Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
EU has granted the Netherlands the authority to pay farmers 120% of the value of their farms to forever put them out of business. Part of this is NEVER allowing them to resume farming anywhere. This confiscation of farms may find a rough road given that pro-farm parties in the parliament, voted in from backlash to the GGR/WEF driven agenda on climate change, responds. Could be seeing a power struggle soon.
Economy –
Labor productivity fell during the first quarter this year while labor costs rose, driven by increased payroll costs. Higher labor costs will likely will encourage the Federal Reserve to continue with its policy of hiking interest rates. Faster wage gains pose a problem for the Fed.
**
The number of jobs created in each month of 2023 has been revised down in subsequent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports, making the current month’s growth look better in comparison.
On Friday, the BLS reported that 253,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were created last month. But, April’s job growth would’ve been only 182,000 if the BLS hadn’t revised March’s total down by 71,000, from 236,000 to 165,000.
Friday’s report on April employment also revised February’s job growth downward 78,000 jobs, from 326,000 to 248,000.
OBSERVATION – Ever since Clinton IIRC, the jobs numbers have gotten extremely cooked to weed out unfavorable factors as well as installing bogus growth numbers – both factors that eventually come back into play under these ‘revisions’ – which no one pays attention to. These voodoo numbers don’t reflect reality, and reality is hard to pin down now a days because of the flood of manipulated numbers.
CW2/Domestic violence –
The push to make Jordan Neely the 2023 verson of Floyd is just not gaining traction. Deep pocket supporters of BLM just aren’t willing to take the bait in a self defense issue.
Wuhan Plandemic -
A Statement from the White House has confirmed that Dr. Rochelle Walensky, Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is stepping down from her position. The Associated Press reports that Walensky submitted her resignation on Friday citing the waning of the COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity for her to transition out of the high-profile role.
According to The AP report, Walensky’s last day at the CDC will be June 30th, CDC officials said. An interim director of the massive government agency has yet to be named. Reportedly Walensky sent a letter of resignation to President Joe Biden and subsequently announced her decision at a CDC Staff meeting.
OBSERVATION – Who knows why she’s bailing, but rest assured there will be another fool to follow her in the job.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Democrats are tripling down on their efforts to delegitimize the USSC and on Justice Thomas. The biden regime has threatened to pull their funding for security.
The J6 Proud Boys trials has convicted all on sedition. One juror said they based their decision on what was NOT presented as evidence saying its removal must have been even more damning. Conviction based on no presented evidence (speculation) versus what was presented (which is the only thing allowed to be evaluated).
Debt ceiling approaching and biden is doubling down on his refusals to come to the table. MSM is in hyperdrive to present the appearance that the republicans are doing nothing when they are the ones doing nothing.
China –
U.S. Special Operations Command (USASOC) announced on Saturday that it conducted its first simulated defense of Taiwan against a Chinese invasion.
Military.com reported the annual USASOC capabilities exercise (CAPEX), a comprehensive simulation of a “potential real-world Special Operations Forces mission.”
This year it was a simulation of American forces being inserted into Taiwan’s capital city of Taipei by helicopter to hold off a Chinese invasion force, conducted with concrete mock-ups at Fort Bragg, North Carolina:
OBSERVATION – A squad-level exercise to train the SOF on what they could expect as reinforcing resistance in a besieged Taiwan.
**
The Biden administration is preparing a $500 million weapons package for Taiwan, using a fast-track authority that it has relied on to speed arms to Ukraine, people familiar with the matter said.
The package will involve sending existing stockpiles of US weapons or support equipment to Taiwan under what’s known as a Presidential Drawdown Authority, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations. The equipment to be in the package wasn’t immediately known.
OBSERVATION – This additional drawdown of our munitions stockpile will leave us even more exposed in the event the US does get drawn into a shooting war. Our manufacturing capabilities are now several years behind in replacing that sent to Ukraine, and this will only make matters worse.
Illegal Immigration –
The U.S. will finalize by May 11 a new regulation that will deny asylum to many migrants caught crossing the U.S.-Mexico border illegally, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said on Friday.
Under the new regulation, migrants will be presumed ineligible for asylum if they passed through another country en route to the U.S. without seeking protection or if they failed to use other legal pathways to the United States.
OBSERVATION – I seriously doubt that the biden regime will enforce this - as it is nothing short of eyewash.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarly Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukranian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones sheo evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
The representatives of Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN have not been able to reach an agreement on the continuation of Ukrainian grain exports from Black Sea ports.
Chechen Kadyrov announced that in the event of the departure of Wagner PMC from Bakhmut, he will send Akhmat fighters there.
NOTE – It has been a long time since this element has stuck their faces up and said much of anything.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting levels at Bakhmut has picked up following the overnight incindary bomb attack over most of the western half of the city not controlled by Russia. Reportedly this morning Russians launched an assault on a portion of the area containing a large numbers of relatively damaged apartments and managed to seize at least one, where Russians reported congregated into in order to create a fortress. Unknown to them, Ukraine has pre mined the building and brought it down upon the sizeable number of Russians inside.
The Ukrainian military has brushed aside claims by the head of Russia’s Wagner mercenary force that he will withdraw his fighters from the battle for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, saying the mercenaries were holding firm and receiving reinforcements.
Ukraine’s military said on Friday that Wagner fighters were reinforcing positions in Bakhmut with the likely intention to try and seize the destroyed city before Russia marks the Soviet Union’s victory in World War II on May 9.
“We are now seeing them pulling (fighters) from the entire offensive line where the Wagner fighters were, they are pulling (them) to the Bakhmut direction,” Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said on Ukrainian television.
NOTE – Prigozhin’s threat to withdraw from Bakhmut could have been two sided. One was to push for more resources and the second to mislead Ukranian forces.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka and areas west of Donetsk continue at reduced levels.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Russian occupation authorities announced the forced removal of 70,000 civilians in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast to areas deeper in the Russian-occupied rear under the guise of evacuations.
Russian Territory –
Blast hit a vehicle with Russian propagandist Zahar Prilepin, badly wounding him, killing a driver in Bor town of Nizhniy Novgorod region of Russia
OUTLOOK –
OSINT analysts are beginning to note that Russia is in the process of pulling its forces back from offensive to defensive minded operations. Ukrainian forces are being reported to be taking advantage of this by launching limited counter attacks to improve their tactical positions.
This has to be on the front of the mind of Russian planners as they review their Bahkmut tactical situation. Were Wagner to honor its threat to begin to pull out on May 10, the Russian regular army would be forced into a complicated handover of positions at which time Ukraine could launch a counter attack.
Comfirmation now from Ukraine that a Patriot missile shot down a hypersonic Kh-47 Kinzhal missile over Kyiv on 4th May over Kyiv. As I pointed out when Russia started to use this weapon that it wasn’t a ‘true’ hypersonic in that it was just a surface launched missile modified to launch from a Su-31 and that the gain in speed and capabilities received were only due to that. Lack of hypersonic maneuverability in these missiles make them easier to target than what I call ‘true’ hypersonic weapons.
Russia has been using a lot of GPS jammers in an effort to protect from HIMARS attacks and now in Moscow to protect from other drone attacks. The US military has been working counter measures to maintain the weapon’s causing some estimate this CEP expands to somewhere in the neighborhood of 21 meters. Still very lethal, but debgraded. This may be in part why Russian EW assets are increasingly being targeted.
Russian sources are very jumpy whenever Ukrainian forces launch an attack – shouting ‘offensive’ Many of these actions are parts of reconnaissance efforts to probe the Russian defenses and gain better tactical positions from which to eventually launch an offensive from.
Black Swans
NOAA is estimating an 80% probability of a full blown El Nino being in effect this July. They are working to estimate what impacts will hit just where, but his has been made difficult due to the residual weather from the unprecedented La Nina of the past three years.
Quiet weekend news wise. Doesn’t imply that next week will follow suit.
WEF adherent now King Charles III was officially crowned yesterday.
Economy –
Crude oil inventories have fallen below the five-year average for the first time this year. Last week, implied gasoline demand rose by 992 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) w/w to a 15-month high of 9.511mb/d, taking the month-to-date y/y increase. Despite this positive inventory data, WTI prices have declined from $83.26 per barrel on April 12 to $68.85 on May 3 while Brent prices have declined from $87.33 to $72.54 per barrel over the timeframe.
Normally, U.S. inventories and oil prices have a strong inverse relationship, with falling inventories pushing prices higher while rising inventories have the opposite effect.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-Oil-Prices-Are-Plunging-Despite-Falling-Inventories.html
OBSERVATION – However, at least in my corner of the Redoubt, gas and diesel prices have continued to climb. Some oil analysts note that these “tend to be temporary and come at times when prices are moved primarily by other oil market fundamentals, expectations, broader asset markets and financial flows.” In otherwords, the market will be correcting itself to reflect higher per barrel prices soon equating to higher prices at the gas pumps.
Biden / Harris watch –
Laughable – harris put in charge of the regime’s AI initiative.
CW2/Domestic violence –
The push to make Jordan Neely a new saint progressed to leftists disrupting NYC subway service on Saturday. Protestors blocked trains and assaulted police protesting his death.
OBSERVATION – This really doesn’t help their cause. Feed back I’ve read indicates your average New Yorker has little sympathy for Neely because violence on the subways is far too common and people are getting fed up. Ravid leftists like AOC continue to call it murder and vigilantism – both are non applicable terms and your average subway rider sees that difference too.
ADDITIONALLY – The marine corps doxed the individual who had Neely in the choke hold. The new woke Marines – sticking a knife in the back of a fellow Marine – show just how far the leadership of the military, and the Marines in particular – has fallen.
**
A gunman shot and killed eight people and wounded at least seven others at a busy mall north of Dallas on Saturday, police said.
The gunman, whom authorities said they think acted alone and whose motive was not yet known, was killed by a police officer after he began firing outside of the Allen Premium Outlets mall at 3:36 p.m. local time in Allen, Texas, the city’s police chief Brian Harvey said at a press conference.
The gunman was Hispanic and reportedly had gang related tatoos on his hands. This tatoo, a copy of the City of Dallas logo is one of many utilized by members of the Dallas Tango Blast prision gang. He reportedly lived in Dallas with his parents. They didn’t speak English. Neighbors had to have to translate.
OBSERVATION – Right in line with increasing calls for gun control and a semi-auto rifle ban by democrats, the number of shootings like this are on the rise. Could be conformation bias, but at this stage of the conspiracy theory cycle my thoughts go to triggered responses by the regime to try to mold public perception into a favorable position to impose these gun bans. No info on this dead thug’s immigration status or if he obtained the AR-15 legally (doubtful because to become a Tango Blast – you have to go thru initiation rites in prison – and most likely a felony record, making gun ownership illegal.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Countdown continues for a June 1 deadline for the national debt. Finally McConnell is on record stating that the bill must include significant cuts to govt spending.
Illegal Immigration –
May 11 is on track to be the most massive day of illegals crossing the border ever.
Meanwhile, in Panama, bus convoys are taking immigrants northward into Mexico. Reports are that they are being funded in part by the US govt or US NGOs.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
Prigozhin, in a new statement, said an agreement has been reached to supply more ammunition to Wagner forces. A withdrawal from Bakhmut therefore seems out of the question.
NOTE – Political ploy to leverage more resources away from regular Russian forces. However, in this instance, Prigozhin backed his threat up with a decrease in attacks. This may well backfire since that gave Ukrainian defenders a break to better prepare the defensive positions for new attacks.
Logistics –
Wildfires reached gunpowder warehouses in Pervovamyskiy town of Sverdlovsk region of Russia. 11 warehouses have been reportedly engulfed in flames.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting levels at Bakhmut have picked up following a second overnight incendiary bomb attack over most of the western half of the city not controlled by Russia. Prigozhin reportedly has gotten the ammo he has demanded, so Wagner pullout unlikely at this time.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka and areas west of Donetsk continues at reduced levels.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
About 10 Ukranian drones attacked the Sevastopol region, with Russia claiming all were shot down, though there were reports of larger explosions at several areas along the coast.
OUTLOOK –
Russia to continue to pressure Ukranian defenses at Bakhmut, but no breakout is anticipated. Again, indicators suggest that Russia is trying to wrap up operations there so resources can be allocated to defense against the anticipated Ukrainian offensive.
The knife fight between Wagner and the MoD may have gotten swayed in Wagner’s favor by the rapid response from Chechen fighters alledged willingness to step in an replace it at Bakhmut. The MoD may have saw their combined propaganda and sway with putin a threat and decided to provide minimal support. This will not be the last time Prigozhin will whine about lack of support.
Fears of the Ukraine offensive have triggered Russian supporters in the south to start fleeing to Crimea and to Russia. The Kerch Bridge as been closed off an on due to suspected threats. Roads are reported to be clogged with those fleeing - likely interfering with Russian logistical activity.
Increased Ukraine drone attacks are something new. Uncomplicated, they serve to freeze Russian operations out of Crimea and cause them to divert ADA assest from the front to protect these deeper rear areas. With a sudden influx of Mig -29s from NATO supporters, Ukraine has the potential to locally gain air superiority for their offensive.
Europe / NATO General –
Ministry of National Defense of Romania - On Friday May 5th, a L410 TURBOLET aircraft belonging to the Polish Border Guard, was intercepted at 60 km East from Romania’s airspace, by a Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter plane, while performing with Romanian Border Police a Frontex routine patrol mission
OBSERVATION – Not an uncommon action by Russia. However, they are toeing the line due to the proximity to Romanian air space in this intercept.
Israel –
More pro- and con – judicial reform protests contining.
Iran –
Thermobaric warheads have been integrated into Iranian missiles, especially models that Hezbollah have. The effort to get them to Hezbollah is increasing.
Misc of Note –
Researchers who recently published their work in the Journal of Sexual Medicine examined the prevalence and efficacy of “gender-affirming” mental healthcare provided to trans-identified children.
Here were the results:
3,754 TGD adolescents and 6,603 cisgender siblings were included. TGD adolescents were more likely to have a mental health diagnosis (OR 5.45, 95% CI [4.77-6.24]), use more mental healthcare services (IRR 2.22; 95% CI [2.00-2.46]), and be prescribed more psychotropic medications (IRR = 2.57; 95% CI [2.36-2.80]) compared to siblings.
More diagnoses, more therapy, more drugs.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34247956/
OBSERVATION – Noting this aspect of the transgender craziness here as something we need to know. This so called reassignment surgery and chemical treatment doesn’t improve the mental situation – it makes it worse.
If the killer had been MAGA everything about him would have been leaked to the Washington Post before blood on the shopping center's floor was dry... and EVERY liberal Sunday news show would have opened with the story.
Factors concerning the weakness and potential crash of smaller banks only to be snatched up by the WEF compliant big banks float on the edge of conspiracy theory. But the results so far are the same. Banks like JP Morgan are expanding while the FED and the treasury dept take the hit for the losses at those banks. Makes unification under a one world easier.
**
World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus announced the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency the organization declared on 30 January 2020.
OBSERVATION - Wuhan is no longer a useful tool as the majority of the globe has cast aside their associated health emergencies. However, it did serve a useful purpose in “creating” a crisis that the WHO, as a global entity, could use to bring much of the world under its control. This effort to now expand the WHO’s power is expected to grow as efforts to place all signatory nations under its direct control for the next ‘health emergency’. By the nature of the wording as well as how leftist ‘health’ organizations use the terms – this could include the health emergency of gun violence.
Economy –
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen continued to warn that a failure to raise the US’s debt ceiling could have dire consequences.
“It’s Congress’s job to do this. If they fail to do it, we will have an economic and financial catastrophe that will be of our own making,” she said.
In an interview with ABC News on Sunday Yellen said debt ceiling negotiations should not take place “with a gun to the head of the American people.”
OBSERVATION – Useful idiot, the gist is that the republicans are not doing anything – which by leftist definition means they are not folding to the regime’s demands.
Last month the House of Representatives passed a bill to raise the ceiling, currently roughly equal to 120% of the country’s annual economic output, but included in the bill sweeping spending cuts over the next decade.
President Biden wants Congress to agree to raise the debt ceiling, with no conditions. President Biden has said he will not negotiate over the increase and will discuss budget cuts after the issue is resolved.
Biden is the one holding the gun to the head of the American people.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Media claiming that the 33 year-old mall shooter Mauricio Garcia is a neo-Nazi white supremacist. He reportedly shared white supremacist content on social media and wore a patch saying RWDS, which police believe stands for “Right Wing Death Squad”
Shooter was removed from Army over ‘mental health concerns,’ suspected of ‘right-wing extremist ideology’.
OBSERVATION – A Hispanic gang banger a “white supremacist”? Inquiring minds want to know the real story.
**
Hispanic man deliberately drove into a crowd of migrants(?) killing at least 7, 10 injured. Details on the driver pending, but hospital photo shows him all tatted up and potentially MS-13 related(?).
**
The rest of the video from the incident in the subway shows that Jordan Neely was not dead when Daniel Penny let go of him. The marine even put him in a recovery position. And riders in the car thanking him and the others who responded for their actions.
OBSERVATION - This throws the entire narrative that Penny “murdered” or “lynched” Neely into doubt. This is also why among New Yorkers this isn’t gathering more traction – they face this kind of violence daily on the subway.
Wuhan Plandemic -
Chelsea Clinton — via the Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI) — along with the World Health Organization (WHO), UNICEF and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation launched an initiative called “The Big Catch-up.”
“The Big Catch-up” will last 18 months and, according to Clinton, aims to become “the largest childhood immunization effort ever,” Fortune reported. Clinton, who serves as vice chair of CHAI, last week presented the initiative at Fortune’s Brainstorm Health Conference in Marina del Rey, California.
One day earlier, under the auspices of World Immunization Week, the WHO introduced “The Big Catch-up,” describing it as a “targeted global effort to boost vaccination among children following declines driven by the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Clinton further has indicated that children will be forced to take the jab regardless of what their parents say.
OBSERVATION - Ah yes, the medical tyranny continues even though the WHO has declared an end to the emergency. It is not about the disease, it is all about power. IMHO there is also an ulterior motive – there is something in the jab that is designed not to be good for humanity, thus the push for all to be jabbed.
Illegal Immigration –
Drown video shown on Fox shows an enormous line of hundreds of migrants who just crossed illegally into Brownsville, TX yesterday. A large majority of them are single adults of military age with very few women and no children.
OBSERVATION – The tsunami is building. If it hits with the force some are fearing, there could be violence.
**
NYC Mayor Adams announcing that he is shipping illegals out of the city to the suburbs as he claims he doesn’t have the resources to handle them.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
Russia is planning for a much smaller May 9th celebration of its victory over Germany. Observers note that fewer combat vehicles and more cargo trucks being used.
RUMINT-
Wagner’s Prigozhin & Chechen leader Kadyrov may have compelled Russia’s theater commander in Ukraine, Gen Gerasimov, to resume artillery ammunition distribution to Wagner forces in Bakhmut despite the latter’s desired de-prioritization of that effort.
Such actions would indicate that Gerasimov and possibly Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu lack the ability to command Prigozhin and Kadyrov as subordinates but must instead negotiate with them as peers.
Gerasimov’s apparent need to negotiate with subordinate commanders and those commanders’ ability to force his hand suggests that chain of command problems are significantly impacting the Russian military’s ability to conduct coherent theater-wide operations.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Forces report that they shot down 100%, of the 35 of the Shahed Kamikaze Drones that Russia fired at Ukraine overnight. Russian Tu-22M3 bombers also launched 8 missiles at Odesa (presumably, Kh-22).
Fighting levels at Bakhmut have intensified further overnight now that Wagner apparently has gotten the ammo it demanded. It reportedly made some gains in the city. Second factor in the increased tempo is the overarching desire to capture the city by May 9th (Russian Victory Day over Nazi Germany). Additional fighting increased on the southern edge of salient as Russian forces attempt to cut off the H-32 highway into town.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka and areas west of Donetsk continues at reduced levels.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
OUTLOOK –
Russia to continue to pressure Ukranian defenses at Bakhmut, and we may see intensifying attacks as Russia, and in particular Wagner, intensify their attacks in an effort to secure the town by at least May 10th (as directed). For Wagner, it would be another bargaining chip in their efforts to direct the war to their political benefit and may even provide a greater platform to even dethrone putin.
This episode with Wagner may also indicate that Russia has deligated responsibilities for different sectors of the front in Ukraine to various Russian commanders while the power of the theater commander continues to wane. This will create the competition for resources that hamstrung the initial offensive when different CAAs were given different sectors and objectives. This will further hurt coordination of efforts between those commanders to respond in a timely manner to the Ukrainian drive.
Russia is also conducting more, smaller missile/drone attacks it what appears to be an effort to disrupt the Ukrainian preparations for their offensive. Russia’s OODA loop for targeting is poor, but Ukraine needs to be smart and avoid concentrating forces, equipment and munitions where they could be hit with a lucky shot.
Weather forecasts still show drying conditions thru the end of May. That is the real driver as to the earliest Ukraine can kick off its attack.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Transnistria officials calling on Russia to provide more “peace keepers”.
Syria -
The Arab League on Sunday welcomed back Syria’s government after a more than decade-long suspension, AFP reported. The pan-Arab bloc froze Syria’s membership in November 2011 over the bloody government crackdown on protesters. “Government delegations from the Syrian Arab Republic will resume their participation in Arab League meetings” starting Sunday, said a unanimous decision by the group’s foreign ministers on Sunday.
OBSERVATION – This may cause Israel to recalibrate some of its actions against Hezbollah/Iranian targets in Syria as well as complicate the Abrahamic Accords efforts to normalize relations with some Gulf states.
Factors concerning the weakness and potential crash of smaller banks only to be snatched up by the WEF compliant big banks float on the edge of conspiracy theory. But the results so far are the same. Banks like JP Morgan are expanding while the FED and the treasury dept take the hit for the losses at those banks. Makes unification under a one world easier.
**
World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus announced the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency the organization declared on 30 January 2020.
OBSERVATION - Wuhan is no longer a useful tool as the majority of the globe has cast aside their associated health emergencies. However, it did serve a useful purpose in “creating” a crisis that the WHO, as a global entity, could use to bring much of the world under its control. This effort to now expand the WHO’s power is expected to grow as efforts to place all signatory nations under its direct control for the next ‘health emergency’. By the nature of the wording as well as how leftist ‘health’ organizations use the terms – this could include the health emergency of gun violence.
Economy –
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen continued to warn that a failure to raise the US’s debt ceiling could have dire consequences.
“It’s Congress’s job to do this. If they fail to do it, we will have an economic and financial catastrophe that will be of our own making,” she said.
In an interview with ABC News on Sunday Yellen said debt ceiling negotiations should not take place “with a gun to the head of the American people.”
OBSERVATION – Useful idiot, the gist is that the republicans are not doing anything – which by leftist definition means they are not folding to the regime’s demands.
Last month the House of Representatives passed a bill to raise the ceiling, currently roughly equal to 120% of the country’s annual economic output, but included in the bill sweeping spending cuts over the next decade.
President Biden wants Congress to agree to raise the debt ceiling, with no conditions. President Biden has said he will not negotiate over the increase and will discuss budget cuts after the issue is resolved.
Biden is the one holding the gun to the head of the American people.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Media claiming that the 33 year-old mall shooter Mauricio Garcia is a neo-Nazi white supremacist. He reportedly shared white supremacist content on social media and wore a patch saying RWDS, which police believe stands for “Right Wing Death Squad”
Shooter was removed from Army over ‘mental health concerns,’ suspected of ‘right-wing extremist ideology’.
OBSERVATION – A Hispanic gang banger a “white supremacist”? Inquiring minds want to know the real story.
**
Hispanic man deliberately drove into a crowd of migrants(?) killing at least 7, 10 injured. Details on the driver pending, but hospital photo shows him all tatted up and potentially MS-13 related(?).
**
The rest of the video from the incident in the subway shows that Jordan Neely was not dead when Daniel Penny let go of him. The marine even put him in a recovery position. And riders in the car thanking him and the others who responded for their actions.
OBSERVATION - This throws the entire narrative that Penny “murdered” or “lynched” Neely into doubt. This is also why among New Yorkers this isn’t gathering more traction – they face this kind of violence daily on the subway.
Wuhan Plandemic -
Chelsea Clinton — via the Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI) — along with the World Health Organization (WHO), UNICEF and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation launched an initiative called “The Big Catch-up.”
“The Big Catch-up” will last 18 months and, according to Clinton, aims to become “the largest childhood immunization effort ever,” Fortune reported. Clinton, who serves as vice chair of CHAI, last week presented the initiative at Fortune’s Brainstorm Health Conference in Marina del Rey, California.
One day earlier, under the auspices of World Immunization Week, the WHO introduced “The Big Catch-up,” describing it as a “targeted global effort to boost vaccination among children following declines driven by the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Clinton further has indicated that children will be forced to take the jab regardless of what their parents say.
OBSERVATION - Ah yes, the medical tyranny continues even though the WHO has declared an end to the emergency. It is not about the disease, it is all about power. IMHO there is also an ulterior motive – there is something in the jab that is designed not to be good for humanity, thus the push for all to be jabbed.
Illegal Immigration –
Drown video shown on Fox shows an enormous line of hundreds of migrants who just crossed illegally into Brownsville, TX yesterday. A large majority of them are single adults of military age with very few women and no children.
OBSERVATION – The tsunami is building. If it hits with the force some are fearing, there could be violence.
**
NYC Mayor Adams announcing that he is shipping illegals out of the city to the suburbs as he claims he doesn’t have the resources to handle them.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
Russia is planning for a much smaller May 9th celebration of its victory over Germany. Observers note that fewer combat vehicles and more cargo trucks being used.
RUMINT-
Wagner’s Prigozhin & Chechen leader Kadyrov may have compelled Russia’s theater commander in Ukraine, Gen Gerasimov, to resume artillery ammunition distribution to Wagner forces in Bakhmut despite the latter’s desired de-prioritization of that effort.
Such actions would indicate that Gerasimov and possibly Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu lack the ability to command Prigozhin and Kadyrov as subordinates but must instead negotiate with them as peers.
Gerasimov’s apparent need to negotiate with subordinate commanders and those commanders’ ability to force his hand suggests that chain of command problems are significantly impacting the Russian military’s ability to conduct coherent theater-wide operations.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Forces report that they shot down 100%, of the 35 of the Shahed Kamikaze Drones that Russia fired at Ukraine overnight. Russian Tu-22M3 bombers also launched 8 missiles at Odesa (presumably, Kh-22).
Fighting levels at Bakhmut have intensified further overnight now that Wagner apparently has gotten the ammo it demanded. It reportedly made some gains in the city. Second factor in the increased tempo is the overarching desire to capture the city by May 9th (Russian Victory Day over Nazi Germany). Additional fighting increased on the southern edge of salient as Russian forces attempt to cut off the H-32 highway into town.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka and areas west of Donetsk continues at reduced levels.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
OUTLOOK –
Russia to continue to pressure Ukranian defenses at Bakhmut, and we may see intensifying attacks as Russia, and in particular Wagner, intensify their attacks in an effort to secure the town by at least May 10th (as directed). For Wagner, it would be another bargaining chip in their efforts to direct the war to their political benefit and may even provide a greater platform to even dethrone putin.
This episode with Wagner may also indicate that Russia has deligated responsibilities for different sectors of the front in Ukraine to various Russian commanders while the power of the theater commander continues to wane. This will create the competition for resources that hamstrung the initial offensive when different CAAs were given different sectors and objectives. This will further hurt coordination of efforts between those commanders to respond in a timely manner to the Ukrainian drive.
Russia is also conducting more, smaller missile/drone attacks it what appears to be an effort to disrupt the Ukrainian preparations for their offensive. Russia’s OODA loop for targeting is poor, but Ukraine needs to be smart and avoid concentrating forces, equipment and munitions where they could be hit with a lucky shot.
Weather forecasts still show drying conditions thru the end of May. That is the real driver as to the earliest Ukraine can kick off its attack.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Transnistria officials calling on Russia to provide more “peace keepers”.
Syria -
The Arab League on Sunday welcomed back Syria’s government after a more than decade-long suspension, AFP reported. The pan-Arab bloc froze Syria’s membership in November 2011 over the bloody government crackdown on protesters. “Government delegations from the Syrian Arab Republic will resume their participation in Arab League meetings” starting Sunday, said a unanimous decision by the group’s foreign ministers on Sunday.
OBSERVATION – This may cause Israel to recalibrate some of its actions against Hezbollah/Iranian targets in Syria as well as complicate the Abrahamic Accords efforts to normalize relations with some Gulf states.
Economy –
In a recent interview, Yellen admits she plans to default on the debt so she can keep spending on “clean energy.”
OBSERVATION – Priorities.
**
The U.S. Federal Reserve has revealed that 722 banks reported unrealized losses exceeding 50% of their capital at the end of the third quarter of 2022. “Rising interest rates are creating significant unrealized losses in investment securities and in some cases depressing tangible equity,” according to the Fed’s Division of Supervision and Regulation.
722 Banks Reported Unrealized Losses of More Than 50% of Capital The U.S. Federal Reserve has revealed in a board presentation by the Division of Supervision and Regulation that 722 banks reported unrealized losses exceeding 50% of their capital at the end of the third quarter of 2022. The presentation, released to the public in April, is dated Feb. 14. It highlights the impact of raising interest rates on certain banks and the Fed’s supervisory approach to address issues at these banks.
“Rising interest rates are creating significant unrealized losses in investment securities and in some cases depressing tangible equity,” the Fed presentation states. “As interest rates increase, banks with large market value losses could experience increased financial and risk management challenges.”
OBSERVATION – We haven’t seen the end of the banking crisis, as the fed continues to raise rates and the economy crumbles into a recession.
Illegal Immigration –
According to Customs and Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz, CBP made 26,382 apprehensions and had 7,399 “gotaways” in the last 72 hours. The 8,794 apprehensions per day during this 72-hour period is a jump from the average of 7,700 apprehensions per day, and the Biden administration estimates there could be 13,000 border crossings per day after Title 42 ends this week.
OBSERVATION – Will this be the spark that ignites border violence? 13 K crossings is likely an underestimate and the numbers of ‘gotaways’ will skyrocket as there are not enough border agents to handle all of this.
**
US military assigned to assist the border patrol will be doing paperwork and data entry – not actually interdicting illegals.
Texas OTOH is deploying national guard to the border to interdict illegals. This will bring a fed/state conflict to the forefront. However, TX has enacted legislation that creates a crime for illegals for being here illegally that looks to go around the fed govt supremacy on immigration control.
OBSERVATION – TX is the only border state that is Red, with CA, AZ and NM all being blue. Watch the blue states to see how hard they are being impacted once the border is fully unlocked.
North/South Korea –
SK – See Japan linking radars
Japan –
(Reuters) - Japanese and South Korean defence authorities are set to agree early next month to link their radars via a U.S. system to share real-time information on North Korea’s ballistic missiles, a person with knowledge of the matter said on Tuesday. Japan and South Korea are independently linked to the United States’ radar systems but not to each others’.
OBSERVATION – Unintended consequences. Aggressive behavior by China and NK are driving formerly antagonistic nations to set aside historical differences and uniting against a common threat.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
In Moscow, the annual Victory day parade was expected by many to be underwhelming due to the war in Ukraine. The degree that it was underwhelming to be underwhelming shocked observers. Only ONE tank paraded – a T-34 tank. Only a handful of APCs, most of the vehicles were cargo trucks. The total lack of the traditional display of Russian military might strongly indicates that damage done to the Russian military as a result of the Ukraine war.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting levels at Bakhmut remain high, with most of the fighting along the southern margin of the salient as Russian forces try to close off the H-32 highway lifeline for Ukraine.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka and areas west of Donetsk continues at reduced levels.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
OUTLOOK –
Still digesting the Russian May 9th “parade”. If anything, it undermined putin’s efforts to depict the war as being successfully fought and that Russian is a massive military power. Simply put, it was an embarrassment to putin and Russia.
With the target date of May 9th now past, the question is how much effort will continue to be made to seize Bakhmut? Wagner may still view the city as a jewel in its crown to capture, but the Russian military is increasingly viewing it as a boat anchor and a black hole that is sucking up scarce resources needed to counter a Ukrainian offensive.
Much discussion taking place over Russia’s massive entrenchments and fortification in Zaporizhizhia Oblast designed to stop the Ukrainian drive on Crimea. Many are saying they will deny Ukraine the ability to cut through the Russian front lines and achieve its goals. I think these folks are forgetting a few key principles that this war has repeatedly demonistrated.
1) The poor quality of the Russian soldier – In the retreats from northern Ukraine and the defeat in the Kharkiv offensive, they turned and ran, with few units doing any kind of effective rear guard action
The Kherson offensive was the only one where it was apparent that they staged an organize withdrawal and that only at the allowance of Ukraine, who obtained their objective with minimal loss of units and equipment.
2) Very poor Russian communications and logistics. You put in an obstacle, you have better be prepared to defend it. Poor coordination and comms between major Russian commands could permit Ukraine to split a unit boundry, freezing up both sides actions while it digs deep into rear areas.
Russia logistics rely heavily upon rail, and those lines are well within Ukraine artillery / missile range.
3) Russia is having to defend a long front. Ukraine is defending at home and can decisively target which portion of the front to strike, leaving Russia scrambling to place reserve forces (which are very limited) into blocking positions.
4) Ukraine has been very resourceful and creative in their actions against Russia. In Kharkiv the army displayed excellent combined arms operations. This displays a far better trained army than Russia has.
Time will tell.
Israel –
Overnight Israel launched what they called “Operation Shield and Arrow” – an effort to target the senior leadership of PIJ and other radical Islamic groups in Gaza and the West Bank. Three senior members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip were killed and 10 sites belonging to PIJ also hit. Israel said it had launched the operation targeting militants who posed an imminent threat to its citizens.
Israel is now expecting a heavy barrage of rockets from Gaza into southern Israel .
OBSERVATION – PIJ will likely respond, uncertain just how much support Hamas will give them. Hamas considers in many ways that PIJ is a challenge to their leadership and may just let them hang on their own rope. Hamas knows that Israel will pound them twice as hard being the defacto leadership in Gaza.
**
Hamas may be planning to “stage a coup” against the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, a Palestinian official in Ramallah warned on Monday.
The warning came amid an increase in Hamas terror activities in the West Bank and ongoing incitement by the Islamist group against the PA and its security forces.
The official further said that he does not rule out the possibility that Hamas may try to stage “another coup” in the West Bank, similar to the one it carried out in the Gaza Strip in 2007. Then, Hamas seized control of the entire Gaza Strip after killing dozens of its rivals in the ruling faction of Fatah and overthrowing the PA.
OBSERVATION - I’ve already posted on several occasions the push by Hamas to replace the PA in the West Bank region. There has been an overall trend of Islamic radicalization over the past few years, fueled and funded in part by Iran who sees the PA as weak against Israel. Goal is to place hostile Islamic agencies and operational areas in the West Bank to compliment Gaza, Lebanon and Syrian based operations.
Syria -
The Arab League on Sunday welcomed back Syria’s government after a more than decade-long suspension, AFP reported. The pan-Arab bloc froze Syria’s membership in November 2011 over the bloody government crackdown on protesters. “Government delegations from the Syrian Arab Republic will resume their participation in Arab League meetings” starting Sunday, said a unanimous decision by the group’s foreign ministers on Sunday.
OBSERVATION – This may cause Israel to recalibrate some of its actions against Hezbollah/Iranian targets in Syria as well as complicate the Abrahamic Accords efforts to normalize relations with some Gulf states.
The press needs to STOP using the language of corrupt Homeland thugs and use words that make sense. For example, "According to Customs and Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz, CBP made 26,382 apprehensions - 26,382 of these illegals were 'processed' and released into the United States."
"Apprehensions' does NOT capture the 'catch and release' reality of Biden and his goons.
p
Not including a lot of my commentary today. Lots on my plate. But for those who’ve followed, you pretty much know what it means.
Economy –
Flooding in the San Joaquin Valley from Tulare Lake has caused potentially billions of dollars in crop losses. Meanwhile, farm production is down up to 10% in some counties in the Tulare Lake basin and Central Coast of California. Processing tomatoes, leafy greens, and strawberries are expected to take a hit, and dairies have been impacted by flooding. California produces about 90% of processing tomatoes used in the U.S. and more than one-quarter of the world’s supply. (FO)
**
April’s inflation report is out - core inflation (CPI less food and energy) remains elevated at 5.5% YoY, much higher than The Fed’s target rate of 2%. US real average weekly wage growth is negative again at -1.1% YoY, negative growth for the 25th straight month.
Turns out that core inflation is higher than overall inflation. 4.9% YoY compared to core of 5.5% YoY.
OBSERVATION – Mixed bag, but forecasts for summer are not bright and too many other factors to sit back and relax. Consider the damage done to the economy just to get it to this rate, let alone what will happen if the Fed continues to push for its 2% target rate using only prime rate increases.
**
Biden says he will consider pursuing the legal standing of the use of the 14th amendment in debt ceiling situations at a later date but that it’s not suitable now.
OBSERVATION - there is evidence that there may be a limited extension of the ceiling to permit more negotiations – though biden has largely been staking out a position of no compromises. Dems are likely feeling the pressure given that the house has put forth a bill and the senate refuses to take it up.
CW2/Domestic violence –
In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee Thursday, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines for the first time mentioned the creation of the Foreign Malign Influence Center, or FMIC. “Congress put into law that we should establish a Foreign Malign Influence Center in the intelligence community; we have stood that up,” Haines said, referring to legislation passed last year. “It encompasses our election threat work, essentially looking at foreign influence and interference in elections, but it also deals with disinformation more generally.”
OBSERVATION - Mission is essentially the same as the now defunct DHS Disinformation Governance Board. Designed to silence any opinion contrary to the regime’s desired narrative.
RELATED - Through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), America First Legal (AFL) has obtained files that show that DHS’s Office of Terrorism and Violence Prevention, instead of devoting its time and attention to tracking and impeding the activities of actual terrorists, is focusing on getting you to inform for them about pro-life “suburban moms” and your “old friend from high school” who doubts the Leftist establishment line. Yes, it’s just like the Stasi and the Gestapo and the KGB, except this time, your tax dollars are paying for it.
OBSERVATION – The regime / deep state is in a way preparing for and conducting war against the citizens of the US. This is exactly the kind of intel collection the Stazi and KGB et al participated in during the Cold War era – something that you young’ins are not being taught today. History repeats and consequences will be ugly.
Wuhan Plandemic -
Biden issued an executive order yesterday lifting COVID-19 vaccination requirements for federal workers and contractors, which will take effect on Friday, 12 May. President Biden also issued a proclamation lifting vaccination requirements for international travelers entering the United States
POLITICAL FRONT –
This is such a dumpster fire I’ll only note that the chaos will get worse, not better When I have more time I’ll dissect issues, for now, follow other FR threads.
Illegal Immigration –
Thousands are already pouring into towns like El Paso and other border cities even before Title 42 expires. It will be something of a magnitude never seen before.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
Commentators continue to not how subdued the May 9th ‘celebration’ was.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s - 70s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting levels at Bakhmut remain high, however, some interesting developments on the southwestern portion of the salient. Ukraine launched a limited counter attack along the front line 3 km wide and penetrated 2.6 km deep. The 72nd brigade of the Russian Federation was defeated, the 6th and 8th companies of this brigade, military equipment were actually destroyed, as well as one of Wagner’s assault units.
Prigozhin’s report about the escape of the 72nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the Soviet Union from near Bakhmut where he stated Wagner lost 500 men securing the terrain only to lose it.
Ukraine has also executed successful limited counter attacks in other sectors.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka and areas west of Donetsk continues at reduced levels.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Russia is also continuing missile/drone attacks across Ukraine – though at very low levels.
OUTLOOK –
Bakhmut will continue to be the hot spot in the fight, but for how much longer. The Wagner demand for more ammo and support was in regards to obtaining the May 9th deadline – which is now past and no longer a leverage.
However, the destruction of the Russian 72d Bde is important as it gives us a view to what to expect during a Ukrainian offensive. The 72d was part of mobilization last year, and was designated to be an ‘elite’ unit given more training and better weapons and equipment. A Russia brigade normally has several thousand soldiers, though it is uncertain how close to that level this brigade was. I would suspect it was one of the reserve forces Russia was trying to maintain to exploit either success or counter any offensive. Many reports have had these units filling in gaps, freeing Wagner forces to concentrate on Bahkmut proper.
Videos posted by both Ukraine and Russia show Ukraine forces effectively using combined arms tactics of tanks and infantry mutually supporting each other tearing through the Russian lines and literally sending Russian soldiers running in the other direction for their lives. The collapse of this Brigade does not bode well for Russian defenses in other sectors. It shows that Ukraine combined arms is more than a match for Russian defenses. How this will apply to other sectors, and in particular the focus of the offensive is yet to be seen.
Pakistan –
Violent protests erupted across Pakistan after the arrest of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan on May 9. These protests targeted Pakistani military facilities and institutions across Pakistan. Protesters stormed the Pakistani Army’s General Headquarters in Rawalpindi and the regional parliament building for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province in Peshawar. Protesters also burned the IV Corps commander’s residence inside the military cantonment in Lahore. Protests against the Pakistani military are uncommon and represent a decline in public trust in the Pakistani military and state institutions.
Islamabad High Court declares Imran Khan’s arrest lawful, and he is already facing trial today.
OBSERVATION – Increasing instability in a nuclear power edging progressively towards Islamic radicalism. Not a good thing.
Israel –
After an uncharacteristic delay in response, Islamic groups in Gaza have unleashed over 100 rockets into Israel, and Israel has been quick to launch counter strikes. Rockets are in retaliation for the strike that took out several key PIJ leaders.
OBSERVATION - The delay was likely due to PIJ and other Islamic elements trying to relocate command centers prior to launching the rockets. Israel likely had those alternative command posts identified though. This next cycle will be vicious as Israel looks to eliminate the PIJ and fellow Islamic elements before turning towards directly confronting Iran / Hezbollah.
Turkey -
Erdogan announces 45% wage hike for 700,000 public workers five days ahead of the elections.
An unprecedented 51% of absentee ballots have been turned in for counting.
This election may become a barn burner folks.
This is the kind of stuff that happens when stupid people are put in charge...
No, it happens when evil are put in charge.
A South African official told Bloomberg News this week that a common currency would be a discussion topic during the August annual BRICS summit.
OBSERVATION – Watching the continued efforts to take the dollar out as the global reserve currency.
**
Biden administration proposed new regulations Thursday that if enacted would aggressively limit greenhouse gas emissions from power plants, the second-most harmful source of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. The move stands to force major changes in the energy sector and is likely to set up a legal battle with the energy industry.
The Environmental Protection Agency said the new standards would enable the sector to avoid up to 617 million metric tons of carbon dioxide through 2042, which officials compared to taking roughly half the 300 million cars in the U.S. off the road.
The EPA also estimates that the new rules would drastically improve air quality and public health, potentially avoiding more than 300,000 cases of asthma and 1,300 premature deaths every year by 2030.
Biden vowed early in his administration to decarbonize the power sector by 2035 and make the nation’s entire economy carbon neutral by 2050.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-administration-announces-plans-to-slash-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-power-plants/
OBSERVATION – IIRC the EPA is using the same assertion of authority that the USSC struck down earlier. But this is the method of the deep state in conjunction with the WEF, push regulations that you know will eventually be struck down, but that will take years to work thru the courts, meanwhile, you get your agenda and that is to damage the US economy.
Economy –
One area Yellen has threatened to cut off in the event of a shutdown are payments to Social Security. Please note – SS is suppose to be a separate fund – separate from the rest of the budget. Fiscal games over the years of congress ‘borrowing’ from the fund to pay for their boondoggles has left the account with nothing but IOUs. It is a threat to mobilize the retired to come to biden’s side. Transparency – I’m retired and receiving SS. I recognize this as blatant politics and typical of the regime. I’m not sure the democrats are prepared for the push back given their complete refusal to come to the table to work out an agreement.
Biden / Harris watch –
On Tuesday, Biden announced his plan to create a “rule” to ensure that U.S. airline flights run on time.
POLITICAL FRONT –
CNN is probably asking itself why they dared to interview Trump in a live townhall setting. He handed them their a$$es last night, and this in not disputed – even by the left who went apoplectic following the “shortened” interview (CNN cut its time to 70 minutes from a projected 90). AOC’s screed was one of the best bemoaning CNN failed efforts at ‘gotcha’ tactics.
Reality is it wasn’t fair for Trump to engage in a battle of wits against an unarmed opponent.
**
Bank records obtained by the House Oversight Committee shows that “the Biden family, their associates, and their companies received over $10 million from foreign nationals and their companies.”
OBSERVATION – The biggest, by far, story of the decade -in fact the millennium is the massive corruption and crime by the biden regime family. You know the fix is in when the MSM monolithically sweeps it under the carpet.
Illegal Immigration –
Clock is ticking down as Title 42 is expected to be terminated at midnight tonight. Biden is claiming he is reinstating Trump’s “stay in Mexico” policy, but it is too little, too late – if he even had thoughts about enforcing it to begin with.
TX Nat’l Guard is physically turning back illegals in the Brownsville area. They have erected concertina wire fences to close off gaps in the border where thousands have been pouring in.
RUMINT – There is allegedly a secure chat room where DHS and Mexican officials set up originally to coordinate stopping the illegals. This chat room has reportedly been switched over to a means of notifying Mexican officials as to the location and status of Texas LEOs and National Guard, so they can direct the illegals to other undefended border crossing sites.
**
NBC News is reporting the Biden administration is planning to order the release of illegal migrants into the U.S. with “no way to track them.”
**
Fighting between Mexican security forces and unknown cartel members in Reynosa, Tamaulipas near the Pharr international bridge occurred yesterday. This is the third battle in the past couple weeks at this location and may be tied to cartel human trafficking.
With essentially no border, expect cartel violence to progressively migrate northward.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
RUMINT-
Wagner warlord Prigozhin’s recent tirades against the MoD may have crossed a line with putin and now could potentially face push back .
‘If this continues, official security forces will certainly put a stop to it,’ said a source close to the Kremlin, reported Meduza.
It was unclear if this meant liquidation - a fate of multiple Putin foes - or arrest, possibly for treason, which could see the 61-year-old billionaire warlord jailed for up to 21 years.
The report says Moscow’s propaganda agencies have already received a ‘warning’ from the Putin administration that if Prigozhin continues criticising the Defence Ministry and reporting ‘failures on the front’, journalists should begin ‘portraying him as a traitor’.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
putin has issued an order to call up reserves. The announcement claims that the callees will not be deployed to Ukraine, there are two ‘classified’ sections of the order not divulged.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s - 70s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting levels at Bakhmut have declined over the past couple days. This could be due to Russia beginning to switch operations from offensive in nature to defensive. This defensive switch in the Bakhmut region may have been triggered by the defeat/destruction of the 27th brigade in recent days. Wagner still seems want to press the offensive, even seeking to align with Chechen detachments to increase their man power.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka and areas west of Donetsk continues at reduced levels.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
A planned counteroffensive against Russian forces will have to wait until the military has had more time to prepare, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. In an interview on Thursday with public service broadcasters that are members of the Eurovision News exchange, Zelenskyy said the military is still waiting on certain equipment like armored vehicles.
“With [what we have] we can go forward and be successful,” Zelenskyy said. “But we’d lose a lot of people. I think that’s unacceptable. So we need to wait. We still need a bit more time.”
NOTE – There may be credibility in this statement, but also remember we are at the point of PSYOPS and if Russia can be caught thinking they have more time, then so much the better.
OUTLOOK –
The most fierce battles will continue around Bakhmut, but I see the level/intensity to decline in the coming days.
The interwebs will be filled with propaganda and other misdirection efforts as Ukraine preps to kick off its offensive and Russia tries to hold the moral of its soldiers and citizens up.
May get clues as to where Ukraine will strike the hardest based on increased artillery preparation targeting command, logistics and troop concentrations.
The delivery of the Storm Shadow cruise missiles puts the Kerch Strait bridge back into play. It is a critical supply line into Crimea and Russia has been hurrying to bring the rail portion back on line to supply the defensive actions. A strike on the bridge may well be the signal of the official kickoff of the offensive, even though Russia is projecting the rail portion to be repaired for use by June-July.
Europe / NATO General –
Britain has supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine, Ben Wallace announces. Defence Sec tells MPs the donation gives Ukraine the “best chance to defend themselves against Russia’s continued brutality”, especially the targeting of civilian infrastructure against international law. The missiles have a range of firing range in excess of 250km, or 155 miles. UK has announced that they will only be used within Ukrainian sovereign territory and not inside Russia. UK officials have made frequent public statements identifying Crimea as Ukrainian sovereign territory, describing it as “illegally annexed.”
Pakistan –
Violent protests continue with attacks on military bases/facilities. Military appears to be preparing to move on those attacks.
Israel –
PIJ rockets reached the 400+ level, but have been highly ineffective, with about 25% falling back on Gaza, most of the rest falling on empty fields- meaning Iron Dome only had to engage a handful of the remainder. Some longer range rockets were launched towards Tel Aviv, but had no effect.
Israel air and artillery strikes hit a wide variety of PIJ targets and the cumulation effect appears to have resulted in the curtailment of a lot of the rocket attacks. The military said that more than 100 Palestinian terror assets were hit. Reports that an IAF airstrike took out another senior PIJ leader.
Egypt is trying to negotiate a ceasefire, but so far has not been effective in getting one inplace.
So far Hamas has been staying out of the fight. PIJ is a rival faction and Hamas may be taking advantage of the conflict to see PIJ influence reduced.
Turkey -
Turkey poll alert: Respected polling company Konda has released its final poll.
• Kilicdaroglu: 49.3%
• Erdogan; 43.7%
• Ogan: 4.8%
• Ince: 2.2%
OBSERVATION – Still may go to a runoff between Erodogan and Kilicdaroglu, but the Kilicdaroglu has been surging in the polls and the large absentee vote may push him over the 50% level for a first round victory.
What loyalty does a mercenary owe a country? Is it even possible to be a traitor to a country if you aren't a citizen/subject of a country?
A spy, saboteur, or enemy certainly.
Putin violated the terms of the agreement, you fight, we will pay and provide you the materials you need to fight.
Who betrayed whom? кто кого?
Globalism / Great Reset –
Musk’s consideration of Linda Yaccarino (who is currently a WEF Executive Chair) does not bode well for free speech on Twitter as she is an advocate for censorship. Musk is also affiliated with the WEF, so the appointment could well be planned out. Musk maintains that he will be the senior to her and that his free speech efforts on Twitter will remain intact. Time will tell.
Economy –
Unemployment numbers are on the increase.
Biden / Harris watch –
In a recent presser, harris’ behavior was odd - even for her - leading many to believe she was drunk or high on something.
CW2/Domestic violence –
One aspect of the collapse of our border is the increased potential for internal fighting between the “established” minorities like BLM and others against illegal invaders. A potential tip of the iceberg was revealed in the South Side of Chicago where a group of residents (primarily black) are rejecting the placement of 250 illegals in their neighborhood.
There is no doubt – the crush of illegals will place burdens on the social welfare system, free food, housing, sanitation and overall increase in general crime. Health care is stretched to the max in nearly all the border towns.
Many of the illegals are coming in groups, having their own ‘tribe’ assembled that may then challenge the existing social welfare class of the towns they are being released into. This brings in the cartels imbedded in the mob which will further destabilize the situation. If this situation explodes, as IMHO, it will, democrats will be scrambling to establish damage control and mitigate the situation before it pulls the rug out of their 2024 campaigns.
This invasion is not due to incompetence, but a deliberate act to destabilize the country in order to bring it under subjugation to global authorities. Another conspiracy theory that is rapidly becoming fact.
Wuhan Plandemic -
Despite the fact that COVID-19 is no longer a major threat to anyone, the COVID cult is still in effect, and it could cost a nine-year-old boy his life. The COVID regime has already caused immense damage and ruined far too many lives. But, unfortunately, it appears the cult is not through with us just yet.
Tanner Donaldson, a 9-year-old boy with stage 4 chronic kidney disease, was born with a rare birth defect causing irreversible kidney damage. Tanner’s father, Dane Donaldson, is a suitable live kidney donor, but due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Cleveland Clinic Children’s Hospital has refused to conduct the transplant surgery because Dane is not vaccinated against the coronavirus.
The hospital has a policy that requires all organ donors to be fully vaccinated to minimize complications during and after surgery. Dane questioned the hospital’s hypocrisy, pointing out that deceased organ donors are not required to be vaccinated. He even offered to sign a waiver freeing the hospital from liability.
But the hospital still rejected him.
OBSERVATION – The evil that is the wuhan cult continues even though the WHO has ‘officially’ dropped the emergency. If he survives, hope he sues the living daylights out of this group of death cultists.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Biden has moved debt ceiling negotiations off until next week.
Illegal Immigration –
Within minutes of the expiration of Title 42, illegals were scrambling over fences and other access points to get into the US. Multiple cities, counties and states have declared states of emergency expecting social services and law enforcement to be overwhelmed by the mobs. West Texas DPS (Dept. of Public Safety) Chief Jose Sanchez told Fox News moments ago “We are preparing for civil unrest” after Title 42 ends tonight.
New York Governor Declares State Of Emergency As New York City Becomes Overwhelmed By Migrants – ‘Disaster is Imminent’
A judge in Cameron County, TX (Brownsville) has signed a DECLARATION OF DISASTER in response to the “imminent threat of widespread or severe damage, injury of loss of life or property resulting from the Border Security Disaster.”
Legal maneuvering continued into last night. CPS had announced that they would be releasing illegals into the country without court dates. Federal judge then blocked Biden admin from releasing migrants without court dates. Better believe the CPS is going to ‘ignore’ the court.
Some sectors of the border will be better guarded than others. Texas has deployed 10,000 nat’l guard forces to the border and have erected concertina barriers at identified crossing points – backed up by guards and DPS in riot gear, if necessary. But even this may be too little as tens of thousands intend to flood the border today, with millions moving as fast as US funded NGOs can get them bussed from Panama to the border.
See CW2 for further commentary on social unrest aspects.
OBSERVATION - This will create a crisis never before seen in this country. Increasing the potential for crime and violence.
China –
China’s space plane returned after a nearly 300 day mission where it reportedly docked with other satellites during its mission. It is thought to be testing our as an anti-sat system.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
RUMINT-
Putin and the MoD are reportedly trying to decide whether to hold back its dwindling cruise missile stockpiles to defend against a NATO attack or use them in an effort to thwart the Ukrainian offensive.
All kinds of rumors were flying over recent successful Ukraine counter attacks.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s - 70s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
What a wild 24 hours – note from here on out, we are transitioning to Ukrainian directed activity and things can happen fast.
Fighting levels at Bakhmut are still low, but what caused the magnitude 7 shockwave through the Russian milbogger world has been successful limited counterattacks against the Russian pincers north and south of Bakhmut. These attacks saw in many cases Russian forces dropping what they had and running for it. This in turn caused a meltdown on the Russian milblogger side saying that the Ukraine offensive has come and Russian forces were being destroyed. Even Wagner warlord Prigozhin was on board with these milbloggers and said they were abandoning Wagner forces.
In an interview, the Ukraine 3d Assault Brigade commander credited drying soil conditions for his unit’s recent successes in the Bakhmut area.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka and areas west of Donetsk continues at reduced levels. Main action has shifted overnight to a renewed push along highway H-15.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Reports of Ukraine probing and reconnaissance in force operations.
Russian Territory –
“A Ukrainian drone attacked the building of the military enlistment office in Starodub, Bryansk Region. According to preliminary data, the attack took place in the evening of May 10,” writes BAZA.
In the Kursk region, the morning began with 5 arrivals at a power substation in the village of Tetkino. The governor of the region reported that there are problems with electricity supply.
“A Ukrainian drone attacked the Rosneft Klintsovskyi oil depot, there were no casualties, the concrete base and a tank for storing oil products were partially damaged,” the Bryansk governor said.
OUTLOOK –
Expect heavy doses of propaganda, psyops and general confusion as the war transitions to Ukraine and the offensive.
Weee doggies, from all appearances, Russian forces are seriously spooked over the impending Ukrainian offensive. Now for starters, one must hold these milblogger reports at arms length and needing verification before accepting, but many of these milbloggers have shown to be pretty well connected with the Russian troop situation as well as unit leadership. The reaction of the Russian, thru the milbogger lens, is one of paranoia and poor situational communications among Russian units. One has to wonder what chaos will ensue when the offensive really hits.
As noted before, the soil conditions are the real driver to the timing of Ukraine’s effort. From the 3d Assault Bde commander in Bakhmut – the soil is drying out. This permits greater off road maneuverability of tanks and other armor. This also indicates that a lot of the spring runoff into streams and rivers is down, making any crossing a little easier.
Meanwhile, it appears that principally Wagner will continue the fight in Bakhmut claiming it only has another 650 meters to go to reach the western side of the city. However, softness on Wagner’s flanks may force them to limit their actions should Ukraine exploit the soft Russian regular forces further.
One thing to note. Many commentators out there are claiming Ukraine doesn’t have the forces to launch a successful offensive – noting that there is roughly numerical parity between the forces. That may be true, but Russia has to spread much of those forces out along the WHOLE line of contact, while Ukraine has the freedom to pick and choose where to CONCENTRATE its forces and firepower.
Israel –
Israel and the PIJ have continued going at it hammer and tongs. PIJ rockets reached nearly 1,000, but have been highly ineffective, with about 25% falling back on Gaza, most of the rest falling on empty fields- meaning Iron Dome only had to engage a handful of the remainder. Some longer range rockets were launched towards Tel Aviv, but but were intercepted by David’s Sling missiles for the first time.
Iron dome has reportedly had some technical problems and has allowed a few rockets to get past its defenses to hit Israeli residential areas. Iron dome still has maintained a 91% success rate.
IAF and ground forces continue to pound PIJ leadership, launching sites and storage areas. Ahmad Abu Daqqa, Deputy commander of PIJ’s Gaza rocket units has been killed by IDF strike in Gaza. He is the 4th senior leader taken out in the past 72 hours.
Egypt continues to try to broker a ceasefire, but PIJ ignores, Latest media reports say ceasefire talks collapsed after a PIJ barrage was fired towards the Jerusalem area.
OBSERVATION – Israel is focused on eliminating as much of the PIJ as possible. It is part of a strategy to pivot on Islamic opponents as it eventually expects to confront Hezbollah and Iran more directly.
Turkey -
Turkey’s breakaway opposition candidate Muharrem Ince withdrew from presidential race currently polling at 2%. İnce’s withdrawal could put Kılıçdaroğlu over the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff.
Mexico -
Rumors of coordination with the DHS on where to encourage illegals to cross to bypass TX guarded sites.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Finance leaders of the Group of Seven (G-7) rich nations warned of heightening global economic uncertainty on Saturday as they wrapped up a three-day meeting overshadowed by a U.S. debt ceiling stalemate and fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
G-7 central bank chiefs also vowed to combat “elevated” inflation and ensure expectations on future price moves remained well-anchored, a sign many of them will not let their guard down against stubbornly high inflation.
The gathering in the Japanese city of Niigata came as worries over a U.S. default fueled uncertainty over the global outlook, already clouded by recent U.S. bank failures and signs of slowdown in China’s economy.
OBSERVATION – As a component of the WEF, the G7 are essentially telegraphing the next phase of the global reset. Their statement indicates a growing instability in global markets that may be tipped over if the US defaults on its obligations. This summer could be one of the worst ever.
Economy –
The Federal Reserve should be prepared to raise rates further because inflation remains too high and the labor market too tight, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said in a speech Friday.
Bowman added that recent data on inflation, which many economists saw as paving the way for the Fed to halt interest rate hikes, has not provided evidence that inflation is receding.
OBSERVATION – Not enough misery in the country yet. Not good news for businesses and the market that was planning on a no increases over the summer and even reductions in the prime this fall.
Biden / Harris watch –
With all hell breaking loose on the border, biden decides to take another vacation in Delaware
CW2/Domestic violence –
The social justice warriors and sanctuary city/states are having the chickens come home to roost. Illegals are pushing out homeless veterans from temporary shelters, illegals sucking up social services quicker than quick and denying the existing victim class / welfare class of its benefits. This friction with the democrat base may or may not have been anticipated. One of the goals of communism’s attempts to expand into other areas is the creation of social strife and violence. A Hegelian situation where they create they create the problem and then offer the solution the people really don’t want, but will accept for ‘security’ reasons.
The illegal population has doubled in the past 3 years, and the million plus ready to surge the border will only make matters worse. This may trigger the activation of militia forces to protect against crime and violence from these illegals as they enter communities – noting that the vast majority of these illegals are single males of military age.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The United States said Friday it was sending reinforcements to the Gulf after what it called increasing harassment by Iran of ships in the oil-rich waters.
“The Department of Defense will be making a series of moves to bolster our defensive posture” in the Gulf, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters, saying there would be “details on those reinforcements in coming days.”
OBSERVATION – Iran has captured two oil tankers over the course of the past couple weeks.
Illegal Immigration –
Pre Title 42 era - “Border Patrol reports a record setting 83,000 migrants crossed our border illegally this week alone. Just to put that number in perspective for you, that is equivalent to a full capacity Dallas Cowboys football stadium crossing our border in a single week,” Fox News correspondent Bill Melugin reported.
More evidence of collusion with Mexico comes out regarding border agents communicating across the U.S.-Mexico border with Mexican authorities on encrypted messaging platforms to facilitate crowds of migrants entering the United States, according to Mexican officials.
NY Post reports that Homeless vets are being booted from New York hotels to make room for migrants.
OBSERVATION – Pretty slimy, even for the biden regime.
**
There were scattered reports of violence at crossing sites yesterday. One incidence is troubling. Michael Yon reported that a Nat’l Guard Staff Sergeant Michael DeCarlo behaving dangerously using 4wd truck to push into journalists (including Yon), and nearly hit a State Senator.
The massive Haitian migrant camp in Reynosa, Mexico right outside McAllen, TX is getting larger by the hour.
More and more National Guard, Border Patrol, and Texas DPS personnel are moving into the area to deter a charge over the border.
OBSERVATION – The charge across the border was muted to some extent by confusion on the part of the illegals regarding court orders forbidding the border patrol from catch and release, plus the biden claim of reinstating Trump’s stay in Mexico policy. Numbers were still well into the red zone and as more illegals crowd into border tent cities, the pressure to cross will only increase.
**
Mayorkas blasted a federal judge Friday for blocking the Biden administration from quickly releasing illegal immigrants into the United States.
U.S. District Judge Kent Wetherell issued the ruling that halted the Biden administration’s “parole with conditions” program Thursday, following a lawsuit by Republican officials in Florida. The Biden administration allowed Title 42 to lapse at 11:59 p.m. Thursday.
“Very harmful ruling, attacking a practice that prior administrations have used. It’s not new,” Mayorkas said to MSNBC host Jonathan Lemire. “But let me share with you what happens. First of all, the majority of individuals will be removed. When a Border Patrol facility is overcrowded, we screen and vet the individuals in our custody and then we release them, for them to go into immigration enforcement proceedings. The Department of Justice is considering its options.”
https://dailycaller.com/2023/05/12/dhs-mayorkas-migrants-title-42/
OBSERVATION – We all know by this time that Mayorkas is blowing BS. To say “Very harmful ruling, attacking a practice that prior administrations have used. “ while in nearly the same breath attacking Trumps border regulations is hypocrisy to the max. Virtually no one has been removed since the biden regime came to power. Nor are there any real plans to do so in the futures.
China –
In the midst of Pakistan’s turmoil, China is digging in its plans to usurp Pakistan’s resources for its use as Pakistan is defaulting on its loans from China.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
Prigozhin invited the leaders of Russian defense ministry to Bakhmut to stop their fleeing troops. He also said that Wagner PMC was “using their ammunition to stop the fleeing servicemen of the Russian army”.
NOTE – This seems to confirm the Russian shooting anyone who retreats from the battlelines.
RUMINT-
Given the recent outbursts, how politically expendable is Prigozhin? Rumors growing that he may soon be sidelined for his attacks on the MoD and is losing support from putin.
More and more unconfirmed reports that Russian morale and capabilities are threadbare and the capability to stand up to an organized offensive are minimal.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s - 70s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
What a wild 24 hours – note from here on out, we are transitioning to Ukrainian directed activity and things can happen fast.
US officials believe the Russians picked up on signals that are emitted from the Patriot, allowing it to be targeted with a Kinzhal missile. Ukrainians fired multiple missiles from the Patriot at different angles to intercept the Kinzhal missile.
Overnight, Russians attacked Ukraine from the northern and southern directions with Iranian-made Shahed-136/131 strike UAVs, 17 of 21 of which were shot down. They hit the western region of Khmelnytsky, creating a large explosion and fire.
Moscow acknowledged on Friday that its forces had fallen back north of Ukraine’s battlefield city of Bakhmut after a new Ukrainian offensive, in a retreat that the head of Russia’s Wagner private army called a rout.
In the past 48 hours, on the northern flank of the Bakhmut pocket, Ukraine has reversed about 2.5 months worth of Russian advances Russians, fleeing the front N-W of Bakhmut. Lost area is more than 10 square kilometers. Overall around Bakhmut, around 17.3 km² were liberated.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka and areas west of Donetsk continues at reduced levels. Main action has shifted overnight to a renewed push along highway H-15.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks. Reports of stronger Ukrainian attacks towards Svatove coming out from multiple sources on both sides.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Multiple reports of increased Ukrainian probing of Russian positions along the LOC west of Kharkiv.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian Sources are reporting that 2 Ukrainian Ballistic/Cruise Missiles have possibly Struck the City of Luhansk in Eastern Ukraine with some reports indicating that a Fuel/Oil Depot in the city was targeted but not yet confirmed. This is the first use of the British cruise missiles. Also, fragments an ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoy Use were found. The ADM-160B has a stated maximum range of around 500 miles and reportedly has the capability to mimic the radar signatures of various different kinds of aircraft. It is designed to follow a preprogrammed route, which can include loitering over designated areas. The use with the cruise missile of these decoys will totally mess with Russian planners.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Strong reconnanisance in force operations by Ukraine reported along several locations along this portion of the LOC.
Crimean front ———
Continued reports of Russian civilians fleeing Crimea as well as from southern Zaporizhizhia Oblast.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Shahed-136/131 strikes, 17 of 21 of which were shot down. They hit the western region of Khmelnytsky.
Russian Territory –
It is reported that 2 Russian helicopters were shot down by friendly fire over Bryansk region . Near the settlements of Klintsy and Suretsky Muravei.
OUTLOOK –
Expect heavy doses of propaganda, psyops and general confusion as the war transitions to Ukraine and the offensive. I don’t expect the ground component of the offensive to start for another two weeks. In the mean time I expect to see a lot of probing on the ground and Ukraine strategic strikes to shape the battlefield, and the location of those strikes can tip off where the focus of the offensive may be.
Increasing reports of Ukraine probing the LOC in multiple locations in the east and south.
Now confirmed successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the Bakhmut area have revealed the disarray that the regular Russian forces are in. These attacks yielded significant gains at a very minimal loss for Ukraine. On the northern flank, the recaptured territory includes the defensible high terrain overlooking the city. In the south, pushing back Russian threats to supply lines. Russians at this stage have very little to retreat further back to, as a lot of the terrain to the east is open country – making retreating units sitting ducks for Ukrainian artillery.
Bakhmut has been singled out by both sides as a critical turning point in the war. And now it is becoming apparent that Ukraine’s dogged defense of the city is beginning to pay off. The tie up of Russian assets and manpower (and the severe losses thereof) has a seriously weakened Russian military facing a more determined and motivated Ukrainian army refitted with more modern western equipment and armaments.
The guessing game on when and where Ukraine will drop the hammer is still ongoing. The deployment of US decoy drones with the British Cruise missiles spells serious trouble for Russia and in particular the Kerch Bridge, still under repairs from the truck bomb attack from last year. The vehicle side is open for use, but the rail side – and Russia heavily depends on rail for logistics support – is still mostly out of commission.
The presence of the British cruise missiles has placed further stress upon the Russian Black Sea fleet and may force them to deploy further away from Ukraine or even to risk staying out to sea where they could be hit by other Ukrainian assets.
Belarus -
RUMINT. Belarus sources are saying that Lukashenka had an extensive myocardial infarction, likely he was put into an artificial medical coma.
He had a wrist bandage wrapped on his right hand. This is indicative of chemotherapy or some other IV bag treatment. Chemotherapy can cause cardiomyopathy, arrhythmia, heart attack, stroke, high blood pressure, and blood clots. He also turned down dinner with Putin and other Russian ally leaders on May 9th.
OBSERVATION – More rumors abound that Lukashenk’s illness may have a Kremlin connection. He has provided some support to Russia’s war efforts , but has continually dodged commitment of forces or reopening a northern front against Ukraine. Were he to die, Russia may be able to force a more compliant leader willing to launch an attack towards Kyiv in order to relieve the beleaguered Russian forces in the south and east.
Israel –
PIJ rockets and IAF airstrikes continue
Latest IDF stats as of 08:00 local this morning -
1,099 rockets fired from Gaza
- 202 fall short in Gaza
- 865 cross border
— 340 intercepted
325 Islamic Jihad sites struck. Six senior PIJ leaders have been terminated - the core of their senior leadership.
Among the senior leadership killed yesterday includes Iyad al-Hassani, head of Saraya Al-Quds Operations and Islamic Jihad commander Eyad al-Husni “Abu Anas”.
Several sources within the Palestinian Islamic Jihad have stated that Hamas and other factions are preparing to join Operation “Revenge of the Free” against the Israeli Defense Forces today at 12:00pm Local-Time if a ceasefire has not been settled on.
OBSERVATION – This would be a dangerous escalation of the current fight. Could be just bluster by PIJ and/or an attempt to shame Hamas into joining the fight. If Hamas gets pulled in, Israel may just execute the ground invasion it has been planning and threatening for the past several years. With the PIJ seriously hurt, Hamas would bear the brunt of the Israeli efforts and I don’t think Hamas is ready for that many martyrs.
One important event coming up which may account for much of the PIJ anger beside the loss of senior leadership, is that Israel’s Flag Day is coming up and included in those celebrations is a march around the Temple Mount by flag carrying Israelis.
Syria -
Only the withdrawal of US troops from the occupied territories of Syria will ensure the return of the population of the region to peaceful life, - Moscow and Damascus said in a statement.
Happy Mother’s day out there.
Globalism / Great Reset –
See Wuhan for the deliberate destruction of fundamental medical practices under wuhan.
**
Christine Anderson From 15-Minute Cities to Climate Lockdowns, the Onslaught of Digital Tyranny
“The Digital Green Certificate, the COVID pass, that was a test balloon to get people to [have] to produce some kind of a QR code, just getting people used to that. Now, what they’re slamming us with is these 15-minute cities. Make no mistake. It’s not about your convenience,” argues Christine Anderson. She’s a member of the European Parliament, representing the Alternative for Germany Party.
“Once we end up in a totalitarian regime and it’s fully blown, given the technological means they have at their disposal today, we’re not talking about 30 years of GDR [German Democratic Republic], 40 years of GDR. We’re not talking about 70 years of the Soviet Union. We’re talking about a very, very long time. That’s what you should fear,” Anderson says.
OBSERVATION – A very, very, very long time.
Economy –
(Bloomberg) — As the US economy teeters on the brink of recession, Wall Street is already enduring what could turn out to be the most prolonged corporate profits downturn in seven years.
With the first-quarter earnings season drawing to a close, the profits of S&P 500 companies are estimated to have dropped 3.7% on average, compared to a year ago. While data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence shows that 78% of firms surpassed forecasts, that’s less impressive than it sounds, given analysts had slashed their expectations before the season kicked off.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/recession-corporate-america-s-earnings-say-it-s-already-arrived/ar-AA1b8H9p
OBSERVATION – this is one of multiple panel lights are flashing warnings of a possible severe recession striking this summer.
**
Biden will meet with the top four congressional leaders at the White House Tuesday to discuss how to avoid a default, but lawmakers expect little progress from the meeting. It’s the first face-to-face meeting between Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy since Feb. 1.
There’s growing pessimism in Washington and the financial markets that political leaders will negotiate a long-term deal by early June, the deadline set by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
If an agreement doesn’t come together in the next month, congressional leaders will have to agree to a short-term extension of the debt limit to give themselves more time to negotiate.
Without a short-term agreement, the US would go past the so-called “X-date” and face major turmoil in the markets.
McConnell’s support for a letter signed by 43 Senate Republicans declaring they will not support “any bill that raises the debt ceiling without substantive spending and budget reforms” has failed to move Democrats away from insisting on a clean debt-ceiling increase.
OBSERVATION – The game of chicken continues. Most likely on the short term is an extension into summer. However, if the summer brings a recession – the pressure cooker of a ceiling limit may trigger even larger standoffs between biden and the house.
IN RELATED - Biden is scheduled to travel abroad next Wednesday for a week, the two sides have an increasingly narrow window of time to avoid economic disaster. Biden’s “delay tactics,” declining to meet with Republicans over the debt ceiling without a budget counteroffer, “have put our country directly in harm’s way,” according to Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD), chairman of the Republican Main Street Caucus.
**
(Bloomberg) — America’s wheat fields have become so plagued by drought that farmers are now poised to abandon crops at the highest rate in more than a century.
Producers are expected to harvest about 67% of their planted acres, the US Department of Agriculture said Friday. If realized, that would be the lowest harvest ratio since 1917, the agency said in a monthly report.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/farmers-set-abandon-us-wheat-204246494.html
OBSERVATION – This is not a good trend. Wheat is such a widely used product for our food that reduced harvests will maintain upward inflation pressures on food for at least another year. This also poses a serious threat should there be a major incident that causes greater turmoil or food losses – which then translates to food shortages here in the US and the world.
Biden / Harris watch –
See CW2 on bidens graduation speech
CW2/Domestic violence –
BIDEN: “The most dangerous terrorist threat to our homeland is white supremacy, and I’m not saying this because I’m at a Black HBCU”
OBSERVATION – This is clearly inflammatory language directed to heighten racial tensions. The more interracial chaos – the better the biden regime and the deep state like it.
IN RELATED - On Saturday, members of the Patriot Front, a group that leftists have labeled as white supremacist, marched towards the U.S. Capitol.
Approximately 150-200 members of the Patriot Front were out in khakis and blue T-shirts again. They were all wearing masks while being escorted with police.
OBSERVATION – Many view the “Patriot Front” as a false flag element manned by fed agents. Coincidence that they ‘’marched’ on the same day Biden called white supremacy the most dangerous threat to the country.
**
Vermont on Monday made it a crime to own or operate paramilitary training camps in the state after Republican Gov. Phil Scott signed legislation introduced in response to a firearms training facility built without permits that neighbors called a menace.
Violators face up to five years in prison or a fine up to $50,000 or both, according to the law. It prohibits a person from teaching, training, or demonstrating to anyone else the use, application, or making of a firearm, explosive, or incendiary device capable of causing injury or death that will be used in or in furtherance of a civil disorder. It also bans a person from assembling with others for such training, instruction or practice.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
A Defense Department official told Congress that the Pentagon is acting on plans to build a multi-layered air defense system in Guam, where Washington keeps several military bases. The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is requesting $1.5 billion to begin stationing new radars and interceptors on the island next year.
Wuhan Plandemic –
“A new analysis suggests that a high percentage of people who required help from a ventilator due to a COVID-19 infection also developed secondary bacterial pneumonia,” the paper says. “This pneumonia was responsible for a higher mortality rate than the COVID-19 infection.” The paper continues to say it was the use of a mechanical ventilator that was the cause of death.
**
Folks, the following link is to a thoughtful analysis of how the WEF/Deep State used wuhan to seriously destroy key principles of medical practice. These actions documented were not ‘mistakes’ by the medical community – but deliberate and considered actions designed to throw as much fear and chaos into the population in order to condition the sheeple to unthinkingly follow govt dictates. A primer for future govt’ dictates.
https://brownstone.org/articles/medical-ethics-destroyed-in-covid-response/
Illegal Immigration –
The tsunami is developing, but not full blown as predicted. Partially due to uncertainity that the illegals see that they won’t be given quite the free pass as initially promised. Court battles this week may clarify the situation, but with that I still expect to see record numbers of illegals crossing over the border.
**
H/T to TIK for reminding me that included with all these illegals are a swarm that are carrying drug resistant tuberculosis, scabies and a host of other diseases into the country.
**
In a blistering critique, a federal judge late Saturday denied the Biden Justice Department’s request to stay a temporary restraining order blocking the release of illegal immigrants into the United States without court dates.
U.S. District Judge T. Kent Wetherell II, a Trump appointee in Florida, called the Biden administration’s request for an emergency stay “borderline frivolous” and “Chicken Little.”
The ruling left the DOJ to seek relief from the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, a move which earlier in the day officials said they were prepared to do.
The judge said the administration had no basis to release migrants into the country’s interior without a court date now that the Trump-era Title 42 policy had expired.
OBSERVATION – The extent to which the biden regime will selectively ignore this ruling is yet to be seen, but such an action would not be the first time.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russian defense ministry confirms death of colonel Makarov and colonel Brovko in Ukraine. Reportedly as part of the fight at Bakhmut.
NOTE - Russia has lost a slug of generals and high ranking officers in this war. I’ll have to try and find the current count.
Economic Impact –
The Group of Seven (G7) industrial powers and the European Union will ban Russian gas imports on routes where Moscow has cut supplies, the Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing officials involved in the negotiations.
The decision, to be finalized by G7 leaders at a summit in Hiroshima starting on Friday, will prevent the resumption of Russian pipeline gas exports on routes to countries such as Poland and Germany, where Moscow cut off supplies last year, the newspaper said.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s - 70s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Another wild 24 hours – note from here on out, we are transitioning to Ukrainian directed activity and things can happen fast.
Russian milbloggers are trying to catch their breath and calm the riled up Russian followers following the meltdown of recent days.
Russia appears to have fired missiles into Ukraine overnight, but targets and success are not being announced by Ukraine – likely OPSEC considerations.
In the past 48 hours, on the northern and southern flanks of the Bakhmut pocket, Ukraine forces continue to make gains on disorganized Russian forces. This has lead to rumors that Ukraine is executing its own encirclement of Bakhmut.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka and areas west of Donetsk continues at reduced levels. Main action has shifted overnight to a renewed push along highway H-15.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Uptick in fighting west of Svatove continues.
Ukraine hit the Russian targets in Tokmak and nearby Molochansk overnight.
Russian Territory –
Oil depot in Klintsy of Briansk region was attacked again, no serious damage, 2 craters found
Yesterday I reported that 2 Russian helicopters were shot down by friendly fire over Bryansk region. This has been updated to possibly a third as well as two aircraft – a Su-34 strike jet, and a Su-35 fighter. All were probably taken down by Russian ADA, though Russia is trying to claim that some sort of long range Ukrainian surface to air missiles were used. The two MI-8s were apparently rare EW choppers. According to Russian media security services in Briansk region are looking for saboteurs who used MANPADS in Klintsy region. Good video of one of the MI-8 hits clearly show it was a MANPADS missile that took it out.
OUTLOOK –
Expect heavy doses of propaganda, psyops and general confusion as the war transitions to Ukraine and the offensive. I don’t expect the ground component of the offensive to start for another two weeks. In the mean time I expect to see a lot of probing on the ground and Ukraine strategic strikes to shape the battlefield, and the location of those strikes can tip off where the focus of the offensive may be.
It appears that Russia is trying to step up its strategic attacks on Ukraine storage facilities with its remaining cruise/ballistic and drone assets. When compared to a year ago, the volume and intensity of the attacks are significantly lower and the Ukrainian ADA response substantially better.
Ukraine, OTOH is continuing its battlefield preparation as well, hitting significant targets such as command posts (note the Russian loss of two senior colonels above), logistics and troop concentrations.
If Ukraine is pushing further around Bakhmut, Russia faces the encirclement of its own forces and once again places Russian planners on the horns of a dilemma. Send scarce resources to reinforce those forces, or struggle to pull them back, ceding multiple months worth of efforts back to Ukraine. Keeping the focus on Bakhmut is forcing Russia not to prepare better in other areas of the front.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Recent Russian cruise missile attacks crossed over Moldova.
Belarus -
Lukashenko didn’t attend the ceremony honoring the state flag, coat of arms and anthem, which is now held on State Flag Square in Minsk.
Prime minister Roman Golovchenko made a speech instead of the dictator.
OBSERVATION – Pretty well confirmed that Lukashenko is hospitalized and the potential is increasing that Belarus may soon be at a leadership crisis moment. Do the pro-Russian members of Lukashenko’s regime hold enough power and strength to counter the mostly anti-Russian population?
Israel –
75 years ago today, the State of Israel was born.
A shaky ceasefire is holding across the region. Prior to it, Israeli air and ground forces hit dozens of PIJ command centers, missile launch sites and other targets, such as leaders homes.
Turkey -
Elections are ongoing and we should have an idea who the next leader of the country is later today. Turnout is reportedly huge.
Happy Mother’s day out there.
Globalism / Great Reset –
See Wuhan for the deliberate destruction of fundamental medical practices under wuhan.
**
Christine Anderson From 15-Minute Cities to Climate Lockdowns, the Onslaught of Digital Tyranny
“The Digital Green Certificate, the COVID pass, that was a test balloon to get people to [have] to produce some kind of a QR code, just getting people used to that. Now, what they’re slamming us with is these 15-minute cities. Make no mistake. It’s not about your convenience,” argues Christine Anderson. She’s a member of the European Parliament, representing the Alternative for Germany Party.
“Once we end up in a totalitarian regime and it’s fully blown, given the technological means they have at their disposal today, we’re not talking about 30 years of GDR [German Democratic Republic], 40 years of GDR. We’re not talking about 70 years of the Soviet Union. We’re talking about a very, very long time. That’s what you should fear,” Anderson says.
OBSERVATION – A very, very, very long time.
Economy –
(Bloomberg) — As the US economy teeters on the brink of recession, Wall Street is already enduring what could turn out to be the most prolonged corporate profits downturn in seven years.
With the first-quarter earnings season drawing to a close, the profits of S&P 500 companies are estimated to have dropped 3.7% on average, compared to a year ago. While data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence shows that 78% of firms surpassed forecasts, that’s less impressive than it sounds, given analysts had slashed their expectations before the season kicked off.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/recession-corporate-america-s-earnings-say-it-s-already-arrived/ar-AA1b8H9p
OBSERVATION – this is one of multiple panel lights are flashing warnings of a possible severe recession striking this summer.
**
Biden will meet with the top four congressional leaders at the White House Tuesday to discuss how to avoid a default, but lawmakers expect little progress from the meeting. It’s the first face-to-face meeting between Biden and Speaker Kevin McCarthy since Feb. 1.
There’s growing pessimism in Washington and the financial markets that political leaders will negotiate a long-term deal by early June, the deadline set by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.
If an agreement doesn’t come together in the next month, congressional leaders will have to agree to a short-term extension of the debt limit to give themselves more time to negotiate.
Without a short-term agreement, the US would go past the so-called “X-date” and face major turmoil in the markets.
McConnell’s support for a letter signed by 43 Senate Republicans declaring they will not support “any bill that raises the debt ceiling without substantive spending and budget reforms” has failed to move Democrats away from insisting on a clean debt-ceiling increase.
OBSERVATION – The game of chicken continues. Most likely on the short term is an extension into summer. However, if the summer brings a recession – the pressure cooker of a ceiling limit may trigger even larger standoffs between biden and the house.
IN RELATED - Biden is scheduled to travel abroad next Wednesday for a week, the two sides have an increasingly narrow window of time to avoid economic disaster. Biden’s “delay tactics,” declining to meet with Republicans over the debt ceiling without a budget counteroffer, “have put our country directly in harm’s way,” according to Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-SD), chairman of the Republican Main Street Caucus.
**
(Bloomberg) — America’s wheat fields have become so plagued by drought that farmers are now poised to abandon crops at the highest rate in more than a century.
Producers are expected to harvest about 67% of their planted acres, the US Department of Agriculture said Friday. If realized, that would be the lowest harvest ratio since 1917, the agency said in a monthly report.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/farmers-set-abandon-us-wheat-204246494.html
OBSERVATION – This is not a good trend. Wheat is such a widely used product for our food that reduced harvests will maintain upward inflation pressures on food for at least another year. This also poses a serious threat should there be a major incident that causes greater turmoil or food losses – which then translates to food shortages here in the US and the world.
Biden / Harris watch –
See CW2 on bidens graduation speech
CW2/Domestic violence –
BIDEN: “The most dangerous terrorist threat to our homeland is white supremacy, and I’m not saying this because I’m at a Black HBCU”
OBSERVATION – This is clearly inflammatory language directed to heighten racial tensions. The more interracial chaos – the better the biden regime and the deep state like it.
IN RELATED - On Saturday, members of the Patriot Front, a group that leftists have labeled as white supremacist, marched towards the U.S. Capitol.
Approximately 150-200 members of the Patriot Front were out in khakis and blue T-shirts again. They were all wearing masks while being escorted with police.
OBSERVATION – Many view the “Patriot Front” as a false flag element manned by fed agents. Coincidence that they ‘’marched’ on the same day Biden called white supremacy the most dangerous threat to the country.
**
Vermont on Monday made it a crime to own or operate paramilitary training camps in the state after Republican Gov. Phil Scott signed legislation introduced in response to a firearms training facility built without permits that neighbors called a menace.
Violators face up to five years in prison or a fine up to $50,000 or both, according to the law. It prohibits a person from teaching, training, or demonstrating to anyone else the use, application, or making of a firearm, explosive, or incendiary device capable of causing injury or death that will be used in or in furtherance of a civil disorder. It also bans a person from assembling with others for such training, instruction or practice.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
A Defense Department official told Congress that the Pentagon is acting on plans to build a multi-layered air defense system in Guam, where Washington keeps several military bases. The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is requesting $1.5 billion to begin stationing new radars and interceptors on the island next year.
Wuhan Plandemic –
“A new analysis suggests that a high percentage of people who required help from a ventilator due to a COVID-19 infection also developed secondary bacterial pneumonia,” the paper says. “This pneumonia was responsible for a higher mortality rate than the COVID-19 infection.” The paper continues to say it was the use of a mechanical ventilator that was the cause of death.
**
Folks, the following link is to a thoughtful analysis of how the WEF/Deep State used wuhan to seriously destroy key principles of medical practice. These actions documented were not ‘mistakes’ by the medical community – but deliberate and considered actions designed to throw as much fear and chaos into the population in order to condition the sheeple to unthinkingly follow govt dictates. A primer for future govt’ dictates.
https://brownstone.org/articles/medical-ethics-destroyed-in-covid-response/
Illegal Immigration –
The tsunami is developing, but not full blown as predicted. Partially due to uncertainity that the illegals see that they won’t be given quite the free pass as initially promised. Court battles this week may clarify the situation, but with that I still expect to see record numbers of illegals crossing over the border.
**
H/T to TIK for reminding me that included with all these illegals are a swarm that are carrying drug resistant tuberculosis, scabies and a host of other diseases into the country.
**
In a blistering critique, a federal judge late Saturday denied the Biden Justice Department’s request to stay a temporary restraining order blocking the release of illegal immigrants into the United States without court dates.
U.S. District Judge T. Kent Wetherell II, a Trump appointee in Florida, called the Biden administration’s request for an emergency stay “borderline frivolous” and “Chicken Little.”
The ruling left the DOJ to seek relief from the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, a move which earlier in the day officials said they were prepared to do.
The judge said the administration had no basis to release migrants into the country’s interior without a court date now that the Trump-era Title 42 policy had expired.
OBSERVATION – The extent to which the biden regime will selectively ignore this ruling is yet to be seen, but such an action would not be the first time.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russian defense ministry confirms death of colonel Makarov and colonel Brovko in Ukraine. Reportedly as part of the fight at Bakhmut.
NOTE - Russia has lost a slug of generals and high ranking officers in this war. I’ll have to try and find the current count.
Economic Impact –
The Group of Seven (G7) industrial powers and the European Union will ban Russian gas imports on routes where Moscow has cut supplies, the Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing officials involved in the negotiations.
The decision, to be finalized by G7 leaders at a summit in Hiroshima starting on Friday, will prevent the resumption of Russian pipeline gas exports on routes to countries such as Poland and Germany, where Moscow cut off supplies last year, the newspaper said.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s - 70s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Another wild 24 hours – note from here on out, we are transitioning to Ukrainian directed activity and things can happen fast.
Russian milbloggers are trying to catch their breath and calm the riled up Russian followers following the meltdown of recent days.
Russia appears to have fired missiles into Ukraine overnight, but targets and success are not being announced by Ukraine – likely OPSEC considerations.
In the past 48 hours, on the northern and southern flanks of the Bakhmut pocket, Ukraine forces continue to make gains on disorganized Russian forces. This has lead to rumors that Ukraine is executing its own encirclement of Bakhmut.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka and areas west of Donetsk continues at reduced levels. Main action has shifted overnight to a renewed push along highway H-15.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Uptick in fighting west of Svatove continues.
Ukraine hit the Russian targets in Tokmak and nearby Molochansk overnight.
Russian Territory –
Oil depot in Klintsy of Briansk region was attacked again, no serious damage, 2 craters found
Yesterday I reported that 2 Russian helicopters were shot down by friendly fire over Bryansk region. This has been updated to possibly a third as well as two aircraft – a Su-34 strike jet, and a Su-35 fighter. All were probably taken down by Russian ADA, though Russia is trying to claim that some sort of long range Ukrainian surface to air missiles were used. The two MI-8s were apparently rare EW choppers. According to Russian media security services in Briansk region are looking for saboteurs who used MANPADS in Klintsy region. Good video of one of the MI-8 hits clearly show it was a MANPADS missile that took it out.
OUTLOOK –
Expect heavy doses of propaganda, psyops and general confusion as the war transitions to Ukraine and the offensive. I don’t expect the ground component of the offensive to start for another two weeks. In the mean time I expect to see a lot of probing on the ground and Ukraine strategic strikes to shape the battlefield, and the location of those strikes can tip off where the focus of the offensive may be.
It appears that Russia is trying to step up its strategic attacks on Ukraine storage facilities with its remaining cruise/ballistic and drone assets. When compared to a year ago, the volume and intensity of the attacks are significantly lower and the Ukrainian ADA response substantially better.
Ukraine, OTOH is continuing its battlefield preparation as well, hitting significant targets such as command posts (note the Russian loss of two senior colonels above), logistics and troop concentrations.
If Ukraine is pushing further around Bakhmut, Russia faces the encirclement of its own forces and once again places Russian planners on the horns of a dilemma. Send scarce resources to reinforce those forces, or struggle to pull them back, ceding multiple months worth of efforts back to Ukraine. Keeping the focus on Bakhmut is forcing Russia not to prepare better in other areas of the front.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Recent Russian cruise missile attacks crossed over Moldova.
Belarus -
Lukashenko didn’t attend the ceremony honoring the state flag, coat of arms and anthem, which is now held on State Flag Square in Minsk.
Prime minister Roman Golovchenko made a speech instead of the dictator.
OBSERVATION – Pretty well confirmed that Lukashenko is hospitalized and the potential is increasing that Belarus may soon be at a leadership crisis moment. Do the pro-Russian members of Lukashenko’s regime hold enough power and strength to counter the mostly anti-Russian population?
Israel –
75 years ago today, the State of Israel was born.
A shaky ceasefire is holding across the region. Prior to it, Israeli air and ground forces hit dozens of PIJ command centers, missile launch sites and other targets, such as leaders homes.
Turkey -
Elections are ongoing and we should have an idea who the next leader of the country is later today. Turnout is reportedly huge.
Does that include hunter safety courses?
I think they carved out an exception for that - at least for now.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Made a mistake, the WHO is meeting NEXT week, not this week. My bad.
**
“Everything is going to be transparent ... you have to behave accordingly.” “If you have nothing to hide, you shouldn’t be afraid”. — Klaus Schwab
OBSERVATION – The end goal of the developing surveillance state. With digital ID requirements you can’t go or do anything with out being monitored in some manner.
RELATED - TSA tests facial recognition technology to boost airport security. Facial recognition is a growing field – combine with AI and the capacity for monitoring individuals grows exponentially.
MORE RELATED - The European Union says its “digital identity wallet” will go into use next year. China has incorporated similar with facial recognition to monitor/control movement of its population.
Economy –
Clock is ticking on debt ceiling and biden is stalling. My thoughts are that he is wanting to precipitate a default as a means to gain leverage for his agenda and even more spending. More than willing to burn it all down as long as he can rule over the ashes.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden sets off this week on an eight-day trip to the Indo-Pacific. Doesn’t matter that the debt ceiling crash is looming.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Mayorkas agrees with Biden that “white supremacy” is the “greatest threat” of terrorism to the United States.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Potential new Military Chief of Staff desires to reduce the number of white officers just because they are white.
Illegal Immigration –
Illegal immigrants released into the United States from the southern border post-Title 42 may not have to appear in federal court and face justice for at least another decade.
OBSERVATION – this is criminal – give them 10 years to cause trouble and then are likely to blow off the court appearance. And there is no way to track them. Basically granting a 10 yr green card.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
RUMINT-
RUMINT. In January “Prigozhin said that if Ukraine’s commanders withdrew their soldiers from the area around Bakhmut, he would give Kyiv information on Russian troop positions, which Ukraine could use to attack them”
NOTE – This could be part of the MoDs strike back following Prigozhin’s recent attacks on the Russian generals. Knives are getting sharp.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s - 70s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Situation is becoming more dynamic and can change rapidly.
Bakhmut pocket, Ukraine forces reportedly made more gains on the northern and southern margins of the pocket.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka has died off significantly leaving sporadic artillery fire.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
South of Bakhmut, it is being reported that Ukraine troops are moving southwards along the canal towards western Klishchiivka. These open fields have been reportedly abandoned by Russian forces. To the north of Klishchiivka, battles are being fought at the forest strip. Russian VDV units have been pulled to stabilize the situation.
NOTE – Use of the few remaining VDV units does not bode well for Russia as they would normally be used as a mobile reserve. That reserve is now committed to a counter-attack scenario.
Russian sources report that they have lost Kuzemivka to the Ukrainian Army after the Ukrainians managed to break through Russian lines. Kuzemivka is north of Svatove.
Donetsk Oblast ——
More explosions were observed reported in Luhansk, suspected Ukraine cruise missile strikes.
OUTLOOK –
Expect heavy doses of propaganda, psyops and general confusion as the war transitions to Ukraine and the offensive. I don’t expect the ground component of the offensive to start for another two weeks. In the mean time I expect to see a lot of probing on the ground and Ukraine strategic strikes to shape the battlefield, and the location of those strikes can tip off where the focus of the offensive may be.
Russia finds itself embracing a tar baby in the form of Bakhmut. It is apparent that Russia is trying to pull out essential forces to form or reconstitute a reserve and Ukraine is taking full advantage of the poor Russian leadership and poor planning to reverse months of Russian efforts in a matter of a few hours. And Ukraine is accomplishing this without a massive reinforcement but with troops already on hand.
Increasingly regular Russian drone & missile strikes are likely part of a new Russian air campaign in Ukraine aimed at degrading Ukrainian abilities to conduct counteroffensive offensive operations in the near term. They got some initial success hitting a substantial ammo dump in western Ukraine. However, Russia is seriously short of these missiles and drones. One strike, Russia used 17 drones, about 13 were shot down, leaving only 4 to get through. Enough to cause a lot of damage, but it burns through a lot of drones.
Ukraine is utilizing its recently acquired cruise missiles to nail Russian command centers, troop concentrations and supply dumps deep behind the enemy lines. Combined with US decoys, Russia seems unable to mount an effective response.
Belarus -
Observers note no buildup of Russian forces in Belarus and their activities there continue to be training related.
Nothing further on the status of Lukashenka, though rumors are swirling over his possible death.
Israel –
The cease fire continues to hold.
Turkey -
Turkey election results
Erdogan: 49.2%
Kilicdaroglu: 45%
Ogan: 5.2%
100% counted
OBSERVATION – The way is uphill for Kilicdaroglu in the runoff as Ogan is seen as syphoning off votes from Erdogan. However, there is an outside chance he may toss his support to Kilicodaroglu.
Erdogan in a strong position ahead of presidential runoff for two reasons:
• He retained the majority in the parliament
• And Ogan’s nationalist votes are likely come back home to Erdogan
Next round of voting in about two weeks if I read correctly.
Africa general –
Sudan –
Fighting continues and the fate of US citizens is no longer being reported- swept under the rug by the regime and MSM. Mercenaries from across Africa’s Sahel region are flooding into the fight, according to a UN officials.
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