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Core Inflation Cools To 4.8% In June >2x Target, REAL Wage Growth Finally Goes Positive (1.2% YoY) While RENT Inflation Still Roaring At 8% YoY (Taylor Rule Now Implies A Fed Target Rate Of 10.42%)
Confounded Interest ^ | 07/12/2023 | Anthony B. Sanders

Posted on 07/12/2023 5:53:36 AM PDT by Kaiser8408a

As M2 Money growth has stalled, we are seeing inflation cool a bit. Core inflation YoY is now down to 4.8% (still >2x Fed target).

The good news? REAL average hourly earnings YoY is finally positive for the second time under Bidenomics. It is now 1.2% YoY. Too bad rent CPI, typically the largest expense for Americans, is still up 8% YoY.

The Taylor Rule, given 4.8% core inflation, gives us a Fed Funds Target rate of 10.42%. So, yes, it looks like Powell and the Gang have more work to do.

(Excerpt) Read more at confoundedinterest.net ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Food; Government; Politics
KEYWORDS: biden; fed; inflation; rent
Bidenomics at work.
1 posted on 07/12/2023 5:53:36 AM PDT by Kaiser8408a
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To: Kaiser8408a

Oh wait until you read todays headlines.....

This is about as good it gets for Bidenomics.

MSM will not disappoint.


2 posted on 07/12/2023 5:57:36 AM PDT by MrRelevant
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To: Kaiser8408a

Biden sanctions at work:

MOSCOW, July 11. /TASS/. The inflation level in Russia is currently among the lowest across the world, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said on Tuesday at the meeting on economic issues.

“Inflation remains moderate. It stood at 2.9% from January to early July, which is much lower than last-year values,” Mishustin said. Inflation in annual terms is not above 3.5%, he noted.

“This is among the lowest indicators globally at present,” the prime minister stressed.

The situation on the Russian labor market is also stable, Mishustin noted. “The unemployment rate is kept since February at a record level of 3.2%,” he added.


3 posted on 07/12/2023 6:04:28 AM PDT by hardspunned (Former DC GOP globalist stooge)
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To: Kaiser8408a

I guess people not paying their rent or mortgages for a year or so continues to bite the consumer in the rear end.


4 posted on 07/12/2023 6:06:07 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: hardspunned

The ruble has dropped in value from 52 to the dollar last year, to about 90+ to the dollar this year.

Inflation within the country is one thing. The second that their markets re-open to foreign investment, the Russian economy is going to go into a Depression as dollars that were locked into their system run away.

So, yeah, if you are a Russian...inflation may be low. But it is artificially low. I would not want to be there over the next couple of years.

Putin is not working towards peace because he is stubborn—but because any opening of his economy would quickly lead to a revolution.


5 posted on 07/12/2023 6:09:23 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: Kaiser8408a

In the last two months, my car insurance went up 25% and homeowner’s insurance went up 18%. Where’s Kevin Bacon in the ROTC uniform to calm everything down?


6 posted on 07/12/2023 6:33:36 AM PDT by Bernard ("No matter where you go, there you are." (Buckaroo Banzai))
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To: Kaiser8408a

If they can coverup ALL of the veggie’s and his family treason crimes they sure can make up lies of the economy! It’s so easy they have powerful ILLEGAL tools they can use…..THEY ARE EVIL!!! THE MOST DESPICABLE Despise hated government departments in America are the FBI, the CIA and the DOJ. These are criminal entities that need to be removed at all costs. These government department are killing our nation.


7 posted on 07/12/2023 6:42:38 AM PDT by RoseofTexas
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To: Vermont Lt

Yeah, right. More of BS and lies we’ve been told by media/gubmint.


8 posted on 07/12/2023 6:44:21 AM PDT by hardspunned (Former DC GOP globalist stooge)
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To: Kaiser8408a

The calculation of these metrics needs to take place out in the open and be continually audited. The left will cheat with statistics just like they cheat with elections.


9 posted on 07/12/2023 6:48:47 AM PDT by Socon-Econ (adi)
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To: Bernard

but realtors will tout that as a good thing since you’re still ‘building equity’


10 posted on 07/12/2023 6:52:41 AM PDT by millenial4freedom (The Democrat Party thinks men can menstruate! How can it possibly be right about everything else?)
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To: Kaiser8408a

On the other hand, Unemployment is 3.6%, headline inflation is 3.0%, the stock market is breaking out above a long term range, and the Fed Chair is going to Dead & Company shows.


11 posted on 07/12/2023 7:08:02 AM PDT by babble-on
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To: Kaiser8408a

Lies.


12 posted on 07/12/2023 7:12:49 AM PDT by cowboyusa (YESHUA IS KING OF AMERICA! AMERICA FIRST! DEATH TO MARXISM AND GLOBALISM! )
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To: Socon-Econ

The inflation calculation data is all public, both the inputs and methodology are posted here:

https://www.bls.gov/cpi/

There is room to cheat, but not that much. The biggest cheat is in the open, which is core inflation excludes food and energy prices.


13 posted on 07/12/2023 7:46:21 AM PDT by Wayne07
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To: Wayne07
core inflation excludes food and energy prices

Costs that are a bigger percentage of the average person's budget than, lets say Hollywood and Washington insiders.

Which is why we get all the woke and climate change rhetoric. It's a smokescreen for how much they're screwing the public.

14 posted on 07/12/2023 7:53:26 AM PDT by P.O.E. (Pray for America.)
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To: hardspunned

The currency exchanges are not media spin.

You might not like the facts…but there they are.

The international value of the ruble has been cut in half in the last year.

Russian markets are not open for foreign investment—you cannot sell and remove funds. That dam will break when the war ends.

Russian employment numbers will take a hit for years to come from the impacts of the war. Demographicly, Russia was an aging and unhealthy population before the war. Killing and maiming a couple hundred thousand men will have a significant impact on replacing those who will die out in the next ten years or so. The impact of the war will be measured in the millions of people NOT in the workforce in 25-30 years.

Those are all facts. You might not like them, but there they are.

How this plays out over the next couple of years is speculation. But very few “empires” have survived those kinds of pressures without decline.


15 posted on 07/12/2023 7:58:33 AM PDT by Vermont Lt
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To: Wayne07

Headline inflation does not exclude food and energy prices.


16 posted on 07/12/2023 8:09:51 AM PDT by babble-on
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To: P.O.E.

Are you missing the point that core inflation is higher than headline inflation that includes food and energy prices.


17 posted on 07/12/2023 8:10:49 AM PDT by babble-on
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To: babble-on

That makes it even worse. That means less money for food & fuel as a percentage of take-home pay.


18 posted on 07/12/2023 9:02:56 AM PDT by P.O.E. (Pray for America.)
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To: babble-on

“Headline inflation does not exclude food and energy prices.”

Which, not ironically, is why the literal headline is about core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices.


19 posted on 07/12/2023 11:09:55 AM PDT by Wayne07
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