Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Can this be true???
I have been reading that the devices are overloaded and blowing up said device, pagers, cell phones etc.
Can they do this to cell our phones?
This is ruthless........
Only altered ones. They manage to get the lithium battery to overheat, setting an explosive off.
I’ll be mostly off line starting friday thru monday. On a fun trip.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
See Terrorism below for associated actions.
Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Sep 2, 2024
Police reportedly found ‘explosives’ in car near former President Donald Trump’s rally site on Long Island ahead of his speech Wednesday evening.
If it is confirmed, it would be the latest shocking security breach and comes just three days after a would-be assassin was arrested at his Palm Beach golf club.
Sources in the Nassau County Police Department allegedly told One America News Network journalist James Lalino that the rally site ‘perimeter was breached and a blue barrel was removed.’
In addition, during the K9 sweep they apparently ‘found an explosive device in one of the vehicles.’
The sources allegedly said the driver ended up running into the woods.
OBSERVATION - The police are disputing the bomb claim/report. But overall, this is an expected progression of the left’s campaign of violence.
***
Approximately 20 attendees of Trump’s Tucson, Arizona, rally reported becoming ill with mysterious symptoms such as blurry vision and swelling shortly after the rally concluded.
All those who reported falling ill were seated on the side of the stage where Trump made his entrance before approaching the podium.
One attendee says the doctor informed her that she had suffered a chemical burn.
OBSERVATION - This is a serious development - attacking attendees of a rally within the rally itself. OR WAS THIS INTENDED AS AN ATTACK ON TRUMP. The proximity to where Trump entered the arena may also point to an attempt to affect Trump personally and even going as far as having insider information / support to identify which side he was coming in from as well as hiding a delivery device. NOTE - no device was found as of yet.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced a long-awaited interest rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate by 50 basis points from what was the highest level in 23 years as the central bank eased borrowing costs following progress in the fight against inflation.
The Fed’s first interest rate cut since March 2020 lowers the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%.
Interest rates had been at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% since July 2023, the highest level since 2001.
OBSERVATION - The half point drop is a mixed blessing. It indicates that the Fed believes it waited too long to start their ‘soft’ landing and now has to pull hard on the stick. For people in general, a half point will do very little for them as loan interest rates will still be exceptionally high and with their depleted savings and other reserves, they are unlikely to be able to take advantage of the lower rates. Others view this move as the Fed trying to balance inflation against losses of employment and choosing to try to increase employment at the expense of lower inflation. Final results of the rate decrease won’t be fully felt for an number of months - past the election. But initial actions may be evident though politically amplified.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****
Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
The Teamsters union announced it will not offer an endorsement in the 2024 presidential election, though its members overwhelmingly support former President Donald Trump.
The union said in a release that it received few commitments on top Teamsters issues from Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.
Nearly 60% of Teamsters members who participated in an electronic survey support Trump compared to 34% for Harris. A survey conducted over the phone found Trump leading 58% to 31%, the union said.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/teamsters-kamala-harris-donald-trump/2024/09/18/id/1180844/
OBSERVATION - Some local/regional level Teamster organizations, primarily in battleground states, expressed support for harris. Failure to nationally endorse a democrat candidate is a major event for the historically liberal Teamsters.
***
Lawmakers rejected a Republican government funding plan Wednesday amid divisions within the party, with former president Donald Trump calling for a forced shutdown unless certain demands are met.
With government funding set to expire at the end of September, the bill was voted down in a 220-202 vote, as some House Republicans joined Democrats to oppose it.
The six-month extension proposed Wednesday would have punted the shutdown deadline into March 2025, when the next president would already be in the Oval Office.
The draft also included the SAVE Act, a Trump-backed measure that requires proof of citizenship when registering to vote in federal elections.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/lawmakers/2024/09/18/id/1180879/
OBSERVATION - Chances are increasing that we’ll hit a govt shutdown by the first of next month.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Kamala Harris just unveiled a new accent while speaking to the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Sep 1, 2024
Iranian hackers sought to interest President Joe Biden’s campaign in information stolen from rival Donald Trump’s campaign, sending unsolicited emails to people connected to the Democratic president in an effort to interfere in the 2024 election, the FBI and other federal agencies said Wednesday.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/iran-fbi-election-interference-dni/2024/09/18/id/1180871/
Illegal Immigration –
Over 2.75 million foreign nationals have entered the U.S. without authorization in the current fiscal year, according to recent data released by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
This figure encompasses encounters and apprehensions across all U.S. borders, both at ports of entry and in areas between these official crossings, totaling 2,756,646 following the publication of August’s figures. The government’s fiscal calendar starts on October 1st and ends on September 30th each year.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range, fair but with scattered light rain.
NOTE - Remnants of Storm Boris will potentially impact portions of Ukraine over the next several days. Forecast is likely for the southern half of the nation to feel excessive rains.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reported on a combined Shahed/missile attack overnight.
Shot down:
0/3 S-300/400 ballistic missiles
1/1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile
42/42 Shahed drones
Toropets arsenal follow-up. Maxar collected imagery shows extensive damage from a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack that caused a series of explosions at an ammunition depot in Toropets, Russia. The attack caused extensive damage to the facility and surrounding forested area which continues to burn. The imagery shows extensive smoke covers much of the area and a closer look at the ammunition storage area indicates that fires continue to burn in and near some bunkers.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
ISW is assessing that Russia’s counter offensive efforts are failing. The Kremlin aimed for a 5-to-1 troop ratio for its counteroffensive in the Kursk region, but this goal might not be met yet. Currently, around 37,000 Russian troops are in the area. The objective is to expel Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region by October 15 and establish a buffer zone along the border with Russia by October 30. Current observations show this not to be happening.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Heorhiyivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Outlook —
Ukraine increasingly successful strikes on major Russia ammo depots is going to stress Russian logistics in a significant way. Currently, Ukraine can hit with their drones, however, many of these sites would be wide openly exposed to ATACMS systems that are nearly impossible to intercept. This could force Russia to disperse and move these facilities further back from the front - increasing an already heavily overwhelmed logistics system.
Russia’s Kursk counteroffensive appears to be grinding to a halt - even with the employment of VDV forces. Basically it appears that Ukraine is winning a maneuvering war.
Action in the Donbas continues with Russia maintaining that to be their primary effort, but is not gaining very much ground very fast - and at a high cost of men and material.
I expect things on the ground to remain much the same. Only wild cards are deep operations involving missiles and drones by both sides.
Europe / NATO General –
European Parliament: We call for lifting restrictions on Ukraine strikes deep inside Russia
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Second wireless attack targeting Hezbollah hand held radios. Hundreds hurt and over a dozen killed.
- Rapid build up of Israeli forces in the N Israel region.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
An Israeli civilian was arrested last month for allegedly being recruited by Iran to assassinate Israel’s prime minister, defense minister, or the head of the Shin Bet. The Shin Bet and Police say in a joint statement that the suspect was smuggled into Iran twice and received payment to carry out the missions.The suspect was indicted today.
***
The IDF’s 98th Division is being deployed to northern Israel amid heightened tensions with Hezbollah, after months of operations in the Gaza Strip under the Southern Command.
The paratroopers and commando division will now join the 36th Division under the Northern Command.
***
Israelis across the country received fictitious text messages under the title of “emergency alert” late on Wednesday night, which called on them to leave where they were and find a protected area, Israeli media reported shortly after the incident.
The possibility that the message was sent out by Iranian officials has been undergoing examination, KAN News reported after the messages were widely spread out.
Furthermore, the IDF responded to the fictitious message and clarified that they did not send out the text announcement, KAN added.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-820776
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continued search and destroy operations. Artillery and air strikes across the whole overnight.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli Army Radio: 10 rockets were fired from southern Lebanon towards Zar’it in the Western Galilee
ROUND TWO OF EXPLODING COMMS DEVICES
This is unfreeking believable. Two days in a row the covert efforts of Mossad slam an already disoriented and confused Hezbollah with another targeted bomb attack. Yesterday, hundreds of ICOM brand ‘walkie-talkie’ radios exploded at about the same time throughout Beirut as well as potentially in Syria! Explosions reported in warehouses belonging to the IRGC militias near the Imam Ali base in Al-Bukamal countryside, eastern Syria.
At Al Hadath: Explosions reported at a Popular Mobilization Forces headquarters in the Al-Ghabat area of Mosul, Iraq, coinciding with explosions of Hezbollah communications devices throughout Lebanon
The Assad regime has instructed all its military and security units to cease using wireless devices and rely solely on landline phones.
Lebanon’s Ministry of Health: At least 14 dead and 450 injured in the explosions today. The Lebanese Minister of Health: The devices that exploded today were larger - the number of casualties is expected to rise.
Numerous fires and other damage being reported as the radios were capable of holding a lot more explosive than the pagers.
These radios are popular for combat comms used by many across the world. Made in Japan, the ICOM corporation says they do not make the models (IC-V82s) identified in the blasts any more. Used radios are abundant on the global market and at a relatively cheap price and there are plenty of sources of batteries for them. A sales executive at the US subsidiary of Icom told The Associated Press news agency that the exploded radio devices in Lebanon appeared to be knockoff products that were not made the company – adding that it was easy to find counterfeit versions online. It took the BBC a matter of seconds to find Icom IC-V82s listed for sale in online marketplaces.
It is believed that these radios were part of an emergency communications system which was supposed to be used during a war with Israel, the sources said. With the destruction of the pager system, the radios came out for use.
An interesting coincidence are reports that suggest the walkie-talkies that exploded were purchased by Hezbollah five months ago, according to a security source speaking to Reuters news agency. This would also be about the same timeframe as the pagers were purchased and distributed.
RUMINT. According to reports in Lebanon: most of Hezbollah’s communication systems are disabled, thousands of operatives are unable to participate in combat.
RUMINT. Apart from pagers and walkie-talkies, other devices such as fingerprint devices, solar power systems and radios are now exploding too
RUMINT. Reports say that Hezbollah purchased all the communication devices from a European shell company covertly owned by Israel which means they also paid Israel for all the devices that exploded!
There are reports now that all recently acquired electronics - computers, radios, watches, etc - are being collected and destroyed across Lebanon.
OBSERVATION - An attack on hand held radios like this is a logical follow-on to the pager attack, but in some ways would be more technologically challenging. The placement of explosives in replacement batteries is relatively easy, but the triggering mechanism is a little more tricky. These ICOM units are made for Hams and are in the 2 meter band. Two meter units here in the US commonly use repeater networks to extend the range. These repeaters use different tones to signal the repeater to ‘repeat’ the broadcast. A tone could have been programmed into the unit’s firmware to trigger the device. This means that the rest of the units would have had their firmware modified. However they managed it, 400 or so of these units going off at the same time is an astounding accomplishment.
SURGE IN PRE ATTACK INDICATORS
- Israeli Army Radio: Transfer of combat units from the Gaza Strip and the West Bank to the border with Lebanon
- Public preparation: Israel Defense Minister Gallant says “we are in a new phase of the war” after the wave of explosions in Lebanon
- Massive transport of military equipment towards staging areas in N Israel.
- Channel 12 reports the Israeli cabinet has authorized PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to take decision on making “defensive and offensive” actions against Hezbollah - assessed to include a possible decision to engage in a full-scale conflict.
- Increase in border area exercises.
***
RUMINT Tomorrow from morning until noon, a military exercise will take place in the Haifa city area.
During the exercise, a lively movement of vehicles and many security forces will be felt.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Aggressive Israeli security forces operations continue.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iranian President: Israel bombs hospitals, schools, buildings, kills civilians in Palestine because we are not united
***
Jerusalem’s Old City, in addition to Judea and Samaria, must be Judenrein within a year, according to a Palestinian-drafted resolution, which the U.N. General Assembly passed on Wednesday.
The resolution, which passed by a 124-14 margin with 43 abstentions, is meant to give force to a July advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice, which declared Israeli presence to be illegal in any area over the 1949 armistice line.
More than 40 countries sponsored the resolution, which was the first that Palestinians filed after being granted unprecedented privileges, for a non-U.N. member, earlier this year.
The resolution calls on the Israel Defense Forces to withdraw completely from Judea and Samaria, eastern Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip within 12 months, which means evacuating all Jewish communities beyond the armistice line, including Jerusalem’s Old City.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-50/
OBSERVATION - This resolution has no teeth absent a security council affirmation. It does set the stage for global antisemitic actions by the standard global players. This essential pushes for pre-1967 borders, a scenario that is untenable for Israel’s defense.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Yaroslav Trofimov on “X” writes pretty much what everyone is thinking: “Blow up pagers, force the surviving Hezbollah cadres to rely on walkie talkies, and then blow up the much bigger explosive devices inside the walkie talkies. A TV spy series producers would rule out this twist plot as impossible to believe in.”
Does Israel have other cards up their sleeves? The one-two punch has thrown Hezbollah command comms into disarray and has savagely impacted their ability to coordinate a war with Israel. They are reportedly having to use less reliable means to try to coordinate any Israeli attack. But right now, Israel has isolated many Hezbollah units making them susceptible to quickly being taken out because they cannot coordinate with other supporting groups.
Speaking of supporting units - even Iranian backed militias apparently got hit by the exploding hand helds. This indicates that these militias will likely be disposing of these radios and batteries like Hezbollah is - making them short for future operations.
Noting the war indicators above, I’m still holding to the strong possibility of Israel moving on Lebanon by the weekend. The successful comms strikes of the past couple days does not have a long shelf life and as I said before, Israel may not get another shot at a weakened Hezbollah like this in a long time.
What will Iran try to do? I think in part that they are sweating more bullets. A number of years ago, Israel managed to get malware on critical computer systems and destroyed a substantial number of Uranium centrifuges. What similar fun and games does Israel have embedded in Iran? When Israel launches its anticipated assault on Hezbollah, Iran may be forced into some kind of response, but in many ways not on the terms it wanted.
Speed at which Israel is moving units to the border strong suggests action by this weekend. I’ll be trying to follow the action from the wilds of Yellowstone. . . .
Iran –
Iran’s Armed Forces issued a statement warning the US and Israel that the passage of time will not diminish Iran’s resolve to retaliate against the assassination of late Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran
Misc of Note –
Of for the matter of additional craziness, a new sunspot cluster is coming into alignment with the earth. It has already sent off two low level X category flares.
Interesting Godzilla. Thanks. Have an enjoyable trip.
Enjoy your trip.
ISRAEL ALERT
Quickly before hitting the road. Following all day - IAF has increased their attacks by nearly an order of magnitude, launching over 100 airstrikes in the last few hours targeting Hezbollah sites between the border and the Litiani River.
Largest airstrikes since Oct 7th by far - and that includes the preemptive strikes of a few weeks ago.
This is pre-invasion softening of the targets - classical.
Israel ground units will be in Lebanon by the weekend.
I warned - war is on. Hezbollah trying launch rockets. Full reserve call up by Israel
Smerconish on CNN asked today which was most dangerous - enemies from within (I’m assuming he was talking about Trump supporters and folks who fought with flagpoles on Jan 6th) or China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea joining together against the US... something like that. I couldn’t finish watching because the premise was insane.
If Iran pulls the world in - and has nukes - I guess we’ll find out. Of if Israel is baiting them so they can take out the nuke capacity before it happens... that might save the world. We’re on the knife’s edge and idiot journalists are worried about Trump voters.
How fast could this go bad?
I never doubted you.
I do worry for Israel.
Ok back at it again, buckle up.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
Monitoring the UN summit for news.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
Pretty quiet on the CW front. Antifa and affiliated leftists and pro-hamas elements relatively calm.
Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Sep 2, 2024
Reports that there are as many as 5 assassination teams that have illegally crossed the border and are targeting Trump.
***
(FO) During a House Homeland Security Committee hearing, Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA) said his sources reported that likely over 2,000 illegal immigrants on the FBI terror watch list have crossed over the southern border. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) released at least 99 illegal immigrants on the watch list into the United States, according to Higgins.
Former FBI Terrorist Screen Center Director Timothy Healy said the surveillance of possible terrorists entering the U.S. is not manageable as numbers have risen from 11 in 2020 to 380 since 2021.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Pentagon: The USS Truman aircraft carrier group will depart for the eastern Mediterranean today.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Congressional leaders announced an agreement Sunday on a short-term spending bill that will fund federal agencies for about three months, averting a possible partial government shutdown when the new budget year begins Oct. 1 and pushing final decisions until after the November election.
***
Harris is skipping this year’s Al Smith dinner on Oct. 17. Speculations is she is afraid of having to come up with spontaneous replies to trump and others who will be there.
Biden / Harris Watch –
This week’s White House Report Card focuses on the latest evidence that first lady Jill Biden is, and long has been, the power in the West Wing.
On Friday, the White House wasn’t hiding it. At a rare Cabinet meeting, the president handed over the leadership to the first lady, sitting at the head of the table, her prepared notes in front of her.
According to the New York Post, Jill Biden “read from a binder about maternal health initiatives for four-and-a-half minutes after her husband spoke for just two minutes off the top of the meeting.”
Said President Joe Biden in introducing his wife, “It’s all yours, kid.”
Later, she also hosted a Rose Garden event without her husband, who has faded into the background since being pushed out of his reelection campaign by Democratic Party elites who preferred Vice President Kamala Harris in the race.
OBSERVATION - With all heck breaking out across the world, having the unelected wife of the president run the cabinet meetings is an unthinkable abomination.
Illegal Immigration –
See “Terrorism” above
China –
Slumping refining margins amid tepid fuel demand in China have already claimed victims among the refineries in the Shandong province, where two plants operated by chemicals giant Sinochem were declared bankrupt in recent days.
Zhenghe Group Co and Shandong Huaxing Petrochemical Group Co were declared bankrupt after creditors failed to agree on restructuring plans for the refineries, local court statements showed on Tuesday, as carried by Bloomberg.
A third refinery operated by Sinochem in the Shandong province, home to China’s independent refiners, is expected to begin meetings with creditors later this month. This is Shandong Changyi Petrochemical Co, per a separate local court statement cited by Bloomberg.
In August, Chinese refiners were estimated to have processed around 12.6 million bpd of crude oil, down by nearly 10% compared to July and 17.5% lower compared to August last year, ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a Monday note.
The numbers suggest that apparent oil demand fell below 12.5 million bpd, down by more than 15% year-over-year and to its weakest level since August 2022.
OBSERVATION - Decreased oil production and associated lowering of prices for refined product is a symptom of poor economic conditions in general. One the past couple years, I’ve noted that China’s economic engine has struggled to regain its footing following wuhan. When the economy isn’t moving, neither are vehicles (trucks and cars) which reflect economic status. Add to it the continued property woes of Evergreen and other financial sectors and things just aren’t rosy for China.
NOTE - Gasoline prices here have dropped lately because of the slumping economy as well.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia attempted to conduct some nuclear saber rattling through a show of force by conducting a test fire today of the RS-28 Sarmat aka Satan 2 and it ended in complete failure.
The missile detonated in the silo leaving a massive crater and destroying the test site.
Logistics –
The Ukrainian drone attack on ammunition depots in Toropets, Tver Oblast, near the Estonian border, resulted in the detonation of 30,000 tonnes of explosives, which equates to about 750,000 artillery shells. According to EDF Col. Kiviselg, the ammunition had been transported to the depot shortly before the attack. The loss represents two to three months’ worth of Russian ammunition supply.
Since then, two other major ammo dumps have been hit by drones, damage assessment ongoing. One of which is believed to have stored the vast majority of N Korean arms that have been shipped to Russia.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Slow night, Ukrainian air defense shot down 3 of 4 Shahed drones overnight
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Front is relatively static with reports of Russian and Ukrainian attacks and counter attacks.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russia continues to press the fight in this sector.
Mandatory evacuation of families with children starting in Pokrovsk tomorrow
Outlook —
While I was out, Ukraine nailed three major Russian ammo dumps. The largest just as I departed, Toropets. Loss of that much ammo production is going to hurt.
However, Russia continues to ramp up the use of glide bombs along key sectors of the front. Virtually unshootdownable, they carry massive explosive charges and can be released by Russian fighters bombers generally outside the Ukraine ADA envelope. So with decreased artillery, they seem to be making up for it here.
Tracking other Russian losses over the past week, personnel killed or otherwise removed from combat were at levels 20-30% higher than already high levels. Numbers of tanks and other armored vehicles destroyed increased significantly over the period as well. These reports don’t say which sector these losses occurred in but judging from the focus of Russia’s assault being Pokrovsk axis and general reports of larger, probably battalion sized attacks, this is where they are taking a beating. Winter is coming fast, so to is the determination / desperation by Russia to gain Pokrovsk before they lose good weather and soil conditions.
Ground fighting expected to continue as in past weeks. The ‘deep war’ with missiles, and drones will ebb and flow.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Lebanese requested to flee border areas as well as if adjacent to Hezbollah sites.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Level of supporting airstrikes have dropped dramatically across Gaza as the airpower has shifted towards Lebanon.
Minor ground skirmishes along the Phildelphi corridor
Reports that Israel is investigating whether Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar was killed in IDF strikes in Gaza. There is no clear intelligence to support the claim.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Since this morning, the Israeli Air Force has struck more than 300 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, the Israeli army says.
NOTE - Before the weekend, IAF strikes were normally in the 10 - -20 range, this represents and order of magnitude increase in air strikes.
Estimates that Hezbollah has lost most of its upper echelon command over the past week from Israeli airstrikes and the pager attacks.
Hezbollah continues to launch rocket attacks, but numbers are far fewer than one would expect - in the few hundreds of rocket range per day. Sunday for example, 150 rockets were launched over the course of four barrages. Compare this to the un- degraded Hamas rocket attacks in the first few days starting Oct 7 when over 1000 were fired per day.
Lebanon received 80,000 suspected Israeli call attempts today with message for Lebanese to evacuate their areas, head of Lebanese telecoms operator Ogero @ikreidieh tells Reuters. He says calls came from abroad, are “psychological warfare to make havoc and chaos.”
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari issues a message to Lebanese civilians in border villages, warning them against Hezbollah’s use of their homes to store weaponry.
RUMINT - Hezbollah had plans to launch a preemptive ground assault within the next couple days.
“To all the residents of the villages in Lebanon, in the near future we will strike terror targets in Lebanon. We call on everyone who is near properties or inside homes where Hezbollah is hiding weapons, we call on you to distance yourselves from them immediately. This is for your safety and protection,” he says.
UNIFIL asks its civilian employees and their families to leave for (relatively) safe areas north of the Litani River. Multiple countries calling for their citizens to immediately leave Lebanon.
OLD NEWS - IDF spokesman: About ten Hezbollah commanders were eliminated in addition to Aqil. According to Sky News, Mohammad Raza, deputy commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards, was also killed.
SURGE IN PRE GROUND ATTACK INDICATORS
- Hezbollah has raised the red flags as a declaration of war
- Israeli military and govt note that the go has been given for war and that the current ramped up airstrikes are the initial phase.
- Tanks and armor continue to pour into staging areas in N Israel
- Reservists continue to assemble for operations.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
There continues to be a mild build up of Iranian backed militias assembling in Syria.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Aggressive Israeli security forces operations continue.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Over the weekend there were several rocket / drone attacks sourced from Iraq, likely from Iranian backed militias.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to mass forces for a ground invasion. The IAF is continuing battlefield preparations in addition to even more aggressively taking out Hezbollah’s rocket / missile capabilities.
As I’ve noted over the course of the last 11 months, the Gaza fight and Hezbollah’s contribution via rocket launches has given Israel the opportunity to significantly degrade their capability and the past few days have borne that out.
The impact of the Lebanese terror group’s counterattack so far, while much farther and potentially deadlier than its general attacks limited to the Upper Galilee and Golan, has been significantly less than expected by the IDF and the general public, given its pre-war arsenal of 150,000 rockets. So far, peak rocket fire has been about 400 rockets per day.
Hezbollah launch sites and ammo dumps are going to hazardous work sites for the near future. If you think Israeli intel has been good in targeting mobile terror leaders, imagine the volumes of data they have on stationary sites.
Iranian backed militias will continue to fire under the relative protection of Iraq, but the volume of fire will be very low, more of a minimal harassment.
Repercussions from the pager and ICOM explosive attacks have made coordination of Hezbollah’s war effort very difficult - having to resort to much, older methods and those likely already compromised by Israel. Loss of comms, combined with the loss of high level leadership has hurt. Even Iran is having to take a step back and recheck its comms.
I jumped the gun a little on my expectation of ground war to start by the weekend, but two key dates now popup as likely triggers. October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year and Oct 7, the anniversary of the start of the current war, within a couple weeks. That would permit the reserve units to be fully up and running. Israel is fully capable of starting the ground component much, much sooner as suggested by warnings for Lebanese to evacuate now. Clearly Israel has the initiative and can launch the ground offensive at any time of their choosing.
Iranian involvement? Well, the window is closing again with the return of a second US carrier group - USS Truman. Set to depart today, it will likely arrive in the eastern Med in about a week, week and a half. At this stage, Iran seems to be only offering words of encouragement. However, I further expect that the militias in Iraq will be receiving a lot more missiles (covertly) from Iran in an effort to increase pressure on that front.
Iran –
Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has ordered all members to stop using any type of communication devices after thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by its Hezbollah allies in Lebanon blew up in deadly attacks last week, two senior Iranian security officials told Reuters.
One of the security officials said a large-scale operation is underway by the IRGC to inspect all devices, not just communication equipment. He said most of these devices were either homemade or imported from China and Russia.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hj9vefaa0
***
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claim they arrested 12 people on charges of cooperating with Israel and planning actions against the country’s security
Syria -
Over the weekend, reports of explosions in the area of the American Al-Shadadi base in northeastern Syria.
Thanks Godzilla
Globalism / Great Reset –
While everyone was distracted, the global elite got exactly what they wanted. The UN adopted the “Pact for the Future” on September 22nd, and the mainstream media in the western world almost entirely ignored what was happening.
The text of the “Pact for the Future” is found at the link below -
https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/ltd/n24/252/89/pdf/n2425289.pdf
The UN press release also boldly declares that the “Pact for the Future” will “lay the foundations” for a new “global order”…
OBSERVATION - This agreement, restructuring the UN into version 2.0 is a globalist panacea. Read it at the link. A key point is that while it provides a structure for taking over the world, it still lacks the teeth with which to do so. References to a future ‘global shock’ are a clue to one mechanism that could transition this control. Bottom line is that this is another chess piece being put into place for the globalists to use in the future.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
“Some [migrants] belong to the one-time Venezuelan prison gang turned vicious multinational crime syndicate Tren de Aragua who sources in Chicago told The Post are heavily armed, brazen and spilling into areas of the South Side. Those areas are traditionally controlled by hundreds of entrenched gangs from the Gangster Disciples and Black P Stones to the Vice Lords, Latin Kings and Satan Disciples.”
OBSERVATION - Go to the link for greater details. Renewed gang warfare in these major urban areas has been festering for a little while and it is beginning to look like things are going to get froggy. As noted, the ‘threat’ of these Venezuelan gangs may cause existing Chicago gangs to ally together in a US vs immigrant fight. Chicago gangs may be in for an early awakening because the Venezuelan gang is from a far more aggressive background whereas the Chicago gangs at a relative balance - but still violent.
In a grid down style scenario, I’ve said that inter-gang warfare in the urban areas would be the first to occur, then as power is consolidated, they will move outwards into the suburbs for more resources (riches and food). Assess your setting.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
America’s manufacturing sector saw its sharpest contraction in over a year in September even as overall business activity growth remained robust, according to new data from S&P Global, which also showed inflationary pressures reaccelerating.
The latest S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, a survey-based monthly overview of factory activity in the United States, fell deeper into recession territory in September, data released on Sept. 23 shows. The manufacturing index slumped to 47.0 in September, down from August’s 47.9 and the lowest in 15 months. Readings below 50 represent a contraction in activity.
The decline signals continued deterioration in business conditions within the manufacturing sector, which has been plagued by weakening demand and falling new orders. In particular, new orders in September fell at their fastest pace since December 2022, as manufacturers struggled with declining export demand and reduced domestic sales.
Slumping employment also made a significant negative contribution to the downbeat manufacturing figures, with job losses accelerating at a pace not seen since June 2020.
“Excluding the pandemic, the decline in factory jobs was the steepest since January 2010 as an increasing number of firms reported the need to reduce operating capacity in line with weak sales,” the S&P Global report states.
OBSERVATION - This is a behind the curtain look at why the Fed did the unusual by dropping rates a half of a point last week. These numbers as the article notes are RECESSION indicators, not only for manufacturing but jobs as well.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The United States is deploying additional troops to the Middle East amid heightened tensions in the region, the Pentagon announced on Monday.
Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, would not provide any details to the Associated Press about how many additional forces Washington would send or what their mission would be, the wire reported.
Later it was confirmed that the 101st Airborne’s Combat Aviation Brigade “Wings of Destiny” will deploy from Fort Campbell, Kentucky, to US Central Command .
OBSERVATION-
Observers have seen a noticeable increase in C-17 flights departing from Fort Campbell. According to U.S. officials, this activity appears to be related to contingency planning for a possible evacuation of U.S. personnel or civilians from Lebanon, as well as force adjustments in the Middle East. At least 16x C-17s and 13x KC-135s, plus a suspected MC-130J, involved in the movement of equipment & personnel ahead of the acknowledged troop increase for the Middle East.
Illegal Immigration –
“4 RPGs and 8 IEDs along with a large amount of ammo discovered in a scout site in Mexico just across the Arizona border which butts up against the Ajo area of operation within the Tucson Sector,” NewsNation’s border correspondent Ali Bradley wrote on X on Monday afternoon.
Bradley said, “Border Patrol agents are being warned of the “drastic escalation” in weaponry being used on the south side of the border—According to an internal alert obtained through sources.”
“The fighting within the Sinaloa cartel, spilling over the border with multiple instances of armed men showing up to the southern border in the same area fleeing into the US for safety,” she added.
OBSERVATION - Cross over of cartel violence has been growing over the past few years and discoveries like this are of increasing concern. The proximity to the border almost insures that cartels will draw upon such caches for use in the US.
China –
Seeing some reports that China’s economy is facing serious hurt and that its equivalent to the Fed may be kicking on the printing press to pump out more yuan. At the same time drastically dropping interest rates.
Japan –
Russian aircrafts were intercepted by Japanese fighter jets firing warning flares, Tokyo officials reported - escalating fears of violence across the globe.
In an urgent media briefing today, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi announced that Russian planes trespassed into Japanese airspace near Rebun Island in Hokkaido three times from 1pm to 3pm local time
OBSERVATION - This goes beyond entering an air defense zone, but physically flying over Japanese territory.
Russia -
Kerch Bridge update –
Russian army deploying air defense systems on the towers near Kerch bridge.
NOTE - This follows a similar tactic being used by Russia in places around Moscow where they are placed on the tops of buildings.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 66 of 81 Shahed-type drones overnight
Another high day of personnel and equipment losses for Russia.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
No significant changes in the status
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russia still pressing the attack, but getting very little results.
Outlook —
Ground fighting at mostly a status quo, though Russian continues to press attacks across the Donbas region in general.
Europe / NATO General –
(FO) Romania’s Defense Minister Angel Tîlvăr is calling for a NATO-wide response to Russian drone and missile incursions “in NATO airspace in Poland, Romania, and Latvia.” The Romanian Supreme Council of National Defense also announced it is increasing ammunition acquisition in response to the incursions.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel struck over 1300 targets throughout S Lebanon overnight.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,
The IDF is pre-empting threats rather than waiting to respond to attacks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said as he held security consultations as the IDF struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and called on civilians in Southern Lebanon to evacuate.
“For those who have not yet understood, I want to clarify Israel’s policy - we do not wait for a threat. We pre-empt it everywhere, in any arena, at any time.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Relatively minor actions, most noticeably an increase in artillery use vs air strikes.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Operation is officially named by Israel as “Northern Arrow”
Israel continues to launch massive waves of air strikes against targets throughout S Lebanon and the Bekka Valley. The IDF struck over 1,300 targets in around 650 sorties. Many huge explosions noted at Hezbollah rocket depots and many ‘civilian’ targets yielding extended secondary explosions from stored munitions.
The Israeli army issues new warnings to Lebanese civilians in villages where Hezbollah has stored munitions in homes, saying that airstrikes against the terror group will continue today. “Anyone who is around Hezbollah members is putting themselves in danger,” - Colonel Avichay Adraee, the Israeli army’s Arabic-language spokesman
Huge numbers of Lebanese are moving north towards Beruit as well as east into Syria.
Hezbollah fired – almost non-stop – rounds of dozens of rockets across the entire North, over 200 rockets throughout Monday, which extended all the way down to Haifa and Nazareth .
Late Monday night, the Israel Air Force (IAF) attempted to assassinate Ali Karaki, Hezbollah’s third in command the last remaining living member of a triumvirate of top military advisers to Hezbollah chief Hassan Sayyed Nasrallah. Reports were mixed about whether he survived the strike, but at the very least, he appeared to be wounded, with estimates that he would not be able to act in a command capacity for some time. Karaki was supposed to replace Ibrahim Aqil, the Hezbollah Radwan special forces chief assassinated by Israel on Friday.
Internal friction is growing in Lebanon with reports that Druze are locally stopping movements of missiles through their areas. In Beruit, moslems are forceably being kept out of Christian areas.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
High numbers of refugees are entering Syria from Lebanon.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Aggressive Israeli security forces operations continue.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to mass forces for a ground invasion. The IAF is continuing battlefield preparations in addition to even more aggressively taking out Hezbollah’s rocket / missile capabilities.
Mark Wallace on “X”
“Hezbollah is currently being run by everyone who last week Hezbollah thought wasn’t good enough to deserve a pager.”
An interesting comment that may be closer to the truth than we can imagine.
Two key observations. The first being the suppression of Hezbollah rockets. Senior Israeli official claim that after yesterday’s attacks on Hezbollah, only half of the precision guided missiles they had on the eve of the war and only a quarter of the rockets up to 40 kilometers that they had on the eve of the war remained.
Their ability to fire a coordinated barrage of hundreds of rockets and missiles at the same time that would overwhelm the air defense systems was severely damaged.
Remember, Hezbollah boasted about having 150,000+ rockets and missiles and could launch salvos of over 1000 at a shot. Monday they could only muster about 200 for the entire day.
OSINT observers come to a similar estimate, based on the number of major ammo cookoffs that people are posting, the IDF claim to have destroyed 50% of Hezbollah’s stocks doesn’t look implausible. Now that more civilians have cleared out, the IDF may increase targeting of rockets and storage dumps placed among residential areas..
The second observation, linked in part to the first is that Israel is driving the fight in a truly offensive manner, rather than its historical, more defensive way. Let me explain. Historically, Hezbollah or Hamas would launch a rocket attack at a location and time of its choosing, then Israel would retaliate. In some ways this was the pace of the war against Hezbollah in the early months after Oct 7. Things began to significantly change when Israel began to take out senior Hezbollah (Hamas and IRGC) leaders. This was far more proactive, but not totally out of the ordinary except that the volume of assassinations grew exponentially. Seems the dam finally broke when Israel launched the large (at that time) strike by 100 aircraft preemptively hitting Hezbollah launchers poised to fire a retaliatory strike for the loss of one of its key leaders. Following that was the pager/walkie talkie hits and now continued, large scale airstrikes. Hezbollah was not ready to be on the receiving end like this. Their war plans were for something similar to the past that would allow them to dictate the tempo of the fight. They no longer have control over that. As Netanyahu made very clear - “we do not wait for a threat. We pre-empt it everywhere, in any arena, at any time.”
Israel’s preemptive policy may well be ringing loud and clear in Tehran as well. Iran has been pretty quiet towards Hezbollah, and may be thinking about the ballistic and cruise missiles Israel can fire at them while their fighters are busy in Lebanon. More analysts are thinking Iran is cutting its losses with Hezbollah and letting them go it alone, with just minimal help from the “Islamic Resistance”.
I see the next phase kicking off soon as most of the Lebanese civilians have fled the border areas, permitting the Israeli ground forces to move in and start clearing out Hezbollah pockets. As Wallace’s observation above notes, on a national level, Hezbollah is poorly positioned to mount a defense against a ground op. At a local level, Hezbollah may do well, but lacking support from higher up, will turn into death traps for them.
The ground offensive could be started within days.
The time to Prep is now, especially with the potential longshoreman’s strike.
“The time to Prep is now, especially with the potential longshoreman’s strike.”
I have to wonder if the DS PTBs will allow this to occur before the election. Harris’s polling is already lacking in enthusiastic voter approval. A major supply disruption from a strike right now would only reflect negatively on her and Biden and further damage the economy. Unless... the strike itself could lead to another, more dire scenario that could serve as the left’s “false flag” or national threat event. I guess we’ll find out.
Who knows what they’re planning besides what’s worst for the country.
May God thoroughly confuse their counsels, cause them to make bad decisions, and expose their plans for the whole world to see.
“May God thoroughly confuse their counsels, cause them to make bad decisions, and expose their plans for the whole world to see.”
Amen to that.
Globalism / Great Reset –
George Soros has been leaning on the Democrat-controlled Federal Communications Commission for months in hopes of fast-tracking his group’s acquisition of over 200 radio stations in over 40 markets — including stations that run shows from Glenn Beck, Mark Levin, Erick Erickson, Sean Hannity, and Dana Loesch.
OBSERVATION - Soros, in cooperation with fellow globalists, is moving to control speech in the US via this radio takeover. The AM market talk shows are largely conservative and would be killed off by Soros managed networks.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
Students at the University of Michigan are rallying for Hezbollah right now. Notice the Hamas triangles on their banner.
This movement went from pro-Hamas, to pro-Iran, and now pro-Hezbollah.
OBSERVATION - No real change except for signage. Pro-terrorism is pro-terrorism under any of the names.
Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Sep 2, 2024
Donald Trump has been briefed by US intelligence on threats from Iran to assassinate him, his campaign said.
The Republican presidential candidate was briefed “regarding real and specific threats from Iran to assassinate him in an effort to destabilize and sow chaos in the United States”, the campaign said in a statement.
It did not elaborate on the claims, and it was not immediately clear if the threats it referred to were new or had been previously reported.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0z2394ey2o
***
(FO) In a filing with the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida, the Department of Justice (DOJ) released a letter the agency alleges was written by Trump assassination suspect Ryan Routh that offered $150,000 to anyone who successfully assassinated Trump.
Former Attorney General Bill Barr said there was no justification for releasing the letter at this stage of the investigation. “To somebody who’s unbalanced, who’s dangerous, [they] could see that [letter] as some kind of call-to-arms,” former Assistant U.S. Attorney and CNN legal analyst Elie Honig said.
OBSERVATION - The release of the letter with the $150K offer for successful assassination of Trump is being questioned as potentially being used to further assassination attempts on him.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The fleet oiler assigned to the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group was damaged off the coast Oman in the Arabian Sea on Monday, Navy officials confirmed to USNI News.
USNS Big Horn (T-AO-198) was anchored off the coast of Oman after suffering an underwater collision to the stern of the oiler, the official told USNI News. The Navy now plans to use tugs to move the oiler to a nearby port.
“USNS Big Horn (T-AO-198), a replenishment oiler, sustained damage while operating at sea in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations overnight on Sept. 23. All crew members are currently safe and U.S. 5th Fleet is assessing the situation,” according to a statement from a Navy official provided to USNI News.
There are no reports of injuries or fuel leaks from Big Horn, two Navy officials told USNI News on Tuesday.
OBSERVATION - This leaves the Lincoln CSG without fuel for the auxiliary warships (Lincoln is nuclear powered) or for its aircraft. This is disastrous right at the peak of a very dangerous situation growing in the ME.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Over the weekend, President Biden had Zelensky flown into the swing state on a U.S. C-17 aircraft so Ukraine’s president could visit an ammunitions plant in Biden’s birthplace of Scranton.
Zelensky’s tour of the plant on Sunday – the same day he trashed Biden’s Republican opponent Donald Trump in an interview published by The New Yorker – drew national media coverage as the two candidates are engaged in a tightly-contested race for president in November’s election.
OBSERVATION - Zelensky is poking his nose into US president politics in a dangerous way. Many see it as election interference by an outside country.
***
Congress is considering drastic steps, including a possible Constitutional Amendment that would allow for the direct appointment of House representatives in the event of mass vacancies.
According to the Constitution, any emerging vacancies in the House must be filled through elections, unlike Senate vacancies which can be filled by appointment. Changes being considered in the proposed constitutional amendment include replace of members quickly and change various lines of succession in a “national crisis.”
OBSERVATION - Continuity of Govt (COG) issues at this stage are interesting. After 9/11, a law was enacted to enable rapid elections if over 100 House seats are vacant—supposedly to keep the government running as smoothly as possible by expediting the process. Some see that these proposed changes can also be used to abruptly remove congress critters in the face of a ‘disaster’ and replaced. Lead by democrats, no doubt there is subterfuge behind the actions.
Illegal Immigration –
Word coming out that more and more small towns in red areas are coming under a flood of imported illegals.
China –
China has said it successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) carrying a dummy warhead into the Pacific Ocean.
The ICMB was launched at 08:44 local time (04:44 GMT) on Wednesday and “fell into expected sea areas”, Beijing’s defense ministry said, adding that the test launch was “routine” and part of its “annual training”.
The type of missile and its flight path remained unclear, but Chinese state media said Beijing had “informed the countries concerned in advance”.
Japan later said that it received “no notice” of the test launch.
China’s nuclear weapon tests usually take place domestically, and it previously test-fired ICBMs west into the Taklamakan Desert in the Xinjiang region.
This is believed to be the first time since 1980 that it launched an ICBM into international waters.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gl843l90zo
OBSERVATION - As noted in the article, this launch was a threat towards Taiwan, Philippines, Japan and their allies as tensions in the Western Pacific continue to increase.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 4 Kh-59/69 missiles and 28 of 32 Shahed-type drones
It appears that Ukraine is preparing to withdraw from Vuhledar and that it is in the final stages of its defense, which has lasted nearly 3 years.
NOTE - Very little left of Vuhledar but rubble.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
No significant changes. Report are that Russia has also largely ceased its counteroffensive efforts.
Kharkiv Front -
Ukrainian forces have fully cleared Vovchansk Machinery plant from Russian troops. Russian forces generally forced out of Vovchansk.
Outlook —
Kinda a lull in the action. Russian movement on Vuhledar the biggest piece of news, a bloody and costly victory that won’t add much to the overall strategic operations as Russia lacks the forces necessary to exploit.
Does seem Russian artillery reports are down somewhat, could be just a factor of non-reporting or beginning to reflect the impact of the hits on major Russian ammo dumps last week.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hezbollah launches medium range ballistic missile at Tel Aviv
- The IDF announced that it had killed Ibrahim Qabisi (Abu Musa), the head of Hezbollah’s missile and rocket force.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
A week after the pagers attack in Lebanon and Syria and Hamas didn’t even launch one rocket or mortar bomb. Gaza has been largely silent.
This has lead to further rumors that Sinwar might be out of commission or even dead.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF maintaining the uptempo air strikes on Hezbollah rocket/missile launch sites as well as ammo storage areas.
Hezbollah said on Wednesday it launched a rocket targeting Mossad headquarters near Tel Aviv, which it says is responsible for assassinating leaders and blowing up pagers and walkie-talkies. The mid-range ballistic missile was intercepted above Tel Aviv area by Israel’s David’s Sling air defense system - designed to intercept ballistic missiles. David’s Sling system, supplements the defense provided by the Iron Dome, Arrow 2 and Arrow 3.
FYI this is the first time ever a missile from Hezbollah has reached Tel Aviv
Shortly after, the Israeli Air Force struck the launcher from which the missile was fired in the area of Nafakhiyeh, located some 12 miles to the east of Tyre in Lebanon.
***
The IDF announced that it had killed Ibrahim Qabisi (Abu Musa), the head of Hezbollah’s missile and rocket force, in a targeted attack in Beirut’s Dahiyeh district on Tuesday afternoon.
According to the IDF spokesperson, Qabisi was accompanied by other key commanders in Hezbollah’s “Missiles and Rockets Force” at the time of the strike. According to Lebanese news sites, at least six people were reported killed and 15 wounded in the attack that killed Qabisi.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-50/
***
Increasing but unconfirmed reports that Druze and Christians setting up checkpoints in their towns/regions to ensure no Hezbollah terrorists try to hide among them.
SURGE IN PRE GROUND ATTACK INDICATORS
- More calls for Lebanese to flee from border areas.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli raids targeted several sites in the city of Tartus, Syria.
Air defenses were activated to try to intercept Israeli missiles in Damascus.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Reuters, citing 3 sources: Iran mediating secret talks to send Russian anti-ship missiles to Houthis in Yemen
Unconfirmed reports that around 40,000 fighters from Iraq, Yemen, and Syria have reportedly arrived in the Golan Heights area, preparing to confront Israel. The 175th Battalion of the 5th Division of the Syrian Army in the border area with Israel in the Daraa region seems to be the focus of the reported assembling of resistance forces.
During the night 2 drones were intercepted above Syria on their way from Iraq to Israeli territory and one drone from Yemen was intercepted on the way from the Red Sea to Israel.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
(Reuters) - Britain on Tuesday mobilized hundreds of soldiers to Cyprus to help its nationals evacuate following a significant escalation between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, urging people to leave immediately.
Sheikh Muhammad Ali Al-Husseini the Shia cleric and the Beirut based head of the Islamic Council in the Arab world and in Lebanon in particular, says: “I say to Nasrallah - your era is over in Lebanon and in the whole world and you should know that there is a turning point in the entire Middle East and you no longer have status and turn and your existence is over and take the initiative and hand South Lebanon over to the Lebanese army”
——— FORECAST ————————-
The ballistic missile attack on Tel Aviv is seen by some as an escalation in the fight. However, put it into perspective - a single ballistic missile flying into the teeth of the Arrow / David’s Sling defenses. More of a desperation shot.
IAF continues to hammer targets throughout Lebanon. This portion of the developing war is keeping Hezbollah on their heels and struggling to mount any kind of sustained counter attack effort. Hezbollah thought they would be in the drivers seat, but have found out. Hezbollah rocket launches for a whole day continue to be in the 100-200 range and have been largely ineffective.
Israel taking out Ibrahim Qabisi, has further hurt Hezbollah’s capabilities to coordinate rocket and missile fire.
The reported buildup of ‘resistance’ forces in Syria may well become a growing concern, however, there are challenges to making such a mob into a combat effective force. First is some means of command and control. Who’s going to lead who. Next is equipment. No reports of any heavy equipment like tanks or APCs - only bodies. No substantial logistic support, unless the Syrian Army is going to do that, but that would expose them to Israel’s wrath as well. Leg infantry going into high intensity combat generally do not have a very long life expectancy. But if the numbers are accurate, it will force Israel to redistribute units to effectively deal with this group.
Iran’s president continues to talk peace and passiveness to the world audience. It seems to be pretty clear that Iran doesn’t want to do anything that could endanger its nuclear program or upset the population any more than it has been. This is putting him at odds with the real power — the mullahs with their IRGC forces. Pezeshkian is walking a very fine line here.
Finally, the drop in Hamas activity in Gaza may well indicate Sinwar has been fatally been cornered. The IAF actions have dropped not only because of the Lebanon action, but by lack of Hamas action. Time will tell.
And if Sinwar is gone, what of the group of hostages he reportedly had around him? Not a good thought.
Israel continues to prep for a ground invasion of S Lebanon. Timing is in their court. I don’t think biden et al will have much say in that aspect either as Washington has been cut mostly out of the pre-operational knowledge of many of the Israeli operations. Could be immediate, but my thoughts look towards sometime between October 2, Rosh Hashana and the anniversary of the Hamas massacre on Oct 7.
Iran –
Iranian president says he does not want war with Israel
“We want to live in peace,” Masoud Pezeshkian told reporters in New York City as the U.N. General Assembly gets underway. “We don’t wish to be the cause of instability in the region.”
OBSERVATION - Pezeshkian getting all kinds of heat from the islamists in Iran for these and other statements.
Turkey –
The United States has reportedly delivered a serious proposal to the Turkish Government, stating that if they transfer operational control over their Russian S-400 missile batteries to U.S. Forces stationed at Incirlik Air Base, certain sanctions may be lifted and they will be reconsidered for the F-35 program.
OBSERVATION - Turkey’s weird relationship and roguish behavior in NATO has caused continued friction. Turkey REALLY wants F35s, mostly to be able to threaten Greece as well as project force better in the region. Greece (and probably other NATO nations) and Israel likely will resist any effort to appease Turkey with F35s, so the friction is likely to continue.
Misc of Note –
I’ve mentioned before the OODA loop assessment method - Observation, Orient, Decide, Act - as a key component of family readiness for disasters.
As we’ve come closer to the election day, the Observation component becomes more critical. We’ve seen the riot threats dissipate into nothing, while disruption from imported illegals and associated criminal gangs have increased. There is a great deal of rumblings under the surface of the swamp’s potential efforts to subvert trump from being sworn in if he is able to get past the democrat cheating efforts. These deep swamp efforts have wide spread violence at their heart, but no clear axis of effort at this stage.
High on my radar is the economy and the concern of a crash. Such could impact food supply network with shortages and renewed high inflation. Associated with that is social unrest that an openly declared recession can bring. My efforts are directed at rest of the OODA loop to mitigate these threats. Massive TEOTWAWKI level events at the national and global level will be mitigated to a degree as well, but pending better intel as to how this is going to go off, one has to deal with the known factors at hand.
One thing is for certain, no matter who wins in Nov, the growing storm will still hit in one form or another.
I whole heartedly agree, I hate to say it.
But I see no other outcome. Too many illegals, too many imported enemy combatants, too many brain washed liberal fascists, too much entrenched corruption in the government and judiciary.
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