Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Thanksgiving Nov 28
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
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Massive travel loads on airlines and other means expected this week starting today. Concentrations of people is one of the big drawing cards for terrorists seeking to get the biggest bang for their efforts. Keep your head on a swivel if you are traveling. Keep emergency exits in mind and in sight should the worst happen.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) as well as the remaining surface ships of Carrier Strike Group 8, passed through the Strait of Gibraltar today heading east into the Mediterranean; expected to replace both the USS Bataan (LHD-5) and USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), who are on their way back to the United States after being deployed in U.S. Central Command’s Area-of-Responsibility and Seventh Fleet since 2023.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Judge Merchan Postpones Trump’s Hush Money Sentencing Indefinitely
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Special counsel Jack Smith filed motions to drop all federal charges against President-elect Donald Trump regarding his mishandling of classified documents and his effort to overturn his 2020 presidential election in the lead-up to the deadly Jan. 6 attack on the U.S Capitol.
OBSERVATION - The Phase 1 of the lawfare waged against Trump is wrapping up with a whimper by the left/democrats. Only a couple state cases still remain - like from Merchan’s kangaroo court. Phase 2 will see payback time as the curtains are pulled back on the corruption of the judges and lawyers on the left.
Illegal Immigration –
Immigrants living in Springfield, Ohio are leaving out of fear of deportation when President-elect Donald Trump takes office, according to CBS News.
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Communities of illegals housed in cities like NYC have become a major recruiting ground for central and south american gangs seeking to expand their operations in the US.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and scattered snow
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Russian military has attacked Ukraine with a record number of drones for one night into Tuesday, Kyiv says.
The Ukrainian air force says it shot down dozens of drones in 17 regions of the country.
Dozens more were said to have been stopped in their tracks using electronic countermeasures.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 76 Shahed-type drones overnight. Targets scattered throughout central and western Ukraine.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Increasing gains southwest of Pokrovsk.
Zaporizhzhia Axis -
Increasing rumors of an impending Russian offensive into this sector.
Summary —
Ukraine defense is increasingly being forced to yield terrain in the Pokrovsk region, the primary focus of waining Russian offensive into the Donbas. Gains are coming at a great cost, with Russian losses now approaching 750K. With a weakening economy, removal of more men from work in the private sector is making matters worse, fewer available for manufacturing, farming, etc.
Russia is once again stepping up its Shahed drone attacks into Ukraine. There are reports of more counter strikes by Ukraine using ATACMS, and British/French cruise missiles. Silence on both sides indicate serious OPSEC in place.
Western govts are in meetings regarding putin’s latest nuclear / conventional threats. So far it looks like the west is leaning on calling putin’s bluff and not holding back on use of these long range weapons systems by Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Ceasefire agreement appears to be close at hand.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is planning to bring the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon for the approval of only the Cabinet, and not bring it to for the approval of the entire Israeli government.
It is expected that Netanyahu will call the Cabinet ministers together on Tuesday afternoon, and present them with the agreements achieved.
Israeli Ambassador to the US Michael Herzog on Tuesday morning estimated that an agreement will allow Israel to cancel the limits on American weapons shipments.
“We have understandings with the administration, which anchor our freedom of movement if there are violations on the Lebanese side of the border. We will not allow Hezbollah to strengthen itself on the border.”
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/399777
Reuters, citing an Israeli government spokesman: The agreement with Lebanon will preserve our freedom to act to eliminate the threat of Hezbollah
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Some released details of the agreement -
Details of the emerging agreement:
- The IDF will evacuate its forces from Lebanon within 60 days so that the Lebanese army can occupy the territories from which the IDF has evacuated.
- The forces of the Lebanese army will destroy the remaining Hezbollah infrastructures up to the Litani border and in fact the area from southern Lebanon to the Litani river will be under the total control of the Lebanese army (0 Hizbollah lands)
- As part of the follow-up after the implementation of the agreement, a committee of 5 countries was established whose role will be to monitor the phases of the agreement and their full implementation. The additional role of the committee will be to enforce the agreement and prevent violations. If the committee fails to get Hezbollah to enforce fire discipline, Israel will have a free hand to act.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army: Forces from the 91st Division reached the Wadi al-Saluqi and Litani River areas in southern Lebanon. Operations in the area of the Litani River mark the first time in over two decades that IDF soldiers have reached the area.
In the eastern area, IDF is in Khiam combing the area, most Hezbollah terrorist that where here are dead, fled or captured. Significant gains in Burj Al- Muluk as well on the western margin of the border.
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Israeli security officials estimate that Hezbollah is preparing to carry out large-scale launches towards Israel, starting in the next few hours(before the announcement of a cease-fire)
NOTE - This would not be the first time Hamas/Hezbollah have done such a blitz.
IAF has stepped up airstrikes in S Beirut by a massive amount. Evacuation warnings for over 20 buildings have been announced overnight and that number is expected to grow. Similar increase in strikes in the Tyre region.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syrian media report that the IDF recently struck 8 bridges in the Qusayr area, southern Homs. These bridges are used to transfer goods (and weapons) from Syria to Lebanon. The attacked bridges are:
Al-Daf
Al-Joubanieh
Al-Houz
Jousieh
Al-Khadour
Matrabah
Al-Housh
Arjoun
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli Ministry of Defense: We have begun working on an engineering plan to build a security barrier on the eastern border with Jordan
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Behind the curtains on the Lebanon cease fire deal. Netanyahu’s statements strongly suggest that biden regime is playing hard ball. In addition of further cessations of arms shipments should Israel reject the plan, the US has threatened to join an UN Security Council resolution demanding the immediate cessation of fighting.
Israel may be hoping to ride out the biden regime’s final assaults on the nation, possibly knowing that Hezbollah will violate the agreement and permit full operations by Israel once again.
A few out takes that I can see.
- 60 days to full implementation and withdrawal by Israel. This deadline places it squarely within the Trump administration. Thus the big sticks biden has used to force this agreement on Israel will be removed.
- Israel retains the right to strike Hezbollah in retaliation for any attacks. History shows that Hezbollah and Hamas will launch attacks when they feel they have been reconstituted enough to continue the fight. If Israel were to be denied this option there would be no potential for an agreement.
- The acceptance of the conditions are not a given by Israel’s govt. Contains far too many loopholes for Hezbollah and the ‘peace keepers’ to weasel around and go back to the bogus 1701 UN resolution that didn’t accomplish anything. Israel cabinet and govt has serious doubts and objections to the plan.
- Iran is urging Hezbollah to accept the plan, suggesting that it recognizes the immense damage the war has cost their proxy force.
Will 60 days be enough for Hezbollah to reconstitute and reorganize their forces. The answer is yes, though not to the levels that would be a deterrent to Israel should the shooting start again. The biggest effort would be to salvage their rocket / missile forces. Second, to reestablish reinforcements and resupply to ground forces in the south. It would be enough to force Israel to refight for terrain already captured by current combat.
The actions behind the scenes with the US forcing Israel to accept this plan may have moved the needle on Iran’s thoughts and plans for a missile strike. There has been increasing rhetoric from Iran once again, after being very quiet following the Trump election win. Remember, a great deal of middle eastern foreign policy is based on the perception of strength vs weakness. Iran may see Israel now as ‘weak’ given how they are being forced into a cease fire by the US - indicating loss of US support against Iran as well. The threat of a missile attack before Jan 20 is increasing again and may grow even further is biden starts large scale pull out of assets deployed to the region over the past couple months as a deterrent.
Looking at the Houthi’s attacks on shipping in the Red Sea region, it was evident months ago that the minimalist interdiction efforts of the US and others were not going to work. A substantial and longer campaign of airstrikes targeting Houthi resources and LEADERSHIP would be required to force them to step back from their attacks. Israeli airstrikes and the B2 attacks of a month ago made some impacts, but the asymmetric nature of the Houthi attacks make continued harassment of shipping possible.
Iran –
Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Force: Israel crossed Iran’s red lines, and it should be aware that Iranian Armed Forces will deliver a regrettable and different response at an appropriate time. This response will be beyond the imagination of the Israeli leaders
OBSERVATION - See Assessment and Future Ops under Israel above.
Syria -
Reports of a rocket attack by Iranian-backed militias, on U.S. forces stationed at al-Shaddadi in Northeastern Syria. Possible damage and casualties are currently unknown, with at least 5 rockets having been fired at the base.
Mexico -
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is signaling that significant policy changes are on the table just days after a post-Election Day congratulatory call to the U.S. president-elect.
Trump reportedly shattered the “cordial” call by bringing up the most pressing issue on U.S.-Mexico relations: the lengthy border between our two countries and the unacceptable state of it.
OBSERVATION - Trump is coming in like a lion and taking no prisoners. Tariffs and other economic sanctions against Mexico have seriously gotten their attention.
Worth repeating...
Thanks
Heads up. I’ll be standing down Thursday and Friday for Thanksgiving and related. Blessed days of giving thanks to all.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Nov 12, 2024
(FO) Tucson, AZ Mayor Regina Romero said she will work with Tucson police chief Chad Kasmer to “focus on protecting and serving Tucsonans” against President-elect Donald Trump’s immigration agenda. A Tucson Police Department spokesman said the Tucson PD will continue current policies against detaining suspects solely for suspicion of immigration violations and prolonging stops to investigate immigration status.
OBSERVATION - Add another to the list of contemplating potential force in preventing ICE from doing their jobs.
An unnerving thought is that these efforts are beginning to track parallel in some ways to the slavery issue of CW1.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Oct 20, 2024
Thanksgiving Nov 28
Hanukkah: Dec 26 - Jan 1
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Maintain your heads on a swivel - holidays pose great potential for terror actions.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Trump’s announcements of tariffs has some US companies scrambling to re-route supplies and products.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 above.
China –
Rumors that a high ranking national command officer is under investigation for corruption.
Russia -
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The situation “on the battlefield” suggests that a diplomatic settlement in Ukraine is still a long way off, - Lavrov said
Economic Impact –
US sanctions on Russian banks, including Gazprombank, have led to a sharp drop in the ruble, now over 110 per dollar, the weakest level since March 2022. The new penalties target key channels of foreign-currency inflows, risking further economic strain as Russia faces growing FX shortages.
OBSERVATION - One reason Russia via BRICS is attempting to decouple its global economy from the dollar.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling to the 20-30s and scattered snow
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine reportedly attacked Belbek airfield in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea. Pro-Kremlin media claims around 40 UAVs, Neptune missiles, and unidentified ballistic missiles were involved. Russian air defenses allegedly downed 25 drones over the Black Sea and Crimea.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 89 launched, 36 were shot down and 48 were suppressed by electronic warfare. Five more flew back to Belarus.
Russian losses per 27/11/24 reported by the Ukrainian general staff
+1580 men
+14 tanks
+48 AFVs
+24 artillery systems
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Intense Russian attacks all along the front in this sector, forcing Ukraine to ceed ground.
Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -
Russian forces are pushing southwestward along highway H-32, south of Chasiv Yar.
Summary —
Observers are noting Russian forces are making increasing gains in the Donbas. Some go as far as saying the defenses are collapsing. That doesn’t appear to be the case, but losses are building up and could result in significant logistic nodes for Ukraine’s defense support being stressed or even captured.
Meanwhile - action in Kursk is very limited. The big Russian offensive has not played out. I am thinking that it was a ruse to shift forces back to the Donbas region. So far, no one else is making that assumption or observation, but it rides in the back of my mind at the moment, given the massive amount of Russia action in the Donbas.
Russian gains still coming at a high price ,with monthly losses continuing in the range of at least 45K per month - this up from 30K range earlier this summer.
Western elements still all a tizzy over Russia’s “new” intermediate range missile with MIRVs each containing the potential for sub munitions. IMHO, those who are overstating the capabilities of this unusual warhead configuration are falling into Russia propaganda scare tactics.
Europe / NATO General –
G7 Foreign Ministers issues a statement on “Steadfast Support For Ukraine,” saying Russia’s use of an intermediate range ballistic missile on Nov 21 was ‘further evidence of its reckless and escalatory behavior’
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Ceasefire agreement in Lebanon goes into place overnight.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Blinken is saying the next goal is a cease fire in Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-
Givati fighters stormed a former school in the Jabaliya camp—now a terrorist stronghold. Around 40 terrorists, scrambling like rats tried to flee, were eliminated on the spot. Another 300, holed up inside, surrendered and were taken into Israel custody.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Before the ceasefire at 4 a.m., the Israeli Air Force launched waves of strikes on 330 Hezbollah targets across Lebanon, including a major precision missile site in the Beqaa Valley and a border crossing used for smuggling weapons. The IDF reported eliminating dozens of Hezbollah operatives, including the aerial operations chief, and striking 42 sites in Beirut.
Hezbollah failed to fire any pre-ceasefire rocket barrages.
Israeli Minister of Security issues orders to arrest any Lebanese who enters the town of Kafr Kila in southern Lebanon
Eight vehicles and a motorcycle carrying Hezbollah personnel arrived at the ruins of Kfar Kila near Matula. The IDF force that was on the spot drove them away with warning shots. Other elements of Hezbollah fighters have been observed moving south in other areas of S Lebanon.
Lebanese Prime Minister: We are committed to implementing Security Council Resolution 1701 in all its provisions
Israeli army asks Lebanese not to approach its positions
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli air strikes target Hezbollah militia sites in the Umm Harateen area west of Homs and the Al-Aminah area north of Homs
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces captured a large cache of heavy weapons and explosives smuggled in by Hezbollah elements.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Lebanon ceasefire is underway and already Hezbollah is pushing the envelope. Lebanese military isn’t close to being in place yet to interdict (if they will at all). Lebanese who evacuated cities on the border have streamed back south, with Hezbollah elements blending in and trying to work up close to IDF forces. This WILL result in Hezbollah ambushes. IDF is aggressively warning people away from their positions - even firing live rounds.
This brings up an important point. Hezbollah may believe that Israel will act towards Hezbollah aggressions in a manner done so in the past. Very dangerous assumptions given that Israel hasn’t followed Hezbollah’s “rules” in this fight so far.
Israel’s blitz of airstrikes have reportedly decimated Hezbollah’s drone and cruise missile capabilities by a reported 70%. There are very few buildings left standing in the Hezbollah sector of S Beirut.
An important aspect is that this ceasefire was not linked to Gaza, a breaking of Hezbollah’s promise to Hamas.
Eyes are focusing on Gaza and I fully expect that the US will pull the same heavy arm twisting they did for Lebanon - continuing to threaten to stop all arms shipments and go as far as endorsing an UN security council resolution for a global arms embargo. A hard point for Israel is the release of all remaining hostages. I don’t think that Israel will accept the dribble of a few at a time as has happened in the past. The hostage issue is very key to any agreement.
Both actions have a very short shelf life. Trump has already been outspoken concerning Israel’s right to protect itself, so that any violations by Hezbollah/Hamas in the course of any agreements in the next month and a half are going to come back hard on them as Trump will break the chains biden has placed upon them.
Iran knows it is in the spotlight, especially if Hezbollah remains neutered. With the rapidly changing geopolitical situation I am uncertain if either will launch an attack on each other before Jan 20. The chains the US have placed on Israel’s actions make it less likely it will do anything before unless Iran does something first.
As I noted in the past few days, perceived strength is key to regional politics and actions. Biden’s crackdown on Israel to forced the Lebanon ceasefire is a clear indicator that Israel is now in a weakened state. Iran could gamble on a strike before Jan 20 if they think they can get away with it, thinking that the US will limit any retaliatory strike as well. Not much time before Trump takes office, so such an action would be very risky. But then, the probability of an Israeli strike after Jan 20 starts increasing nearly exponentially.
Syria -
The Syrian opposition takes control of the town of Qabtan al-Jabal, west of Aleppo province, after violent clashes against the Pro-Assad forces, coinciding with air strikes on the center of the town, north of Syria. Violent clashes between the Syrian opposition forces and the Pro-Assad forces forces inside the town of Qabtan al-Jabal, west of Aleppo, north of Syria, in an attempt by the opposition to take control of it
Turkish military forces have started to carry out artillery strikes against the Pro-Assad forces - as of now as a retaliation for the artillery strikes on their base. HTS carried out a large scale artillery barrage on the city Urum in the western Aleppo countryside
OBSERVATION - This is the first offensive actions by anti-Assad forces I’ve seen in years. May have some associated support from Turkey. Interesting events suggesting that decreased Russian support may be weakening Assad in the Aleppo region.