I warned - war is on. Hezbollah trying launch rockets. Full reserve call up by Israel
Smerconish on CNN asked today which was most dangerous - enemies from within (I’m assuming he was talking about Trump supporters and folks who fought with flagpoles on Jan 6th) or China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea joining together against the US... something like that. I couldn’t finish watching because the premise was insane.
If Iran pulls the world in - and has nukes - I guess we’ll find out. Of if Israel is baiting them so they can take out the nuke capacity before it happens... that might save the world. We’re on the knife’s edge and idiot journalists are worried about Trump voters.
How fast could this go bad?
I never doubted you.
I do worry for Israel.
Ok back at it again, buckle up.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
Monitoring the UN summit for news.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
Pretty quiet on the CW front. Antifa and affiliated leftists and pro-hamas elements relatively calm.
Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Sep 2, 2024
Reports that there are as many as 5 assassination teams that have illegally crossed the border and are targeting Trump.
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(FO) During a House Homeland Security Committee hearing, Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA) said his sources reported that likely over 2,000 illegal immigrants on the FBI terror watch list have crossed over the southern border. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) released at least 99 illegal immigrants on the watch list into the United States, according to Higgins.
Former FBI Terrorist Screen Center Director Timothy Healy said the surveillance of possible terrorists entering the U.S. is not manageable as numbers have risen from 11 in 2020 to 380 since 2021.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Pentagon: The USS Truman aircraft carrier group will depart for the eastern Mediterranean today.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
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Congressional leaders announced an agreement Sunday on a short-term spending bill that will fund federal agencies for about three months, averting a possible partial government shutdown when the new budget year begins Oct. 1 and pushing final decisions until after the November election.
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Harris is skipping this year’s Al Smith dinner on Oct. 17. Speculations is she is afraid of having to come up with spontaneous replies to trump and others who will be there.
Biden / Harris Watch –
This week’s White House Report Card focuses on the latest evidence that first lady Jill Biden is, and long has been, the power in the West Wing.
On Friday, the White House wasn’t hiding it. At a rare Cabinet meeting, the president handed over the leadership to the first lady, sitting at the head of the table, her prepared notes in front of her.
According to the New York Post, Jill Biden “read from a binder about maternal health initiatives for four-and-a-half minutes after her husband spoke for just two minutes off the top of the meeting.”
Said President Joe Biden in introducing his wife, “It’s all yours, kid.”
Later, she also hosted a Rose Garden event without her husband, who has faded into the background since being pushed out of his reelection campaign by Democratic Party elites who preferred Vice President Kamala Harris in the race.
OBSERVATION - With all heck breaking out across the world, having the unelected wife of the president run the cabinet meetings is an unthinkable abomination.
Illegal Immigration –
See “Terrorism” above
China –
Slumping refining margins amid tepid fuel demand in China have already claimed victims among the refineries in the Shandong province, where two plants operated by chemicals giant Sinochem were declared bankrupt in recent days.
Zhenghe Group Co and Shandong Huaxing Petrochemical Group Co were declared bankrupt after creditors failed to agree on restructuring plans for the refineries, local court statements showed on Tuesday, as carried by Bloomberg.
A third refinery operated by Sinochem in the Shandong province, home to China’s independent refiners, is expected to begin meetings with creditors later this month. This is Shandong Changyi Petrochemical Co, per a separate local court statement cited by Bloomberg.
In August, Chinese refiners were estimated to have processed around 12.6 million bpd of crude oil, down by nearly 10% compared to July and 17.5% lower compared to August last year, ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a Monday note.
The numbers suggest that apparent oil demand fell below 12.5 million bpd, down by more than 15% year-over-year and to its weakest level since August 2022.
OBSERVATION - Decreased oil production and associated lowering of prices for refined product is a symptom of poor economic conditions in general. One the past couple years, I’ve noted that China’s economic engine has struggled to regain its footing following wuhan. When the economy isn’t moving, neither are vehicles (trucks and cars) which reflect economic status. Add to it the continued property woes of Evergreen and other financial sectors and things just aren’t rosy for China.
NOTE - Gasoline prices here have dropped lately because of the slumping economy as well.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia attempted to conduct some nuclear saber rattling through a show of force by conducting a test fire today of the RS-28 Sarmat aka Satan 2 and it ended in complete failure.
The missile detonated in the silo leaving a massive crater and destroying the test site.
Logistics –
The Ukrainian drone attack on ammunition depots in Toropets, Tver Oblast, near the Estonian border, resulted in the detonation of 30,000 tonnes of explosives, which equates to about 750,000 artillery shells. According to EDF Col. Kiviselg, the ammunition had been transported to the depot shortly before the attack. The loss represents two to three months’ worth of Russian ammunition supply.
Since then, two other major ammo dumps have been hit by drones, damage assessment ongoing. One of which is believed to have stored the vast majority of N Korean arms that have been shipped to Russia.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 70s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Slow night, Ukrainian air defense shot down 3 of 4 Shahed drones overnight
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Front is relatively static with reports of Russian and Ukrainian attacks and counter attacks.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russia continues to press the fight in this sector.
Mandatory evacuation of families with children starting in Pokrovsk tomorrow
Outlook —
While I was out, Ukraine nailed three major Russian ammo dumps. The largest just as I departed, Toropets. Loss of that much ammo production is going to hurt.
However, Russia continues to ramp up the use of glide bombs along key sectors of the front. Virtually unshootdownable, they carry massive explosive charges and can be released by Russian fighters bombers generally outside the Ukraine ADA envelope. So with decreased artillery, they seem to be making up for it here.
Tracking other Russian losses over the past week, personnel killed or otherwise removed from combat were at levels 20-30% higher than already high levels. Numbers of tanks and other armored vehicles destroyed increased significantly over the period as well. These reports don’t say which sector these losses occurred in but judging from the focus of Russia’s assault being Pokrovsk axis and general reports of larger, probably battalion sized attacks, this is where they are taking a beating. Winter is coming fast, so to is the determination / desperation by Russia to gain Pokrovsk before they lose good weather and soil conditions.
Ground fighting expected to continue as in past weeks. The ‘deep war’ with missiles, and drones will ebb and flow.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Lebanese requested to flee border areas as well as if adjacent to Hezbollah sites.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Level of supporting airstrikes have dropped dramatically across Gaza as the airpower has shifted towards Lebanon.
Minor ground skirmishes along the Phildelphi corridor
Reports that Israel is investigating whether Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar was killed in IDF strikes in Gaza. There is no clear intelligence to support the claim.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Since this morning, the Israeli Air Force has struck more than 300 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, the Israeli army says.
NOTE - Before the weekend, IAF strikes were normally in the 10 - -20 range, this represents and order of magnitude increase in air strikes.
Estimates that Hezbollah has lost most of its upper echelon command over the past week from Israeli airstrikes and the pager attacks.
Hezbollah continues to launch rocket attacks, but numbers are far fewer than one would expect - in the few hundreds of rocket range per day. Sunday for example, 150 rockets were launched over the course of four barrages. Compare this to the un- degraded Hamas rocket attacks in the first few days starting Oct 7 when over 1000 were fired per day.
Lebanon received 80,000 suspected Israeli call attempts today with message for Lebanese to evacuate their areas, head of Lebanese telecoms operator Ogero @ikreidieh tells Reuters. He says calls came from abroad, are “psychological warfare to make havoc and chaos.”
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari issues a message to Lebanese civilians in border villages, warning them against Hezbollah’s use of their homes to store weaponry.
RUMINT - Hezbollah had plans to launch a preemptive ground assault within the next couple days.
“To all the residents of the villages in Lebanon, in the near future we will strike terror targets in Lebanon. We call on everyone who is near properties or inside homes where Hezbollah is hiding weapons, we call on you to distance yourselves from them immediately. This is for your safety and protection,” he says.
UNIFIL asks its civilian employees and their families to leave for (relatively) safe areas north of the Litani River. Multiple countries calling for their citizens to immediately leave Lebanon.
OLD NEWS - IDF spokesman: About ten Hezbollah commanders were eliminated in addition to Aqil. According to Sky News, Mohammad Raza, deputy commander of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards, was also killed.
SURGE IN PRE GROUND ATTACK INDICATORS
- Hezbollah has raised the red flags as a declaration of war
- Israeli military and govt note that the go has been given for war and that the current ramped up airstrikes are the initial phase.
- Tanks and armor continue to pour into staging areas in N Israel
- Reservists continue to assemble for operations.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
There continues to be a mild build up of Iranian backed militias assembling in Syria.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Aggressive Israeli security forces operations continue.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Over the weekend there were several rocket / drone attacks sourced from Iraq, likely from Iranian backed militias.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel continues to mass forces for a ground invasion. The IAF is continuing battlefield preparations in addition to even more aggressively taking out Hezbollah’s rocket / missile capabilities.
As I’ve noted over the course of the last 11 months, the Gaza fight and Hezbollah’s contribution via rocket launches has given Israel the opportunity to significantly degrade their capability and the past few days have borne that out.
The impact of the Lebanese terror group’s counterattack so far, while much farther and potentially deadlier than its general attacks limited to the Upper Galilee and Golan, has been significantly less than expected by the IDF and the general public, given its pre-war arsenal of 150,000 rockets. So far, peak rocket fire has been about 400 rockets per day.
Hezbollah launch sites and ammo dumps are going to hazardous work sites for the near future. If you think Israeli intel has been good in targeting mobile terror leaders, imagine the volumes of data they have on stationary sites.
Iranian backed militias will continue to fire under the relative protection of Iraq, but the volume of fire will be very low, more of a minimal harassment.
Repercussions from the pager and ICOM explosive attacks have made coordination of Hezbollah’s war effort very difficult - having to resort to much, older methods and those likely already compromised by Israel. Loss of comms, combined with the loss of high level leadership has hurt. Even Iran is having to take a step back and recheck its comms.
I jumped the gun a little on my expectation of ground war to start by the weekend, but two key dates now popup as likely triggers. October 2, Rosh Hashana, the Jewish New Year and Oct 7, the anniversary of the start of the current war, within a couple weeks. That would permit the reserve units to be fully up and running. Israel is fully capable of starting the ground component much, much sooner as suggested by warnings for Lebanese to evacuate now. Clearly Israel has the initiative and can launch the ground offensive at any time of their choosing.
Iranian involvement? Well, the window is closing again with the return of a second US carrier group - USS Truman. Set to depart today, it will likely arrive in the eastern Med in about a week, week and a half. At this stage, Iran seems to be only offering words of encouragement. However, I further expect that the militias in Iraq will be receiving a lot more missiles (covertly) from Iran in an effort to increase pressure on that front.
Iran –
Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) has ordered all members to stop using any type of communication devices after thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by its Hezbollah allies in Lebanon blew up in deadly attacks last week, two senior Iranian security officials told Reuters.
One of the security officials said a large-scale operation is underway by the IRGC to inspect all devices, not just communication equipment. He said most of these devices were either homemade or imported from China and Russia.
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hj9vefaa0
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Iran’s Revolutionary Guards claim they arrested 12 people on charges of cooperating with Israel and planning actions against the country’s security
Syria -
Over the weekend, reports of explosions in the area of the American Al-Shadadi base in northeastern Syria.