2023 In Review and 2024 Outlook.
Economy -
In 2022, I said the pundits were pretty fixed on a 2023 recession - very deep and destructive and I was inclined to believe them. Some how, the economy staggered thru 2023 with out such a recession.
Inflation has been dragged down to the 3.1% range - if you believe the cooked numbers from the regime and ignore your receipt at the grocery store. This was in part due to historic prime rate increases by the fed, rate increases that also helped to cripple the housing, pricing new and used homes way out of reach - and in the midst of the ongoing great internal migration.
Oil and other energy prices regained some stability and lowered in some instances - but the causation factor is not good. Lower gasoline prices due to less demand - a common symptom of economic downturn of a recession. One of the big players has been China, who was expected to get its production running back to speed, increasing oil demand. That is what OPEC factored in at the start of the year, only to see them having to cut production to try to stabilize oil at a higher price. At the same time, US oil production ramped up to record levels - inspire of the regimes efforts to kill it - continuing to lower pressure on prices.
The first half of the year saw some of the largest bank failures in decades. The Silicon Valley bank being the most severe. Its failure marks the tip of the iceberg that is also affecting other banks - low rate govt bond holdings. Unresolved losses from those bonds measure in the hundreds of billions of dollars across the board. The US Treasury took measures to paper over the damage, but it still exists and with increasing pressures of loan defaults/failures (homes, autos, etc) even more stress is being placed on banks daily. Some main line banks have dramatically begun closing out branch offices over the past couple months to help get their expenses down. There is a bomb smoldering in the banking sector that could easily ignite into a massive failure across the board.
Perhaps parallel to this is the incredible flop flop of the fed chairman concerning further rate hikes. In the first of December, the position was that the high rates will continue for the foreseeable future with no cuts in the prime rate. Less than three weeks later he flipped saying that now there could be 3 rate reductions (probably .25 basis points each) in 2024. What is driving this sudden change - the possibilities are pretty dark. One of the darkest suggests that the fed is now facing a depression situation with an economic collapse and a possible round of hyper inflation - based in part of the instability of the banking system. What ever it is, the flip flop is a big red flag.
Movement to CBDC gathered momentum in the US as well as other countries around the world. In the face of continued economic uncertainty, CBDC is now being offered as a sure way of getting your money - since it is all digital. There is a lot of resistance to the complete cancellation of cash here in the US as there is still a substantial portion of the economy and lifestyle that prefers physical transactions. And I think that the concerns of massive govt monitoring of spending and eventually programming of what you can spend has caught on to a degree.
Businesses across the board have been closed this past year. Walmart along with 19 other retailers closed a combined 2,847 locations as of Christmas, according to data collected by Business Insider.
Bed Bath & Beyond, Party City, and Rite Aid also filed for bankruptcy, citing multiple reasons, including financial struggles.
Rampant looting has been another factor for store closures, hitting cities like San Francisco and LA severely.
Key financial sector that has been hit hard is the housing industry. Record high home prices (both new and used) combined with near record high mortgage rates have hammered the sector, with sales dropping by record amounts as Joe Citizen just can’t afford the costs. Economists look to the sector as a test of the health of the economy, and they are concerned by what they see.
What is the forecast for 2024? Over the course of 2023, economic prognosticators have stated that the recession had been ‘postponed ‘ to 2024 and would range from a nothing burger, the so-called “soft landing” to a moderately severe one. With 2024 being a crucial election year, it is not surprising that regime supporting pundits would be leaning towards the ‘soft landing’ scenario. The big question is - are they right?
We are long overdue for an economic downturn with all the accompanying pain and suffering, but it hasn’t started yet. There are many new economic factors that have emerged from the wuhan shutdown that seem to be outside the standard economic prediction models. The biggest being the continuing weakness in some supply issues. The second is the impact of the massive inflation of 2022 and the less than stellar growth of wages in keeping up with it. Third, impacts of layoffs as well as businesses being unable
A recession could trigger a domino effect - hitting an already wobbly banking sector and businesses. These could combine to drive us into a real deep recession.
Should such a calamity occur, one govt “solution” would be to implement CBDC sooner rather than later. Second would be to start the money printing presses, an act that would be almost guaranteed to trigger inflation and in the event of a severe economic downturn, possible hyperinflation.
What is the probability of these things happening in 2024? A lot of the uneasiness that came into 2023 has intensified in some sectors looking at 2024. And as with many other sectors - the political affects from an election year that even a mild recession could be the final nail in coffin for biden’s attempt at reelection. 2023 was a surprise in some ways and 2024 will likely have its share of surprises. Those who look at the housing market as a sector that leads the economy out of recessions and economic woes are not seeing any significant turnaround in 2024, and perhaps a worsening of the situation.
There are so many factors that can tip the economy into a tailspin currently stacked up that it is hard to except the happy days are here again sloganeering by the regime.
BTW - for some real doom porn on this topic, realize that the US is not isolated from the global economy and that any shock in the world could trigger a cascade effect throwing the entire world into a recession/depression, taking the US with it.
All I can say is I’m reevaluating my supplies and situation in the event of worse case scenarios.
2023 In Review and 2024 Outlook.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
2023 saw the start in a significant decline of the readiness of US forces in all branches. They have been falling for the past several years, but 2023 was almost like falling off a cliff. All services failed and failed bigly to meet recruitment and retention quotas. The general view is that the wokness of the military today is driving that sector of the nation that has traditionally volunteered for service. Combined with that is the evidence that the govt no longer is looking out for the service men and women’s well being. This being borne out by the military reversal on the wuhan jab issue and transgenderism along with CRT being for front instead of training for combat. Add to this those who wear the start saying that promotions should no longer be based merit, but on race and gender issues. And finally, soldiers are once again having to rely on food stamps and poor housing / barracks living conditions.
This has driven the left’s lust to reinstate the draft, a disaster in the Vietnam era. A way to bring equity to the service.
The prolonged Ukraine war, now along with support to Israel, has exposed just how low our stockpiles of critical ammunition and weapons systems have become. Replacement for artillery ammo alone is only at 1/3 the rate it is being consumed. Our munitions have been drawn down so severely that in the event of a war with China we would be in a world of hurt.
In large part due to (deliberate) ineptitude of the regime’s foreign policy, our military finds itself increasingly exposed to low level threats that in the past weren’t tolerated. In many instances making us out to be a paper tiger of sorts. Our military won’t even directly confront Houthi’s - at the orders of the pentagon - again, projecting an aura of weakness dangerous in the climate of the middle east.
2024 is going to be even more hazardous for our military.
- I do not foresee direct involvement in Ukraine.
- There is an increasing possibility of direct conflict with Iran as the Gaza war grows and expands
- There is an increasing possibly of limited conflict with China should they decide to blockade the island in the event the Taiwan elections go against them.
- One wildcard here is military deployment here in the states to provide civil disobedience control in the event of pre-election riots or even federally declared martial law.
- Our military stockpiles will continue to be at dangerously low levels for the next several years until manufacturing can get tooled back up to higher production levels.