SMH today. So much of our society, and nation coming apart at the seams. Hard to keep one’s head up.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
La Phew - The French farmers are now SPRAYING MANURE on government buildings in protest.
Farmer protests growing to include Italy.
These protests are against new laws and taxes imposed to move their respective counties closer to the EU’s “net zero” carbon goals. Included are excessive fuel taxes and restrictions on chemicals/fertilizers and herd/flock sizes.
***
President of Singapore, Tharman Shanmugaratnam, speaking at the WEF’s annual Davos summit: “There is no realistic solution to the climate transition that does not involve a globally co-ordinated system of carbon taxes.”
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott says, after the Supreme Court’s ruling, that he will defend Texas constitutional authority to secure the southern border and that Texas will prevent the Biden administration from removing property. TX is receiving support from across most of the country for its stand.
In fact, TX doubled down by installing more fencing and reinforcing existing fences. DHS took no actions yesterday to try to access the fence(s). It is reported that TX stands ready to continue to deny BP/DHS unrestricted access to the Eagles Pass enclosure.
OBSERVATION - What will the regime do now?
***
The Mexican government wins their appeal in U.S. court and is able to proceed with the lawsuit against U.S. gun companies for supplying weapons to cartels that fuels the bloodshed south of the border.
OBSERVATION - This lawsuit heavily supported by leftist in the US is another effort to attack the 2d amendment by cutting off arms manufacturers.
***
Cernovich in an “X” post expresses a strong view of the stakes on the border.-
“I serve no man, my loyalty is to the country.
It’s Trump 2024 or the country faces a Rwandan style genocide once Democrats activate their gangs from the border.
Let no man deny the stakes.”
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted the threat from these military aged MEN, who are the primary illegals crossing the border, to cause havoc. But I never considered a Rwandan style uprising. Couple that with all the arms, ammunitions and kit the various alphabet agencies have been collecting over the last few years. . . . . Are the democrats that crazed to stay in control that they will initiate such a war?
***
Cross ref with Illegal Immigration -
Black residents of Chicago are fed up with how Mayor Brandon Johnson is running the city. So, they are suing him.
Democrat Mayor Johnson is black. Black voters in Chicago are staunchly Democrat voters. This is Democrats versus the top Democrat in a battle over who should get priority treatment as illegal aliens come into the city. The City of Chicago is trying to convert community centers and school buildings to shelter illegals. Two lawsuits by black Chicago residents have forced the city to abandon it plans to use community centers as shelters.
Truss is also angry that Mayor Johnson’s administration has spent more than $250M providing services for illegal aliens when her community is in poverty. She said that there is a humanitarian crisis in Chicago’s black community. Yet, when the community has a need, the city tells them there is no money.
OBSERVATION - Ive been noting increased friction between the existing welfare class in cities like Chicago and the flood of illegals that have swept them to the bottom of the feeding list for social welfare benefits. Chicago blacks have already threatened the DNCs national convention if things don’t change and fast. This is fast becoming another major fraction line being created in our society. The question is how soon before violence starts kicking in.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
An independent journalist interviewed an illegal after he crossed the border. When asked who he is, he gave the cryptic reply “America is soon going to know who he is”
That triggered internet sleuths into action and now we have a very firm identification of who this individual is. He is Movsum Samadov - leader of the banned Azerbaijan Islamist Party known for their anti-American and anti-Christian radical ideals.
He served a 12 year sentence for serious crimes and planning terrorist attacks . He was released in January 2023.
OBSERVATION - This is a huge red flag that an established islamic radical terrorist LEADER has walked into the US and threatens actions against the US. This begs the question - how many others like him have crossed?
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
*****
(FO) JPMorgan analysts use a combination of the New York Fed’s global supply chain pressure index (GSCPI) and their own analysis to project supply chain dislocations and prices, which consumers should feel by March.
The GSCPI includes measures like U.S. airfreight costs, delivery times for goods, and other measures, and the latest data suggests that supply chain pressures are near the historical norms.
However, the GSPI doesn’t incorporate container rates that have moved up sharply since December, according to JPM’s analysis.
OBSERVATION -Big on the unincorporated increased shipping costs are those generated due to the Houthi actions essentially closing the Suez Canal / Red Sea and forcing shipping around the Horn of Africa - something like 10 extra days and associated costs.
It will be interesting to see if this predictive tool has any real value. Look to see higher prices working their way thru the system and hitting us by March.
***
Goldman Sachs analysts forecast that the global copper deficit will be almost half a million tons in 2024 – about 2% of annual copper production – and this will cause prices to rise this year and nearly double by next year.
OBSERVATION - This doesn’t factor in the other metals that are mined. Copper mining has hit many roadblocks over the past few years, especially in key producing locations like Rep of Congo and world’s top producer, Chile. These resulting higher prices will ripple down through the economy in general - continuing to push inflation higher.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Northrop Grumman has the greenlight to begin producing the Pentagon’s newest bomber.
“Production of the B-21 ‘Raider’ stealth bomber is moving forward. This past fall, based on the results of ground and flight tests and the team’s mature plans for manufacturing, I gave the go-ahead to begin producing B-21s at a low rate,” William LaPlante, defense undersecretary for acquisition and sustainment, said in a Monday evening statement. “One of the key attributes of this program has been designing for production from the start – and at scale – to provide a credible deterrent to adversaries. If you don’t produce and field to warfighters at scale, the capability doesn’t really matter.”
The start of B-21 production was first reported by Bloomberg.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Trump won NH easily. 70% of the votes Haley received came from crossover democrats - NH is an open primary state. Haley vows to continue the campaign.
***
Arizona Republican Party chair Jeff DeWit was caught on secret recording trying to bribe Kari Lake not to run for the Senate.
“There are very powerful people who want to keep you out,” he said.
At one point during the secret recording, Lake was asked to name her “number.”
DeWit: “Just say, is there a number at which...”
Lake: “I can be bought? That’s what it’s about.”
DeWit: “You can take a pause for a couple of years. You can go right back to what you’re doing.”
Lake: “This is not about money, it’s about our country.”
OBSERVATION - Conversation confirmed by Lake. The outstanding question is who was bankrolling this payoff? Further, how many other ‘republicans’ across the nation have been bought out as well? This may soon become very explosive and we’ll have to see who starts falling out of windows.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Saw a skuttle butt discussion regarding how they think “mike’ 0bama will get the DNC nod to be the candidate for president instead of biden. Goes something like this -
biden remains the candidate thru to the convention. Any premature withdrawal will automatically make him a lame duck president and he’ll cease to be useful for his handlers.
At the convention - ‘mike’ will be back door brokered into the candidate slot.
Seems a stretch, but carries a degree of real possibility. Another potential switch instead of ‘mike’ would be newscum, who’s been running a stealth campaign for much of the last year. Harris will be tossed aside like the piece of rubbish she is, into political obscurity.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
According to data released by a new report by the Congressional Budget Office and delineated by RedState.com, the Biden administration has used a parole loophole in immigration law to release over 6 million illegal immigrants into the U.S. since Joe Biden took office in January 2021.
The number of illegal aliens entering the U.S. under Biden, equivalent to about the population of Tennessee, has increased each year of the Biden presidency.
“CBO estimates that, on net, the number of people immigrating to the United States was 1.2 million in 2021 and 2.7 million in 2022,” the report stated.
CBO report read: “Customs and Border Protection officials are encountering more people attempting to enter the United States and are releasing more of them into the country with humanitarian parole or with a notice to appear before an immigration judge, and more people are illegally entering the country without encountering Customs and Boarder Protection officials.”
OBSERVATION - Last week one of the democrats let slip that these illegals are here ‘legally’. The use of this loophole may be what was indirectly referred to. What this ‘parole’ does is uncertain, as it doesn’t give them a green card or other legal status, but does give the regimen cover for dumping them into the country without deportation until they can shoehorn in some kind of amnesty.
***
Breitbart is reporting that Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is quietly pressuring GOP Senators to promise their support for his border bill before it is released to the public for debate.
Multiple media reports say the still-secret bill is largely complete. But its release has been delayed until McConnell can lock in at least 20 of the 49 GOP Senators, perhaps by making minor changes.
The draft bill is also being reviewed by the Senate’s Committee on Appropriations because the Biden administration wants roughly $15 billion to operate its migration program in 2024. The money is needed by Democrats to process, transport, feed, house, and hide arriving 2024 migrants –and the 6.2 million migrants already admitted— during the run-up to the 2024 election.
OBSERVATION - What is McConnell getting out of this ‘deal’. He is certainly working to screw all americans - republicans and democrats - with this bill. IIRC, in an earlier post I found general outline of the bill. Big item is the essential amnesty of nearly all the illegal that have entered the country under biden. This is a new level of treason.
China –
A study involving US and Taiwanese see the most likely course of action that China towards China is a “law enforcement operation” led by non-military actors (e.g., China Coast Guard, maritime militia, etc.) that is focused on limiting the flow of commercial goods into Taiwan” This kind of blockade looks very similar to what China has been using against the Philippines in disputed regions.
This in effect would be a limited form of a blockade, some analysts think it could be effective in forcing concessions from Taiwan in a little as three months. The big question is what will the rest of the global community do? Taiwan is a big player in computer and related and with the tensions of a growing Chinese threat in the western Pacific, Japan, Australia, the US and other nations may force the issue.
It is further believed that China will likely seek to avoid anything further than this “law enforcement operation”, perhaps in part due to economic problems at home and troubles with military preparedness and leadership loyalty to Xi.
(FO)
North/South Korea –
North Korea fired several cruise missiles towards the Yellow Sea in the latest tension-raising move by the nuclear-armed state.
The missiles were launched at around 7am (10pm UK time on Tuesday) and were being analysed by South Korean and U.S. intelligence, Seoul said.
‘Our military detected several cruise missiles launched by North Korea towards the Yellow Sea at around 7:00 am today,’ the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.
The launches marked North Korea’s second known launch event of the year, following a January 14 flight test-firing of the country’s first solid-fuel intermediate range ballistic missile.
OBSERVATION - pretty much continued missile testing by NK.
Japan –
Japanese defense forces flew 555 fighter jet scrambles during the last nine months of 2023, according to the Joint Staff Office of Japan’s Ministry of Defense. The JSO said 98 percent of scrambles were against Chinese and Russian aircraft according to data released by the Ministry of Defense on Tuesday.
Chinese aircraft accounted for 392 scrambles (71 percent), a slight downtrend from 462 in the same timeframe in 2022. However, the JSO said the numbers were still higher than average for the last ten years. Russia saw a slight uptick prompting 148 scrambles (27 percent) compared to 133 for the same period in 2022. The JSO release also showed that the remaining scrambles for the period totaled 14 – a single scramble against Taiwan, two against North Korea and 12 against unspecified threats. Outside of aircraft, the Japanese Ministry of Defense had announced on Jul. 12 and Dec. 18 last year that Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) F-15J fighters had been scrambled in response to North Korean ballistic missile launches on those days. Overall.\, the JSDF saw a decrease of 57 scrambles from the same period in 2022 but officials said the 2023 numbers were considered to be high.
A map by the JSO on flight tracks showed the Chinese flight activity taking place largely around southwest Japan and off the east coast of Taiwan. Chinese activity in the Sea of Japan was limited to joint bomber flights with Russia. Russian aircraft mainly flew around Japan’s northern main island of Hokkaido and the Sea of Japan area off the main islands of Honshu and Hokkaido with slight tracks off southwest Japan and through the Miyako Strait, likely representing joint bomber flights with China.
OBSERVATION - Chinese as well as Russian games influencing Japan - most likely part of what is driving Japan to upgrade and expand its current military forces beyond their post WW2 levels.
Phillipines –
Next week, the President of the Philippine Islands (PI), Ferdinand Marcos Jr., will visit Hanoi, Vietnam, for a state visit where he will sign several treaties to enhance cooperation between the Philippines and Vietnam.
OBSERVATION - The Philippines are growing their treaty network in the face of Chinese aggression and Vietnam is a choice addition. Vietnam has had Chinese aggression toward islands in their control as well. Plus, Vietnam and China have been at odds over a number of other issues since the end of the war with the US.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Avdiivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
*****
Russian cities continue to have power and heat related disasters that are leaving millions in the cold and dark.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Warming trend bringing temps into the 40’s with rain/snow dropping back down to the 20-30s with snow towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Overnight, a Russian Il-76 reportedly with 63 people on board crashed in Belgorod region, no survivors. Russia claims the passengers were Ukrainian POWs being brought in for an exchange. Other reports say the POW statement is false, that the Il-76 was carrying S300 missiles.
Belgorod was under an attack by Ukraine drones just hours earlier. Could this be another case of friendly fire? The plane was about 30 miles from the Ukraine border when hit.
Avdiivka -
Word coming out that Ukraine is experiencing severe artillery ammo shortages that Russia is exploiting. Over the past many months, Russia has been stymied in their attacks by abundant and accurate artillery and counter battery fire. These fires have dropped dramatically and enabling Russian meat attacks to gnaw away on the Ukraine defense lines, now starting to make real gains into the town itself.
Kherson Axis -
Ukraine’s drone superiority around the bridgehead area continues to be the bane of Russian forces trying to force them out. Ukraine has also developed a jamming system that is protecting its forces from similar attacks by Russia.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.
Continued ‘deep’ operations with exchanges of drone/missile fire.
Europe / NATO General –
Norway’s defense chief has become the latest senior military figure to warn that Europe has a matter of years to prepare for war against Russia.
Chief of the General Staff of the Norwegian Armed Forces Eirik Kristoffersen said the country’s military has a window of opportunity that “could last one, two, maybe three years” during which defense spending should be increased.
“But we are running out of time. I just want to emphasize this. We don’t know what will happen to Russia in three years. It is important for us to face an uncertain and unpredictable world with strong national defense,” said Kristoffersen
He stressed that Russia is building up its military potential “much faster than expected.”
Last week, the NATO defense chiefs met in Brussels where several emphasized the importance of countries in Europe increasing their readiness for an attack.
OBSERVATION - All of a sudden increased concern over Russia and war. What changed in the last couple weeks?
***
Turkey votes in favor of Sweden’s NATO membership after a delay of 20 months.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas yesterday rejected Israel’s offer of a cease fire
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Wall Street Journal, citing sources: Israel informed the United States of its intention to build a kilometer-wide buffer zone on the Gaza border.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli army spokesman: Many Hamas militants are hiding in sensitive areas (schools, mosques etc) and surprising our soldiers.
NOTE - This is similar to the US tactic of ‘going to ground’ - hiding out and letting the enemy pass, then striking their rear areas.
***
Large forces of the Israeli army’s 98th Division began a major offensive into western Khan Younis in southern Gaza on Monday, the IDF announced, following several days without reports about Israeli advancements in the fighting.
Overnight, the Israeli military says its ground forces have encircled Khan Younis, the southern Gaza Strip’s largest city.
Troops have also reportedly advanced deeper into remaining parts of the city, where they believe Hamas leaders are hiding in tunnels with hostages.
There was also intense fighting around the city’s two main hospitals. IDF is facing resistance from Hamas’s Khan Younis Brigade. It is considered to be one of the two strongest in the group, which is designated as a terrorist organization by Israel, the UK and other countries.
OBSERVATION - Remember, Hamas established a main command center beneath hospitals in N Gaza - no reason not to believe they have not done the same in S Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
***
A rocket barrage launched by the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon hit the Israel Air Force base on Mount Meron on Tuesday, causing light damage, Israel Defense Forces stated on Tuesday afternoon.
“There is no damage to the Air Force’s detection capabilities,” due to “the good skill of the forces and as part of the operational competence and backup through additional systems,” the IDF added.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Anti-terror operations continue, with Israeli security forces moving in and out of refugee centers to arrest Hamas affiliated terror subjects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iranian backed militias bombarded the American Coniko field base in Syria with rockets
Another attack reported tonight on the Ain Al-Assad airbase. Some reports of drones intercepted, but looks like impacts occurred too. Reports there may have been further casualties.
US airstrikes reported overnight against IRGC backed militias. Reports of casualties. This is a response to ongoing almost daily attacks against bases where U.S forces are located in Iraq and Syria. Local media reporting a command post and training centre in Babil also targeted in tonight’s airstrikes against IRGC backed militias.
***
The Yemeni army announces the downing of a drone belonging to the Houthi militia while it was flying towards military sites northwest of Al-Jawf
***
Kata’ib Sayyid al-Shuhada Secretary General Abu Ala al-Wala calls for the Islamic Resistance to begin the second phase of response due to the airstrikes conducted this evening. The second phase includes imposing a blockade in the maritime sector for Israel in the Mediterranean Sea
***
U.S. CENTCOM Destroys Two Houthi Militants’ Anti-Ship Missiles. On Jan. 24 at approximately 2:30 a.m.(Sanaa time), U.S. Central Command forces conducted strikes against two Houthi anti-ship missiles that were aimed into the Southern Red Sea and were prepared to launch. U.S. forces identified the missiles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined that they presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and the U.S. Navy ships in the region. U.S. forces subsequently struck and destroyed the missiles in self-defense. This action will protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for U.S. Navy vessels and merchant vessels
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
US forces have not made a third major hit on Houthi targets - a lack of effort that may mean it is bailing on the ‘continual’ claim of the Poseidon operation. Fighter/bomber CAPs have had some success in targeting and destroying some Houthi launch vehicles as they prepare to fire, but you gotta do more.
In regards to the threat of closing off the Med to Israeli use and commerce - at this time i think it is largely rhetoric. If Hamas / Hezbollah and affiliated start targeting ships in the Med it will create a firestorm of response from European countries. I’m not sure that the puppet master - Iran - is ready for such a rapid expansion of the conflict. Nor do I think Lebanon will be favorably inclined to be the launching site for most of those drones/missiles.
Iraq -
The Iraqi government has strongly condemned US strikes which targeted sites used by Iranian-backed groups in Iraq on Wednesday.
A spokesperson for Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said they “blatantly” violated his country’s sovereignty.
The US said its “proportionate” attacks had targeted “Iran-affiliated groups”.
The paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) said the “treacherous” US action killed one of their fighters.
The PMF, which is dominated by Iran-backed Shia Muslim militias, said a number of other fighters were injured in strikes on their bases in al-Qaim, a town on the Syrian border in western Anbar province, and in Jurf al-Nasr, in the central province of Babil.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68077560?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA
Misc of Note –
Canada’s Federal Court released a ruling that found the Liberals’ decision to invoke the Emergencies Act against a trucker protest in 2022 was unreasonable & unjustified stating “We do not agree with this decision.” This has put the ruling liberal party on their heels and they are spinning rapidly to deflect criticism. The liberal party sleazed their way into power in the last elections and have been alienating themselves from the nation since. This court decision is reportedly going to be appealed, but the trend is against them.
Reminder that the trucker’s protest was against tyrannical wuhan jab requirements and resulted in truckers losing their jobs, bank accounts being seized and other punitive actions all under the guise of the ‘Emergency Act”
U.S. CENTCOM Destroys Two Houthi Militants’ Anti-Ship Missiles. On Jan. 24 at approximately 2:30 a.m.(Sanaa time), U.S. Central Command forces conducted strikes against two Houthi anti-ship missiles that were aimed into the Southern Red Sea and were prepared to launch. U.S. forces identified the missiles in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and determined that they presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and the U.S. Navy ships in the region.
Might be time to buy those larger kitchen appliances you've been putting off buying...
Developments of the last 24-48 hours have pushed the likelihood of the “Great Divorce” that much closer to happening. I’m assessing what would happen in my corner of the Redoubt show things go sideways at Eagle Pass TX. Currently my state is standing with TX, but all states that are signing on their support need to issue warning orders to their NG elements to prepare for action.
Freepers need to plan accordingly
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO February 19 to 21, Trans guideline committee.
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
European Central Bank asks some lenders to monitor social media for early signs of bank runs — Reuters
OBSERVATION - Cryptic request that suggests that some kind of event is going to happen. Why not all lenders? How much / many assets do these lending institutions have to conduct social media monitoring?
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Showdown in TX continues. The beacons of Gondor are lit ! !
Texas Governor Greg Abbott issues statement DEFYING The Supreme Court, The Invasion response “SUPERSEDES any federal statutes to the contrary.”
“The federal government has BROKEN THE COMPACT between the United States and the States.
“I have already declared an invasion under Article I, § 10, Clause 3 to invoke Texas’s constitutional authority to defend and protect itself. That authority is the supreme law of the land and SUPERSEDES any federal statutes to the contrary.”
Link to declaration -
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GEoV81DWwAA85zy?format=jpg&name=large
States on record all announcing that they stand with Texas and Gov. Greg Abbott in the border dispute with the federal government include -
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, and Montana Gov. Greg Gianforte
Numerous other states have over the past months sent NG and other assistance to TX, but have yet to stand to the latest challenge.
NOTE - The numbers are increasing, pending confirmation of support from other states.
Dems in Congress are calling on Biden to seize control of the TX National Guard.
OBSERVATION - This document - any you gotta read it if you haven’t - expresses clearly and constitutionally the failure of the regime to defend the border and the overwhelming right of the states to step forward to respond to this invasion.
Very key statement is BROKEN THE COMPACT. It forces the divide with the regime and provides cover for NG units to continue to operate in defense of the border - to the point that any attempt to nationalize them would be rendered moot because it would be unconstitutional under the present circumstances.
This leads me to consider the regime’s options - and it is building into a lose/lose scenario for biden. Among some options -
- Sending active duty troops to quell the ‘rebellion’. Politics in an election year would make this a death knell for biden. Very few except for rabid leftists would endorse this action of sending troops to fight citizens over this issue. This would also trigger civilian militas and supporting states to potentially intervene. And that is to believe that the soldiers would willing go off and try to fight other americans. Woke DEI hasn’t gotten all our troops.
- Nationalize the NG. I’m not a lawyer, but commentary from those who are better versed in this indicate that the TXNG could tell the regime to take a hike under the violations of the US Constitution Abbot clearly laid out. Again, the visuals of the action in the lens of a campaign year would not look good.
- Use armed elements of the DHS,FBI, Fed marshals, etc to force access and control. Again - big shoot out doesn’t pllay well with most americans and it will rally support for TX by aligned red states.
- Do nothing but bluster and lie. That is the current trend. However, the press corps (sensing administration blood in the water over its invasion operation) is not letting them off the hook. Press conferences of the past couple days have WH spokescritters throwing all kinds of easily demonstrably false answers and obfuscations out there. As those hit the wires, it will trigger even more negative opinions by the citizenry.
OK, so what is my prognostication? I wish I knew for certain. I don’t think the regime is ready to use the force card, by either the active duty military or armed goons of the alphabet agencies. They may attempt a show of force and try to demand access soon; an effort that would attempt to save face and set the DoJ into actions in the ongoing law fare on the border. When it comes to head on head, the regime seems to weaken. Nationalizing the NG remains a possibility, but the guard may blow that off, citing that it would be an unconstitutional order under the present situation.
I certainly hope the regime is reluctant to force the situation via violent means. To do so would trigger an almost instantaneous civil war across TX as well as core red states.
Biden may hold off announcing an action until the SOTU address in March - a ‘surprise’ action in the works.
Dangerous thought - triggering such an action could be desired - in order to declare martial law and shelve the elections. Very dangerous thought.
Economy-
Upcoming dates of importance
- The Fed next meets on Jan. 30-31.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Biden admin. is planning to pull US forces out of Syria, Foreign Policy reported. “While no definitive decision has been made to leave, four sources within the Defense and State departments said the White House is no longer invested in sustaining a mission that it perceives as unnecessary,” the report added
OBSERVATION - A smaller scale version of Afghanistan developing.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
Feb 8 - The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments on the Colorado case.
March - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
****
Jeff DeWit to resign as Arizona Republican Party chair after recording revealed he offered Kari Lake a bribe not to run for Senate.
OBSERVATION - Republicans were cheated out big time in the AZ elections, and the republican party failed to rise to the occasion to challenge the blatant vote fraud that has been uncovered, way more than enough to have overturned the election results. Who’s funding the ruin of the AZ republican party from the inside?
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 on Texas standoff.
***
A new poll reveals that immigration is now the leading policy concern among American voters, outpacing inflation and other national issues like economics and jobs.
The poll, conducted by the Harvard University Center for American Political Studies in collaboration with market research and analytics firm The Harvard Poll this January, shows a shift in public sentiment, with 35 percent of respondents identifying immigration as their primary concern this coming election and inflation closely behind at 32 percent.
“Economy and jobs” followed after immigration and inflation, with 25 percent of the votes from respondents. “Crime and drugs” and health care each only garnered 16 percent of the votes from participants, while the deficit and national security got 14 percent. Corruption and the environment rounded out the list, with only 13 percent of respondents highlighting these issues.
OBSERVATION - Quite the timing, with the border issue exploding into a growing standoff between Texas (and aligning states) and biden regime.
***
U.S. Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, Utah Sen. Mike Lee and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz are speaking out about the ongoing negotiations between the regime and McConnell. It has some very deep ugliness -
- Legally establish 5,000 illegal aliens entering the country per day as the new norm, requiring the crisis hit that number before the president could invoke Title 42-esque authority, effectively forcing Americans to, at minimum, accept 1.8 million illegal aliens a year.
- Provide amnesty to a “documented Dreamer” class, taking care of 250,000 people whose parents replaced American workers under the deeply flawed H-1B guest worker program.
- Keep mass parole programs in place — provided illegal immigrants enter through American airports, not at the border.
- Give quicker work permits to illegal aliens likely committing asylum fraud by ending the 180-day wait period.
- Expand the already vast network of free benefits like legal services for illegal aliens—adding to the services American taxpayers already fund to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars per year.
— Funnel billions of dollars to the corrupt NGOs that profit off the border crisis by transporting, lodging, and helping illegal aliens enter the country every day.
https://dailycaller.com/2024/01/24/senate-republican-josh-hawley-mike-lee-ted-cruz-border-deal-leak-proposal/
OBSERVATION - It is also known that McConnell is trying to gain enough Republican support to override any filibuster of the bill. This is a gross sellout of the country and needs to be brought to light.
***
Illegals are now being housed at Logan airport, Boston. The MA Governor previously asked citizens to take illegals into their homes.
MA is the only state with a right-to-shelter law which means the state must provide shelter for anyone who needs it.
OBSERVATION - Numerous rumors out there that are suggesting that these mayors and governors are contemplating forcing citizens to house illegals. The loony left are already making the noise - until, like Martha’s Vineyard, its time for them to house these ungrateful parasites in their multimillion dollar mansions.
China –
China has initiated some actions to try to stabilize their stock markets. This caused a jump in prices yesterday, but questions continue on how long this quick fix will stabilize matters.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Jan 1, 2024
With the end of the Ukraine summer offensive and the ongoing winter mud season, Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Russia maintains it attacks to take Avdiivka, even in the face of huge losses. Russia continues to launch smaller attacks daily across the front lines.
Russian has been shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones with the likelihood of attempting to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2023. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. In the last half of 2023, Ukraine was able to take out about 20% of the fleet.
While Russia has reportedly about 400K of soldiers in the theater, all evidence indicates that they are poorly trained and equipped. Russian forces are increasingly having to rely on 50’s and 60’s vintage tanks, APCs and other vehicles. Russian large assaults continue to be what are referred to as ‘meat’ attacks - throwing large numbers of lightly armed, foot troops at Ukraine defenses in hopes of overwhelming them. These tactics ‘worked’ at Bakhmut but there Russia still had a superiority in artillery support. Concerted efforts by Ukraine to locate and destroy Russian artillery, combined with wear and tear taking systems out and poor/no ammo has generally caused Russia to lose the edge in artillery firepower.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Russia is believed to be trying to muster a force for a winter offensive, once the soils freeze up and permit cross country maneuver. Focus of such an offensive has not solidified but the most likely candidate for one front is the continued attempt to eliminate the salient at Adviivka.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-30 range with scattered snow
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Weather continues to dominate action on the ground. However, temperatures are reaching levels around Ukraine that are starting to freeze the ground locally, meaning that ground operations may have their tempo increase over the coming days/weeks.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 11 of 14 Shahed drones overnight
Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down 91 Ukrainian drones in last 24 hours
The Russian Il-76 shot down the other day continues to be a focus of discussion. Russia claims it contained POWs, Ukraine claims otherwise. OSINT analysts are questioning Russia’s claim based on tracking of the aircraft through the region as well as its actions of the day. Apparently it has been identified in the past as carrying ammunition into the city on a regular basis, and on that day it arrived from the middle east (hardly a POW holding area) and upon take off was headed to Moscow - again, not conducive of a POW exchange story.
The second part of the story involves how Ukraine has creatively deployed Patriot elements for what essentially could be considered to be a ‘hit and run’ operation. Deploy limited elements far far forward to engage Russian air traffic that has been following a definite routine, hit them and then get out of dodge to avoid detection and destruction.
Russian Territory –
In Tuapse, Russia, an energy facility was hit presumably by drones.
Outlook —
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud. However, seeing reports that the ground is beginning to solidify in areas, to the level of being capable to support off road movement.
Continued ‘deep’ operations with exchanges of drone/missile fire. In this instance, Russia is struggling. Ukraine has come out with longer range drones and they have been reaching out and hitting unprotected petroleum and manufacturing sites. Russia is scrambling to get air defense assets to cover these targets, but with the losses from the war and limited availability of reserve systems, they are getting stretched pretty thin. I’ve noted this before - Russian is a target rich environment for these kinds of attacks, with a lot of territory that air defense is required to protect. In the case of St Petersburg, they are trying to close the barn door after the horses have gotten out.
Some analysts are trying to say Russia is attempting to do similar to Ukraine - thin out the ADA network. Russian problem is Ukraine, though pretty large, is more compact, making necessary ‘thinning’ by Russian attack planners, very difficult. Compactness grants Ukraine the ability to shift elements without significant impacts to the overall ADA network.
Europe / NATO General –
The head of the British army has issued a warning to the people of the United Kingdom to prepare themselves for a war comparable to the major wars of the 20th century and that they may need to mobilize.
General Sir Patrick Sanders said that we must recall the lessons of past conflicts before it is too late, stating that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a foreshadowing of things to come.
OBSERVATION - Continued warnings of impending war by European nations. What are they seeing that most do not?
ISRAEL –
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense fighting continues as IDF presses into Hamas strongholds in Khan Younis.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Continued exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and IDF along the border.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Violent armed clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli security forces in the eastern neighborhood of Jenin.
Clashes broke out between rioters and Israeli security forces in Al-Fawwar camp, south of Hebron
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The “Islamic Resistance” announces the targeting of 3 American bases in Iraq and Syria
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CENTCOM: Houthis Attack Commercial Shipping Vessel with Anti-Ship MissilesOn Jan. 24 at approximately 2 p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthi militants fired three anti-ship ballistic missiles from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen toward the U.S.-flagged, owned, and operated container ship M/V Maersk Detroit, transiting the Gulf of Aden. One missile impacted in the sea. The two other missiles were successfully engaged and shot down by the USS Gravely (DDG 107). There were no reported injuries or damage to the ship
Top container shipper AP Moller-Maersk, sent a memo to its customers advising them to brace for complications and disruptions in the Red Sea region. The memo expressed the company’s commitment to contributing to a sustainable resolution while acknowledging the potential for a prolonged impact on the global shipping network.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
British Foreign Minister - It is unrealistic to cease fire while Hamas is able to fire rockets at Israel
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Iran and Turkey have agreed to back terrorist organizations fighting against Israel, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi proclaimed on Wednesday following talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Speaking alongside Erdoğan at the presidential palace in Ankara, Raisi said, “In the talks we had with the Turkish president…we both agreed to support Palestine. We both agreed to support the Islamic resistance in Palestine,” according to Tehran’s semi-official Student News Agency.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations across Gaza. Fighting to continue to be intense in central and S Gaza while N Gaza levels are dropping fast.
Houthi continue to scare shipping away from the Red Sea. Yesterday they attacked a convoy protected by a US destroyer and some reports say that even turned ships back. The operation Poseidon something or other is not hitting the Houthi’s as hard and continually as they need to.
Islamic ‘resistance’ forces may be close to achieving victory in eastern Syria with US leaders reportedly making plans to pull out (borderline RUMINT). Trump initially ordered a pull out under his first term, but the military / diplomats squealed and convinced Trump to change his mind. A pull-out under the current situation - under increasing fire - will be seen by Iran and all its proxies as a victory and encourage them to militarily challenge US forces elsewhere.
Other repercussions? Iran / Syria are not ready to face a resurgent ISIS. Syria throughly bogged down in its civil war and fighting not only rebels, but Turkish intrusions, Kurds and Jordan. Iran is already deeply involved with the Gaza conflict and Houthi support. ISIS, the unintended consequences of forcing the US out of eastern Syria.