Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
WEF hits keep coming -
They are coming for our coffee now
Swiss banker and World Economic Forum “agenda contributor”, Hubert Keller: “The coffee that we all drink emits between 15 and 20 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of coffee... Every time we drink coffee, we are basically putting CO2 into the atmosphere.”
I really don’t think they want to mess with us before our coffee. Never realized that Juan Valdez wandering up and down the coffee plantation with his burro picking coffee beans was that carbon intensive - darn burro farts
***
Angry French farmers are dumping waste on the train tracks, canceling rail travel between Bordeaux and Agen. Earlier today, French farmers blocked Highway A62 between Toulouse and Bordeaux in both directions of traffic.
Similar to their German counterparts, French farmers are fed up with crippling, globalist policies in the name of curbing climate change.
German protests are continuing - now over a week in duration.
Now the Scottish farmers have begun protesting.
OBSERVATION - The past several posts, I’ve noted the WEF in Davos targeting food production as a major source of pollutants contributing to global warming. Follow closely, global warming is going to reduce agriculture production and cause famines, therefore we need to drastically reduce agriculture production in order to avoid famines.
You’ll need a cup of coffee that they want banned as well to work thru that wonder logic.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues.
Our country is teetering on the edge of a new constitutional crisis.
Justices John Roberts and Amy Coney Barett, sided with the Biden administration, allowing Biden’s federal border agents to dismantle razor fencing set up by Texas agents to stop illegals immigrants entering America.
The vote was 5-4. The decision vacated a previous injunction from the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals that prevented federal agents from cutting the wire.
Both Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton will refuse to back down over the issue and will carry on fighting to secure the southern border from the waves of illegal immigration. How that continued fight manifests will be seen in the course of the next few days.
The case is ongoing in lower courts, the USSC decision overturns a restraining order prohibiting removal of fencing during the appeal processes.
Abbots and Paxton’s rebuke of the decision left inferences that border patrol may still have difficulties accessing TX installed barb wire fences. Some thoughts included they can cut it but will be denied access thru Texas console lands to get to it in order to cut it. Give the decision - there doesn’t appear any demand to permit BP to cross TX controlled lands. If TX uses that apparent loop hole, the potential for violence greatly increases at Eagle Pass, though there are other areas less secure.
Across the inter webs, the issue spread like wildfire in support of TX. Many look at this situation of one of the most severe cases of state vs fed powers since the civil war. Many are encouraging Abbot to prohibit access to the fence, with many other calls to go forward with the growing TEXIT movement to pull out of the union. As I noted before, this may stimulate other red states to become more aggressive in opposing the regime.
Border Patrol and other federal agents need to firmly be reminded that they are to support the constitution, and not a mad man bent on destroying this country via open borders. Choice time is coming quickly - who’s side are the going to be on.
Will Abbot refuse access? Today may be critical in the growing standoff.
***
The actions of pelosi’s J6 starchamber in deleting all records and files to their “inquiry “ has pushed this out of the realm of Politics and into CW2.
Republicans recover over 100 files deleted by Jan. 6 committee days before GOP took majority. Many of these files are encrypted and the previous committee is refusing to provide the passwords.
This is grossly illegal but done in a flaunting manner knowing that they are unlikely to face any criminal charges, let alone any congressional sanctions any time soon. This disregard further implies that they believe that Trump will not be elected and the WH remain under democrat/leftist controls - burying their transgressions further under political hubris.
The word on this is getting out - and it increases the perception of gross illegalities and fraud over the whole J6 scenario that has been painted. It was a staged, entrapment false flag designed to be turned against Trump and his followers. That narrative is increasingly becoming unraveled.
OBSERVATION - This apparent two tier standards for govt investigations - especially destroying documents that have/are being used to try J6 defendants is just feeding the fire that will come to fruition should things go sideways.
***
Pro - hamas protests have ebbed for now, potentially suggesting that organizers are evaluating how the recent protests have moved the dial on their goals. Most observers note that they generated more pushback to their cause than support. But OTOH, their protests are being set up to intimidate and not necessarily generate support.
Another note to watch is if things get spicy in TX, the Antifa rabble mob could swing their attention into pro-illegal actions.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) is now operating in U.S. 7th Fleet, USNI News has learned. The carrier chopped into the 7th Fleet area of operations over the weekend, a defense official confirmed to USNI News.
TR left Naval Station North Island in San Diego, Calif., on Jan. 11 for its deployment. It is accompanied by guided-missile cruiser USS Lake Erie (CG-70). No clear word on other accompanying vessels
It’s unclear where the carrier will go next. But with issues growing in the western Pacific and Persian Gulf region, chances are it may be headed there or put in position to respond quickly.
OBSERVATION - Spin up ahead of schedule of CSGs is an indicator of expected action - offensive or defensive, in the near to intermediate term.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
New Hampshire Primary today. Trump is expected to win easily.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
Metropolitan areas filled with illegals are turning into literal cesspools. Near the former St. Brigid’s School on East 7th Street, and Tompkins Square Park urine and feces are all over the place, dumped there by illegals. Portapotties put in the neighborhood became so filthy that workers gave up on maintaining them, according to locals. This seems to be San Francisco by an order of magnitude.
****
NewYork is looking to follow Kalifornia in granting free health care to all illegals instate.
***
Illegals are forming up around their ethnic groups and tensions between groups are increasing as competition for housing and other resources are increasingly strained.
China –
Chinese stocks have crashed over the past several days. On last Friday, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index crashed 6.5% this week - its worst weekly loss since March 2023 with Wednesday seeing the biggest daily loss since Oct 2022 as the index plummeted to key support levels around the Oct 2022 lows.
Xi’s govt has so far held off making moves to support the market. China’s equivalent of the “plunge protection team” took some actions to suspended short selling for some clients in mainland markets.
Now the market is being threatened because the lowered values stand to trigger what are called “snowball derivatives”
According to Guotai Junan Futures, there are about 30 billion yuan ($4.2 billion) of snowball derivatives products tied to the CSI 1000 Index are near levels that trigger losses at maturity, according to Guotai Junan Futures Co, as the stock rout in #China’s stock market pushes the derivatives to near knock-in levels.
Another 60 billion yuan of the derivatives are 5%-10% away from their knock-in thresholds!
Finally, as Sino Market points out, most Snowball derivatives were opened from Feb to April 2023.
Since the downside knock-in put barriers are set to 75% or 80% of the spot price, dealers estimate that most of those are set at 5,180 points on the CSI 1000 index.
From what i can gather, these derivatives hitting this level will likely trigger even stronger selling pressures on the Chinese market - causing the market to fall faster and harder. This moves it into potential CRASH territory.
This could tigger broad, citizen reactions against Xi and the govt, not the best situation for a communist tyrant - having to deal with rebellion at home.
Folks, even though this is the Chinese market, todays market economies are tightly integrated and a crash in one market will create tremors in other markets that will hit.
Japan –
(FO) Japanese government released an annual poll over the weekend showing growing animosity for China among the Japanese people.
- 86.7% “did not feel friendly” toward China, up from 81.8%.
- 68.2% said Sino-Japanese ties were important, a record low according to the government, down from 73.5%.
- 27.8% said Sino-Japanese ties were not important, an increase from 22.1%.
- All polls for Japanese-Korean relations were up from the previous year in the same survey.
OBSERVATION - Japanese people seem to be realizing that they are living in an increasingly hostile corner of the world.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Avdiivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
Russia is reportedly setting up S300 air defense systems around St Petersburg
Logistics –
The damage of the oil and gas terminal in Ust-Luga, Russia, is apparently worse than initially expected. According to analysts at the Moscow-based BCS brokerage it might take weeks, maybe even months, until the facility will return to significant capacity
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Warming trend bringing temps into the 40’s with rain/snow dropping back down to the 20-30s with snow towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 15 of 15 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 1 of 2 Kh-59 missiles, 5 of 12 ballistic Iskander-M missiles. Russia also launched 8 Kh-22 missiles, 4 S-300 missiles
7 Tu-22M3 are airborne over Lipetsk region this morning, could represent a second wave of missile attacks.
Russian Territory –
Explosions were reported in Briansk, possible Ukraine drone strike.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.
Europe / NATO General –
Sweden has now announced they are reactivating civilian conscription duty after the military warned that people need to “prepare for war”.
OBSERVATION - Many continue to scratch their heads at the sudden spike in European countries warning their populations to prepare for war - and to do so quickly. The sudden growth to 90,000 troops exercising in the largest war games since the end of the Cold War are adding to the hype. I find it hard to conceive that Russia could put together a larger, equipped military force than they had to invade Ukraine with to assault eastern European nations in any meaningful manner any time soon. The losses in men and equipment have been staggering. Europe OTOH is facing shortfalls now in their ammo stockpiles that could limit their defense. But that isn’t significant in the face of the current Russian army.
The only other potential option is that NATO / Europe is looking to counter attack Russia over its Ukraine war efforts.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF lost 24 soldiers - the biggest single loss of the conflict.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel has given Hamas a proposal that includes up to two months of a pause in the fighting as part of a multi-phase deal that would include the release of all remaining hostages held in Gaza, two Israeli officials says - Axios
OBSERVATION - There are reports that Hamas’ last stand in Khan Younis is beginning to crumble as more reports of mass surrenders start appearing again. They may become desperate enough to bite at this proposal if only to get some of the pressure off their forces and attempt to rearm and redeploy them. The alleged proposal has a lot of loopholes that hamas could use to gum the whole thing up and attempt to look like the good guys. However, i don’t think Hamas is desperate enough to go for it yet.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
24 IDF soldiers were killed in action yesterday (Monday) when an attack caused a two story building to collapsed on them.
Fierce battles are taking place as the IDF launches a new large offensive on the western Khan Younis area in the southern Gaza Strip. Four brigades, led by the 98th Division, are involved in the offensive, which began yesterday with a series of airstrikes on Hamas sites in the area
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
Israeli media reports that 3 missiles launched from southern Lebanon fell on open areas in the Western Galilee
———WEST BANK——————————-
Anti-terror operations continue, with Israeli security forces arresting more than 15 Palestinians in various parts of the West Bank
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Two missiles fell near the gas station in the city of Shuhail, east of Deir Ezzor, coming from areas controlled by Iranian militias. It is noteworthy that the Iranian militias launched a missile attack targeting the Al-Omar oil field, which is under the control of international coalition forces.
***
The US and UK carried out additional strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen on Monday, marking the eighth round of attacks by the US military in Yemen in just over 10 days, and the second time the US and UK have conducted these ops jointly.
U.S. Central Command said the eight targets ‘included missile systems and launchers, air defense systems, radars, and deeply buried weapons storage facilities.’
The sites are believed to be in the capital, Sanaa; at a nearby military base, al-Dailami; near the highland city of Taizz; and in Bayda province.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Iran’s FM told IRNA in New York, “We’ve given a serious message and warning to America: the joint US-British attacks against areas in Yemen are a threat to peace and security in the region. It is an escalation of the scope of war.”
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
Strikes on Houthi targets are supposed to be part of a sustained campaign. They will need to be continual and consistently hard for the Houthis to feel the pain. Houthis fought Saudi Arabia to a stalemate - the last time they faced modern air force interdictions. However, SA doesn’t have the same level of intel and sustainability that the US/UK can bring to the table, and for the initial moments, Houthis may be a little complacent in their position. US/UK have to hit hard and fast to catch these deployable drones and missiles while they are still in storage as finding them mobile is very difficult.
Iran’s threat may be an oblique one referring to the ballistic missile strike on an alleged Mossad facility in Iraq. Iran is reading weakness on the part of the US and that will encourage further attacks by Iran and its proxies.
Iran –
See threats against US under Israel above.
Syria -
East Syria - airstrikes destroyed this morning several vehicles near Abukemal (S. Deir Ezzor) after they arrived from Iraq.
NOTE - likely Iranian supported militia hit by US airstrike.
Black Swans -
New maps released by the U.S. Geological Survey show that a majority of the U.S. population lives in an area at risk for a damaging earthquake.
According to the USGS, 75% of the U.S. population lives in a locale that could be subject to “potentially damaging earthquakes and intense ground shaking.”
According to the report, 37 U.S. states have experienced earthquakes exceeding magnitude 5 on the Richter scale during the last 200 years.
While the U.S. West Coast was at greatest risk, parts of the Midwest and Northeast also faced significant risks from earthquakes.
At some odds with this model
https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/science/national-seismic-hazard-model
OBSERVATION - A few surprises caught my eye particularly for my area of the Redoubt. A zone I live in historically has been listed as pretty high threat. Yet that threat belt has moved 80 miles to the east into an area that hasn’t been listed as a high risk. I’ll have to look around to see what the justification for the modifications to the Intermountain Seismic Belt are.
Even Kalifornia, where I had to put up with quake threats for some time has changed, with a greater threat to the central valley/Sacramento region. Sac traditionally sat in an ‘eye’ of relative safety - see second link above. Protected from the big one in the Bay area by thick, valley fill deposits that would greatly attenuate the damaging surface shock waves and facing substantially smaller threats from fault zones in the foot hills to the east.
Given the current state of this country, a “Big One” could have amplified economic repercussions across the country, not just the hit zone.
But the bottom line is you have to make yourself aware of the natural threats around you, be they earthquakes, tornados, hurricanes or societal breakdown threats. Prepare accordingly.
**** NewYork is looking to follow Kalifornia in granting free health care to all illegals instate.
*** Illegals are forming up around their ethnic groups and tensions between groups are increasing as competition for housing and other resources are increasingly strained.
VP Harris gave an interview the other day - she feels the problem is slow processing and that citizenship need to be sped up for illegals. Is that 'out of touch' or what? I'll ping you to the piece...
SMH today. So much of our society, and nation coming apart at the seams. Hard to keep one’s head up.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
La Phew - The French farmers are now SPRAYING MANURE on government buildings in protest.
Farmer protests growing to include Italy.
These protests are against new laws and taxes imposed to move their respective counties closer to the EU’s “net zero” carbon goals. Included are excessive fuel taxes and restrictions on chemicals/fertilizers and herd/flock sizes.
***
President of Singapore, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, speaking at the WEF’s annual Davos summit: “There is no realistic solution to the climate transition that does not involve a globally co-ordinated system of carbon taxes.”
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott says, after the Supreme Court’s ruling, that he will defend Texas constitutional authority to secure the southern border and that Texas will prevent the Biden administration from removing property. TX is receiving support from across most of the country for its stand.
In fact, TX doubled down by installing more fencing and reinforcing existing fences. DHS took no actions yesterday to try to access the fence(s). It is reported that TX stands ready to continue to deny BP/DHS unrestricted access to the Eagles Pass enclosure.
OBSERVATION - What will the regime do now?
***
The Mexican government wins their appeal in U.S. court and is able to proceed with the lawsuit against U.S. gun companies for supplying weapons to cartels that fuels the bloodshed south of the border.
OBSERVATION - This lawsuit heavily supported by leftist in the US is another effort to attack the 2d amendment by cutting off arms manufacturers.
***
Cernovich in an “X” post expresses a strong view of the stakes on the border.-
“I serve no man, my loyalty is to the country.
It’s Trump 2024 or the country faces a Rwandan style genocide once Democrats activate their gangs from the border.
Let no man deny the stakes.”
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted the threat from these military aged MEN, who are the primary illegals crossing the border, to cause havoc. But I never considered a Rwandan style uprising. Couple that with all the arms, ammunitions and kit the various alphabet agencies have been collecting over the last few years. . . . . Are the democrats that crazed to stay in control that they will initiate such a war?
***
Cross ref with Illegal Immigration -
Black residents of Chicago are fed up with how Mayor Brandon Johnson is running the city. So, they are suing him.
Democrat Mayor Johnson is black. Black voters in Chicago are staunchly Democrat voters. This is Democrats versus the top Democrat in a battle over who should get priority treatment as illegal aliens come into the city. The City of Chicago is trying to convert community centers and school buildings to shelter illegals. Two lawsuits by black Chicago residents have forced the city to abandon it plans to use community centers as shelters.
Truss is also angry that Mayor Johnson’s administration has spent more than $250M providing services for illegal aliens when her community is in poverty. She said that there is a humanitarian crisis in Chicago’s black community. Yet, when the community has a need, the city tells them there is no money.
OBSERVATION - Ive been noting increased friction between the existing welfare class in cities like Chicago and the flood of illegals that have swept them to the bottom of the feeding list for social welfare benefits. Chicago blacks have already threatened the DNCs national convention if things don’t change and fast. This is fast becoming another major fraction line being created in our society. The question is how soon before violence starts kicking in.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
An independent journalist interviewed an illegal after he crossed the border. When asked who he is, he gave the cryptic reply “America is soon going to know who he is”
That triggered internet sleuths into action and now we have a very firm identification of who this individual is. He is Movsum Samadov - leader of the banned Azerbaijan Islamist Party known for their anti-American and anti-Christian radical ideals.
He served a 12 year sentence for serious crimes and planning terrorist attacks . He was released in January 2023.
OBSERVATION - This is a huge red flag that an established islamic radical terrorist LEADER has walked into the US and threatens actions against the US. This begs the question - how many others like him have crossed?
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
*****
(FO) JPMorgan analysts use a combination of the New York Fed’s global supply chain pressure index (GSCPI) and their own analysis to project supply chain dislocations and prices, which consumers should feel by March.
The GSCPI includes measures like U.S. airfreight costs, delivery times for goods, and other measures, and the latest data suggests that supply chain pressures are near the historical norms.
However, the GSPI doesn’t incorporate container rates that have moved up sharply since December, according to JPM’s analysis.
OBSERVATION -Big on the unincorporated increased shipping costs are those generated due to the Houthi actions essentially closing the Suez Canal / Red Sea and forcing shipping around the Horn of Africa - something like 10 extra days and associated costs.
It will be interesting to see if this predictive tool has any real value. Look to see higher prices working their way thru the system and hitting us by March.
***
Goldman Sachs analysts forecast that the global copper deficit will be almost half a million tons in 2024 – about 2% of annual copper production – and this will cause prices to rise this year and nearly double by next year.
OBSERVATION - This doesn’t factor in the other metals that are mined. Copper mining has hit many roadblocks over the past few years, especially in key producing locations like Rep of Congo and world’s top producer, Chile. These resulting higher prices will ripple down through the economy in general - continuing to push inflation higher.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Northrop Grumman has the greenlight to begin producing the Pentagon’s newest bomber.
“Production of the B-21 ‘Raider’ stealth bomber is moving forward. This past fall, based on the results of ground and flight tests and the team’s mature plans for manufacturing, I gave the go-ahead to begin producing B-21s at a low rate,” William LaPlante, defense undersecretary for acquisition and sustainment, said in a Monday evening statement. “One of the key attributes of this program has been designing for production from the start – and at scale – to provide a credible deterrent to adversaries. If you don’t produce and field to warfighters at scale, the capability doesn’t really matter.”
The start of B-21 production was first reported by Bloomberg.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Trump won NH easily. 70% of the votes Haley received came from crossover democrats - NH is an open primary state. Haley vows to continue the campaign.
***
Arizona Republican Party chair Jeff DeWit was caught on secret recording trying to bribe Kari Lake not to run for the Senate.
“There are very powerful people who want to keep you out,” he said.
At one point during the secret recording, Lake was asked to name her “number.”
DeWit: “Just say, is there a number at which...”
Lake: “I can be bought? That’s what it’s about.”
DeWit: “You can take a pause for a couple of years. You can go right back to what you’re doing.”
Lake: “This is not about money, it’s about our country.”
OBSERVATION - Conversation confirmed by Lake. The outstanding question is who was bankrolling this payoff? Further, how many other ‘republicans’ across the nation have been bought out as well? This may soon become very explosive and we’ll have to see who starts falling out of windows.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Saw a skuttle butt discussion regarding how they think “mike’ 0bama will get the DNC nod to be the candidate for president instead of biden. Goes something like this -
biden remains the candidate thru to the convention. Any premature withdrawal will automatically make him a lame duck president and he’ll cease to be useful for his handlers.
At the convention - ‘mike’ will be back door brokered into the candidate slot.
Seems a stretch, but carries a degree of real possibility. Another potential switch instead of ‘mike’ would be newscum, who’s been running a stealth campaign for much of the last year. Harris will be tossed aside like the piece of rubbish she is, into political obscurity.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
According to data released by a new report by the Congressional Budget Office and delineated by RedState.com, the Biden administration has used a parole loophole in immigration law to release over 6 million illegal immigrants into the U.S. since Joe Biden took office in January 2021.
The number of illegal aliens entering the U.S. under Biden, equivalent to about the population of Tennessee, has increased each year of the Biden presidency.
“CBO estimates that, on net, the number of people immigrating to the United States was 1.2 million in 2021 and 2.7 million in 2022,” the report stated.
CBO report read: “Customs and Border Protection officials are encountering more people attempting to enter the United States and are releasing more of them into the country with humanitarian parole or with a notice to appear before an immigration judge, and more people are illegally entering the country without encountering Customs and Boarder Protection officials.”
OBSERVATION - Last week one of the democrats let slip that these illegals are here ‘legally’. The use of this loophole may be what was indirectly referred to. What this ‘parole’ does is uncertain, as it doesn’t give them a green card or other legal status, but does give the regimen cover for dumping them into the country without deportation until they can shoehorn in some kind of amnesty.
***
Breitbart is reporting that Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is quietly pressuring GOP Senators to promise their support for his border bill before it is released to the public for debate.
Multiple media reports say the still-secret bill is largely complete. But its release has been delayed until McConnell can lock in at least 20 of the 49 GOP Senators, perhaps by making minor changes.
The draft bill is also being reviewed by the Senate’s Committee on Appropriations because the Biden administration wants roughly $15 billion to operate its migration program in 2024. The money is needed by Democrats to process, transport, feed, house, and hide arriving 2024 migrants –and the 6.2 million migrants already admitted— during the run-up to the 2024 election.
OBSERVATION - What is McConnell getting out of this ‘deal’. He is certainly working to screw all americans - republicans and democrats - with this bill. IIRC, in an earlier post I found general outline of the bill. Big item is the essential amnesty of nearly all the illegal that have entered the country under biden. This is a new level of treason.
China –
A study involving US and Taiwanese see the most likely course of action that China towards China is a “law enforcement operation” led by non-military actors (e.g., China Coast Guard, maritime militia, etc.) that is focused on limiting the flow of commercial goods into Taiwan” This kind of blockade looks very similar to what China has been using against the Philippines in disputed regions.
This in effect would be a limited form of a blockade, some analysts think it could be effective in forcing concessions from Taiwan in a little as three months. The big question is what will the rest of the global community do? Taiwan is a big player in computer and related and with the tensions of a growing Chinese threat in the western Pacific, Japan, Australia, the US and other nations may force the issue.
It is further believed that China will likely seek to avoid anything further than this “law enforcement operation”, perhaps in part due to economic problems at home and troubles with military preparedness and leadership loyalty to Xi.
(FO)
North/South Korea –
North Korea fired several cruise missiles towards the Yellow Sea in the latest tension-raising move by the nuclear-armed state.
The missiles were launched at around 7am (10pm UK time on Tuesday) and were being analysed by South Korean and U.S. intelligence, Seoul said.
‘Our military detected several cruise missiles launched by North Korea towards the Yellow Sea at around 7:00 am today,’ the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.
The launches marked North Korea’s second known launch event of the year, following a January 14 flight test-firing of the country’s first solid-fuel intermediate range ballistic missile.
OBSERVATION - pretty much continued missile testing by NK.
Japan –
Japanese defense forces flew 555 fighter jet scrambles during the last nine months of 2023, according to the Joint Staff Office of Japan’s Ministry of Defense. The JSO said 98 percent of scrambles were against Chinese and Russian aircraft according to data released by the Ministry of Defense on Tuesday.
Chinese aircraft accounted for 392 scrambles (71 percent), a slight downtrend from 462 in the same timeframe in 2022. However, the JSO said the numbers were still higher than average for the last ten years. Russia saw a slight uptick prompting 148 scrambles (27 percent) compared to 133 for the same period in 2022. The JSO release also showed that the remaining scrambles for the period totaled 14 – a single scramble against Taiwan, two against North Korea and 12 against unspecified threats. Outside of aircraft, the Japanese Ministry of Defense had announced on Jul. 12 and Dec. 18 last year that Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) F-15J fighters had been scrambled in response to North Korean ballistic missile launches on those days. Overall.\, the JSDF saw a decrease of 57 scrambles from the same period in 2022 but officials said the 2023 numbers were considered to be high.
A map by the JSO on flight tracks showed the Chinese flight activity taking place largely around southwest Japan and off the east coast of Taiwan. Chinese activity in the Sea of Japan was limited to joint bomber flights with Russia. Russian aircraft mainly flew around Japan’s northern main island of Hokkaido and the Sea of Japan area off the main islands of Honshu and Hokkaido with slight tracks off southwest Japan and through the Miyako Strait, likely representing joint bomber flights with China.
OBSERVATION - Chinese as well as Russian games influencing Japan - most likely part of what is driving Japan to upgrade and expand its current military forces beyond their post WW2 levels.
Phillipines –
Next week, the President of the Philippine Islands (PI), Ferdinand Marcos Jr., will visit Hanoi, Vietnam, for a state visit where he will sign several treaties to enhance cooperation between the Philippines and Vietnam.
OBSERVATION - The Philippines are growing their treaty network in the face of Chinese aggression and Vietnam is a choice addition. Vietnam has had Chinese aggression toward islands in their control as well. Plus, Vietnam and China have been at odds over a number of other issues since the end of the war with the US.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Avdiivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
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Russian cities continue to have power and heat related disasters that are leaving millions in the cold and dark.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Warming trend bringing temps into the 40’s with rain/snow dropping back down to the 20-30s with snow towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Overnight, a Russian Il-76 reportedly with 63 people on board crashed in Belgorod region, no survivors. Russia claims the passengers were Ukrainian POWs being brought in for an exchange. Other reports say the POW statement is false, that the Il-76 was carrying S300 missiles.
Belgorod was under an attack by Ukraine drones just hours earlier. Could this be another case of friendly fire? The plane was about 30 miles from the Ukraine border when hit.
Avdiivka -
Word coming out that Ukraine is experiencing severe artillery ammo shortages that Russia is exploiting. Over the past many months, Russia has been stymied in their attacks by abundant and accurate artillery and counter battery fire. These fires have dropped dramatically and enabling Russian meat attacks to gnaw away on the Ukraine defense lines, now starting to make real gains into the town itself.
Kherson Axis -
Ukraine’s drone superiority around the bridgehead area continues to be the bane of Russian forces trying to force them out. Ukraine has also developed a jamming system that is protecting its forces from similar attacks by Russia.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.
Continued ‘deep’ operations with exchanges of drone/missile fire.
Europe / NATO General –
Norway’s defense chief has become the latest senior military figure to warn that Europe has a matter of years to prepare for war against Russia.
Chief of the General Staff of the Norwegian Armed Forces Eirik Kristoffersen said the country’s military has a window of opportunity that “could last one, two, maybe three years” during which defense spending should be increased.
“But we are running out of time. I just want to emphasize this. We don’t know what will happen to Russia in three years. It is important for us to face an uncertain and unpredictable world with strong national defense,” said Kristoffersen
He stressed that Russia is building up its military potential “much faster than expected.”
Last week, the NATO defense chiefs met in Brussels where several emphasized the importance of countries in Europe increasing their readiness for an attack.
OBSERVATION - All of a sudden increased concern over Russia and war. What changed in the last couple weeks?
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Turkey votes in favor of Sweden’s NATO membership after a delay of 20 months.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas yesterday rejected Israel’s offer of a cease fire
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Wall Street Journal, citing sources: Israel informed the United States of its intention to build a kilometer-wide buffer zone on the Gaza border.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli army spokesman: Many Hamas militants are hiding in sensitive areas (schools, mosques etc) and surprising our soldiers.
NOTE - This is similar to the US tactic of ‘going to ground’ - hiding out and letting the enemy pass, then striking their rear areas.
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Large forces of the Israeli army’s 98th Division began a major offensive into western Khan Younis in southern Gaza on Monday, the IDF announced, following several days without reports about Israeli advancements in the fighting.
Overnight, the Israeli military says its ground forces have encircled Khan Younis, the southern Gaza Strip’s largest city.
Troops have also reportedly advanced deeper into remaining parts of the city, where they believe Hamas leaders are hiding in tunnels with hostages.
There was also intense fighting around the city’s two main hospitals. IDF is facing resistance from Hamas’s Khan Younis Brigade. It is considered to be one of the two strongest in the group, which is designated as a terrorist organization by Israel, the UK and other countries.
OBSERVATION - Remember, Hamas established a main command center beneath hospitals in N Gaza - no reason not to believe they have not done the same in S Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
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A rocket barrage launched by the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon hit the Israel Air Force base on Mount Meron on Tuesday, causing light damage, Israel Defense Forces stated on Tuesday afternoon.
“There is no damage to the Air Force’s detection capabilities,” due to “the good skill of the forces and as part of the operational competence and backup through additional systems,” the IDF added.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Anti-terror operations continue, with Israeli security forces moving in and out of refugee centers to arrest Hamas affiliated terror subjects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iranian backed militias bombarded the American Coniko field base in Syria with rockets
Another attack reported tonight on the Ain Al-Assad airbase. Some reports of drones intercepted, but looks like impacts occurred too. Reports there may have been further casualties.
US airstrikes reported overnight against IRGC backed militias. Reports of casualties. This is a response to ongoing almost daily attacks against bases where U.S forces are located in Iraq and Syria. Local media reporting a command post and training centre in Babil also targeted in tonight’s airstrikes against IRGC backed militias.
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The Yemeni army announces the downing of a drone belonging to the Houthi militia while it was flying towards military sites northwest of Al-Jawf
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Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada Secretary General Abu Ala al-Wala calls for the Islamic Resistance to begin the second phase of response due to the airstrikes conducted this evening. The second phase includes imposing a blockade in the maritime sector for Israel in the Mediterranean Sea
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U.S. CENTCOM Destroys Two Houthi Militants’ Anti-Ship Missiles. On Jan. 24 at approximately 2:30 a.m.(Sanaa time), U.S. Central Command forces conducted strikes against two Houthi anti-ship missiles that were aimed into the Southern Red Sea and were prepared to launch. U.S. forces identified the missiles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined that they presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and the U.S. Navy ships in the region. U.S. forces subsequently struck and destroyed the missiles in self-defense. This action will protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for U.S. Navy vessels and merchant vessels
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
US forces have not made a third major hit on Houthi targets - a lack of effort that may mean it is bailing on the ‘continual’ claim of the Poseidon operation. Fighter/bomber CAPs have had some success in targeting and destroying some Houthi launch vehicles as they prepare to fire, but you gotta do more.
In regards to the threat of closing off the Med to Israeli use and commerce - at this time i think it is largely rhetoric. If Hamas / Hezbollah and affiliated start targeting ships in the Med it will create a firestorm of response from European countries. I’m not sure that the puppet master - Iran - is ready for such a rapid expansion of the conflict. Nor do I think Lebanon will be favorably inclined to be the launching site for most of those drones/missiles.
Iraq -
The Iraqi government has strongly condemned US strikes which targeted sites used by Iranian-backed groups in Iraq on Wednesday.
A spokesperson for Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said they “blatantly” violated his country’s sovereignty.
The US said its “proportionate” attacks had targeted “Iran-affiliated groups”.
The paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) said the “treacherous” US action killed one of their fighters.
The PMF, which is dominated by Iran-backed Shia Muslim militias, said a number of other fighters were injured in strikes on their bases in al-Qaim, a town on the Syrian border in western Anbar province, and in Jurf al-Nasr, in the central province of Babil.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68077560?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA
Misc of Note –
Canada’s Federal Court released a ruling that found the Liberals’ decision to invoke the Emergencies Act against a trucker protest in 2022 was unreasonable & unjustified stating “We do not agree with this decision.” This has put the ruling liberal party on their heels and they are spinning rapidly to deflect criticism. The liberal party sleazed their way into power in the last elections and have been alienating themselves from the nation since. This court decision is reportedly going to be appealed, but the trend is against them.
Reminder that the trucker’s protest was against tyrannical wuhan jab requirements and resulted in truckers losing their jobs, bank accounts being seized and other punitive actions all under the guise of the ‘Emergency Act”