Posted on 07/01/2024 8:56:16 AM PDT by Kaiser8408a
It's hard. What is? US hard economic data!
With 'hard' data collapsing in the last month, 'soft' survey data from ISM and S&P Global this morning was 'mixed' as usual:
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.3 in May to 51.6 for the final June print (down very modestly from the 51.7 flash print).
ISM US Manufacturing PMI dropped from 48.7 to 48.5 in June (well below the 49.1 expected)
Source: Bloomberg
Need more confusion...
S&P Global noted that higher supplier charges were signaled in June. Alongside rising labor costs, this resulted in a further marked increase in input prices. But, ISM saw Prices Paid plunge from 57.0 to 52.1, well below the 55.8 expected...
Source: Bloomberg
New orders rebounded in June but employment dropped back into contraction. On the bright side, Orders/Inventories (typically a leading indicator), ticked up in June...
Source: Bloomberg
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:
“Factories have been hit over the past two years by demand switching post-pandemic from goods to services, while at the same time household and business spending power has been diminished by higher prices and concerns over higher-for-longer interest rates. These headwinds persisted into June, accompanied by heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook as the presidential election draws closer."
Finally, despite the uptick, Williamson admits the truth under the surface of the survey:
"Business confidence has consequently fallen to the lowest for 19 months, suggesting the manufacturing sector is bracing itself for further tough times in the coming months.”
However, we are sure business owners everywhere were reassured by the commander-in-chief's commanding performance in the debate last week. /sarc
(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...
“I knew a guy who had a pallet of silver delivered to his house back in the 1980s. I was like, what are you going to do with that? You could have bought ONE bar of gold.”
In 1980 and 2011 Silver had a bigger runups than gold.
I knew it was Confounded Interest.
I think the Baby Boomers and Generation X are still driving the economy. Meaning most of us(1963) now either own their homes outright or are very close. Our kids are out of college.
Many of us Boomers have no debt. So, even though dinner out now cost $100-200 they are still going out.
Generation X did not have as many kids. My daughter did not. Even though she is happily married. They now own a C7 Corvette. Bought it six months ago used with 30K miles. My son in law took me for a ride in it yesterday. We stopped for lunch. The two places were full of old rich people. My son in law(40) was the youngest person in both places we stopped.
However, most younger people CAN NOT afford to keep eating out. People in general, that are not wealthy baby boomers are getting squeezed.
This is why GDP is 1.4% and trending lower. Will we go lower than 0.0% GDP growth for two quarters(the definition of a recession) who knows. Jamie Diamond the head of the largest bank in the world says yes.
Silver and gold both hit record highs within the last few months.
Recently, silver is down about 10%. Gold down less than 5%.
The US Dollar refuses to collapse.
USD at $105.5 as I write this.
Neutral is $100. Above $100 indicates strength.
USD has been above $100 for 27 months.
I continue to wonder about the usefulness of precious metals if/when things get really bad here. I suppose it was good to hold silver and gold during the Weimar hyperinflation.
But Germany was a polite and orderly society. If things get crazy here, I would think that a guy with a can of beans would prefer to trade it for a few bullets instead of a silver coin.
Yes, when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market it went to all time highs in 1980. I still own 1976 Bicentennial coins I overpaid for back then. Then it dropped for twenty YEARS to a low of $7.48/oz in 2001. Then going straight up again like you mentioned to a high of $48/oz in 2011. Then dropped to $17.60/oz in 2018.
Most recently we have seen a high of $34. No it s back down to $29.
Today’s price on EBAY for 20 bullion coins is: $714.40 = $35.72/1 oz US Walking Liberty coin. This is from Pinehurst Coins out of NC.
https://www.ebay.com/itm/314241077693
My last purchase was $590.47 ($29.52) on April 4th of this year
The guy with the bullets in the gun will just take the can of beans.
I am still 90% down where I was pre Chomo. I have some new orders coming in. But with the JIT delivery schedules I won’t start until next year.
bump for later.
Have you ever met or heard of survivalists who stock up on the beans, avoiding being prepared to protect themselves?
If society collapsed how long do you think a murdering thief would last among the prepared?
Thanks. Maybe.
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