Economy –
In a recent interview, Yellen admits she plans to default on the debt so she can keep spending on “clean energy.”
OBSERVATION – Priorities.
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The U.S. Federal Reserve has revealed that 722 banks reported unrealized losses exceeding 50% of their capital at the end of the third quarter of 2022. “Rising interest rates are creating significant unrealized losses in investment securities and in some cases depressing tangible equity,” according to the Fed’s Division of Supervision and Regulation.
722 Banks Reported Unrealized Losses of More Than 50% of Capital The U.S. Federal Reserve has revealed in a board presentation by the Division of Supervision and Regulation that 722 banks reported unrealized losses exceeding 50% of their capital at the end of the third quarter of 2022. The presentation, released to the public in April, is dated Feb. 14. It highlights the impact of raising interest rates on certain banks and the Fed’s supervisory approach to address issues at these banks.
“Rising interest rates are creating significant unrealized losses in investment securities and in some cases depressing tangible equity,” the Fed presentation states. “As interest rates increase, banks with large market value losses could experience increased financial and risk management challenges.”
OBSERVATION – We haven’t seen the end of the banking crisis, as the fed continues to raise rates and the economy crumbles into a recession.
Illegal Immigration –
According to Customs and Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz, CBP made 26,382 apprehensions and had 7,399 “gotaways” in the last 72 hours. The 8,794 apprehensions per day during this 72-hour period is a jump from the average of 7,700 apprehensions per day, and the Biden administration estimates there could be 13,000 border crossings per day after Title 42 ends this week.
OBSERVATION – Will this be the spark that ignites border violence? 13 K crossings is likely an underestimate and the numbers of ‘gotaways’ will skyrocket as there are not enough border agents to handle all of this.
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US military assigned to assist the border patrol will be doing paperwork and data entry – not actually interdicting illegals.
Texas OTOH is deploying national guard to the border to interdict illegals. This will bring a fed/state conflict to the forefront. However, TX has enacted legislation that creates a crime for illegals for being here illegally that looks to go around the fed govt supremacy on immigration control.
OBSERVATION – TX is the only border state that is Red, with CA, AZ and NM all being blue. Watch the blue states to see how hard they are being impacted once the border is fully unlocked.
North/South Korea –
SK – See Japan linking radars
Japan –
(Reuters) - Japanese and South Korean defence authorities are set to agree early next month to link their radars via a U.S. system to share real-time information on North Korea’s ballistic missiles, a person with knowledge of the matter said on Tuesday. Japan and South Korea are independently linked to the United States’ radar systems but not to each others’.
OBSERVATION – Unintended consequences. Aggressive behavior by China and NK are driving formerly antagonistic nations to set aside historical differences and uniting against a common threat.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
In Moscow, the annual Victory day parade was expected by many to be underwhelming due to the war in Ukraine. The degree that it was underwhelming to be underwhelming shocked observers. Only ONE tank paraded – a T-34 tank. Only a handful of APCs, most of the vehicles were cargo trucks. The total lack of the traditional display of Russian military might strongly indicates that damage done to the Russian military as a result of the Ukraine war.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting levels at Bakhmut remain high, with most of the fighting along the southern margin of the salient as Russian forces try to close off the H-32 highway lifeline for Ukraine.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka and areas west of Donetsk continues at reduced levels.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
OUTLOOK –
Still digesting the Russian May 9th “parade”. If anything, it undermined putin’s efforts to depict the war as being successfully fought and that Russian is a massive military power. Simply put, it was an embarrassment to putin and Russia.
With the target date of May 9th now past, the question is how much effort will continue to be made to seize Bakhmut? Wagner may still view the city as a jewel in its crown to capture, but the Russian military is increasingly viewing it as a boat anchor and a black hole that is sucking up scarce resources needed to counter a Ukrainian offensive.
Much discussion taking place over Russia’s massive entrenchments and fortification in Zaporizhizhia Oblast designed to stop the Ukrainian drive on Crimea. Many are saying they will deny Ukraine the ability to cut through the Russian front lines and achieve its goals. I think these folks are forgetting a few key principles that this war has repeatedly demonistrated.
1) The poor quality of the Russian soldier – In the retreats from northern Ukraine and the defeat in the Kharkiv offensive, they turned and ran, with few units doing any kind of effective rear guard action
The Kherson offensive was the only one where it was apparent that they staged an organize withdrawal and that only at the allowance of Ukraine, who obtained their objective with minimal loss of units and equipment.
2) Very poor Russian communications and logistics. You put in an obstacle, you have better be prepared to defend it. Poor coordination and comms between major Russian commands could permit Ukraine to split a unit boundry, freezing up both sides actions while it digs deep into rear areas.
Russia logistics rely heavily upon rail, and those lines are well within Ukraine artillery / missile range.
3) Russia is having to defend a long front. Ukraine is defending at home and can decisively target which portion of the front to strike, leaving Russia scrambling to place reserve forces (which are very limited) into blocking positions.
4) Ukraine has been very resourceful and creative in their actions against Russia. In Kharkiv the army displayed excellent combined arms operations. This displays a far better trained army than Russia has.
Time will tell.
Israel –
Overnight Israel launched what they called “Operation Shield and Arrow” – an effort to target the senior leadership of PIJ and other radical Islamic groups in Gaza and the West Bank. Three senior members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad in the Gaza Strip were killed and 10 sites belonging to PIJ also hit. Israel said it had launched the operation targeting militants who posed an imminent threat to its citizens.
Israel is now expecting a heavy barrage of rockets from Gaza into southern Israel .
OBSERVATION – PIJ will likely respond, uncertain just how much support Hamas will give them. Hamas considers in many ways that PIJ is a challenge to their leadership and may just let them hang on their own rope. Hamas knows that Israel will pound them twice as hard being the defacto leadership in Gaza.
**
Hamas may be planning to “stage a coup” against the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank, a Palestinian official in Ramallah warned on Monday.
The warning came amid an increase in Hamas terror activities in the West Bank and ongoing incitement by the Islamist group against the PA and its security forces.
The official further said that he does not rule out the possibility that Hamas may try to stage “another coup” in the West Bank, similar to the one it carried out in the Gaza Strip in 2007. Then, Hamas seized control of the entire Gaza Strip after killing dozens of its rivals in the ruling faction of Fatah and overthrowing the PA.
OBSERVATION - I’ve already posted on several occasions the push by Hamas to replace the PA in the West Bank region. There has been an overall trend of Islamic radicalization over the past few years, fueled and funded in part by Iran who sees the PA as weak against Israel. Goal is to place hostile Islamic agencies and operational areas in the West Bank to compliment Gaza, Lebanon and Syrian based operations.
Syria -
The Arab League on Sunday welcomed back Syria’s government after a more than decade-long suspension, AFP reported. The pan-Arab bloc froze Syria’s membership in November 2011 over the bloody government crackdown on protesters. “Government delegations from the Syrian Arab Republic will resume their participation in Arab League meetings” starting Sunday, said a unanimous decision by the group’s foreign ministers on Sunday.
OBSERVATION – This may cause Israel to recalibrate some of its actions against Hezbollah/Iranian targets in Syria as well as complicate the Abrahamic Accords efforts to normalize relations with some Gulf states.
The press needs to STOP using the language of corrupt Homeland thugs and use words that make sense. For example, "According to Customs and Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz, CBP made 26,382 apprehensions - 26,382 of these illegals were 'processed' and released into the United States."
"Apprehensions' does NOT capture the 'catch and release' reality of Biden and his goons.
Not including a lot of my commentary today. Lots on my plate. But for those who’ve followed, you pretty much know what it means.
Economy –
Flooding in the San Joaquin Valley from Tulare Lake has caused potentially billions of dollars in crop losses. Meanwhile, farm production is down up to 10% in some counties in the Tulare Lake basin and Central Coast of California. Processing tomatoes, leafy greens, and strawberries are expected to take a hit, and dairies have been impacted by flooding. California produces about 90% of processing tomatoes used in the U.S. and more than one-quarter of the world’s supply. (FO)
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April’s inflation report is out - core inflation (CPI less food and energy) remains elevated at 5.5% YoY, much higher than The Fed’s target rate of 2%. US real average weekly wage growth is negative again at -1.1% YoY, negative growth for the 25th straight month.
Turns out that core inflation is higher than overall inflation. 4.9% YoY compared to core of 5.5% YoY.
OBSERVATION – Mixed bag, but forecasts for summer are not bright and too many other factors to sit back and relax. Consider the damage done to the economy just to get it to this rate, let alone what will happen if the Fed continues to push for its 2% target rate using only prime rate increases.
**
Biden says he will consider pursuing the legal standing of the use of the 14th amendment in debt ceiling situations at a later date but that it’s not suitable now.
OBSERVATION - there is evidence that there may be a limited extension of the ceiling to permit more negotiations – though biden has largely been staking out a position of no compromises. Dems are likely feeling the pressure given that the house has put forth a bill and the senate refuses to take it up.
CW2/Domestic violence –
In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee Thursday, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines for the first time mentioned the creation of the Foreign Malign Influence Center, or FMIC. “Congress put into law that we should establish a Foreign Malign Influence Center in the intelligence community; we have stood that up,” Haines said, referring to legislation passed last year. “It encompasses our election threat work, essentially looking at foreign influence and interference in elections, but it also deals with disinformation more generally.”
OBSERVATION - Mission is essentially the same as the now defunct DHS Disinformation Governance Board. Designed to silence any opinion contrary to the regime’s desired narrative.
RELATED - Through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), America First Legal (AFL) has obtained files that show that DHS’s Office of Terrorism and Violence Prevention, instead of devoting its time and attention to tracking and impeding the activities of actual terrorists, is focusing on getting you to inform for them about pro-life “suburban moms” and your “old friend from high school” who doubts the Leftist establishment line. Yes, it’s just like the Stasi and the Gestapo and the KGB, except this time, your tax dollars are paying for it.
OBSERVATION – The regime / deep state is in a way preparing for and conducting war against the citizens of the US. This is exactly the kind of intel collection the Stazi and KGB et al participated in during the Cold War era – something that you young’ins are not being taught today. History repeats and consequences will be ugly.
Wuhan Plandemic -
Biden issued an executive order yesterday lifting COVID-19 vaccination requirements for federal workers and contractors, which will take effect on Friday, 12 May. President Biden also issued a proclamation lifting vaccination requirements for international travelers entering the United States
POLITICAL FRONT –
This is such a dumpster fire I’ll only note that the chaos will get worse, not better When I have more time I’ll dissect issues, for now, follow other FR threads.
Illegal Immigration –
Thousands are already pouring into towns like El Paso and other border cities even before Title 42 expires. It will be something of a magnitude never seen before.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
Commentators continue to not how subdued the May 9th ‘celebration’ was.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s - 70s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting levels at Bakhmut remain high, however, some interesting developments on the southwestern portion of the salient. Ukraine launched a limited counter attack along the front line 3 km wide and penetrated 2.6 km deep. The 72nd brigade of the Russian Federation was defeated, the 6th and 8th companies of this brigade, military equipment were actually destroyed, as well as one of Wagner’s assault units.
Prigozhin’s report about the escape of the 72nd separate motorized rifle brigade of the Soviet Union from near Bakhmut where he stated Wagner lost 500 men securing the terrain only to lose it.
Ukraine has also executed successful limited counter attacks in other sectors.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka and areas west of Donetsk continues at reduced levels.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Russia is also continuing missile/drone attacks across Ukraine – though at very low levels.
OUTLOOK –
Bakhmut will continue to be the hot spot in the fight, but for how much longer. The Wagner demand for more ammo and support was in regards to obtaining the May 9th deadline – which is now past and no longer a leverage.
However, the destruction of the Russian 72d Bde is important as it gives us a view to what to expect during a Ukrainian offensive. The 72d was part of mobilization last year, and was designated to be an ‘elite’ unit given more training and better weapons and equipment. A Russia brigade normally has several thousand soldiers, though it is uncertain how close to that level this brigade was. I would suspect it was one of the reserve forces Russia was trying to maintain to exploit either success or counter any offensive. Many reports have had these units filling in gaps, freeing Wagner forces to concentrate on Bahkmut proper.
Videos posted by both Ukraine and Russia show Ukraine forces effectively using combined arms tactics of tanks and infantry mutually supporting each other tearing through the Russian lines and literally sending Russian soldiers running in the other direction for their lives. The collapse of this Brigade does not bode well for Russian defenses in other sectors. It shows that Ukraine combined arms is more than a match for Russian defenses. How this will apply to other sectors, and in particular the focus of the offensive is yet to be seen.
Pakistan –
Violent protests erupted across Pakistan after the arrest of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan on May 9. These protests targeted Pakistani military facilities and institutions across Pakistan. Protesters stormed the Pakistani Army’s General Headquarters in Rawalpindi and the regional parliament building for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province in Peshawar. Protesters also burned the IV Corps commander’s residence inside the military cantonment in Lahore. Protests against the Pakistani military are uncommon and represent a decline in public trust in the Pakistani military and state institutions.
Islamabad High Court declares Imran Khan’s arrest lawful, and he is already facing trial today.
OBSERVATION – Increasing instability in a nuclear power edging progressively towards Islamic radicalism. Not a good thing.
Israel –
After an uncharacteristic delay in response, Islamic groups in Gaza have unleashed over 100 rockets into Israel, and Israel has been quick to launch counter strikes. Rockets are in retaliation for the strike that took out several key PIJ leaders.
OBSERVATION - The delay was likely due to PIJ and other Islamic elements trying to relocate command centers prior to launching the rockets. Israel likely had those alternative command posts identified though. This next cycle will be vicious as Israel looks to eliminate the PIJ and fellow Islamic elements before turning towards directly confronting Iran / Hezbollah.
Turkey -
Erdogan announces 45% wage hike for 700,000 public workers five days ahead of the elections.
An unprecedented 51% of absentee ballots have been turned in for counting.
This election may become a barn burner folks.