Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) called for labor unions, professional associations, progressive forces, and supporters to join a global strike in solidarity with Palestinians every Monday until the end of the Israel-Gaza war.
OBSERVATION - While pro-hamas protests persist, they have come down from their high water marks of a couple weeks ago. Many seem to be smaller and more directed at disruptions of traffic and disturbing holiday activities. Once the holidays are past, having events to disrupt become far fewer, until political rallies hit. This seems to be an effort to expand the protests into a more mainstream realm. However, much of the pro-hamas actions have only ticked most people off, and not gained any substantial support of the people at large but rather as generated resentment.
***
Pro-hamas elements in San Francisco are rallying to the courthouse as the initial defendants arrested in the Bay Bridge closure last month face first hearings. Attempting to swamp the courtroom to disrupt proceedings they were kept outside. Their demands are for all charges to be dropped.
However, with a new DA this is not very likely. Post closure assessment reports that in the midst of the blockage, three organ transplant couriers were trapped, delaying or canceling three surgeries. Not confident at this stage that pro-hamas elements will continue vocal but peaceful protests - but I think the probability is high that they may stage another shutdown in support of the defendants.
Economy-
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers is concerned about a potential 2024 recession and that higher-than-expected inflation will persist next year. (FO)
“There are a variety of problems – declining flows of credit, inverted yield curves, aspects of consumer behavior, rising evidence of credit strains – that raise the possibility that the landing won’t be soft if there is one,” Summers said.
OBSERVATION - Continued mixed reviews concerning the state of the economy in 2024. The biden regime is already on the public opinion ropes for its handling of the economy inspire of their recent PR blitz to try to sell the country that things are good. A clear recession in 2024 will almost be the final nail in biden’s presidency - if the deep state allows an election that is.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
SecDef announces Operation Prosperity Guardian, which brings together multiple countries including the UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, “to jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden”
OBSERVATION - If you are not going to use the force, all the ships in the world are not going to deter anything.
***
Carrier Strike Group 1 (CSG-1) led by the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) is moving west and has arrived in Singapore after operations in the Philippine Sea; this would allow her to arrive in theater near Yemen or Iran if needed within roughly 5-7 Days.
The USS Reagan is still at port in Japan.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Driver who crashed into Biden’s motorcade charged with driving under the influence of alcohol.
***
Americans may have found something they like less than a hypothetical Kamala Harris presidency — four more years of Joe Biden.
A new poll out Monday shows the veep’s favorability rating inching above the commander-in-chief’s for the first time, as reports indicate growing alarm inside the White House about Biden’s prospects in 2024.
The Monmouth University survey showed the 81-year-old Biden receiving just a 34% approval rating — the lowest in the poll’s tracking of his administration and down 20 percentage points from its peak in April 2021 — and a 61% disapproval rating.
Harris fares little better, but her 35% approval rating and 57% disapproval rating are positively glowing marks compared to her boss.
https://nypost.com/2023/12/18/news/harris-tops-biden-favorability-as-dems-panic-over-polls/
Related - Monmouth poll has Biden job rating dropping to all time low since taking office.
34% approve
61% disapprove
OBSERVATION - How much longer before we see the rats jumping ship in mass?
Illegal Immigration –
U.S. border officials on Sunday closed two rail bridges that move freight between Texas and Mexico after detecting a surge in the smuggling of migrants through Mexico by train.
The move by U.S. Customs and Border Protection was the latest in a series of similar closures along the border in order to redeploy enforcement resources elsewhere in response to large numbers of migrants.
The international railway crossing bridges in Eagle Pass and El Paso were closed “in order to redirect personnel to assist the U.S. Border Patrol with taking migrants into custody,” CBP said in a statement.
“After observing a recent resurgence of smuggling organizations moving migrants through Mexico via freight trains, CBP is taking additional actions to surge personnel and address this concerning development, including in partnership with Mexican authorities,” the statement said.
BP agents in Eagle Pass tell me this is by far the worst they have ever seen it there with no end in sight.
CBP has imposed similar temporary closures in recent weeks, shutting the Lukeville port of entry in Arizona, a pedestrian entrance in San Diego, and a vehicle crossing in Eagle Pass.
After the Lukeville closure, Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs on Friday ordered National Guard troops to the border with Mexico, saying the U.S. federal government’s decision had put public safety and commerce at risk.
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2023/12/us-closes-two-rail-bridges-to-mexico-amid-migrant-surge/
***
Texas governor Greg Abbott signed a new law Monday which gives law enforcement officers in the state the power to arrest anyone suspected of entering the country illegally.
OBSERVATION - Interesting work around of fed laws. I expect the DoJ will file a lawsuit to ban it shortly.
China –
China has escalated tensions in the South China Sea by deploying a sonic weapon sparking worries that President Xi Jinping aims to create a crisis during the Christmas period. (AP)
Philippines moving to establish a second base in the Seychelles Islands - a zone disputed by China.
North/South Korea –
North Korea said on Tuesday it had launched a Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Monday as a drill to confirm the war readiness of its nuclear deterrence force in the face of mounting hostility by the United States.
OBSERVATION - This is another launch of its newest and solid fueled rocket, confirming yesterday’s speculation.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 2 of 2 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. Russia was targeting areas in western Ukraine.
Russia shot down Ukraine drones in the Briansk region as well in the neighborhood of Moscow and Kaluga region
Russia continues to press the attacks around Adviivka.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations. Expect russia to keep pressing Adviivka area.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Operations reaching final stages in N Gaza.
- Operations in S Gaza/Khan Younis intensified overnight as IDF forces confront Hamas and affiliated strongholds.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Continued rumors over another ceasefire and hostage release. Hamas reportedly reluctant to release any hostages, holding up progress.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli army forces have reached Palestine Square in the Shejaiya neighborhood of Gaza City. Troops destroyed the Hamas monument there, which celebrated an ATGM attack on an Israeli APC that left 6 soldiers dead, including Oron Shaul.
Observers are noting that IDF operations in N Gaza are close to wrapping up. The central Gaza city not under control by IDF has grown very small. Many of the actions consist of through screening of the area for more tunnel and their destruction. Hamas and affiliated factions are putting ever decreasing resistance to the IDF.
Al-Qassam Brigades claimed the recent rocket attack against Tel Aviv. This is the first attack in days and was basically inconsequential.
Operations in S Gaza continue at a high pace. IDF continues to hammer targets in Khan Younis as they work to isolate remaining Hamas and affiliated strongholds.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Border fight continues with little change as Hezbollah continues to fire mortars and ATGMs along the Lebanon border, with IDF artillery and air strikes in response.
***
IDF spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Conricus told reporters Monday that Hezbollah has fired “more than 1,000 different types of ammunition, rockets, missiles, drones, mortars and others toward Israel” since October 8, the day after the Palestinian Hamas movement led an unprecedented surprise attack against Israel from Gaza.
Conricus warned that “Hezbollah, who as everybody knows is a proxy of Iran, is dangerously dragging Lebanon into an unnecessary war that could have potential devastating consequences for the state of Lebanon and for the people of Lebanon.
“And it is a war that I think neither Lebanon nor Israel deserves to be fighting.”
***
In a joint press conference today with US Secretary of Defense Austin, Israeli Defense Minister Gallant stated that if Hezbollah does not move north of the Litani River (as UN resolution 1701 calls for) through diplomatic efforts, Israel “will not hesitate to act [militarily]”.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces actions through out the West Bank to capture/neutralize Hamas and related terrorists. Skirmishes reported in several locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
British Ministry of Defence - The security situation in the Red Sea is deteriorating.
CVN-69 - the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower - is now less than 20 nautical miles from the Bab-el-Mandeb strait. The carrier has traveled nearly 2,000 nautical miles in less than one week. It is in position to strike Houthi targets in Yemen.
Carrier Strike Group 1 (CSG-1) led by the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) is moving west and has arrived in Singapore after operations in the Philippine Sea; this would allow her to arrive in theater near Yemen or Iran if needed within roughly 5-7 Days.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete. Action now is relatively routine.
Time to fish or cut bait for the US as it amasses an armada to protect Red Sea shipping. Until the US and allies make a substantial strike on Houthi positions in Yemen, they will continue to take pot shots at ships. So far biden has shown no desire to really shut the Houthi down.
Actions by other “Islamic Resistance” forces have tapered off over the past week. They still are conducting attacks, but with increasing intervals between them.
Israel is continuing to lay the groundwork to justify military actions against Hezbollah - most likely following operations in Gaza. This places any major escalation in combat several month out, provided Hezbollah doesn’t conduct a preemptive attack first..
Iran –
Massive explosion overnight at Iran’s aviation and space force headquarters in Tehran.
These headquarters supply missiles and UAVs to regime proxies in the region.
OBSERVATION - Mossad or internal resistance forces stike probably.
Syria -
Jordan launched air strikes inside Syrian territory along its borders against hideouts of drug smugglers.
Misc of Note –
A volcano has erupted on the Reykjanes peninsula of south-west Iceland after weeks of intense earthquake activity. The eruption can be seen from Reykjavik, which is about 42km north-east of Grindavik.
The length of the crack in the volcano is over 4km, with the lava flowing at a rate of around 100 to 200 cubic metres per second, the Met Office said, adding that this was many times more than recent eruptions on the Reykjanes peninsula.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67756413?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA
OBSERVATIONS - Ah, this warms the cackles of this grumpy old geologist’s heart. Spectacular eruption. Scientists are assessing if this eruption is going to impact air travel across the region. Initial observations are no, but being monitored.
And our idiot military brass is off to Israel telling Israelis how to wage a war... (CUT AND RUN - LEAVE ADVANCED WEAPONS FOR THE CHINESE TO REVERSE ENGINEER - THEN HAND OUT WEAPONS LIKE CANDY AND TICK OFF YOUR OWN TAXPAYERS... ETC ETC.)
FYI - In celebration of the darkest day of the year tomorrow (as well as my birthday), I’m not planning on posting, unless an unusual situation arises. I’ll catch up on Friday/Saturday.
Globalism / Great Reset –
2024 globalist events / meeting agendas announced.
- The World Economic Forum has announced the theme of their 54th annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland: Rebuilding Trust. It’s no surprise that the WEF continues their focus on building trust after they have become enemy number one of millions of people around the world since 2020. The WEF says the meeting will “restore collective agency” and reinforce the “principles of transparency, consistency and accountability” among world leaders.
- According to the Summit for the Future website, the summit is a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” to address gaps in global governance. The Summit will take place in September 2024 and will continue the push for nations to “reaffirm existing commitments” to the SDGs and the UN Charter. Member states will be expected to build on the outcomes of the SDG Summit and “breathe new life into the multilateral system” and accomplish the Agenda 2030.
- The WHO’s 194 member nations are slated to meet again in May 2024 to adopt some version of the WHO’s pandemic treaty.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The Colorado Supreme Court ruled Trump violated the insurrectionist clause of the 14th Amendment for his role in January 6 in a 4-3 decision. The court also stayed its decision based on the probability of appeals, which the Trump campaign promised to make.
Legal scholar Jonathan Turley slammed the Colorado Supreme Court for its ruling.
‘Well, this court just handed partisans on both sides the ultimate tool to try to shortcut elections, and it’s very, very dangerous,’ Turley said on Fox News moments after the decision.
‘I mean, this country is a powder keg, and this court is just throwing matches at it. And I think that it’s a real mistake. But I think that they’re wrong on the law,’ Turley added.
The Trump team is obviously expected to appeal to the Supreme Court. But time is of the essence, given the secretary of state has said they are required to certify list of candidates for the GOP primary by Jan. 5.
Colorado GOP announces it will withdraw the party from the primary and convert to a caucus system if Colorado Supreme Court ruling is allowed to stand.
OBSERVATION - Cross post with “Politics” Turley nails it by saying “’I mean, this country is a powder keg, and this court is just throwing matches at it.” This is the first of a half dozen or so democrat based lawsuits seeing Trump’s removal from ballots based on the 14th amendment that has succeeded. This court decision overturned a lower court decision in favor of Trump.
It is highly probable that the USSC will step in and overrule CO - ending the law fare once and for all. If for some reason the USSC fails to step in, then this will definitely ignite anger on the right for unwarranted election interference. Even Smith’s prosecution of Trump for J6 does NOT include insurrection charges.
Right now the country hangs in the balance, and these activist judges in Colorado make control of the USSC even more critical, as their decisions would be in place for decades.
***
Plans for “Marches for Trump” are being developed for locations across the country. Initial understanding that these events will be similar to previous events where supporters come together in cars / boats in a large parade. These events may get a boost in participation given the CO supreme court ruling. They may also server as a target for violent Antifa based counter protests.
***
More than 20 labor unions have endorsed pro-Palestine demonstrations in California, including the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Local 3299, Oakland Education Association, Service Employees Union (SEIU) Local 1021, International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 10.
OBSERVATION - I see this as internal democrat / progressive maneuvering to gain leverage in the pro-israel vs pro-hamas civil war among democrats. Union support of pro-hamas causes, with associated following money (or lack thereof) to candidates would serve as a tool to shift the party from its current majority support of Israel to pro hamas. Union support could also become a resource for allied Antifa/hamas supporters in future protests and riots.
***
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) are preparing for 2020-style civil unrest.
According to a recent training event, officials believe that civil disturbances — such as protests, riots, sit-ins, and other civil unrest — present a “very high” threat to federal facilities in 2024.
OBSERVATION - A victory by either party may well kickoff violent protests. These protests likely would be from elements of the left who are by nature more prone to using violence to obtain their political goals than the right.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Current border situation is so swamped that it is nearly impossible to judge the number of potential terrorists entering the country. As commonly reported, the majority of these illegals are men of military age.
Economy-
The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $381 billion so far into the 2024 fiscal year, which represents a 13% increase from this same time period last year.
The deficit is $44 billion higher than it was at the end of November 2022, according to the latest data released by the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
Scott Hodge, the president of the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit, said the U.S. Treasury reporting a 13% increase in the deficit compared to November 2022 shows the U.S. government continues to go down the wrong path when it comes to fiscal policy.
“It is being driven by federal spending, which is up by $152 billion, a 17% increase compared to the same month in 2022. The monthly deficit would have been worse if decent economic growth hadn’t boosted federal tax collections by $108 billion, or 19%,” Hodge told Just the News.
OBSERVATION - National debt is well into the red zone and forget about cutting it down with future fiscal restraint - just isn’t going to happen. Especially with the drunken spending habits of both sides of congress. IMHO, this is deliberate and is in coordination with the WEF’s overall plans for a global, economic ‘reset’. Burn it down to build it up.
***
(FO) - Stanley Druckenmiller Recession Indicator (SDRI) – the year-over-year performance of stocks of banks, retailers, homebuilders, autos, and small market capitalization companies compared to the S&P 500 – is predicting a recession.
The SDRI predicted the 1990, 2001, and 2008-2009 U.S. recessions. This recession indicator is currently at about the same level as it was in these previous recessions.
OBSERVATION - Continued turmoil regarding the prospects for a recession in 2024. This indicator has a good track record and may well be tapping economic indicators largely ignored by the Treasury dept as well as other economists.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The Heritage Foundation filed a Freedom of Information Act request on July 6, asking Treasury for internal communications containing the terms “recession,” “alternative definition of recession,” and “alternative recession measurements.” (The Daily Signal is The Heritage Foundation’s news outlet.)
The Treasury Department first asked Heritage to narrow the scope of its request, which Heritage did. Yet Treasury failed to hand over the documents, so Heritage filed a lawsuit on Dec. 1, claiming the department violated the Freedom of Information Act.
OBSERVATION - Crosses over into “Economy” as well. Back in 2022, the GDP crossed over into negative territory for three consecutive quarters. At that time a huge spin campaign started to get citizens to ignore that common definition of a recession. Govt numbers playing - especially with ‘adjustments’ months after the headline grabbing announcements is very common. Redefinition of terms as well as cherry picking data serve to obfuscate the real situation. But it is important to citizens who’ve been hammered by bidenomics to know what the real status is.
Biden / Harris Watch –
WH hiding hunter from flight manifests on Marine and Air Force One.
Illegal Immigration –
U.S. border officials encountered the highest number of illegal immigrants at the U.S.-Mexico border on Monday than any day, upending all other records that the Biden administration has set over the past three years.
The Washington Examiner obtained internal U.S. Customs and Border Protection data Tuesday that revealed 14,509 immigrants were encountered by federal law enforcement at the southern border on Monday. The large majority of encounters were of immigrants who walked around the port of entry and crossed into the country illegally, while a small percentage tried to enter at the port of entry but were denied admission.
This breaks the record of 12,000 encounters that was set just two weeks ago.
OBSERVATION - Things are coming unglued even faster than before.
***
Migrant families and their advocates marched outside New York City Hall on Tuesday to demand Mayor Eric Adams end his plan to limit the number of days newly arrived immigrants can remain in city-run shelters.
The late afternoon demonstration of students and parents at City Hall Park was in response to an order Adams issued in October limiting homeless migrants and their children to 60 days in city housing. The Democrat said the move was necessary to relieve a shelter system overwhelmed by asylum-seekers crossing the southern U.S. border.
OBSERVATION - As much as I’d like to say to NY, tough, you asked for it, I see the potential for the collapse of illegal (NOT ‘migrants’) social services in NYC as well as other major metro areas starting a domino effect that could result in unrest and violence by illegals spreading across the country. The overloading of social service systems is deliberate in that it helps forward the WEF’s borderless vision of the world, pushing forward with the global ‘replacement’ efforts to eliminate western culture and standards.
***
Law suits against TX new law making it illegal for individuals to illegally enter the state are in the que and many think TX will lose them. TX is still winning the court battles to prevent the feds from damaging / removing constructed barrier/fences.
North/South Korea –
The United States, Japan, and South Korea announced on Tuesday that they have fully activated a real-time North Korea missile warning system and jointly established a multi-year trilateral exercise plan.
The announcement of the new arrangement follows North Korea’s launches of ballistic missiles on Sunday and Monday through the defense chiefs of the three countries; U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin, Japan Minister of Defense Minoru Kihara, and South Korean Minister of National Defense Shin Wonsik had earlier agreed during the United States-Japan-Republic of Korea Trilateral Ministerial Meeting in November to finalize the two initiatives by the end of 2023.
Japan –
Japan has bought forward the deployment of a new version of its in-service ground-launched variant of the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) Type 12 anti-ship missile, intending to field it in Fiscal Year 2025 instead of the earlier planned deployment date of FY 2026.
Japan Defense Minister Minoru Kihara announced the new deployment schedule on Friday during his regular Friday press conference stating that the “acceleration is a realisation of the sense of urgency that Japan must acquire a practical stand-off defense capability as soon as possible”. He added that the Japan defense ministry was looking at other domestically produced and under development stand-off missiles to field them at an earlier date than scheduled.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 19 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight.
Russian army conducted missile strike at Kropivnintsky overnight
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations, resulting in very little significant combat overnight. Expect russia to keep pressing Adviivka area.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Locally intense fighting continues in N and S Gaza as IDF closes in on Hamas strongholds.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
More ceasefire rumors and alleged negotiations.
***
Israel’s Army Radio reported Tuesday that the manager of the Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza told interrogators that Hamas terrorists had commandeered the hospital and forced staff to do its bidding, believing that the IDF would not strike there.
Israel’s military announced Tuesday that it has taken out Subhi Ferwana, a “Hamas financier involved in transferring tens of millions of dollars to the Hamas terrorist organization’s military wing.”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli army’s 162nd Division gains full control of Hamas stronghold of Jabalia in northern Gaza; hundreds of militants killed, 500 terror suspects captured including Oct. 7 perpetrators; terror tunnels, command centers & rocket production factories destroyed
1,500 tunnel shafts and underground passages have been exposed in Gaza by our troops since the beginning of the war. Most of these have been found beneath schools, hospitals, mosques, UN facilities and civilian institutions.
IDF’s 162nd Division has reportedly gained full control of Hamas stronghold of Jabalia in northern Gaza; hundreds of terrorists killed, 500 terror suspects captured including Oct. 7 perpetrators; terror tunnels, command centers & rocket production factories destroyed.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Border fight continues with little change as Hezbollah continues to fire mortars and ATGMs along the Lebanon border, with IDF artillery and air strikes in response.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces actions through out the West Bank to capture/neutralize Hamas and related terrorists. Skirmishes reported in several locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi leadership have doubled down on their threats to shipping in the Red Sea, promising that they would not stop and, “Whoever seeks to expand the conflict must bear the consequences of those actions.”
The multi-nation naval task force is coming together in the Red Sea region. Houthi missile/drone attacks have ceased - likely temporarily over the past few days.
Reports of the development of a strike plan against Houthi bases and facilities to mitigate their threats to shipping.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Lavrov - The necessity of respecting international legitimacy and establishing a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.
Blinken spoke with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry today to affirm U.S.-Egypt cooperation on shared priorities including the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, increasing aid to Gaza, and regional security.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete. Action now is relatively routine.
The armada forming against the Houthi is growing, and has temporally paused their attacks on shipping, but they’ve vowed to continue. US/allies are coming up with a strike plan to mitigate Houthi attacks and protect shipping. We’ll see just how far the US is willing to go to deal with the Houthi. Any measly counter attacks will not serve to instill confidence in global shipping. Currently, about 10% of all global shipping traffic passes through the Red Sea / Suez canal. Further disruptions in traffic will soon be impacting countries around the globe.
Iraq -
The Iraqi High Electoral Commission released preliminary results for the Iraqi provincial council elections. Shia parties, including those affiliated with Iran, won the largest count of votes in Baghdad and most of Iraq’s southern provinces.
OBSERVATION - Continued bad news for Iraq’s sunni community and indication of further shadow dominance of Iraq by Iran.
Happy Birthday early
Wishing you an early Happy Birthday!
Thanks. I hope your birthday is wonderful.
“OBSERVATION - As much as I’d like to say to NY, tough, you asked for it, I see the potential for the collapse of illegal (NOT ‘migrants’) social services in NYC as well as other major metro areas starting a domino effect that could result in unrest and violence by illegals spreading across the country. The overloading of social service systems is deliberate in that it helps forward the WEF’s borderless vision of the world, pushing forward with the global ‘replacement’ efforts to eliminate western culture and standards.”
How will the Collapse help? Violence by illegals happens, then our military or UN step in with a coup?
HAPPY BIRTHDAY tomorrow!
Hope your birth day is wonderful!
Violence would be justification for martial law or crackdown on any who stand up to the illegals. Prime examples are current Britain and Ireland.
Thanks, what I thought. Even bring in the UN.
we have so many military age illegals here now now from countries that hate us, and some Dems want them to join out military.
Happy Birthday! As your present, Here’s Tokyo! Stomp on!
thanks for the birthday wishes, it was a dark day when I was born.
No regular TM post - used my day off to continue to work through the year in review. Today being CW2/Domestic violence.
2023 In Review and 2024 Outlook.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
There are many other factors that I don’t cover here, but these are the biggies IMHO.
Keep in mind, the goal of the WEF et al is to divide the US, to prevent resistance to their desired conquest of the world.
The polls all indicate a growing view that there will be some sort of a civil break up between Red and Blue in the near future. Democrats/ leftists also poll even stronger towards the willingness to use violence to obtain their goals. Thus the chasm between Red and Blue has grown substantially over the course of 2023.
This category has also morphed significantly over the past year. Originally documenting the Antifa/BLM insurrections, it has grown to include the deliberate targeting of conservatives by the deep state. In the forefront is the rapidly development of data bases upon which the feds may initially try to arrest/detain if and when things go sideways. The the CW2 scenario has grown to one of govt vs civilians.
The Antifa crowd had a very slow first part of the year — no real big events to stir up their base to turn out on a nationwide basis. Then the blowback from the trans movement by parents and other groups stimulated the formation of a new element- Transfifa, trans sex supporters that utilize violent Antifa developed tactics. Transtifa attacks were prevalent over most of the summer, assaulting anti-grooming speakers and groups. So brash were these attacks, it caused a split in the LGBT community with the onset of Gays against Groomers speaking out against the trans agenda.
The Gaza war created another new outlet for leftist violence. The pro-hamas movements, largely centered on US colleges and universities, has suggested that a tipping point has been reached with the massive influx of moslems into the country, combined with indoctrination and wimpy civilian / govts unwilling to go against this new entitled class - radical moslems. Going into this flow was the radical LGBT elements- a strange mix given that under full moslem shariah law they would be tossed off roofs, they are seemingly tolerating them for numbers turnout and propagandizing the hamas cause. And of course Antifa showing up for anything anti-govt. Hitting also during the holiday season, they’ve gotten more press than normal. A disturbing trend is increasing highway blockages. These protests have been largely peaceful, absent the more violent Antifa/BLM road blocks of 2020.
This newly violent anti-Israeli democrat left has also created a rift in the democrat party in general. Traditional democrats generally support Israel. The Marxist elements on the left are now full on anti-Israel and the infighting is increasing.
Another growing factor is the totally uncontrolled flood of illegals entering the country . Taking from the Illegal discussion a little, these illegals notably tend to be military aged males. This flood is deliberate - representing the once derided concept that these massive immigrations were designed to corrupt and tear down the existing society - Europe has been succumbing to a similar uncontrolled migration of middle easterners and N Africans as well.
All this is causing resentment by the pre-existing dependency class - predominantly blacks in urban, blue metro areas. Friction between them and the illegals is growing. But friction is growing against biden and Chicago blacks have warned of massive demonstrations during the democratic nation convention this next year. The other aspect of such a flood of illegals are terror / military cells from the many anti-US countries out there. These covered more when I get to Terrorism.
Media and other mouthpieces have furthered the narrative of racism and violence is acceptable towards whites. This brings up the specter of brewing race war. Massive looting of stores is being represented as ‘reparations’ and crime directed at whites.
One last item - the massive democrat efforts to stop the Trump candidacy by legal or ‘other’ means. Trump could well be the third rail of the political period. Right now as legal persecutions increase, so Trump’s support appears to be solidifying, rather than melting. Huge errors are being made by these prosecutors and judges and any rough handling of Trump could set off repercussions by the right.
Lawfare - a component of the “Political” category to be looked as later is another foreshock of potential violent responses between the right and left. The recent Colorado Supreme Court decision to have Trump removed from the ballot has ratcheted tensions for the election year a whole order of magnitude. Even more terrifying is the potential response on any assassination attempt or success. Many mouthpieces of the left have been calling for assignations and their demonizing of Trump lays the foundation for some one to actually try to follow through with those calls.
One potential outcome that is growing is red states using the precedent set by Colorado by removing biden from their ballots - perhaps by invoking the 25th amendment argument. It would divide this nation with one side holding one president and the other holding another. An interesting and scary potential outcome - one which could trigger a hot civil war as well.
Finally, the whole corruption of the voting system by democrats is pushing the potential that neither side will accept the results of the election. That rejection has a strong potential of moving the needle closer to a very real separation of the country and a hot CW2.
Corruption of the legal system, corruption of the voting system, corruption of free speech is leaving things rushing to what JFK warned about over 60 years ago -
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.” [ Remarks on the first anniversary of the Alliance for Progress, 13 March 1962]”
What is the outlook for 2024?
VERY PERILOUS TIMES. The election year of 2020 was tumultuous, 2024 could potentially be far worse.. My biggest fears consist of
1 Assassination attempts on Trump and others on the right. I think components of the left are desperate enough to try. If Trump gets hit, it is likely ‘go’ time.
2 Expansion of Antifa style protests/riots shifting gears from hamas support to attacking political candidates / rallies, to include burning down the cities, violent road blockades and other violence. This will shift from pro-hamas protests as the war continues and the enthusiasm shifted more towards internal politics. A repeat of 2020 is almost inevitable.
3 Violence at the Democrat national convention - is a certain. Will BLM antagonists use this event to cause problems against other democrat facilities and run cities? See also #2 above.
4 Some sort of false flag event that allow the govt to ‘justify’ a crackdown on the right. Even to the point of establishment of martial law, cancelation of the election and suspension of rights.
5 Apparent illegalities in the vote that some how the least popular president of all times manages to win against Trump. The stolen election nearly tore the country apart. This time around it could get ugly.
6 Will any of the 5 above result in a “divorce” with red vs blue separating either ‘peacefully’ or violently .
7 Outbreak of violence by illegals, both unorganized and organized. By organized I’m looking at deliberate terror teams (predominantly islamic or Chinese) launching broad riots or targeted terror attack. This would escalate very quickly to the potential of civilian defense elements in the face of probable govt inaction.
What do I see a CW2 break up looking like? Based on trends I’ve been monitoring i think it breaks out like this. First and foremost - a democrat controlled fed govt will be hostile to any conservative separation and could launch arrests of potential resistance leadership, martial law and other crack downs that could precipitate shooting scenarios.
Strong red or blue states will likely try to separate as a state, providing a govt structure already in place. I think that separation will still be strongly influenced by the Red vs Blue county breakout. For instance, red CA,OR and WA will not side with the blue controls in the state capitols. So on a broad measure, the dark blue metro areas along both coasts vs red rural areas is the break out I see. So a CW1 scenario of state vs state is less likely due to heterogeneity of the populations versus a more homogeneous culture during the civil war.
Many think the CW2 will develop into something similar to the Spanish civil war, with liberal cities versus conservative rural areas. Cities would have an initial population advantage but are heavily resource dependent. Rural areas more self sufficient, but with better armed/trained, though fewer civilians. A lot of scenarios run outward from this. The worst case is rural areas laying siege to cities, the fed forces trying to maintain supply lines to the cities as well as trying to keep their supply lines open and keep the troops inline.
CW2 in 2024? With all the potential ruptures above, 2024 is fast becoming the most dangerous year in our history. Prepare accordingly.
Since the army is WOKE and has the weapons, I'm assuming to 'quell' the rebellion, the left will nuke Florida's largest cities.
Godzilla wrote:
“...Strong red or blue states will likely try to separate as a state, providing a govt structure already in place. ...”
There have been enough signatures gathered by the Texas Nationalist Movement, to put a ‘Texit’ proposition on the March ballot.
Far more woke than in the past. There will be a percentage that will not follow illegal orders as well as national guard too. Needless to say if this scenario goes down it will be ugly.
There was rumblings a few years of a loose confederation of red states from TX north to Montana with a willingness to band together - possible to restart that.
Hope yours was happy. Mine is today. Guess I needed to be sure the light was coming back. 🙂
Yep, it was. On the up side now.
Globalism / Great Reset –
On December 5, the World Economic Forum (WEF) and its partner organizations released a report claiming that one of the biggest threats to the deep state’s power fortress is the unmitigated spread of “misinformation” online.
Dubbed “Cybersecurity Futures 2030: New Foundations,” the report, which is based on a study, puts forth the notion that one of the biggest cybersecurity concerns for the establishment is free speech that threatens the existing world order.
“This introduces a novel perspective on the significance of locating and quashing fabricated information, cynically tagged as ‘mis’- or ‘dis-information’ held in the cybersecurity domain.”
https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Cybersecurity_Futures_2030_New_Foundations_2023.pdf
https://thelibertydaily.com/wef-says-spread-misinformation-online-is-cybersecurity-issue/
OBSERVATION - Thought control and censorship - key Orwellian concepts being pushed by the WEF and implemented by its assets in govts and businesses around the globe, incrementally. Saw this in full bloom during the wuhan plandemic. WEF has used that experience to craft even sharper tools so silence opposing views, now and in the future.
Raising it to the definitionally redefined ‘cybersecurity’ realm brings it into direct collision course with global free speech - where the real fight is going beyond social media to independent web sites and email lists.
***
According to a new white paper published by the WEF in partnership with global management consulting firm McKinsey & Company on Wednesday, Dec. 13. The paper, titled “The Role of Public-Private-Philanthropic Partnerships in Driving Climate and Nature Transitions,” stressed that the world needs to spend up to $3.5 trillion on additional climate-focused investments each year “to reach net zero and restore nature” by the United Nations’ end-date of 2050. This also represents around half of global corporate profits, a quarter of world tax revenue and approximately seven percent of household consumer spending.
This also does not include the $1 trillion in additional spending the WEF estimates the world needs to divert from high-emission to low-carbon assets.
OBSERVATION - Positioning themselves to demand $$ from the eventual slave states of the world. This is on top of $$$ necessary to maintain countries currently.
***
Speaking of money -
According to projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) global government debt will hit $97.1 trillion in 2023. That represents a 40% increase since 2019.
By 2028, the IMF projects that global public debt will exceed 100% of global GDP. The only other time global debt-to-GDP was that high was at the height of the pandemic lockdowns.
Americans like to brag about being number one. Well, when it comes to debt, they’re right.
The US national debt makes up 32.4% of the total global government debt.
According to the IMF, America’s debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 123.3%.
https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/GGXWDG_NGDP@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
OBSERVATION - To “reset’ something, it has to be broken first, and govt debt explosion is one way to break the system to permit a global ‘reset’.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Robert F. Kennedy warned the nation’s voters that they should be extremely concerned about the future of the US.
“Every American should be troubled by the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision to remove President Trump from the ballot. The court has deprived him of a consequential right without having been convicted of a crime. This was done without an evidentiary hearing in which he is given the basic right of confronting his accusers,” he posted to X. “If Trump is kept out of office through judicial fiat rather than being defeated in a fair election, his supporters will never accept the result,” he added. “This country will become ungovernable. It’s time to trust the voters. It is up to the people to decide who the best candidate is. Not the courts. The people. That’s Democracy 101.”
RELATED- The states of California and Maine are now exploring options to keep former President Trump off their respective state ballots in the wake of Colorado’s ruling.
OBSERVATION - Double quote -“This country will become ungovernable.” The CO Supreme Court is setting the stage for a Civil War by this action.
***
Growing numbers of announced pro-hamas protests/rallies scheduled for this weekend. High probability of disruptions targeting major highways and Christmas related events.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Customs and Border Protection agents have already caught 31 illegals who are on the terror watchlist, according to CBP data, a number that is on pace to make fiscal year 2024 the highest ever.
Fiscal Year 2023 set a record of 172 illegals caught who were on the terror watchlist. The new fiscal year began Oct. 1. CBP collared 98 on the terror list in FY 2022. The current pace of FY24 is at 186.
OBSERVATION - And these are just the ones that were caught.
RELATED - A representative from the TSA told Fox News:
For non-citizens and non-U.S. nationals who do not otherwise have acceptable forms of ID for presentation at security checkpoints, TSA may also accept certain DHS-issued forms, including ICE Form I-200 (Warrant for Arrest of an Alien)...All passengers whose identity is verified through alternate procedures receive additional screening before being allowed into the secure area of the airport.
UnFREEKING believable folks.
Economy-
New home sales fell in the South by the most, followed by the West. The Northeast and Midwest saw increased sales. New home sales crashed 12.2% MoM - the biggest MoM drop since April 2022.
The median new home priced jumped to $434.7k from $414.9k.
The median existing home price dropped to lowest since April while median new home price jumped to highest since August (Source: Bloomberg)
OBSERVATION - Repeating myself, but the housing market is a key indicator of the health of the economy. Not looking healthy lately.
***
Shipping industry insiders expressed uncertainty about the effectiveness of the Biden administration’s newly unveiled multinational initiative, Operation Prosperity Guardian, aimed at safeguarding Red Sea shipping from potential terrorist attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen.
Many cargo operations remain hesitant to resume activities in the Red Sea. Some choose alternative routes, such as circumventing the Cape of Good Hope. Such diversions result in a 10-day sailing extension and significant additional costs for shipments.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/shipping-firms-biden-administration-red-sea/2023/12/21/id/1146844/
It is also being reported that logistics managers are quoting ocean freight rates of $10,000 per 40-foot container from Shanghai to the U.K. Last week, rates were $1,900 for a 20-foot container, to $2,400 for a 40-foot container.
OBSERVATION - These prices will hit the consumers in the next few months as they work through the system.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Defense Cooperation Agreement signed Monday between Washington and Helsinki will give the American forces access to 15 installations — five in the High North near Russia — and permission to store equipment and weapons on Finnish soil.
The bilateral agreement with the United State “just makes it easier” to store agreed upon equipment, allow for pre-positioning at four air bases, one naval base and land force installations and the movement of troops, she said. While it does cover use of large training areas in the High North, the pact does not cover nuclear weapons, nor does it call for permanent American bases in Finland.
***
Almost as soon as it was announced, the coalition for “Prosperity Guardian” has started to spin apart.
France, Spain, and Italy have all announced their refusal to accept U.S. Command Structure for the Operation, and they will only conduct further Maritime Operations under the Command of NATO and/or the European Union and not the United States.
US Navy says they don’t have enough warships to start Operation Prosperity Garden. US built 24 littoral combat ships but are not deploying them because the Navy believes they are unable to defend themselves against Houthi attacks, let alone defend cargo vessels.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
Summary: a study of humans suffering from Long Covid analyzed their cellular DNA. The authors unexpectedly found genes uniquely specific to the Pfizer COVID vaccine in human blood cells. This finding proves that mRNA COVID vaccines permanently integrate into the DNA of some COVID-vaccinated people.
https://www.europeanreview.org/article/34685
OBSERVATION - This concern, of the mRNA permanently affecting the DNA of our bodies was raised very early in the season of the jab. It was, of course, swatted down by our ‘betters’ who ‘knew the science’. This study strongly suggests that so called ‘long covid’ could be linked to this function.
***
Researchers have developed an airborne mRNA vaccine offering a vehicle by which to rapidly vaccinate the masses without their knowledge or consent.
A team from Yale University has developed a new airborne method for delivering mRNA right to your lungs. The method has also been used to vaccinate mice intranasally, “opening the door for human testing in the near future.”
While scientists may celebrate this invention as a convenient method to vaccinate large populations, skeptics raise obvious concerns about the potential misuse of an airborne vaccine, including the possibility of covert bioenhancements a concept that has previously been suggested in academic literature.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30157295/
OBSERVATION - Involuntary inoculation - a massive human rights assault - except that human rights don’t matter to these mad men. You better believe, just as the Pfizer/Moderna vaccine was jacked to damage the population - this will follow the same path.
POLITICAL FRONT –
A “friend of the court” brief by onetime AG Edwin Meese and constitutional scholars contends that lower federal courts should dismiss all of Jack Smith’s prosecutions — including all pending charges against Trump, The reason? Jack Smith is holding a position that was never created by Congress, the Meese brief argues.
OBSERVATION - Smith’s selection and method of prosecution have been highly irregular and his recent appeals to the USSC an effort to bypass any potential appeals. Observers are noting an increasing desperation from Smith to get the job done prior to the elections - suggesting that his case is falling apart with recent revelation on J6 and the classified docs issues.
***
Congressional Democrats and media outlets are pressuring Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas to recuse himself from any decision on former President Trump’s disqualification from the Colorado primary ballot or immunity from prosecution.
Illegal Immigration –
KJP: “What we’re seeing here at the border...it’s not unusual…”
***
ICE is reportedly scheduling appointments for asylum seekers into 2031. Eight years from now.
OBSERVATION - Unbelievable. 8 years for these illegals to burrow into our society, suck resources off the teat of govt and contribute virtually nothing to society except crime and grift.
***
The Biden White House is sending Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas to engage Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) in talks over border security.
***
See “Terrorism” above for record numbers of intercepted illegals that are on the terror database list.
China –
During a recent summit in San Francisco, Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly conveyed a firm message to President Joe Biden, stating that Beijing intends to reunify Taiwan with mainland China, though the timeline for this action remains undecided. Xi, at last year’s Chinese Communist Party Congress, warned of a military attack on Taiwan if it declares independence with foreign support. He emphasized that this threat targets only external interference and a minority of separatists advocating for Taiwanese independence.
OBSERVATION - China knows we are at our weakest levels in decades - possibly even since the Vietnam War. Short of a global war, the US lacks the resources and will to military confront China in a decisive manner.
Japan –
Japan’s Cabinet on Friday approve a record 7.95 trillion yen or $55.9 billion defense budget for Fiscal Year 2024, which begins on April 1 next year. The amount represents a 16.5 percent increase from FY2023’s budget of 6.8 trillion yen or $47.7 billon with the budget for each fiscal year to increase until it reaches 8.9 trillion yen or $62.5 billion in FY2027 thus making each fiscal year defence budget until 2027 continuously the highest ever recorded.
https://news.usni.org/2023/12/22/japanese-cabinet-approves-largest-ever-defense-budget
OBSERVATION - Japan is facing threats primarily from China as well as N Korea and has to get caught up militarily . It can no longer rely on the US for many of its regional defense needs.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
Russia is threatening to bomb NATO air bases if F-16s given to Ukraine take off from there - The EurAsian Times
Russia has already warned that the use of NATO aircraft from Europe.
European / NATO actions would turn the countries hosting the aircraft into “legitimate targets” by Russia
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action.
Yesterday, Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 of 28 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. Drone hit an infrastructure in Mykolaiv region.
Overnight, 7 Shahed drones were shot down over Odesa region
What is even more remarkable is that yesterday Ukraine took down 3 (THREE) Su-34 aircraft in the S Ukraine region. These fighter-bombers have been a bane lately to Ukraine forces, dropping guided ‘gilding bombs’ at targets primarily in the Kherson region, though showing up on other fronts as well. Ukraine may have quickly deployed some Patriot assets into the region and surprised the Russians.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations, resulting in very little significant combat overnight.
Russia’s air force is receiving a Black Sea fleet wake up call. Earlier last week, Ukraine drones hit an airbase, damaging / destroying several other SU-34s as well. Once able to lob rocket/glide bombs safely outside Ukraine’s formerly shorter ranged air defense assets, the take down now suggests that most of Crimea is hostile to Russian fighter/bombers. With the loss of its artillery advantage, Russia switched to aircraft, developing tactics to avoid being shot down. Those tactics now have to be revised. In this specific instance, these jets were supporting Russian defenses against the Ukrainian bridgehead of the Dniper River - and one desperately needed by Russian ground forces.
Ukraine is also on the verge of finally getting F-16s for its forces to use. This could make the air even more hostile to Russia and provide needed support to Ukrainian ground forces. Hopefully Ukraine learned from its ground offensive to develop its own tactics and not rely on Western tactics. They have become good at finding the weak spots in Russia’s defenses and exploiting them. These F-16s could well cause a lot of problems. Key too is the plans for Ukraine to resume offensive operations - now with F-16 cover - could be a game changer.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel warning those living in Central Gaza to move to designated safe areas in S Gaza as war effort moves out of N Gaza.
- Hamas says no talks on a hostage deal until there’s a ceasefire
——— GENERAL ——————————-
According to Israeli media, as part of any to release Israeli hostages, Hamas wants Israel to release three very high profile Palestinian prisoners: Marwan Barghouti, a popular Fatah leader who has been imprisoned in Israel for attacks against Israelis during the Second Intifada. He is predicted to win against any other Palestinian leaders, if elections were held. - Abdullah Barghouti a member of the Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigades who is also a relative of Marwan Barghouti, - Ahmed Saadat the Secretary-General of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine,
A US-Israeli dual citizen taken into captivity by Hamas during the October 7 terrorist attacks has become the first American hostage to die, a group representing hostages’ families said on Friday.
Gadi Haggai, 73, who also held Israeli citizenship, had not been seen since the brutal attack that claimed the lives of over 1,200 people, when he was taken with his wife Judi on a morning walk around the kibbutz.
Hamas released a video on Thursday of three hostages killed in Hamas captivity and who had their bodies recovered by the IDF from the Gaza Strip last week.
In the video, the three hostages – Elia Toledano, Nik Beizer, and Ron Sherman, are seen holding up pieces of paper with their names and personal information.
In a statement posted alongside the video, Hamas claimed that “they tried to keep them alive – but Netanyahu insisted on killing them.”
The video then adds visual effects of shots and animated blood. They are shown in captivity smiling and speaking to each other.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
The Israeli army has begun to call on residents of central Gaza’s Bureij to evacuate south, and head for shelters in Deir al-Balah, as the ground offensive expands.
Hamas and affiliated forces are resisting Israeli movement southward into Central Gaza and are facing intense air and artillery bombardment.
The Israeli army announced that it has established full “operational control” over Gaza City’s Shejaiya neighborhood, which saw some of the fiercest fighting during the ground offensive against Hamas
IDF blew up the main bunker complex in the middle of Gaza City yesterday. The explosion was spectacular and also displayed the extent of the system which connected above ground homes/facilities with their underground equivalents.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Border fight continues with little change as Hezbollah continues to fire mortars and ATGMs along the Lebanon border, with IDF artillery and air strikes in response.
IAF is increasing their targeting of other Hezbollah assets in S Lebanon as part of battlefield preparation for what appears to be an eventually Israeli attack to clear out Hezbollah from the border areas. Logistics, command and control, rocket firing sites and troop concentrations all under increasing pressure by the IAF.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Wednesday, four rockets were fired from Syria at the Golan Heights, setting off sirens in Mas’ade and Ein Quiniyye. The IDF says it shelled the source of the fire and targeted a Syrian Army position.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces actions through out the West Bank to capture/neutralize Hamas and related terrorists. Skirmishes reported in several locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Iran is providing real-time intelligence to Yemen’s Houthis that the jihadists are using target ships passing through the Red Sea, according to a report published on Friday in The Wall Street Journal.
NOTE - Iran has one of their coveted ‘command’ ships in the area, likely the source for real time data.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Allied shipping defense under Operation Prosperity Garden is hitting the rocks - See “Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments” above.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete. Action now is relatively routine.
Search and destroy operations moving into Central Gaza. Hamas and affiliated forces are running out of maneuver space. They are reports to be putting up a fight, but are vastly out gunned and out maneuvered.
The whole operation to make shipping safe through the Red Sea is turning into what we call here in the Redoubt a “goat rope” All these senior officers / generals who were promoted thru diversity and loyalty to the regime rather than merit are showing that they are incapable of organizing / equipping action against a minor terror group. Allies are noting this, plus have their noses out of joint over biden’s support for Israel, to send a message back to us. We have become - in just 3 years - incompetent in running this kind of operation. Combined with the stack of air assets in the region - and those strategic air bombers available, combined with naval air, should leave massive, smoking craters on tactical and strategic sites of Houthi forces.
Continued calls for ceasefire are falling of deaf Israeli ears, and rightfully so. The only way the Hamas threat is to be eliminated is through their total destruction.
Venezuela - Increasing potential for war
Tensions are decreasing as putin is urging Venezuela to seek peaceful resolution and UK pledges support to Guyana. Maduro is also planning to hold elections in Essequibo so residents can vote to break away from Guyana and join Venezuela. Just how he will accomplish that while still under the jurisdiction of Guyana is beyond me.
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