FYI - In celebration of the darkest day of the year tomorrow (as well as my birthday), I’m not planning on posting, unless an unusual situation arises. I’ll catch up on Friday/Saturday.
Globalism / Great Reset –
2024 globalist events / meeting agendas announced.
- The World Economic Forum has announced the theme of their 54th annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland: Rebuilding Trust. It’s no surprise that the WEF continues their focus on building trust after they have become enemy number one of millions of people around the world since 2020. The WEF says the meeting will “restore collective agency” and reinforce the “principles of transparency, consistency and accountability” among world leaders.
- According to the Summit for the Future website, the summit is a “once-in-a-generation opportunity” to address gaps in global governance. The Summit will take place in September 2024 and will continue the push for nations to “reaffirm existing commitments” to the SDGs and the UN Charter. Member states will be expected to build on the outcomes of the SDG Summit and “breathe new life into the multilateral system” and accomplish the Agenda 2030.
- The WHO’s 194 member nations are slated to meet again in May 2024 to adopt some version of the WHO’s pandemic treaty.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The Colorado Supreme Court ruled Trump violated the insurrectionist clause of the 14th Amendment for his role in January 6 in a 4-3 decision. The court also stayed its decision based on the probability of appeals, which the Trump campaign promised to make.
Legal scholar Jonathan Turley slammed the Colorado Supreme Court for its ruling.
‘Well, this court just handed partisans on both sides the ultimate tool to try to shortcut elections, and it’s very, very dangerous,’ Turley said on Fox News moments after the decision.
‘I mean, this country is a powder keg, and this court is just throwing matches at it. And I think that it’s a real mistake. But I think that they’re wrong on the law,’ Turley added.
The Trump team is obviously expected to appeal to the Supreme Court. But time is of the essence, given the secretary of state has said they are required to certify list of candidates for the GOP primary by Jan. 5.
Colorado GOP announces it will withdraw the party from the primary and convert to a caucus system if Colorado Supreme Court ruling is allowed to stand.
OBSERVATION - Cross post with “Politics” Turley nails it by saying “’I mean, this country is a powder keg, and this court is just throwing matches at it.” This is the first of a half dozen or so democrat based lawsuits seeing Trump’s removal from ballots based on the 14th amendment that has succeeded. This court decision overturned a lower court decision in favor of Trump.
It is highly probable that the USSC will step in and overrule CO - ending the law fare once and for all. If for some reason the USSC fails to step in, then this will definitely ignite anger on the right for unwarranted election interference. Even Smith’s prosecution of Trump for J6 does NOT include insurrection charges.
Right now the country hangs in the balance, and these activist judges in Colorado make control of the USSC even more critical, as their decisions would be in place for decades.
***
Plans for “Marches for Trump” are being developed for locations across the country. Initial understanding that these events will be similar to previous events where supporters come together in cars / boats in a large parade. These events may get a boost in participation given the CO supreme court ruling. They may also server as a target for violent Antifa based counter protests.
***
More than 20 labor unions have endorsed pro-Palestine demonstrations in California, including the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees Local 3299, Oakland Education Association, Service Employees Union (SEIU) Local 1021, International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 10.
OBSERVATION - I see this as internal democrat / progressive maneuvering to gain leverage in the pro-israel vs pro-hamas civil war among democrats. Union support of pro-hamas causes, with associated following money (or lack thereof) to candidates would serve as a tool to shift the party from its current majority support of Israel to pro hamas. Union support could also become a resource for allied Antifa/hamas supporters in future protests and riots.
***
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) are preparing for 2020-style civil unrest.
According to a recent training event, officials believe that civil disturbances — such as protests, riots, sit-ins, and other civil unrest — present a “very high” threat to federal facilities in 2024.
OBSERVATION - A victory by either party may well kickoff violent protests. These protests likely would be from elements of the left who are by nature more prone to using violence to obtain their political goals than the right.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Current border situation is so swamped that it is nearly impossible to judge the number of potential terrorists entering the country. As commonly reported, the majority of these illegals are men of military age.
Economy-
The U.S. government ran a budget deficit of $381 billion so far into the 2024 fiscal year, which represents a 13% increase from this same time period last year.
The deficit is $44 billion higher than it was at the end of November 2022, according to the latest data released by the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
Scott Hodge, the president of the Tax Foundation, a nonpartisan tax policy 501(c)(3) nonprofit, said the U.S. Treasury reporting a 13% increase in the deficit compared to November 2022 shows the U.S. government continues to go down the wrong path when it comes to fiscal policy.
“It is being driven by federal spending, which is up by $152 billion, a 17% increase compared to the same month in 2022. The monthly deficit would have been worse if decent economic growth hadn’t boosted federal tax collections by $108 billion, or 19%,” Hodge told Just the News.
OBSERVATION - National debt is well into the red zone and forget about cutting it down with future fiscal restraint - just isn’t going to happen. Especially with the drunken spending habits of both sides of congress. IMHO, this is deliberate and is in coordination with the WEF’s overall plans for a global, economic ‘reset’. Burn it down to build it up.
***
(FO) - Stanley Druckenmiller Recession Indicator (SDRI) – the year-over-year performance of stocks of banks, retailers, homebuilders, autos, and small market capitalization companies compared to the S&P 500 – is predicting a recession.
The SDRI predicted the 1990, 2001, and 2008-2009 U.S. recessions. This recession indicator is currently at about the same level as it was in these previous recessions.
OBSERVATION - Continued turmoil regarding the prospects for a recession in 2024. This indicator has a good track record and may well be tapping economic indicators largely ignored by the Treasury dept as well as other economists.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The Heritage Foundation filed a Freedom of Information Act request on July 6, asking Treasury for internal communications containing the terms “recession,” “alternative definition of recession,” and “alternative recession measurements.” (The Daily Signal is The Heritage Foundation’s news outlet.)
The Treasury Department first asked Heritage to narrow the scope of its request, which Heritage did. Yet Treasury failed to hand over the documents, so Heritage filed a lawsuit on Dec. 1, claiming the department violated the Freedom of Information Act.
OBSERVATION - Crosses over into “Economy” as well. Back in 2022, the GDP crossed over into negative territory for three consecutive quarters. At that time a huge spin campaign started to get citizens to ignore that common definition of a recession. Govt numbers playing - especially with ‘adjustments’ months after the headline grabbing announcements is very common. Redefinition of terms as well as cherry picking data serve to obfuscate the real situation. But it is important to citizens who’ve been hammered by bidenomics to know what the real status is.
Biden / Harris Watch –
WH hiding hunter from flight manifests on Marine and Air Force One.
Illegal Immigration –
U.S. border officials encountered the highest number of illegal immigrants at the U.S.-Mexico border on Monday than any day, upending all other records that the Biden administration has set over the past three years.
The Washington Examiner obtained internal U.S. Customs and Border Protection data Tuesday that revealed 14,509 immigrants were encountered by federal law enforcement at the southern border on Monday. The large majority of encounters were of immigrants who walked around the port of entry and crossed into the country illegally, while a small percentage tried to enter at the port of entry but were denied admission.
This breaks the record of 12,000 encounters that was set just two weeks ago.
OBSERVATION - Things are coming unglued even faster than before.
***
Migrant families and their advocates marched outside New York City Hall on Tuesday to demand Mayor Eric Adams end his plan to limit the number of days newly arrived immigrants can remain in city-run shelters.
The late afternoon demonstration of students and parents at City Hall Park was in response to an order Adams issued in October limiting homeless migrants and their children to 60 days in city housing. The Democrat said the move was necessary to relieve a shelter system overwhelmed by asylum-seekers crossing the southern U.S. border.
OBSERVATION - As much as I’d like to say to NY, tough, you asked for it, I see the potential for the collapse of illegal (NOT ‘migrants’) social services in NYC as well as other major metro areas starting a domino effect that could result in unrest and violence by illegals spreading across the country. The overloading of social service systems is deliberate in that it helps forward the WEF’s borderless vision of the world, pushing forward with the global ‘replacement’ efforts to eliminate western culture and standards.
***
Law suits against TX new law making it illegal for individuals to illegally enter the state are in the que and many think TX will lose them. TX is still winning the court battles to prevent the feds from damaging / removing constructed barrier/fences.
North/South Korea –
The United States, Japan, and South Korea announced on Tuesday that they have fully activated a real-time North Korea missile warning system and jointly established a multi-year trilateral exercise plan.
The announcement of the new arrangement follows North Korea’s launches of ballistic missiles on Sunday and Monday through the defense chiefs of the three countries; U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin, Japan Minister of Defense Minoru Kihara, and South Korean Minister of National Defense Shin Wonsik had earlier agreed during the United States-Japan-Republic of Korea Trilateral Ministerial Meeting in November to finalize the two initiatives by the end of 2023.
Japan –
Japan has bought forward the deployment of a new version of its in-service ground-launched variant of the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) Type 12 anti-ship missile, intending to field it in Fiscal Year 2025 instead of the earlier planned deployment date of FY 2026.
Japan Defense Minister Minoru Kihara announced the new deployment schedule on Friday during his regular Friday press conference stating that the “acceleration is a realisation of the sense of urgency that Japan must acquire a practical stand-off defense capability as soon as possible”. He added that the Japan defense ministry was looking at other domestically produced and under development stand-off missiles to field them at an earlier date than scheduled.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-40 degree range with on again, off again rain and snow.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to dominate action.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 19 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight.
Russian army conducted missile strike at Kropivnintsky overnight
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations, resulting in very little significant combat overnight. Expect russia to keep pressing Adviivka area.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Locally intense fighting continues in N and S Gaza as IDF closes in on Hamas strongholds.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
More ceasefire rumors and alleged negotiations.
***
Israel’s Army Radio reported Tuesday that the manager of the Kamal Adwan Hospital in northern Gaza told interrogators that Hamas terrorists had commandeered the hospital and forced staff to do its bidding, believing that the IDF would not strike there.
Israel’s military announced Tuesday that it has taken out Subhi Ferwana, a “Hamas financier involved in transferring tens of millions of dollars to the Hamas terrorist organization’s military wing.”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Israeli army’s 162nd Division gains full control of Hamas stronghold of Jabalia in northern Gaza; hundreds of militants killed, 500 terror suspects captured including Oct. 7 perpetrators; terror tunnels, command centers & rocket production factories destroyed
1,500 tunnel shafts and underground passages have been exposed in Gaza by our troops since the beginning of the war. Most of these have been found beneath schools, hospitals, mosques, UN facilities and civilian institutions.
IDF’s 162nd Division has reportedly gained full control of Hamas stronghold of Jabalia in northern Gaza; hundreds of terrorists killed, 500 terror suspects captured including Oct. 7 perpetrators; terror tunnels, command centers & rocket production factories destroyed.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Border fight continues with little change as Hezbollah continues to fire mortars and ATGMs along the Lebanon border, with IDF artillery and air strikes in response.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued Israeli security forces actions through out the West Bank to capture/neutralize Hamas and related terrorists. Skirmishes reported in several locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi leadership have doubled down on their threats to shipping in the Red Sea, promising that they would not stop and, “Whoever seeks to expand the conflict must bear the consequences of those actions.”
The multi-nation naval task force is coming together in the Red Sea region. Houthi missile/drone attacks have ceased - likely temporarily over the past few days.
Reports of the development of a strike plan against Houthi bases and facilities to mitigate their threats to shipping.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Lavrov - The necessity of respecting international legitimacy and establishing a Palestinian state with Jerusalem as its capital.
Blinken spoke with Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry today to affirm U.S.-Egypt cooperation on shared priorities including the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, increasing aid to Gaza, and regional security.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - Israel continues the methodical elimination of Hamas forces throughout Gaza. IDF repeats the estimate of several months before the operation is considered to be complete. Action now is relatively routine.
The armada forming against the Houthi is growing, and has temporally paused their attacks on shipping, but they’ve vowed to continue. US/allies are coming up with a strike plan to mitigate Houthi attacks and protect shipping. We’ll see just how far the US is willing to go to deal with the Houthi. Any measly counter attacks will not serve to instill confidence in global shipping. Currently, about 10% of all global shipping traffic passes through the Red Sea / Suez canal. Further disruptions in traffic will soon be impacting countries around the globe.
Iraq -
The Iraqi High Electoral Commission released preliminary results for the Iraqi provincial council elections. Shia parties, including those affiliated with Iran, won the largest count of votes in Baghdad and most of Iraq’s southern provinces.
OBSERVATION - Continued bad news for Iraq’s sunni community and indication of further shadow dominance of Iraq by Iran.
Happy Birthday early
Wishing you an early Happy Birthday!
Thanks. I hope your birthday is wonderful.
“OBSERVATION - As much as I’d like to say to NY, tough, you asked for it, I see the potential for the collapse of illegal (NOT ‘migrants’) social services in NYC as well as other major metro areas starting a domino effect that could result in unrest and violence by illegals spreading across the country. The overloading of social service systems is deliberate in that it helps forward the WEF’s borderless vision of the world, pushing forward with the global ‘replacement’ efforts to eliminate western culture and standards.”
How will the Collapse help? Violence by illegals happens, then our military or UN step in with a coup?
HAPPY BIRTHDAY tomorrow!
Hope your birth day is wonderful!
Happy Birthday! As your present, Here’s Tokyo! Stomp on!
thanks for the birthday wishes, it was a dark day when I was born.
No regular TM post - used my day off to continue to work through the year in review. Today being CW2/Domestic violence.
2023 In Review and 2024 Outlook.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
There are many other factors that I don’t cover here, but these are the biggies IMHO.
Keep in mind, the goal of the WEF et al is to divide the US, to prevent resistance to their desired conquest of the world.
The polls all indicate a growing view that there will be some sort of a civil break up between Red and Blue in the near future. Democrats/ leftists also poll even stronger towards the willingness to use violence to obtain their goals. Thus the chasm between Red and Blue has grown substantially over the course of 2023.
This category has also morphed significantly over the past year. Originally documenting the Antifa/BLM insurrections, it has grown to include the deliberate targeting of conservatives by the deep state. In the forefront is the rapidly development of data bases upon which the feds may initially try to arrest/detain if and when things go sideways. The the CW2 scenario has grown to one of govt vs civilians.
The Antifa crowd had a very slow first part of the year — no real big events to stir up their base to turn out on a nationwide basis. Then the blowback from the trans movement by parents and other groups stimulated the formation of a new element- Transfifa, trans sex supporters that utilize violent Antifa developed tactics. Transtifa attacks were prevalent over most of the summer, assaulting anti-grooming speakers and groups. So brash were these attacks, it caused a split in the LGBT community with the onset of Gays against Groomers speaking out against the trans agenda.
The Gaza war created another new outlet for leftist violence. The pro-hamas movements, largely centered on US colleges and universities, has suggested that a tipping point has been reached with the massive influx of moslems into the country, combined with indoctrination and wimpy civilian / govts unwilling to go against this new entitled class - radical moslems. Going into this flow was the radical LGBT elements- a strange mix given that under full moslem shariah law they would be tossed off roofs, they are seemingly tolerating them for numbers turnout and propagandizing the hamas cause. And of course Antifa showing up for anything anti-govt. Hitting also during the holiday season, they’ve gotten more press than normal. A disturbing trend is increasing highway blockages. These protests have been largely peaceful, absent the more violent Antifa/BLM road blocks of 2020.
This newly violent anti-Israeli democrat left has also created a rift in the democrat party in general. Traditional democrats generally support Israel. The Marxist elements on the left are now full on anti-Israel and the infighting is increasing.
Another growing factor is the totally uncontrolled flood of illegals entering the country . Taking from the Illegal discussion a little, these illegals notably tend to be military aged males. This flood is deliberate - representing the once derided concept that these massive immigrations were designed to corrupt and tear down the existing society - Europe has been succumbing to a similar uncontrolled migration of middle easterners and N Africans as well.
All this is causing resentment by the pre-existing dependency class - predominantly blacks in urban, blue metro areas. Friction between them and the illegals is growing. But friction is growing against biden and Chicago blacks have warned of massive demonstrations during the democratic nation convention this next year. The other aspect of such a flood of illegals are terror / military cells from the many anti-US countries out there. These covered more when I get to Terrorism.
Media and other mouthpieces have furthered the narrative of racism and violence is acceptable towards whites. This brings up the specter of brewing race war. Massive looting of stores is being represented as ‘reparations’ and crime directed at whites.
One last item - the massive democrat efforts to stop the Trump candidacy by legal or ‘other’ means. Trump could well be the third rail of the political period. Right now as legal persecutions increase, so Trump’s support appears to be solidifying, rather than melting. Huge errors are being made by these prosecutors and judges and any rough handling of Trump could set off repercussions by the right.
Lawfare - a component of the “Political” category to be looked as later is another foreshock of potential violent responses between the right and left. The recent Colorado Supreme Court decision to have Trump removed from the ballot has ratcheted tensions for the election year a whole order of magnitude. Even more terrifying is the potential response on any assassination attempt or success. Many mouthpieces of the left have been calling for assignations and their demonizing of Trump lays the foundation for some one to actually try to follow through with those calls.
One potential outcome that is growing is red states using the precedent set by Colorado by removing biden from their ballots - perhaps by invoking the 25th amendment argument. It would divide this nation with one side holding one president and the other holding another. An interesting and scary potential outcome - one which could trigger a hot civil war as well.
Finally, the whole corruption of the voting system by democrats is pushing the potential that neither side will accept the results of the election. That rejection has a strong potential of moving the needle closer to a very real separation of the country and a hot CW2.
Corruption of the legal system, corruption of the voting system, corruption of free speech is leaving things rushing to what JFK warned about over 60 years ago -
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.” [ Remarks on the first anniversary of the Alliance for Progress, 13 March 1962]”
What is the outlook for 2024?
VERY PERILOUS TIMES. The election year of 2020 was tumultuous, 2024 could potentially be far worse.. My biggest fears consist of
1 Assassination attempts on Trump and others on the right. I think components of the left are desperate enough to try. If Trump gets hit, it is likely ‘go’ time.
2 Expansion of Antifa style protests/riots shifting gears from hamas support to attacking political candidates / rallies, to include burning down the cities, violent road blockades and other violence. This will shift from pro-hamas protests as the war continues and the enthusiasm shifted more towards internal politics. A repeat of 2020 is almost inevitable.
3 Violence at the Democrat national convention - is a certain. Will BLM antagonists use this event to cause problems against other democrat facilities and run cities? See also #2 above.
4 Some sort of false flag event that allow the govt to ‘justify’ a crackdown on the right. Even to the point of establishment of martial law, cancelation of the election and suspension of rights.
5 Apparent illegalities in the vote that some how the least popular president of all times manages to win against Trump. The stolen election nearly tore the country apart. This time around it could get ugly.
6 Will any of the 5 above result in a “divorce” with red vs blue separating either ‘peacefully’ or violently .
7 Outbreak of violence by illegals, both unorganized and organized. By organized I’m looking at deliberate terror teams (predominantly islamic or Chinese) launching broad riots or targeted terror attack. This would escalate very quickly to the potential of civilian defense elements in the face of probable govt inaction.
What do I see a CW2 break up looking like? Based on trends I’ve been monitoring i think it breaks out like this. First and foremost - a democrat controlled fed govt will be hostile to any conservative separation and could launch arrests of potential resistance leadership, martial law and other crack downs that could precipitate shooting scenarios.
Strong red or blue states will likely try to separate as a state, providing a govt structure already in place. I think that separation will still be strongly influenced by the Red vs Blue county breakout. For instance, red CA,OR and WA will not side with the blue controls in the state capitols. So on a broad measure, the dark blue metro areas along both coasts vs red rural areas is the break out I see. So a CW1 scenario of state vs state is less likely due to heterogeneity of the populations versus a more homogeneous culture during the civil war.
Many think the CW2 will develop into something similar to the Spanish civil war, with liberal cities versus conservative rural areas. Cities would have an initial population advantage but are heavily resource dependent. Rural areas more self sufficient, but with better armed/trained, though fewer civilians. A lot of scenarios run outward from this. The worst case is rural areas laying siege to cities, the fed forces trying to maintain supply lines to the cities as well as trying to keep their supply lines open and keep the troops inline.
CW2 in 2024? With all the potential ruptures above, 2024 is fast becoming the most dangerous year in our history. Prepare accordingly.
Hope yours was happy. Mine is today. Guess I needed to be sure the light was coming back. 🙂