Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
This is a stunning development - it means if someone has to be traced - a terrorist or a Chinese spy - law enforcement won’t have a picture of the person they’re looking for...
Is this more fallout from the bribery?
illegal Immigration –
Migrants without proper identification may apparently opt out of being photographed by TSA upon entry at Miami International Airport.
According to a sign posted on X by conservative podcaster Dave Rubin Thursday, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) is allowing migrants to pass through entry points without having their picture taken.
OBSERVATION - Probably cross reference under Terrorism as well. TSA is allowing tens (hundreds?) of thousands of illegal aliens to transit our county in an untrackable manner. As much of a farce TSA has turned into over the years, this just goes beyond the pale.
The Biden Administration’s actions on so many fronts are so damaging to American interests that you have to assume The Biden Administration is working for America’s enemies.
It's hard coming up with any other conclusions... I can't think of one reason why illegals should NOT be photographed... can you?
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WEF Davos Jan 15-19
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
A group of House Republicans, led by Pennsylvania Rep. Scott Perry, introduced legislation Thursday to defund the World Economic Forum (WEF).
The Defund Davos Act, the legislation would specifically block the State Department, USAID, and any other federal agency from providing funding to the (WEF). The U.S. has spent millions on the WEF over the years, something Perry and other GOP lawmakers say needs to end.
OBSERVATION - Symbolic in that it likely won’t even pass the House, let along the Senate.
***
Disease “X” still taking center stage at Davos.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Director-General at the World Health Organization (WHO), is adamant that another pandemic is coming, claiming its not “if” but “when.”
Tedros and a set of other guests discussed this during a segment called “Preparing for Disease X” – a placeholder term for any viral outbreak or plague that may become a threat on an international scale. The WEF asked, “With the World Health Organization continuing to research the potential of so-called ‘Disease X’, what novel efforts are needed to prepare healthcare systems for the multiple challenges ahead?”
[…] There are things that are unknown that may happen, and anything happening is a matter of when not if.
Disease X is a placeholder for unknown diseases. I just wanted to clarify that because there has already been a lot of attention. Although COVID came immediately, we were preparing for COVID-like diseases. You may even call COVID the first ‘Disease X.’ And it may happen again.”
Of course, there are some people who say this will create panic. No! It’s better to anticipate something that may happen because it has happened in our history many times and prepare for it.
We shouldn’t face things unprepared; we can prepare for some unknown things as well”
OBSERVATION - This constant banging of the drums over “X” is causing this to pass from conspiracy theory to they really are planning on something - big.
***
John Kerry, announced the need for a war-like effort to collapse the global farming industry, under the pretext of tackling the “human-induced climate change” hoax.
“You just can’t continue to both warm the planet, while also expecting to feed it. It doesn’t work... So we have to reduce emissions from the food system.”
OBSERVATION - This just emphasizes that the carbon they want to reduce is YOU.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Upcoming events of importance
- 18 January 2023, Atlanta, “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests against the Police training facility being constructed
****
Showdown in TX continues. The deadline set by DHS has passed with no fed actions.
Worst case scenario continues to be an armed response by the Feds that could trigger other red states to more aggressively reject Washington control.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
*****
The dollar, once the bedrock of global financial stability, has now found itself at the bottom of the heap. In a stunning turn of events, the U.S. dollar, often synonymous with economic might, has been relegated to the 10th spot in Forbes’ latest ranking of the world’s strongest currencies. This development comes amidst concerted efforts by the BRICS nations, particularly China and Russia, to diminish the greenback’s global dominance.
OBSERVATION - The dollar used to be the bedrock of sound economics. Inflation plus efforts by adversarial nations have targeted it to strip the power from the US’ foreign policy as well has economy. BRICS is the latest in such an effort. Many economists still see the dollar has the baseline for the globe, but acknowledge that these other efforts are eroding its status. Loss of lead currency status will also mean increased potential for a devastation economic hit in the future as well.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Checking on reports that two other carrier CSGs - Washington and Roosevelt - have deployed into the eastern Atlantic.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Harris said at the NAACP South Carolina State Conference’s King Day at the Dome event on Monday. “The promise of America, I do believe, is in the faith of the people – our faith in the founding principles of our nation and our profound commitment to make those principles real.”
“Generation after generation, on the fields of Gettysburg, in the schools of Little Rock, on the grounds of this state house, on the streets of Ferguson, and on the floor of the Tennessee House of Representatives, we the people have always fought to make the promise of freedom real.”
OBSERVATION - Ferguson = Gettysburg ????? Does someone have to dress and feed her?
***
Biden - “I love people who say ‘the tree of liberty is watered with the blood of patriots!’ Well, guess what man? If you really want to worry about the government, you need an F16.”
OBSERVATION - he’s back on this ‘you need a…..’ meme again. Is he actually considering use of US military forces against Americans?
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Warming trend bringing temps into the 40’s with rain/snow dropping back down to the 20-30s with snow towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 4 of 7 Shahed drones overnight, 3 more not reached their targets.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.
Russia continuing to push attacks all along the eastern front.
Europe / NATO General –
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have agreed on building a defensive fortification line on their border with the Russian Federation.
ISRAEL –
——— GENERAL ——————————-
European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Friday that the only peaceful solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict included the creation of a Palestinian state, and he suggested this might need to “be imposed from the outside,” without Israel’s agreement.
Borrell, in a speech at the University of Valladolid in Spain, said that without international intervention, the “spiral of hate will continue generation after generation,” according to multiple Spanish media outlets.
“The actors are too opposed to be able to reach an agreement autonomously,” Borrell said. “If everyone is in favor of this solution, the international community will have to impose it.”
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-15/
***
Netanyahu says two-thirds of Hamas’ fighting forces have been eliminated
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continues to tighten the noose around Khan Younis and remaining Hamas and allied forces.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IRGC statement says four IRGC advisors were killed alongside a number of Syrians in the suspected Israeli strikes overnight in Damascus. The statement does not mention any names.
“Sardar Haj Sadiq Omidzadeh, the deputy intelligence officer of IRGC Quds Force in Syria, along with his deputy Haj Gholam (Muharram) were reportedly killed in the attacks on Damascus.” Source: Pasdaran Cyber Corps/Telegram
———WEST BANK——————————-
Multiple engagements between West Bank groups and Israeli security forces. Security forces make many raids throughout the West Bank capturing Hamas and other terror leaders and cells.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The U.S. targeted & destroyed several Houthi anti-ship missiles today that were being staged to target commercial shipping lanes. A U.S. official tells Fox News these strikes were out of self-defense. F-18’s from the USS Eisenhower were used to target the Houthi missiles
Biden admitted Thursday that U.S. airstrikes in Yemen are not deterring the Houthi rebels’ attacks in the Red Sea. biden even hinted that ground operations maybe necessary.
Pentagon is asking biden to remove restraints to go more aggressively at Houthi infrastructure and leadership. so far the WH is saying no.
***
The Al-Asad Air Base in Western Iraq, has been attacked with upwards of 20 rockets launched by Iranian-backed forces. No word on casualties at this moment.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
The Houthi issue continues to grow. US/allied forces hunting TELS in the Yemeni desert has been good, but you really have to hit their logistics and command to put a real hurt on them. Reports are that some of the critters in the Pentagon realize this, but the biden WH is reluctant to let them go weapons free to stomp the threat out. Continued displayed weakness by the US facilitates boldness by the Houthi to continue their campaign.
On a long term view - a ‘forced’ two state solution would not do anything for a regional peace deal. The radical islamic factions are too dug in and will never quit trying to eliminate Israel as a nation and people - and more moderate arab nations will not come forward to stop them.
Misc of Note –
European leaders from multiple nations have been out warning their citizens to prepare for an impending war. Even Sweden’s Civil Defense Minister and military Commander-in-Chief are warning that war with Russia is possible. Now NATO countries are coming together for the largest military exercise in decades focusing on a Russian invasion. This sudden shift in attention is startling and could be a forebearer of bad things to come in the next years.
Sounds like a threat to me.
Yes it does
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
WEF has ended, but the citations keep rolling out.
Queen Máxima of the Netherlands has called on globalist elites at the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Davos summit to expand plans for global “digital IDs” to ensure they can track individuals’ “vaccination status” and other private information.
The Dutch queen made the demands during a panel discussion at the WEF’s annual event in Switzerland this week.
Queen Máxima has served as United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’s Special Advocate for Inclusive Finance for Development (UNSGSA) since 2009.
Speaking to WEF elites in Davos on Thursday, Queen Máxima said governments should roll out “biometric digital IDs” for the public globally. She argues that the IDs can be used to track “who actually got a vaccination or not.”
Perhaps more alarmingly, she suggested that “digital IDs” should be a requirement for members of the general public to get “subsidies from the government.”
OBSERVATION - Continued fixation on tracking ‘vaccinations’. That doesn’t track well with the population since the ending of the plandemic. Demands on those who get ‘subsidies’ is concerning, but consistent, with big Gov initiatives. Are ‘subsidies’ considered to be Soc Secty pay? Wide open undefined term.
****
At WEF’s annual meeting in Davos, the Czech Foreign Minister called for a global solution against “false content,” and the United Nations Secretary-General proposed linking people’s digital identities (“IDs”) to their bank accounts and using digital IDs to censor unapproved speech.
In a nutshell, WEF’s annual meeting called for digital IDs, rapid development of new vaccines, more partnerships with corporate media outlets and widespread acceptance and proliferation of artificial intelligence in all areas of society.
OBSERVATION - Huge emphasis on censorship to push the narrative onto the populace. Renewed calls for full digital id combined with a social credit score and programmable funds. A huge view of the totalitarian dystopic world they think will be paradise.
***
Another prominent speaker pushing another awful idea was IMF head Kristalina Georgieva. Ms. Georgieva appeared to have a multi-pronged assignment at this year’s festival consisting of comforting attendees that the world appears to be “poised for a soft landing,” while at the same time warning that elections are somehow a bad thing economically.
“This is going to be a very tough year, because fiscal policy has to rebuild buffers and deal with the debt that was accumulated in many countries,” Georgieva said in an interview conducted prior to arriving at the conference. “About 80 countries are going to have elections, and we know what happens with pressure on spending during election cycles.”
Then, in her address to the conference, she railed against what climate zealots refer to as “fossil fuel subsidies,” the vast majority of which is simply a tabulation of the very same business tax treatments available to every other business sector — common accounting items like deductions for depreciation and cost of goods sold. Her claim that these “subsidies” amount to $1.3 trillion globally is ludicrous on its face, but that didn’t stop her from making it.
Then, in her next breath, she advocated for the global collective cancel them and replace them with the most economy-killing idea currently in vogue — a tax on carbon.
“Put it back to support climate action. We cannot accelerate decarbonization fast enough without pricing carbon, with a predictable increase of the carbon price. It has to be USD 85 by 2030,” she asserted.
Georgieva is utterly dismissive of any of the little people who complain about this, though. “I am sick and tired of listening to people saying, ‘My g*d it’s so expensive, where are we going to find the money” she said, adding, “Let’s get to bringing in the money from where it hurts and putting it to where it helps.”
Where it hurts most, of course, is for the poor and lower middle classes. If that seems callous to you, well, you are not alone. But at least she puts her real views out there for all to see, and there is much utility for the rest of us hoi polloi in knowing that.
https://thelibertydaily.com/imf-head-tells-little-people-pipe-down-get/
OBSERVATION - My ! These elites are completely out of touch with reality and those who they claim to champion.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Upcoming events of importance
- 18 January 2023, Atlanta, “Day of the Forest Defender,” protests against the Police training facility being constructed
****
Showdown in TX continues. TX has blown off DHS/DoJ threats of last week. Question still remains, with the feds resort to an armed assault to retake the park? That is the worst possible scenario and could trigger massive rift between red states and the regime that could trigger even more resistance to the govt and spur more Texas exit activity.
Some pundits and analysts have in the past have suggested that if Texas were to initiate separation from the union, a couple dozen other red states my possibly follow suit.
***
“Patriot Front” a gaggle of fed agents masquerading as a right wing group, marched in NYC yesterday.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
U.S. drug regulators influenced the decision not to send an alert on heart inflammation cases that were appearing after COVID-19 vaccination, according to emails obtained through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was preparing to issue an alert about postvaccination myocarditis, or heart inflammation, through its Health Alert Network in May 2021. But that plan changed after meeting with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), according to the emails.
“However, after discussions internally and with FDA, we will likely [redacted],” she wrote. “Our team is on a call with FDA now. I will share the messaging shortly.”
Ms. Tumpey later emailed to say that the CDC had opted to issue a document called clinical considerations rather than an alert.
The CDC issued the online considerations on May 28, 2021. They stated that “increased cases of myocarditis and pericarditis have been reported in the United States after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination (Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna)” but that every person aged 12 years and up should still get vaccinated.
The FDA did not deny influencing the decision not to send the alert.
“The FDA continues to work collaboratively with the CDC to monitor for known safety risks related to vaccines and determine how best to ensure any relevant safety information is conveyed to the public, health care providers and clinicians,” a spokesperson told The Epoch Times in an email. “After thorough assessment and when the potential risk was clear, the FDA updated the fact sheets for the COVID-19 vaccines and communicated with the public in a manner that was determined to be appropriate for the assessed risk.”
The FDA, which authorized the Pfizer and Moderna shots, did not add warnings about myocarditis until June 25, 2021.
https://thelibertydaily.com/fda-influenced-cdcs-decision-remain-silent-after-learning/
OBSERVATION - More evidence that the FDA and CDC KNEW that the mRNA ‘vaccines’ were dangerous, but buried that knowledge anyway to push the jab. Now millions are facing myocarditis and pericarditis as well as have died from it.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
In a Federal Court in Atlanta, Georgia, computer science and engineering professor J. Alex Halderman was able to hack a Dominion voting tabulator in front of U.S. District Judge Amy Totenberg using only a pen to change the vote totals.
OBSERVATION - One of the major claims by those who deny the 2020 election was jacked is that these Dominion voting machines were ‘secure’. This testimony and demonstration put a big hole in that argument. Add to it the fact that these machines were also illegally connected to the internet via WiFi.
Georgia has been one of the major epicenters of the whole vote scandal, and recent revelations are demonstrating there was rampant fraud.
Illegal Immigration –
It costs an annual rate of $451 billion to pay for the illegal migrant population in the US [2023 estimate]. It costs $15 billion to build a wall along the entire US-Mexico border.
***
biden admits the border is not secure. He demanded more money to make it secure. See note above on border fence.
OBSERVATION - Of course, the $$$$ he demands is for social programs/money to keep incentivizing illegals to come here - and absolutely nothing to prevent them.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Adviivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Warming trend bringing temps into the 40’s with rain/snow dropping back down to the 20-30s with snow towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Commander of Ukrainian land forces confirmed withdrawal from the Krokhmalne village in Kharkiv region
Non-stop Russian attacks in Avdiyivka
In 2023 the Ukrainians destroyed about 3,800 aerial targets. These included 887 cruise missiles, 15 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles, 41 other ballistic missiles, 2,691 Iran supplied Shahed UAVs, 35 Lancet UAVs plus 131 Orlan and other UAVs
Currently Russia is losing about 300 soldiers, dead or wounded, a day. If this continues throughout 2024, Losses to Russian forces will reach 500,000 dead and badly wounded. In contrast, the Ukrainians have had 70,000 soldiers killed and about 110,000 wounded. The lower Ukrainian losses are the result of tactics that seek to minimize casualties while deaths are reduced by providing prompt and more effective medical care for the wounded. The Ukrainians also take advantage of the Russian tactics by preparing for these attacks so that Ukrainian losses are low and Russian losses are high.
Russian Territory –
Heavy explosions and large fires in the Leningrad Region, Russia, almost 900km from the Ukrainian border. According to the governor of the Leningrad region, the facilities of the Novatek natural gas company are compromised. Locals reported that they heard the sounds of drones before the explosion.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.
Been monitoring numerous massive fires at industrial and petroleum sites in Russia. Some clearly linked to Ukraine drone attacks, other from ‘other’ sources. In part, if most are linked to Ukraine, they are very successfully targeting Russian infrastructure and business to deter the Russia war effort.
Russia’s missile campaign against Ukraine’s power grid seems to be on pause. Also appears to be more timid in the Sea of Azov region with their A-50 brought in to replace the one shot down. It is flying on the other side of the sea from Ukraine to say well outside the Patriot envelope. This has severely degraded the A-50’s coverage of the region and opened up more avenues of attack for Ukraine drones into occupied southern Ukraine and Crimea. Neutralization of Russia’s air defenses - especially its early warning system - will become more critical once F-16s are fully online and available for use. Just how Ukraine will utilize them has yet to be seen, but with much of everything else, they have shown a creativeness that has kept Russia on its toes.
Pakistan –
Reports of heavy clashes having erupted on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan between Taliban soldiers and Pakistani Army near the Bajaur-Kunar border.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- The Israeli military released photos of a kilometre-long tunnel with holding cells where Hamas allegedly kept about 20 hostages.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari on Saturday evening reported the discovery of a tunnel in Khan Yunis in which some of the hostages were held.
“The soldiers located, based on precise intelligence, the entry to a tunnel located in the home of a Hamas terrorist,” Hagari said. “They entered the tunnel, found terrorists, and conducted a battle, at the end of which the terrorists were eliminated. The tunnel was laced with explosives and shock doors, which were intended to protect the terrorists and prevent the hostages from advancing.”
“When we came into this tunnel, there were no hostages in it, but they had been in it in the past. After about a kilometer of walking in the tunnel, at a depth of 20 meters underground, the soldiers found the central room - which according to testimonies from hostages who returned - we understood that this was there they spent most of their time.”
***
Israel’s cabinet approved a plan for frozen tax funds earmarked for the Hamas-run Gaza Strip to be held by Norway instead of transferred to the Palestinian Authority (PA), officials said on Sunday.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Fighting raged across the Gaza Strip on Sunday, with reports of gunfire, air strikes and tank shelling in Khan Younis, Gaza’s main southern city.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards says fifth member died after being wounded in Israeli strike in Syria - Reuters citing Iranian state media
Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi vowed to punish Israel soon.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the start of military air patrols along the disengagement line between Syria and the occupied-Golan Heights. Israel has carried out airstrikes on Syria from this zone.
OBSERVATION - Monitoring closely to see if Russia actually puts planes in this zone. If so, the threat of Israel/Russia open hostilities are on the verge of growing exponentially. This indicates a total breakdown of the ‘cooperation’ between the two to avoid Russia being drawn in to targeting of Hezbollah and Iranian targets.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Ongoing Israeli security operations to locate and arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Al-Asad Air Base in Western Iraq, UPDATE
- Not rockets, but tactical ballistic missiles;
- U.S. injuries confirmed;
15+ U.S. Patriot missiles were launched to intercept, but some missiles still got through
***
According to an exclusive Yemeni source, Ansarullah is considering implementing a plan they call the ‘Al-Aqsa Triangle’, by closing all three of the Middle East’s major waterways: Bab Al-Mandab, Strait of Hormuz, and the Suez Canal.
This will stop the oil and gas feeding Israel from Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
OBSERVATION - Result of the weak response by the US. It will now take a major effort to combat this expansion of Houthi efforts to shut down shipping.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Continued push for a 2 state ‘solution’ to the conflict by the US, UN and other govts and agencies.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
The Houthi issue is quickly becoming more pressing than the actual combat in Gaza. Houthi see the relatively continued weak response by US and allies as a GO signal to continue their attacks. The threat to expand it to the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz region are particularly dangerous and could cause oil prices to spike. biden’s Iranian appeasement efforts are only making matters worse.
Iranian backed attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria have also grown significantly. Use of tactical ballistic missiles at the Al-Asad Air Base is a case in point. Things are coming close to coming completely unraveled and the US unable to effectively counter these attacks without a massive response.
The US is losing face in the region, and Iran expands its dominance in that vacuum.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
See Pakistan above on border fight.
Misc of Note –
A 1 meter diameter astroid was detected and predicted to hit the earth overnight. True to the prediction, it stuck the atmosphere near Berlin GE and exploded into fragments only hours later. Countless numbers of these and larger intercept the Earth’s path around the sun, and has geologic history has noted, the Earth has not been immune to massive impacts in the past.
Why not require the “biometric digital IDs” to vote?
That could quash biometric digital ID legality in The Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave. No (D) politician would allow it to exist!
As always, thanks for your report.
Where do you get your data for the number of deaths in Ukraine? I see higher numbers in other places. And what of the reports that in Ukraine they are forcing young boys and older men to fight, and are now going after women?
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
WEF hits keep coming -
Klaus Schwab reportedly got up and walked out of room during Argentina President Milei’s speech at Davos attacking globalist power-hungry Elites according to Gateway pundit.
***
CEO Larry Fink speaking at the WEF forum.
“You have to FORCE behaviours, at Blackrock we are FORCING behaviours”
Blackrock essentially own every major corporation in the world & now determine capital investment through ESG (environmental social governance) this also applies to sovereign countries.
OBSERVATION - With its trillions of dollars of assets, BlackRock is THE force that the WEF looks to when forcing the private sector into compliance with their agenda. Fink is essentially saying that this private sector leverage is now working at a governmental level.
***
John Scott, Head of Sustainability, Zurich Insurance Group, recently indicated that people’s growing issues with paying for basic necessities is actually in some ways good as it helps with achieving harmony in meeting global decarbonization goals.
Scott explained this during a forum discussing the World Economic Forum’s recently published Global Risks Report 2024, on January 10th.
During a Q&A session discussing the findings in the report, Scott was asked about collaboration in tackling climate change and how its not keeping pace with the Paris Agreement, and was asked, “how do you see real collaboration that keeps up with the pace of the risks happening, given everything else that we are talking about with climate change?”
Scott had this to say:
[…] I think it’s just a reality that the world just doesn’t get organized by International cooperation anymore, you know it’s fragmented, it’s in flux.
[…] You know we talked about the cost of living crisis, you know some people’s, most people’s electricity bills are so high that they’re desperately trying to find some way of getting off the grid or removing themselves from the cost of purchasing electricity, so I think it’s these kind of things that you know it gives us some hope and optimism actually, that we can deal with some of these global risks when we see the global cooperation at an international level not really working so well.
OBSERVATION - People living in poverty cannot afford essentials like electricity and being denied that (among other things), they reduce consumption and its resulting carbon foot print. Essentially, they want you dirt poor.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. It has been reported that other states have sent personnel to support TX efforts along the border, and it is uncertain how many of these assets are in Eagle Pass. Any use of force by the Feds could send the tensions between red states and the regime into the red zone very fast.
***
Alex Soros is currently facing scrutiny due to his recent tweet sharing a post from the far-left The Atlantic that features a bullet hole and a sum of $47. This is seen as an obvious threat against President Trump
OBSERVATION - This is a continuation of the left’s fetish for an assassination of Trump and expanded - assassination of any conservative in a position of power. I don’t think I need to say the consequences of that action would be.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
The illegal lab found in California with Malaria, Dengue Fever, Hepatitis, HIV and Ebola. Was run by a Chinese man named Jia Bei Zhu who came here illegally. He has said he wants to “defeat the American aggressor”.
Fox News says “A recent bipartisan congressional report determined Zhu received significant financial payments from China”
Yet no charges have been filed.
From a Fox News story:
“Despite the probability that the unlabeled or coded vials contained additional unknown and dangerous pathogens, CDC officials refused to take any further investigative steps,” the report stated. It also claimed CDC officials failed to take “meaningful action” when presented with evidence that Ebola, classified at the highest level of concern, may have been present.”
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/01/more-on-the-chinese-biolab-in-california/
OBSERVATION - Nearly a year, and very little has been progressed on this story. The refusal of the different fed agencies to pursue this is disconcerting - almost deliberate cover up of a mega bio threat to the US. On the extreme end are rumors that “Disease X” is already in the country via this lab.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Reports of the development of a sustained campaign against the Houthi’s - See Israel below.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Threats to make the motion to vacate the Speakership seat continue to grow as Johnson continues to backtrack on numerous other promises besides those regarding the budget.
BTW, the CR comes due in March - right around Super Tuesday. Hmmm
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Avdiivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
What I initially thought was a Babylon Bee headline, now appears to be a legitimate one -
Putin has signed a decree making the sale of Alaska to the US illegal. territory is to be declared occupied
OBSERVATION - Still a lot of what the heck, but it seems to be trolling on a new level.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Warming trend bringing temps into the 40’s with rain/snow dropping back down to the 20-30s with snow towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 8 of 8 Shahed drones overnight.
Overall, activity along the fronts was reduced, except for the area around Avdiivak where Russia has continued to press its attacks.
Yesterday I noted an estimate that Russia was losing about 300 soldiers, dead or wounded, a day. It was noted that that number is one of the lower ones out there. Yes, there are higher ones and really higher ones, depending upon the propaganda factors included. High end results are often more than twice these numbers.
It is nearly impossible to get an accurate count given the inaccessibility to the dead bodies. For instance, thousands of Russian corpses lay across the no man’s land between Russian and Ukraine positions around Avdiivka. Both sides inflate opposition costs and minimize their own.
But lets face it - even at these lower numbers, the Russian war is a disaster for the Russians. The only way they are currently able to sustain it is through massive conscription efforts as well as draining penal colonies with promises of forgiveness.
Should have included the source being strategypage.com
F/U on the drone strike against the oil and gas terminals of Ust-Luga, all tanker loading operations have been suspended. Several fuel tankers are waiting near the Luga Bay.
Ust-Luga is Russia’s largest maritime terminal for crude oil exports.
The Novatek plant in Ust-Luga processes stable gas condensate, the final products being oil, kerosene, diesel fraction and fuel oil.
This was in its initial stages yesterday. Today we see a massive amount of destruction - one that will hit Russian exports in a major way. Additionally, Russian news is slamming the putin regime for allowing Ukraine drones to transit the country unopposed to hit the facility.
Today, Russia announced relocation of air defense assets to meet these new target sets.
Meanwhile, overnight, Ukrainian drone strike on Shcheglovsky Val military factory that produces Pantsir-S missile air defense systems in Tula.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.
Ukraine use of drones to effectively target Russian facilities continues to bear fruit. Russia has a big problem - too many juicy targets spread out over a large area. There are bound to be gaps in defenses that computer assisted, gps guided drones could exploit. Russia says they are going to redeploy assets to protect these facilities. Their problem is they only have so many systems available for use and any network will still be a patchwork. This being made worse by Ukraine’s priority of targeting air defense systems within the theater of operations. Daily reports I’ve seen show roughly as many air defense systems being killed daily as tanks. Russia doesnt have boneyards of ADA systems to pull from as they do tanks.
The St Petersburg attack on the Ust-Luga facility - once thought to be out of range for Ukrainian systems - means Russia has to reassess its defenses that are already getting stretched too thin.
Belarus -
“According to the new Military Doctrine, Belarus will consider an attack on its allies as an attack on its territory” — General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus
OBSERVATION - Its been a while since Belarus hit the radar screen, but this is a concerning one. While Belarus has been drilling and intensively training its forces over the course of the past couple years, many European analysts do not see it as an offensive threat. Political instability still is against the Belarus leadership and the inclinations of the forces are to reject getting involved in the Ukraine war. Regardless, the statement is a clear threat from the military - and not necessarily the civilian govt.
However, last year, fragment of the Wagner Group remained in Belarus with the mission to provide additional training and may have been focusing on altering the mindset of the officer corps of the army. Should Belarus join the fray, Ukraine at this stage would be in a world of hurt. Most of its assets are deployed along the southern and eastern fronts and trying to build up readiness for a winter offensive. Consideration of a Belarus threat has not been built into those plans. That could be changing.
ISRAEL –
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Sunday told representatives of Israeli hostage families that there are growing signs that they are hotter on the heels of Hamas’s top leadership and the hostages in Khan Yunis than they have been until now.
“Operations in Khan Yunis are at a high point, and there are early signs that are arriving at the most sensitive locations for Hamas are getting us closer to the two goals of the war,” said Gallant.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF has initiated the ground operation’s third stage, expected to be longer than its predecessors. This shift is towards more security oriented actions rather than the offensive search and destroy operations that have been going on.
While Israel states that N Gaza is under their control, Hamas and affiliated are still present and fighting with IDF forces.
Fiercest fighting continues to be in and around Khan Yunis.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
IAF striking targets deep within S Lebanon as well as along the border. Killed a Hezbollah leader overnight.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Kremlin announced the establishment of two additional military positions along the Syrian border. In this case, as well, Kulit issued the statement, claiming this was allegedly done to “monitor” the cease-fire, “due to the increased frequency of provocations in the region.”
This action, combined with the announcement of air patrols along the Syrian border are being conducted to limit Israel’s ability to attack Hezbollah and Iranian facilities in Syria.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Anti-terror operations continue, with Israeli security forces arresting more than 15 Palestinians in various parts of the West Bank
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi elements are seeking more weapons and in particular, more modern weapons to use against US and allied forces as they attempt to expand their attacks on shipping in the region.
The Washington Post reports that the U.S. is now crafting plans for a sustained military campaign targeting the Houthis in Yemen. U.S. officials believe the operation won’t bog down the military for years like in Afghanistan, but that a sustained bombing campaign will be needed
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordanian Foreign Minister: The only way to achieve security for all is the two-state solution
The Saudi Foreign Minister told CNN: It is necessary to establish a Palestinian state
Addressing the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, said on Tuesday that the American and British attacks on the Houthis can only worsen the security situation in the Red Sea and that the real solution to the security issues there is ceasing the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
According to Al Thani, the Western military intervention will neither bring an end to nor contain the Houthi attacks but will only escalate them, and the sole solution is to defuse the conflict in Gaza.
NOTE - Qatar is an open supporter of Hamas, being home to the three major leaders of the terror group - with all three being billionaires.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
The Houthi issue continues to grow with reports that the US is developing plans for a ‘sustained’ operation against them. The definition of ‘sustained’ is pretty loose and could be simply continuation of the hit and miss efforts to catch Houthi targets as they prepare to launch or it could mean a more substantial operation - major bombing campaign against the whole Houthi military infrastructure. The latter being the only one that would generated deterrence against further vessel attacks.
Houthi attacks, if expanded towards the Straits of Hormuz would meet one of Irans means of leveraging regional politics without being ‘directly’ involved in the action.
Any US actions against the Houthi (or Iran for that matter) has to be directed to be a knockout punch - all they need is one lucky shot and hit a US naval vessel.
Thanks
Correct. There have been something like 5 other “solutions offered and everyone was rejected by the so called palenistianians.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
WEF hits keep coming -
They are coming for our coffee now
Swiss banker and World Economic Forum “agenda contributor”, Hubert Keller: “The coffee that we all drink emits between 15 and 20 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of coffee... Every time we drink coffee, we are basically putting CO2 into the atmosphere.”
I really don’t think they want to mess with us before our coffee. Never realized that Juan Valdez wandering up and down the coffee plantation with his burro picking coffee beans was that carbon intensive - darn burro farts
***
Angry French farmers are dumping waste on the train tracks, canceling rail travel between Bordeaux and Agen. Earlier today, French farmers blocked Highway A62 between Toulouse and Bordeaux in both directions of traffic.
Similar to their German counterparts, French farmers are fed up with crippling, globalist policies in the name of curbing climate change.
German protests are continuing - now over a week in duration.
Now the Scottish farmers have begun protesting.
OBSERVATION - The past several posts, I’ve noted the WEF in Davos targeting food production as a major source of pollutants contributing to global warming. Follow closely, global warming is going to reduce agriculture production and cause famines, therefore we need to drastically reduce agriculture production in order to avoid famines.
You’ll need a cup of coffee that they want banned as well to work thru that wonder logic.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues.
Our country is teetering on the edge of a new constitutional crisis.
Justices John Roberts and Amy Coney Barett, sided with the Biden administration, allowing Biden’s federal border agents to dismantle razor fencing set up by Texas agents to stop illegals immigrants entering America.
The vote was 5-4. The decision vacated a previous injunction from the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals that prevented federal agents from cutting the wire.
Both Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton will refuse to back down over the issue and will carry on fighting to secure the southern border from the waves of illegal immigration. How that continued fight manifests will be seen in the course of the next few days.
The case is ongoing in lower courts, the USSC decision overturns a restraining order prohibiting removal of fencing during the appeal processes.
Abbots and Paxton’s rebuke of the decision left inferences that border patrol may still have difficulties accessing TX installed barb wire fences. Some thoughts included they can cut it but will be denied access thru Texas console lands to get to it in order to cut it. Give the decision - there doesn’t appear any demand to permit BP to cross TX controlled lands. If TX uses that apparent loop hole, the potential for violence greatly increases at Eagle Pass, though there are other areas less secure.
Across the inter webs, the issue spread like wildfire in support of TX. Many look at this situation of one of the most severe cases of state vs fed powers since the civil war. Many are encouraging Abbot to prohibit access to the fence, with many other calls to go forward with the growing TEXIT movement to pull out of the union. As I noted before, this may stimulate other red states to become more aggressive in opposing the regime.
Border Patrol and other federal agents need to firmly be reminded that they are to support the constitution, and not a mad man bent on destroying this country via open borders. Choice time is coming quickly - who’s side are the going to be on.
Will Abbot refuse access? Today may be critical in the growing standoff.
***
The actions of pelosi’s J6 starchamber in deleting all records and files to their “inquiry “ has pushed this out of the realm of Politics and into CW2.
Republicans recover over 100 files deleted by Jan. 6 committee days before GOP took majority. Many of these files are encrypted and the previous committee is refusing to provide the passwords.
This is grossly illegal but done in a flaunting manner knowing that they are unlikely to face any criminal charges, let alone any congressional sanctions any time soon. This disregard further implies that they believe that Trump will not be elected and the WH remain under democrat/leftist controls - burying their transgressions further under political hubris.
The word on this is getting out - and it increases the perception of gross illegalities and fraud over the whole J6 scenario that has been painted. It was a staged, entrapment false flag designed to be turned against Trump and his followers. That narrative is increasingly becoming unraveled.
OBSERVATION - This apparent two tier standards for govt investigations - especially destroying documents that have/are being used to try J6 defendants is just feeding the fire that will come to fruition should things go sideways.
***
Pro - hamas protests have ebbed for now, potentially suggesting that organizers are evaluating how the recent protests have moved the dial on their goals. Most observers note that they generated more pushback to their cause than support. But OTOH, their protests are being set up to intimidate and not necessarily generate support.
Another note to watch is if things get spicy in TX, the Antifa rabble mob could swing their attention into pro-illegal actions.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) is now operating in U.S. 7th Fleet, USNI News has learned. The carrier chopped into the 7th Fleet area of operations over the weekend, a defense official confirmed to USNI News.
TR left Naval Station North Island in San Diego, Calif., on Jan. 11 for its deployment. It is accompanied by guided-missile cruiser USS Lake Erie (CG-70). No clear word on other accompanying vessels
It’s unclear where the carrier will go next. But with issues growing in the western Pacific and Persian Gulf region, chances are it may be headed there or put in position to respond quickly.
OBSERVATION - Spin up ahead of schedule of CSGs is an indicator of expected action - offensive or defensive, in the near to intermediate term.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
New Hampshire Primary today. Trump is expected to win easily.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Metropolitan areas filled with illegals are turning into literal cesspools. Near the former St. Brigid’s School on East 7th Street, and Tompkins Square Park urine and feces are all over the place, dumped there by illegals. Portapotties put in the neighborhood became so filthy that workers gave up on maintaining them, according to locals. This seems to be San Francisco by an order of magnitude.
****
NewYork is looking to follow Kalifornia in granting free health care to all illegals instate.
***
Illegals are forming up around their ethnic groups and tensions between groups are increasing as competition for housing and other resources are increasingly strained.
China –
Chinese stocks have crashed over the past several days. On last Friday, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index crashed 6.5% this week - its worst weekly loss since March 2023 with Wednesday seeing the biggest daily loss since Oct 2022 as the index plummeted to key support levels around the Oct 2022 lows.
Xi’s govt has so far held off making moves to support the market. China’s equivalent of the “plunge protection team” took some actions to suspended short selling for some clients in mainland markets.
Now the market is being threatened because the lowered values stand to trigger what are called “snowball derivatives”
According to Guotai Junan Futures, there are about 30 billion yuan ($4.2 billion) of snowball derivatives products tied to the CSI 1000 Index are near levels that trigger losses at maturity, according to Guotai Junan Futures Co, as the stock rout in #China’s stock market pushes the derivatives to near knock-in levels.
Another 60 billion yuan of the derivatives are 5%-10% away from their knock-in thresholds!
Finally, as Sino Market points out, most Snowball derivatives were opened from Feb to April 2023.
Since the downside knock-in put barriers are set to 75% or 80% of the spot price, dealers estimate that most of those are set at 5,180 points on the CSI 1000 index.
From what i can gather, these derivatives hitting this level will likely trigger even stronger selling pressures on the Chinese market - causing the market to fall faster and harder. This moves it into potential CRASH territory.
This could tigger broad, citizen reactions against Xi and the govt, not the best situation for a communist tyrant - having to deal with rebellion at home.
Folks, even though this is the Chinese market, todays market economies are tightly integrated and a crash in one market will create tremors in other markets that will hit.
Japan –
(FO) Japanese government released an annual poll over the weekend showing growing animosity for China among the Japanese people.
- 86.7% “did not feel friendly” toward China, up from 81.8%.
- 68.2% said Sino-Japanese ties were important, a record low according to the government, down from 73.5%.
- 27.8% said Sino-Japanese ties were not important, an increase from 22.1%.
- All polls for Japanese-Korean relations were up from the previous year in the same survey.
OBSERVATION - Japanese people seem to be realizing that they are living in an increasingly hostile corner of the world.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Avdiivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
Russia is reportedly setting up S300 air defense systems around St Petersburg
Logistics –
The damage of the oil and gas terminal in Ust-Luga, Russia, is apparently worse than initially expected. According to analysts at the Moscow-based BCS brokerage it might take weeks, maybe even months, until the facility will return to significant capacity
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Warming trend bringing temps into the 40’s with rain/snow dropping back down to the 20-30s with snow towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 15 of 15 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 1 of 2 Kh-59 missiles, 5 of 12 ballistic Iskander-M missiles. Russia also launched 8 Kh-22 missiles, 4 S-300 missiles
7 Tu-22M3 are airborne over Lipetsk region this morning, could represent a second wave of missile attacks.
Russian Territory –
Explosions were reported in Briansk, possible Ukraine drone strike.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.
Europe / NATO General –
Sweden has now announced they are reactivating civilian conscription duty after the military warned that people need to “prepare for war”.
OBSERVATION - Many continue to scratch their heads at the sudden spike in European countries warning their populations to prepare for war - and to do so quickly. The sudden growth to 90,000 troops exercising in the largest war games since the end of the Cold War are adding to the hype. I find it hard to conceive that Russia could put together a larger, equipped military force than they had to invade Ukraine with to assault eastern European nations in any meaningful manner any time soon. The losses in men and equipment have been staggering. Europe OTOH is facing shortfalls now in their ammo stockpiles that could limit their defense. But that isn’t significant in the face of the current Russian army.
The only other potential option is that NATO / Europe is looking to counter attack Russia over its Ukraine war efforts.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF lost 24 soldiers - the biggest single loss of the conflict.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel has given Hamas a proposal that includes up to two months of a pause in the fighting as part of a multi-phase deal that would include the release of all remaining hostages held in Gaza, two Israeli officials says - Axios
OBSERVATION - There are reports that Hamas’ last stand in Khan Younis is beginning to crumble as more reports of mass surrenders start appearing again. They may become desperate enough to bite at this proposal if only to get some of the pressure off their forces and attempt to rearm and redeploy them. The alleged proposal has a lot of loopholes that hamas could use to gum the whole thing up and attempt to look like the good guys. However, i don’t think Hamas is desperate enough to go for it yet.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
24 IDF soldiers were killed in action yesterday (Monday) when an attack caused a two story building to collapsed on them.
Fierce battles are taking place as the IDF launches a new large offensive on the western Khan Younis area in the southern Gaza Strip. Four brigades, led by the 98th Division, are involved in the offensive, which began yesterday with a series of airstrikes on Hamas sites in the area
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
Israeli media reports that 3 missiles launched from southern Lebanon fell on open areas in the Western Galilee
———WEST BANK——————————-
Anti-terror operations continue, with Israeli security forces arresting more than 15 Palestinians in various parts of the West Bank
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Two missiles fell near the gas station in the city of Shuhail, east of Deir Ezzor, coming from areas controlled by Iranian militias. It is noteworthy that the Iranian militias launched a missile attack targeting the Al-Omar oil field, which is under the control of international coalition forces.
***
The US and UK carried out additional strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen on Monday, marking the eighth round of attacks by the US military in Yemen in just over 10 days, and the second time the US and UK have conducted these ops jointly.
U.S. Central Command said the eight targets ‘included missile systems and launchers, air defense systems, radars, and deeply buried weapons storage facilities.’
The sites are believed to be in the capital, Sanaa; at a nearby military base, al-Dailami; near the highland city of Taizz; and in Bayda province.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iran’s FM told IRNA in New York, “We’ve given a serious message and warning to America: the joint US-British attacks against areas in Yemen are a threat to peace and security in the region. It is an escalation of the scope of war.”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
Strikes on Houthi targets are supposed to be part of a sustained campaign. They will need to be continual and consistently hard for the Houthis to feel the pain. Houthis fought Saudi Arabia to a stalemate - the last time they faced modern air force interdictions. However, SA doesn’t have the same level of intel and sustainability that the US/UK can bring to the table, and for the initial moments, Houthis may be a little complacent in their position. US/UK have to hit hard and fast to catch these deployable drones and missiles while they are still in storage as finding them mobile is very difficult.
Iran’s threat may be an oblique one referring to the ballistic missile strike on an alleged Mossad facility in Iraq. Iran is reading weakness on the part of the US and that will encourage further attacks by Iran and its proxies.
Iran –
See threats against US under Israel above.
Syria -
East Syria - airstrikes destroyed this morning several vehicles near Abukemal (S. Deir Ezzor) after they arrived from Iraq.
NOTE - likely Iranian supported militia hit by US airstrike.
Black Swans -
New maps released by the U.S. Geological Survey show that a majority of the U.S. population lives in an area at risk for a damaging earthquake.
According to the USGS, 75% of the U.S. population lives in a locale that could be subject to “potentially damaging earthquakes and intense ground shaking.”
According to the report, 37 U.S. states have experienced earthquakes exceeding magnitude 5 on the Richter scale during the last 200 years.
While the U.S. West Coast was at greatest risk, parts of the Midwest and Northeast also faced significant risks from earthquakes.
At some odds with this model
https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/science/national-seismic-hazard-model
OBSERVATION - A few surprises caught my eye particularly for my area of the Redoubt. A zone I live in historically has been listed as pretty high threat. Yet that threat belt has moved 80 miles to the east into an area that hasn’t been listed as a high risk. I’ll have to look around to see what the justification for the modifications to the Intermountain Seismic Belt are.
Even Kalifornia, where I had to put up with quake threats for some time has changed, with a greater threat to the central valley/Sacramento region. Sac traditionally sat in an ‘eye’ of relative safety - see second link above. Protected from the big one in the Bay area by thick, valley fill deposits that would greatly attenuate the damaging surface shock waves and facing substantially smaller threats from fault zones in the foot hills to the east.
Given the current state of this country, a “Big One” could have amplified economic repercussions across the country, not just the hit zone.
But the bottom line is you have to make yourself aware of the natural threats around you, be they earthquakes, tornados, hurricanes or societal breakdown threats. Prepare accordingly.
**** NewYork is looking to follow Kalifornia in granting free health care to all illegals instate.
*** Illegals are forming up around their ethnic groups and tensions between groups are increasing as competition for housing and other resources are increasingly strained.
VP Harris gave an interview the other day - she feels the problem is slow processing and that citizenship need to be sped up for illegals. Is that 'out of touch' or what? I'll ping you to the piece...
Not out of touch but announcing the replacement goal
SMH today. So much of our society, and nation coming apart at the seams. Hard to keep one’s head up.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
La Phew - The French farmers are now SPRAYING MANURE on government buildings in protest.
Farmer protests growing to include Italy.
These protests are against new laws and taxes imposed to move their respective counties closer to the EU’s “net zero” carbon goals. Included are excessive fuel taxes and restrictions on chemicals/fertilizers and herd/flock sizes.
***
President of Singapore, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, speaking at the WEF’s annual Davos summit: “There is no realistic solution to the climate transition that does not involve a globally co-ordinated system of carbon taxes.”
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott says, after the Supreme Court’s ruling, that he will defend Texas constitutional authority to secure the southern border and that Texas will prevent the Biden administration from removing property. TX is receiving support from across most of the country for its stand.
In fact, TX doubled down by installing more fencing and reinforcing existing fences. DHS took no actions yesterday to try to access the fence(s). It is reported that TX stands ready to continue to deny BP/DHS unrestricted access to the Eagles Pass enclosure.
OBSERVATION - What will the regime do now?
***
The Mexican government wins their appeal in U.S. court and is able to proceed with the lawsuit against U.S. gun companies for supplying weapons to cartels that fuels the bloodshed south of the border.
OBSERVATION - This lawsuit heavily supported by leftist in the US is another effort to attack the 2d amendment by cutting off arms manufacturers.
***
Cernovich in an “X” post expresses a strong view of the stakes on the border.-
“I serve no man, my loyalty is to the country.
It’s Trump 2024 or the country faces a Rwandan style genocide once Democrats activate their gangs from the border.
Let no man deny the stakes.”
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted the threat from these military aged MEN, who are the primary illegals crossing the border, to cause havoc. But I never considered a Rwandan style uprising. Couple that with all the arms, ammunitions and kit the various alphabet agencies have been collecting over the last few years. . . . . Are the democrats that crazed to stay in control that they will initiate such a war?
***
Cross ref with Illegal Immigration -
Black residents of Chicago are fed up with how Mayor Brandon Johnson is running the city. So, they are suing him.
Democrat Mayor Johnson is black. Black voters in Chicago are staunchly Democrat voters. This is Democrats versus the top Democrat in a battle over who should get priority treatment as illegal aliens come into the city. The City of Chicago is trying to convert community centers and school buildings to shelter illegals. Two lawsuits by black Chicago residents have forced the city to abandon it plans to use community centers as shelters.
Truss is also angry that Mayor Johnson’s administration has spent more than $250M providing services for illegal aliens when her community is in poverty. She said that there is a humanitarian crisis in Chicago’s black community. Yet, when the community has a need, the city tells them there is no money.
OBSERVATION - Ive been noting increased friction between the existing welfare class in cities like Chicago and the flood of illegals that have swept them to the bottom of the feeding list for social welfare benefits. Chicago blacks have already threatened the DNCs national convention if things don’t change and fast. This is fast becoming another major fraction line being created in our society. The question is how soon before violence starts kicking in.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
An independent journalist interviewed an illegal after he crossed the border. When asked who he is, he gave the cryptic reply “America is soon going to know who he is”
That triggered internet sleuths into action and now we have a very firm identification of who this individual is. He is Movsum Samadov - leader of the banned Azerbaijan Islamist Party known for their anti-American and anti-Christian radical ideals.
He served a 12 year sentence for serious crimes and planning terrorist attacks . He was released in January 2023.
OBSERVATION - This is a huge red flag that an established islamic radical terrorist LEADER has walked into the US and threatens actions against the US. This begs the question - how many others like him have crossed?
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
*****
(FO) JPMorgan analysts use a combination of the New York Fed’s global supply chain pressure index (GSCPI) and their own analysis to project supply chain dislocations and prices, which consumers should feel by March.
The GSCPI includes measures like U.S. airfreight costs, delivery times for goods, and other measures, and the latest data suggests that supply chain pressures are near the historical norms.
However, the GSPI doesn’t incorporate container rates that have moved up sharply since December, according to JPM’s analysis.
OBSERVATION -Big on the unincorporated increased shipping costs are those generated due to the Houthi actions essentially closing the Suez Canal / Red Sea and forcing shipping around the Horn of Africa - something like 10 extra days and associated costs.
It will be interesting to see if this predictive tool has any real value. Look to see higher prices working their way thru the system and hitting us by March.
***
Goldman Sachs analysts forecast that the global copper deficit will be almost half a million tons in 2024 – about 2% of annual copper production – and this will cause prices to rise this year and nearly double by next year.
OBSERVATION - This doesn’t factor in the other metals that are mined. Copper mining has hit many roadblocks over the past few years, especially in key producing locations like Rep of Congo and world’s top producer, Chile. These resulting higher prices will ripple down through the economy in general - continuing to push inflation higher.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Northrop Grumman has the greenlight to begin producing the Pentagon’s newest bomber.
“Production of the B-21 ‘Raider’ stealth bomber is moving forward. This past fall, based on the results of ground and flight tests and the team’s mature plans for manufacturing, I gave the go-ahead to begin producing B-21s at a low rate,” William LaPlante, defense undersecretary for acquisition and sustainment, said in a Monday evening statement. “One of the key attributes of this program has been designing for production from the start – and at scale – to provide a credible deterrent to adversaries. If you don’t produce and field to warfighters at scale, the capability doesn’t really matter.”
The start of B-21 production was first reported by Bloomberg.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Trump won NH easily. 70% of the votes Haley received came from crossover democrats - NH is an open primary state. Haley vows to continue the campaign.
***
Arizona Republican Party chair Jeff DeWit was caught on secret recording trying to bribe Kari Lake not to run for the Senate.
“There are very powerful people who want to keep you out,” he said.
At one point during the secret recording, Lake was asked to name her “number.”
DeWit: “Just say, is there a number at which...”
Lake: “I can be bought? That’s what it’s about.”
DeWit: “You can take a pause for a couple of years. You can go right back to what you’re doing.”
Lake: “This is not about money, it’s about our country.”
OBSERVATION - Conversation confirmed by Lake. The outstanding question is who was bankrolling this payoff? Further, how many other ‘republicans’ across the nation have been bought out as well? This may soon become very explosive and we’ll have to see who starts falling out of windows.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Saw a skuttle butt discussion regarding how they think “mike’ 0bama will get the DNC nod to be the candidate for president instead of biden. Goes something like this -
biden remains the candidate thru to the convention. Any premature withdrawal will automatically make him a lame duck president and he’ll cease to be useful for his handlers.
At the convention - ‘mike’ will be back door brokered into the candidate slot.
Seems a stretch, but carries a degree of real possibility. Another potential switch instead of ‘mike’ would be newscum, who’s been running a stealth campaign for much of the last year. Harris will be tossed aside like the piece of rubbish she is, into political obscurity.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
According to data released by a new report by the Congressional Budget Office and delineated by RedState.com, the Biden administration has used a parole loophole in immigration law to release over 6 million illegal immigrants into the U.S. since Joe Biden took office in January 2021.
The number of illegal aliens entering the U.S. under Biden, equivalent to about the population of Tennessee, has increased each year of the Biden presidency.
“CBO estimates that, on net, the number of people immigrating to the United States was 1.2 million in 2021 and 2.7 million in 2022,” the report stated.
CBO report read: “Customs and Border Protection officials are encountering more people attempting to enter the United States and are releasing more of them into the country with humanitarian parole or with a notice to appear before an immigration judge, and more people are illegally entering the country without encountering Customs and Boarder Protection officials.”
OBSERVATION - Last week one of the democrats let slip that these illegals are here ‘legally’. The use of this loophole may be what was indirectly referred to. What this ‘parole’ does is uncertain, as it doesn’t give them a green card or other legal status, but does give the regimen cover for dumping them into the country without deportation until they can shoehorn in some kind of amnesty.
***
Breitbart is reporting that Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is quietly pressuring GOP Senators to promise their support for his border bill before it is released to the public for debate.
Multiple media reports say the still-secret bill is largely complete. But its release has been delayed until McConnell can lock in at least 20 of the 49 GOP Senators, perhaps by making minor changes.
The draft bill is also being reviewed by the Senate’s Committee on Appropriations because the Biden administration wants roughly $15 billion to operate its migration program in 2024. The money is needed by Democrats to process, transport, feed, house, and hide arriving 2024 migrants –and the 6.2 million migrants already admitted— during the run-up to the 2024 election.
OBSERVATION - What is McConnell getting out of this ‘deal’. He is certainly working to screw all americans - republicans and democrats - with this bill. IIRC, in an earlier post I found general outline of the bill. Big item is the essential amnesty of nearly all the illegal that have entered the country under biden. This is a new level of treason.
China –
A study involving US and Taiwanese see the most likely course of action that China towards China is a “law enforcement operation” led by non-military actors (e.g., China Coast Guard, maritime militia, etc.) that is focused on limiting the flow of commercial goods into Taiwan” This kind of blockade looks very similar to what China has been using against the Philippines in disputed regions.
This in effect would be a limited form of a blockade, some analysts think it could be effective in forcing concessions from Taiwan in a little as three months. The big question is what will the rest of the global community do? Taiwan is a big player in computer and related and with the tensions of a growing Chinese threat in the western Pacific, Japan, Australia, the US and other nations may force the issue.
It is further believed that China will likely seek to avoid anything further than this “law enforcement operation”, perhaps in part due to economic problems at home and troubles with military preparedness and leadership loyalty to Xi.
(FO)
North/South Korea –
North Korea fired several cruise missiles towards the Yellow Sea in the latest tension-raising move by the nuclear-armed state.
The missiles were launched at around 7am (10pm UK time on Tuesday) and were being analysed by South Korean and U.S. intelligence, Seoul said.
‘Our military detected several cruise missiles launched by North Korea towards the Yellow Sea at around 7:00 am today,’ the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.
The launches marked North Korea’s second known launch event of the year, following a January 14 flight test-firing of the country’s first solid-fuel intermediate range ballistic missile.
OBSERVATION - pretty much continued missile testing by NK.
Japan –
Japanese defense forces flew 555 fighter jet scrambles during the last nine months of 2023, according to the Joint Staff Office of Japan’s Ministry of Defense. The JSO said 98 percent of scrambles were against Chinese and Russian aircraft according to data released by the Ministry of Defense on Tuesday.
Chinese aircraft accounted for 392 scrambles (71 percent), a slight downtrend from 462 in the same timeframe in 2022. However, the JSO said the numbers were still higher than average for the last ten years. Russia saw a slight uptick prompting 148 scrambles (27 percent) compared to 133 for the same period in 2022. The JSO release also showed that the remaining scrambles for the period totaled 14 – a single scramble against Taiwan, two against North Korea and 12 against unspecified threats. Outside of aircraft, the Japanese Ministry of Defense had announced on Jul. 12 and Dec. 18 last year that Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) F-15J fighters had been scrambled in response to North Korean ballistic missile launches on those days. Overall.\, the JSDF saw a decrease of 57 scrambles from the same period in 2022 but officials said the 2023 numbers were considered to be high.
A map by the JSO on flight tracks showed the Chinese flight activity taking place largely around southwest Japan and off the east coast of Taiwan. Chinese activity in the Sea of Japan was limited to joint bomber flights with Russia. Russian aircraft mainly flew around Japan’s northern main island of Hokkaido and the Sea of Japan area off the main islands of Honshu and Hokkaido with slight tracks off southwest Japan and through the Miyako Strait, likely representing joint bomber flights with China.
OBSERVATION - Chinese as well as Russian games influencing Japan - most likely part of what is driving Japan to upgrade and expand its current military forces beyond their post WW2 levels.
Phillipines –
Next week, the President of the Philippine Islands (PI), Ferdinand Marcos Jr., will visit Hanoi, Vietnam, for a state visit where he will sign several treaties to enhance cooperation between the Philippines and Vietnam.
OBSERVATION - The Philippines are growing their treaty network in the face of Chinese aggression and Vietnam is a choice addition. Vietnam has had Chinese aggression toward islands in their control as well. Plus, Vietnam and China have been at odds over a number of other issues since the end of the war with the US.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Avdiivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
Russian cities continue to have power and heat related disasters that are leaving millions in the cold and dark.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Warming trend bringing temps into the 40’s with rain/snow dropping back down to the 20-30s with snow towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Overnight, a Russian Il-76 reportedly with 63 people on board crashed in Belgorod region, no survivors. Russia claims the passengers were Ukrainian POWs being brought in for an exchange. Other reports say the POW statement is false, that the Il-76 was carrying S300 missiles.
Belgorod was under an attack by Ukraine drones just hours earlier. Could this be another case of friendly fire? The plane was about 30 miles from the Ukraine border when hit.
Avdiivka -
Word coming out that Ukraine is experiencing severe artillery ammo shortages that Russia is exploiting. Over the past many months, Russia has been stymied in their attacks by abundant and accurate artillery and counter battery fire. These fires have dropped dramatically and enabling Russian meat attacks to gnaw away on the Ukraine defense lines, now starting to make real gains into the town itself.
Kherson Axis -
Ukraine’s drone superiority around the bridgehead area continues to be the bane of Russian forces trying to force them out. Ukraine has also developed a jamming system that is protecting its forces from similar attacks by Russia.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.
Continued ‘deep’ operations with exchanges of drone/missile fire.
Europe / NATO General –
Norway’s defense chief has become the latest senior military figure to warn that Europe has a matter of years to prepare for war against Russia.
Chief of the General Staff of the Norwegian Armed Forces Eirik Kristoffersen said the country’s military has a window of opportunity that “could last one, two, maybe three years” during which defense spending should be increased.
“But we are running out of time. I just want to emphasize this. We don’t know what will happen to Russia in three years. It is important for us to face an uncertain and unpredictable world with strong national defense,” said Kristoffersen
He stressed that Russia is building up its military potential “much faster than expected.”
Last week, the NATO defense chiefs met in Brussels where several emphasized the importance of countries in Europe increasing their readiness for an attack.
OBSERVATION - All of a sudden increased concern over Russia and war. What changed in the last couple weeks?
***
Turkey votes in favor of Sweden’s NATO membership after a delay of 20 months.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas yesterday rejected Israel’s offer of a cease fire
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Wall Street Journal, citing sources: Israel informed the United States of its intention to build a kilometer-wide buffer zone on the Gaza border.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli army spokesman: Many Hamas militants are hiding in sensitive areas (schools, mosques etc) and surprising our soldiers.
NOTE - This is similar to the US tactic of ‘going to ground’ - hiding out and letting the enemy pass, then striking their rear areas.
***
Large forces of the Israeli army’s 98th Division began a major offensive into western Khan Younis in southern Gaza on Monday, the IDF announced, following several days without reports about Israeli advancements in the fighting.
Overnight, the Israeli military says its ground forces have encircled Khan Younis, the southern Gaza Strip’s largest city.
Troops have also reportedly advanced deeper into remaining parts of the city, where they believe Hamas leaders are hiding in tunnels with hostages.
There was also intense fighting around the city’s two main hospitals. IDF is facing resistance from Hamas’s Khan Younis Brigade. It is considered to be one of the two strongest in the group, which is designated as a terrorist organization by Israel, the UK and other countries.
OBSERVATION - Remember, Hamas established a main command center beneath hospitals in N Gaza - no reason not to believe they have not done the same in S Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
***
A rocket barrage launched by the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon hit the Israel Air Force base on Mount Meron on Tuesday, causing light damage, Israel Defense Forces stated on Tuesday afternoon.
“There is no damage to the Air Force’s detection capabilities,” due to “the good skill of the forces and as part of the operational competence and backup through additional systems,” the IDF added.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Anti-terror operations continue, with Israeli security forces moving in and out of refugee centers to arrest Hamas affiliated terror subjects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iranian backed militias bombarded the American Coniko field base in Syria with rockets
Another attack reported tonight on the Ain Al-Assad airbase. Some reports of drones intercepted, but looks like impacts occurred too. Reports there may have been further casualties.
US airstrikes reported overnight against IRGC backed militias. Reports of casualties. This is a response to ongoing almost daily attacks against bases where U.S forces are located in Iraq and Syria. Local media reporting a command post and training centre in Babil also targeted in tonight’s airstrikes against IRGC backed militias.
***
The Yemeni army announces the downing of a drone belonging to the Houthi militia while it was flying towards military sites northwest of Al-Jawf
***
Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada Secretary General Abu Ala al-Wala calls for the Islamic Resistance to begin the second phase of response due to the airstrikes conducted this evening. The second phase includes imposing a blockade in the maritime sector for Israel in the Mediterranean Sea
***
U.S. CENTCOM Destroys Two Houthi Militants’ Anti-Ship Missiles. On Jan. 24 at approximately 2:30 a.m.(Sanaa time), U.S. Central Command forces conducted strikes against two Houthi anti-ship missiles that were aimed into the Southern Red Sea and were prepared to launch. U.S. forces identified the missiles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined that they presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and the U.S. Navy ships in the region. U.S. forces subsequently struck and destroyed the missiles in self-defense. This action will protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for U.S. Navy vessels and merchant vessels
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
US forces have not made a third major hit on Houthi targets - a lack of effort that may mean it is bailing on the ‘continual’ claim of the Poseidon operation. Fighter/bomber CAPs have had some success in targeting and destroying some Houthi launch vehicles as they prepare to fire, but you gotta do more.
In regards to the threat of closing off the Med to Israeli use and commerce - at this time i think it is largely rhetoric. If Hamas / Hezbollah and affiliated start targeting ships in the Med it will create a firestorm of response from European countries. I’m not sure that the puppet master - Iran - is ready for such a rapid expansion of the conflict. Nor do I think Lebanon will be favorably inclined to be the launching site for most of those drones/missiles.
Iraq -
The Iraqi government has strongly condemned US strikes which targeted sites used by Iranian-backed groups in Iraq on Wednesday.
A spokesperson for Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said they “blatantly” violated his country’s sovereignty.
The US said its “proportionate” attacks had targeted “Iran-affiliated groups”.
The paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) said the “treacherous” US action killed one of their fighters.
The PMF, which is dominated by Iran-backed Shia Muslim militias, said a number of other fighters were injured in strikes on their bases in al-Qaim, a town on the Syrian border in western Anbar province, and in Jurf al-Nasr, in the central province of Babil.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68077560?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA
Misc of Note –
Canada’s Federal Court released a ruling that found the Liberals’ decision to invoke the Emergencies Act against a trucker protest in 2022 was unreasonable & unjustified stating “We do not agree with this decision.” This has put the ruling liberal party on their heels and they are spinning rapidly to deflect criticism. The liberal party sleazed their way into power in the last elections and have been alienating themselves from the nation since. This court decision is reportedly going to be appealed, but the trend is against them.
Reminder that the trucker’s protest was against tyrannical wuhan jab requirements and resulted in truckers losing their jobs, bank accounts being seized and other punitive actions all under the guise of the ‘Emergency Act”
U.S. CENTCOM Destroys Two Houthi Militants’ Anti-Ship Missiles. On Jan. 24 at approximately 2:30 a.m.(Sanaa time), U.S. Central Command forces conducted strikes against two Houthi anti-ship missiles that were aimed into the Southern Red Sea and were prepared to launch. U.S. forces identified the missiles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined that they presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and the U.S. Navy ships in the region.
Might be time to buy those larger kitchen appliances you've been putting off buying...
Funny coz reading these sentences had me thinking I should get the new windows for my house BEFORE March, instead of during or after as I have been planning. lol
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