Posted on 06/17/2024 5:48:01 AM PDT by Red Badger
Trump is now favored to win the election in November, with 538’s simulations using polling, economic, and demographic data show a four-point lead over Biden.
In the early afternoon, 538 projected Trump winning 50 out of 100 times with Biden winning 49 out of 100 times in their simulations. In a 2 pm update, Trump’s lead grew, with the former president winning 52 out of 100 times and Biden winning 48 out of 100 times the simulation was run.
Of 1,000 simulations run, Trump came out on top in 509 of them, while Biden won in 487 of the runs. There was no winner in 4 of the simulations.
538 states that its forecast "is based on a combination of polls and campaign 'fundamentals,' such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency. It’s not meant to 'call' a winner, but rather to give you a sense of how likely each candidate is to win."
As Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk noted, this is the first time Trump has, in any of his three campaigns, led a 538 forecast.
538’s simulations also found that Trump is more probable as of Friday to win the Electoral College, while Biden is more likely to with the national popular vote. Trump was found to win the Electoral College with less than 350 electoral votes 38 out of 100 times, while Biden won 28 out of 100 times. Biden was found to win the national popular vote 59 out of 100 times while Trump won 41 out of 100 times.
The simulations also found that Trump has a far higher chance of winning at least one state that he did not win in 2020. Trump won one of these states 80 out of 100 times, while Biden won one of these states 48 out of 100 times.
Letting Joe Biden win will put a stop to that for good. Staying home will be the only option.
They may cheat him in for the win but I will at least know that I didn’t capitulate.
People could at least vote and hope Trump wins so that innocent victims of Merrick Garland lawfare can be pardoned.
It's being suggested that The Former Twelfth Lady is tanned,rested and ready.
why don’t you call Trump and give him your expert advice.
Nate Silver previously has said Trump had no ability to win the presidency, over a period of five or more weeks, in interviews, yet, he went on to win the 2016 election.
538 is a crud site.
[...who pretty much hate him due to his caviler treatment of women in general.”
You have any recent examples to offer? By recent, I mean anything that doesn’t refer specifically to Hillary Clinton or Rosie O’Donnell?
As for your comment, If Trump’s current black/Latino support is even kind of accurate, there is no math for Biden to win — full stop.
We’ll have to see what Biden does with cheating and the illegal immigrant vote between now and Election Day. They’ve shown their ability to steal, will they do it while the world is watching and expecting it?
They said if he can get 15% of the black vote, he wins. He already has it. Now you’re saying it’s the women’s vote.
1) For zero rational reason, one can pretty solidly presume that 1/3 of posts onto a polling thread will be about cheating and fraud and vote counting.
2) Biden’s 2020 score was a 7 million vote advantage. 5 of those in California and 2 in NY. This is enormous concentration. We can reliably presume it hasn’t changed, and thus for Trump to have closed a national popular vote gap and even lead it in some measures means all those states that are NOT California or NY have surged his support.
3) The 538 guy has been beating the drum lately on replacing Biden. Biden will absolutely not be replaced if even one poll shows him with a lead, and a few do as of now.
4) Michigan and Wisconsin in all polls to date have been very close and Biden has the lead in a few of them. It is for this reason the GOP should be shutting up about Israel. Michigan’s Muslim population is sufficient to flip that state from 2020, even if not a single additional black moved to Trump.
Trump wins 100 out of 100 in a fair election, but there's a high probability that's not what we'll get.
Who is”They”?
Who is”They”?
Remember when Trump was leading in all the swing states then they stopped the count in the middle of the night? Then when the count resumed Biden was suddenly ahead? That wasn’t awesome.
Well, there’s your problem right there: they forgot to factor in the massive fraud/cheating.
It does not work that way.
That’s because polls themselves were not accurate in 2016.
LOL
Indeed, I don’t trust Silver either. However, libs do trust Silver and reference his polling and his 538 site all the time.
I’m getting out the popcorn, MSNBC, CNN etc may be suicidal.
“Trump’s going to lose, unless he makes an effort to molify the female vote”
The female vote isn’t the issue. No person’s vote is the issue. Cheating is the issue.
My fast forward and replay buttons going to need lubrication.
“Just wait till the first debate.”
**************
The first rigged debate. A fake debate if you will.
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