Tomorrow being Christmas, I’ll be standing down for the day - barring any earthshaking event. Have a merry Christmas with your friends and families.
Globalism / Great Reset –
At one time derided as for ‘doomsdayers’, bunkers are becoming mainstream - especially for the rich. Mark Zuckerberg is building a 5,000 square-foot doomsday bunker in his sprawling Hawaii compound. He’s far from the only billionaire living in fear of what they all call ‘The Event’.
Will it be global environmental breakdown? Societal collapse (probably accelerated by the technology some of them built)? Nuclear war? Standard practice is showing that they are stocked for a one year minimum self-sustainment.
RELATED - The World Economic Forum (WEF) and its fellow unelected globalist leaders are pushing for governments around the world to phase out fossil fuels. Leading experts have spoken out against their plans and are warning the public that the WEF’s “Net Zero” goal to eliminate fossil fuels will result in the deaths of over four billion people or more.
The “Net Zero” target to end fossil fuel use is part of the WEF and UN’s “Agenda 2030” and “Agenda 2050” plans for humanity and involves dramatically reducing fossil reliance by 2030 and completely eliminating their use by 2050.
Danish statistician Bjørn Lomborg is just one who has warned that ending fossil fuel use will lead to the deaths of around half of the world’s population through starvation alone.
“4 billion people are dependent on fossil fertilizer for food,” Lomborg notes. “Without, 4 billion will starve to death. “
https://expose-news.com/2023/12/23/experts-warn-wefs-net-zero-goals-will-kill-4-billion-people/
Neil Record reported: “If we literally just stopped using fossil fuels and “did without the natural resources on which the world, its economies and populations depend, most likely six billion people would die within a year.”
(Global power failure similar to the “One Second After” scenario)
Members of the WEF have repeatedly suggested that mass reductions in the number of humans on earth would help the organization reach its green agenda goals, and as Slay News has reported, Dennis Meadows who is a “celebrated member of the WEF, has called for a staggering 86 percent reduction in the population of humans.
https://slaynews.com/news/wef-member-90-population-reduction-solve-globalists-problems/
OBSERVATION - Speculation on what globalist powers that be have up their sleeves has been floating around out there for years. The now extinct, Georgia Guide Stones stated that the world would be drastically depopulated to around 500 million. Additionally include the Deagel’s 2025 Depopulation Forecast as well as WEF commentary and things get interesting.
Once again, some of the sources I cited need to be held away from the body a bit, but they do cover similar statements publicly made for years now. The global elite are preparing for something devastating and some evidence suggests that this “event” is coming soon. I concur, something big is on the horizon, but I don’t think the ‘elite’ will get away from its impact the way they indicate that they will.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Pro-hamas demonstrations focused on Christmas related events yesterday. A highway to Chicago O’Hare International Airport was blocked by pro-Palestine demonstrators just ahead of Christmas Eve rush.
Thousands of Pro-Palestine protestors took to the streets of Manhattan’s 5th Avenue for a protest themed “NO CHRISTMAS AS USUAL”. As the streets are filled with holiday shoppers as well.
More protests are planned for today and Christmas Day. The next big target time period for protests will likely be New Years Eve and Day. After this the holiday season will fast disappear in the rear view mirror, meaning that the pro-hamas consortium will have to find new venues to protest to maintain their momentum. Recent protests have accomplished a couple things. First, to intimidate the average citizen and second create negative feed back to their cause.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Maintain alert status through the rest of the holiday season.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
US lead ‘coalition’ to protect Red Sea shipping is falling apart fast.
POLITICAL FRONT –
See efforts to keep the infamous Chinese balloon under wraps from the citizens under biden/harris watch below.
Biden / Harris Watch –
On a Friday evening last January, Gen. Glen VanHerck, the Air Force commander in charge of defending American airspace from foreign intrusion, called President Joe Biden’s top military adviser, Gen. Mark Milley.
U.S. intelligence officials had just notified the general that for roughly 10 days they had been tracking a mysterious — and enormous — object flying over the Asia-Pacific, VanHerck told Milley. The object had crossed into U.S. airspace over Alaska and VanHerck said he planned to dispatch military jets to fly alongside it and assess what it was.
Administration officials at first hoped to conceal the balloon’s existence from the public, and from Congress, according to multiple former and current administration and congressional officials.
OBSERVATION - How in the heck to categorize this mongazo? What a bunch of clowns in the military and WH - let the thing fly over and keep it secret. smh
Illegal Immigration –
Biden administration is allowing illegal immigrants to travel around the country with nothing but their arrest warrants as identification. The migrants obtain the warrants when they are arrested for illegally crossing the border. The TSA confirmed to Fox News that yes, this form of identification is all that’s required.
TSA claims these illegals receive ‘additional screening’, but there is no evidence of this.
OBSERVATION - This story has been out there for over a month but has reappeared on the radar following reports of commercial flights filling up with these non-documented illegals being shipped to parts unknown in the US.
American citizens have to undergo a lot of screening just to get on a flight, special access ways have been created for these illegals.
China –
A top secret Chinese spaceplane that launched into orbit last week is sending strong signals over North America. The craft - dubbed Shenlong after a spirit dragon from Chinese mythology - has released six mysterious objects after reaching the Earth’s orbit for the third time in three years.
Amateur astronomer Scott Tilley has been tracking the plane and examining the signals they have been emitting. He told DailyMail.com they appear to be sending the strongest signals while passing over North America.
OBSERVATION - Clone of the US spaceplane.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Closing in on the two year mark for the Ukraine war, analysts evaluating the force posture of the Russian army see the wear and tear on its command structure. Officers of all grades, particularly higher grades, have been lost in large numbers - leaving units with undertrained and unexperienced officers to continue the attacks.
The body of active duty has been sustained thru almost continuous but low grade mobilization actions. But these only supply meat. Training and equipment of these forces is reportedly abysmal. Increase use of hardened criminals in prisons for ‘shock’ troops continues to rise. So, even though Russian forces still outnumber Ukraine forces, they continue to be incapable of successful major operations, losing massive numbers of armor and personal for minimal gains.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
RUMINT – Ukraine to receive the first of its F-16s before the end of the year.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 of 15 Shahed drones, launched by Russia.
Russia renewed attacks around Adviivka and the bridgeheads across the Dniper River near Kherson.
Rumors that following the shoot down of 3 SU-34 fighter-bombers, Russia stopped flying ground attack sorties. They were flying in neighborhood of 40-60 per day.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations, resulting in very little significant combat overnight.
Russia’s air force appears to be standing down for the moment. The unexpected appearance of Patriot systems in an area the once had mostly free reign has shocked the command. Analysts are noting that once the F-16s become operational, Russian air power will suffer further in that the F-16 likely will operate within cover of Patriot systems - enabling them to hit Russian positions while the Patriots keep Russian fighters at bay.
This Patriot/F-16 combination could become decisive if /when Ukraine attempts its winter offensive campaign.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Increased fighting in Central Gaza
- Houthi and Iran launch strikes on shipping.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Numbers and intensity of airstrikes in central Gaza have increased the past few days as the focus of IDF ground operation shift from N Gaza southward.
***
The IDF has allegedly informed Egypt of its intention to occupy the Rafah border area and asked Egyptian soldiers to evacuate the area, Arab media reported.
The report also stated that the IDF emphasized to the Egyptians that from now on the IDF would not be responsible for the security of Egyptian forces in the area, while the IDF is attempting to occupy the border area, and emphasized that the military operation in the area will continue whether Egypt agrees or rejects it.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Border fight continues with little change as Hezbollah continues to fire mortars and ATGMs along the Lebanon border, with IDF artillery and air strikes in response.
Israel continues to strike more important Hezbollah combat facilities besides those immediately firing on IDF units. The increasing depth and target set continues to indicate Israel is working to shape the battle field for an eventual strike into S Lebanon in the near future.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Maritime security firm Ambrey reports that a ship affiliated with Israel that had been sailing off the coast of India was attacked by a UAV. The attacking aircraft was believed to have been launched from Iran, among the first direct steps Iran has taken against Israel throughout the war.
The vessel attacked was a chemical freighter flying a Liberian flag. Ambrey reports that it had last called in Saudi Arabia, and was destined for India. After the attack, the vessel called the Indian Air Force for assistance, and Indian aircraft and warships were dispatched to provide assistance.
The crew and ship were determined to be safe despite the attack.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned they could force the closure of waterways other than the Red Sea if “America and its allies continue committing crimes” in Gaza.
“They shall soon await the closure of the Mediterranean Sea, (the Strait of) Gibraltar and other waterways,” Tasnim quoted Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naqdi, coordinating commander of the Guards, as saying.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces actions through out the West Bank to capture/neutralize Hamas and related terrorists. Skirmishes reported in several locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iranian backed militia in Iraq attempted to fire a drone toward Israel overnight.
Iran fired anti-ship drone at a tanker in the Indian Ocean.
According to U.S. Central Command, the USS Laboon (DDG-58) an Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyer with Operation Prosperity Guardian in the Red Sea conducted a shoot down of 4 one-way attack drones launched by the Houthi Terrorist Group in Yemen towards International Shipping Lanes in the Region; the shoot downs followed the detection of 2 anti-ship ballistic missiles being launched into the Red Sea from Houthi Controlled-Territory which resulted in no damage or casualties
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Allied shipping defense under Operation Prosperity Garden is hitting the rocks.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete. Action now is almost elatively routine.
Search and destroy operations moving into Central Gaza. Hamas and affiliated forces are running out of maneuver space. They are reports to be putting up a fight, but are vastly out gunned and out maneuvered.
Houthi and Iran are calling the US’ bluff on Operation Prosperity Garden. With ‘coalition’ forces refusing to operate under US command, the Sec State, Sec Def and Sec Trans (?!?) are trying to fight this battle. There is no apparent plan by the US other than to try to swat drones down and nothing to strike launch and drone/missile storage areas.
This very apparent US weakness is made worse by Iran attacking shipping in the Red Sea. They have nothing to fear from US retaliation as they seen the US basically sitting on their hands from all the other “ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” attacks. This is not going to end well as sooner or later one of our ships will be hit, likely by a swarm attack of dozens of these drones and anti-shipping missiles. Houthi and Iran have no fear of retaliation at the moment. And lacking real coordination with ‘allied’ naval vessels only makes matters worse.
Iran’s threat to close off the Med at the straits of Gibraltar is interesting and more likely propaganda than actual potential. It is possible that IRGC forces in coordination with islamic rebels in Morocco - however, that country broke relations in 2022 after it was revealed that Hezbollah guided forces (polisario ) were training to overthrow the govt.
Algeria is known to be on good terms with Iran. Algeria’s role as a facilitator of Iran’s destabilization acts in North Africa is pretty well established and is now considered to be the new base of Iranian influence in Africa. Algeria could serve as a launching base for anti-shipping drones, being well within range of the Straits of Gibraltar, and thus able to make good this threat.
One thing is certain. biden’s bumbling foreign policy is only making matters worse.
Iran –
See Israel above - shooting at and hitting oil vessel in the Indian Ocean.
Iraq -
See Israel - Iranian backed militia attempted to fire a drone at Israel.
Someday, if history is a guide, these people will be looked at like the Nazis or Stalin.
There was no peace on earth yesterday, so today’s post is quite long.
Globalism / Great Reset –
TMobile has quietly updated their TOS to include fines for content they don’t agree with. Beginning on January 1, 2024, they will be fining users who commit perceived violations on their bandwidth.
S.H.A.F.T. is an acronym that stands for Sex, Hate, Alcohol, Firearms, and Tobacco. It outlines the categories of text messages specifically regulated due to moral and legal issues and is monitored and enforced by the Cellular Telephone Industries Association (CTIA) and the mobile carriers.
OBSERVATION - TMobile is following the desires of the WEF overlords in not only monitoring your communications- in particular your text messages - but in enforcing what they define as ‘hate’. This becomes just another actor for the govt - that nasty private/public partnership to quell anything contrary to the narrative. This will likely be challenged in court as the CTIA is not a legal, governmental body. it will likely cause users who may be concerned to use encrypted messaging to prevent viewing - a action that TMobile et al may just flat out block as a pushback.
***
Speaking of censorship -
The European Union (EU) launched “formal infringement proceedings” into X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter owned by Big Tech mogul Elon Musk, accusing it of failing to counter illicit content and disinformation, a lack of transparency about advertising and “deceptive” design practices. The European Commission’s executive branch also vowed to permanently shut it down if the platform doesn’t immediately ban alternative media.
“The evidence we currently have is enough to formally open a proceeding against X,” Margrethe Vestager, the 27-nation bloc’s executive vice president overseeing digital policy, said in a statement. “The Commission will carefully investigate X’s compliance with the [Digital Services Act] DSA, to ensure European citizens are safeguarded online.”
The announcement of the probe comes weeks after the microblogging site was asked to provide assurances that it was complying with the terms of the European bloc’s DSA, a regulation to update the Electronic Commerce Directive 2000 regarding illegal content, transparent advertising, and disinformation. It was submitted along with the Digital Markets Act by the European Commission to the European Parliament and the Council in December 2020. Under the law, which came into effect in August, a company can be fined up to six percent of its annual global income or banned from operating in the EU if it is found to have breached the sweeping legislation.
https://www.naturalnews.com/2023-12-25-eu-to-shut-down-x-if-independent-media-isnt-banned.html
OBSERVATION - Threats from the EU on censorship related issues have hit other platforms over the past few years. In many instances media like facebook has rolled over to their demands. However, as X is a US based company, international threats are interesting as it has protection under US laws IIRC.
This has little to do with Europeans, but very much everything to censor US users - an enforcement of a ‘law’ that we have no means to address.
Write this down as another effort of the globalists - whom the EU are in bed with - to shut down all forms of free speech. This is building to be one of the big battles - free speech - that is building for 2024.
***
The war on farming ramps up in Europe. Already seething in the Netherlands and France, it has expanded to Germany. The German government’s CO2 price increase beginning from January 2024 will make petrol, heating and electricity more expensive.
Already Germany’s industry is shrinking rapidly and farmers are now protesting nationally due to high fuels costs. These protests are rapidly expanding and a national day of protest in planned for January 8, 2024. Many of the working class are expected to join in.
Currently the price is 30 euros per ton and it will rise to 45 euros per ton beginning in 2024.
OBSERVATION - The attack on agriculture is hitting a tipping point in Europe with outsized increases in fuel costs as well as restrictions on the use of fertilizers and other methane “sources” (i.e. cow farts). The estimates that the German Agriculture industry will lose 1 Billion euros with the new laws.
You control food - you control the population.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
See “Black Swans” below on potential regime supported event that could trigger components of a CW2 scenario
***
Interesting demographic shift of the Great Migration. During the past several years, we have seen a mass exodus of conservatives from blue states. For example, Fox News is reporting that 65 percent of those that have recently moved to the state of Idaho are Republicans, and only 12 percent are Democrats
***
Protesters entered the Tacoma Mall and followed through with their planned demonstration and disrupting holiday shoppers. Antifa and people associated with the Black Panther party are marching through the mall and trying to get others to join. They want vengeance after three Tacoma Police officers were acquitted in the Manny Ellis trial.
***
NYC thrown into chaos on Christmas as pro-Palestine protesters clashed with police. Reports of multiple police officers injured and protesters shouting “Allahu Akbar”
New York Police Department issued a Level Three mobilization for the large protest. Numerous altercations have broken out between the two resulting in reported injuries to multiple officers. The extent of the injuries is currently unknown at this time. Police have also reportedly made multiple arrests
NOTE - anonymous source at the NYPD is warning that Pro hamas and Pro Palestinians protesters and rioters are planning to riot on New Years Eve in NYC. The source stated that the rioters are planning to stress out the cities resources. Keep in mind every new year’s the threat level is elevated due to terriost threats.
Pro-hamas protestors disrupted other Christmas events around the country saying that there will be no Christmas until there is a cease fire and Israel is eliminated.
OBSERVATION - New Years will be the last big public celebration for a while and the turn towards violence over the Christmas weekend suggests that even more violence will occur in key cities like NYC that night.
***
RELATED - The Answer Coalition posted video of Shut it Down for Palestine agitators staging a demonstration outside of Biden’s Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s home and that of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on Christmas morning.
They blocked the road in front of Austin’s home and blasted their demands on megaphones and loudspeakers.
They said that “protesters rally on Christmas morning outside the home of ‘Defense’ Secretary Lloyd Austin, a key participant in the genocide in Gaza. No Xmas during genocide! End all U.S. aid to Israel! Ceasefire now!”
“Austin we are at your gate!” They chanted through megaphones. “Justice is our only fate!” The protesters had podiums covered with blood emblazoned with the logo of defense contractor Lockheed Martin. They waved Palestinian flags and carries signs saying “Palestine will be free.”
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Maintain alert status through the rest of the holiday season.
***
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., revealed that her home was swatted on Christmas, with her family present
“They know who did it. A man named Ben McLean did it and offered an absurd excuse, and he has not been arrested. The lack of urgency is jaw-dropping. McLean said he wasn’t going to hurt anybody, so it’s all good.”
Other congress critters and high profile media types were also swatted over the holiday in what appears to be a coordinated action.
***
A record number of individuals of interest on the watch list have also been attempting entry at U.S. ports of entry on either the northern or southern border.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
The World Health Organization (WHO) issued a global outbreak alert on Friday due to a significant rise in dengue fever cases.
This alarming increase has seen cases surge 10-fold, from approximately 500,000 to 5.2 million globally, marking an unprecedented peak in the disease’s spread. Notably, 129 countries have reported cases, nearing a historic high. The majority of these infections have occurred in the Americas.
Dengue fever is primarily transmitted to humans through infected mosquitoes, with urban and semi-urban areas being the most affected. While most dengue cases are asymptomatic or result in mild illness, some can lead to severe complications, including shock, severe bleeding, organ impairment and even death.
In the United States, at least 225 dengue cases were reported by August 2023, with Florida being the primary location for these infections.
OBSERVATION - Some claiming global warming the cause. Interesting that the outbreak in Florida seems to coincide with the release of Bill Gates’ genetically modified mosquitoes. With the northern hemisphere in winter, outbreaks this summer are speculative at best.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The RNC has hit the rocks with less than $10 million in the coffers as Rona McDaniel’s mismanagement and appropriations of funds for her own use have come out. 2023 she spent over $2 million on personal and other wasteful expenses. This is on top of an already anemic RNC response and support of republican candidates - specifically only those who fall into the squishy RINO mode of here uncle - Mitt Romney. Her partisan mismanagement has caused calls for her ouster to increase as donations to the RNC have decreased.
***
Interesting article on reviewing the hags on the “View”. Intellectually challenged arrogant ignoramuses with delusions of adequacy, they speak a lot of what the left is thinking and desiring. In the article linked below, they reflect the current considerations of leftists to destroy the constitution if necessary to bring Trump down - to preserve their definition of ‘democracy’.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Frustration that President Biden is trailing former President Trump in polls despite a growing economy is building at the White House.
Biden’s approval ratings have been low for more than a year, but recent polls have found him trailing Trump, the front-runner for the GOP presidential nomination, in a head-to-head match-up and in key swing states.
OBSERVATION - The next few month will be key for biden to turn the corner and regain any kind of advantage, but there are major land mines ahead. The potential of a (redefined) recession, another military debacle in the middle east, increased chaos and push back from the open borders policy, hunter’s legal woes, etc. Would a ‘false flag’ or ‘Black Swan’ event help them? We have only months to find out.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Microsoft is highlighting new state-sponsored attacks originating from Iran, specifically targeting employees within the US defense industrial base (DIB) organizations. These attacks are attributed to Peach Sandstorm, also known as APT33, a group believed to be backed by the Iranian government and active across various sectors globally since at least 2013.
The recent activity involves the deployment of a newly developed backdoor named FalseFont, allowing remote access to compromised systems, file execution, and data exfiltration to a command-and-control server. Microsoft observed this backdoor in November 2023 and notes ongoing improvements in Peach Sandstorm’s tactics.
Prior warnings from Microsoft detailed APT33’s password spray attacks targeting numerous organizations, emphasizing the importance of resetting passwords, enhancing identity security measures, and employing multi-factor and passwordless authentication to mitigate risks.
Illegal Immigration –
There is a huge caravan of mostly Central American and Caribbean migrants walking from southern Mexico with the goal of reaching the U.S.-Mexico border. There are thousands of people in the caravan.
Reuters reported that they walked from the southern border city Tapachula on Sunday to arrive in Alvaro Obregon to spend Christmas Eve in a public square and then continue walking north to cross Mexico until they reach the U.S. border.
8,000 people per day from one caravan. The southern border is already seeing daily averages of 8,000 to up to 10,000 illegal immigrants per day on a regular basis. It is an historic level of illegal immigration yet the Biden administration is deliberately allowing it to become the new normal.
OBSERVATION - These ‘caravans’ have been on the go since biden regime took power three years ago. Initially propaganda, these surges in illegals have become a persistent tsunami that have overwhelmed the border and our country. This ‘caravan’ contains just ONE day’s worth of crossing. Thus, at one time a few years ago this was incredible, it now pales in comparison to the vast numbers pouring across the border now.
Russia -
Hopefully I can get some time soon to reassess Russia’s current status
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
RUMINT – Ukraine has received the first of its F-16s.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Actually covers Christmas as well.
Weather continues to dominate action.
Long range game played big time over the holiday and last night
Explosions are noted near the occupied Crimea. Massive secondary explosions. Russian Ministry of Defense confirms Ukrainian hit the “Novocherkassk” (BDK-46), a Ropucha-Class Amphibious Landing Ship during the Attack. This ship barely escaped in March 24, 2022, the strikes in Russian-occupied Berdyansk, when her sister ship Saratov was sunk in the harbor. According to Telegram channels, a ship with Iranian ammunition was allegedly blown up. Massive, secondary explosions seem to confirm that information. Ship was docked at port facilities of Feodosia, Crimea - on the other side for the peninsula from Sebastanolpol.
Morning videos of the pier show the ship destroyed to the water line.
Russia’s Ministry of Defence said the large landing ship Novocherkassk was struck by Ukrainian aircraft carrying guided missiles.
The head of the Ukrainian Air Force said earlier its warplanes had destroyed the ship.
Map showing location of Feodosia in BBC link below
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/B10C/production/_132142354_ukrainemap.png.webp
Sunday - Ukrainian air defense shot down 28 of 31 Shahed drones, Kh-59 and Kh-31P missiles, Su-34 and Su-30SM planes!
Monday, Ukrainian Air defense shot down Kh-59 missile in Kryvyi Rih district. Ukrainian air defense also shot down 13 of 19 Shahed drones overnight.
Ukrainian Air Force claims to have downed another Russian Su-34 Monday in the Mariupol sector. General Staff has also confirmed the destruction of an Su-30 fighter jet over the Black Sea. The aircraft was part of the 43rd Independent Marine Attack Aviation Regiment, which is based in the village of Novofedorovka near Sak and is the main strike air component of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Ukraine is developing a longer-range version of its ground-launched Neptune cruise missile. The current Neptune has been frequently used to attack targets deep inside Russian occupied territory, or ships at sea and in harbor in the Black Sea.
The new version is called Long Neptune and is literally a longer version of the current 5.05-meter (nearly 17 foot), 895 kg (nearly a ton) Neptune missile with a 159 kg warhead and max range of 250 kilometers. The United States did the same thing with their similar Harpoon missile. Long Neptune will have a range of about 360 kilometers.
Crimean front —
Besides what was noted above, explosions were reported in Sevastopol
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Russian Territory –
Partisan Resistance ——
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations, resulting in very little significant combat overnight.
The deep hits against Russia continue. Two more of Russia’s front line fighters Su-30 and Su-34 taken down by probable Patriot system. Ukraine has been very smart in how it has deployed Patriot systems. The first batteries were in the NE region where upon activation they took out several helicopters and several fighter jets well into Russian territory. Since that time, Russia has ceased major air attacks in that sector.
Now a massive what both sides are calling an ‘airstrike’ taking out one of Russia’s few remaining large amphibious landing ships that they have been using to shuttle munitions and other supplies into southeastern Ukraine. The important note is “airstrike”. Look at the map at the link above and you see that Ukrainian aircraft would have had to penetrate a considerable distance there and back to strike Feodosia, and apparently do it unopposed by Russian ADA assets. Not even F-16 are that invincible and invisible.
One last take is if Ukraine can hit a target like Feodosia, the Kerch Strait Bridge is very vulnerable as a strike the size that took out the “Novocherkassk” could have easily disabled the bridge.
There may be some translation issues, and the attack conducted by British cruise missile systems. Still - no apparent response from Russian ADA to take them down. Leaves a lot of questions unanswered.
Bottom line is the Russian air force is facing a new challenge in the sky having lost 5 irreplaceable modern jets in just a few days and the Black Sea fleet eating another big loss.
I expect Russia to mobilize for a large drone/ballastic/cruise missile barrage in the coming days.
Europe / NATO General –
Several Muslim suspects have been arrested in France, Germany and Austria for allegedly planning Christmas terror attacks, according to reports, which say there’s a “very high level of terrorist threat” from Islamic terrorists in France. Spain is also on alert.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Serbian police used tear gas to stop hundreds of supporters of the opposition from entering the city council building in the capital in protest of what election spectators said were “widespread vote irregularities.”
On Sunday, thousands of activists gathered in the center of Belgrade, the capital of Serbia, in an anti-government demonstration to request the annulment of parliamentary and local elections that international election observers claimed were “unfair.”
Preliminary results from the state election commission show that the ruling populist Serbian Progressive party (SNS) received 46.72% of the vote in last weekend’s snap parliamentary elections.
According to an international monitoring mission on Monday, President Aleksandar Vučić’s improper influence, media bias, and voting irregularities, such as vote buying, gave the SNS an unfair advantage.
On Sunday, Vučić announced that the allegations were false statements supported by the political opposition. In addition, he stated that the turmoil was instigated by foreign nations. Calling the unrest a ‘color revolution’.
Speaking to the country amid the demonstration outside Belgrade Town Hall, Vučić referred to the protesters as “thugs” who wouldn’t be able to topple the government and declared, “This is not a revolution.”
OBSERVATION - Vote tampering by the ruling party. This has stirred growing discontent in Serbia with increasingly violent protests. This internal challenge to Vucic’s rule will turn his attentions inward and away from Kosovo for a while.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Fierce fighting in Central and southern Gaza with some of the heaviest bombing in weeks.
- Direct involvement by Iran in attacking an Israeli associated tanker in the Indian Sea threatens to expand the conflict
- US ‘coalition’ in the Red Sea has spun apart with major allies running their own convoying operations.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel is being attacked from seven separate theaters amid the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip, and the military has so far responded in six of them.b”We are in a multi-front war, we are being attacked from seven different arenas: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, [the West Bank], Iraq, Yemen, and Iran,” says Gallant at a meeting of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. “We have already responded and acted in six of these areas, and I say here in the most clear way, anyone who acts against us is a potential target, there is no immunity for anyone,” he adds.
***
Hamas and Islamic Jihad terror groups operating in Gaza have rejected an Egyptian-led truce proposal with Israel that would see the militants relinquish power in return for an end to the war, sources say.
The terrorists, who conducted the Oct. 7 massacre in Israel, have refused to take part in one of the biggest conditions laid out by negotiators in Cairo on Sunday: an end to Hamas’ reign in Gaza by forming a Palestinian parliament and holding free elections, according to two Egyptian security sources.
The terrorist organizations instead reiterated that the only thing they’re ready to discuss is a prisoner swap that would see more than 100 Israeli hostages released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners being held in Israel’s jails.
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The Israeli army announces the deaths of two soldiers killed during fighting in the northern Gaza Strip, bringing the toll of slain troops in the ground offensive against Hamas to 156.
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Speaking from his underground bunker, Hamas leader in Gaza makes first statement since Oct. 7.The architect of the massacre said Hamas was facing “fierce, violent and unprecedented battle” against Israel, but that his forces were “crushing” the IDF. He also claimed that Hamas has killed over 1,000 Israeli soldiers.
***
Israeli forces have reportedly killed some 8,000 Palestinian fighters in the Gaza war, a military spokesperson said on Sunday, adding that the figure was drawn from accounts of targeted strikes and battlefield tallies as well as the interrogations of captives.
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On Sunday, the IDF released multiple videos of the tunnels, which were discovered by troops from the intelligence and engineering corps, and which revealed large, cavernous command rooms, toilets, and work spaces. They also retrieved the bodies of 5 hostages that were murdered by Hamas.
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Egypt proposed a new outline for a hostage release deal on Sunday that would see Hamas release 40 Israelis taken into the Gaza Strip in exchange for a 14-day truce, Israeli and foreign media reported. Hamas has reportedly rejected the plan.
***
Hamas opened fire on civilians trying to get food from a relief truck, killing a boy and injuring others. The crowds later retaliated by burning down a Hamas/Palestinian police station.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Overnight combat centered on several areas. N Gaza around the Jabilia camp, C Gaza around Bureij and S Gaza in Khan Younis .
The Israeli Air Force struck more than 100 Hamas targets in the southern Gaza Strip overnight, in preparation for expanded ground operations in the area, the military says. According to the Israeli army, the targets included tunnel shafts, military sites, and other infrastructure used by Hamas operatives to target Israeli forces.
***
IDF sources tell the Wall St Journal that they were surprised at the vastness of Hamas military infrastructure in S Gaza. They have found more tunnels and weapons than expected. Sources indicated that this will cause operations to go on for potentially several months to search and destroy all Hamas and affiliated terror groups.
Hamas rocket launches into Israel have diminished, but have not stopped entirely, as the Israeli counter-offensive has advanced.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Border fight continues with little change as Hezbollah continues to fire mortars and ATGMs along the Lebanon border, with IDF artillery and air strikes in response.
Israeli media reported that a Hezbollah command center has been attacked. “The IDF says fighter jets have hit a Hezbollah military headquarters in Lebanon in response to attacks on northern Israel.
NOTE - This is an example of Israel shaping the battlefield for an eventual full scale war with Hezbollah, but is able to nibble at it one piece at a time to keep escalation of the current fight from spiraling upwards.
Roads and towns near the Lebanese-Israeli border were closed to civilian traffic on Monday morning until further notice, due to escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.
The affected cities and towns include Kiryat Shmona, Snir, Dan, Dafna, Maayan Baruch, Kfar Yuval, Sha’ar Yishuv, Kfar Giladi, Hagoshrim, Metula, Beit Hillel, Misgav, Margaliot, Manara, Yiftah, Ramot Naftali, Dishon, Malkia, Avivim, Yir’on, Baram, and Dovev. Several roads in the area were also closed to civilian traffic until further notice, according to the Upper Galilee Regional Council.
The IDF Spokesperson’s Unit stated that the IDF struck several targets belonging to Hezbollah on Sunday night and Monday morning, including military structures, terrorist infrastructure, and operational infrastructure.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
A spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry on Monday called a US claim that Iran had attacked a chemical ship near India “baseless”. The Pentagon said on Saturday that a drone launched from Iran struck a chemical tanker in the Indian Ocean.
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Damascus and Aleppo airports were announced out of service following the recent IAF Israeli airstrikes.
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IAF conducted an airstrike on/near the Damascus airport that killed Seyed Razi Mousavi, one of the closest IRGC commanders to Qassem Soleimani and the commander of the Iranian forces in Syria. Iran confirmed his death Mousavi was responsible for coordinating the military alliance between Syria and Iran.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi says Israel will pay for killing Moussavi.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces actions through out the West Bank to capture/neutralize Hamas and related terrorists. Skirmishes reported in several locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Egyptian media reports explosions in Dahab on the shore of the Red Sea, could’ve been UAVs from Yemen
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Rocket attack on coalition’s base in Green Village, northeast Syria
***
In response to multiple attacks against coalition forces in Iraq and Syria, U.S. military forces conducted airstrikes against multiple facilities used by Kataib Hezbollah and affiliated groups in Iraq. Early assessments indicate that these U.S. airstrikes destroyed the targeted facilities and likely killed a number of Kataib Hezbollah militants. There are no indications that any civilian lives were affected. The U.S. military will continue to evaluate the effectiveness of these strikes.
NOTE - Three soldiers were injured by the Iranian-backed militia strikes.
***
Shipping giant Maersk resumes voyages through the Red Sea.
Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd will decide Wednesday how it will proceed with its Red Sea routes after suspending shipments there in response to safety concerns, a spokesperson said Tuesday.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
India is enhancing patrols in the Arabian Sea in response to the recent drone attack on the merchant ship MV Chem Pluto.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete. Action now is almost relatively routine. Action in Central Gaza increasing as the noose around various Hamas and affiliated terror groups strongholds continues to be tightened.
Israel airstrike that took out Iranian General Seyed Razi Mousavi has many military ramifications. First being a more deliberate provocation of Iran forcing them to respond and giving grounds for a larger Israeli retaliation. On another level, Mousavi would be the key coordinator of supplies and support to Hezbollah when Israel finally decides to attack into S Lebanon. The loss of this general will disrupt that coordination significantly, playing into the longer game of battlefield preparations
What Iran’s response to the taking out of Mousavi is yet to be seen. It is highly likely that Iran will strike a peripheral target rather than directly confront Israel at this time. That means that US forces in the region are under the gunsight of Iran. This is particularly true considering that the US presence has turned out to be more of a paper tiger than a true deterrent force. Given the regime’s anemic response to Iranian provoked attacks in the region by its proxy elements, they have a strong case that they can hit the US hard and little will be done in return.
Speaking of battle field preparations - IAF has been nailing even more key Hezbollah command and supply nodes. When war fully breaks out, Hezbollah will be hampered in its coordination of fighting elements and their ability to respond to Israeli ground movements. Israel then can isolate Hezbollah elements and destroy them in detail.
How soon this will all happen is unknown to me, but evidence is growing that once Israel is satisfied that it has dealt the death blow to Hamas, you can be sure Hezbollah is next.
Hamas leadership is shooting itself in the PR foot with such pronouncements that all food relief goes to Hamas and the civilian population gets the crumbs that fall off the table. Already, Hamas has been documented stealing truck loads of supplies and even shooting civilians.
Same for the attitude that Hamas is willing and wanting to have arabs killed by fighting for the ‘cause’. Their recent walk away from the Egyptian peace proposal is not helping their cause either. Brings back to the front the illegalities of taking and holding hostages in the first place and the ‘conditions’ they have for their release.
Iran –
See Israel above on the loss of Gen Mousavi.
Syria -
Rocket attack on coalition’s base in Green Village, northeast Syria
Mexico -
US State dept working hard to try to get Mexico’s support in curtailing the illegal flow into the southern border regions.
Misc of Note –
Meteorologists are closely monitoring a developing stratospheric warming event, forecasted for January 2024, which could signal a weakening or even collapse of the polar vortex. This significant atmospheric shift may herald a much-anticipated change in the weather patterns across the United States and Europe as winter deepens.
The strength and structure of the polar vortex significantly influence mid-latitude weather. A stable and robust polar vortex typically confines colder Arctic air, leading to milder conditions in the United States. Conversely, a weak or disrupted polar vortex allows cold air to spill into mid-latitudes, bringing colder, snowier conditions. Such disruptions are often marked by Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events, where the winds within the vortex weaken, indicating potential changes in weather patterns. As we approach 2024, forecasts predict a major slowdown of the polar vortex combined with a significant warming event.
The implications of a weakened polar vortex are profound, offering the possibility of a colder and snowier January compared to the warmer conditions experienced in December. While specifics are still emerging, the trends indicate a marked shift in weather patterns.
https://watchers.news/2023/12/25/potential-for-disrupted-polar-vortex-in-january-2024/
Note - The temperature of the polar stratosphere just set a 40-year low for the month of December.
OBSERVATION - Weather forecasting is a fickle matter. In this case, historical patterns are merging and the second half of winter could get very interesting. I’m monitoring its impacts further to the west here in the Redoubt. Current snow pack is 50-60% of normal, and we sure could use some more moisture in the mountains.
Black Swans NOTE - This is a cross reference with CW2 as well
Catherine Herridge, senior investigative correspondent for CBS News, is raising concerns about a “black swan event” happening in 2024.
The ominous statement aired Sunday on “Face the Nation” after moderator Margaret Brennan asked members of her panel to share their “big prediction” for the coming year.
“Well, mine’s a little dark. I just feel a lot of concern that 2024 may be the year of a black swan event,” Herridge said.
(t)he U.S. may have “a national security event with high impact that’s very hard to predict,” pointing to ongoing wars and U.S. division as factors creating “fertile ground for our adversaries like North Korea, China and Iran” to take advantage of.”
OBSERVATION - She is not the only political pundit expressing concerns over a Black Flag event in 2024, many others on both sides are ruminating on the same concern.
The key issue is just how will that Black Swan Event be used by the regime in 2024 and that could give a clue as to the potential nature of such event. Most likely candidate is to affect the presidential election in some manner. Potential scenarios - in no particular order - include
1 Declaration of martial law and cancelation of the election
2 Assassination (or attempt) of Trump
3 Something to trigger race riots incorporating the tens of millions of illegals into the mix
4 Crash of the economy
5 War with China or in the Mid East or even Russia in Ukraine.
The ominous coming together of multiple threats in 2024 has caught the attention by some on the left, suggesting that 2024 may well be the most dangerous year of our country’s history.
