Threat Matrix

Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats

Economy –

Rumblings and aftershocks from the weekend’s debt ceiling ‘agreement’ are still shaking the political world. Both left and right are not happy about it but at this stage is looks like something that will pass.

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The average 30-year mortgage rate in the US is 7.14%. the average APR for refinancing a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.52%, whereas it was 6.39% last week.

OBSERVATION - Not good news for the housing market as the summer season kicks in - commonly when most homes get sold due to the nicer weather.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

Left-wing extremism is linked to toxic, psychopathic tendencies and narcissism, according to a new study published to the peer-reviewed journal Current Psychology.

“Based on existing research, we expected individuals with higher levels of left-wing authoritarianism to also report higher levels of narcissism,” the authors wrote.

As result of the new data, study authors Ann Krispenz and Alex Bertrams have coined a new term for such psychological behavior: the “dark-ego-vehicle principle.”

“According to this principle, individuals with dark personalities — such as high narcissistic and psychopathic traits — are attracted to certain forms of political and social activism which they can use as a vehicle to satisfy their own ego-focused needs instead of actually aiming at social justice and equality,” they told PsyPost.

OBSERVATION - The great MaHa Rushie always said liberalism is a mental disorder, now the evidence is on the table. Recent violent, psychopath rants and attacks by the left against society bear their report out. Hence, as a potential CW2 scenario develops, these violent leftists are the most likely source of a violent conflict.

Wuhan Plandemic –

Cleveland clinic study found that “The higher the number of vaccines previously received, the higher the risk of contracting COVID-19” has been peer review published. Cleveland clinic is No. 2 Hospital in World.

OBSERVATION - This linkage has already been noted, but now formalized in a peer reviewed report.

China –

The Biden administration is in talks to bring Taiwan under the U.S. nuclear umbrella. If it does, Biden would be obligated to use nuclear weapons against China if it invaded its own country.

OBSERVATION - If correct, this move could have frightening consequences as China appears to be willing to use nukes against the US. biden policy would imply US first use of nukes.

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China has rebuffed a U.S. request for a meeting of U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and China’s Defense Minister Li Shangfu at a security forum in Singapore this coming weekend, the Pentagon said. Li Shangfu, is sanctioned by the U.S. for purchasing Russian military hardware from Russian arms company Rosoboronexport which would explain a large portion of the reason for rejection.

North/South Korea –

Satellite launch warning -See Japan below.

Japan –

CNN —
Japan’s Defense Ministry warned on Monday it would destroy any North Korean missile that enters its territory after Pyongyang notified the country of plans to launch a “satellite” between May 31 and June 11.

“We will take destructive measures against ballistic and other missiles that are confirmed to land in our territory,” Japan’s Defense Ministry said in a statement.
North Korea’s space development agency had said last year it would finish preparations for the reconnaissance satellite by April 2023.

A Japanese Coast Guard spokesman said the notification of the launch by Pyongyang came via email. It said North Korea plans to launch its satellite toward the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and east of Luzon, Philippines, in an area outside Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone, the spokesman said.

OBSERVATION - Satellite launches double as a weapons test at this stage. Provides truer attack profile data versus the high altitude lobs of recent tests. Also tests payload size and insertion estimates.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 22 2023

Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.

Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.

Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with fewer forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.

Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in the Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka, but are failing badly.

Russia has been successful in finally capturing Bakhmut - a very pyrrhic victory by all counts, but doesn’t have the forces necessary to exploit the capture.

Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. This means that these barrages will be further apart. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to improving Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.

Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.

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Moscow hit by small drones, minor damages - read more under Ukraine below

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s - 70s, predominantly dry throughout the forecast period.

RUMINT –

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
“We have approved the dates for the start of the movement of our troops, decisions have been made,” says Zelenskyy, in clearest signal yet that Ukraine’s counter-offensive may soon start in earnest. Shaping operations have already been going on for weeks.

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Russia has continued striking Kyiv with another round of missile / drone attacks. Ukraine’s air defenses intercepted more than 20 drones. So far it appears that none of the missiles reached their targets, though buildings were set on fire from falling debris from the intercepts.

Ukraine returned the favor overnight with a drone attack consisting of about 30-32 drones. According to some sources, Ukrainian UJ-22 or “Beaver” Attack Drones were used. It is also reported that one of the types of UAVs that attacked Moscow is the UJ-22 Airborne attack drone manufactured by Ukrjet. It can fly up to 800 kilometers and carry a load of 15-20 kilograms.

Moscow City Officials have announced that Air Defense Batteries were able to shoot down at least 10 drones which were detected over the city with damage from debris and “Successful Impacts” affecting multiple residential buildings; it was additionally stated that Emergency Services are currently on-scene of at least 1 fire though there are no injures being reported.
Recent reports that Moscow has turned the GPS jammers back on due to this drone attack. Residents once again are having issues with their car navigation. Jammers were deployed following the drone attack on the Kremlin.ㅤ

Kharkiv Front -
Russian forces attempted to conduct offensive actions northwest of Savtove.

OUTLOOK –
Russia and Ukraine will continue to throw missiles at each other’s capitol for a while. And while Ukraine’s attack on Moscow wasn’t physically very successful, it was greatly successful at putting fear into the Muscovites and embarrassing putin. Russia’s missile/drone efforts against Ukraine seem to follow the same tactic as their ground war - head on attack against the strongest positions. Russia is not attacking facilities/locations that could hamper the Ukraine preparation for their offensive. This could be do to a lack of actionable intelligence or a bull headedness to think they could cause Ukraine to submit through a largely ineffective missile attacks on Kyiv.

Zelenskyy’s statement puts notice out there that the hammer is about to fall. Where is still a question - though stated priority is the liberation of Crimea, meaning that the Ukraine army must punch through occupied Zaporizhizhia. Increasing targeting of Russian units/facilities in depth suggest that final battlefield preparations are being made. The most significant tip off to the offensive would be a strike on the Kerch Bridge - cutting off Russian supply lines again - making them rely on the threatened and under attack rail network in southern Ukraine (the Russian “land bridge”).

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic met with Russian Ambassador to Belgrade Aleksandar Bocan-Kharchenko.

The President of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić stated during an address to the nation earlier tonight that he has ordered the Serbian Armed Forces be deployed to the border with Northern Kosovo once again and that he is planning to meet with diplomats from the Quinet (U.S, U.K, France, Germany, and Italy) at 0800 tomorrow morning in hopes that “Peace in the region can be preserved.”

KFOR statement: The number of peace-keepers wounded during yesterday’s unprovoked violence in the municipality of Zvecan is 30. 11 soldiers from the Italian contingent and 19 from the Hungarian contingent sustained multiple injuries, including fractures and burns from improvised explosive incendiary devices.

KFOR statement:This morning, the NATO-led FOR mission has increased its presence in the four Municipalities of northern Kosovo, following the latest developments in the area. The aim of KFOR’s presence is to ensure a safe and secure environment and freedom of movement for all communities in Kosovo, in accordance with its mandate from the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244 of 1999.

OBSERVATION - At this stage Serbia is chest beating. They cannot rely on Russian for support in a shooting match, and NATO is already prepping rapid deployment forces if Serbia crosses the line.

Iran –

Tensions remain high on the Iran/Afghanistan border region.

Syria -

After a considerable period of quiet, Assad and Russian forces have been hammering southern Idlib region with artillery and air strikes.

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

Tensions remain high on the Iran/Afghanistan border region.

Mexico -

Mexico’s Secretary of State Marcelo Ebrard is scheduled for another trip to Florida next month, where he plans to campaign against U.S. immigration laws and the presidential campaign of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

OBSERVATION - Weakness observed in the gov’t response to the illegal surges has given Mexico confidence to meddle in the affairs of the 2024 election.

Venezuela -

Venezuela’s Maduro expresses his desire to join BRICS. Brazil’s President Lula says he also wants Venezuela to join BRICS, but says all parties must vote on it first.

OBSERVATION -The move to counter the dollar as the world currency continues.

Black Swans

CBS Mornings covered a recent Department of Homeland Security (DHS) report warning far-right activists could be targeting the U.S. power grid as a way to disrupt the country and the government’s ability to operate.

Despite first claiming the attacks would be done by “right-wing” extremists, the actual DHS paper states individuals “adhering to a range of ideologies will likely continue to plot and encourage physical attacks”

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dhs-white-nationalist-attacks-power-grid/

Conservative journalist and activist Candace Owens discussed a government-induced power grid collapse in a recent viral video, saying, “The World Economic Forum is predicting a cyber pandemic is inevitable.”

OBSERVATION - Some are thinking that the powers that be are telegraphing the next big disaster in a manner similar to the wuhan plandemic.
My biggest concern is any damage caused to key power transformers at crucial grid interconnects. All or nearly all, are one of a kind units that are custom made, unlikely that companies will have any just laying around. The grid does have manual override capability - sending crews to open/close switching - to get the grid back up. But this requires reliable comms to coordinate power generation/load to the sections being brought back on line.

Worst case scenario is that there is damage to key transformers. Most strongly impacted would be the eastern half of the country with outages in some areas lasting weeks until power can be rerouted around damaged substations. “best case” scenario is power is out for a few days as systems get reset manually. some regions may not even be out that long.

The heavy reliance on electrical power for our society and economy is a serious area of weakness. While the DHS is looking at its phantom “white terrorists”, the more realistic attacker would be China - and especially when on the verge of executing an attack to seize Taiwan. A national power outage would have the potential to freeze much of the country’s response, though US military bases have their own backup power and comms.

On a more extreme end, some think the US govt would shut down the grid. Extreme to the point of conspiracy theory, but at this stage of the gov’t s migration into tyranny, no something inconceivable.

Globalism / Great Reset –

A new World Health Organization initiative asks member states to combat what the agency calls an ‘infodemic’ — an overabundance of information, “accurate or not,” that makes it difficult for people to “adopt behaviors that will protect their health and the health of their families and communities.”

A WHO document outlining the PRET initiative — “Module 1: Planning for respiratory pathogen pandemics, Version 1.0” — contains a definition of infodemic:

“Infodemic is the overabundance of information — accurate or not — which makes it difficult for individuals to adopt behaviors that will protect their health and the health of their families and communities.
“The infodemic can directly impact health, hamper the implementation of public health countermeasures and undermine trust and social cohesiveness.”

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2023/05/who-initiative-would-promote-desired-behaviors-by-surveilling-social-media/

OBSERVATION - Take a moment to read the link - they explain the situation far better than I can summarize here.

Control of the information available to the public became a prime objective of the globalists and their lackeys across the globe and especially in the US where govt dictated to social media what to allow on the interwebs. The wuhan plandemic and US political games pulled back the curtain on these actions which went as far as getting people fired from their jobs and destroying sectors of the economy. Now we know that they were just lies and the truth has been trickling out about those lies and actions.

However, the globalist “information” campaign did work for the globalists didn’t it. Countries were shut down and national politics were messed with. So what’s to stop them from taking it to the next level? With the breakout of AI . . . . . .

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Related - Last week, governments from around the world sent delegates to the annual World Health Assembly in Geneva. They will be meeting until May 30. The main objective of this year’s confab is to radically extend the organization’s power over healthcare and citizens under the guise of improving “health” and fighting future disease outbreaks in a coordinated global fashion.

OBSERVATION - Still only seeing that final approval has been shifted to May 2024 - but that is borderline rumor. Still waiting to see deeper analysis of their plans.

Economy –

America’s credit card balance has passed $1 trillion, or it’s about to, depending on whom you ask. The average interest rate on a new card is 24 percent, the highest figure since the Reaganomics era.

A typical American household now carries $10,000 in credit card debt, by one estimate, another record. If that doesn’t sound like a lot of debt, try paying it off. At $250 per month, with 24 percent interest, you’ll be making payments until 2030, and you’ll spend a total of $20,318, twice what you owed. And that assumes you never use the card again.

OBSERVATION - One of the first things I did upon retirement was to pay off my credit cards. Took a hit on at hand cash, but the $$$ saved on payments has offset that initial hit. And this was on a card with 12%.

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The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) is forecasting lithium shortages due to demand for green energy initiatives outstripping global production. Current global production is 2.46 million tons per year, while demand is expected to be near 4 million tons by 2035, leading to price increases and, eventually, shortages, according to Cochilco

OBSERVATION - Mining of essential metals globally is way behind what is necessary as the above notes. Chile is the world’s second-largest lithium producer and has the world’s largest reserves. The US has substantial reserves and potential, but environmental wackos are fighting tooth and nail to stop these mines from getting started. It already takes a good decade plus of efforts just to get a mine authorized even to the point of breaking dirt - and then the lawsuits don’t start.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

Giant Food, which operates 165 supermarkets in D.C., Maryland, Virginia and Delaware, has taken multiple measures to combat theft and keep stores safe, according to a report in The Washington Post. That includes limiting store entrances; hiring security guards; restricting the number of items at self-checkout stands; putting less high-value items on shelves; and securing razor blades in containers that make noise if opened.
Company president Ira Kress said he’s seen theft rise at least “tenfold in the last five years” and violence increase “exponentially.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/giant-grocery-chain-fighting-to-keep-stores-open-as-theft-violence-has-increased-exponentially-report/ar-AA1bTdcU?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=04e6f7e30f42487e876f13f6aa1b35c4&ei=8

OBSERVATION - The uptick can be traced to the 2020 rioting but has its roots further back. For one example, the nutjobs in Kalifornia voted to give a get out of jail card for theft less than $950 and across the country progressive, Soros backed AGs have been ‘reforming’ the criminal justice system. The overall goal is to create such a level of chaos and fear that the sheeple will flock to these marxist solutions to problems that they have created in the first place - the classical Hegelian Dialectic.

As stores close in these blue city hell holes, violence and theft will spread (and in some cases already has) to more affluent suburbs - the purpose being to increase fear and intimidation. The left hopes for a violent push back through which they can put down further opposition to their plans.

Terrorism -

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has issued a warning of “a heightened threat environment,” including possible attacks against such institutions as churches and the police, as the 2024 election draws closer.

Just The News reports that the Memorial Day bulletin issued by the DHS also warned of political violence that could be sparked by “legislative or judicial decisions pertaining to sociopolitical issues.”

“The United States remains in a heightened threat environment,” the bulletin declares. “Lone offenders and small groups motivated by a range of ideological beliefs and personal grievances continue to pose a persistent and lethal threat to the Homeland.”

“Both domestic violent extremists (DVEs) and those associated with foreign terrorist organizations continue to attempt to motivate supporters to conduct attacks in the homeland,” the statement continued, “including through violent extremist messaging and online calls for violence.”

Among the recent examples cited by the memo is the recent Covenant School shooting in Nashville, Tennessee, where a far-left “transgender” radical carried out a mass shooting at a Christian school, presumably in retaliation for the school’s opposition to transgenderism; the shooting left three children and three adults dead.

The memo also noted the coming 2024 election, claiming that “in the coming months, factors that could mobilize individuals to commit violence include their perceptions of the 2024 general election cycle.”

OBSERVATION - Listed here, could cross reference to CW2. By far, all the major incidents have been initiated by leftist entities, DHS continues the mantra of white nationalists being the key threat. I pretty much agree, there will be increasing threats and incidents as the 2024 elections approach - but those threats will be from leftist organizations and individuals. Actions by the right could increase if the biden regime takes a hard turn and starts openly attacking the people.

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Prosecutors dropped every single charge, leaving Kandula, the guy who tried to crash the White House gate with a UHaul truck , with nothing but “a single count of depredation of property of the United States in excess of $1,000,” the Post notes.

OBSERVATION - A lot of people are going Hmmmmm on this one.

Wuhan Plandemic –

Emerging evidence that mRNA toxins are being passed from jabbed mothers to their infants via breastfeeding. This has been indicated in the past, now being documented via peer-reviewed processes and sources.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The FBI has told House Oversight that it will NOT comply with a subpoena request for the unclassified documents it alleges directly link then-VP Biden to an international bribery scheme. The committee will now move to hold Christopher Wray in contempt of Congress.

OBSERVATION - The contempt is valid - only that the DoJ / FBI will refuse to act on it.

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Fallout continues from the debt ceiling deal. The House Rules Committee passed the debt ceiling deal in a 7-6 vote, and minority leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) said Democrats would cross the aisle to get the bill through the House.

Meanwhile, Rep. Dan Bishop (R-NC) is calling for a motion to vacate that would remove McCarthy from the speakership over the deal.

China –

Factory activity in China shrank faster than expected in May due to weak demand. This, combined with other challenges from the property sector is going to further wrinkle the rebound of China’s economy. Economists had thought that growth of China’s economy would help offset the effects of a global recession. Now those hopes are being called into question. Will have to monitor oil prices that have been forecast to rise on increased Chinese demands.

North/South Korea –

I sent out a notice that NK launched its rocket yesterday. That event caused alerts to be issued in Seoul and Japan to have people go to shelters and prepare to evacuate.

NK acknowledged the launch and even went on to say that the rocket failed during second stage separation. NK stated that this was a ‘new’ rocket - suggesting a model different from the ICBMs they have been launching via high transjectory flight paths this year.

SK this morning is showing photos of what they claim are parts of the rocket recovered at sea near a SK controlled island.

OBSERVATION - Will need to see if this is a ‘new’ rocket, or a modified preexisting model.

Japan –

See North/South Korea above

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 22 2023

Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.

Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with fewer forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.

Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in the Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka, but are failing badly.

Russia has been successful in finally capturing Bakhmut - a very pyrrhic victory by all counts, but doesn’t have the forces necessary to exploit the capture.

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RUMINT-
Putin is running out of options to retaliate against Ukraine. Missile and drone attacks on civilian targets have been mitigated and there are increasing indications Putin might once again be plotting a red flag incident at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.”

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s - 70s, predominantly dry throughout the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia’s missile campaign appears to have taken a pause overnight. Rich Russians in Moscow suburbs that were hit by the Ukraine drones are still up in arms. Those drones flew well below the nation’s radar network, enabling them to close in on the city.

Relatively quiet along the front, with minor engagements initiate by both sides.

ㅤ
Russian Territory –
Explosions have rocked the Afpisky oil refinery in southern Russia after a drone attack. A fire is raging. Other border cities have been hit by scattered Ukraine artillery strikes.

OUTLOOK –
Russia is quickly losing the initiative on the battle lines most likely due to Russian efforts to try to conserve forces to build an effective reserve to counter any offensive pushes by Ukraine. As stated before, the whole Bakhmut tar baby has not helped, with Russian having to commit a lot more forces to the region due to the pull out of Wagner.

Ukraine continues to nail major Russian command, logistics and troop centers deep inside occupied territory while Russia’s missile/drone efforts have fizzled out. Ukraine appears to have a successful integration of types of ADA assets that keep shutting the door on Russian efforts.

I think that the offensive will kick off within the next couple weeks. Ukraine cannot keep the stakes high for much longer, nor allow Russia to develop a reserve. Weather/terrain is now switching to favorable. I still watch the Kerch bridge strike as a key indicator. Ukraine will take it out again to totally spoil Russian logistics flow into Crimea.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

In the north of Kosovo, the night passed peacefully, however Serbs have been gathering again since this morning.

NATO will send an additional 700 troops to Kosovo, and will also prepare another battalion in case of need - Stoltenberg

US Department of State: Kosovo’s actions to forcibly enter municipal buildings has escalated confrontation. Violence against Kosovo Force peacekeepers, police, and journalists is unacceptable. All parties must immediately lower tensions and return to the EU-led Dialogue

OBSERVATION - Things needlessly to say are still tense in the region. I think Serbia is just pulling up to the line but will hold off on direct combat.

Iran –

Tensions remain high on the Iran/Afghanistan border region.

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

Tensions remain high on the Iran/Afghanistan border region.

Globalism / Great Reset –

From Ireland it is being reported that 200,000 cows will need to be culled in order to meet climate targets . Internal documents reveal that a €200m budget is needed to cull 65,000 cows every year for three years to meet climate goals.

OBSERVATION - Another country setting itself up for eventual starvation as the dictate of the WEF. Remember, John effn Kerry wants to shut down agriculture in the US as well. Food is a great controller of the masses.

Economy –

BlackRock ($9T AUM) warns clients that the U.S. has “arguably” entered recession -
“[Gross domestic product] has held up but it [the U.S. economy] has arguably entered recession based on gross domestic income… We see the Fed nearing a pause in rate hikes and living with some inflation to avoid the deep recession needed to get inflation near its target,” BlackRock analysts write.

OBSERVATION - More tea leave readings. With BlackRock’s close proximity to the leaders of the WEF, their analysis could be close to happening. Many other economists have also been warning of a deep recession should the Fed continue hiking rates.

Wuhan Plandemic –

New studies examining the excess death count in countries suggest that the jab in the US caused deaths in the 400,000 range. Excess deaths are one factor that cannot be ignored and the relationship to the jab are pretty well established.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The House passed the bipartisan debt ceiling deal in a 314-117 vote, and the bill will now move to the Senate, where a vote is expected as early as Friday. it is likely to pass the senate at this time. McCarthy is now facing a move to remove him as speaker.

OBSERVATION - This does not surprise me.

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FBI Director Wray confirms he’s withholding FBI docs alleging a ‘criminal scheme involving then-Vice President Biden and a foreign national’

OBSERVATION - Eric Holder was charged with “contempt” and nothing happened to him. The clear admission of such documentation is condemning just in itself - and the depth of the swamp is clear - protect biden and democrat power at all costs.

Illegal Immigration –

Blue “sanctuary” cities across the country are beginning to buckle under all the illegals pouring into them. Creates internal friction with the existing social welfare class.

China –

According to Satellite imagery provided by commercial imaging company Planet Labs, China is undertaking a large-scale expansion of its airfields along the disputed India-China border, also known as the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

OBSERVATION - The cave man war where Indian and Chinese soldiers went at each other with rocks, clubs and fists is still unresolved and China is digging in, knowing that the only way India can regain control of the region is a far more substantial war. Not unlike the tactics China has been using to exert force controls in the south china sea region - building islands and militarizing them.

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Chinese leader Xi Jinping has called on his top national security officials to think about “worst case” scenarios and prepare for “stormy seas,” as the ruling Communist Party hardens efforts to counter any perceived internal and external threats.

“The complexity and difficulty of the national security issues we now face have increased significantly,” Xi said Tuesday at a meeting of the party’s National Security Commission, state news agency Xinhua reported.

He has expanded the concept of national security to cover everything from politics, economy, defense, culture and ecology to cyberspace. It extends from the deep sea and the polar regions to space, as well as big data and artificial intelligence.

https://news.yahoo.com/xi-jinping-tells-china-national-090522217.html

OBSERVATION - While the implications are closely aligned towards a warning about military action, China has ongoing economic issues that are keeping its production of goods depressed.

North/South Korea –

Analysis of photos released by NK indicate the missile attempting to launch a surveillance satellite earlier this week , the Chollima-1 suggest that the SLV first stage may be powered by dual nozzle RD-250 derived liquid fuel engine as fitted to their Hwasong-15 ICBM.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 1 2023

For all practical purposes, Russia’s winter offensive is over. Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders. Battlefield initiative is being taken over by Ukraine. At no location along the front is Russian succeeding in the attack.

Russia has been successful in finally capturing Bakhmut - a very pyrrhic victory by all counts, but doesn’t have the forces necessary to exploit the capture. It has also depleted its forces of a very usable reserve force to counter Ukrainian offensive actions.

Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. Recent multi-way attacks on Kyiv resulted in most of the missiles/drones (well over 90%) being shot down and very few reaching a target.

Battle field shaping operations have forced Russia to spread its forces out, further complicating its defensive posture.

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Some analysts think yesterday’s drone attack appeared to targeted not just Moscow - it was aimed at Rublevka, an elite real estate area in Moscow region where many of Russia’s richest and most influential people reside - including Putin.

Overnight, Moscow has had another round drones over the city. Russian air defense, so far, has succeeded in shooting them down. The origin of the drones is unknown, but likely Ukraine.

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Former Russian President and current Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev continued threatening EU/NATO nations with a statement on Wednesday that U.K. officials actively supporting Ukraine are legitimate military targets for Russian forces.
NOTE - Russia has been making essentially the same warning for the past 16 months plus.

NUCLEAR THREATS –

RUMINT-
There is unconfirmed information from several Russian sources that Putin has decided to remove Shoigu from his post.

Kadyrov noted that the Russian military command ordered Russian, Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard), and Chechen Akhmat forces to begin offensive actions along the frontline in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts as well.
NOTE - The Chechens have largely been sidelined for nearly a year, most commonly being used as a backstop to intercept Russian soldiers going AWOL from the fight. Russia doesn’t have the capabilities to conduct any serious offensive actions at this time.

Kerch Bridge update –
Questionable photos alleging to show massive cracks in the bridge pylons circulating the intewebs.

Logistics –
Russia continues to expend its supplies of long range precision strike missiles. Russia is currently estimated to have less than 194 Kalibr, Kh 101/Kh-555, Iskander and Kinzhal missiles remaining in stock.
NOTE - The drawdown of Russian’s missile supplies has been noted for many months now. Yet Russia continues to throw these missiles at Ukraine. Makes me suspect a significant undercount of the systems in the Russian inventory. Never the less, they are hitting low inventory levels and are increasingly reliant on S300’s and Iranian drones for strikes.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia continues trying to recruit from regional prisons -with little success.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s - 70s, predominantly dry throughout the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine hit Moscow with another smaller round of drones overnight. Russia launched 7 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 3 Iskander-K cruise missiles at Kyiv. All missiles were shot down, but fragments of the destroyed missiles hit an apartment building and a pediatric hospital.ㅤ

More fun and games along the Ukrainian border with the Russian Bilhorod Oblast.

Kharkiv Front -
Russian army launched several S-300 missiles at Industrial district of Kharkiv.

Ukraine forces continue to make minimal gains on the flanks of Bakhmut while targeting Russian forces conduction switch over of forces with Wagner elements in the city proper.

Russian Territory –
The Russian regime authorities are gradually losing control of the situation around Shebekino, Belgorod/Bilhorod Oblast, Russia.

The main administrative building in the Lenin Street is burning as a result of Ukraine artillery fire. The Monocrystal plant in Shebekino has been hit. The plant provides specialist LED, solar power and electronics solutions to the Russian military. Military fuel tankers were also reported to be at the plant when it was attacked.

The Freedom of Russia Legion has crossed into Russia from Ukraine again and is currently involved in heavy battles against the Russian Army in the village of Novaya Tavolzhanka, near Shebakino in the Belgorod region. Russian sources are reporting fighting with mechanized vehicles/tank(s) in the Belgorod region in the vicinity Shebekino

OUTLOOK –
Russian response to the Belgorod/Bilhorod Oblast incursions by the Friends of Russia, the recent drone strikes on the wealthy suburbs of Moscow and continued heavy strikes on C3, logistics and troop concentrations appear to have tipped Russia into a reactive mode, as desired by Ukraine battlefield shaping operations. Ukraine is calling the shots now. Tight OPESEC by Ukraine continues on its troop concentrations and tactical intents, but I still think the offensive will kickoff within the next couple weeks. To go much longer will wear down on Ukrainian readiness and permit Russia to potentially interdict forces/supplies and identify where the hammer will fall.

RUMINT from Russian social media channels are that the Russian forces are on edge and are expecting to get slaughtered. Another reason to strike sooner than later.

Europe / NATO General –

Berlin is revoking permits for the operation of four out of the five Russian consulates in Germany.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

In the north of Kosovo, the night passed peacefully, however Serbs have been gathering again since this morning.

OBSERVATION - There will likely be more violence by the Kosovoan Serbs, but I think it will not go well for them and that the violence will gradually decline. Serbian may threaten military action, but too many European / NATO countries are itching to bomb Serbia a few decades back again.

Israel –

The ‘hotline’ between Israel and Russia designed to warn/coordinate Israeli airstrikes in Syria is reportedly shut down by Russia. This could result in Russian ADA taking a shot at an Israeli plane and the Russians becoming a target instead. Such would instigate a potential serious confrontation - although Russia has its hands full in Ukraine. Some view recent Israeli strikes having the IAF launching from within Israeli airspace to avoid a confrontation.

Iran –

Tensions remain high on the Iran/Afghanistan border region.

Syria -

See Israel above

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

Tensions remain high on the Iran/Afghanistan border region.

Globalism / Great Reset –

A new Montana law bans financial institutions from treating firearm purchases differently than general merchandise purchases.

“A financial institution may not require a firearms retailer in this state to use a firearms code that is different from that of a general transaction,” Senate Bill 359 reads. The 2nd Amendment Financial Privacy Act was passed by the Legislature in April and signed into law by Gov. Greg Gianforte last month.

OBSERVATION - This ‘code’ has been reported on and has been seen by many as a backdoor way of monitoring who is purchasing firearms and ammo - enabling a ready accessible record of gun owners. As these are global credit card companies, a WEF based element could use the data to target individuals and companies for shutdown as the CBDC process rolls out. Its nice to be in a Red State like Montana - but global forces will not let it rest and will find other angles to get at the same data.

Economy –

Those high prices we pay at the grocery store due to Bidenflation are affecting the bottom line for consumers. Higher grocery prices mean less money available in family budgets for other shopping. Retailers are slashing their sales predictions this week, sounding an alarm that a downturn is here. This affects all consumers, from upper class shoppers at Nordstrom to middle class shoppers at Macy’s to the most budget-minded shoppers at Dollar General stores.

https://hotair.com/karen-townsend/2023/06/02/blame-bidenflation-retailers-slashed-their-sales-projections-this-week-n555069

OBSERVATION - As the article notes - secondary and tertiary effects spread outward, to distributors and transportation as well as those businesses employees of those companies spend their money at. Slashed sales also starts to put a cap on wage growth - no money/no higher wages - which further stresses the family budget.

**
Senate passed the debt ceiling bill. Bloomberg economists say the bill could extend and deepen the coming recession and do nothing to halt the trajectory of U.S. debt – they expect the debt-to-GDP ratio to hit 117% this year.

Meanwhile, rumors are that the Fed has reached its “pause” point for new interest rate hikes.

**
The nation’s employers stepped up their hiring in May, adding a robust 339,000 jobs, well above expectations and evidence of strength in an economy that the Federal Reserve is desperately trying to cool.
The unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, from a five-decade low of 3.4% in April.
The stronger hiring demonstrates the job market’s resilience after more than a year of rapid interest rate increases by the Fed. Many industries, from construction to restaurants to health care, are still adding jobs to keep up with consumer demand and restore their workforces to pre-pandemic levels.

OBSERVATION - Key here is restoring to pre-pandemic levels. Our economy still is struggling to reach that level. A ‘hot’ job market will continue to keep pressures on the Fed to continue to raise rates. However, since the economy is still working to restore pre-wuhan conditions, there is a lot less meat on the bones to absorb a recession.

Biden / Harris watch –

Biden fell on stage after handing out the last diploma to the Air Force cadets, going down on his knees

OBSERVATION - The ever increasing evidence of his physical feebleness, combined with the evident decline in his mental faculties is striking fear in the democrats as they push for his re-election. Quite frankly, I’m surprise he has lasted this long.

BTW - After arriving back in Washington, DC, via Marine One, Biden bumped his head trying to exit the helicopter.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Wray relented and has agreed to bring a subpoenaed document from the Biden family investigation to Capitol Hill for lawmakers to inspect on Monday, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer announced Friday.

The document in question, an FD-1023, contains uncorroborated allegations that an informant provided the FBI in June 2020 alleging that Joe Biden, when he was vice president, was engaged in a bribery scheme to change US policy in return for $5 million to his family’s businesses, lawmakers have said.

OBSERVATION - Wray’s stonewalling only put the DoJ/FBI into an even tighter bind as it seems public opinion that they are covering for the biden crime syndicate is growing. He had no legal leg to stand on - the document was request was fully under the purview of the House committee and claims of ‘classification’ or ‘source’ revelations were non starters. It will be interesting to see if the FBI tries to edit out key portions under those two claims.

China –

China’s Henan Province is experiencing the worst heavy rains in a decade – right when farmers are supposed to be harvesting an already damaged winter wheat crop. Officials dispatched emergency teams to drain fields ahead of more rain over the weekend. At least 15-20% of China’s total annual wheat production has so far been damaged.

OBSERVATION - A few days ago I reported that globally, the wheat crop is anticipated to be very good. The events in China go to point out that nature has ways of eliminating bumper crops in key regions that can then flip the narrative to that of shortages and high prices. Impact from this Chinese crop disaster have yet to ripple out across the global economy, but I expect China to soon start buying every available bushel of wheat it can get its hands on, like it has over the past few years with other crop failures. This will keep the price of wheat on the high side.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 1 2023

Battle field shaping operations have forced Russia to spread its forces out, further complicating its defensive posture.

********

NUCLEAR THREATS –
The U.S. has stopped sharing key information related to nuclear weapons with Russia. Russia’s unilateral suspension of the New START treaty necessitated this reciprocal gesture from the US.

The US is also revoking visas for Russian nuclear inspectors and cancelling standard clearances for Russian airplanes to enter US airspace

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s - 70s, predominantly dry throughout the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia’s missile/drone assault on Kyiv continues with 15 cruise missiles and 21 strike drones were shot down by Ukrainian air defense last night (100% shutdown).

The all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps & Freedom of Russia Legion continued to plague Russian border towns by conducting another raid.

Russian tension is building in anticipation of the Ukraine offensive.

Donetsk Front ——
Russian action at Bakhmut and Avdiivka have died down with only scattered artillery fire. Ukraine continues to make varying degrees of progress on the flanks of Bakhmut.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Russian sources are claiming that Ukraine artillery fire has substantially increased in this sector.
Explosions were reported striking the port in Berdiansk - a major receiving point for Russian ammo supplies

Crimean front ———
Several explosions reported in Henichesk, located along the northeastern access points to Crimea from the so called “land bridge” from Russia.

Russian Territory –
Ukraine carried out a 400 KM drone attack on one of Russia’s largest oil refineries at Krasnodar Krai. The strike precisely targeted the plant’s oil distillation facility, which is the most critical unit in the refinery.

Multiple large explosions in the Russian town of Kursk overnight.

Elements of the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps & Freedom of Russia Legion reportedly conducted another raid into Belgorod Oblast, Russia on June 1. This time launching a raid in the vicinity of Shebekyne, located northeast of Kharkiv.

OUTLOOK –

BLUF - IMHO, it is becoming clear to me that the hammer will strike Zaporizhizhia with possible supporting attacks in eastern Ukraine. Much of the battle field shaping attacks have been toward Zaporizhizhia and Crimea and reports of increased conventional artillery and ground attacks are also indicators. This main axis it also the most direct route to Crimea - Ukraine’s stated objective. Supporting attacks to the east would serve to cut off the Russian ‘land bridge’ to Zaporizhizhia/Crimea once the Kerch Bridge is taken out again.

The offensive will be fought using two primary principles.
1) Tactical maneuver of trained combined arms teams against poorly trained and equipped Russian forces. This was made evident by last years Kharkiv offensive
2) Massive assault on Russian logistics and support. Key examples of this were the defeat of the Russian attacks in the north as well as the liberation of Kherson.

These two combine to isolate Russia forces and permit defeat in detail. One must realize that Russia’s forces are widely dispersed along the front and are heavily reliant on rail to move troops and material. They currently have long lines of communications to follow to move reactive forces to counter any Ukraine assault. Ukraine OTOH, has shorter lines of communications and thus are less reliant on rail, beefing up their road supply capability which increases their tactical flexibility.

The key question is how deep into Crimea will Ukraine be able to advance. The primary axis likely will be across the narrow Isthmus of Perekop that connects the peninsula to Kherson Oblast in mainland Ukraine along the E97 highway to the Crimean town of Krasnoperedkospk south of which the terrain opens up again. The rest of northern Crimea is relatively protected by the extensive and wide the Syvash lagoons. Ukraine currently has no identified amphibious assault capabilities with the size and capacity to conduct any large scale assaults on any of the western beaches of the peninsula. Speed of the attack will be critical for Ukraine to make a bridgehead onto Crimea via Perekop.

A secondary axis would drive towards the Sea of Azoz and the city of Mariupol - in a drive to further isolate Russian forces in the southern region from reinforcements from the east. This would avoid the heavily fortified regions around Donetsk but would allow Ukraine forces to rampage through rear areas to either the east or west, pressuring forces in eastern Ukraine.

There will likely be other more localized counter attacks in eastern Ukraine to freeze up Russian forces there.

I’m still seeing kick off within two weeks. Military forces lose their edge if kept at high levels of readiness for long periods. Hints from Ukraine leadership is that it will kick off sooner, not later.

**
Russian launched missile/drone attacks on Kyiv 21 out of 31 days last month. They achieved very little as Ukraine ADA maintained virtually 95-100% shoot down percentage. Russia seems to be ignoring any Ukraine locations that are coming together for the offensive - no significant degradation of Ukraine forces. Russia has continued the focus on Kyiv as well as a few other cities.

**
The Ukraine Ministry of Defense says that the ultra-long-range Storm Shadow missiles recently provided by Britain have already been wreaking havoc on Russian targets with stunning accuracy. Designed to strike at long-range, fixed-location targets, Storm Shadow has reportedly hit 100% of its targets since Ukrainian forces started using the cutting-edge, guided missile earlier this month. Russia of course denies this claim, but facts on the ground are hard to dispute. Storm Shadow has become a big of a game changer as HIMARS did many months ago, enabling Ukraine to accurately hit HVTs at longer distances than they have been able to in the past. Russia has found their command, control, logistics and personnel concentrations increasingly under fire, distressing their preparations for a Ukrainian offensive. It has also given Ukraine the opportunity to strike key facilities throughout the whole theater - hear that Kerch Strait Bridge. Russia must now stretch its cobbled communications out over even longer distances and spread its ammo/logistical dumps over wider areas in smaller quantities to survive the onslaught.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Poland has decided to strengthen Moldova, helping it defend against a potential Russian coup d’etat. Poland is donating a huge shipment (2 Hercules planes and 4 CASA planes) of weapons, ammunition and other equipment) to the Moldovan Ministry of Interior.

OBSERVATION - Increasingly warlike talk from Moldovan leaders against the Russian forces holding Transnistria. Momentum may be growing for Polish/Romanian supported action to drive the Russian forces out - perhaps as early as this year. Other news reports definitely have Moldovian security leaders speaking very hawkish about their capability to accomplish that task. Russia caught in the woes of an Ukrainian offensive and heavily drawn down military contingent in Transnistria may not be able to hold the ground.

Poland –

See Moldova above

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

Under pressure from Western leaders, Kosovo’s PM and President said they are open to new local elections in the four northern Serb-dominated municipalities

OBSERVATION - The Kosovian Serbs brought this on themselves by boycotting the last elections. This will only serve to sustain unrest, now with Serbian aligned municipalities that will continue to rebel against Kosovian govt.

Iran –

Washington Post reports that Iran has been building and training forces to target and kill US personnel and expel US forces from Syria, according to classified documents leaked on the Discord messaging platform. This campaign would be similar to that being conducted by Iranian backed militias in Iraq targeting iraqi commercial truckers supporting US/allied forces.

Turkey –

Repercussions from Erdogan’s victory means at the end of his new five-year term Erdogan will have held Turkey’s most powerful office for 25 years. Financial markets aren’t pleased with Erdogan’s re-election. Today the value of the Turkish lira hit a new all-time low: 20.75 to the U.S. dollar. (Austin Bay)

OBSERVATION - He will continue the high wire act, wooing Russian while maintaining NATO membership (and the benefits thereof). This further means that he will continue to see himself as the new sultan of the renewed ottoman empire - exerting force where and whenever he sees fit.

Mexico -

Video showing Sinaloa Cartel members in Guamuchil, Sinaloa with an AT-4 making waves in the interwebs. Some saying they obtained the AT-4s from black market Ukraine sales, but AT-4s have been available from international arms traffickers from Latin America inventories or even from illegal sales from stolen US military stocks in the past.

Black Swans

Persistent reports warning of power grid failures and blackouts this summer. These warning have been gaining over the past few years as the ‘green’ forces have shut down more coal/gas power plants and underwhelming replaced them with far, far less reliable and resilient wind and solar power projects. I have noted warnings by utilities of increasingly difficulties maintaining load balances - keeping the power network supplied with enough power to avoid brown/blackouts. In emergencies, that buffer is increasingly thin. Strongly recommend keeping a watch on your local power situation as the heat of summer comes upon us - particularly those in kalifornia, desert southwest and the eastern US in general.

**
In another H/T to TIK, the flood of illegals are bringing a plethora of diseases into the country that in essence sets us up for multiple epidemics to develop. Very serious are antibiotic resistant forms of tuberculosis, common in the third world and highly virulent. Numerous other diseases are coming in and very, very few if any are screened for them before being dumped on our streets where they in many cases join that already health/sanitation challenged homeless encampments.

Globalism / Great Reset –

World Health Organization (WHO), the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB), a body convened by the WHO, has called for a worldwide pandemic simulation to be carried out by the end of this year to test the effectiveness of the new terms before member nations sign them in 2024.

“We feel very strongly that we cannot wait for the next emergency to find out how well the pandemic accord and the IHR amendments will work; we need to know now,” Joy Phumaphi, co-chair of the GPMB, stated on May 22. “We therefore suggest that Member States, together with other key stakeholders, carry out a simulation exercise based on the draft accord and draft IHR amendments later this year, before they are finalized and adopted.”

Phumaphi said that the GPMB’s “Manifesto for Preparedness” includes three “tests” for the treaty and IHR amendments. These are whether the treaty and IHR amendments are “sufficiently powerful,” whether they “deliver equity and coherence,” and whether they “have robust mechanisms for monitoring and accountability.”

OBSERVATION - Now confirmed that the final vote on the amendments to the IHR is postponed to May 2024, this latest is very concerning. Not only because of the ““sufficiently powerful,” whether they “deliver equity and coherence,” and whether they “have robust mechanisms for monitoring and accountability.”” aspects, but that this is tracking to parallel the Event 201 plandemic gaming that occurred just prior to the wuhan plandemic breakout. Globalists have been ‘warning’ of a new pandemic - IMHO telegraphing their plans. The massive population controls they succeeded in establishing has only encouraged them.
NOTE - this next ‘pandemic’ according to WEF/WHO is one that will target the children/youth. Not surprisingly expected to occur 2024/2025 time frame.

ALSO NOTE - why telegraph? It is to make sure all elements are on the same time frame and ready to activate. The 2024/25 time frame also fits into the overall goals of full global reset by 2030. Thus the increasing centralization of power within global ‘government’ authorities. Pause for a moment over what wuhan served as a trigger for :

- DIGITAL PASSPORTS/IDs.
- DIGITAL CURRENCY
- GREATER PUSH FOR CLIMATE CHANGE CONTROLS.

Just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse . . . . .

Economy –

Germany, home to Europe’s biggest economy, has now fallen into a recession as consumer spending drops in the wake of higher energy prices.
During the first quarter of the year, the company’s GDP dropped by 0.3 percent, following a contraction of 0.5 percent during the last quarter of 2022. This meant Germany met the definition of a recession, which is two successive quarters of economic contraction.

The economic downturn in Germany saw household final consumption expenditure drop 1.2 percent during the first quarter of the year, and higher energy prices are one of the main driving factors. Although energy prices were already on the rise when Russia first invaded Ukraine more than a year ago, the conflict has seen them hit record highs. Although the situation now appears to be easing somewhat, with inflation slowing in Germany in April, it still remains quite high at 7.2 percent.
https://www.naturalnews.com/2023-06-02-germany-recession-high-energy-prices-reduced-spending.html

OBSERVATION - Our economies globally are tightly tied. What affects one also is daisy chained to other countries. The US is not exempt and this adds another brick to the probability that we will be in the same boat soon.

**
On Thursday’s broadcast of NPR’s “Morning Edition,” White House National Economic Council Deputy Director Bharat Ramamurti stated that the Biden administration plans to try to get some of the concessions it made in the debt limit bill back in future legislation.

OBSERVATION - Deal in good faith the democrats say. Charlie Brown met Lucy.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

Pay attention to the words. Transtifa violence is based on verbiage - that is any contradictory words are defined by them to be physical violence directed against them. Therefore, they are justifying actual physical violence in return - as self defense. This is an expansion of the infamous ‘Snow flakes’ of the Before Years and has become a tool to attempt to silence any and all opposition.

**
Leading House Republicans won’t back the reauthorization of powers under the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act without major reforms in the wake of the FBI’s FISA abuses and special counsel John Durham’s report.
Rep. Mike Turner (R-OH), chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL), the Turner-designated leader of the committee’s FISA Working Group, and Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA), another key committee member, all spoke with the Washington Examiner about the need for guardrails before FISA powers are reauthorized.

OBSERVATION - FISA has been weaponized against innocent US citizens by the deep state dwellers. It needs to be put down like a rabid dog. However, with that said, the deep state has also been busy developing and cultivating other sources and methods to collect intelligence on US citizens in a work around to FISA - acts that obfuscate their tracks in ways that FISA doesn’t permit.

**
The Department of Homeland Security has been called out by GOP lawmakers for its repeated targeting of conservative Americans, and for funding a university program that explicitly links the Republican Party, as well as Christian and conservative groups, into the same category as organizations that promote Nazi ideology, Fox News reported on Friday.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/homeland-security-andy-biggs-alejandro-mayorkas/2023/06/02/id/1122202/

OBSERVATION - News like this is almost a daily occurrence. Especially since the 0bama regime, the left has increasingly sought to pin the tail of nazi ideology on the right and in particular Christianity. Ranging from defining parents in opposition to woke policies of schools as “domestic terrorists” to latin based Catholics a domestic threat, to pro-life being the violent ones, etc This is setting up for an eventual govt crackdown on anything that opposes its leftist/marxist goals and narrative.

Wuhan Plandemic –

Biden Administration is about to choose Dr. Mandy Cohen to replace Dr. Rochelle Walensky as director of the Centers for Disease Control.
Cohen shares the same health authoritarian impulses as Walensky. She supported mask and vaccine mandates - and lockdowns even in 2021. But she is apparently more bureaucratically competent, and thus more dangerous, than Walensky.

OBSERVATION - This must be kept in context with the WHO efforts to centralize pandemic control and powers over the world. See Globalism / Great Reset for more on this.

**
As more Pfizer documents are being force into daylight by FOIA and lawsuits, it is becoming even more clear that Pfizer knew by November 2020 that its mRNA COVID Vaccine was neither safe or effective.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 1 2023

Battle field shaping operations have forced Russia to spread its forces out, further complicating its defensive posture.

**
Between the border incursions and drones hitting Moscow and other cities/facilities PR spin from the Kremlin is working overtime.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s - 70s, predominantly dry throughout the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Situation is static along the LOC. Ukraine continues to surgically target Russian C3, logistics and troop concentrations through out the occupied areas of southern and eastern Ukraine, with an apparent emphasis on southern Ukraine.

Donetsk Front ——
There are some rumors that Russia is moving elements from the Bakhmut region to support an offensive to capture the city of Marinka, about 40 KM west-southwest of Donetsk. At this stage the city is a ruin, and could easily be bypassed to the southwest, seizing highway h-15. But for some Russian reason, they want to continue to attack straight into another meat grinder.

Russian Territory –
More than 100 soldiers of the Russian Volunteer Corps have reportedly crossed into Russia from Ukraine near Urazovo-Verigovka, east of Belgorod. There are reports of heavy clashes taking place against the Russian Army.

Partisan Resistance ——
A vehicle with collaborators was blown up in Mykhailivka of Zaporizhzhia region

OUTLOOK –
Russian Volunteer Corps continues to play games in the minds of Russians and Russian military planners. So much so that now some are even wildly speculating that a significant incursion into Russia as part of the Ukraine offensive is a possibility. Already the relatively small Pro-Ukraine Russian militias are demonstrating the overall weakness of the Russian border and even EU countries are softening to the thought of no longer making Russia ‘off limits’ to Ukraine.

Still looking at a T- 2 week window for the offensive to kick off.

Misc of Note –

Tropical Depression 2 formed in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico at 21:00 UTC on June 1, 2023. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast calls for slight strengthening into a tropical storm on June 2 and degeneration into a remnant low on June 3.

OBSERVATION - All you folks in Hurricane country - better get a start on updating your preps, just sayin.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Senior officials from about two dozen of the world’s major intelligence agencies held a secret meeting on the fringes of the Shangri-La Dialogue security meeting in Singapore this weekend, five people told Reuters.
Such meetings are organized by the Singapore government and have been discreetly held at a separate venue alongside the security summit for several years, they said. The meetings have not been previously reported.

OBSERVATION - What a surprise, the ‘intelligence’ officials, spy kings of WEF directed govts.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

Matt Walsh’s movie “What is a Woman” viewable for free on Twitter though this weekend, sent shockwaves through the interwebs after a cohort of twitter centrists - holdovers from the censor culture of Twitter sought to cancel the video. The ruckus around this video is remnant of the culture wars which have morphed IMHO into components of todays ‘cold’ CW2. As I’ve noted in a previous TM post, the left is now defining ANY view contrary to the narrative to be actual VIOLENCE and as such the left feels that their VIOLENCE is fully justified in return.

It is important we know who the enemy is and what their beliefs and goals are.

I strongly recommend viewing this today, as it may or may not continue in the free view format.

https://twitter.com/realDailyWire/status/1664424891372941312

**
Conviction of members of the Oath Keepers group are a precursor of what the govt intends to do to the population in general. This is essentially a form of battlefield preparation - govt nipping leadership from established patriot related groups in an effort to put fear into the remaining membership as well as other groups. The bites they are taking are not big enough to trigger a major pushback but enough to serve their purpose to place doubt into the organizations. I’ve said it a thousand time, there is a very high likelihood of other patriot, 3 percent, etc groups being infiltrated by actual agents or paid informants. Time to seriously clean the rolls of your group.

Terrorism -

See Illegals below for terror arrests.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The USS Gerald R. Ford, the largest warship in the world, carrying more than 90 aircraft (60+ F-35’s) has been transferred to NATO Command. As of yesterday, 2 June 2023, the vessel was preparing to conduct activities in the Norwegian Sea with other Allied forces.

OBSERVATION - Some have freaked out about transfer of command to NATO. This is very common, especially for exercises. This is the Ford’s first full deployment and they are still working bugs out of many systems - most critical are continued problems with the catapult launch system.

Illegal Immigration –

With five months left in the 2023 fiscal year, 2022’s record of 98 watch list arrests will be easily surpassed in the coming months. Border Patrol agents caught 16 people on the FBI’s terror watch list trying to illegally cross the U.S. southwest land border between entry ports in April, bringing this fiscal year’s suspected terrorist arrest total up to nearly 100. With about 5 months left before the end of the FY, the number of identified terrorists will definitely continue to rise. The number of terrorists caught exceeds the TOTAL combined numbers for FY 2107-2019 and 2020. Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection also suggests that the number of suspected terrorists arrested in April alone was five times the three watch list apprehensions listed for all of FY 2019 and FY 2020.

OBSERVATION - Bad enough for the increase in crime, but the potential for terror has increased substantially. The mayhem could be off the charts.

**
Federal & TX law enforcement sources are reporting that multiple times this week, suspected members of the Northeast Cartel, armed w/ rifles, crossed into the US in the Fronton, TX area in the Rio Grande Valley with 5 arrested yesterday via Border Patrol.

OBSERVATION - Loss of border control has emboldened cartels to begin moving their forces northward to establish controlled territories in the US. This activity will only increase.

China –

A Chinese warship came within 150 yards of hitting American destroyer USS Chung-Hoon during joint Canada-U.S. mission. Embarked journalists captured the moment on video & witnessed the near collision. The People’s Liberation Navy ship picked up considerable speed and cut in front of the bow of the USS Chung-Hoon.”

“The fact this was announced over the radio prior to doing it clearly indicated it was intentional.”

OBSERVATION - playing chicken is a common ploy of the Chinese military. More commonly seen in aircraft intercepts, they are not adverse to use it on the sea as well, knowing that the US (or other vessel ) will likely back off its course to avoid collision.

BTW China continues to probe the Taiwan ADZ with aircraft and ships.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 1 2023

Battle field shaping operations have forced Russia to spread its forces out, further complicating its defensive posture.

********
Wagner’s Prigozhin has opened up another verbal assault on the Russian MoD,this time in relation to cross border raids in the Belgorod region. He is
seizing on general Russian discontent with security on the Belgorod Oblast border to threaten that Wagner forces may operate in Russian territory without approval from the Russian military command. Prigozhin claimed that Wagner will not wait for an invitation or permission from the MoD to defend Belgorod Oblast if the MoD does not curb security threats to the region.

In another outburst , Prigozhin claimed that MoD forces mined the roads out of Bakhmut - slowing their withdrawal from the city, and that was purposeful to damage Wagner forces.

This open display of insurrection is an escalation in the behind the scenes knife fight with the MoD. There are already increasing thoughts that Prigozhin is fomenting conditions for a coup attempt against Putin, though putin continues to keep him in his circle.

Russian Personnel Issues –-
Regular Russian forces have likely finished relieving Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut amid a low offensive tempo in the area as of June 3. Depleted VDV units identified as some of those forces.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs in the 70’s and 80’s. predominantly dry throughout the forecast period.

RUMINT –
Some suggesting that UK is supplying stealth versions of its cruise missiles to Ukraine.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that his forces stand ready to launch their long-promised counteroffensive to reclaim Russian-occupied territory.

The U.S. administration believes that together with allies and partners, they have adequately provided military assistance to Ukraine for conducting a counteroffensive, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on June 2.

**
Much smaller missile/drone attack on areas outside of Kyiv overnight with 4 of 6 cruise missiles and 3 of 5 drones were shot down overnight

Russian Territory –
Those Russian Freedom fighter (and now with affiliated Polish legions) are continuing to make life miserable for border Russians, with shelling reported in Murom, Novaya Tavolzhanka villages, Schebekyne town of Belgorod region

Ukraine’s Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula, there are reports of explosions near the air base at Dzhankoy. Apparently Dzhankoy heli base in occupied Crimea was hit some hours ago too.

Mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, reports that the railway track near Dolyns’ke was blown up. It was used to transport Russian personnel and military equipment to the front,

OUTLOOK –
I continue to see the clock ticking down to the kickoff of the offensive. Weather across the southern and eastern Ukraine is favorable and nearly all of the mud has dried up. Recent Russian milblogger reports of considerable Ukrainian artillery fire across most of the front is suggestive of soon offensive action -as the broad artillery will mask the actual breakthrough areas.

Strategic missile fires into Crimea is serving to force Russia to move those assets further from the combat zone. Increasing targeting of rail lines pushing the Russian supply weakness. Though good work crews could have the lines back up and running in days, in those days several more sections will need repair/replacement.

The continued raids into Belgorod Oblast are creating favorable conditions as well - forcing deployment of precious operational reserve forces into the Oblast. Second is the big propaganda hit to putin - clearly showing Russia isn’t safe. So far these raids have been conducted by forces up to 500 men and Russia has been impotent from stopping them. Now they have reinforcements from Polish nationals.

Wagner PMC’s leader Prigozhin is really hanging it out there and it will be seen just how much rope putin will give him before reeling him in. His rants are powerful propaganda for Ukraine to build upon and the threat of a shooting insurrection is growing. Some think he may be given the Belgorod sector to command. One thing is coming out, Prigozhin seems to be changing his game plan from dropping Ukraine operations for Sudan to seeking another sector for him to command.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

The Turkish defense ministry announced Saturday it will be sending a commando battalion to northern Kosovo in response to a NATO request for troops to help quell violent unrest.

The request came from NATO’s Joint Force Command Naples, the ministry said in a press statement posted on its official Twitter account, and the battalion will join the alliance´s peacekeeping mission in the region, known as KFOR, as a reserve unit.

Iran –

See Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan below on weekend clashes.

**
(Reuters) - Iran’s navy commander said his country and Saudi Arabia, as well as three other Gulf states, plan to form a naval alliance that will also include India and Pakistan, Iranian media reported on Saturday.

OBSERVATION - I think this is more propaganda than anything else. Iran continues to capture ships and threaten gulf neighbors, so the thought that these same threatened countries will suddenly form a military alliance with Iran is very questionable. But it does demonstrate the disintegration of US influence in the region.

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -

The Taliban clashed with Iranian border guards over the weekend. The fight took place in the Nimroz province of Afghanistan, on its south western border with Iran. At least three people died, and others were wounded in a dispute about water rights in the region.

OBSERVATION - Big play on the interwebs was the videos showing the captured US equipment deploying to the conflict zone.

Turkey –

See SERBIA / KOSOVO above

Mexico -

Cartel elements now starting to routinely operate on US territory — See Illegalse above.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Biden’s regime signed a global agreement with twelve other nations, including Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Chile, and Spain, to crack down on farming to “save the planet” from “climate change.”

John Kerry, represented America in the pledge and said in May:
“We can’t get to net zero; we don’t get this job done unless agriculture is front and center as part of the solution,” Kerry, Biden’s climate czar, said at the AIM for Climate summit in Washington. “Food systems themselves contribute a significant amount of emissions just in the way in which we do the things we’ve been doing,” Kerry asserted.

“With a growing population on the planet – we just crossed the threshold of eight billion fellow citizens around the world – emissions from the food system alone are projected to cause another half a degree of warming by mid-century.”

OBSERVATION - Please note! First it was SUVs, next fossil fuel power plants, now it is agriculture. One of the stated goals of the WEF (Remember the Georgia guidestones statement too) is to drastically reduce the population to a ‘sustainable’ level. Eliminating electrical power, drastically cutting off the food supply will cause people to die. It will also cause increased resource wars which will also kill more people. Too many are asleep at the wheel on this issue, so this issue is rapidly growing - from Netherlands killing its agriculture, to Ireland culling up to 200,000 head of cattle, to Canada essentially banning fertilizer and now the focus is fixed on the US.

**
A trial of universal basic income (UBI) will be trialled for the first time in England where 30 people will be given a monthly stipend with no strings attached.
The UBI scheme, to be run by the Autonomy think tank, will see 30 people given a monthly allowance of £1,600 a month without any requirements. The scheme will take place in the town of Jarrow in the North East of England and in the East Finchley area of North London, Sky News reports.

The pilot scheme will also draft a control group that won’t receive the free cash, in order for the researchers to measure the impact of the money on the lives of the participants.

OBSERVATION - buried in the proposals and goals of the WEF is this UBI concept tied to digital currency controls. Universal communism for all but the elite.

Economy –

Wednesday next week the fed is expected to come to a new rate decision. Early prognosticators are thinking that another quarter to half point increase is probable.

**
Saudi Arabia will reportedly be cutting back on the amount of oil it exports to the world economy, in an effort to support the sagging price of crude after two earlier supply cuts by major oil-producing nations in the OPEC+ alliance failed to do so. The other OPEC+ members also decided to extend earlier production cuts through next year during a conference in Vienna, which coincides with the Saudi Arabian cut of 1 million barrels per day set to begin in July.

OBSERVATION - Recessions bring declines in oil demand. OPEC+ wants to keep prices “stable” and to do that they have to tailor supply to meet demand. Cutting production indicates that at the earlier reduced pumping rates, surplus was developing - which pushes down prices. So this global indicator shows economic slowdown. A big player in this is China who is facing an economic downturn - opposite of the hopes of OPEC+ who were earlier in the year looking at an upturn.

China –

There are multiple sources stateing that Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Iran agreed to conduct joint naval security for the region under China’s guidance.

OBSERVATATION - This grants China almost unprecedented control of the region if true. Further indication that the US has ceased to be the main influence in the region.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 1 2023

Battle field shaping operations have forced Russia to spread its forces out, further complicating its defensive posture.

********

PMC Wagner detained and interrogated no other but the commander of the 72nd Brigade, Roman Venevitin. Wagner and the 72nd Brigade shared positions in Bakhmut.

They detained the man, beat him, broke his nose, and forced to record a video admitting to firing at a car of PMC Wagner due to “personal animosity” towards them.

OBSERVATION - There is a great deal of hate between Wagner and regular forces. Part of this story includes regular Russian forces firing upon withdrawing Wagner elements. This follows reports that Russia also mined exit route taken by Wagner.

**
Broadcasting of MIR TV company was hijacked starting 12:41 and before 13:18, aired fake address of Putin, - statement of company

RUMINT-
The Russian Ministry of Defense has announced that they believe a Major Offensive Operation by the Ukrainian Armed Forces has begun with Battles and Ukrainian Advances from the 23rd and 31st Separate-Mechanized Brigades of the Ukrainian Ground Force being reported earlier today in 5-Sectors along the Front specifically near the Town of Novodarivka in the Zaporizhia Region and the Town of Neskuchne in the Southern Dontesk Region.

REMEMBER - there will be a lot of misinformation flying from both sides. This story is important for Russian as putin / MoD try to regain control of the narrative in russian information space. Video provided by Russian sources do not support this claim - Ukraine sources are silent.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs in the 70’s and 80’s. predominantly dry throughout the forecast period.

RUMINT –
Some suggesting that UK is supplying stealth versions of its cruise missiles to Ukraine.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Armed Forces ask for silence in the information space. OPSEC making confirmation of some reports difficult.

Russian targeted Ukraine with more cruise missiles and Iranian-made drones on June 4 making it the fourth consecutive day of strikes across Ukraine

Ukraine’s losses in the Battle of Bakhmut were lower than Russia’s by a factor of 7.5, National Security and Defense Council chief Oleksiy Danilov told Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera.
NOTE - Historical averages for defender losses are often in the 8-10 factor. So these numbers fit pretty well to history and are being considered credible. Others have calculated that for every 19 inches of ground gained in Bakhmut cost one Russian life. While costly, the strategy effectively bleed Russia of forces they will desperately need in the coming weeks/months.

Donetsk Front ——
Explosion reported near Azovstal in Mariupol.

According to head of PMC Wagner mercenaries Russian troops have partially withdrawn from Berkhivka village north of Bakhmut

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Explosions were reported in Russian controlled Mykhailivka of Vasylivka district of Zaporizhzhia region

Russian Territory –
“Already at least 4 towns have come under the control of the RDK and the Legion of Free Russia. The Kremlin does NOT control these territories. There are battles for Moore, Nekhotevka, Zibrovka, Arkhangelsk, Novaya Tavolzhanka, Shchebekino, Rzhevka, Nezhgolsk and Voznesenovka.”

NOTE - This appears to be the first statements that the RDK et al are retaining terrain and not pulling back out as with earlier raids. These forces are relatively small, about 500 men so even the success they have had so far is incredible.

**
Explosions reported at railway in Kaliningrad.

**
Electrical power object was damaged as result of drone attack in Belgorod region, - Governor

OUTLOOK –
The Russian blogosphere is announcing any Ukrainian attack to be the great ‘offensive’. And with it stories on how they have destroyed the attacks. What is reality at this stage?

Ukraine has issued a public call for OPSEC - so as not to tip off the russians of their true intentions

1) I expect a large number of smaller attacks mixed in with reconnaissance in force actions to probe Russian lines gauging weakness/strengths, response times, artillery support etc. These are not the main offensive, but means it is soon in coming.
2) June 17th is the new moon. Under US doctrine that is the most likely period for US operations to start because we have such a superiority in night vision capabilities. Not sure how capable Ukraine’s capabilities are. The modern armor they have received have superior night vision capabilities so around this date the assault may begin in earnest.
3. Keeping the Russians jumpy prior to the assault works to wear them out and cause problems sorting out real from over stated attack claims.

My forecast is that the actual kick off of the offensive is within day given the indicators I’ve noted today and in the past. Weather is the driver and the winds are to the back of Ukraine.

Europe / NATO General –

Sweden has met all the requirements of Turkey and has the right to join NATO, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said after talks with Turkish President Erdogan.

OBSERVATION - This is being taken to mean that Turkey has dropped their rejection of Sweden’s entry based on the Kurd situation.

Economy –

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said his bank is now projecting a mild recession starting in the first quarter of 2024.

OBSERVATION - BoA pushing hopium? After how last year ended, I am surprised that we are this far into 2023 without the full expression of the recession. Many economists had predicted it to be in effect by now.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

The social welfare class in America continues to see illegals usurp their priority to govt goods and services, increasing tensions between them.

Antifa has turned out to support some gay/transgender events, but in most cases have found themselves to be outnumbered by the other side.

Protest activity is still present in the Atlanta area over the new law enforcement training facility. Group “Stop Cop City” having continual protests and more reports of booby traps in public areas surrounding the facility.

POLITICAL FRONT –

(fox) House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer said Monday he will begin the process of holding FBI Director Christopher Wray in contempt of Congress, despite viewing and being briefed by bureau officials on the subpoenaed document that alleges President Joe Biden was involved in a criminal bribery scheme.

The FBI brought the document in question – an FBI-generated FD-1023 form that allegedly describes a $5 million criminal scheme involving then-Vice President Joe Biden and a foreign national relating to the exchange of money for policy decisions – to Capitol Hill on Monday for Comer, R-Ky., and ranking member Jamie Raskin, D-Md., to review in a secure SCIF (sensitive compartmented information facility), resulting from a back-and-forth between committee Republicans and the bureau over whether it was in compliance of his subpoena. The FBI initially offered to allow Comer to review the document at FBI headquarters, but amid Comer’s threats to hold Wray in contempt of Congress, the bureau offered additional accommodations to bring the physical document to Capitol Hill.

Despite the accommodation, Comer said Monday that the FBI is still not in compliance with the subpoena to turn over the physical document to the committee.

“At the briefing, the FBI again refused to hand over the unclassified record to the custody of the House Oversight Committee,” Comer said in a statement. “And we will now initiate contempt of Congress hearings this Thursday.”

OBSERVATION - Reviewing an UNCLASSIFIED document in a SCIF is extreme. Some FBI claims the higher security is necessary to protect the document as it is reportedly involved in with an investigation into Biden. Either case, congress is well within its rights to press contempt of congress charges against Wray.

Illegal Immigration –

A couple dozen illegals were dropped off in Sacramento CA and it causes newscum to go into a frothing conniption.

The great ‘flood’ of illegals still has’t materialized, although illegal entry has increased over past rates.

North/South Korea –

The influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed on Sunday to push for a second attempt to launch a spy satellite as she lambasted a U.N. Security Council meeting over the North’s first, failed launch.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 6, 2023

Russia is on a defensive footing in Ukraine with some attempts at preemptive assaults in the east. In the face of increased Ukrainian probing attacks, Russia has yielded some large amounts of terrain.

********

The Russian Ministry of Defense announced a major exercise in the Pacific Fleet starting on June 5th, just weeks after a major snap exercise. From June 5th to the 20th, they will conduct an exercise involving 60 combatant and auxiliary ships, 35 naval aviation aircraft, and more than 11,000 troops.

OBSERVATION - Could be a do over for commanders following the recent snap alert/deployments.

RUMINT-
The Russian MoD says that Ukraine began a large-scale offensive in the South Donetsk direction yesterday. Russia claims to have destroyed dozens of tanks and APCs along with killing thousands of Ukrainian troops.
NOTE - Russian MoD reports like this have always been way, way overblown, so I wouldn’t give it much credibility.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs in the 70’s and 80’s. predominantly dry throughout the forecast period.

RUMINT –
Remember, at this stage of the fight, much of what is being reported by either side is exaggerated or false reports. Pro - and Con- of any Ukrainian action should be viewed as a battle in the information sphere (propaganda) and that it shouldn’t be held as valid information. Once the offensive kicks off, much more verifiable information will become available.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
A number of reports out there that the Ukrainian offensive has begun. See OUTLOOK below on what this is based on.

However, the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Dam and Power Plant in Kherson Oblast, has taken over reporting overnight. It appears that Russian forces (who controlled the dam) set off explosives at the power plant and the eastern half of the spillway, causing a breach in the dam and releasing a massive flood down stream. Photos show 300+ meters of the dam taken out. Russia denies the allegation and blames Ukraine.

Kakhovka HPP is the sixth (lower and last) stage of the cascade of Dnieper hydroelectric power plants, located five kilometers from the city of Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region. The loss of the Kakhovka water reservoir will create enormous challenge for the upstream Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar as waters flowing now down the river were used to cool down the reactors

However, destroying the dam is a two edged sword as Crimean Canal, long disputed water supply to Crimea, is now lost with the dam. Flood mapping indicates that most of the severe flooding impact will be on the left bank of the river, causing much of the Russian defensive positions on the east bank of the Dniper River are also being flooded.

Before destroying the Kakhovka dam today, the Russians raised the water level to a record-high 17.5 meters by keeping the gates closed. (1.5 m higher than normal levels in the 16 meter range). FYI water level stages are based on elevation above sea level. The purpose would be to make the flooding as large as possible in order to stop the Ukrainian Army from conducting a counteroffensive in the area.

This is not the first time Russia has done something like this in war. On August 18, 1941, the Russians used 20 tons of explosives to blow up the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station dam, trying to hinder a German offensive. That action cost the lives of tens of thousands of Ukrainians.

Final note on the loss of Kakhovka dam, flooding assessments were conducted/reported after the Russian explosion from the west side of the Dniper River. There was some rumblings at that time Russia may do something like this. Ongoing flooding is matching computer projected impacts. Those impacts show it was a very dumb thing for Russia to do and as tied up / lost a substantial amount of forces trapped by those same flood waters.

Many around the globe are decrying this act as a war crime. Many Ukrainians in occupied Kherson will die. Russian soldiers in the flood zone will likely suffer the same fate.

In other overnight news, Ukrainian air defense shot down 35 of 35 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles, launched by Russia overnight. This is the 5th consecutive day of such attacks.

Donetsk Front ——
Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar says Ukrainian troops have made significant advances north and south of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, on 5 June.

Crimean front ———
Russian base was hit in Novooleksiivka of Kherson region this morning

OUTLOOK –
While the Russian blogsphere is going crazy with every Ukrainian attack being “the” offensive, it is just a sign of how jittery the Russians are. What is likely happening are light mech/motorized units conducting reconnaissance in force, feints, rear area activities and other actions aimed at preparing a larger movement for success. The actual offensive is close, within days, based on these actions.

The Kakhovka dam disaster will force the Ukrainian govt to divert some of its attention to the disaster but is unlikely to impact the offensive, in fact may help motivate Ukrainian soldiers even more.. As most of the destruction is on the Russian side the river, there is little Ukraine can do to affect disaster relief. Russia has been very paranoid about Ukrainian amphibious assaults. Ukraine however doesn’t have the assets to force such an operation, thus with the dam intact that Russian flank was secure. The threat the dam held was as a crossing point for Ukrainian units.

Anyway, the breach of the dam was deliberate, but may turn and bit the Russian forces with large personnel and equipment losses.

Overwhelming news surrounding the dam disaster may actually assist Ukraine from an OPSEC level - diverting attention from their maneuvering in preparation for the offensive.

Belarus -

There are still no signs of preparations for a military operation against Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.

Pakistan –

: Former Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan is seen as the front runner in upcoming (sometime in late 2023) national elections. Khan wants to make the military subordinate to the elected government and keep it that way. The Pakistan military considers this unacceptable.

Khan was removed from power on corruption charges over a year ago and has since lead substantial grass roots protests against the current govt. Those protests nearly started a civil war.

OBSERVATION - As a nuclear power, great concern continues over those nukes getting into the wrong hands.

Iran –

The IRGC is deploying artillery and other materiel to Iran’s northwest border with Iraq. This action suggest to some that the IRGC may engage in a short-term military conflict to confront perceived Israeli threats from Iraqi Kurdistan.

OBSERVATION - The nature of these ‘threats’ may actually be kurdish opposition to Iranian rule. Slapping the term “israeli” is just a cover excuse. Last year’s protests were the largest and strongest in Iranian regions with a high Kurdish component and Iran accused Iraq of sheltering dissident leaders in Iraq.

Mexico -

Recent elections in Mexico has seen the leftist Morena party, winning the governorship of the state of Mexico, which surrounds Mexico City. Morena now holds 21 out of 32 state governorships as the leftist party has come to dominate Mexican politics.

OBSERVATION - A leftist Mexican govt is seen as a greater threat as it would facilitate illegal passage into the US. With much of Central and South America moving left as well, it is a further sign that US influence is waning and that Chinese influence is on the ascendency.

Economy –

Deutsche Bank analysts say they expect the U.S. recession to begin in the fourth quarter of this year. They forecast a 1.25% drop in GDP over three quarters, which would be milder than the average recession.

Meanwhile - The World Bank is scheduled to release a report Tuesday warning that the global economy is slowing dramatically as higher interest rates take a toll on both advanced and developing economies. Overall, global growth is projected to slump to an anemic 2.1 percent annual rate this year, down from 3.1 percent in 2022, and will remain “frail” through next year, according to the bank’s latest forecast.

Investors now are focused on how much more work the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank must do to stem inflation, which has declined from last year’s highs but remains elevated.
Fed officials have signaled they may pause at next week’s meeting after lifting their benchmark lending rate over the past 14 months at the fastest pace in four decades. European policymakers are expected to increase the euro zone’s key rate by a quarter percentage point when they meet next week.

The world’s economies have interwoven together over years, to the point where if something happens to one country, it splashes over to other parts of the globe. Is the Fed’s economic model robust enough to factor in the on-edge domestic and corporate building busts on going? How well does it factor an economy still rebuilding form the wuhan plandemic shutdowns, etc. I guess we’ll see as this summer turns into fall.

**
Potential strike looms for UPS in the July timeframe. The 24 million packages UPS ships on an average day amounts to about a quarter of all U.S. parcel volume, according to the global shipping and logistics firm Pitney Bowes, or as UPS puts it, the equivalent of about 6% of nation’s gross domestic product.

OBSERVATION - In short, a potential new supply chain blockage that would take months to sort out at the end of the strike.

CW2 / Domestic violence -

The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC), an organization that frequently lists mainstream conservatives alongside hate groups like the Ku Klux Klan, has placed Moms for Liberty and other parental rights group on its “hate map” for being “antigovernment extremist groups.”

Florida-based Moms for Liberty was added to SPLC’s hate map along with 11 other parental rights groups, including several Virginia-based groups, according to the organization’s annual 2022 Year in Hate and Extremism report.
The inclusion of these 12 parental rights groups brings the SPLC’s total number of hate and antigovernment extremist groups to 1,225 organizations. Of those, 523 were “hate groups,” and 702 were deemed “antigovernment extremist groups,” which the parental rights groups fell under.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2023/06/06/southern-poverty-law-center-puts-moms-for-liberty-other-parental-rights-groups-on-hate-map/

OBSERVATION - The SPLC is the touchstone source of leftists to justify their targeting of Americans. This move parallels similar by the DHS/FBI to consider similar groups/individuals to be ‘domestic terrorists’. Thus when the big govt crackdown occurs they have a list justifying the mass arrests. This is all part of ‘battlefield preparation’ for the coming tyranny of the US govt.

**
Armenian-American men fought against Antifa & far-left protesters outside the Glendale (CA) school board meeting yesterday. Immigrant families have been furious that elementary schools are doing pride events. Antifa have gathered to oppose the parents.

OBSERVATION - This is the second encounter between the Armenians and Antifa - and both times the Armenians handed Antifa their arses.

Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The US Space Force is set to launch a constellation of satellites this summer to track Chinese or Russian space vehicles that can potentially disable or damage orbiting objects, the latest step in the burgeoning extra-terrestrial contest between superpowers.

Dubbed “Silent Barker,” the network would be the first of its kind to complement ground-based sensors and low-earth orbit satellites, according to the Space Force and analysts. The satellites will be placed about 22,000 miles (35,400 kilometers) above the Earth and at the same speed it rotates, known as geosynchronous orbit.

“This capability enables indications and warnings of threats” against high-value US systems and will “provide capabilities to search, detect, and track objects from space for timely threat detection,” the Space Force, which is developing the satellites with the National Reconnaissance Office, said in a statement.

**
Germany is set to host NATO’s largest air force deployment over Europe in the alliance’s history, officials said on Wednesday.
The Air Defender 23 exercise is scheduled to start on Monday. It will involve 10,000 participants and 250 aircraft from 25 countries.
The drills are designed to simulate a response to an attack on a NATO member country.

The US will send 100 aircraft and 2,000 personnel to take part in the exercise.

OBSERVATION - Hard not to see this exercise in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Illegal Immigration –

On Monday, Democrat New York City Mayor Eric Adams proposed the idea of paying New Yorkers to house migrants in their private residences as the city continues to find homes for thousands of asylum seekers. Adams acknowledged that there would need to be a workaround for the state’s “30 day rule,” in order for his plan to work. The rule requires a guest to be “living in a residence for 30 days before they can legally become a tenant,” after which it can be much harder to evict a person.

OBSERVATION - Some see part of this vision to include a lottery system to mandate which private residences would be forced to house illegals. I think there are enough red flags here to see how this will degenerate into domestic chaos.

Russia -

WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 6, 2023

********

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs in the 70’s and 80’s. predominantly dry throughout the forecast period.

RUMINT –
Pending validation - horrific if true
Ukrainian troops witnessed Russian soldiers being swept up in flood waters and fleeing the east bank of the Dnipro River after the collapse of the Nova Khakovka dam. Many Russian troops were killed or wounded in the chaos, an officer in Ukraine’s armed forces says - CNN

Ukrainian journalist from Nova Kakhovka Oleg Baturin said that inside basements of captured police offices in the city were Ukrainian kidnapped civilians.
He is not sure Russians evacuated them from there.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Areas downstream of Kakhovka are a mess and will continue to be for many, many years. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has said hundreds of thousands of people have been left without drinking water and tens of thousands are still stranded by floodwaters - after the Kakhovka dam in the Russian-occupied town of Nova Kakhovka was breached on Tuesday morning. With rising water levels the Russian military is reportedly not allowing civilian population to evacuate flooded areas. And Russia continues to shell areas of Kherson- reducing the ability to rescue citizens on the north bank of the Dniper River.

Meanwhile - rumblings about the Ukraine offensive continue, but with somewhat less intensity of recent days. Continued Ukraine probes and feints on the LOC and deep strikes continue to make Russia jumpy.

Kharkiv Front -
Most of the southern Russian pincer around Bakhmut has been captured by Ukraine forces.

Donetsk Front ——
Explosions reported in Melitopol.

Russian forces continued to try to push westward along highway H-15, west of Donetsk.

Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Yakymivsyky district: In the area of Peremozhne and Annovka villages, the occupying forces blew up chain of ponds, having previously filled them with water to the maximum. The road to Kherson, fields with plantations are completely flooded

Crimean front ———
Head of occupation authorities of Crimea says Crimea has enough water reserves, so destruction of Kakhovka dam is not critical.
NOTE - Crimea as gone for years without this supply, but i will impact life in Crimea due water restrictions.

OUTLOOK –
The flooding caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam continue to dominate news out of Ukraine - combined with strong OPSEC keeps the exact nature of Ukraine’s plans pretty well obscured from public view. I expect these probing attack/reconnaissance in force operations for a few more days and then the big one hits. These attacks a similar to moves a wrestler makes, selectively pushing his opponent then suddenly pulling when the opponent is expecting a push.

Iran –

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) unveiled the “Fattah,” the regime’s first hypersonic missile, on Tuesday morning, Iranian state media announced. According to Iranian media, the Fattah hypersonic missile has a range of 1,400 kilometers and hits speeds of Mach 13-15. The reports claimed that the missile is able to bypass and destroy air defense systems.

OBSERVATION - The thing to note here is the claim of maneuverability. All ballistic missiles are in essence “hypersonic”. This development - should it go into deployment mode, may force Israel to strike the Iranian nuclear program sooner rather than later.

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