Posted on 11/17/2023 6:02:49 PM PST by SeekAndFind
A spanking new national survey of registered voters out on Thursday shows embattled Joe Biden trailing each of the top three Republican presidential candidates, which is significant. Even more significant, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley bested Biden by the largest margin of the three.
While there's quite a bit to unpack in the Marquette Law School national survey, there are also fundamental election factors at play that tend to hold in all elections. We'll hit those factors along the way.
Of consequence, the survey found Haley leading Biden, 55 percent to 45 percent, with former President Donald Trump topping the inept president, 52 percent to 48 percent, and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis beating Biden with a 51 percent to 49 percent margin.
Likely Voters
I've often been amused by the amount of attention various candidates and their supporters pay to "snap polls," which are generally either online or 800-number proactive popularity surveys, as opposed to extensive, scientifically conducted surveys. Popularity surveys, if you will. Hence, one of the first criteria necessary for anyway-near-accurate poll results is that it be conducted among participants who are likely to vote.
Among likely voters, Haley's advantage over Biden raised to 12 points, 56-44. A potential Biden-DeSantis race doesn't change, while Trump drops by a point, 51 percent to Biden's 49 percent.
These results include undecided likely voters.
Crossover Voters
Hold onto your party's registered voters. So might read the fundamental objective of any election.
While all three potential Republican candidates blistered Biden in the survey, Haley and DeSantis came out on top. The results found Biden holding onto 85 percent of potential Democrat voters, with Haley and DeSantis at 96 percent of Republicans, and Trump holding 92 percent.
Net Favorability
In response to the question, "Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?" the survey found that only Haley was viewed more favorably than unfavorably, with a net favorable rating of +7. Trump and Trump and Biden at -19. However, it was noted in the poll that a number of voters said they weren't as familiar with Haley as with the other candidates and hadn't had time to formulate an opinion yet.
Overall Favorability
For Biden and Trump, 20 percent are unfavorable to both candidates. While more respondents have seen Biden favorably and Trump unfavorably in 10 of the last 13 polls, slightly more have seen Trump favorably and Biden unfavorably in the prior two polls in September and November.
Somewhat surprisingly, among GOP voters not favorable to Trump, Haley showed a commanding lead, capturing 37 percent of those voters, with 34 percent remaining undecided and just 10 percent favoring DeSantis.
Republican primary preferences differ sharply depending on the voters’ view of Trump. Unsurprisingly, Trump wins a large majority of voters who have a favorable view of him. Among those unfavorable to Trump, Haley is now the substantial leader with 37% support to DeSantis’ 10%, while 34% of these Republicans unfavorable to Trump remain undecided. Table 19 shows the full results.
So what does this all mean? Dunno — polls are snapshots in time.
But what I do know is winning a party's primary and losing in the general election results in second place every time. I also know there's a whole lot of water yet to flow under the proverbial bridge between now and November 5, 2024. In other words, stuff happens.
The extensive survey was conducted Nov. 2-7, 2023, among 856 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size was 668, with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points.
It's noteworthy that the poll was conducted before the uproar prompted by Haley's comments regarding social media anonymity earlier this week and before the last GOP primary debate. As I reported in a November 11 article titled "Post Debate: Ramaswamy Sells 'Scum' Campaign Merch, While Haley Hawks 'Heels Ammunition' Mug," the former South Carolina reduced herself to calling Vivek Ramaswamy "scum" after he called out daughter's use of TikTok.
While I join those who are rightly suspicious of TikTok's connection with Beijing, I prefer Republican candidates for president who leave to name-calling to the left.
Haley sucks.
It figures.
All those millions of illegal aliens and their anchor baby spawn will vote for her because she is an anchor baby herself.
Foreigners have taken over the American empire. The collapse is right on schedule. /spit
The author claims to be:
Constitutional conservative, noted loather of hypocrisy, whataboutism, irrational bias, and ultracrepidarianism. Oh, and an insufferable pizza snob — Chicago-style, thin crust — of course.
Yet he endorses someone who is not a Natural Born Citizen, and thus is ineligible to hold either the office of President or Vice President.. How unconstitutional of him.
On top of that the Poll he uses is none other than Marquette Law School consisting of 856 people, and she doesn't come close to Donald Trump in the primaries even.
This is nothing but blah-blah-blah worthless garbage, with a, extra heavy dose of extremely wishful thinking.
Red State is a Never Trumper org.
I just saw Fox ask who in the audience is going to vote for her by raising up hands. Not one person raised their hands for her. Two raised their hand for DeSantis. All the rest raised their hand for Trump.
All hail the RINOcracy!
No thanks.
Taken before or after her comments regarding the internet?
She really damaged herself with that comment.
You are the RINO of RINOs if you voted for Ross Perot. Lots of very bad, society changing Court decisions as a result of the Clinton presidency...just to start with.
ROTFLMAO!!! As if anybody would believe this crap.
It's way past time for this nonsense to stop. Nikki Haley was born in the United States to parents legally within the United States. She is a natural born citizen. Period.
Hikki Naley? Please, no.
Nikki Haley is a natural born citizen. She was born in the United States to parents legally within the United States. It is what it meant at the time the term was written and has also been adjudicated multiple times. This is not debatable.
Wow, they’re hyping the crap out of her.
Hilarious.
so funny how they think they can entice us. “oooohhh.strong candidate. Nice yummy victory. Definitely will beat Biden. Yup. Just vote for Nikki. Landslide!”
I remember they tried the same thing with that dud Jeb Bush.
Reading the comments, looks like unanimous NO. However, this is the opinion of sane people. Who knows what the idiots who vote might do.
“Could It Be Nikki? New Poll of Likely Voters Shows Haley Besting Biden by Larger Margin Than Any Other GOP Candidate”
Remember how agitated we all got over Bush v. Gore, Bush v. Kerry, McCain v. Obama, ROMNEY v. Obama?
Think now how little difference who won actually made in the decline of our country.
Nimrata Randhawa Haley is the new chosen one, the one we all have to get crazy over, how if she doesn’t beat Newsom (I’m no longer discussing hypotheticals about Biden) it’s the end of all our dreams?
This is just a scheme to confine the realm of the possible into a tiny little range, from slightly left to slightly right while leaving all the important things off limits for discussion, because that would be DIVISIVE!
Look, DIVISION is the whole point of the exercise. Not phony division like Bush v. Kerry. REAL division - like, if we win, deportations start January 21, 2025 and if Congress objects, the President shall adjourn them until such time as he thinks proper (Article II, section 3) - at least eighteen months.
The Declaration imposes on the People a DUTY to abolish ineffective governments and to create new forms which seem - to us - most likely to effect our safety and our happiness.
Are you safe? Are you happy?
If there is a two person race between Newsom and Haley, the system should collapse, having reached the end of its possibilities.
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