Posted on 10/28/2024 6:01:30 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
How can anyone act surprised that the most likely outcome from the start, appears to be what is going to happen?
By every indication, Trump has the momentum and lead, although slight, in the 2024 election polling. With barely more than a week left before the election Trump has had the lead for a good while now in the Real Clear Polling battleground states aggregates taking the lead on Sept 22nd, and has now taken the lead in the Head to Head national polling, as well the national multi candidate polling.
Now, any honest assessment of this race, no one should be surprised by this occurrence. By any measure, Harris is a weak candidate. Her only electoral experience has been to win 2 statewide races in California. Running as a democrat in a state where a ham sandwich will win as long as they have a D beside their name, and as Willie Brown’s “protege”, the path through the Democratic primaries was effectively cleared for her. Her attempt to run for the Presidency in 2020 was an abject failure, not even being able to survive until the first primary contests occurred. Furthermore, up until the push by the media and democrats to remake her image once she replaced Biden, she polled as the least popular VP in the modern era.
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When Harris ran for the Senate in California in 2016, her opponent in the *general* election was another DEM (Loretta Sanchez). That shows you just how screwed up California is, and it also says that Harris hasn’t had to run a real campaign. Well, she did attempt to run in the DEM primaries in 2020, and she failed miserably.
Knowing how the failed opponent and her peeps operate, is there possibly a million votes by 0600 11/6/2024. Or will we be done by 2200 11/5/2024. 🙏😊👍
Due to all the declarations of victory before the election is over, Trump supporters might get the idea that they need not bother to go to the polls. Maybe that’s what Democrats want.
Why? Here are a few possibilities:
1) We’ve been playing football with Lucy for decades, and she always grabs the ball right before we would kick it.
2) We’ve all been in relationships where we were told that we were the only one, then were left behind when the other ran after a jerk.
3) We know how far our country has fallen in moral depravity and narcissicism, and we don’t know when God’s grace is going to finally step aside and be replaced by God’s justice.
Preposterous, of course, but remember that millions of Americans don't know what a woman is and vote persistently for politicians who rob them, endanger them and their children, and have turned their once magnificent cities into crime-ridden, drug-dazed, poverty-stricken hellholes.
Sorry, but I find this argument nonsense.
Yes everyone needs to get out and vote, but if you think Trump Supporters are going to get complacent, I don’t think you’ve been paying attention for the last 9 years.
These people will crawl over broken glass just to cast their vote. There has not been any politician that has elicited so much consistent support in my lifetime.
Even those that haven’t been Trump supporters from the start, and are only moving to him this cycle, they are moving to him for reasons that are not likely to have them not show up.
Economic survival, Crime, being personally insulted by his opponent and her surrogates. Yes, no one should get complacent, but I just don’t see any way Trump voters aren’t showing up to vote.
Reagan had a small polling lead over Carter at this point in 1980.
But that was a different country.
Unfortunately none of this matters. Her record doesn’t matter, her intelligence doesn’t matter, her likability doesn’t matter, her polling doesn’t matter, none of it matters.
All that matters is that like Biden she is a body to put in the seat and do what she is told to do. Nothing more than a proxy place holder and seat warmer. It is not Harris Trump is running against here. And to concentrate on her personally is a distraction and deflection from the true threats Trump and our nation are up against.
Polls are terrible, unless they support my side, in which case they’re infallible.
Fraud is the mitigating factor.
Don't you remember 2020? You think Biden was a strong candidate? You think he was stronger than Trump? These people are living a pipe dream. She doesn't need to be a strong candidate if you have the cheat working full throttle.
I agree with you.
The people are very motivated and aren’t taking anything for granted.
A few things give me hope for the future —
The Democrats ran incumbent President Joe Biden for re-election. But they they realized that he would lose in a blowout. In an unprecedented move, the Democrats staged a coup, tossed Joe out and replaced him at the last minute.
So now the Democrats are running incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris. No votes for her. No primaries for her. No accomplishments for her. She is a blatant stand-in constructed by the people in the shadows to rule over the peasants. And it looks like she will lose in a blowout. Maybe it’s not the person that is being rejected. Maybe it’s the System. Maybe people are tired of “Washington”.
How will the Democrats react for 2028? Is it conceivable that they will push to the Left? Was the problem with Kamala that she wasn’t enough of a radical communist?? No. The Democrats will have to move to the center. They tested the edges of their ideology and it didn’t work.
So, I see crazy Progressive ideas being abandoned, and I see an urge to reform “Washington”. If we can reduce the power of the Deep State and the Media, we really might turn things around.
This. Read it again.
+10, this!
You bring up an interesting point. Harris needs no drugs to enforce the orders of the Deep State. She is so stupid and inexperienced, that that is all of the control that is needed - though perhaps the earrings help.
Perhaps the Deep State is just letting her lose, on her own. Biden’s loss could be construed as a repudiation. Harris’ loss is understandable.
Personally I believe, right now Trump is sitting at a 3ish +/- point lead in the national polling. If he is anywhere near this, It’s over, the result will be pretty much a repeat of the 2016 map with a few more state added. Which I have stated all year, was the most likely outcome for this race.
Now there is still a week plus a day until the actual election, and the momentum is clearly in Trump’s favor, and growing. If this is true, then Trump will likely boost that 3ish point lead a few more points by election day.
If this happens, if Trump truly is around a 5 point lead in the popular vote on election day, he is likely going ot win states NO ONE is even contemplating.
There is no way we get a 1980 election with a 5 point lead, Reagan won by 9 in 1980, however, at 3 point lead at the natonal level, you are looking at states like NH almost certainly flipping and there was a poll out of NH just yesterday showing he had taken the lead there. MN would also be a likely flip at a 3 point margin, but with Walz on the ballot, 3 might not be enough, but it certainly is still a possibility. ME certainly would be possible with a 3 point lead nationally, VA would be on the bubble with a 3 point national lead. NM might even get close with a 3 point national lead among others.
If Trump manages a 5 point national lead, then VA almost certainly will flip. NH absolutely will, ME as well, MN even with Walz on the ballot I would say is better than 50/50 at that point. NM absolutely would be considered a possibility and you could probably name a few others as well.
Trump now has reached the critical mass, the narrative in the media has shifted... Once you get to critical mass you start to see tangential curve on returns. With all but MSNBC in the main stream press now acknowledging that Trump appears to be winning, his numbers will grow more rapidly.. as the psychology of wanting to back a winner kicks in.
Trump being up 3 now, certainly can be up 5+ in a week. Harris is in a death spiral, and her and her surrogates screaming outrageous names and allegations against Trump will do nothing to stop the momentum at this point.
I would love to see Trump crush the national vote by 9, but realistically, this would require a complete collapse to where all Harris has left is the democrat base on her side... and Like it or not that’s just not likely to happen. Too much TDS out there for Trump to open up a lead that large.. Harris could literally murder a child on camera, and she would still likely be able to get mid to upper 40s of the vote, sadly.
Personally as long as Trump wins the WH, I’ll take it and be happy. If Trump takes the popular vote, even if its only by 1 single vote, I’ll be estatic... Just to put a thumb in the eye of all the TDS folks and the left.. Honestly if Trump wins the popular vote, the melt down will be insane. If Trump wins the popular vote by a good margin 3 points or more, I will be elated. The last vestige of the “we won the popular vote” will be gone.
Personally I see democrats in a very very very real bad place long term, not just this election, but all future elections and its been a trend that I’ve noticed for a while now... the Obama election gave them a repreive so they think the long term Trend is good for them, but I honestly see the complete opposite.
The Rust Belt is re-aligning.. 2016 was the beginning, 2020 didn’t end it, it was just long term re-alignments don’t always happen linearly, and 2020 with the covid lock downs and malfeasance was a one off.
I believe and have for a long time, that upper midwest is going to re-align and will become as reliable Red as the south over the next 10-20 years.
Democrats are long term becoming an isolated party... We will see if that happens, but I believe it is going on today.
Her 2020 campaign manager’s resignation letter spelled out how incompetent Kamala is. That letter should be in the Smithsonian. The left ignores reality and wonders what went wrong.
Like Tucker Carlson mentioned last night, when Harris winds up with 85 million votes....
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