Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
ty, mm.
I didn’t know this thread existed.
I’ll put it on the prepper thread and Trump Train
No, they just commit suicide by shooting themselves in the back of the head three times and then ditching the gun by a riverbank a mile away where they tied themselves up and threw themselves in.
Or some such thing.
You’re welcome
LOL you’re right...
Another peaceful evening ruined trying to track the mayhem.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
European Union bans anonymous crypto payments over €3,000 using self-custody wallets.
OBSERVATION - Crypto is a challenger to the globalist programmable digital currency scheme tied to a social credit score. To get there they have to reign in and eventually eliminate crypto.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Apparently DOJ has established a “National Red Flag Center”
According to at least two congressmen - congress did not authorize this. DOJ apparently just decided to do it on their own.
OBSERVATION - The regime is bent on disarming the citizens of this country and continues to press forward with a variety of means to do so. This is another tool being used now at a federal level. This office is reportedly to ‘help’ local govts design and implement Red Flag laws and actions.
Terrorism -
Ramadan ends around April 8th
This warning UPDATED as of March 23, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
NOTE - Be additionally situationally aware over the next few weeks. If the Russian attack was ISIS based, with all the middle eastern moslems that have penetrated into the country over the past few years, similar assaults are more than possible here.
Note today is Palm Sunday and next weekend is Good Friday/Resurrection Sunday. Christian churches should be at a higher level of alert.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
NBC News is taking half measures to try to mitigate damage caused by their hiring of Ronna McDaniel.
McDaniel will no longer appear as a contributor on MSNBC, but will still appear on NBC News and on tomorrow’s “Meet The Press.”
***
The early ‘retirement’ of Rep. Mike Gallagher (RINO-Wis.) is opening up a dangerous pathway for democrats to try to thwart a Trump presidency.
Gallagher, in addition to other recent republican ‘retirements’ have place the control of the House into a one republican vote majority. Political pundits are raising the alarm because there are many other anti-Trump RINOs remaining that would essentially destroy the caucus and the country in turn to keep Trump out. The pathway that is developing is the switch to democrat leadership of the house.
The recent USSC decision stating that only the congress can move on an Article 14 disqualification has the left working to achieve that before the elections. If they are able to regain control of the house, they will force feed a bill to disqualify Trump (with RINO support) thru to the senate and signature by biden. The rumblings to vacate the seat because of Johnson’s caving to democrat budget demands may also play right into their hands, perhaps giving them leverage (with RINO help) to get a bill that way as well. They already have him over a barrel on Ukraine aid - promising to support him against a vacate motion.
This whole action would create a massive constitutional crisis, especially if Trump wins. Art 14 removal would then place the selection of a president at the hands of a lame duck congress, not the people.
Illegal Immigration –
Initial numbers leaking out from the BP indicate that illegal encounters are on track for a new all time high.
China –
See Philippines below.
Phillipines –
Philippine naval vessels were involved in a clash with the Chinese coast guard on Saturday while attempting to resupply troops at a contested outpost in the South China Sea.
A Philippine civilian boat, escorted by two navy ships and two coast guard vessels, was on a monthly supply run to a small number of Filipino marines stationed on the “Sierra Madre” – a warship intentionally run aground on the Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 in order to reinforce The Philippines’ territorial claims in the area.
According to a statement from the Philippine coast guard, one of its ships was “impeded” and “encircled” by a Chinese coast guard vessel and two ships from the Chinese maritime militia.
Philippine authorities said one of its vessels had been damaged by a water canon during the “dangerous maneuvers” undertaken by the Chinese, who it said had showed a “disregard” for the Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREGS).
The statement accused he Chinese ships of “irresponsible and provocative behavior.”
OBSERVATION - So far the violence is limited. However, I expect that before the year is out there may well be lead instead of water flying. Especially if the chaos increases in the US and Europe that China senses is tying the hands of any US response.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
The story around the terror attack is still highly confused and infused with propaganda and disinformation.
Vladimir Putin suggests Ukraine was helping the terrorists who conducted the Moscow Concert Hall attack.
“All the four perpetrators were directly involved who were gunning people down, killing people, were found and apprehended.”
“They were moving towards the border with Ukraine, and we have data that suggests that they were about to be moved towards the territory of Ukraine by those in Ukraine.”
A car with suspected terrorists was detained 16 km from the border with Belarus , not Ukraine - Belarusian news.
Putin and state-affiliated media and bloggers continue to link it to Ukraine. This included the circulation of the van photos with Belarusian license plates, blurred to insinuate Ukrainian origin
Russia is also claiming that one of the terrorists, Rustam Azhiyev, is a Ukrainian citizen and fought in the Armed Forces of Ukraine In 2022. Quickly debunked.
Meanwhile, ISIS posted more proof that they were the ones behind the attack. Al-Amaq, a media outlet linked to ISIS has released several minutes of GoPro videos which was reportedly filmed by the 4 Tajik terrorists during the terrorist attack on the Crocus Concert Hall. In the video you can see several individuals being shot at point-blank range by the terrorists as well as at least 1 of the victims having their throat sSlit all while they continue to shout, “Allahu Akbar” and extremist Islamic quotes regarding Christians.
OBSERVATION - putin seems to be trying desperately to control the narrative to maintain that the attack was supported by Ukraine. Most likely in an effort to rally patriotic support for the war as he looks to significantly increase the military to carry the current offensive into the summer.
Economic Impact –
Russian oil exports finally facing real sanctions squeeze.
Russia’s 2nd-largest customer, India, refused oil from Russia-run tankers, while Russian vessels are being blacklisted, leading to buildup of unsold diesel cargoes, increased shipping costs
“Russia’s average daily oil refining rate fell to the lowest weekly level in ten months after a flurry of Ukrainian drone attacks hit several major facilities”, - Bloomberg
That’s down more than 400,000 barrels a day from the average for the first 13 days of the month...
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-60 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
It was another wild night with the deep war battle being fought by both sides.
Ukraine unleashed a large wave of Storm Shadow cruise missiles against Crimea. The Belbek airfield was hit, causing the loss of 3 Russian Su-27 aircraft damaged, 34 soldiers killed, and 40 soldiers wounded.
Ukrainian Storm Shadow cruise missiles hit and destroyed two 112 meter long large Ropucha-class landing ships in Crimea last night! Both “Azov” and “Yamal” were destroyed. This practically eliminates all the primary amphibious assault capability of the Black Sea Fleet.
The Information and Computing Center of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, and the Operations Base of the 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade in Sevastopol were hit.
Initial reports indicate that Ukraine has hit a large oil depot in Gvardeiskoe, Crimea, as black smoke can be seen from several kilometers away.
Intense Ukrainian strikes on the Russian city of Belgorod for the 11th night in a row..
Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 29 Kh-101/Kh-55 cruise missiles and 25 of 28 Shahed drones.
Russian hit at the same critical infrastructure in Lviv region with 2 Kinzhdal missiles, which it targeted earlier with cruise missiles, rescuers were able to evacuate. Explosions were reported in Kryvyi Rih and Kyiv regions.
One Russian cruise missile flew into Poland this morning - Polish Operational Command. The Polish Air Force observed the missile for 39 seconds. Polish F-16s were scrambled in the event more crossed over.
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact.
Outlook —
Weather is warming up and mud becoming less and less an obstacle, freeing up cross country maneuver options. This also aids logistical support. The tempo of ground operations should be picking up.
The sluggish pace of the Russia offensive has given Ukraine limited breathing space to reinforce defensive lines as it waits for more artillery ammo. Ukraine is also reportedly increased cycling units in / out of the front lines.
What I call the ‘deep war’ has really hit stride this past week, with both sides launching significant attacks and succeeding at hitting critical targets. I expect this to continue for the near future. Note also, the former key player in these missile attacks has been the Black Sea Fleet. They have been out of the picture for several months now as Ukraine has developed a level of sea dominance with its drone attack boats, capable of patrolling and attacking any Russian vessel trying to set up and launch. Just like Ukraine has good intel when Russian strategic bombers are up and enroute, they are also maintaining tracking of Russian naval operations.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Intensive IAF bombing of central Gaza overnight.
The Commander of the Southern Command in assessing the situation at Shifa Hospital:
“We will end this operation only when the last of the terrorists is in our hands - dead or alive”
Approximately 1000 terrrorists were holed up in the Shifa Hospital, nearly 200 of which were killed and over 800 captured.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IAF and artillery strikes on numerous Hezbollah targets near the border.
An Israeli air strike on the city of Baalbek, eastern Lebanon, northern portion of the Bekaa Valley
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Scattered reports IAF hit a target in Syria overnight. No specifics yet.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue operations to arrest terror suspects.
Security forces entered the town of Sa’ir, north of Hebron.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
UK Maritime Trade Operations, a vessel was struck by an unidentified projectile, as a result, a fire broke out, which was extinguished. Vessel and crew are safe, and are continuing to next port of call.
Reports that Houthi’s also hit a Chinese flagged vessel - after announcing safe passage for Russian and Chinese vessels.
——— FORECAST ————————-
A relatively calm period. The strike on Shifa Hospital has taken a big bite out of Hamas operations in N Gaza. It netted a large number of fighters as well as senior leadership.
It still appears that Israel is on its track to enter Rafah. With the operation at the Shifa Hospital winding down, more resources are available for that eventually assault, meaning it could happen very soon.
Still worth note the silence of the Iranian backed militias in eastern Syria and Iraq. Also it seems Houthi efforts are starting to fall short.
There is a lot of crap going on - and you're doing a first rate job capturing it. Thanks Godzilla. You comment on Putin using the ISIS attack to unite his people is predictable... Bush did a similar thing after 9/11 ... That said, the current ISIS thing doesn't make any sense to me... I'll keep reading in the future.
No post today and possibly even tomorrow. Working thru a minor family emergency.
Prayers for your family.
God Bless
Thanks for all you do.
God bless, sir, and prayers sent.
Hang in there godzilla... prayers for all involved.
Take care of your family and yourself, that is the most important item on your to-do list.
Take care!
May your emergency remain minor.
Thanks for your thoughts and prayers. Things have worked out and getting back on an even keel.
Hitting highlights that stood out to me and summarizing to a great extent.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
(Reuters) - Global bank messaging network SWIFT is planning a new platform in the next one to two years to connect the wave of central bank digital currencies now in development to the existing finance system, it has told Reuters.
The move, which would be one of the most significant yet for the nascent CBDC ecosystem given SWIFT’s key role in global banking, is likely to be fine-tuned to when the first major ones are launched.
Around 90% of the world’s central banks are now exploring digital versions of their currencies. Most don’t want to be left behind by bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, but are grappling with technological complexities.
SWIFT’s head of innovation, Nick Kerigan, said its latest trial, which took 6 months and involved a 38-member group of central banks, commercial banks and settlement platforms, had been one of the largest global collaborations on CBDCs and “tokenised” assets to date.
“We are looking at a roadmap to productize (launch as a product) in the next 12-24 months,” Kerigan said in an interview. “It’s moving out of experimental stage towards something that is becoming a reality.”
***
The State of Louisiana just passed a bill by 37-0 to not allow a single rule, regulation, policy, tax or mandate to be enforced by the:-
The WHO
The UN
The WEF
This ruling applies to any agency working on their behalf.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) renewal deadline is fast approaching as conservative lawmakers and some Democrats continue their push for ending warrantless surveillance.
Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, including conservative and progressive legislators, have called for reforming section 702 of FISA ahead of the April 19 deadline.
According to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Section 702 is a “key provision of the FISA Amendments Act of 2008 that permits the government to conduct targeted surveillance of foreign persons located outside the United States, with the compelled assistance of electronic communication service providers, to acquire foreign intelligence information.”
The April 19 extension was tied to the National Defense Authorization Act that passed last year. There were two competing FISA reform proposals being considered in February. The Judiciary Committee version would have required law enforcement to obtain a warrant for surveillance while the other bill from the House Intelligence Committee did not include such a rule.
OBSERVATION - While the WH claims FISA has been the a “cornerstone of U.S. national security,” said National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan in a statement last year, it has been one of the most abused items under the biden administration and the associated deep state (even under Trump - with him unawares). Time to stick a fork in it and possibly replace it with a much more restrictive system to prevent future abuses. But the swamp loves the system so expect a big fight.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 23, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Note next weekend is Good Friday/Resurrection Sunday. Christian churches should be at a higher level of alert.
Economy-
The Port of Baltimore is the biggest handler of US imports and exports of cars and light trucks and it looks to be out of commission indefinitely. The resulting bottleneck could accelerate a shift of goods through West Coast ports.
Retailers like Home Depot, Bob’s Furniture, IKEA, and Amazon are just some of the companies that use the port to import goods. Other top imports include sugar and gypsum.
“This will have an impact for trade all along the East Coast and it will continue until we know how quickly” the port can reopen, said Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of the shipping journal Lloyd’s List.
Vessels were already being diverted to New York and down to Virginia on Tuesday, said Meade. “There will be dozens of diversions in the next week and hundreds in the coming months as long as Baltimore is shut down.”
OBSERVATION - It may take months just to clear the debris from the area to allow ships to enter/exit the port. Multiple years before a replacement bridge can be constructed.
This will place a hitch on some supply chain issues and likely cause prices to increase on some products.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Army is seeking to bring back retired soldiers to fill critical manpower shortages, according to a servicewide directive published this week.
The All Army Activities document describes how Army retirees can find and apply for open positions and aims to maintain a sufficient number of personnel to fill all of the Army’s authorized positions.
The message comes as the service publicly has acknowledged its struggles to balance a shrinking workforce with the demands of sprawling global mission sets as recruitment woes persist for a third year in a row.
“A review of commands’ requests for [the] fill of authorized personnel vacancies, in conjunction with current Army manning guidance, prompted review of how the Army can fill key and critical position vacancies,” the document states, outlining the situation. “The retiree recall program can be an effective tool to fill personnel shortages of authorized regular Army vacancies that are considered key and essential.”
It was unclear whether the Army already had identified manning shortages to be filled or was issuing the message in anticipation of future need. The Army didn’t respond to the Daily Caller News Foundation’s request for comments by deadline.
OBSERVATION - Quite frankly, I don’t see how they expect to get much support from retirees, given the way they were screwed by this administration.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
NBC News has fired Ronna McDaniel after two days.
Illegal Immigration –
Arizona is quickly becoming a hot spot as Texas declines.
Phillipines –
India endorses Philippine’s claims to the South China Sea.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
The story around the terror attack is still highly confused and infused with propaganda and disinformation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is publicly blaming Islamic Terrorism for the Crocus attack (however, rejecting the ISIS claims) and is still trying to link the attack to Ukraine.
The speed at which the Russian law enforcement identified, captured and beat the alleged terrorists has many seeing many false flags - particularly in regards to the attempt to link to Ukraine.
The reputed terrorists are migrants that have been brought into Russia as workers because there are not enough native Russians to do menial tasks. Though Russia has largely kept them out of sight in the regions around Moscow - where the majority of the ethnic Russians live, Russia has been seeing problems similar to those in Europe - crime increase, etc. This has given the ultra-nationalists in Russia rocket fuel to push for mass deportations. This will be another key area of concern and chaos for Russia whose increasing reliance on this group for cheap labor would be hurt with deportations.
The excuse to link the attacks to Ukraine may be the excuse Russia is relying on for the recent missile attacks on Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) headquarters and Ukrainian leadership.
Economic Impact –
Russia has decided to postpone the delivery of two S-400 air defense systems bought by India. India was supposed to receive five S-400 systems India in 2024.
Instead, they will only get 2 by 2026.
These are not the first deliveries of military systems diverted for overseas sales. Tanks and armored vehicles have also been diverted to the Ukraine war.
This has hurt Russia’s bottom line in lost sales.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-60 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Some key items that occurred while I was offline. Russia attacked the Ukrainian capital of Kiev on Monday morning with hypersonic missiles.
According to U.S. and Ukrainian Defense Officials, the ballistic missile attack earlier today by the Russian Armed Forces against the Cities of Kyiv and Odesa utilizing hypersonic and short-range ballistic missiles was attempting to target several facilities used by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and high-ranking members of the Ukrainian Government. Patriot systems were able to bring down some of these missiles, including the hypersonic missiles. Some of the reports are saying that the hypersonic missiles were launched from submarines along the western coast of Crimea.
The first round was a surprise in that it occurred during the day as well as the speed of the missiles - three minutes form Crimea to Kyiv, with air raid sirens giving only a minutes warning
Ukranian Navy claims apart of Yamal and Azov landing ships Intelligence ship Ivan Khurs and large landing ship Kostyantin Olshansky were damaged as result of attack on 24th March
Outlook —
Ukraine has stung Russia hard with its recent successes in attacking Russian oil production/refineries in addition to taking out of action at least 4 major ships of the Black Sea fleet.
Combined with the narrative of Ukraine support of the terror attack, Russia has struck back by going after key government targets with their best missiles. Somewhat successful, the use of the hypersonic Zircon missiles is an outlier, given that this type of missile is anti-ship and not originally designed for land attack.
This wouldn’t be the first time Russia has adapted some of its arsenal for land attack, one example is the use of S300 air defense missiles in ground attack roles.
However, the absence of ships in the Black Sea capable of carrying these missiles raised questions about their launch mechanism. According to the British intelligence agency, the Russians may have utilized a land-based Bastion coastal missile system. Other analysis suggested modified submarines capable of other cruise missiles being used.
These developments warrant more monitoring and analysis. I currently expect to see more of these decapitation attacks in the upcoming weeks.
On the ground, operations have been relatively static with Russia making little to no gains on the ground.
Belarus -
According to Belarusian Hajun, within the framework of the combat readiness inspection of the Belarusian Armed Forces, today Lukashenka will visit the deployment location of the 19th Mechanized Brigade in Ashmiany district, 10 km from the Lithuanian border.
Lukashenko goes to the border near the Suwalki Gap and asks the Belarusian commander there about how he will fight against the Baltic states & conquer a part of Poland in order to create a land bridge between Belarus and Russian Kaliningrad.
OBSERVATION - See Serbia below on a potential parallel. Belarus military has been training hard under Wagner remnants and Lukashenka may be itching to get into a scrap. This has been building up and the islamic terror attack in Russia may have been the last straw in some measures. The attention given to the Suwalki Gap - Polish and Lithuanian territory that isolates Kaliningrad from Belarus. Russia desperately wants to take that ground to enable a land bridge to the Russian colony via Belarus. Should Serbia and Belarus attack their respective opponents - it could take a lot of pressure off Russian and dramatically reduce Ukrainian support. If one adds to it current tensions between the breakaway region of Transnistria and Moldova, even more stress could be induced.
Poland –
Following penetration of Poland by recent Russian missile attacks on Ukraine, Poland, in conjunction with other NATO countries, are developing a policy to shoot down Russian missiles if they enter a restricted zone around the country border - even over Ukraine. Details are reportedly being worked out among themselves and Ukraine.
Europe / NATO General –
France has raised its terror alert level to its highest possible level, “attack emergency”, following attack in Moscow.
***
Big demonstrations have just started in Budapest, Hungary demanding the removal of Viktor Orban from power in this European country. Orban’s support of Russia over Ukraine has placed Hungary at odds with the rest of the EU and NATO. This is causing economic hardships in Hungary as well as friction against the pro-Russian foreign policies.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
In what many consider to be a ‘cryptic’ message, Serbia’s president, Aleksandar Vučić, posted a message on social media about a threat to national interests.
“Difficult days are ahead for Serbia,” he said. “It will be difficult, the most difficult so far.” It will be difficult, most difficult so far. We are fighting. Serbia will win.”
He says more information will be released in the coming days.
Recent movements of Serbian military forces have been noted near the Kosovo border, coupled with Vucic’s rhetoric, suggest a potential alignment with Russian to spark conflict in the Balkans and confront NATO forces with either war or a security crisis. Vucic also recently stated that Serbia would attack Kosovo whenever it felt like it.
OBSERVATION - A close ally of Russia, Serbia and serbs in Kosovo have been pushing various actions that have brought the two close to war over the past couple years. Serbia has been held back to a degree because of the lack of direct Russian support due to Ukraine as well as not wanting to cross swords with NATO forces stationed in the country and that can come to the aid of Kosovo.
The apparent False Flag islamic terror attack in Moscow may have moved the needle into encouraging Serbia to take action, if nothing more than to dilute NATO assets from Ukraine towards other concerns like Kosovo. From the nature of the ‘warning’, action of some sort could be possible within days.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Hama completely rejects any hostage release without a “permanent ceasefire”
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
The Hamas terrorist group told mediators on Monday night that it was sticking to its demands for a “permanent ceasefire,” hours after praising the passing of a U.N. Security Council resolution calling for a temporary halt to fighting in Gaza.
Jerusalem has dismissed the terror group’s demands, which also include an Israeli military withdrawal from the coastal enclave, a return of displaced Gazans and the release of hundreds of terrorists from Israeli prisons, as “delusional.”
Hamas is still holding 134 hostages out of 253 captured during its onslaught of the northwestern Negev on Oct. 7. Some 1,200 people, mostly Israeli civilians, were killed during the attack and thousands more were wounded.
Hamas move comes after the US abstained from vetoing a UN Security Council resolution demanding an immediate ceasefire by Israel.
***
Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in meeting with Iran leader, said Al-Aqsa Flood was a blow to the myth of Israel’s invincibility. He said Gaza war is a global war where US government is main partner of Israeli crimes & is leading the war. He assured Israel won’t achieve its goals
***
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu canceled a scheduled trip to Washington D.C. on Monday following the approval of an anti-Israel United Nations Security Council resolution that demanded a ceasefire in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Intensive IAF bombing of central Gaza overnight.
Netanyahu reportedly has given the final approval for the Rafah operation.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah - “We targeted the Yarden barracks in the occupied Syrian Golan, “the main command headquarters in times of war,” with more than 50 Katyusha rockets”
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
See Syria below on probable Israeli air strike on Iranian linked groups in eastern Syria.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue operations to arrest terror suspects.
Clashes broke out between rioters and security forces in the town of Kafr Qaddum, east of Qalqilya
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Yemeni sources: Experts from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the Houthis transferred long-range missiles from Sanaa to Hodeidah
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordanian anti-riot police beat and arrested dozens of demonstrators who were trying to march towards the Israeli embassy in the capital Amman, witnesses and residents said on Tuesday night, according to the Reuters news agency.
More than 2,000 protesters had gathered late on Tuesday, the third day of demonstrations which have been marred with clashes, after baton wielding police pushed back hundreds of angry crowds seeking to storm the embassy compound in the Rabae district of Amman.
Many demonstrators chanted slogans in support of the Hamas terrorist organization, including, “Oh Hamas…All of Jordan’s people are behind you.”
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-23/
——— FORECAST ————————-
I anticipate the Israeli operation in Rafah to be very imminent now. The biden regime has made its stand and cut some ties to Israel in its non-veto of the UN Security council demand for a ceasefire on Israel’s part. With perishable intelligence collected from the Shifa Hospital raid, time to strike while the iron is hot and before terrorist move to alternate positions.
Things heating up with Hezbollah again, as Israel strikes deep targets in Lebanon, once though to be ‘secure’ for Hezbollah bases. Hezbollah retaliation by large rocket attacks. Both sides hitting hard, but not yet passing the red line into full on war. Israel is biding its time and hitting Hezbollah bit by bit, degrading their capabilities as Hezbollah is reluctant to escalate further. I still expect a late summer/fall war unless Hezbollah launches a preemptive attack.
Syria -
The Israeli Air Force was responsible for airstrikes in eastern Syria, which reportedly killed several Iranian-linked operatives. The strikes in the Deir Ezzor and al-Bukamal area targeted assets belonging to Iran’s unit 4000, the Special Operations Division of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Intelligence Organization, and the special operations unit of the IRGC’s Quds Force in Syria, known as unit 18840, according to Israeli defense sources
Mexico -
A clip from 60 Minutes posted on X summarized President López Obrador’s demands to work with the United States include:
- the U.S. giving $20 billion a year to countries in Latin America and the Caribbean,
- lifting sanctions on Venezuela,
- ending the Cuban embargo,
- and legalizing all “law-abiding Mexicans living in the U.S.”
Obrador blamed the US for the fentanyl crisis, saying most of the fentanyl is created in the US.
When asked what would happen if the U.S. does not comply with these requirements, Lopez Obrador said he will unleash the floodgates of illegal immigration upon the U.S. southern border.
OBSERVATION - This little bug has the moxie to try to blackmail the US - and likely get away with it as there is enough time for the regime to capitulate before the elections and try to spin it as working with Mexico to solve the ‘problem’ that according to the regime doesn’t exist.
Misc of Note –
I’m going to summarize the MV Dovi incident here because in my assessment it was neither a terror attack or unconventional warfare hit on American infrastructure. Basically, an accident can be an accident.
Reading a number of assessments by those in the shipping industry is that the ship lost main power and that emergency power was not very stable. Without main power, the propellers don’t turn. Emergency power does grant some capability for unpowered maneuvering as well as other critical system operations.
The general procedure in a situation like this is to drop anchor to stop the ship. The crew’s ability to do so in a timely manner was hampered by the unstable emergency power. According to one reviewer, it appears that they were able to drop anchors, but the starboard side grabbed first, causing the ship to pivot to the starboard (right) and into the bridge pillar as clearly seen in the video.
Though outrageously fast - the claim of no terror within 12 hr of the accident was likely based on interviews of the captan and bridge crew.
I’m sure there are plenty that don’t share my assessment, but that’s fine. Its an Occam’s Razor scenario.
There's something uniquely insulting about putting intelligent seasoned soldiers under the command of men pretending to be women by having hissy fits periodically.
Our military can't be a social experiment for the benefit of sexual weirdos... and still be able to fight wars. And if Biden thinks it can, then he's going to fail - which might be the plan all along. One more reason for our people to stay out.
Fully agree.
There will be no post tomorrow, as my better half, my oldest grandson and myself will be on a little road trip to go soak in one of the many hot springs here in the Great American Redoubt.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT (3/28/24)
Protesters opposed to the future Atlanta Public Safety Training Center disrupted a construction site early Wednesday morning by locking themselves to a 250-foot crane, activists said, in at least the third such protest action in recent months.
Wednesday morning’s protest, like the prior two instances, targeted the contracting company Brasfield & Gorrie, which is involved in the building of the police and fire training center that opponents call “Cop City.”
OBSERVATION - The “Stop Cop City” efforts are multifaceted. This time instead of vandalizing the equipment, they are doing the old school locking themselves to the equipment ploy. This action has also been violent with last year a protestor shot at police and in return was taken out. The Antifa element behind the protest attempted to raise the incident to Floyd levels, but clear facts in the case took much of the wind out of it. Antifa affiliated elements in other parts of the country are attempting to duplicate the efforts by protesting construction of other police related facilities.
***
Vanderbilt University in Tennessee has suspended over a dozen students belonging to an anti-Zionist group that occupied an administrative building and refused to leave, according to the school’s official newspaper, The Vanderbilt Hustler.
On Tuesday, the group “Divest Coalition” amassed inside Kirkland Hall, where its members clamored for administrators to reverse its cancellation of a referendum that, if passed, would have allowed the Vanderbilt Student Government to boycott companies linked to Israel. According to The Hustler, administrators made the decision based on the measure’s potential to jeopardize the school’s eligibility for being awarded state contracts, which nonprofits and businesses participating in the boycott, divestment, and sanctions (BDS) movement against Israel are, per state law, barred from receiving.
The day saw bitter exchanges of words between the students and campus officials. Video footage of their demonstration shows them verbally abusing a Black officer, whom they accused of betraying his racial identity. “Shame on you!” they shouted at him. Someone else said, “You are Black in America, and you’re not standing with the marginalized people of the world. What does that make you?” Another student told the officer that he should take their side because America is committing a genocide of Black Americans, insinuating that Israel is committing a genocide of Palestinians.
At least 16 students have been suspended from school over the incident, a disciplinary sanction which proscribes being on campus — in residence halls or class — for any reason. Failure to comply with the punishment may result in being trespassed and arrested.
“Student Affairs took a gradual approach to de-escalate the situation,” Vanderbilt University said in a statement shared with The Algemeiner on Wednesday. “After the students refused to leave, staff made them aware their actions violated university policy and that they would be subject to disciplinary action. After several hours, the university began issuing interim suspensions. Students on interim suspension must leave campus immediately and may not return until further notice, pending the Student Affairs review process.”
OBSERVATION - This is actually refreshing - the university took action against these protestors. It remains to be seen if the teeth are still out during the “review process”, but for once the adults were in charge.
***
With the weekend approaching, the threat of violent, pro-hamas related protests is relatively low. There are currently some scheduled in various cities. Greatest threat would be traffic disruptions by the marches or deliberate road blockages.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 23, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Note next weekend is Good Friday/Resurrection Sunday. Christian churches should be at a higher level of alert.
Economy-
Baltimore is the nation’s second-largest coal exporting port after Norfolk, Virginia, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). In 2022, about one-fifth of U.S. coal exports left through Baltimore. Following the bridge collapse, up to 2.5 million tons of coal exports from Baltimore could be blocked for up to six weeks, Ernie Thrasher, CEO at Pennsylvania coal trading firm Xcoal Energy & Resources, told Bloomberg.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
0bama’s sudden entry to the forefront of the biden reelection efforts is being viewed by many as an effort to pull the train wreck back together and salvage the race from what at least now appears to be a massive election of Trump back to the WH. For most on the right, 0bama has been considered the one actually calling the shots and the sudden realization that his “4th” term is in jeopardy has shaken him out of the shrubbery and into action.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
(FO) North American Electricity Reliability Corporation (NERC) CEO Jim Robb said the NERC is “anticipating a fairly active year on the security front” from state-based hackers and physical attacks on power substations.
Deputy National Security Advisor Anne Neuberger requested cybersecurity plans from all states by 20 May at a recent meeting with governors, detailing how states are working to secure water and wastewater infrastructure.
OBSERVATION - This is more fallout from the Chinese hacking efforts associated with Volt Typhoon.
Illegal Immigration –
(FO) Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, and Louisiana are working to pass state laws that copy Texas’ Senate Bill (SB) 4, allowing state authorities to arrest illegal immigrants and punish them with jail time, fines, or deportation after the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) allowed Texas to begin enforcing SB 4.
OBSERVATION - Latest is that the 5th circuit has placed a hold on SB4 again. In a 2-1 ruling against Texas. The USSC will get another shot at it later after the full 5th circuit hears the appeal. This is a growing shot across the bow to the biden regime.
China –
The March 2023 monthly total of ADIZ violations (122). The current total for March 2024 is 132. This is the highest total number of aircraft tracked in 1 month since Oct 2023.
OBSERVATION - China continues the upward trend. Though higher, invasion is not imminent as many other factors must be in place first. However, this does increase the likelihood of a blockade effort of some kind. Timeline for such an action will be definitely linked to the US elections, especially if China perceives biden loses to Trump, or internal US chaos develops from election efforts.
North/South Korea –
South Korea has reportedly detected activity at North Korea’s Sohae Satellite Launching Station that might indicate an imminent launch of a military reconnaissance satellite.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Economic Impact –
Russia: Gazprom lost billions selling gas in 2023 as sales plummeted by 41.6% YoY while expenses largely remained the same.
2022: USD $16.99 billion profit on $63.05 billion in gas revenue.
2023: $3.16 billion loss on $36.79 billion in gas revenue.
OBSERVATION - A large portion of his is likely due to the loss of the gas pipelines to Europe.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 30-60 range with some local highs into the 70s. No significant precipitation in the forecast.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 26 of 28 Shahed drones, Russian army also launched 3 Kh-22 missiles, Kh-31P and S-300 missiles. The Odesa region appears to have been the targeted area.
Over the past few weeks, Russia has been hitting Kharkiv particularly hard.
In return, Ukraine has been hitting Belgorod nearly daily for the past couple weeks.
Action by the “Legion” has died down with little to report. It appears that they are holding Russian territory they recently captured and have not withdrawn.
There have also been numerous, recent arrests of suspected Russian agents collecting target and damage assessment data in Ukraine.
Conditions along the front lines continues to remain relatively static.
Outlook —
Been a fast and furious week with the overnight pause in action. There are rumors that Russia is moving more forces forward in the areas west of Donetsk but they are unconfirmed.
I expect the major action to continue to be the deep strikes being conducted by both sides on key infrastructure and other targets.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
The Committee on Political Affairs & Democracy has adopted the report inviting Kosovo to join the Council of Europe: 31 votes in favor, 4 against, and 1 abstention. The report by former FM Bakoyannis will proceed to a vote before the full Parliamentary Assembly
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 11 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Formal evacuation actions of Rafah have begun.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Wednesday his cancellation of a planned visit to Washington by top aides this week was meant to show Hamas that Israel would not bend to growing international pressure to halt the war in Gaza. “It was a message first and foremost to Hamas: ‘Don’t bet on this pressure, it’s not going to work,’”
***
Following the failure of the latest round of negotiations in Qatar, Israel is not willing to make any further concessions to Hamas and is gearing up for an invasion of Rafah after Eid al-Fitr — the three-day holiday that follows Ramadan and ends around April 12 — or in early May at the latest, according to Egyptian sources who have been in contact with IDF officials, quoted by the pro-Hezbollah Al-Akhbar daily.
The ground op inside the last bastion of Hamas in the Gaza Strip would last between four and eight weeks, the sources say, and would be accompanied by an evacuation of the civilian population sheltering in Rafah, which amounts to about 1.5 million people, toward the center of the Strip along specific routes and at specific times, announced to civilians in each area of Rafah in advance.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Intensive IAF bombing of central Gaza overnight.
Israel’s Channel 12 reports that the military has started operations to evacuate civilians out of Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Multiple Iron Dome interceptions reported over the northern border community of Shlomi, following rocket fire from Lebanon.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces conducted numerous raids overnight at multiple locations across the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
United States Central Command successfully engaged and destroyed four long-range unmanned aerial systems (UAS) launched by Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen. These UAS were aimed at a U.S. warship and engaged in self-defense over the Red Sea.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Will the Israeli ground operation in Rafah be the “red line” for Hezbollah and Iran, and so once the IDF goes in the entire region could explode. It is highly likely that Israel could act at the end of Ramadan - a spit into the face of Hamas et al since the Oct 7 attack hit on a Jewish holiday.
Important events to watch out for.
1 Increased direct targeting of Rafah
2 Reconnaissance in force raids similar to what Israel did in N Gaza
Als watch for increased combat along the Lebanon border. As I noted above, this will essentially be Hamas’ last stand and it may finally compel Hezbollah and Iran to act. Hezbollah should know by now that they are next on the hit parade after Rafah is cleaned up and pressure to strike preemptively grow.
Black Swans -
The National Guard is being deployed along with hazmat teams. Citizens being warned to stock up on food, water and gasoline. Withdraw enough cash for several days. Other warnings include power outages, delays in supply chains and deliveries and increased emergency response times. Implement several forms of communication outside of cellular phones, . . . . on and on.
What the heck is happening? It is the April 8th solar eclipse folks. For some reason this year the hype machine is up and running full speed. As a retired geologist, i really don’t see what the craziness is all about. I’ve experienced two solar eclipses in my life time - 1979 and 2017. In fact, the only significant warning for the 2017 was for people to carry extra fuel to ensure they can get home, or at least make it to the next gas station. (Believe me, the traffic jam between Salem OR and Sacramento CA was wild just in itself).
However, this is 2024, and near apocalyptic fervor is rising the closer one gets to the elections. Many who are feeding this fervor are the same that hyped the nefarious ‘blood moons’ a number of years ago. They are reading in things that are really tinfoil hat zones.
Trying to read signs and portents from a common astronomical event - just because it is happening over the US deflects from the real concerns facing the nation.
If one has never seen a total eclipse, it is a remarkable experience and I had contemplated hopping into the RV for the trip to see the third in my life time. Again, this is 2024 and we are no longer cavemen scared by unexplained phenomena like eclipses. One should already have preps in place for other, more real scenarios. A total eclipse is not one of them.
Glad winter's behind us for the most part - and you're right about a "total eclipse is not one of them". I don't get the hoopla on that one either.
Interestingly, just to note, April 8 is also the last day of Ramadan.
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