Globalism / Great Reset –
Made a mistake, the WHO is meeting NEXT week, not this week. My bad.
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“Everything is going to be transparent ... you have to behave accordingly.” “If you have nothing to hide, you shouldn’t be afraid”. — Klaus Schwab
OBSERVATION – The end goal of the developing surveillance state. With digital ID requirements you can’t go or do anything with out being monitored in some manner.
RELATED - TSA tests facial recognition technology to boost airport security. Facial recognition is a growing field – combine with AI and the capacity for monitoring individuals grows exponentially.
MORE RELATED - The European Union says its “digital identity wallet” will go into use next year. China has incorporated similar with facial recognition to monitor/control movement of its population.
Economy –
Clock is ticking on debt ceiling and biden is stalling. My thoughts are that he is wanting to precipitate a default as a means to gain leverage for his agenda and even more spending. More than willing to burn it all down as long as he can rule over the ashes.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden sets off this week on an eight-day trip to the Indo-Pacific. Doesn’t matter that the debt ceiling crash is looming.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Mayorkas agrees with Biden that “white supremacy” is the “greatest threat” of terrorism to the United States.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Potential new Military Chief of Staff desires to reduce the number of white officers just because they are white.
Illegal Immigration –
Illegal immigrants released into the United States from the southern border post-Title 42 may not have to appear in federal court and face justice for at least another decade.
OBSERVATION – this is criminal – give them 10 years to cause trouble and then are likely to blow off the court appearance. And there is no way to track them. Basically granting a 10 yr green card.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
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RUMINT-
RUMINT. In January “Prigozhin said that if Ukraine’s commanders withdrew their soldiers from the area around Bakhmut, he would give Kyiv information on Russian troop positions, which Ukraine could use to attack them”
NOTE – This could be part of the MoDs strike back following Prigozhin’s recent attacks on the Russian generals. Knives are getting sharp.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s - 70s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Situation is becoming more dynamic and can change rapidly.
Bakhmut pocket, Ukraine forces reportedly made more gains on the northern and southern margins of the pocket.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka has died off significantly leaving sporadic artillery fire.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
South of Bakhmut, it is being reported that Ukraine troops are moving southwards along the canal towards western Klishchiivka. These open fields have been reportedly abandoned by Russian forces. To the north of Klishchiivka, battles are being fought at the forest strip. Russian VDV units have been pulled to stabilize the situation.
NOTE – Use of the few remaining VDV units does not bode well for Russia as they would normally be used as a mobile reserve. That reserve is now committed to a counter-attack scenario.
Russian sources report that they have lost Kuzemivka to the Ukrainian Army after the Ukrainians managed to break through Russian lines. Kuzemivka is north of Svatove.
Donetsk Oblast ——
More explosions were observed reported in Luhansk, suspected Ukraine cruise missile strikes.
OUTLOOK –
Expect heavy doses of propaganda, psyops and general confusion as the war transitions to Ukraine and the offensive. I don’t expect the ground component of the offensive to start for another two weeks. In the mean time I expect to see a lot of probing on the ground and Ukraine strategic strikes to shape the battlefield, and the location of those strikes can tip off where the focus of the offensive may be.
Russia finds itself embracing a tar baby in the form of Bakhmut. It is apparent that Russia is trying to pull out essential forces to form or reconstitute a reserve and Ukraine is taking full advantage of the poor Russian leadership and poor planning to reverse months of Russian efforts in a matter of a few hours. And Ukraine is accomplishing this without a massive reinforcement but with troops already on hand.
Increasingly regular Russian drone & missile strikes are likely part of a new Russian air campaign in Ukraine aimed at degrading Ukrainian abilities to conduct counteroffensive offensive operations in the near term. They got some initial success hitting a substantial ammo dump in western Ukraine. However, Russia is seriously short of these missiles and drones. One strike, Russia used 17 drones, about 13 were shot down, leaving only 4 to get through. Enough to cause a lot of damage, but it burns through a lot of drones.
Ukraine is utilizing its recently acquired cruise missiles to nail Russian command centers, troop concentrations and supply dumps deep behind the enemy lines. Combined with US decoys, Russia seems unable to mount an effective response.
Belarus -
Observers note no buildup of Russian forces in Belarus and their activities there continue to be training related.
Nothing further on the status of Lukashenka, though rumors are swirling over his possible death.
Israel –
The cease fire continues to hold.
Turkey -
Turkey election results
Erdogan: 49.2%
Kilicdaroglu: 45%
Ogan: 5.2%
100% counted
OBSERVATION – The way is uphill for Kilicdaroglu in the runoff as Ogan is seen as syphoning off votes from Erdogan. However, there is an outside chance he may toss his support to Kilicodaroglu.
Erdogan in a strong position ahead of presidential runoff for two reasons:
• He retained the majority in the parliament
• And Ogan’s nationalist votes are likely come back home to Erdogan
Next round of voting in about two weeks if I read correctly.
Africa general –
Sudan –
Fighting continues and the fate of US citizens is no longer being reported- swept under the rug by the regime and MSM. Mercenaries from across Africa’s Sahel region are flooding into the fight, according to a UN officials.
Economy –
Biden is supposed to be meeting with congressional leaders today to move forward with a plan to raise the debt ceiling. Don’t expect any movement on biden’s side. He will then be gone on an 8 day global tour – so don’t expect much movement.
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Oil prices rose during early trading on May 15 after a long streak of weekly declines, with the overall market sentiment expected to remain lukewarm because of worries about the state of the U.S. economy.
Brent crude oil prices were trading at $75.42 per barrel on May 15 as of 10:44 a.m. EDT, up from its opening of $74.22. West Texas Intermediate prices were trading at $71.28 per barrel, up from about $70.08. The rise in oil prices follows four consecutive weekly losses before last weekend, which is the longest streak of weekly declines since September 2022. The decline was due to concerns that the United States could slip into a recession as the country edges toward a historic debt default next month.
OBSERVATION – Oil prices will play a big factor as the summer progresses, with some analysts still looking for it to rise to the 90-100 dollar / barrel range due to OPEC cutbacks and anticipated increased demand by China. Throw this on top of an expected ‘official’ recession this summer and, well things could get ugly for the economy.
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Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, highlighted the stickiness of inflation, while saying that he doesn’t anticipate any interest-rate cuts this year and, if anything, “we may have to go up.”
Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, largely echoed that sentiment, although he struck a more dovish tone, saying that much of the impact from the Fed’s series of rapid rate increases is still in the pipeline. He said he’d need to see more data—in particular around tightening credit conditions—before committing to a bias on the future path of interest rates.
OBSERVATION – Realize this – continued rises to the interest rates in the face of a recession will only go to amplify the severity of that recession. Already some economists are re-raising the spectre of a deep to nearly depression level recession. And this is even without the effects of a potential govt shut down from the democrat failure to work out a deficit ceiling agreement.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Monitoring potential violent pushback against illegals, particularly in those bluer areas where the existing govt hand out class now realizes it may lose their priority to these illegal refugees. Will this also result in a dramatic increase in thefts from stores in the areas as well as crime in general.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Special Counsel John Durham on Monday released a 300-plus page report that totally decimated the ‘narrative’ regarding the now demonstratively false “Russian Collusion” charges against Trump. It demonstrates that this narrative was known to be false and that it was approved at the highest levels – 0bama et al – and the FBI/DoJ followed through with the bogus investigation while covering up the much more serious charges against Clinton. I’ll leave it there because to go further will just get my blood pressure up. Our govt is thoroughly corrupted to the point that even a second trump term will have little impact on it. The following is a link to one of many that boil this mongaso down
https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/holdtop-10-takeaways-durham-report
I’m also not getting my hopes up for any criminal actions either. Durham’s report doesn’t include any and who is to believe that the DoJ will essentially prosecute itself given how bought in it was to this whole scam to begin with.
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Biden’s DOJ has removed the entire IRS team investigating Hunter Biden’s tax fraud case. In doing so the IRS also removed the whistleblower in retaliation obstructing the congressional investigation.
OBSERVATION – The regime apparently is becoming scared and directing its alphabet agencies to become more overt in their illegal actions to cover the crimes of the biden clan.
Illegal Immigration –
Going viral is Security footage taken along the US-Mexico border in Texas showed a US soldier opening a gate to let migrants in just days after Joe Biden let Title 42 expire.
The video, shared by FOX LA’s Bill Melugin, showed a large group crossing from the Mexico side of the border into the U.S. as a large white bus appeared to wait for them.
The one-minute clip showed the female Army officer standing by as the horde shuffled onto private property Monday morning.
She’s said to have done so at the direction of the federal government.
According to the Texas National Guard confirmed the female seen opening the gate in the video was not a Texas soldier or a Texas National Guard member. (1500 active duty have been deployed to the border areas to help facilitate the influx into the country.)
OBSERVATION – SMH – violating her oath to defend this country. There is absolutely no reason to open a locked gate, other than to deliberately allow invaders in and onto waiting busses.
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Heritage Foundation map of Biden’s illegal alien movements inside the US interior.
In December 2022 Heritage Foundation released a study tracking the movement of illegal aliens from their NGO launching point to destinations across the United States.
According to Heritage, of the 52 congressional districts with the highest density of devices, 71% were Republican congressional districts. Texas had the highest density of illegals followed by Oklahoma.
OBSERVATION – Interesting study. What has to occur is that these illegals some how get the credentials to enable them to vote. That means proof of citizenship. They currently do not possess such credentials. However, a blanket amnesty plan by Biden prior to the 2024 elections could change that in a heart beat, creating over 6 million new ‘democrat’ voters. Hard for me to fathom such a move - my normalcy bias gets in the way. But given all the other actions by the biden regime, plus the rumblings from his minions for such a policy, it cannot be ruled out.
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Observers are noting that the tsunami hasn’t hit the border yet, though numbers of crossings have been on the increase since the cessation of Title 42. Some associate it with the human traffickers assessing the impact of new rules. The tide won’t be stopped in the long run.
China –
See Japan below.
China also sending more coast guard ships into Philippine waters to challenge sovergnity over areas it declares as its own.
North/South Korea –
Recent satellite photos indicate that NK is preparing to have another big military parade in the near future.
Japan –
A People’s Liberation Army Navy surface action group is continuing its circumnavigation of Japan ahead of the annual G-7 summit later this month in Hiroshima.
The surface action group – which includes cruiser CNS Lhasa (102), destroyer CNS Guiyang (119), frigate CNS Zaozhuang (542) and fleet oiler CNS Taihu (889) – was sighted at midnight on Thursday sailing southwest in an area 56 miles east of Sumisu Island, part of the Izu Island chain that lies south of Japan’s capital of Tokyo. The SAG then sailed west between Sumisu Island and the island of Tori-Shima, according to the Joint Staff Office of Japan’s Ministry of Defense. The group previously transited northeast through the Tsushima Strait on April 30 and northeast through La Pérouse Strait, which separates Hokkaido from Russia’s Sakhalin Island, on May 6. Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer JS Suzunami (DD-114) shadowed the PLAN ships, according to the release.
The movement of the PLAN ships comes ahead of the G-7 summit scheduled for May 19 through 21 in Hiroshima, Japan. Chinese media said the movement was a message to Japan following various remarks by Japan’s leaders about Taiwan.
OBSERVATION – Typical ham handed aggressive actions by China designed to try to intimidate others in the region. However, China has stirred up Japan into accelerating its own military buildup and poses to counter Chinese actions in the region should things get hot.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
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Russian parliament member and former General of the Russian army, Viktor Sobolev, says that any PMC (mercenary company) in Russia is illegal, demanding anyone joining Wagner or any other PMC to face 15 years in prison.
Members of Wagner posted a video in reply, double dog daring Sobolev to try and saying they will return and deal with him later. The Wagner – MoD fight is becoming more open to the Russian people.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
The Kremlin has reportedly banned high-ranking officials from resigning during the war in Ukraine, likely in an attempt to maintain stability within domestic security organs, government bodies, and the Russian military command.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s - 70s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Kyiv endured one of the largest missile attacks of the war, but Russia was unable to get any missiles past the Ukraine Air Defense. Ukraine reports downing-
- 6x Kh-47M2 Kinzhal (launched from MiG-31K) – the reported “hypersonic” missiles
- 9x 3M54-1 Kalibr
- 3x S-400
- 6x Shahed 131/136
- 3 drones
Russian officials reported that they had blasted the maximum amount of missiles possible for a short period of time.
Russia also claims it targeted a Patriot battery, but reports on the ground deny the claim. NOTE – a lot of propaganda on both sides, taking out Patriot batteries is very high on Russia’s new target list.
Bakhmut pocket, Ukraine forces reportedly made more gains on the northern and southern margins of the pocket. If recent reports hold true, the Russian northern and southern pincers around Bakhmut have essentially collapsed. Wagner continued its assault on western Bakhumt.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka has died off significantly leaving sporadic artillery fire.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Ukraine reportedly destroyed the final Russian group trapped in a pocket south of Ivanivske after it was encircled (South of Bakhmut). If confirmed, the Russian southern pincer is in danger of complete collapse toward the east.
On the northern pincer around Bakhmut, according Prigozhin Wagner mercenaries have taken position along the water reservoirs north of Bakhmut. If true then it means that Wagner was forced to either spend their reserves for that undertaking or to redeploy out of Bakhmut.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Ukraine’s Intel states that at least 152,000 Russian troops occupy the south of Ukraine, namely the Zaporizhzhia & Kherson oblasts.
Explosions reported in Tokmak at a Russian facility (undetermined nature)
Partisan Resistance ——
Representative of occupation authorities in parts of Luhansk region Ihor Kornet was wounded as result of explosion
OUTLOOK –
Expect heavy doses of propaganda, psyops and general confusion as the war transitions to Ukraine and the offensive. I don’t expect the ground component of the offensive to start for another two weeks. In the mean time I expect to see a lot of probing on the ground and Ukraine strategic strikes to shape the battlefield, and the location of those strikes can tip off where the focus of the offensive may be.
Russia’s resurgent missile/drone attacks continue, but when one looks at the numbers it is clear that the actual numbers overall are way down. This recent attack focused on Kyiv and the success of Kyiv ADA was impressive. Russian has to expend a lot of missiles/drones with the hope that a few will make it through. This only hits their supplies, yielding fewer for future attacks
Action around Bakhmut – in addition to being a Wagner/MoD soap opera – shows signs that Ukraine has the possibility of encircling Wagner forces in the rubble of the city. Deliberate actions by the regular Russian forces to punish Wagner? Interesting concept. However, Russia may soon find it has been sucked into a major trap and loose 9 months worth of effort in a matter of days.
Moldova/Transnistria -
The Republic of Moldova is about to leave the Russian-dominated “Commonwealth of Independent States” (CIS). first step, the withdrawal from the CIS assembly, has already been done. The next step is the formal termination of membership.
The main reason is Russia’s ongoing support of so-called Transnistria, which is currently occupying Moldovan territory in the eastern margin of the country.
Belarus -
Lukashenko appeared in public for the first time since May 9. He visited the Central Command Post of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces. He only stayed there for about an hour. After that, he returned to Astrashytski Haradok (his residence).