New Polling May Cause Dem Freakout: Shocking Rust Belt Numbers, More Signs Blue States May Be in Play

Red State ^ | October 08, 2024 | Nick Arama

[Red Badger]

We've spoken before about how Vice President Kamala Harris doesn't seem to have the same labor union support that President Joe Biden enjoyed. We've seen this play out in a variety of ways, with unions like the Teamsters and the International Association of Firefighters choosing not to endorse Harris when they usually endorse Democratic candidates. The data on the Teamsters polling showed that every state went for Trump over Harris, including every swing state and even blue states.

This is a big problem for Harris, particularly in the Rust Belt states that she desperately needs.

Now, there are more reports confirming she has a problem.

First, there's internal polling out of Wisconsin from Sen. Tammy Baldwin's campaign.

An internal poll done by Democrat Tammy Baldwin’s Senate campaign last week showed Harris down by 3 percentage points in Wisconsin, while Baldwin was up by two points, according to a person familiar with the poll. The person said much of the narrowing is due to Republicans’ strength with noncollege-educated men. Public polling has shown Harris with a slight lead in the state.

Cook Political has now moved Baldwin's race from lean Democrat to a "toss-up." With some coattails from Trump if he can pull off a win, that could bring an unexpected Senate win there for Eric Hovde.

That wasn't the only good news. There was also the Democracy Institute polling. That has Trump up in the national popular vote +3. He's ahead in PA +4, Wisconsin +2, and Michigan +1.

Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh 🚨 Latest polls from Democracy Institute:

🔴 NATIONAL: Trump+3

🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: Trump+4

🔴 WISCONSIN: Trump+2

🔴 MICHIGAN: Trump+1

🔵 VIRGINIA: Harris+2

🔵 NEW HAMPSHIRE: Harris+2

🔵 MINNESOTA: Harris+4

Her campaign is freaking out.

The poll also showed that half of voters would vote for Trump in the upcoming election, while 47 percent backed Harris.

Voters also favored Trump in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, with half backing the former president, while 46 percent selected Harris.

The results also showed Trump narrowly beating Harris in the swing state of Michigan by one percentage point. In Wisconsin, 48 percent of people preferred the Republican, while 46 percent backed Harris.

If that's true and it holds up, that's likely the game.

But on top of that, there are the blue states, which should have been considered safe, which have now tightened and two of them appear to be within the margin of error.

In both Virginia and New Hampshire, 47 percent of voters favored Harris, while 45 percent backed Trump.

Meanwhile, in the traditionally Democratic state of Minnesota, Harris beat Trump by just four percentage points.

It's possible that, with a night of momentum, Trump could pick off a place like Virginia.

So, more movement in the right direction. Hold onto your hats and get all the folks you can to get out and vote. Let's ensure it.

[dp0622]

Very good point.

What the hell happened in NY? I’m 56 and I remember Rs always had the senate.

It changed, what, 10 or so years ago?

I guess conservative upstate NYers left.