Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
Thanks
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Navy has sidelined 17 ships in an effort to address workforce shortages and alleviate the strain on overburdened mariners, according to U.S. Naval Institute (USNI) News.
Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro approved the initiative Oct. 30, hoping it would ease stress on the Navy’s seagoing workforce while bolstering the Military Sealift Command’s (MSC) ability to provide logistical support for global fleet operations, according to a U.S. Navy press release. The shortages have stretched mariners thin, forcing them to shoulder additional responsibilities, the USNI reported.
OBSERVATION - Wars are eventually won due to logistics. This is a serious situation where our forward deployed elements cannot count on receiving supplies in a timely manner.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Judge Merchan Postpones Trump’s Hush Money Sentencing Indefinitely
Initial ruffles from Trumps initial cabinet picks are transitioning into reality for those ‘supportive’ senators with the rubber soon to hit the road.
***
(FO) Democratic lawmakers said they are alarmed that the Trump transition team has not signed memorandums of understanding to coordinate the transition with federal agencies. A Republican official familiar with the Trump transition efforts said the Trump transition team does not “need the hassle” of signing the memos, which would open the transition team up to the General Services Administration “and quasi-public organizations whose sole mission will probably be to derail them.”
Biden / Harris Watch –
Anyone seen a president and/or VP lately?
China –
(FO) The U.S. and Japan plan to deploy U.S. forces with High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) in Japan’s southwestern islands and the Philippines in the event the Chinese attempt to take Taiwan by force, according to anonymous Japanese sources.
Forward Observer assessment - Why It Matters: The Early Warning team has long warned that the Chinese would need to seize the Japanese Nansei and Filipino Batanes islands in order to effectively blockade Taiwan. The U.S., Japan, and Philippines appear to be prepared to make that significantly harder to do without immediately bringing all three powers into China’s “internal” war with Taiwan. The threat of a wider war outside of China’s control is key to preventing China from starting the war over Taiwan.
North/South Korea –
(FO) North Korea is expanding the Ryongsong Machine Complex, a key weapons manufacturing complex in Hamhung that assembles the Hwasong-11-class of solid-fuel ballistic missiles (aka KN-23), according to satellite images and statements from North Korea’s state news agency KCNA.
The KN-23 is designed to evade missile defenses by flying at a lower trajectory than most ballistic missiles. Missile debris indicates that Russia is increasing its use of the KN-23, which accounts for nearly one in three missiles fired so far in 2024.
Ukrainian defense officials claim the missiles can be traced to the Ryongsong Machine Complex and rely heavily on American and European components, 70% of which are American. Weapons-tracing experts have been able to trace some of the components back to Chinese companies. See Russia below.
Russia -
Logistics –
North Korean KN-23/KN-24 ballistic missiles used by Russia contain foreign parts made in 2023. These missiles, supplied by North Korea, include components from China, the US, Japan, the UK, and Switzerland, Ukrainian intelligence reports. Russia reportedly received about 100 of them.
Economic Impact –
Russia’s annual inflation rate came in at 8.5% in October, well above the central bank’s target of 4%. It prompted the bank last month to raise interest rates to 21% — their highest level in over 20 years — and a further hike is expected in December.
High interest rates have shown few signs of dampening price growth so far, with food inflation in particular keenly felt by shoppers. Dairy products, sunflower oil and vegetables (especially potatoes, with prices up 74% since December last year) are among the items seeing ongoing upticks in price, according to weekly data from statistics service Rosstat, as demand outstrips supply.
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/25/russias-inflation-is-so-bad-that-people-are-stealing-butter.html
OBSERVATION - Russia trying to run a war on a pseudo war economy. Wobbly economic conditions beginning to place a chain on the Ukraine war effort.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and scattered snow
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine: Ukrainian defense forces have attacked Russian facilities in Bryansk, Kaluga and Kursk regions of Russia, including oil depot in Kaluga region (setting it on fire). Khalino military airfield in the Kursk Region was reportedly hit by 7 ATACMS missiles and 12 UAVs .
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a Shahed drone attack overnight.
Out of 145 launched, 71 were shot down by regular air defense and another 71 were lost on Ukrainian territory due to suppression by electronic warfare. One more drone flew back to Belarus.
Russia launched a missile attack on Odesa, causing casualties and damage, the Regional Administration confirms. Residential buildings and civilian infrastructure have been damaged.
Russian losses per 25/11/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1610 men
+6 tanks
+27 AFVs
+22 artillery systems
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian military planners have reportedly found flaws in the Ukraine defensive lines south of Pokrovsk and are attempting to develop an operation to exploit the situation.
Summary —
Russia’s MIRV ballistic missile strike seems to have thrown cold water on Ukraine’s use of western long range weapons for the moment. ATACMS targets seem relatively ‘tame’ compared to the first ones, possibly designed not to provoke another Russian MIRV strike. OTOH, there may be greater emphasis on identifying and targeting much more significant targets as well. To be seen
Fighting tempo returned across Donbas with Russia focusing even more on the section of the front south of Pokrovsk. It is this axis that Russia has seen the most success in their ground efforts. Russia has little time to exploit this area as winter is setting in. Worst, it is leading into a lowland region that goes into essentially swamp mode when the wet season comes on. Russia faces the danger of literally being bogged down unless they can push thru it quickly enough.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- More discussion on a Lebanese cease fire agreement.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
A framework agreement to end the Lebanon- Israel war has been achieved. Sources in Lebanon, the United States, and Israel confirm that Israel has given the green light, subject to a final decision by the cabinet, to sign the agreement with Lebanon. U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein informed Lebanese officials of this decision this evening.
The proposed 60-day pause in fighting holds the potential to pave the way for a long-term truce. U.S. Envoy Amos Hochstein, mediating the talks, stated that if Israel did not respond positively in the coming days to the ceasefire proposal, he would withdraw from the mediation efforts.
Israel’s National Security Minister Ben Gvir is against a deal to end the war with Lebanon and demands a “complete victory” on Hezbollah
***
The United Arab Emirates reports the capturing of three suspects in the kidnapping and murder of 28 years old Rabbi Tzvi Kogan in recent days.
The Iranian Embassy in the United Arab Emirates has issued a “Categorical Denial” of the Allegations that they had anything to do with the Murder and Kidnapping of Rabbi Zvi Kogan, a Chabad Israeli-Moldovan living in Abu Dhabi.
More recent info seems to support Iran’s claim, UAE now saying the assassin team may have been working for Hamas or other sub terror element.
NOTE - a very thin line of separation, an Iranian supported terror group.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A very busy day for Hezbollah. Hezbollah launched over 250 rockets and missiles yesterday over the course of 45 attacks that generated a total of 541 rocket alerts. The only day with more alerts was immediately after Nasrallah’s elimination.
IAF in the SW corner of Lebanon have now successfully split that pocket into three smaller pockets and are closing in on remaining Hezbollah forces.
Heavy airstrikes continue to hammer S Beirut and Tyre
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
At the top of the list is the potential ceasefire agreement in Lebanon. The US is putting a lot of pressure on Israel to accept it, but the US proposal doesn’t have Israel’s best interests in mind. In fact, some components are very favorable towards Hezbollah.
Israel is fully aware of the history of such ‘cease fire’ agreements and the islamic practice of using them to regroup and then attack again. The ‘ol Lucy and the football scenario. Israel is not getting any guarantees that Hezbollah will disarm and pull north of the Litani River, nor any greater disarmament and prevention of future rearming. Israel is seeing growing success on the ground in S Lebanon as well as massive destruction of Hezbollah infrastructure and command in S Beirut and Tyre. This success could be endangered with a premature cease fire.
The decline in Hezbollah’s military capabilities is demonstrated in yesterday’s rocket attacks. Some (ignorantly IMHO) point to the attacks as evidence that Israel is failing to effectively take the war to Hezbollah. Lets look at the numbers…….
250 rockets - ONLY 250 rockets out of an initial supply of some 150,000 rockets at the star of the conflict. For ONE day. Daily rockets have been often less than 10% of that 250 for the past many months.
Second - the increase in IDFs ground gains in S Lebanon. Israel isn’t rushing forward like it did in 2006 and getting eaten up by ATGM traps, but being more methodical and taking time to clear strongholds and then blow them up to prevent reoccupation by Hezbollah. The movement on the ground is accelerating because Hezbollah defenses, and numbers of fighters are being breached and depleted.
FINALLY, Hezbollah has not been able to establish an effective command and control network to replace not only their senior leadership, but the degradation of coms to the fighters on the ground in the south. Hezbollah replacement leaders get taken out just about as soon as they are announced to be the successors to those positions.
Gaza Is moving more and more into end game conditions. Hamas resistance is nearly completely reduced to nothing effective.
Iran continues some threats concerning a retaliatory missile strike. They may be rethinking the political equation here in the US and as a result may be thinking that such a strike could be ‘gotten’ away with before Jan 20. A potentially disturbing thought would be an attack over the observance of Hanukkah.
At present, a far more active threat developing are Iranian terror teams striking Israeli and related organizations over the next few months - a potential alternative way of avenging the regime for the Israeli October strikes.
Thanks
In every way possible Trump and his team are saying 'no' to DC crap. Good for Trump - good for his team.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Thanksgiving Nov 28
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
***
Massive travel loads on airlines and other means expected this week starting today. Concentrations of people is one of the big drawing cards for terrorists seeking to get the biggest bang for their efforts. Keep your head on a swivel if you are traveling. Keep emergency exits in mind and in sight should the worst happen.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) as well as the remaining surface ships of Carrier Strike Group 8, passed through the Strait of Gibraltar today heading east into the Mediterranean; expected to replace both the USS Bataan (LHD-5) and USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), who are on their way back to the United States after being deployed in U.S. Central Command’s Area-of-Responsibility and Seventh Fleet since 2023.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Judge Merchan Postpones Trump’s Hush Money Sentencing Indefinitely
***
Special counsel Jack Smith filed motions to drop all federal charges against President-elect Donald Trump regarding his mishandling of classified documents and his effort to overturn his 2020 presidential election in the lead-up to the deadly Jan. 6 attack on the U.S Capitol.
OBSERVATION - The Phase 1 of the lawfare waged against Trump is wrapping up with a whimper by the left/democrats. Only a couple state cases still remain - like from Merchan’s kangaroo court. Phase 2 will see payback time as the curtains are pulled back on the corruption of the judges and lawyers on the left.
Illegal Immigration –
Immigrants living in Springfield, Ohio are leaving out of fear of deportation when President-elect Donald Trump takes office, according to CBS News.
***
Communities of illegals housed in cities like NYC have become a major recruiting ground for central and south american gangs seeking to expand their operations in the US.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and scattered snow
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Russian military has attacked Ukraine with a record number of drones for one night into Tuesday, Kyiv says.
The Ukrainian air force says it shot down dozens of drones in 17 regions of the country.
Dozens more were said to have been stopped in their tracks using electronic countermeasures.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 76 Shahed-type drones overnight. Targets scattered throughout central and western Ukraine.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Increasing gains southwest of Pokrovsk.
Zaporizhzhia Axis -
Increasing rumors of an impending Russian offensive into this sector.
Summary —
Ukraine defense is increasingly being forced to yield terrain in the Pokrovsk region, the primary focus of waining Russian offensive into the Donbas. Gains are coming at a great cost, with Russian losses now approaching 750K. With a weakening economy, removal of more men from work in the private sector is making matters worse, fewer available for manufacturing, farming, etc.
Russia is once again stepping up its Shahed drone attacks into Ukraine. There are reports of more counter strikes by Ukraine using ATACMS, and British/French cruise missiles. Silence on both sides indicate serious OPSEC in place.
Western govts are in meetings regarding putin’s latest nuclear / conventional threats. So far it looks like the west is leaning on calling putin’s bluff and not holding back on use of these long range weapons systems by Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Ceasefire agreement appears to be close at hand.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is planning to bring the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon for the approval of only the Cabinet, and not bring it to for the approval of the entire Israeli government.
It is expected that Netanyahu will call the Cabinet ministers together on Tuesday afternoon, and present them with the agreements achieved.
Israeli Ambassador to the US Michael Herzog on Tuesday morning estimated that an agreement will allow Israel to cancel the limits on American weapons shipments.
“We have understandings with the administration, which anchor our freedom of movement if there are violations on the Lebanese side of the border. We will not allow Hezbollah to strengthen itself on the border.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/399777
Reuters, citing an Israeli government spokesman: The agreement with Lebanon will preserve our freedom to act to eliminate the threat of Hezbollah
***
Some released details of the agreement -
Details of the emerging agreement:
- The IDF will evacuate its forces from Lebanon within 60 days so that the Lebanese army can occupy the territories from which the IDF has evacuated.
- The forces of the Lebanese army will destroy the remaining Hezbollah infrastructures up to the Litani border and in fact the area from southern Lebanon to the Litani river will be under the total control of the Lebanese army (0 Hizbollah lands)
- As part of the follow-up after the implementation of the agreement, a committee of 5 countries was established whose role will be to monitor the phases of the agreement and their full implementation. The additional role of the committee will be to enforce the agreement and prevent violations. If the committee fails to get Hezbollah to enforce fire discipline, Israel will have a free hand to act.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army: Forces from the 91st Division reached the Wadi al-Saluqi and Litani River areas in southern Lebanon. Operations in the area of the Litani River mark the first time in over two decades that IDF soldiers have reached the area.
In the eastern area, IDF is in Khiam combing the area, most Hezbollah terrorist that where here are dead, fled or captured. Significant gains in Burj Al- Muluk as well on the western margin of the border.
***
Israeli security officials estimate that Hezbollah is preparing to carry out large-scale launches towards Israel, starting in the next few hours(before the announcement of a cease-fire)
NOTE - This would not be the first time Hamas/Hezbollah have done such a blitz.
IAF has stepped up airstrikes in S Beirut by a massive amount. Evacuation warnings for over 20 buildings have been announced overnight and that number is expected to grow. Similar increase in strikes in the Tyre region.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian media report that the IDF recently struck 8 bridges in the Qusayr area, southern Homs. These bridges are used to transfer goods (and weapons) from Syria to Lebanon. The attacked bridges are:
Al-Daf
Al-Joubanieh
Al-Houz
Jousieh
Al-Khadour
Matrabah
Al-Housh
Arjoun
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli Ministry of Defense: We have begun working on an engineering plan to build a security barrier on the eastern border with Jordan
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Behind the curtains on the Lebanon cease fire deal. Netanyahu’s statements strongly suggest that biden regime is playing hard ball. In addition of further cessations of arms shipments should Israel reject the plan, the US has threatened to join an UN Security Council resolution demanding the immediate cessation of fighting.
Israel may be hoping to ride out the biden regime’s final assaults on the nation, possibly knowing that Hezbollah will violate the agreement and permit full operations by Israel once again.
A few out takes that I can see.
- 60 days to full implementation and withdrawal by Israel. This deadline places it squarely within the Trump administration. Thus the big sticks biden has used to force this agreement on Israel will be removed.
- Israel retains the right to strike Hezbollah in retaliation for any attacks. History shows that Hezbollah and Hamas will launch attacks when they feel they have been reconstituted enough to continue the fight. If Israel were to be denied this option there would be no potential for an agreement.
- The acceptance of the conditions are not a given by Israel’s govt. Contains far too many loopholes for Hezbollah and the ‘peace keepers’ to weasel around and go back to the bogus 1701 UN resolution that didn’t accomplish anything. Israel cabinet and govt has serious doubts and objections to the plan.
- Iran is urging Hezbollah to accept the plan, suggesting that it recognizes the immense damage the war has cost their proxy force.
Will 60 days be enough for Hezbollah to reconstitute and reorganize their forces. The answer is yes, though not to the levels that would be a deterrent to Israel should the shooting start again. The biggest effort would be to salvage their rocket / missile forces. Second, to reestablish reinforcements and resupply to ground forces in the south. It would be enough to force Israel to refight for terrain already captured by current combat.
The actions behind the scenes with the US forcing Israel to accept this plan may have moved the needle on Iran’s thoughts and plans for a missile strike. There has been increasing rhetoric from Iran once again, after being very quiet following the Trump election win. Remember, a great deal of middle eastern foreign policy is based on the perception of strength vs weakness. Iran may see Israel now as ‘weak’ given how they are being forced into a cease fire by the US - indicating loss of US support against Iran as well. The threat of a missile attack before Jan 20 is increasing again and may grow even further is biden starts large scale pull out of assets deployed to the region over the past couple months as a deterrent.
Looking at the Houthi’s attacks on shipping in the Red Sea region, it was evident months ago that the minimalist interdiction efforts of the US and others were not going to work. A substantial and longer campaign of airstrikes targeting Houthi resources and LEADERSHIP would be required to force them to step back from their attacks. Israeli airstrikes and the B2 attacks of a month ago made some impacts, but the asymmetric nature of the Houthi attacks make continued harassment of shipping possible.
Iran –
Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Force: Israel crossed Iran’s red lines, and it should be aware that Iranian Armed Forces will deliver a regrettable and different response at an appropriate time. This response will be beyond the imagination of the Israeli leaders
OBSERVATION - See Assessment and Future Ops under Israel above.
Syria -
Reports of a rocket attack by Iranian-backed militias, on U.S. forces stationed at al-Shaddadi in Northeastern Syria. Possible damage and casualties are currently unknown, with at least 5 rockets having been fired at the base.
Mexico -
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is signaling that significant policy changes are on the table just days after a post-Election Day congratulatory call to the U.S. president-elect.
Trump reportedly shattered the “cordial” call by bringing up the most pressing issue on U.S.-Mexico relations: the lengthy border between our two countries and the unacceptable state of it.
OBSERVATION - Trump is coming in like a lion and taking no prisoners. Tariffs and other economic sanctions against Mexico have seriously gotten their attention.
Worth repeating...
Thanks
Heads up. I’ll be standing down Thursday and Friday for Thanksgiving and related. Blessed days of giving thanks to all.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
(FO) Tucson, AZ Mayor Regina Romero said she will work with Tucson police chief Chad Kasmer to “focus on protecting and serving Tucsonans” against President-elect Donald Trump’s immigration agenda. A Tucson Police Department spokesman said the Tucson PD will continue current policies against detaining suspects solely for suspicion of immigration violations and prolonging stops to investigate immigration status.
OBSERVATION - Add another to the list of contemplating potential force in preventing ICE from doing their jobs.
An unnerving thought is that these efforts are beginning to track parallel in some ways to the slavery issue of CW1.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Thanksgiving Nov 28
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
***
Maintain your heads on a swivel - holidays pose great potential for terror actions.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Trump’s announcements of tariffs has some US companies scrambling to re-route supplies and products.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 above.
China –
Rumors that a high ranking national command officer is under investigation for corruption.
Russia -
*****
The situation “on the battlefield” suggests that a diplomatic settlement in Ukraine is still a long way off, - Lavrov said
Economic Impact –
US sanctions on Russian banks, including Gazprombank, have led to a sharp drop in the ruble, now over 110 per dollar, the weakest level since March 2022. The new penalties target key channels of foreign-currency inflows, risking further economic strain as Russia faces growing FX shortages.
OBSERVATION - One reason Russia via BRICS is attempting to decouple its global economy from the dollar.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and scattered snow
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine reportedly attacked Belbek airfield in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea. Pro-Kremlin media claims around 40 UAVs, Neptune missiles, and unidentified ballistic missiles were involved. Russian air defenses allegedly downed 25 drones over the Black Sea and Crimea.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 89 launched, 36 were shot down and 48 were suppressed by electronic warfare. Five more flew back to Belarus.
Russian losses per 27/11/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1580 men
+14 tanks
+48 AFVs
+24 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Intense Russian attacks all along the front in this sector, forcing Ukraine to ceed ground.
Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -
Russian forces are pushing southwestward along highway H-32, south of Chasiv Yar.
Summary —
Observers are noting Russian forces are making increasing gains in the Donbas. Some go as far as saying the defenses are collapsing. That doesn’t appear to be the case, but losses are building up and could result in significant logistic nodes for Ukraine’s defense support being stressed or even captured.
Meanwhile - action in Kursk is very limited. The big Russian offensive has not played out. I am thinking that it was a ruse to shift forces back to the Donbas region. So far, no one else is making that assumption or observation, but it rides in the back of my mind at the moment, given the massive amount of Russia action in the Donbas.
Russian gains still coming at a high price ,with monthly losses continuing in the range of at least 45K per month - this up from 30K range earlier this summer.
Western elements still all a tizzy over Russia’s “new” intermediate range missile with MIRVs each containing the potential for sub munitions. IMHO, those who are overstating the capabilities of this unusual warhead configuration are falling into Russia propaganda scare tactics.
Europe / NATO General –
G7 Foreign Ministers issues a statement on “Steadfast Support For Ukraine,” saying Russia’s use of an intermediate range ballistic missile on Nov 21 was ‘further evidence of its reckless and escalatory behavior’
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Ceasefire agreement in Lebanon goes into place overnight.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Blinken is saying the next goal is a cease fire in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Givati fighters stormed a former school in the Jabaliya camp—now a terrorist stronghold. Around 40 terrorists, scrambling like rats tried to flee, were eliminated on the spot. Another 300, holed up inside, surrendered and were taken into Israel custody.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Before the ceasefire at 4 a.m., the Israeli Air Force launched waves of strikes on 330 Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, including a major precision missile site in the Beqaa Valley and a border crossing used for smuggling weapons. The IDF reported eliminating dozens of Hezbollah operatives, including the aerial operations chief, and striking 42 sites in Beirut.
Hezbollah failed to fire any pre-ceasefire rocket barrages.
Israeli Minister of Security issues orders to arrest any Lebanese who enters the town of Kafr Kila in southern Lebanon
Eight vehicles and a motorcycle carrying Hezbollah personnel arrived at the ruins of Kfar Kila near Matula. The IDF force that was on the spot drove them away with warning shots. Other elements of Hezbollah fighters have been observed moving south in other areas of S Lebanon.
Lebanese Prime Minister: We are committed to implementing Security Council Resolution 1701 in all its provisions
Israeli army asks Lebanese not to approach its positions
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli air strikes target Hezbollah militia sites in the Umm Harateen area west of Homs and the Al-Aminah area north of Homs
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces captured a large cache of heavy weapons and explosives smuggled in by Hezbollah elements.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Lebanon ceasefire is underway and already Hezbollah is pushing the envelope. Lebanese military isn’t close to being in place yet to interdict (if they will at all). Lebanese who evacuated cities on the border have streamed back south, with Hezbollah elements blending in and trying to work up close to IDF forces. This WILL result in Hezbollah ambushes. IDF is aggressively warning people away from their positions - even firing live rounds.
This brings up an important point. Hezbollah may believe that Israel will act towards Hezbollah aggressions in a manner done so in the past. Very dangerous assumptions given that Israel hasn’t followed Hezbollah’s “rules” in this fight so far.
Israel’s blitz of airstrikes have reportedly decimated Hezbollah’s drone and cruise missile capabilities by a reported 70%. There are very few buildings left standing in the Hezbollah sector of S Beirut.
An important aspect is that this ceasefire was not linked to Gaza, a breaking of Hezbollah’s promise to Hamas.
Eyes are focusing on Gaza and I fully expect that the US will pull the same heavy arm twisting they did for Lebanon - continuing to threaten to stop all arms shipments and go as far as endorsing an UN security council resolution for a global arms embargo. A hard point for Israel is the release of all remaining hostages. I don’t think that Israel will accept the dribble of a few at a time as has happened in the past. The hostage issue is very key to any agreement.
Both actions have a very short shelf life. Trump has already been outspoken concerning Israel’s right to protect itself, so that any violations by Hezbollah/Hamas in the course of any agreements in the next month and a half are going to come back hard on them as Trump will break the chains biden has placed upon them.
Iran knows it is in the spotlight, especially if Hezbollah remains neutered. With the rapidly changing geopolitical situation I am uncertain if either will launch an attack on each other before Jan 20. The chains the US have placed on Israel’s actions make it less likely it will do anything before unless Iran does something first.
As I noted in the past few days, perceived strength is key to regional politics and actions. Biden’s crackdown on Israel to forced the Lebanon ceasefire is a clear indicator that Israel is now in a weakened state. Iran could gamble on a strike before Jan 20 if they think they can get away with it, thinking that the US will limit any retaliatory strike as well. Not much time before Trump takes office, so such an action would be very risky. But then, the probability of an Israeli strike after Jan 20 starts increasing nearly exponentially.
Syria -
The Syrian opposition takes control of the town of Qabtan al-Jabal, west of Aleppo province, after violent clashes against the Pro-Assad forces, coinciding with air strikes on the center of the town, north of Syria. Violent clashes between the Syrian opposition forces and the Pro-Assad forces forces inside the town of Qabtan al-Jabal, west of Aleppo, north of Syria, in an attempt by the opposition to take control of it
Turkish military forces have started to carry out artillery strikes against the Pro-Assad forces - as of now as a retaliation for the artillery strikes on their base. HTS carried out a large scale artillery barrage on the city Urum in the western Aleppo countryside
OBSERVATION - This is the first offensive actions by anti-Assad forces I’ve seen in years. May have some associated support from Turkey. Interesting events suggesting that decreased Russian support may be weakening Assad in the Aleppo region.
Think of illegals - who work under the table for mush less than minimum wage, whose children are often sold into sex slavery and sweat shops and YOU know these democrats are no different than their Jim Crow brothers... they WANT slavery and SlaveryLite (illegals) to stay put.
Happy Thanksgiving Godzilla...
They’re certainly not working to protect American citizens.
Republicans should hire some pollsters to see how the PEOPLE of these cities feel about their mayors spending their money protecting criminal illegals.
The first wave of illegals being deported are going to be gang members, rapists and other violent criminals.
Are these really the people citizens want their mayors protecting WITH THEIR TAX DOLLARS? Let’s find out - send in the pollsters then ‘leak’ the results to the Washington Post, New York Times and Joe Rogan - see who bothers to report the truth.
A Thanksgiving wish to you and yours.
Hope everyone had a blessed Thanksgiving with copious amounts of turkey, dressing, mashed potatoes and all the other fixings.
We blast thru the holiday with actions brewing in other regions of the world. We are also facing concerns of a lame duck president trying to toss more speed bumps in the way of the People’s agenda that Trump is planning to move forward with.
Buckle up, less than two months to inauguration.
Globalism / Great Reset –
In July 2022, Joe Biden vowed that before he left office he would declare a climate emergency. He made the threat in Somerset, MA, where he told tales of being in his hometown and having to use a cloth to wipe the pollution off his windshield. He repeated concerns and warnings “of scientists!” that it was “Code Red for humanity.”
Biden kept pretty quiet about his threatened climate emergency declaration until this week. And it’s probably because Americans remembered all too clearly what the last “emergency” has wrought: ruin of their liberties, businesses, their children’s schooling, and their finances.
This week — while Biden is on his way out the door, and after he’s aided and abetted two wars, escalated U.S. involvement in Ukraine, and bugged out in shame from Afghanistan — Biden’s special presidential envoy on climate, John Kerry, said it was time to go all in and declare a climate emergency.
His words: “We’re on the brink of needing to declare a climate emergency, which is what we reallly need...to get people to behave.”
OBSERVATION - biden has been taking steps to make the Trump presidency difficult to accomplish their goals. Even as a lame duck presdent, biden is very dangerous. The big questions is will his handlers go for it. Climate change was not on people’s radars during the election, so there is little support for such a draconian EO.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
Law enforcement and authorities acted quickly to ensure safety” of Trump transition team members and appointees after a spate of violent threats to them and their families, including “bomb threats and swatting” Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, a spokeswoman announced.
Also, another alleged would-be assassin from Arizona targeting President-elect Donald Trump was reportedly arrested Wednesday.
“Last night and this morning, several of President Trump’s Cabinet nominees and Administration appointees were targeted in violent, unAmerican threats to their lives and those who live with them,” Karoline Leavitt, spokeswoman of the Trump-Vance Transition and the designated next White House press secretary, wrote in a statement.
OBSERVATION - Inclusion here because such actions are a peripheral symptom of potential CW2 violence. Indicates growing willingness by the left to use violence.
***
Pro-Palestine activists disrupt Thanksgiving Parade in NYC. No other significant action at the parade to note. It was a good thing the police got to the protestors as quickly as they did, the locals there to watch the parade seemed to be ready to take matters into their own hands.
Anti-Israel protests disrupted Black Friday shopping — all over the United States. The protests were documented in several cities across the country — everywhere from Boston and New York City to Chicago and Seattle — where they blocked traffic on the streets and harassed shoppers in local malls.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Black Friday numbers are still being crunched.
US shoppers are out in force for “Black Friday,” but inflation nerves have left them jittery, analysts say, prompting retailers in the world’s biggest economy to come up with ever more deals.
As markets and consumers eye possible turbulence during the transition from President Joe Biden to Donald Trump, there are hopes that the year’s biggest shopping season — stretching from Thanksgiving to Christmas — will be a bonanza.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) said a record 183.4 million people are planning to shop over the weekend, ticking up from 182 million last year and 18.1 million higher than 2019, before the Covid pandemic derailed the global economy.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/inflation-black-friday/2024/11/29/id/1189799/
OBSERVATION - The expansion of ‘black friday’ sales to as much as a week before and now a week after will muddy up the waters a little bit. If the NRF numbers hold, the period may be generally lackluster.
***
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes dropped to the lowest level in nearly two years in October, likely as a rise in mortgage rates drove buyers to the sidelines and hurricanes disrupted activity.
New home sales plunged 17.3% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 610,000 units last month, the lowest level since December 2022, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Tuesday. The sales pace for September was unrevised at a rate of 738,000 units.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
U.S. Air Forces in Europe reported more mysterious small drones flying around a cluster of USAF bases in the United Kingdom and said for the first time that drones had been seen at RAF Fairford, 130 miles away, where four U.S. B-52 bombers are currently deployed as part of Bomber Task Force 25-1.
U.K. officials said that jets had scrambled in response and British troops are deploying to the bases, as well.
USAFE first reported the small drones operating around and over RAF Lakenheath, RAF Mildenhall, and RAF Feltwell on Nov. 25. Varying numbers of drones, in different sizes and configurations, were seen from Nov. 20-24. Who owns and operates the drones and what they are doing remains a mystery.
On Nov. 26, USAFE issued an update, reporting that “small unmanned aerial systems continue to be spotted.” The update included RAF Fairford among the bases experiencing incursions.
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/more-drones-over-usaf-bases-uk-fairford-lakenheath/
OBSERVATION - Drones have increasing been present over a number of US bases across the world and especially the US. With the technology available to non-military drone users, a significant amount of intelligence and be quickly and easily collected.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Judge Merchan Postpones Trump’s Hush Money Sentencing Indefinitely
***
President Trump’s Chief of Staff, Susie Wiles, announced the Trump transition team has refused to sign an MOU with the Government Services Administration (GSA), and will not be using cell phones, computers, offices or “any technology” provided by the GSA. This is a smart move to avoid the Deep State surveillance situation that was faced in the first term. In the first Trump administration, the GSA had wiretaps, office bugs, and gave all the electronic communication information from the Trump transition to the FBI, IC and later Robert Mueller. In essence, the GSA spied on the Trump team, then gave all the data to the operatives who were in place to target them. The Trump team is not making this mistake again.
OBSERVATION - The leftists in congress are raising a hissy fit over this. They wanted the ability to spy on Trump again. As note, Trump won’t fall for this a second time.
****
I’ve seen reports that the Georgia Supreme Court has DISMISSED Fani Willis’ case against President Trump.
OBSERVATION - Now will she face the consequences for her lawfare attack on Trump?
Illegal Immigration –
Local sheriffs expressed support for President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to deport large numbers of illegal migrants from the United States, stating that “people are tired of this.”
Chuck Jenkins, a Republican sheriff in Frederick County, Maryland, and Richard Jones, a Republican sheriff in Butler County, Ohio, told the Wall Street Journal that they support Trump’s deportation plan and are willing to assist the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency and its agents.
OBSERVATION - In contrast to police chiefs lead by leftists in blue metro areas, sheriffs are the people’s selection for police protection in the vase red areas of the nation. Very few would be considered to be ‘blue’ sheriffs. Often with a large territory to police and undersized forces, the inclusion of federal agents to root out the major causes of crime in their counties is a welcome addition.
***
A report in the New York Post indicated that the outgoing administration intends to launch an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) portal app starting in early December in New York City that will allow migrants to bypass in-person check-ins to their local ICE office.
Insiders raised concerns and warned that the move is a “half-baked” plan that will lead more asylum seekers to abscond.
https://thelibertydaily.com/biden-regime-let-migrants-skip-ice-check-ins/
OBSERVATION - Just another component in the left’s plan to make it more difficult for Trump to execute his deportation plans. However, it would be interesting if Trump’s people send out a update with a hidden tracking component wouldn’t it.
North/South Korea –
According to Ukrainian intelligence (HUR), North Korea has transferred to Russia over 100 pieces of equipment of various types, including M-1989 170mm self-propelled artillery, M-1991 240mm multiple rocket launchers, 100 KN-23 missiles, and at least 5 million shells
Russia -
*****
Russia is feeling even more stress from other global actions that are spreading its military very thin. The first is the collapse of Russian supported Assad forces in Syria. Its ground forces have been stripped to the bone in the view that the fight in the northern portions of Syria were stagnant and the rebels had few capabilities. That has been turned on its head and Russia has lost a number of bases to the rebel advance.
A growing area are the growing protests / rioting in Georgia. Again, Russian occupied Georgia has seen its military presence drawn down by the Ukraine war and the Russian backed “dream” party facing significant protests. With no Russian military to back it up, the Russian backed ‘dreamers’ may face a color style revolution.
Global sanctions are hitting the Russian economy, making it difficult sustain the war efforts and some analysts see 2025 as a critical year where Russia could be hitting the wall. That was before things got hot in Syria and Georgia.
putin is trying to keep his focus on Ukraine and defeating / manipulating any peace proposals/plans by the west or Trump. These other areas putin is likely to allow to degenerate because he doesn’t have the capabilities to respond as he did before Ukraine.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Putin continues to rattle the nuclear sword in threats towards NATO and the US.
Logistics –
November 29, 2024: It’s recently become visible, via satellite photos, that the Russian railroads are at a standstill in many parts of the country and thousands of locomotives and rail cars are going out of service because of a shortage of ball bearings. The ball bearing shortage is a problem that’s been building for over a decade and has now arrived. Satellite photos show major Russian cities receiving little or no merchandise by rail. The annual four months of cold and often freezing weather has begun. While oil and natural gas pipelines are still working, performing maintenance on those pipelines requires access to a functioning railroad system. Currently, if there are any pipeline problems, they have to be repaired using truck transportation. This takes longer if the problem is in an area with no roads or river/canal nearby. Some of these areas will take trucks a week to reach. Unlike the extensive road networks in Europe and North America, Russia depends mostly on railroads.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlog/articles/2024112901236.aspx#gsc.tab=0
Russian Personnel Issues –-
See Ukraine below - November looks to set a new record for the number of losses of personnel. 45450
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and scattered snow/rain
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Mykhailo Drapaty was appointed as the new commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
After defending against massive numbers of Shahed and other missiles over the past few days, the sky’s were predominantly quiet.
Russia is seeing the highest daily personnel losses in years. Over the past few days, Russia suffered over 2000 lost on one day alone. Russian losses per 30/11/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff were nearly as high -
+1740 men
+5 tanks
+12 AFVs
+23 artillery pieces
+2 MLRS
In October 2024 Russia suffered the loss of approximately 41890 personnel.
November will be the new record for the number of losses of personnel. 45450 and are approaching 740400 (30Nov2024)
During an Interview today with Sky News, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated for the first time since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, that he is willing to cede Ukrainian territory to Russia in exchange for an “NATO Umbrella” over the remainder of Ukraine. Zelensky further stated that after a ceasefire, they would attempt to regain the Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia via diplomatic channels.
Summary —
Trump is impacting global issues even before becoming president. Case in point the sudden shift in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. putin may have extracted a major concession from Zelensky over territory gained during the war. This would leave Kyiv with the Kursk territory as leverage for any kind of exchange. Under the changing conditions, will Ukraine attempt to finally take out the Kerch Strait bridge and essentially isolate Crimea?
The holidays saw a massive drone / missile attack that was largely blunted by Ukrainian ADA. The targets were primarily power grid related and I’m sure Russia was fishing for some important military targets as well.
Russian losses have jumped another notch over the past few days. This reflects Russia’s determination to capture more ground prior to any ceasefire agreement. It may also reflect Russian assaults staying more road bound and not getting into the mud going cross country. This is particularly important for the vehicles carrying troops into battle. Russia has increasing been using civilian vehicles and even ATVs to move forces to the lines. These vehicles are not equipped to handle the muds of cross country travel and are limited to roads. This of course leads to ambushes at choke points where the Russian forces can be thrown into confusion and the whole attack being turned into a turkey shoot for Ukraine.
Finally, the appointment of Mykhailo Drapaty as the new commander of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine indicates a shift towards a more offensive nature of conflict than the primary defensive one (with the exception of Kursk). IDK if he is comparable to a “Patton”, but he has a history of being more aggressive - and being successful at it.
Europe / NATO General –
GEORGIA - Protests broke out in Georgia after the ruling Georgian Dream Party announced it would suspend EU Accession Talks until 2028. This decision, following controversial Elections, sparked Demonstrations in Tbilisi. The Police used water cannons and tear gas, while some Protesters were beaten. President Salome Zourabichvili condemned the violence, likening it to Russian Repression. The Protests continued, with Demonstrators opposing the Government’s pro-Russian shift and Illegitimacy.
Now into several days of protests, violent clashes broke out in Tbilisi between protesters and security forces as they try to break into the Parliament. Georgian security forces use all means against those advocating for EU integration, firing tear gas and hitting protesters with water cannons.
OBSERVATION - This level of push back is the only language the “dream” party understands following a corrupted election. The challenge that the dream party has is that there are no available Russian forces in occupied regions of Georgia to come to their aid.
This could develop into a ‘color’ revolution against the Russian backed politicians.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Kosovo’s Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, announced tonight that a powerful explosion damaged a Water Station in northern Kosovo, near the Serbian Border. He described the incident as “a Criminal and Terrorist Attack with the aim to destroy our Critical Infrastructure.” Kurti stated, “This is a Terrorist Act by Serbia,” noting that the explosion left many without access to Running Water and Electricity. He also warned that parts of the Country could face Power Outages if the issue is not resolved by morning. Serbian Officials have not yet responded to requests for comment.
OBSERVATION - As if Syria, Georgia and other parts of the world spinning apart, we now have things heating up again between Kosovo and Serbia.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Ceasefire essentially holding
——— GENERAL ——————————-
CENTCOM: Major General Jasper Jeffers, Special Operations Command Central (SOCCENT), arrived in Beirut on Nov. 27 and will serve as a co-chair, alongside Senior Advisor to the President, Amos Hochstein, for the implementation and monitoring mechanism of the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Various strikes on Hamas groupings across Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The IDF announced on Thursday that it was updating its rules of engagement on the Lebanese border to prevent Lebanese civilians and Hezbollah operatives from crossing to the south side of the Litani River. As part of the efforts to maintain its operational achievements, the IDF stressed that any attempt by armed terrorists or terrorists disguised as civilians to approach the border would be met with aggressive actions.
Israel announces the destruction of a mobile missile platform belonging to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Israeli army spokesman Avichay Adraee announced the implementation of an air strike targeting a mobile missile platform belonging to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon
Hezbollah chief Qassem claims “victory” in his first speech after the ceasefire with Israel
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli Air Force fighter jets struck Syrian military infrastructure near border crossings between Syria and Lebanon earlier today, which the IDF says were being “actively” used by Hezbollah to transfer weapons. “This strike was carried out following the identification of the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah from Syria to Lebanon, even after the ceasefire agreement, and constitutes a threat to the State of Israel, in violation of the terms of the cease-fire agreement,” the military says in a statement.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Israel’s leadership is meeting on the current rebel offensive in Syria and to monitor it.
The ceasefire in Lebanon is nominally holding. Israel executing its rights of protection under it and hitting selected Hezbollah personnel and assets of immediate threat to its personnel.
Hezbollah has its hands full in Syria now as it has forces there to support Assad and those forces are being hard pressed in the current fight - unavailable to come back to Lebanon. On the reverse side, Hezbollah in Lebanon has few forces available to be moved to Syria to reinforce its units there. So the threats Hezbollah faces for Israel at the moment are more on the small scale guerrilla warfare level of trying to sneak in close enough to Israeli forces to execute an attack and back off and go to ground.
Israel continues to plan on interdicting arms and supplies coming in from Syria, but the rebel offensive may make it hard for Hezbollah/Iran to execute smuggling in the face of the need for fighters further north. Another reason the Israeli leadership is monitoring the situation. Interdiction of these supply movements on the Syrian side of the border are not covered in the Lebanese peace agreement.
Those the biden regime says it is now focusing on a ceasefire in Gaza, there is little with which to sculpt a plan with. Hamas leadership is scattered and in may instances dead. Qatar is out of the negotiation cycle. Is the US is going to get any significant Israeli support for a plan, there has to be a massive emphasis on releasing all the hostages. Talk of a 40 day ceasefire with the release of 4 hostages just isn’t going to fly. The only way biden can get Israel to budge is to heavy handed threaten it like they did with the fight against Hezbollah. On this Israel has a counterbalance with the 50+ hostages still believed to be held by Hamas.
Iran is dealing with a double melt down - Hezbollah and Syria. This may have taken any missile strike off the short term list. Unconfirmed reports that Iran put the breaks on a missile strike is their perception that Trump is too ‘unpredictable’ and could face even greater retaliation by both Israel and the US.
Iran –
Iran is announcing an expanded uranium concentration operation bringing on line thousands of new centrifuges in several sites. Iran already has more than enough enriched uranium at 60% that they could make the jump to weapons grade 90% in a matter of weeks, capable of producing enough for several bombs.
Syria -
Wednesday when before I signed off for the Thanksgiving holiday, I noted a rebel assault by anti- Assad forces in the northern part of the country. Over the past few days that offensive turned into a sprint to take Aleppo and parts eastward. The area controlled by the rebel forces has increased by over 50% and is still growing fast as Asaad’s forces beat a retreat southward toward Damascus. Along the way the rebels have captured considerable numbers of tanks and armored vehicles, weapons and ammunition.
In the course of the past few days anti Assad rebels in northern Syria, killed a Russian special forces team and a couple of Syrian army generals. Russia has been in the process of evacuating any bases threatened by the advance. Russian air force has been desperately bombing what it can find, but generally hitting civilian centers, lacking any kind of ground controller for better targeting.
Yesterday, Aleppo fell to the rebels with very little resistance. It is the nation’s second largest city with nearly 5 million inhabitants.
Just who are these rebels? They are an alphabet soup of different groups that have set aside their grievances for a common enemy. With a very broad brush they are affiliated in many ways to al-Qaeda and ISIS, assisted by Turkey and Ukraine. In comparison, Assad’s forces are essentially Syrian, Iranian, and Russian forces. It is a classic Sunni-Shia slugfest.
A new player entered the fight, the Syrian National Army (SNA) has launched their own offensive against Assad forces near Al-Bab. SNA are a different group from the Idlib rebels that have entered Aleppo but are also supported by Turkey.
If SNA starts moving south-west toward Aleppo, they could create a cauldron together with the Idlib rebels for the Assad forces that are still in Aleppo and to the north of Aleppo.
Aleppo is one of the oldest cities in the world. There is evidence of settlement in this area as early as the 11th millennium BC.
As of 2024, the city of Aleppo has about five million inhabitants, which make up a fifth of the inhabitants of Syria as a whole.
Aleppo is considered the economic capital of Syria and is also the capital of northern Syria. The only more important city in Syria is the capital Damascus.
OBSERVATION - This offensive is astounding in many ways. First for how quickly the Syrian govt and affiliated forces have crumbled. Second for the speed of action.
Many are already looking at what conditions set up this offensive. They point to several -
- Increasing loss of Russian support. No more Wagner forces for starters and decreased support due to Ukraine
- The loss of Hezbollah support due to the war with Israel.
- Iran unable to provide reinforcements due to the Israeli conflict.
- Turkey’s support of these rebel groups. Some note that Turkey put a knife in Russia’s back by violating an agreement between the two counties after Turkey moved south into Syria.
Some of these rebel groups appear to be pivoting south toward Homs and Damascus. Moving further east won’t be too fruitful as Assad had very little control over those territories and they are principally desert. Also, in the north, they are occupied by the Kurds, whom Turkey would love to see get killed, but are organized enough to fend off the rebels for now. The Assad army and population is due south. It is also an invasion route Turkey is desiring for future actions against Israel.
This brings up potential expansion of the anti-Assad offensives.
If the rebels, control the second most important city in Syria, it says a lot about the government’s grip in the country. It undermines the government. This is a challenge to the dictator. If the rebels were successful there, there is no reason why they should not be successful in other places. The success there can arouse opponents of the regime in other areas of Syria - for example in southern Syria, which borders Israel, where the civil war began in 2011.
This conflict also sets Turkey and Russia / Iran at odds with each other in a more direct way.
Impacts to US and Trump are still unclear. Both sides of the fighting are hostile to Israel, but at the moment they are too busy fighting each other for that to matter. If the fighting moves southward, then Iran’s attempts to smuggle arms and supplies into Lebanon will be challenged. For now, Israel is more of a spectator to the fighting.
Should the rebels continue to achieve more victories, Russia and Iran will lose strategic bases of operations in the region. Russia has always wanted warm water ports that Syria had and Iran sees Syria as another puppet state to maneuver against Israel.
Trump will have evaluate what lines to draw in the fight. Most likely looking to protect US / coalition forces in eastern Syria. Too soon to see if the fighting will involve going after Israel at this point - way too soon for that.
Final point to note - just how long will this rebel coalition continue to operate in unity?
Anti-Israel protests disrupted Black Friday shopping — all over the United States. The protests were documented in several cities across the country — everywhere from Boston and New York City to Chicago and Seattle — where they blocked traffic on the streets and harassed shoppers in local malls.
How NOT to get people on your side.
The *cause* is just an excuse they use to deflect criticism and protect themselves from government interference because our cowardly politicians won't risk being labeled as (fill-in-the-blank-phobes. They are simply throwing an adult sized temper tantrum.
Thanks
The first of December ALREADY? Where has the year gone?
In the past, I’ve tried to summarize some of the key events of the year. This year the task would be too large for the available time I have! I’ll be posting some snippets in key categories so as not to lose everything.
Globalism / Great Reset –
CY2024 - Great concern by the globalists over the inability to stop ‘misinformation’ and to try to develop ways to censor sources in order to promote its ‘truth’.
The election of Trump was one of its major fears as well.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
CY 2024 - Apart from short lived college pro-hamas protests, the level of protesting / rioting were way down, especially facing the election. Many reports of the left having trouble getting turnout and passions raised for larger and more violent actions.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Black Friday numbers are still being crunched.
CY 2024 - Economy crushing high fed rates continued to the last couple of months where the fed did begin to lower them. Great deal of mixed messaging on the strength the economy - especially as an election year. Reality is and continues to be the economy is on shaky legs.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Judge Merchan Postpones Trump’s Hush Money Sentencing Indefinitely
***
Now that the major cabinet positions have been identified, the swamp dwellers in DC are getting very nervous and threatening to resign in mass. Particularly those in DoJ realms and bureaucratic wonks in all other agencies.
Russia -
*****
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warns: Those escalating the situation around Ukraine to the limit will face “deserved punishment.”
Economic Impact –
Russian President Vladimir Putin approved budget plans, raising 2025 military spending to record levels as Moscow seeks to prevail in the war in Ukraine.
Around 32.5% of the budget posted on a government website Sunday has been allocated for national defense, amounting to 13.5 trillion rubles (over $145 billion), up from a reported 28.3% this year.
Lawmakers in both houses of the Russian parliament, the State Duma and Federation Council, had already approved the plans in the past 10 days.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and scattered snow/rain
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Air Force reports on a drone attack overnight. Out of 78 Shahed drones launched, 32 were shot down and 45 were supressed by electronic warfare. One more drone remains in the air.
Russian losses per 01/12/24 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.
+1730 men
+6 tanks
+14 AFVs
+14 artillery systems
Russia continues to launch major attacks all across there Donbas front region. Managing to make gains, in spite of continued high personnel and equipment losses.
Summary —
Russia continues to make gains in the Donbas, suffering continued high losses of personnel and equipment. These losses are anticipated to remain high as Russia continues to press the attack, and worsening soil conditions (Ukraine mud) significantly limits off road maneuvering, making Russian attack columns far more vulnerable to interdiction.
Ukraine seems to be in a pause over using western long range weapon systems. Russia for its part continues to throw large numbers of shahed drones into Ukraine every day.
No substantial reports from Kursk, what I do hear indicates a status quo, with little to no Russian gains.
More rumors of a Russian offensive in the south towards Zaporizhzhia. This would seem possible only if the Russian counter offensive to retake Kursk is a ruse and forces are actually massing in the south, with just enough in Kursk to pin Ukraine in place and mask the offensive plans.
Europe / NATO General –
GEORGIA - EU-protestors and Georgian security forces are clashing for the third night in a row.
Thousands of Pro-EU Protesters gathered outside the Parliament Building in Tbilisi, Georgia, with some storming the building, setting fires, and launching fireworks at Police.
Georgian security forces tried to disperse the crowds away from the Parliament building but could not prevent them from erecting barricades around the building. They are now actively moving around Tblisi University and blocking roads.
The demonstrations are ongoing in opposition to the ruling Georgian Dream Party’s decision to suspend EU Accession Talks until 2028.
OBSERVATION - That the poilce were unable to disperse the crowds overnight suggest that the protestors have the initiative in this uprising. About the only munition the police have yet to use are rubber bullets and perhaps even live bullets. Success of the protestors is also helping to grow support against the ‘dream party’ and sustain the riots.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Kosovo’s Interior Minister Xhelal Svecla announced the arrest of eight individuals after an explosion damaged a canal supplying water to Kosovo’s two main power plants. Police raided 10 locations, seizing a large weapons cache that included military uniforms, rocket launchers, and firearms. The arrested individuals are linked to the Serb group Civilna Zastita (Civil Protection), which Kosovo has designated a terrorist organization. The attack, involving 15-20 kg of explosives, is believed to have been organized and executed by those detained.
OBSERVATION - The quick work by Kosovan police may help to head off another crisis with Serbia.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Ceasefire continues to essentially hold
——— GENERAL ——————————-
World Central Kitchen announces suspension of operations in Gaza after employees killed in Israeli airstrike. What World Central Kitchen fails to say is that the ‘employees’ involved were partakers in the Oct 7 attack on Israel.
***
Hamas released of the American-Israeli citizen Edan Alexander, 20, whom the terror group is holding hostage in Gaza, is “cruel psychological warfare,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated on Saturday night.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
More Hamas cells flushed out in N Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israel struck Hezbollah elements in S Lebanon, mostly those engaging in trying to get rocket launch equipment and sites set up to fire. Israel warnings for Lebanese citizens to remain away from Israeli controlled areas seems to be pretty much working. No reports of the Lebanese army actually attempting to disarm any Hezbollah elements in the south.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Channel 12 Hebrew: The Israeli army is preparing for the possibility of having to carry out air strikes in Syria for fear of strategic weapons falling into the hands of the rebels. Some of these ‘strategic weapons’ are believed to be chemical munitions.
Additional talk of a limited invasion into Syria in order to have a protective belt to prevent the rebels from directing their attacks towards Israel.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to make anti terrorist sweeps of key areas in the West Bank.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Houthis launched a ballistic missile at Israel this morning. It was intercepted, no Injuries reported. Minor damage from intercept debris.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Here’ s the rundown today.
Iran has its hands full now trying to assist Assad’s regime counter the lightening offensive of the Turkish backed rebel forces. This is the third crisis the mullah’s are facing, the other two being the decimation of Hezbollah and the Israeli Damocles sword over their nuclear and oil facilities. Threat of another missile attack towards Israel is declining.
Hezbollah, though claiming ‘victory’ have announced significant causality numbers from the current conflict - and they are pretty bad even though they are understated. Israeli vigilance is for now stopping Hezbollah attempts to get at Israel forces.
So far I’ve not seen any proactive actions by the Lebanese army to disarm and remove Hezbollah from their remaining positions south of the Litiani River. Only photo ops showing columns of vehicles reportedly headed south.
In Gaza, Israel continues to mop up Hamas elements. The recently released hostage video struck a nerve in Israel and being it was a dual citizen American - Israeli a poke at the US as well. Though still high on Israel’s priority list, hostage releases still depend on finding them, as Hamas is still attempting to leverage them to force an Israeli ‘surrender’.
Houthi still trying to be a member of the game, but some OSINT observers are seeing signs of Yemen opposition groups possibly attempting a Syrian style assault on the Houthi junta - seeing Iran unable to provide substantial support as in the past due to hezbollah and syria.
Finally, on an international level, the drum beat of a ‘two state’ solution continues to be sounded. Very little pressure on Hamas to release hostages.
Iran –
Iran’s Foreign Minister: “I am heading to Damascus today to deliver Iran’s message to the Syrian government. We stand firmly with Syria and see no distinction between Israel and Takfiri terrorists. Following the Israeli regime’s failures, the enemy is now attempting to destabilize the region using these very terrorists.”
Iraq -
Iraq announced the closure of the border between Iraq and Syria.
Syria -
The situation on the ground in Syria is chaotic and changing minute by minute. So the postings here may already be out of date as well as uncertain.
Continued rumors of a coup attempt in Damascus with reports of gunshots heard at presidential palace. Syria’s president Bashar Assad is in Moscow right now. Coup leader reported to be led by Hussam Luka, an intelligence officer in the Assad Regime.
In the north, Aleppo International Airport, the one used by Hezbollah and the IRGC to smuggle weapons - in now in the hands of the rebels.
Syrian Kurds are throwing their hands into the mess, moving westward to confront Turkish supported rebels. The Kurdish-led SDF forces have managed to form a corridor (in yellow) overnight that stretches all the way from the Euphrates river to Aleppo.
They are now pouring thousands of soldiers toward Aleppo ahead of battles against the Turkish-backed Idlib and SNA rebels.
The main rebel force has pushed southward to the city of Hama, just north of Homs. Syrian rebels are reportedly on the move to Homs from Hama. Rebels did reportedly capture most of Hama in the process.
Tanks, BMPs, and other Military Equipment of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its Allies continue to gather tonight in and around the City of Hama in after rebel forces who had captured the City earlier today, decided to withdraw towards the North, where they are now amassing for an assault and large battle which will likely take place soon within the City of Hama.
In eastern Syria, according to opposition channels, armored vehicles and fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are massing in the Raqqa Governorate and near the City of Deir ez-Zor to the east; with some believing that they are preparing to launch an offensive against Pro-Assad Regime and Iranian-Backed Forces along the Euphrates River. U.S-Backed Coalition Forces may have engaged Iranian sites with artillery fire. The SDF is already claiming to have captured the town of Khasham.
In southern Syria, pro rebels protests have erupted in Daraa, southwestern Syria, with gunfire reported. Warned about the potential for this to be a new front against Syrian forces yesterday.
Reports are coming in that Syria will officially request military assistance from Iran due to “terrorist attacks.”
The commander of the Russian forces in Syria, Lieutenant General Sergey Kisel, was reportedly removed from his post.
OBSERVATION - If rebels capture Homs, they will have cut off the Russian land supply from the Russian naval bases in the Tartus area. This would put a lot of additional pressure on the Assad alliance.
Misc of Note –
Seems like chaos across the world is ramping further up as we enter December. This reminds me of the year that the Soviet Union collapsed. Starting with Poland, and spreading through other countries of the eastern bloc, the fall of the Berlin wall and ending with the capture and exception of Caeucescu in Romania.
This year, we saw the war in Ukraine sway back and forth and now to the point of even a potential use of nukes by Russia becoming a greater reality.
Israel was locked in combat with Hamas and Hezbollah when they did what was thought to be unthinkable - decimated Hamas leadership and forces in Gaza. Decimated Hezbollah leadership and forces in Lebanon. Then put Iran on notice with their surgical strike opening their strategic nuclear and oil programs wide open to follow-on attacks.
The US presidential election action this year followed similar intensity. Biden being pushed out of the campaign and ‘anointing’ harris; the assassination attempts and media blitz by the democrats and finally an astounding win at the polls.
2025 is likely to continue the trend. I personally will be assessing the extent of the trends over the course of this month.
Thank you very much.
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