agencies are trained to profile, harass, detain, arrest, and brutalize our people. We are determined to build … barrio [neighborhood]-centered self-defense and prevent the detention and family separation that has taken place over the last several decades.
The objective is to organize our people in every barrio, block by block, to defend our communities from colonial violence and threats to our human and democratic rights. We intend to expose the anti-Raza [race] nature of the colonizer state that has now openly declared itself a tool to terrorize, repress, and exploit the lives and labor power of the Mexicano-Raza working class.
OBSERVATION - This is the next step up the escalation curve in the current growing war against illegal immigration. You can bet your bottom dollar marxists are working this to the max as a means to destabilize the country. The
‘self defense’ can easily be scaled up to actively attacking ICE and Fed Govt agents - even military. Also allows the mexican cartels to squeeze in because they have such a financial stake in human trafficking and drugs - these illegals and their sympathizers form their base here in the US.
RELATED -
Forward Observer reports - A self-proclaimed member of Brown Berets, a Latino immigrants rights militant and activist organization, was recently quoted in Dallas, Texas news while at an anti-ICE protest. The activist was wearing a red handkerchief covering her face, according to a news report.
- Why It Matters: The Brown Berets were initially a Latino paramilitary group established in the late 1960s during the Chicano Movement, and engaged in political activism with a notable focus on “self-defense forces” and “housing protection.” The original organization was disbanded in the 1970s, but several Brown Beret groups reemerged during 2017-2020 unrest. - Forward Observer.
***
Reddit continues to be monitored -
In the past several weeks following the Republicans’ election win, social media site Reddit has seen an unprecedented surge in violent political content and rhetoric. While calls for violence and doxxing are not in any way new to Reddit, the scale and intensity of its current discourse marks a troubling escalation, especially regarding political extremism.
Reddit’s political impact should not be underestimated. Last week, a Reddit user was arrested at the Capitol with Molotov cocktails. The user reportedly used the site to cement his plans to attack Trump’s appointees, shifting between Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and House Speaker Mike Johnson before ultimately choosing to target Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
This isn’t the first time this has happened either. Another user, Nicholas Roske, was arrested outside of Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s home with a handgun, after using Reddit to plan his attack.
Despite the original intentions of r/50501, the subreddit has become infested with agitators. It’s still unknown if these posts will have any real-world consequences, but it is clear that countless individuals are attempting to fan the flames of revolution by exploiting a series of hastily organized protests.
OBSERVATION - The 50501 (50 States, 50 Capitols, 1 Day) were not significantly overwhelming and in many instances poorly turned out. What is concerning as noted in the article are the growing attempts to exploit these events and try to turn the violence dial higher. The anti-ICE mood of the ‘grassroots’ is still growing and has not hit critical mass yet. But it has to be monitored. Should enough leftists manage to get the fires started, mob rule can quickly take over as these events.
Meanwhile, the rhetoric continues to push towards desiring and planning more violent actions on Redditt.
RELATED TO THE 50501 PROTESTS
Pro-illegal immigration protesters, waving progressive and Mexican flags, blocked traffic while marching through the streets of Denver.
Antifa joined with leftists and liberals in Olympia, Wash. for the Reddit-organized anti-government “50 protests” at capitals across the country. Antifa view this as an opportunity to recruit and agitate for future violence.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1887249982425559374?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Far-left extremists faced off against law enforcement outside the Georgia state capitol in Atlanta at the anti-government “50 protests” direct action. Leftists, encouraged by Democrats, are trying to show force to intimidate officials
NOTE - Here in the Redoubt state of Montana, only about a dozen or so protestors showed up at the capitol. Video of one of the protestors was so word salad that the local, left leaning local TV station has to put out a big disclaimer fact checking the nut job that was interviewed.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025
EVENT WARNING - Super Bowl Feb 9th
“Do I expect violence to escalate? Absolutely, because the cartels are making record amounts of money,” Border Czar Tom Homan said in an interview last night. Homan further promised that if the cartels harm American servicemen, President Trump would “wipe them off the face of the Earth.”
OBSERVATION - I’m evaluating just how and where to put potential cartel related violence. So far, it would fall into a form of terrorism, but can also feed into CW2 anti-ICE scenario.
POLITICAL FRONT –
DOGE Employees arrived at the FBI headquarters yesterday.
***
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) would not undergo a review by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) or the Trump administration’s deferred resignation program until after tax filing season.
***
The American as well as the global political landscape is still rocking from aftershocks from the initial findings of what the USAID spent money on and in many way WHO they spent money on. Now a new major aftershock is hitting - President Trump just signed an executive order requiring an audit of all NGOs (Non-Governmental Organizations) getting federal funding.
This comes after Biden gave NGOs truckloads of taxpayer money to facilitate illegal immigration into this country. It will now come to an end!
OBSERVATION - These NGOs had absolutely no oversight once they received their ‘grants’ from USAID as well as other US agencies. Those moneys went all over the leftist sphere. This is an expansion of the case where the biden regime / deep state paid others to do their dirty work (ie illegal for the US govt to directly do) for them.
RELATED - Trump Administration plans to cut USAID’s 14,000 global workforce down to just 294 people, according to government officials. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said USAID will continue to deliver health and humanitarian aid, in spite of cuts, but complained of “rank insubordination” at the agency.
***
In a postscript to the 2024 campaign, failed presidential candidate Kamala Harris’ interview with “60 Minutes,” which aired on Oct. 7, was a disaster replete with word salads.
At the time, keen observers deduced, on the basis of major differences between Harris’ responses shown in a preview of the interview and the one presented in the final, that CBS News had engaged in deceptive edits with the apparent intention of portraying the Democrat as passably coherent ahead of the election, something the network vehemently denied.
The footage reveals that CBS News indeed went to great lengths to make Harris appear intelligible and concise — possibly with the intention of misleading viewers.
TRUMP Watch –
After a couple days, more clarity on Trump’s scheme regarding taking over Gaza and its clear that he is using it as a lever to get the arab nations off their rear ends and more productively engaged.
First, no troops. Trump was clear that once the “fighting was over” - indicating that Israel is likely to resume the fight and likely without being hamstrung by the US.
Second - Threat of US ownership of the projected garden spot on the Med. Yes, before 2005 and the Israeli turn over of the strip to arab control, it was a garden spot, beautiful beaches / hotel, world class hydroponics / greenhouses, etc. Trump would cut arab nations out of any of the deals and profits therein.
Third - He is exposing the hypocrisy of the arab world. They say the Israelis have created a ‘prision’ by forbidding gazan movement. They further refuse to allow any gazans to be deported to their country. Note very carefully Trump is saying ‘voluntary’ displacement of gazans until things can be rebuilt. Puts a completely different spin on stuff.
He is maneuvering the arab world into a different option rather than forcing the gazans to stay an force a second nation solution - one that has failed time and again and that even Hamas et al refuse.
One last point - these arab nations receive a lot of US aid - and with recent events, they could find themselves in serious hurt if they don’t bend on their stances. Kinda a carrot and stick principle by Trump as well.
Illegal Immigration –
Homan reveals he has FOUND OUT how ICE operation in Colorado got leaked, vows to put them in cuffs..
“We’ve already identified how this operation got leaked, I’ll deal with that today!”
OBSERVATION - As Mr T would say “I pity the fool”
Japan –
(FO) Russian Foreign Ministry officials said they see no possibility of peace talks with Japan due to Japan’s “provocative military activities with the United States and other NATO member states near our Far Eastern shores,” and support to Ukraine.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Now nearing the end of the third year of war, support among Russians remains high. According to VTsIOM, a Russian Public Opinion Research Center, 67% back the invasion, while 65% see it as successful. Optimism peaked in March 2022 (70%) but declined as the war dragged on.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range cooling to the teens later in the week with scattered snow.
RUMINT –
Forbes: Russia may have launched a second Oreshnik ballistic missile at Ukraine today — but this one reportedly exploded over Russia
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched a huge amount of Shahed drones into Ukraine. Out of 112 launched, 81 were shot down and another 31 were suppressed by electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 07/02/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1340 men
+10 tanks
+18 AFVs
+32 artillery systems
+1 AD systems
+96 service vehicles
Kursk Front -
Ukrainian forces launched a new series of battalion-sized mechanized assaults in Kursk Oblast and advanced up to five kilometers behind Russian lines southeast of Sudzha, Kursk Oblast on February 6.
Geolocated footage published on February 6 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently advanced southeast of Sudzha along the 38K-028 Sudzha-Oboyan highway and seized Kolmakov (north of Cherkasskaya Konopelka) and Fanaseyevka (just southeast of Cherkasskaya Konopelka).
Ukrainian forces launched an attack towards Ulanok and Cherkasskaya Konopelka villages of Kursk region, reportedly penetrating over 5 KM. The attack reportedly took place during poor weather conditions that kept Russian drones grounded. Russian Ministry of Defense claims all Ukrainian attacks at were repelled
***
Russian President Vladimir Putin praised elite Russian VDV and naval infantry formations defending Kursk Oblast on February 5, highlighting the fact that the Ukrainian incursion has pinned about a combined arms army’s worth of Russian troops in Kursk Oblast since August 6, 2024.
ISW recently noted that the Russian military command has gathered around 78,000 troops, including 11,000 North Koreans and elements of most of Russia’s elite VDV and naval infantry formations, to expel Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast.
Summary —
Russia continues to throw a lot of Shahed drones at Ukraine, with very, very few reaching their targets. Russia also throws a few ballistic missiles into the mix, but no where near the pace of earlier last year. Have expected to see more N Korean and Iranian missiles in the mix by this time.
Ukraine is also successfully keeping Russia on their toes in Kursk. The latest throwing Russian forces into confusion quickly. The axis of the attack is very close to the Ukraine border, so it is possible that Ukraine could launch a supporting attack into Russian and secure even more territory.
Much of the Russian action has stagnated along the front. With Ukraine becoming more active in Kursk, support for the main efforts around Pokrovsk could become stretched.
Even with the heavy losses, some are reporting that Russian is some how managing to increase recruitment - mostly from eastern regions of Russia - to maintain the flow of bodies to the front. As the third year of fighting winds up, Russia is approaching 900,000 casualties (dead and severely wounded).
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Region still rumbling after Trump’s declaration that the US will take over Gaza once the fighting has ended.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel calling Ireland, Spain, Slovenia, Sweden, Norway and others: Can you please inform the Israeli foreign ministry in Jerusalem, which day you are sending ships to dock at the Gaza port and bring Gazans, who wish to leave to your respective countries please
***
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar announced on Wednesday that Israel would no longer participate in the UN Human Rights Council (UNHRC) after the US announced it would be leaving the council as well.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Syrian Military Department targets the positions of the “Hezbollah militia” in the Hermel district in Lebanon. “Military operations” control the hills surrounding the strategic village of Akkoum on the border with Lebanon
The Syrian army has captured 18 members of Hezbollah militias in battles in the border areas due to the movements of drug and arms smugglers affiliated with Hezbollah militias, including members of the Al-Zaiter family.
***
The IAF early Friday morning, with the direction of the Intelligence Directorate, conducted a precise strike in Lebanese territory on two military sites that contained Hezbollah weapons, which were in violation of the ceasefire agreement, said the IDF Spokesperson’s Unit.
It added, “The IDF continues to operate to remove any threat to the State of Israel and will prevent any attempt by the Hezbollah terrorist organization to rebuild its forces, in accordance with the ceasefire understandings.”
The IDF confirmation followed reports in Lebanese media that the IDF conducted strikes in areas in the south and east of the country, including Baalbek.
An Israeli official confirmed that Israel struck targets deep inside Lebanon in response to attempts to transfer weapons from Syria and to establish new outposts for Hezbollah.
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/403546
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
See Syrian attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon above.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Intense Israeli security forces actions in the northern areas
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordan is prepared to declare war on Israel if Israel attempts to send Palestinians to Jordan, reports Middle East Eye.
Jordan will close its border if Palestinians begin to enter the country, and if Israel tries to reopen it, Jordan will declare war, according to the report.
https://x.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1887188797902803383?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
***
Scholz: Germany strongly opposes deportation of Palestinians from Gaza
US Secretary of State: Gaza is currently ‘uninhabitable’
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Trump’s Gaza proposal has really stirred things up. But it brings to the forefront what to do with these essentially hamas indoctrinated ‘gazans’ and how to effectively clean out any remnants of Hamas influence in Gaza. It really puts the spot light on the arab nations’ staunch opposition to receiving ANY gazans. They continue to try to leverage their presence in Gaza to force a ‘two state’ solution. Trump said that the expiration date for that solution has passed and time to think out of the box.
Trump’s stance has given Israel more leverage in future ceasefire/hostage talks with Gaza. Chances are fair that fighting will resume within the next few weeks absent a substantial capitulation by Hamas.
Lebanon is on hold as well as Israel strikes ceasefire violations by Hezbollah under the noses of the Lebanese army. Keeping their steel sharp. Short a massive turn around in the attitude of the lebanese army towards Hezbollah, Israel continues to get more and more justification to hold their positions. The Lebanese army has been deeply corrupted and infiltrated by Hezbollah, so don’t count on that.
Noting Iran below and the push for nukes. Don’t write it off just because the reports are for years now that they are just weeks away. The whole geopolitical situation has turned them upside down. We are no longer pre-Oct 7.
Iran –
Two conflicting reports on Iran’s nuclear weapons program were disclosed this week. Both reports offer important insight into just how Tehran is speeding up work on nuclear weapons…The US Intelligence briefing says that Iran is trying to develop a nuclear weapon “faster” although the resulting weapon will be “cruder.” US intelligence attaches a caveat to its new information, declaring that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has not made a decision to develop a nuclear weapon.
Two conflicting reports on Iran’s nuclear weapons program were disclosed this week. Both reports offer important insight into just how Tehran is speeding up work on nuclear weapons.
The first report is from the New York Times which says US Intelligence has new findings on Iran’s weapons program. It goes on to say that the new information was briefed to President Trump’s national security team.
The second report comes from the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI). The NCRI is an anti-regime organization that operates inside Iran.
The US Intelligence briefing says that Iran is trying to develop a nuclear weapon “faster” although the resulting weapon will be “cruder.” US intelligence attaches a caveat to its new information, declaring that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has not made a decision to develop a nuclear weapon.
The New York Times does not explain how Iran could have embarked on a “cruder” weapon even though no decision has been made on going ahead by Iran’s Supreme Leader.
The NCRI paints a different picture. It says that Iran has two important nuclear facilities, one located at Sharad, which doubles as a space launch site, and the other at Semnan, that also has space launch capabilities. Both towns are east of Tehran.
Both US Intelligence and the NCRI reports converge on one important aspect of weapons design and development.
The US Intelligence Report suggests that Iran has not progressed rapidly enough to develop a weapon that can be launched on an intermediate range ballistic missile. Reading between the lines, that means Iran’s effort at miniaturizing a small enough warhead has not yet borne fruit.
A small size nuclear warhead would be fueled by plutonium (which Iranian nuclear reactors can manufacture). Plutonium bombs require a high level of engineering and special electronics to create the implosion around the plutonium core required for a successful bomb.
https://asiatimes.com/2025/02/iran-speeding-up-work-on-its-nukes-two-new-reports-say/
OBSERVATION - Additional good details and observations at link. As I’ve pointed out numerous times it is one thing to get a functional nuclear weapon - “crude” - and would be similar to the Hiroshima bomb - very heavy (9,700 lbs.), questionable reliability and difficult to deliver to a target. (Note — a crude bomb will likely be some what smaller given modern materials) This is where the concerns of a bomb being smuggled in a shipping container (or even a ship) come from for instance. Iran has nothing that can ferry such a payload otherwise.
The higher technological hurdle is to be able to shrink the warhead to a size its current ballistic missiles can carry. This could be accelerated via support being received from Russia, N Korea and even potentially Pakistan.
With Iran sitting wounded by Israel and its losses in Syria, Lebanon and even Gaza is dangerous. Status quo is no more and the only thing holding it back is the mullah’s decree of no nukes. Intelligence is pointing to the efforts of the IRGC to be ready to light the fuse once that fatwah is removed.
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Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Friday that if the United States violated the Islamic Republic’s security, it, in turn, would do the same to the US.
“If they threaten us, we will threaten them. If they actuate that threat, we will actuate ours. If they violate our nation’s security, we will violate their security without a doubt,” Khamenei said.
The Iranian dictator also said that experience has proven that talks with the United States are “not smart, wise or honorable.”
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-841105
OBSERVATION - The Ayatollah is believing his own propaganda.
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Iran on Thursday unveiled and inaugurated its first ever drone-carrier warship, which features a 180-meter long runway for UAVS, and which is capable of carry several helicopters.
Manned by the elite paramilitary Revolutionary Guard’s navy (IRGC), the vessel is dubbed Shahid Bagheri, and is further capable of launching cruise missiles.
Iran’s military and media is touting that the ship is able to travel “independently” across the globe’s oceans for up to one year, and it can go up to 22,000 nautical miles without needing to refuel in ports.
The vessel began its life as a commercial ship, and was overhauled and completely re-outfitted for as a drone carrier.
OBSERVATION - Neat little toy, but won’t last long in a real fight. Virtually no on board defense and no ‘carrier escorts’. On the high sea it would suffer even worse - acting ‘independently’ means it would become reef fish habitat very quickly.
Some of the wealthiest zip codes in the country are clustered around Washington DC. I'm guessing lots of these folks have 'beach houses' much like Biden and on 'public servant pay'. Without the 'insurance policy' of being a former President like Sniffer. So yeah, good chance they'll attempt a coup. Wide eyed stupid press bimbos won't be able to save them as more people wake up to the fact the 'press' was paid off all along with online sites and drag queens.