Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
Did the world hit a tipping point on Oct 7th? That is a question that is gaining more and more attention. It ripped open some seriously ugly on a global basis and destabilized an already wobbly world even further.
Economy –
The commercial real estate sector is facing the possibility of a substantial number of bankruptcies that could ultimately hamper economic recovery and threaten the wounded banking industry, according to experts who spoke to the Daily Caller News Foundation.
“Commercial real estate is in deep trouble and could constitute a major risk to the banking system and the recovery,” Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told the DCNF. “In fact, I would characterize the situation as a slow-moving train wreck. The underlying problem is that occupancy rates have slumped post-Covid since many workers are now working at least part of the time from home.”
https://thelibertydaily.com/slow-moving-train-wreck-theres-powder-keg-inside/
OBSERVATION - Hand in hand with the residential real estate crisis is the commercial real estate crisis. Both look at synergizing with the other and continued high fed prime rates coupled with the persistent damage from the wuhan plandemic shutdowns threaten the larger banking related community. This would result in more bank collapses and failures - even among the so called too large to fail banks. If this happens, then the conspiracy theories of bank “bail ins” and even the pushing of the global reset button become a very real possibility.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Saturday night’s massive protest in Downtown Sacramento brought the California Democratic Convention to a standstill. More than 2,500 demonstrators flooded the streets, demanding Democratic leaders call for a cease-fire in Gaza.
The protest originated as a sit-in demonstration inside the Safe Credit Union Convention Center building with about 200 people. However, it rapidly escalated, swelling to thousands as protestors called for democratic leaders to call for a cease-fire.
Sameena Husman, a delegate, emphasized that some Democratic voters, stating that without swift action, won’t participate in next year’s elections.
“A lot of people who are Democrats have lost faith in the party,” Husman said. “We need to stand up and say we’re not going to stand for this, and we have to have a cease-fire.”
The Democratic Party of Oregon canceled its Portland holiday party over fears of violence & disruption from leftist pro-Palestine protesters.
OBSERVATION - Can cross reference under political category as well. The targeting of the democrats by pro-hamas elements is most interesting and evidence of internal conflicts between older, more moderate dems and the radical marxist leftist in the party now supporting hamas. It would seem that the marxists are attempting to secure their democrat power base in the face of the 2024 elections. So the violence currently is directed towards them. Once they gain capitulation of that group, you can expect violence to next focus on everyone else.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Police in Lakewood, N.J. are investigating a grenade that was attached to a utility pole near the Satmar Bais Medrash synagogue. The Lakewood Scoop reports that the grenade was real but inert and empty.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The extent of the fraudulent reporting and the increasing evidence that the J6 events were planned keep rolling in with more and more video release. The whole point of J6, it appears, was to sabotage the Electoral College objections, prevent an investigation of election fraud allegations, and frame Trump and his supporters for it. It worked so far, but the narrative is crumbling. Never fear, the deep state is not going to let these criminals who organized this false flag event be prosecuted. Withholding evidence in the trials of J6 individuals may result in judges thinking otherwise.
***
Musk is expected to launch is ‘thermonuclear” lawsuit against uber leftist Media Matters and associated individuals today. It has also come to light that the CEO for X was strongly encouraged to resign as part of this pressure campaign by high level advertising executives.
RELATED - On Sunday, Republican Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey announced that his team is investigating left-leaning news organization Media Matters over allegations of criminal and civil violations.
This comes after Elon Musk announced that X-Corp will be launching a “thermonuclear lawsuit” against the company on claims that Media Matters enacted a “fraudulent attack” on X-Corp and in an attempt to “undermine freedom of speech and mislead advertisers.”
The specific allegations that Attorney General Bailey’s Office is investigating pertain to recent findings that Media Matters allegedly created fake social media accounts to game the X servers in order to create false impressions for its hit piece on Elon Musk. These allegations went viral after they were shared on X by Human Events’ Jack Posobiec.On Sunday, Republican Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey announced that his team is investigating left-leaning news organization Media Matters over allegations of criminal and civil violations.
This comes after Elon Musk announced that X-Corp will be launching a “thermonuclear lawsuit” against the company on claims that Media Matters enacted a “fraudulent attack” on X-Corp and in an attempt to “undermine freedom of speech and mislead advertisers.”
The specific allegations that Attorney General Bailey’s Office is investigating pertain to recent findings that Media Matters allegedly created fake social media accounts to game the X servers in order to create false impressions for its hit piece on Elon Musk. These allegations went viral after they were shared on X by Human Events’ Jack Posobiec.
OBSERVATION - Taking the fight directly to Soros funded MM, both civilly and criminally. This includes board members as well at MM. Evidence put forth by Musk seems to support the charges and places it on solid ground. These WEF sensitive corporations that pulled their ads based on this coordinated campaign may well be in a world of hurt as well - conspiracy. Break open the popcorn.
***
A new NBC national poll for the 2024 general election has Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump beating President Joe Biden for the “first time” in the network’s “history,” according to NBC host Kristen Welker.
Welker was joined by national correspondent Steve Kornacki Sunday during the network’s show “Meet the Press” to discuss the latest polling for the 2024 general election. Kornacki stated that Trump now leads Biden by 2 points, holding at 46 percent.
OBSERVATION - I don’t given a lot of credence to polling, especially this early in the election cycle, but two things jump out bigly.
1. This is from a leftist leaning organization who has historically skewed their polls towards the left as a means to sway public opinion. The fact that they reported that Trump is leading indicates strongly that their ‘special sauce’ poll tactics are mot enough to over come Trump’s popularity.
2. That they would go forward and publish such a negative poll also strongly suggests that the powers that be may be trying to get biden to step down. Media has provided less and less cover for biden’s scandals and bungles over the past months.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden got creepy with a young girl. . . . . . again.
China –
Taiwan reported renewed Chinese military activity around the island on Sunday, with nine aircraft crossing the sensitive median line of the Taiwan Strait and warships carrying out “combat readiness patrols.”
Democratically-governed Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, has complained for the past four years of regular Chinese military patrols and drills near the island, as Beijing seeks to pressure Taipei over its sovereignty claims.
With Chinese President Xi Jinping in San Francisco last week for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, where he met U.S. President Joe Biden, the scale of that military activity around Taiwan had scaled off. These incursions resumed Sunday following Xi’s return to China from the APEC summit.
OBSERVATION - Xi made happy with biden over the weekend, but that is a deception. Xi will do what it takes to seize Taiwan and that opportunity window is closing fast - especially if biden drops out of the election or is defeated, then China may strike sooner than later.
***
Taiwan holds presidential and parliamentary elections on Jan. 13, with the island’s fraught relations with China an important topic on the campaign trail.
OBSERVATION - China is hip deep in trying to influence the outcome of this election. if it goes against it, expect a serious response
North/South Korea –
The defense chiefs of South Korea and the United States on Monday unveiled an updated security strategy, the first in a decade, specifically designed to counter the growing threats emanating from North Korean nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction.
“(The defense chiefs) recognized that the 2023 TDS revisions render it into a flexible and robust document that serves as a strategic framework to effectively deter and respond to advancing DPRK nuclear and other WMD and non-nuclear capabilities with strategic impacts,” read the joint statement of the annual Security Consultative Meeting, a key bilateral defense dialogue, held in Seoul.
OBSERVATION - Pretty standard, but will draw the ire of NK never the less.
Japan –
Japan has strongly condemned the hijacking of Japanese-operated cargo ship Galaxy Leader in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
The Yemeni militia claimed the vessel was Israeli, but a Japanese government spokesperson said the car carrier was operated by Nippon Yusen.
Japan’s chief cabinet secretary said it is working towards its release.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed Iran, which backs the Houthi militia, for the hijacking.
Mr Netanyahu said neither the vessel nor the crew were Israeli, and called it an “Iranian attack on an international ship”.
Twenty-two people are believed to be on board the vessel which is thought to be British-owned.
Nippon Yusen said the Galaxy Leader was seized off the coast of Yemen on its way to India.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Logistics –
British intel: Russia will likely bring the Soviet-era M-55 high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft back into service. Max 70,000 ft ceiling.
NOTE - This plane in similar in some design aspects and use as the US SR-1 birds. Russia is seriously lacking airborne intelligence platforms to guide their war efforts. However unlike the US, Russia has not maintained nor upgraded these airframes to bring them into the era of modern war.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Much of eastern Ukraine will see their first accumulating snowfall of the season next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian airstrike with JDAM at Russian base near Tarasivka of Kherson region.
Other than that, nothing really significant other than more fighting in the Kherson region.
Kherson Axis -
Things are becoming more interesting in the push across the Dniper River. It is being noted that it’s only 65km from the Ukrainian bridgehead at Krynky to occupied Crimea. Similar distance from the second bridgehead closer to Kherson. The old axiom comes into play - “he who gets there with the mostest first will win it”
Outlook —-
Weather dominated lull in most of the fighting, but that isn’t really stopping all of it. However, nothing significant expected in the near term.
Europe / NATO General –
France has successfully test-fired an M51.3 long-range ballistic missile, boosting the credibility of France’s nuclear deterrence capabilities, the defense ministry said on Sunday. The M51.3 missile is an upgraded version of the M51, a three-stage sea-land strategic ballistic missile designed to be launched from French Navy submarines. The M51 was first test-fired from a ground base in 2006 and from a submarine in 2010, the year it was commissioned.
***
Antifa held a demonstration in Madrid, Spain on Nov. 18 to oppose the conservatives protesting against the socialist government giving amnesty to leftist separatists.
Far more massive protests against the leftists in the Madrid govt continue, far outnumbering the Antifa elements.
OBSERVATION - Mobilization of Antifa elements, combined with other more radical leftist elements is raising the potential for inter-group violence in the near term. From what I’ve read, the amnesty for the leftists is not yet a done deal and something that the interim govt is not even permitted to do - because it is temporary. Initial impression I’ve read is that the Judiciary is not inclined favorably to such extra judicial grant of amnesty.
****
Finland is preparing to close its four remaining checkpoints on the border with Russia on the night of November 21-22 - Finnish media.
OBSERVATION - Russia continues to facilitate the movement of Somali and Syrian refugees toward the Baltic regions in a move designed to destabilize the countries in a manner much of the rest of europe has been destabilized.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel released videos showing hostages being brought into the Shifa Hospital forcibly by Hamas elements and hospital staff taking note, but no actions.
- Israel also released videos of one of the entrances and portions of what appears to be a much bigger bunker located beneath the Shifa hospital complex. Video stopped at a large blast door yet to be breached.
- IDF ground forces continued to move eastward from the coast while forces in moved south from the northern border region.
- The Indonesian Hospital is in the process of being surrounded and taken over in a manner similar to the Shifa hospital .
- Houthi terrorists have hijacked the cargo ship GALAXY LEADER.
GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas press notice - “We demand action to stop targeting civilians in schools protected under international law”
NOTE - Tons of evidence Hamas has been using schools for rocket launching and munitions storage.
***
Israeli army released for publication 2 videos from the Shifa Hamas HQ showing Hamas terorists bringing in kidnapped civilians (a Thai and Nepalese nationals) during the Simchat Tora Massacre on October 7th, the “medical staff” is clearly and willingly collaborating with the militants
Additionally, the army also says a medical report determined that a young Israeli woman soldier whose body was recovered last week had been injured in an air strike and then killed by Hamas in the hospital.
***
A journalist employed by NBC was arrested on Thursday on suspicion of inciting terrorism and identifying with a terrorist organization.
Marwat Al-Azza, a 45-year-old journalist, employed by the NBC television network and living in east Jerusalem, was arrested after four recent posts on her personal Facebook page regarding the October 7 terror attack by Hamas from the Gaza Strip, in which at least 1,200 people were murdered and 240 taken hostage.
In her investigation, she admitted to what was attributed to her.
***
There continues to be talk about a proposed hostage release / prisoner exchange with some sort of operational ‘pause’ by Israel. Israel is holding firm to its policy of unconditional hostage release.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Hamas announces the killing of 12 people in raids on the Indonesian hospital in the northern Gaza Strip. This Indonesian hospital is the next location of Hamas use and underground bunkers that the IDF is focusing on.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army says that earlier today Hezbollah targets were struck by fighter jets in Lebanon, also confirmed that multiple mortar shells and ATGMs were repeatedly launched in different areas along the border, Israeli army continues to retaliate
The Israeli army says it carried out preemptive artillery shelling in southern Lebanon this morning. A short while later, a number of rockets and mortars were fired from Lebanon at the northern communities of Arab al-Aramshe and Bar’am, as well as the Biranit base.
Hezbollah militia targeted the Israeli “Branit” barracks with heavy “Burkan” missiles.
WEST BANK——————————-
Continuing clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in Jenin camp.
Israeli forces arrested at least 38 Palestinians in the West Bank at dawn today (local)
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi made good their threat on any shipping associated with Israel. Overnight the GALAXY LEADER, a vehicle transport carrier, was attacked by Houthi militants off the coast of Yemen. GALAXY LEADER sails under Ray Shipping LTD; an Israeli based car transport service and was carrying cars that was sailing from Turkey to India. The reports say the’ve taken over the ship and have 22 hostages of which some are alleged to be Israelis*
Houthi rebels are believed to have used a helicopter raid to seize the cargo ship according to US officials.
Joe Biden took the Houthis off the Terror Watch List and then the Houthis attacked the U.S.
Following the hijacking of a ship today, Houthi spokesperson says the following types of ships will be targeted: Ships carrying Israeli flags. Ships operated by Israeli companies and ships owned by Israeli companies
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Jordanian King warns of the disastrous effects of the ongoing war in Gaza, which is killing, defenseless civilians.
NOTE - The king of jordan forgets that these same ‘civilians’ also participated in the horrors of Oct 7th.
***
Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi has condemned the alleged Israeli air strike on the Indonesian hospital in northern Gaza.
This morning, the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said 12 people were killed at the site. Israeli tanks were later seen entering the area.
“The attack is a clear violation of international humanitarian laws,” Marsudi said.
OBSERVATION - Again, allowing the use of the facilities by Hamas for military purposes voids international rules on protecting hospitals and other civilian facilities.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The drama continues to center on various hospitals now that IDF has entered and is in the process of securing them. The location and exploration of the main bunker complexes is still in its early stages, but The Hamas command bunker below the hospital is reportedly as deep as 200 feet and consists of multiple levels with deep tunnels reaching out to other areas in N Gaza.
The Houthi seizure of the GALAXY LEADER is likely to prompt a military strike of some sort on Houthi infrastructure along the coast of the Red Sea. Intel and targeting is probably ongoing by both US and Israeli elements. Until this seizure, it seemed that Israel was willing to put up with sporadic drone and ballistic missile attacks that have been easily defeated. This opens up a new can of worms. Not sure Houthi’s really want to anger other nations on a screwed up hijacking.
Could be that Houthi’s are feeling pretty cocky and that the distance separating it from Israel is enough to grant it some degree of protection, but I wouldn’t count on it.
As the ship is operated by Japan and the crew non-israeli, it is likely that it will be released sooner than later, since Houthi’s desire Israeli hostages, not those from other countries. Once that happens, I expect some kind of military action against the houthi’s by Israel or the US or both.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Central / South America General-
Javier Milei is the new president of Argentina. Sergio Massa has recognized his defeat and conceded. Leftists in Argentina are in tears tonight, sobbing as their 40 years of rule has come to an end.
Milei is considered to be the Argentina Trump.
OBSERVATION - His election was by a landslide and he is wildly popular. One of the platforms of his campaign was to eliminate elements of the government associate with the leftist agenda in the country. It will be a wild ride.
Adding 'pro Hamas nutcases' to liberal hellhole cities gives those dumps a stone age veneer.
How charming. /s
Globalism / Great Reset –
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a handbook for global central banks regarding the development and implementation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
The IMF’s “Central Bank Digital Currency Virtual Handbook” published last week pointed out that the increased use of CBDCs can “reduce dollarization” of the global economy—a situation where countries move away from relying on the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. De-dollarization would push up borrowing costs in the United States, making loans expensive for businesses and individuals, thus affecting economic growth. Stock market values can also crash, reducing the savings and investments of Americans.
https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/fintech/central-bank-digital-currency/virtual-handbook
OBSERVATION - The globalists are going to push this thru no matter what the citizenry says. On top of this is the concept of “de-dollarization” of the global economy - a switch that would cripple the US economy as the dollar still is the currency of international trade, though facing competition by BRICS and other arrangements.
Economy –
Moody’s, one of the main financial rating agencies, has just downgraded its outlook on several U.S. banking giants. The rating agency provided a negative outlook for J.P. Morgan & Chase, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America.
The agency cited extremely high debt in a high-interest-rate environment as the main driver of the negative outlook.
OBSERVATION - This won’t be announced on the MSM any time soon, but there is growing danger to the big banks due to the high fed rates.
***
On Monday’s broadcast of CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged that “Americans still see increases in some important prices, including food, from where we were prior to the pandemic.” And responded to poor polling data on the economy by stating that
“it’s our job to explain to Americans what President Biden has done to improve the economy. I think as inflation comes down, prices stop rising, and the labor market remains strong, Americans will begin to see that we have made meaningful progress.”
Yellen answered, “So, I think we’re making considerable progress in bringing inflation down, and we saw this clearly in last week’s news, 12-month headline inflation is down to 3.2%. That’s down almost 6 percentage points from its high. But, although prices in general are rising much less quickly, Americans still see increases in some important prices, including food, from where we were prior to the pandemic. And this remains notable to people who go to the store and shop or rents — although they’re rising less quickly now — are certainly higher than they were before the pandemic. So, I do think we’re making considerable progress in bringing inflation down, but Americans do notice higher prices from what they used to be accustomed to. And, importantly, we’re making this inflation progress while maintaining a strong economy and a strong labor market. So, that’s good news for Americans.”
OBSERVATION - Yellen essentially admits that the PR happy face blitz the regime has put out isn’t gaining traction. Its because it is bogus. The economy is not all smiley faces. Last night went to the grocery store and looked at the $50 in food, in two small bags, remember back to the Before Years that that much money would fill half the cart.
RELATED - The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has now fallen for 19 months in a row. When something happens for 19 consecutive months, that is definitely a trend. The leading economic index fell 0.8 percent in October, the Conference Board said Monday. The LEI is based on 10 indicators that tend to forecast the direction of the economy.
They (See Yellen above) tell us that inflation is low, but if it was still measured the way that it was back in 1980, the official rate of inflation would be well into double digit territory. And they tell us that the unemployment rate is low, (again see Yellen above) but if honest numbers were being used the official rate of unemployment would be about 25 percent right now.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
New York Rep. Dan Goldman spoke with MSNBC’s Jen Psaki about the recent developments in Donald Trump’s legal battles over the weekend; Goldman simultaneously spoke out about the dangers of Trump’s rhetoric while calling for the former President to be “eliminated.”
Yesterday, he was walking back the comment he made against former President Trump over the weekend that sparked a social media firestorm.
“Yesterday on TV, I mistakenly used the wrong word to express the importance for America that Donald Trump doesn’t become President again,” Rep. Daniel Goldman of New York posted on X on Monday.
“While he must be defeated, I certainly wish no harm to him and do not condone political violence. I apologize for the poor choice of words.”
OBSERVATION - Freudian slip. The left have been calling for the execution - literally - of Trump for the past several months. Goldman’s call for ‘execution’ is just another vocalization of that desire. It is apparent they are losing the campaign and legal assaults are not working. This leaves your basic marxist with one choice in their view - seeing violence to its logical end - assassination. Lord help us if they try this.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Vinson at Busan, SK.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
United States has now hit its highest-ever childhood vaccine exemption rate in history, according to the CDC.
OBSERVATION - I suspect due in large part to the growing skepticism about the safety of the vaccines given the wuhan jab aftermath. Evidence that the CDC et al are losing the information war with the real science people who are exposing the massive deaths and injuries by the jab.
***
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing Pfizer for fraud.
POLITICAL FRONT –
It on. Twitter/X Corp has officially filed a lawsuit against Media Matters. Pundits from across the sector are saying it isn’t going to go well for MM.
District Judge Mark Pittman, a Donald Trump appointee with a history of rulings favorable to conservative causes, will oversee the high-profile lawsuit . So far he has -
1. Ordered the FDA to expedite the release of Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine documents.
2. Struck down President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan on November 10, 2022.
RELATED - In addition to Missouri’s AG inquiry, now Texas AG Paxton has opened a criminal investigation of Media Matters . “The Office of the Attorney General (”OAG”) is opening an investigation into Media Matters for potential fraudulent activity,” the letter said.
“We are examining the issue closely to ensure that the public has not been deceived by the schemes of radical left-wing organizations who would like nothing more than to limit freedom by reducing participation in the public square,” Attorney General Paxton said.
Civil AND criminal charges enroute to MM. They FA and are about to FO.
***
The Arizona Attorney General, Kris Mayes, has threatened legal action against Mojave County officials if they dare to hand-count ballots in the 2024 election.
In the AG’s letter to Mojave County, Mayes purports to be concerned that verifying the accuracy of ballots would ‘undermine Arizona’s democratic process.’
OBSERVATION - Cross ref to CW2 as well. Great fear that corrupt programming of these voting machines will be uncovered by the leftists.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden abruptly left the Thanksgiving turkey pardon. He did his weird jog in a beeline for the White House.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
Was monitoring at a High Alert level, but with Iran crossing Hamas under the bus, the threat has been lowered.
China –
Leading Taiwanese Presidential Candidate Lai Ching-te announced former Taiwanese Representative to the United States Hsiao Bi-Khim as his running mate on the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) ticket. Lai Ching-te is a pro-independence candidate and Bi-Khim is considered the same. Taiwan’s presidential election is scheduled for January 2024 and remains a potential flashpoint for a conflict with China.
OBSERVATION - Just how severe China’s response may be to the election of Lai Ching-te is yet to be seen. Two major exercises by the Chinese navy this year appear to be designed to test a blockade approach to forcing Taiwan to capitulate. Not a severely dangerous as an all out amphibious, but teethy enough to attempt to deter the US and Pacific allies from breaking the blockade.
If current trends continue, biden will be in a very poor position to win reelection against Trump. China doesn’t want to deal with Trump but already has biden and potential replacement - Newscum - wrapped around their little finger. They could get away with a 2024 blockade while the US is focused on a potentially very violent 2024 election run-up. Even the space between the election and inauguration would be enough to get the plan in place.
North/South Korea –
North Korea has officially notified Japan that a satellite launch could happen as soon as Wednesday.
Navigational Warnings have appeared that also indicte a new North Korean satellite launch attempt. Window starts tomorrow 15:00 UTC. Areas are same as earlier this year
***
USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) Nimitz-class aircraft carrier is making port call at Busan, South Korea - November 21, 2023. This follows the same by the USS Reagan a few months ago.
Japan –
See North/South Korea above.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Vladimir Putin will test the world’s largest ballistic missile by flying it over the South Pole, a shocking report by state media has revealed before being rapidly censored.
The Russian dictator is determined to flex his nuclear muscle to the West and will put his first regiment to be armed with the apocalypse 208-ton intercontinental nuclear weapon - the RS-28 Sarmat, aka ‘Satan 2’ - on ‘combat duty’ next month.
Putin’s own state news agency TASS reported that ‘even a truncated LCI [flight development tests], and assuming all launches are successful, would require several more launches, including via the South Pole’.
This state news agency’s claim over the South Pole was hastily censored from the report but remains in cached versions.
NOTE - The RS-28 Sarmat, aka ‘Satan 2’, has had a very limited number of test flights and there is concerns that the system is being deployed before all the bugs can be worked out.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Much of eastern Ukraine will see their first accumulating snowfall of the season next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy night for Ukraine air defenses, shooting down 9 of 10 Shahed drones overnight, 1 Iskander-K cruise missile. Russian army also launched 4 S-300 missiles at Donetsk direction. Targets central and western Ukraine as well as the Kyiv area. Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down a drone over Rostov region and a suspected drone strike hitting Sevastopol, Crimea.
Other than that, the mud has gotten really deep and gooey, bringing much of the ground offensive operations to a grinding halt.
Outlook —-
Weather dominated lull in most of the fighting, but that isn’t really stopping all of it. However, nothing significant expected in the near term.
Winter and mud will more severely impact Russian forces than Ukraine because Ukraine is better supplied for winter operations than Russia. Last winter was brutal on Russian forces and this winter projects to be even worse. Go back to the annuals of WW1 to see that non-combat injuries from living in muddy, wet trenches generated more causalities than actual combat itself. Add to this Russian logistic lines are even more vulnerable than last winter due to the arrival of ATACAMs, and British cruise missiles. The potential addition of F-16s to the mix won’t help Russia either.
Europe / NATO General –
“NATO members Turkiye, Romania and Bulgaria are nearing an agreement to create a joint force to clear mines drifting into their parts of the Black Sea as part of the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”, - Bloomberg
***
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday that it had lodged a formal complaint over Finland’s closure of four border crossings.
Finland said that the decision to close the crossings was to stem the flow of asylum seekers. Finnish authorities have claimed that migrants are purposely being ushered towards the border by Russia, allegations the Kremlin has denied.
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto said that the deportation of applicants who did not meet the criteria for asylum was becoming “impossible.”
“Deportation of migrants who don’t meet the criteria for asylum has become impossible, so entering the border means you stay in that country if you want to,” he said during a state visit to Poland.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Reports of a developing hostage release and fighting ‘pause’ continue.
- IDF continues to press into surrounded areas of N Gaza, with fierce fighting when encountering Hamas elements.
- More videos of hostages being drug into the Shifa Hospital as well as tunnels in various hospital complexes released by IDF.
GENERAL ——————————-
Deal could be announced as soon as today by Qatar for the release of hostages:- 50 hostages/ 300 Palestinian prisoners from Israel; -4-5 day pause; - Israeli surveillance drones to stop over northern Gaza for at least 6 hours/day.
Israel has not commented. Earlier PM Benjamin Netanyahu said his country would not stop fighting until hostages were brought home.
Hamas, in regards to the alledged deal is using the Arabic word- “hudna” - is associated with a non-permanent kind of pause.
OBSERVATION - Clearly designed for Hamas leaders to get out of the encirclement in N Gaza and infiltrate out of S Gaza and into Egypt. I find it hard to believe that Israel will accept anything but full, unconditional release of the hostages as they have the momentum and full tactical advantage now.
Israel has obtained footage of Hamas terrorists taking a kidnapped Israeli boy to the Hamas headquarters in the Al-Shifa hospital.
Unconfirmed reports that IDF forces have broken through fortified door in tunnel under Shifa, entering underground areas below hospital.
The Israeli “Iron Beam” Laser-Defense System has reportedly conducted its first successful combat interception of a rocket launched from the Gaza Strip.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Heavy fighting and intense airstrikes are reported to be ongoing across Northern Gaza right now as both Hamas and the IDF are likely trying to get their last few “kicks” in before the truce/ceasefire begins in what is now believed to be sometime in the coming hours.
Israeli tanks have pushed far into northern Gaza and have now surrounded the Indonesian Hospital and the Hamas terrorists holed up inside.
Israeli forces are close to seizing full control of Zaytun district, a key Hamas stronghold in Gaza City; Israeli forces are fighting in Hamas strongholds east of Gaza City to demolish remaining pockets of resistance
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced Monday that a rocket factory had been discovered beneath a mosque in Gaza, together with a variety of deadly weapons hidden at the holy site.
NOTE- Not going to belabor this, Hamas has fully demonstrated their flaunting of internationally recognized ‘laws of warfare’ by using such facilities for war purposes.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah has gradually taken over the attacks in the north. Initially, it allowed Hamas and affiliated groups operating in southern Lebanon to be the primary attack force, but recently it has been Hezbollah launching the attacks.
Israel continues to hit back with artillery and air strikes.
Concern is rising once again that the intensity of the exchanges is on the rise and that further escalation could cause a much larger conflict.
WEST BANK——————————-
Palestinian militia fighters engaged Israeli forces in eight small arms clashes across the WestBank on Nov. 20. Hamas & the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine continue to call for attacks against Israeli soldiers and civilians in the West Bank.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Iran-backed Houthi terrorist movement warned that it would continue its attacks until the ‘demise of Israel’ after the Houthis seized an Israel-i-linked ship in the Red Sea.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Continued calls for cease fire, blaming Israel for genocidal attacks on hospitals, etc.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The drama continues to center on various hospitals now that IDF has entered and is in the process of securing them. The location and exploration of the main bunker complexes is still in its early stages, but The Hamas command bunker below the hospital is reportedly as deep as 200 feet and consists of multiple levels with deep tunnels reaching out to other areas in N Gaza.
I’ve got mixed thoughts on the alleged pending hostage exchange and operational hold. From the announced stance by Israel, it falls far short of its stated demands - full, unconditional release of the hostages. It would give Hamas 5 days to regroup - and the demand that no IAF surveillance be conducted as well - covering repositioning and rearming Hamas and affiliated groups into better positions. Same would allow them to reload/repair rocket launching sites for a post “pause’ rocket blitz.
50 is also only about 1/4th of the total number of hostages, permitting Hamas to play the hostages for operational ‘pauses’ / battle delay for months. I can’t see how such a deal will help Israel’s tactical and strategic goals. Recent clearly documented evidence that Hamas has and continues to use hospitals, mosques, schools, etc for military purposes has blunted the lies of the Hamas support MSM, so the PR press of recent has crested for the moment.
Lots yet to play out. Hamas has also commonly played this game to get some hopes up only to come up with some excuse to cancel an exchange and find a way to blame Israel - psyops against the drive of the Jewish people to get their loved ones back.
We will see just how this plays out today.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Central / South America General-
Javier Milei, the new president of Argentina. One item that he has brought back to the radar screen is ownership of the Falkland Islands / Malvinas.
A few years ago, sometimes I would shop at one of those places where you buy the bags... My rule of thumb was one bag for every ten dollars spent. And it wasn't even that long ago. You're right about Yellen's message not selling - because it's not true. Democrats think all of us are stupid.
Thanks. BUMP.
Tomorrow being Thanksgiving, don’t expect a post unless something really big happens. May you all have a blessed and peaceful day remembering to be thankful for all that God has done for you the past year.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The Biden administration is set to back a plan that would crush the coal industry at the upcoming United Nations (UN) climate summit, Reuters reported on Tuesday.
The U.S. will reportedly support a French plan to get the countries of the world to ban private financing of coal-fired power plants during the upcoming UN conference, known as COP28, according to Reuters. The plan is likely to drive a rift between countries like the U.S. and France and those like China and India, which are reliant on coal to feed their economies cheap and reliable electricity.
The proposed plan would allow the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to set coal standards for private financing companies that would allow regulators, ratings agencies and non-governmental organizations to track coal financing, according to Reuters.
Beyond the reported plan to strangle private financing for coal plants, delegates are expected to discuss the shape and stipulations of a so-called “loss and damages” fund, a de facto international climate reparations program, at COP28. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry recently suggested that the U.S. will pay “millions” into the fund, a number that many activists and representatives of poorer countries find to be inadequate. China is unlikely to have any significant obligations to the fund because it is classified as a developing country, despite its status as the world’s top emitter and second-largest economy.
COP28 is scheduled to begin on Nov. 30 and run through Dec. 12.
OBSERVATION - Very significant move toward international controls superseding national laws and priorities. The ‘climate reparations’ just a rebranding of steeling from rich countries to fluff the pockets of tyrants so poor countries.
Economy –
Earlier this year, California passed regulations that would turn the trucking industry upside down. New mandates for zero emissions trucks would disrupt the industry, raise shipping costs, and put trucking companies out of business. A group including 19 states and several trucking organizations recently filed suit to block the California regulation.
California’s Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) Regulation goes into effect on January 1, 2024. The ACF requires that truck operators buy only Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) trucks for medium-duty and heavy-duty trucking operations as early as January 2024. The ACF also requires that trucking companies transition their fleets to 100 percent ZEV trucks by 2035 to 2042, depending upon class of truck.
OBSERVATION - Cross reference with “Globalism / Great Reset” as well. Due to kalifornia’s skewed, oversized population and economic status, it has been able to dictate a lot of rules across the nation. Early on it was to push its air quality emission standards across the entire auto industry. Recently, pork and poultry producers were forced into changing their operations to meet Kalifornian demand for humane raising of these critters - giving them more room and other niceties. The lawsuit to reverse that failed - basically the courts said you have the freedom to sell to other markets. But the kalifornia market is the 800 lb gorilla in the room. This new scheme will hit trucking massively - as well as our pocket books as shipping rates will likely skyrocket and delivery networks less reliable.
Notably - this ties into the globalist scheme to use climate change laws to dictate life to us lesser beings, removing another factor of freedom.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The military leadership at the Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota recently sent a text message to service members warning them that their “continued service” could be jeopardized if they attended a local rally featuring a speaker from an organization that has historically supported former President Donald Trump.
The text message, acquired by Fox News, was sent to Minot Air Force Base staff and warned, “Leaders, please exercise caution if downtown this weekend.” The Air Force base’s commander cautioned service personnel in a text message that “participation with groups such as Turning Point Action could jeopardize their continued service in the United States military.”
OBSERVATION - Listed under CW2 because this action furthers the growing divide between red and blue being forced on the military. The airbase later issued a very lame mea culpa saying that the message was sent ‘outside official channels’ and was allegedly not properly vetted as a result. The USAF command has demonstrably been increasingly liberal in its leadership since the 0bama purges and this is just another example. I want to see who actually sent this piece of crap out and have them raked over the coals at the very least - since the pampered princes in the Pentagon won’t do jack about it.
***
(FO) In a letter to the Department of Justice (DOJ), Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR) urged Attorney General Merrick Garland to release information on the Hemisphere phone surveillance program that allows federal, state, and local law enforcement to request searches of trillions of U.S. phone records without a warrant.
Wyden said he has “serious concerns about the legality of this program,” and materials Wyden already obtained from the DOJ contain “troubling information that would justifiably outrage many Americans” and other lawmakers.
OBSERVATION - Interesting that a democrat is leading the charge for accountability of another massive intel collection operation against the American citizenry absent due legal process / warrants.
***
Speaking of surveillance -
Sonya Labosco, Director of the Air Marshals National Council said Air Marshalls are quietly following Americans who flew into the DC area around January 6, 2021.
“We’re not flying right now. The only missions that we are doing are ‘Quiet Skies’ missions and those are missions that are following the January 2021 people,” Labosco said. “So we’re either on the border for illegal immigrants or we’re following folks from January 2021. We’re not doing our regular missions where we’re out there looking for the bad guys so for now most flights you’re not gonna have Air Marshalls.”
The Fox News host was stunned: “What do you mean that you’re following January 2021 people? What does that mean?
“That means our primary mission is a little group called ‘quiet skies’ – it’s a mission called quiet skies that we’re following people that flew into the national capital region in January 2021 and they did not have to go to the Capitol or the rally and you’ve been put on a specific list that TSA has now assigned Air Marshals to follow these people who have not had any type of criminal investigation – they haven’t committed a crime, but yet three years later we are following the same individuals day in and day out,” Labosco said.
“Well, they didn’t even have to be at the Capitol…they could have just flown into the capital region so anyone who was there for a job interview or to visit family. We even have a gentleman who was there for a funeral. They’ve been put on this domestic terrorist list just because of their geographic location to Washington DC,” Labosco said.
OBSERVATION - Increasing levels of covert govt surveillance of the population is not a good sign of a health republic. I would think that the deep state has developed such a broad and intrusive system that would make the KGB and Stasi blush.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
As the war between Israel and Hamas rages on, experts at the New York State Intelligence Center have warned that the Empire state could be a potential target for Islamic terrorist attacks.
According to CBS News, the center noted in its threat assessment that evidence pointed to an “increasing terror threat to NYS.”
“The expansion of Israeli operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip and increase in civilian casualties raises the likelihood that violent extremist threat actors will seek to conduct attacks against targets in the West, with New York State being a focus,” the report explained. “Terrorist messaging has placed focus on attacking ‘soft targets’ such as protests, group gatherings, and other public events.”
The report also noted that in recent weeks, both antisemitic and anti-Palestinian sentiments online have helped fuel an increase in hate crimes targeting Jews and Muslims alike.
OBSERVATION - the inclusion of “anti-palestinian” act is a sop to the pro-hamas islamic radicals.
IN RELATED - I would be on high alert tomorrow for the Macy’s parade with the aggressiveness the pro-Hamas elements (as well as the transtifas) have shown recently. I don’t have any direct intel, but these protestors have shown that they are willing to disrupt in a large way and the coverage of the parade would give them a platform to spread their so called message.
The most likely action would be to block/interrupt the parade. Worse case scenario, though at this stage less likely would be a violent attack under the cover/disruptions of a protest designed to cause casualties or deaths.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US military will deploy new medium-range missile systems to the Pacific region next year for the purpose of “deterring” China from invading Taiwan, the commander of US Army Pacific Forces said on Saturday.
According to Defense One, Gen. Charles Flynn said the deployment will include a land-based version of the Tomahawk missile, which was previously banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a treaty with Russia the US withdrew from in 2019.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Legal pundits are noting that Musk/X has a really good case against Media Matters and have a high likelihood of prevailing.
Congress critters settling in on another break over thanksgiving.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden’s birthday pic with the massive flaming cake hasn’t helped his image of being physical capable of a second term.
Illegal Immigration –
Anger as illegals are getting preference in some blue sanctuary city/states in getting Thanksgiving food and the like over US citizen homeless and veterans.
China –
One of China’s Yuzhao-class Amphibious Transport Docks was filmed belching black smoke columns while underway yesterday. However, discussion from the OSINT community also suggested that this could be part of a smoke screen / deception test to either help obscure the vessel or make opponents think it has been disabled. China has yet to make any statement on it.
North/South Korea –
North Korea claims it has successfully put a military spy satellite into space, after two earlier attempts failed this year. South Korea says it has not confirmed yet if the satellite is operational. But it says it believes the North received help from Russia.
Following the launch, South Korea announced it would resume surveillance along its border with the North, thereby taking steps to suspend parts of a deal agreed by the two countries in 2018 aimed at lowering military tensions.
Japan –
With the launch of a NK spy satellite, the Japanese government briefly issued an emergency warning, telling residents in Okinawa to take shelter. North Korea had on Monday told Japan it intended to attempt its satellite launch again. It had tried twice this year and failed - in May and August.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Much of eastern Ukraine will see their first accumulating snowfall of the season next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 of 14 Shahed drones overnight.
Russia continues to launch attacks in the Avdiyivka area, with little to no gain, but very heavy losses.
Kherson Axis -
Hold this latest report on Krynky at arms length as its source is Russian Milblogger WarGonzo’s early morning update “In the Kherson-Crimean direction, Ukrainian marines, supported by artillery, attacked from Krynky on the left bank of the Dnipro and entered the forest belt near this village. The goal is to reach the M-14 highway. If success is achieved, the RF Armed Forces will have serious problems.”
This adds up to other sources claiming Ukrainian troops are pushing forward through the forest and advanced already. Significant but not major action at this stage, but could be setting things up for a later, much larger push towards Crimea.
Outlook —-
Weather dominated lull in most of the fighting, but that isn’t really stopping all of it. However, nothing significant expected in the near term.
Big note that though there are some parallels between Avdiyivka and Bakhmut, this winter will be far worse for Russia. No Wagner shock troops to lead the assault and Ukraine has cluster munitions. This has made the Russian ‘meat’ attacks receive far more casualties than Bakkmut. Finally, as the winter wears on, the effects of the cold and wet will grind down Russian forces even more, further restricting the numbers of bodies available to assault the well prepared Ukrainian positions.
Europe / NATO General –
Tomorrow there is a general election in the Netherlands. The anti-immigration PVV party just surged into first place. This would put firebrand Geert Wilders on a potential path to become Prime Minister of the Netherlands. Wilders promises to make the Netherlands great again shutting down the border and leaving the EU.
OBSERVATION - This may also place the Netherlands on a further collision course with the EU regarding carbon reduction goals. I’ve noted that the current govt has been pushing to eliminate the vast majority of the farms in the country to meet EU climate change goals. Such a move would completely devastate the industry which supplies a considerable amount of food to EU countries. Combined with the growing pushback to the uncontrolled flood of ‘immigrants’ from N Africa and the Middle east and the ensuing chaos they are bringing could well be the catalyst for Wilder’s victory.
***
EU member states are discussing whether to restrict travel by Russian diplomats after the CzechRepublic complained that potential spies were evading monitoring thanks to the EU’s borderless zone. Czech Republic wants Russian diplomats to receive visas & residence permits that only allow travel within the host country, and not the rest of the Schengen area.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- The Israeli cabinet approves a hostage deal with Hamas, PM office says
- IDF continues to probe deeper into the bunker complex beneath the Shifa Hospital site.
GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli has agreed to a hostage / prisoner exchange and an operational pause. Agreement paves the way for the release of 50 hostages, mostly women and children. Israel will reportedly release 150 to 300 female and teenage Palestinians prisoners “with no blood on their hands.” Netanyahu also told the ministers during the cabinet meeting that as part of the agreement the Red Cross will visit hostages that will not be released and provide them with medicine, according to the Prime Minister’s office. The IDF, Shin Bet, and the Mossad “have made it completely clear in their professional assessment, that the security of our forces will be ensured during the pause and that the intelligence effort will be maintained in those days,” he continued. “They have made it clear that not only will the war effort not be harmed, it will enable the IDF to prepare for the continuation of the fighting.”
The first batch of hostages is expected to be released as early as Thursday, with Hamas reportedly having agreed to release 12 to 13 hostages each day of the four-day truce. “The release of every additional 10 hostages will result in one additional day in the pause,” the government added.
Israel’s Channel 12 News reported that the deal will see the release of 30 children, eight mothers and 12 women held by Hamas. The terror group claimed that it could not immediately locate 10 additional children taken from southern Israel on Oct. 7.
“After the hostage deal is implemented, we will continue dismantling Hamas while respecting humanitarian law on the ground,” wrote Jonathan Conricus, Israel Defense Forces spokesman, a little after 3 a.m. in Israel. “We will remain vigilant during the pause and use the time to prepare for future operations.”
Hamas previously released four hostages for what it said were “humanitarian reasons.” Judith Raanan, 59, and her 17-year-old daughter, Natalie, were freed on Oct. 20. Nurit Cooper, 79, and Yocheved Lifshitz, 85, were let go three days later.
Moreover, IDF special forces late last month rescued Pvt. Ori Megidish from Gaza.
Last week, Israel Defense Forces soldiers operating in the vicinity of Shifa Hospital in Gaza City recovered the bodies of Cpl. Noa Marciano, 19, and Yehudit Weiss, 65. Both women were murdered during their captivity, according to the military.
Islamic Jihad spokesperson, Abu Hamza, claims an Israeli hostage has died. The group did not say how the hostage passed away
The Israeli army says it has breached the blast door at the end of the tunnel discovered underneath Gaza’s Shifa Hospital. It publishes two images, one showing the open door and the other further inside the tunnel
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continued to strike targets in Gaza overnight.
Most current map of the situation on the ground -
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F_f5HXeWYAA5LZA?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah issued a statement claiming responsibility for 12 separate attacks today along the Lebanon-Israel border
***
Hezbollah reportedly will adhere to the cease fire period along with Hamas.
***
Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen is warning the United Nations Security Council that failure to adopt the 1701 resolution calling for the disarmament of Hezbollah could lead to an expanded regional war.
“For the good of regional stability and to avoid further escalation, the next session of the UN Security Council must adopt a totally different approach in order to end the dangerous violations by Hezbollah and other terrorist groups on the border,” Cohen wrote.
According to the Times of Israel, “UN Security Council resolution 1701 brought to an end the Second Lebanon War in 2006, and called for the disarmament of all non-state armed forces in Lebanon, as well as for the region between the Israel-Lebanon border and the Litani River to be freed of all armed forces other than the Lebanese army and the UN’s peacekeeping mission UNIFIL.”
“These clauses of the resolution were never implemented, and Hezbollah has become a heavily armed terror militia,” the Israeli news organization explained.
The Foreign Minister’s comments come after Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Sunday informed reporters that Hezbollah has fired over 1,000 munitions at Israel since the October 7th Hamas attack.
WEST BANK——————————-
IDF/police continue to seek out and arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Pro-Iranian militias launched an attack on US forces at Shadadi military base in southern Hasakah, Syria
***
On the morning of November 22 in Iraq, U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) forces conducted discrete, precision strikes against two facilities in Iraq. The strikes were in direct response to the attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces by Iran and Iran-backed groups, including the one in Iraq on November 21, which involved use of close-range ballistic missiles.
***
The GALAXY LEADER (9237307) is reportedly in the anchorage at Hodeidah, Yemen , having arrive there on Nov 20th.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Police in Germany conducted raids and arrested more than a dozen individuals who were found to have publicly shown support for Hamas and antisemitism on social media platforms.
The raids, which took place in the German state of Bavaria, primarily focused on the city of Munich. A total of 17 individuals, ranging in age between 18 and 62, were arrested.
NOTE - I was stationed 5 years in Augsburg GE, just a little ways west of Munich. Sad to see that such Nazism still exists there as Bavaria was a stronghold of nazism in WW2.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The impending hostage release and 4 day operational pause is on the cutting edge today. Hamas has in the past done what it could to sabotage releases and may well try to instigate an incident that it could blame on Israel. However, they also appear to be desperate to get some of the pressure off their forces. Early demands by Hamas was for 300+ prisoners to be released - that was dropped to around 150 and only those not convicted of murder or other acts that placed ‘blood on their hands’.
The exchange is expected to start on Thursday.
One other factor that has come out is that Hamas apparently has lost track of the hostages taken by PIJ and other affiliated terror groups along with those taken by Gazan ‘civilians’ themselves. This reportedly covers about 50 civilian hostages.
In some respects, this also allows Israel to discover and prepare to exploit any intelligence finds as they continue to penetrate into the Hamas command bunker beneath Shifa Hospital.
I expect that the IDF will resume combat operations at the end of the 4 day (or potentially longer) period in a very aggressive manner. Through the whole negotiations Israel made it clear that destruction of Hamas was the end goal.
I also expect that Iranian supported militias will continue attacks on US bases in Syria and Iraq as they are separated by distance from Israel and does not directly involve them.
The US OTOH appears to be becoming more aggressive in its airstrikes against these militias which in the long run is a good thing - strength is THE deterrent in the moslem world. Iran will be reluctant to do anything against the US in support of the militias.
Thanks. BUMP!
This sounds a lot like the "pre-crime, Thought Police" mentioned in dystopian literature and in many movies.
The fact that TSA has assigned air marshals to do this surveillance, and not their job to protect air flights, seems misguided a misapplication of Federal man power.
Also, the fact that reports are that this program has been going on for three years - on non-criminals is nothing less than intimidation of the general populace.
Furthermore, it appears to be a violation of Constitutional civil rights whereby people are presumed to be guilty, and now have to prove their innocence.
Little wonder why some people think that we are living in a 'Police State' which is managed like a 'Banana Republic'.
Though I didn’t post yesterday, I always screen my various information/intel feeds. I’ve included some key ones from yesterday and rolled into todays post.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The U.N. General Assembly has voted overwhelmingly for the organization to develop a global tax framework, despite last-minute attempts to derail the plan from wealthy countries including the United Kingdom, United States, and the entire European Union bloc.
In what advocates hailed as a “historic victory,” countries voted 125 to 48 to adopt a resolution tabled by Nigeria last month on behalf of African member states, calling for a U.N. tax convention that could drastically change how global tax rules are set.
Nine countries abstained from the vote, which was held in New York on Nov. 22.
The OECD (a group of 38 mostly high-income countries that includes the U.K. and the U.S. ) counts among its achievements the 2021 global tax deal between more than 130 countries, which included a minimum 15% corporate tax rate for multinational corporations. At the time, it was hailed by negotiators as a landmark step towards curbing corporate tax avoidance, but its implementation has been beset by delays.
OBSERVATION - Remember the motto “No taxation without representation”. This taxation scheme has been in the works for a while. What is interesting is that as with other globalist timelines, 2024 is being targeted for things to go into effect.
Economy –
Some reports that Black Friday is not generating the turnout businesses have hoped for. Last year saw a similar slow start that picked up later in the day and shopping season.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Thursday, pro-Palestinian protestors took over the Macy parade route in New York and attempted to shut it down. Some even glued themselves to the pavement. They were joined by anti-oil activists as well.
The Seven Circles Alliance, reportedly organized the protest, and posted a video of their members being hauled off by the NYPD. They claimed that the protest was “In an urgent call to action, Seven Circles Alliance, a coalition of climate, social justice and political activists.
NYC PD quickly responded and removed the protestors. One source indicated that there were 10 arrested.
OBSERVATION - Quick response by the NYD indicates that they were ready for disruptions. No word on how the hands of the glued protestors are feeling today.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
After initial alarms of terrorism, more data has come out to rule out the explosion of the car at the Rainbow Bridge US/Canadian border crossing being such. Investigators believe a New York man and his wife were the two people killed in a car that crashed and exploded at a US-Canada border crossing near Niagara Falls on Wednesday, law enforcement sources say, and the FBI sees no link to terrorism.
Investigators believe the man who died had plans to attend a KISS concert in Canada, but when it was canceled he went to a casino in the US instead. The crash occurred sometime after the couple left the casino, the sources said.
NOTE - this places the vehicle on the way BACK to Canada.
The car was clearly seen on CCTV traveling around 80-100 mph, hitting a curb while apparently going around the Customs gate, flying thru the air until impacting near a secondary inspection area. Still some discussion over just why the vehicle exploded in such a manner upon impact.
***
Palestinian protesters have targeted the home of a Jewish organization president in Brentwood, California during Thanksgiving. Masked activists threw smoke grenades at the Jewish man’s house, poured fake blood and placed fake baby body bags on his driveway and lawn.
The activists are from the ‘Peoples City Council’ activism group and tweeted that they were giving the Jewish organization president a ‘holiday wake up call.’
OBSERVATION - Growing trend of violence being directed towards jewish individuals and organizations.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
On Nov. 21, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, in coordination with the Armed Forces of the Philippines, began joint maritime and aerial patrols in the South China Sea.
The joint patrols aim to “enhance regional security and foster a seamless partnership with the United States in safeguarding our shared interests,” Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos said.
OBSERVATION - Key question is will US vessels enter strongly disputed islands like the ones China is attempting to blockade Philippines naval supply vessels from.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
Scientists have raised concern over a mysterious “pneumonia like” illness that has left hospitals in China “overwhelmed with sick children”.
An alert was issued through ProMed – a large surveillance database which monitors disease outbreaks– warning of an epidemic of “undiagnosed pneumonia” in children.
Taiwanese news website FTV News said that children were presenting to hospitals in Beijing and Liaoning – 500 miles northeast – with symptoms including a high fever and inflammation of the lungs, but no cough.
A Beijing citizen told the outlet: “Many, many (children) are hospitalised. They don’t cough and have no symptoms. They just have a high temperature and many develop pulmonary nodules.”
He added: “Now you are not allowed to report to school. If you have any symptoms such as fever, cold, cough and then you are hospitalised, you can ask for leave.”
Local media reported that the lobby of Dalian Children’s Hospital in Liaoning province was also “full of sick children” receiving intravenous drips.
A staff member of the hospital said: “Patients have to wait in line for 2 hours, and we are all in the emergency department and there are no general outpatient clinics.”
The Covid-19 outbreak was initially flagged up to global scientists in late December 2019 via a ProMed alert in late December, which had similarly warned of a respiratory illness sweeping through the city of Wuhan.
An editor’s note posted by ProMed on Wednesday said that the FTV News report suggested a “widespread outbreak of an undiagnosed respiratory illness”.
OBSERVATION - This looks like a real thing. Let me remind you all that it was also ProMed in December of 2019 that first alerted the world to a virus outbreak in China that would later be called COVID. Key concern - wuhan was basically a non-player with children, in the vast, vast majority of the cases being as strong a a normal cold or flu. This bug seems to be trying to change that - targeting children.
This is so recent that other medical organizations have little to go on, so it isn’t a given that drugs like Ivermectin would be helpful. If this does explode in a pandemic manner, fully expect the wuhan protocols to be forced upon us once again.
Biden / Harris Watch –
For the first time ever, biden’s presidential proclamation for Thanksgiving makes absolutely no mention of God.
China –
On Nov. 21, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, in coordination with the Armed Forces of the Philippines, began joint maritime and aerial patrols in the South China Sea.
The joint patrols aim to “enhance regional security and foster a seamless partnership with the United States in safeguarding our shared interests,” Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos said.
The joint patrols are to be conducted on the sea and in the air in the West Philippine Sea, an area of the South China Sea that includes the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. However, China claims the area as its own, with recent maps showing a 10-dash line covering the entire South China Sea, as well as Taiwan. Aside from constructing artificial islands with military installations on them, Beijing has also repeatedly harassed Philippine fishermen and swarmed the area with its maritime militia. Within the last year, several provocative incidents have occurred between Manila and Beijing in the West Philippine Sea.
North/South Korea –
North Korea said it would send stronger armed forces and new weapons at its border with South Korea, state media reported, after Seoul suspended part of a 2018 military agreement between the two Koreas in protest of Pyongyang’s launch of a spy satellite.
In a statement carried by the KCNA news agency, North Korea’s defense ministry said it would restore all military measures it had halted under the deal aimed at de-escalating tension between the two Koreas.
The suspended North-South pact, known as the Comprehensive Military Agreement, was signed at a 2018 summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and then South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/north-korea/2023/11/22/id/1143329/
OBSERVATION - NK has released a photo of Guam that they say their satellite captured. The image showed the whole island, making it hard from a general sense to know what level of resolution the system has. Even modern, commercial satellites have developed pretty good resolution, so it would be safe to say that it has at least that level.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Economic Impact –
Russia is having maintenance on passenger jets done in Iran and Russia, undocumented, without proper parts, without tracking, and without quality control. This is due principally to sanctions prohibiting authorized parts and services for Russia airliners.
This means that aircraft will lose certification to fly to MANY countries. so even after sanctions are lifted some day there is no way to get the aircraft ready to fly to the EU, US, or any other modern country with modern aircraft regulations. The situation is allegedly so that that some claim it would have to probably buy a entire new fleet.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20 -40 degree range with rain and/or snow across the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine launched one of the biggest drone attacks on the Moscow-annexed Crimean Peninsula since the full-scale war that started with Russia’s invasion 21 months ago, Russian officials said Friday.
Avdiivka -
Ukraine estimates that as of a couple of weeks ago, Russia had assembled a force of 40,000 mostly reserves/call-ups for the fight to take Avdiivka. Fighting here has been the main source of Russian causalities being reported, with upwards of 1000/day being casualties. Do the math, that 40K force may well have been attritted down to 30k in the course of that two weeks - 25%. With the mud limiting armor/tanks, most of the current attacks are dismounted with little to no armor support - making them vulnerable to Ukraine artillery.
This recent wave of attacks on Avdiivka began on Oct. 10, using heavy bombardments and reportedly taking heavy losses.
Kherson Axis -
Ukrainian artillery hit and destroyed armored vehicles and assault groups of Russian forces south of Krynky as Ukraine forces continue to expand their beachhead.
Russian Territory –
Ukraine drone suspected of hitting a power substation near Moscow causing a large power outage
Outlook —-
While some of the action may appear to be spectacular, gains by both sides have been marginal. Muddy conditions are getting real bad, real fast. Russia is gambling that they can get away with shifting a lot of resources and manpower to the Adviivka region without Ukraine sensing weaknesses in Russian defenses elsewhere - being bogged down by the mud as well.
Much of the fighting over the next couple months will be focused on establishing tactical terrain advantage from which to kick off winter offensives on frozen ground, when cross country mobility is generally available again until spring.
Soon the deeper, war of attrition and civilian power grids will take higher priority.
Europe / NATO General –
Patience with the mobs of immigrants arriving from N Africa and the middle east has exploded in another European country - this time Ireland. Violent riots broke out after an N African migrant stabbed 5 at a school in Dublin. Within hours a massive crowd was rioting. Irish rioters set the Holiday Inn Express Hotel in Dublin on fire. The government is using the hotel to house asylum seekers.
Irish police officials are blaming soccer hooligans “driven by far-right ideology” for the anti-migrant outburst. Supporters are demanding the Irish government curb their migration plan, which still aims to take in refugees and asylum seekers from the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.
OBSERVATION - Early prediction, given the strong anti-migrant sentiments that have been growing the past couple months in Europe, I expect that civil disturbances will be on the increase, with locals turning on these migrants and govts forced to either follow the will of the people and begin mass deportations or fight against its citizens.
***
IN RELATED - The nationalist party PVV has just become the largest party in the Netherlands with 37 seats! Geert Wilders riding an anti-immigrant, anti-
WEF agenda is poised to become the new PM. In addition to the move to begin mass deportations, the attack on dutch farmers looks to be abated.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Operational ‘pause’ sets in after a day delay.
- Hostages selected for release at 4 PM Israel time.
- Some gun battles persisted past the deadline, but so far is holding
- Rocket attack alert shortly after the deadline was a false alert.
GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli media reports that the release of the children will be delayed 24 hours because the agreement was not signed yet by Hamas and Qatar.
Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear on Wednesday that the ‘pause’ applies only to Gaza. Hamas leadership elsewhere, Netanyahu declared, are fair game at any time, and he has ordered the Mossad to go after the two Hamas leaders living high on the hog elsewhere.
***
Western media mocked Israel when it said there are tunnels under Shifa hospital. Today they are eating crow as news crews were granted initial visits to the extensive bunker complex - and there are portions still being investigated and cleared.
***
IDF found personal items in the Shifa Hospital bunker complex that are linked to the hostages.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
An operational ‘pause’ in the fighting in Gaza took effect at 0700 local this morning. So far it has held. Netanyahu reiterates that once the hostages have been exchanged, the war will continue.
First group of hostages to be released at 4 PM Israel time.
In total, Israel will receive 50 female and children hostages held by Hamas. In exchange, Hamas is requiring that Israel releases 150 prisoners.
The majority of the prisoners being held by Israel are between 17 and 18-years-old. Many of these prisoners are being held in Israel on attempted murder charges.
IRC reports that Hamas refuses to allow representatives to physically visit the hostages as the agreement dictates. Officials told that the IRC would be told what their ‘condigtion’ is by Hamas representatives.
***
Israel arrested the director of Shifa hospital. He stands accused of aid and abetting Hamas in using the hospital for terrorism.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Thursday, Hezbollah claims responsibility for firing 48 rockets at an Israeli army base near Safed. IDF reports that six were intercepted. It is estimated that this is the heaviest barrage from Lebanon since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7.
Hezbollah has claimed 22 attacks against Israeli targets along the Lebanon-Israel border today.
Combat with Hezbollah is not covered under the Hamas Gaza ‘pause’.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IAF airstrikes on probable Hezbollah/Iranian targets.
WEST BANK——————————-
IDF/police continue to seek out and arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists. Action is not affected by the Hamas ‘pause’
Israeli Security forces storm the town of Kafr Qalil, south of Nablus.
Israeli army thwarted weapons smuggling near the Jordanian border. Arms smuggling has been a significant reason for the terrorist-led uprising in the West Bank over the last two and a half years
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Islamic Resistance in Iraq: We targeted the U.S. base in the Al-Omar oil field in Syria in response to the enemy’s crimes in Gaza
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116) shot down multiple one-way attack drones launched from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen, U.S. Central Command announced on X, the site formerly known as Twitter, Wednesday night.
This is the second time Thomas Hudner shot down drones launched from Yemen in two weeks. The guided-missile destroyer also shot down a drone in the Red Sea on Nov. 15, USNI News previously reported.
Thomas Hudner shot down the drone while on patrol in the Red Sea. No injuries or damage were reported. CENTCOM did not provide additional details.
Hudner is part of the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group, but is operating separately from the strike group.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - A lot will depend on if Hamas can maintain their cease fire and promptly deliver the hostages. There is a clause of an exchange of an additional day of ‘pause’ for each 10 hostages released. I doubt Hamas will take up that part of the agreement - except to try to leverage more ‘pause’ without turning over more hostages. Netanyahu has made it clear, the fight is back on once the exchange is finished - and that would include ALL surviving hostages.
The fallout to world media nay sayers in regards to the Shifa and other bunkers grows, but those media sources are putting their best face forward. Some reports Netanyahu is looking at some sort of punitive actions against some for their false reporting.
False reporting source now appears to the Head of the Shifa hospital, who is in Israel custody. International groups that worked with him at Shifa are also under the crosshairs for conspiracy and abetting Hamas actions at Shifa as well as other sites.
Hezbollah increased its attacks on Israel and the momentum suggests that further escalation is possible.
While the ‘pause’ gives Hamas a chance to regroup and re-arm, it also gives Israel time to better process the intelligence it has collected form the captured command bunkers so far as well as to resupply and reposition its forces for resumption of operations.
There is also little doubt that Mossad is tapping into its array of sources to track where the hostages are coming from in Gaza to better focus IDF operations as necessary.
Syria -
IAF launched airstrikes in Damascus area overnight.
***
IDF found personal items in the Shifa Hospital bunker complex that are linked to the hostages.
...
While the ‘pause’ gives Hamas a chance to regroup and re-arm, it also gives Israel time to better process the intelligence it has collected form the captured command bunkers so far as well as to resupply and reposition its forces for resumption of operations.
There is also little doubt that Mossad is tapping into its array of sources ...
Israel will benefit more from the pause than Hamas because the Israelis/Mossad are smarter, more capable and on the side of righteousness.
Economy –
Still waiting to hear on Black Friday numbers, but speculation I’ve been reading suggests that is has been ‘black’ with far lower sales than hoped for.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Women’s Declaration International (WDI), a group of volunteer women from across the world dedicated to protecting women’s sex-based rights, were trying to hold an event in support of women’s rights at a public library in Portland, when they were attacked by male Transtifa activists - with several women being sent to the hospital.
OBSERVATION - While a relatively small event, this furthers my point that the Transtifa elements are more inclined towards violence than your general “-tifa” elements.
***
Pro-Hamas protests were conducted across the country - in many instances in an effort to disrupt traditional Black Friday shopping.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Follow up on the initially reported car explosion at the Rainbow Bridge border crossing. It is being investigated that the car - a $300K Bentley- suffered accelerator getting stuck. Similar was a subject of a recall earlier in the year, but reportedly did’t include the model that crashed.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
Following up on this new China outbreak. Chinese authorities say it is a bacterial infection, Mycoplasma pneumonia. Other sources in China say it could be new strains of viruses.
WHO has now issued a call for all of China to institute masks, social distancing and quarantining. wuhan 2.0
RELATED -
Chinese state newspaper Global Times acknowledged a surge in respiratory disease in the country, particularly among children, which has alarmed international observers – but blamed it on an “immunity gap” in the population, caused by China’s brutal “zero-covid” lockdowns.
W.H.O. insisted in a statement on Thursday that it had no evidence of any new diseases circulating in China.
“In the current outbreak of respiratory illness, the reported symptoms are common to several respiratory diseases and, as of now, at the present time, Chinese surveillance and hospital systems report that the clinical manifestations are caused by known pathogens in circulation,” the W.H.O. said in a statement. “Mycoplasma pneumoniae is a common respiratory pathogen and a common cause of paediatric pneumonia, and is readily treated with antibiotics.”
China’s mandatory lockdowns, forced imprisonment of thousands of people in quarantine camps, and other measures against the Wuhan coronavirus could have led to the nation’s children being exposed to fewer diseases on a regular schedule – and left them with weaker immunity.
OBSERVATION - A similar observations has been expressed here in the US for a couple years now. The childhood years are critical to the development of immunity to common bugs and the two years of lockdown/social distancing has denied a lot of that. That said - we are not out of the woods on what this is or potential impacts here.
***
US attorney Tom Renz says unclassified DARPA documents confirm SARS-CoV-2 was created by the EcoHealth Alliance at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, coordinated by Peter Daszak, and was designed to be deliberately toxic, resulting in 6.5 million deaths.
OBSERVATION - I’m trying to see confirmation on the authenticity of the document in today’s age of fakes. If true, it was clear that by the time of the document - 2021 - the govt had full knowledge of this virus.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden called for Americans to “come together,” called conservative opinions “crazy MAGA nonsense” on same day
***
Both Harris and biden have been getting roasted on the interwebs for their thanksgiving posts showing both cooking on gas stoves while their administration pushes to ban all.
***
A legend in his own mind, biden is now claiming that the reason Hamas brutally attacked Israel is because he was close to ushering in peace in the Middle East.
Illegal Immigration –
A recent report has exposed a staggering surge in Chinese nationals attempting illegal entry into the United States via the southern border, with over 24,000 individuals intercepted in 2023 alone.
This number surpasses the combined total of Chinese migrants apprehended over the past 10 years, marking an unprecedented spike in this demographic’s attempts to enter the country illegally.
OBSERVATION - Some attribute the surge to very bad economic conditions, but there is a strong concern that these are more of a unconventional warfare threat to the US should China invade Taiwan.
***
The massive illegal immigrant problem in blue cities like New York, Chicago and Boston is about to get much worse. It’s one thing to have people sleeping on sidewalks and in tents in the spring and summer. Winter is a different story.
Now that cold weather is coming, these cities are starting to panic about where they’re going to put all these people.
In harsh winters, cities sometimes have a hard time finding places to put all the snow once it has been plowed. Finding warm and dry places for people to live is a much bigger challenge.
OBSERVATION - Pre-illegal surge, these cities had their hand full with just the generic homeless. Now with enhanced numbers of homeless due to the biden economy (or lack thereof) and illegals the matter is orders of magnitude worse. The fuse is lit as these cities are giving increasing priority to the illegals over homeless citizens.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
Kerch Bridge update –
RUMINT - Russia is discussing construction of an underwater tunnel that would connect Russia and temporarily occupied Crimea (with the help of private Chinese companies). This was initially discussed by Russia before the Kerch bridge project was started. Now given the bridge has been hit twice, the move to a more ‘secure’ crossing means is being considered
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20 -40 degree range with rain and/or snow across the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched the largest drone attack against the Kyiv region since the start of the war. Overnight, A total of 75 Shahed’s were launched of which 74 were shot down. At least six regions were affected by the attack, but most focused on the Kyiv region. In addition, a single Kh-59 missile was destroyed in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Outlook —-
Mega drone attack. What’s missing are the more modern cruise missiles launched by sea and air. The Black Sea is currently in the midst of a very severe storm with massive waves being reported. That likely keep the missile cruiser in port (along with fears of Ukraine seaborne drones). The Russian strategic bombers continue to remain silent and on the ground as well.
The success of the Ukraine ADA was remarkable, but then Russia attacked the beehive swarm of the ADA defense and not outlying areas with lower density of systems. Russia is also painting the drones black to make them less visible using their night attacks.
Mud rules ground operations.
OSINT and other analysts are noting that the Russian artillery support is getting even worse. Initially had an greater than 10 to 1 advantage, it is now down closer to parity due to a number of reasons
- Ukraine hunter / killer drone teams prioritizing artillery targets
- Ukraine far better counter battery fire
- Western artillery outranging Russian tubes
- Russia having to rely more and more on WW2 vintage D20- and D30 towed artillery to replace the self propelled units
Russian milbloggers continually bemoan that they no longer have massive artillery support for their ground attacks - multiplying troop losses. N Korean munitions have a bad reputation too and have reportedly killed many Russians. Loss of artillery during the season of mud leaves the attacking Russian forces wide open to Ukraine fire of all sorts.
Europe / NATO General –
Tensions in Ireland are running high in Dublin for the 2nd straight night. Violence and damage at a minimum.
OBSERVATION - I wonder why they are focusing of destroying businesses - and not directly assaulting the immigrants they claim to abhor?
***
Estonia deploys its military forces to start building barriers on border crossings with Russia to stop illegal migrants from crossing the border.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- First round of hostage - terrorist exchanges conducted. Second round expected
- Operational ‘pause’ remains intact.
GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas terrorists released 25 hostages on Friday morning.
- 13 Israeli children captured during October 7 raid
- 12 Thai nationals captured by the terror group during their brutal raid inside Israel.
39 Palestinian prisoners — women and children in both cases were released in exchange.
Hamas is still holding around 215 other hostages
Second round of exchanges expected today. Israeli authorities say 14 hostages held by Hamas will be released on Saturday.
As part of the Qatar-brokered deal, Israel will release 42 Palestinian prisoners
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Operation pause holds.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight drone from Lebanon shot down as well as a Hezbollah SAM shot down by IDF missiles.
WEST BANK——————————-
IDF/police continue to seek out and arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists. Action is not affected by the Hamas ‘pause’
Palestine TV: The Israeli army shot two rioters during clashes in Qabatiya, south of Jenin
Israeli Security Forces storm the Shuafat camp in Jerusalem.
NOTE - these are not tented compounds as the term ‘camp’ would imply, but constructed buildings as found in the region.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
AP reports that an Israeli-owned container ship, the CMA CGM Symi, has been struck by an Iranian suicide drone in the Indian Ocean.
The AP defense source said the Malta-flagged vessel was suspected to have been targeted by a triangle-shaped, bomb-carrying Shahed-136 drone while in international waters.
“The drone exploded, causing damage to the ship but not injuring any of its crew.”
Additional word that an UI vessel claiming to represent the Yemeni govt challenged another cargo vessel in the Red Sea region.
OBSERVATION - This is the second attack on an internationally flagged vessel - no doubt the attackers were Houthi’s. This may spur the US into launching a strike against Houthi facilities as well as draw the international naval forces into a more focused anti-Houthi operation, expanding their anti-piracy operations.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
International press, while pushing for a more substantial cease fire is being forced to face the brutality of the treatment the hostages received at the hands of Hamas.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - A lot will depend on if Hamas can maintain their cease fire and promptly deliver the hostages. Both Hamas and IDF are using the period to rearm and evaluate their next moves. Israel has the advantage with all the intel material collected so far identifying remaining Hamas command and troop centers that will likely be hit hard once fighting resumes. Hamas is too torn apart to mount much of a defense and likely has had much of its forces retreat into to S Gaza where the human shields they rely upon have moved as well.
One particularly note - Israel parliament is processing a new law mandating the death penalty for acts of terror. The islamic radicals of Hamas et al should take note of the consequences of their attack - next round there may be far fewer prisoners available to exchange for hostages.
Houthi’s are getting bolder and need to be hit in the nose to prevent more chaos towards shipping in general and any ship associated to israel in specific.
Black Swans
Huge ‘sunspot archipelago’ 15 times wider than Earth is spotted on the Sun - and scientists warn it could bombard our planet with solar flares capable of causing devastating blackouts.
OBSERVATION - Solar CME (Coronal Mass Ejections) have hit the earth numerous times in history. When they interact with the earth’s magnetosphere, they create a specific electro-magnet pulse (EMP) that is separate from that created by a nuclear explosion. It is longer duration and is collected by railroads, and power transmission lines - surging the voltage and with the capability of taking out power. NOAA classifies them on their size - and the ones to worry about are those listed as X class.
The most famous of these events is the Carrington event, 1 to 2 September 1859, that caused some telegraph stations and railroad lines to catch fire from the power surge the rails and electrical wired collected. It was rated at an X45 storm.
The most recent example is the March 1989 geomagnetic storm that occurred as part of severe to extreme solar storms during early to mid March 1989, the most notable being a geomagnetic storm that struck Earth on March 13. This geomagnetic storm caused a nine-hour outage of Hydro-Québec’s electricity transmission system. The onset time was exceptionally rapid. It was much smaller than the Carrington event at X7.
The current sunspot cycle has been unusually active and this is a very large complex of sunspots. In theory we would have some warning of an earth directed CME of such magnitude to threaten our power grids. The question is are the power grids ready? The damage would be to the massive transformers as key substations and power plants due to the power surge. It is untested to see if new safeguards will provide adequate protection.
Unlike a potential nuclear EMP, our electronics would be safe as there isn’t enough material to collect and concentrate the spike of power. But houses could be out of power for extensive periods.
As a potential TEOTWAWKI event, knowing a big one is enroute and having preparations in place to mitigate the loss of power and potential impacts if long term is part of it. These are relatively high repeating events, worth knowing about and paying attention.
Unlike a potential nuclear EMP, our electronics would be safe as there isn’t enough material to collect and concentrate the spike of power. But houses could be out of power for extensive periods. As a potential TEOTWAWKI event, knowing a big one is enroute and having preparations in place to mitigate the loss of power and potential impacts ...
Question: what about those propane whole house generators used in Florida for hurricanes - would the chips in those allow them to work after a full carrington hit?
I would initially say yes. The chips are not at risk Like nuke derived emp
Globalism / Great Reset –
Slovakia and Estonia have announced that they will not sign onto the World Health Organization’s Pandemic Treaty.
***
President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, “The euro is key to our European unity. A digital euro, existing alongside cash, would future-proof our currency. It would be safe, easy to use and free of charge.
While the decision whether to issue a digital euro will be taken later, we’re now launching the preparation phase.”
OBSERVATION - The switch to the digital euro still has to face parliamentary approval, but that is likely a done deal, judging from the effort to go forward with a preparatory ‘phase’. In this instance, the announced plan is for the digital and physical to coexist.
Economy –
Black Friday generated $9.8 billion in U.S. online sales, according to Adobe Analytics, up 7.5% from a year ago. The spending bump reflects consumers looking to advantage of big deal days and finding it easier to compare discounts online.
A Mastercard analysis of this year’s Black Friday sales found that in-store sales rose just over 1% versus online sales, which grew by over 8% compared to last year.
OBSERVATION - That bodes ill for brick and mortar stores as the online shopping trend continues.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
A Jewish teacher in New York City was forced to lock herself in an office at her school after hundreds of “radicalized” students began rampaging through the school after they learned that she attended a pro-Israel rally, according to a report.
The incident reportedly happened at Hillcrest High School in Queens around 11 a.m. on Monday and only became public news on Saturday after the New York Post broke the story.
OBSERVATION - Brainwashed kids with behavior reinforced by pro-hamas media continue to show the ugly side of the fallout of the Gaza war, and in another front developing in the overall Balkanization of America.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
Pfizer failed to inform pregnant women participating in its clinical trial for the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine that the clinical trial of a similar vaccine by GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) was halted after a safety signal revealed a potential risk of preterm births leading to neonatal deaths.
Even though Pfizer knew about the potential safety signal and was studying preterm births as an “adverse event of special interest,” it continued to enroll women in its clinical trial and did not fully inform participants of the risks the vaccine may pose to their babies—and in some cases, provided misleading and contradictory statements, according to an investigation by The BMJ. “The BMJ article demonstrates Pfizer’s continued disregard for the law and patient choice,” attorney Thomas Renz told The Epoch Times in an email. “The entire point of informed consent is to ensure a patient can make a decision based on all available information. Rather than embracing the Nuremberg Code and American laws and regulations, Pfizer seems to view informed consent as a barrier to sales—something that causes vaccine hesitancy or drug hesitancy.”
OBSERVATION - I initially noted this issue way back in late 2020 IIRC (one could follow the threads back if interested). In that initial report, Pfizer played word games to mask the nature of the losses of the embryo to spontaneous miscarriage. By playing the word games, they were able to deflect criticism of the dangers of the mRNA jab on pregnant women. Study also went as far to warn women seeking pregnancy that the jab may integer with them getting pregnant as well.
Folks, this is fraud, and as such voids the protection that the EUA gives them. As civil lawsuits mount in the courts over other incidents of fraud, Pfizer and moderna face being wing wiped out of existence as companies. Hopefully actors at the CDC get caught in the back blast as well since they were aware of these things and allowed the jab to continue anyway.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA.) is suggesting that inflation— fueled by President Joe Biden’s Leftist policies— is a lie pushed by conservatives.
This week, Newsom claimed inflation plaguing Americans this holiday season is propaganda and nothing more than a fabrication being pushed by Republicans.
“Things you won’t see on Fox News today,” Newsom posted on social media. “Prices for Thanksgiving are down — from Turkey to air travel.”
The Democrat’s post included a chart showing price changes in items. According to data from the Labor Department, prices for peas, milk, stuffing, pie crusts, turkey, and cranberries have dropped from last year.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/11/gavin-newsom-tries-gaslight-public-suggesting-inflation-is/
OBSERVATION - Gaslighting the public as this cryptopresidental candidate tries to deflect the impact of inflation away from the democrats. An effort that caused greater examination of real inflation and branding his bleat as total nonsense.
***
The Republican-led House Ethics Committee is giving Democratic Rep. Jamaal Bowman a pass.
The committee indicated this week it lacked the votes to appoint a group to look into the Sept. 30 incident in which the New York Democrat — a member of the progressive “squad” — set off a fire alarm as lawmakers prepared to vote on a critical bill to prevent a government shutdown.
“A majority of the Members of the Committee did not agree to establish an [investigative subcommittee] or report to the House regarding Representative Bowman’s conduct,” a brief statement by the committee chairman, Mississippi Republican Michael Guest.
He plead guilty to a misdemeanor charge of falsely pulling a fire alarm. He could have received up to six months in jail, but received a plea deal requiring him to pay a $1,000 fine and apologize in writing to Capitol Police.
OBSERVATION - This should have been a slam dunk. Video debunked every excuse Bowman gave for pulling the alarm. What a bunch of spineless wonders. NOTE - this committee is composed of 5 each republicans and democrats.
Illegal Immigration –
Department of Homeland Security is demanding that border agents use the preferred pronouns of illegal immigrants.
OBSERVATION - Well, I feel safer already.
China –
The Chinese military said Saturday that American naval destroyer USS Hopper entered China’s territorial waters without the approval of the Chinese government.
According to a post on the official WeChat account of the Chinese People Liberation Army’s Southern Theatre Command, the Chinese military deployed its naval and air forces to “track, monitor and warn away” the vessel.
It went on to say the incident “proves that the United States is an out-and-out ‘security risk creator’ in the South China Sea.”
This latest announcement comes days after China accused the Philippines of enlisting “foreign forces” to patrol the South China Sea, referring to joint patrols held since Tuesday by Philippine and U.S. forces.
Earlier this month, the United States and China held “candid” talks on maritime issues, including on the contested South China Sea, and the U.S. side underscored its concerns about “dangerous and unlawful” Chinese actions there, the U.S. State Department said.
https://www.newsmax.com/us/china-south-china-sea-military/2023/11/25/id/1143599/
OBSERVATION - China is unhappy because joint patrols, especially with the US, doesn’t allow them to bully Philippine vessels in the manner they’ve gotten used to.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20 -40 degree range with rain and/or snow across the forecast period. Heavy snow fall in Odesa region, with highways being closed.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 8 of 9 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight, way down from yesterday.
Otherwise, no significant activity.
Outlook —-
Weather dominated pauses in the operations by both sides. Expect continued lowered levels of operations and potentially higher levels of deep attacks (drones / missiles). The strategy will be shifting to attacks on logistics and artillery targets.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Moldovan Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu says that Moldova has complied with 4 EU sanctions packages and also vowed to expand sanctions compliance in March 2023
Russia is framing these actions as contradictory to the will of the Moldovan people who want ties with Russia
Russia warns that Moldova’s decision to align with EU sanctions against it will “not go unanswered”
OBSERVATION - Tension between Moldova and the Russian controlled ‘break a way’ province of Transnistria has been growing since the start of the Ukraine war. The Russia force in Transnistria is not a robust anymore due to the pull of equipment and forces for use in Ukraine, but Moldova doesn’t have an army, only a police force. Historically, Moldova has been under Romania’s sphere of influence, and Romania has indicated support of Moldova over the Russian Transnistria conflict.
Europe / NATO General –
The French people took to the streets and demanded justice for the 16 year old teen who was stabbed to death because he was white.
More evidence of cultural ‘enrichment’ by the millions of migrants that have poured into France over the past years.
***
Tensions continue to be high in Spain, with 22 days of mass protests continuing.
***
Tensions and protests continue in Ireland, though at lower levels than the first day.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas came close to violating the agreement by waiting until the last minute to release the second group of hostages
- List of hostages to be released today revealed by Hamas.
GENERAL ——————————-
The Qatari government has said that 13 Israeli women and children will be released by the Hamas terrorist organization later today, along with seven foreign nationals. This will bring the number of Israeli hostages released since Friday to 39, after 13 were released on Friday afternoon and another 13 on Saturday night.
Hamas delayed the second group’s release due to a false claim that Israel did’t allow relief trucks into N Gaza. Qatar and Egyptian leadership both condemned Hamas and told them to stop the ‘games’. Israel had warned that they would resume combat at midnight if the hostages weren’t released.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Operation pause holds.
WEST BANK——————————-
IDF / Police continue operations to arrest Hamas related terrorists.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
An oil tanker linked to Israel has been seized off the coast of Aden, Yemen, by an unknown force, a private security firm said Sunday.
The Central Park, managed and owned by Zodiac Maritime, was seized in the Gulf of Aden, private intelligence firm Ambrey said.
It wasn’t immediately clear who was behind the attack. Aden is held by forces allied to Yemen’s internationally recognized government and a Saudi-led coalition that has battled Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels for years.
The Central Park seizure comes after a container ship, CMA CGM Symi, owned by an Israeli billionaire came under attack Friday by a suspected Iranian drone in the Indian Ocean
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - A lot will depend on if Hamas can maintain their cease fire and promptly deliver the hostages. It almost fell apart on the second day because of Hamas. Two more days (including today) are left for all the hostages agreed to are released. Will Hamas try to swing a deal for more operational pause with releasing more hostages? It is already standard knowledge that Hamas will milk the hostage angle for a long as they can in order to get their way in the current situation.
ping above
Globalism / Great Reset –
“The United States is committed to the full implementation of 2030 Agenda and the SDGs, at home and abroad.”
OBSERVATION - US going to push the globalist agenda whether the US people want it or not.
*****
Springing up from the pro-Hamas protests/riots is the underlying support by WEF friendly govts as they run counter to nationalist opposition to the WEF agenda. Cross Ref Europe / Nato
The hate speech law that Ireland is preparing to pass is arguably the most radical legislation of its kind we’ve seen in the West.
It criminalizes the mere possession of materials that are “likely to incite violence or hatred” — books, videos, or even memes on your phone.
Irish PM Leo Varadker is demanding hate speech laws be passed immediately so the government can arrest Irish individuals who speak out:
“Our incitement to hated legislation is not up to date and we need it through in a matter of week.”
Conor McGregor is now under investigation by Irish Police for ‘Online Hate Speech’ after he spoke out against children being stabbed by a migrant in Dublin.
“We are restricting freedom…for the common good” - Irish Senator Pauline O’Reilly on Ireland’s “hate speech bill.”
The bill “restricts freedom” and censors views about other people’s identities that make people feel “discomfort” and “insecure”
- AND -
ENGLAND - Though protecting pro British and pro- Israeli marches, the arrests overwhelming come on these two groups - and virtually none on the islamic, pro-Hamas protests/riots.
OBSERVATION - Pro-WEF govts are rushing to put ‘hate speech’ law in place to punish nationalism and counter islamic mass migrations into European countries. The WEF wants to break down nationalism and is doing this thru funding the mass migrations across the globe into western/European cultures and nations - in an effort to cancel them out and have a mob willing to pander to the WEF’s handouts.
Thought control
Economy –
U.S. Black Friday retail sales rose 2.5% from last year, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, but the pre-holiday credit card delinquency rate is already high, and some American borrowers may soon max out their credit.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The families of three Palestinian students shot on Saturday in the US state of Vermont have urged police to investigate the attack as a hate crime.
Hisham Awartani, Tahseen Ahmed and Kinnan Abdalhamid were confronted and shot by a man near University of Vermont Campus, Burlington police said.
Officers are investigating a possible motive, but say the victims were wearing keffiyeh - a traditional scarf - and speaking Arabic when attacked.
A suspect has been arrested.
Burlington police have named the suspect as Jason J Eaton, aged 48, reports CBS News, the BBC’s media partner in the US.
OBSERVATION - For many, seeing this is not surprising, it is a natural development. As excesses and threats from the proHamas left have increased, with threats of and actual violence, push back and development of those with similar violent dispositions against the left and inclusive of moslems is going to grow as well. This event also feeds into the ‘victimhood’ narrative by islamists.
As long as pro-Hamas violence continues - violent elements opposite will grow as well
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, U.S. Central Command announced on X, formerly known as Twitter. This is the first time a U.S. aircraft carrier has sailed in the Persian Gulf since USS Nimitz (CVN-68) operated there in late 2020.
OBSERVATION - This places the flattop in a very dangerous zone should Iran feel froggy and attempt to take it out. However, under the present political situation, that threat is not as severe as earlier during the Gaza conflict.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Congress critters on Thanksgiving break.
Illegal Immigration –
Numbers continue to surge at the border. It is estimated that by the end of the current biden term - 4 years - as many as 12 MILLION illegals have entered the country. It was estimated in the Before Years that the total number of illegals in country was 12 million. The numbers of illegals have DOUBLED in 4 years.
China –
Rumors of more Chinese bank problems that could lead to failures.
North/South Korea –
South Korea has detected increased activity at the DMZ.
North Korea has deployed additional troops and equipment to the DMZ.
Heavily armed North Korean troops were also seen restoring guard posts that were originally destroyed under the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement. It is also believed that anti-aircraft guns were also brought closer to forward positions at the DMZ. The establishment of recoilless rifle positions was also noted.
OBSERVATION - Due to the pullout of agreements by both sides.
Japan –
Unidentified destroyer on station assisted the USS Mason rescue a tanker seized by Houthi pirates. See Israel below.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
Winter Storm Bettina is wreaking havoc on the Crimean and Black Sea regions of Russia - see Ukraine below for details. Significant potential logistical problems for Russia in the war against Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesman Peskov threatens naval blockade of the entire EU if it passes any more sanctions against Russia.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 30 -40 degree range with rain and/or snow across the forecast period.
Winter Storm Bettina hammering southern Ukraine regions
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Massive winter storm intensified over southern Ukraine and looks to hurt Russia and Russian forces more than Ukraine. Expect slowdown of operations on both sides until things settle down. Action in the northeastern sectors are relatively unaffected, though there are increasing forecasts of subzero temperatures enroute.
Ukraine answered Russia’s drone attacks with one of their own, hitting targets in the Tula region as well as around Moscow. Ukraine managed more damaged with fewer droned than Russia was able to do.
Avdiivka -
Reported minor Russian gains north of Avdiivka.
Russian Territory –
Russian sources and eyewitnesses are reporting a massive Ukrainian drone attack in Moscow, Tula, Kaluga, Smolensk and Bryansk regions. According to the Rybar Telegram channel.. 5 UAVs were reportedly shot down while 20 drones struck other places.
***
In response to the escalating crisis caused by Winter Storm Bettina, local authorities in Crimea declared Monday, November 27, a non-working day, urging residents to stay indoors and allow emergency services to address the aftermath.
Hurricane-force winds reaching speeds of 144 km/h (90 mph) and a significant tidal surge caused by a powerful Mediterranean cyclone named Storm Bettina have devastated parts of the Crimean Peninsula, particularly impacting Sevastopol and surrounding districts on November 25 and 26, 2023. The storm has led to widespread power outages, affecting nearly 500 000 residents, and causing considerable flooding and property damage.
The impact of Storm Bettina has extended beyond the peninsula, affecting oil operations in Russia. Crude loadings at Russia’s Novorossiysk and the CPC terminal were halted, leading to a noticeable drop in Kazakhstan’s oil production.
Situation in the occupied Crimea: high waves, minus roads and piers, flooded houses, fallen trees, blown off roofs. 30ft waves in the Black Sea.
In the Sochi, massive storm surge combined with 30+ foot waves are demolishing the shore line areas.
On a war related matter, this storm may have destroyed/damaged a significant portion of Russian helicopter assets. Russian VKS rotary wing aircraft in Crimea, S. Ukraine & S. Russia, any rotary wing craft w/o a hanger & unable to fly out before the storm will be heavily storm damaged. Similar happened in the US several years ago.
Booms protecting Sevastopol and the Kerch Straits Bridge are also eating those same 9+ meter waves. Both targets will be naked for Ukrainian boat-drones immediately after the storm abates.
According to Russian Telegram a Project 03160 Raptor-class patrol boat split in half and sunk off the coast of Sevastopol. If confirmed this will be the 5th Raptor boat to sink since the start of the Russo-Ukraine War. This would equal 30% of all raptor class patrol boats in existence being at the bottom of the Black Sea and about 50% of active Raptor class patrol boats being sunk.
***
Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant is on fire in Russia. The plant produced and repaired tanks and other heavy military equipment. Local Russian Telegram channels report that a transformer exploded on the plant.
NOTE - unclear if the fire was started by partisans or not, but still a significant hit to Russian wartime production capabilities.
Russia: Partisans set fire to a military warehouse in Yakutsk.
Outlook —-
Weather dominated pauses in the operations by both sides. Winter Storm Bettina may well hurt Russia than Ukraine and there is a potential open window of opportunity to hit targets in Crimea. Not sure how hit Russian ADA network is - radar damage to tactical systems - that opens things up further.
Otherwise, mud rules the day for at least the next couple months until temperatures get cold enough to freeze the ground.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Third group of hostages released, the fourth group pending.
- Efforts to extend the ‘pause’ past the current 4 days.
GENERAL ——————————-
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg calls for an extension of humanitarian pause in Gaza
Egyptian security sources: negotiators close to agreeing extension to Gaza truce. Says negotiators working to resolve some differences over length of truce extension, list of Palestinian prisoners to be freed
Medical conditions of some of the hostages that have been released show that not even minimal care was given to them. One young girl was shot and the wound was not treated until she was released and in an Israeli hospital where the wound was treated. Another elderly lady, Elma Avraham, the 84-year-old Israeli hostage was rushed to a hospital after being released by Hamas on Sunday, remains in critical condition.
In a statement, Soroka Medical Center CEO Dr. Shlomi Codish said that the elderly woman was “significant[ly]” neglected by her Hamas captors.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Operation pause holds. Absent an agreement to extend, IDF operations are on line to resume in Gaza after the fourth set of hostages are released.
***
The terrorist organization Hamas announced on Sunday the deaths of four commanders, particularly the head of its Northern Gaza Brigade, before the ceasefire that went into effect on Friday morning. The Northern Gaza Brigade commander, Ahmed al-Ghandour, was also a member of the Hamas Military Council. The terrorist organization had denied previous reports of his death, as well as the assassinations of other senior leaders.
NOTE - I’ve not tracked the number of reported Hamas et al leaders that Israel has taken out, but they’ve nailed a lot of them. Hamas is confirming some of the IDF claims in this announcement.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Relatively quiet
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IAF hit the Damascus airport again, taking it out of operations for an unknown period.
WEST BANK——————————-
IDF / Police continue operations to arrest Hamas related terrorists.
Israeli security forces stormed the town of Ya`bad, west of Jenin, a short while ago.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
UPDATED - The CENTRAL PARK, managed and owned by Zodiac Maritime, was seized by 5 Houthi terrorists in the Gulf of Aden yesterday. The crew was able to get to a safe room and radio for help. The USS Mason (DDG-87) and an unidentified Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force ship responded to the incident. Unable to seize the crew, and upon arrival of the Mason, five armed individuals debarked the ship and attempted to flee via their small boat. The Mason, pursued the skiff as it headed toward Yemen with the ship’s embarked helicopter and ultimately detained the five for questioning.
Following the detentions, Houthi forces fired two short-range ballistic missiles at Mason and the tanker, according to CENTCOM. The missiles landed in the Gulf of Aden approximately ten nautical miles from the ships.
NOTE - The third ship attacked in almost as many days. Shooting at the Mason as well, should trigger some sort of kinetic response by the US.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - A lot will depend on if Hamas can maintain their cease fire and promptly deliver the hostages. So far, the last news I saw indicated the fourth and final exchange has not hit any hitches.
Qatar and the US are pushing for a longer cease fire, but absent Hamas willingness to start releasing more, it looks like they are ready to receive some more battering. The pause has given IDF an opportunity to prepare as well as Hamas, in fact is suspect that they will be in even better position to deal with Hamas in N Gaza. Is Netanyahu and the war time govt willing to quickly restart their goal of eliminating Hamas? We will know later today.
Syria -
“Israeli warplanes on Sunday afternoon carried out a new raid targeting Damascus international airport … putting it out of service again,” said the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. It said the raid targeted the runways.
OBSERVATION - Israel hitting this and the Aleppo runways keep Iran from shipping war supplies to its storage sites in Syria in support of Hezbollah. Only other route is to transport by ground, but Israel has plenty of eyes on that and have hit countless convoys in the past.
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