Posted on 10/23/2024 5:31:27 AM PDT by Red Badger
Updated, 10 PM, 10/22/24
Good evening, blog mates.
Headline: Rurals matter.
Especially when they are turning out 3.5 points above their registration and producing landslide ballot wins (58-20) over the Ds. Consider that Other 22 percent will mostly go to Trump, too, and maybe we should be talking about the GOP firewall in the rurals this cycle. It’s up to 16,500 out of only 44,000 ballots cast -- and that's without allocating the indies.
R statewide lead: Almost 14,000
Clark D firewall: 5,000
Washoe D advantage: -2,200
Total voters: 320,000, or 16 percent of registered voters. Could be approaching a quarter of entire vote, depending on turnout.
Dems are only winning the urban Nevada ballot race by 1 percent – 38-37.
Repubs have a nearly 3 percent turnout advantage statewide. It’s 3.5 percent in Clark, less than a point in Washoe and Dems actually are turning out slightly more than Repubs in rural Nevada in percentage, but the reg is so overwhelming that it doesn’t help them.
The details:
Clark is about 72 percent of the turnout, a point under reg; Washoe is about 15 percent, or nearly 2 points under reg; and you know where the other 3 points go.
Latest mail vs. in-person:
Dems up 12 points in mail, which is 56 percent of turnout (holding steady). Repubs lead by 25 points in in-person voting, which is 44 percent of the total vote.
Here are the latest extrapolations under various electorate mixtures (if you forgot, the first breakdown is Dem voters, second one is GOP split and the third is others):
So right now, if Harris won indies by 6 and they both held their bases, she would lose by 7,000 votes.
The rural firewall. It’s a thing.
More tomorrow, send any questions, criticism, praise, typos to ralston@thenvindy.com and if you appreciate my work here, please donate to our nonprofit. We like recurring donations the best.
“Go away with your loser attitude.”
It isn’t a loser attitude. It is be realistic that the cheat is still to come, that it can be very large and real, and to stop celebrating a Trump win until the job is done.
If you ego is that thin skinned as to not want to hear facts about cheating then maybe you should stay off the Internet until after the election is done.
Ralston is a legend in Nevada politics. This is huge that he is predicting a Harris loss even if she wins indys by 6 points. The whore state will bring Trump to 268 without the Midwest.
Agreed. Voting should be one day, in person, with I.D. Why is it otherwise, one might wonder...
Then came the Democrat illegal alien vote ...
My point is that it tells the fraudsters EXACTLY the threshold they need to target for printing/flipping votes.
I’m good with finding out with everyone else after all the counting is done, preferably as fast as third-world countries accomplish it, rather than their slow-walking the ‘final’ counts to permit the fraud to occur.
Some people here confuse realism with pessimism
What if some of those registered Dem voters are voting for Trump?
Then it’s even better!...............
There is a limit since you have the Maximum being the voter registration count. Transparency is better. They did this in 2020 in Florida and they couldn’t steal Florida.
Gives the team opportunity to close the gap in Vegas since they don’t have to spend as much effort in Rural.
I’m praying and hoping a few predicted blue states flip to Trump as an outrageous surprise. Dream bigly right?
Amen. Rhetorical, but also literal, question: Why on earth do we permit the circus that our elector process has become?
“numbers...you can be darn sure the Dems have insiders information.....so maybe it’s a good thing”
You nailed it.
Those who are pearl clutching on here don’t seem to understand that the RATs have always had access to these numbers.
Releasing them to the public does zero harm to Trump.
Pessimism says there will be cheating so we might as well face the loss.
Realism says there will be cheating so we had better pay attention to stop the cheating and do what we can to not take a loss.
Respectfully submitted, I feel your math is flawed because you fail to account for regional differences in the overages. California, for example, may have 500000 more votes for a Democrat, allowing proportionally more Republican votes to be significant in swing states.
It's f**ing hopeless until we restore a VOTE.
This electronic internet clown show is not an election.
We are SO vulnerable.
And who has been for all this newfangled voting all along? The RATS plus the stupid among us.
Crybabies of Free Republic, Unite!
“Waaah Waaah Waaah”
Correct—the are counting party affiliation.
They are releasing the party affiliation of those who voted.
Those are not “voting numbers”.
FR pearl clutchers after they win a million dollar lottery.
“But—I have to pay taxes on that.”
Lol.
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