I’ll be mostly off line starting friday thru monday. On a fun trip.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
See Terrorism below for associated actions.
Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Sep 2, 2024
Police reportedly found ‘explosives’ in car near former President Donald Trump’s rally site on Long Island ahead of his speech Wednesday evening.
If it is confirmed, it would be the latest shocking security breach and comes just three days after a would-be assassin was arrested at his Palm Beach golf club.
Sources in the Nassau County Police Department allegedly told One America News Network journalist James Lalino that the rally site ‘perimeter was breached and a blue barrel was removed.’
In addition, during the K9 sweep they apparently ‘found an explosive device in one of the vehicles.’
The sources allegedly said the driver ended up running into the woods.
OBSERVATION - The police are disputing the bomb claim/report. But overall, this is an expected progression of the left’s campaign of violence.
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Approximately 20 attendees of Trump’s Tucson, Arizona, rally reported becoming ill with mysterious symptoms such as blurry vision and swelling shortly after the rally concluded.
All those who reported falling ill were seated on the side of the stage where Trump made his entrance before approaching the podium.
One attendee says the doctor informed her that she had suffered a chemical burn.
OBSERVATION - This is a serious development - attacking attendees of a rally within the rally itself. OR WAS THIS INTENDED AS AN ATTACK ON TRUMP. The proximity to where Trump entered the arena may also point to an attempt to affect Trump personally and even going as far as having insider information / support to identify which side he was coming in from as well as hiding a delivery device. NOTE - no device was found as of yet.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced a long-awaited interest rate cut, lowering the benchmark rate by 50 basis points from what was the highest level in 23 years as the central bank eased borrowing costs following progress in the fight against inflation.
The Fed’s first interest rate cut since March 2020 lowers the benchmark federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%.
Interest rates had been at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% since July 2023, the highest level since 2001.
OBSERVATION - The half point drop is a mixed blessing. It indicates that the Fed believes it waited too long to start their ‘soft’ landing and now has to pull hard on the stick. For people in general, a half point will do very little for them as loan interest rates will still be exceptionally high and with their depleted savings and other reserves, they are unlikely to be able to take advantage of the lower rates. Others view this move as the Fed trying to balance inflation against losses of employment and choosing to try to increase employment at the expense of lower inflation. Final results of the rate decrease won’t be fully felt for an number of months - past the election. But initial actions may be evident though politically amplified.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****
Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
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The Teamsters union announced it will not offer an endorsement in the 2024 presidential election, though its members overwhelmingly support former President Donald Trump.
The union said in a release that it received few commitments on top Teamsters issues from Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris.
Nearly 60% of Teamsters members who participated in an electronic survey support Trump compared to 34% for Harris. A survey conducted over the phone found Trump leading 58% to 31%, the union said.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/teamsters-kamala-harris-donald-trump/2024/09/18/id/1180844/
OBSERVATION - Some local/regional level Teamster organizations, primarily in battleground states, expressed support for harris. Failure to nationally endorse a democrat candidate is a major event for the historically liberal Teamsters.
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Lawmakers rejected a Republican government funding plan Wednesday amid divisions within the party, with former president Donald Trump calling for a forced shutdown unless certain demands are met.
With government funding set to expire at the end of September, the bill was voted down in a 220-202 vote, as some House Republicans joined Democrats to oppose it.
The six-month extension proposed Wednesday would have punted the shutdown deadline into March 2025, when the next president would already be in the Oval Office.
The draft also included the SAVE Act, a Trump-backed measure that requires proof of citizenship when registering to vote in federal elections.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/lawmakers/2024/09/18/id/1180879/
OBSERVATION - Chances are increasing that we’ll hit a govt shutdown by the first of next month.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Kamala Harris just unveiled a new accent while speaking to the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Sep 1, 2024
Iranian hackers sought to interest President Joe Biden’s campaign in information stolen from rival Donald Trump’s campaign, sending unsolicited emails to people connected to the Democratic president in an effort to interfere in the 2024 election, the FBI and other federal agencies said Wednesday.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/iran-fbi-election-interference-dni/2024/09/18/id/1180871/
Illegal Immigration –
Over 2.75 million foreign nationals have entered the U.S. without authorization in the current fiscal year, according to recent data released by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).
This figure encompasses encounters and apprehensions across all U.S. borders, both at ports of entry and in areas between these official crossings, totaling 2,756,646 following the publication of August’s figures. The government’s fiscal calendar starts on October 1st and ends on September 30th each year.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range, fair but with scattered light rain.
NOTE - Remnants of Storm Boris will potentially impact portions of Ukraine over the next several days. Forecast is likely for the southern half of the nation to feel excessive rains.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reported on a combined Shahed/missile attack overnight.
Shot down:
0/3 S-300/400 ballistic missiles
1/1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile
42/42 Shahed drones
Toropets arsenal follow-up. Maxar collected imagery shows extensive damage from a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack that caused a series of explosions at an ammunition depot in Toropets, Russia. The attack caused extensive damage to the facility and surrounding forested area which continues to burn. The imagery shows extensive smoke covers much of the area and a closer look at the ammunition storage area indicates that fires continue to burn in and near some bunkers.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
ISW is assessing that Russia’s counter offensive efforts are failing. The Kremlin aimed for a 5-to-1 troop ratio for its counteroffensive in the Kursk region, but this goal might not be met yet. Currently, around 37,000 Russian troops are in the area. The objective is to expel Ukrainian troops from the Kursk region by October 15 and establish a buffer zone along the border with Russia by October 30. Current observations show this not to be happening.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Heorhiyivka village of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Outlook —
Ukraine increasingly successful strikes on major Russia ammo depots is going to stress Russian logistics in a significant way. Currently, Ukraine can hit with their drones, however, many of these sites would be wide openly exposed to ATACMS systems that are nearly impossible to intercept. This could force Russia to disperse and move these facilities further back from the front - increasing an already heavily overwhelmed logistics system.
Russia’s Kursk counteroffensive appears to be grinding to a halt - even with the employment of VDV forces. Basically it appears that Ukraine is winning a maneuvering war.
Action in the Donbas continues with Russia maintaining that to be their primary effort, but is not gaining very much ground very fast - and at a high cost of men and material.
I expect things on the ground to remain much the same. Only wild cards are deep operations involving missiles and drones by both sides.
Europe / NATO General –
European Parliament: We call for lifting restrictions on Ukraine strikes deep inside Russia
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Second wireless attack targeting Hezbollah hand held radios. Hundreds hurt and over a dozen killed.
- Rapid build up of Israeli forces in the N Israel region.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year,
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
An Israeli civilian was arrested last month for allegedly being recruited by Iran to assassinate Israel’s prime minister, defense minister, or the head of the Shin Bet. The Shin Bet and Police say in a joint statement that the suspect was smuggled into Iran twice and received payment to carry out the missions.The suspect was indicted today.
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The IDF’s 98th Division is being deployed to northern Israel amid heightened tensions with Hezbollah, after months of operations in the Gaza Strip under the Southern Command.
The paratroopers and commando division will now join the 36th Division under the Northern Command.
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Israelis across the country received fictitious text messages under the title of “emergency alert” late on Wednesday night, which called on them to leave where they were and find a protected area, Israeli media reported shortly after the incident.
The possibility that the message was sent out by Iranian officials has been undergoing examination, KAN News reported after the messages were widely spread out.
Furthermore, the IDF responded to the fictitious message and clarified that they did not send out the text announcement, KAN added.
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-820776
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continued search and destroy operations. Artillery and air strikes across the whole overnight.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli Army Radio: 10 rockets were fired from southern Lebanon towards Zar’it in the Western Galilee
ROUND TWO OF EXPLODING COMMS DEVICES
This is unfreeking believable. Two days in a row the covert efforts of Mossad slam an already disoriented and confused Hezbollah with another targeted bomb attack. Yesterday, hundreds of ICOM brand ‘walkie-talkie’ radios exploded at about the same time throughout Beirut as well as potentially in Syria! Explosions reported in warehouses belonging to the IRGC militias near the Imam Ali base in Al-Bukamal countryside, eastern Syria.
At Al Hadath: Explosions reported at a Popular Mobilization Forces headquarters in the Al-Ghabat area of Mosul, Iraq, coinciding with explosions of Hezbollah communications devices throughout Lebanon
The Assad regime has instructed all its military and security units to cease using wireless devices and rely solely on landline phones.
Lebanon’s Ministry of Health: At least 14 dead and 450 injured in the explosions today. The Lebanese Minister of Health: The devices that exploded today were larger - the number of casualties is expected to rise.
Numerous fires and other damage being reported as the radios were capable of holding a lot more explosive than the pagers.
These radios are popular for combat comms used by many across the world. Made in Japan, the ICOM corporation says they do not make the models (IC-V82s) identified in the blasts any more. Used radios are abundant on the global market and at a relatively cheap price and there are plenty of sources of batteries for them. A sales executive at the US subsidiary of Icom told The Associated Press news agency that the exploded radio devices in Lebanon appeared to be knockoff products that were not made the company – adding that it was easy to find counterfeit versions online. It took the BBC a matter of seconds to find Icom IC-V82s listed for sale in online marketplaces.
It is believed that these radios were part of an emergency communications system which was supposed to be used during a war with Israel, the sources said. With the destruction of the pager system, the radios came out for use.
An interesting coincidence are reports that suggest the walkie-talkies that exploded were purchased by Hezbollah five months ago, according to a security source speaking to Reuters news agency. This would also be about the same timeframe as the pagers were purchased and distributed.
RUMINT. According to reports in Lebanon: most of Hezbollah’s communication systems are disabled, thousands of operatives are unable to participate in combat.
RUMINT. Apart from pagers and walkie-talkies, other devices such as fingerprint devices, solar power systems and radios are now exploding too
RUMINT. Reports say that Hezbollah purchased all the communication devices from a European shell company covertly owned by Israel which means they also paid Israel for all the devices that exploded!
There are reports now that all recently acquired electronics - computers, radios, watches, etc - are being collected and destroyed across Lebanon.
OBSERVATION - An attack on hand held radios like this is a logical follow-on to the pager attack, but in some ways would be more technologically challenging. The placement of explosives in replacement batteries is relatively easy, but the triggering mechanism is a little more tricky. These ICOM units are made for Hams and are in the 2 meter band. Two meter units here in the US commonly use repeater networks to extend the range. These repeaters use different tones to signal the repeater to ‘repeat’ the broadcast. A tone could have been programmed into the unit’s firmware to trigger the device. This means that the rest of the units would have had their firmware modified. However they managed it, 400 or so of these units going off at the same time is an astounding accomplishment.
SURGE IN PRE ATTACK INDICATORS
- Israeli Army Radio: Transfer of combat units from the Gaza Strip and the West Bank to the border with Lebanon
- Public preparation: Israel Defense Minister Gallant says “we are in a new phase of the war” after the wave of explosions in Lebanon
- Massive transport of military equipment towards staging areas in N Israel.
- Channel 12 reports the Israeli cabinet has authorized PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to take decision on making “defensive and offensive” actions against Hezbollah - assessed to include a possible decision to engage in a full-scale conflict.
- Increase in border area exercises.
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RUMINT Tomorrow from morning until noon, a military exercise will take place in the Haifa city area.
During the exercise, a lively movement of vehicles and many security forces will be felt.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Aggressive Israeli security forces operations continue.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iranian President: Israel bombs hospitals, schools, buildings, kills civilians in Palestine because we are not united
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Jerusalem’s Old City, in addition to Judea and Samaria, must be Judenrein within a year, according to a Palestinian-drafted resolution, which the U.N. General Assembly passed on Wednesday.
The resolution, which passed by a 124-14 margin with 43 abstentions, is meant to give force to a July advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice, which declared Israeli presence to be illegal in any area over the 1949 armistice line.
More than 40 countries sponsored the resolution, which was the first that Palestinians filed after being granted unprecedented privileges, for a non-U.N. member, earlier this year.
The resolution calls on the Israel Defense Forces to withdraw completely from Judea and Samaria, eastern Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip within 12 months, which means evacuating all Jewish communities beyond the armistice line, including Jerusalem’s Old City.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-50/
OBSERVATION - This resolution has no teeth absent a security council affirmation. It does set the stage for global antisemitic actions by the standard global players. This essential pushes for pre-1967 borders, a scenario that is untenable for Israel’s defense.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Yaroslav Trofimov on “X” writes pretty much what everyone is thinking: “Blow up pagers, force the surviving Hezbollah cadres to rely on walkie talkies, and then blow up the much bigger explosive devices inside the walkie talkies. A TV spy series producers would rule out this twist plot as impossible to believe in.”
Does Israel have other cards up their sleeves? The one-two punch has thrown Hezbollah command comms into disarray and has savagely impacted their ability to coordinate a war with Israel. They are reportedly having to use less reliable means to try to coordinate any Israeli attack. But right now, Israel has isolated many Hezbollah units making them susceptible to quickly being taken out because they cannot coordinate with other supporting groups.
Speaking of supporting units - even Iranian backed militias apparently got hit by the exploding hand helds. This indicates that these militias will likely be disposing of these radios and batteries like Hezbollah is - making them short for future operations.
Noting the war indicators above, I’m still holding to the strong possibility of Israel moving on Lebanon by the weekend. The successful comms strikes of the past couple days does not have a long shelf life and as I said before, Israel may not get another shot at a weakened Hezbollah like this in a long time.
What will Iran try to do? I think in part that they are sweating more bullets. A number of years ago, Israel managed to get malware on critical computer systems and destroyed a substantial number of Uranium centrifuges. What similar fun and games does Israel have embedded in Iran? When Israel launches its anticipated assault on Hezbollah, Iran may be forced into some kind of response, but in many ways not on the terms it wanted.
Speed at which Israel is moving units to the border strong suggests action by this weekend. I’ll be trying to follow the action from the wilds of Yellowstone. . . .
Iran –
Iran’s Armed Forces issued a statement warning the US and Israel that the passage of time will not diminish Iran’s resolve to retaliate against the assassination of late Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran
Misc of Note –
Of for the matter of additional craziness, a new sunspot cluster is coming into alignment with the earth. It has already sent off two low level X category flares.
Interesting Godzilla. Thanks. Have an enjoyable trip.
Enjoy your trip.
ISRAEL ALERT
Quickly before hitting the road. Following all day - IAF has increased their attacks by nearly an order of magnitude, launching over 100 airstrikes in the last few hours targeting Hezbollah sites between the border and the Litiani River.
Largest airstrikes since Oct 7th by far - and that includes the preemptive strikes of a few weeks ago.
This is pre-invasion softening of the targets - classical.
Israel ground units will be in Lebanon by the weekend.