Globalism / Great Reset –
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a handbook for global central banks regarding the development and implementation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
The IMF’s “Central Bank Digital Currency Virtual Handbook” published last week pointed out that the increased use of CBDCs can “reduce dollarization” of the global economy—a situation where countries move away from relying on the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. De-dollarization would push up borrowing costs in the United States, making loans expensive for businesses and individuals, thus affecting economic growth. Stock market values can also crash, reducing the savings and investments of Americans.
https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/fintech/central-bank-digital-currency/virtual-handbook
OBSERVATION - The globalists are going to push this thru no matter what the citizenry says. On top of this is the concept of “de-dollarization” of the global economy - a switch that would cripple the US economy as the dollar still is the currency of international trade, though facing competition by BRICS and other arrangements.
Economy –
Moody’s, one of the main financial rating agencies, has just downgraded its outlook on several U.S. banking giants. The rating agency provided a negative outlook for J.P. Morgan & Chase, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America.
The agency cited extremely high debt in a high-interest-rate environment as the main driver of the negative outlook.
OBSERVATION - This won’t be announced on the MSM any time soon, but there is growing danger to the big banks due to the high fed rates.
***
On Monday’s broadcast of CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged that “Americans still see increases in some important prices, including food, from where we were prior to the pandemic.” And responded to poor polling data on the economy by stating that
“it’s our job to explain to Americans what President Biden has done to improve the economy. I think as inflation comes down, prices stop rising, and the labor market remains strong, Americans will begin to see that we have made meaningful progress.”
Yellen answered, “So, I think we’re making considerable progress in bringing inflation down, and we saw this clearly in last week’s news, 12-month headline inflation is down to 3.2%. That’s down almost 6 percentage points from its high. But, although prices in general are rising much less quickly, Americans still see increases in some important prices, including food, from where we were prior to the pandemic. And this remains notable to people who go to the store and shop or rents — although they’re rising less quickly now — are certainly higher than they were before the pandemic. So, I do think we’re making considerable progress in bringing inflation down, but Americans do notice higher prices from what they used to be accustomed to. And, importantly, we’re making this inflation progress while maintaining a strong economy and a strong labor market. So, that’s good news for Americans.”
OBSERVATION - Yellen essentially admits that the PR happy face blitz the regime has put out isn’t gaining traction. Its because it is bogus. The economy is not all smiley faces. Last night went to the grocery store and looked at the $50 in food, in two small bags, remember back to the Before Years that that much money would fill half the cart.
RELATED - The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has now fallen for 19 months in a row. When something happens for 19 consecutive months, that is definitely a trend. The leading economic index fell 0.8 percent in October, the Conference Board said Monday. The LEI is based on 10 indicators that tend to forecast the direction of the economy.
They (See Yellen above) tell us that inflation is low, but if it was still measured the way that it was back in 1980, the official rate of inflation would be well into double digit territory. And they tell us that the unemployment rate is low, (again see Yellen above) but if honest numbers were being used the official rate of unemployment would be about 25 percent right now.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
New York Rep. Dan Goldman spoke with MSNBC’s Jen Psaki about the recent developments in Donald Trump’s legal battles over the weekend; Goldman simultaneously spoke out about the dangers of Trump’s rhetoric while calling for the former President to be “eliminated.”
Yesterday, he was walking back the comment he made against former President Trump over the weekend that sparked a social media firestorm.
“Yesterday on TV, I mistakenly used the wrong word to express the importance for America that Donald Trump doesn’t become President again,” Rep. Daniel Goldman of New York posted on X on Monday.
“While he must be defeated, I certainly wish no harm to him and do not condone political violence. I apologize for the poor choice of words.”
OBSERVATION - Freudian slip. The left have been calling for the execution - literally - of Trump for the past several months. Goldman’s call for ‘execution’ is just another vocalization of that desire. It is apparent they are losing the campaign and legal assaults are not working. This leaves your basic marxist with one choice in their view - seeing violence to its logical end - assassination. Lord help us if they try this.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Vinson at Busan, SK.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
United States has now hit its highest-ever childhood vaccine exemption rate in history, according to the CDC.
OBSERVATION - I suspect due in large part to the growing skepticism about the safety of the vaccines given the wuhan jab aftermath. Evidence that the CDC et al are losing the information war with the real science people who are exposing the massive deaths and injuries by the jab.
***
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing Pfizer for fraud.
POLITICAL FRONT –
It on. Twitter/X Corp has officially filed a lawsuit against Media Matters. Pundits from across the sector are saying it isn’t going to go well for MM.
District Judge Mark Pittman, a Donald Trump appointee with a history of rulings favorable to conservative causes, will oversee the high-profile lawsuit . So far he has -
1. Ordered the FDA to expedite the release of Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine documents.
2. Struck down President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan on November 10, 2022.
RELATED - In addition to Missouri’s AG inquiry, now Texas AG Paxton has opened a criminal investigation of Media Matters . “The Office of the Attorney General (”OAG”) is opening an investigation into Media Matters for potential fraudulent activity,” the letter said.
“We are examining the issue closely to ensure that the public has not been deceived by the schemes of radical left-wing organizations who would like nothing more than to limit freedom by reducing participation in the public square,” Attorney General Paxton said.
Civil AND criminal charges enroute to MM. They FA and are about to FO.
***
The Arizona Attorney General, Kris Mayes, has threatened legal action against Mojave County officials if they dare to hand-count ballots in the 2024 election.
In the AG’s letter to Mojave County, Mayes purports to be concerned that verifying the accuracy of ballots would ‘undermine Arizona’s democratic process.’
OBSERVATION - Cross ref to CW2 as well. Great fear that corrupt programming of these voting machines will be uncovered by the leftists.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden abruptly left the Thanksgiving turkey pardon. He did his weird jog in a beeline for the White House.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
Was monitoring at a High Alert level, but with Iran crossing Hamas under the bus, the threat has been lowered.
China –
Leading Taiwanese Presidential Candidate Lai Ching-te announced former Taiwanese Representative to the United States Hsiao Bi-Khim as his running mate on the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) ticket. Lai Ching-te is a pro-independence candidate and Bi-Khim is considered the same. Taiwan’s presidential election is scheduled for January 2024 and remains a potential flashpoint for a conflict with China.
OBSERVATION - Just how severe China’s response may be to the election of Lai Ching-te is yet to be seen. Two major exercises by the Chinese navy this year appear to be designed to test a blockade approach to forcing Taiwan to capitulate. Not a severely dangerous as an all out amphibious, but teethy enough to attempt to deter the US and Pacific allies from breaking the blockade.
If current trends continue, biden will be in a very poor position to win reelection against Trump. China doesn’t want to deal with Trump but already has biden and potential replacement - Newscum - wrapped around their little finger. They could get away with a 2024 blockade while the US is focused on a potentially very violent 2024 election run-up. Even the space between the election and inauguration would be enough to get the plan in place.
North/South Korea –
North Korea has officially notified Japan that a satellite launch could happen as soon as Wednesday.
Navigational Warnings have appeared that also indicte a new North Korean satellite launch attempt. Window starts tomorrow 15:00 UTC. Areas are same as earlier this year
***
USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) Nimitz-class aircraft carrier is making port call at Busan, South Korea - November 21, 2023. This follows the same by the USS Reagan a few months ago.
Japan –
See North/South Korea above.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Vladimir Putin will test the world’s largest ballistic missile by flying it over the South Pole, a shocking report by state media has revealed before being rapidly censored.
The Russian dictator is determined to flex his nuclear muscle to the West and will put his first regiment to be armed with the apocalypse 208-ton intercontinental nuclear weapon - the RS-28 Sarmat, aka ‘Satan 2’ - on ‘combat duty’ next month.
Putin’s own state news agency TASS reported that ‘even a truncated LCI [flight development tests], and assuming all launches are successful, would require several more launches, including via the South Pole’.
This state news agency’s claim over the South Pole was hastily censored from the report but remains in cached versions.
NOTE - The RS-28 Sarmat, aka ‘Satan 2’, has had a very limited number of test flights and there is concerns that the system is being deployed before all the bugs can be worked out.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Much of eastern Ukraine will see their first accumulating snowfall of the season next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy night for Ukraine air defenses, shooting down 9 of 10 Shahed drones overnight, 1 Iskander-K cruise missile. Russian army also launched 4 S-300 missiles at Donetsk direction. Targets central and western Ukraine as well as the Kyiv area. Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down a drone over Rostov region and a suspected drone strike hitting Sevastopol, Crimea.
Other than that, the mud has gotten really deep and gooey, bringing much of the ground offensive operations to a grinding halt.
Outlook —-
Weather dominated lull in most of the fighting, but that isn’t really stopping all of it. However, nothing significant expected in the near term.
Winter and mud will more severely impact Russian forces than Ukraine because Ukraine is better supplied for winter operations than Russia. Last winter was brutal on Russian forces and this winter projects to be even worse. Go back to the annuals of WW1 to see that non-combat injuries from living in muddy, wet trenches generated more causalities than actual combat itself. Add to this Russian logistic lines are even more vulnerable than last winter due to the arrival of ATACAMs, and British cruise missiles. The potential addition of F-16s to the mix won’t help Russia either.
Europe / NATO General –
“NATO members Turkiye, Romania and Bulgaria are nearing an agreement to create a joint force to clear mines drifting into their parts of the Black Sea as part of the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”, - Bloomberg
***
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday that it had lodged a formal complaint over Finland’s closure of four border crossings.
Finland said that the decision to close the crossings was to stem the flow of asylum seekers. Finnish authorities have claimed that migrants are purposely being ushered towards the border by Russia, allegations the Kremlin has denied.
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto said that the deportation of applicants who did not meet the criteria for asylum was becoming “impossible.”
“Deportation of migrants who don’t meet the criteria for asylum has become impossible, so entering the border means you stay in that country if you want to,” he said during a state visit to Poland.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Reports of a developing hostage release and fighting ‘pause’ continue.
- IDF continues to press into surrounded areas of N Gaza, with fierce fighting when encountering Hamas elements.
- More videos of hostages being drug into the Shifa Hospital as well as tunnels in various hospital complexes released by IDF.
GENERAL ——————————-
Deal could be announced as soon as today by Qatar for the release of hostages:- 50 hostages/ 300 Palestinian prisoners from Israel; -4-5 day pause; - Israeli surveillance drones to stop over northern Gaza for at least 6 hours/day.
Israel has not commented. Earlier PM Benjamin Netanyahu said his country would not stop fighting until hostages were brought home.
Hamas, in regards to the alledged deal is using the Arabic word- “hudna” - is associated with a non-permanent kind of pause.
OBSERVATION - Clearly designed for Hamas leaders to get out of the encirclement in N Gaza and infiltrate out of S Gaza and into Egypt. I find it hard to believe that Israel will accept anything but full, unconditional release of the hostages as they have the momentum and full tactical advantage now.
Israel has obtained footage of Hamas terrorists taking a kidnapped Israeli boy to the Hamas headquarters in the Al-Shifa hospital.
Unconfirmed reports that IDF forces have broken through fortified door in tunnel under Shifa, entering underground areas below hospital.
The Israeli “Iron Beam” Laser-Defense System has reportedly conducted its first successful combat interception of a rocket launched from the Gaza Strip.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Heavy fighting and intense airstrikes are reported to be ongoing across Northern Gaza right now as both Hamas and the IDF are likely trying to get their last few “kicks” in before the truce/ceasefire begins in what is now believed to be sometime in the coming hours.
Israeli tanks have pushed far into northern Gaza and have now surrounded the Indonesian Hospital and the Hamas terrorists holed up inside.
Israeli forces are close to seizing full control of Zaytun district, a key Hamas stronghold in Gaza City; Israeli forces are fighting in Hamas strongholds east of Gaza City to demolish remaining pockets of resistance
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced Monday that a rocket factory had been discovered beneath a mosque in Gaza, together with a variety of deadly weapons hidden at the holy site.
NOTE- Not going to belabor this, Hamas has fully demonstrated their flaunting of internationally recognized ‘laws of warfare’ by using such facilities for war purposes.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah has gradually taken over the attacks in the north. Initially, it allowed Hamas and affiliated groups operating in southern Lebanon to be the primary attack force, but recently it has been Hezbollah launching the attacks.
Israel continues to hit back with artillery and air strikes.
Concern is rising once again that the intensity of the exchanges is on the rise and that further escalation could cause a much larger conflict.
WEST BANK——————————-
Palestinian militia fighters engaged Israeli forces in eight small arms clashes across the WestBank on Nov. 20. Hamas & the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine continue to call for attacks against Israeli soldiers and civilians in the West Bank.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Iran-backed Houthi terrorist movement warned that it would continue its attacks until the ‘demise of Israel’ after the Houthis seized an Israel-i-linked ship in the Red Sea.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Continued calls for cease fire, blaming Israel for genocidal attacks on hospitals, etc.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The drama continues to center on various hospitals now that IDF has entered and is in the process of securing them. The location and exploration of the main bunker complexes is still in its early stages, but The Hamas command bunker below the hospital is reportedly as deep as 200 feet and consists of multiple levels with deep tunnels reaching out to other areas in N Gaza.
I’ve got mixed thoughts on the alleged pending hostage exchange and operational hold. From the announced stance by Israel, it falls far short of its stated demands - full, unconditional release of the hostages. It would give Hamas 5 days to regroup - and the demand that no IAF surveillance be conducted as well - covering repositioning and rearming Hamas and affiliated groups into better positions. Same would allow them to reload/repair rocket launching sites for a post “pause’ rocket blitz.
50 is also only about 1/4th of the total number of hostages, permitting Hamas to play the hostages for operational ‘pauses’ / battle delay for months. I can’t see how such a deal will help Israel’s tactical and strategic goals. Recent clearly documented evidence that Hamas has and continues to use hospitals, mosques, schools, etc for military purposes has blunted the lies of the Hamas support MSM, so the PR press of recent has crested for the moment.
Lots yet to play out. Hamas has also commonly played this game to get some hopes up only to come up with some excuse to cancel an exchange and find a way to blame Israel - psyops against the drive of the Jewish people to get their loved ones back.
We will see just how this plays out today.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Central / South America General-
Javier Milei, the new president of Argentina. One item that he has brought back to the radar screen is ownership of the Falkland Islands / Malvinas.
A few years ago, sometimes I would shop at one of those places where you buy the bags... My rule of thumb was one bag for every ten dollars spent. And it wasn't even that long ago. You're right about Yellen's message not selling - because it's not true. Democrats think all of us are stupid.
Thanks. BUMP.
Tomorrow being Thanksgiving, don’t expect a post unless something really big happens. May you all have a blessed and peaceful day remembering to be thankful for all that God has done for you the past year.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The Biden administration is set to back a plan that would crush the coal industry at the upcoming United Nations (UN) climate summit, Reuters reported on Tuesday.
The U.S. will reportedly support a French plan to get the countries of the world to ban private financing of coal-fired power plants during the upcoming UN conference, known as COP28, according to Reuters. The plan is likely to drive a rift between countries like the U.S. and France and those like China and India, which are reliant on coal to feed their economies cheap and reliable electricity.
The proposed plan would allow the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to set coal standards for private financing companies that would allow regulators, ratings agencies and non-governmental organizations to track coal financing, according to Reuters.
Beyond the reported plan to strangle private financing for coal plants, delegates are expected to discuss the shape and stipulations of a so-called “loss and damages” fund, a de facto international climate reparations program, at COP28. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry recently suggested that the U.S. will pay “millions” into the fund, a number that many activists and representatives of poorer countries find to be inadequate. China is unlikely to have any significant obligations to the fund because it is classified as a developing country, despite its status as the world’s top emitter and second-largest economy.
COP28 is scheduled to begin on Nov. 30 and run through Dec. 12.
OBSERVATION - Very significant move toward international controls superseding national laws and priorities. The ‘climate reparations’ just a rebranding of steeling from rich countries to fluff the pockets of tyrants so poor countries.
Economy –
Earlier this year, California passed regulations that would turn the trucking industry upside down. New mandates for zero emissions trucks would disrupt the industry, raise shipping costs, and put trucking companies out of business. A group including 19 states and several trucking organizations recently filed suit to block the California regulation.
California’s Advanced Clean Fleets (ACF) Regulation goes into effect on January 1, 2024. The ACF requires that truck operators buy only Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) trucks for medium-duty and heavy-duty trucking operations as early as January 2024. The ACF also requires that trucking companies transition their fleets to 100 percent ZEV trucks by 2035 to 2042, depending upon class of truck.
OBSERVATION - Cross reference with “Globalism / Great Reset” as well. Due to kalifornia’s skewed, oversized population and economic status, it has been able to dictate a lot of rules across the nation. Early on it was to push its air quality emission standards across the entire auto industry. Recently, pork and poultry producers were forced into changing their operations to meet Kalifornian demand for humane raising of these critters - giving them more room and other niceties. The lawsuit to reverse that failed - basically the courts said you have the freedom to sell to other markets. But the kalifornia market is the 800 lb gorilla in the room. This new scheme will hit trucking massively - as well as our pocket books as shipping rates will likely skyrocket and delivery networks less reliable.
Notably - this ties into the globalist scheme to use climate change laws to dictate life to us lesser beings, removing another factor of freedom.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
The military leadership at the Minot Air Force Base in North Dakota recently sent a text message to service members warning them that their “continued service” could be jeopardized if they attended a local rally featuring a speaker from an organization that has historically supported former President Donald Trump.
The text message, acquired by Fox News, was sent to Minot Air Force Base staff and warned, “Leaders, please exercise caution if downtown this weekend.” The Air Force base’s commander cautioned service personnel in a text message that “participation with groups such as Turning Point Action could jeopardize their continued service in the United States military.”
OBSERVATION - Listed under CW2 because this action furthers the growing divide between red and blue being forced on the military. The airbase later issued a very lame mea culpa saying that the message was sent ‘outside official channels’ and was allegedly not properly vetted as a result. The USAF command has demonstrably been increasingly liberal in its leadership since the 0bama purges and this is just another example. I want to see who actually sent this piece of crap out and have them raked over the coals at the very least - since the pampered princes in the Pentagon won’t do jack about it.
***
(FO) In a letter to the Department of Justice (DOJ), Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR) urged Attorney General Merrick Garland to release information on the Hemisphere phone surveillance program that allows federal, state, and local law enforcement to request searches of trillions of U.S. phone records without a warrant.
Wyden said he has “serious concerns about the legality of this program,” and materials Wyden already obtained from the DOJ contain “troubling information that would justifiably outrage many Americans” and other lawmakers.
OBSERVATION - Interesting that a democrat is leading the charge for accountability of another massive intel collection operation against the American citizenry absent due legal process / warrants.
***
Speaking of surveillance -
Sonya Labosco, Director of the Air Marshals National Council said Air Marshalls are quietly following Americans who flew into the DC area around January 6, 2021.
“We’re not flying right now. The only missions that we are doing are ‘Quiet Skies’ missions and those are missions that are following the January 2021 people,” Labosco said. “So we’re either on the border for illegal immigrants or we’re following folks from January 2021. We’re not doing our regular missions where we’re out there looking for the bad guys so for now most flights you’re not gonna have Air Marshalls.”
The Fox News host was stunned: “What do you mean that you’re following January 2021 people? What does that mean?
“That means our primary mission is a little group called ‘quiet skies’ – it’s a mission called quiet skies that we’re following people that flew into the national capital region in January 2021 and they did not have to go to the Capitol or the rally and you’ve been put on a specific list that TSA has now assigned Air Marshals to follow these people who have not had any type of criminal investigation – they haven’t committed a crime, but yet three years later we are following the same individuals day in and day out,” Labosco said.
“Well, they didn’t even have to be at the Capitol…they could have just flown into the capital region so anyone who was there for a job interview or to visit family. We even have a gentleman who was there for a funeral. They’ve been put on this domestic terrorist list just because of their geographic location to Washington DC,” Labosco said.
OBSERVATION - Increasing levels of covert govt surveillance of the population is not a good sign of a health republic. I would think that the deep state has developed such a broad and intrusive system that would make the KGB and Stasi blush.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
As the war between Israel and Hamas rages on, experts at the New York State Intelligence Center have warned that the Empire state could be a potential target for Islamic terrorist attacks.
According to CBS News, the center noted in its threat assessment that evidence pointed to an “increasing terror threat to NYS.”
“The expansion of Israeli operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip and increase in civilian casualties raises the likelihood that violent extremist threat actors will seek to conduct attacks against targets in the West, with New York State being a focus,” the report explained. “Terrorist messaging has placed focus on attacking ‘soft targets’ such as protests, group gatherings, and other public events.”
The report also noted that in recent weeks, both antisemitic and anti-Palestinian sentiments online have helped fuel an increase in hate crimes targeting Jews and Muslims alike.
OBSERVATION - the inclusion of “anti-palestinian” act is a sop to the pro-hamas islamic radicals.
IN RELATED - I would be on high alert tomorrow for the Macy’s parade with the aggressiveness the pro-Hamas elements (as well as the transtifas) have shown recently. I don’t have any direct intel, but these protestors have shown that they are willing to disrupt in a large way and the coverage of the parade would give them a platform to spread their so called message.
The most likely action would be to block/interrupt the parade. Worse case scenario, though at this stage less likely would be a violent attack under the cover/disruptions of a protest designed to cause casualties or deaths.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US military will deploy new medium-range missile systems to the Pacific region next year for the purpose of “deterring” China from invading Taiwan, the commander of US Army Pacific Forces said on Saturday.
According to Defense One, Gen. Charles Flynn said the deployment will include a land-based version of the Tomahawk missile, which was previously banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, a treaty with Russia the US withdrew from in 2019.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Legal pundits are noting that Musk/X has a really good case against Media Matters and have a high likelihood of prevailing.
Congress critters settling in on another break over thanksgiving.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden’s birthday pic with the massive flaming cake hasn’t helped his image of being physical capable of a second term.
Illegal Immigration –
Anger as illegals are getting preference in some blue sanctuary city/states in getting Thanksgiving food and the like over US citizen homeless and veterans.
China –
One of China’s Yuzhao-class Amphibious Transport Docks was filmed belching black smoke columns while underway yesterday. However, discussion from the OSINT community also suggested that this could be part of a smoke screen / deception test to either help obscure the vessel or make opponents think it has been disabled. China has yet to make any statement on it.
North/South Korea –
North Korea claims it has successfully put a military spy satellite into space, after two earlier attempts failed this year. South Korea says it has not confirmed yet if the satellite is operational. But it says it believes the North received help from Russia.
Following the launch, South Korea announced it would resume surveillance along its border with the North, thereby taking steps to suspend parts of a deal agreed by the two countries in 2018 aimed at lowering military tensions.
Japan –
With the launch of a NK spy satellite, the Japanese government briefly issued an emergency warning, telling residents in Okinawa to take shelter. North Korea had on Monday told Japan it intended to attempt its satellite launch again. It had tried twice this year and failed - in May and August.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Much of eastern Ukraine will see their first accumulating snowfall of the season next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 14 of 14 Shahed drones overnight.
Russia continues to launch attacks in the Avdiyivka area, with little to no gain, but very heavy losses.
Kherson Axis -
Hold this latest report on Krynky at arms length as its source is Russian Milblogger WarGonzo’s early morning update “In the Kherson-Crimean direction, Ukrainian marines, supported by artillery, attacked from Krynky on the left bank of the Dnipro and entered the forest belt near this village. The goal is to reach the M-14 highway. If success is achieved, the RF Armed Forces will have serious problems.”
This adds up to other sources claiming Ukrainian troops are pushing forward through the forest and advanced already. Significant but not major action at this stage, but could be setting things up for a later, much larger push towards Crimea.
Outlook —-
Weather dominated lull in most of the fighting, but that isn’t really stopping all of it. However, nothing significant expected in the near term.
Big note that though there are some parallels between Avdiyivka and Bakhmut, this winter will be far worse for Russia. No Wagner shock troops to lead the assault and Ukraine has cluster munitions. This has made the Russian ‘meat’ attacks receive far more casualties than Bakkmut. Finally, as the winter wears on, the effects of the cold and wet will grind down Russian forces even more, further restricting the numbers of bodies available to assault the well prepared Ukrainian positions.
Europe / NATO General –
Tomorrow there is a general election in the Netherlands. The anti-immigration PVV party just surged into first place. This would put firebrand Geert Wilders on a potential path to become Prime Minister of the Netherlands. Wilders promises to make the Netherlands great again shutting down the border and leaving the EU.
OBSERVATION - This may also place the Netherlands on a further collision course with the EU regarding carbon reduction goals. I’ve noted that the current govt has been pushing to eliminate the vast majority of the farms in the country to meet EU climate change goals. Such a move would completely devastate the industry which supplies a considerable amount of food to EU countries. Combined with the growing pushback to the uncontrolled flood of ‘immigrants’ from N Africa and the Middle east and the ensuing chaos they are bringing could well be the catalyst for Wilder’s victory.
***
EU member states are discussing whether to restrict travel by Russian diplomats after the CzechRepublic complained that potential spies were evading monitoring thanks to the EU’s borderless zone. Czech Republic wants Russian diplomats to receive visas & residence permits that only allow travel within the host country, and not the rest of the Schengen area.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- The Israeli cabinet approves a hostage deal with Hamas, PM office says
- IDF continues to probe deeper into the bunker complex beneath the Shifa Hospital site.
GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli has agreed to a hostage / prisoner exchange and an operational pause. Agreement paves the way for the release of 50 hostages, mostly women and children. Israel will reportedly release 150 to 300 female and teenage Palestinians prisoners “with no blood on their hands.” Netanyahu also told the ministers during the cabinet meeting that as part of the agreement the Red Cross will visit hostages that will not be released and provide them with medicine, according to the Prime Minister’s office. The IDF, Shin Bet, and the Mossad “have made it completely clear in their professional assessment, that the security of our forces will be ensured during the pause and that the intelligence effort will be maintained in those days,” he continued. “They have made it clear that not only will the war effort not be harmed, it will enable the IDF to prepare for the continuation of the fighting.”
The first batch of hostages is expected to be released as early as Thursday, with Hamas reportedly having agreed to release 12 to 13 hostages each day of the four-day truce. “The release of every additional 10 hostages will result in one additional day in the pause,” the government added.
Israel’s Channel 12 News reported that the deal will see the release of 30 children, eight mothers and 12 women held by Hamas. The terror group claimed that it could not immediately locate 10 additional children taken from southern Israel on Oct. 7.
“After the hostage deal is implemented, we will continue dismantling Hamas while respecting humanitarian law on the ground,” wrote Jonathan Conricus, Israel Defense Forces spokesman, a little after 3 a.m. in Israel. “We will remain vigilant during the pause and use the time to prepare for future operations.”
Hamas previously released four hostages for what it said were “humanitarian reasons.” Judith Raanan, 59, and her 17-year-old daughter, Natalie, were freed on Oct. 20. Nurit Cooper, 79, and Yocheved Lifshitz, 85, were let go three days later.
Moreover, IDF special forces late last month rescued Pvt. Ori Megidish from Gaza.
Last week, Israel Defense Forces soldiers operating in the vicinity of Shifa Hospital in Gaza City recovered the bodies of Cpl. Noa Marciano, 19, and Yehudit Weiss, 65. Both women were murdered during their captivity, according to the military.
Islamic Jihad spokesperson, Abu Hamza, claims an Israeli hostage has died. The group did not say how the hostage passed away
The Israeli army says it has breached the blast door at the end of the tunnel discovered underneath Gaza’s Shifa Hospital. It publishes two images, one showing the open door and the other further inside the tunnel
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IDF continued to strike targets in Gaza overnight.
Most current map of the situation on the ground -
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/F_f5HXeWYAA5LZA?format=jpg&name=4096x4096
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah issued a statement claiming responsibility for 12 separate attacks today along the Lebanon-Israel border
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Hezbollah reportedly will adhere to the cease fire period along with Hamas.
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Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen is warning the United Nations Security Council that failure to adopt the 1701 resolution calling for the disarmament of Hezbollah could lead to an expanded regional war.
“For the good of regional stability and to avoid further escalation, the next session of the UN Security Council must adopt a totally different approach in order to end the dangerous violations by Hezbollah and other terrorist groups on the border,” Cohen wrote.
According to the Times of Israel, “UN Security Council resolution 1701 brought to an end the Second Lebanon War in 2006, and called for the disarmament of all non-state armed forces in Lebanon, as well as for the region between the Israel-Lebanon border and the Litani River to be freed of all armed forces other than the Lebanese army and the UN’s peacekeeping mission UNIFIL.”
“These clauses of the resolution were never implemented, and Hezbollah has become a heavily armed terror militia,” the Israeli news organization explained.
The Foreign Minister’s comments come after Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Sunday informed reporters that Hezbollah has fired over 1,000 munitions at Israel since the October 7th Hamas attack.
WEST BANK——————————-
IDF/police continue to seek out and arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Pro-Iranian militias launched an attack on US forces at Shadadi military base in southern Hasakah, Syria
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On the morning of November 22 in Iraq, U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) forces conducted discrete, precision strikes against two facilities in Iraq. The strikes were in direct response to the attacks against U.S. and Coalition forces by Iran and Iran-backed groups, including the one in Iraq on November 21, which involved use of close-range ballistic missiles.
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The GALAXY LEADER (9237307) is reportedly in the anchorage at Hodeidah, Yemen , having arrive there on Nov 20th.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Police in Germany conducted raids and arrested more than a dozen individuals who were found to have publicly shown support for Hamas and antisemitism on social media platforms.
The raids, which took place in the German state of Bavaria, primarily focused on the city of Munich. A total of 17 individuals, ranging in age between 18 and 62, were arrested.
NOTE - I was stationed 5 years in Augsburg GE, just a little ways west of Munich. Sad to see that such Nazism still exists there as Bavaria was a stronghold of nazism in WW2.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The impending hostage release and 4 day operational pause is on the cutting edge today. Hamas has in the past done what it could to sabotage releases and may well try to instigate an incident that it could blame on Israel. However, they also appear to be desperate to get some of the pressure off their forces. Early demands by Hamas was for 300+ prisoners to be released - that was dropped to around 150 and only those not convicted of murder or other acts that placed ‘blood on their hands’.
The exchange is expected to start on Thursday.
One other factor that has come out is that Hamas apparently has lost track of the hostages taken by PIJ and other affiliated terror groups along with those taken by Gazan ‘civilians’ themselves. This reportedly covers about 50 civilian hostages.
In some respects, this also allows Israel to discover and prepare to exploit any intelligence finds as they continue to penetrate into the Hamas command bunker beneath Shifa Hospital.
I expect that the IDF will resume combat operations at the end of the 4 day (or potentially longer) period in a very aggressive manner. Through the whole negotiations Israel made it clear that destruction of Hamas was the end goal.
I also expect that Iranian supported militias will continue attacks on US bases in Syria and Iraq as they are separated by distance from Israel and does not directly involve them.
The US OTOH appears to be becoming more aggressive in its airstrikes against these militias which in the long run is a good thing - strength is THE deterrent in the moslem world. Iran will be reluctant to do anything against the US in support of the militias.