Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
WEF hits keep coming -
Klaus Schwab reportedly got up and walked out of room during Argentina President Milei’s speech at Davos attacking globalist power-hungry Elites according to Gateway pundit.
***
CEO Larry Fink speaking at the WEF forum.
“You have to FORCE behaviours, at Blackrock we are FORCING behaviours”
Blackrock essentially own every major corporation in the world & now determine capital investment through ESG (environmental social governance) this also applies to sovereign countries.
OBSERVATION - With its trillions of dollars of assets, BlackRock is THE force that the WEF looks to when forcing the private sector into compliance with their agenda. Fink is essentially saying that this private sector leverage is now working at a governmental level.
***
John Scott, Head of Sustainability, Zurich Insurance Group, recently indicated that people’s growing issues with paying for basic necessities is actually in some ways good as it helps with achieving harmony in meeting global decarbonization goals.
Scott explained this during a forum discussing the World Economic Forum’s recently published Global Risks Report 2024, on January 10th.
During a Q&A session discussing the findings in the report, Scott was asked about collaboration in tackling climate change and how its not keeping pace with the Paris Agreement, and was asked, “how do you see real collaboration that keeps up with the pace of the risks happening, given everything else that we are talking about with climate change?”
Scott had this to say:
[…] I think it’s just a reality that the world just doesn’t get organized by International cooperation anymore, you know it’s fragmented, it’s in flux.
[…] You know we talked about the cost of living crisis, you know some people’s, most people’s electricity bills are so high that they’re desperately trying to find some way of getting off the grid or removing themselves from the cost of purchasing electricity, so I think it’s these kind of things that you know it gives us some hope and optimism actually, that we can deal with some of these global risks when we see the global cooperation at an international level not really working so well.
OBSERVATION - People living in poverty cannot afford essentials like electricity and being denied that (among other things), they reduce consumption and its resulting carbon foot print. Essentially, they want you dirt poor.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. It has been reported that other states have sent personnel to support TX efforts along the border, and it is uncertain how many of these assets are in Eagle Pass. Any use of force by the Feds could send the tensions between red states and the regime into the red zone very fast.
***
Alex Soros is currently facing scrutiny due to his recent tweet sharing a post from the far-left The Atlantic that features a bullet hole and a sum of $47. This is seen as an obvious threat against President Trump
OBSERVATION - This is a continuation of the left’s fetish for an assassination of Trump and expanded - assassination of any conservative in a position of power. I don’t think I need to say the consequences of that action would be.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
The illegal lab found in California with Malaria, Dengue Fever, Hepatitis, HIV and Ebola. Was run by a Chinese man named Jia Bei Zhu who came here illegally. He has said he wants to “defeat the American aggressor”.
Fox News says “A recent bipartisan congressional report determined Zhu received significant financial payments from China”
Yet no charges have been filed.
From a Fox News story:
“Despite the probability that the unlabeled or coded vials contained additional unknown and dangerous pathogens, CDC officials refused to take any further investigative steps,” the report stated. It also claimed CDC officials failed to take “meaningful action” when presented with evidence that Ebola, classified at the highest level of concern, may have been present.”
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/01/more-on-the-chinese-biolab-in-california/
OBSERVATION - Nearly a year, and very little has been progressed on this story. The refusal of the different fed agencies to pursue this is disconcerting - almost deliberate cover up of a mega bio threat to the US. On the extreme end are rumors that “Disease X” is already in the country via this lab.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Reports of the development of a sustained campaign against the Houthi’s - See Israel below.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Threats to make the motion to vacate the Speakership seat continue to grow as Johnson continues to backtrack on numerous other promises besides those regarding the budget.
BTW, the CR comes due in March - right around Super Tuesday. Hmmm
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Avdiivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
What I initially thought was a Babylon Bee headline, now appears to be a legitimate one -
Putin has signed a decree making the sale of Alaska to the US illegal. territory is to be declared occupied
OBSERVATION - Still a lot of what the heck, but it seems to be trolling on a new level.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Warming trend bringing temps into the 40’s with rain/snow dropping back down to the 20-30s with snow towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 8 of 8 Shahed drones overnight.
Overall, activity along the fronts was reduced, except for the area around Avdiivak where Russia has continued to press its attacks.
Yesterday I noted an estimate that Russia was losing about 300 soldiers, dead or wounded, a day. It was noted that that number is one of the lower ones out there. Yes, there are higher ones and really higher ones, depending upon the propaganda factors included. High end results are often more than twice these numbers.
It is nearly impossible to get an accurate count given the inaccessibility to the dead bodies. For instance, thousands of Russian corpses lay across the no man’s land between Russian and Ukraine positions around Avdiivka. Both sides inflate opposition costs and minimize their own.
But lets face it - even at these lower numbers, the Russian war is a disaster for the Russians. The only way they are currently able to sustain it is through massive conscription efforts as well as draining penal colonies with promises of forgiveness.
Should have included the source being strategypage.com
F/U on the drone strike against the oil and gas terminals of Ust-Luga, all tanker loading operations have been suspended. Several fuel tankers are waiting near the Luga Bay.
Ust-Luga is Russia’s largest maritime terminal for crude oil exports.
The Novatek plant in Ust-Luga processes stable gas condensate, the final products being oil, kerosene, diesel fraction and fuel oil.
This was in its initial stages yesterday. Today we see a massive amount of destruction - one that will hit Russian exports in a major way. Additionally, Russian news is slamming the putin regime for allowing Ukraine drones to transit the country unopposed to hit the facility.
Today, Russia announced relocation of air defense assets to meet these new target sets.
Meanwhile, overnight, Ukrainian drone strike on Shcheglovsky Val military factory that produces Pantsir-S missile air defense systems in Tula.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.
Ukraine use of drones to effectively target Russian facilities continues to bear fruit. Russia has a big problem - too many juicy targets spread out over a large area. There are bound to be gaps in defenses that computer assisted, gps guided drones could exploit. Russia says they are going to redeploy assets to protect these facilities. Their problem is they only have so many systems available for use and any network will still be a patchwork. This being made worse by Ukraine’s priority of targeting air defense systems within the theater of operations. Daily reports I’ve seen show roughly as many air defense systems being killed daily as tanks. Russia doesnt have boneyards of ADA systems to pull from as they do tanks.
The St Petersburg attack on the Ust-Luga facility - once thought to be out of range for Ukrainian systems - means Russia has to reassess its defenses that are already getting stretched too thin.
Belarus -
“According to the new Military Doctrine, Belarus will consider an attack on its allies as an attack on its territory” — General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus
OBSERVATION - Its been a while since Belarus hit the radar screen, but this is a concerning one. While Belarus has been drilling and intensively training its forces over the course of the past couple years, many European analysts do not see it as an offensive threat. Political instability still is against the Belarus leadership and the inclinations of the forces are to reject getting involved in the Ukraine war. Regardless, the statement is a clear threat from the military - and not necessarily the civilian govt.
However, last year, fragment of the Wagner Group remained in Belarus with the mission to provide additional training and may have been focusing on altering the mindset of the officer corps of the army. Should Belarus join the fray, Ukraine at this stage would be in a world of hurt. Most of its assets are deployed along the southern and eastern fronts and trying to build up readiness for a winter offensive. Consideration of a Belarus threat has not been built into those plans. That could be changing.
ISRAEL –
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Sunday told representatives of Israeli hostage families that there are growing signs that they are hotter on the heels of Hamas’s top leadership and the hostages in Khan Yunis than they have been until now.
“Operations in Khan Yunis are at a high point, and there are early signs that are arriving at the most sensitive locations for Hamas are getting us closer to the two goals of the war,” said Gallant.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF has initiated the ground operation’s third stage, expected to be longer than its predecessors. This shift is towards more security oriented actions rather than the offensive search and destroy operations that have been going on.
While Israel states that N Gaza is under their control, Hamas and affiliated are still present and fighting with IDF forces.
Fiercest fighting continues to be in and around Khan Yunis.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
IAF striking targets deep within S Lebanon as well as along the border. Killed a Hezbollah leader overnight.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Kremlin announced the establishment of two additional military positions along the Syrian border. In this case, as well, Kulit issued the statement, claiming this was allegedly done to “monitor” the cease-fire, “due to the increased frequency of provocations in the region.”
This action, combined with the announcement of air patrols along the Syrian border are being conducted to limit Israel’s ability to attack Hezbollah and Iranian facilities in Syria.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Anti-terror operations continue, with Israeli security forces arresting more than 15 Palestinians in various parts of the West Bank
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi elements are seeking more weapons and in particular, more modern weapons to use against US and allied forces as they attempt to expand their attacks on shipping in the region.
The Washington Post reports that the U.S. is now crafting plans for a sustained military campaign targeting the Houthis in Yemen. U.S. officials believe the operation won’t bog down the military for years like in Afghanistan, but that a sustained bombing campaign will be needed
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Jordanian Foreign Minister: The only way to achieve security for all is the two-state solution
The Saudi Foreign Minister told CNN: It is necessary to establish a Palestinian state
Addressing the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, said on Tuesday that the American and British attacks on the Houthis can only worsen the security situation in the Red Sea and that the real solution to the security issues there is ceasing the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
According to Al Thani, the Western military intervention will neither bring an end to nor contain the Houthi attacks but will only escalate them, and the sole solution is to defuse the conflict in Gaza.
NOTE - Qatar is an open supporter of Hamas, being home to the three major leaders of the terror group - with all three being billionaires.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
The Houthi issue continues to grow with reports that the US is developing plans for a ‘sustained’ operation against them. The definition of ‘sustained’ is pretty loose and could be simply continuation of the hit and miss efforts to catch Houthi targets as they prepare to launch or it could mean a more substantial operation - major bombing campaign against the whole Houthi military infrastructure. The latter being the only one that would generated deterrence against further vessel attacks.
Houthi attacks, if expanded towards the Straits of Hormuz would meet one of Irans means of leveraging regional politics without being ‘directly’ involved in the action.
Any US actions against the Houthi (or Iran for that matter) has to be directed to be a knockout punch - all they need is one lucky shot and hit a US naval vessel.
Thanks
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
WEF hits keep coming -
They are coming for our coffee now
Swiss banker and World Economic Forum “agenda contributor”, Hubert Keller: “The coffee that we all drink emits between 15 and 20 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of coffee... Every time we drink coffee, we are basically putting CO2 into the atmosphere.”
I really don’t think they want to mess with us before our coffee. Never realized that Juan Valdez wandering up and down the coffee plantation with his burro picking coffee beans was that carbon intensive - darn burro farts
***
Angry French farmers are dumping waste on the train tracks, canceling rail travel between Bordeaux and Agen. Earlier today, French farmers blocked Highway A62 between Toulouse and Bordeaux in both directions of traffic.
Similar to their German counterparts, French farmers are fed up with crippling, globalist policies in the name of curbing climate change.
German protests are continuing - now over a week in duration.
Now the Scottish farmers have begun protesting.
OBSERVATION - The past several posts, I’ve noted the WEF in Davos targeting food production as a major source of pollutants contributing to global warming. Follow closely, global warming is going to reduce agriculture production and cause famines, therefore we need to drastically reduce agriculture production in order to avoid famines.
You’ll need a cup of coffee that they want banned as well to work thru that wonder logic.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues.
Our country is teetering on the edge of a new constitutional crisis.
Justices John Roberts and Amy Coney Barett, sided with the Biden administration, allowing Biden’s federal border agents to dismantle razor fencing set up by Texas agents to stop illegals immigrants entering America.
The vote was 5-4. The decision vacated a previous injunction from the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals that prevented federal agents from cutting the wire.
Both Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton will refuse to back down over the issue and will carry on fighting to secure the southern border from the waves of illegal immigration. How that continued fight manifests will be seen in the course of the next few days.
The case is ongoing in lower courts, the USSC decision overturns a restraining order prohibiting removal of fencing during the appeal processes.
Abbots and Paxton’s rebuke of the decision left inferences that border patrol may still have difficulties accessing TX installed barb wire fences. Some thoughts included they can cut it but will be denied access thru Texas console lands to get to it in order to cut it. Give the decision - there doesn’t appear any demand to permit BP to cross TX controlled lands. If TX uses that apparent loop hole, the potential for violence greatly increases at Eagle Pass, though there are other areas less secure.
Across the inter webs, the issue spread like wildfire in support of TX. Many look at this situation of one of the most severe cases of state vs fed powers since the civil war. Many are encouraging Abbot to prohibit access to the fence, with many other calls to go forward with the growing TEXIT movement to pull out of the union. As I noted before, this may stimulate other red states to become more aggressive in opposing the regime.
Border Patrol and other federal agents need to firmly be reminded that they are to support the constitution, and not a mad man bent on destroying this country via open borders. Choice time is coming quickly - who’s side are the going to be on.
Will Abbot refuse access? Today may be critical in the growing standoff.
***
The actions of pelosi’s J6 starchamber in deleting all records and files to their “inquiry “ has pushed this out of the realm of Politics and into CW2.
Republicans recover over 100 files deleted by Jan. 6 committee days before GOP took majority. Many of these files are encrypted and the previous committee is refusing to provide the passwords.
This is grossly illegal but done in a flaunting manner knowing that they are unlikely to face any criminal charges, let alone any congressional sanctions any time soon. This disregard further implies that they believe that Trump will not be elected and the WH remain under democrat/leftist controls - burying their transgressions further under political hubris.
The word on this is getting out - and it increases the perception of gross illegalities and fraud over the whole J6 scenario that has been painted. It was a staged, entrapment false flag designed to be turned against Trump and his followers. That narrative is increasingly becoming unraveled.
OBSERVATION - This apparent two tier standards for govt investigations - especially destroying documents that have/are being used to try J6 defendants is just feeding the fire that will come to fruition should things go sideways.
***
Pro - hamas protests have ebbed for now, potentially suggesting that organizers are evaluating how the recent protests have moved the dial on their goals. Most observers note that they generated more pushback to their cause than support. But OTOH, their protests are being set up to intimidate and not necessarily generate support.
Another note to watch is if things get spicy in TX, the Antifa rabble mob could swing their attention into pro-illegal actions.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) is now operating in U.S. 7th Fleet, USNI News has learned. The carrier chopped into the 7th Fleet area of operations over the weekend, a defense official confirmed to USNI News.
TR left Naval Station North Island in San Diego, Calif., on Jan. 11 for its deployment. It is accompanied by guided-missile cruiser USS Lake Erie (CG-70). No clear word on other accompanying vessels
It’s unclear where the carrier will go next. But with issues growing in the western Pacific and Persian Gulf region, chances are it may be headed there or put in position to respond quickly.
OBSERVATION - Spin up ahead of schedule of CSGs is an indicator of expected action - offensive or defensive, in the near to intermediate term.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
New Hampshire Primary today. Trump is expected to win easily.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Metropolitan areas filled with illegals are turning into literal cesspools. Near the former St. Brigid’s School on East 7th Street, and Tompkins Square Park urine and feces are all over the place, dumped there by illegals. Portapotties put in the neighborhood became so filthy that workers gave up on maintaining them, according to locals. This seems to be San Francisco by an order of magnitude.
****
NewYork is looking to follow Kalifornia in granting free health care to all illegals instate.
***
Illegals are forming up around their ethnic groups and tensions between groups are increasing as competition for housing and other resources are increasingly strained.
China –
Chinese stocks have crashed over the past several days. On last Friday, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index crashed 6.5% this week - its worst weekly loss since March 2023 with Wednesday seeing the biggest daily loss since Oct 2022 as the index plummeted to key support levels around the Oct 2022 lows.
Xi’s govt has so far held off making moves to support the market. China’s equivalent of the “plunge protection team” took some actions to suspended short selling for some clients in mainland markets.
Now the market is being threatened because the lowered values stand to trigger what are called “snowball derivatives”
According to Guotai Junan Futures, there are about 30 billion yuan ($4.2 billion) of snowball derivatives products tied to the CSI 1000 Index are near levels that trigger losses at maturity, according to Guotai Junan Futures Co, as the stock rout in #China’s stock market pushes the derivatives to near knock-in levels.
Another 60 billion yuan of the derivatives are 5%-10% away from their knock-in thresholds!
Finally, as Sino Market points out, most Snowball derivatives were opened from Feb to April 2023.
Since the downside knock-in put barriers are set to 75% or 80% of the spot price, dealers estimate that most of those are set at 5,180 points on the CSI 1000 index.
From what i can gather, these derivatives hitting this level will likely trigger even stronger selling pressures on the Chinese market - causing the market to fall faster and harder. This moves it into potential CRASH territory.
This could tigger broad, citizen reactions against Xi and the govt, not the best situation for a communist tyrant - having to deal with rebellion at home.
Folks, even though this is the Chinese market, todays market economies are tightly integrated and a crash in one market will create tremors in other markets that will hit.
Japan –
(FO) Japanese government released an annual poll over the weekend showing growing animosity for China among the Japanese people.
- 86.7% “did not feel friendly” toward China, up from 81.8%.
- 68.2% said Sino-Japanese ties were important, a record low according to the government, down from 73.5%.
- 27.8% said Sino-Japanese ties were not important, an increase from 22.1%.
- All polls for Japanese-Korean relations were up from the previous year in the same survey.
OBSERVATION - Japanese people seem to be realizing that they are living in an increasingly hostile corner of the world.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Avdiivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
Russia is reportedly setting up S300 air defense systems around St Petersburg
Logistics –
The damage of the oil and gas terminal in Ust-Luga, Russia, is apparently worse than initially expected. According to analysts at the Moscow-based BCS brokerage it might take weeks, maybe even months, until the facility will return to significant capacity
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Warming trend bringing temps into the 40’s with rain/snow dropping back down to the 20-30s with snow towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 15 of 15 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 1 of 2 Kh-59 missiles, 5 of 12 ballistic Iskander-M missiles. Russia also launched 8 Kh-22 missiles, 4 S-300 missiles
7 Tu-22M3 are airborne over Lipetsk region this morning, could represent a second wave of missile attacks.
Russian Territory –
Explosions were reported in Briansk, possible Ukraine drone strike.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.
Europe / NATO General –
Sweden has now announced they are reactivating civilian conscription duty after the military warned that people need to “prepare for war”.
OBSERVATION - Many continue to scratch their heads at the sudden spike in European countries warning their populations to prepare for war - and to do so quickly. The sudden growth to 90,000 troops exercising in the largest war games since the end of the Cold War are adding to the hype. I find it hard to conceive that Russia could put together a larger, equipped military force than they had to invade Ukraine with to assault eastern European nations in any meaningful manner any time soon. The losses in men and equipment have been staggering. Europe OTOH is facing shortfalls now in their ammo stockpiles that could limit their defense. But that isn’t significant in the face of the current Russian army.
The only other potential option is that NATO / Europe is looking to counter attack Russia over its Ukraine war efforts.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF lost 24 soldiers - the biggest single loss of the conflict.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel has given Hamas a proposal that includes up to two months of a pause in the fighting as part of a multi-phase deal that would include the release of all remaining hostages held in Gaza, two Israeli officials says - Axios
OBSERVATION - There are reports that Hamas’ last stand in Khan Younis is beginning to crumble as more reports of mass surrenders start appearing again. They may become desperate enough to bite at this proposal if only to get some of the pressure off their forces and attempt to rearm and redeploy them. The alleged proposal has a lot of loopholes that hamas could use to gum the whole thing up and attempt to look like the good guys. However, i don’t think Hamas is desperate enough to go for it yet.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
24 IDF soldiers were killed in action yesterday (Monday) when an attack caused a two story building to collapsed on them.
Fierce battles are taking place as the IDF launches a new large offensive on the western Khan Younis area in the southern Gaza Strip. Four brigades, led by the 98th Division, are involved in the offensive, which began yesterday with a series of airstrikes on Hamas sites in the area
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
Israeli media reports that 3 missiles launched from southern Lebanon fell on open areas in the Western Galilee
———WEST BANK——————————-
Anti-terror operations continue, with Israeli security forces arresting more than 15 Palestinians in various parts of the West Bank
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Two missiles fell near the gas station in the city of Shuhail, east of Deir Ezzor, coming from areas controlled by Iranian militias. It is noteworthy that the Iranian militias launched a missile attack targeting the Al-Omar oil field, which is under the control of international coalition forces.
***
The US and UK carried out additional strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen on Monday, marking the eighth round of attacks by the US military in Yemen in just over 10 days, and the second time the US and UK have conducted these ops jointly.
U.S. Central Command said the eight targets ‘included missile systems and launchers, air defense systems, radars, and deeply buried weapons storage facilities.’
The sites are believed to be in the capital, Sanaa; at a nearby military base, al-Dailami; near the highland city of Taizz; and in Bayda province.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iran’s FM told IRNA in New York, “We’ve given a serious message and warning to America: the joint US-British attacks against areas in Yemen are a threat to peace and security in the region. It is an escalation of the scope of war.”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
Strikes on Houthi targets are supposed to be part of a sustained campaign. They will need to be continual and consistently hard for the Houthis to feel the pain. Houthis fought Saudi Arabia to a stalemate - the last time they faced modern air force interdictions. However, SA doesn’t have the same level of intel and sustainability that the US/UK can bring to the table, and for the initial moments, Houthis may be a little complacent in their position. US/UK have to hit hard and fast to catch these deployable drones and missiles while they are still in storage as finding them mobile is very difficult.
Iran’s threat may be an oblique one referring to the ballistic missile strike on an alleged Mossad facility in Iraq. Iran is reading weakness on the part of the US and that will encourage further attacks by Iran and its proxies.
Iran –
See threats against US under Israel above.
Syria -
East Syria - airstrikes destroyed this morning several vehicles near Abukemal (S. Deir Ezzor) after they arrived from Iraq.
NOTE - likely Iranian supported militia hit by US airstrike.
Black Swans -
New maps released by the U.S. Geological Survey show that a majority of the U.S. population lives in an area at risk for a damaging earthquake.
According to the USGS, 75% of the U.S. population lives in a locale that could be subject to “potentially damaging earthquakes and intense ground shaking.”
According to the report, 37 U.S. states have experienced earthquakes exceeding magnitude 5 on the Richter scale during the last 200 years.
While the U.S. West Coast was at greatest risk, parts of the Midwest and Northeast also faced significant risks from earthquakes.
At some odds with this model
https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/science/national-seismic-hazard-model
OBSERVATION - A few surprises caught my eye particularly for my area of the Redoubt. A zone I live in historically has been listed as pretty high threat. Yet that threat belt has moved 80 miles to the east into an area that hasn’t been listed as a high risk. I’ll have to look around to see what the justification for the modifications to the Intermountain Seismic Belt are.
Even Kalifornia, where I had to put up with quake threats for some time has changed, with a greater threat to the central valley/Sacramento region. Sac traditionally sat in an ‘eye’ of relative safety - see second link above. Protected from the big one in the Bay area by thick, valley fill deposits that would greatly attenuate the damaging surface shock waves and facing substantially smaller threats from fault zones in the foot hills to the east.
Given the current state of this country, a “Big One” could have amplified economic repercussions across the country, not just the hit zone.
But the bottom line is you have to make yourself aware of the natural threats around you, be they earthquakes, tornados, hurricanes or societal breakdown threats. Prepare accordingly.