Posted on 10/23/2024 5:31:27 AM PDT by Red Badger
Updated, 10 PM, 10/22/24
Good evening, blog mates.
Headline: Rurals matter.
Especially when they are turning out 3.5 points above their registration and producing landslide ballot wins (58-20) over the Ds. Consider that Other 22 percent will mostly go to Trump, too, and maybe we should be talking about the GOP firewall in the rurals this cycle. It’s up to 16,500 out of only 44,000 ballots cast -- and that's without allocating the indies.
R statewide lead: Almost 14,000
Clark D firewall: 5,000
Washoe D advantage: -2,200
Total voters: 320,000, or 16 percent of registered voters. Could be approaching a quarter of entire vote, depending on turnout.
Dems are only winning the urban Nevada ballot race by 1 percent – 38-37.
Repubs have a nearly 3 percent turnout advantage statewide. It’s 3.5 percent in Clark, less than a point in Washoe and Dems actually are turning out slightly more than Repubs in rural Nevada in percentage, but the reg is so overwhelming that it doesn’t help them.
The details:
Clark is about 72 percent of the turnout, a point under reg; Washoe is about 15 percent, or nearly 2 points under reg; and you know where the other 3 points go.
Latest mail vs. in-person:
Dems up 12 points in mail, which is 56 percent of turnout (holding steady). Repubs lead by 25 points in in-person voting, which is 44 percent of the total vote.
Here are the latest extrapolations under various electorate mixtures (if you forgot, the first breakdown is Dem voters, second one is GOP split and the third is others):
So right now, if Harris won indies by 6 and they both held their bases, she would lose by 7,000 votes.
The rural firewall. It’s a thing.
More tomorrow, send any questions, criticism, praise, typos to ralston@thenvindy.com and if you appreciate my work here, please donate to our nonprofit. We like recurring donations the best.
Every bit of good news will be met with a large bucket of cold water.
1) If these were illegals voting, it would show in these numbers. These numbers are early voting, illegal or not. So that point is inconsequential.
2) “Independents now outnumber both parties in party ID by a lot.” A comment from a FReeper above. This is the single most important reality of this year. Independents have eclipsed both parties. They are not stuck between the two parties. They have their own issues of interest. They don’t lean or not lean. They care about different things — like the Swamp, like bitcoin, like the debt. They do not care about abortion or tax cuts or spending. Particularly the latter, since they have seen both parties raise the debt ceiling over and over (and if the GOP takes Congress, it will be the GOP pushing for that . . . AGAIN).
3) The OP presentation is horrendous. It is opaque. It does not say what % all these numbers represent of the total registrations nor how any of it (rurals) compares to 2020.
True, smaller States will have lower ballot counts to overcome through cheating.
Take Georgia in 2020, your turf, I think:
Biden 2,473,633
Trump 2,461,854
That was after the cheat.
It wouldn’t be too difficult to back into the number of fraudulent ballots needed from actual ballots cast to get that 2.474M Biden final 2020 number.
Trump had an average poll of +1 over Biden at the time. At 1%, he had a 24,618 vote lead based on final ballot counts. Biden finished 11,779 ahead of Trump for a total of 36,400 estimated illegal ballots added. These are, of course, unverifiable numbers, but it does show a rough estimate of ballot stuffing required.
Today, Baris has Trump leading (D) by +4. Using 2020 ballot stuffing estimates, the dems would need to stuff over 120,000 ballots, and possibly 145,000+. Possible, but a much more difficult thing to do.
Add to that, the fact that this -- not being Covid-affected 2020 -- will be an election much different than that past one.
I hope no covid means lots more in-person voting, which is far harder to overcome through cheating.
With those mail in ballots they threw (R) ballots away and stuffed (D) ballots, claiming they were mailed in and legit.
One of the silliest lies told is that there couldn’t possibly by cheating because every single instance given of a cheat is countered with “evidence” that the accused cheating action actually wasn’t a cheat. Yet, we have total of ballots far above the registered voter counts.
You’re a computer software guy, so I know you, too, could easily create a cheat proof election system, yet we do not have one because no one in power wants it.
Blockchain.
Damned straight!
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