Threat Matrix 2025

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WATCH as of Sep 28, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025

CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

Authorities nabbed an armed illegal immigrant after he allegedly placed a $10,000 bounty calling for the deaths of federal immigration agents in Dallas, Texas. Agents continue to face mounting threats all across the nation.

Mexican illegal immigrant Eduardo Aguilar called for “10 dudes in Dallas with determination who aren’t afraid to [two skull emojis],” and offered “10K for each ICE agent” in an Oct. 9 TikTok post, according to the Department of Homeland Security. The latest threat comes just weeks after a sniper opened fire on an ICE facility in Dallas, killing two detainees despite intending to target federal agents.

https://www.dailywire.com/news/armed-illegal-immigrant-arrested-after-offering-bounty-of-10k-for-each-ice-agent-in-dallas

***
9th circuit court rules trump can deploy NG to Portland.

A U.S. appeals court has ruled that the U.S. government can deploy National Guard troops for federalized service in Portland. A judge had previously sided with Oregon Democrats, believing the argument that it was not needed.

OBSERVATION - Follows same transjectory as the LA decision. Expect a similar decision in the Chicago appeal. Title 10 is pretty straight forward and NG deployments fit like a hand in glove to those requirements.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - NK 2.0 is drifting away into he past, a big geriatric nothing burger.

Freeing up NG for Portland may likely cause violence to flair up for a short period as Antifa tests the mettle of these forces. City leadership will likely squeal and push an appeal to the full 9th circuit, but that would be a waste of taxpayer money, thought that hasn’t stopped them before.

The lack luster NK 2.0 may cause a slow down in Antifa attacks on facilities, but may result in targeted attacks /assassination attempts on officers and families. Big hit money is floating around out there (see above) providing an incentive as well.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

GasBuddy reports that the U.S. national average price of gasoline has dropped under $3 per gallon for the first time since 2020.

OBSERVATION - Good and bad news. Cheaper prices is wonderful, however drops like this can also be a harbinger of worsening economic conditions that could reflect a recession.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Democrats continue to refuse to cross the isle and support the clean CR. Now the republicans are putting forth separate funding bills for essential govt workers. Democrats have already rejected an earlier bill to fund the military, and will likely reject this bill as well. They will reject any CR that doesn’t contain their expensive political add ons - to include funding health care for illegals.

Things are pretty flat on the political commentary side over NK 2.0. There have been some rumblings that the actual turnout may have been in the 3 million range, but that hasn’t been confirmed. I don’t believe it was near the 7 million mark, which is likely overstated, but 3 million seems kinda low too.

TRUMP Watch –

Leftists have their underwear in a knot over renovations being done at the WH saying it is unprecedented. Sorry, FDR made substantial renovations and Truman redid the whole building for example.

Illegal Immigration –

DHS announces the start of “Operation River Wall” to secure the Rio Grande against “illegal immigration, narco-terrorists, and other criminal activity at our Southern Border. The Coast Guard will surge response boats, shallow watercraft, command and control assets, and tactical teams; beginning with more than 100 boats and hundreds of personnel.

OBSERVATION - The Rio Grande region has historically been the major smuggling axis from Mexico into the US. I’m not sure of the status of the wall in this sector, so it may still be under construction, still allowing illegal traffic.

China -

FOLLOW UP - On October 17, China’s Ministry of National Defense announced that the Communist Party’s Central Committee and Central Military Commission had, after investigations, removed nine senior officers from their posts in the People’s Liberation Army.

The stunning announcement occurred on the eve of the long-delayed Fourth Plenum of the Party’s 20th Central Committee, scheduled to start tomorrow, October 20, and continue for four days. On the agenda are crucial economic matters, including the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan, which covers the rest of the decade, 2026-2030.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/10/has-xi-jinping-lost-control-of-chinas-military-and-china-itself/

OBSERVATION - Some analysts are theorizing that the removals were not directed by Xi, but by his political enemies. They point to the removal of the most senior of the nine officers axed on the 17th was General He Weidong, the second-ranked vice chairman of the Commission and Xi Jinping’s No. 1 loyalist in the PLA. The general had gained prominence as Xi’s top enforcer in the military.

Bottom line - intrigue and a very slim chance Xi will be removed. Xi has been getting increased pressure from economic failures of the past 4 years but I’m not convinced that a soft coup is going to happen.

Japan –

Its official. Japanese parliament has elected Sanae Takaichi as the first female Prime Minister of Japan.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

A planned meeting between advisors to Presidents Trump and Putin has been postponed. The delay follows a lack of progress in talks between Marco Rubio and Sergey Lavrov, who had differing expectations regarding ending the war - CNN

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine is ready to stop hostilities along the current front line. The current line of contact should become the starting point for negotiations, – joint statement by Zelenskyy and other European leaders

Overnight Russia launched 2 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 4 3-300 missiles and 98 strike drones of different types, - Ukrainian air forces

Russian losses per 21/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff.

+1130 men
+8 tanks
+37 AFVs
+23 artillery

Russian assault crushed near Mala Tokmachka on the Orikhiv front. Around 2 companies from the 71st Motor Rifle Regiment advanced with 26 vehicles, including tanks, BMPs, BTRs, and “Tigrs.” By 20:00, Ukrainian forces had destroyed 2 tanks, 12 BMPs, 6 BTRs, and 2 Tigrs. The rest were either wiped out or fleeing.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Low drone/missile activity, though I find it interesting of the minor change in tactics, including missiles to low numbers of drones. In the past , drone counts were much higher before substantial numbers of missiles were added to the mix.

Growing evidence that Russian attempts to force breakthroughs is failing as up to battalion sized units are being thrown against Ukraine defenses only to be soundly defeated. Not sure if the daily count of Russian losses includes the assault near Mala Tokmachka, but this is one of the highest counts of tank and APV losses I’ve seen in quite a while. This is along the southern part of the front along a road that leads eventually to Zaporizhzhia. Months ago there were rumors of a planned Russian attack in this sector. Whether or not this is part of that is uncertain at this time. If it is, then such an offensive is off to a pretty bad foot.

Russian has continued to receive heavy losses in the Pokrovsk sector, north of the fortress town. The breakthrough there earlier this summer has been decimated and only a few pockets of isolated Russian forces reportedly remain. Until now, this was the main area Russia had thrown what little tanks and armor it had available to bring relief to the isolated forces.

On a strategic level, more talk and that’s all about a ceasefire and peace settlement. Its not going to get anywhere in the near term, only when Russia feels a greater economic pinch from Ukraine petroleum strikes and stricter economic sanction will the needle start to move.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Ceasefire still continues to hold but barely.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

VP Vance in Israel on ceasefire talks and inspections

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Hamas ceasefire violations continue:

Earlier today (Monday), the IDF identified several terrorists who crossed the yellow line and approached IDF troops operating in the Shejaiya area, posing an immediate threat to them. They were taken out.

Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz instructed the IDF to send a clear message to Hamas leaders in Gaza through the American supervision mechanism:

- Every Hamas terrorist found beyond the yellow line in the territory controlled by Israel must evacuate immediately. Hamas leaders will bear responsibility for any incident.

- Anyone who remains in the area will be targeted without any further warning, in order to allow IDF forces to operate freely and immediately against any threat.

***
Following the return of the body of Tal Haimi, the bodies of 15 more deceased hostages are still in the Gaza Strip.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Palestinian outlets report Israeli operations tonight across nearly 20 towns and villages around Nablus

OBSERVATION - Hamas and other radical jihadists have been attempting to gain a foothold in Judea and Samaria for years now. They have been hampered in the past by the PA who views them as a threat to their rule.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

The Qatar’s Emir sharply criticized Israel and accused it of violating the ceasefire in Gaza, without mentioning the terrorist organization and the serious incident in Rafah where 2 IDF soldiers were killed

OBSERVATION - No mention of the violation and attack by Hamas causing it. Qatar again showing that they are not the honest broker to be involved in this ceasefire.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas continues to walk a thin line with Israel ready to pulverize remaining areas of Gaza should a serious breach of the agreement occur again.

Nearly half of the remains of Israeli hostages have been returned. However, they do not hold the leverage that the living hostages had, but Hamas is attempting to milk as much anti-Israeli sentiment out of them as possible.

Near term, I expect Hamas to continue to probe Israel positions. The ultimate goal would be to be able to snatch some soldiers for more hostage conditions to resume. They ‘ve done similar in the past. I don’t think Hamas has enough reorganized force to go toe to toe with the IDF at this stage and will need a longer period to reconstitute its forces. In doing so, they could potentially see the wrath of Israel, with Trump’s full support, fall on them again. Trump does a lot of warning which Hamas may see as weakness, but they had better remember that same pattern of talk towards Iran just before the big bunker busters fell. That is a tool available for the US to use to directly punish Hamas. We are not going in on the ground to disarm them at this stage. However, the peace ‘partiners’ of Turkey, Egypt and Qatar are not really being forward about the effort to disarm either. Eventually, that will require a military solution as their pseudo diplomatic solution is failing.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iran announced: The agreement with the IAEA is canceled
The Secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, Ali Larijani, announced today the cancellation of the agreement reached in Cairo last month, which was intended to allow a gradual return of supervision and inspections at nuclear sites in Iran.

OBSERVATION - That move is unlikely to cause the snapback measures to be removed, and likely will reinforce them instead.

Lebanon -

American Envoy to Lebanon and Syria, Tom Barrack:

“If Lebanon continues to hesitate on the disarmament of Hezbollah, Israel will act unilaterally.”

OBSERVATION - This has been the state of S Lebanon since the ceasefire. Israel has already continued to act unilaterally to strike Hezbollah targets. Not clear at this stage if IDF will advance northward again to clear out the region in detail or not. However, that is not off the table.

Colombia -

With the snap of a finger, Colombian President Gustavo Petro said they will need to “get rid of Trump” if the U.S. President doesn’t get rid of himself. In that snap, he made certain his words were not confused for some call for minor political action. Without directly saying the words, Petro insinuated that President Trump needs to be assassinated.

In a tense sit-down that left even the interviewer rattled, Petro declared his growing disdain for President Trump. Univision’s Daniel Coronell was at the presidential palace in Bogotá when Petro made the inflammatory remarks that are now sending shockwaves across borders. His intention was clear. The threat is real.

https://thelibertydaily.com/colombian-president-issues-not-so-veiled-threat-get/

OBSERVATION - Things have been collapsing since Trump was elected. Petro is a hard core leftist in the midst of a region that is shifting to the right.

***
Colombia has recalled its U.S. ambassador after a sharp diplomatic clash between Presidents Petro and Trump over American strikes on suspected drug boats in the Caribbean.

Most of today will be general summaries of the past couple days. I know I probably missed putting down some items but I didn’t want to ball things up that much.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

***
Weekend protest forecast.

With the NK 2.0 in the rear view mirror, this weekend appears to returning to a number of smaller protests covering a variety of topics across the nation. At this time, none appear to be posing a threat of violence, though conditions locally can change very rapidly.

Significant areas of violence continue to be the cities listed above as well as some in the Alameda area near the Coast Guard facility that was going to host govt agents set to take actions in San Fran.

***
SNAP -

There is a growing storm across sectors of social media of people threatening to loot and steal from stores should their SNAP benefits get cut next month. Included in this is a threat to steal from people taking their groceries to their vehicles. By far the most of these threats are coming from blacks, who historically have resorted to violence - see recent Floyd riots for example. The aggrieved left has been looking for a trigger event to up the violence, and this may be it.

STRONGLY recommend that one makes plans to enlarge their grocery purchases BEFORE Nov 1, especially in and around blue urban areas where historical rioting and looting have occurred. Do your best to avoid stores the first week of November. For you preppers out there, review your stocks for an early testing, fill in gaps in storage needs now.

It is absolutely critical that those that physically go to a grocery store, be prepared to protect themselves and their groceries on their way back to load said groceries into their vehicle.

RELATED - Kalifornia Gov Newscum has ordered the deployment of NG forces to ‘assist’ food banks in the central valley. The claim is that they will help with the logistics, but an unstated mission is facility protection from potential looting once SNAP and EBT funds are stopped next month.

***

Democrat Texas state Rep. Jolanda Jones has sparked outrage after threatening that Democrats will “wipe out” every Republican and, in a graphic metaphor, “slash” their political opponents’ throats.
Jones framed the violent rhetoric as part of a call for Democrats to fight harder for voters they are losing.

She made the remarks on CNN’s “Erin Burnett OutFront,” arguing Democrats must change tactics to regain support among black and low-income voters.
Jones said the party needs to “fight” in ways she characterized as tougher and less restrained.

“I’m from the hood, okay?!” she raged on CNN
.
https://slaynews.com/news/texas-democrat-threatens-wipe-out-republicans-slashing-throats-hood-okay/

OBSERVATION - More inflammatory rhetoric from leftists. She believes violence is the way to gain support from blacks and low income voters.

***
(FO) Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA) said House Oversight Committee Democrats plan to host a “master ICE tracker” on the Oversight Committee website in the next few weeks. Garcia said the website will allow the public to report ICE movements and operations nationwide. Rep. Bryan Steil (R-WI) said the House Administration Committee will not allow Garcia to put the ICE tracker on any House website.

OBSERVATION - The left continues to threaten the lives of federal agents AND THEIR FAMILIES with this kind of doxxing effort.

***
Forward Observer reports what leadership of the “No Kings” is plotting next -

During an all-call yesterday, Indivisible, the country’s largest protest organizer and the main organizer behind the burgeoning Color Revolution movement discussed the following:

One organizer said the next goal is “to build a culture of defiance… [W]e basically need to make resistance cool so that people, one, want to join our movement and, two, people get socialized to these new and different tactics to fight authoritarianism.”
She added: “I do have to be real with you that this type of work is new in our toolbox and the American public needs to learn all of these new tactics and we’re going to need to be able to leverage these types of tactics at scale, en masse, if we are going to free America from rising fascism.”

In an interview, Indivisible co-executive director Ezra Levin said, “There will be more No Kings protests,” adding that boycotts will be part of the escalation. “I think we got to go into boycotts and I don’t think there’s anything more American than boycotts… Boycotts are the way that we exercise our power in between these margins. I think it’s a major tool at our disposal.”

FO ANALYSIS - Indicates that these elements are trying to shift from the Protest phase to the Resistance phase.

“direct action, on the other hand, is an attempt to directly intervene or interfere against those people or their policies. These pressure campaigns can be economic in nature (in the case of strikes and boycotts), social in the case of civil disobedience, or political in the case of mass political defiance, such as deliberately breaking relatively minor laws resulting in mass arrests, which get publicized in the media as a fascist dictatorship attacking peaceful protestors.

MORE OBSERVATIONS - They, as well as I, project these ‘direct action’ events to increase in number and intensity as the midterms approach. As noted, a key element is trying to get a key triggering event to build upon for additional support.

At this point, just what do they want to boycott? They’ve made many calls in the past, but they’ve never gained much traction. The Tesla action backfired on them ,so just who will receive their wrath this time ?

***
The Trump administration was deploying more than 100 federal agents near San Francisco, CA. However, after speaking to the mayor of SF, Trump stood down saying he’s going to let the mayor continue to deal with the crime, and the feds will monitor for now.

***
Illinois Federal District Judge Jeffrey Cummings ruled that ICE agents could face contempt of court or criminal charges for violating a Biden-era consent decree on immigration enforcement. The judge extended the consent decree, which blocks warrantless immigration arrests in Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri, Kentucky and Kansas, until February 2026.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

The Energy Department announced Tuesday that it plans to buy oil for delivery in December and January, using a portion of the $171 million from President Donald Trump’s signature tax and spending law allotted for crude purchases.
“While this process won’t be complete overnight, these actions are an important step in strengthening our energy security and reversing the costly and irresponsible energy policies of the last administration,” Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in a statement.
West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, is down about 30% since its peak in mid-January. It traded at about $58 a barrel on Tuesday, near the lowest since 2021.
That makes it an ideal time to refill the reserve, which at 408 million bbls is only about 60% full. But the Energy Department only has $171 million to buy crude — or enough for roughly 3 million bbls, based on today’s price.

OBSERVATION - NOTE, it will take year and billions of dollars to replace the oil biden syphoned off to bolster the democrats during there last midterm elections. We are at about 394 million barrels-about 55% of capacity
Initially, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright estimated it would take $20 billion and years to accomplish Trump’s goal of refilling the reserve to its maximum capacity.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The United States reportedly carried out its eighth strike against an alleged drug-smuggling vessel Tuesday night, this time off the Pacific coast of South America.
At least two aboard the vessel were killed in the attack — the first outside the
Caribbean, where the previous seven strikes occurred since Sept. 2 — sources told CBS News.

POLITICAL FRONT –

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries just vowed to investigate the people who made private donations to President Trump’s White House ballroom project.

Jeffries said, without evidence, that the donors were probably using the donations to curry favor with the Trump administration.

“And all of this is going to have to be investigated. It will. All of this will have to be uncovered. It will. And these people are going to be held accountable, no matter how long it takes,” Jeffries continued. “And that’s a warning to all of these people participating in this scheming to manipulate taxpayer dollars and, of course, to destroy the people’s house. The White House belongs to the American people. It doesn’t belong to Donald Trump.”

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/amy-curtis/2025/10/23/hakeem-jeffries-threatens-ballroom-donors-n2665358

OBSERVATION - Jeffries’ threat has been out there for a few days now, but it reveals the revenge mentality of the left. Should they some how regain power, the attacks on US citizens for legal actions will make Stalin’s purges pale in comparison. James (Golem) Carvel said something like he wants to see Trump supporters, arrested, put into orange jump suit and publicly marched to detention camps. We’ve already seen a sampling of this under biden and the plandemic. What they want to do for revenge will be orders of magnitude bigger.

***
Senate Democrats rejected legislation on Thursday afternoon that would have ensured U.S. service members and some federal workers do not miss a paycheck during the government shutdown.

Senators voted 54 to 45 largely along party lines to advance the bill sponsored by Republican Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, falling short of the Senate’s 60-vote threshold. Just three Democrats — Sens. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania and Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff of Georgia — crossed party lines to back the legislation.

Johnson’s Shutdown Fairness Act would have paid military personnel and federal workers reporting to work during the shutdown, including Transportation Security Administration (TSA) agents, air traffic controllers and Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers.

All federal employees are poised to miss a paycheck on Friday due to the continued funding lapse.

https://libertyunyielding.com/2025/10/24/democrats-reject-bipartisan-bill-to-pay-troops-essential-federal-workers-during-shutdown/

China -

The Chinese Communist Party formally agreed to the latest round of purges which included the former head of the Southern Theater Command, heads of the Eastern Theater Command and People’s Armed Police, and political commissars at the heads of the armed forces branches.

OBSERVATION - First, looks like Xi is riding this one out and second, the impact to Taiwan invasion planning may have taken a hit as some of these heads commander forces opposite the island and would have been involved in any invasion.

North/South Korea –

North Korea test-fired two hypersonic missiles on Wednesday, prompting protests from U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, which described the tests as unlawful and destabilizing.

State media Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Thursday reported North Korea’s Missile Administration launched two hypersonic missiles from Ryokpho District, Pyongyang Municipality, toward the northeast. The projectiles reportedly hit the target point on the tableland of Kwesang Peak in Orang County, North Hamgyong Province.

OBSERVATION - The test comes only days prior to next week’s annual summit of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Forum in South Korea, which is set to be attended by a number of world leaders including U.S. President Donald J. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

putin’s pulling the US’ chain in full effect the past few days.

- Initial discussions of Trump authorizing Tomahawks to Ukraine
- putin all forward for a meeting with Trump in Hungary
- Trump pulls back on Tomahawks thinking negotiations are working
- putin launches big strike on Ukraine
- Hungary talks cancelled.

Only this time, Trump has taken the biggest sanctions measures to date, nailing Rosneft and Lukoil. War damage from Ukraine drone strikes has significantly damaged the Russia industry, US pushing India from Russia oil and now a much more significant sanction that will definitely impact China.

Now putin’s PR is that Russia is a victim of American aggression

Economic Impact –

The U.S. Treasury has imposed new sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, citing Moscow’s refusal to pursue peace in Ukraine. Treasury says the move aims to cut Kremlin war funding and support President Trump’s push for a ceasefire.

OBSERVATION - This is a biggie, making even China pause in its Russian oil procurements.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

During the night of Oct 23-24, Russia launched 128 attack drones, including around 90 Shaheds, from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defense shot down or jammed 72 of them across the north, south, and east. 47 drones hit 10 locations.

Russian losses per 24/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+910 men
+1 tank
+5 ACVs
+34 artillery
+1 MLRS

NOTE - days missed saw a large drone / missile attack by Russia, Ukraine drones hammering key Russian oil and defense facilities and around the 1000 losses levels.

Notable strikes by Ukrainian attack drones saw them penetrating over 1,000 miles of Russian airspace to successfully hit the Plastmass explosives plant. Another attack had drones penetrated 1200 km of Russian airspace to successfully strike the Dagnotekh oil refinery.

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Bolohivka of Kharkiv region and Pershotravneve(Zlahoda) of Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, of Dronivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine and Bolohivka of Kharkiv region and Pershotravneve(Zlahoda) of Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine

Analysis and Future Operations —

Nothing significant to change the face of the war happened the past few days. Drone/missile attack cycle continued, as well as moderately heavy fighting locally along the front. The biggest thing was watching the geopolitical play with Russia and the US. Trump is pulling out the bigger sanctions, even though they may impact some allies as well. As the war bleeds the Russian man-pool down, the assault on Russia’s bread and butter economic support -the oil industry - is seeing that bleed dry between Ukrainian strikes on refineries and pipelines on one side and now strong sanctions on the other.

Russian oil economy losses will play into analysis by many OSINT elements that 2026 will be the watershed year for the Russian military. Russia will be hard pressed to keep the numbers conscripted on the front, keep replacing tanks and other armor and pay for it without going into debt big time. At the present rate of advance, it will take Russia over a decade to seize eastern Ukraine. As long as Ukraine receives stable military support from the west, Russia has no capability at this time to speed the advance up if at all.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Ceasefire still continues to hold but barely.

- SecState Rubio meets with Netanyahu.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

US Secretary of State Rubio lands in Israel and meets with Netanyahu: “There is more work ahead of us, we intend to do the impossible – we will overcome the obstacles and get there”

***
The U.S. Central Command opened a Civil-Military Coordination Center in Israel, Oct. 17, marking the formal establishment of a main coordination hub for Gaza assistance five days after world leaders signed a U.S.-brokered plan to permanently end the war between Israel and Hamas.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Israel makes it clear it doesn’t want the PA involved in Gaza’s postwar administration.

***
Israeli PM Netanyahu warned POTUS that any Turkish presence in Gaza — military, security, or civilian — is a “red line for Israel,” reports @MaarivOnline, citing political sources.

Israel’s opposition is due to Türkiye’s strong ties to Hamas and its stances on Israel.

***
Dead hostages continue to come out of Gaza in small numbers. Israel accuses Hamas of deliberately slowing the repatriation of the remains.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Trump warns Netanyahu not to annex Judea and Samaria.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi’s have been generally quiet over the past week

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The elephant the room continues to be the resistance of Hamas to be disarmed and moved out of power. The negotiation team needs to realize this and start ramping up plan B for disarmament - military action. Until that happens, there will be no peace in the region.

Israel is continuing pressure Hezbollah throughout Lebanon. In spite of talking big, the Lebanese govt has done very little to disarm Hezbollah. Hence, Israeli drone and bomb strikes will continue into the distant future.

Lebanon -

The Israeli army carried out an airstrike on an alleged Hezbollah weapons depot in the Nabatieh region of southern Lebanon, military spokesperson Avichay Adraee said

***
An Israeli intelligence official tells Saudi Al-Arabiya that Hezbollah is ramping up efforts to rebuild its strength north of the Litani River and accuses Beirut of hesitating to act against Hezbollah. “We may act unilaterally and the consequences will be dire,” the official said.

Turkey –

The Turkish parliament has voted in favor of extending the Turkish military deployment to Iraq and Syria for another three years

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Air defense batteries have been deployed along the Caribbean coast.

Two U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers flew a training mission over the Caribbean Sea on Thursday, marking the second time in a week that long-range U.S. bombers have flown over the region, according to two sources familiar with the operation.

OBSERVATION - The B1s were accompanied by F35s and had a C3 bird in the air as well. Definitely designed to raise the pucker factor of Venezulan forces. Additioanlly, Trump mentioned action on the ‘ground’, raising concerns of a strike on Venezuelan territory and not just at sea.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

Portland OR - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Chicago IL - Local Threat Level - WARNING as of Oct 25, 2025
Los Angeles CA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
Seattle WA - Local Threat Level - ADVISORY as of Sep 28, 2025
SF Bay area - Local Threat - ADVISORY as of Oct 25, 2025.

CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

NOTE - Addition of the SF Bay area and downgrade in Portland and Seattle.

***
Weekend protest forecast.

***
A federal appeals court on Friday temporarily blocked President Trump from deploying Oregon National Guard troops to Portland after a judge issued a Temporary Retraining Order (TRO).
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals temporarily reinstated Judge Karin Immergut’s TRO on Friday after it halted an order issued by a three-judge panel from the court earlier in the week.

OBSERVATION - More judicial activism attempts to stop Trump’s legal activation of the NG units. They probably fear a USSC stomping and are looking to cover their rears.

***
Emergency funds held by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) cannot be used to keep the food stamp program going if members of Congress don’t reach a funding agreement, according to a memorandum obtained by The Epoch Times.

The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), which provides food stamps to some 42 million Americans living in low-income households, is set to run out of allocated money on Nov. 1.

The USDA, which had declined to say whether it would utilize the estimated $6 billion in contingency funds it has if Congress does not clear new funding, said in the new memo that “contingency funds are not legally available to cover regular benefits.”

OBSERVATION - Unlike other areas that Trump has been able to shift funds for, SNAP and EBT appear to be stuck. Social media continues to see ample numbers of threats to loot and rob if these funds are not renewed on the first.

***
From a couple days ago. Officers opened fire on a U-Haul truck that reversed toward security personnel outside Coast Guard Base Alameda during protests over a planned immigration crackdown. The driver was wounded and taken for physical and mental evaluation. The FBI is leading the investigation.

OBSERVATIONS - Even overnight there has been follow-on unrest in the bay area with more direct action protests. This U-Haul incident is interesting in that they tried to BACK the truck into the gate, possibly thinking that it would provide adequate protection from bullets until the breach was made. The driver FAFO’d and discovered the thin aluminum provided very little protection. The tactic did show the attempt at far greater aggression. Currently any surge in NG or federal forces is on hold due to Trump’s conversation with the Mayor and major business leaders (many friends in a way with Trump) who convinced him to let current law enforcement efforts to continue.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Americans who view economy as the top problem has PLUMMETED since President Trump took office

“A drop of 20 POINTS! Across ALL political groups!”

“Last year, 43% at this time...24% now!”

“It has been FALLING through the FLOOR...the percentage of Americans who say inflation is the top problem is ALSO falling! That’s surprising, given all the news we hear about the economy!”

In the average midterm election, 35% say economy is top problem. Today? 24%.

“It’s lower than we’ve historically been - despite the news that the economy is SUPPOSEDLY ‘softening.’”

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1981739443875696867

OBSERVATION - Data from CNN (phewy) So either they totally screwed up the poll or something has shifted. What is lacking is just what IS the top problem.

***
In good news for American consumers, the September inflation rate came in at 3 percent, lower than expected and “smashing economists’ expectations” according to the Rapid Response X account.

These readings will also bolster the Trump administration’s argument that inflation is under control and tariffs aren’t triggering a cost-of-living surge.”

OBSERVATION - This will place more pressure on the Fed to lower rates more. They will not be happy with 3% but combined with the growing crisis in the labor market they should have no excuse not to lower.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered an aircraft carrier strike group currently stationed in Europe to the Caribbean region amid a massive buildup of US military forces in the region.

The Gerald R. Ford strike group and its associated air wing are being sent to “dismantle Transnational Criminal Organizations and counter narco-terrorism,” Pentagon Press Secretary Sean Parnell said in a statement posted on X.
The Ford group was docked near the harbor of Split, Croatia on October 21. That would leave the ships more than 5,000 miles from the Caribbean, meaning it would take days for the group to be in position to launch any strikes.

OBSERVATION - That is one heck of a big stick forming in the Caribbean and it also leaves the Middle East without a carrier group for the first time in years.

***
According to an exclusive report from Aviation Week, the U.S. Army has ordered its fleet of experimental, high-altitude, business jet-based intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance aircraft, consisting of the Airborne Reconnaissance Targeting Exploitation Mission Intelligence System (ARTEMIS), the Airborne Reconnaissance and Electronic Warfare System (ARES) and the Army Theater-Level High-Altitude Expeditionary Next Airborne Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ATHENA), built into highly-modified variants of the Bombardier Global 6500, to the U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) Area-of-Responsibility. The aircraft will be recalled from ongoing deployments to Europe and the Indo-Pacific, tasked with supporting the Trump Administration’s escalating campaign against drug trafficking cartels across Latin America, as well as the Maduro Regime in Venezuela.

OBSERVATION - That giant sucking sound is that of all the SIGINT being collected by these platforms.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Top Democrats in both the Senate and House wasted no time twisting the truth. On Thursday, they seized on a single quote from the White House press secretary, ripped it out of context, and used it as ammunition in a blatantly dishonest attack on President Donald Trump. The move fits a familiar pattern from the left — distort what’s said, spread it through friendly media outlets, and hope the lie sticks before anyone notices the facts.

According to various Democrats, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt claimed that the ballroom addition is Trump’s “main priority” right now.

Here’s what happened: At Thursday’s press briefing, Leavitt gave what should have been an uncontroversial answer to a question about White House renovations. A reporter asked, “In addition to the ballroom and the Rose Garden patio, is the president looking at any other renovations or significant kind of projects here at the White House?”

Leavitt responded candidly: “Not to my knowledge, no. But he’s a builder at heart, clearly. And so his heart and his mind is always churning about how to improve things here on the White House grounds. But at this moment in time, of course, the ballroom is really the president’s main priority.”

https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2025/10/25/democrats-got-caught-lying-againand-even-cnn-had-to-admit-it-n4945245

OBSERVATION - In today’s fast news cycle realm, it is quick to be debunked and democrats just don’t get it. They are stuck in older news cycle models and as a result continue to get their rear ends handed to them when they try to do a ‘gotcha’ like this.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump is enroute for the ASEAN summit in Malaysia. There he hopes to meet with Xi to break thru trade and tariff issues.

Illegal Immigration –

ICE and DHS continue to go after violent illegals and haul them off for deportation in spite of leftists efforts to stop them.

China -

Political situation must be stable enough in China following the latest military purge for Xi to feel comfortable enough to travel out of country.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Soap opera continues as Russia pours on the PR and propaganda threats against the west. In part to deflect blame for peace talk failures and to try to strip support from NATO nations to Ukraine.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 9 Iskander-M missiles and 62 attack drones, including around 40 Shaheds. Ukraine’s air defense downed or jammed 54 targets, 4 ballistic missiles and 50 drones. Strikes hit 11 locations, with debris falling in 4 more.

Russian losses per 25/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+910 men
+4 tanks
+1 ACV
+15 artillery

Analysis and Future Operations —

Again, a relatively high number of missiles launched with small drone numbers. Action on the ground show moderately heavy action. OSINT observers noting that the Pokrovsk area has been receiving the focus by Russia and slight gains reported.

Weather continues to play a factor, and I think the window for a lot of action is closing as soon as enough rain has hit to turn the fields into a quagmire, giving Ukraine more advantage.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Sec State Rubio - UNRWA has not place in current peace efforts

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is currently in Israel and made an announcement today that did not please the United Nations. During a press briefing, Rubio said that UNRWA, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees, would not play any role in aid distribution within Gaza. He explained that “UNRWA became a subsidiary of Hamas.”

That came to a head on Wednesday of this week when the International Court of Justice (ICJ), whose authority the US does not recognize, issued an opinion stating that the US must allow UNRWA to provide aid to Gaza.

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2025/10/24/rubio-unrwa-is-a-subsidiary-of-hamas-and-wont-have-any-role-in-aid-distribution-n3808189

OBSERVATION - The UNRWA has been totally corrupted by Hamas and has actively participated in terror against Israel. ICJ also has no jurisdiction over Israel nor has the UN participated in any meaningful manner to stop Hama’s terror war and free any hostages. Both the ICJ and UNRWA have been told to pound sand some where else. BTW, the US is moving to totally stop any funding to UNRWA.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Now 5 days since the last time Hamas handed over the bodies of Israeli captives.

13 bodies of captives are still held in the Gaza Strip.

OBSERVATION - Hamas is stalling even though it could have handed over at least 5 additional bodies in its possession.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas has not launched any further attacks on Israeli forces, but are still refusing to disarm as agreed to. They also appear to be deliberately slowing the repatriation of the bodies of hostages, as agreed too.

This present stale mate is allowing Hamas to regroup and rearm to a degree as the cease fire guarantors gaggle with a way to force them to relinquish both arms and control of the remaining third of Gaza.

Short an overt act by Hamas, things will remain at a dynamic tension. Israel is ready to drop the hammer as its INTEL collection continues to map and identify choice Hamas facilities, open to attack now that the living hostages have been released.

Lebanon -

More IAF targeted drone strikes on Hezbollah leaders in the south.

Colombia -

The U.S. Department of the Treasury today issued sanctions against Colombian President Gustavo Petro, as well as several of his supporters, including his wife, his son, and a close associate, alleging that under Petro, cocaine production in Colombia has exploded to the highest rate in decades, flooding the United States and poisoning Americans. Today’s sanctions follow several weeks of criticism by President Petro against the Trump Administration and its ongoing strike campaign against suspected narco-terrorist vessels in the Caribbean Sea.

OBSERVATION - Looks like Venezuela is first in line, with Colombia right after. Watching to see if forces build in the Pacific. Colombia borders both the Caribbean and Pacific.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

NOTE - Addition of the SF Bay area and downgrade in Portland and Seattle.

***
Weekend protest forecast.

With the NK 2.0 in the rear view mirror, this weekend so far has seen smaller protests covering a variety of topics across the nation. At this time, none appear to be posing a threat of violence, though conditions locally can change very rapidly.

Significant areas of violence has been seen at the Portland ICE facility as part of the ongoing siege by Antifa et al.

***
Portland saw more minor violence overnight as Antifa et al attempted to blockade the ICE facility and got into fights with Trump supporters. Portland police continued to allow protestors to block the city streets citing that is their 1st amendment right.

***
Former Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot announced that she is forming a nonprofit organization called the “ICE Accountability Project,” designed to collect and publish identifying information about federal immigration enforcement agents operating in the Chicago area.

The initiative, Lightfoot said, is aimed at tracking agents from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) as part of the ongoing Operation Midway Blitz.

https://www.lifezette.com/2025/10/lori-lightfoot-launches-ice-accountability-project-seeks-to-publicly-identify-federal-agents-watch/

OBSERVATION - Part of the ongoing efforts by leftists to threaten the lives of agents and their families with violence.

***
Department of Justice Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche fired off a warning letter to several prominent California Democrats, noting that recent threats to arrest federal ICE agents could prompt an investigation and prosecution.

The letter came in response to Democrat Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s (CA-11) public suggestion that local or state police could detain ICE agents if they are found to have violated state laws.

Blanche hammered Democrats for not supporting federal immigration officers in their efforts to enforce the law and instead threatening them with their own arrests. Additionally, he essentially warned them to back off.

“The Department of Justice views any arrests of federal agents and officers in the performance of their official duties as both illegal and futile,” he wrote. “Numerous federal laws prohibit interfering with and impeding immigration or other law-enforcement operations.”

Blanche, pointing to the Supremacy Clause as an example, warns that the DOJ will “investigate and prosecute any state or local official” who attempts to defy federal statutes.

The letter was addressed to Pelosi, California Governor Gavin Newsom, Attorney General Rob Bonta, and San Francisco District Attorney Brooke Jenkins, all Democrats.

Blanche goes on to advise the recipients to “preserve all written and electronic communications and records related to any attempts or efforts to impede or obstruct federal law enforcement officials,” strongly suggesting they “publicly abandon” threats against ICE agents.

https://redstate.com/rusty-weiss/2025/10/24/new-doj-warns-pelosi-to-stand-down-or-face-ramifications-after-she-threatened-to-arrest-ice-agents-n2195430

OBSERVATION - State and local threats to arrest and prosecute federal agents going about their tasks is growing evidence of a governmental split with DC / Trump. Setting up alternative, competing governmental structures and laws.

Of course, the associated calls for violence against agents is more than bad enough, and there are enough nut jobs out there that will take that encouragement to violence seriously.

Terrorism - Threat Level - ADVISORY as of OCT 26, 2025
Downgraded due to declining global threats and middle east war

***
Axios reported on Friday that White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles called the Secret Service to her office to chew them out over a major security breach last month when Hamas-supporting Code Pink radicals were allowed to get within feet of President Donald Trump at a restaurant during what was supposed to be a surprise night out on the town in Washington, D.C., with senior officials to highlight the success of the Trump administration’s crime-fighting surge in the nation’s capital.

Two major concerns about the incident were
- who tipped off Code Pink and
- that there were knives on the table between Trump and the protesters.

Two advance White House staffers ushered the protesters away. (Not Secret Service!)

The protest by Hamas-supporting Code Pink radicals at the restaurant appearance by President Trump took place on September 9. The next day, close Trump ally Charlie Kirk was assassinated by a sniper at a public appearance in Utah.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/10/secret-service-chewed-susie-wiles-after-hamas-supporting/

OBSERVATION - Very serious security breach last month. Even worse, the lack of action by SS once the threat was obvious. Hopefully, since this was over a month ago, underperforming SS agents have been reassigned janitorial positions and leaks ID’d and silenced. Trump has had at least 3 assassination attempts, one of which was nearly successful. Can’t tolerate security failures of this sort.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Retail goliath Walmart this week announced the return of its famous Thanksgiving Basket meal, including a turkey and all of the fixings, that it says will serve 10 people for less than $4 per person. Turkey at lowest price since 2019 at $0.90/lb.

OBSERVATION - Much of the costs reduction reflects back on the multiple years of bird flu that caused US flocks to decimated by culling, creating shortages. Hopefully will see prices for chicken start falling lower as well.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Observers are noting that about 20% of the deployed US Navy fleet is, or will be, in the USSOUTHCOM area of responsibility within the next few weeks.

More warships are assigned to SOUTHCOM than EUCOM or CENTCOM.

OBSERVATION - This is going way beyond a show of force into something more significant.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Wrangling continues over the govt shutdown. Democrats keep refusing selective CRs to fund key sectors of govt, such as military pay and even SNAP/EBT. Conventional wisdom was that they would pass the CR shortly after the NK 2.0, but so far have doubled and tripled down against attempts to move the needle. PA Senator Fetterman may be key in moving some moderate democrats away from the leftists and voting for the CR.

Do democrats really believe that instigating SNAP/EBT riots and looting is going to garner support for their cause? If they believe their press releases they do.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Trump has announced that he will be raising all tariffs on Canada by 10%, in response to an anti-tariff ad paid for by the Government of Ontario which was played last night during the World Series and used snippets of a radio address on free and fair trade given by President Ronald Reagan on April 25, 1987.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump at ASEAN summit in Malaysia. Key milestones so far:

- Treaty between Cambodia and Thailand
- Movement towards trade agreement and meeting with Xi

China -

Economic officials from China and the U.S. reached a preliminary consensus after discussions on a range of issues including the extension of their trade truce, fentanyl and export controls. The second day of trade talks between the U.S. and China was paving the way for a “productive meeting” between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping, Washington’s top trade envoy said in Kuala Lumpur on Sunday, raising hopes of a deal between the world’s two largest economies.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/trump-china-trade/2025/10/26/id/1231872/

Asia General –

Cambodia/Thailand -

The leaders of Thailand and Cambodia have signed a ceasefire agreement in the presence of U.S. President Donald Trump.

The accord was concluded roughly three months after five days of cross-border fighting between the two nations. During the clashes, President Trump called for an immediate halt to hostilities and suspended trade talks with both countries.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Russia has successfully tested its nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile, a nuclear-capable weapon Moscow says can evade any defence system, and will move towards deploying the weapon, President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday.
Russia’s top general, Valery Gerasimov, chief of the general staff of Russia’s armed forces, told Putin that the missile travelled 14,000 km (8,700 miles) and was in the air for about 15 hours when it was tested on October 21.

Russia says the 9M730 Burevestnik (Storm Petrel) – dubbed the SSC-X-9 Skyfall by Nato – is “invincible” to current and future missile defences, with an almost unlimited range and unpredictable flight path.

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3330366/putin-russias-new-nuclear-powered-missile-can-evade-any-defence?utm_source=rss_feed

OBSERVATION - Russia has had many failed tests, so the singular ‘successful’ test maybe just an outlier. Even yet, this beast may not see much production. Much of the capabilities stated are propaganda.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 101 attack drones, including around 60 Shaheds, from multiple directions. Ukraine’s air defense shot down or jammed 90 of them across the north, south, and east. Hits were recorded at 4 locations, with debris falling in 5 more. The worst hit is the Desnianskyi district, where a Shahed drone struck a 9-story residential building, collapsing multiple floors. At least 26 people were injured there, including five children.

Russian losses per 26/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+900 men
+4 tanks
+18 ACVs
+15 artillery

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

This morning near Volodymyrivka, Russian forces tried to break through the 33rd Mech Brigade’s line with five armored vehicles from Novotoretske. Three got stuck in the mud, forcing troops to dismount into water. Ukrainian artillery and HIMARS quickly struck the exposed infantry. Three vehicles sank, two were destroyed. Confirmed Russian losses: 1 MT-LB, 1 motorcycle, 4 KIA, 2 WIA.
Russian forces reportedly were attempting to take advantage of fog in the area.

General Staff of Armed forces of Ukraine: Ukrainian military had liberated Sukhetske village in Donetsk region, Pokrovsk sector

Reports that Ukraine has regained control over Kucheriv Yar and the surrounding area, ending the Russian encirclement there, Russian troops were either killed or captured. Ukraine also recaptured territory east of Vilne and Nove Shakhove, and liberated Sukhets’ke and Zatyshok. Fighting continues for Fedorivka, while Russian pushes toward Shakhove and Volodymyrivka have failed. Pressure is growing on Russian units west of Shakhove.

The situation in Pokrovsk is difficult, the General Staff acknowledges. Around ~200 Russians have already infiltrated into the city center, where street battles have emerged. Ukrainian sources also confirm the situation is deteriorating.

Analysis and Future Operations —

As noted above, action in the Pokrovsk sector has increased significantly over the past few days. Ukrainian successes have been in the northern portion where a Russia sailent was created trying to envelope Pokrovsk from the north. That salient is mostly eliminated now. Infiltration of Russians from the south into Pokrovsk reflects the current tactic, getting a toehold behind defenses and causing a break down of logistics and command / control. Key will be just how quickly Ukraine can get control of these infiltrators and fill the gaps in the defenses they snuck in thru.

Also on note - vehicles involved in the assault near Volodymyrivka, (from above) were “stuck in the mud” Indicators that the infamous Ukrainian mud season is developing and will severely limit Russian tank/armor/vehicle support for future assaults.

Pakistan / Afghanistan –
Threat Level ADVISORY - OCT 26, 2025 -

Ceasefire continues to hold, lowering Threat Level accordingly

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas accused of deliberately delaying the release of dead hostages.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

US President Donald Trump on Saturday night called on the Hamas terror group to immediately return the bodies of deceased hostages.

He noted, “Some of the bodies are hard to reach, but others they can return now and, for some reason, they are not.”

“Perhaps it has to do with their disarming, but when I said, ‘Both sides would be treated fairly,‘ that only applies if they comply with their obligations. Let’s see what they do over the next 48 hours. I am watching this very closely.”

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-105/

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

US military has been flying ISR missions over Gaza in recent days to monitor ceasefire commitments on both sides, per US officials

***
Israeli Defense Minister: 60% of Hamas’ tunnels remain in place, and I have instructed the army to make their destruction a central mission in areas under our control.

NOTE - The Hamas tunnel network is larger than the subway network under London by most accounts.

***
An Israeli security official says that as part of the efforts to recover the bodies of the deceased hostages, the Israeli political leadership approved Egypt’s request to allow an Egyptian team with equipment to enter Gaza in order to assist in the effort to locate the bodies. The team and equipment have entered the Gaza Strip, the official says

***
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said U.S. officials are getting input on a possible UN resolution or international agreement to authorize a multinational force in Gaza and will discuss the issue in Qatar on Sunday.
“Many of the countries that have expressed an interest in participating at some level — whether it be monetary or personnel or both — are going to need that (a UN resolution or international agreement) because their domestic laws require it,” Rubio told reporters traveling on his plane between Israel and Qatar en route to Asia.

“So we have a whole team working on that outline of it.”

OBSERVATION - Israel has stated it will have some degree of veto over what nations participate.

***
Following the IDF’s new deployment along the yellow line, four Gazan militias / clans now operate against Hamas, all within areas under IDF control

- Ashraf Al-Mansi – Beit Lahia (North Gaza)
- Rami Khalas – East Gaza City (North Gaza)
- Husayn Al-Astal – Central Khan Yunis (South Gaza)
- Yasser Abu Shabab – East Rafah (South Gaza)

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas is using the delay in releasing the remains of hostages as a means to avoid in the short term moving to Phase 2 of the agreement which includes disarmament. Most likely even after all the remains have been returned, Hamas will refuse to disarm. This is one hurdle that will likely require Israel to resume combat operations.

IDF has been nurturing relations to militias/clans that oppose Hamas, now coming to fruition. These elements can directly engage Hamas beyond the ‘Yellow Line” that Israel can’t cross. This should help reduce Hamas attempts to cross the line and launch attacks against IDF.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Tehran moves to reassure depositors after Ayandeh Bank collapse, transferring assets to state-owned Bank Melli amid mounting economic pressure and renewed international sanctions.

Iran has declared one of its largest private banks bankrupt and transferred its assets to a state-owned institution, Iranian state media reported on Saturday, in what appears to be a rare financial failure in the heavily sanctioned country.

According to the Turkish daily “Türkiye Today”, Ayandeh Bank collapsed under mounting debt. The bank, which was established in 2012, operated 270 branches nationwide, including 150 in Tehran. It reportedly accumulated losses of approximately $5.2 billion and had liabilities of some $2.9 billion, the ISNA news agency said.

Long lines formed outside Ayandeh branches in Tehran on Saturday as police were deployed to manage crowds, AFP reported.
Bank Melli, a state-owned lender, has assumed control of Ayandeh’s assets following a decision by the Central Bank of Iran. Officials sought to reassure depositors that their funds remained secure.
Ayandeh clients ‘have nothing to worry about’

“The transfer from Ayandeh Bank to Bank Melli has now been completed,” said bank director Abolfazl Najjarzadeh in an interview broadcast on Iranian state television. Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh stated earlier in the week that Ayandeh clients “have nothing to worry about.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-declares-major-private-bank-083923303.html

Associate reports of crowds flooding the streets of Tehran after word got out that Ayandeh Bank was officially declared bankrupt, leaving billions in savings at risk. Scenes outside branches turned chaotic, elderly Iranians begging for access to their life savings, police in riot gear trying to contain the crowds.

OBSERVATION - Iranian banks are on edge due to the same conditions that took Ayandeh down. Nothing says economic freefall than bank failures.

Lebanon -

The latest drone strike targeted an excavator in the town of Blida, south Lebanon.

***
The Israeli army said it killed Hezbollah leader Zein al-Abidin Hussein Futouni in an airstrike on the Jebchit area in southern Lebanon.

Misc of Note –

The sudden slowing of action globally has not eased by concerns of something major happing in the near future. It has generated a general unease to me. Can’t put my finger on it, but something global in magnitude is on the horizon. Many options out there including financial meltdown, natural disaster(s) or other political turmoil.

Top of my list is resurgent Globalist and deep state actions - they’ve been quiet for too long.

As big of a threat that it is, the impeding EBT/SNAP riots are not in that mix. But they may serve as a precursor.

Admittedly, I am a pessimist by nature, which drives me to scour the inter webs for early warnings.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

NOTE - Addition of the SF Bay area and downgrade in Portland and Seattle.

***
DNC Chair Ken Martin just told MSNBC’s “The Beat” that “we may be nearing” the moment when “elections don’t matter and then the resistance looks completely different.” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called on people to “forcefully rise up.” With political violence on the rise, these leaders are clearly fueling the mob in hopes that they and their party can ride the wave of rage back into power. History suggests that it is a foolish delusion. Today’s revolutionaries quickly become tomorrow’s reactionaries.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., who pictures himself brandishing a baseball bat has previously called upon people to “fight in the streets.”

California Governor Gavin Newsom previously declared, “I’m going to punch these sons of bitches in the mouth.”

Virginia Democratic gubernatorial nominee Abigail Spanberger called upon her supporters to “Let your rage fuel you.” She then refused to withdraw her support for the Democratic candidate for Attorney General, Jay Jones, who once expressed his desire to kill his political opponents and his children.

https://jonathanturley.org/2025/10/24/we-may-be-nearing-when-the-resistance-looks-completely-different-democrat-leaders-ramp-up-resistance-rhetoric/

OBSERVATION - Continued ramping up of rhetoric shows the desire of the left to cause an explosion of violence.

What is lacking is a triggering event to give these leftists something to rally around. The impending SNAP/EBT cut off on the first of November could well be such a trigger.

***
Portland Law enforcement and city workers cleaned up Antifa’s anti-ICE camp over the weekend. This encampment that’s been terrorizing the city’s ICE facility for nearly half a year.

On Sunday, Oregon State Troopers and Portland Police descended on the site, hauling away mountains of leftist litter in box trucks, and sending the black-clad anarchists scattering down the rainy streets.

https://thelibertydaily.com/portlands-sudden-cleanup-antifa-camp-is-just-kabuki/

Antifa were recorded salvaging riot supplies from their street encampment. They moved the supplies to their “Antifa safehouse” at 677 S Lowell St., #152. They had militants stand guard on the public street.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1982523021849194993?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

The general impression is that this action was taken to dissuade the courts from realizing that the NG is not needed to control the situation, that the city/state has it well in hand. Perhaps, but it also shows that the city/state has been holding back while Antifa attacked the facility on a nightly basis for the past 6 plus months.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The redeployment of the USS Ford CSG to SOUTHCOM has caused a degree of scramble to pull its escort elements back together from various portions of the Med, potentially causing the Ford to sail without escorts. It could take two to three weeks for the whole CSG to be in position in the Caribbean.

POLITICAL FRONT –

More than a quarter of New Yorkers will consider fleeing the Big Apple if Zohran Mamdani is elected mayor, according to a new poll that warns that a socialist-run City Hall “could reshape the city for years to come.”

The shocking new survey, released Friday morning from polling firm Victory Insights, revealed that a “whopping” 26.5% of respondents were thinking about moving in 2026 if the Democratic Socialists of America lawmaker takes the helm.

https://nypost.com/2025/10/24/us-news/26-of-new-yorkers-considering-fleeing-nyc-if-zohran-mamdani-becomes-mayor-poll/

OBSERVATION - This 25% is likely the rich folks Mamdani is saying he is going to tax to death to pay for all of his freebees. The polls indicate he will win with a comfortable margin. The big apple will soon be full of worms devouring what is left of the city within a couple years.

RELATED - Some republicans are seeking to have Mamdani’s citizenship revoked due to lying on his application and VISAs. Doubt seriously that this will happen.

TRUMP Watch –

In Japan - see below

China -

A trade deal between the United States and China is drawing closer, officials from the world’s two largest economies said Sunday as they reached an initial consensus for President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to aim to finalize during their high-stakes meeting.

OBSERVATION - Apparently not close enough for Trump and Xi to meet and seal the deal.

Japan –

President Trump arrives in Japan after his ASEAN summit visit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. He is now in Tokyo where he will soon meet with Japanese Emperor Naruhito.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russian President Vladimir Putin boasted that Russia is decisively winning in Ukraine, stating that Russia has the strategic initiative along the thousand kilometers long front line. Putin believes his forces are on the verge of victory and that the Ukrainians need to realize what is happening in the combat zone. Other Russian leaders insist that if Ukraine does not accept the Russian view of the situation and make peace on Russian terms, they would suffer much heavier losses. This attitude is based on the Russian belief that NATO nations will eventually tire of pouring all the military and economic aid into Ukraine. That is not happening and many Russian leaders and Russians in general prefer to believe that eventually Russia will have the edge in military power.

The reality is that the economic sanctions imposed on Russia after the invasion began in 2022 are having serious negative impacts on the Russian economy. At the same time the Ukrainian economy has been growing and the Ukrainians are manufacturing a growing proportion of the weapons and munitions they need to win the war. Western firms are investing in Ukrainian industry and see Ukraine as the eventual winner. A growing proportion of the western aid to Ukraine is in the form of investments in the Ukrainian economy.

Russian leaders tried to hide the economic losses from the Russian people, but that is no longer possible. The sanctions have created growing shortages of consumer as well as military goods in Russia. While Russia can obtain needed items from China and North Korea, these goods must be paid for.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlead/articles/20251026730.aspx#gsc.tab=0

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Trump responded to Putin’s threats and the recent Burevestnik missile test by reminding that the US has a nuclear submarine “right off their coast.”

He said there’s no need to fire missiles 8,000 miles when such assets are already in place, and called on Putin to end a war that “should’ve lasted a week, not four years.”

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers first part of the week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 100 attack drones overnight, mostly Shaheds, targeting Ukraine from Kursk, Oryol, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk. Ukrainian defenses shot down or jammed 66 drones using aircraft, air defense units, EW, and mobile fire teams. At least 26 drones struck nine locations.

Russian losses per 27/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+800 men
+2 tanks
+3 ACVs
+34 artillery
+1 MLRS

Overnight on Sunday, the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out a significant long-range drone attack against the Russian capital of Moscow and the surrounding Moscow Oblast, utilizing as many as 134 drones coming from several directions, with targets including military sites, fuel depots, and other infrastructure that support the Russian Armed Forces in its ongoing war in Ukraine. Arriving and departing flights at all of Moscow’s major airports: Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo, and Zhukovsky, were halted, with smoke seen and sporadic explosions heard by residents across Moscow.

Ukrainian strike drones were tracked over Donetsk, Luhansk, Belgorod, Lipetsk, Kursk, Bryansk, and Oryol regions, with routes pushing toward Kaluga, Tula, and Moscow oblasts. Russian channels report urgent evacuation of aircraft near Moscow and bombers from Engels-2 over fears of imminent strikes.

Explosions reported near Moscow’s Kommunarka area were followed by a fire.

Mayor of Moscow reports 34 drones were shot down near Moscow

***
Anonymous: Anonymous has hacked all Kremlin servers. Anonymous is applying its own digital sanctions on Russia. We demand they surrender and fully leave all Ukrainian territory

Belgorod region -

Ukraine strike hit one of the spill gates Belgorod dam, causing a flood that has isolated Russian forces in Vovchansk from their main units, and causing serious logistical issues, according to Ukraine’s 16th Army Corps.

The damage to the spillway gate caused heavy outflow, dropping water levels by over a meter.

Russian brigades (128th, 116th, 68th, 136th) downstream are now at risk of flooding, including personnel and equipment. The Siverskyi Donets is rising fast.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Urban fighting continues in Pokrovsk as Russian forces, using numerical advantage, infiltrated and spread through parts of the city. In 48 hours, Ukraine eliminated around 104 Russian troops and several vehicles but fighting is hard, and the situation is very difficult.

OSINT analysts indicate that Russia is pushing on Pokrovsk from both the north and south. The infiltration came from the south

Analysis and Future Operations —

Ukraine’s drone attack placed a lot of territory on edge. Little word on effectiveness, Russia places tight hold on information releases.

The details of the fight for Pokrovsk are shrouded in a lot of fog of war and OPSEC. All indicators that the Ukraine defenses are beginning to weaken as Russia incrementally takes terrain one bite at a time. Pokrovsk has been the target of the Russian for over a year now and have expended a lot of manpower and resources to capture this fortress city. With the mud season fast approaching, Russian forces are seeking to capture the town, which would be the biggest advance in over a year. However, Russia would not be likely to exploit this capture as routes NW out of town would channelize their forces and expose them to the incessant attacks by Ukraine drones.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Pressure on Hamas to release more bodies of hostages

——— GENERAL ——————————-

13 hostage bodies, including 2 Americans, still remain in Gaza. Trump’s plan required all releases by October 13, 2025, 72 hours after IDF withdrawal.

14 days later, hostages are still held.

According to a Times of Israel report, Israel knows the location of 9 of the bodies, and accuses Hamas of stalling for time.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Hamas elements continue to aggressively kill members of militias/clans opposing their rule.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli forces detained Palestinian Jamal Al-Tawil, who was freed in a previous exchange deal, after raiding his home in the city of Al-Bireh

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Status quo is being maintained, the major threat is the continued delay of releasing bodies of Israeli hostages by Hamas. The total release is what is standing the way of the next phase, which includes disarming Hamas. Its pretty clear that it will not happen without very serious pressure or even Israel resuming the war.

Hamas is at the end of the 48 hour warning from Trump. Action has to be taken or the US will lose credibility and Hamas emboldened. Remember, force is what matters in arab politics, not talk.

Lebanon -

Lebanese Ministry of Health: The Israeli raid on the town of Hafir in the Baalbek district yesterday evening, Sunday, resulted in the death of one person (Ahmed Taha) and the injury of another Syrian national.

***
U.S. Special Envoy Morgan Ortagus will reportedly present to the Lebanese leadership a timeline for the disarmament of Hezbollah, which includes a deadline of weeks, not months, during her visit to Beirut tomorrow.

Diplomatic sources told Lebanese Al-Jadeed that the American message to Beirut goes beyond the disarmament file, and includes a call to find a mechanism for negotiating with Israel.

The report stated that President Joseph Aoun is currently looking into mechanisms for negotiation to resolve this file, seeking to avoid a resumption of the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.

https://x.com/ariel_oseran/status/1982510694118646011?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem addressed the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons in an interview which aired on Sunday night on Al-Manar TV, a channel affiliated with the terrorist organization.

“Possessing weapons is an inseparable part of our legitimate right to defend our homeland. Resistance is a legitimate right. The Lebanese state decides how it wants to operate internally regarding the handling of weapons. Israel has nothing to do with this,” said Qassem.

Qassem emphasized, “If the Lebanese army does not have the capacity to confront [attacks] alone, there must be popular resistance to face the assaults alongside the army. There must be coordination between the army and the resistance to stand against this. But no one has the right to say, ‘Let’s give up the weapons to remove the excuse’ - why should we disarm and then wait for the aggression to return? First stop the attacks, then we’ll talk about the weapons issue.”

Lebanon’s cabinet recently tasked the army with formulating a plan for disarming Hezbollah by the end of 2025.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/416863

OVERALL OBSERVATION - Hezbollah, like Hamas, is rejecting terms of its peace agreements by refusing to disarm and move out of territory threatening Israel. To disarm Hezbollah by the end of the year will be a mega task for the Lebanese military, much of which is covertly controlled by Hezbollah. Thus, Israel will continue its airstrikes on Hezbollah elements and sites in the near future.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Russia is reportedly sending weapons and mercenaries to Venezuela as tensions rise with the US. A sanctioned Il-76 cargo plane arrived in Caracas after stops in Yerevan, Algiers, Rabat, Dakar, and Nouakchott. The aircraft is linked to arms transport for Wagner operations in Africa and Venezuela.

OBSERVATION - Russia upping the ante with the potential involvement of Wagner elements.

***
Rumor abound that Trump is considering striking land based narco-terrorist sites in Venezuela in the near future. These strikes could be done using Tomahawk cruise missiles as well as air strikes using F35s. No evidence of putting any boots on the ground yet.

Argentina -

Argentina’s midterm election handed a landslide win to President Javier Milei.
Voters strongly supported his free-market reforms and spending cuts, giving the libertarian leader a clear mandate to keep reshaping the economy.

Milei announced that his party, La Libertad Avanza, has tripled its representation, now holding 101 seats in the lower house, up from 37, and 20 in the Senate, up from six, cementing his control in Congress.

OBSERVATION - Smashing victory for Millei, he has a juggernaut of support to press forward with his reforms. His initial reforms have dramatically turned the Argentinian economy around and the people are feeling the benefits.

Misc of Note –

Repeating warnings regarding the potential for EBT/SNAP riots this weekend. If you have shopping to do, get it done now, especially you freepers who live in riot prone dark blue metro areas. Maintain good situation awareness due to threats that rioters will not stop at just looting stores, but rob from customers bringing their groceries to their vehicles.

Globalism / Great Reset –

COP 30 is set to happen in the deforested jungle of Brazil and in a very subdued manner. A large part of this is the fact that the billions (trillions) of dollars demanded to stop global warming haven’t materialized. In fact, a huge chunk was defunded by Trump when he terminated the US Agency for International Development (USAID).

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2025/10/27/is-subdued-cop-30-a-trump-effect/

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
.
CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

Nov 5 - Revolutionary Communists to “flood” Washington, D.C. protests

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

NOTE - Additional protests being announced for DC, assessing the potential for violence or other direct action.

***

With the EBT/SNAP crisis growing ever closer, an apocalyptic scenario by FR’s Matt Bracken may be appropriate. It clearly represents a worse case scenario. Written in 2012, titled “When The Music Stops – How America’s Cities Will Explode In Violence” it tracks how the whole thing can come off the rails. Here’s for reading -

https://steelcutter.substack.com/p/when-the-music-stops-how-americas

I hope and pray this down’t go this far, but the 2020 Floyd riots show otherwise.

RELATED - Food banks are already feeling the stress of increased demand for food across the nation.

AREAS FACING THE GREATEST THREAT -

Nearly half of all SNAP funds went to 7 large-population states in the month of May.
California drew the largest share at more than $1 billion in federal funding—about 13 percent of the total.

New York received $647 million, and Texas received $614 million. The next highest amounts went to Florida, $536 million; Illinois, $368 million; Pennsylvania, $368 million; and Ohio, $356 million.
Those states together received 49 percent of the food assistance benefit for May 2025, and they served about 49 percent of those receiving benefits.

Sixteen states and the District of Columbia have higher-than-average participation in SNAP.

Of those, New Mexico has the highest rate, with 21 percent of its 2.1 million people receiving food assistance. The District of Columbia is next with 20 percent of its 700,000 residents participating in SNAP. Oregon is next with 18 percent participation, followed by Louisiana and Oklahoma at 17 percent each.

About 15 percent of the population receives SNAP benefits in West Virginia, Nevada, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, New York, Illinois, and Michigan.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/these-states-lose-most-if-federal-food-aid-runs-out-5935496?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=BonginoReport&src_src=partner&src_cmp=BonginoReport

OBSERVATION - I can’t find the link again, IIRC broken out by political affiliation, 17% republican and 83% democrat receive food aid.

WITH ALL THIS SAID, major democrat supporting unions are demanding the democrats stop stalling and get the CR passed. The big question is will it happen before SNAP/EBT funding crisis hits the fan.

***
In an interview on ABC’s This Week on Sunday, senior Arizona Democrat Senator Mark Kelly threatened ‘young service members’ with prosecution for following President Donald Trump’s orders to attack drug boats in the Caribbean Sea. Kelly made the threat in comments to host Martha Raddatz, saying the Trump administration was “putting young service members at great, legal jeopardy.”

“They have a secret list of 20 something — 24 organizations that they have now authorized to use — use kinetic action against without the normal approach that we have for law enforcement. Hey, we don’t want drugs in this country, especially fentanyl. But all these drugs, we — we should be working really hard to interdict them and prosecute the individuals that are smuggling drugs, not putting young service members at great, legal jeopardy.”

Note: ABC omitted Kelly’s word “jeopardy” from the transcript even though it was clearly audible in the broadcast.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/10/democrat-senator-mark-kelly-makes-veiled-threat-of-prosecution-to-young-service-members-for-following-president-trumps-orders-to-attack-drug-boats-in-caribbean/

OBSERVATION - Encouraging mutiny within the ranks and threatening them with legal action.

***

(FO) Steady State, a group of 340+ former intelligence, diplomatic, and national security officials, released a report claiming the U.S. is on a trajectory toward authoritarian rule. Steady State said democratic backsliding is accelerating under the Trump administration, and will become entrenched without organized resistance.

The report claims the U.S. is experiencing “competitive authoritarianism: a system in which elections, courts, and other democratic institutions” still exist but are “manipulated” in order to expand executive power. The report also cites a risk of “growing tolerance among segments of the public for authoritarian governance.”

The report concludes that the U.S. is “becoming more autocratic, exhibiting clear signs of democratic backsliding rather than a direct transition to a traditional dictatorship.”

OBSERVATION - Deep staters trying to lay the groundwork to justify a possible forceful removal of Trump.

***
(FO) A group called the “Removal Coalition” announced a 22 November rally in Washington, D.C., where they will urge Congress to impeach and remove President Donald Trump.

***
(FO) REVCOM: TRUMP MUST BE DRIVEN FROM POWER: The Revolutionary Communist Party, USA announced a 5 November event to “flood” Washington, D.C. with nonviolent protests against President Trump. The protest events are organized through RevCom’s Refuse Fascism organization.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its second rate cut of the year on Wednesday, despite a lack of clarity over the health of the US economy due to the ongoing government shutdown.

Without these key insights into the US economy (from the shutdown), Fed officials will be forced to set interest rates without the full spectrum of data they normally rely upon.

Analysts and traders expect the bank will plow ahead with a quarter percentage-point cut, lowering its key lending rate to between 3.75 percent and 4.00 percent, without giving too much away about the final rate cut of the year in December.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/fed-rate-cuts/2025/10/26/id/1231914/

OBSERVATION - If they are to retain any shred of credibility, they will drop the rate. At this stage it is a race to get money back into the system before a bigger crash occurs.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Traditional foundational areas of democrat support are starting to crumble and Schumer may be forced to concede to the republican CR.

- The Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA), Allied Pilots Association (APA), Southwest Airlines Pilots Association (SWAPA), and other industry groups jointly appealed to Congress to end what they called an “unnecessary and damaging” shutdown. Their message was clear: stop using America’s aviation infrastructure as a political hostage.

- The virulently anti-Trump American Federal of Government Employees (AFGE) is now calling on Senate Democrats to end the government shutdown by voting to pass a continuing resolution that would temporarily extend funding at previously-approved levels.

OBSERVATION - How quickly will Schumer concede and will it be done before the SNAP/EBT deadline.

***
The Supreme Court is set to rule for the first time on whether the president has the power to deploy troops in American cities over the objections of local and state officials.
A decision could come at any time.
And even a one-line order siding with President Trump would send the message that he is free to use the military to carry out his orders — and in particular, in Democratic-controlled cities and states.
Trump administration lawyers filed an emergency appeal last week asking the court to reverse judges in Chicago who blocked the deployment of the National Guard there.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2025-10-24/supreme-court-presidential-power-to-use-troops-in-us-cities

OBSERVATION - Trump is on solid constitutional grounds in calling out the NG for exactly the security missions he wants.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump met with Emperor Naruhito of Japan at the Imperial Palace - a warm and symbolic meeting marking the start of Trump’s Asia tour.
The two discussed the strong U.S. - Japan alliance, regional security, and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

Illegal Immigration –

Per four senior DHS & Trump admin sources, a mass removal of ICE leadership around the country is underway, with up to 12 ICE field office chiefs being removed & reassigned in an effort to increase deportation numbers. I’m told the move is spearheaded by Corey Lewandowski, and a handful of the ICE Chiefs will likely be replaced by Border Patrol & CBP officials, some of whom will be hand-picked by aggressive & controversial Border Patrol Commander Greg Bovino. I’m told some of the ICE leadership removed from their positions include the ICE Field Office Directors in:
- Los Angele
- Phoenix
- Philadelphia
- Denver
- El Paso
- San Diego
- Seattle/Portland
- New Orleans

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2025/10/28/there-was-a-major-shake-up-at-ice-last-night-heres-why-n2665551

OBSERVATION - I haven’t seen the receipts on this as of yet, but I strongly suspect that many of these are holdovers from biden regime who are dragging their feet in an effort to sabotage Trump’s efforts.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers first part of the week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight on October 28, Russia launched 38 attack drones, mostly Shaheds, from Kursk and Oryol. Ukrainian air defenses shot down or jammed 26 of them. Strikes were recorded at 4 locations, with drone debris falling in one more.

Russian losses per 28/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1060 men
+6 tanks
+28 ACVs
+8 artillery
+2 MLRS

Considerable reports of major action along the front. Handle with gentle acceptance as much is also wrapped in propaganda. However, the reported Russian losses (above) support the reports.

Yesterday near Dobropillia, Russian marines launched one of the largest mechanized assaults in recent weeks, 29 armored vehicles aimed at taking Shakhove and Volodymyrivka (some 18 km (11 miles) northeast of Pokrovsk).
Ukraine repelled the attack after 6 hours, destroying 12 APCs, 2 tanks, and repelling the infantry with FPV drones.

Results of Ukraine’s defense:
- Destroyed: 15 vehicles (2 tanks, 12 IFVs/APCs, 1 light vehicle)
- Attack repelled after 6+ hours of fighting

The enemy sought to complicate the actions of Ukrainian Defense Forces by advancing in small groups of 4–5 vehicles along different routes and at different times. They also relied on poor weather conditions to limit the effectiveness of Ukrainian UAVs.

In the southern front area, Russian forces lost 22 of 26 assault vehicles in a single day near Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia Oblast. When survivors attempted to surrender, their own command turned FPV drones on them.

Russian channels report that Ukraine drones have attacked the Moscow region for the 2nd day in a row

Analysis and Future Operations —

The fighting around Pokrovsk has reached a level that suggests that Russia has begun its new offensive. They have thrown a lot of tanks and armor into the fight, and apparently have suffered a lot of losses with minimal gains. As noted earlier, they are attempting to use fog and poor visibility to their advantage against Ukraine drones, with little success too. However, infiltrators into Pokrovsk have continued to cause problems for the Ukraine defenses and additional reserves are being brought in to repulse the intruders. There may be a degree of desperation by Russia because mud is becoming increasingly a factor and will soon loose any benefit that tanks and armor can bring to the fight.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas stalling on repatriation of Israeli remains may result in Israeli resumption of attacks.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israeli Broadcasting Authority: Israel decides to halt Hamas field visits with the Red Cross in areas under its control in Gaza.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

On Monday, Israel lifted the state of emergency for areas near the border with Gaza for the first time since 7 October 2023, Defense Minister Israel Katz announced

***
Reports now indicate that Hamas turned over body parts from a person already recovered. The “body” that Hamas handed over yesterday: remains of the body of Ofir Tsarfati, who was extracted from Gaza in a military operation nearly two years ago.

The remains of 13 hostages still remain in Gaza.

PM Netanyahu is set to hold a meeting today to decide Israel’s response to a Hamas, after several options were recently reviewed with U.S. officials.

Israel’s finance minister Smotrich:

I intend to demand from the Prime Minister to order the IDF to re-arrest today all the terrorists who were released in the hostage deal to Judea and Samaria in response to Hamas’s repeated violations.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

The Israeli army says its airstrike in the northern West Bank village of Kafr Qud this morning killed one of the three Palestinian terror operatives. Snipers of the Israel Police’s Yamam counter-terrorism unit had opened fire on the operatives, killing two and wounding a third

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas blatant delays of the return of hostage remains now has reached a point where Israel may take a more aggressive stance and action. Trump administration at this stage is not indicating that it will interfere.

Pressure increasing on the Lebanese govt to act against Hezbollah. Time has given Hezbollah the chance to reorganize and rearm to the extent where they pose a significant threat to the Lebanese Army.

Lebanon -

BEIRUT (Reuters) -U.S. envoy Morgan Ortagus is expected in Beirut on Monday for talks with Lebanese officials on disarming militant group Hezbollah, sources familiar with her visit said, amid fears in Lebanon that Israel could launch a renewed air war on the group.

Lebanon fears the bombing shows Israel intends to ramp up its air campaign, despite a November 2024 ceasefire that was intended to end a year-long war between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Another U.S. envoy, Tom Barrack, warned last week that Hezbollah may face a new confrontation with Israel if Lebanese authorities fail to act quickly to disarm the group in full, which Hezbollah has rejected doing so far.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-envoy-ortagus-expected-in-lebanon-as-tensions-with-israel-spike/ar-AA1PgNNJ?ocid=BingNewsSerp

***
UNIFIL reports that an Israeli drone flew in an “aggressive” manner near a UNIFIL patrol, in response to which they attacked the drone to disable it.

OBSERVATION - These blue hats better watch out as the FAFO principle bites hard when messing with Israel.

Syria -

Following earlier movements near Ain Eisha and Ain Nuriya, Israeli forces advanced further in Quneitra with tanks and military vehicles, reaching Tal Ahmar and Ain Nuriya, and set up positions along key roads. Syria condemns these repeated incursions

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Two U.S. Air Force B-1B “Lancer” Long-Range Heavy Bombers with the 34th Bomb Squadron are currently tracing the coast of Venezuela over the Southern Caribbean, less than 50 miles from the Venezuelan capital of Caracas. At several points, the bombers likely came within only a few miles of Venezuela’s National Airspace.

Misc of Note –

Taking a moment to emphasize the important of having communications in place in the event of a disaster. The massive hurricane hitting Jamaica is a case in point.

Hurricane Watch Network (HWN) activated HF comms for the affected region. The Hurricane Watch Net (HWN), a group of Amateur Radio Operators trained and organized to provide essential communications support to the National Hurricane Center during times of hurricane emergencies, is carefully monitoring the storm’s development.

Operational Frequencies
• 20 meters: 14.325 MHz (USB) – daytime operations
• 40 meters: 7.268 MHz (LSB) – nighttime operations (7:00 PM–7:00 AM EDT)

They are operating in support of the National Hurricane Center.

Other emergency frequencies include -
7.198, 7.098, and 14.198 MHz,

I strongly encourage folks to get their Ham licenses and get their equipment up and running. But those without can also monitor these frequencies using a short wave radio with side band capabilities Side band is essential since with out it you would hear what sounds like starters droids talking to each other. Upper sideband is used on the 20 meter frequencies and lower sideband for the 40 meter.

I monitored 7.268 MHz for a little while last night. Basically communications from net control to all who could listen, plus calls for contacts with any stations in the affected regions. Net will be busy this week.

CW2 / Domestic violence - National Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 28, 2025

DATES TO NOTE -
.
CRITICAL DATE - Nov 1, 2025, EBT and SNAP benefits are gone due to govt shutdown.

Nov 5 - Revolutionary Communists to “flood” Washington, D.C. protests

MASS BLACKOUT - Nov 26 - Dec 2. Economic boycott.

22 November rally in Washington, D.C by “Removal Coalition”

NOTE - Additional protests being announced for DC, assessing the potential for violence or other direct action.

***

EBT RIOTS -

Interested in just how many people in your county are receiving SNAP/EBT benefits. FO provided a link that gives the answer -

https://frac.org/maps/snap-county-map/snap-counties.html

NOTE - Some counties may show relatively low percentages, but due to urban concentrations, the percentages in smaller sections may be substantially higher. Use carefully and with discernment for the specifics of your county.

***
Folks at Forward Observer are noting that they haven’t detected any national organizations beginning to organize SNAP protests. This infers that at the moment, any outbreak of looting will be independent, but can spread like a disease quickly.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Commander of Naval Station Guantanamo Bay, Capt. Mike “Heavin” Stephen, has announced a shelter-in-place order for the remaining mission-essential personnel at the base, in preparation for Hurricane Melissa, which is expected to strike Eastern Cuba on Wednesday. Non-essential personnel and the families of service members were evacuated earlier this week to Naval Air Station Pensacola in Florida.

POLITICAL FRONT –

From ABC News, Border Patrol chief ordered to meet with judge daily on Chicago immigration crackdown. We now have a federal district judge micromanaging the day-to-day operations of an executive branch agency. Apparently, she doesn’t like his tactics, With Bovino appearing before her dressed in uniform, Judge Sara Ellis of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois ordered him to meet with her in person each weekday

OBSERVATION - These rogue judges will need to be put down and hard by the USSC if our judicial system is to regain any credibility.

***
Senate Democrats on Tuesday voted for the 13th time to block a House-passed bill to reopen the federal government, despite a plea this week by the nation’s largest federal workers union to end the 28-day shutdown.

The House-passed measure to fund the government through Nov. 21 failed by a 54-45 vote. It needed 60 votes to advance.

Only three members of the Democratic caucus voted to advance the bill: Sens. John Fetterman (Pa.), Catherine Cortez Masto (Nev.) and Angus King (Maine), an independent who caucuses with Democrats.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) said before the vote that Republicans need to start negotiating an extension of expiring health insurance subsidies in order to bring federal employees back to work.
He noted that the open enrollment period for the health insurance marketplace under the Affordable Care Act begins on Nov. 1.

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5576629-senate-democrats-government-funding-bill-shutdown/

OBSERVATION - Democrats refused pressure from baseline democrat supporting unions to pass the measure. Now Schumer tosses in the “open season” complication into the mix.

***
CNN has reported that Republican approval rating have gone up during Chuck Schumer’s shutdown.

“It’s actually UP 5 POINTS since pre-shutdown!”

“Up 8 POINTS among Independents!”

“Up 12 points with the base!”

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1983208386721440142

OBSERVATION - The fact that CNN is reporting these numbers at all speaks volumes about how poorly the Schumer shutdown strategy is playing out. When CNN is forced to admit the strategy has collapsed, it’s safe to say the left’s talking points aren’t fooling anyone anymore.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump arrived in South Korea, the final stop of his Asia tour. He’ll attend the APEC Summit in historic Gyeongju, and is set to hold high-stakes trade talks with China’s President Xi on Thursday.

North/South Korea –

President Donald Trump said on Wednesday a trade deal had been struck with South Korea, in remarks that sent the won up against the dollar, as a compact promises to dispel uncertainty for the trade-reliant economy.

“We did, we did. We did reach a deal,” Trump said in response to a query on whether a deal was struck, ahead of a dinner hosted by South Korean President Lee Jae Myung.

“We made our deal, pretty much finalized it,” he added later, without giving details.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/trump-u-s-south-korea/2025/10/29/id/1232288/

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
Personnel Issues –

In a sign of ongoing state budget troubles in Russia, multiple regions have reduced their military signing bonuses by 80%.
On Monday, Saratov’s governor signed a decree lowering the bonus paid to those who sign up to fight in Ukraine from 2.2 million Rubles to 450k. Yesterday, Orenburg Oblast reduced its bonus from 2 million to 400k.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 40-50 degree range with rain and rain showers first part of the week.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s air defense forces shot down or jammed 93 Russian drones overnight out of 126 launched, including around 80 Shaheds. The attack came from several directions across Russia and occupied territories. Drones hit 10 locations, but most were intercepted over northern and eastern Ukraine.

Russian losses per 29/10/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1150 men
+4 tanks
+3 ACVs
+20 artillery
+1 MLRS

Ukraine drones attacked oil depot in Hvardiyske near Simferopol, Crimea. Very large fire reported. Ukraine drones also attacked an oil refinery near Yoshkar-Ola, Mari El Republic, and Stavrolen chemical plant in Budyonnovsk, Stavropolskiy kray of Russia

In Donetsk region, drone pilots from the Phoenix Separate Regiment of Unmanned Systems repelled another Russian assault. Twelve armored vehicles were destroyed, including four tanks, two IFVs, and an MT-LB. Around 40 Russian soldiers from a sabotage group were eliminated.

SBU strike drones destroyed a Russian Pantsir-S2 air defense system, two radar stations, and hit two oil depots in occupied Crimea

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian troops have entered the outskirts of Myrnohrad in the Pokrovsky district of Donetsk region, said Hryhory Shapoval, spokesman for the “East” operational command. “Heavy fighting is underway, street fighting,” said Hryhory Shapoval

ISW assessment:. Russian forces recently advanced in southeastern Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk), but these advances are unlikely to cause an immediate collapse of the Ukrainian pocket in the Pokrovsk direction.

The Ukrainian 7th Army Corps reports on the situation near Pokrovsk: Russia has deployed around 11,000 troops in its attempt to encircle the Pokrovsk agglomeration, with infiltration groups pushing northwest and north of the city. In total, about 27,000 personnel, 100 tanks, 260 armored vehicles, and 160 artillery systems are concentrated in the area.

Analysis and Future Operations —

The fight for Pokrovsk is reaching a critical point. Unconfirmed, but probable, reports that Russian FPV drones are controlling access into the Ukraine town and pocket, making resupply difficult. Over a year of concentrated attacks have ground the Ukraine defenses down to the point where Russians can enter the town on foot thru gaps. I expect that Ukraine is making plans on pulling out to newly established defensive lines to the west of the town.

If the Ukrainian 7th Army Corps assessment is correct, even if the city falls, Russia will be hard pressed to exploit the breakthrough.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Israel launched airstrikes in response to Hamas’ attacks

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israeli Defense Minister Katz signed an order banning visits by Red Cross to terrorists imprisoned in Israel

“Based on the information presented to me, it is clear without a doubt that Red Cross visits to terrorists will seriously harm national security.”

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Hamas violated the ceasefire by attacking Israeli troops near Rafah. Israel responded with heavy air strikes that targeted areas in central and northern Rafah. Over 100 terrorists were killed during 14 hours of airstrikes carried out in retaliation for the killing of an IDF soldier. Hamas field commanders and key terror tunnels were also targeted and destroyed.

Military sources say the ceasefire will resume at 10 a.m.

***
Trump said on Tuesday that Israel has the right to retaliate after Hamas attacked IDF soldiers in Rafah.

Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump described Hamas as a “limited factor” in the Middle East deal.

“They killed an Israeli soldier. So the Israelis hit back. And they should hit back,” he said, adding, “If Hamas does not behave, they will be terminated.”

***
The White House had hoped that pressure from mediators, along with a weekend deadline issued by President Donald Trump, would compel Hamas to comply. That did not happen. Instead, Hamas staged a deceptive handover of additional remains of Ofir Tzarfati, who had already been returned to Israel in the past.

Tensions escalated further Tuesday when Hamas terrorists opened fire on Israeli troops in Rafah using RPGs and sniper rifles, prompting Israeli airstrikes across Gaza.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/bk8700jralx#autoplay

***
Senior political official: In a discussion held by the Prime Minister, it was decided to expand the area that Israel holds in the Gaza Strip beyond the yellow line. The Prime Minister coordinated the move with senior American officials.

***
IDF Chief of Staff Zamir: “Hamas committed to returning the remaining bodies of hostages, but it is breaking its commitment.

We know well the nature of this organization, an organization built on terror, deception, and fraud. We will not remain silent about this-we will continue to act to return all our kidnapped for burial, this is our moral and ethical duty.

If Hamas does not fulfill its commitments, it will bear responsibility and pay a heavy price. We will continue to act with strength, faith, and responsibility. Many challenges still await us; the war is not over yet.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

In addition to hitting Hamas underground bunkers hard, Israel is retaking land back and moving the “Yellow Line” forward into area under Hamas control. The US administration is saying that the ceasefire is ‘holding’, but in reality only by a thread. Absolutely no condemnation from the WH over Israel’s response.

Lebanon -

The American envoy has issued a stark warning to Lebanon: “This is your final opportunity to dismantle Hezbollah. Either you enter negotiations with Israel - or Lebanon will be left to its fate.”

U.S. envoy Tom Barrack delivered what he described as Lebanon’s last warning, saying:

“You have one final chance - either learn the lesson and enter talks with Israel, or Lebanon will be abandoned to its own destiny.”

In his message, Barrack emphasized that Lebanon must take decisive action against Hezbollah and move toward direct negotiations with Israel if it wishes to avoid total collapse.

OBSERVATION - Unspoken is that the US has tied a lot of aid to Lebanon to their actions to disarm and remove Hezbollah. Lebanese leadership across the board have to decide to fish or cut bait very soon.

Syria -

Factions from Sweida are targeting the internal security checkpoint in the village of Al-Matouna in the northern Sweida
countryside with heavy machine guns and mortar shells.

Suwayda 24 correspondent: Intensive reconnaissance flights over Suwayda following a flight by warplanes, likely Israeli.

OBSERVATION - Not specific, but suggests that some of the ‘nomadic” islamic tribes are potentially getting into a scrum with the Druze in the region.

Central / South America General-

4 more drug boats sunk in the pacific off Mexico.

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