Though I didn’t post yesterday, I always screen my various information/intel feeds. I’ve included some key ones from yesterday and rolled into todays post.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The U.N. General Assembly has voted overwhelmingly for the organization to develop a global tax framework, despite last-minute attempts to derail the plan from wealthy countries including the United Kingdom, United States, and the entire European Union bloc.
In what advocates hailed as a “historic victory,” countries voted 125 to 48 to adopt a resolution tabled by Nigeria last month on behalf of African member states, calling for a U.N. tax convention that could drastically change how global tax rules are set.
Nine countries abstained from the vote, which was held in New York on Nov. 22.
The OECD (a group of 38 mostly high-income countries that includes the U.K. and the U.S. ) counts among its achievements the 2021 global tax deal between more than 130 countries, which included a minimum 15% corporate tax rate for multinational corporations. At the time, it was hailed by negotiators as a landmark step towards curbing corporate tax avoidance, but its implementation has been beset by delays.
OBSERVATION - Remember the motto “No taxation without representation”. This taxation scheme has been in the works for a while. What is interesting is that as with other globalist timelines, 2024 is being targeted for things to go into effect.
Economy –
Some reports that Black Friday is not generating the turnout businesses have hoped for. Last year saw a similar slow start that picked up later in the day and shopping season.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Thursday, pro-Palestinian protestors took over the Macy parade route in New York and attempted to shut it down. Some even glued themselves to the pavement. They were joined by anti-oil activists as well.
The Seven Circles Alliance, reportedly organized the protest, and posted a video of their members being hauled off by the NYPD. They claimed that the protest was “In an urgent call to action, Seven Circles Alliance, a coalition of climate, social justice and political activists.
NYC PD quickly responded and removed the protestors. One source indicated that there were 10 arrested.
OBSERVATION - Quick response by the NYD indicates that they were ready for disruptions. No word on how the hands of the glued protestors are feeling today.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
After initial alarms of terrorism, more data has come out to rule out the explosion of the car at the Rainbow Bridge US/Canadian border crossing being such. Investigators believe a New York man and his wife were the two people killed in a car that crashed and exploded at a US-Canada border crossing near Niagara Falls on Wednesday, law enforcement sources say, and the FBI sees no link to terrorism.
Investigators believe the man who died had plans to attend a KISS concert in Canada, but when it was canceled he went to a casino in the US instead. The crash occurred sometime after the couple left the casino, the sources said.
NOTE - this places the vehicle on the way BACK to Canada.
The car was clearly seen on CCTV traveling around 80-100 mph, hitting a curb while apparently going around the Customs gate, flying thru the air until impacting near a secondary inspection area. Still some discussion over just why the vehicle exploded in such a manner upon impact.
***
Palestinian protesters have targeted the home of a Jewish organization president in Brentwood, California during Thanksgiving. Masked activists threw smoke grenades at the Jewish man’s house, poured fake blood and placed fake baby body bags on his driveway and lawn.
The activists are from the ‘Peoples City Council’ activism group and tweeted that they were giving the Jewish organization president a ‘holiday wake up call.’
OBSERVATION - Growing trend of violence being directed towards jewish individuals and organizations.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
On Nov. 21, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, in coordination with the Armed Forces of the Philippines, began joint maritime and aerial patrols in the South China Sea.
The joint patrols aim to “enhance regional security and foster a seamless partnership with the United States in safeguarding our shared interests,” Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos said.
OBSERVATION - Key question is will US vessels enter strongly disputed islands like the ones China is attempting to blockade Philippines naval supply vessels from.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
Scientists have raised concern over a mysterious “pneumonia like” illness that has left hospitals in China “overwhelmed with sick children”.
An alert was issued through ProMed – a large surveillance database which monitors disease outbreaks– warning of an epidemic of “undiagnosed pneumonia” in children.
Taiwanese news website FTV News said that children were presenting to hospitals in Beijing and Liaoning – 500 miles northeast – with symptoms including a high fever and inflammation of the lungs, but no cough.
A Beijing citizen told the outlet: “Many, many (children) are hospitalised. They don’t cough and have no symptoms. They just have a high temperature and many develop pulmonary nodules.”
He added: “Now you are not allowed to report to school. If you have any symptoms such as fever, cold, cough and then you are hospitalised, you can ask for leave.”
Local media reported that the lobby of Dalian Children’s Hospital in Liaoning province was also “full of sick children” receiving intravenous drips.
A staff member of the hospital said: “Patients have to wait in line for 2 hours, and we are all in the emergency department and there are no general outpatient clinics.”
The Covid-19 outbreak was initially flagged up to global scientists in late December 2019 via a ProMed alert in late December, which had similarly warned of a respiratory illness sweeping through the city of Wuhan.
An editor’s note posted by ProMed on Wednesday said that the FTV News report suggested a “widespread outbreak of an undiagnosed respiratory illness”.
OBSERVATION - This looks like a real thing. Let me remind you all that it was also ProMed in December of 2019 that first alerted the world to a virus outbreak in China that would later be called COVID. Key concern - wuhan was basically a non-player with children, in the vast, vast majority of the cases being as strong a a normal cold or flu. This bug seems to be trying to change that - targeting children.
This is so recent that other medical organizations have little to go on, so it isn’t a given that drugs like Ivermectin would be helpful. If this does explode in a pandemic manner, fully expect the wuhan protocols to be forced upon us once again.
Biden / Harris Watch –
For the first time ever, biden’s presidential proclamation for Thanksgiving makes absolutely no mention of God.
China –
On Nov. 21, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, in coordination with the Armed Forces of the Philippines, began joint maritime and aerial patrols in the South China Sea.
The joint patrols aim to “enhance regional security and foster a seamless partnership with the United States in safeguarding our shared interests,” Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos said.
The joint patrols are to be conducted on the sea and in the air in the West Philippine Sea, an area of the South China Sea that includes the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. However, China claims the area as its own, with recent maps showing a 10-dash line covering the entire South China Sea, as well as Taiwan. Aside from constructing artificial islands with military installations on them, Beijing has also repeatedly harassed Philippine fishermen and swarmed the area with its maritime militia. Within the last year, several provocative incidents have occurred between Manila and Beijing in the West Philippine Sea.
North/South Korea –
North Korea said it would send stronger armed forces and new weapons at its border with South Korea, state media reported, after Seoul suspended part of a 2018 military agreement between the two Koreas in protest of Pyongyang’s launch of a spy satellite.
In a statement carried by the KCNA news agency, North Korea’s defense ministry said it would restore all military measures it had halted under the deal aimed at de-escalating tension between the two Koreas.
The suspended North-South pact, known as the Comprehensive Military Agreement, was signed at a 2018 summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and then South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/north-korea/2023/11/22/id/1143329/
OBSERVATION - NK has released a photo of Guam that they say their satellite captured. The image showed the whole island, making it hard from a general sense to know what level of resolution the system has. Even modern, commercial satellites have developed pretty good resolution, so it would be safe to say that it has at least that level.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Economic Impact –
Russia is having maintenance on passenger jets done in Iran and Russia, undocumented, without proper parts, without tracking, and without quality control. This is due principally to sanctions prohibiting authorized parts and services for Russia airliners.
This means that aircraft will lose certification to fly to MANY countries. so even after sanctions are lifted some day there is no way to get the aircraft ready to fly to the EU, US, or any other modern country with modern aircraft regulations. The situation is allegedly so that that some claim it would have to probably buy a entire new fleet.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20 -40 degree range with rain and/or snow across the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine launched one of the biggest drone attacks on the Moscow-annexed Crimean Peninsula since the full-scale war that started with Russia’s invasion 21 months ago, Russian officials said Friday.
Avdiivka -
Ukraine estimates that as of a couple of weeks ago, Russia had assembled a force of 40,000 mostly reserves/call-ups for the fight to take Avdiivka. Fighting here has been the main source of Russian causalities being reported, with upwards of 1000/day being casualties. Do the math, that 40K force may well have been attritted down to 30k in the course of that two weeks - 25%. With the mud limiting armor/tanks, most of the current attacks are dismounted with little to no armor support - making them vulnerable to Ukraine artillery.
This recent wave of attacks on Avdiivka began on Oct. 10, using heavy bombardments and reportedly taking heavy losses.
Kherson Axis -
Ukrainian artillery hit and destroyed armored vehicles and assault groups of Russian forces south of Krynky as Ukraine forces continue to expand their beachhead.
Russian Territory –
Ukraine drone suspected of hitting a power substation near Moscow causing a large power outage
Outlook —-
While some of the action may appear to be spectacular, gains by both sides have been marginal. Muddy conditions are getting real bad, real fast. Russia is gambling that they can get away with shifting a lot of resources and manpower to the Adviivka region without Ukraine sensing weaknesses in Russian defenses elsewhere - being bogged down by the mud as well.
Much of the fighting over the next couple months will be focused on establishing tactical terrain advantage from which to kick off winter offensives on frozen ground, when cross country mobility is generally available again until spring.
Soon the deeper, war of attrition and civilian power grids will take higher priority.
Europe / NATO General –
Patience with the mobs of immigrants arriving from N Africa and the middle east has exploded in another European country - this time Ireland. Violent riots broke out after an N African migrant stabbed 5 at a school in Dublin. Within hours a massive crowd was rioting. Irish rioters set the Holiday Inn Express Hotel in Dublin on fire. The government is using the hotel to house asylum seekers.
Irish police officials are blaming soccer hooligans “driven by far-right ideology” for the anti-migrant outburst. Supporters are demanding the Irish government curb their migration plan, which still aims to take in refugees and asylum seekers from the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.
OBSERVATION - Early prediction, given the strong anti-migrant sentiments that have been growing the past couple months in Europe, I expect that civil disturbances will be on the increase, with locals turning on these migrants and govts forced to either follow the will of the people and begin mass deportations or fight against its citizens.
***
IN RELATED - The nationalist party PVV has just become the largest party in the Netherlands with 37 seats! Geert Wilders riding an anti-immigrant, anti-
WEF agenda is poised to become the new PM. In addition to the move to begin mass deportations, the attack on dutch farmers looks to be abated.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Operational ‘pause’ sets in after a day delay.
- Hostages selected for release at 4 PM Israel time.
- Some gun battles persisted past the deadline, but so far is holding
- Rocket attack alert shortly after the deadline was a false alert.
GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli media reports that the release of the children will be delayed 24 hours because the agreement was not signed yet by Hamas and Qatar.
Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear on Wednesday that the ‘pause’ applies only to Gaza. Hamas leadership elsewhere, Netanyahu declared, are fair game at any time, and he has ordered the Mossad to go after the two Hamas leaders living high on the hog elsewhere.
***
Western media mocked Israel when it said there are tunnels under Shifa hospital. Today they are eating crow as news crews were granted initial visits to the extensive bunker complex - and there are portions still being investigated and cleared.
***
IDF found personal items in the Shifa Hospital bunker complex that are linked to the hostages.
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
An operational ‘pause’ in the fighting in Gaza took effect at 0700 local this morning. So far it has held. Netanyahu reiterates that once the hostages have been exchanged, the war will continue.
First group of hostages to be released at 4 PM Israel time.
In total, Israel will receive 50 female and children hostages held by Hamas. In exchange, Hamas is requiring that Israel releases 150 prisoners.
The majority of the prisoners being held by Israel are between 17 and 18-years-old. Many of these prisoners are being held in Israel on attempted murder charges.
IRC reports that Hamas refuses to allow representatives to physically visit the hostages as the agreement dictates. Officials told that the IRC would be told what their ‘condigtion’ is by Hamas representatives.
***
Israel arrested the director of Shifa hospital. He stands accused of aid and abetting Hamas in using the hospital for terrorism.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Thursday, Hezbollah claims responsibility for firing 48 rockets at an Israeli army base near Safed. IDF reports that six were intercepted. It is estimated that this is the heaviest barrage from Lebanon since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7.
Hezbollah has claimed 22 attacks against Israeli targets along the Lebanon-Israel border today.
Combat with Hezbollah is not covered under the Hamas Gaza ‘pause’.
SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
IAF airstrikes on probable Hezbollah/Iranian targets.
WEST BANK——————————-
IDF/police continue to seek out and arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists. Action is not affected by the Hamas ‘pause’
Israeli Security forces storm the town of Kafr Qalil, south of Nablus.
Israeli army thwarted weapons smuggling near the Jordanian border. Arms smuggling has been a significant reason for the terrorist-led uprising in the West Bank over the last two and a half years
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Islamic Resistance in Iraq: We targeted the U.S. base in the Al-Omar oil field in Syria in response to the enemy’s crimes in Gaza
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
USS Thomas Hudner (DDG-116) shot down multiple one-way attack drones launched from Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen, U.S. Central Command announced on X, the site formerly known as Twitter, Wednesday night.
This is the second time Thomas Hudner shot down drones launched from Yemen in two weeks. The guided-missile destroyer also shot down a drone in the Red Sea on Nov. 15, USNI News previously reported.
Thomas Hudner shot down the drone while on patrol in the Red Sea. No injuries or damage were reported. CENTCOM did not provide additional details.
Hudner is part of the Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group, but is operating separately from the strike group.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - A lot will depend on if Hamas can maintain their cease fire and promptly deliver the hostages. There is a clause of an exchange of an additional day of ‘pause’ for each 10 hostages released. I doubt Hamas will take up that part of the agreement - except to try to leverage more ‘pause’ without turning over more hostages. Netanyahu has made it clear, the fight is back on once the exchange is finished - and that would include ALL surviving hostages.
The fallout to world media nay sayers in regards to the Shifa and other bunkers grows, but those media sources are putting their best face forward. Some reports Netanyahu is looking at some sort of punitive actions against some for their false reporting.
False reporting source now appears to the Head of the Shifa hospital, who is in Israel custody. International groups that worked with him at Shifa are also under the crosshairs for conspiracy and abetting Hamas actions at Shifa as well as other sites.
Hezbollah increased its attacks on Israel and the momentum suggests that further escalation is possible.
While the ‘pause’ gives Hamas a chance to regroup and re-arm, it also gives Israel time to better process the intelligence it has collected form the captured command bunkers so far as well as to resupply and reposition its forces for resumption of operations.
There is also little doubt that Mossad is tapping into its array of sources to track where the hostages are coming from in Gaza to better focus IDF operations as necessary.
Syria -
IAF launched airstrikes in Damascus area overnight.
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IDF found personal items in the Shifa Hospital bunker complex that are linked to the hostages.
...
While the ‘pause’ gives Hamas a chance to regroup and re-arm, it also gives Israel time to better process the intelligence it has collected form the captured command bunkers so far as well as to resupply and reposition its forces for resumption of operations.
There is also little doubt that Mossad is tapping into its array of sources ...
Israel will benefit more from the pause than Hamas because the Israelis/Mossad are smarter, more capable and on the side of righteousness.
Economy –
Still waiting to hear on Black Friday numbers, but speculation I’ve been reading suggests that is has been ‘black’ with far lower sales than hoped for.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Women’s Declaration International (WDI), a group of volunteer women from across the world dedicated to protecting women’s sex-based rights, were trying to hold an event in support of women’s rights at a public library in Portland, when they were attacked by male Transtifa activists - with several women being sent to the hospital.
OBSERVATION - While a relatively small event, this furthers my point that the Transtifa elements are more inclined towards violence than your general “-tifa” elements.
***
Pro-Hamas protests were conducted across the country - in many instances in an effort to disrupt traditional Black Friday shopping.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Follow up on the initially reported car explosion at the Rainbow Bridge border crossing. It is being investigated that the car - a $300K Bentley- suffered accelerator getting stuck. Similar was a subject of a recall earlier in the year, but reportedly did’t include the model that crashed.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics – HEIGHTENED ALERT STATUS
Following up on this new China outbreak. Chinese authorities say it is a bacterial infection, Mycoplasma pneumonia. Other sources in China say it could be new strains of viruses.
WHO has now issued a call for all of China to institute masks, social distancing and quarantining. wuhan 2.0
RELATED -
Chinese state newspaper Global Times acknowledged a surge in respiratory disease in the country, particularly among children, which has alarmed international observers – but blamed it on an “immunity gap” in the population, caused by China’s brutal “zero-covid” lockdowns.
W.H.O. insisted in a statement on Thursday that it had no evidence of any new diseases circulating in China.
“In the current outbreak of respiratory illness, the reported symptoms are common to several respiratory diseases and, as of now, at the present time, Chinese surveillance and hospital systems report that the clinical manifestations are caused by known pathogens in circulation,” the W.H.O. said in a statement. “Mycoplasma pneumoniae is a common respiratory pathogen and a common cause of paediatric pneumonia, and is readily treated with antibiotics.”
China’s mandatory lockdowns, forced imprisonment of thousands of people in quarantine camps, and other measures against the Wuhan coronavirus could have led to the nation’s children being exposed to fewer diseases on a regular schedule – and left them with weaker immunity.
OBSERVATION - A similar observations has been expressed here in the US for a couple years now. The childhood years are critical to the development of immunity to common bugs and the two years of lockdown/social distancing has denied a lot of that. That said - we are not out of the woods on what this is or potential impacts here.
***
US attorney Tom Renz says unclassified DARPA documents confirm SARS-CoV-2 was created by the EcoHealth Alliance at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, coordinated by Peter Daszak, and was designed to be deliberately toxic, resulting in 6.5 million deaths.
OBSERVATION - I’m trying to see confirmation on the authenticity of the document in today’s age of fakes. If true, it was clear that by the time of the document - 2021 - the govt had full knowledge of this virus.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden called for Americans to “come together,” called conservative opinions “crazy MAGA nonsense” on same day
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Both Harris and biden have been getting roasted on the interwebs for their thanksgiving posts showing both cooking on gas stoves while their administration pushes to ban all.
***
A legend in his own mind, biden is now claiming that the reason Hamas brutally attacked Israel is because he was close to ushering in peace in the Middle East.
Illegal Immigration –
A recent report has exposed a staggering surge in Chinese nationals attempting illegal entry into the United States via the southern border, with over 24,000 individuals intercepted in 2023 alone.
This number surpasses the combined total of Chinese migrants apprehended over the past 10 years, marking an unprecedented spike in this demographic’s attempts to enter the country illegally.
OBSERVATION - Some attribute the surge to very bad economic conditions, but there is a strong concern that these are more of a unconventional warfare threat to the US should China invade Taiwan.
***
The massive illegal immigrant problem in blue cities like New York, Chicago and Boston is about to get much worse. It’s one thing to have people sleeping on sidewalks and in tents in the spring and summer. Winter is a different story.
Now that cold weather is coming, these cities are starting to panic about where they’re going to put all these people.
In harsh winters, cities sometimes have a hard time finding places to put all the snow once it has been plowed. Finding warm and dry places for people to live is a much bigger challenge.
OBSERVATION - Pre-illegal surge, these cities had their hand full with just the generic homeless. Now with enhanced numbers of homeless due to the biden economy (or lack thereof) and illegals the matter is orders of magnitude worse. The fuse is lit as these cities are giving increasing priority to the illegals over homeless citizens.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
*****
Kerch Bridge update –
RUMINT - Russia is discussing construction of an underwater tunnel that would connect Russia and temporarily occupied Crimea (with the help of private Chinese companies). This was initially discussed by Russia before the Kerch bridge project was started. Now given the bridge has been hit twice, the move to a more ‘secure’ crossing means is being considered
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20 -40 degree range with rain and/or snow across the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched the largest drone attack against the Kyiv region since the start of the war. Overnight, A total of 75 Shahed’s were launched of which 74 were shot down. At least six regions were affected by the attack, but most focused on the Kyiv region. In addition, a single Kh-59 missile was destroyed in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Outlook —-
Mega drone attack. What’s missing are the more modern cruise missiles launched by sea and air. The Black Sea is currently in the midst of a very severe storm with massive waves being reported. That likely keep the missile cruiser in port (along with fears of Ukraine seaborne drones). The Russian strategic bombers continue to remain silent and on the ground as well.
The success of the Ukraine ADA was remarkable, but then Russia attacked the beehive swarm of the ADA defense and not outlying areas with lower density of systems. Russia is also painting the drones black to make them less visible using their night attacks.
Mud rules ground operations.
OSINT and other analysts are noting that the Russian artillery support is getting even worse. Initially had an greater than 10 to 1 advantage, it is now down closer to parity due to a number of reasons
- Ukraine hunter / killer drone teams prioritizing artillery targets
- Ukraine far better counter battery fire
- Western artillery outranging Russian tubes
- Russia having to rely more and more on WW2 vintage D20- and D30 towed artillery to replace the self propelled units
Russian milbloggers continually bemoan that they no longer have massive artillery support for their ground attacks - multiplying troop losses. N Korean munitions have a bad reputation too and have reportedly killed many Russians. Loss of artillery during the season of mud leaves the attacking Russian forces wide open to Ukraine fire of all sorts.
Europe / NATO General –
Tensions in Ireland are running high in Dublin for the 2nd straight night. Violence and damage at a minimum.
OBSERVATION - I wonder why they are focusing of destroying businesses - and not directly assaulting the immigrants they claim to abhor?
***
Estonia deploys its military forces to start building barriers on border crossings with Russia to stop illegal migrants from crossing the border.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- First round of hostage - terrorist exchanges conducted. Second round expected
- Operational ‘pause’ remains intact.
GENERAL ——————————-
Hamas terrorists released 25 hostages on Friday morning.
- 13 Israeli children captured during October 7 raid
- 12 Thai nationals captured by the terror group during their brutal raid inside Israel.
39 Palestinian prisoners — women and children in both cases were released in exchange.
Hamas is still holding around 215 other hostages
Second round of exchanges expected today. Israeli authorities say 14 hostages held by Hamas will be released on Saturday.
As part of the Qatar-brokered deal, Israel will release 42 Palestinian prisoners
GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Operation pause holds.
LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight drone from Lebanon shot down as well as a Hezbollah SAM shot down by IDF missiles.
WEST BANK——————————-
IDF/police continue to seek out and arrest Hamas and affiliated terrorists. Action is not affected by the Hamas ‘pause’
Palestine TV: The Israeli army shot two rioters during clashes in Qabatiya, south of Jenin
Israeli Security Forces storm the Shuafat camp in Jerusalem.
NOTE - these are not tented compounds as the term ‘camp’ would imply, but constructed buildings as found in the region.
“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
AP reports that an Israeli-owned container ship, the CMA CGM Symi, has been struck by an Iranian suicide drone in the Indian Ocean.
The AP defense source said the Malta-flagged vessel was suspected to have been targeted by a triangle-shaped, bomb-carrying Shahed-136 drone while in international waters.
“The drone exploded, causing damage to the ship but not injuring any of its crew.”
Additional word that an UI vessel claiming to represent the Yemeni govt challenged another cargo vessel in the Red Sea region.
OBSERVATION - This is the second attack on an internationally flagged vessel - no doubt the attackers were Houthi’s. This may spur the US into launching a strike against Houthi facilities as well as draw the international naval forces into a more focused anti-Houthi operation, expanding their anti-piracy operations.
INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
International press, while pushing for a more substantial cease fire is being forced to face the brutality of the treatment the hostages received at the hands of Hamas.
FORECAST ————————-
Bottom Line Up Front (BLUF) - A lot will depend on if Hamas can maintain their cease fire and promptly deliver the hostages. Both Hamas and IDF are using the period to rearm and evaluate their next moves. Israel has the advantage with all the intel material collected so far identifying remaining Hamas command and troop centers that will likely be hit hard once fighting resumes. Hamas is too torn apart to mount much of a defense and likely has had much of its forces retreat into to S Gaza where the human shields they rely upon have moved as well.
One particularly note - Israel parliament is processing a new law mandating the death penalty for acts of terror. The islamic radicals of Hamas et al should take note of the consequences of their attack - next round there may be far fewer prisoners available to exchange for hostages.
Houthi’s are getting bolder and need to be hit in the nose to prevent more chaos towards shipping in general and any ship associated to israel in specific.
Black Swans
Huge ‘sunspot archipelago’ 15 times wider than Earth is spotted on the Sun - and scientists warn it could bombard our planet with solar flares capable of causing devastating blackouts.
OBSERVATION - Solar CME (Coronal Mass Ejections) have hit the earth numerous times in history. When they interact with the earth’s magnetosphere, they create a specific electro-magnet pulse (EMP) that is separate from that created by a nuclear explosion. It is longer duration and is collected by railroads, and power transmission lines - surging the voltage and with the capability of taking out power. NOAA classifies them on their size - and the ones to worry about are those listed as X class.
The most famous of these events is the Carrington event, 1 to 2 September 1859, that caused some telegraph stations and railroad lines to catch fire from the power surge the rails and electrical wired collected. It was rated at an X45 storm.
The most recent example is the March 1989 geomagnetic storm that occurred as part of severe to extreme solar storms during early to mid March 1989, the most notable being a geomagnetic storm that struck Earth on March 13. This geomagnetic storm caused a nine-hour outage of Hydro-Québec’s electricity transmission system. The onset time was exceptionally rapid. It was much smaller than the Carrington event at X7.
The current sunspot cycle has been unusually active and this is a very large complex of sunspots. In theory we would have some warning of an earth directed CME of such magnitude to threaten our power grids. The question is are the power grids ready? The damage would be to the massive transformers as key substations and power plants due to the power surge. It is untested to see if new safeguards will provide adequate protection.
Unlike a potential nuclear EMP, our electronics would be safe as there isn’t enough material to collect and concentrate the spike of power. But houses could be out of power for extensive periods.
As a potential TEOTWAWKI event, knowing a big one is enroute and having preparations in place to mitigate the loss of power and potential impacts if long term is part of it. These are relatively high repeating events, worth knowing about and paying attention.