Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats
An attack on a corrupt blowhard who carries the stench of a commie - IS NOT AN ATTACK ON THE INSTITUTION OF JUSTICE. It's an attack on a horrible man who has disgraced the DOJ with this small minded petty hatred of the traditional Americans.
Shame on Merrick Garland - this whine is a new low for a man who wallows in the gutter.
Exactly
Life happens again, so for this week I’m only posting today and maybe on Wednesday. I’ll be once again in internet free zones until Sunday. Hopefully things will stay relatively quiet but I don’t count on it any more.
Biden / Harris watch –
There are reports that biden has hired defense lawyers over the weekend in the aftermath of additional criminal actions that have been exposed by whistleblowers (with the receipts). This following his weekend huddle with hunter and his lawyers at Camp David.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Nimitz CSG is at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.
Wuhan Plandemic –
The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) released the long-anticipated report on the evening of June 23, days after a 90-day deadline mandated by the COVID-19 Origin Act of 2023. Passed by Congress and signed into law in March, the act requires disclosure of any possible links to the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV), which has been suggested as a likely pandemic origin.
Although it provides glimpses into activities at the Wuhan lab before the pandemic, the 10-page report—including three pages in appendices—doesn’t conclusively state whether the virus came from nature or the lab.
Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.), who sits on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, noted reports earlier in the week confirming names of the Wuhan virology lab researchers who had fallen ill with COVID-like symptoms in the autumn of 2019.
OBSERVATION - haven’t paid as much attention to this due to other chaos in the world. This report is not the smoking gun, but its omissions are serious. One of those omissions being the lack of any evaluation of US funded research at the lab regarding coronaviruses.
Illegal Immigration –
Reports developing that Homeland Security (DHS) is rerouting illegal immigration through Ports of Entry at the United States-Mexico border to give the appearance that the inflow has dropped under his watch, House Republicans say.
Republicans on the House Homeland Security Committee detailed in a report issued this month:
While the Biden administration is celebrating a reported 25 percent decrease in encounters between Ports of Entry, 35,317 aliens were encountered at Ports of Entry — 17% of the total encounters in May. According to the Office of Field Operations, this is a 20% increase from April 2023 and a staggering 34% increase from January 2023, when the CBP One app was first expanded to non-commercial use.
OBSERVATION - Oneway or another bien will find a way to continue the flood of illegals into the country
North/South Korea –
(Yonhap) — North Korea’s foreign ministry on Monday accused Seoul and Washington of pushing tensions to “the brink of a nuclear war” akin to the 1950-53 Korean War, saying it will continue to bolster its self-defensive capabilities.
In a research report released by the foreign ministry’s Institute for American Studies, North Korea likened the current military tensions in the region to the night before the outbreak of the Korean War as it slammed the United States and South Korea for their “delusional anti-communist military confrontation” and “rhetorical threats.”
“Such bellicose moves of the U.S. have pushed the military tensions on the Korean peninsula and in Northeast Asia already plunged into an extremely unstable situation closer to the brink of a nuclear war,” the ministry said in the English-language report released by the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).
OBSERVATION - NK comes out with this threat often, so it is hard to judge the validity or imminence of such an operation.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing in Ukraine with some attempts at preemptive assaults in the east. In the face of increased Ukrainian probing attacks, Russia has yielded some large amounts of terrain.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. Recent multi-way attacks on Kyiv resulted in most of the missiles/drones (well over 90%) being shot down and very few reaching a target.
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One thing to note in context - Putin’s current presidential term runs out next year. is this the start of more instability in the country?
In short - the turmoil continues to echo through Russia following 24 hours of Wagner rebellion.
1. Prigozhin has not been heard from since the agreement to stop the coup yesterday. As of Monday morning Russian FSB has not closed criminal case against Prigozhin
2. Defense Minister, Sergei Shoigu and Army Chief of General Staff, Valery Gerasimov have also dropped off the radar. RUMINT. Leading candidate for Shoigu,’s position is a former bodyguard of Putin is Oleksiy Dyumin. It is reported that it was he who went to Prigozhin and decided with him the issue of ending the “campaign” to Moscow. Gerasimov may be replaced by Surovikin, Russia’s top commander in Ukraine.
3. Final dispensation of the Wagner units is still being worked out. Many have returned to their bases in the russian rear areas of the Ukraine.
4. New uncertainty for Russian units that were neutral or supported Wagner. Some of which are also on the front lines of the war. Does the Russian MoD execute a purge in the middle of combat?
RUMINT-
Probably the biggest rumor is that this was all part of a plan to place Prigozhin in Belarus from which he will launch an attack on Kyiv. However, no Wagner units have been tracked headed to Belarus and the regular Russian forces in Belarus are too few to accomplish such a mission.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Milder temperatures with scattered light rain. Overall dry conditions thru the latter half of the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Reports are slightly confirmed that Ukraine has staged a crossing of the Dniper River near the Oleshky Bridge site near Kherson. However, at this stage it appears that the incursion is still small and consists mostly of infantry. A crossing here, now with the lake drained, gives Ukraine a possibility of striking the flank of the Russian forces in southern Kherson Oblast and cutting off Russian forces along the southern front.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine continues to take advantage in the confusion of leadership in the Russian leadership. This confusion is centered in the Bakhmut region where Ukrainian forces continue to reclaim lands at rates up to a kilometer per day. Bakhmut is close to becoming surrounded - by Ukraine.
Continued limited success in the south as ‘Ukraine begins to penetrate the first lines of prepared Russian defenses.
Russia’s deep game continues to fumble, with Ukrainian air defense shooting down 7 of 8 Shahed drones and 2 of 3 Kaliber cruise missiles, launched by Russia overnight
OUTLOOK –
Ukraine continues to exploit Russian confusion following the Wagner revolt. In the east things are the most disrupted for the Russians as that was Wagner’s operational area and some units there may have sided with them - making the potential for a leadership purge while in contact with Ukraine opponents problematical for operational planning and questionable morale of soldiers.
Ukraine has reestablished the cone of silence over much of its ground operations - suggesting that they are looking at the next phase of the battle and assessing the impacts of Wagner leaving the fight.
Europe / NATO General –
Increased activity of NATO aviation over Black Sea, principally intelligence collection platforms.
“The monster that Putin created with Wagner, the monster is biting him now. The monster is acting against his creator,” said Josep BorrellF, the EU’s chief diplomat. “[Putin’s] military power is cracking.”
Israel –
A terror attack targeting Jews and Israelis was thwarted in Cyprus, it was reported by Cypriot media on Sunday.
According to the reports, the planned attack was believed linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is a branch of the Iranian army and is considered a terror organization by several countries, including the United States.
Israel’s National Security Council warned earlier this year that Cyprus and Greece are countries where Iran is likely to target Jews and Israelis. The countries are popular destinations for Israeli tourists, in addition to having relatively sizable expat communities.
Hang in there...
Back from my trip, then head first into the 4 July holiday, well now back into it.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The BRICS countries are planning to introduce a new trading currency, which will be backed by gold. The discussion of the new currency should take place at the upcoming BRICS meeting in Johannesburg in August. This decision was made due to the large number of countries wishing to join the BRICS.
OBSERVATION - A gold based currency on this scale would create quite a stir. How well would this fit into the overall WEF goals for a global digital currency is not totally clear, but this could pave the way for further erosion of the dollar as the currency of global reckoning.
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The Hague, the seat of the ruling class in the Netherlands, has declared a state of emergency to prevent farmers from driving their tractors into the city to protest the government’s mandatory fertilizer reduction targets. Farmers say that their rights and freedom are being trampled on by a totalitarian system of rule we all know as “democracy.”
OBSERVATION - The dutch govt has been becoming increasing tyrannical towards the farmers and property owners in order to meet its global warming obligations to the WEF. Needless to say the popularity of these efforts are not gaining support from the population. To enact ‘emergency’ laws is evidence that the govt is losing legitimacy in the fight and is stooping to the next level - such as seen by Canada last year.
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America’s Transportation Security Agency (TSA) intends to expand its facial-recognition program used to screen US air travel passengers to 430 domestic airports in under a decade.
The TSA’s program, which uses Idemia’s biometric technology, has come under fire from some privacy and civil-rights organizations, which argue the software amounts to large-scale surveillance that does little to stop terror in the skies.
OBSERVATION - Biometrics is the way forward for the WEF’s designs on global control of individuals. Already in practice in China and other regions, the goal is to prevent any work arounds to the system. Facial recognition has come a long way since it innocuously appeared on Facebook to help sort your photos. FB messenger videos use the technology to create the funny ‘masks’ viewers can place on their feeds - all based on facial recognition algorithms. Similar technology scans vehicle license plates for want, warrants and parking violations. Now in the future add a dose of AI/Quantium processing and the ability to track individuals increases exponentially.
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According to Fox News, the report comes from the watchdog group American Accountability Foundation (AAF), which said in a new memo that top officials in the Biden White House are attempting to program “dangerous ideologies” into new A.I. systems.
“Under the guise of fighting ‘algorithmic discrimination’ and ‘harmful bias,’ the Biden administration is trying to rig AI to follow the woke left’s rules,” said Tom Jones, the president of AAF. “Biden is being advised on technology policy, not by scientists, but by racially obsessed social academics and activists. We’re already seen the biggest tech firms in the world, like Google under Eric Schmidt, use their power to push the left’s agenda.”
“This would take the tech/woke alliance to a whole new, truly terrifying level,” Jones added.
One of the examples AAF cited in the memo is a plan released by the White House’s Office of Science and Technology Policy last October, titled the “Blueprint for an AI Bill of Rights.” The document claims, with no evidence, that there could be an “algorithmic discrimination” in the way A.I. responds to certain people based on race, gender, and other characteristics. Such programs, the White House orders, should be “reviewed for bias based on the historical and societal context of the data.”
The White House document recommends “proactive equity assessments as part of the system design,” among other tactics, in order to make the A.I. more left-wing. A similar report was released in May by the White House’s Select Committee on Artificial Intelligence, titled the National Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Strategic Plan, which similarly claims that “AI systems are prone to ‘hallucinate’ and recapitulate biases derived from the unfiltered data from the internet used to train them.”
OBSERVATION - The regime and global control freaks are jumping fast to harness the potential of AI to control the narrative and silence the right. We already know the technocrats are willing supportive of marxist ideal and will willing cooperate, if not out right lead, the efforts to skew AI results. Already the WEF and others have called for an AI produced bible and religions to eliminate ‘wrong’ views and ideas.
Economy –
Saudi Arabia and Russia announced reductions in oil exports through August 2023. Saudi Arabia and Russia’s cuts together represent 1.5 million barrels per day, which is 1.5% of global supply.
OBSERVATION - Cutting production to sustain current prices. Some are thinking that this also represents a dimming view of China’s economic reestablishment which was expected to regain strength this summer, but who’s economy has continued to suffer doldrums and is far underperforming expectations.
Biden / Harris watch –
Watching this cocaine discovery story morph. First reports were that cocaine was discover NEAR the WH. Next version is that the discovery was in the library. More recent reports say that it was discovered in the West Wing proper and not the library.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Federal Judge Terry Doughty in the Western District of Louisiana, issued an injunction that takes direct aim at the government-media censorship complex. Concluding that plaintiffs in the lawsuit have a strong likelihood of proving that the US government suppressed dissent — and particularly conservative dissent — Doughty ordered the Biden administration and its executive agencies to cease any coordination with social-media companies.
OBSERVATION - This is likely the first of many legal counterattacks against the regime and the deep state since overt govt censorship was discovered. In this instance, govt censorship surrounding wuhan in particular. It covers a broad swath of alphabet agencies and the WH. It goes further, by banning govt interactions with secondary parties that then turned around and tried to force censorship
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The suspect wanted in connection with a shooting in Southwest Philadelphia on Monday night has been identified as 40-year-old Kimbrady Watson Carriker. A transgender shemale.
According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, Carriker was arrested on Monday evening after allegedly shooting and killing five people and injuring two children in the Kingsessing neighborhood. Police Commissioner Danielle Outlaw said law enforcement responded to gunfire in the area of South 56th Street and Chester Avenue shortly before 8:30 pm. Around 10 minutes later, police followed and cornered the suspect in an alleyway on the 1600 block of South Frazier Street.
On Facebook, Carriker was seen posting in support of Black Lives Matter, and follows the Black Lives Matter Philly Facebook page.
OBSERVATION - Another white domestic terrorist. . . . . .
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group is back in the South China Sea after wrapping a port visit to Vietnam on Friday.
Wuhan Plandemic –
Not wuhan, but Typhoid in Florida - remarkably making an appearance after Gates modified mosquitoes were released into the state. Coincidence? I think not.
Illegal Immigration –
Video of border control agents opening up razor wire on private property installed by Texas law enforcement to allow illegals entrance into the country. Vile to the max and I’m losing faith in some border control people who are forgetting that they are sworn to protect the constitution. Very similar to the National Guard individual that unlocked a gate to let illegals in a month or so ago.
China –
The United States pays interest on approximately $850 billion in debt held by the People’s Republic of China. China, however, is currently in default on its sovereign debt held by American bondholders.
OBSERVATION - This is a two edged sword, it can both harm the US as well as China. Given China’s current economic issues and hostile relations between the US and China, default becomes a dangerous component to the US and global economy.
North/South Korea –
South Korea’s military said on Wednesday it has retrieved the wreckage of a North Korean spy satellite that plunged into the sea in May after a botched launch, Reuters reports.
The South Korean military added it had found that the satellite did not appear to be capable of military surveillance.
OBSERVATION - The news report didn’t state the nature or potential purpose of the payload.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 6, 2023. Reassessment pending
Russia is on a defensive footing in Ukraine with some attempts at preemptive assaults in the east. In the face of increased Ukrainian probing attacks, Russia has yielded some large amounts of terrain.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. Recent multi-way attacks on Kyiv resulted in most of the missiles/drones (well over 90%) being shot down and very few reaching a target.
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The Russian saga with Wagner has more twists, turns and loop holes than “Lost”.
Prigozhin and Wagner soap opera is winding down. Prigozhin is out of the Russian news cycle and Wagner has ceased to be a significant fighting force as most recruits are resisting signing over to the regular forces. The winner is the MoD, who now is attempting to consolidate power once again and there are officer purges in the works.
RUMINT-
There are claims that Russia is amassing more than 180,000 troops near the front. There are 120,000 in the Limano-Kupyansk direction & around 50,000 near Bakhmut. These numbers are believed to include all the service support elements which would lower the actual front line combat force numbers.
Kerch Bridge update –
Major traffic jams as Russian try to get into Crimea for summer vacations. No word as to when the rail line portion of the bridge is expected to return to full operation.
Logistics –
Evidence that Russia is now producing substantial numbers of the Shaheed drones on its own, and relying less on Iran.
The Russian Railways company is restoring the operation of the company’s mobile application and website after a cyber attack, the Russian Railways press service reported
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Hot with some highs reaching the 90s, with mid week forecast of thunderstorms and some rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Both Russia and Ukraine accused each other of planning to blow up the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station. The reported incident was to happen in the next 24-48 hour - so we are in the middle of the window.
As far as all the other action since I was on hiatus, things pretty much have continued as before. Ukraine continues to make advances on all its axis of attack, but at a much slower pace than anticipated.
Bahhmut is increasingly becoming surrounded by Ukraine forces. Significant gains on the south over the weekend have place Russian resupply lines to the rubble that was the city in jeopardy.
There is evidence that Ukraine is expanding its control of the left bank of the Dniper River using artillery supported light infantry. With the draining of the lake and now dried soils, a plethora of river crossing opportunities are available that could take advantage of the relatively lightly defended regions of occupied Kherson Oblast and allow the Ukrainian army to slam into the left flank of the Russian army’s defense of Ukraine advances along the Tokmak and Velyka Novosilka Axis.
OUTLOOK –
Ukraine will continue to press its offensive on multiple axes. Though not the blitzkrieg many thought, it has in one month regained more territory than Russia took in a year. Numerous analysts continue to note that Ukraine still has yet to commit the bulk of the forces it has gathered for the offensive. Perhaps holding off due to the potential threat from a Russian counter assault from Limano-Kupyansk region.
The watch on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station is of concern since Russia showed no reluctance in destroying the dam a couple weeks ago. NATO and in particular Poland and Romania have warned that any destruction of the facility and associate fall out of radiation on their country would result in the declaration of Art 5 and could pull them into direct combat. A melt down of the facility would also condemn the Dniper River downstream of the plant and potentially cause closure of Ukrainian ports around the mouth of the river. Response to try to control a melt down would be severely impeded by Russia, doubly making the disaster worse.
Should Russia execute the Zaporizhzhia option, US and allies may drop all hesitation to supply ATACMs and cluster munitions (as well as more long range systems) to Ukraine, cycling an escalation of the war even higher.
The consolidation of power by the MoD over Wagner over the past week to me means that Russia will reinforce failed policies and tactics that have been the bane of the Russian efforts in Ukraine. Massive officer purges will destabilize units even further and combined with already poor morale decrease Russian military capability another notch.
Europe / NATO General –
Moslem rioting in France has caused over $1 billion in damages so far and show no signs of slowing. Riots started when French police shot an killed a 17 yr old moslem with a rap sheet the length of your arm.
OBSERVATION - France has allowed essentially uncontrolled immigration of moslems from Africa and the ME for decades now.
Israel –
Over the weekend Israel launched ground attacks in the West Bank community of Jennin which hammered terrorist HQs and other affiliated sites. Last night probable PIJ terrorists launched five rockets into southern Israel and the IAF responded by striking an underground weapons manufacturing facility used by the Hamas terrorist organization, as well as a raw materials manufacturing facility for rockets belonging to Hamas in Gaza. The IDF holds Hamas responsible for all activities emanating from Gaza and will face the consequences of security violations against Israel.
An independent group would have to verify the quality of physical gold before this would be believable.
It's an old style 'trust but verify' thingie...
Thought I’d ask here. Obviously, I’m missing something so why this particular group of countries in BRICS? Russia and China, sure. I said years ago the US needed to align with Russia to prevent them teaming with China but now we’ll have to deal with them both. If, make that IF, they want a financial control, then why include Brazil, India and South Africa? India has established itself in recent years but they still have a long way to go with their poor. How bleepin’ much can South Africa bring to the table financially?
My biggest question is Brazil. It is supposed to be a good investment but I might be behind the times on them raising their poor’s status. Maybe Brazil should work on their potable water first.
Knocking on their door are Mexico and Ethiopia and various ME countries. Ethiopia can’t feed their people. All Mexico has is oil and remittances from the US.
Smells like Russia and China are more interested in roping in future expendable troops.
Please, set me straight.
My understanding is that they are trying to establish a replacement for the petrodollar. It also mitigates economic sanctions. Crush the US dollar, you remove the economic engine of the country. It doesn’t have to do with gaining cannon fodder.
Mexico would be foolish to join as they need our dollar high and illegals getting US jobs. The US is the highest or second highest investor in Brazil, so why are they siding against us? On the flip side, if the US dollar crashes, all those who have invested in the US will be in bad shape... except China who’s buying up loans.
Globalism / Great Reset –
UN ‘Summit of the Future’ is set to take place weeks before the 2024 general elections. At this summit, plans are being made by the international bureaucrats who make up the U.N. that member nations are expected to adopt a “Pact for the Future.”
“The agreement will solidify numerous policy reforms offered by the U.N.” in its agenda, he said.
Justin Haskins writing at The Federalist notes - “Although there are numerous radical proposals included in the agenda, perhaps none are more important than the U.N. plan for a new ‘emergency platform,’ a stunning proposal to give the U.N. significant powers in the event of future ‘global shocks,’ such as another worldwide pandemic,” he explained.
Known details of the scheme, he said, include a plan for “standing authority” for the U.N. to “convene and operationalize automatically an emergency platform.”
“Once triggered, the emergency platform would give the U.N. the ability to ‘actively promote and drive an international response that places the principles of equity and solidarity at the centre of its work.’ The U.N. would bring together the ‘stakeholders’ of the world, including academics, governments, private sector actors, and ‘international financial institutions’ to ensure there is a unified, global response to the crisis,” he explained.
OBSERVATION - Much like the WHOs pandemic rules that are in the process of being finalized for vote in 2024, the globalist cabal are also pushing a similar ‘emergency’ set of powers that supersede the rights of individual countries. This agenda is supported by the biden regime.
FURTHER NOTE - Two globalist agenda items that seek to bind the independence and sovereignty of the US are pending to hit next year. Coincidence?
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Expiry dates and restrictions on “less desirable” purchases are some of the key advantages behind central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), according to an economist at a World Economic Forum (WEF) event.
The WEF hosted the 14th annual Meeting of the New Champions in Tianjin, China, also known as Summer Davos. During one of the 30-minute panel discussions on June 28, Cornell University professor Eswar Prasad explained that the global economy is “at the cusp of physical currency essentially disappearing” and that programmable CBDCs and the technology behind these new forms of money could take the international economic landscape toward a dark path or a better place.
Prasad contended that one of the “huge potential gains” for the digitization of money is the programmability of CBDC units and attaching expiry dates. Governments can also utilize central bank money to socially engineer society.
NOTE - “expiry dates” are defined as expiration dates for the digital currency, suggesting that it would no longer be usable if not spent in a specific timeframe.
https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=6195
OBSERVATION - Programable digital currency is clearly out of the box of ‘conspiracy’ theory and in the realm of active planning by globalists.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
16 people, including 11 youths, were arrested in Minneapolis for firing off a barrage of fireworks at police on July 4. Videos captured the Somali American suspects reveling during the attack.
OBSERVATION - France is not alone in its immigrant problems. It can happen here and in a large part did in the Minneapolis area during the 2020 Floyd riots.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Overnight, WNDSR01 (x1 USAF WC-135R Constant Phoenix) transitioned from Souda AFB in Crete to RAF Mildenhall. Constant Phoenix is the nuclear sensor (atmospheric sampling) equipped aircraft. There are only 2 in existence.
OBSERVATION - It appears that the US is considering the threat to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station to be real and potentially serious.
China –
Note from yesterday’s post on China potentially defaulting on US debts - the date to watch is Aug 29th.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing in Ukraine with some attempts at preemptive assaults in the east. In the face of increased Ukrainian probing attacks, Russia has yielded some large amounts of terrain.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. Recent multi-way attacks on Kyiv resulted in most of the missiles/drones (well over 90%) being shot down and very few reaching a target.
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The Russian saga with Wagner has more twists, turns and loop holes than “Lost”.
The missing General Surovikin is still missing, and has now missed his wife’s birthday. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu is reportedly personally overseeing the investigation into Surovikin. Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, who holds the title of Hero of Russia, ceased to appear at events of the Defense Ministry, following Army General Sergei Surovikin.
“As for Prigozhin, he is in St. Petersburg. He is not on the territory of Belarus,” Lukashenko commented on the situation regarding Wagner PMC.
“I am absolutely not worried that we will have a certain number of fighters stationed here. If they need to be used, we will use them immediately. All the knowledge they gained at the front will be considered and used for training.”
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Hot with some highs reaching the 90s, with mid week forecast of thunderstorms and some rain.
RUMINT –
US media reports that the Biden administration has finally taken the decision to supply Ukraine with cluster munitions (DPICM).
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia went deep overnight striking Kviv in Western Ukraine. At least four people, including two women aged 21 and 95, have been killed after a Russian rocket hit an apartment building in Lviv, western Ukraine. Another 34 people were injured in what the mayor of Lviv described as “one of the biggest attacks” on the city’s civilian infrastructure. Lviv regional head Maksym Kozytskyi said more than 30 houses had been destroyed. Missles were reportedly Kaliber type cruise missiles launched from Russian naval vessels in the Black Sea.
Still on nuclear plant watch - will the kremlin use it to counter the offensive?
OUTLOOK –
Ukraine appears to be effectively targeting russian artillery, logistics and C2. Very similar to how they forced Russia out of Kherson. It still doesn’t appear that they’ve committed their main forces to the fight, while it is appearing that Russia has started committing their reserves. Interesting evaluations on the tactics being used.
Iran –
US forces on 5 July drove off Iranian naval vessels firing on and apparently attempting to seize 2 oil tankers in international waters in the Gulf of Oman.
Came real close to FAFO time for the Iranian navy.
These are a series of strategic moves... the tactic has nothing to do with ‘the poor’.
Taking over reserve currency status has to do with trade. Buying ans selling internationally. As far as Brazil goes they’re a top oil producing country, Something like 9th in the world. That’s a lot of ‘trade currency’ stuff. But oil is nothing compared to Brazil’s rare earth elements..
“Brazil has one of the largest rare earth reserves on the planet”
Why does that matter? It’s the most important trade product in the future. Why does China want to corner control of rare earth elements AND become the reserve currency? Because if they do that they can inflate their money to cover their debt. Just like we’ve done all these years.
For example; take a poor country like Haiti - have you ever wondered why they don’t just ‘print more money’ like we do when we want to buy something we can’t afford? The reason they can’t is they’re NOT a reserve currency country.
When we ‘inflate’ our money we’re taking a cut from everyone’s money who uses the dollar to trade with. If we had to pay off our debt with ONLY our own money we would not be able to do it. China’s figured out the game because they put their best and brightest in positions of power - not like the current American KKK hiring style based on ... Kolor, Kink and Kin (rich daddy)
Had no clue about Brazil’s rare earth minerals - 3.5 billion tons. Rare earth reserves has China, of course, at #1 followed by Vietnam, Brazil, Russia, India, Australia, US and Greenland. Yes, key countries in that group. It will be interesting to see which reasonable countries pick up the pace on mining/extracting vs. the inevitable poisoning the earth protests.
China is buying up land all over the world so they’ll have a foothold wherever they might need to be. Have to give them a big smart move for that
As more countries are wanting to join BRICS, well, hmm, we’re gong to need a strong unifier in ‘24.
Whoops, missed the ping yesterday, sorry
Economy –
The popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage spiked 31 basis points in one week to 7.22% The average payment on a $400,000 mortgage is $1,000 more per month than it was 2 years ago.
“The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has now risen 31 basis points in just the past week. For a homebuyer taking out a $400,000 mortgage, the monthly payment of principal and interest rose to $2,720 from $2,637 in just one week.” CNBC reported.
OBSERVATION - Housing market will continue to suffer at these mortgage rates, with recovery delayed far into the future.
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America’s employers pulled back on hiring but still delivered another month of solid gains in June, adding 209,000 jobs, a sign that the economy’s resilience is confounding the Federal Reserve’s drive to slow growth and inflation.
On Thursday, Lorie Logan, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, suggested that persistently high inflation and “a stronger-than expected labor market” mean that borrowing costs will need to go still higher.
“I remain very concerned about whether inflation will return to target in a sustainable and timely way,” Logan said in remarks at a central banking conference in New York. “And I think more-restrictive monetary policy will be needed.”
OBSERVATION - Job numbers are hard to evaluate due to the numerous changes and data manipulation over the years to make the administration of the time look favorable. The fed sees this with concern in that it will take it as an indicator that more prime rates need to be increased.
Biden / Harris watch –
The cocaine found in the White House was located “in a much more secure area” near the Situation Room.
“This was found in a much more secure place, limited access place than that West Wing reception area... it’s down near the Situation Room right off west executive down below.”
“Normal people, average people just can’t get in there, even with the entry from the northwest gate.”
OBSERVATION - This is the fourth variant on the cocaine location that I’ve seen so far. This also narrows down the list of potential culprits.
Speaking of culprits -
There are rumors that the White House is now pointing the finger at Kamala Harris as the source. This could get interesting if they push it. However, most money is on hunter as being the source.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Antifa et al continue to operate at a very low level and still seem to have difficulties mobilizing any sizable force as they did in 2020. There are some exceptions such as the ‘Stop Cop City’ protests in Atlanta and scattered support of LGBT (and what ever new letters they keep adding) caused - particularly the Transtifa elements.
Illegal Immigration –
Congressional Republicans are seeking to defund faith-based nonprofits and immigration NGOs guilty of facilitating illegal border crossings. In the current congressional setting and biden regime, the best current result would be congressional stalemate while biden would execute probable illegal financing work arounds, knowing full well they could get away with it for years until it reaches the USSC and knowing there would be no consequences for such illegal acts.
China –
China’s Commerce Ministry announced that buyers of Chinese gallium and germanium and their chemical compounds would have to apply for special permits starting August 1 and said the new controls are intended to safeguard China’s national interests. Gallium and germanium are key minerals for the manufacture of heat-resistant semiconductor wafers, fiber optics cables, satellite imagery sensors, and night vision optics. China has also in the past restricted the export of rare earth magnets, which are used for multiple applications, including laser-guided missiles, and hinted they could expand those export restrictions too.
OBSERVATION - While Washington bungles around international relations, China’s long game is beginning to bear fruit. With environmental restrictions, the US is literally a decade behind the curve in developing domestic sources and is losing other international sources to China.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing in Ukraine with some attempts at preemptive assaults in the east. In the face of increased Ukrainian probing attacks, Russia has yielded some large amounts of terrain.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. Recent multi-way attacks on Kyiv resulted in most of the missiles/drones (well over 90%) being shot down and very few reaching a target.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia is reportedly planning to mobilize additional 500,000 servicemen, according to Ukraine’s General Staff. Russia is preparing to fully provide its armed forces with significant mobilization resources to wage a long war of attrition.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Hot with some highs reaching the 90s, with mid week forecast of thunderstorms and some rain.
RUMINT –
Deliveries of long-range American ATACMS missiles to Ukraine approved - The Wall Street Journal
NOTE - These munitions have been banned by most of the NATO countries.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian military spy chief Kyrylo Budanov tells Reuters threat is “receding” at Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
Ukraine continues to make gains and is gaining greater tactical advantage on several fronts (see below).
Ukraine has been particularly successful in targeting Russian logistics, artillery, air defense and electronic warfare elements. These elements strip vital support from the Russian troops on the ground and enables Ukraine to gain further advantage.
Tokmak Axis -
Ukraine forces are successfully bypassing village/town strong points and threatening Russian forces with being cut off.
Bakhmut Axis -
Ukraine is making substantial gains on both the north and south side of Bakhmut and is even starting to penetrate into the city itself. Ukraine is close to gaining observational (and artillery control) of supply lines into Bakhmut.
Russia reportedly pulling reserves from southern Ukraine to bolster the defense of the area.
OUTLOOK –
Relatively slow slog of the Ukraine offensive continues on. However, depending on how quickly these munitions get to Ukraine, the cluster bombs and ATACMS missiles would provide a key punch to the Ukrainian effort. Ukraine is prosecuting this offensive without the air support that the US has commonly used in its attacks. Though Russia as continued to fail to establish air superiority, it has been able to keep Ukraine air forces out of most of the fight. Russia has also been able to employ a lot of attack helicopters in the defense, though they are seeing high numbers of shutdown and will eventually lose that advantage due to lack of replacement.
Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant will continue to hang like the sword of Damocles over the region. Logic indicates that if Ukraine blows the plant, its southern offensive is done due to likely contamination. Russia would likely hold off doing anything until the situation becomes critical knowing that if it targets the facility there is a strong possibility of Poland and Romania getting directly involved in the fight and dragging NATO in with it.
Israel –
Israel targeted islamic terror elements in southern Lebanon following rocket and anti-tank fire form the country.
OBSERVATION - Attacks launched probably PIJ elements, with the blessing of Hezbollah, have been increasing. This increased the danger of a more direct Israel-Hezbollah conflict. This also coincides with increased Hamas/PIJ terror activity in the West Bank (Nablus and Jenna). This is becoming a dangerous combination and could quickly expand, though I don’t think Hezbollah is quite ready for a direct confrontation yet, but is satisfied to allow these other groups do some of its dirty work for now.
Iran –
After being denied capture of two vessels, Iran did intercept and capture a vessel in international waters off the coast of Saudi Arabia, without US intervention.
Syria -
The US military has accused Russian fighter jets of “unsafe” behavior for the second day in a row, claiming they flew “dangerously close” to US drones during an operation in Syria.
OBSERVATION - Russia feels safe doing this to drones but has also in the past challenged US tactical air flying CAP operations.
China basically cornered the rare earth elements market years ago- now they’re going after food and food processing.
They’re playing for real - we’re promoting people based on Kolor, Kink, and Kin (powerful daddy) to guide us.
What a blunder.
If Biden and his sexual weirdos stay in power we will lose the battle and lose the war. And when that happens because we’re stupid it’ll be our fault.. not China’s.
Yes, all our own fault.
Thank you both.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Dutch prime minister resigns after ruling coalition fails to agree on migration policy. The decision by PM Mark Rutte, the Netherlands’ longest-serving premier, means the country will face a general election later this year. Earlier on Friday, the four parties in Rutte’s ruling bloc failed to broker a deal over ways to rein in migration.
OBSERVATION - Why is this important? This govt has lead the globalist charge to eliminate the vast majority of the country’s farming / ranching as well as initially seizing property rights from all citizens. These policies have been unpopular with the citizenry and resulted in a surge in counter-govt parties. How will this govt breakdown affect the ongoing fight to close down farms? Uncertain a this stage as the bureaucracy could continue to push forward with the plan, but that would make it difficult for Rutte to overcome that issue as well as the other issues that have soured his govt and plans.
**
Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states made a significant decision to conduct the majority of transactions in national currencies instead of the American dollar, following Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s proposal to ditch the dollar eventually.
OBSERVATION - Already BRICS is planning on challenging the dollar with a gold based currency, now other groups being urged to flee from the dollar as well. This is a key goal of the WEF and their global reset agenda. The US is too strong for a WEF dominated world, so it must be shut down economically, militarily and socially. Such a shut down will send near catastrophic ripples across the global economy, allowing the WEF’s one world financial system to ride in and save the day.
**
In somewhat related, the House Judiciary Committee sent letters to three of the nation’s biggest financial firms and two net-zero activist coalitions of activist financial firms, demanding information about their potential antitrust violations in pursuit of an environmental, social, and governance (ESG) agenda.
BlackRock,
Vanguard,
State Street,
Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ), and
Net Zero Asset Managers initiative (NZAM)
The letters to BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street – three of five largest asset management companies – warn that they are “potentially violating U.S. antitrust law” by coordinating their investment decisions in furtherance of ESG goals.
Known for forcing activist asset managers to either favor or boycott industries, based on how “green” they are, these firms are also behind the recent blitz for businesses to suddenly become LGBT/Trans super friendly in recent days.
OBSERVATION - These firms as also linked at the hip to WEF and form an enforcement arm to drive the economy into tatters. Backed by tens of trillions of dollars, these firms leverage ESG score to access by companies to cash reserves/borrowing. In its short lifetime, ESG driven investments have a proven track record of tanking pension and any other funds they’ve allowed themselves to be forced into buying.
**
Globalists see the need for a unifying global ‘emergency’ to further their cause. Wuhan provided one such opportunity to advance their agenda. Now global warming (or climate change) is at their forefront. An underlying stream is to drastically reduce the human population of the planet - because people cause too much global warming. Hence attacks on the agriculture industry are on the rise. But more outlandish concepts are being put forward.
One such idea in the news comes from a White House announcement of the release of a research plan on solar radiation modification (SRM) on Friday that suggests the “possible deployment” of solar geoengineering techniques to mitigate the effects of climate change.
The report was published by the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), to provide a research plan for “solar and other rapid climate interventions” in response to a congressional mandate in the Consolidated Appropriations Act 2022. The use of SRM techniques that would block or filter sunlight is being explored as a “potential complement to other tools available to address climate change.”
Anyone with a lick of common sense can realize that blocking the sun will kill solar power solutions, kill off agriculture (plants need sun to grow) and likely create a new round of pollution given the materials being looked at to block the sun. Probably based on studies of major volcanic eruptions that put huge amounts of volcanic materials into the air, resulting in years with out summer, the dark ages and other past events.
Yes, they really want to kill you off if you are of no use to them.
Biden / Harris watch –
On top of cocaine-gate, hunter biden’s sweetheart deal may be coming apart now that accusations and evidence is coming out that the D0J passes on more serious charges in order to grant the slap on the wrist plea agreement.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
In the light of the judicial decision that bars the govt from contacting social and other media to enact/enforce censorship of “misinformation” i.e. information that is contrary to the leftist narrative, it is not surprising that the lap dog MSM is encouraging more censorship.
CNN Chief White House Correspondent Phil Mattingly who stated that it “makes sense” for tech companies to go along with government censorship demands.
“[T]he Biden administration would regularly reach out to Twitter and Facebook and other companies in kind of the early stages of their COVID response and say, this person is spreading lies about vaccines, this account is spreading misinformation that is inhibiting — not just our efforts, the administration’s efforts to address COVID — but also public health, do something about it. And often, I think more often than not, the companies would respond and say, okay. And there are emails that came out during the course of this case that that was something that I think — when it was explained to me at the time, I thought, alright, that makes sense, that’s probably what we should do on public health grounds.”
OBSERVATION - Post wuhan it has become clear that the alleged “misinformation” the govt had censored was actually truth and the information the CDC et al put out was the misinformation. The government was wrong on many of these points while experts were being banned and blacklisted. So common for the left to try to silence opposition and control propaganda.
In a CW2 world, the mind of the masses is a key battle ground. Already with the millions who tune into the MSM for their daily dose of tailored ‘news’, they are unsatisfied and up set that there are other media steams that counter their narrative. The attack on alternative media will only intensify as the left loses control of the information battlefront.
Terrorism -
Concerns echoing across the interwebs concerning the surge in Chinese and other nationals from nations hostile to the US - predominantly males of military age. These could be utilized to form terror cells and in the case of Chinese, conduct serious domestic terror strikes in coordination with any action to seize Taiwan and response from the US. Buried deep into the blue jungles of the liberal cities, they can operate with considerable stealth.
POLITICAL FRONT –
House republicans holding hearing on numerous biden regime scandals, but nothing will result from them because the Senate democrats will hold the line.
I’m not concerned with the presidential campaigns as of yet. Too far out for any good analysis and a lot can happen between now and then.
China –
Philippine military patrols have spotted more Chinese vessels in the West Philippine Sea last week including 48 Chinese fishing vessels swarming Iroquois Reef and 5 Chinese Coast Guard and People’s Liberation Army Navy vessels near Sabina Shoal…
The Philippine military said 3 China Coast Guard (CCG) ships and two People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessels have also been spotted regularly loitering in Sabina Shoal, compared to two wooden resupply boats from the Philippines and two Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) vessels.
The military said the developments “raise an alarming concern about China’s intentions and actions within these disputed waters.”
OBSERVATION - This has been China’s tactics of late to seize and lay claim to smaller islands in the South China Sea. Short of a naval battle, smaller nations like the Philippines are unable to enforce their claims on these islands and China then exploits this by physically establishing a presence on them in a manner that would require a war to dislodge. This has driven the Philippines closer to the US in military cooperation of late.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing in Ukraine with some attempts at preemptive assaults in the east. In the face of increased Ukrainian probing attacks, Russia has yielded some large amounts of terrain.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. Recent multi-way attacks on Kyiv resulted in most of the missiles/drones (well over 90%) being shot down and very few reaching a target.
********
The purge of the military continues with Russia’s Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Evkurov, another ‘Hero of Russia,’ disappearing without a trace after Prigozhin’s coup last month, just like Hero of Russia Surovikin and Hero of Russia Gerasimov.
Meanwhile, Prigozhin appears to have completely dropped off the radar, not in Belarus, not in St.Petersburg, not in Russia. Some rumors are that he is formulating his revenge against putin for his reneging on his surrender agreement.
Logistics –
Observers in Belarus covertly tracking Russian troop/equipment movements noted a lot of Russian equipment being shipped out in recent days back into Russia. Up to 100 pieces of equipment of various types. May potentially represent Russian needs for equipment replacements as a result of Ukraine’s offensive.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Hot with some highs reaching the 90s, with mid week forecast of thunderstorms and some rain.
RUMINT –
Rumors that Russian tried to launch an attack to remove the bridgehead over the Dniper River at Kherson. The attack was destroyed with up to a couple dozen destroyed Russian tanks/APCs and dozens of casualties.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia lost critical terrain south of Bakhmut and the town is becoming increasingly encircled by either Ukrainian soldiers and/or artillery.
Unconfirmed reports that Russia has committed most of its reserve forces against the southern Ukrainian axes.
Russian Territory –
Russian ammo depot near the town of Sorokyne in Luhansk Oblast of Ukraine was hit by the Ukrainian military and secondary detonations have continued for hours.. The location is out of range of M142 HIMARS/M270 MLRS, so presumably the Ukrainians used Storm Shadow cruise missiles in this strike. This is one of the many strikes Ukraine has been making over the past couple weeks against logistical sites Russia once though were out of range.
OUTLOOK –
Cluster munitions for Ukraine will enhance their artillery capabilities and may assist in breaching Russian defenses since Ukraine lacks significant air support. For the record, Russia has been using cluster munitions in Ukraine since 2014.
The past year Ukraine has gotten quite good at counter battery fire and with the adaptation of drones to adjust the fire, quite deadly. The numbers of NATO artillery pieces has also given Ukraine about an 11 KM range advantage over Russian systems - being able to place outside of their counter battery capabilities while hammering Russian units.
Belarus -
See Ukraine regarding outward shipments of Russian military equipment
Also see Russia on Prigozhin disappearance from Belarus.
Syria -
The US military has accused Russian fighter jets of “unsafe” behavior for the third day in a row.
Mexico -
Mexican president warning foreign minister not to get entangled in the US elections on the illegal immigration issues.
Misc of Note –
Probable pending volcanic eruption in Iceland. Volcanologists expect highly fluid basalt eruptions similar to those a few years ago in the same region. Eruptions of other Icelandic volcanos have in the past been more vigorous and violent throwing ash all the way into Britain and western Europe, causing flight problems/cancellations and air quality concerns. So far the increased activity doesn’t appear to reflect such violent eruptions.
Look, we know how to compete and we’ve done it since our founding. But if men like Biden intentionally make enough horrible decisions we can fail.
We’ve known for years China was buying up and taking contorl of rare earth elements. And we did nothing.
We know they’re buying farm land in our country and we do nothing. We know they’re buying our food processing plants and we do NOTHING.
When we fought the Germans and Japanese in World War II we didn’t let Germans control the markets of things like ‘building tanks’ and producing electricity. We weren’t stupid.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Globalists have been cranking up the fear register on their climate change / global warming meter to near maximum recently. Claiming the hottest days in something like 125,000 years and spewing pseudo studies to support their claims - claims quickly shot down by real science. The goal of all this hype is to maneuver the world into accepting a climate crisis ‘emergency’ - not unlike wuhan - by which dystopian regulations on carbon consumption and other ‘climate change’ causations (like cattle and food production) and be globally imposed. In the case of the US, the marxists see the declaration of an “emergency” as a vehicle to bypass the constitution and will of the citizenry to the contrary to force their green agenda.
link to one rebuttal of the ‘hottest days ever’
https://hotair.com/jazz-shaw/2023/07/08/about-those-hottest-days-ever-n563208
So many parallel efforts have been exposed of late, such as the expansive govt intrusion into social media to censor “misinformation” which in the case of wuhan - that ‘misinformation’ turned out to be the truth. A convenient thing to insure the ruling powers that be keep their control on Washington, as well as other counties around the world.
IN RELATED - I noted this in a recent earlier post - in Sept 2024 the UN will be hosting a “Summit of the Future,” where member nations will adopt a Pact for the Future. This pact will involve a tremendous shift in power and authority to the UN in the event of an event of future “global shocks,” such as another worldwide pandemic. However, it is not limited there but is expansive to include a climate emergency, digital currency emergency, interplanetary emergency (i.e. something happening in space) and an authorization to allow these ‘emergencies’ to be unlimited in duration.
Biden / Harris watch –
Vice President Kamala Harris is going all-out to promote the LGBTQ agenda as her approval rating takes a dive. A NBC poll found that Harris’s net-negative rating is at -17, the lowest vice presidential rating in American history. Even Spiro Agnew is smiling in his grave.
**
Leftist media outlets link the “Hill” and the “Atlantic” are turning against biden in a more outspoken manner and are even on the verge of recommending that he drop out of the 2024 race. More and more the drug scandals of the biden crime syndicate are being reported in the msm news streams as media protection is diminishing.
China –
Chinese Communist Party leader Xi Jinping urged the regime’s military to deepen war and combat planning, as Sino-U.S. relations continue to sour and the tension in the Taiwan Strait intensifies.
Xi inspected the Eastern Theater Command on July 6 and met with representatives of officers and soldiers when he made the comments, according to state media Xinhua. Xi claimed that the world has entered a new period of turmoil and change and China’s security situation has become more unstable and uncertain. He required the military to “deepen war and combat planning to increase the chances of victory in actual combat.” (Epoch Times)
OBSERVATION - Xi has been urging increased military readiness for several years now. However recent rhetoric is changing to suggest an more imminent threat.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated July 9, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. With Ukraine lacking air superiority, Russia has taken chance in using its aircraft (helicopters and fast movers) to more directly assist its ground forces, though at an increasing loss of airframes.
The month plus of Ukraine offensive action has forced Russia to give up terrain on all fronts - most notably in the Bakhmut area where Russian forces are now being in danger of being encircled.
Russian reserves are increasingly being used to try to stop Ukrainian advances. Just how big and combat capable of a reserve force is debatable. Reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv may be a ploy to freeze some of the Ukraine forces out of the offensive to the south. However, this number includes cooks, bottle washers and other logistic elements, so the ‘teeth’ numbers are likely much lower.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russia is reportedly furious over the release back to Ukraine of the Azovstal defenders.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Hot with some highs reaching the 90s, with mid week forecast of thunderstorms and some rain.
RUMINT –
The Legion “Freedom of Russia” is reportedly planning another raid on the Russian territory.
“There will be another surprise. This will be our third operation. There will be a fourth and a fifth. We have ambitious plans,” - said the legion commander with the call sign “Caesar”.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
OPSEC has hit some key areas of Ukraine such as the Bakhmut axis and the southern axis including Kherson. Unconfirmed reports of significant Ukrainian tactical gains in those regions suggest that there could be rapid developments in those regions.
Strong thunderstorms hit the Kyiv and Kharkiv regions over the past few days. Storm front is passing into Eastern Ukraine and the associated low pressure cell is drifting towards the northeast.
President Zelensky accompanied Azovstal defenders to Lviv. These commanders surrendered to Russia in the Battle for Mariupol and then were subsequently traded for Ukrainian traitor and Putin’s puppet Medvedchuk. They have been in Turkey until today. They were suppose to remain there for the duration of the conflict.
Tokmak Axis -
Unconfirmed reports that the first line of defense has been broken, indicating that the town of Tokmak will be next. Tokmak is an important logistics hub for southern Ukraine.
Bakhmut Axis -
Milbloggers (especially Russian) noting Ukraine is gaining ground south of Bahkmut in leaps and bounds and Russian forces in the city are facing a growing likelihood of being surrounded.
Kherson Axis -
Added this category given the expansion of the Dniper River bridgehead at Kherson. Reportedly, pontoon bridges have been set up to facilitate movement of troops and supplies. Unconfirmed reports that Russia has attempted to break the bridgehead but have been stopped with substantial losses. Further unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces have reached the outskirts of Oleshky, the first city on the left bank of the river and a key hub necessary for break out into the rest of Kherson.
The lake bed of the former Kakhovka lake has completed dried out in the summer heat, providing numerous other potential crossing sites of the Dniper River further upstream.
OUTLOOK –
Piecing together scuttlebutt from the Ukrainian battlefronts suggest that Russian forces are locally buckling and Ukraine is gaining tactically significant terrain, at times more than a kilometer of advance per day. Right now much is wait and see.
The bru ha ha over cluster munitions will likely end with the US resolved to supply them to Ukraine. Russia has been using them since the 2014 invasion Donetsk and Lukanak Oblasts. Employed properly, these munitions could prove devastating to Russian defenses - especially if targeted at key break through points.
Belarus -
Now engaged with a Wagner dance, one is waiting to see just how this is going to play out.
Poland –
(Reuters) - Poland began moving over 1,000 troops to the east of the country on Saturday, the defence minister said, amid rising concern in the NATO-member that the presence of Wagner Group fighters in Belarus could lead to increased tension on its border.
OBSERVATION - The uncertainty of the final play-out of the Wagner saga has increased tensions in the region. Top of the list is Wagner using Belarus as a staging area to strike into Ukraine (or other adjacent NATO nations). In Poland’s situation, Wagner could be used to assist the border crossings of migrants that Poland has taken great efforts to keep out.
Europe / NATO General –
There are some concerning indicators that the migrant riots taking place for more than five days inside France, have begun to spread. In Zurich, Switzerland, a passenger train locomotive was set on fire and in GieBen, Germany, Rioters hit the Eritrea Festival. All the while pressures from immigrants trying to enter Europe continue and some countries attempting to lock down an regain control of their borders.
In France comes unconfirmed reports that the migrants have been supplied automatic weapons and even RPGs. It will continue to be an explosive summer in France who is already been hit by pension riots, now facing a more serious and violent challenge.
**
NATO has turned Vilnius into a fortress to ensure the safety of leaders attending the summit - Reuters
Unprecedented security measures have been imposed in Vilnius. Sixteen NATO countries have sent a total of about 1,000 military personnel to protect the summit.
Germany has provided 12 Patriot systems to protect Lithuanian airspace. Spain sent air defense systems NASAMS, and France sent self-propelled howitzers Caesar.
NATO’s military aircrafts and anti-drone weapons will also be deployed in Lithuania. Some countries will send there special operations forces.
The forthcoming NATO summit in Vilnius is considered by many to be historic. Yesterday it became known that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will take part in it.
OBSERVATION - The US plan to supply cluster bombs to Ukraine will be one of the hot topics of debate at this meeting, on top of other support of Ukraine issues. Turkish support of the immediate inclusion of Ukraine in NATO, an idea supported by many other NATO nations will also spark a lot of debate.
The security measures may see like overkill, however, it is set to send putin a message of don’t even think about it. Vilnus being close to the Russian border in a time of war could spark thoughts of a decapitation strike - such an act would undoubtably result in a NATO response and potential use of tactical nuclear weapons by both sides.
Israel –
Protests pro and con regarding judicial reform have resumed across the country as Netanyahu starts pushing the reform process again.
Turkey –
Turkish President Erdogan expressed support for Ukraine joining NATO, saying the country deserves to join the alliance. (AP)
OBSERVATION -This combined with the release of the Azovstal defenders back to Ukraine is an interesting pivot by Erdogan towards the west and away from Russia.
Misc of Note –
First it was a massive Mormon cricket invasion, now Utah is being hit by a massive grasshopper infestation that is showing up on weather radars. Crops in the Tooele region south of SLC are disappearing in a day. This just shows how quickly nature can alter projected crops yields.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Globalist/environmentalists hate cars, that much is certain and are seeking ways to make them inaccessible to the huddled masses. Latest target are brakes and tires, claiming they produce excessive toxic air pollution. Their claim is that they constitute 15 percent of PM (particle mass) 2.5 pollution, the same as pollution from gas and diesel.
Economy –
Speaking to reporters, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that a proposed BRICS common currency wouldn’t threaten U.S. dollar dominance.
“All the data of which I’m aware shows that the dollar is overwhelmingly, close to 90%, used in international transactions, and I don’t think that there is an alternative that could possibly displace that for the foreseeable future,” Yellen said.
OBSERVATION - Many other analysts tend to agree that BRICS currency is no immediate threat to the dollar, the compliance of the regime to the challenge is significant. No apparent effort to be made to correct / counter the underlying currents of dissent against the US that this BRICS effort represents.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden caught on video sniffing young girls again and telling them not to tell their parents.
See comments by biden on Israel in Israel below.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Some are taking note of the migrant riots in France on how quickly they spread, how quickly rioters were organized and the epicenters of the destruction. We could have saved them the effort, by posting them to the Floyd Riots of 2020. Key for both were the epicenters of violence being concentrated in urban areas. Rural areas striped the rioters of their logistical base and faced potentially stonger/lethal resistance. They could make a bigger message in the city.
In 2020, remember Antifa/BLM elements did try to penetrate rural areas surrounding their city war zones. In nearly every case, they were sent back with their tail between their legs by the silent but strong resistance and readiness to put down any nonsense. In some instances, Antifa et al was sent home with bleeding and bruises, as cops held back from protecting them.
**
Watching Antifa/Transtifa counter protesting anything ‘Christian’. Over the weekend they tried to disrupt a “March for Jesus” event in the Portland area. The Christians were not cowed by Antifa and the march went off inspire of their presence.
**
Leftists are apoplectic about the success of “Sound of Freedom”, exposing the pedophilic evil of child marketing. One must ask - those leftist voices are very loud - are they trying to protect themselves? The leftist assault on children, whether by human trafficking or bodily mutilation (transgenderism) is opening a huge fracture between Red and Blue, one that may contribute to the divide that is already forming CW2 / or a ‘great divorce’ scenario.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
A joint U.S. and Israeli Air Forces exercise began yesterday as part of the Juniper Oak joint exercise series.
The exercise will incorporate a number of scenarios, including long range strategic striking, the achievement of aerial superiority in the region and cyber defense in the face of a variety of threats and challenges.
Wuhan Plandemic –
Category long quiet here as wuhan news has shifted to the revelation of the lethality of the jab and the CDC’s efforts to hide such knowledge. Recently, CDC’ has been exposed for leaving certain diagnosis codes off Minnesota death certificates that cite COVID-19 vaccines as a cause of death, allegedly hiding vaccine injuries in federal records, shows “intent to deceive,” according to a person who helped analyze the death certificates for the Brownstone Institute, a think tank that challenges the scientific basis for COVID conventional wisdom and policy.
IN RELATED - A Lancet review of 325 autopsies after Covid vaccination found that 74% of the deaths were caused by the vaccine – but the study was removed within 24 hours.
The paper, a pre-print that was awaiting peer-review, is written by leading cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough, Yale epidemiologist Dr. Harvey Risch and their colleagues at the Wellness Company and was published online on Wednesday on the pre-print site of the prestigious medical journal.
However, less than 24 hours later, the study was removed and a note appeared stating: “This preprint has been removed by Preprints with the Lancet because the study’s conclusions are not supported by the study methodology.” While the study had not undergone any part of the peer-review process, the note implies it fell foul of “screening criteria”.
OBSERVATION - The covidians continue to be in serious CYA mode. These findings will likely find their way into lawsuits against Pfizer/Moderna and CDC/DHS, documenting deception and coverup - a key to removing the anti-lawsuit “protection” for the emergency use declaration.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Congress expected to get busy over the next few weeks to move legislation and get out of town for the August break.
Illegal Immigration –
Illinois will soon require landlords to rent and sell property to illegal aliens, opening the housing market to tens of thousands considered deportable from the United States. Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) signed SB 1817 into law, which will add “immigration status” as a protected class under the Illinois Human Rights Act. The law ensures that landlords across Illinois will be banned from refusing to rent or sell property to illegal aliens strictly because they are illegally in the U.S.
OBSERVATION - This will be a contributor to CW2 if left to stand. This is basically a French/european like response to the uncontrolled migration of illegals into the country. Already, housing (both buying and renting) is very, very tight for citizens, now throwing illegals into the mix is really going to twist the tails on many.
**
Biden administration has introduced a new immigration program to allow some nationals of Central America and Colombia to enter the United States.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced on July 7 that it’s implementing “new family reunification parole (FRP) processes” for Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. The program was first announced in April.
The FRP processes allow certain migrants with U.S. relatives to enter and work legally while they await their U.S. immigration visas. This could involve 100,000 illegals and likely more.
OBSERVATION - “Family reunification” has been one of the work arounds to US law and has fostered chain immigration that has worsened the illegal problem. Since this loophole is not authorized by law, expect lawsuits to follow. However, biden et all know that it will take years to reach the USSC and by then these illegals will be entrenched in the US and nearly impossible to deport.
China –
See Saudi Arabia below on economic ties
North/South Korea –
North Korea denounced on Monday what it called a move by the United States to introduce a nuclear missile submarine to waters near the Korean peninsula, saying it creates a situation that brings a nuclear conflict closer to reality.
In a related bleat, North Korea warned that it may shoot down U.S. spy aircraft in the East Sea of Korea. NK claims aircraft are entering its air space.
OBSERVATIONS - NK has targeted US reconnaissance planes in the past.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated July 9, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. With Ukraine lacking air superiority, Russia has taken chance in using its aircraft (helicopters and fast movers) to more directly assist its ground forces, though at an increasing loss of airframes.
The month plus of Ukraine offensive action has forced Russia to give up terrain on all fronts - most notably in the Bakhmut area where Russian forces are now being in danger of being encircled.
Russian reserves are increasingly being used to try to stop Ukrainian advances. Just how big and combat capable of a reserve force is debatable. Reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv may be a ploy to freeze some of the Ukraine forces out of the offensive to the south. However, this number includes cooks, bottle washers and other logistic elements, so the ‘teeth’ numbers are likely much lower.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russia is reportedly sending Chechen SOF to Bakhmut to bolster failing defenses there.
Putin reportedly fired Gerasimov from his post as commander of Russian troops in Ukraine. His place was taken by the commander of the Airborne Forces Teplinskiy, the Daily Mail writes. Gerasimov did appear overnight in a video preceding over a meeting, suggesting he hasn’t been totally tossed out of the Kremlin.
Teplinskiy is generally regarded as a competent leader with ample combat leadership experience - both Chechen wars and in Georgia.
The Prigozhin /Wagner soap opera continues with reports that Putin met mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin after the failed Wagner group mutiny last month, the Kremlin says.
Kerch Bridge update –
Russian sources accused Ukrainian forces of targeting the Kerch Strait Bridge on July 9. Crimean Occupation Head Sergei Aksyonov claimed that Russian air defense systems shot down a cruise missile in the Kerch area.
NOTE- the high altitude flight of the ‘target’ of the ADA systems argues against the use of a cruise missile. May possibly been a reconnaissance drone assessing Russian ADA deployment and reaction - both essential to know prior to an actual attack, and the Russians supplied the information unwillingly .
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Hot with some highs reaching the 90s, with mid week forecast of thunderstorms and some rain.
RUMINT –
Akhmat (Chechen) special forces have been sent to the Bakhmut direction to reinforce currently deployed Russian units and maintain the defense. Russian channels acknowledge the situation is problematic and that the AFU is advancing on multiple directions around the city.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia in the face of the Ukrainian offensive continues to try to push in the east, most recently around Avdiivka, north of Donetsk. Russian efforts reportedly have not been going will with the near decimation of a BTG with 60% equipment (armor/tanks) lost.
Ukraine fired something at the Kersch Bridge, and Russia is very skittish over the possibility of an attack soon.
See Turkey on sudden pivot to guarantee Ukrainian shipments of grain if Russia continues to refuse to extend the shipping agreement.
Ukraine apparently has adapted obsolete S-200 Anti-Aircraft Missiles in its inventory to hit ground targets, much like what Russia has been doing with S-300 missiles. One of these S-200 reportedly fell on a in the village of Bytosh, Bryansk region. Ukraine reportedly has a lot of these missiles in storage and they have a pretty fair range.
Tokmak Axis -
Reports continue that Ukraine has breached the Russian first defensive lines in this region.
Velyka Novosilka Axis-
Ukrainian forces have exploited topographic advantages, making progress in the Velyka Novosilka axis of the southern front, successfully advancing along ridges, and drawing Russian resources away from their main attack. This has resulted in over 1 km gains of terrain at several locations.
Explosions reported at Russian base north to Melitopol.
Bakhmut Axis -
Russia is reportedly sending Chechen SOF to the Bakhmut region to bolster failing defenses.
OUTLOOK –
Ukraine continues to wear down Russian defenses and are out maneuvering them. Russian milboggers continue to express concern over Ukrainian successes and Russia’s inability to stop them.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to hammer Russian artillery, EW, C2 and logistics - stripping the soldier on the ground of support desperately needed and allowing Ukraine to attain tactical advantages.
Push back to biden’s announcement to supply cluster munitions to Ukraine may result in the stopping of the supply. It will be a topic much discussed at the upcoming NATO talks in Vilnius.
Europe / NATO General –
Some initial info from the NATO summit is that US and Germany are blocking Ukraine’s official request for NATO membership. Key sticking point is that they say the war with Russia must end first.
Israel –
Biden has accused political extremists in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government of contributing to the rising tensions in the West Bank, saying they are part of the reason that a peace deal can’t be reached with the Palestinian Authority.
Netanyahu’s cabinet has “some of the most extreme members” to lead Israel’s government dating all the way back to Golda Meir’s administration in 1969, Biden said in a CNN interview aired on Sunday.
OBSERVATION - Not good to meddle with Israel. God has historically taken issue with such actions. biden regime has been one of the most anti-israel administrations in many years.
Iran –
See Strategic Activity / Deployments above on Juniper Oak joint exercise with the US
Saudi Arabia –
Saudi Arabia is investing billions into China, possibly up to $1 trillion by 2030.
OBSERVATION - biden has done remarkably well in offending and otherwise killing the long relationship between the US and SA. The growing economic ties with China are a feather in China’s hat and will help China’s ailing economy as well as tighten China’s grip on the Middle east and its oil.
Syria -
Syria, north of Aleppo, a Turkish base was attacked with a wave of rockets (MLRS) - most likely at this point from a Russian unit.
Turkey –
Turkey continues to surprise with the latest being the reports that the Turkish Navy will protect ships from the Russian Navy in the Black Sea corridor even if Putin withdraws from the “grain deal.” According to Ukrainian sources, Türkiye confirmed this commitment to Ukraine. The deal will lapse on July 17th. Russia has so far not agreed to renew it.
This raises an Article 5 scenario if Turkish naval vessels are attacked .
Turkish major combatants 82 including surface and sub surface ships. Russian Black Sea fleet main combatants 15.
OBSERVATION - First pivot on Ukraine membership in NATO, the release of the Avostal defenders and now this. Does Turkey smell blood in the water over Russia’s internal turmoil and failures on the battlefield?
IN POSSIBLE RELATED - Turkish base attack, see Syria.
Black Swans
Weather related disasters are one thing I monitor. What I’ve seen over the past couple of years is what appears to be an increase in historic flooding around the world. In just the past week major floods have hit -
Japan
Delhi and several regions in north India
Mongolia
China
Eastern US
Spain
Ukraine
Now this may seem little, but almost daily now extreme weather outside of the normal bars for climate events seems to be occurring somewhere on the Earth. Could be confirmation bias, but it is intriguing and something to monitor for your local situations.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Globalist/environmentalists hate cars, that much is certain and are seeking ways to make them inaccessible to the huddled masses. Latest target are brakes and tires, claiming they produce excessive toxic air pollution. Their claim is that they constitute 15 percent of PM (particle mass) 2.5 pollution, the same as pollution from gas and diesel.
Economy –
Speaking to reporters, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that a proposed BRICS common currency wouldn’t threaten U.S. dollar dominance.
“All the data of which I’m aware shows that the dollar is overwhelmingly, close to 90%, used in international transactions, and I don’t think that there is an alternative that could possibly displace that for the foreseeable future,” Yellen said.
OBSERVATION - Many other analysts tend to agree that BRICS currency is no immediate threat to the dollar, the compliance of the regime to the challenge is significant. No apparent effort to be made to correct / counter the underlying currents of dissent against the US that this BRICS effort represents.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden caught on video sniffing young girls again and telling them not to tell their parents.
See comments by biden on Israel in Israel below.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Some are taking note of the migrant riots in France on how quickly they spread, how quickly rioters were organized and the epicenters of the destruction. We could have saved them the effort, by posting them to the Floyd Riots of 2020. Key for both were the epicenters of violence being concentrated in urban areas. Rural areas striped the rioters of their logistical base and faced potentially stonger/lethal resistance. They could make a bigger message in the city.
In 2020, remember Antifa/BLM elements did try to penetrate rural areas surrounding their city war zones. In nearly every case, they were sent back with their tail between their legs by the silent but strong resistance and readiness to put down any nonsense. In some instances, Antifa et al was sent home with bleeding and bruises, as cops held back from protecting them.
**
Watching Antifa/Transtifa counter protesting anything ‘Christian’. Over the weekend they tried to disrupt a “March for Jesus” event in the Portland area. The Christians were not cowed by Antifa and the march went off inspire of their presence.
**
Leftists are apoplectic about the success of “Sound of Freedom”, exposing the pedophilic evil of child marketing. One must ask - those leftist voices are very loud - are they trying to protect themselves? The leftist assault on children, whether by human trafficking or bodily mutilation (transgenderism) is opening a huge fracture between Red and Blue, one that may contribute to the divide that is already forming CW2 / or a ‘great divorce’ scenario.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
A joint U.S. and Israeli Air Forces exercise began yesterday as part of the Juniper Oak joint exercise series.
The exercise will incorporate a number of scenarios, including long range strategic striking, the achievement of aerial superiority in the region and cyber defense in the face of a variety of threats and challenges.
Wuhan Plandemic –
Category long quiet here as wuhan news has shifted to the revelation of the lethality of the jab and the CDC’s efforts to hide such knowledge. Recently, CDC’ has been exposed for leaving certain diagnosis codes off Minnesota death certificates that cite COVID-19 vaccines as a cause of death, allegedly hiding vaccine injuries in federal records, shows “intent to deceive,” according to a person who helped analyze the death certificates for the Brownstone Institute, a think tank that challenges the scientific basis for COVID conventional wisdom and policy.
IN RELATED - A Lancet review of 325 autopsies after Covid vaccination found that 74% of the deaths were caused by the vaccine – but the study was removed within 24 hours.
The paper, a pre-print that was awaiting peer-review, is written by leading cardiologist Dr. Peter McCullough, Yale epidemiologist Dr. Harvey Risch and their colleagues at the Wellness Company and was published online on Wednesday on the pre-print site of the prestigious medical journal.
However, less than 24 hours later, the study was removed and a note appeared stating: “This preprint has been removed by Preprints with the Lancet because the study’s conclusions are not supported by the study methodology.” While the study had not undergone any part of the peer-review process, the note implies it fell foul of “screening criteria”.
OBSERVATION - The covidians continue to be in serious CYA mode. These findings will likely find their way into lawsuits against Pfizer/Moderna and CDC/DHS, documenting deception and coverup - a key to removing the anti-lawsuit “protection” for the emergency use declaration.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Congress expected to get busy over the next few weeks to move legislation and get out of town for the August break.
Illegal Immigration –
Illinois will soon require landlords to rent and sell property to illegal aliens, opening the housing market to tens of thousands considered deportable from the United States. Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D) signed SB 1817 into law, which will add “immigration status” as a protected class under the Illinois Human Rights Act. The law ensures that landlords across Illinois will be banned from refusing to rent or sell property to illegal aliens strictly because they are illegally in the U.S.
OBSERVATION - This will be a contributor to CW2 if left to stand. This is basically a French/european like response to the uncontrolled migration of illegals into the country. Already, housing (both buying and renting) is very, very tight for citizens, now throwing illegals into the mix is really going to twist the tails on many.
**
Biden administration has introduced a new immigration program to allow some nationals of Central America and Colombia to enter the United States.
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced on July 7 that it’s implementing “new family reunification parole (FRP) processes” for Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. The program was first announced in April.
The FRP processes allow certain migrants with U.S. relatives to enter and work legally while they await their U.S. immigration visas. This could involve 100,000 illegals and likely more.
OBSERVATION - “Family reunification” has been one of the work arounds to US law and has fostered chain immigration that has worsened the illegal problem. Since this loophole is not authorized by law, expect lawsuits to follow. However, biden et all know that it will take years to reach the USSC and by then these illegals will be entrenched in the US and nearly impossible to deport.
China –
See Saudi Arabia below on economic ties
North/South Korea –
North Korea denounced on Monday what it called a move by the United States to introduce a nuclear missile submarine to waters near the Korean peninsula, saying it creates a situation that brings a nuclear conflict closer to reality.
In a related bleat, North Korea warned that it may shoot down U.S. spy aircraft in the East Sea of Korea. NK claims aircraft are entering its air space.
OBSERVATIONS - NK has targeted US reconnaissance planes in the past.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated July 9, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. With Ukraine lacking air superiority, Russia has taken chance in using its aircraft (helicopters and fast movers) to more directly assist its ground forces, though at an increasing loss of airframes.
The month plus of Ukraine offensive action has forced Russia to give up terrain on all fronts - most notably in the Bakhmut area where Russian forces are now being in danger of being encircled.
Russian reserves are increasingly being used to try to stop Ukrainian advances. Just how big and combat capable of a reserve force is debatable. Reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv may be a ploy to freeze some of the Ukraine forces out of the offensive to the south. However, this number includes cooks, bottle washers and other logistic elements, so the ‘teeth’ numbers are likely much lower.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Russia is reportedly sending Chechen SOF to Bakhmut to bolster failing defenses there.
Putin reportedly fired Gerasimov from his post as commander of Russian troops in Ukraine. His place was taken by the commander of the Airborne Forces Teplinskiy, the Daily Mail writes. Gerasimov did appear overnight in a video preceding over a meeting, suggesting he hasn’t been totally tossed out of the Kremlin.
Teplinskiy is generally regarded as a competent leader with ample combat leadership experience - both Chechen wars and in Georgia.
The Prigozhin /Wagner soap opera continues with reports that Putin met mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin after the failed Wagner group mutiny last month, the Kremlin says.
Kerch Bridge update –
Russian sources accused Ukrainian forces of targeting the Kerch Strait Bridge on July 9. Crimean Occupation Head Sergei Aksyonov claimed that Russian air defense systems shot down a cruise missile in the Kerch area.
NOTE- the high altitude flight of the ‘target’ of the ADA systems argues against the use of a cruise missile. May possibly been a reconnaissance drone assessing Russian ADA deployment and reaction - both essential to know prior to an actual attack, and the Russians supplied the information unwillingly .
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Hot with some highs reaching the 90s, with mid week forecast of thunderstorms and some rain.
RUMINT –
Akhmat (Chechen) special forces have been sent to the Bakhmut direction to reinforce currently deployed Russian units and maintain the defense. Russian channels acknowledge the situation is problematic and that the AFU is advancing on multiple directions around the city.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia in the face of the Ukrainian offensive continues to try to push in the east, most recently around Avdiivka, north of Donetsk. Russian efforts reportedly have not been going will with the near decimation of a BTG with 60% equipment (armor/tanks) lost.
Ukraine fired something at the Kersch Bridge, and Russia is very skittish over the possibility of an attack soon.
See Turkey on sudden pivot to guarantee Ukrainian shipments of grain if Russia continues to refuse to extend the shipping agreement.
Ukraine apparently has adapted obsolete S-200 Anti-Aircraft Missiles in its inventory to hit ground targets, much like what Russia has been doing with S-300 missiles. One of these S-200 reportedly fell on a in the village of Bytosh, Bryansk region. Ukraine reportedly has a lot of these missiles in storage and they have a pretty fair range.
Tokmak Axis -
Reports continue that Ukraine has breached the Russian first defensive lines in this region.
Velyka Novosilka Axis-
Ukrainian forces have exploited topographic advantages, making progress in the Velyka Novosilka axis of the southern front, successfully advancing along ridges, and drawing Russian resources away from their main attack. This has resulted in over 1 km gains of terrain at several locations.
Explosions reported at Russian base north to Melitopol.
Bakhmut Axis -
Russia is reportedly sending Chechen SOF to the Bakhmut region to bolster failing defenses.
OUTLOOK –
Ukraine continues to wear down Russian defenses and are out maneuvering them. Russian milboggers continue to express concern over Ukrainian successes and Russia’s inability to stop them.
Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to hammer Russian artillery, EW, C2 and logistics - stripping the soldier on the ground of support desperately needed and allowing Ukraine to attain tactical advantages.
Push back to biden’s announcement to supply cluster munitions to Ukraine may result in the stopping of the supply. It will be a topic much discussed at the upcoming NATO talks in Vilnius.
Europe / NATO General –
Some initial info from the NATO summit is that US and Germany are blocking Ukraine’s official request for NATO membership. Key sticking point is that they say the war with Russia must end first.
Israel –
Biden has accused political extremists in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government of contributing to the rising tensions in the West Bank, saying they are part of the reason that a peace deal can’t be reached with the Palestinian Authority.
Netanyahu’s cabinet has “some of the most extreme members” to lead Israel’s government dating all the way back to Golda Meir’s administration in 1969, Biden said in a CNN interview aired on Sunday.
OBSERVATION - Not good to meddle with Israel. God has historically taken issue with such actions. biden regime has been one of the most anti-israel administrations in many years.
Iran –
See Strategic Activity / Deployments above on Juniper Oak joint exercise with the US
Saudi Arabia –
Saudi Arabia is investing billions into China, possibly up to $1 trillion by 2030.
OBSERVATION - biden has done remarkably well in offending and otherwise killing the long relationship between the US and SA. The growing economic ties with China are a feather in China’s hat and will help China’s ailing economy as well as tighten China’s grip on the Middle east and its oil.
Syria -
Syria, north of Aleppo, a Turkish base was attacked with a wave of rockets (MLRS) - most likely at this point from a Russian unit.
Turkey –
Turkey continues to surprise with the latest being the reports that the Turkish Navy will protect ships from the Russian Navy in the Black Sea corridor even if Putin withdraws from the “grain deal.” According to Ukrainian sources, Türkiye confirmed this commitment to Ukraine. The deal will lapse on July 17th. Russia has so far not agreed to renew it.
This raises an Article 5 scenario if Turkish naval vessels are attacked .
Turkish major combatants 82 including surface and sub surface ships. Russian Black Sea fleet main combatants 15.
OBSERVATION - First pivot on Ukraine membership in NATO, the release of the Avostal defenders and now this. Does Turkey smell blood in the water over Russia’s internal turmoil and failures on the battlefield?
IN POSSIBLE RELATED - Turkish base attack, see Syria.
Black Swans
Weather related disasters are one thing I monitor. What I’ve seen over the past couple of years is what appears to be an increase in historic flooding around the world. In just the past week major floods have hit -
Japan
Delhi and several regions in north India
Mongolia
China
Eastern US
Spain
Ukraine
Now this may seem little, but almost daily now extreme weather outside of the normal bars for climate events seems to be occurring somewhere on the Earth. Could be confirmation bias, but it is intriguing and something to monitor for your local situations.
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