Did the world hit a tipping point on Oct 7th? That is a question that is gaining more and more attention. It ripped open some seriously ugly on a global basis and destabilized an already wobbly world even further.
Economy –
The commercial real estate sector is facing the possibility of a substantial number of bankruptcies that could ultimately hamper economic recovery and threaten the wounded banking industry, according to experts who spoke to the Daily Caller News Foundation.
“Commercial real estate is in deep trouble and could constitute a major risk to the banking system and the recovery,” Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told the DCNF. “In fact, I would characterize the situation as a slow-moving train wreck. The underlying problem is that occupancy rates have slumped post-Covid since many workers are now working at least part of the time from home.”
https://thelibertydaily.com/slow-moving-train-wreck-theres-powder-keg-inside/
OBSERVATION - Hand in hand with the residential real estate crisis is the commercial real estate crisis. Both look at synergizing with the other and continued high fed prime rates coupled with the persistent damage from the wuhan plandemic shutdowns threaten the larger banking related community. This would result in more bank collapses and failures - even among the so called too large to fail banks. If this happens, then the conspiracy theories of bank “bail ins” and even the pushing of the global reset button become a very real possibility.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Saturday night’s massive protest in Downtown Sacramento brought the California Democratic Convention to a standstill. More than 2,500 demonstrators flooded the streets, demanding Democratic leaders call for a cease-fire in Gaza.
The protest originated as a sit-in demonstration inside the Safe Credit Union Convention Center building with about 200 people. However, it rapidly escalated, swelling to thousands as protestors called for democratic leaders to call for a cease-fire.
Sameena Husman, a delegate, emphasized that some Democratic voters, stating that without swift action, won’t participate in next year’s elections.
“A lot of people who are Democrats have lost faith in the party,” Husman said. “We need to stand up and say we’re not going to stand for this, and we have to have a cease-fire.”
The Democratic Party of Oregon canceled its Portland holiday party over fears of violence & disruption from leftist pro-Palestine protesters.
OBSERVATION - Can cross reference under political category as well. The targeting of the democrats by pro-hamas elements is most interesting and evidence of internal conflicts between older, more moderate dems and the radical marxist leftist in the party now supporting hamas. It would seem that the marxists are attempting to secure their democrat power base in the face of the 2024 elections. So the violence currently is directed towards them. Once they gain capitulation of that group, you can expect violence to next focus on everyone else.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Police in Lakewood, N.J. are investigating a grenade that was attached to a utility pole near the Satmar Bais Medrash synagogue. The Lakewood Scoop reports that the grenade was real but inert and empty.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The extent of the fraudulent reporting and the increasing evidence that the J6 events were planned keep rolling in with more and more video release. The whole point of J6, it appears, was to sabotage the Electoral College objections, prevent an investigation of election fraud allegations, and frame Trump and his supporters for it. It worked so far, but the narrative is crumbling. Never fear, the deep state is not going to let these criminals who organized this false flag event be prosecuted. Withholding evidence in the trials of J6 individuals may result in judges thinking otherwise.
***
Musk is expected to launch is ‘thermonuclear” lawsuit against uber leftist Media Matters and associated individuals today. It has also come to light that the CEO for X was strongly encouraged to resign as part of this pressure campaign by high level advertising executives.
RELATED - On Sunday, Republican Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey announced that his team is investigating left-leaning news organization Media Matters over allegations of criminal and civil violations.
This comes after Elon Musk announced that X-Corp will be launching a “thermonuclear lawsuit” against the company on claims that Media Matters enacted a “fraudulent attack” on X-Corp and in an attempt to “undermine freedom of speech and mislead advertisers.”
The specific allegations that Attorney General Bailey’s Office is investigating pertain to recent findings that Media Matters allegedly created fake social media accounts to game the X servers in order to create false impressions for its hit piece on Elon Musk. These allegations went viral after they were shared on X by Human Events’ Jack Posobiec.On Sunday, Republican Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey announced that his team is investigating left-leaning news organization Media Matters over allegations of criminal and civil violations.
This comes after Elon Musk announced that X-Corp will be launching a “thermonuclear lawsuit” against the company on claims that Media Matters enacted a “fraudulent attack” on X-Corp and in an attempt to “undermine freedom of speech and mislead advertisers.”
The specific allegations that Attorney General Bailey’s Office is investigating pertain to recent findings that Media Matters allegedly created fake social media accounts to game the X servers in order to create false impressions for its hit piece on Elon Musk. These allegations went viral after they were shared on X by Human Events’ Jack Posobiec.
OBSERVATION - Taking the fight directly to Soros funded MM, both civilly and criminally. This includes board members as well at MM. Evidence put forth by Musk seems to support the charges and places it on solid ground. These WEF sensitive corporations that pulled their ads based on this coordinated campaign may well be in a world of hurt as well - conspiracy. Break open the popcorn.
***
A new NBC national poll for the 2024 general election has Republican presidential candidate and former President Donald Trump beating President Joe Biden for the “first time” in the network’s “history,” according to NBC host Kristen Welker.
Welker was joined by national correspondent Steve Kornacki Sunday during the network’s show “Meet the Press” to discuss the latest polling for the 2024 general election. Kornacki stated that Trump now leads Biden by 2 points, holding at 46 percent.
OBSERVATION - I don’t given a lot of credence to polling, especially this early in the election cycle, but two things jump out bigly.
1. This is from a leftist leaning organization who has historically skewed their polls towards the left as a means to sway public opinion. The fact that they reported that Trump is leading indicates strongly that their ‘special sauce’ poll tactics are mot enough to over come Trump’s popularity.
2. That they would go forward and publish such a negative poll also strongly suggests that the powers that be may be trying to get biden to step down. Media has provided less and less cover for biden’s scandals and bungles over the past months.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden got creepy with a young girl. . . . . . again.
China –
Taiwan reported renewed Chinese military activity around the island on Sunday, with nine aircraft crossing the sensitive median line of the Taiwan Strait and warships carrying out “combat readiness patrols.”
Democratically-governed Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory, has complained for the past four years of regular Chinese military patrols and drills near the island, as Beijing seeks to pressure Taipei over its sovereignty claims.
With Chinese President Xi Jinping in San Francisco last week for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, where he met U.S. President Joe Biden, the scale of that military activity around Taiwan had scaled off. These incursions resumed Sunday following Xi’s return to China from the APEC summit.
OBSERVATION - Xi made happy with biden over the weekend, but that is a deception. Xi will do what it takes to seize Taiwan and that opportunity window is closing fast - especially if biden drops out of the election or is defeated, then China may strike sooner than later.
***
Taiwan holds presidential and parliamentary elections on Jan. 13, with the island’s fraught relations with China an important topic on the campaign trail.
OBSERVATION - China is hip deep in trying to influence the outcome of this election. if it goes against it, expect a serious response
North/South Korea –
The defense chiefs of South Korea and the United States on Monday unveiled an updated security strategy, the first in a decade, specifically designed to counter the growing threats emanating from North Korean nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction.
“(The defense chiefs) recognized that the 2023 TDS revisions render it into a flexible and robust document that serves as a strategic framework to effectively deter and respond to advancing DPRK nuclear and other WMD and non-nuclear capabilities with strategic impacts,” read the joint statement of the annual Security Consultative Meeting, a key bilateral defense dialogue, held in Seoul.
OBSERVATION - Pretty standard, but will draw the ire of NK never the less.
Japan –
Japan has strongly condemned the hijacking of Japanese-operated cargo ship Galaxy Leader in the Red Sea by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.
The Yemeni militia claimed the vessel was Israeli, but a Japanese government spokesperson said the car carrier was operated by Nippon Yusen.
Japan’s chief cabinet secretary said it is working towards its release.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu blamed Iran, which backs the Houthi militia, for the hijacking.
Mr Netanyahu said neither the vessel nor the crew were Israeli, and called it an “Iranian attack on an international ship”.
Twenty-two people are believed to be on board the vessel which is thought to be British-owned.
Nippon Yusen said the Galaxy Leader was seized off the coast of Yemen on its way to India.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Logistics –
British intel: Russia will likely bring the Soviet-era M-55 high-altitude reconnaissance aircraft back into service. Max 70,000 ft ceiling.
NOTE - This plane in similar in some design aspects and use as the US SR-1 birds. Russia is seriously lacking airborne intelligence platforms to guide their war efforts. However unlike the US, Russia has not maintained nor upgraded these airframes to bring them into the era of modern war.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Much of eastern Ukraine will see their first accumulating snowfall of the season next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian airstrike with JDAM at Russian base near Tarasivka of Kherson region.
Other than that, nothing really significant other than more fighting in the Kherson region.
Kherson Axis -
Things are becoming more interesting in the push across the Dniper River. It is being noted that it’s only 65km from the Ukrainian bridgehead at Krynky to occupied Crimea. Similar distance from the second bridgehead closer to Kherson. The old axiom comes into play - “he who gets there with the mostest first will win it”
Outlook —-
Weather dominated lull in most of the fighting, but that isn’t really stopping all of it. However, nothing significant expected in the near term.
Europe / NATO General –
France has successfully test-fired an M51.3 long-range ballistic missile, boosting the credibility of France’s nuclear deterrence capabilities, the defense ministry said on Sunday. The M51.3 missile is an upgraded version of the M51, a three-stage sea-land strategic ballistic missile designed to be launched from French Navy submarines. The M51 was first test-fired from a ground base in 2006 and from a submarine in 2010, the year it was commissioned.
***
Antifa held a demonstration in Madrid, Spain on Nov. 18 to oppose the conservatives protesting against the socialist government giving amnesty to leftist separatists.
Far more massive protests against the leftists in the Madrid govt continue, far outnumbering the Antifa elements.
OBSERVATION - Mobilization of Antifa elements, combined with other more radical leftist elements is raising the potential for inter-group violence in the near term. From what I’ve read, the amnesty for the leftists is not yet a done deal and something that the interim govt is not even permitted to do - because it is temporary. Initial impression I’ve read is that the Judiciary is not inclined favorably to such extra judicial grant of amnesty.
****
Finland is preparing to close its four remaining checkpoints on the border with Russia on the night of November 21-22 - Finnish media.
OBSERVATION - Russia continues to facilitate the movement of Somali and Syrian refugees toward the Baltic regions in a move designed to destabilize the countries in a manner much of the rest of europe has been destabilized.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel released videos showing hostages being brought into the Shifa Hospital forcibly by Hamas elements and hospital staff taking note, but no actions.
- Israel also released videos of one of the entrances and portions of what appears to be a much bigger bunker located beneath the Shifa hospital complex. Video stopped at a large blast door yet to be breached.
- IDF ground forces continued to move eastward from the coast while forces in moved south from the northern border region.
- The Indonesian Hospital is in the process of being surrounded and taken over in a manner similar to the Shifa hospital .
- Houthi terrorists have hijacked the cargo ship GALAXY LEADER.
GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas press notice - “We demand action to stop targeting civilians in schools protected under international law”
NOTE - Tons of evidence Hamas has been using schools for rocket launching and munitions storage.
***
Israeli army released for publication 2 videos from the Shifa Hamas HQ showing Hamas terorists bringing in kidnapped civilians (a Thai and Nepalese nationals) during the Simchat Tora Massacre on October 7th, the “medical staff” is clearly and willingly collaborating with the militants
Additionally, the army also says a medical report determined that a young Israeli woman soldier whose body was recovered last week had been injured in an air strike and then killed by Hamas in the hospital.
***
A journalist employed by NBC was arrested on Thursday on suspicion of inciting terrorism and identifying with a terrorist organization.
Marwat Al-Azza, a 45-year-old journalist, employed by the NBC television network and living in east Jerusalem, was arrested after four recent posts on her personal Facebook page regarding the October 7 terror attack by Hamas from the Gaza Strip, in which at least 1,200 people were murdered and 240 taken hostage.
In her investigation, she admitted to what was attributed to her.
***
There continues to be talk about a proposed hostage release / prisoner exchange with some sort of operational ‘pause’ by Israel. Israel is holding firm to its policy of unconditional hostage release.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Hamas announces the killing of 12 people in raids on the Indonesian hospital in the northern Gaza Strip. This Indonesian hospital is the next location of Hamas use and underground bunkers that the IDF is focusing on.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army says that earlier today Hezbollah targets were struck by fighter jets in Lebanon, also confirmed that multiple mortar shells and ATGMs were repeatedly launched in different areas along the border, Israeli army continues to retaliate
The Israeli army says it carried out preemptive artillery shelling in southern Lebanon this morning. A short while later, a number of rockets and mortars were fired from Lebanon at the northern communities of Arab al-Aramshe and Bar’am, as well as the Biranit base.
Hezbollah militia targeted the Israeli “Branit” barracks with heavy “Burkan” missiles.
WEST BANK——————————-
Continuing clashes between Palestinian militants and Israeli forces in Jenin camp.
Israeli forces arrested at least 38 Palestinians in the West Bank at dawn today (local)
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi made good their threat on any shipping associated with Israel. Overnight the GALAXY LEADER, a vehicle transport carrier, was attacked by Houthi militants off the coast of Yemen. GALAXY LEADER sails under Ray Shipping LTD; an Israeli based car transport service and was carrying cars that was sailing from Turkey to India. The reports say the’ve taken over the ship and have 22 hostages of which some are alleged to be Israelis*
Houthi rebels are believed to have used a helicopter raid to seize the cargo ship according to US officials.
Joe Biden took the Houthis off the Terror Watch List and then the Houthis attacked the U.S.
Following the hijacking of a ship today, Houthi spokesperson says the following types of ships will be targeted: Ships carrying Israeli flags. Ships operated by Israeli companies and ships owned by Israeli companies
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Jordanian King warns of the disastrous effects of the ongoing war in Gaza, which is killing, defenseless civilians.
NOTE - The king of jordan forgets that these same ‘civilians’ also participated in the horrors of Oct 7th.
***
Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi has condemned the alleged Israeli air strike on the Indonesian hospital in northern Gaza.
This morning, the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said 12 people were killed at the site. Israeli tanks were later seen entering the area.
“The attack is a clear violation of international humanitarian laws,” Marsudi said.
OBSERVATION - Again, allowing the use of the facilities by Hamas for military purposes voids international rules on protecting hospitals and other civilian facilities.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The drama continues to center on various hospitals now that IDF has entered and is in the process of securing them. The location and exploration of the main bunker complexes is still in its early stages, but The Hamas command bunker below the hospital is reportedly as deep as 200 feet and consists of multiple levels with deep tunnels reaching out to other areas in N Gaza.
The Houthi seizure of the GALAXY LEADER is likely to prompt a military strike of some sort on Houthi infrastructure along the coast of the Red Sea. Intel and targeting is probably ongoing by both US and Israeli elements. Until this seizure, it seemed that Israel was willing to put up with sporadic drone and ballistic missile attacks that have been easily defeated. This opens up a new can of worms. Not sure Houthi’s really want to anger other nations on a screwed up hijacking.
Could be that Houthi’s are feeling pretty cocky and that the distance separating it from Israel is enough to grant it some degree of protection, but I wouldn’t count on it.
As the ship is operated by Japan and the crew non-israeli, it is likely that it will be released sooner than later, since Houthi’s desire Israeli hostages, not those from other countries. Once that happens, I expect some kind of military action against the houthi’s by Israel or the US or both.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Central / South America General-
Javier Milei is the new president of Argentina. Sergio Massa has recognized his defeat and conceded. Leftists in Argentina are in tears tonight, sobbing as their 40 years of rule has come to an end.
Milei is considered to be the Argentina Trump.
OBSERVATION - His election was by a landslide and he is wildly popular. One of the platforms of his campaign was to eliminate elements of the government associate with the leftist agenda in the country. It will be a wild ride.
Adding 'pro Hamas nutcases' to liberal hellhole cities gives those dumps a stone age veneer.
How charming. /s
Globalism / Great Reset –
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a handbook for global central banks regarding the development and implementation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
The IMF’s “Central Bank Digital Currency Virtual Handbook” published last week pointed out that the increased use of CBDCs can “reduce dollarization” of the global economy—a situation where countries move away from relying on the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency. De-dollarization would push up borrowing costs in the United States, making loans expensive for businesses and individuals, thus affecting economic growth. Stock market values can also crash, reducing the savings and investments of Americans.
https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/fintech/central-bank-digital-currency/virtual-handbook
OBSERVATION - The globalists are going to push this thru no matter what the citizenry says. On top of this is the concept of “de-dollarization” of the global economy - a switch that would cripple the US economy as the dollar still is the currency of international trade, though facing competition by BRICS and other arrangements.
Economy –
Moody’s, one of the main financial rating agencies, has just downgraded its outlook on several U.S. banking giants. The rating agency provided a negative outlook for J.P. Morgan & Chase, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America.
The agency cited extremely high debt in a high-interest-rate environment as the main driver of the negative outlook.
OBSERVATION - This won’t be announced on the MSM any time soon, but there is growing danger to the big banks due to the high fed rates.
***
On Monday’s broadcast of CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged that “Americans still see increases in some important prices, including food, from where we were prior to the pandemic.” And responded to poor polling data on the economy by stating that
“it’s our job to explain to Americans what President Biden has done to improve the economy. I think as inflation comes down, prices stop rising, and the labor market remains strong, Americans will begin to see that we have made meaningful progress.”
Yellen answered, “So, I think we’re making considerable progress in bringing inflation down, and we saw this clearly in last week’s news, 12-month headline inflation is down to 3.2%. That’s down almost 6 percentage points from its high. But, although prices in general are rising much less quickly, Americans still see increases in some important prices, including food, from where we were prior to the pandemic. And this remains notable to people who go to the store and shop or rents — although they’re rising less quickly now — are certainly higher than they were before the pandemic. So, I do think we’re making considerable progress in bringing inflation down, but Americans do notice higher prices from what they used to be accustomed to. And, importantly, we’re making this inflation progress while maintaining a strong economy and a strong labor market. So, that’s good news for Americans.”
OBSERVATION - Yellen essentially admits that the PR happy face blitz the regime has put out isn’t gaining traction. Its because it is bogus. The economy is not all smiley faces. Last night went to the grocery store and looked at the $50 in food, in two small bags, remember back to the Before Years that that much money would fill half the cart.
RELATED - The Conference Board’s index of leading economic indicators has now fallen for 19 months in a row. When something happens for 19 consecutive months, that is definitely a trend. The leading economic index fell 0.8 percent in October, the Conference Board said Monday. The LEI is based on 10 indicators that tend to forecast the direction of the economy.
They (See Yellen above) tell us that inflation is low, but if it was still measured the way that it was back in 1980, the official rate of inflation would be well into double digit territory. And they tell us that the unemployment rate is low, (again see Yellen above) but if honest numbers were being used the official rate of unemployment would be about 25 percent right now.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
New York Rep. Dan Goldman spoke with MSNBC’s Jen Psaki about the recent developments in Donald Trump’s legal battles over the weekend; Goldman simultaneously spoke out about the dangers of Trump’s rhetoric while calling for the former President to be “eliminated.”
Yesterday, he was walking back the comment he made against former President Trump over the weekend that sparked a social media firestorm.
“Yesterday on TV, I mistakenly used the wrong word to express the importance for America that Donald Trump doesn’t become President again,” Rep. Daniel Goldman of New York posted on X on Monday.
“While he must be defeated, I certainly wish no harm to him and do not condone political violence. I apologize for the poor choice of words.”
OBSERVATION - Freudian slip. The left have been calling for the execution - literally - of Trump for the past several months. Goldman’s call for ‘execution’ is just another vocalization of that desire. It is apparent they are losing the campaign and legal assaults are not working. This leaves your basic marxist with one choice in their view - seeing violence to its logical end - assassination. Lord help us if they try this.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
USS Vinson at Busan, SK.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
United States has now hit its highest-ever childhood vaccine exemption rate in history, according to the CDC.
OBSERVATION - I suspect due in large part to the growing skepticism about the safety of the vaccines given the wuhan jab aftermath. Evidence that the CDC et al are losing the information war with the real science people who are exposing the massive deaths and injuries by the jab.
***
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is suing Pfizer for fraud.
POLITICAL FRONT –
It on. Twitter/X Corp has officially filed a lawsuit against Media Matters. Pundits from across the sector are saying it isn’t going to go well for MM.
District Judge Mark Pittman, a Donald Trump appointee with a history of rulings favorable to conservative causes, will oversee the high-profile lawsuit . So far he has -
1. Ordered the FDA to expedite the release of Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine documents.
2. Struck down President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan on November 10, 2022.
RELATED - In addition to Missouri’s AG inquiry, now Texas AG Paxton has opened a criminal investigation of Media Matters . “The Office of the Attorney General (”OAG”) is opening an investigation into Media Matters for potential fraudulent activity,” the letter said.
“We are examining the issue closely to ensure that the public has not been deceived by the schemes of radical left-wing organizations who would like nothing more than to limit freedom by reducing participation in the public square,” Attorney General Paxton said.
Civil AND criminal charges enroute to MM. They FA and are about to FO.
***
The Arizona Attorney General, Kris Mayes, has threatened legal action against Mojave County officials if they dare to hand-count ballots in the 2024 election.
In the AG’s letter to Mojave County, Mayes purports to be concerned that verifying the accuracy of ballots would ‘undermine Arizona’s democratic process.’
OBSERVATION - Cross ref to CW2 as well. Great fear that corrupt programming of these voting machines will be uncovered by the leftists.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden abruptly left the Thanksgiving turkey pardon. He did his weird jog in a beeline for the White House.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
Was monitoring at a High Alert level, but with Iran crossing Hamas under the bus, the threat has been lowered.
China –
Leading Taiwanese Presidential Candidate Lai Ching-te announced former Taiwanese Representative to the United States Hsiao Bi-Khim as his running mate on the Democratic People’s Party (DPP) ticket. Lai Ching-te is a pro-independence candidate and Bi-Khim is considered the same. Taiwan’s presidential election is scheduled for January 2024 and remains a potential flashpoint for a conflict with China.
OBSERVATION - Just how severe China’s response may be to the election of Lai Ching-te is yet to be seen. Two major exercises by the Chinese navy this year appear to be designed to test a blockade approach to forcing Taiwan to capitulate. Not a severely dangerous as an all out amphibious, but teethy enough to attempt to deter the US and Pacific allies from breaking the blockade.
If current trends continue, biden will be in a very poor position to win reelection against Trump. China doesn’t want to deal with Trump but already has biden and potential replacement - Newscum - wrapped around their little finger. They could get away with a 2024 blockade while the US is focused on a potentially very violent 2024 election run-up. Even the space between the election and inauguration would be enough to get the plan in place.
North/South Korea –
North Korea has officially notified Japan that a satellite launch could happen as soon as Wednesday.
Navigational Warnings have appeared that also indicte a new North Korean satellite launch attempt. Window starts tomorrow 15:00 UTC. Areas are same as earlier this year
***
USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) Nimitz-class aircraft carrier is making port call at Busan, South Korea - November 21, 2023. This follows the same by the USS Reagan a few months ago.
Japan –
See North/South Korea above.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Vladimir Putin will test the world’s largest ballistic missile by flying it over the South Pole, a shocking report by state media has revealed before being rapidly censored.
The Russian dictator is determined to flex his nuclear muscle to the West and will put his first regiment to be armed with the apocalypse 208-ton intercontinental nuclear weapon - the RS-28 Sarmat, aka ‘Satan 2’ - on ‘combat duty’ next month.
Putin’s own state news agency TASS reported that ‘even a truncated LCI [flight development tests], and assuming all launches are successful, would require several more launches, including via the South Pole’.
This state news agency’s claim over the South Pole was hastily censored from the report but remains in cached versions.
NOTE - The RS-28 Sarmat, aka ‘Satan 2’, has had a very limited number of test flights and there is concerns that the system is being deployed before all the bugs can be worked out.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Much of eastern Ukraine will see their first accumulating snowfall of the season next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy night for Ukraine air defenses, shooting down 9 of 10 Shahed drones overnight, 1 Iskander-K cruise missile. Russian army also launched 4 S-300 missiles at Donetsk direction. Targets central and western Ukraine as well as the Kyiv area. Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down a drone over Rostov region and a suspected drone strike hitting Sevastopol, Crimea.
Other than that, the mud has gotten really deep and gooey, bringing much of the ground offensive operations to a grinding halt.
Outlook —-
Weather dominated lull in most of the fighting, but that isn’t really stopping all of it. However, nothing significant expected in the near term.
Winter and mud will more severely impact Russian forces than Ukraine because Ukraine is better supplied for winter operations than Russia. Last winter was brutal on Russian forces and this winter projects to be even worse. Go back to the annuals of WW1 to see that non-combat injuries from living in muddy, wet trenches generated more causalities than actual combat itself. Add to this Russian logistic lines are even more vulnerable than last winter due to the arrival of ATACAMs, and British cruise missiles. The potential addition of F-16s to the mix won’t help Russia either.
Europe / NATO General –
“NATO members Turkiye, Romania and Bulgaria are nearing an agreement to create a joint force to clear mines drifting into their parts of the Black Sea as part of the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”, - Bloomberg
***
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday that it had lodged a formal complaint over Finland’s closure of four border crossings.
Finland said that the decision to close the crossings was to stem the flow of asylum seekers. Finnish authorities have claimed that migrants are purposely being ushered towards the border by Russia, allegations the Kremlin has denied.
Finnish President Sauli Niinisto said that the deportation of applicants who did not meet the criteria for asylum was becoming “impossible.”
“Deportation of migrants who don’t meet the criteria for asylum has become impossible, so entering the border means you stay in that country if you want to,” he said during a state visit to Poland.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Reports of a developing hostage release and fighting ‘pause’ continue.
- IDF continues to press into surrounded areas of N Gaza, with fierce fighting when encountering Hamas elements.
- More videos of hostages being drug into the Shifa Hospital as well as tunnels in various hospital complexes released by IDF.
GENERAL ——————————-
Deal could be announced as soon as today by Qatar for the release of hostages:- 50 hostages/ 300 Palestinian prisoners from Israel; -4-5 day pause; - Israeli surveillance drones to stop over northern Gaza for at least 6 hours/day.
Israel has not commented. Earlier PM Benjamin Netanyahu said his country would not stop fighting until hostages were brought home.
Hamas, in regards to the alledged deal is using the Arabic word- “hudna” - is associated with a non-permanent kind of pause.
OBSERVATION - Clearly designed for Hamas leaders to get out of the encirclement in N Gaza and infiltrate out of S Gaza and into Egypt. I find it hard to believe that Israel will accept anything but full, unconditional release of the hostages as they have the momentum and full tactical advantage now.
Israel has obtained footage of Hamas terrorists taking a kidnapped Israeli boy to the Hamas headquarters in the Al-Shifa hospital.
Unconfirmed reports that IDF forces have broken through fortified door in tunnel under Shifa, entering underground areas below hospital.
The Israeli “Iron Beam” Laser-Defense System has reportedly conducted its first successful combat interception of a rocket launched from the Gaza Strip.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Heavy fighting and intense airstrikes are reported to be ongoing across Northern Gaza right now as both Hamas and the IDF are likely trying to get their last few “kicks” in before the truce/ceasefire begins in what is now believed to be sometime in the coming hours.
Israeli tanks have pushed far into northern Gaza and have now surrounded the Indonesian Hospital and the Hamas terrorists holed up inside.
Israeli forces are close to seizing full control of Zaytun district, a key Hamas stronghold in Gaza City; Israeli forces are fighting in Hamas strongholds east of Gaza City to demolish remaining pockets of resistance
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced Monday that a rocket factory had been discovered beneath a mosque in Gaza, together with a variety of deadly weapons hidden at the holy site.
NOTE- Not going to belabor this, Hamas has fully demonstrated their flaunting of internationally recognized ‘laws of warfare’ by using such facilities for war purposes.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah has gradually taken over the attacks in the north. Initially, it allowed Hamas and affiliated groups operating in southern Lebanon to be the primary attack force, but recently it has been Hezbollah launching the attacks.
Israel continues to hit back with artillery and air strikes.
Concern is rising once again that the intensity of the exchanges is on the rise and that further escalation could cause a much larger conflict.
WEST BANK——————————-
Palestinian militia fighters engaged Israeli forces in eight small arms clashes across the WestBank on Nov. 20. Hamas & the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine continue to call for attacks against Israeli soldiers and civilians in the West Bank.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Iran-backed Houthi terrorist movement warned that it would continue its attacks until the ‘demise of Israel’ after the Houthis seized an Israel-i-linked ship in the Red Sea.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Continued calls for cease fire, blaming Israel for genocidal attacks on hospitals, etc.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - The drama continues to center on various hospitals now that IDF has entered and is in the process of securing them. The location and exploration of the main bunker complexes is still in its early stages, but The Hamas command bunker below the hospital is reportedly as deep as 200 feet and consists of multiple levels with deep tunnels reaching out to other areas in N Gaza.
I’ve got mixed thoughts on the alleged pending hostage exchange and operational hold. From the announced stance by Israel, it falls far short of its stated demands - full, unconditional release of the hostages. It would give Hamas 5 days to regroup - and the demand that no IAF surveillance be conducted as well - covering repositioning and rearming Hamas and affiliated groups into better positions. Same would allow them to reload/repair rocket launching sites for a post “pause’ rocket blitz.
50 is also only about 1/4th of the total number of hostages, permitting Hamas to play the hostages for operational ‘pauses’ / battle delay for months. I can’t see how such a deal will help Israel’s tactical and strategic goals. Recent clearly documented evidence that Hamas has and continues to use hospitals, mosques, schools, etc for military purposes has blunted the lies of the Hamas support MSM, so the PR press of recent has crested for the moment.
Lots yet to play out. Hamas has also commonly played this game to get some hopes up only to come up with some excuse to cancel an exchange and find a way to blame Israel - psyops against the drive of the Jewish people to get their loved ones back.
We will see just how this plays out today.
Lebanon -
See Israel above.
Syria -
See Israel above on latest.
Central / South America General-
Javier Milei, the new president of Argentina. One item that he has brought back to the radar screen is ownership of the Falkland Islands / Malvinas.