Quiet weekend news wise. Doesn’t imply that next week will follow suit.
WEF adherent now King Charles III was officially crowned yesterday.
Economy –
Crude oil inventories have fallen below the five-year average for the first time this year. Last week, implied gasoline demand rose by 992 thousand barrels per day (kb/d) w/w to a 15-month high of 9.511mb/d, taking the month-to-date y/y increase. Despite this positive inventory data, WTI prices have declined from $83.26 per barrel on April 12 to $68.85 on May 3 while Brent prices have declined from $87.33 to $72.54 per barrel over the timeframe.
Normally, U.S. inventories and oil prices have a strong inverse relationship, with falling inventories pushing prices higher while rising inventories have the opposite effect.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Why-Oil-Prices-Are-Plunging-Despite-Falling-Inventories.html
OBSERVATION – However, at least in my corner of the Redoubt, gas and diesel prices have continued to climb. Some oil analysts note that these “tend to be temporary and come at times when prices are moved primarily by other oil market fundamentals, expectations, broader asset markets and financial flows.” In otherwords, the market will be correcting itself to reflect higher per barrel prices soon equating to higher prices at the gas pumps.
Biden / Harris watch –
Laughable – harris put in charge of the regime’s AI initiative.
CW2/Domestic violence –
The push to make Jordan Neely a new saint progressed to leftists disrupting NYC subway service on Saturday. Protestors blocked trains and assaulted police protesting his death.
OBSERVATION – This really doesn’t help their cause. Feed back I’ve read indicates your average New Yorker has little sympathy for Neely because violence on the subways is far too common and people are getting fed up. Ravid leftists like AOC continue to call it murder and vigilantism – both are non applicable terms and your average subway rider sees that difference too.
ADDITIONALLY – The marine corps doxed the individual who had Neely in the choke hold. The new woke Marines – sticking a knife in the back of a fellow Marine – show just how far the leadership of the military, and the Marines in particular – has fallen.
**
A gunman shot and killed eight people and wounded at least seven others at a busy mall north of Dallas on Saturday, police said.
The gunman, whom authorities said they think acted alone and whose motive was not yet known, was killed by a police officer after he began firing outside of the Allen Premium Outlets mall at 3:36 p.m. local time in Allen, Texas, the city’s police chief Brian Harvey said at a press conference.
The gunman was Hispanic and reportedly had gang related tatoos on his hands. This tatoo, a copy of the City of Dallas logo is one of many utilized by members of the Dallas Tango Blast prision gang. He reportedly lived in Dallas with his parents. They didn’t speak English. Neighbors had to have to translate.
OBSERVATION – Right in line with increasing calls for gun control and a semi-auto rifle ban by democrats, the number of shootings like this are on the rise. Could be conformation bias, but at this stage of the conspiracy theory cycle my thoughts go to triggered responses by the regime to try to mold public perception into a favorable position to impose these gun bans. No info on this dead thug’s immigration status or if he obtained the AR-15 legally (doubtful because to become a Tango Blast – you have to go thru initiation rites in prison – and most likely a felony record, making gun ownership illegal.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Countdown continues for a June 1 deadline for the national debt. Finally McConnell is on record stating that the bill must include significant cuts to govt spending.
Illegal Immigration –
May 11 is on track to be the most massive day of illegals crossing the border ever.
Meanwhile, in Panama, bus convoys are taking immigrants northward into Mexico. Reports are that they are being funded in part by the US govt or US NGOs.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
Prigozhin, in a new statement, said an agreement has been reached to supply more ammunition to Wagner forces. A withdrawal from Bakhmut therefore seems out of the question.
NOTE – Political ploy to leverage more resources away from regular Russian forces. However, in this instance, Prigozhin backed his threat up with a decrease in attacks. This may well backfire since that gave Ukrainian defenders a break to better prepare the defensive positions for new attacks.
Logistics –
Wildfires reached gunpowder warehouses in Pervovamyskiy town of Sverdlovsk region of Russia. 11 warehouses have been reportedly engulfed in flames.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting levels at Bakhmut have picked up following a second overnight incendiary bomb attack over most of the western half of the city not controlled by Russia. Prigozhin reportedly has gotten the ammo he has demanded, so Wagner pullout unlikely at this time.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka and areas west of Donetsk continues at reduced levels.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
About 10 Ukranian drones attacked the Sevastopol region, with Russia claiming all were shot down, though there were reports of larger explosions at several areas along the coast.
OUTLOOK –
Russia to continue to pressure Ukranian defenses at Bakhmut, but no breakout is anticipated. Again, indicators suggest that Russia is trying to wrap up operations there so resources can be allocated to defense against the anticipated Ukrainian offensive.
The knife fight between Wagner and the MoD may have gotten swayed in Wagner’s favor by the rapid response from Chechen fighters alledged willingness to step in an replace it at Bakhmut. The MoD may have saw their combined propaganda and sway with putin a threat and decided to provide minimal support. This will not be the last time Prigozhin will whine about lack of support.
Fears of the Ukraine offensive have triggered Russian supporters in the south to start fleeing to Crimea and to Russia. The Kerch Bridge as been closed off an on due to suspected threats. Roads are reported to be clogged with those fleeing - likely interfering with Russian logistical activity.
Increased Ukraine drone attacks are something new. Uncomplicated, they serve to freeze Russian operations out of Crimea and cause them to divert ADA assest from the front to protect these deeper rear areas. With a sudden influx of Mig -29s from NATO supporters, Ukraine has the potential to locally gain air superiority for their offensive.
Europe / NATO General –
Ministry of National Defense of Romania - On Friday May 5th, a L410 TURBOLET aircraft belonging to the Polish Border Guard, was intercepted at 60 km East from Romania’s airspace, by a Russian Sukhoi Su-35 fighter plane, while performing with Romanian Border Police a Frontex routine patrol mission
OBSERVATION – Not an uncommon action by Russia. However, they are toeing the line due to the proximity to Romanian air space in this intercept.
Israel –
More pro- and con – judicial reform protests contining.
Iran –
Thermobaric warheads have been integrated into Iranian missiles, especially models that Hezbollah have. The effort to get them to Hezbollah is increasing.
Misc of Note –
Researchers who recently published their work in the Journal of Sexual Medicine examined the prevalence and efficacy of “gender-affirming” mental healthcare provided to trans-identified children.
Here were the results:
3,754 TGD adolescents and 6,603 cisgender siblings were included. TGD adolescents were more likely to have a mental health diagnosis (OR 5.45, 95% CI [4.77-6.24]), use more mental healthcare services (IRR 2.22; 95% CI [2.00-2.46]), and be prescribed more psychotropic medications (IRR = 2.57; 95% CI [2.36-2.80]) compared to siblings.
More diagnoses, more therapy, more drugs.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34247956/
OBSERVATION – Noting this aspect of the transgender craziness here as something we need to know. This so called reassignment surgery and chemical treatment doesn’t improve the mental situation – it makes it worse.
If the killer had been MAGA everything about him would have been leaked to the Washington Post before blood on the shopping center's floor was dry... and EVERY liberal Sunday news show would have opened with the story.
Factors concerning the weakness and potential crash of smaller banks only to be snatched up by the WEF compliant big banks float on the edge of conspiracy theory. But the results so far are the same. Banks like JP Morgan are expanding while the FED and the treasury dept take the hit for the losses at those banks. Makes unification under a one world easier.
**
World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus announced the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency the organization declared on 30 January 2020.
OBSERVATION - Wuhan is no longer a useful tool as the majority of the globe has cast aside their associated health emergencies. However, it did serve a useful purpose in “creating” a crisis that the WHO, as a global entity, could use to bring much of the world under its control. This effort to now expand the WHO’s power is expected to grow as efforts to place all signatory nations under its direct control for the next ‘health emergency’. By the nature of the wording as well as how leftist ‘health’ organizations use the terms – this could include the health emergency of gun violence.
Economy –
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen continued to warn that a failure to raise the US’s debt ceiling could have dire consequences.
“It’s Congress’s job to do this. If they fail to do it, we will have an economic and financial catastrophe that will be of our own making,” she said.
In an interview with ABC News on Sunday Yellen said debt ceiling negotiations should not take place “with a gun to the head of the American people.”
OBSERVATION – Useful idiot, the gist is that the republicans are not doing anything – which by leftist definition means they are not folding to the regime’s demands.
Last month the House of Representatives passed a bill to raise the ceiling, currently roughly equal to 120% of the country’s annual economic output, but included in the bill sweeping spending cuts over the next decade.
President Biden wants Congress to agree to raise the debt ceiling, with no conditions. President Biden has said he will not negotiate over the increase and will discuss budget cuts after the issue is resolved.
Biden is the one holding the gun to the head of the American people.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Media claiming that the 33 year-old mall shooter Mauricio Garcia is a neo-Nazi white supremacist. He reportedly shared white supremacist content on social media and wore a patch saying RWDS, which police believe stands for “Right Wing Death Squad”
Shooter was removed from Army over ‘mental health concerns,’ suspected of ‘right-wing extremist ideology’.
OBSERVATION – A Hispanic gang banger a “white supremacist”? Inquiring minds want to know the real story.
**
Hispanic man deliberately drove into a crowd of migrants(?) killing at least 7, 10 injured. Details on the driver pending, but hospital photo shows him all tatted up and potentially MS-13 related(?).
**
The rest of the video from the incident in the subway shows that Jordan Neely was not dead when Daniel Penny let go of him. The marine even put him in a recovery position. And riders in the car thanking him and the others who responded for their actions.
OBSERVATION - This throws the entire narrative that Penny “murdered” or “lynched” Neely into doubt. This is also why among New Yorkers this isn’t gathering more traction – they face this kind of violence daily on the subway.
Wuhan Plandemic -
Chelsea Clinton — via the Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI) — along with the World Health Organization (WHO), UNICEF and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation launched an initiative called “The Big Catch-up.”
“The Big Catch-up” will last 18 months and, according to Clinton, aims to become “the largest childhood immunization effort ever,” Fortune reported. Clinton, who serves as vice chair of CHAI, last week presented the initiative at Fortune’s Brainstorm Health Conference in Marina del Rey, California.
One day earlier, under the auspices of World Immunization Week, the WHO introduced “The Big Catch-up,” describing it as a “targeted global effort to boost vaccination among children following declines driven by the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Clinton further has indicated that children will be forced to take the jab regardless of what their parents say.
OBSERVATION - Ah yes, the medical tyranny continues even though the WHO has declared an end to the emergency. It is not about the disease, it is all about power. IMHO there is also an ulterior motive – there is something in the jab that is designed not to be good for humanity, thus the push for all to be jabbed.
Illegal Immigration –
Drown video shown on Fox shows an enormous line of hundreds of migrants who just crossed illegally into Brownsville, TX yesterday. A large majority of them are single adults of military age with very few women and no children.
OBSERVATION – The tsunami is building. If it hits with the force some are fearing, there could be violence.
**
NYC Mayor Adams announcing that he is shipping illegals out of the city to the suburbs as he claims he doesn’t have the resources to handle them.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
Russia is planning for a much smaller May 9th celebration of its victory over Germany. Observers note that fewer combat vehicles and more cargo trucks being used.
RUMINT-
Wagner’s Prigozhin & Chechen leader Kadyrov may have compelled Russia’s theater commander in Ukraine, Gen Gerasimov, to resume artillery ammunition distribution to Wagner forces in Bakhmut despite the latter’s desired de-prioritization of that effort.
Such actions would indicate that Gerasimov and possibly Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu lack the ability to command Prigozhin and Kadyrov as subordinates but must instead negotiate with them as peers.
Gerasimov’s apparent need to negotiate with subordinate commanders and those commanders’ ability to force his hand suggests that chain of command problems are significantly impacting the Russian military’s ability to conduct coherent theater-wide operations.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Forces report that they shot down 100%, of the 35 of the Shahed Kamikaze Drones that Russia fired at Ukraine overnight. Russian Tu-22M3 bombers also launched 8 missiles at Odesa (presumably, Kh-22).
Fighting levels at Bakhmut have intensified further overnight now that Wagner apparently has gotten the ammo it demanded. It reportedly made some gains in the city. Second factor in the increased tempo is the overarching desire to capture the city by May 9th (Russian Victory Day over Nazi Germany). Additional fighting increased on the southern edge of salient as Russian forces attempt to cut off the H-32 highway into town.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka and areas west of Donetsk continues at reduced levels.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
OUTLOOK –
Russia to continue to pressure Ukranian defenses at Bakhmut, and we may see intensifying attacks as Russia, and in particular Wagner, intensify their attacks in an effort to secure the town by at least May 10th (as directed). For Wagner, it would be another bargaining chip in their efforts to direct the war to their political benefit and may even provide a greater platform to even dethrone putin.
This episode with Wagner may also indicate that Russia has deligated responsibilities for different sectors of the front in Ukraine to various Russian commanders while the power of the theater commander continues to wane. This will create the competition for resources that hamstrung the initial offensive when different CAAs were given different sectors and objectives. This will further hurt coordination of efforts between those commanders to respond in a timely manner to the Ukrainian drive.
Russia is also conducting more, smaller missile/drone attacks it what appears to be an effort to disrupt the Ukrainian preparations for their offensive. Russia’s OODA loop for targeting is poor, but Ukraine needs to be smart and avoid concentrating forces, equipment and munitions where they could be hit with a lucky shot.
Weather forecasts still show drying conditions thru the end of May. That is the real driver as to the earliest Ukraine can kick off its attack.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Transnistria officials calling on Russia to provide more “peace keepers”.
Syria -
The Arab League on Sunday welcomed back Syria’s government after a more than decade-long suspension, AFP reported. The pan-Arab bloc froze Syria’s membership in November 2011 over the bloody government crackdown on protesters. “Government delegations from the Syrian Arab Republic will resume their participation in Arab League meetings” starting Sunday, said a unanimous decision by the group’s foreign ministers on Sunday.
OBSERVATION – This may cause Israel to recalibrate some of its actions against Hezbollah/Iranian targets in Syria as well as complicate the Abrahamic Accords efforts to normalize relations with some Gulf states.
Factors concerning the weakness and potential crash of smaller banks only to be snatched up by the WEF compliant big banks float on the edge of conspiracy theory. But the results so far are the same. Banks like JP Morgan are expanding while the FED and the treasury dept take the hit for the losses at those banks. Makes unification under a one world easier.
**
World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus announced the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency the organization declared on 30 January 2020.
OBSERVATION - Wuhan is no longer a useful tool as the majority of the globe has cast aside their associated health emergencies. However, it did serve a useful purpose in “creating” a crisis that the WHO, as a global entity, could use to bring much of the world under its control. This effort to now expand the WHO’s power is expected to grow as efforts to place all signatory nations under its direct control for the next ‘health emergency’. By the nature of the wording as well as how leftist ‘health’ organizations use the terms – this could include the health emergency of gun violence.
Economy –
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen continued to warn that a failure to raise the US’s debt ceiling could have dire consequences.
“It’s Congress’s job to do this. If they fail to do it, we will have an economic and financial catastrophe that will be of our own making,” she said.
In an interview with ABC News on Sunday Yellen said debt ceiling negotiations should not take place “with a gun to the head of the American people.”
OBSERVATION – Useful idiot, the gist is that the republicans are not doing anything – which by leftist definition means they are not folding to the regime’s demands.
Last month the House of Representatives passed a bill to raise the ceiling, currently roughly equal to 120% of the country’s annual economic output, but included in the bill sweeping spending cuts over the next decade.
President Biden wants Congress to agree to raise the debt ceiling, with no conditions. President Biden has said he will not negotiate over the increase and will discuss budget cuts after the issue is resolved.
Biden is the one holding the gun to the head of the American people.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Media claiming that the 33 year-old mall shooter Mauricio Garcia is a neo-Nazi white supremacist. He reportedly shared white supremacist content on social media and wore a patch saying RWDS, which police believe stands for “Right Wing Death Squad”
Shooter was removed from Army over ‘mental health concerns,’ suspected of ‘right-wing extremist ideology’.
OBSERVATION – A Hispanic gang banger a “white supremacist”? Inquiring minds want to know the real story.
**
Hispanic man deliberately drove into a crowd of migrants(?) killing at least 7, 10 injured. Details on the driver pending, but hospital photo shows him all tatted up and potentially MS-13 related(?).
**
The rest of the video from the incident in the subway shows that Jordan Neely was not dead when Daniel Penny let go of him. The marine even put him in a recovery position. And riders in the car thanking him and the others who responded for their actions.
OBSERVATION - This throws the entire narrative that Penny “murdered” or “lynched” Neely into doubt. This is also why among New Yorkers this isn’t gathering more traction – they face this kind of violence daily on the subway.
Wuhan Plandemic -
Chelsea Clinton — via the Clinton Health Access Initiative (CHAI) — along with the World Health Organization (WHO), UNICEF and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation launched an initiative called “The Big Catch-up.”
“The Big Catch-up” will last 18 months and, according to Clinton, aims to become “the largest childhood immunization effort ever,” Fortune reported. Clinton, who serves as vice chair of CHAI, last week presented the initiative at Fortune’s Brainstorm Health Conference in Marina del Rey, California.
One day earlier, under the auspices of World Immunization Week, the WHO introduced “The Big Catch-up,” describing it as a “targeted global effort to boost vaccination among children following declines driven by the COVID-19 pandemic.”
Clinton further has indicated that children will be forced to take the jab regardless of what their parents say.
OBSERVATION - Ah yes, the medical tyranny continues even though the WHO has declared an end to the emergency. It is not about the disease, it is all about power. IMHO there is also an ulterior motive – there is something in the jab that is designed not to be good for humanity, thus the push for all to be jabbed.
Illegal Immigration –
Drown video shown on Fox shows an enormous line of hundreds of migrants who just crossed illegally into Brownsville, TX yesterday. A large majority of them are single adults of military age with very few women and no children.
OBSERVATION – The tsunami is building. If it hits with the force some are fearing, there could be violence.
**
NYC Mayor Adams announcing that he is shipping illegals out of the city to the suburbs as he claims he doesn’t have the resources to handle them.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
Russia is planning for a much smaller May 9th celebration of its victory over Germany. Observers note that fewer combat vehicles and more cargo trucks being used.
RUMINT-
Wagner’s Prigozhin & Chechen leader Kadyrov may have compelled Russia’s theater commander in Ukraine, Gen Gerasimov, to resume artillery ammunition distribution to Wagner forces in Bakhmut despite the latter’s desired de-prioritization of that effort.
Such actions would indicate that Gerasimov and possibly Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu lack the ability to command Prigozhin and Kadyrov as subordinates but must instead negotiate with them as peers.
Gerasimov’s apparent need to negotiate with subordinate commanders and those commanders’ ability to force his hand suggests that chain of command problems are significantly impacting the Russian military’s ability to conduct coherent theater-wide operations.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Forces report that they shot down 100%, of the 35 of the Shahed Kamikaze Drones that Russia fired at Ukraine overnight. Russian Tu-22M3 bombers also launched 8 missiles at Odesa (presumably, Kh-22).
Fighting levels at Bakhmut have intensified further overnight now that Wagner apparently has gotten the ammo it demanded. It reportedly made some gains in the city. Second factor in the increased tempo is the overarching desire to capture the city by May 9th (Russian Victory Day over Nazi Germany). Additional fighting increased on the southern edge of salient as Russian forces attempt to cut off the H-32 highway into town.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka and areas west of Donetsk continues at reduced levels.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
OUTLOOK –
Russia to continue to pressure Ukranian defenses at Bakhmut, and we may see intensifying attacks as Russia, and in particular Wagner, intensify their attacks in an effort to secure the town by at least May 10th (as directed). For Wagner, it would be another bargaining chip in their efforts to direct the war to their political benefit and may even provide a greater platform to even dethrone putin.
This episode with Wagner may also indicate that Russia has deligated responsibilities for different sectors of the front in Ukraine to various Russian commanders while the power of the theater commander continues to wane. This will create the competition for resources that hamstrung the initial offensive when different CAAs were given different sectors and objectives. This will further hurt coordination of efforts between those commanders to respond in a timely manner to the Ukrainian drive.
Russia is also conducting more, smaller missile/drone attacks it what appears to be an effort to disrupt the Ukrainian preparations for their offensive. Russia’s OODA loop for targeting is poor, but Ukraine needs to be smart and avoid concentrating forces, equipment and munitions where they could be hit with a lucky shot.
Weather forecasts still show drying conditions thru the end of May. That is the real driver as to the earliest Ukraine can kick off its attack.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Transnistria officials calling on Russia to provide more “peace keepers”.
Syria -
The Arab League on Sunday welcomed back Syria’s government after a more than decade-long suspension, AFP reported. The pan-Arab bloc froze Syria’s membership in November 2011 over the bloody government crackdown on protesters. “Government delegations from the Syrian Arab Republic will resume their participation in Arab League meetings” starting Sunday, said a unanimous decision by the group’s foreign ministers on Sunday.
OBSERVATION – This may cause Israel to recalibrate some of its actions against Hezbollah/Iranian targets in Syria as well as complicate the Abrahamic Accords efforts to normalize relations with some Gulf states.