Posted on 11/17/2023 6:02:49 PM PST by SeekAndFind
A spanking new national survey of registered voters out on Thursday shows embattled Joe Biden trailing each of the top three Republican presidential candidates, which is significant. Even more significant, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley bested Biden by the largest margin of the three.
While there's quite a bit to unpack in the Marquette Law School national survey, there are also fundamental election factors at play that tend to hold in all elections. We'll hit those factors along the way.
Of consequence, the survey found Haley leading Biden, 55 percent to 45 percent, with former President Donald Trump topping the inept president, 52 percent to 48 percent, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis beating Biden with a 51 percent to 49 percent margin.
Likely Voters
I've often been amused by the amount of attention various candidates and their supporters pay to "snap polls," which are generally either online or 800-number proactive popularity surveys, as opposed to extensive, scientifically conducted surveys. Popularity surveys, if you will. Hence, one of the first criteria necessary for anyway-near-accurate poll results is that it be conducted among participants who are likely to vote.
Among likely voters, Haley's advantage over Biden raised to 12 points, 56-44. A potential Biden-DeSantis race doesn't change, while Trump drops by a point, 51 percent to Biden's 49 percent.
These results include undecided likely voters.
Crossover Voters
Hold onto your party's registered voters. So might read the fundamental objective of any election.
While all three potential Republican candidates blistered Biden in the survey, Haley and DeSantis came out on top. The results found Biden holding onto 85 percent of potential Democrat voters, with Haley and DeSantis at 96 percent of Republicans, and Trump holding 92 percent.
Net Favorability
In response to the question, "Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?" the survey found that only Haley was viewed more favorably than unfavorably, with a net favorable rating of +7. Trump and Trump and Biden at -19. However, it was noted in the poll that a number of voters said they weren't as familiar with Haley as with the other candidates and hadn't had time to formulate an opinion yet.
Overall Favorability
For Biden and Trump, 20 percent are unfavorable to both candidates. While more respondents have seen Biden favorably and Trump unfavorably in 10 of the last 13 polls, slightly more have seen Trump favorably and Biden unfavorably in the prior two polls in September and November.
Somewhat surprisingly, among GOP voters not favorable to Trump, Haley showed a commanding lead, capturing 37 percent of those voters, with 34 percent remaining undecided and just 10 percent favoring DeSantis.
Republican primary preferences differ sharply depending on the voters’ view of Trump. Unsurprisingly, Trump wins a large majority of voters who have a favorable view of him. Among those unfavorable to Trump, Haley is now the substantial leader with 37% support to DeSantis’ 10%, while 34% of these Republicans unfavorable to Trump remain undecided. Table 19 shows the full results.
So what does this all mean? Dunno — polls are snapshots in time.
But what I do know is winning a party's primary and losing in the general election results in second place every time. I also know there's a whole lot of water yet to flow under the proverbial bridge between now and November 5, 2024. In other words, stuff happens.
The extensive survey was conducted Nov. 2-7, 2023, among 856 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size was 668, with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points.
It's noteworthy that the poll was conducted before the uproar prompted by Haley's comments regarding social media anonymity earlier this week and before the last GOP primary debate. As I reported in a November 11 article titled "Post Debate: Ramaswamy Sells 'Scum' Campaign Merch, While Haley Hawks 'Heels Ammunition' Mug," the former South Carolina reduced herself to calling Vivek Ramaswamy "scum" after he called out daughter's use of TikTok.
While I join those who are rightly suspicious of TikTok's connection with Beijing, I prefer Republican candidates for president who leave to name-calling to the left.
This broad would be a disaster!
The Republiturd establishment needs their puppet!
I’m a very likely voter.
If it’s Nikki, I will undervote. There’s no sense electing a democrat with an R by her name. I still hope that someday, D’s will be blamed by the voters for the disaster they have created. If there’s a D with an R, the R’s will get the entire blame.
“Marquette Law School national survey” = no need to waste time reading any further ...
I always take “law school polls” with a grain of salt. We’re talkin’ liberal lawyers here.
This sounds like something insufferable Uniparty vermin would write in support of tyrannical birdbrain.
This is irrelevant. Joe Pedo won’t be running and neither will Nikki.
Haley is obviously a rat globalist.
Can we deport her?
Now that all the effort to advance DeSantis as the “only one who can beat Trump and then beat Biden” has failed, the GOPe/Never Trump brigade has attached itself to Nikki Failey.
After her stupid and ahistorical attack on Confederate monuments Haley will never get a single vote from below the Mason-Dixon line.
No.
New Marquette Law School national survey finds U.S.
WebNov 14, 2023 · MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 41% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing, while 59% disapprove. …
Marquette University
https://www.marquette.edu/news-center/2023/...
Marquette Law School Poll to release results of national …
WebNov 10, 2023 · MILWAUKEE — The Marquette Law School Poll will release over two days the results of its national survey of public opinion, Nov. 15-16, via written releases. On …
Marquette University
https://www.marquette.edu/news-center/2023/...
New Marquette Law School national survey finds …
WebOct 5, 2023 · MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds a close presidential race: former President Donald Trump receives 51% and President Joe Biden …
We’re doomed....
Nikki Haley is a 14th Amendment anchor baby, born to an Indian father and Indian mother, posing as a natural born citizen. There is nothing about being a natural born citizen in the 14th amendment.
When her father received his PhD degree in 1969, he moved his family to South Carolina, after accepting a position as a professor at Voorhees College, a historically black institution, Nimrata Haley (née Randhawa, was born January 20, 1972) known as Nikki Haley.
As per the Immigration and Nationality Act of 1952 of which which she was born, it clearly states one has to be a resident on file for a 5 year waiting period before applying to obtain Naturalization status, making it impossible for the parents to gain US citizenship prior to her birth.
Born on US soil to two US citizen parents only is the rule.
https://twitter.com/GOP_is_Gutless/status/1707354492151239032
This convinces me that ALL POLLS ARE BS.
I would sooner have CAmila than NIKKI.
President Nikki Harridan? No thanks.
So, (Putin & his mistress ort Xu & his wife) could be in the U.S. legally & the female drops a baby and that baby is an NBC, I don’t think so. The parents have to be citizens.
My observation is the Republican establishment has determined she is the most “controllable “ of all the candidates with even a remote chance of winning. De Santis has been sabotaged internally because he wasn’t. By no stretch of the imagination is Haley even remotely qualified to be the leader of the “free” world.”. She’s just a very ambitious squish who is selling her soul to the highest bidders.
She’s becoming a KAREN.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.