CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) called for labor unions, professional associations, progressive forces, and supporters to join a global strike in solidarity with Palestinians every Monday until the end of the Israel-Gaza war.
OBSERVATION - While pro-hamas protests persist, they have come down from their high water marks of a couple weeks ago. Many seem to be smaller and more directed at disruptions of traffic and disturbing holiday activities. Once the holidays are past, having events to disrupt become far fewer, until political rallies hit. This seems to be an effort to expand the protests into a more mainstream realm. However, much of the pro-hamas actions have only ticked most people off, and not gained any substantial support of the people at large but rather as generated resentment.
***
Pro-hamas elements in San Francisco are rallying to the courthouse as the initial defendants arrested in the Bay Bridge closure last month face first hearings. Attempting to swamp the courtroom to disrupt proceedings they were kept outside. Their demands are for all charges to be dropped.
However, with a new DA this is not very likely. Post closure assessment reports that in the midst of the blockage, three organ transplant couriers were trapped, delaying or canceling three surgeries. Not confident at this stage that pro-hamas elements will continue vocal but peaceful protests - but I think the probability is high that they may stage another shutdown in support of the defendants.
Economy-
Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers is concerned about a potential 2024 recession and that higher-than-expected inflation will persist next year. (FO)
“There are a variety of problems – declining flows of credit, inverted yield curves, aspects of consumer behavior, rising evidence of credit strains – that raise the possibility that the landing won’t be soft if there is one,” Summers said.
OBSERVATION - Continued mixed reviews concerning the state of the economy in 2024. The biden regime is already on the public opinion ropes for its handling of the economy inspire of their recent PR blitz to try to sell the country that things are good. A clear recession in 2024 will almost be the final nail in biden’s presidency - if the deep state allows an election that is.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
SecDef announces Operation Prosperity Guardian, which brings together multiple countries including the UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain, “to jointly address security challenges in the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden”
OBSERVATION - If you are not going to use the force, all the ships in the world are not going to deter anything.
***
Carrier Strike Group 1 (CSG-1) led by the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) is moving west and has arrived in Singapore after operations in the Philippine Sea; this would allow her to arrive in theater near Yemen or Iran if needed within roughly 5-7 Days.
The USS Reagan is still at port in Japan.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Driver who crashed into Biden’s motorcade charged with driving under the influence of alcohol.
***
Americans may have found something they like less than a hypothetical Kamala Harris presidency — four more years of Joe Biden.
A new poll out Monday shows the veep’s favorability rating inching above the commander-in-chief’s for the first time, as reports indicate growing alarm inside the White House about Biden’s prospects in 2024.
The Monmouth University survey showed the 81-year-old Biden receiving just a 34% approval rating — the lowest in the poll’s tracking of his administration and down 20 percentage points from its peak in April 2021 — and a 61% disapproval rating.
Harris fares little better, but her 35% approval rating and 57% disapproval rating are positively glowing marks compared to her boss.
https://nypost.com/2023/12/18/news/harris-tops-biden-favorability-as-dems-panic-over-polls/
Related - Monmouth poll has Biden job rating dropping to all time low since taking office.
34% approve
61% disapprove
OBSERVATION - How much longer before we see the rats jumping ship in mass?
Illegal Immigration –
U.S. border officials on Sunday closed two rail bridges that move freight between Texas and Mexico after detecting a surge in the smuggling of migrants through Mexico by train.
The move by U.S. Customs and Border Protection was the latest in a series of similar closures along the border in order to redeploy enforcement resources elsewhere in response to large numbers of migrants.
The international railway crossing bridges in Eagle Pass and El Paso were closed “in order to redirect personnel to assist the U.S. Border Patrol with taking migrants into custody,” CBP said in a statement.
“After observing a recent resurgence of smuggling organizations moving migrants through Mexico via freight trains, CBP is taking additional actions to surge personnel and address this concerning development, including in partnership with Mexican authorities,” the statement said.
BP agents in Eagle Pass tell me this is by far the worst they have ever seen it there with no end in sight.
CBP has imposed similar temporary closures in recent weeks, shutting the Lukeville port of entry in Arizona, a pedestrian entrance in San Diego, and a vehicle crossing in Eagle Pass.
After the Lukeville closure, Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs on Friday ordered National Guard troops to the border with Mexico, saying the U.S. federal government’s decision had put public safety and commerce at risk.
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2023/12/us-closes-two-rail-bridges-to-mexico-amid-migrant-surge/
***
Texas governor Greg Abbott signed a new law Monday which gives law enforcement officers in the state the power to arrest anyone suspected of entering the country illegally.
OBSERVATION - Interesting work around of fed laws. I expect the DoJ will file a lawsuit to ban it shortly.
China –
China has escalated tensions in the South China Sea by deploying a sonic weapon sparking worries that President Xi Jinping aims to create a crisis during the Christmas period. (AP)
Philippines moving to establish a second base in the Seychelles Islands - a zone disputed by China.
North/South Korea –
North Korea said on Tuesday it had launched a Hwasong-18 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Monday as a drill to confirm the war readiness of its nuclear deterrence force in the face of mounting hostility by the United States.
OBSERVATION - This is another launch of its newest and solid fueled rocket, confirming yesterday’s speculation.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 2 of 2 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight. Russia was targeting areas in western Ukraine.
Russia shot down Ukraine drones in the Briansk region as well in the neighborhood of Moscow and Kaluga region
Russia continues to press the attacks around Adviivka.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations. Expect russia to keep pressing Adviivka area.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Operations reaching final stages in N Gaza.
- Operations in S Gaza/Khan Younis intensified overnight as IDF forces confront Hamas and affiliated strongholds.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Continued rumors over another ceasefire and hostage release. Hamas reportedly reluctant to release any hostages, holding up progress.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli army forces have reached Palestine Square in the Shejaiya neighborhood of Gaza City. Troops destroyed the Hamas monument there, which celebrated an ATGM attack on an Israeli APC that left 6 soldiers dead, including Oron Shaul.
Observers are noting that IDF operations in N Gaza are close to wrapping up. The central Gaza city not under control by IDF has grown very small. Many of the actions consist of through screening of the area for more tunnel and their destruction. Hamas and affiliated factions are putting ever decreasing resistance to the IDF.
Al-Qassam Brigades claimed the recent rocket attack against Tel Aviv. This is the first attack in days and was basically inconsequential.
Operations in S Gaza continue at a high pace. IDF continues to hammer targets in Khan Younis as they work to isolate remaining Hamas and affiliated strongholds.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Border fight continues with little change as Hezbollah continues to fire mortars and ATGMs along the Lebanon border, with IDF artillery and air strikes in response.
***
IDF spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Conricus told reporters Monday that Hezbollah has fired “more than 1,000 different types of ammunition, rockets, missiles, drones, mortars and others toward Israel” since October 8, the day after the Palestinian Hamas movement led an unprecedented surprise attack against Israel from Gaza.
Conricus warned that “Hezbollah, who as everybody knows is a proxy of Iran, is dangerously dragging Lebanon into an unnecessary war that could have potential devastating consequences for the state of Lebanon and for the people of Lebanon.
“And it is a war that I think neither Lebanon nor Israel deserves to be fighting.”
***
In a joint press conference today with US Secretary of Defense Austin, Israeli Defense Minister Gallant stated that if Hezbollah does not move north of the Litani River (as UN resolution 1701 calls for) through diplomatic efforts, Israel “will not hesitate to act [militarily]”.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces actions through out the West Bank to capture/neutralize Hamas and related terrorists. Skirmishes reported in several locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
British Ministry of Defence - The security situation in the Red Sea is deteriorating.
CVN-69 - the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower - is now less than 20 nautical miles from the Bab-el-Mandeb strait. The carrier has traveled nearly 2,000 nautical miles in less than one week. It is in position to strike Houthi targets in Yemen.
Carrier Strike Group 1 (CSG-1) led by the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) is moving west and has arrived in Singapore after operations in the Philippine Sea; this would allow her to arrive in theater near Yemen or Iran if needed within roughly 5-7 Days.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete. Action now is relatively routine.
Time to fish or cut bait for the US as it amasses an armada to protect Red Sea shipping. Until the US and allies make a substantial strike on Houthi positions in Yemen, they will continue to take pot shots at ships. So far biden has shown no desire to really shut the Houthi down.
Actions by other “Islamic Resistance” forces have tapered off over the past week. They still are conducting attacks, but with increasing intervals between them.
Israel is continuing to lay the groundwork to justify military actions against Hezbollah - most likely following operations in Gaza. This places any major escalation in combat several month out, provided Hezbollah doesn’t conduct a preemptive attack first..
Iran –
Massive explosion overnight at Iran’s aviation and space force headquarters in Tehran.
These headquarters supply missiles and UAVs to regime proxies in the region.
OBSERVATION - Mossad or internal resistance forces stike probably.
Syria -
Jordan launched air strikes inside Syrian territory along its borders against hideouts of drug smugglers.
Misc of Note –
A volcano has erupted on the Reykjanes peninsula of south-west Iceland after weeks of intense earthquake activity. The eruption can be seen from Reykjavik, which is about 42km north-east of Grindavik.
The length of the crack in the volcano is over 4km, with the lava flowing at a rate of around 100 to 200 cubic metres per second, the Met Office said, adding that this was many times more than recent eruptions on the Reykjanes peninsula.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67756413?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA
OBSERVATIONS - Ah, this warms the cackles of this grumpy old geologist’s heart. Spectacular eruption. Scientists are assessing if this eruption is going to impact air travel across the region. Initial observations are no, but being monitored.
And our idiot military brass is off to Israel telling Israelis how to wage a war... (CUT AND RUN - LEAVE ADVANCED WEAPONS FOR THE CHINESE TO REVERSE ENGINEER - THEN HAND OUT WEAPONS LIKE CANDY AND TICK OFF YOUR OWN TAXPAYERS... ETC ETC.)
FYI - In celebration of the darkest day of the year tomorrow (as well as my birthday), I’m not planning on posting, unless an unusual situation arises. I’ll catch up on Friday/Saturday.
Globalism / Great Reset –
2024 globalist events / meeting agendas announced.
- The World Economic Forum has announced the theme of their 54th annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland: Rebuilding Trust. It’s no surprise that the WEF continues their focus on building trust after they have become enemy number one of millions of people around the world since 2020. The WEF says the meeting will “restore collective agency” and reinforce the “principles of transparency, consistency and accountability” among world leaders.
- According to the Summit for the Future website, the summit is a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” to address gaps in global governance. The Summit will take place in September 2024 and will continue the push for nations to “reaffirm existing commitments” to the SDGs and the UN Charter. Member states will be expected to build on the outcomes of the SDG Summit and “breathe new life into the multilateral system” and accomplish the Agenda 2030.
- The WHO’s 194 member nations are slated to meet again in May 2024 to adopt some version of the WHO’s pandemic treaty.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The Colorado Supreme Court ruled Trump violated the insurrectionist clause of the 14th Amendment for his role in January 6 in a 4-3 decision. The court also stayed its decision based on the probability of appeals, which the Trump campaign promised to make.
Legal scholar Jonathan Turley slammed the Colorado Supreme Court for its ruling.
‘Well, this court just handed partisans on both sides the ultimate tool to try to shortcut elections, and it’s very, very dangerous,’ Turley said on Fox News moments after the decision.
‘I mean, this country is a powder keg, and this court is just throwing matches at it. And I think that it’s a real mistake. But I think that they’re wrong on the law,’ Turley added.
The Trump team is obviously expected to appeal to the Supreme Court. But time is of the essence, given the secretary of state has said they are required to certify list of candidates for the GOP primary by Jan. 5.
Colorado GOP announces it will withdraw the party from the primary and convert to a caucus system if Colorado Supreme Court ruling is allowed to stand.
OBSERVATION - Cross post with “Politics” Turley nails it by saying “’I mean, this country is a powder keg, and this court is just throwing matches at it.” This is the first of a half dozen or so democrat based lawsuits seeing Trump’s removal from ballots based on the 14th amendment that has succeeded. This court decision overturned a lower court decision in favor of Trump.
It is highly probable that the USSC will step in and overrule CO - ending the law fare once and for all. If for some reason the USSC fails to step in, then this will definitely ignite anger on the right for unwarranted election interference. Even Smith’s prosecution of Trump for J6 does NOT include insurrection charges.
Right now the country hangs in the balance, and these activist judges in Colorado make control of the USSC even more critical, as their decisions would be in place for decades.
***
Plans for “Marches for Trump” are being developed for locations across the country. Initial understanding that these events will be similar to previous events where supporters come together in cars / boats in a large parade. These events may get a boost in participation given the CO supreme court ruling. They may also server as a target for violent Antifa based counter protests.
***
More than 20 labor unions have endorsed pro-Palestine demonstrations in California, including the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Local 3299, Oakland Education Association, Service Employees Union (SEIU) Local 1021, International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 10.
OBSERVATION - I see this as internal democrat / progressive maneuvering to gain leverage in the pro-israel vs pro-hamas civil war among democrats. Union support of pro-hamas causes, with associated following money (or lack thereof) to candidates would serve as a tool to shift the party from its current majority support of Israel to pro hamas. Union support could also become a resource for allied Antifa/hamas supporters in future protests and riots.
***
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) are preparing for 2020-style civil unrest.
According to a recent training event, officials believe that civil disturbances — such as protests, riots, sit-ins, and other civil unrest — present a “very high” threat to federal facilities in 2024.
OBSERVATION - A victory by either party may well kickoff violent protests. These protests likely would be from elements of the left who are by nature more prone to using violence to obtain their political goals than the right.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Current border situation is so swamped that it is nearly impossible to judge the number of potential terrorists entering the country. As commonly reported, the majority of these illegals are men of military age.
Economy-
The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $381 billion so far into the 2024 fiscal year, which represents a 13% increase from this same time period last year.
The deficit is $44 billion higher than it was at the end of November 2022, according to the latest data released by the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
Scott Hodge, the president of the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit, said the U.S. Treasury reporting a 13% increase in the deficit compared to November 2022 shows the U.S. government continues to go down the wrong path when it comes to fiscal policy.
“It is being driven by federal spending, which is up by $152 billion, a 17% increase compared to the same month in 2022. The monthly deficit would have been worse if decent economic growth hadn’t boosted federal tax collections by $108 billion, or 19%,” Hodge told Just the News.
OBSERVATION - National debt is well into the red zone and forget about cutting it down with future fiscal restraint - just isn’t going to happen. Especially with the drunken spending habits of both sides of congress. IMHO, this is deliberate and is in coordination with the WEF’s overall plans for a global, economic ‘reset’. Burn it down to build it up.
***
(FO) - Stanley Druckenmiller Recession Indicator (SDRI) – the year-over-year performance of stocks of banks, retailers, homebuilders, autos, and small market capitalization companies compared to the S&P 500 – is predicting a recession.
The SDRI predicted the 1990, 2001, and 2008-2009 U.S. recessions. This recession indicator is currently at about the same level as it was in these previous recessions.
OBSERVATION - Continued turmoil regarding the prospects for a recession in 2024. This indicator has a good track record and may well be tapping economic indicators largely ignored by the Treasury dept as well as other economists.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The Heritage Foundation filed a Freedom of Information Act request on July 6, asking Treasury for internal communications containing the terms “recession,” “alternative definition of recession,” and “alternative recession measurements.” (The Daily Signal is The Heritage Foundation’s news outlet.)
The Treasury Department first asked Heritage to narrow the scope of its request, which Heritage did. Yet Treasury failed to hand over the documents, so Heritage filed a lawsuit on Dec. 1, claiming the department violated the Freedom of Information Act.
OBSERVATION - Crosses over into “Economy” as well. Back in 2022, the GDP crossed over into negative territory for three consecutive quarters. At that time a huge spin campaign started to get citizens to ignore that common definition of a recession. Govt numbers playing - especially with ‘adjustments’ months after the headline grabbing announcements is very common. Redefinition of terms as well as cherry picking data serve to obfuscate the real situation. But it is important to citizens who’ve been hammered by bidenomics to know what the real status is.
Biden / Harris Watch –
WH hiding hunter from flight manifests on Marine and Air Force One.
Illegal Immigration –
U.S. border officials encountered the highest number of illegal immigrants at the U.S.-Mexico border on Monday than any day, upending all other records that the Biden administration has set over the past three years.
The Washington Examiner obtained internal U.S. Customs and Border Protection data Tuesday that revealed 14,509 immigrants were encountered by federal law enforcement at the southern border on Monday. The large majority of encounters were of immigrants who walked around the port of entry and crossed into the country illegally, while a small percentage tried to enter at the port of entry but were denied admission.
This breaks the record of 12,000 encounters that was set just two weeks ago.
OBSERVATION - Things are coming unglued even faster than before.
***
Migrant families and their advocates marched outside New York City Hall on Tuesday to demand Mayor Eric Adams end his plan to limit the number of days newly arrived immigrants can remain in city-run shelters.
The late afternoon demonstration of students and parents at City Hall Park was in response to an order Adams issued in October limiting homeless migrants and their children to 60 days in city housing. The Democrat said the move was necessary to relieve a shelter system overwhelmed by asylum-seekers crossing the southern U.S. border.
OBSERVATION - As much as I’d like to say to NY, tough, you asked for it, I see the potential for the collapse of illegal (NOT ‘migrants’) social services in NYC as well as other major metro areas starting a domino effect that could result in unrest and violence by illegals spreading across the country. The overloading of social service systems is deliberate in that it helps forward the WEF’s borderless vision of the world, pushing forward with the global ‘replacement’ efforts to eliminate western culture and standards.
***
Law suits against TX new law making it illegal for individuals to illegally enter the state are in the que and many think TX will lose them. TX is still winning the court battles to prevent the feds from damaging / removing constructed barrier/fences.
North/South Korea –
The United States, Japan, and South Korea announced on Tuesday that they have fully activated a real-time North Korea missile warning system and jointly established a multi-year trilateral exercise plan.
The announcement of the new arrangement follows North Korea’s launches of ballistic missiles on Sunday and Monday through the defense chiefs of the three countries; U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin, Japan Minister of Defense Minoru Kihara, and South Korean Minister of National Defense Shin Wonsik had earlier agreed during the United States-Japan-Republic of Korea Trilateral Ministerial Meeting in November to finalize the two initiatives by the end of 2023.
Japan –
Japan has bought forward the deployment of a new version of its in-service ground-launched variant of the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) Type 12 anti-ship missile, intending to field it in Fiscal Year 2025 instead of the earlier planned deployment date of FY 2026.
Japan Defense Minister Minoru Kihara announced the new deployment schedule on Friday during his regular Friday press conference stating that the “acceleration is a realisation of the sense of urgency that Japan must acquire a practical stand-off defense capability as soon as possible”. He added that the Japan defense ministry was looking at other domestically produced and under development stand-off missiles to field them at an earlier date than scheduled.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 19 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight.
Russian army conducted missile strike at Kropivnintsky overnight
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations, resulting in very little significant combat overnight. Expect russia to keep pressing Adviivka area.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Locally intense fighting continues in N and S Gaza as IDF closes in on Hamas strongholds.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
More ceasefire rumors and alleged negotiations.
***
Israel’s Army Radio reported Tuesday that the manager of the Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza told interrogators that Hamas terrorists had commandeered the hospital and forced staff to do its bidding, believing that the IDF would not strike there.
Israel’s military announced Tuesday that it has taken out Subhi Ferwana, a “Hamas financier involved in transferring tens of millions of dollars to the Hamas terrorist organization’s military wing.”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli army’s 162nd Division gains full control of Hamas stronghold of Jabalia in northern Gaza; hundreds of militants killed, 500 terror suspects captured including Oct. 7 perpetrators; terror tunnels, command centers & rocket production factories destroyed
1,500 tunnel shafts and underground passages have been exposed in Gaza by our troops since the beginning of the war. Most of these have been found beneath schools, hospitals, mosques, UN facilities and civilian institutions.
IDF’s 162nd Division has reportedly gained full control of Hamas stronghold of Jabalia in northern Gaza; hundreds of terrorists killed, 500 terror suspects captured including Oct. 7 perpetrators; terror tunnels, command centers & rocket production factories destroyed.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Border fight continues with little change as Hezbollah continues to fire mortars and ATGMs along the Lebanon border, with IDF artillery and air strikes in response.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces actions through out the West Bank to capture/neutralize Hamas and related terrorists. Skirmishes reported in several locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi leadership have doubled down on their threats to shipping in the Red Sea, promising that they would not stop and, “Whoever seeks to expand the conflict must bear the consequences of those actions.”
The multi-nation naval task force is coming together in the Red Sea region. Houthi missile/drone attacks have ceased - likely temporarily over the past few days.
Reports of the development of a strike plan against Houthi bases and facilities to mitigate their threats to shipping.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Lavrov - The necessity of respecting international legitimacy and establishing a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.
Blinken spoke with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry today to affirm U.S.-Egypt cooperation on shared priorities including the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, increasing aid to Gaza, and regional security.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete. Action now is relatively routine.
The armada forming against the Houthi is growing, and has temporally paused their attacks on shipping, but they’ve vowed to continue. US/allies are coming up with a strike plan to mitigate Houthi attacks and protect shipping. We’ll see just how far the US is willing to go to deal with the Houthi. Any measly counter attacks will not serve to instill confidence in global shipping. Currently, about 10% of all global shipping traffic passes through the Red Sea / Suez canal. Further disruptions in traffic will soon be impacting countries around the globe.
Iraq -
The Iraqi High Electoral Commission released preliminary results for the Iraqi provincial council elections. Shia parties, including those affiliated with Iran, won the largest count of votes in Baghdad and most of Iraq’s southern provinces.
OBSERVATION - Continued bad news for Iraq’s sunni community and indication of further shadow dominance of Iraq by Iran.