Globalism / Great Reset –
See “Black Swan” below.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
‘Doctors Against Genocide’ initially announced that on December 28, they were planning on protesting inside(!) the US Holocaust Museum. Push back was immediate and hard, with this group announcing later that is was scraping the event, apologizes after uproar calling it a ‘misunderstanding’
OBSERVATION - You can bet that islamists will still show up there on that date and time anyway. These ‘doctors’ have succeeded in placing the idea into the minds of these anarcho-islamists.
***
Missouri and Oklahoma lawmakers have pre-filed bills for the 2024 legislative session that would eliminate state capital gains taxes on the sale or exchange of gold and silver, plus other measures. This is part of a trend to treat gold and silver as money free of any taxes instead of as commodities that are liable for taxes.
OBSERVATION - Posting here under CW2 rather than Economy because the establishment of parallel govt and in this case, currency issues, is a key marker of a growing split in the country. Establishment of gold/silver as a means of currency would be one work around to totally digital currency - maintaining a physical object for exchanges of goods and services.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Maintain alert status through the rest of the holiday season. Tracking warnings of rioting planned for NYC on New Years Eve.
Economy-
The US could fall into a severe downturn in early 2024 as a handful of recession signals flash throughout the economy, according to Briley Wealth’s chief investment strategist Paul Dietrich.
“Investors shouldn’t count on the central bank lowering borrowing costs unless the US economy falls into a severe recession — which may happen early next year,” Dietrich said. “The Fed typically starts cutting rates when there is a sharply slowing economy and rising unemployment — meaning a recession.”
Signs of a recession are starting to build, Dietrich notes. The stock market’s 20% rally this year is one such warning, he said, as the S&P 500 has typically posted outsized gains in the months leading up to a downturn. That was the case prior to the 2001, 2008, and 2020 recessions, when stocks rallied sharply before the economy began contracting.
There are other “stock market disconnects” that are making the case the economy will soon roll over into a downturn, he added. Though the S&P 500 is up overall for the year, the S&P 500 equal-weighed index, which is more representative of the average stock, has fallen into “correction territory,” Dietrich said.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/severe-recession-may-coming-2024-002714826.html
OBSERVATION - Continuing conflicting economic forecasts for 2024. Our economy has still lingering disfunction carried over from the wuhan shutdowns and shockwaves from that event. To try to predict future activity based on a “Before Years” model is scary for both the boomer and busters.
***
California Pizza Huts are laying off delivery drivers in order to brace for the nearly thirty percent hike in the minimum wage for fast-food workers set to kick in next April Fool’s Day.
Thanks to a new law signed by Democrat California Governor Gavin Newsom, the minimum wage for fast-food workers is set to jump from $15.50 to $20.00 an hour on April 1, 2024, Fox News reports
In anticipation of the higher costs, Pizza Hut franchises are laying off employees – including more than twelve hundred delivery drivers, some eliminating delivery entirely.
OBSERVATION - Actions have consequences and an April Fools Day link is appropriate. Not stated is how the loss of delivery drivers will impact the bottom line. I suspect that the delivery will be shifted to Door Dash and others. The franchise avoiding some of the costs, but the prices will rise in other ways for consumers paying delivery fees. Other fast-food chains, like McDonald’s and Chipotle, say they’ll simply pass the added cost on to consumers, in the form of higher prices.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
There are reports that the tropical disease leishmaniasis has been found in human children here illegally in Texas. The disease is spread by a sand fly and most commonly found in Iraq, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen.
The disease is fatal if not treated and can cause black fever and boils on the skin. For now it’s only been found in a few children, but doctors are watching to see if it spreads.
OBSERVATION - Needless to say, this disease is linked to illegals on the southern border. Besides the sand fly, it can be spread by contaminated needles (needle sharing) or blood transfusions. Congenital transmission (spread from a pregnant woman to her baby) has been reported. What is an even greater concern is that these millions who’ve poured into the country the past three years have had virtually NO screening for diseases that could spread to the population in general.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Democrat pollsters are seeing dissatisfaction with the biden regime over the lukewarm support of Israel in Gaza. They want a hostile anti-israel policy and they may drop of the vote this fall as a protest if biden remains on the ballot.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden said there “was no question” that former President Trump “lead an insurrection” on January 6th, adding that it was “self-evident,” but it is up to the courts to decide if Trump is disqualified from holding office
OBSERVATION - biden reflects the current desperation to disparage Trump’s candidacy based on now highly questionable events on J6.
Illegal Immigration –
CBP sources confirm migrant encounters have surpassed 250k for the month of December—On pace to break the previous record set in September of 269,735. The majority, 66k+ have entered through Arizona’s Tucson sector (Lukeville) this month—While 60k+ entered through Texas in the Del Rio sector (Eagle Pass).
***
Yesterday I noted that an estimated 8,000 asylum seekers are en route, marking the largest migrant caravan approaching the US since June 2022. These numbers have now been revised upwards to about 15,000.
China –
China has selected the commander of its submarine forces to be the overall chief of the PLA navy. Could note a change in goals and construction of the navy.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Logistics –
In the past few months, Ukraine has eliminated about 20% of the Black Sea Fleet.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 32 of 46 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. Targeted regions primarily the Odesa-Kherson area, the Dnipro region and west-central Ukraine.
Russia continues to make the focus of its ground offensive operations the Adviivka region.
In a follow up to the airstrike, Svoboda Radio reports that another ship was sunk during the missile strike, a former training vessel UTS-150.
The amphibious assault ship was reportedly loaded with Shahed drones and the secondary explosion so massive that fragments of the ship were scattered throughout the town, pretty much confirming the contents.
The drone attack overnight may be in part a retaliation for the destruction of the Novocherkassk.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate operations.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- On-going search and destroy operations across Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas Movement: We have repeatedly emphasized the motives and reasons for Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, foremost among which are the dangers threatening Al-Aqsa Mosque.
***
Israel announced Tuesday that it will no longer automatically approve visa requests from United Nations (UN) officials, due to the UN’s silence on Hamas terrorism and its apparent collaboration with Hamas within Gaza.Visas for UN officials will henceforth be considered on a case-by-case basis, Israel said.
OBSERVATION - The war has uncovered considerable evidence of UN compliance and support of Hamas’ war planning, operations and hostage holding. UN of course squeals loudly to the contrary until UN employees were found holding hostages, knowingly allowing military facilities to be constructed next to and within UN schools and hospitals, etc.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The IDF says it carried out strikes from the air, ground, and sea against some 200 Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip over the past day, as fighting continues.
In Gaza City’s Shejaiya, where Hamas’s battalion is believed to be largely defeated, reservists of the Yiftah Brigade identified Hamas operatives running between buildings, from which gunfire was previously directed at troops, the IDF says.
The reservists then called in an airstrike against the Hamas operatives, which the IDF says led to secondary blasts, indicating the area was booby-trapped.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Border fight continues with little change as Hezbollah continues to fire mortars and ATGMs along the Lebanon border, with IDF artillery and air strikes in response.
12 missiles were launched from southern Lebanon towards Israeli artillery positions in the Kafr Shuba hills
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
For contrast, Turkey and Syria have continued to target civilians in the Idlib and Aleppo regions over the past month - note - civilians.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces actions through out the West Bank to capture/neutralize Hamas and related terrorists. Skirmishes reported in several locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. assets, to include the USS LABOON (DDG 58) and F/A-18 Super Hornets from the Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group, shot down twelve one-way attack drones, three anti-ship ballistic missiles, and two land attack cruise missiles in the Southern Red Sea that were fired by the Houthis over a 10 hour period which began at approximately 6:30 a.m. (Sanaa time) on December 26
***
India’s Defense Minister Raksha Mantri Shri Rajnath Singh promised retribution for these attacks during the commissioning ceremony of INS Imphal (D68), the Indian Navy’s third Visakhapatnam-class destroyer.
“Those who have carried out these attacks, we will find them from the bottom of the sea, and strict action will be taken against them,” said Shri Rajnath Singh.
The defense minister emphasized India’s role as the “Net Security Provider in the entire Indian Ocean Region” and commitment to keeping the sea lanes open for greater regional trade in collaboration with international partners.
Shri Rajnath Singh also attributed these attacks to India’s “growing economic and strategic power,” which has “filled some forces with jealousy and hatred.”
OBSERVATION - India has no love towards moslems and Iran may well watch out for retribution.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Egyptian President receives the Jordanian King to discuss developments in the war in Gaza
An Iranian Revolutionary Guard spokesman says that Israel is trying to expand the Gaza war into an American-Iranian conflict
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete.
Houthih’s continue to target shipping with US knocking down anti-ship systems. Increasing condemnation of this policy by many nations - you have to target Houthi weapons systems, bases, logistics to set back the ongoing attacks.
This war may have triggered Iran to speed up enrichment of Uranium to 60% range and they may well be covertly going to the redline 90% value. With the loss of their Hamas weapon and the impending threat towards Hezbollah, Iran may be trying to accelerate their nuclear program to create a bomb to hold off the expected Israeli fight being shifted into S Lebanon. They do so at risk of Israeli first strike on Iranian targets.
Iran –
Iran recently tripled its enrichment of uranium to 60%, reversing a slowdown earlier this year, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported Tuesday.
Tehran has “increased its production of highly enriched uranium, reversing a previous output reduction from mid-2023,” said the U.N. watchdog, summarizing a confidential report sent to member states and obtained by Reuters.
Iran is enriching uranium up to 60% at the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) in Natanz and at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), which is located deep in a mountain, according to the report.
Since mid-June, those plants had been enriching uranium to up to 60% at a rate of about 3 kilograms a month, the IAEA said.
“The agency confirms that, since the end of November 2023, the rate at which Iran has been producing uranium enriched up to 60% U-235 at these two facilities combined has increased to approximately 9 kg per month,” according to the IAEA report.
Iran already has enough high-enriched uranium, if enriched further to 90%, to make three nuclear bombs, Reuters reported, citing the International Atomic Energy Agency’s theoretical definition.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/iran-nuclear-weapons/2023/12/26/id/1147265/
OBSERVATION - Iran is taking advantage of the global chaos and weak US deterrence to accelerate its program. They do so with great risk as Israel is more than willing to strike Iran for crossing the ‘red line’ of 90%. So far, there is no evidence that Iran has constructed a functioning nuclear device, let alone one capable of being made into a warhead and fired at Israel (or other suitable target). Suspicion continues of its time working with N Korea during the development of their bomb - where they could have obtained the technological knowledge to construct a bomb. Even more recently, its alliance with Russia and ‘technical’ advice they are allegedly to be receiving. Is putin willing to let a loose cannon terrorist country release the nuclear genie?
Black Swans -
I noted what appears to be risings of concerns about a 2024 Black Swan event. Let me clarify the concept of such an event. One definition of a Black Swan event is one catastrophic and global magnitude that is opens up new ways of functioning. It replaces the old with new methods, rules and technologies. Examples of black swan events include the Wall Street Crash of 1929 and Great depression, the dissolution of the Soviet Union, 9/11 terrorist attacks, the global financial crisis of 2008, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
All the components are in place in a number of sectors and the globalists are positioning themselves to pounce. Take stock of your preparations and plans accordingly.
“Iran already has enough high-enriched uranium, if enriched further to 90%, to make three nuclear bombs, Reuters reported, citing the International Atomic Energy Agency’s theoretical definition.”
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/iran-nuclear-weapons/2023/12/26/id/1147265/
Which comes first? Electing a sane President like Trump or Biden causing World War III?
Globalism / Great Reset –
WHO’s Tedros: “Our food systems are harming the health of people and planet. Food systems contribute to over 30% of greenhouse gas emissions, and account for almost one third of the global burden of disease. Transforming food systems is therefore essential”
Via United Nations:
Food is now firmly on the menu as a vital area of action to achieve global climate goals and countries have led the way- challenging themselves to do more, faster. The key COP28 outcomes represent a collective commitment to integrated action for food systems and climate, and provide powerful advocacy tools to drive forward action which delivers on these commitments at all levels. Though this is a huge step forward- we are still only at the start of the journey. While food systems action made monumental leaps within COP28 proceedings, the integration of nutrition considerations within this remains a vital area for joint advocacy. The phrase echoing through nutrition discussions was “a glass half full” – with the groundwork laid for integrated action, but much more work to do to integrate nutrition considerations into country NDCs and NAPs, and deliver on the vision of food systems for people, planet and prosperity.
Focus now turns to transforming this momentum into measurable results, with the 2024 COP29 in Azerbaijan and 2025 COP30 in Brazil serving as critical progress checkpoints. In line with their unique mandates, UN-Nutrition Members and partners stand ready to support countries in this mission, including championing healthy diets from sustainable food systems as a solution to achieve multiple Sustainable Development Goals and global climate targets. An exciting platform for this will be the scale up of the I-CAN initiative which is set to continue inspiring integrated action for climate and nutrition and monitoring change across food, health, social protection and water systems, as well as commencing country case studies for accelerated progress in 2024. Stay tuned!
https://www.unnutrition.org/news/people-planet-and-prosperity-nutrition-cop28
OBSERVATION - The effort is going forward without any input from the affected countries and people. Remember, I’ve said it before - control the food, control the people.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Anti-Israel protesters blocked the road leading to JFK airport in New York City, and LAX in LA, causing people to miss their flights home after Christmas. A similar action was done by Chicago O’Hare International airport.
Video footage of the highway blockade at JFK appears to show an interesting development in the far left’s use of the blockade tactic. They are using vehicles at the head of the blockade in addition to protestors. The new method is likely meant to prevent one of the people stuck behind the blockade from driving through or simply physically removing the protestors. (FO)
Protests quickly turned violent as police moved in to remove the protestors. In NY, 26 were arrested.
In LA, when the Los Angeles Police Department got involved around 9:30 a.m. after the protestors attempted to block the roadway with cement blocks and other objects. As officers moved in, the protesters took off running in different directions, while others were taken into custody.
OBSERVATION - While airport and road blockages may be an effective tactic at this time of year due to Christmas travel, one needs to look at how this may morph into next year. I have no insight only that the pro-hamas elements quickly embraced the blm/Antifa model for their purposes. Unlike 2020, it seems police are becoming more aggressive in removing protestors. When the holidays are past will that continue?
***
On Jan 13th pro Hamas March on Washington is being announced and organized.
OBSERVATION - After New Years, the pro-hamas movement will need something more to hang its hat on. Currently the domestic hate is vented towards democrats given the support expressed for Israel by biden. Conditions may be ripe for the protests to continue in that bent - adding additional woes to biden’s attempt at reelection.
Second item may be the morphing into a pseudo-civil rights movement where islamic radicals seek to impose shariah concepts on the US culture and bully their way into greater political power thru a more energized voting block.
***
Barry County, Mich. Sheriff Dar Leaf is offering a “militia course” for patriots in his county to use their 2nd Amendment rights to defend the homeland.
According to a Facebook post, Leaf is offering the course to “learn a militiaman’s duty.” He will provide a “certificate upon course completion,” and welcomes “potential jurors, homeschoolers, ladies & gentlemen.”
Leaf is one of the nation’s leading constitutional sheriffs. He is outspoken about the county sheriff’s duty to interpose their authority to reject unconstitutional and immoral laws at the federal and state levels.
In order to join the militia, Holton Township residents need to be the age of 18 or older, pass a federal firearms background check, and issue a letter or state on social media that they want to join the militia. The resolution was signed by the Holton Township clerk Malinda Pago, who also serves as the Co-Chair of the Michigan Republican Party
OBSERVATION - This is an indicator phase of the movement towards a potential hot civil war scenario. Development of govt and military forces to counter potential state/fed assaults on freedom is that marker. This militia could also serve to maintain order should violence and lawlessness spread from more urban areas in a sub-critical scenario.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Maintain alert status through the rest of the holiday season. Tracking warnings of rioting planned for NYC on New Years Eve.
Economy-
According to a survey released Wednesday by Rasmussen Reports, 41% of Americans say their overall financial situation is worse than it was six months ago.
The survey of 1,010 adults, conducted on Dec. 6-7 and 10, found that just a quarter of Americans expect their situation to improve in the months ahead; 38% say their financial situation has stayed about the same.
The margin of sampling error is plus/minus 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Other recent polls on finances had similar findings.
A Harris Poll conducted in mid-November found that 53% of Americans said their financial situation worsened in 2023, with 46% saying they expect to have credit debt heading into 2024.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/finances-situation-poll/2023/12/27/id/1147391/
OBSERVATION - The biden attempt to paint the economy as golden seem to be failing to exit the city limits of DC. Real people, real bank accounts and bills trump regime economists every time.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Mile post note - the Colorado Supreme court decision being the only outlier, Michigan joins the ranks of states tossing the multiple suits trying to get Trump off the ballot under the 14th Amendment.
***
Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger refuses to testify under oath about Secretary of State’s Dominion voting machines. Raffensperger - a rabid anti-Trumper, was key in having an in-depth investigation into alleged voting inconsistencies and violations stopped in 2020. Now it appears he lied in his certification the vote as well as saying that post election reviews were conducted. As this story unfolds, the narrative of a biden election win in Georgia is quickly becoming unwound.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden continues to vacation - now at about 39% of time in office spent on vacation.
Illegal Immigration –
New York City Mayor Eric Adams said he would issue an “executive order” requiring buses carrying migrants from Texas to New York to announce their arrival 32 hours in advance and only unload migrants between 0800 and 1200 on weekdays. Chicago has started impounding busses and fining operators.
OBSERVATION - Some of this could lead to lawsuits against the cities. But now TX has altered its tactic by chartering passenger planes to ship the illegals to these cities. And bus companies dropping off their loads in surrounding suburbs instead of the main cities.
***
The US and Mexico have vowed to crack down on migrant smugglers as a growing migration crisis causes chaos on their shared border.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador discussed how to stop the flow of people in talks held in Mexico City.
The high-level meeting came as pressure grows on the White House to stem the influx of migrants to the US.
US officials said last week that up to 10,000 people were crossing every day.
AMLO, hinted to the U.S. delegation that he will reduce migration to the United States if Biden gives more aid and support to Latin American dictators.
Instead of blocking migration, “it is more efficient and more humane to invest in the development of the people,” AMLO said before the Wednesday meeting.
“The migration issue is going to intensify” in 2024, he added.
Basically, the meeting was essentially all talk. That means no new commitments or agreements were settled on. The meeting in Mexico City was pure optics. AMLO gave no indication that he will assist in keeping more migrants on the southern side of the border in Mexico.
OBSERVATION - The recent diplomatic scramble to try to get support from Mexico to reduce the flow of illegals into the country must be hitting the red zone for democrat election planners. The impacts - especially in the dark blue metro areas - is causing his poll numbers to hemorrhage.
China –
Taiwan is just over two weeks away from key elections and China is increasing its focus on trying to influence the results by any means necessary. On Wednesday China warned of further trade sanctions on Taiwan in the event the ruling party “stubbornly” commits to supporting independence.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Tuesday issued some his strongest words on the issue thus far, vowing to use “any means” to prevent anyone from “making Taiwan secede from China.”
Current Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te, who serves under President Tsai Ing-wen and is a member of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), holds a narrow lead in the polls. His election would ire Beijing; he is an advocate for a more independent Taiwan and strongly opposed to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). A Lai victory would likely prompt aggressive moves from Beijing, including naval maneuvers and airspace intrusions.
OBSERVATION - Most probably move by China, beyond increased air and sea intrusions into Taiwan restricted space would be the blockade option. Though China has been working fast and has been somewhat creative in trying to get its navy ready to field an amphibious force, a full-on attack would be on the scale the the Normandy Invasion. Such an operation would be near impossible to hide with todays intelligence surveillance platforms and the Taiwan Strait would be a shooting gallery for all the transports. The risk to China would be very , very high, so the blockade action far more likely, though dangerous in itself as well. Invasion remains highly unlikely, especially when China is struggling with other crises.
***
The Chinese spaceplane, named Shenlong (meaning Divine Dragon), has placed the objects in Earth orbit since it was launched from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center on December 14. The existence of these objects has been confirmed by amateur spacecraft trackers.
OBSERVATION - A lot of speculation on these objects. Some think that they may be small anti- satellite systems.
***
Chinese state media recently revealed that a number of bank executives have committed suicide or died suddenly.
According to the authorities of Yingshan County, Hubei Province, Wang Shengyong, the president of the Yangtze River Village Bank in the county, died of carbon monoxide poisoning on Dec. 5 at the age of 54 years old. It was reported that Wang committed suicide after using his position to defraud depositors of 40 million yuan (about $5.6 million) under the guise of capital raising.
According to official media reports, Du Haitao, deputy general manager of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) Credit Suisse Asset, died of a heart attack while running on Dec. 13 at the age of 49. Born in 1974, Du was deputy general manager of ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management Co., LTD. and chairman of ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management (International) Co., LTD.
On Dec. 10, Gong Danzhi, the president of Huaxia Bank’s Tianjin branch, fell to his death. The local police station confirmed the news.
OBSERVATION - China’s economic woes continue and it is causing any rebound to falter. Clusters of banking execs who die ‘suddenly’ is a key indicator that Xi is trying to get the graft out of the banking.
North/South Korea –
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called for bolstered war readiness to repel what he said were unprecedented United States-led confrontational moves, state media reported Thursday, as rival South Korea vowed a stern retaliation against any provocations by the North.
Kim’s comments during the key political meeting tasked with setting state objectives for 2024 indicated North Korea will likely continue weapons tests to modernize its nuclear arsenal. Observers say Kim likely hopes to eventually use his boosted arsenal as leverage in potential diplomacy with Washington, possibly after the 2024 U.S. presidential election in November.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/north-korea-kim-jong-un-war/2023/12/28/id/1147442/
OBSERVATION - Nature abhors a vacuum, so in the absence of US leadership, Kim is seizing the opportunity to move forward with a more aggressive military preparations. A lot can happen in the time before the election. However, I don’t see NK in the position to launch an attack on the south at this time.
Japan –
A number of news articles popping up on the thoughts that Japan may be pushing soon for its own nuclear weapons.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Logistics –
Russia appears to be building yet another naval base for what remains of their Black Sea Fleet. The new base is being built in the Black Sea port of Ochamchire. This port is in Abkhazia, a Russian controlled area that used to be part of the pro-NATO Caucasus nation of Georgia. All this is happening in the distant northeast portion of the Black Sea, where the Russian warships are safer from attack by Ukrainian forces.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 7 of 8 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight
Tokmak Axis -.
Reports that Russia regained some terrain around Robotyne as Ukraine forces pulled back to more defensible positions for the winter.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are continuing to dictate ground operations, which are at a low level due to lack of maneuverability cross country and on dirt roads due to the mud.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hezbollah launched the heaviest missile attacks since Oct 7th.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a US-designated terrorist organization, said on Wednesday that Hamas’ Oct. 7 massacre in southern Israel was revenge for the 2020 assassination of IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani in a US drone strike — a claim swiftly denied by Hamas. “Hamas denies the validity of the remarks given by the spokesperson of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Brigadier General Ramadan Sharif, regarding the operation of the Flood of Al-Aqsa and its motives,” the group said.
NOTE - Earlier Iran denied all accountability for the attack. Internal fighting among terrorists.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli army spokesman: We added a brigade in the areas of the northern Gaza Strip.
***
Israeli soldiers destroyed a network of tunnels underneath and around a hospital and an adjacent girls school in Gaza City, the Israel Defense Forces said on Wednesday night.
The three shafts, dozens of meters deep, were connected by an underground network passing under Rantisi Hospital and leading to the heart of Gaza City, the IDF said. The tunnels also ran under and around the nearby Ramaz Fahrah School. A special elevator installed in the girls school descended 20 meters down to the shaft.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah on Wednesday unleashed multiple rounds of rocket attacks and multiple drone strikes reaching approximately three dozen total attacks on Israel, reportedly the most the group has launched in one day since October 7.
Israel’s military will act to remove Hezbollah from the border with Lebanon if its attacks continue, an Israeli minister has warned.
Benny Gantz said the military would intervene if militants do not stop firing on northern Israel.
Time for a diplomatic solution was running out, he added.
Meanwhile, the head of the Israel Defense Forces said troops were in “very high readiness” for more fighting in the north.
———WEST BANK——————————-
A massive operation by the Israel Defense Force is taking place throughout the West Bank overnight, as hundreds of armored vehicles and thousands of troops have stormed several cities across the region including Jenin, Nablus, Hebron, Ramallah, and Jericho in what appears to be an attempt to mass arrest of known Hamas and PIJ Terrorists. Heavy fighting has been reported in many of these cities where the operation is taking place.
The United Nations asks Israel to stop “lawless killings” in the West Bank
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
A kamikaze drone hit an open area in the southern Golan Heights on Wednesday night, with the Iran-backed militias in Iraq claiming responsibility for the attack. … Iraq said that they launched the drone toward a site near the town of Eliad in the Golan Heights “in support of Gaza.”
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Indian Navy has deployed 4 Kolkata & Visakhapatnam destroyers to the waters near Iran to prevent additional attacks on merchant vessels carrying crude oil and other goods to India
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete.
Fighting continues to escalate on the northern border with Hezbollah becoming more aggressive in its rocket campaign. Israel has planned for years to deal with Hezbollah and the relatively slow growth in the confrontation may well be working to its advantage. Intelligence on command, control, logistics, etc. are being revealed daily. IAF has also been targeting key Hezbollah nodes, acts that will hurt their ability to respond in a unified manner, allowing Israel to isolate and defeat Hezbollah forces in detail.
Rhetoric from Israeli officials/generals suggest that the assault into Lebanon may be sooner than some (including myself) are anticipating. I would expect that Israel would hold off until all of Gaza is largely under control and forces/support shifted for the attack to the north. Israel’s actions are naturally being held closely.
Mexico -
See Illegal Immigration above