Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
If Iran or one of Iran's proxies sink a few ships in the strait of Hormuz or a few select other ones, the trip around the Cape of Good Hope will be a bargain. Cargo Operations know this - they're playing the long game.
Merry Christmas and thank you to all who work so hard on this thread.
Tomorrow being Christmas, I’ll be standing down for the day - barring any earthshaking event. Have a merry Christmas with your friends and families.
Globalism / Great Reset –
At one time derided as for ‘doomsdayers’, bunkers are becoming mainstream - especially for the rich. Mark Zuckerberg is building a 5,000 square-foot doomsday bunker in his sprawling Hawaii compound. He’s far from the only billionaire living in fear of what they all call ‘The Event’.
Will it be global environmental breakdown? Societal collapse (probably accelerated by the technology some of them built)? Nuclear war? Standard practice is showing that they are stocked for a one year minimum self-sustainment.
RELATED - The World Economic Forum (WEF) and its fellow unelected globalist leaders are pushing for governments around the world to phase out fossil fuels. Leading experts have spoken out against their plans and are warning the public that the WEF’s “Net Zero” goal to eliminate fossil fuels will result in the deaths of over four billion people or more.
The “Net Zero” target to end fossil fuel use is part of the WEF and UN’s “Agenda 2030” and “Agenda 2050” plans for humanity and involves dramatically reducing fossil reliance by 2030 and completely eliminating their use by 2050.
Danish statistician Bjørn Lomborg is just one who has warned that ending fossil fuel use will lead to the deaths of around half of the world’s population through starvation alone.
“4 billion people are dependent on fossil fertilizer for food,” Lomborg notes. “Without, 4 billion will starve to death. “
https://expose-news.com/2023/12/23/experts-warn-wefs-net-zero-goals-will-kill-4-billion-people/
Neil Record reported: “If we literally just stopped using fossil fuels and “did without the natural resources on which the world, its economies and populations depend, most likely six billion people would die within a year.”
(Global power failure similar to the “One Second After” scenario)
Members of the WEF have repeatedly suggested that mass reductions in the number of humans on earth would help the organization reach its green agenda goals, and as Slay News has reported, Dennis Meadows who is a “celebrated member of the WEF, has called for a staggering 86 percent reduction in the population of humans.
https://slaynews.com/news/wef-member-90-population-reduction-solve-globalists-problems/
OBSERVATION - Speculation on what globalist powers that be have up their sleeves has been floating around out there for years. The now extinct, Georgia Guide Stones stated that the world would be drastically depopulated to around 500 million. Additionally include the Deagel’s 2025 Depopulation Forecast as well as WEF commentary and things get interesting.
Once again, some of the sources I cited need to be held away from the body a bit, but they do cover similar statements publicly made for years now. The global elite are preparing for something devastating and some evidence suggests that this “event” is coming soon. I concur, something big is on the horizon, but I don’t think the ‘elite’ will get away from its impact the way they indicate that they will.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Pro-hamas demonstrations focused on Christmas related events yesterday. A highway to Chicago O’Hare International Airport was blocked by pro-Palestine demonstrators just ahead of Christmas Eve rush.
Thousands of Pro-Palestine protestors took to the streets of Manhattan’s 5th Avenue for a protest themed “NO CHRISTMAS AS USUAL”. As the streets are filled with holiday shoppers as well.
More protests are planned for today and Christmas Day. The next big target time period for protests will likely be New Years Eve and Day. After this the holiday season will fast disappear in the rear view mirror, meaning that the pro-hamas consortium will have to find new venues to protest to maintain their momentum. Recent protests have accomplished a couple things. First, to intimidate the average citizen and second create negative feed back to their cause.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Maintain alert status through the rest of the holiday season.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
US lead ‘coalition’ to protect Red Sea shipping is falling apart fast.
POLITICAL FRONT –
See efforts to keep the infamous Chinese balloon under wraps from the citizens under biden/harris watch below.
Biden / Harris Watch –
On a Friday evening last January, Gen. Glen VanHerck, the Air Force commander in charge of defending American airspace from foreign intrusion, called President Joe Biden’s top military adviser, Gen. Mark Milley.
U.S. intelligence officials had just notified the general that for roughly 10 days they had been tracking a mysterious — and enormous — object flying over the Asia-Pacific, VanHerck told Milley. The object had crossed into U.S. airspace over Alaska and VanHerck said he planned to dispatch military jets to fly alongside it and assess what it was.
Administration officials at first hoped to conceal the balloon’s existence from the public, and from Congress, according to multiple former and current administration and congressional officials.
OBSERVATION - How in the heck to categorize this mongazo? What a bunch of clowns in the military and WH - let the thing fly over and keep it secret. smh
Illegal Immigration –
Biden administration is allowing illegal immigrants to travel around the country with nothing but their arrest warrants as identification. The migrants obtain the warrants when they are arrested for illegally crossing the border. The TSA confirmed to Fox News that yes, this form of identification is all that’s required.
TSA claims these illegals receive ‘additional screening’, but there is no evidence of this.
OBSERVATION - This story has been out there for over a month but has reappeared on the radar following reports of commercial flights filling up with these non-documented illegals being shipped to parts unknown in the US.
American citizens have to undergo a lot of screening just to get on a flight, special access ways have been created for these illegals.
China –
A top secret Chinese spaceplane that launched into orbit last week is sending strong signals over North America. The craft - dubbed Shenlong after a spirit dragon from Chinese mythology - has released six mysterious objects after reaching the Earth’s orbit for the third time in three years.
Amateur astronomer Scott Tilley has been tracking the plane and examining the signals they have been emitting. He told DailyMail.com they appear to be sending the strongest signals while passing over North America.
OBSERVATION - Clone of the US spaceplane.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Closing in on the two year mark for the Ukraine war, analysts evaluating the force posture of the Russian army see the wear and tear on its command structure. Officers of all grades, particularly higher grades, have been lost in large numbers - leaving units with undertrained and unexperienced officers to continue the attacks.
The body of active duty has been sustained thru almost continuous but low grade mobilization actions. But these only supply meat. Training and equipment of these forces is reportedly abysmal. Increase use of hardened criminals in prisons for ‘shock’ troops continues to rise. So, even though Russian forces still outnumber Ukraine forces, they continue to be incapable of successful major operations, losing massive numbers of armor and personal for minimal gains.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
RUMINT – Ukraine to receive the first of its F-16s before the end of the year.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 of 15 Shahed drones, launched by Russia.
Russia renewed attacks around Adviivka and the bridgeheads across the Dniper River near Kherson.
Rumors that following the shoot down of 3 SU-34 fighter-bombers, Russia stopped flying ground attack sorties. They were flying in neighborhood of 40-60 per day.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations, resulting in very little significant combat overnight.
Russia’s air force appears to be standing down for the moment. The unexpected appearance of Patriot systems in an area the once had mostly free reign has shocked the command. Analysts are noting that once the F-16s become operational, Russian air power will suffer further in that the F-16 likely will operate within cover of Patriot systems - enabling them to hit Russian positions while the Patriots keep Russian fighters at bay.
This Patriot/F-16 combination could become decisive if /when Ukraine attempts its winter offensive campaign.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Increased fighting in Central Gaza
- Houthi and Iran launch strikes on shipping.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Numbers and intensity of airstrikes in central Gaza have increased the past few days as the focus of IDF ground operation shift from N Gaza southward.
***
The IDF has allegedly informed Egypt of its intention to occupy the Rafah border area and asked Egyptian soldiers to evacuate the area, Arab media reported.
The report also stated that the IDF emphasized to the Egyptians that from now on the IDF would not be responsible for the security of Egyptian forces in the area, while the IDF is attempting to occupy the border area, and emphasized that the military operation in the area will continue whether Egypt agrees or rejects it.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Border fight continues with little change as Hezbollah continues to fire mortars and ATGMs along the Lebanon border, with IDF artillery and air strikes in response.
Israel continues to strike more important Hezbollah combat facilities besides those immediately firing on IDF units. The increasing depth and target set continues to indicate Israel is working to shape the battle field for an eventual strike into S Lebanon in the near future.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Maritime security firm Ambrey reports that a ship affiliated with Israel that had been sailing off the coast of India was attacked by a UAV. The attacking aircraft was believed to have been launched from Iran, among the first direct steps Iran has taken against Israel throughout the war.
The vessel attacked was a chemical freighter flying a Liberian flag. Ambrey reports that it had last called in Saudi Arabia, and was destined for India. After the attack, the vessel called the Indian Air Force for assistance, and Indian aircraft and warships were dispatched to provide assistance.
The crew and ship were determined to be safe despite the attack.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned they could force the closure of waterways other than the Red Sea if “America and its allies continue committing crimes” in Gaza.
“They shall soon await the closure of the Mediterranean Sea, (the Strait of) Gibraltar and other waterways,” Tasnim quoted Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, coordinating commander of the Guards, as saying.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces actions through out the West Bank to capture/neutralize Hamas and related terrorists. Skirmishes reported in several locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iranian backed militia in Iraq attempted to fire a drone toward Israel overnight.
Iran fired anti-ship drone at a tanker in the Indian Ocean.
According to U.S. Central Command, the USS Laboon (DDG-58) an Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyer with Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea conducted a shoot down of 4 one-way attack drones launched by the Houthi Terrorist Group in Yemen towards International Shipping Lanes in the Region; the shoot downs followed the detection of 2 anti-ship ballistic missiles being launched into the Red Sea from Houthi Controlled-Territory which resulted in no damage or casualties
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Allied shipping defense under Operation Prosperity Garden is hitting the rocks.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete. Action now is almost elatively routine.
Search and destroy operations moving into Central Gaza. Hamas and affiliated forces are running out of maneuver space. They are reports to be putting up a fight, but are vastly out gunned and out maneuvered.
Houthi and Iran are calling the US’ bluff on Operation Prosperity Garden. With ‘coalition’ forces refusing to operate under US command, the Sec State, Sec Def and Sec Trans (?!?) are trying to fight this battle. There is no apparent plan by the US other than to try to swat drones down and nothing to strike launch and drone/missile storage areas.
This very apparent US weakness is made worse by Iran attacking shipping in the Red Sea. They have nothing to fear from US retaliation as they seen the US basically sitting on their hands from all the other “ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” attacks. This is not going to end well as sooner or later one of our ships will be hit, likely by a swarm attack of dozens of these drones and anti-shipping missiles. Houthi and Iran have no fear of retaliation at the moment. And lacking real coordination with ‘allied’ naval vessels only makes matters worse.
Iran’s threat to close off the Med at the straits of Gibraltar is interesting and more likely propaganda than actual potential. It is possible that IRGC forces in coordination with islamic rebels in Morocco - however, that country broke relations in 2022 after it was revealed that Hezbollah guided forces (polisario ) were training to overthrow the govt.
Algeria is known to be on good terms with Iran. Algeria’s role as a facilitator of Iran’s destabilization acts in North Africa is pretty well established and is now considered to be the new base of Iranian influence in Africa. Algeria could serve as a launching base for anti-shipping drones, being well within range of the Straits of Gibraltar, and thus able to make good this threat.
One thing is certain. biden’s bumbling foreign policy is only making matters worse.
Iran –
See Israel above - shooting at and hitting oil vessel in the Indian Ocean.
Iraq -
See Israel - Iranian backed militia attempted to fire a drone at Israel.
Someday, if history is a guide, these people will be looked at like the Nazis or Stalin.
There was no peace on earth yesterday, so today’s post is quite long.
Globalism / Great Reset –
TMobile has quietly updated their TOS to include fines for content they don’t agree with. Beginning on January 1, 2024, they will be fining users who commit perceived violations on their bandwidth.
S.H.A.F.T. is an acronym that stands for Sex, Hate, Alcohol, Firearms, and Tobacco. It outlines the categories of text messages specifically regulated due to moral and legal issues and is monitored and enforced by the Cellular Telephone Industries Association (CTIA) and the mobile carriers.
OBSERVATION - TMobile is following the desires of the WEF overlords in not only monitoring your communications- in particular your text messages - but in enforcing what they define as ‘hate’. This becomes just another actor for the govt - that nasty private/public partnership to quell anything contrary to the narrative. This will likely be challenged in court as the CTIA is not a legal, governmental body. it will likely cause users who may be concerned to use encrypted messaging to prevent viewing - a action that TMobile et al may just flat out block as a pushback.
***
Speaking of censorship -
The European Union (EU) launched “formal infringement proceedings” into X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter owned by Big Tech mogul Elon Musk, accusing it of failing to counter illicit content and disinformation, a lack of transparency about advertising and “deceptive” design practices. The European Commission’s executive branch also vowed to permanently shut it down if the platform doesn’t immediately ban alternative media.
“The evidence we currently have is enough to formally open a proceeding against X,” Margrethe Vestager, the 27-nation bloc’s executive vice president overseeing digital policy, said in a statement. “The Commission will carefully investigate X’s compliance with the [Digital Services Act] DSA, to ensure European citizens are safeguarded online.”
The announcement of the probe comes weeks after the microblogging site was asked to provide assurances that it was complying with the terms of the European bloc’s DSA, a regulation to update the Electronic Commerce Directive 2000 regarding illegal content, transparent advertising, and disinformation. It was submitted along with the Digital Markets Act by the European Commission to the European Parliament and the Council in December 2020. Under the law, which came into effect in August, a company can be fined up to six percent of its annual global income or banned from operating in the EU if it is found to have breached the sweeping legislation.
https://www.naturalnews.com/2023-12-25-eu-to-shut-down-x-if-independent-media-isnt-banned.html
OBSERVATION - Threats from the EU on censorship related issues have hit other platforms over the past few years. In many instances media like facebook has rolled over to their demands. However, as X is a US based company, international threats are interesting as it has protection under US laws IIRC.
This has little to do with Europeans, but very much everything to censor US users - an enforcement of a ‘law’ that we have no means to address.
Write this down as another effort of the globalists - whom the EU are in bed with - to shut down all forms of free speech. This is building to be one of the big battles - free speech - that is building for 2024.
***
The war on farming ramps up in Europe. Already seething in the Netherlands and France, it has expanded to Germany. The German government’s CO2 price increase beginning from January 2024 will make petrol, heating and electricity more expensive.
Already Germany’s industry is shrinking rapidly and farmers are now protesting nationally due to high fuels costs. These protests are rapidly expanding and a national day of protest in planned for January 8, 2024. Many of the working class are expected to join in.
Currently the price is 30 euros per ton and it will rise to 45 euros per ton beginning in 2024.
OBSERVATION - The attack on agriculture is hitting a tipping point in Europe with outsized increases in fuel costs as well as restrictions on the use of fertilizers and other methane “sources” (i.e. cow farts). The estimates that the German Agriculture industry will lose 1 Billion euros with the new laws.
You control food - you control the population.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
See “Black Swans” below on potential regime supported event that could trigger components of a CW2 scenario
***
Interesting demographic shift of the Great Migration. During the past several years, we have seen a mass exodus of conservatives from blue states. For example, Fox News is reporting that 65 percent of those that have recently moved to the state of Idaho are Republicans, and only 12 percent are Democrats
***
Protesters entered the Tacoma Mall and followed through with their planned demonstration and disrupting holiday shoppers. Antifa and people associated with the Black Panther party are marching through the mall and trying to get others to join. They want vengeance after three Tacoma Police officers were acquitted in the Manny Ellis trial.
***
NYC thrown into chaos on Christmas as pro-Palestine protesters clashed with police. Reports of multiple police officers injured and protesters shouting “Allahu Akbar”
New York Police Department issued a Level Three mobilization for the large protest. Numerous altercations have broken out between the two resulting in reported injuries to multiple officers. The extent of the injuries is currently unknown at this time. Police have also reportedly made multiple arrests
NOTE - anonymous source at the NYPD is warning that Pro hamas and Pro Palestinians protesters and rioters are planning to riot on New Years Eve in NYC. The source stated that the rioters are planning to stress out the cities resources. Keep in mind every new year’s the threat level is elevated due to terriost threats.
Pro-hamas protestors disrupted other Christmas events around the country saying that there will be no Christmas until there is a cease fire and Israel is eliminated.
OBSERVATION - New Years will be the last big public celebration for a while and the turn towards violence over the Christmas weekend suggests that even more violence will occur in key cities like NYC that night.
***
RELATED - The Answer Coalition posted video of Shut it Down for Palestine agitators staging a demonstration outside of Biden’s Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s home and that of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Christmas morning.
They blocked the road in front of Austin’s home and blasted their demands on megaphones and loudspeakers.
They said that “protesters rally on Christmas morning outside the home of ‘Defense’ Secretary Lloyd Austin, a key participant in the genocide in Gaza. No Xmas during genocide! End all U.S. aid to Israel! Ceasefire now!”
“Austin we are at your gate!” They chanted through megaphones. “Justice is our only fate!” The protesters had podiums covered with blood emblazoned with the logo of defense contractor Lockheed Martin. They waved Palestinian flags and carries signs saying “Palestine will be free.”
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Maintain alert status through the rest of the holiday season.
***
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., revealed that her home was swatted on Christmas, with her family present
“They know who did it. A man named Ben McLean did it and offered an absurd excuse, and he has not been arrested. The lack of urgency is jaw-dropping. McLean said he wasn’t going to hurt anybody, so it’s all good.”
Other congress critters and high profile media types were also swatted over the holiday in what appears to be a coordinated action.
***
A record number of individuals of interest on the watch list have also been attempting entry at U.S. ports of entry on either the northern or southern border.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
The World Health Organization (WHO) issued a global outbreak alert on Friday due to a significant rise in dengue fever cases.
This alarming increase has seen cases surge 10-fold, from approximately 500,000 to 5.2 million globally, marking an unprecedented peak in the disease’s spread. Notably, 129 countries have reported cases, nearing a historic high. The majority of these infections have occurred in the Americas.
Dengue fever is primarily transmitted to humans through infected mosquitoes, with urban and semi-urban areas being the most affected. While most dengue cases are asymptomatic or result in mild illness, some can lead to severe complications, including shock, severe bleeding, organ impairment and even death.
In the United States, at least 225 dengue cases were reported by August 2023, with Florida being the primary location for these infections.
OBSERVATION - Some claiming global warming the cause. Interesting that the outbreak in Florida seems to coincide with the release of Bill Gates’ genetically modified mosquitoes. With the northern hemisphere in winter, outbreaks this summer are speculative at best.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The RNC has hit the rocks with less than $10 million in the coffers as Rona McDaniel’s mismanagement and appropriations of funds for her own use have come out. 2023 she spent over $2 million on personal and other wasteful expenses. This is on top of an already anemic RNC response and support of republican candidates - specifically only those who fall into the squishy RINO mode of here uncle - Mitt Romney. Her partisan mismanagement has caused calls for her ouster to increase as donations to the RNC have decreased.
***
Interesting article on reviewing the hags on the “View”. Intellectually challenged arrogant ignoramuses with delusions of adequacy, they speak a lot of what the left is thinking and desiring. In the article linked below, they reflect the current considerations of leftists to destroy the constitution if necessary to bring Trump down - to preserve their definition of ‘democracy’.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Frustration that President Biden is trailing former President Trump in polls despite a growing economy is building at the White House.
Biden’s approval ratings have been low for more than a year, but recent polls have found him trailing Trump, the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination, in a head-to-head match-up and in key swing states.
OBSERVATION - The next few month will be key for biden to turn the corner and regain any kind of advantage, but there are major land mines ahead. The potential of a (redefined) recession, another military debacle in the middle east, increased chaos and push back from the open borders policy, hunter’s legal woes, etc. Would a ‘false flag’ or ‘Black Swan’ event help them? We have only months to find out.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Microsoft is highlighting new state-sponsored attacks originating from Iran, specifically targeting employees within the US defense industrial base (DIB) organizations. These attacks are attributed to Peach Sandstorm, also known as APT33, a group believed to be backed by the Iranian government and active across various sectors globally since at least 2013.
The recent activity involves the deployment of a newly developed backdoor named FalseFont, allowing remote access to compromised systems, file execution, and data exfiltration to a command-and-control server. Microsoft observed this backdoor in November 2023 and notes ongoing improvements in Peach Sandstorm’s tactics.
Prior warnings from Microsoft detailed APT33’s password spray attacks targeting numerous organizations, emphasizing the importance of resetting passwords, enhancing identity security measures, and employing multi-factor and passwordless authentication to mitigate risks.
Illegal Immigration –
There is a huge caravan of mostly Central American and Caribbean migrants walking from southern Mexico with the goal of reaching the U.S.-Mexico border. There are thousands of people in the caravan.
Reuters reported that they walked from the southern border city Tapachula on Sunday to arrive in Alvaro Obregon to spend Christmas Eve in a public square and then continue walking north to cross Mexico until they reach the U.S. border.
8,000 people per day from one caravan. The southern border is already seeing daily averages of 8,000 to up to 10,000 illegal immigrants per day on a regular basis. It is an historic level of illegal immigration yet the Biden administration is deliberately allowing it to become the new normal.
OBSERVATION - These ‘caravans’ have been on the go since biden regime took power three years ago. Initially propaganda, these surges in illegals have become a persistent tsunami that have overwhelmed the border and our country. This ‘caravan’ contains just ONE day’s worth of crossing. Thus, at one time a few years ago this was incredible, it now pales in comparison to the vast numbers pouring across the border now.
Russia -
Hopefully I can get some time soon to reassess Russia’s current status
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
RUMINT – Ukraine has received the first of its F-16s.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Actually covers Christmas as well.
Weather continues to dominate action.
Long range game played big time over the holiday and last night
Explosions are noted near the occupied Crimea. Massive secondary explosions. Russian Ministry of Defense confirms Ukrainian hit the “Novocherkassk” (BDK-46), a Ropucha-Class Amphibious Landing Ship during the Attack. This ship barely escaped in March 24, 2022, the strikes in Russian-occupied Berdyansk, when her sister ship Saratov was sunk in the harbor. According to Telegram channels, a ship with Iranian ammunition was allegedly blown up. Massive, secondary explosions seem to confirm that information. Ship was docked at port facilities of Feodosia, Crimea - on the other side for the peninsula from Sebastanolpol.
Morning videos of the pier show the ship destroyed to the water line.
Russia’s Ministry of Defence said the large landing ship Novocherkassk was struck by Ukrainian aircraft carrying guided missiles.
The head of the Ukrainian Air Force said earlier its warplanes had destroyed the ship.
Map showing location of Feodosia in BBC link below
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/B10C/production/_132142354_ukrainemap.png.webp
Sunday - Ukrainian air defense shot down 28 of 31 Shahed drones, Kh-59 and Kh-31P missiles, Su-34 and Su-30SM planes!
Monday, Ukrainian Air defense shot down Kh-59 missile in Kryvyi Rih district. Ukrainian air defense also shot down 13 of 19 Shahed drones overnight.
Ukrainian Air Force claims to have downed another Russian Su-34 Monday in the Mariupol sector. General Staff has also confirmed the destruction of an Su-30 fighter jet over the Black Sea. The aircraft was part of the 43rd Independent Marine Attack Aviation Regiment, which is based in the village of Novofedorovka near Sak and is the main strike air component of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Ukraine is developing a longer-range version of its ground-launched Neptune cruise missile. The current Neptune has been frequently used to attack targets deep inside Russian occupied territory, or ships at sea and in harbor in the Black Sea.
The new version is called Long Neptune and is literally a longer version of the current 5.05-meter (nearly 17 foot), 895 kg (nearly a ton) Neptune missile with a 159 kg warhead and max range of 250 kilometers. The United States did the same thing with their similar Harpoon missile. Long Neptune will have a range of about 360 kilometers.
Crimean front —
Besides what was noted above, explosions were reported in Sevastopol
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian Territory –
Partisan Resistance ——
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations, resulting in very little significant combat overnight.
The deep hits against Russia continue. Two more of Russia’s front line fighters Su-30 and Su-34 taken down by probable Patriot system. Ukraine has been very smart in how it has deployed Patriot systems. The first batteries were in the NE region where upon activation they took out several helicopters and several fighter jets well into Russian territory. Since that time, Russia has ceased major air attacks in that sector.
Now a massive what both sides are calling an ‘airstrike’ taking out one of Russia’s few remaining large amphibious landing ships that they have been using to shuttle munitions and other supplies into southeastern Ukraine. The important note is “airstrike”. Look at the map at the link above and you see that Ukrainian aircraft would have had to penetrate a considerable distance there and back to strike Feodosia, and apparently do it unopposed by Russian ADA assets. Not even F-16 are that invincible and invisible.
One last take is if Ukraine can hit a target like Feodosia, the Kerch Strait Bridge is very vulnerable as a strike the size that took out the “Novocherkassk” could have easily disabled the bridge.
There may be some translation issues, and the attack conducted by British cruise missile systems. Still - no apparent response from Russian ADA to take them down. Leaves a lot of questions unanswered.
Bottom line is the Russian air force is facing a new challenge in the sky having lost 5 irreplaceable modern jets in just a few days and the Black Sea fleet eating another big loss.
I expect Russia to mobilize for a large drone/ballastic/cruise missile barrage in the coming days.
Europe / NATO General –
Several Muslim suspects have been arrested in France, Germany and Austria for allegedly planning Christmas terror attacks, according to reports, which say there’s a “very high level of terrorist threat” from Islamic terrorists in France. Spain is also on alert.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Serbian police used tear gas to stop hundreds of supporters of the opposition from entering the city council building in the capital in protest of what election spectators said were “widespread vote irregularities.”
On Sunday, thousands of activists gathered in the center of Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, in an anti-government demonstration to request the annulment of parliamentary and local elections that international election observers claimed were “unfair.”
Preliminary results from the state election commission show that the ruling populist Serbian Progressive party (SNS) received 46.72% of the vote in last weekend’s snap parliamentary elections.
According to an international monitoring mission on Monday, President Aleksandar Vučić’s improper influence, media bias, and voting irregularities, such as vote buying, gave the SNS an unfair advantage.
On Sunday, Vučić announced that the allegations were false statements supported by the political opposition. In addition, he stated that the turmoil was instigated by foreign nations. Calling the unrest a ‘color revolution’.
Speaking to the country amid the demonstration outside Belgrade Town Hall, Vučić referred to the protesters as “thugs” who wouldn’t be able to topple the government and declared, “This is not a revolution.”
OBSERVATION - Vote tampering by the ruling party. This has stirred growing discontent in Serbia with increasingly violent protests. This internal challenge to Vucic’s rule will turn his attentions inward and away from Kosovo for a while.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Fierce fighting in Central and southern Gaza with some of the heaviest bombing in weeks.
- Direct involvement by Iran in attacking an Israeli associated tanker in the Indian Sea threatens to expand the conflict
- US ‘coalition’ in the Red Sea has spun apart with major allies running their own convoying operations.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel is being attacked from seven separate theaters amid the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip, and the military has so far responded in six of them.b”We are in a multi-front war, we are being attacked from seven different arenas: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, [the West Bank], Iraq, Yemen, and Iran,” says Gallant at a meeting of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. “We have already responded and acted in six of these areas, and I say here in the most clear way, anyone who acts against us is a potential target, there is no immunity for anyone,” he adds.
***
Hamas and Islamic Jihad terror groups operating in Gaza have rejected an Egyptian-led truce proposal with Israel that would see the militants relinquish power in return for an end to the war, sources say.
The terrorists, who conducted the Oct. 7 massacre in Israel, have refused to take part in one of the biggest conditions laid out by negotiators in Cairo on Sunday: an end to Hamas’ reign in Gaza by forming a Palestinian parliament and holding free elections, according to two Egyptian security sources.
The terrorist organizations instead reiterated that the only thing they’re ready to discuss is a prisoner swap that would see more than 100 Israeli hostages released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners being held in Israel’s jails.
***
The Israeli army announces the deaths of two soldiers killed during fighting in the northern Gaza Strip, bringing the toll of slain troops in the ground offensive against Hamas to 156.
***
Speaking from his underground bunker, Hamas leader in Gaza makes first statement since Oct. 7.The architect of the massacre said Hamas was facing “fierce, violent and unprecedented battle” against Israel, but that his forces were “crushing” the IDF. He also claimed that Hamas has killed over 1,000 Israeli soldiers.
***
Israeli forces have reportedly killed some 8,000 Palestinian fighters in the Gaza war, a military spokesperson said on Sunday, adding that the figure was drawn from accounts of targeted strikes and battlefield tallies as well as the interrogations of captives.
***
On Sunday, the IDF released multiple videos of the tunnels, which were discovered by troops from the intelligence and engineering corps, and which revealed large, cavernous command rooms, toilets, and work spaces. They also retrieved the bodies of 5 hostages that were murdered by Hamas.
***
Egypt proposed a new outline for a hostage release deal on Sunday that would see Hamas release 40 Israelis taken into the Gaza Strip in exchange for a 14-day truce, Israeli and foreign media reported. Hamas has reportedly rejected the plan.
***
Hamas opened fire on civilians trying to get food from a relief truck, killing a boy and injuring others. The crowds later retaliated by burning down a Hamas/Palestinian police station.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Overnight combat centered on several areas. N Gaza around the Jabilia camp, C Gaza around Bureij and S Gaza in Khan Younis .
The Israeli Air Force struck more than 100 Hamas targets in the southern Gaza Strip overnight, in preparation for expanded ground operations in the area, the military says. According to the Israeli army, the targets included tunnel shafts, military sites, and other infrastructure used by Hamas operatives to target Israeli forces.
***
IDF sources tell the Wall St Journal that they were surprised at the vastness of Hamas military infrastructure in S Gaza. They have found more tunnels and weapons than expected. Sources indicated that this will cause operations to go on for potentially several months to search and destroy all Hamas and affiliated terror groups.
Hamas rocket launches into Israel have diminished, but have not stopped entirely, as the Israeli counter-offensive has advanced.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Border fight continues with little change as Hezbollah continues to fire mortars and ATGMs along the Lebanon border, with IDF artillery and air strikes in response.
Israeli media reported that a Hezbollah command center has been attacked. “The IDF says fighter jets have hit a Hezbollah military headquarters in Lebanon in response to attacks on northern Israel.
NOTE - This is an example of Israel shaping the battlefield for an eventual full scale war with Hezbollah, but is able to nibble at it one piece at a time to keep escalation of the current fight from spiraling upwards.
Roads and towns near the Lebanese-Israeli border were closed to civilian traffic on Monday morning until further notice, due to escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.
The affected cities and towns include Kiryat Shmona, Snir, Dan, Dafna, Maayan Baruch, Kfar Yuval, Sha’ar Yishuv, Kfar Giladi, Hagoshrim, Metula, Beit Hillel, Misgav, Margaliot, Manara, Yiftah, Ramot Naftali, Dishon, Malkia, Avivim, Yir’on, Baram, and Dovev. Several roads in the area were also closed to civilian traffic until further notice, according to the Upper Galilee Regional Council.
The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit stated that the IDF struck several targets belonging to Hezbollah on Sunday night and Monday morning, including military structures, terrorist infrastructure, and operational infrastructure.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
A spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry on Monday called a US claim that Iran had attacked a chemical ship near India “baseless”. The Pentagon said on Saturday that a drone launched from Iran struck a chemical tanker in the Indian Ocean.
***
Damascus and Aleppo airports were announced out of service following the recent IAF Israeli airstrikes.
***
IAF conducted an airstrike on/near the Damascus airport that killed Seyed Razi Mousavi, one of the closest IRGC commanders to Qassem Soleimani and the commander of the Iranian forces in Syria. Iran confirmed his death Mousavi was responsible for coordinating the military alliance between Syria and Iran.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi says Israel will pay for killing Moussavi.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces actions through out the West Bank to capture/neutralize Hamas and related terrorists. Skirmishes reported in several locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Egyptian media reports explosions in Dahab on the shore of the Red Sea, could’ve been UAVs from Yemen
***
Rocket attack on coalition’s base in Green Village, northeast Syria
***
In response to multiple attacks against coalition forces in Iraq and Syria, U.S. military forces conducted airstrikes against multiple facilities used by Kataib Hezbollah and affiliated groups in Iraq. Early assessments indicate that these U.S. airstrikes destroyed the targeted facilities and likely killed a number of Kataib Hezbollah militants. There are no indications that any civilian lives were affected. The U.S. military will continue to evaluate the effectiveness of these strikes.
NOTE - Three soldiers were injured by the Iranian-backed militia strikes.
***
Shipping giant Maersk resumes voyages through the Red Sea.
Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd will decide Wednesday how it will proceed with its Red Sea routes after suspending shipments there in response to safety concerns, a spokesperson said Tuesday.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
India is enhancing patrols in the Arabian Sea in response to the recent drone attack on the merchant ship MV Chem Pluto.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete. Action now is almost relatively routine. Action in Central Gaza increasing as the noose around various Hamas and affiliated terror groups strongholds continues to be tightened.
Israel airstrike that took out Iranian General Seyed Razi Mousavi has many military ramifications. First being a more deliberate provocation of Iran forcing them to respond and giving grounds for a larger Israeli retaliation. On another level, Mousavi would be the key coordinator of supplies and support to Hezbollah when Israel finally decides to attack into S Lebanon. The loss of this general will disrupt that coordination significantly, playing into the longer game of battlefield preparations
What Iran’s response to the taking out of Mousavi is yet to be seen. It is highly likely that Iran will strike a peripheral target rather than directly confront Israel at this time. That means that US forces in the region are under the gunsight of Iran. This is particularly true considering that the US presence has turned out to be more of a paper tiger than a true deterrent force. Given the regime’s anemic response to Iranian provoked attacks in the region by its proxy elements, they have a strong case that they can hit the US hard and little will be done in return.
Speaking of battle field preparations - IAF has been nailing even more key Hezbollah command and supply nodes. When war fully breaks out, Hezbollah will be hampered in its coordination of fighting elements and their ability to respond to Israeli ground movements. Israel then can isolate Hezbollah elements and destroy them in detail.
How soon this will all happen is unknown to me, but evidence is growing that once Israel is satisfied that it has dealt the death blow to Hamas, you can be sure Hezbollah is next.
Hamas leadership is shooting itself in the PR foot with such pronouncements that all food relief goes to Hamas and the civilian population gets the crumbs that fall off the table. Already, Hamas has been documented stealing truck loads of supplies and even shooting civilians.
Same for the attitude that Hamas is willing and wanting to have arabs killed by fighting for the ‘cause’. Their recent walk away from the Egyptian peace proposal is not helping their cause either. Brings back to the front the illegalities of taking and holding hostages in the first place and the ‘conditions’ they have for their release.
Iran –
See Israel above on the loss of Gen Mousavi.
Syria -
Rocket attack on coalition’s base in Green Village, northeast Syria
Mexico -
US State dept working hard to try to get Mexico’s support in curtailing the illegal flow into the southern border regions.
Misc of Note –
Meteorologists are closely monitoring a developing stratospheric warming event, forecasted for January 2024, which could signal a weakening or even collapse of the polar vortex. This significant atmospheric shift may herald a much-anticipated change in the weather patterns across the United States and Europe as winter deepens.
The strength and structure of the polar vortex significantly influence mid-latitude weather. A stable and robust polar vortex typically confines colder Arctic air, leading to milder conditions in the United States. Conversely, a weak or disrupted polar vortex allows cold air to spill into mid-latitudes, bringing colder, snowier conditions. Such disruptions are often marked by Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events, where the winds within the vortex weaken, indicating potential changes in weather patterns. As we approach 2024, forecasts predict a major slowdown of the polar vortex combined with a significant warming event.
The implications of a weakened polar vortex are profound, offering the possibility of a colder and snowier January compared to the warmer conditions experienced in December. While specifics are still emerging, the trends indicate a marked shift in weather patterns.
https://watchers.news/2023/12/25/potential-for-disrupted-polar-vortex-in-january-2024/
Note - The temperature of the polar stratosphere just set a 40-year low for the month of December.
OBSERVATION - Weather forecasting is a fickle matter. In this case, historical patterns are merging and the second half of winter could get very interesting. I’m monitoring its impacts further to the west here in the Redoubt. Current snow pack is 50-60% of normal, and we sure could use some more moisture in the mountains.
Black Swans NOTE - This is a cross reference with CW2 as well
Catherine Herridge, senior investigative correspondent for CBS News, is raising concerns about a “black swan event” happening in 2024.
The ominous statement aired Sunday on “Face the Nation” after moderator Margaret Brennan asked members of her panel to share their “big prediction” for the coming year.
“Well, mine’s a little dark. I just feel a lot of concern that 2024 may be the year of a black swan event,” Herridge said.
(t)he U.S. may have “a national security event with high impact that’s very hard to predict,” pointing to ongoing wars and U.S. division as factors creating “fertile ground for our adversaries like North Korea, China and Iran” to take advantage of.”
OBSERVATION - She is not the only political pundit expressing concerns over a Black Flag event in 2024, many others on both sides are ruminating on the same concern.
The key issue is just how will that Black Swan Event be used by the regime in 2024 and that could give a clue as to the potential nature of such event. Most likely candidate is to affect the presidential election in some manner. Potential scenarios - in no particular order - include
1 Declaration of martial law and cancelation of the election
2 Assassination (or attempt) of Trump
3 Something to trigger race riots incorporating the tens of millions of illegals into the mix
4 Crash of the economy
5 War with China or in the Mid East or even Russia in Ukraine.
The ominous coming together of multiple threats in 2024 has caught the attention by some on the left, suggesting that 2024 may well be the most dangerous year of our country’s history.
2023 In Review and 2024 Outlook.
Terrorism -
For those relatively new here, Threat Matrix was originally started after 9/11 to discuss potential terror threats here in the US by islamic radicals. It has lead by many over the years and landed in my lap a few years back. It has morphed over those years to look at and document the threats of today. Many of those threats are at a higher level than Terrorism, - particularly WEF/globalism and Deep State threats,- but Terror is a key and potentially growing component of the movement to create chaos towards leftest ends.
Uncontrolled illegals pouring across the border have definitely brought in terrorists, to link up with existing terror cells or create new ones. There are three categories that I see as major concerns.
1 Chinese terror / unconventional warfare groups
2 Islamic terror
3 Narco terrrorism
4 Domestic terrorism
1 and 3 have been pressing all year, with a sudden surge in single, military aged Chinese men arriving at the border. China is my highest concern given the tensions with Taiwan and the South China Sea affecting the Philippines, S Korea and Japan. It is well established that China has scores of folk here committing espionage to steal business secrets and military secrets, others attacking / threatening expat Chinese residing here and now what one could call strike groups of Chinese that could launch infrastructure attacks - physical or cyber - in support of action against Taiwan. The weakness of the biden regime so far has likely encouraged Chinese plans and efforts to get assets in place and ready for action.
Islamic based terror has quickly raised its head again with the Gaza war. Know Iranian supported terror cells have existed in the US over the past decades. The pro-hamas protests / riots have given these cells a chance to recruit and gauge weaknesses to attack / exploit. I rate these groups far more likely to use violent / murderous attacks on the US than China. More islamics have been pushing across the border this year, increasing the body pool for these terror cells.
Narco-terrorism is sweeping in behind the illegal surge of the past three years. Running a different tact than the others, they are far more a crime style scourge. Already affecting border areas in the US, these terrorists will work to expand their human trafficking and drug territories - an do so in a blood thirsty manner against undermanned US law enforcement.
Remotely related are the gangs like MS-13 that terrorize various parts of the country. Many elements tied into border narco-terror forces.
Turf wars are currently predominant in these narco-terror and related elements along with terrorizing civilians into accepting their presence and eventual control.
Domestic terrorism covers both the left and the right, though historically the left is the more likely source. Following the BLM / Antifa riots of 2020, groups like the New Black Panthers and gained attention and following. On the flip side of the coin, far right groups have grown in numbers in response to anti-white movements.
The deep state has taken great care and effort to focus solely on white domestic terrorists - with a definition that covers nearly half the country. While liberal/marxist terrorists will bury themselves within other marches and protests , the so called ‘white’ terrorists IMHO will not strike until forced by govt oppression and aggressive actions, such as crackdown, arrest sweeps and obvious vote fraud in the presidential election .
There is one final, amorphous threat posed by the broader group of illegals that have poured into the country. Some of the more ethnic groups may go beyond crime to initiation terror like operations in order to force their wishes and demands on society. In Europe where the problem has been going on longer and more intensely, this hasn’t bloomed into anything large scale - yet.
Outlook is one of grave concern for 2024. Terrorism can easily be combined with multiple other categories like CW2 for civil disturbance and conflict. More ‘classical’ terror - represented by islamic groups and state-sponsored elements increases as global instability increases with the Gaza war and Taiwan. There is such a potential smorgasbord that almost anything can happen and with the global situation, those things are more likely to occur than any other time in recent history.
Nice to know our 'front line protecters' in the FBI and CIA are running after Catholics and parents attending commie controlled school board meetings.
The US Threat Matrix is this:
The Biden Regime and all his lickspittle agencies,
All of the ‘economic’ and asylum invaders entering this country by the millions,
The US Court System, and
Main Stream Media.
Don’t forget the Medical/Government organizations.
Globalism / Great Reset –
See “Black Swan” below.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
‘Doctors Against Genocide’ initially announced that on December 28, they were planning on protesting inside(!) the US Holocaust Museum. Push back was immediate and hard, with this group announcing later that is was scraping the event, apologizes after uproar calling it a ‘misunderstanding’
OBSERVATION - You can bet that islamists will still show up there on that date and time anyway. These ‘doctors’ have succeeded in placing the idea into the minds of these anarcho-islamists.
***
Missouri and Oklahoma lawmakers have pre-filed bills for the 2024 legislative session that would eliminate state capital gains taxes on the sale or exchange of gold and silver, plus other measures. This is part of a trend to treat gold and silver as money free of any taxes instead of as commodities that are liable for taxes.
OBSERVATION - Posting here under CW2 rather than Economy because the establishment of parallel govt and in this case, currency issues, is a key marker of a growing split in the country. Establishment of gold/silver as a means of currency would be one work around to totally digital currency - maintaining a physical object for exchanges of goods and services.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Maintain alert status through the rest of the holiday season. Tracking warnings of rioting planned for NYC on New Years Eve.
Economy-
The US could fall into a severe downturn in early 2024 as a handful of recession signals flash throughout the economy, according to Briley Wealth’s chief investment strategist Paul Dietrich.
“Investors shouldn’t count on the central bank lowering borrowing costs unless the US economy falls into a severe recession — which may happen early next year,” Dietrich said. “The Fed typically starts cutting rates when there is a sharply slowing economy and rising unemployment — meaning a recession.”
Signs of a recession are starting to build, Dietrich notes. The stock market’s 20% rally this year is one such warning, he said, as the S&P 500 has typically posted outsized gains in the months leading up to a downturn. That was the case prior to the 2001, 2008, and 2020 recessions, when stocks rallied sharply before the economy began contracting.
There are other “stock market disconnects” that are making the case the economy will soon roll over into a downturn, he added. Though the S&P 500 is up overall for the year, the S&P 500 equal-weighed index, which is more representative of the average stock, has fallen into “correction territory,” Dietrich said.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/severe-recession-may-coming-2024-002714826.html
OBSERVATION - Continuing conflicting economic forecasts for 2024. Our economy has still lingering disfunction carried over from the wuhan shutdowns and shockwaves from that event. To try to predict future activity based on a “Before Years” model is scary for both the boomer and busters.
***
California Pizza Huts are laying off delivery drivers in order to brace for the nearly thirty percent hike in the minimum wage for fast-food workers set to kick in next April Fool’s Day.
Thanks to a new law signed by Democrat California Governor Gavin Newsom, the minimum wage for fast-food workers is set to jump from $15.50 to $20.00 an hour on April 1, 2024, Fox News reports
In anticipation of the higher costs, Pizza Hut franchises are laying off employees – including more than twelve hundred delivery drivers, some eliminating delivery entirely.
OBSERVATION - Actions have consequences and an April Fools Day link is appropriate. Not stated is how the loss of delivery drivers will impact the bottom line. I suspect that the delivery will be shifted to Door Dash and others. The franchise avoiding some of the costs, but the prices will rise in other ways for consumers paying delivery fees. Other fast-food chains, like McDonald’s and Chipotle, say they’ll simply pass the added cost on to consumers, in the form of higher prices.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
There are reports that the tropical disease leishmaniasis has been found in human children here illegally in Texas. The disease is spread by a sand fly and most commonly found in Iraq, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen.
The disease is fatal if not treated and can cause black fever and boils on the skin. For now it’s only been found in a few children, but doctors are watching to see if it spreads.
OBSERVATION - Needless to say, this disease is linked to illegals on the southern border. Besides the sand fly, it can be spread by contaminated needles (needle sharing) or blood transfusions. Congenital transmission (spread from a pregnant woman to her baby) has been reported. What is an even greater concern is that these millions who’ve poured into the country the past three years have had virtually NO screening for diseases that could spread to the population in general.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Democrat pollsters are seeing dissatisfaction with the biden regime over the lukewarm support of Israel in Gaza. They want a hostile anti-israel policy and they may drop of the vote this fall as a protest if biden remains on the ballot.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden said there “was no question” that former President Trump “lead an insurrection” on January 6th, adding that it was “self-evident,” but it is up to the courts to decide if Trump is disqualified from holding office
OBSERVATION - biden reflects the current desperation to disparage Trump’s candidacy based on now highly questionable events on J6.
Illegal Immigration –
CBP sources confirm migrant encounters have surpassed 250k for the month of December—On pace to break the previous record set in September of 269,735. The majority, 66k+ have entered through Arizona’s Tucson sector (Lukeville) this month—While 60k+ entered through Texas in the Del Rio sector (Eagle Pass).
***
Yesterday I noted that an estimated 8,000 asylum seekers are en route, marking the largest migrant caravan approaching the US since June 2022. These numbers have now been revised upwards to about 15,000.
China –
China has selected the commander of its submarine forces to be the overall chief of the PLA navy. Could note a change in goals and construction of the navy.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Logistics –
In the past few months, Ukraine has eliminated about 20% of the Black Sea Fleet.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 32 of 46 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. Targeted regions primarily the Odesa-Kherson area, the Dnipro region and west-central Ukraine.
Russia continues to make the focus of its ground offensive operations the Adviivka region.
In a follow up to the airstrike, Svoboda Radio reports that another ship was sunk during the missile strike, a former training vessel UTS-150.
The amphibious assault ship was reportedly loaded with Shahed drones and the secondary explosion so massive that fragments of the ship were scattered throughout the town, pretty much confirming the contents.
The drone attack overnight may be in part a retaliation for the destruction of the Novocherkassk.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate operations.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- On-going search and destroy operations across Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas Movement: We have repeatedly emphasized the motives and reasons for Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, foremost among which are the dangers threatening Al-Aqsa Mosque.
***
Israel announced Tuesday that it will no longer automatically approve visa requests from United Nations (UN) officials, due to the UN’s silence on Hamas terrorism and its apparent collaboration with Hamas within Gaza.Visas for UN officials will henceforth be considered on a case-by-case basis, Israel said.
OBSERVATION - The war has uncovered considerable evidence of UN compliance and support of Hamas’ war planning, operations and hostage holding. UN of course squeals loudly to the contrary until UN employees were found holding hostages, knowingly allowing military facilities to be constructed next to and within UN schools and hospitals, etc.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF says it carried out strikes from the air, ground, and sea against some 200 Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip over the past day, as fighting continues.
In Gaza City’s Shejaiya, where Hamas’s battalion is believed to be largely defeated, reservists of the Yiftah Brigade identified Hamas operatives running between buildings, from which gunfire was previously directed at troops, the IDF says.
The reservists then called in an airstrike against the Hamas operatives, which the IDF says led to secondary blasts, indicating the area was booby-trapped.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Border fight continues with little change as Hezbollah continues to fire mortars and ATGMs along the Lebanon border, with IDF artillery and air strikes in response.
12 missiles were launched from southern Lebanon towards Israeli artillery positions in the Kafr Shuba hills
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
For contrast, Turkey and Syria have continued to target civilians in the Idlib and Aleppo regions over the past month - note - civilians.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces actions through out the West Bank to capture/neutralize Hamas and related terrorists. Skirmishes reported in several locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. assets, to include the USS LABOON (DDG 58) and F/A-18 Super Hornets from the Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, shot down twelve one-way attack drones, three anti-ship ballistic missiles, and two land attack cruise missiles in the Southern Red Sea that were fired by the Houthis over a 10 hour period which began at approximately 6:30 a.m. (Sanaa time) on December 26
***
India’s Defense Minister Raksha Mantri Shri Rajnath Singh promised retribution for these attacks during the commissioning ceremony of INS Imphal (D68), the Indian Navy’s third Visakhapatnam-class destroyer.
“Those who have carried out these attacks, we will find them from the bottom of the sea, and strict action will be taken against them,” said Shri Rajnath Singh.
The defense minister emphasized India’s role as the “Net Security Provider in the entire Indian Ocean Region” and commitment to keeping the sea lanes open for greater regional trade in collaboration with international partners.
Shri Rajnath Singh also attributed these attacks to India’s “growing economic and strategic power,” which has “filled some forces with jealousy and hatred.”
OBSERVATION - India has no love towards moslems and Iran may well watch out for retribution.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Egyptian President receives the Jordanian King to discuss developments in the war in Gaza
An Iranian Revolutionary Guard spokesman says that Israel is trying to expand the Gaza war into an American-Iranian conflict
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete.
Houthih’s continue to target shipping with US knocking down anti-ship systems. Increasing condemnation of this policy by many nations - you have to target Houthi weapons systems, bases, logistics to set back the ongoing attacks.
This war may have triggered Iran to speed up enrichment of Uranium to 60% range and they may well be covertly going to the redline 90% value. With the loss of their Hamas weapon and the impending threat towards Hezbollah, Iran may be trying to accelerate their nuclear program to create a bomb to hold off the expected Israeli fight being shifted into S Lebanon. They do so at risk of Israeli first strike on Iranian targets.
Iran –
Iran recently tripled its enrichment of uranium to 60%, reversing a slowdown earlier this year, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported Tuesday.
Tehran has “increased its production of highly enriched uranium, reversing a previous output reduction from mid-2023,” said the U.N. watchdog, summarizing a confidential report sent to member states and obtained by Reuters.
Iran is enriching uranium up to 60% at the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) in Natanz and at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), which is located deep in a mountain, according to the report.
Since mid-June, those plants had been enriching uranium to up to 60% at a rate of about 3 kilograms a month, the IAEA said.
“The agency confirms that, since the end of November 2023, the rate at which Iran has been producing uranium enriched up to 60% U-235 at these two facilities combined has increased to approximately 9 kg per month,” according to the IAEA report.
Iran already has enough high-enriched uranium, if enriched further to 90%, to make three nuclear bombs, Reuters reported, citing the International Atomic Energy Agency’s theoretical definition.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/iran-nuclear-weapons/2023/12/26/id/1147265/
OBSERVATION - Iran is taking advantage of the global chaos and weak US deterrence to accelerate its program. They do so with great risk as Israel is more than willing to strike Iran for crossing the ‘red line’ of 90%. So far, there is no evidence that Iran has constructed a functioning nuclear device, let alone one capable of being made into a warhead and fired at Israel (or other suitable target). Suspicion continues of its time working with N Korea during the development of their bomb - where they could have obtained the technological knowledge to construct a bomb. Even more recently, its alliance with Russia and ‘technical’ advice they are allegedly to be receiving. Is putin willing to let a loose cannon terrorist country release the nuclear genie?
Black Swans -
I noted what appears to be risings of concerns about a 2024 Black Swan event. Let me clarify the concept of such an event. One definition of a Black Swan event is one catastrophic and global magnitude that is opens up new ways of functioning. It replaces the old with new methods, rules and technologies. Examples of black swan events include the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and Great depression, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, 9/11 terrorist attacks, the global financial crisis of 2008, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
All the components are in place in a number of sectors and the globalists are positioning themselves to pounce. Take stock of your preparations and plans accordingly.
“Iran already has enough high-enriched uranium, if enriched further to 90%, to make three nuclear bombs, Reuters reported, citing the International Atomic Energy Agency’s theoretical definition.”
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/iran-nuclear-weapons/2023/12/26/id/1147265/
Which comes first? Electing a sane President like Trump or Biden causing World War III?
Globalism / Great Reset –
WHO’s Tedros: “Our food systems are harming the health of people and planet. Food systems contribute to over 30% of greenhouse gas emissions, and account for almost one third of the global burden of disease. Transforming food systems is therefore essential”
Via United Nations:
Food is now firmly on the menu as a vital area of action to achieve global climate goals and countries have led the way- challenging themselves to do more, faster. The key COP28 outcomes represent a collective commitment to integrated action for food systems and climate, and provide powerful advocacy tools to drive forward action which delivers on these commitments at all levels. Though this is a huge step forward- we are still only at the start of the journey. While food systems action made monumental leaps within COP28 proceedings, the integration of nutrition considerations within this remains a vital area for joint advocacy. The phrase echoing through nutrition discussions was “a glass half full” – with the groundwork laid for integrated action, but much more work to do to integrate nutrition considerations into country NDCs and NAPs, and deliver on the vision of food systems for people, planet and prosperity.
Focus now turns to transforming this momentum into measurable results, with the 2024 COP29 in Azerbaijan and 2025 COP30 in Brazil serving as critical progress checkpoints. In line with their unique mandates, UN-Nutrition Members and partners stand ready to support countries in this mission, including championing healthy diets from sustainable food systems as a solution to achieve multiple Sustainable Development Goals and global climate targets. An exciting platform for this will be the scale up of the I-CAN initiative which is set to continue inspiring integrated action for climate and nutrition and monitoring change across food, health, social protection and water systems, as well as commencing country case studies for accelerated progress in 2024. Stay tuned!
https://www.unnutrition.org/news/people-planet-and-prosperity-nutrition-cop28
OBSERVATION - The effort is going forward without any input from the affected countries and people. Remember, I’ve said it before - control the food, control the people.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Anti-Israel protesters blocked the road leading to JFK airport in New York City, and LAX in LA, causing people to miss their flights home after Christmas. A similar action was done by Chicago O’Hare International airport.
Video footage of the highway blockade at JFK appears to show an interesting development in the far left’s use of the blockade tactic. They are using vehicles at the head of the blockade in addition to protestors. The new method is likely meant to prevent one of the people stuck behind the blockade from driving through or simply physically removing the protestors. (FO)
Protests quickly turned violent as police moved in to remove the protestors. In NY, 26 were arrested.
In LA, when the Los Angeles Police Department got involved around 9:30 a.m. after the protestors attempted to block the roadway with cement blocks and other objects. As officers moved in, the protesters took off running in different directions, while others were taken into custody.
OBSERVATION - While airport and road blockages may be an effective tactic at this time of year due to Christmas travel, one needs to look at how this may morph into next year. I have no insight only that the pro-hamas elements quickly embraced the blm/Antifa model for their purposes. Unlike 2020, it seems police are becoming more aggressive in removing protestors. When the holidays are past will that continue?
***
On Jan 13th pro Hamas March on Washington is being announced and organized.
OBSERVATION - After New Years, the pro-hamas movement will need something more to hang its hat on. Currently the domestic hate is vented towards democrats given the support expressed for Israel by biden. Conditions may be ripe for the protests to continue in that bent - adding additional woes to biden’s attempt at reelection.
Second item may be the morphing into a pseudo-civil rights movement where islamic radicals seek to impose shariah concepts on the US culture and bully their way into greater political power thru a more energized voting block.
***
Barry County, Mich. Sheriff Dar Leaf is offering a “militia course” for patriots in his county to use their 2nd Amendment rights to defend the homeland.
According to a Facebook post, Leaf is offering the course to “learn a militiaman’s duty.” He will provide a “certificate upon course completion,” and welcomes “potential jurors, homeschoolers, ladies & gentlemen.”
Leaf is one of the nation’s leading constitutional sheriffs. He is outspoken about the county sheriff’s duty to interpose their authority to reject unconstitutional and immoral laws at the federal and state levels.
In order to join the militia, Holton Township residents need to be the age of 18 or older, pass a federal firearms background check, and issue a letter or state on social media that they want to join the militia. The resolution was signed by the Holton Township clerk Malinda Pago, who also serves as the Co-Chair of the Michigan Republican Party
OBSERVATION - This is an indicator phase of the movement towards a potential hot civil war scenario. Development of govt and military forces to counter potential state/fed assaults on freedom is that marker. This militia could also serve to maintain order should violence and lawlessness spread from more urban areas in a sub-critical scenario.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Maintain alert status through the rest of the holiday season. Tracking warnings of rioting planned for NYC on New Years Eve.
Economy-
According to a survey released Wednesday by Rasmussen Reports, 41% of Americans say their overall financial situation is worse than it was six months ago.
The survey of 1,010 adults, conducted on Dec. 6-7 and 10, found that just a quarter of Americans expect their situation to improve in the months ahead; 38% say their financial situation has stayed about the same.
The margin of sampling error is plus/minus 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Other recent polls on finances had similar findings.
A Harris Poll conducted in mid-November found that 53% of Americans said their financial situation worsened in 2023, with 46% saying they expect to have credit debt heading into 2024.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/finances-situation-poll/2023/12/27/id/1147391/
OBSERVATION - The biden attempt to paint the economy as golden seem to be failing to exit the city limits of DC. Real people, real bank accounts and bills trump regime economists every time.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Mile post note - the Colorado Supreme court decision being the only outlier, Michigan joins the ranks of states tossing the multiple suits trying to get Trump off the ballot under the 14th Amendment.
***
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger refuses to testify under oath about Secretary of State’s Dominion voting machines. Raffensperger - a rabid anti-Trumper, was key in having an in-depth investigation into alleged voting inconsistencies and violations stopped in 2020. Now it appears he lied in his certification the vote as well as saying that post election reviews were conducted. As this story unfolds, the narrative of a biden election win in Georgia is quickly becoming unwound.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden continues to vacation - now at about 39% of time in office spent on vacation.
Illegal Immigration –
New York City Mayor Eric Adams said he would issue an “executive order” requiring buses carrying migrants from Texas to New York to announce their arrival 32 hours in advance and only unload migrants between 0800 and 1200 on weekdays. Chicago has started impounding busses and fining operators.
OBSERVATION - Some of this could lead to lawsuits against the cities. But now TX has altered its tactic by chartering passenger planes to ship the illegals to these cities. And bus companies dropping off their loads in surrounding suburbs instead of the main cities.
***
The US and Mexico have vowed to crack down on migrant smugglers as a growing migration crisis causes chaos on their shared border.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador discussed how to stop the flow of people in talks held in Mexico City.
The high-level meeting came as pressure grows on the White House to stem the influx of migrants to the US.
US officials said last week that up to 10,000 people were crossing every day.
AMLO, hinted to the U.S. delegation that he will reduce migration to the United States if Biden gives more aid and support to Latin American dictators.
Instead of blocking migration, “it is more efficient and more humane to invest in the development of the people,” AMLO said before the Wednesday meeting.
“The migration issue is going to intensify” in 2024, he added.
Basically, the meeting was essentially all talk. That means no new commitments or agreements were settled on. The meeting in Mexico City was pure optics. AMLO gave no indication that he will assist in keeping more migrants on the southern side of the border in Mexico.
OBSERVATION - The recent diplomatic scramble to try to get support from Mexico to reduce the flow of illegals into the country must be hitting the red zone for democrat election planners. The impacts - especially in the dark blue metro areas - is causing his poll numbers to hemorrhage.
China –
Taiwan is just over two weeks away from key elections and China is increasing its focus on trying to influence the results by any means necessary. On Wednesday China warned of further trade sanctions on Taiwan in the event the ruling party “stubbornly” commits to supporting independence.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Tuesday issued some his strongest words on the issue thus far, vowing to use “any means” to prevent anyone from “making Taiwan secede from China.”
Current Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te, who serves under President Tsai Ing-wen and is a member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), holds a narrow lead in the polls. His election would ire Beijing; he is an advocate for a more independent Taiwan and strongly opposed to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). A Lai victory would likely prompt aggressive moves from Beijing, including naval maneuvers and airspace intrusions.
OBSERVATION - Most probably move by China, beyond increased air and sea intrusions into Taiwan restricted space would be the blockade option. Though China has been working fast and has been somewhat creative in trying to get its navy ready to field an amphibious force, a full-on attack would be on the scale the the Normandy Invasion. Such an operation would be near impossible to hide with todays intelligence surveillance platforms and the Taiwan Strait would be a shooting gallery for all the transports. The risk to China would be very , very high, so the blockade action far more likely, though dangerous in itself as well. Invasion remains highly unlikely, especially when China is struggling with other crises.
***
The Chinese spaceplane, named Shenlong (meaning Divine Dragon), has placed the objects in Earth orbit since it was launched from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on December 14. The existence of these objects has been confirmed by amateur spacecraft trackers.
OBSERVATION - A lot of speculation on these objects. Some think that they may be small anti- satellite systems.
***
Chinese state media recently revealed that a number of bank executives have committed suicide or died suddenly.
According to the authorities of Yingshan County, Hubei Province, Wang Shengyong, the president of the Yangtze River Village Bank in the county, died of carbon monoxide poisoning on Dec. 5 at the age of 54 years old. It was reported that Wang committed suicide after using his position to defraud depositors of 40 million yuan (about $5.6 million) under the guise of capital raising.
According to official media reports, Du Haitao, deputy general manager of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) Credit Suisse Asset, died of a heart attack while running on Dec. 13 at the age of 49. Born in 1974, Du was deputy general manager of ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management Co., LTD. and chairman of ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management (International) Co., LTD.
On Dec. 10, Gong Danzhi, the president of Huaxia Bank’s Tianjin branch, fell to his death. The local police station confirmed the news.
OBSERVATION - China’s economic woes continue and it is causing any rebound to falter. Clusters of banking execs who die ‘suddenly’ is a key indicator that Xi is trying to get the graft out of the banking.
North/South Korea –
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called for bolstered war readiness to repel what he said were unprecedented United States-led confrontational moves, state media reported Thursday, as rival South Korea vowed a stern retaliation against any provocations by the North.
Kim’s comments during the key political meeting tasked with setting state objectives for 2024 indicated North Korea will likely continue weapons tests to modernize its nuclear arsenal. Observers say Kim likely hopes to eventually use his boosted arsenal as leverage in potential diplomacy with Washington, possibly after the 2024 U.S. presidential election in November.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/north-korea-kim-jong-un-war/2023/12/28/id/1147442/
OBSERVATION - Nature abhors a vacuum, so in the absence of US leadership, Kim is seizing the opportunity to move forward with a more aggressive military preparations. A lot can happen in the time before the election. However, I don’t see NK in the position to launch an attack on the south at this time.
Japan –
A number of news articles popping up on the thoughts that Japan may be pushing soon for its own nuclear weapons.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Logistics –
Russia appears to be building yet another naval base for what remains of their Black Sea Fleet. The new base is being built in the Black Sea port of Ochamchire. This port is in Abkhazia, a Russian controlled area that used to be part of the pro-NATO Caucasus nation of Georgia. All this is happening in the distant northeast portion of the Black Sea, where the Russian warships are safer from attack by Ukrainian forces.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 7 of 8 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight
Tokmak Axis -.
Reports that Russia regained some terrain around Robotyne as Ukraine forces pulled back to more defensible positions for the winter.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hezbollah launched the heaviest missile attacks since Oct 7th.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a US-designated terrorist organization, said on Wednesday that Hamas’ Oct. 7 massacre in southern Israel was revenge for the 2020 assassination of IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani in a US drone strike — a claim swiftly denied by Hamas. “Hamas denies the validity of the remarks given by the spokesperson of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Brigadier General Ramadan Sharif, regarding the operation of the Flood of Al-Aqsa and its motives,” the group said.
NOTE - Earlier Iran denied all accountability for the attack. Internal fighting among terrorists.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli army spokesman: We added a brigade in the areas of the northern Gaza Strip.
***
Israeli soldiers destroyed a network of tunnels underneath and around a hospital and an adjacent girls school in Gaza City, the Israel Defense Forces said on Wednesday night.
The three shafts, dozens of meters deep, were connected by an underground network passing under Rantisi Hospital and leading to the heart of Gaza City, the IDF said. The tunnels also ran under and around the nearby Ramaz Fahrah School. A special elevator installed in the girls school descended 20 meters down to the shaft.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah on Wednesday unleashed multiple rounds of rocket attacks and multiple drone strikes reaching approximately three dozen total attacks on Israel, reportedly the most the group has launched in one day since October 7.
Israel’s military will act to remove Hezbollah from the border with Lebanon if its attacks continue, an Israeli minister has warned.
Benny Gantz said the military would intervene if militants do not stop firing on northern Israel.
Time for a diplomatic solution was running out, he added.
Meanwhile, the head of the Israel Defense Forces said troops were in “very high readiness” for more fighting in the north.
———WEST BANK——————————-
A massive operation by the Israel Defense Force is taking place throughout the West Bank overnight, as hundreds of armored vehicles and thousands of troops have stormed several cities across the region including Jenin, Nablus, Hebron, Ramallah, and Jericho in what appears to be an attempt to mass arrest of known Hamas and PIJ Terrorists. Heavy fighting has been reported in many of these cities where the operation is taking place.
The United Nations asks Israel to stop “lawless killings” in the West Bank
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A kamikaze drone hit an open area in the southern Golan Heights on Wednesday night, with the Iran-backed militias in Iraq claiming responsibility for the attack. … Iraq said that they launched the drone toward a site near the town of Eliad in the Golan Heights “in support of Gaza.”
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Indian Navy has deployed 4 Kolkata & Visakhapatnam destroyers to the waters near Iran to prevent additional attacks on merchant vessels carrying crude oil and other goods to India
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete.
Fighting continues to escalate on the northern border with Hezbollah becoming more aggressive in its rocket campaign. Israel has planned for years to deal with Hezbollah and the relatively slow growth in the confrontation may well be working to its advantage. Intelligence on command, control, logistics, etc. are being revealed daily. IAF has also been targeting key Hezbollah nodes, acts that will hurt their ability to respond in a unified manner, allowing Israel to isolate and defeat Hezbollah forces in detail.
Rhetoric from Israeli officials/generals suggest that the assault into Lebanon may be sooner than some (including myself) are anticipating. I would expect that Israel would hold off until all of Gaza is largely under control and forces/support shifted for the attack to the north. Israel’s actions are naturally being held closely.
Mexico -
See Illegal Immigration above
Globalism / Great Reset –
The new Spanish left-wing government has decided to follow Germany down into the abyss by dismantling all its nuclear power plants.
According to the new coalition government, all 7 nuclear reactors are to be dismantled and replaced by renewable energy.
OBSERVATION - You don’t get much more carbon neutral than the use of nuclear generated electricity.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Overnight, anti-Israel protesters blocked all exits of the World Trade Center in New York City. They later launched smoke grenades outside Tweed Courthouse.
OBSERVATION - There has been an increase in violence the these kinds of protests since Christmas. Will this trend continue once they fully lose the theater of the holidays? Very possibly, the global protest set for next month may set that standard.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Maintain alert status through the rest of the holiday season. Tracking warnings of rioting planned for NYC on New Years Eve.
Economy-
Reportedly 61% of Americans are living pay check to pay check. Credit card debt over 1 Trillion dollars.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USSF-52 mission was launched yesterday with seventh mission of the Space Force’s X-37B spaceplane, using a SpaceX Falcon Heavy for the first time. Launch and orbital insertion were successful.
***
Deployed U.S. Army soldiers will no longer be able to store their belongings free of charge while they are away from home, the Army Sustainment Command announced Wednesday.
A spokesman for the command, which is the primary provider of logistics support to Army units, told Military.com that it was discontinuing the use of funds to store soldiers’ vehicles and other goods while they are away for prolonged periods of time.
It was not specified whether the announcement applies to all deployment types or just to soldiers on temporary duty.
The storage policy ended in October, but the order was not “widely distributed” to soldiers or the press, the outlet reported.
“We understand the burden this could potentially place on soldiers, and HQDA G-1 [The Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Personnel, Department of the Army] is drafting policy that would enable such storage,” service spokesman Sgt. Pablo Saez said.
That new “policy” was only mentioned after Military.com first reached out to the Army about the issue in early December, the outlet noted.
It is unclear when or in what manner that future policy will take form.
An internal memo from Col. Heather Carlisle, director for support operations at the Army Sustainment Command, said that the Army is not required to provide storage for its soldiers:
HQDA G1, the proponent for [storage] entitlements, recently determined that the Army would no longer support [storage] entitlements because there is no Army policy explicitly authorizing storage in support of soldiers deployed for contingency operations.
OBSERVATION - Screwing the US military once again, and they wander around the five walls of the pentagon wondering why they can’t meet recruitment/retention goals.
***
Amphibious warships USS Bataan (LHD-5) and USS Carter Hall (LSD-50) transited the Suez Canal on Thursday after almost five months of operating in the Middle East, U.S. 6th Fleet announced.
The two ships, “will join the San Antonio-class amphibious transport dock ship USS Mesa Verde (LPD-19). With the embarked 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU), these ships will re-aggregate as the Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) in the Eastern Mediterranean,” reads the statement from U.S. 6th Fleet.
OBSERVATION - This weakens the US presence in the Arabian Sea region where forces may be needed either in the Red Sea (Houthi threat) or the Persian Gulf. From what has been released there is no evidence of another unit being deployed there to replace them.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
The medical community is raising the alert concerning significant communicable diseases being brought across the border by the flood of unscreened illegals. Among many include polio and tuberculosis.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Maine’s Democrat Secretary of State Shenna Bellows on Thursday removed former President Donald Trump from the state’s presidential primary ballot under the Constitution’s insurrection clause, becoming the first election official to take action unilaterally in a decision that has potential Electoral College consequences. Today, impeachment proceedings have been filed against the Maine SoS - an unelected and highly partisan democrat.
This following the CO SoS restoring Trump to the ballot.
The court challenge to the CO Supreme Court is still enroute to the USSC because the CO court decision sets a precedent that cannot be allowed to stand. The CO SoS may be trying to blunt a USSC decision by essentially saying that we ‘fixed’ the constitutional problem. My question is how can the SoS override the state supreme court?
Another potential side issue is that the democrats are trying to force the USSC to rule that Trump is not under the 14th Amendment restrictions - an attempt to delegitimize the court.
Cross reference to CW2.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden still sunning himself in the Caribbean while the world goes to hell.
Illegal Immigration –
The DOJ is threatening to sue Texas if it moves forward with its strict new border security law, which is set to take effect in March and would allow TX authorities to arrest & deport anyone who crosses into TX illegally. TX has been using as many loopholes it can find lately to try to put a stop to the flood coming across the border. Its border fence and barbwire barriers currently have protection by US court order from BP creating openings, IIRC the water barrier can still be in place pending appeal. Now arrests of illegal trespassing with deportation become the next tool. The DoJ’s response makes it clear, the biden regimen is not interested AT ALL in shutting down the border.
China –
“U.S. intelligence officials have determined that the Chinese spy balloon that flew across the U.S. this year used an American internet service provider to communicate, according to two current and one former U.S. official familiar with the assessment.”
“The balloon connected to a U.S.-based company, according to the assessment, to send and receive communications from China, primarily related to its navigation. Officials familiar with assessment said it found that the connection allowed the balloon to send burst transmissions, or high-bandwidth collections of data over short periods of time.”
OBSERVATION - This shouldn’t surprise anyone by now. This totally bungled operation by the US govt, allowing the balloon to pass over sensitive military facilities was just the tip of the iceberg. Remember, at this stage of the game one must consider all from mainland China to be involved in spying in one way or another. A simple antenna set connected to the internet is all that is needed for the encrypted data to be moved to China.
Phillipines –
Recent polls indicate that the majority of the Philippine people favor restoring military treaties with the US, in the face of a rising threat posed by China.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
The UN’s humanitarian envoy for Ukraine has condemned Russia’s “heinous wave of attacks on populated areas” this morning.
In a statement, Denise Brown says the attacks have “left a path of destruction, death and human suffering” and are “another unacceptable example of the horrifying reality” Ukrainian people face.
Noting the Russia has damaged homes, schools, hospitals, a shopping centre, a metro station and energy infrastructure this morning, she adds the strikes have killed and injured civilians in “almost every region of the country”.
Quote Message: Right now, families and emergency services are trying to pull people out of the debris left by the destruction. For the Ukrainian people, this is another unacceptable example of the horrifying reality they are faced with, and which made 2023 another year of enormous suffering.”
Right now, families and emergency services are trying to pull people out of the debris left by the destruction. For the Ukrainian people, this is another unacceptable example of the horrifying reality they are faced with, and which made 2023 another year of enormous suffering.”
RUMINT-
Following the Ukrainian airstrike that took out a Rocha class amph assault ship, it is being reported in some circles that ADA commanders that had responsibility over the defense of that portion of Crimea have been ordered to the combat front as punishment for their failure to intercept the Ukrainian missiles.
Economic Impact –
G7 are discussing seizure of $300 billion in Russian Central Bank assets by February 24, the 2nd anniversary of Russia’s assault on Ukraine
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action on the ground.
Overnight, Russian unleashed what some consider to be the largest drone/missile strike barrage on Ukraine since the start of the war. “We haven’t seen so many targets on our monitors for a long time,” says Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ihnat. Russia used practically all the weapons in its arsenal apart from Kalibr cruise missiles, he said.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 27 of 36 Shahed drones, and 87 of 90 Kh-101 missiles. Also Russia used 5 Kh47-m2 missiles, 4 anti-radiation Kh-31P missiles, 1 Kh-59, at least 14 ballistic missiles(S-300/S-400 or Iskander), 8 Kh-22 missiles.
Russia utilized ground launches as well as MiG-31Ks, 9 TU-95ms and 9 TU-22M3 in the attacks. Notably missing was any launches from vessels of the Black Sea fleet - the primary source in the past of Kalibr cruise missiles. Some analysts believe that the Russian ports these vessels relocated to do not have adequate loading facilities for missiles at this time.
Ukrainan cities that were targeted include
Dnipro
Kharkiv
Konotop
Kyiv
Odesa
Lviv
Odesa
Zhaporizhzhia
Attacks hit civilian targets - hospitals, shopping mall, train station etc killing at least 18 civilians and rising. Other damage/fires were caused by falling debris from intercepted missiles/drones.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
Ive noted in the past that it appears Russia was holding back most of its missiles for later large scale attacks on the Ukraine power grid as last year. This attack pretty well vindicated that view. However, though some military facilities were targeted, most fell on demonstrably civilian facilities. Also, a lot of missiles were wasted in this attack with little strategic success indicated. While the numbers of drones/missiles was huge, the Ukrainian ADA capabilities have been substantially increased since last winter.
Some suspect that Russia launched this in retaliation for the missile strike that took out a Rocha class amph assault ship. Could be, but the Russian reaction then was not focused.
Poland –
Poland detected an “unknown” object near border with Ukraine during Russia’s massive attacks on Ukraine.
Local residents saw “something flying very fast westward with noise and whistling.” There was no preliminary explosion, Polish media reported.
OBSERVATION - Sounds like one of Russia’s cruise missiles flew into Poland. This kind of ‘spillage’ Poland has warned Russia not to allow. Polish response pending official recognition of just what flew into the country.
Europe / NATO General –
While the socialists in Spain are planning to shutdown all its nuke power plants, (See Globalism above) citizens continue to pour into the streets of Madrid and others protesting the govt.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- IDF begins to expand operations in S Gaza strip area, near the Egyptian border.
- Fighting between Hezbollah and IDF continues to escalate
——— GENERAL ——————————-
A 70-year-old American-Israeli teacher who was shot by Hamas terrorists when out for a walk with her husband at their kibbutz on the morning of Oct. 7 has been declared dead, her community announced Thursday.
Judi Weinstein Haggai’s body is being held by Hamas in Gaza, along with that of her husband, Gad Haggai, who was fatally wounded in the attack.
Al-Qassam spokesman: We will not accept any exchange deals for detainees before ending the war on Gaza.
Israeli intelligence estimate - Qhamas chief Sinwar is reportedly hiding in a bunker in Khan Younis with his family, surrounded by IDF hostages.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli Army: Our forces begin a military operation in the “Khirbet Khuza’a” area, south of the Gaza Strip, for the first time since the beginning of the war.
Israeli army spokesman: Israeli forces are operating inside tunnels in Khan Younis; Defense Minister Gallant: 98th Division fighting in spaces that nobody in the world ever fought in, forces reach command centers, ammunition depots, arms production sites. IDF finding that the tunnel network there was more substantial than at first understood.
The IDF says it has recovered more than 65 million digital files and half a million physical documents from the Gaza Strip, which have aided ground forces in battling Hamas and locating the terror group’s infrastructure.
Mass surrenders of Hamas and affiliated terrorists continue throughout Gaza. Highlighted by human rights organizations complaining that they are initially stopped to their underwear before transportation to incarceration.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF spokesman - Israel delivered powerful blows that are very painful to Hezbollah, targeting strategically significant sites near Litani River, as reported by N12News. The complete extent of military operations in Lebanon remains under gag order, reflecting the intensity of the actions taken.
IDF struck southern Lebanon after approximately 50 rockets were fired into Kiryat Shmona throughout the day.
Some analysts are reporting that IDF has adopted a new offensive approach against Hezbollah in Lebanon, mobilizing fighter jets, tanks, artillery, and mortar fire simultaneously for heightened strike effectiveness.
RUMINT - Forces near the Lebanon border are on high alert for potential extreme scenarios, including a Hezbollah raid into Israel.
***
A member of Israel’s war cabinet warned on Wednesday that the diplomatic “hourglass” was running out for Lebanon as the nation has failed to stop Hezbollah from firing rockets across the border.
Israeli government minister Benny Gantz derided the barrage from the Lebanese border — raising new fears of a second front of the war opening on Israel’s northern border.
“The hourglass for a political settlement is running out,” Gantz told reporters.
“If the world and Lebanon’s government will not work to stop the shooting at Israel and to distance Hezbollah from the border, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) will do so.”
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-12/
OBSERVATION - Rhetoric continues to build up towards an eventual full out conflict with Hezbollah. Israel has the leverage in that Lebanon has allowed Hezbollah to militarize the area south of the Litani River in violation of UN cease fire resolutions. By placing the requirement on Lebanon, Israel can free itself of some of the flack they will receive globally when they do step in - as per their rights under the UN resolution - to remove the threat themselves.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IAF struck targets around Damascus overnight, no word on exact targets, but likely Hezbollah/Iranian related.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli forces clashed with Palestinian fighters in 11 locations across the West Bank on December 28.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The USS MASON (DDG 87) shot down one drone and one anti-ship ballistic missile in the Southern Red Sea that were fired by the Houthis between 5:45 - 6: 10 p.m. (Sanaa time) on Dec. 28. There was no damage to any of the 18 ships in the area or reported injuries. This is the 22nd attempted attack by Houthis on international shipping since Oct. 19
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete.
Israel also continues to pound Lebanon and the UN concerning their failure to demilitarize S Lebanon of the Hezbollah presence. Israel’s finger is on the trigger and some of the escalation in IAF airstrikes by be a means of poking the bear into action that could justify Israeli assaults into Lebanon. Bit by bit, Israel continues to take out Hezbollah positions/command posts/logistics, throughout S Lebanon - a death by a thousand cuts. Hezbollah has a lot of depth and redundancy in their system but just how long will they be able to maintain it under constant IDF pressure and attacks? Israel is fighting the next war now, and I’m not sure how much Hezbollah understands that.
Iraq -
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani announced that his administration will begin procedures to remove International Coalition forces from Iraq during a press conference on December 28, likely due to pressure from Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. This would be a big win for Iran and one they’ve been pushing for over a year to achieve.
OBSERVATION - Further evidence of a crumbling US foreign policy. However, this is believed to eventually turn and bite Iraq in the rear end as such a decision to expel US forces will very likely create space for ISIS to rapidly resurge in Syria and Iraq within 12 to 24 months.
Lebanon -
See Israel warning above.
Syria -
IAF airstrikes around Damascus overnight
Venezuela - Increasing potential for war
Venezuelan President President Nicolás Maduro has announced that the Venezuelan armed forces will be carrying out defensive exercises in the East Caribbean off the country’s east coast, and next to its border with Guyana as tensions between Venezuela, Guyana, and Britain heat up.
The announcement followed Venezuela’s renewal of its claim on a disputed portion of Guyana, and the response of the British Royal Navy by sending the HMS Trent River-class offshore patrol vessel which had been deployed to the Caribbean Sea in early December to “hunt drug smugglers”. Guyana is still part of the commonwealth of Great Britain and is the only S American country who’s official language is English.
Argentina -
18 days ago, President Javier Milei was inaugurated in Argentina. Since then:
-Eliminated 12 out of 21 cabinet posts
-Firing 5,000 government employees
-Ending 380k government regulations
-Banned woke language in the military
-Bill to affirm the right to self-defense
-Bill to legalize homeschooling of kids
-Proposal to punish all riot organizers
-Future welfare cuts for road-blocking
-Legalized paying contracts in bitcoin
-Privatization of state-run companies
-Opened up the Argentina oil industry
Socialists have started protests of the massive changes Milei has instituted.
2023 In Review and 2024 Outlook.
Economy -
In 2022, I said the pundits were pretty fixed on a 2023 recession - very deep and destructive and I was inclined to believe them. Some how, the economy staggered thru 2023 with out such a recession.
Inflation has been dragged down to the 3.1% range - if you believe the cooked numbers from the regime and ignore your receipt at the grocery store. This was in part due to historic prime rate increases by the fed, rate increases that also helped to cripple the housing, pricing new and used homes way out of reach - and in the midst of the ongoing great internal migration.
Oil and other energy prices regained some stability and lowered in some instances - but the causation factor is not good. Lower gasoline prices due to less demand - a common symptom of economic downturn of a recession. One of the big players has been China, who was expected to get its production running back to speed, increasing oil demand. That is what OPEC factored in at the start of the year, only to see them having to cut production to try to stabilize oil at a higher price. At the same time, US oil production ramped up to record levels - inspire of the regimes efforts to kill it - continuing to lower pressure on prices.
The first half of the year saw some of the largest bank failures in decades. The Silicon Valley bank being the most severe. Its failure marks the tip of the iceberg that is also affecting other banks - low rate govt bond holdings. Unresolved losses from those bonds measure in the hundreds of billions of dollars across the board. The US Treasury took measures to paper over the damage, but it still exists and with increasing pressures of loan defaults/failures (homes, autos, etc) even more stress is being placed on banks daily. Some main line banks have dramatically begun closing out branch offices over the past couple months to help get their expenses down. There is a bomb smoldering in the banking sector that could easily ignite into a massive failure across the board.
Perhaps parallel to this is the incredible flop flop of the fed chairman concerning further rate hikes. In the first of December, the position was that the high rates will continue for the foreseeable future with no cuts in the prime rate. Less than three weeks later he flipped saying that now there could be 3 rate reductions (probably .25 basis points each) in 2024. What is driving this sudden change - the possibilities are pretty dark. One of the darkest suggests that the fed is now facing a depression situation with an economic collapse and a possible round of hyper inflation - based in part of the instability of the banking system. What ever it is, the flip flop is a big red flag.
Movement to CBDC gathered momentum in the US as well as other countries around the world. In the face of continued economic uncertainty, CBDC is now being offered as a sure way of getting your money - since it is all digital. There is a lot of resistance to the complete cancellation of cash here in the US as there is still a substantial portion of the economy and lifestyle that prefers physical transactions. And I think that the concerns of massive govt monitoring of spending and eventually programming of what you can spend has caught on to a degree.
Businesses across the board have been closed this past year. Walmart along with 19 other retailers closed a combined 2,847 locations as of Christmas, according to data collected by Business Insider.
Bed Bath & Beyond, Party City, and Rite Aid also filed for bankruptcy, citing multiple reasons, including financial struggles.
Rampant looting has been another factor for store closures, hitting cities like San Francisco and LA severely.
Key financial sector that has been hit hard is the housing industry. Record high home prices (both new and used) combined with near record high mortgage rates have hammered the sector, with sales dropping by record amounts as Joe Citizen just can’t afford the costs. Economists look to the sector as a test of the health of the economy, and they are concerned by what they see.
What is the forecast for 2024? Over the course of 2023, economic prognosticators have stated that the recession had been ‘postponed ‘ to 2024 and would range from a nothing burger, the so-called “soft landing” to a moderately severe one. With 2024 being a crucial election year, it is not surprising that regime supporting pundits would be leaning towards the ‘soft landing’ scenario. The big question is - are they right?
We are long overdue for an economic downturn with all the accompanying pain and suffering, but it hasn’t started yet. There are many new economic factors that have emerged from the wuhan shutdown that seem to be outside the standard economic prediction models. The biggest being the continuing weakness in some supply issues. The second is the impact of the massive inflation of 2022 and the less than stellar growth of wages in keeping up with it. Third, impacts of layoffs as well as businesses being unable
A recession could trigger a domino effect - hitting an already wobbly banking sector and businesses. These could combine to drive us into a real deep recession.
Should such a calamity occur, one govt “solution” would be to implement CBDC sooner rather than later. Second would be to start the money printing presses, an act that would be almost guaranteed to trigger inflation and in the event of a severe economic downturn, possible hyperinflation.
What is the probability of these things happening in 2024? A lot of the uneasiness that came into 2023 has intensified in some sectors looking at 2024. And as with many other sectors - the political affects from an election year that even a mild recession could be the final nail in coffin for biden’s attempt at reelection. 2023 was a surprise in some ways and 2024 will likely have its share of surprises. Those who look at the housing market as a sector that leads the economy out of recessions and economic woes are not seeing any significant turnaround in 2024, and perhaps a worsening of the situation.
There are so many factors that can tip the economy into a tailspin currently stacked up that it is hard to except the happy days are here again sloganeering by the regime.
BTW - for some real doom porn on this topic, realize that the US is not isolated from the global economy and that any shock in the world could trigger a cascade effect throwing the entire world into a recession/depression, taking the US with it.
All I can say is I’m reevaluating my supplies and situation in the event of worse case scenarios.
Hypothetically speaking, and I am speaking hypothetically here, suppose someone moved a bunch of BIG alligators from east Texas to south Texas?
They wouldn't be crossing state lines.
Wading the Rio Grande with the possibility of being eaten might, just might, discourage some of the hordes of military aged men from invading our country...
Hypothetically speaking, and I am speaking hypothetically here, suppose someone moved a bunch of BIG alligators from east Texas to south Texas?
They wouldn't be crossing state lines.
Wading the Rio Grande with the possibility of being eaten might, just might, discourage some of the hordes of military aged men from invading our country...
Keep giving them ideas . . . .
Works for me
2023 In Review and 2024 Outlook.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
2023 saw the start in a significant decline of the readiness of US forces in all branches. They have been falling for the past several years, but 2023 was almost like falling off a cliff. All services failed and failed bigly to meet recruitment and retention quotas. The general view is that the wokness of the military today is driving that sector of the nation that has traditionally volunteered for service. Combined with that is the evidence that the govt no longer is looking out for the service men and women’s well being. This being borne out by the military reversal on the wuhan jab issue and transgenderism along with CRT being for front instead of training for combat. Add to this those who wear the start saying that promotions should no longer be based merit, but on race and gender issues. And finally, soldiers are once again having to rely on food stamps and poor housing / barracks living conditions.
This has driven the left’s lust to reinstate the draft, a disaster in the Vietnam era. A way to bring equity to the service.
The prolonged Ukraine war, now along with support to Israel, has exposed just how low our stockpiles of critical ammunition and weapons systems have become. Replacement for artillery ammo alone is only at 1/3 the rate it is being consumed. Our munitions have been drawn down so severely that in the event of a war with China we would be in a world of hurt.
In large part due to (deliberate) ineptitude of the regime’s foreign policy, our military finds itself increasingly exposed to low level threats that in the past weren’t tolerated. In many instances making us out to be a paper tiger of sorts. Our military won’t even directly confront Houthi’s - at the orders of the pentagon - again, projecting an aura of weakness dangerous in the climate of the middle east.
2024 is going to be even more hazardous for our military.
- I do not foresee direct involvement in Ukraine.
- There is an increasing possibility of direct conflict with Iran as the Gaza war grows and expands
- There is an increasing possibly of limited conflict with China should they decide to blockade the island in the event the Taiwan elections go against them.
- One wildcard here is military deployment here in the states to provide civil disobedience control in the event of pre-election riots or even federally declared martial law.
- Our military stockpiles will continue to be at dangerously low levels for the next several years until manufacturing can get tooled back up to higher production levels.
Or in the event we're drawn into a war with Iran or one of Iran's proxies. If Biden can't put American first, he ought to at least put us second or third...
I think we’re about 5th or 6th.
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