Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Thanks for the information on solar flares Godzilla.
Nice. I like the area where you live...sounds like a wonderful community. In Florida anyone using 'Instacart' for grocery shopping can donate directly to various Florida food banks.
Love the place, but has a lot of liberals too. According to data, 14% of the county is on SNAP/EBT, way too high given the shortage of workers for businesses here. Fortunately our ethnic mix plus general culture will minimize potential for wide spread looting should things go sideways, even most of the left here wont put up with that.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
DATES TO NOTE -
.
ONGOING - EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”
NOTE - Additional protests being announced for DC, assessing the potential for violence or other direct action.
***
Widespread pessimism about political violence is a rare, grim point of consensus in a country riven by political and cultural divisions.
A majority of Americans, 55 percent, expect political violence to increase, according to a new poll from POLITICO and Public First. That figure underscores just how much the spate of attacks — from the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk earlier this year to the attempts on President Donald Trump’s life in 2024 — have rattled the nation.
It’s a view held by majorities of Americans all across lines like gender, age, party affiliation and level of education, though Democrats and older voters expressed particular concern.
OBSERVATION - Those under the control of the left have been targeting the sheeple in order to “normalize” political violence and that normalization has spilled out into he conservative wing as well.
***
Yesterday’s Revolutionary Communists protest to “flood” Washington, D.C. was a spectacular flop.
***
Growing evidence that police in Portland and Chicago are collecting evidence in an effort to eventually charge ICE and other federal law enforcement agents with crimes. This is a serious escalation in the conflict between state and federal law enforcement powers.
Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war
***
Today @FBIDetroit and partners arrested a third additional suspect in connection to the alleged foiled terrorist attack in Michigan last week. Our investigation suggests this individual had been providing material support in preparation for the attack, inspired by ISIS. They are now in custody.
OBSERVATION - Details of the plot are still lacking, but most assume it was to be a mass casualty event, very possibly associated with Thanksgiving or Christmas celebrations. Would fit the typical MO.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
With the Bureau of Labor Statistics shuttered for the moment, and with questions about its accuracy and methodology still pending, ADP is about the only national metric we have for the labor market. Today, they reported that the US labor market had its best month since July in their private-sector analysis, but that only amounts to a net increase of 42,000 jobs:
“Private sector employment increased by 42,000 jobs in October and pay was up 4.5 percent year-over-year according to the October ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).”
Payroll growth at private companies turned slightly stronger than expected in October, providing some hope that the labor market isn’t in danger of sinking, ADP reported Wednesday.
Companies added 42,000 jobs for the month, following a decline of 29,000 in September and topping the Dow Jones consensus estimate for a gain of 22,000. A revision for September showed 3,000 fewer jobs lost, the payrolls processing firm said. …
All of the job creation came from companies employing at least 250 workers. That category added 76,000 jobs, while smaller businesses lost 34,000. The trend away from job growth at at small businesses is significant, considering they are responsible for three of every four jobs, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said.
What caused the improvement in October? The likely answer would be action from the Federal Reserve, which finally cut its benchmark rate by a quarter point last month. If so, expect a lot of pressure on Jerome Powell and the board to take more significant action, which at least a couple of the board members wanted last month. The job market clearly wants less expensive credit before investing in job-creating activities, and with inflation still largely under control, it can afford to wait out Powell and the Fed — and probably don’t have much choice anyway. Right now, small businesses can’t afford job-creating activities at all, and only large corporations with husbanded capital had the ability to react to the incremental cut last month.
OBSERVATION - A lot to digest without coffee. Bottom line appears to be that fed must drop its rates to get the economy rolling again or face implosion.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The shutdown is now the longest on record.
***
Of yesterday’s winners, probably the biggest were Democratic Socialist candidates (DSA) - headlined by Zohran Mamdani’s win in NYC. This is a growing radical left faction in today’s democrat party who are anything but democratic. Included in this growing democrat demographic are imported moslems.
RELATED - Leftist congress creators are pushing hard to continue the shutdown believing that it helped them in yesterdays’ elections. It is already assumed that Schumer bowed to their pressure to begin with and now may be sabotaging efforts to find an offramp.
***
Health premiums in the Affordable Care Act Marketplace will rise by double-, even triple-digit percentages, according to some forecasts, while experts say the numbers can be misleading.
People with household income between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level receive a subsidy from the federal government to help buy health coverage through the Marketplace.
The federal poverty level is based on household size and is adjusted annually.
People who earn less than 100 percent of the federal poverty level qualify for Medicaid, which has no premium. People earning less than 138 percent may qualify in the 40 states with expanded Medicaid.
The Marketplace subsidy is paid directly to the insurer, so enrollees who qualify pay only the reduced premium.
Five levels of plans are available: bronze, silver, gold, platinum, and catastrophic. The bronze plans have the lowest premium but typically have higher out-of-pocket expenses, and the platinum plans have the best coverage and the highest premium.
OBSERVATION - 0bamacare purposefully created this toxic mix of higher prices and complex accounting for one sole purpose - to crash the health care industry via insurance and force a govt administered universal health care on the nation (minus the elite, of course). Democrats set up this current time bomb on purpose, should the plan fail to push the country into universal health beforehand.
Republicans have repeatedly sought to restore sanity to the health care insurance industry, but by an large failed to have the backbone to carry it out. Thus supported subsidies as a way to paper over the problem. That time is running out.
This is one component that is at stake with the current govt shutdown
***
Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts came under scathing attack from his own staff and fellows who were convened for a special internal meeting Wednesday — with several castigating his leadership and calling for his resignation.
. . . one Heritage member said the organization was “bleeding” under Roberts’ leadership.
“So it’s been six days . . . where we as an organization have been unable to utter the words . . . if you want to cut through it, [that] Tucker [Carlson] is an antisemite — as we as Heritage do not want to associate with him. And we still do not have a statement about that.”
Fallout from Roberts’ actions since last week appears to be severe and growing.
OBSERVATION - Carleson has become that who he once assailed. He is dead to me now. What is of greater concern is that conservative voices like Heritage have condoned his anti semitic and anti christian diatribes.
In this case Heritage’s Roberts is either incredibly tone deaf to the damage he has caused, or complicit in efforts to split the conservative base. His mea culpa consists of blaming his chief of staff and his failure to ‘proof read’. Come on, really? A person in that level of PR activity too weak to read what he was going to say first?
It was bad enough that Roberts continued to endorse Carlson, but then doubled down by calling those who spoke out as a ‘venomous coalition.’ “
This is a fire conservatives in Heritage need to stamp out and fast. First step is that Roberts has to go. Second step is that Carleson has to be repudiated and backburnered.
***
(FO) Democrat-controlled cities and non-government organizations (NGO) urged Federal District Judge John McConnell to compel the Trump administration to fully fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) ahead of a Thursday hearing. President Donald Trump said the administration will only fully fund SNAP if Senate Democrats vote to reopen the federal government.
OBSERVATION - Should the judge be foolish enough to make such a ruling, this would easily lead to Trump saying no and give him a massive amount of ammo to bring to the USSC to stop this nonsense.
***
The lawsuits against the tariffs Trump has levied was heard before the USSC yesterday. MSM unanimously suggests that the court is leaning against Trump. Key argument seems to focus around whether or not this amounts to a tax on Americans or not.
China -
The latest personnel changes in the Chinese military show that Xi Jinping is seeking to tighten control by bringing its political apparatus under the authority of its disciplinary arm. The appointments also demonstrate his ongoing efforts to purge factionalism from the military.
The sweeping changes suggest that the Chinese military still struggles with corruption and instability, to the detriment of its combat readiness.
The specific evidence of Xi’s intention to tighten control of the military’s political organization are his expulsion of its chief and his promotion of a discipline inspection official to the position of vice chair of the Central Military Commission (CMC), the body that has overall control of the armed forces. The discipline inspection commission of a Chinese government organization enforces party rules and internal party discipline. This notably extends to catching corrupt officials.
Last month, nine active-duty generals were accused of serious violations and expelled from the party and the military, including CMC vice chairman He Weidong, director of the Political Work Department Miao Hua and commander of the paramiliary People’s Armed Police Wang Chunning.
Despite multiple purges and institutional reforms, recurring instability in the personnel system raises questions about the real combat readiness and cohesion of China’s armed forces.
OBSERVATION - Better details at the link. It would be challenging for China to launch a major military operation, either a full on blockade of Taiwan or even action against the Philippines in the disputed regions, if his military leadership is corrupted - and that corruption trickles downward, corroding overall combat readiness. Remember, China hasn’t mustered a modern fighting force since the Korean war, and in that instance was mostly human wave efforts. Modern warfare with high tech systems just haven’t been put to real testing yet.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30-40 degree range, mostly cloudy with widely scattered showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s air defenses intercepted or suppressed 108 out of 135 Russian drones overnight, including around 90 Shaheds. Still, 27 drones hit targets across 13 locations.
Ukrainian drone/missile strike hit the Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant in Bashkortostan again, early this morning.
On the evening of Nov 5, Ukraine struck a major Geran-2 (Shahed) drone base at Donetsk airport with cruise missiles and drones. An ammo depot, fuel storage, and pre-launch prep site were destroyed. Power and comms nodes damaged. Up to 1,000 drones and 1,500 warheads were reportedly on site.
Ukraine’s General Staff confirms a strike on the LUKOIL refinery in Volgograd along with three fuel depots in occupied Crimea.
Russian losses per 06/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1170 men
+6 ACVs
+15 artillery systems
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Not much forward on the fight - probably surpassed by OPSEC from both sides. No doubt still intense and not settled in any manner.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Brilliant stroke by Ukraine overnight, finding and hitting a Geran-2 (Shahed) drone base at Donetsk airport. From videos posted to social media, it blew up real good. From a tactical view, it wasn’t the smartest move by Russia to place such a facility so far forward.
The relative silence on Pokrovsk from my sources is good and bad. If bad, Russia would be pushing the news. If good for Ukraine, I’d expect continued silence because of continued OPSEC knowing they are not out of the woods yet in this fight. Information I do see indicates that the fighting is most intense on the southern approaches to Pokrovsk while it appears that Ukrainian counter attacks on the northern pincer have lessened action there.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel continues to reduce Hamas forces within its “Yellow Zone”
- Pressure building towards larger action against Hezbollah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
IDF standing down some of the Reserve units called up for the fight in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Israeli media: The army launched air and ground strikes this morning on several targets in the Khan Younis area, southern Gaza Strip.
***
Israeli forces have carried out a series of air raids and demolitions east of Gaza City amid the ongoing ceasefire violations by Hamas.
***
Israel has issued new restrictions along the Gaza border with Egypt due to the increase in drones attempting to bring arms and munitions to Hamas elements.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Things have reached a kind of dynamic stability with Gaza. Hamas is not going to get its forces within the “Yellow Zone” released even with some international pressure from Egypt and Qatar.
Hamas continues to dodge the disarmament clause with help from Egypt et al who suggest that the peace plan doesn’t really address that point. It is in Egypt’s and many other arab counties interest to maintain an armed, anti-Israeli element in Gaza to keep Israel’s attention there and not the rest of the region. The results from the post Oct 7 wars indicate that Israel is capable of dealing with multiple fronts at the same time.
Fighting in Lebanon may break out by the end of the month. Right now the Lebanese govt and Hezbollah are only engaged in a war of words. Israel will once again show them real war. See Lebanon below for more observations.
(BTW, I’m considering reopening a Lebanon/Hezbollah section back under Israel should serious fighting breakout to keep common news together and not spread out. )
Lebanon - Threat Level - ADVISORY November 5, 2025
Threat level set separate due to growing threat from Hezbollah ruining the current ceasefire
Hezbollah has issued an open letter to Lebanon’s President, Parliament Speaker, and Prime Minister, opposing talks with Israel: “The negotiations do not serve a national interest and pose existential risks that threaten the Lebanese entity and its sovereignty.”
Sami Jamil of Lebanon’s Christian Al Kataeb party reacts to Hezbollah’s letter:
“Hezbollah insists on dragging us into a new destructive war. It is unacceptable for a minority held hostage to dictate the fate of the free majority.”.
***
Unconfirmed reports In recent hours, the United States has informed Western and Arab countries that “Israel has decided to escalate its operations in Lebanon to put pressure on Hezbollah.”
***
One person killed in an Israeli airstrike on a car in the town of Burj Rahal, southern Lebanon
***
Lebanese media reports Israeli airstrikes in the Tyre area. Israel claims it was a facility being rebuilt by Hezbollah.
OBSERVATIONS - As noted yesterday, it seems that Lebanon is being given until the end of the month to get its act together against Hezbollah. The US warning, noted above, suggests that any Israeli action would have the support of the US.
Some feedback from Israeli sources suggest that an Israeli campaign would be about a couple weeks long and very intense, with a lot of airstrikes and some expansion of ground being held in S Lebanon. Such action likely would cause Hezbollah to come out of hiding and counter attack, creating a larger target list for IAF.
Syria -
The U.S. plans a military presence at a Damascus airbase to support a Syria-Israel security agreement, Reuters reports.
OBSERVATION - US already has bases in the eastern regions of Syria as part of the fight against ISIS. A facility at the Damascus airport could result in complications should terror element use the site to store weapons and munitions like Hezbollah did, thinking they would be safe from Israeli attack.
Mexico -
Mexican President Sheinbaum again refused the U.S.’ offer for military intervention against the cartels in Mexico. Sheinbaum further called militarization a failed project “as happened with the war on drugs.”
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
Russia’s Deputy Chairman of their legislative defense committee said Russia is already sending weapons to Venezuela and sees no legal barrier to sending the Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missiles.
OBSERVATION - This could generate a replay of the Cuban missile crisis. It would certainly result in US strikes on Venezuela to take out these systems as soon as they are unloaded and possibly use force or threat thereof to intercept Russian attempts to deliver via either air or sea.
Thanks Godzilla.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
DATES TO NOTE -
.
ONGOING - EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.
***
Weekend forecast for trouble hasn’t changed much. Mostly just signs and shouts. Even the Revolutionary Communist Party, USA’s that started on November 5 was weak with only about 1000 turning out.
So far, no major social events that could trigger much more violent actions. Even the SNAP/EBT threats have muted over the course of the week. There is little to suggest cards will be started to be filled any time soon, so this could change the social attitude and stimulate greater looting.
***
Mamdani’s win in NYC has opened up a significant new front in the growing CW2 matrix - moslem takeover of the nation’s largest city. Calls by moslems to flock to NYC echo similar ones that impacted London following the election of a marxist moslem there over a decade ago. Same has been observed for Dearborn MI. With a favorable moslem leader, radical moslems will aggressively enter the town and start forcing islamic practices via multiple paths- by sheer numbers, legal means and violence/threats. Mamdani is a radical’s radial in this measure.
As Ive noted many times before, the CW2 matrix becomes very complex from here on out. Jihad will pair with marxism for as long as it is beneficial to them, then kill it like other opponents. So in a country where the major divisions are red - blue, this moslem component in the blue areas will eventually generate a power struggle, resulting in ‘green’ zones that initially will be aligned blue, then expand to take over blue.
***
Federal officers have been met with a range of resistance from protesters, most notably in blue sanctuary cities like Portland and Chicago. Now, however, the Department of Homeland Security has announced the implementation of new rules that should give officers an advantage as they continue to do their already dangerous jobs.
Early this week, the Department of Homeland Security updated its list of prohibited and restricted conduct on federal property, and those wearing face-coverings should take note
“Wearing a mask, hood, disguise, or device that conceals the identity of the wearer when attempting to avoid detection or identification while violating any federal, state, or local law, ordinance, or regulation” is forbidden, the rules say.
Those rules will be enforced “on federal property or in areas outside federal property, that affects, threatens, or endangers federal property or persons on the federal property,” the rules state
OBSERVATION - This rule change will likely be challenged by the left as some sort of violation of the first amendment. Interestingly, Portland seems to have released a similar restriction on protestors.
***
Revolutionary Communist Party, USA’s 05 November protest event began at the National Mall in Washington, D.C. yesterday. Organizers with RevCom’s Refuse Fascism organization said 1,000 people attended the National Mall protest. The demonstration is expected to resume at George Washington University today, and move to the Supreme Court.
Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war
***
A sixth suspect has been charged in connection with an investigation into an ISIS-inspired terrorist attack in Michigan over Halloween weekend.
FBI Director Kash Patel confirmed a sixth suspect on Thursday, who was arrested in Kent, Washington. Acting U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, Alina Habba, identified the suspect as 19-year-old Saed Ali Mirreh.
https://www.oann.com/newsroom/sixth-suspect-charged-in-connection-with-alleged-michigan-terror-plot/
UPDATE - 8 teens and young adults across Michigan, New Jersey, and Washington have been arrested so far in connection with a thwarted ISIS-linked Halloween terror plot.
***
A suspicious package was delivered to the Joint Base Andrews military base in Maryland on Thursday which caused multiple people to fall ill & be taken to the hospital.
The suspicious package included ‘unknown white powder’ and ‘political propaganda.’
(CNN)
OBSERVATION - This is serious since people fell ill and had to be hospitalized.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Household debt continues to rise as Americans keep spending. Increases in the cost of living have outpaced salary growth, while elevated interest rates have added to the strain.
Total U.S. household debt reached a record $18.59 trillion in Q3 2025, an increase of $197 billion from the previous quarter. Household debt is distributed across several categories, with mortgages making up the largest share.
Mortgage balances rose by $137 billion to $13.07 trillion, while credit card balances climbed by $24 billion to $1.23 trillion, an all-time high, nearly 6% higher than a year earlier.
Student loan debt also reached a record $1.65 trillion, while auto loan balances remained steady at $1.66 trillion.
By category, total household debt includes $13.07 trillion in mortgages, $1.66 trillion in auto loans, $1.65 trillion in student loans, $1.23 trillion in credit card debt, $0.55 trillion in other debt, and $0.42 trillion in home equity lines of credit (HELOCs).
While the debt itself is problematic, a more worrying economic indicator is the rise in delinquencies.
About 4.3% of total debt is now more than 30 days past due, the highest level since early 2020 but still well below the 11% recorded during the 2009 financial crisis.
OBSERVATION - These are obviously not good numbers and will burden any future growth of the economy.
***
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the Trump administration is preparing to cut U.S. flight capacity at the 40 largest U.S. airports by 10% to alleviate pressure on air traffic controllers. Duffy said the cuts will take effect on Friday, 07 November. Duffy added the administration could impose more flight capacity cuts if staffing shortages worsen.
OBSERVATION - Concerns are now rising over potential impacts to Thanksgiving travel should the shutdown last that long. Even the limited reductions will have substantial impacts across the whole system
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Unconfirmed reports that the USS Ford is holding position west of Gibraltar, due in part to administration reconsideration of using military strikes directly against Venezuela.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The shutdown is now the longest on record.
It looks like the radical marxist wing of senate democrats are continuing to sway the party in continuing the shutdown over perceived gains suggested by Tuesday’s voting results. Majority Leader Thune was reportedly opening up to some negotiation this week, but democrats apparently have shut that down.
Independent Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, told reporters Wednesday it would be “devastating” to the party if Democrats caved on the heels of the election and reopened the government for a “meaningless” subsidy extension vote.
“I think all over this country people are saying, ‘Please Democrats, you haven’t been strong in the past. Stand tall now, protect us,’” Sanders told reporters Wednesday. “The Democrats now are winning because they’re standing with working people. So, to answer your question, if they cave now and go forward with a meaningless vote, I think it will be a horrible policy decision, and I think politically, it will be devastating to Democrats.”
Another aspect of the shut down is that democrats perceive that the courts are successfully fighting for them, given the recent SNAP funding rulings. Those rulings will be overturned at appeal and higher, but it does give them something to cling to in the interim.
***
(Reuters) - A federal judge ordered U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration to fully fund this month’s food aid for 42 million low-income Americans by Friday, blocking its plan to only provide reduced benefits during the government shutdown.
U.S. District Judge John McConnell in Providence, Rhode Island accused the administration of withholding Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits, known as SNAP or food stamps, for “political reasons” as he ordered the U.S. Department of Agriculture to fund the program so people get 100% of their benefits.
The Trump administration quickly moved to appeal McConnell’s decision, leaving it unclear whether ultimately SNAP benefits would be paid out in full on Friday as the judge had ordered.
A USDA spokesperson in a statement said Senate Democrats were the ones to blame for compromising SNAP by voting 14 times against a Republican-backed stopgap funding measure that would end the government shutdown, which is now in its 37th day.
OBSERVATION - Activist judge completely out of line with this order. The hard fact is that SNAP will not be reloaded today. SNAP funding is dependent on congressional appropriation - which there are none currently. Hugely unconstitutional ruling, and one where the administration can legitimately strike hard on appeal. If a judge can make this order hold, then other activities judges can order other components of the shut down full funded as well, again, in gross violation of the law and constitution.
***
Fallout from Mamdani’s win in NYC is beginning to develop with reports of businesses preparing to move their operations out of town as well as dramatically increased inquires to moving firms and real estate people in nearby states. Much of this developing migration is being lead by the rich - the very ones Mamdani is counting on taxing into poverty.
Keep in mind only 14% of the city’s population voted Tuesday to create this tyranny of the minority.
Reports also suggest vast numbers of city employees looking to leave as well, in particular bus and other metro drivers should the ‘free’ fares go into effect. Small businesses concerned new taxation and other laws will put them out of business.
How big the bleed out of NYC will be is yet to be determined. Much of Mamdani’s agenda is questionable and overreach of his authority, which may dampen things a bit, but the pressure will be on once he takes office.
Illegal Immigration –
The number of detainees in ICE custody increased to 66,000 this week, setting a new record high as U.S. President Donald Trump intensifies his crackdown on illegal immigration, according to internal Department of Homeland Security data. - CBS
***
(FO) New York City Mayor-Elect Zohran Mamdani is planning to allocate $165 million to illegal aliens’ legal defenses when Mamdani takes office in January 2026. Mamdani’s plan would significantly increase funding to New York’s Rapid Response Legal Collaborative, a joint city and state program which provides legal services for illegal aliens. Mamdani said he also plans to end any New York City government collaboration or cooperation with ICE.
***
Federal agents have just rounded up 1,500 ILLEGAL ALIENS in Houston — including over a dozen sexual predators and 17 gang members.
China -
China’s October’s export figures have revealed a sharp and unexpected contraction, marking the first decline since February and underscoring the devastating impact of renewed U.S.-China trade tensions under President Donald Trump.
As tariffs bite deeper and front-loaded shipments to America dry up, Beijing’s manufacturing machine is sputtering, raising alarms about a potential cascade of economic fallout that could ripple across the world.
Shipments to the United States, China’s largest single export destination, cratered by a staggering 25.17%, highlighting America’s outsized role in propping up Chinese trade—accounting for over $400 billion annually. Without the U.S., exports to the rest of the world managed a modest 3.1% increase, but this proved insufficient to stem the overall decline.
OBSERVATION - This is huge. China’s economy has already been staggering for the past couple of years following the close out of wuhan related stoppages and the damages those shutdowns caused. This makes China’s military buildup more difficult and costly overall. While the tariff war may hurt us here, it will hit China even harder.
***
China has officially put its newest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, into service. The conventionally powered Type 003 carrier Fujian, is a true flattop sporting electromagnetic catapults and other advanced technologies previously existent only on western aircraft carriers. It is however is not as big as the Ford class.
OBSERVATION - Edge US has is that all carriers are nuclear powered. Secondly, China is still very new at carrier operations. The Fujian has seen sea deployments over the past months, even participating in some exercises simulating a blockade of Taiwan. But sustaining combat operations and the stresses involved are unproven. Good at regional force projection but poor in projection of power beyond that.
China and other nations have touted the vulnerability of US carriers. China has yet to fully develop protection and actions for its carriers.
North/South Korea –
North Korea has launched a ballistic missile in the direction of the Sea of Japan, according to the Japanese Defense Ministry.
OBSERVATION - First in many months and is among other recent tests.
Phillipines –
(FO) The Philippines began a drill on Monday for defending the northern islands from invasion by the Chinese. The drill involves thousands of troops, coast guardsmen, and police as a whole-of-nation defense.
OBSERVATION - I still see the first bullets fired against the Philippines and not Taiwan.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The Russian President has instructed senior officials in his government to examine the state of preparedness of its nuclear weapons establishment to perform a live test — which could be the first in over 30 years, given the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty — if it were deemed necessary. The conversation took place during a meeting of Putin’s Security Council which, a Russian newspaper claims, was supposed to be on road safety but which got diverted into nuclear weapons instead.
Russian broadsheet Ведомости (‘The Record’) reports that during the meeting, Russia’s Putin stated that he would not resume nuclear tests unilaterally and would only do so in response to an American live nuclear test. He is reported to have said: “In my 2023 address to the Federal Assembly, I stated that if the United States or other countries conduct such tests, Russia will be required to take appropriate retaliatory measures”.
OBSERVATION - I think Trump’s remarks were unexpected and caught the Kremlin off guard. putin has been used to threatening nuclear escalation so far and now the reverse card has been played on him.
Economic Impact –
Alcohol prices in Russia are set to rise sharply from January 1, 2026, as the government approves higher excise taxes across the board. Vodka will go up 11.4%, beer by 10%, and wine by as much as 30%. Some shelves may empty by December as producers rush output. Analysts expect a 10% drop in sales.
OBSERVATION - Russia needs more money, so they are starting to expand taxes and increases.
***
Russia’s top tank maker Uralvagonzavod is slashing around 10% of its workforce and freezing all new hires by February. Insider reports suggest some divisions could lose up to 50% of staff, pointing to a steep drop in military orders or state funding (most likely)
OBSERVATION - This is a very significant action if found true. Losing production of military equipment in the middle of a significant war is generally unheard of. Especially as Russia is rumored to be trying to rebuild armor corps as the war continues. Something serious is happening, and it doesn’t appear to be playing out well for Russia. Increases the focus on 2026 being a threshold year for the war.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30-40 degree range, mostly cloudy with widely scattered showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 128 attack drones of various types, including around 80 Shaheds, from multiple directions including Kursk, Orel, and occupied Crimea. As of 9:00 AM, Ukrainian air defense shot down or jammed 94 of them. Strikes were recorded at 11 locations.
Ukrainian SOF drones struck multiple fuel depots in occupied Crimea. A fully loaded RVS-400 tank at the Hvardiiske oil facility was destroyed, along with two fuel trains at a nearby loading rack. Additional hits were reported on fuel storage sites in Simferopol and the village of Bityumne, triggering widespread fires.
Confirmed by Reuters: The Volgograd oil refinery has halted operations after overnight Ukrainian drone strikes. The AVT-5 unit (3.3M tons/year) caught fire, and the hydrocracker was damaged, cutting the refinery’s capacity by around 20%. This marks the sixth confirmed hit on the facility, the last one on August 14.
Russian losses per 07/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1170 men
+1 tank
+2 ACVs
+13 artillery
+1 AD system
Analysis and Future Operations —
Only propaganda outlets speaking on the action at Pokrovsk, much is still under a cloud. This makes reports very questionable at the moment. It appears that Russia has been unable to seal the deal in the face of Ukraine active defensive measures. The outcome is still hanging with intense fighting indicated.
Looking at Russian drone/missile attacks, the pattern is pointing to a likely large attack some time in the next couple days.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Heavy air strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon
- Continued ops in Gaza
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Continued ops with overnight air strikes near the “Yellow Line”, suggesting IDF located Hamas elements potentially preparing to attack Israeli forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The political bureau of the Houthis in Yemen responded to the Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon by saying that the Lebanese government’s weakness and failure to respond to Israel’s repeated attacks have allowed Israel to deepen its violation of Lebanon’s sovereignty and abandon its commitments.
The statement says the Houthis reaffirm Yemen’s support for Lebanon, its people, its army, and Hezbollah, and back their right to curb “Israeli aggression.” It adds that resisting Israeli attacks is a legitimate right on religious, moral, and humanitarian grounds.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
See discussion on Lebanon below regarding the overnight airstrikes. Suffice it to say Israel is ramping up for more substantial attacks in the near future.
Israel continues to reduce Hamas presence within the “Yellow Zone” as well as hitting targets in Hamas controlled area. Actions in the yellow zone continue to methodical, focusing on the identification and elimination of underground defenses and tunnels.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Iranian President Pezeshkian says Tehran may soon have to be evacuated due to a deteriorating water crisis, says water rationing will start soon
Not a single millimeter of rain has dropped in Tehran province since September, and Tehran’s dams water reserves are down to 5%.
OBSERVATION - Evacuate to where? Nearly all of Iran is suffering from a severe drought.
Lebanon - Threat Level - ADVISORY November 5, 2025
Threat level set separate due to growing threat from Hezbollah ruining the current ceasefire
Israel issued evacuation notices for 5 areas overnight before carrying out an intensified wave of strikes in and around the coastal city of Tyre, hitting targets located deep within civilian areas. Hezbollah is known to place its weapons among homes in southern Lebanese villages, using residents as human shields. The IDF issued more than five evacuation notices to Lebanese civilians in the region during the same day.
https://www.ynetnews.com/opinions-analysis/article/skpkp11i111e#autoplay
Lebanese civilians, including members of the Lebanese army, evacuated areas designated by the IDF ahead of incoming strikes.
Powerful secondary explosions seen after an IDF strikes confirming the presence of hidden weapons caches.
***
Under Maj. Gen. Rafi Milo, the IDF says it will keep up the offensive in southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from rearming and to protect northern communities. He told mayors and local leaders on the border:
“We understand that we must be determined and continue to attack, strike and destroy in order to keep Hezbollah weakened,” says Milo to mayors and leaders of local councils on the northern border.
“We will not allow Hezbollah to establish itself and reorganize on our borders, we will not let it recover. We will continue to attack and operate in the security area and on the front, as a buffer before the residents, and above all we will continue to monitor every threat we see and act against it,” he tells the officials.
Milo adds that the IDF “will continue to operate intensively and in an offensive and persistent manner as we have operated over the last year, and as we acted today, for the continued maintenance of civilian routine in the communities and the growth of the north.”
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - These overnight strikes have been the largest in many weeks. This is in line with growing warnings of increased Israeli action against Hezbollah in the absence of Lebanese moving against them. Looks like unless things change, things will seriously break out next month. Hezbollah is still believed to have some missiles and rockets available that may come out of hiding if that happens. That is why Israel is hitting those likely storage locations. Sizable secondary explosions from videos posted on social media are evidence that pretty substantial stores of explosives were hit - likely rockets.
So far, silence from the Trump administration gives the appearance that the administration is condoning these strikes - part of warnings they gave Lebanon earlier in the week.
Syria -
Syria denied a Reuters report on Thursday, November 6, that the United States was preparing to establish a military presence at an airbase in the Syrian capital, Damascus, to help facilitate a security agreement that Washington is working to broker between Syria and Israel.
***
The UN Security Council has lifted sanctions on Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa. The EU is expected to lift similar in the next few days.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
Reports suggest Venezuelan President Maduro may step down if the U.S. offers amnesty, removes his $50M bounty, and ensures exile. Talks revive amid U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean
OBSERVATION - These reports of Maduro wetting himself continue to surprise and perplex me. It is apparent that the US threat of boots on the ground only really extend to small elements hitting narco-terror operations. Efforts to militarily overthrow the country would require a substantially larger force than is out in the Caribbean region. Maduro sees the threat being much larger.
Now this follows rumors that Trump is reconsidering ground operations in Venezuela.
Thanks Godzilla.
Democrats will find continuous reasons to keep the shutdown going until they get what they want.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
DATES TO NOTE -
.
ONGOING - EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.
***
WEEKEND - Pretty much the same level of warning as prior weekends. Mostly sign waving, vocal assemblies with low probability of violence. Situations can change quickly so be alert out there.
***
Activist judges continue to step outside their boxes and rule unconstitutionally to restrict Trump’s ability to mobilize the NG for facility protection. This will only embolden the leftists to increase their attacks not only on facilities, but arrest teams in the field. See more under Political below.
***
President Donald Trump unlawfully ordered National Guard troops to Portland, Oregon, according to a federal judge ruling on Friday, a legal setback to the administration’s use of the military in American cities.
The ruling by U.S. District Judge Karin Immergut is the first to permanently block Trump’s use of military force to quell protests against immigration authorities.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/portland-national-guard-donald-trump/2025/11/07/id/1233723/
OBSERVATION - This will be overturned on appeal. The background being set here is the projection that NG troops were roving all over town, where reality was they were providing site security. They were only called in when Portland police refused to stop the nightly, violent assaults on ICE and govt agents.
Some have noted that the judge waited until the last day of the temporary injunction to issue this permanent one - suggesting that he was slow walking the process, knowing he will be overturned.
***
Mamdani is coordinating to try to place legal barriers up to ‘protect’ illegals in NYC once he take command. Largest is firing up a rapid response legal defense team. A second layer is thru coordination with Indivisible for supporting political ‘rallies’ to shape the public opinion against Trump’s deportation goals. In these talks, an effort will be made to keep them violence free in order to nullify any justification for Trump mobilizing NG units into the city, which is on a target list already for such action.
This is soft insurrection against federal law and govt.
Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war
***
No announcement on the contents of the powdery substance in a package discovered at Joint Base Andrews yesterday. Associated ‘political’ material still being analyzed as well.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
U.S. consumer sentiment, a subjective survey, declined for a fourth straight month in November, with the preliminary index dropping 6 percent, to 50.3 from October’s 53.6, the widely watched monthly survey found. That is the lowest level since June 2022.
This month’s slide was fueled by a 17 percent drop in current personal finances and an 11 percent decrease in year-ahead business conditions.
OBSERVATION - Some believe that the current govt shutdown is the reason for the drop. That may be a component but not an entirety. The economy is still struggling with high interest rated created by fed policy. Though recently dropping, they have upset the job market - and that is were the people are feeling the pinch the worst.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Unconfirmed reports that the U.S. has deployed attack aircraft, including an AC-130J Ghostrider, to El Salvador as part of a growing regional troop buildup linked to possible operations in Venezuela, according to satellite and flight data reviewed by The New York Times.
POLITICAL FRONT –
(UPDATED) The Trump administration informed states on Friday that it is working to comply with a federal court order to pay full November food stamp benefits amid the ongoing government shutdown, based on a memo obtained by Politico.
Earlier on Friday, Reuters reported that Justice Department lawyers filed an emergency appeal with the 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, seeking to block a lower court’s ruling requiring USDA to restore full SNAP payments. The government argued that U.S. District Judge John McConnell Jr.’s decision was legally flawed and likely to be overturned. DOJ lawyers claimed the court overstepped its authority by effectively ordering the executive branch to spend funds that Congress has not approved. (Later the 1st Circuit upheld the ruling)
As of Friday night, the Justice Department’s appeal was still pending, and it was unclear whether the 1st Circuit would allow full payments to proceed. Meanwhile, states were preparing to load benefits to recipients’ accounts as soon as the USDA funds arrive — hoping the legal battle does not interrupt them again.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/snap-trump-shutdown/2025/11/07/id/1233686/
MASSIVE UPDATE - Late Friday, the Supreme Court granted the Trump administration’s emergency appeal regarding SNAP benefits during the Schumer Shutdown. Looks like two federal judges overstepped their authority. It’s a temporary block, but Trump is no longer ordered to fully fund SNAP payments immediately.
However, there is evidence that some cards were loaded yesterday, but the process for the whole system has been halted for now.
OBSERVATION - That is a key argument. The courts do not have the constitutional authority to direct expenditure of funds, especially absent congressional approval.
Now with the USSC stay, the forcing of payment will be on hold.
***
Senate Republicans on Friday rejected Democrats’ offer to scale back their shutdown demands to a one-year extension of expiring health care subsidies, Bloomberg reported.
OBSERVATION - That extension is dead in the water in the House as well. Extending this life line in the absence of real reform is clearly a waste, and everyone there knows it. These subsidies were part of the outgrowth of spending from the biden enhanced wuhan plandemic scam. We are out of wuhan now, so this spending should fade away, except that democrats under 0bama built this program to become a massive money hole to destroy our health care.
BTW, at the time of this action, democrats were savoring the district judge’s order to fully fund SNAP - with out funding authorization - so they thought they won that round via activist judges.
***
Federal grand jury has subpoenaed former CIA Director John Brennan and former FBI officials Peter Strzok and Lisa Page as part of the U.S. Justice Department’s investigation into the origins of Russiagate.
OBSERVATION - Expect pushback from the swamp to be BIG. After 10 months of preparation, this is the first direct assault on key players of the Russiagate conspiracy. Key points seeming to be is that they thought they would get away with it via cover from biden and other deep state assets, so they were sloppy with their paper trail and other evidence.
I will run counter to some here in saying that I prefer slower processes leading to arrests rather than going out and arrest immediately. If you are going to take these scum down, you need to have your “i”s dotted and ’t’s crossed. You cannot afford to make a mistake. We only have one shot at this, and we have to make it good. Grand jury process is key to that, not only firming up the case but building public opinion for it.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The Kremlin has reportedly reached out to the administration seeking clarification as to the US’ resumption of nuclear testing.
Economic Impact –
Seizure of the Neftochim Burgas refinery in Bulgaria is another major blow to the Russian petroleum income stream it is depending heavily on to support its war effort.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30-40 degree range, mostly cloudy with widely scattered showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on the overnight attack.
Shot down:
406/458 Shahed and other type drones
9/45 Various type missiles (including 25 Iskander-M/KN-23, 10 Iskander-K, 7 Kh-47M2 and 3 Kalibr missiles)
26 missiles hit inside Ukraine, 10 missiles did not reach their target.
Overnight strikes hit Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipro, Kharkiv, Poltava, and Mykolaiv. Power infrastructure was also targeted, causing blackouts and fires. Emergency outages are now in place across several regions.
Ukrainian attack drones reportedly targeted the Tavricheskaya Thermal Power Plant in Russian-occupied Crimea overnight.
Multiple explosions were reported in the area of the facility, the largest power plant in Crimea.
Russian losses per 08/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1190 men
+1 AFV
+20 artillery
+3 MLRS
+1 AD system
Analysis and Future Operations —
A large drone/missile attack overnight, but I expect a larger one soon.
Fighting still fierce in Pokrovsk as some OSINT analysts are suggesting that Russia is attempting to improve its resupply lines into the southern portions of the city. Other indicators suggest that Ukraine is having some success at stabilizing the defensive lines, but are under tremendous pressure, with Russia seeing small gains.
Europe / NATO General –
Bulgaria’s Parliament passed a bill today that seizes control of the Neftochim Burgas refinery from Russia’s Lukoil.
A special commercial manager appointed by the government will manage the refinery, one of the largest in the Balkans.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel continues to reduce Hamas within the “Yellow Zone”
- Reports of advanced preparations for resumption of operations against Hezbollah
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel is preparing “disproportionate measures” if required, defense officials said, as its air force intensifies strikes in Lebanon amid Hezbollah’s efforts to rebuild its weapons systems. Officials said Israel’s current policy is to escalate even at risk of war. - N12
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Israeli army launches airstrikes on eastern areas of Khan Younis.
Following the recent return of the remains of hostages, the bodies of 5 more murdered hostages are still in the hands of Hamas in Gaza
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Turkey has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and 36 other officials on charges of “genocide” over Israel’s military operations in Gaza.Those named reportedly include Defense Minister Israel Katz, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, Israeli army Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, and Naval Commander David Saar Salama
Israeli Foreign Minister Sa’ar:
“The Istanbul Prosecutor’s Office - which, as recalled, recently orchestrated the arrest of the Mayor of Istanbul merely for daring to run against Erdoğan - has now issued “arrest warrants” for Israeli leaders and senior officials.
In Erdoğan’s Turkey, the judiciary has long since become a tool for silencing political rivals and detaining journalists, judges, and mayors.
Israel firmly rejects, with contempt, the latest PR stunt by the tyrant Erdoğan.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Pressure continues to grow as Israel looks to preemptively strike Hezbollah and its attempts to reconstitute a functional military threat to N Israel. I expect this to be primarily an air campaign but can expect some ground activity, though no Reserve call ups are apparent, so Israel will be using active duty forces at least at first.
Gaza continues in a dynamic, yet status quo state. Contradictory, I know, but Israel’s methodical elimination of Hamas elements within its zone is punctuated by higher intensity attacks both in and out of the “Yellow Zone”. The timing and intensity of which can vary.
Very little is being said about disarming Hamas now. The reality setting in on the peace partners is that the only way they will be disarmed is by prying the weapons from their cold, dead hands. Most of the arab nations supporting the so called piece effort are unwilling to pay the price to see that happen, and in many cases want a militarized threat to remain towards Israel. In Israel’s case, the military is taking a breather from the massive call up and focusing on defeat in detail of the Hamas elements within their zone of control, isolated from the main force in Gaza City.
Out side the yellow zone and primarily in Gaza City proper, Hamas likely has a substantial amount of weapons and ammo in their bunkers that could sustain combat for a while - or at least until Israel locates and destroys these bunkers. However, since Hama has built these fortification under civilian buildings and features, the resulting destruction will also level Gaza City, just has it has the rest of Gaza.
Turkey’s arrest warrants for Israeli leaders is sabotaging its standing as a Gaza mediatory and peace partner. Besides earlier threatening to invade Israel, this action alone more than justifies Israel’s refusal to allow any Turkish elements into Gaza for any reason. Part of Turkey’s issue is the Israeli recognition of the Armenian Massacre by Turkish forces, an event that Turkey has fought to keep out of the headlights for decades.
Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025
Threat level ELEVATED due to growing probably of expanded Israeli targeting of Hezbollah sites.
***
Israel is preparing “disproportionate measures” if required, defense officials said, as its air force intensifies strikes in Lebanon amid Hezbollah’s efforts to rebuild its weapons systems. Officials said Israel’s current policy is to escalate even at risk of war. - N12
OBSERVATION - Another warning, which the Lebanese govt appears to be blowing off.
Key element for Israel is that even though Hezbollah is pushing hard to reconstitute a force, it is heavily crippled from the last go round, losing most of its rocket and missile capacity. Should things break out again, they would launch as much as they can against Israel, but the numbers would be down and air defenses capable of handling them. Israels intelligence assets would quickly identify launching points and reduce them.
Misc of Note –
Judicial tyranny is growing upon us. Nothing shows it more than the latest dictates from an activist judge to force the US in spending money it is not authorized to spend by congress. Hence these judges are illegitimately stealing powers from both the legislative and executive branches to support their own activist agendas. Literally over a hundred of these ‘rulings’ have been overturned by appeals and USSC. Yet they continue to issue them.
This creates a constitution crisis of when will the USSC take steps to reign in these rogue judges and when will the congress begin proceedings to impeach them and work toward removing their credentials as lawyers? The answer I see is that the whole system is so corrupted that there will be little or no consequences for these judges’ actions.
These unjust judges are a symptom of a much larger deception and groundswell of evil coming upon our country and world. We can see it in other sectors as well. For example, Tucker Carlson has become that who he once railed against. Now even pushing a narrative that Christians and not being killed in Nigeria or elsewhere. And undiscerning Americans are lapping that up as unfiltered ‘truth’.
In another sector, we are seeing increasing numbers of individuals, mostly on the left, condoning violence and even murder against those who oppose their political agenda. We saw NYC election interviews of people on the street who supported Mamdani, but clueless to what he stood for.
Deception is wide and strong and even presentations of the truth cannot penetrate it. Take for instance the recent, now epic, GQ interview of actress Sydney Sweeney who dismissed the interviewer’s pathetic calls to apologize for her American Eagle jeans campaign and associated “white” genetic superiority. Pertinent link below
https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1986481306608263205?s=20
Gone are the days when Tip O’Neil and Ronald Reagan would fight tooth and nail over policies, yet be able to sit together for a beer. The left has gone so far over to the dark side that even JFK would not be welcome in their midst. Heck, even Sen Fetterman has been forced to the margins.
All this caused me to ponder if our country has passed the point of no return. Forces are relentlessly driving it towards a civil war of some sort, one that would rip the country apart. IDK but from my many times around the sun, this is a growing threat - an internally based attack rather than an overt, external one. Are Trump’s remaining three years on office enough to turn the tide? Will congressional republican continue to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory? What we do know is that the democrats are salivating at the thought of regaining the congress and the WH and inflicting levels of punishment and tyranny not seen since the rise of Stalin. I have absolutely no doubt about that.
*****
And in those days the dims got what they wanted...amnesty comes to mind.
Deception is wide and strong and even presentations of the truth cannot penetrate it. Take for instance the recent, now epic, GQ interview of actress Sydney Sweeney who dismissed the interviewer’s pathetic calls to apologize for her American Eagle jeans campaign and associated “white” genetic superiority.
Mamdani offers the fantasy that we can all go back to our real or imagined childhoods where THE STATE becomes loving and protective parents to us. It's the cruelest come on to humanity that's ever been invented.
That said, the 'promise that's a lie' will seduce many who are unwilling a read or believe history books or the still living folks who escaped commie hellholes.
Republicans are the only people who can solve this one - we can take the power away from socialists and commies by admitted part of the allure of communism is valid - and come up with ways to solve some of the real problems some citizens have... that we might think of as 'not our problem'. Starting with medical care - developed by democrats to feed their corrupt liberal elites on the backs of the poor and working classes.
We can do this - even if it's not our normal 'cup of tea' so to speak.
I too wonder regarding your last two paragraphs. Is good to still be allowed an opinion though. Am content that ALL and Everything is in God’s Hands even though the devil and the devil’s minions are in present control of God’s created Earth. Time changes everything ….. but always have “Plan B” just in case Plan A turns out to fail.
Heads up - There will be no post for tomorrow, Monday. Will try to catch up on Tuesday
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
DATES TO NOTE -
.
ONGOING - EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.
***
WEEKEND - Pretty much the same level of warning as prior weekends. Mostly sign waving, vocal assemblies with low probability of violence. Situations can change quickly so be alert out there.
***
Authorities are searching for a man who allegedly opened fire Saturday on Border Patrol agents in Chicago.
The shooter was behind the wheel of a black Jeep when they fired off the shots near 26th Street and Kedzie Avenue, as the agents conducted immigration enforcement operations on the city’s Southwest side, the US Department of Homeland Security wrote on X.
OBSERVATION - IIRC, the shooter has been captured.
***
Ilhan Omar went into a full rage, lashing out after other Somalian clans refused to back her clansman, Fateh and instead voted for Jacob Frey, calling for rival clans to be expelled and pushed out, especially since they were translating her Somalian speaking videos to the American audience.
Minnesota politics are turning into a Somalian primitive clan war
OBSERVATION - This is a potential development in the CW2 matrix I haven’t given much thought about. Fighting between various islamic factions. When moving towards a common goal, the mantra “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” will dissolve once that goal is achieved. Somalia is a hell hole because of this sectarian violence. Import the third world, become the third world.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Worsening situation with lack of ATCs rippling into people making travel plans for Thanksgiving. Flight cuts and uncertainty of the remaining flights causing a lot of problems.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Congress critters will be facing the talking heads today. Democrats increasingly trying to pin the developing woes of the shut down on republicans. Probably a lot regarding the 0bamacare / wuhan subsidy which has been at the front of the discussion over the past week. Democrat ‘compromise’ has been to add a one year extension to the 0bamacare subsidy as a solution to the current budget standoff. Discussions today may further expose democrats to the deliberate moves to make 0bamacare unmanageable in order to push for a universal health care run by the govt.
NOTE - for those of us who receive VA medical support - I wouldn’t wish govt run health care on my enemies.
No real evidence of any off ramp being suggested by democrats next week.
TRUMP Watch –
In addition to calling for the nuclear option to get past the filibuster, Trump is also calling for any health care subsidy to go directly to the people and not insurance groups.
Illegal Immigration –
Reports that it is anticipated that by the end of the year, nearly 700K will have been deported with over 2 million opting for self deportation.
For the sixth month straight, border interceptions have been essentially zero.
North/South Korea –
NK threatening SK and US as high level talks are taking place in Seoul. Pretty common bluster.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30-40 degree range, mostly cloudy with widely scattered showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s air defense shot down or suppressed 34 Russian drones overnight, including Shahed and Geran types. Out of 69 launched from multiple directions, 50 were Shaheds. Drones hit 9 locations across the north and east.
A Ukrainian strike hit the TPP‑1 power plant in Voronezh, Russia, which supplies four city districts and over a thousand businesses, including the key Voronezhsintezkauchuk plant. Following the hit, parts of the city were left without power.
Russian losses per 09/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+970 men
+5 tanks
+1 ACV
+19 artillery
ISW. The rate of Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction has temporarily slowed but will likely increase again in the coming days as Russian forces extend logistics and bring reinforcements in the area.
ISW. Geolocated footage published on November 6 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced into northern Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk), a relatively small quantity and area of assessed Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction compared to recent days.
Ukrainian military sources have indicated that Russian forces are somewhat slowing down their offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction while waiting for reinforcements and are attempting to establish defenses and extend logistics into southern Pokrovsk.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Recent ISW commentary on the fighting around Pokrovsk pretty much matches what I’ve expected. They have a larger staff and more resources scouring the fight than i do :). The ability for Russia to produce any meaningful resupply will be seriously challenged due to Ukraine FPV drones with artillery backup hitting those resupply missions long before they can get to Pokrovsk. Ukraine has a better reinforced supply train, though also threatened. As I’ve noted before, Ukraine is using old fishing nets to cover supply routes, causing drones to get snagged up and unable to strike target vehicles. Russians working towards the same but not as advanced as Ukraine.
A light drone attack overnight, so Friday nights attack may have been the big one for the week. Late reports indicated that a broad sector of Ukraine’s power grid was hit. Russia is just as vulnerable, with recent Ukrainian drones hitting not only petroleum families, but power plants and key power switchyards as well - spreading the misery of power outages over substantial areas of western Russia as well.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel waiting for Hamas to release the next body of an Israeli
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Al-Qassam Brigades: Israel bears full responsibility for the clashes with our fighters in Rafah who are defending themselves within an area under their control.
OBSERVATION - Hamas isn’t the only jihadi group in Gaza. AQB is a smaller group more closely aligned to Iran, due to being Shia versus the primary Sunni Hamas.
Hamas is charging ‘rent’ to those residing in tented refugee regions in southern Gaza.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
More Israeli actions including large air strikes as Hamas positions within the “Yellow Zone” continue to be reduced and rubbled. Rumbling that Hamas my delay or even withhold delivering the bodies of Israelis they still hold in exchange for safe passage of trapped Hamas forces continue to float around.
More pressure on Lebanon to uphold its promise to disarm Hezbollah. Clock is ticking down to the end of the month where a window of more intense Israeli operations may start, given that the US has given Lebanon until that time to get its act together.
Given the massive power and drinking water shortages in Iran, it is unlikely that the mullahs will initiate any kind of overt combat towards Israel or the US. Iran is expending a lot of money and materials trying to get Iraqi militias up to speed to be a threat to Israel. Those militias, however, are not really well liked in portions of Iraq. Even the shia in Iraq don’t really like these Iranian shia militias as they are a challenge to their power.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Over the past 4 weeks, Iran has exported nearly 2.3 million barrels of crude oil per day. These are numbers haven’t seen since the early half of 2018.
OBSERVATION - IIRC, this would be a sanctions violation. Iran rushing in to get these sales, filling the growing vacuum of Russian oil shutdowns before sanctions get ramped up against it.
***
Water crisis in Tehran and other locations continues to grow with civic officials struggling to come up with solutions. Evacuating a city that size will only create water shortages in the places they are evacuated to.
Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025
Threat level ELEVATED due to growing probably of expanded Israeli targeting of Hezbollah sites.
***
The Israeli army announces that it killed a Hezbollah member in an airstrike in the Barasheet area of southern Lebanon
***
Reports from Lebanon indicate that two senior U.S. National Security Council officials will arrive in Beirut tomorrow to meet with the Lebanese president and warn him to halt Hezbollah’s funding sources.
Syria -
Syria: on first day of the large scale anti-ISIS operation, 61 raids were conducted across different provinces and 71 individuals arrested. A number of medium and high-level IS figures were captured. Some of them were hiding in areas with Christian & Druze presence (Homs) Seized equipment includes weapons, IEDs, grenades, ammunition and a thermal scope
***
Interim Syrian president Joulani to meet with Trump today.
Misc of Note –
A “small” X class flare fired off directly at earth yesterday. NOAA and others assessing the size of the CME associated with it and the size of any solar storm.
Thanks Godzilla.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sweden’s King Carl Gustaf XVI sparked controversy at the UN COP30 summit in Brazil after questioning the push for higher Western climate payments.
“How much are we actually supposed to pay?” he asked, later adding, “Everyone has to take their own responsibilities and do the best they can.”
He also noted that EU states produce just 6% of global emissions, saying, “Europe produces only 6% of emissions and everyone still complains… But the rest of the world is much, much worse.”
https://x.com/osint613/status/1987587088468848950?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - All is not happy at the COP. Trump’s brutal takedown of the scam and crushing economic consequences hitting Europe is starting open eyes to the one sidedness of their annual proclamations and goals for reductions.
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
DATES TO NOTE -
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22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.
***
With the passage of the CR, the threat of SNAP/EBT riots have dropped to near zero.
***
The largest gang in the city of Chicago is known as the Latin Kings. It has more than 25,000 members, and the leaders of the gang have just issued a “shoot on sight” order for any federal agents that are involved in immigration enforcement operations in the city…
Needless to say, thousands of the members of the Latin Kings gang came into this country illegally. And they are willing to kill to keep from being deported.
https://patriot.tv/open-warfare-has-erupted-on-the-streets-of-chicago/
OBSERVATION - The illegal immigrant sector of the CW2 matrix is becoming increasingly hot. Gangs in Chicago several months ago before the current ICE surge began threatened officers. Now their aggressiveness if being further encouraged by the anti ICE actions of local and state govt. Over the weekend, Department of Homeland Security told Fox News in a statement that U.S. Border Patrol was conducting “immigration enforcement operations” near 26th Street and Kedzie Avenue when an unknown male driving a black Jeep fired shots at agents and fled the scene.
It getting hot out there.
***
Antifa and far-left rioters surrounded a campus building where a TPUSA event is taking place. They are urging violence & have been chanting in celebration of Charlie Kirk’s m—rder.
The violent Antifa attack at UC Berkeley on the TPUSA event was organized by the violent outsider Antifa group, By Any Means Necessary (BAMN). The group was involved in organizing prior Antifa attacks on the campus and in the city.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1988077883265265887?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Arrests of BAMN/Antifa elements reported in addition to assaults on TPUSA attendees and supporters.
BAMN is led by teachers. National organizer, Yvette Felarca, is a middle school teacher at Berkeley. Nov 2019 Felarca was convicted and sentenced to community service in an assault at the CA capitol during a counter protest in 2016.
This action was seen as an extension of the Berkeley riots of 2017.
February to October 2017, there were 11 demonstrations in the streets and parks of downtown Berkeley, many of them violent. The “Battles of Berkeley” It was most notable in regards to the arrival of “Based Stick Man”
Felarca is extremely violent.
OBSERVATION - It has been a while since BAMN popped into the headlines. Campus TPUSA meetings and rallies are beginning to see increased violence from the left and its presence on UC Berkeley was more than they would stand for. Expect similar, increased violence in other dark blue, marxist campuses.
***
Word coming from the organizers for the 22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition” that part of their direct action plan is to seize control of govt offices - probably congressional republicans.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The filibuster is busted and the CR is moving forward. Here are some key concessions from the Republicans
- Funds Government Through the End of January
The deal funds the government through Jan. 30. This would give appropriators time to come up with long-term bills to fund the government through the end of the fiscal year, which is Sept. 30.
- Includes 3 Full-Year Appropriations Bills
The agreement includes three full-year appropriations bills wrapped into one, also known as a “minibus.”
- Funds SNAP Through Fiscal Year
- Reverses Cuts to Government Workers
The measure reverses cuts to the federal workforce that occurred during the shutdown.
- Guarantees Vote on Extending Obamacare Subsidies
The bill provides that a vote will be held in the second week of December to extend the subsidies under the Affordable Care Act.
OBSERVATION - Some very minor concessions by the Republicans.
***
Democrats are in meltdown. Demands for schumer to step down as minority leader. Screams from democrats of “Trump hurting America” are being replaced with “We haven’t hurt America enough”.
As noted, very minor concessions. The extension of Obamacare Subsidies is coming for a separate vote and will not get the 60 votes needed to pass filibuster or even general vote in the senate.
The 0bamacare subsidies is becoming the attempt to refocus democrat unity following last nights bash up. They are trying to blame the republicans for the health care mess. I don’t think they are getting out of the starting blocks very well on that argument. Republican have to hammer in that fact that the subsidies were built into the original bill to end in 2025 and that the recent funding was a wuhan special act. This money will only go to big insurance companies who will raise rates to absorb the billions of dollars coming to them.
Remember, before 0bamacare, direct, non insurance payments for some procedures were half what the hospitals got from insurance companies. Those cash payments were banned by 0bamacare. Remember, we were to see our costs lowered by $2k/year, instead saw them rise. Remember we were supposed to keep our doctor and policy if we like it. - A lot to remember and remind the population of just who any health care crisis belongs to - the Democrats.
TRUMP Watch –
President Donald Trump has issued a broad pardon proclamation extending clemency to dozens of allies who faced prosecution over efforts to challenge the results of the 2020 presidential election.
The order, signed and released by the White House, declares the pardons part of an effort to correct what the president called a “grave national injustice” and move toward “national reconciliation.”
“This proclamation ends a grave national injustice perpetrated upon the American people following the 2020 presidential election and continues the process of national reconciliation,” the document reads.
The proclamation grants “a full, complete and unconditional pardon to all United States citizens for conduct relating to the advice, creation, organization, execution, submission, support, voting activities, participation in, or advocacy for or of any slate or proposed slate of presidential electors, whether or not recognized by any state or state official in connection with the 2020 presidential election, as well as for any conduct relating to their efforts to expose voting fraud and vulnerabilities in the 2020 presidential election.”
Among those named are several high-profile figures who became central to post-election investigations, including Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s former personal attorney and former mayor of New York; John Eastman, one of Trump’s lawyers involved in election-related legal strategies; and Tyler Bowyer, a senior member of Turning Point USA.
In total, the list includes more than 70 individuals.
OBSERVATION - Unraveling the parallel lawfare efforts of the democrats under biden. Good to get it done now before it can come to influence any midterm discussions.
Japan –
Japan’s new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, has been compared to the legendary Iron Lady, Margaret Thatcher. She’s living up to that comparison by bluntly telling a parliamentary committee on Friday that if communist China were to blockade Taiwan, it would threaten Japan. For daring to speak the truth, a Chinese consul general threatened to cut off her head on social media before deleting the post.
https://rairfoundation.com/chinese-diplomat-threatens-behead-new-japanese-prime-minister/
OBSERVATION - She is definitely bringing a new dynamic to the far east and interactions towards China.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Personnel Issues –
The Kremlin has begun involuntary partial reserve call-ups as part of its wider initiative to build out its active reserve, likely for use in combat in Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Troop build up has only one purpose - to try to accelerate the capture of as much of Ukraine before Russia’s reserves of funds, people and material hit the wall in 2026.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30-40 degree range, mostly cloudy with widely scattered showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 119 drones overnight, mostly Shaheds, targeting frontline regions and Odesa. Ukrainian air defenses downed or jammed 53 drones, but 59 struck 18 locations. Russia targeted the Odesa region, damaging energy and transport infrastructure
Ukrainian attack drones just successfully struck Russia’s Saratov oil refinery, setting the facility ablaze. The refinery, owned and operated by Russia’s Rosneft, processes about 7 million tons of crude oil per year.
Russian losses per 11/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1020 men
+1 ACV
+17 artillery
+1 MLRS
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces are exploiting heavy fog and poor weather to push light vehicles into southern Pokrovsk. Ukrainian sources confirm the conditions are hampering drone operations, making it harder to spot and strike Russian movements. However, Ukraine is still having a lot of success intercepting most of these vehicles before they reach Pokrovsk. Around 300 Russian troops now operating inside the city, according to Ukraine’s 7th Air Assault Corps.
ISW. The situation in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad area remains difficult as Ukrainian forces fight to hold the shoulders of the pocket and Russian forces continue to advance in the area. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk direction.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Pokrovsk continues to be the focus of fierce fighting. As noted, Russians again are trying to exploit fog to infiltrate more forces into the town. Currently they have teams in the Ukraine rear areas interrupting supply and support missions in addition to attacking from the rear, Ukraine front positions. 300 can cause a lot of trouble.
As ISW notes, the front line in Pokrovsk has a degree of fluidity with both sides gaining and losing. Ukraine reports that Russia has assembled a force of 50,000 to push the assault. As long as Ukraine can hold the flanks, the positions can be maintained. The counter attacks against the northern Russian salient is aiding that effort and diverting forces away from Pokrovsk.
Ukraine defenses have somewhat stabilized with reinforcements and this forces Russia to commit more troops in even riskier operations.
Putin is desperate for a victory here, and so far it seems out of reach in the near term. Should Russia eventually prevail, it will be at a substantial cost of men and equipment that will work to stall our operations across the rest of the front.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania activated its air defense overnight as Russian drones approached during the attack on Odesa. At 01:09, authorities reported a suspected drone crash about 5 km south of the border. Military teams are investigating what may be drone debris on Romanian territory.
Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level ADVISORY - OCT 26, 2025 -
Pakistan’s defense minister declared the nation “in a state of war” after a bombing in Islamabad left 12 people dead.
OBSERVATION - Claim being made that Afghan terrorists set of the bomb.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Standoff over the trapped 200 Hamas terrorists continue.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
US Envoy Witkoff:
The 200 “fighters” (of Hamas) trapped in Rafah may be the test for the model of Hamas disarmament. Will they be able to raise their hands, hand over their weapons, and leave...”
Hamas leadership says that it refuses to have the 200 surrender under any circumstances.
———INTERNATIONAL ————————
The Prime Minister’s Office clarified:
“There will be no presence of Turkish forces on the ground as part of the international force that will be responsible for enforcing the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip.”
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel standing firm, either the Hamas elements surrender, or die. There is no acceptable alternative.
Across the rest of Gaza, IDF continues to reduce the size of the Hamas controlled pocket within the “Yellow Zone”
In the north, Israel continues to keep the pressure on Hezbollah and the Lebanese govt by striking Hezbollah leaders and hitting ammo dumps and other Hezbollah facilities.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Following reports of extremely low water levels in Tehran, the authorities in Mashhad - the country’s second-largest city - have also announced that the city’s water reservoirs have dropped below 3% capacity.
In Tehran, there is a pollution alert on top of all the other power/water chaos.
***
Iran has reportedly developed a new uranium enrichment site codenamed “Pickaxe Mountain” adjacent to Natanz and has refused to allow international inspections of it.
In addition, Iran’s missile factories are said to be “working 24 hours a day” in order to mass-produce an arsenal in preparation for a potential Israeli attack.
If Israel strikes, Iran plans to drop thousands of missiles on Israel simultaneously as opposed to sending them in waves.
(AF Post)
OBSERVATION - They have to create a new site - the old one has been rubbled. Iran is throwing a ton of money trying to rearm both its ballistic missile wings as well as buff up their air defenses - all at a cost of ignoring epic power, water and pollution crisis’.
As with a lot of their threats in the past, the ‘thousands’ of missile threat is a paper tiger. Iran was maxed out on its missile launch capabilities in the last war, and lost a lot of TELs in the process as well as a lot of silo based systems. It will take considerable years for them to produce enough launch sites and vehicles to lobe thousands of missiles in one salvo towards Israel.
Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025
Threat level ELEVATED due to growing probably of expanded Israeli targeting of Hezbollah sites.
***
The Iranian regime has managed to smuggle at least $1 billion to its terrorist proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon despite heavy sanctions this year, top officials at the U.S. Treasury Department say.
Iran boasts funding via cryptocurrency and smuggling by third party elements.
OBSERVATION - Corruption is part and parcel for much of the middle east. You can bet some Lebanese govt official has become wealthy looking the other way.
***
Local Lebanese channels report fires breaking out in multiple areas following IDF airstrikes on Hezbollah positions. Reports that ammo dumps being targeted.
Thanks Godzilla.
Antifa and far-left rioters surrounded a campus building where a TPUSA event is taking place. They are urging violence & have been chanting in celebration of Charlie Kirk’s m—rder.
The violent Antifa attack at UC Berkeley on the TPUSA event was organized by the violent outsider Antifa group, By Any Means Necessary (BAMN). The group was involved in organizing prior Antifa attacks on the campus and in the city.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1988077883265265887?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
The FBI needs to do a deep dive into Antifa...
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