Heads up - There will be no post for tomorrow, Monday. Will try to catch up on Tuesday
CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025
Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.
DATES TO NOTE -
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ONGOING - EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.
22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”
MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.
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WEEKEND - Pretty much the same level of warning as prior weekends. Mostly sign waving, vocal assemblies with low probability of violence. Situations can change quickly so be alert out there.
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Authorities are searching for a man who allegedly opened fire Saturday on Border Patrol agents in Chicago.
The shooter was behind the wheel of a black Jeep when they fired off the shots near 26th Street and Kedzie Avenue, as the agents conducted immigration enforcement operations on the city’s Southwest side, the US Department of Homeland Security wrote on X.
OBSERVATION - IIRC, the shooter has been captured.
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Ilhan Omar went into a full rage, lashing out after other Somalian clans refused to back her clansman, Fateh and instead voted for Jacob Frey, calling for rival clans to be expelled and pushed out, especially since they were translating her Somalian speaking videos to the American audience.
Minnesota politics are turning into a Somalian primitive clan war
OBSERVATION - This is a potential development in the CW2 matrix I haven’t given much thought about. Fighting between various islamic factions. When moving towards a common goal, the mantra “the enemy of my enemy is my friend” will dissolve once that goal is achieved. Somalia is a hell hole because of this sectarian violence. Import the third world, become the third world.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Worsening situation with lack of ATCs rippling into people making travel plans for Thanksgiving. Flight cuts and uncertainty of the remaining flights causing a lot of problems.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Congress critters will be facing the talking heads today. Democrats increasingly trying to pin the developing woes of the shut down on republicans. Probably a lot regarding the 0bamacare / wuhan subsidy which has been at the front of the discussion over the past week. Democrat ‘compromise’ has been to add a one year extension to the 0bamacare subsidy as a solution to the current budget standoff. Discussions today may further expose democrats to the deliberate moves to make 0bamacare unmanageable in order to push for a universal health care run by the govt.
NOTE - for those of us who receive VA medical support - I wouldn’t wish govt run health care on my enemies.
No real evidence of any off ramp being suggested by democrats next week.
TRUMP Watch –
In addition to calling for the nuclear option to get past the filibuster, Trump is also calling for any health care subsidy to go directly to the people and not insurance groups.
Illegal Immigration –
Reports that it is anticipated that by the end of the year, nearly 700K will have been deported with over 2 million opting for self deportation.
For the sixth month straight, border interceptions have been essentially zero.
North/South Korea –
NK threatening SK and US as high level talks are taking place in Seoul. Pretty common bluster.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30-40 degree range, mostly cloudy with widely scattered showers
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s air defense shot down or suppressed 34 Russian drones overnight, including Shahed and Geran types. Out of 69 launched from multiple directions, 50 were Shaheds. Drones hit 9 locations across the north and east.
A Ukrainian strike hit the TPP‑1 power plant in Voronezh, Russia, which supplies four city districts and over a thousand businesses, including the key Voronezhsintezkauchuk plant. Following the hit, parts of the city were left without power.
Russian losses per 09/11/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+970 men
+5 tanks
+1 ACV
+19 artillery
ISW. The rate of Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction has temporarily slowed but will likely increase again in the coming days as Russian forces extend logistics and bring reinforcements in the area.
ISW. Geolocated footage published on November 6 indicates that Russian forces recently marginally advanced into northern Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk), a relatively small quantity and area of assessed Russian advances in the Pokrovsk direction compared to recent days.
Ukrainian military sources have indicated that Russian forces are somewhat slowing down their offensive operations in the Pokrovsk direction while waiting for reinforcements and are attempting to establish defenses and extend logistics into southern Pokrovsk.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Recent ISW commentary on the fighting around Pokrovsk pretty much matches what I’ve expected. They have a larger staff and more resources scouring the fight than i do :). The ability for Russia to produce any meaningful resupply will be seriously challenged due to Ukraine FPV drones with artillery backup hitting those resupply missions long before they can get to Pokrovsk. Ukraine has a better reinforced supply train, though also threatened. As I’ve noted before, Ukraine is using old fishing nets to cover supply routes, causing drones to get snagged up and unable to strike target vehicles. Russians working towards the same but not as advanced as Ukraine.
A light drone attack overnight, so Friday nights attack may have been the big one for the week. Late reports indicated that a broad sector of Ukraine’s power grid was hit. Russia is just as vulnerable, with recent Ukrainian drones hitting not only petroleum families, but power plants and key power switchyards as well - spreading the misery of power outages over substantial areas of western Russia as well.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israel waiting for Hamas to release the next body of an Israeli
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Al-Qassam Brigades: Israel bears full responsibility for the clashes with our fighters in Rafah who are defending themselves within an area under their control.
OBSERVATION - Hamas isn’t the only jihadi group in Gaza. AQB is a smaller group more closely aligned to Iran, due to being Shia versus the primary Sunni Hamas.
Hamas is charging ‘rent’ to those residing in tented refugee regions in southern Gaza.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
More Israeli actions including large air strikes as Hamas positions within the “Yellow Zone” continue to be reduced and rubbled. Rumbling that Hamas my delay or even withhold delivering the bodies of Israelis they still hold in exchange for safe passage of trapped Hamas forces continue to float around.
More pressure on Lebanon to uphold its promise to disarm Hezbollah. Clock is ticking down to the end of the month where a window of more intense Israeli operations may start, given that the US has given Lebanon until that time to get its act together.
Given the massive power and drinking water shortages in Iran, it is unlikely that the mullahs will initiate any kind of overt combat towards Israel or the US. Iran is expending a lot of money and materials trying to get Iraqi militias up to speed to be a threat to Israel. Those militias, however, are not really well liked in portions of Iraq. Even the shia in Iraq don’t really like these Iranian shia militias as they are a challenge to their power.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Over the past 4 weeks, Iran has exported nearly 2.3 million barrels of crude oil per day. These are numbers haven’t seen since the early half of 2018.
OBSERVATION - IIRC, this would be a sanctions violation. Iran rushing in to get these sales, filling the growing vacuum of Russian oil shutdowns before sanctions get ramped up against it.
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Water crisis in Tehran and other locations continues to grow with civic officials struggling to come up with solutions. Evacuating a city that size will only create water shortages in the places they are evacuated to.
Lebanon - Threat Level - WARNING November 7, 2025
Threat level ELEVATED due to growing probably of expanded Israeli targeting of Hezbollah sites.
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The Israeli army announces that it killed a Hezbollah member in an airstrike in the Barasheet area of southern Lebanon
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Reports from Lebanon indicate that two senior U.S. National Security Council officials will arrive in Beirut tomorrow to meet with the Lebanese president and warn him to halt Hezbollah’s funding sources.
Syria -
Syria: on first day of the large scale anti-ISIS operation, 61 raids were conducted across different provinces and 71 individuals arrested. A number of medium and high-level IS figures were captured. Some of them were hiding in areas with Christian & Druze presence (Homs) Seized equipment includes weapons, IEDs, grenades, ammunition and a thermal scope
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Interim Syrian president Joulani to meet with Trump today.
Misc of Note –
A “small” X class flare fired off directly at earth yesterday. NOAA and others assessing the size of the CME associated with it and the size of any solar storm.
Thanks Godzilla.