Globalism / Great Reset –
While everyone was distracted, the global elite got exactly what they wanted. The UN adopted the “Pact for the Future” on September 22nd, and the mainstream media in the western world almost entirely ignored what was happening.
The text of the “Pact for the Future” is found at the link below -
https://documents.un.org/doc/undoc/ltd/n24/252/89/pdf/n2425289.pdf
The UN press release also boldly declares that the “Pact for the Future” will “lay the foundations” for a new “global order”…
OBSERVATION - This agreement, restructuring the UN into version 2.0 is a globalist panacea. Read it at the link. A key point is that while it provides a structure for taking over the world, it still lacks the teeth with which to do so. References to a future ‘global shock’ are a clue to one mechanism that could transition this control. Bottom line is that this is another chess piece being put into place for the globalists to use in the future.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
“Some [migrants] belong to the one-time Venezuelan prison gang turned vicious multinational crime syndicate Tren de Aragua who sources in Chicago told The Post are heavily armed, brazen and spilling into areas of the South Side. Those areas are traditionally controlled by hundreds of entrenched gangs from the Gangster Disciples and Black P Stones to the Vice Lords, Latin Kings and Satan Disciples.”
OBSERVATION - Go to the link for greater details. Renewed gang warfare in these major urban areas has been festering for a little while and it is beginning to look like things are going to get froggy. As noted, the ‘threat’ of these Venezuelan gangs may cause existing Chicago gangs to ally together in a US vs immigrant fight. Chicago gangs may be in for an early awakening because the Venezuelan gang is from a far more aggressive background whereas the Chicago gangs at a relative balance - but still violent.
In a grid down style scenario, I’ve said that inter-gang warfare in the urban areas would be the first to occur, then as power is consolidated, they will move outwards into the suburbs for more resources (riches and food). Assess your setting.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
America’s manufacturing sector saw its sharpest contraction in over a year in September even as overall business activity growth remained robust, according to new data from S&P Global, which also showed inflationary pressures reaccelerating.
The latest S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, a survey-based monthly overview of factory activity in the United States, fell deeper into recession territory in September, data released on Sept. 23 shows. The manufacturing index slumped to 47.0 in September, down from August’s 47.9 and the lowest in 15 months. Readings below 50 represent a contraction in activity.
The decline signals continued deterioration in business conditions within the manufacturing sector, which has been plagued by weakening demand and falling new orders. In particular, new orders in September fell at their fastest pace since December 2022, as manufacturers struggled with declining export demand and reduced domestic sales.
Slumping employment also made a significant negative contribution to the downbeat manufacturing figures, with job losses accelerating at a pace not seen since June 2020.
“Excluding the pandemic, the decline in factory jobs was the steepest since January 2010 as an increasing number of firms reported the need to reduce operating capacity in line with weak sales,” the S&P Global report states.
OBSERVATION - This is a behind the curtain look at why the Fed did the unusual by dropping rates a half of a point last week. These numbers as the article notes are RECESSION indicators, not only for manufacturing but jobs as well.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The United States is deploying additional troops to the Middle East amid heightened tensions in the region, the Pentagon announced on Monday.
Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, would not provide any details to the Associated Press about how many additional forces Washington would send or what their mission would be, the wire reported.
Later it was confirmed that the 101st Airborne’s Combat Aviation Brigade “Wings of Destiny” will deploy from Fort Campbell, Kentucky, to US Central Command .
OBSERVATION-
Observers have seen a noticeable increase in C-17 flights departing from Fort Campbell. According to U.S. officials, this activity appears to be related to contingency planning for a possible evacuation of U.S. personnel or civilians from Lebanon, as well as force adjustments in the Middle East. At least 16x C-17s and 13x KC-135s, plus a suspected MC-130J, involved in the movement of equipment & personnel ahead of the acknowledged troop increase for the Middle East.
Illegal Immigration –
“4 RPGs and 8 IEDs along with a large amount of ammo discovered in a scout site in Mexico just across the Arizona border which butts up against the Ajo area of operation within the Tucson Sector,” NewsNation’s border correspondent Ali Bradley wrote on X on Monday afternoon.
Bradley said, “Border Patrol agents are being warned of the “drastic escalation” in weaponry being used on the south side of the border—According to an internal alert obtained through sources.”
“The fighting within the Sinaloa cartel, spilling over the border with multiple instances of armed men showing up to the southern border in the same area fleeing into the US for safety,” she added.
OBSERVATION - Cross over of cartel violence has been growing over the past few years and discoveries like this are of increasing concern. The proximity to the border almost insures that cartels will draw upon such caches for use in the US.
China –
Seeing some reports that China’s economy is facing serious hurt and that its equivalent to the Fed may be kicking on the printing press to pump out more yuan. At the same time drastically dropping interest rates.
Japan –
Russian aircrafts were intercepted by Japanese fighter jets firing warning flares, Tokyo officials reported - escalating fears of violence across the globe.
In an urgent media briefing today, Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi announced that Russian planes trespassed into Japanese airspace near Rebun Island in Hokkaido three times from 1pm to 3pm local time
OBSERVATION - This goes beyond entering an air defense zone, but physically flying over Japanese territory.
Russia -
Kerch Bridge update –
Russian army deploying air defense systems on the towers near Kerch bridge.
NOTE - This follows a similar tactic being used by Russia in places around Moscow where they are placed on the tops of buildings.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 66 of 81 Shahed-type drones overnight
Another high day of personnel and equipment losses for Russia.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
No significant changes in the status
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russia still pressing the attack, but getting very little results.
Outlook —
Ground fighting at mostly a status quo, though Russian continues to press attacks across the Donbas region in general.
Europe / NATO General –
(FO) Romania’s Defense Minister Angel Tîlvăr is calling for a NATO-wide response to Russian drone and missile incursions “in NATO airspace in Poland, Romania, and Latvia.” The Romanian Supreme Council of National Defense also announced it is increasing ammunition acquisition in response to the incursions.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel struck over 1300 targets throughout S Lebanon overnight.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,
The IDF is pre-empting threats rather than waiting to respond to attacks, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said as he held security consultations as the IDF struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and called on civilians in Southern Lebanon to evacuate.
“For those who have not yet understood, I want to clarify Israel’s policy - we do not wait for a threat. We pre-empt it everywhere, in any arena, at any time.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Relatively minor actions, most noticeably an increase in artillery use vs air strikes.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Operation is officially named by Israel as “Northern Arrow”
Israel continues to launch massive waves of air strikes against targets throughout S Lebanon and the Bekka Valley. The IDF struck over 1,300 targets in around 650 sorties. Many huge explosions noted at Hezbollah rocket depots and many ‘civilian’ targets yielding extended secondary explosions from stored munitions.
The Israeli army issues new warnings to Lebanese civilians in villages where Hezbollah has stored munitions in homes, saying that airstrikes against the terror group will continue today. “Anyone who is around Hezbollah members is putting themselves in danger,” - Colonel Avichay Adraee, the Israeli army’s Arabic-language spokesman
Huge numbers of Lebanese are moving north towards Beruit as well as east into Syria.
Hezbollah fired – almost non-stop – rounds of dozens of rockets across the entire North, over 200 rockets throughout Monday, which extended all the way down to Haifa and Nazareth .
Late Monday night, the Israel Air Force (IAF) attempted to assassinate Ali Karaki, Hezbollah’s third in command the last remaining living member of a triumvirate of top military advisers to Hezbollah chief Hassan Sayyed Nasrallah. Reports were mixed about whether he survived the strike, but at the very least, he appeared to be wounded, with estimates that he would not be able to act in a command capacity for some time. Karaki was supposed to replace Ibrahim Aqil, the Hezbollah Radwan special forces chief assassinated by Israel on Friday.
Internal friction is growing in Lebanon with reports that Druze are locally stopping movements of missiles through their areas. In Beruit, moslems are forceably being kept out of Christian areas.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
High numbers of refugees are entering Syria from Lebanon.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Aggressive Israeli security forces operations continue.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to mass forces for a ground invasion. The IAF is continuing battlefield preparations in addition to even more aggressively taking out Hezbollah’s rocket / missile capabilities.
Mark Wallace on “X”
“Hezbollah is currently being run by everyone who last week Hezbollah thought wasn’t good enough to deserve a pager.”
An interesting comment that may be closer to the truth than we can imagine.
Two key observations. The first being the suppression of Hezbollah rockets. Senior Israeli official claim that after yesterday’s attacks on Hezbollah, only half of the precision guided missiles they had on the eve of the war and only a quarter of the rockets up to 40 kilometers that they had on the eve of the war remained.
Their ability to fire a coordinated barrage of hundreds of rockets and missiles at the same time that would overwhelm the air defense systems was severely damaged.
Remember, Hezbollah boasted about having 150,000+ rockets and missiles and could launch salvos of over 1000 at a shot. Monday they could only muster about 200 for the entire day.
OSINT observers come to a similar estimate, based on the number of major ammo cookoffs that people are posting, the IDF claim to have destroyed 50% of Hezbollah’s stocks doesn’t look implausible. Now that more civilians have cleared out, the IDF may increase targeting of rockets and storage dumps placed among residential areas..
The second observation, linked in part to the first is that Israel is driving the fight in a truly offensive manner, rather than its historical, more defensive way. Let me explain. Historically, Hezbollah or Hamas would launch a rocket attack at a location and time of its choosing, then Israel would retaliate. In some ways this was the pace of the war against Hezbollah in the early months after Oct 7. Things began to significantly change when Israel began to take out senior Hezbollah (Hamas and IRGC) leaders. This was far more proactive, but not totally out of the ordinary except that the volume of assassinations grew exponentially. Seems the dam finally broke when Israel launched the large (at that time) strike by 100 aircraft preemptively hitting Hezbollah launchers poised to fire a retaliatory strike for the loss of one of its key leaders. Following that was the pager/walkie talkie hits and now continued, large scale airstrikes. Hezbollah was not ready to be on the receiving end like this. Their war plans were for something similar to the past that would allow them to dictate the tempo of the fight. They no longer have control over that. As Netanyahu made very clear - “we do not wait for a threat. We pre-empt it everywhere, in any arena, at any time.”
Israel’s preemptive policy may well be ringing loud and clear in Tehran as well. Iran has been pretty quiet towards Hezbollah, and may be thinking about the ballistic and cruise missiles Israel can fire at them while their fighters are busy in Lebanon. More analysts are thinking Iran is cutting its losses with Hezbollah and letting them go it alone, with just minimal help from the “Islamic Resistance”.
I see the next phase kicking off soon as most of the Lebanese civilians have fled the border areas, permitting the Israeli ground forces to move in and start clearing out Hezbollah pockets. As Wallace’s observation above notes, on a national level, Hezbollah is poorly positioned to mount a defense against a ground op. At a local level, Hezbollah may do well, but lacking support from higher up, will turn into death traps for them.
The ground offensive could be started within days.
The time to Prep is now, especially with the potential longshoreman’s strike.
Globalism / Great Reset –
George Soros has been leaning on the Democrat-controlled Federal Communications Commission for months in hopes of fast-tracking his group’s acquisition of over 200 radio stations in over 40 markets — including stations that run shows from Glenn Beck, Mark Levin, Erick Erickson, Sean Hannity, and Dana Loesch.
OBSERVATION - Soros, in cooperation with fellow globalists, is moving to control speech in the US via this radio takeover. The AM market talk shows are largely conservative and would be killed off by Soros managed networks.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
Students at the University of Michigan are rallying for Hezbollah right now. Notice the Hamas triangles on their banner.
This movement went from pro-Hamas, to pro-Iran, and now pro-Hezbollah.
OBSERVATION - No real change except for signage. Pro-terrorism is pro-terrorism under any of the names.
Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Sep 2, 2024
Donald Trump has been briefed by US intelligence on threats from Iran to assassinate him, his campaign said.
The Republican presidential candidate was briefed “regarding real and specific threats from Iran to assassinate him in an effort to destabilize and sow chaos in the United States”, the campaign said in a statement.
It did not elaborate on the claims, and it was not immediately clear if the threats it referred to were new or had been previously reported.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0z2394ey2o
***
(FO) In a filing with the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida, the Department of Justice (DOJ) released a letter the agency alleges was written by Trump assassination suspect Ryan Routh that offered $150,000 to anyone who successfully assassinated Trump.
Former Attorney General Bill Barr said there was no justification for releasing the letter at this stage of the investigation. “To somebody who’s unbalanced, who’s dangerous, [they] could see that [letter] as some kind of call-to-arms,” former Assistant U.S. Attorney and CNN legal analyst Elie Honig said.
OBSERVATION - The release of the letter with the $150K offer for successful assassination of Trump is being questioned as potentially being used to further assassination attempts on him.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The fleet oiler assigned to the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group was damaged off the coast Oman in the Arabian Sea on Monday, Navy officials confirmed to USNI News.
USNS Big Horn (T-AO-198) was anchored off the coast of Oman after suffering an underwater collision to the stern of the oiler, the official told USNI News. The Navy now plans to use tugs to move the oiler to a nearby port.
“USNS Big Horn (T-AO-198), a replenishment oiler, sustained damage while operating at sea in the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations overnight on Sept. 23. All crew members are currently safe and U.S. 5th Fleet is assessing the situation,” according to a statement from a Navy official provided to USNI News.
There are no reports of injuries or fuel leaks from Big Horn, two Navy officials told USNI News on Tuesday.
OBSERVATION - This leaves the Lincoln CSG without fuel for the auxiliary warships (Lincoln is nuclear powered) or for its aircraft. This is disastrous right at the peak of a very dangerous situation growing in the ME.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Over the weekend, President Biden had Zelensky flown into the swing state on a U.S. C-17 aircraft so Ukraine’s president could visit an ammunitions plant in Biden’s birthplace of Scranton.
Zelensky’s tour of the plant on Sunday – the same day he trashed Biden’s Republican opponent Donald Trump in an interview published by The New Yorker – drew national media coverage as the two candidates are engaged in a tightly-contested race for president in November’s election.
OBSERVATION - Zelensky is poking his nose into US president politics in a dangerous way. Many see it as election interference by an outside country.
***
Congress is considering drastic steps, including a possible Constitutional Amendment that would allow for the direct appointment of House representatives in the event of mass vacancies.
According to the Constitution, any emerging vacancies in the House must be filled through elections, unlike Senate vacancies which can be filled by appointment. Changes being considered in the proposed constitutional amendment include replace of members quickly and change various lines of succession in a “national crisis.”
OBSERVATION - Continuity of Govt (COG) issues at this stage are interesting. After 9/11, a law was enacted to enable rapid elections if over 100 House seats are vacant—supposedly to keep the government running as smoothly as possible by expediting the process. Some see that these proposed changes can also be used to abruptly remove congress critters in the face of a ‘disaster’ and replaced. Lead by democrats, no doubt there is subterfuge behind the actions.
Illegal Immigration –
Word coming out that more and more small towns in red areas are coming under a flood of imported illegals.
China –
China has said it successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) carrying a dummy warhead into the Pacific Ocean.
The ICMB was launched at 08:44 local time (04:44 GMT) on Wednesday and “fell into expected sea areas”, Beijing’s defense ministry said, adding that the test launch was “routine” and part of its “annual training”.
The type of missile and its flight path remained unclear, but Chinese state media said Beijing had “informed the countries concerned in advance”.
Japan later said that it received “no notice” of the test launch.
China’s nuclear weapon tests usually take place domestically, and it previously test-fired ICBMs west into the Taklamakan Desert in the Xinjiang region.
This is believed to be the first time since 1980 that it launched an ICBM into international waters.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gl843l90zo
OBSERVATION - As noted in the article, this launch was a threat towards Taiwan, Philippines, Japan and their allies as tensions in the Western Pacific continue to increase.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 4 Kh-59/69 missiles and 28 of 32 Shahed-type drones
It appears that Ukraine is preparing to withdraw from Vuhledar and that it is in the final stages of its defense, which has lasted nearly 3 years.
NOTE - Very little left of Vuhledar but rubble.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
No significant changes. Report are that Russia has also largely ceased its counteroffensive efforts.
Kharkiv Front -
Ukrainian forces have fully cleared Vovchansk Machinery plant from Russian troops. Russian forces generally forced out of Vovchansk.
Outlook —
Kinda a lull in the action. Russian movement on Vuhledar the biggest piece of news, a bloody and costly victory that won’t add much to the overall strategic operations as Russia lacks the forces necessary to exploit.
Does seem Russian artillery reports are down somewhat, could be just a factor of non-reporting or beginning to reflect the impact of the hits on major Russian ammo dumps last week.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hezbollah launches medium range ballistic missile at Tel Aviv
- The IDF announced that it had killed Ibrahim Qabisi (Abu Musa), the head of Hezbollah’s missile and rocket force.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
A week after the pagers attack in Lebanon and Syria and Hamas didn’t even launch one rocket or mortar bomb. Gaza has been largely silent.
This has lead to further rumors that Sinwar might be out of commission or even dead.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF maintaining the uptempo air strikes on Hezbollah rocket/missile launch sites as well as ammo storage areas.
Hezbollah said on Wednesday it launched a rocket targeting Mossad headquarters near Tel Aviv, which it says is responsible for assassinating leaders and blowing up pagers and walkie-talkies. The mid-range ballistic missile was intercepted above Tel Aviv area by Israel’s David’s Sling air defense system - designed to intercept ballistic missiles. David’s Sling system, supplements the defense provided by the Iron Dome, Arrow 2 and Arrow 3.
FYI this is the first time ever a missile from Hezbollah has reached Tel Aviv
Shortly after, the Israeli Air Force struck the launcher from which the missile was fired in the area of Nafakhiyeh, located some 12 miles to the east of Tyre in Lebanon.
***
The IDF announced that it had killed Ibrahim Qabisi (Abu Musa), the head of Hezbollah’s missile and rocket force, in a targeted attack in Beirut’s Dahiyeh district on Tuesday afternoon.
According to the IDF spokesperson, Qabisi was accompanied by other key commanders in Hezbollah’s “Missiles and Rockets Force” at the time of the strike. According to Lebanese news sites, at least six people were reported killed and 15 wounded in the attack that killed Qabisi.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-50/
***
Increasing but unconfirmed reports that Druze and Christians setting up checkpoints in their towns/regions to ensure no Hezbollah terrorists try to hide among them.
SURGE IN PRE GROUND ATTACK INDICATORS
- More calls for Lebanese to flee from border areas.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli raids targeted several sites in the city of Tartus, Syria.
Air defenses were activated to try to intercept Israeli missiles in Damascus.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Reuters, citing 3 sources: Iran mediating secret talks to send Russian anti-ship missiles to Houthis in Yemen
Unconfirmed reports that around 40,000 fighters from Iraq, Yemen, and Syria have reportedly arrived in the Golan Heights area, preparing to confront Israel. The 175th Battalion of the 5th Division of the Syrian Army in the border area with Israel in the Daraa region seems to be the focus of the reported assembling of resistance forces.
During the night 2 drones were intercepted above Syria on their way from Iraq to Israeli territory and one drone from Yemen was intercepted on the way from the Red Sea to Israel.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
(Reuters) - Britain on Tuesday mobilized hundreds of soldiers to Cyprus to help its nationals evacuate following a significant escalation between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, urging people to leave immediately.
Sheikh Muhammad Ali Al-Husseini the Shia cleric and the Beirut based head of the Islamic Council in the Arab world and in Lebanon in particular, says: “I say to Nasrallah - your era is over in Lebanon and in the whole world and you should know that there is a turning point in the entire Middle East and you no longer have status and turn and your existence is over and take the initiative and hand South Lebanon over to the Lebanese army”
——— FORECAST ————————-
The ballistic missile attack on Tel Aviv is seen by some as an escalation in the fight. However, put it into perspective - a single ballistic missile flying into the teeth of the Arrow / David’s Sling defenses. More of a desperation shot.
IAF continues to hammer targets throughout Lebanon. This portion of the developing war is keeping Hezbollah on their heels and struggling to mount any kind of sustained counter attack effort. Hezbollah thought they would be in the drivers seat, but have found out. Hezbollah rocket launches for a whole day continue to be in the 100-200 range and have been largely ineffective.
Israel taking out Ibrahim Qabisi, has further hurt Hezbollah’s capabilities to coordinate rocket and missile fire.
The reported buildup of ‘resistance’ forces in Syria may well become a growing concern, however, there are challenges to making such a mob into a combat effective force. First is some means of command and control. Who’s going to lead who. Next is equipment. No reports of any heavy equipment like tanks or APCs - only bodies. No substantial logistic support, unless the Syrian Army is going to do that, but that would expose them to Israel’s wrath as well. Leg infantry going into high intensity combat generally do not have a very long life expectancy. But if the numbers are accurate, it will force Israel to redistribute units to effectively deal with this group.
Iran’s president continues to talk peace and passiveness to the world audience. It seems to be pretty clear that Iran doesn’t want to do anything that could endanger its nuclear program or upset the population any more than it has been. This is putting him at odds with the real power — the mullahs with their IRGC forces. Pezeshkian is walking a very fine line here.
Finally, the drop in Hamas activity in Gaza may well indicate Sinwar has been fatally been cornered. The IAF actions have dropped not only because of the Lebanon action, but by lack of Hamas action. Time will tell.
And if Sinwar is gone, what of the group of hostages he reportedly had around him? Not a good thought.
Israel continues to prep for a ground invasion of S Lebanon. Timing is in their court. I don’t think biden et al will have much say in that aspect either as Washington has been cut mostly out of the pre-operational knowledge of many of the Israeli operations. Could be immediate, but my thoughts look towards sometime between October 2, Rosh Hashana and the anniversary of the Hamas massacre on Oct 7.
Iran –
Iranian president says he does not want war with Israel
“We want to live in peace,” Masoud Pezeshkian told reporters in New York City as the U.N. General Assembly gets underway. “We don’t wish to be the cause of instability in the region.”
OBSERVATION - Pezeshkian getting all kinds of heat from the islamists in Iran for these and other statements.
Turkey –
The United States has reportedly delivered a serious proposal to the Turkish Government, stating that if they transfer operational control over their Russian S-400 missile batteries to U.S. Forces stationed at Incirlik Air Base, certain sanctions may be lifted and they will be reconsidered for the F-35 program.
OBSERVATION - Turkey’s weird relationship and roguish behavior in NATO has caused continued friction. Turkey REALLY wants F35s, mostly to be able to threaten Greece as well as project force better in the region. Greece (and probably other NATO nations) and Israel likely will resist any effort to appease Turkey with F35s, so the friction is likely to continue.
Misc of Note –
I’ve mentioned before the OODA loop assessment method - Observation, Orient, Decide, Act - as a key component of family readiness for disasters.
As we’ve come closer to the election day, the Observation component becomes more critical. We’ve seen the riot threats dissipate into nothing, while disruption from imported illegals and associated criminal gangs have increased. There is a great deal of rumblings under the surface of the swamp’s potential efforts to subvert trump from being sworn in if he is able to get past the democrat cheating efforts. These deep swamp efforts have wide spread violence at their heart, but no clear axis of effort at this stage.
High on my radar is the economy and the concern of a crash. Such could impact food supply network with shortages and renewed high inflation. Associated with that is social unrest that an openly declared recession can bring. My efforts are directed at rest of the OODA loop to mitigate these threats. Massive TEOTWAWKI level events at the national and global level will be mitigated to a degree as well, but pending better intel as to how this is going to go off, one has to deal with the known factors at hand.
One thing is for certain, no matter who wins in Nov, the growing storm will still hit in one form or another.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The United States Department of Justice along with the United Nations is filing an official document in a U.S. federal court arguing that UN employees who took part in the Oct. 7 massacre of Israelis are immune from prosecution.
The U.N. Oversight Investigations Division confirmed that compelling evidence was presented against at least nine UNRWA workers, but no legal proceedings are pending against them. Israel claims many more UNRWA employees were complicit in the massacre.
In the document submitted to the court, the U.N. claims the UNRWA employees who participated in the massacre have immunity: “Since the U.N. has not waived their immunity in this case, its subsidiary organization, UNRWA, continues to enjoy absolute immunity from prosecution, and the lawsuit should be dismissed.”
Attorney General Merrick Garland supported the UN’s claim that these officials have immunity.
OBSERVATION - The globalists protect their minions. Even those who killed on behalf of Hamas terrorists.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo ignited social media on Wednesday after she called to “extinguish” former President Donald Trump “for good” which comes after Trump has survived multiple assassination attempts.
Raimondo made the remarks during an MSNBC interview on “Morning Joe,”
OBSERVATION - All the left’s talk about deescalating violent rhetoric is nothing but bovine excriment. Raimondo is speaking what is on the hearts of the left not only towards trump but any and all on the right as well.
***
More threats by the left
“If former President Donald Trump wins November’s election, he would pose an “existential threat” — at least according to a letter apparently from the National Association of Letter Carriers (NALC), obtained by The Federalist.
“If Donald Trump wins the upcoming election, it could prove an existential threat to our union and our contract,” the letter reads. “Your vote matters: consider how the consequences could affect you, your job, and our union when deciding how to vote.””
***
Placing this here as this is further evidence of a likely insider action to allow Trump to be killed, which could have sent the country into widespread violence. . . . .
The Secret Service was warned of a “credible” threat in the days leading up to the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump at a July 13 campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, but failed to act accordingly, according to a damning bipartisan Senate report released Wednesday.
The Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs released an interim report on the attack that detailed numerous “failures” by the Secret Service to secure the site and to respond to threats.
“The Committee finds that USSS failures in planning, communications, security, and allocation of resources for the July 13, 2024 Butler rally were foreseeable, preventable, and directly related to the events resulting in the assassination attempt that day,” the report said. “The Committee also finds that siloed communications and coordination problems between federal, state, and local law enforcement officials remain unaddressed and were a contributing factor to the failures at the July 13 Butler rally.”
The report said that the Secret Service Lead Advance Agent was made aware of a “credible intelligence” threat to Trump on July 9, but that she still reported that there was “no adverse intelligence” in a security planning document in preparation for the rally. In response to the threat, a Secret Service counter-sniper team was assigned to the rally, but almost no one was told of the threat.
The Lead Advance Agent told the Senators that she was told of the threat by a Secret Service official who said he couldn’t discuss specifics of the threat.
OBSERVATION - The Keystone cops were better than the SS. The gross incompetence displayed here is appalling.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
(FO) An ILA strike at East and Gulf Coast ports is likely on 1 October. ILA reiterated last week that the union is prepared for a strike, and USMX said they have no meetings with the ILA scheduled this week. Acting Labor Secretary Julie Su would have to be invited by both sides to intervene, according to the Biden administration. And the White House has said it will not use the Taft-Hartley Act to ask the courts to block a strike for 80 days.
OBSERVATION - WH reluctance to step in will virtually guaranteed substantial supply chain issues that could significantly harm the economy right when such shocks would make the biggest impacts. biden et al are selling out to the unions, likely to garner additional democrats support for the elections. Damage to the economy may backfire on them though. The longer the strike persists the more significant the disruption, and the longer the economy and supply chains will take to recover.
RELATED
(FO) The U.S. National Feed and Grain Association (NFGA) and 55 other trade groups urged the White House to act immediately to avert disruptions at East and Gulf Coast ports. According to the NFGA, 40% of U.S. agricultural exports move through East and Gulf Coast ports, and ag supply chain impacts will “quickly reverberate” throughout the entire ag industry.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Congress passed a stopgap bill to avert a partial government shutdown beginning next week, even as a large number of Republicans revolted against their leadership for failing to achieve new federal spending cuts.
The stopgap funding bill will maintain the government’s current level of roughly $1.2 trillion in annual discretionary funding through Dec. 20, avoiding the furloughing of thousands of federal workers and shutdown of a wide swath of government services just weeks before the Nov. 5 election.
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Harris said she will back Senate Democrats’ push to remove the Senate legislative filibuster, to pass a law codifying Roe v. Wade with a simple majority.
OBSERVATION - Removal of the filibuster has been a hot/cold issue with democrats, wanting the removal to press their agenda, but defending it when republicans have threatened the same.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Harris’ latest interview on Wednesday with Stephanie Ruhle of MSNBC was another dumpster fire. One word salad response for example -
“Some of the work is gonna be through what we do in terms of giving benefits and assistance to state local governments around transit dollars and looking holistically at the connection between that and housing and looking holistically at the incentives we in the federal government can create for local and state governments to actually engage in planning in holistic manner that includes prioritizing affordable housing for working people.”
She is demonstrating that she can’t even handle scripted interviews from a friendly media type.
Japan –
A Japanese warship sailed through the Taiwan Strait between Taiwan and China for the first time, according to reports in Japanese media.
The JS Sazanami, a naval destroyer, passed through the strait from north to south on Wednesday, accompanied by ships from Australia and New Zealand.
The vessel was on its way to take part in military exercises in the South China Sea, Japanese ministers were quoted as saying.
This would be a significant move by Japan, which is thought to have avoided sailing its ships through the strait in order not to upset China, which claims self-governed Taiwan and the strait.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm28yd04xxno
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia is changing its nuclear doctrine, as Putin held a security council meeting on “nuclear deterrence.” Which, according to Putin, includes expanding the category of states and military alliances subject to nuclear deterrence, adding new military threats that could trigger nuclear deterrence measures, and maintaining the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Belarus.
He added that a confirmed air or space attack on Russia will prompt a nuclear response, and a critical threat to Russian sovereignty with conventional weapons will also justify a nuclear response. Additionally, any aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear state, if supported by a nuclear state, will be treated as a joint attack on Russia.
OBSERVATION - Analysts are noting that this represents another lowering of the nuclear bar for Russia and is designed primarily to put fear into NATO countries and their decision processes in allowing Ukraine to use western weapons systems to strike deep into Russia.
Key point - even ‘aid’ to Ukraine can cross this new red line.
This also comes after the failure of the “Satan - 2” ICBM missile test, the fourth failure in 5 tests.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
According to Forbes, Russia is sending its sailors from the aircraft carrier ‘Admiral Kuznetsov’ to the front due to a shortage of personnel.
Part of the aircraft carrier’s crew, which previously consisted of 1,500 people, was transferred to the ground forces and formed a ‘frigate’ battalion, which is participating in combat operations as part of the 1st Guards Tank Army.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russia continues to throw forces into this front as well as all of the Donbas sector.
Robotyne Axis -.
Outlook —
Fierce fighting across the Donbas region as Russia scrambles to capture as much terrain as possible before the winter sets in. Ukraine is grudgingly giving up terrain, but is inflicting high losses to Russian forces and equipment in the process.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- A claim of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah played out overnight.
- IDF general warns the next phase is a ground war.
- IAF continues to hammer Hezbollah rocket related sites as well as Hezbollah command and control.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,
Overnight a great deal of confusion was thrown into the situation when a statement was released by the US and ‘allies’ stating that a 21 day cease fire was about to be enacted. The joint statement (inclusive of United States, Australia, Canada, European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Qatar ) released by the White House calls for a ceasefire consistent with UNSCR 1701. That resolution mandates Hezbollah be disarmed south of the Litani. However, Hezbollah was not specifically named in the proposal. So Israel would be justified in saying it will agree to a ceasefire when Hezbollah has done just that.
Neither of the two statements referred to Hezbollah, a U.S.-designated terror group, which has launched thousands of rockets at the Jewish state since Oct. 8. Israel has targeted launch sites and missiles tied to Hezbollah and has not declared war on Lebanon.
Hezbollah was specifically left out of this ‘agreement’ but claimed that Lebanese government would coordinate the signing with Hezbollah. This came as a surprise to the Lebanese PM -
Office of the Prime Minister of Lebanon: “We deny the news of the Prime Minister signing the ceasefire proposal after his meeting with Blinken and Hochstein”
Unnamed ‘officials’ in Israel put out the claim that Netanyahu had signed onto the plan. In a statement, that claim was cited as false -
Prime Minister’s Office:
“The news about a ceasefire is incorrect. This is an American-French proposal, to which the Prime Minister did not even respond.”
“The news about the supposed directive to moderate the fighting in the north is also the opposite of the truth. The Prime Minister instructed the IDF to continue the fighting with full force, and according to the plans presented to him.”
The claim from “US officials” was that the cease fire was to take effect in the next few hours (time window now past). Hezbollah ceased rocket fire and other attacks for about 20 hours and has since resumed - allegedly simulating a ‘cease fire’.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Activity levels still continue at fairly low levels.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight, the Israeli army says fighter jets struck over 280 targets across Lebanon, including rocket launchers and military infrastructure, such as weapons depots.
Fighter jets struck 60 terrorist targets belonging to Hezbollah’s intelligence directorate. The strikes destroyed intelligence-gathering tools, command centers, and additional infrastructure used by the enemy to build an intelligence situational assessment.
The Israeli army says it is continuing to strike in Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah’s capabilities.
IDF spokesman:
The Commander of the Northern Command: “We have entered another phase of the campaign, we need to be very strongly prepared for a entry ground maneuver and action”
For the first time since the beginning of Operation Northern Arrows, the Israeli Air Force is attacking Hezbollah terrorist targets in the city of Byblos, north of Beirut.
In accordance with the assessment of the situation in the IDF, it was decided to recruit two reserve brigades for operational missions in the northern sector.
According to the statement of the IDF spokesman, “their recruitment will allow the continuation of the fighting effort against the terrorist organization Hezbollah, the protection of the citizens of the State of Israel and the creation of the conditions for the safe return of the residents of the north to their homes.”
Hezbollah claims that this morning’s Attack on Tel Aviv was carried out using a “Qadr-1 or 110” Medium-Range Ballistic Missile, which is an Improved variant of the “Shahab-3” Ballistic Missile equipped with a with a 700-1,000kg Warhead and produced by Iran. While the Houthis in Yemen were previously known to posses the missile, this is the first time that it has been confirmed Hezbollah is also in possession of it.
Sheikh Muhammad Amro, commander of Hezbollah’s North Lebanon, was eliminated in an airstrike.
More than half a million south Lebanese residents have fled from their homes. Many of them are crossing into Syria.
The Shiite supporters of Hezbollah aren’t welcomed in Sunni, Druze of Christian villages of Lebanon. Syria is their only option.
PRE GROUND ATTACK INDICATORS
- IDF General specifically notes an impending ground assault
- Reserve forces called up.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel army said it attacked several crossing borders between Lebanon and Syria to prevent arms transfers to Hezbollah
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iran is trying to work out a deal with Russia to supply Houthis supersonic anti-ship cruise missiles.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Turkey preparing for possible evacuation of citizens, foreigners from Lebanon, source says
——— FORECAST ————————-
The whole soap opera of a ‘ceasefire’ played out overnight with a degree of incredibility. Let me break this down into some bullet points.
- This so called proposal follows a week of Israel bashing at the UN
- Israel has its boot to Hezbollah’s throat
- Israel on verge of ground operations into Lebanon
- The deliberate non-reference to Hezbollah in this proposal, written in a manner that suggests Israel has declared war on greater Lebanon.
- The “pause” in Hezbollah attacks faking a cease fire.
- The disinformation that was disseminated throughout Israel that Netanyahu was doing a hard 180 on his stated policies and goals.
Folks, IMHO, this was an attempt by the globalist factions to try to throw a wrench into Israel’s efforts to end Hezbollah. The unmitigated gaul of these countries to claim to have worked out a ceasefire that was agreed to by both sides - absent input from both sides - is disgusting.
The only ones who would benefit from a 21 day ceasefire would be Hezbollah - giving them breathing space to regroup while at the same time refusing to disarm from regions south of the Litani River. Israel has fallen to such a ploy over the years. At this time they have shown resistance to fall for Lucy and the football again. Nasarallah’s entire command staff has been eliminated, and only third stringers (those unworthy of pagers - as noted by another commentator) are trying to run the operation.
Also note - Hezbollah must of had some kind of heads up in order to fake a ‘ceasefire’ for about 20 hours - to increase leverage against Israel.
This was but another effort to split the Netanyahu govt up. Note that unnamed sources claimed Netanyahu was supportive of the cease fire, but those were slapped down hard by his office clearly and unmistakably shutting off talk of acceptance of the ‘proposal’.
I expect to see some protests in Israel by the left - common reactions. This may also accelerate the ground operation in the face of US et al subterfuge. Netanyahu and the country has a kind of ‘get ur done’ attitude, and with the stated primary goal of returning Israelis to their homes in the north, such a ‘ceasefire’ proposal would not accomplish that task.
I fully expect that the IAF tsunami of airstrikes on Hezbollah targets will continue and that we can now expect ground operations shortly.
Syria -
An attack targeted the US base in the Conoco gas field in Deir Ezzor Governorate.
Misc of Note –
Hurricane “Helene” is expected to rapidly intensify to a Category 4 major hurricane before making landfall on Florida’s Big Bend coast on Thursday, September 26, 2024. Catastrophic storm surge, potentially reaching 6 m (20 feet) above ground, along with destructive winds and life-threatening flash flooding, pose serious risks to the region. Residents in affected areas are urged to follow evacuation orders and complete preparations immediately.
OBSERVATION - Warnings should be heeded and preparations already laid in. This is not a drill. Of particular note is that the storm is projected to hang a left hand turn and move east along Tennessee instead of the normal path of swinging right and returning to the Atlantic. Could pose additional flooding threats.