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Threat Matrix 2025

Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla

Welcome to Threat Matrix 2025

For historical reference TM2024 link is 

https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?q=1&;page=1#1

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power


TOPICS: Government; Miscellaneous; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: threatmatrix; threats; tm
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
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To: Godzilla
Indonesia knows what its in for, but then they have hundreds of islands they can dump them on . . . .

Five of those islands are home to Komodo Dragons.

Just sayin'...

101 posted on 01/20/2025 10:37:07 AM PST by null and void (Regarding the second Trump presidency, everyone who isn’t terrified is thankful!)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

If anyone thought things would be smooth sailing with Trump in the WH again, you better rethink your view. The fight will increasingly become very vicious and we have to stay in the battle.


Globalism / Great Reset –

Among the many EOs Trump has signed, he has pulled the US out of the WHO, Paris Climate Agreements, defunded UNRWA and set sanctions on the ICC. All arms of the globalist effort to control the world.

***
“The New World Order is a very competitive World Order. And I think the new Trump Administration will underpin this … Hopefully, this New World Order is not the jungle growing back,” Borge Brende, President of the World Economic Forum, said at a recent press conference.

***
At the World Economic Forum, Olaf Scholz, the German Chancellor, just said that elon musk should know Germany/Europe’s “freedom of speech” doesn’t accept “extreme right positions.”


CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

In a third criminal direct action within 24 hours in Portland, Ore., Antifa shut down the streets in downtown following an anti-Trump rally at the waterfront.

The masked militants, who were organized with teams on foot and bicycles acting as onlookers and those who illegally halted traffic, began vandalizing property. They tried building up momentum to smash windows and start fires, as they did in 2020.

The Portland Police quickly arrived after 7 p.m. and shut down the direct action. They made a few arrests.

This criminal Antifa direct action follows the ICEgov facility attack the night before and the smashing up of the Multnomah County Elections office.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1881915324636823883?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - These actions were conducted by a relatively small turnout of Antifa supporters. Their efforts are to try to stir up similar hostile actions across the country. Should be noted that Portland Police quickly put down these flare ups.


Terrorism - HIGH THREAT *FLASHING RED* as of Jan 19, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

NOTE - I don’t think we are out of a dangerous window for a terrorism incident yet.

Cochise County deputies seized a staggering cache of 10,000 .50 BMG rounds and nearly 20,000 AK-47 rounds, found stuffed into vehicles transported by asylum seekers.

With the .50 cal rounds alone valued at $38,500, ATF and Homeland Security are leading the investigation into the high-stakes ammo haul.
Authorities are probing its source and intended destination.

OBSERVATION - Cross reference to illegal immigration and CW2. I believe it to have been bound for delivery to mexican cartel elements in the US.


Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The acting secretary of Homeland Security removed the Coast Guard commandant from her position, according to a message to the service reviewed by USNI News.

An ALCOAST, which is a message to all members of the Coast Guard, announced the relief of Adm. Linda Fagan to the service. The message did not give a reason for Fagan’s removal.

A senior Department of Homeland Security told USNI News in a statement that Fagan’s termination was due to “leadership deficiencies, operational failures, and inability to advance the strategic objectives of the U.S. Coast Guard.”
Other sources also indicate her obsession with DEI was another reason for her removal.

https://news.usni.org/2025/01/21/adm-linda-fagan-removed-as-coast-guard-commandant

***
In a Statement released earlier today by the Acting Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard, Admiral Kevin Lunday, he states that following yesterday’s Executive Orders signed President Donald J. Trump, he has directed Operational Commanders to immediately surge Cutters, Aircraft, Boats, and Specialized Forces to several Key Areas along the U.S. Maritime Border. These Areas include between Florida, Haiti, and Cuba; the Maritime Border around Alaska, Hawaii, and all other U.S. Territories; the Maritime Border between Florida and the Bahamas; the Maritime Border between the U.S. and Mexico in the Pacific; the Maritime Border between Texas and Mexico in the Gulf of America; and finally along the Rio Grande River on the Border between the U.S. and Mexico.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1881905123279958504?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA


POLITICAL FRONT –

MAGA forces have secured a beach head in the Swamp and have moved forward in a spectacular manner. It is virtually impossible to summarize all that has happened in the past few days. However, that is beyond the scope of TM - I’m looking at threats to our lives, livelihoods and freedoms in large part. And that is being reflected in the counterattacks started by the swamp to Trump’s actions in the first day of his second term.

- Numerous lawsuits have been filed by blue states, unions and ACLU
- MSM has started trotting out the lame, worn out attacks.
- Direct opposition to the release of J6 - particularly the DC gulags where reports now indicate after delaying the releases, the the Mayor is trying to force NDAs on former prisoners.
- Stiffening democrat resistance and dirty play against key cabinet positions.
Just in time for Pete Hegseth’s confirmation hearing, his brother’s ex-wife, Danielle Hegseth, came out with a wild, Kavanaugh-esque claim that Pete Hegseth, President Trump’s pick for Defense Secretary, made his second wife ‘fear for her safety.’ Except, Hegseth’s second wife completely denied the claim, and NBC News decided to run the story anyway.
Bondi’s confirmation vote held up by democrat procedural maneuvering for at least 7 days

***
We are aware by now the blanket, preemptive pardons issued by Biden. Hopefully, there is a move in congress to use the acceptance of those pardons - and the democrat noted indication that acceptance is an acknowledgement of guilt - against those J6 committee members still in congress. Admitting to a crime should disqualify them for any committees and even expulsion from congress. Hopefully, this move will gain traction.

***
The list of those NOT pardoned by biden is remarkable in itself -
- Jack Smith and his team of thugs
- Merrick Garland
- Lisa Monaco
- George Toscas
- Matthew Graves
- Chris Wray
- Steven D’Antuono
- the Vindman clan
- Gen Mark Milley’s Legal Counsel, Admiral Chris French.
- Mayorks


TRUMP Watch –

Trump is seen as continuing his assault on biden era policies today (and the rest of his term). He is maintaining the offensive and forcing the democrats into a defensive posture.


Illegal Immigration –

Entry from Mexico into the United States has been halted effective immediately, following the deactivation of the CBP (Customs and Border Protection) app just minutes after Trump’s inauguration. The app, which previously allowed Mexicans and other immigrants to schedule appointments to enter the U.S., is no longer operational.

***
WCAX-TV is reporting that a Border Patrol Agent has been shot and killed by an Illegal Immigrant on I-91 in Vermont, near the U.S-Canadian Border; with the Shooting happening within the Town of Newport in Orleans County.

Suspect was here on an expired VISA.


Phillipines –

The Philippine Coast Guard has entered its third week of actively challenging its Chinese counterparts, including a 12,000-ton “monster” China Coast Guard cutter within the country’s exclusive economic zone off Western Luzon.

Agency patrol vessels and aircraft were deployed to shadow the China Coast Guard vessel 5901 Nansha after detecting the vessel via a Canadian-provided maritime security system on Jan. 4. Since then, the Zhaotou-class large patrol ship’s persistent presence in the area has been maintained by CCG cutters 3103 and 3304. A People’s Liberation Army Navy helicopter was also reported by the Philippine Coast Guard to have overflown the area of Nansha.

In response, Manila has deployed a Coast Guard Cessna aircraft, BRP Cabra (MRRV-4409), BRP Teresa Magbanua (MRRV-9701) and BRP Gabriela Silang (OPV-8301) to monitor and actively challenge the Chinese vessels. All encounters with the monster ship 5901 and other China Coast Guard vessels have taken place within 70 nautical miles off Luzon, well within the Philippine exclusive economic zone as well as Beijing’s Nine Dash Line claim.

https://news.usni.org/2025/01/20/philippines-challenges-monster-china-coast-guard-cutter-u-s-carrier-vinson-drills-with-philippine-forces-in-south-china-sea


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30s with rain and snow.

RUMINT –
N Korean forces may have experienced 4000 KIA in recent fighting.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reports on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 99 launched, 65 were shot down and 30 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 22/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1950 men
+11 tanks
+8 AFVs
+60 artillery systems
+155 support vehicles

Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Pokrovsk.

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike against Rosneft’s Lisinskaya Oil Refinery in Voronezh Oblast for the second time this week following successful strikes on the night of January 15 to 16. Ukraine also struck the Smolensk Aviation Plant in Smolensk Oblast.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian forces made advances west of Pokrovsk in a northward direction closing in on key resupply road M-30

Kharkiv Front -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Zapadne village in Kharkiv region of Ukraine

Summary —
Russia is close to cutting off the key supply route into Pokrovsk, a move that could force Ukraine to withdraw from the town that has held off countless Russian attacks for months now. However, in doing so, Russia as created a narrow salient that could be pinched off by an effective Ukrainian counter attack.

Russia casualties suggest continued push across the front by Russia forces. I shake my head and wonder just how much longer Russia can support these levels of losses.

Russia also maintaining a very high level of Shahed attacks across Ukraine. Ukraine defenses continue to successfully hold back the flood, but some areas are getting damaged by debris.


ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Operation Iron Wall continues around Jenin

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israeli army Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi has notified Defense Minister Israel Katz that he intends to resign on March 6. Taking responsibility for the intelligence failure of Oct 7.

Trump on Monday revoked the Biden administration’s Executive Order which applied sanctions on Jewish residents of Judea and Samaria.

Recently released hostages Romi, Emily, and Doron were held in UN SHELTERS meant for civilians. The UN refuses to condemn Hamas for hiding hostages in civilian spaces.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IDF continues to destroy Hezbollah installations in S Lebanon.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

IAF observed constructing forward operating bases in the occupied buffer zone with Syria.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

The IDF “Iron Wall” operation in Jenin continues today, at least 10 terrorists have been eliminated so far.

Security Forces of the Palestinian Authority carried out a Raid earlier near Al-Razi Hospital in the City of Jenin, eliminating and arrested several Terrorists.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Attention now being fixed on Hamas elements in Samaria and Judea. In this case, IDF and the PA security forces are working together to eliminate Hamas threats. Hamas is the PA’s sworn enemy and are in a struggle to replace the PA for control of Samaria and Judea as well as opposing the PA’s move to rule over the remains of Gaza. Samaria and Judea were and still are Iran’s last stand attempts to bring terror to Israel.

The recently released hostage revelation that they were kept in UN shelters could bring an operation by Israel to circumvent the drawn out hostage release plan they are currently under. biden pretty much forced Israel to stay out of these areas, so Hamas migrated to them. If the ceasefire breaks down, I expect some lighting strike operations into these UN shelter/facilities seeking more hostages.

Trump has ordered the delivery of arms and material that biden withheld from Israel. This will substantially rearm and refit the IDF to resume operations against whatever foe rises up in the near future.

Halevi’s stepping down was expected once fighting of the current phase of Israel’s war against Iran and its proxy forces tapered off.


Syria -

The Russian evacuation of Syria continues, with the Roll-On/Roll-Off Cargo Ship, Sparta finally able to enter the Port of Tartus, roughly 24 hours after her Sister Ship, Sparta ll, also entered the Port. These ships, as well as several Amphibious-Landing Ships with the Russian Navy waiting off the Coast, will transport the remaining equipment of the Russian Military massed at the Port of Tartus, back to Russia or more likely to Libya.


Misc of Note –

Blizzard in Pensacola FL and 4 inches of snow. You wanna build a snowman . . .


102 posted on 01/22/2025 7:09:51 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Godzilla
On top of being very competitive, the New World Order is very dirty. Meaning they fight dirty, they don't fight fair, and they fight to win. And in addition to the afore mentioned, they have an endless supply of idiots to fight their battles as the Zeepers have amply demonstrated. Read what Cicero about traitors and take heed.
103 posted on 01/22/2025 7:30:06 AM PST by sport
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To: Godzilla

Thanks Godzilla


104 posted on 01/22/2025 7:48:57 AM PST by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: Godzilla

“We are aware by now the blanket, preemptive pardons issued by Biden. Hopefully, there is a move in congress to use the acceptance of those pardons - and the democrat noted indication that acceptance is an acknowledgement of guilt - against those J6 committee members still in congress. Admitting to a crime should disqualify them for any committees and even expulsion from congress. Hopefully, this move will gain traction.”

WOW!! Excellent!

Go after Shifty, Thompson, Lofgren, Raskin, Aguilar who are AFAIK all currently in office (as well as Murphy, Luria, Kinzinger and Cheney not if office) based on their accepting pardons which means they acknowledge their guilt. Expel those currently in office and never let them and those not if office to ever serve again.

If the J6 Committee accepts the pardons, they acknowledge guilt for crimes committed during their tenure and should be removed from office.

If the J6 Committee refuses the pardons, prosecute them and remove them from office.


105 posted on 01/22/2025 9:51:48 AM PST by Reddy (BO stinks)
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To: Godzilla
The list of those NOT pardoned by biden is remarkable in itself - - Jack Smith and his team of thugs - Merrick Garland - Lisa Monaco - George Toscas - Matthew Graves - Chris Wray - Steven D’Antuono - the Vindman clan - Gen Mark Milley’s Legal Counsel, Admiral Chris French. - Mayorks

I'm guessing none of the above have dirt on Biden and that's why they didn't get the pardon.

106 posted on 01/22/2025 1:25:06 PM PST by GOPJ (https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/01/here-are-25-shocking-photos-that-expose-true/)
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To: Godzilla
My suspicion regarding Red Flashing ……
Prayers am wrong but my belief is the elements wishing harm to Americans have selected their targets. I pray attacks can be thwarted. May God supply authorities the knowledge needed to protect lives. Prayers no major attacks come and prayers few lives and if possible no American lives will be lost.
107 posted on 01/23/2025 2:26:59 AM PST by no-to-illegals (The enemy has US surrounded. May God have mercy on them.)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

If anyone thought things would be smooth sailing with Trump in the WH again, you better rethink your view. The fight will increasingly become very vicious and we have to stay in the battle. Keep your powder dry.


Globalism / Great Reset –

Today, Trump will address the world’s most powerful and wealthiest people at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland. His speech will be delivered via videoconference.

Trump has openly criticized the diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives championed by the WEF.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/trump-to-deliver-virtual-address-to-leaders-at-davos-summit-5797369?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=TheLibertyDaily

OBSERVATION - Considering the policy bombs that Trump has unleashed here, the fireworks in his speech to the globalists in Davos should be spectacular.

***
We got out just in time. The WHO’s “pandemic accord” is scheduled to be finalized by May 2025, and the drafts of that agreement that we have seen so far are extremely alarming.

The move for this “pandemic accord” (not treaty) has been followed here on TM for the past couple years. In short, it rolls ‘pandemics’ into other “health emergencies” that are so vaguely and broadly defined that they would include global warming and even gun control. Signatories would effectively lose their sovereign status and be dictated to by the WHO which in turn is directed by the WEF and related UN / globalists. Losing a big fish like the US at this stage throws a serious monkey wrench in their plans - sorta. I expect it will move forward with the accord, perhaps a scaled down version - getting the preverbal camel’s nose under the tent - because other nations are wising up to the WHO goals and plans.


CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

The ATF is circumventing President Trump’s executive orders on DEI. They are hiding the DEI Chief by changing her title but not her responsibilities. Now they are calling her a Senior Executive, but keeping the same duties.

OBSERVATION - You cannot have govt agencies going rogue and blatantly disobeying the chief executive like this. And this is not the only act of disobedience to date - many others in other agencies are plotting similar.

She should be fired along with her higher ups who authorized the ‘title’ change, to try to circumvent the EO.


Terrorism - HIGH THREAT *FLASHING RED* as of Jan 19, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

NOTE - I don’t think we are out of a dangerous window for a terrorism incident yet.


Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

Entering the danger zone for hitting the debt ceiling


Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Military being organized to support the closure of the border and deportation of illegals. See “Illegal Immigration” below.


POLITICAL FRONT –

A lot of democrat counterattacks against the Trump agenda. Follow FR threads covering.


Illegal Immigration –

Making good on a key campaign promise, the administration of President Donald Trump has begun detaining illegal migrants in the sanctuary city of Denver, the Daily Mail reported.

Initial arrests began Monday not long after Trump officially took the oath of office, starting with illegal immigrants with pending criminal cases across Colorado.

John Fabbricatore, a former Denver field office director for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, praised the initial efforts.

“ICE agents are doing their job, the job they should have been doing for the last four years. This is an all-hands-on-deck situation where they are using all the agents they have at their disposal.”

He added that officials had planned the raids well in advance and had done their research on each of the people rounded up but the previous administration had prevented them from acting.

“These cases were already in the hopper. They’ve done the surveillance on them, they have good case notes, and they’re just hitting those cases that they were not allowed to hit prior,” Fabbricatore said.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/colorado-illegal-migrants-denver/2025/01/22/id/1196125/

OBSERVATION - Reports of the same in Boston and other sanctuary cities. There is a lot of low hanging fruit out there for these initial raids and deportations. The sheer magnitude of the effort makes it necessary to go at a steady, measured effort. 12 million won’t be gone any time soon, but you eat the elephant one bite at a time.

***
Acting U.S. Secretary of Defense, Robert G. Salesses has released a statement regarding the 1,500 Active-Duty Troops who are set to deploy soon to the U.S-Mexico Border, with him also confirming U.S. Transportation Command will provide Military Aircraft to support Department of Homeland Security Deportation flights of more than 5,000 illegal aliens from the San Diego, California, and El Paso, Texas Sectors detained by Customs and Border Protection. Additionally, he announces that the Department of Defense will assist with constructing both temporary and physical barriers to add additional security to curtail illegal border crossings and illicit trafficking.

US Transportation Command has been told to prepare to use US military aircraft for migrant deportation flights, according to CNN.


North/South Korea –

North Korea is set to send a new batch of soldiers within the next two months to fight in Ukraine, NYT citing Pentagon sources. The Pentagon estimates that North Korea has already lost around a third of its 11,000 soldiers in the Kursk region.

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1882054572568641662?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA


Russia -

The Kremlin says it is ready for a ‘mutually respectful’ dialogue with Trump.

US President Trump to Putin regarding: Ukraine war. “We can do it the easy way, or the hard way - and the easy way is always better”
Included in the warning is the implementation of “high levels” of tariffs and sanctions on Russia if a peace agreement is not reached in Ukraine.

OBSERVATION - Sanctions have only been marginally successful because of the globalist / leftist leadership in the WH and Europe. Trump doesn’t play by their rules. Numerous analysts note that Russia’s economy has been hammered by both the war (loss of workers and money) and sanctions. putin has been working hard to keep the facade of a good economy in place for his key support base, but that could crumble very fast.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range with scattered snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reported on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 92 launched, 57 were shot down and 27 were suppressed by electronic warfare. Three more remain active on Ukrainian territory.

In addition, Russia used 4 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles on the city of Zaporizhzia, inflicting significant damage. and killing and wounding citizens.

Russian losses per 23/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1340 men
+6 tanks
+12 AFVs
+62 artillery systems
+68 service vehicles

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Solone village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Summary —

Although Russia continues attacks across most of front, their efforts continue to be concentrated in the Pokrovsk axis. Russian efforts in the Kursk region have slowed way down recently.

Russia continues the very large Shahed attacks on a nightly basis, producing very little results. Again, Russia’s application of cruise and ballistic missiles (land and air launched) is noticeable absent and could be about time for another surge in that attack method.

On the larger scale, Trump has begun to pressure both Russia and Ukraine towards a ceasefire and eventually peace agreement. putin appears to be set fast in his demand for a Ukraine surrender, but the threat of massive sanctions and other measures may be giving him second thoughts. This may be clarified in the coming weeks, via changes in putin’s tone towards an end to the war.


ISRAEL –

——— GENERAL ——————————-

US State Department: Rubio assured Netanyahu that maintaining the United States’ unwavering support for Israel is a top priority for President Trump

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli army: Our forces continue to operate in southern Lebanon to protect our security

Israeli Foreign Minister: We are committed to the ceasefire path with Lebanon and will implement it in line with our security needs

Israel requested the US to allow its forces to stay in southern Lebanon beyond the 60 days that was agreed in the ceasefire deal, according to Israeli media

Some state department officials are pressing Israel to pull out of S Lebanon by the end of the 60 day period.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Intense, anti-hamas operations continue in and around Jenin

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Trump on Wednesday re-designated Yemen’s Houthi movement, known formally as Ansar Allah, as a “foreign terrorist organization”, the White House said. The move will impose harsher economic penalties than the Biden administration had applied on the group.

The Houthis are resonsible for 300 missile and drone attacks on Israel, attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and against U.S. warships defending the critical maritime chokepoint, since the Hamas October 7 massacre.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel is on the crest of the Trump wave and working to position itself once the transition is more settled. Top of that list is securing S Lebanon against resurgence of Hezbollah and associated threats to N Israel. Lebanon is being very slack in its part to disarm and displace Hezbollah elements that are south of the Litani River. Israel’s request to extend its occupation based on that is very legit.

Israel is keeping a tight watch on Gaza and has engaged Hamas elements that attempted to probe Israeli positions. Four more hostages are scheduled to be released this weekend as well a Hamas supplying a list of how many are still alive. At this stage of the cease fire, I expect Hamas to try to exploit the hostages for additional concessions as well as start violating the agreement in more significant ways - its their MO.

Only other loose end continues to be Iran and expected strike against its nuclear facilities. Some analysts are saying this will be sooner rather than later.


Syria -

The new Syrian government has canceled the lease agreement for the port of Tartus with Russia, which was supposed to be in effect until 2068.

In the mean time, they are permitting Russia to dock and remove their equipment from the country.


Misc of Note –

More mega fires hitting San Diego and LA areas.


108 posted on 01/23/2025 8:34:16 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

Gliding into the weekend. January is almost over!


Globalism / Great Reset –

The governing body of the International Criminal Court on Thursday expressed “its deep concern over sanctions measures against the International Criminal Court (“the Court”) and its personnel, as well as individuals and entities who assist it in investigating, arresting, detaining, or prosecuting certain individuals.”

“Sanctions can severely hamper ongoing investigations in all situations and other activities of the Court and affect the safety of victims, witnesses and sanctioned individuals,” the Assembly of States Parties said.

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-64/

OBSERVATION - ICC also crying that the sanctions could effectively cause it to be shut down due to lack of fund. Cry me a river.

***
President Donald Trump used an address Thursday to the World Economic Forum to promise global elites lower taxes if they bring manufacturing to the U.S. and threatened to impose tariffs if they don’t.

“Come make your product in America and we will give you among the lowest taxes as any nation on earth,” Trump said. “But if you don’t make your product in America, which is your prerogative, then very simply, you will have to pay a tariff — differing amounts — but a tariff, which will direct hundreds of billions of dollars and even trillions of dollars into our treasury to strengthen our economy and pay down debt under the Trump administration.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/trump-davos-tariffs/2025/01/23/id/1196227/

OBSERVATION - An emphasis US economic independence and nationalism in the face of the globalist WEF community.

RELATED - Trump confronted Bank of America boss Brian Moynihan in front of the entire world Thursday for not providing banking services to conservatives.
“I hope you start opening your bank to conservatives, because many conservatives complain that the banks are not allowing them to do business within the bank, and that included a place called Bank of America. … what you’re doing is wrong,” Trump said during a question and answer session with corporate leaders and CEOs, who were assembled on stage at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

https://americafirstreport.com/trump-criticizes-bank-of-america-boss-for-refusing-to-work-with-conservatives/

RELATED - Trump also made clear he is ending climate change policies/”Green New Deal,” withdrew from the Paris Climate Accord, ended the EV mandate and is rushing to get more fossil fuels.

***
President Trump signed an executive order yesterday banning federal agencies from creating and promoting central bank digital currencies.

OBSERVATION - CBDCs have been a growing concern among many due to the fact that it would take very little in order to ‘program’ them to be weaponized against citizens - as the globalists are pushing for.

***

Klaus Schwab, unveiled his 2025 “Risk Report” at the Davos confab. Key points -

“We must address misinformation and disinformation.”

“There are increasing divisions within societies and countries.”

“We stand at the brink of the Intelligent Age.”

“This transition carries unprecedented risks for humanity.”

“It also offers significant opportunities for a new Renaissance.”

OBSERVATION - Mis/disinformation on his front burner - how else can they mislead the masses? The other points indicate that resistance to the globalist dream is encountering turbulence as nationalism rises and people are wising up to their schemes.


CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

Hamas and Antifa actions on college campuses have made headlines, but actions have been conducted by relatively few. This is an effort to try to stir up support and emotions. In the case of hamas-supporters, the Trump EO directed towards foreign students who participate in these protest actions may soon be tested.


Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025

NOTE - Lowered on reduced threat concerns, but still remaining HIGH

See suspected cartel shooting US citizens under “Illegal Immigration” below


Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

A deadly bird flu outbreak has wreaked havoc on U.S. chicken farms, claiming the lives of over 20 million egg-laying chickens last quarter, marking the worst impact on America’s egg supply since the outbreak began in 2022.

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) data shows the staggering toll included chickens culled to contain the virus, too. This, in turn, has contributed to record-high egg prices across all production types, including conventional, cage-free, and certified organic systems, a USDA report published on Jan. 10 shows.

The latest wholesale data from Urner Barry shows that the price for a dozen eggs has jumped to a record high of $5.4, exceeding the previous peak of $4.65 set in December 2022.

OBSERVATION - Increased costs for chicken and eggs will also transfer to higher prices for foods that use poultry.


Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Acting U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert G. Salesses has ordered a halt to all social media posts from accounts linked to the Department of Defense, including branches, units, schools, recruiting, and combatant commands. According to the DoD Head of Social Media, the only exception are for posts made about the ongoing mission on the U.S-Mexican Border, with the social media stand-down expected to remain in place until Pete Hegseth is confirmed at Secretary of Defense.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1882602892965585104?s=61&t=Ca4dYBe3FZLWI7Zi7HkShg

OBSERVATION - A couple of points here. One is an OPSEC concern, the second is to stop potential anti-Trumper activity creating attempting to create discord in the military. As evidenced by other branches of the govt openly defying Trump’s EOs and the reported insurrection of some in the DoD against Trump, this has to be done.


POLITICAL FRONT –

In stripping the security clearances from the 50 signatories of the hunter computer ‘conspiracy’, President Trump had choice words -

“Federal policymakers must be able to rely on analysis conducted by the Intelligence Community and be confident that it is accurate, crafted with professionalism, and free from politically motivated engineering to affect political outcomes in the United States,”

“The signatories willfully weaponized the gravitas of the Intelligence Community to manipulate the political process and undermine our democratic institutions. This fabrication of the imprimatur of the Intelligence Community to suppress information essential to the American people during a Presidential election is an egregious breach of trust reminiscent of a third world country.”

***
(FO) House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) said House Republicans will form a new January 6th select subcommittee to investigate the events preceding and following the January 6th 2021 protests. Democrats said they will decide whether to participate in the select subcommittee based on the impact Democrats will have on or off the committee.


Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024

(FO) During a House hearing on global cyber threats yesterday, Crowdstrike’s Adam Meyers said China has achieved at least parity with other global cyber powers including the United States. Former CISA official Brandon Wales warned that China’s hacking program is now larger than all other major nations combined, and is becoming increasingly aggressive.

OBSERVATION - The biggest concern is the problems China could cause as it makes its play on Taiwan. However, any cyber attack of that magnitude would be akin to a declaration of war and may not go well for China in a longer term.


Illegal Immigration –

The Department of Justice, under new leadership following the inauguration of Donald Trump, has told legal service providers who receive federal funding to stop providing legal orientation and other work intended to support immigrants at immigration courts.

In a memo obtained by ABC News, the DOJ ordered all such legal providers on Wednesday to “stop work immediately” in those areas.

“This email is to send you notification to stop work immediately pursuant to the Executive Order on the following task orders,” the memo said. The programs listed in the memo include the Legal Orientation Program; the Immigration Court Helpdesk; the Family Group Legal Orientation Program; and the Counsel for Children Initiative.

https://abcnews.go.com/US/doj-orders-federally-funded-legal-service-providers-stop/story?id=118027656

OBSERVATION - Our govt helping illegals break the law. I expect funding to various NGOs who’ve profited from ‘handling’ groups of aliens and ‘resettling’ them across the country to be cut soon. In many instances these NGOs act a human traffickers.

***
Internal resistance in the border patrol rises it head
Another CBP leak - According to a Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) briefing obtained by the media, the Trump administration is planning to send 10,000 troops to the southern border.

***
Several American hikers were shot at yesterday in Southern California near the community of Jacumba Hot Springs, by suspected cartel smugglers who had recently crossed the U.S-Mexican Border, guiding a group of illegal immigrants through the mountains. One of the hikers suffered a gunshot wound to the leg, requiring him to be airlifted to a local hospital; while the smugglers, dressing in all-black clothing, managed to flee back across the border.

OBSERVATION - Even 35 years ago, when I was stationed in Arizona, there were areas that warned of potential violence along the border due to illegal movements (human and drugs) across the nearby border. It is areas like this that Special Forces could operate and shut down the cartels and other illegal activity. IIRC at one time decades ago, Marines were stationed in similar locations, but were pulled back eventually as risks of getting into a firefight grew more than the politicians were comfortable with.


China –

(Foreward Observer) “France is currently leading several naval exercises practicing to blockade China in response to a potential “maritime crisis,” with its Carrier Strike Group (CSG) and participation from India, Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Australia, Canada, the U.K., and America.

- The current exercise is sequentially blockading the Malacca, Sunda and Lombok straits. After Friday, France’s CSG will link up with allied forces in the Philippine Sea for maritime interoperability exercises.

- Why It Matters: This is a public message to China that disrupting the status quo of the Asia Pacific will result in a near-total regional response to shut off their economic lifeblood. The exercise is near-simultaneously cutting off the primary, secondary and tertiary straits that China might use to continue shipping during a Taiwan Strait crisis. The exercise is scheduled to be followed by multilateral exercises in the Philippine Sea, where the bulk of the fighting is likely to be, and with the appropriate regional combatants. - Forward Observer

MY OBSERVATIONS - Apart from regional naval activity defending their islands / territories claimed by China, this is the first apparent operation that looks at blockading China. That France would commit a carrier CSG to this exercise is something we should take notice of.


North/South Korea –

One report that appears to be driving NK soldiers willingness to commit to fighting in Ukraine is the promise of $2000 / month and a large payment to family if killed. These are massive payouts in comparison to the pittance they are being paid.


Russia -

RUMINT-
putin reportedly preparing to talk to Trump regarding Ukraine


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range with scattered snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reports on the downing of Shahed drones overnight. Out of 58 launched, 25 were shot down and 27 were suppressed by electronic warfare means.

Ukrainian General Staff.

+1500 men
+2 tanks
+11 AFVs
+39 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+87 service vehicles

General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed overnight drone attacks at the oil refinery in Ryazan and Kremniy El semiconductor manufacturing company in Bryansk.
Ryazan Oil Refinery saw massive series of explosions and is heavily burning, with flames rising hundreds of feet in the air.
The Kremniy EL plant in Bryansk, one of the largest microelectronics manufacturers in Russia. The plant produces parts for Iskander missile systems and Pantsir air defense systems. Previously this location has been attacked several times by Ukrainian drones

Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down 123 Ukrainian drones overnight. Mayor of Moscow says drones were shot down in Kolomna and Ramenskoye district of Moscow region

Ukrainian forces withdrew from Velyka Novosilka, preventing a full encirclement. Russian forces have planted their flag in the city center.

Summary —

The loss of Velyka Novosilka to Russia is another instance of Russia learning some lessons from the war. They have had increased success by maneuvering around strong points like this and cutting them off. In the early portions of the war, Russia would directly assault these towns, suffering massive losses. Russia adapted that attack to follow massive artillery strikes with direct assaults. With artillery resources lagging, Russia has remembered maneuvering.

Russia is currently using this tactic against Pokrovsk, and having some success. Even though maneuver has been resurrected in a manner by Russia, they are still facing massive casualties in the effort, since they are in areas with large, open areas that make them vulnerable to Ukraines drone and artillery fire - a lethal combination. But this also means that Ukraine’s defensive lines are more in the open as well, bringing them under fire as the ‘meat attacks’ play.


ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Operations in Jenin continue

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Trump implies that he doesn’t want Israel to go after Iran - yet.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah continues its demand that Israel fully withdraw from S Lebanon. Israel says no.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

IDF / PA operations in Jenin continue and are expected to last for about a week.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel is getting mixed signals from Trump and is middle east representatives. Following very loud and outspoken support for Israel, Trump appears to want Israel to throttle way back in its actions against Hamas, Hezbollah and more importantly Iran.

Why the apparent sudden shift is unknown, perhaps the thought that the current peace/ceasefire agreements may work and that there are other ways more peaceful to deal with Irans nuclear dreams.

Hamas and Hezbollah have taken advantage in their propaganda efforts to paint Israel as the loser in the conflict and that they are the big dogs in the block. Propaganda the mindless drones accept as truth.

Action in Jenin besides seeking to eliminate an insurgent development of Hamas level terrorists is aiding the PA which in large part has been a silent partner with Israel. Over the past decade or so, keeping terror down and opened up jobs in Israel and brought a level of prosperity to Judea and Samaria, helping to keep radical islam down. The past few years, with the prospect of new elections, Hamas et al have been resurrected and armed by Iran to overthrow the PA in the same manner they did in Gaza. Since the Oct 7 terror attack, terror threats have grown exponentially.

Given the choice of working with Hamas or the PA in Judea and Samaria, it is pretty clear Israel prefers the PA, and hence the effort to grind the Hamas-hased terror elements to the ground before they can take greater root.


Iran –

(FO) The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency Rafael Grossi announced yesterday that Iran had more than quadrupled its enriched uranium output from seven kilograms per month to 30kg per month. Grossi added that additional centrifuges to further enrich the uranium into a weapons grade were being installed.

OBSERVATION - The installation of centrifuges to bring uranium up to weapons grade is the red line the world has been concerned about. Iran is going to get hit this year, sooner rather than later.



109 posted on 01/24/2025 5:51:32 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Godzilla
OBSERVATION - Even 35 years ago, when I was stationed in Arizona, there were areas that warned of potential violence along the border due to illegal movements (human and drugs) across the nearby border. It is areas like this that Special Forces could operate and shut down the cartels and other illegal activity. IIRC at one time decades ago, Marines were stationed in similar locations, but were pulled back eventually as risks of getting into a firefight grew more than the politicians were comfortable with.

At that point, our troops are justified to shoot to kill. That is an armed invasion and makes it war.

110 posted on 01/24/2025 6:05:11 AM PST by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon." Amen. Come, Lord Jesus)
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To: Godzilla

Thanks Godzilla.


111 posted on 01/24/2025 7:24:09 AM PST by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: Godzilla
OBSERVATION - ICC also crying that the sanctions could effectively cause it to be shut down due to lack of fund. Cry me a river.

It's so much fun to get really good news now that President Trump's in office... nice way to start your column off...

112 posted on 01/24/2025 10:53:39 AM PST by GOPJ ( "Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm. - Winston Churchill)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 19, 2025

“It is the policy of the United States to protect its citizens from aliens who intend to commit terrorist attacks, threaten our national security, espouse hateful ideology, or otherwise exploit the immigration laws for malevolent purposes,” the order states.

That’s bad news for pro-terrorist visas holders causing trouble on college campuses by advocating for terrorist organizations like Hamas.
“The Secretary of Homeland Security shall take immediate steps to exclude or remove that alien unless she determines that doing so would inhibit a significant pending investigation or prosecution of the alien for a serious criminal offense or would be contrary to the national security interests of the United States,” the order states.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2025/01/24/pro-hamas-students-are-about-to-be-deported-n2651033#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - This order is directed to the foreign students on college campuses fomenting trouble, particularly against Jewish students. This has been a problem on many campuses lately, and recent hostile actions have been conducted in an apparent challenge to this EO.

SEE Terrorism below on developing “Cute Winter Boot” threat.


Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025

The TikTok app has a concerning hashtag being used called # cutewinterboots.

It is a deranged leftist trend on TikTok, disguised under the code “cute winter boots,” has escalated to encouraging people to buy guns to target ICE agents, share their locations, and spread information about protests against deportations and the current administration.

Videos using this hashtag are being posted by liberals all across the country who are using code words to spread information about ICE locations and where they want to meet up to organize riots and demonstrations.

When sizes of boots are discussed, they are actually speaking of types of weapons. They are also revealing locations where ICE will be in order to protect illegals.

Other topics discussed include how they will ass@ssinate certain leaders in this country, burn down buildings and houses, and go face-to-face with ICE with their selected weapons.

To see the thousands of videos about this that have been posted in just the last 48 hours. Even videos on how to construct explosive devices.

OBSERVATION - This is a developing move towards violent terrorist strikes against the US. There are enough mentally disturbed nut jobs on the left that will take this very seriously and carry out these plans and ideas.
How much drive behind this comes from leftist leadership is not certain at this time, but it is very likely they will try to exploit the move.
I’ve noted that the deportation effort will likely become a major flash point and unifying element for Antifa et al to generate violence across the country.


Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

The Federal Reserve’s first meeting of 2025 in the coming week stands to test the resurgence in U.S. stocks as investors gauge the extent of more equity-friendly interest rate cuts in the months ahead.

The Fed is broadly expected to pause its easing cycle when it gives its monetary policy statement on Wednesday, with investors instead focused on “what would need to happen for them to start talking about resuming the rate cuts,” said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones.
Given recent data indicating strong economic activity, Kourkafas said, “there’s wide expectations that the Fed has no urgency to continue cutting until we get potentially more encouraging inflation data.”

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/stocks-federal-reserve/2025/01/24/id/1196411/

The Fed’s benchmark rate stands at 4.25% to 4.5% after the central bank lowered it by a full percentage point last year. The Fed’s easing cycle began after rate hikes had helped bring down inflation from 40-year highs, although it remains above the Fed’s 2% annual target.
Fed funds futures are pricing in about 40 basis points more of easing — or nearly two more cuts — by December, according to LSEG data.

OBSERVATION - It is unlikely that the Fed is going to change its current policy of maintaining tight controls on the prime rate.


Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Increasing activity and mobilizations for border security.


POLITICAL FRONT –

NOTE - I’m not going into great detail on the massive political infighting in DC as Trump tries to get his cabinet approved and moves forward with the agenda the majority of the American people elected him to do. There are plenty of FR threads doing that. What I’m trying to do is note some key actions/activities that relate to the overall threat to the county driven by the left and in too many cases now - RINOs. Bottom line is that Trump is maintaining the offensive and being a very public face for the efforts that have garnered some pretty huge approval numbers. If the drive for cabinet and policy initiatives approvals fail in these first 100 days or so, then things could get very ugly.

Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense!
Vance had to cast tiebreaker.
There are calls to remove the three republicans who voted against him - McConnell, Collins and Murkowski - from key committees they current sit on.

Actions in DC are a swirling vortex as Trump appointees face confirmation hearings.

The federal prison system is still apparently playing games by holding some of the J6 political prisoners.


INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

The US State Department has issued a halt to nearly all existing foreign assistance and paused new aid, according to an internal memo sent to officials and US embassies abroad.

The leaked notice follows President Trump’s executive order issued on Monday for a 90-day pause in foreign development assistance pending a review of efficiencies and consistency with his foreign policy.

The United States is the world’s biggest international aid donor spending $68bn in 2023 according to government figures. The State Department notice appears to affect everything from development assistance to military aid.
It makes exceptions only for emergency food aid and for military funding for Israel and Egypt. The leaked memo’s contents have been confirmed by the BBC.

“No new funds shall be obligated for new awards or extensions of existing awards until each proposed new award or extension has been reviewed and approved,” says the memo to staff.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce9nx5k7lv0o

OBSERVATION - Note! “leaked” notice, evidence of swamp operations attempting to disrupt/discredit this order. The biden regime has tossed so much money overseas with out accountability that this is necessary.


TRUMP Watch –

Trump laid waste to newscum and LA mayor bass yesterday as they tried to justify the massive delays being set up over rebuilding the burned out neighborhoods. Bass caught fire (no pun intended) over the stated claim that it would take 18 MONTHS for homeowners to get the necessary building permits for their homes. Increased delays due to red tape from kalifornia abound. Trump cleared the deck, stating a national emergency has been declared and that permitting red tape has been cut. He essentially told newscum and bass to get off their rear ends and do the same.

A resident and reporter brought up the idea I had naming a special master to oversee the rebuilding fund. Trump thought it was such a good idea he looked to his left, where his former DNI and Ambassador to Germany Rick Grenell sat, and asked if he’d do it, or help find someone to do it. Grenell said he’d help.

newscum has ‘lost’ billions in Wuhan funding, billions in homeless funding, billions on high speed rail, so a special master is imperative.

One other note - some are saying Trump is going to abolish FEMA. I don’t think that is an accurate assessment, as all the statements I’ve seen from him indicate that any abolishing will be towards the organization and functioning of the organization to eliminate the bureaucracy that actually works to hinder recovery efforts and prolongs the suffering. The fed govt can bring a lot of major resources to the table in a disaster, but it also brings a lot of strings attached.


Illegal Immigration –

Military units from the Marines, 82d ABN and 10th MTN divisions are being deployed to the border to support security efforts. Under that overt announced deployment are at least a several dozen MP units from across the country, being mobilized to deploy to the border as well. The MP units as ‘police’ are authorized to arrest illegals as being a recognized law enforcement element. The other element’s specific missions are not stated, so they may well be part of installing barriers, etc. Some extreme speculation is that they are to be on armed patrols of the border area.

***
Mexico decided to try to play hard ball with the US yesterday by denying landing privileges to US military aircraft scheduled to carry Mexican nationals back to Mexico.

So far, neither govt has said much openly over the incident. However, the US is holding all the cards and can place serious hurt on Mexico by numerous means. We’ll see just how far the Mexican president is willing to FA before FO kicks in.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range with scattered snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense repelled a combined missile and drone attack. Out of 61 Shahed drones launched, 46 were shot down and another 15 were suppressed by electronic warfare. Russia also launched 2 Kh-59/69 cruise missiles, both were shot down.

Russian losses per 25/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1650 men
+7 tanks
+37 AFVs
+14 artillery systems
+79 service vehicles

Summary —

Moderately heavy fighting with very little gain for Russia. Shahed attacks have become more of a nuisance that an effective attack any more, as well as the use of Kh-59/69 cruise missiles.

The worlds focus remains on the political pre-game maneuvering between Trump and putin. This new Trump is forcing putin to reassess some of his smooth talking to gain some sort of an advantage over Trump. Time will tell.


ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Four hostages were released back to Israel.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Four female Israeli soldiers are now in the hands of the Israeli army after 477 days in Hamas captivity. Karina Ariev; Daniella Gilboa; Naama Levy and Liri Albag

Israel stated the four female soldier hostages that Hamas released would violate the ceasefire agreement.

The Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal stipulated that Hamas would release female civilians before soldiers.

Israeli army spokesman: Hamas violated the agreement by not releasing the detained civilians first

Hamas made a big show over turning these soldiers over to the Red Cross for transport to Israel.

***
In a letter addressed to UN Secretary-General Guterres, Israel’s Ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, outlined the rationale behind the decision, emphasizing “the acute national security risks posed by the widespread infiltration of UNRWA’s ranks by Hamas and other terrorist organizations.” He also accused the agency of failing to address Israel’s long-standing concerns and of compromising its “fundamental obligation to impartiality and neutrality beyond repair.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/israel-tells-un-it-s-shutting-down-all-unrwa-operations-in-jerusalem-acute-security-risks/ar-AA1xP51x?ocid=BingNewsSerp

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Israeli army to Gaza residents: Do not approach the buffer zone

In accordance with the agreement, Israel will not allow Gazans to cross into the northern Gaza Strip - until the release of civilian Arbel Yehud, who was supposed to be released today, is arranged. She is reportedly being held by PIJ elements in S Gaza

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The White House: “A temporary and short extension of the IDF’s presence in Lebanon beyond 60 days is urgently needed.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hostage drama continues, and Hamas may have over promised, given the apparent inability to retrieve Arbel Yehud from PIJ control. This could be the thread that unravels the cease fire agreement.

Israel’s shutting down of ALL UNRWA’s operations in Israel is well supported by recent revelations that the first set of hostages were held in UN facilities in Gaza. Of course there has been all the evidence collected of the UNRWA’s collaboration with Hamas during the course of the fighting.

Israel looks to stay in S Lebanon beyond the initial 60 day deadline, with or without permission. Lebanese military has just barely started scratching the surface of Hezbollah military stockpiles in S Lebanon and Hezbollah elements continue to operate without hinderance. Security of N Israeli citizens is one of the hard red lines Israel has set up and allowing things to slip back to a pre-Oct 7 setting just isn’t going to happen.



113 posted on 01/25/2025 7:25:04 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Godzilla

Thanks Godzilla


114 posted on 01/25/2025 7:57:25 AM PST by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: Godzilla
How much drive behind this comes from leftist leadership is not certain at this time, but it is very likely they will try to exploit the move. I’ve noted that the deportation effort will likely become a major flash point and unifying element for Antifa et al to generate violence across the country.

And totally NOT unexpected.

It was just a matter of time before the left got violent again. They've been too quiet.

115 posted on 01/25/2025 8:40:21 AM PST by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon." Amen. Come, Lord Jesus)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


Globalism / Great Reset –

A ‘pay for dates’ website has claimed that the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos set a record for the number of escorts hired by globalist elites.

Andreas Berger, spokesman for the Titt4tat paid dates platform, told the Daily Mail: “In terms of the number of bookings for commercial intimacy, it was another record year for us [at the WEF].

“Since the start of the WEF, we’ve seen around 300 women and trans women been booked in Davos and the surrounding area,” he added, saying that in comparison, the agency had around 170 bookings last year during the conference.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2025/01/25/record-number-of-female-and-trans-escorts-hired-at-wef-davos-meeting-claim/

OBSERVATION - Can anyone be surprised? The driving force behind the perversion and grooming of our children in WEF friendly schools starts at the top. Major goal is the sexualization of our children which disrupts the historic nuclear family and destroys society.


Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 24, 2025

Leftist LGBTQ+ activist Douglas Thrams, 23, of Goshen, Ind., was arrested for allegedly threatening to assassinate President Donald Trump on social media. Thrams posted videos on TikTok, making explicit threats including bombing government buildings and suggesting Trump “needs to be assassinated.”

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1883247366821577071?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA


Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The 101st Airborne Division, stationed at Fort Campbell in Kentucky, has announced that Elements of the Division, specifically the 716th Military Police Battalion, will be deployed to the U.S-Mexico Border to assist Military Forces already there, as well as Customs and Border Protection.

NOTE, as stated yesterday, a significant number of units being deployed are MPs as they have legal authority to make arrests.


Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

New C.I.A. analysis finds COVID likely originated from a lab leak

“The agency issued a new assessment this week, with analysts saying they now favor the lab theory.
There is no new intelligence behind the agency’s shift, officials said. Rather it is based on the same evidence it has been chewing over for months.
Officials said the agency was not bending its views to a new boss, and that the new assessment had been in the works for some time.”


POLITICAL FRONT –

Senate Republicans have rejected a request from moderate Democratic senators for a bipartisan effort on immigration.

The 12 Democratic senators sent a letter to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., suggesting a bipartisan solution on the issue. The letter was signed by swing state Sens. Mark Kelly, of Arizona, and Raphael Warnock, of Georgia.

Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., said that he laughed when he got the letter, according to the NBC news outlet.

“That’s a letter we will ignore,” he reportedly said. “We’re not going to wait for them. If they want to secure the border, they could have done that. That’s not what they want.”

https://justthenews.com/government/congress/republican-senators-reject-democrats-request-bipartisan-bill-immigration

OBSERVATION - Noted a looooooooong time ago that whenever the democrats call for ‘bipartisian’ anything, its BOHICA time.

***
In a decisive move that has sent shockwaves through the political elite in Washington, President Trump has dismissed 17 inspectors general.

By definition, inspectors general are supposed to be independent federal watchdogs who are tasked with identifying and cleaning up waste and abuse in government. That’s what we expect them to do. However, as RealClearPolitics reporter Susan Crabtree notes, many of the inspectors general have a track record of whitewashing reports and engaging in partisan politics, where left-wing officials are often given a pass.

https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2025/01/25/trump-made-a-big-move-against-the-deep-state-n4936359

OBSERVATION - As the article notes, the lack of a 30 day notice will only delay the inevitable. Over at least the past 4 years, IGs have been ineffective at best and complacent at worst in their jobs to reign in fraud, waste and abuse.


TRUMP Watch –

Monday we watched Trump being sworn in as the 47th President of the US. Almost immediately he went on the offensive with some 200 executive orders (count is now over 300) to quickly dismantle the pile of refuse created by biden. Key cabinet picks are now in place. Foreign policy changes are pressing forward, etc. The events of the past week are far beyond any I’ve experienced in my lifetime. Trump has learned from the past 8 years and has retooled his operation to counter democrat/leftist attempts to derail him.

In essence, he has engaged the start of the Great American Reset, and knowing he only has 4 years to accomplish it, he is wasting no time.


Illegal Immigration –

ICE raids continue across the country, moving aggressively in so called ‘sanctuary cities’.

Numerous reports of a mass exodus beginning as illegals start to self deport, heading for the Mexican border.

***
In a developing story, ICE is aggressively tracking down the 350,000 - 500,000 children that have come across the border and lost to the system. Mayorkas said their locations are unknown. He lied

ICE has reported that thousands have been found in Iceland while tens of thousands of others have been located across the US and elsewhere. Given the very perverted trend of the biden regime, it is very likely these children have been sex trafficked and abused in other ways. This is a developing scandal of immense proportions now being blasted into the open since these human traffickers no longer have cover from the biden regime.


China –

China’s veteran foreign minister has issued a veiled warning to America’s new secretary of state: Behave yourself.

Foreign Minister Wang Yi conveyed the message in a phone call Friday, their first conversation since Marco Rubio’s confirmation as President Donald Trump’s top diplomat four days earlier.

“I hope you will act accordingly,” Wang told Rubio, according to a Foreign Ministry statement, employing a Chinese phrase typically used by a teacher or a boss warning a student or employee to behave and be responsible for their actions.

The short phrase seemed aimed at Rubio’s vocal criticism of China and its human rights record when he was a U.S. senator, which prompted the Chinese government to put sanctions on him twice in 2020.

Chairman Xi has met and engaged with President Trump before; the two men know each other, and while Xi may be a Communist, he’s not stupid. He knows what to expect from President Trump, and the same applies in return.

https://redstate.com/wardclark/2025/01/25/china-delivers-warning-to-secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-behave-yourself-n2184795

OBSERVATION - I disagree to the last paragraph of the above. Trump 2.0 has thrown domestic opponents into a tizzy of unexpected actions. China may have a surprise coming in that this Trump is not the old Trump they are betting on.


North/South Korea –

North Korea conducted on Saturday a strategic cruise missile test, state media KCNA reported on Sunday.
The country’s leader Kim Jong Un oversaw the test, according to the report, which described it as a test-fire of an “important weapon system.”
The strategic cruise missiles traveled 932 miles and flew between 7,507 and 7,511 seconds before hitting their targets, KCNA reported.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/north-korea-cruise-missile-test/2025/01/25/id/1196519/

***
South Korean court denies the Prosecutor Office’s request to extend President Yoon’s detainment.

Yoon will be out of jail soon. The impeachment process against him is looking increasingly shaky as support for his party skyrockets in opinion polls.

OBSERVATION - The action in SK mirrors the attempts by the Chinese supporting leftists in SK to destroy all opponents and become a single party rule. Not unlike the attacks on Trump over the past 8 years.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range with scattered snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reports on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 72 launched, 50 were shot down and another 9 were supressed by electronic warfare. One UAV remained in Ukrainian airspace

Russian losses per 26/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1720 men
+9 tanks
+4 AFVs
+14 artillery systems
+53 service vehicles

General staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed, another successful drone attack at Ryazan oil refinery

Summary —

Heavy fighting along almost all of the fronts.

Of late, Ukraine has been successful in hitting oil facilities across Russia as well as other strategic manufacturing sites. At the height of Ukraine’s last blitz on Russia oil, a sizable portion of its production and distribution capabilities were taken off line. Oil has been key to Russia’s ability to wage war and is on a thin margin, so that any loss is substantial.


Moldova/Transnistria -

President of Ukraine Zelensky met with President of Moldova Maia Sandu in Kyiv, discussed power supply in Transnistria

OBSERVATION - This is a result of Ukraine’s cutting off Russia natural gas pipelines last month. As Transnistria is Russian occupied, the loss of gas is being used to pressure Russia.


Belarus -

President Lukashenko is expected to cruise to victory unchallenged for a seventh term, prolonging his three-decade authoritarian rule

All of Lukashenko’s political opponents are either in prison – some held incommunicado – or in exile along with tens of thousands of Belarusians who have fled since 2020.


ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Lebanese ceasefire ended yesterday

- Hamas violates more ceasefire obligations

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Trump pushing to have Gazans relocated to Egypt, Jordan and other arab countries.

One note on the women IDF soldiers released yesterday. Hamas tried to portray them as being in uniform when captured. Their own photos/videos show them at the time of capture being in civilian clothing.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Hamas: “We informed the mediators that Arbel Yehud is alive and provided all the necessary guarantees for her release”

Gazans are trying to push into N Gaza and are being turned back the IDF because of Hamas violations of the cease fire agreement. Israel says it will stay closed until the return of Arbel Yehud. Furthermore, Hamas has yet to provide the list of the remaining hostages from the 33 slated for the first phase and their conditions.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

DF Spokesperson for Arabic Media, Col. Avichai Adraee: “Hezbollah is behind the rioters in southern Lebanon, trying to escalate tensions to distract from its own deteriorating status in Lebanon and the Arab world. Hezbollah prioritizes its agenda over Lebanon’s interests

At least two people were killed and around 30 injured in southern Lebanon as Israeli forces opened fire on protesters breaching roadblocks, according to Lebanon’s health ministry

Intense clashes and heavy gunfire erupt between IDF forces and residents in the village of Al-Adisa, Lebanon.

Lebanese security source to Saudi Al-Hadath channel: “Residents in southern Lebanon are not obeying the army’s instructions, which puts them at risk. The situation there is very tense.”

Lebanese Army: “Israel refuses to adhere to the ceasefire agreement and withdraw from the Lebanese territories it occupied in the last stage. We once again call on citizens to exercise restraint and act according to the instructions of the military units in order to maintain their safety.”

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syrian Ministry of Interior: The General Administration of Border Security seizes a shipment of weapons headed to the Lebanese Hezbollah through smuggling routes in the city of Sarghaya in the Damascus countryside

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Things may be set to blow up in Gaza and Lebanon. In Gaza, Hamas is playing propaganda with the hostages - again. Deliberately failing to up hold its end. Hamas has also raised false hopes of being able to rush back into N Gaza and overwhelm IDF screening point to reestablish control.
Unless Hamas demonstrates it is going to follow the agreement, the ceasefire may soon devolve. And I’m sure IDF is just drooling over the possibility of hitting one of the big Hamas ‘victory’ parades/celebrations.

In S Lebanon, Hezbollah is trying to use supporters to rush Israeli positions in a effort of not only forcing IDF out, but even to try to capture soldiers as hostages. You can bet your bottom dollar that Hezbollah elements are buried within these ‘refugees’ seeking return.

The Lebanese army has displayed a virtually total inability to take control of the south and remove/disarm Hezbollah.

Israel has support from Trump to extend the stay in Lebanon. The pending question is - when will Hezbollah start firing rockets? Should one rocket go off, IDF is set to resume operations with a vengeance - especially now that biden is gone.


Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has hinted at the possibility of the U.S. government offering substantial rewards for information leading to the capture of top Taliban leaders. This statement comes amid reports that the Taliban might be holding more American hostages than previously known.

Rubio mentioned on the social media platform X that if these reports are verified, the U.S. might introduce bounties potentially larger than those once offered for Osama bin Laden.

This development suggests a possible escalation in the U.S. approach towards dealing with the Taliban, particularly in light of ongoing concerns about American citizens in Afghanistan. The mention of such significant bounties reflects the administration’s commitment to addressing security threats and ensuring the safety of U.S. nationals.

https://thelibertydaily.com/u-s-considers-very-big-bounties-taliban-leaders/

OBSERVATION - This is news to me. Blinken and the biden regime kept this secret from the American people, all the while shuffling millions to the taliban.


JORDAN -

Trump: I spoke with Jordan’s King Abdullah II about moving people from Gaza destruction sites to neighboring countries



116 posted on 01/26/2025 5:08:25 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Godzilla

Thanks Godzilla


117 posted on 01/26/2025 5:31:08 AM PST by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: Godzilla

Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., said that he laughed when he got the letter, according to the NBC news outlet.

“That’s a letter we will ignore,” he reportedly said. “We’re not going to wait for them. If they want to secure the border, they could have done that. That’s not what they want.”

That’s MY Senator! *BUMP*


118 posted on 01/26/2025 9:43:38 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have, 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set.)
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To: Godzilla
New C.I.A. analysis finds COVID likely originated from a lab leak

“The agency issued a new assessment this week, with analysts saying they now favor the lab theory. There is no new intelligence behind the agency’s shift, officials said. Rather it is based on the same evidence it has been chewing over for months. Officials said the agency was not bending its views to a new boss, and that the new assessment had been in the works for some time.”

LOL - and if Harris had won?

119 posted on 01/26/2025 11:18:35 AM PST by GOPJ ( "Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm. - Winston Churchill)
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.


120 posted on 01/26/2025 6:15:52 PM PST by Unrepentant VN Vet (Fight me if you wish, but remember I am old for a reason)
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